SB Nation - Thaddeus Lewis

The Coaching Carousel's Effect on BC 2010

Brian @ BCI — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:25:27 -0000

More photos » by Richard Shiro - AP

Virginia's Al Groh is one of three coaches who won't be roaming the sidelines against the Eagles next season. (AP Photo/Richard Shiro)

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Brian: We aren’t three full days past the end of the regular season in college football and the axe has already been dropped on three of Boston College’s 2010 opponents’ head coaches.

Meanwhile, down in College Park, Ralph Friedgen’s future remains uncertain. Looking at the 2010 schedule, here is the Eagles’ list of opponents, their head coaches, and their current tenure at their school:

Opponent	Head Coach	Years	W	L	T	Pct.
Notre Dame	TBD	0	0	0	0	.000
VIRGINIA	TBD	0	0	0	0	.000
@ FLORIDA STATE	Jimbo Fisher	0	0	0	0	.000
@ Syracuse	Doug Marrone	1	4	7	0	.364
CLEMSON	Dabo Swinney	2	12	7	0	.632
@ DUKE	David Cutcliffe	2	9	15	0	.375
@ NC STATE	Tom O'Brien	3	16	21	0	.432
Hofstra	Dave Cohen	4	18	27	0	.400
Kent State	Doug Martin	6	24	46	0	.343
MARYLAND	Ralph Friedgen	9	66	46	0	.589
@ WAKE FOREST	Jim Grobe	9	59	51	0	.536
VIRGINIA TECH	Frank Beamer	17	185	92	2	.663

With over half of BC’s opponents having coaching staffs with less than 3 years of experience at the program, this has to be a positive for the Eagles going into next season, no?

Jeff: I would have to agree with you that this is a positive for BC, at least as it pertains to our in conference games. Let's say Maryland decides to make a coaching change as well. Then the Eagles will play 3 conference games against new coaches plus Notre Dame. I will expect victories in all three of those games with the Virginia and Maryland home games certainly being the most winnable conference games of next season. The Notre Dame game I am a little less confident about though because won't their new coach come in and win 9 or 10 games and take them to a BCS game which will then get him a contract extension?

Brian: Perhaps. But Notre Dame likely will have to get to 9 or 10 wins without the services of Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate, who both might jump to the NFL draft. In addition, the Notre Dame defense has been terrible this year. I'm not sure how they turn around their defensive unit. Finally, the schedule is much less forgiving next year than it was this year.

Regardless, looking at these programs and the tenure of the head coaches at those schools, you have to be pleased with how the schedule is shaping up. Consider that the coaches at Hofstra and Kent State will be two of the more tenured coaching staffs on the Eagles 2010 schedule.

Jeff: This is the first time we've really talked about next year's schedule and the ACC slate looks awesome. Since we learned this year the importance of BC's home field advantage, having Clemson and Virginia Tech come to the Heights next year looks to be a huge advantage. In addition, Florida State is the only road game we'll have against a team that is bowl eligible this season. Despite Duke improving this year, they are still Duke and Thaddeus Lewis played his last game Saturday. Without Riley Skinner, traveling to Wake Forest does not appear to be a very high hurdle either.

Brian: The trip to Winston-Salem always seems to give the Eagles fits. Tom O'Brien should also have the Wolfpack improved from this year. And sleeping on Duke is a dangerous proposition (just ask Virginia, Maryland and NC State). That being said, three trips to the Research Triangle, a road trip down I-90 to play Syracuse and a trip to Tallahassee to play first year coach Jimbo Fisher seems like a much more manageable away schedule than this year's gauntlet that included trips to Death Valley, Lane Stadium and Notre Dame Stadium.

Unlike this year where the Eagles played nine bowl teams, BC will only face four bowl teams in 2010. Two (possible three?) of those teams will have new head coaches. Not exactly a murderer's row for next season. The turnover in the coaching staffs at Notre Dame, Virginia, Florida State and potentially Maryland all help make the schedule that much more manageable in 2010.

Wake Forest downs Duke, 45-34

MRickman84 — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 21:14:39 -0000

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In a fitting end to his career, Riley Skinner threw for a career high 391 yards and 5 touchdowns in route to a 45-34 win over Duke.

Full recap after the jump...

Plain and simple, this was a better team than their 5-7 record. And today really proved that. Skinner showed why he was one of the best, if not the best player in Wake Forest history with his career day. Wake started out in a shootout, with Duke setting the tone and the Deacs matching punch for punch.

The Deacs had too much firepower in the end, as Marshall Williams had 8 catches for 120 yards and a TD, finishing a truly stellar season. Devon Brown had 10 catches for 97 yards and 2 TDs and Chris Givens had 79 yards and a TD on 5 catches. Wake Forest fans have a lot to be excited for, as all three of these receivers will be returning next year.

This team deserved to make a bowl. It hurts because there were so many close games that just got away from them. A big part of that had to do with missed opportunities, but as only real life can play out, Alex Frye intercepted Thaddeus Lewis for a TD near the end of the 4th quarter. Frye, who was in the doghouse most of the year, sealed the win with the TD and gave the defense the big play they had been missing most of the season.

It's easy to play the what if game, but in the end, this senior class, coupled with the senior class from last year, was the most successful in Wake Forest history, and there is so much to thank them for. It is great to go out on a win and there is a lot to look forward to in the future.

Mountain West and their Road to the BCS: 11/13//09

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 05:30:28 -0000

by Mark Humphrey - AP

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Time to feature games of interest that will affect the possibility of the Mountain West getting into the BCS this year. These games will not include all the teams ahead of any MWC team, but will be games that the higher ranked team may lose and thus drop in the rankings All rankings listed are from the BCS.

TCU still controls their own destiny if they win out, but Utah could sneak in with a win and a Boise loss. As always absolute chaos is my goal in an effort to promote change.

Check the full slate of games below.

All times are eastern

No. 16 Utah @ No. 4 TCU (CBS College Sports, 7:30pm)

The twenty point spread is absurd in this game, and TCU should win but trust me this will be a close game.

MWC rooting interest: TCU, pains me to say as a Utah alum. However, as I grew up in Houston I have a fondness for TCU. If Utah some how manages a win coupled with a Boise loss the Utes should be going to a BCS game. Hard to believe, but they have about as good a shot as TCU going to the BCS title game.

Idaho @ No. 6 Boise State (ESPNU, 3:30pm)

Idaho was to be a challange but they have recently lost to Fresno and Nevada. Best story line is this game is the Idaho AD refusing to get on a plane that had Boise State colors, and then drove 90 miles to Spokane, WA to board a non-Boise State themed plane.

MWC rooting interest: Boise State, yes I said it. The reason being to try to force the BCS to take two non-AQ schools.

No. 7 Georgia Tech @ Duke (ESPN2, Noon)

Duke has a chance to be bowl eligible! Yes that is right, behind QB Thaddeous Lewis. Georgia Tech has too much power on offense with the Paul Johnso triple option.

MWC rooting interest: Duke, because a Ramling Wreck win keeps moving them up and possibly move them up and a dark horse BCS title team.

No. 2 Texas @ Baylor (FSN, Noon)

Without Rorbert Grrifin Baylor has no shot, plus Texas has been on a roll lately. This game will be a reminder of the old beat downs against Baylor.

MWC rooting interest: Baylor, but who are we kidding.

No. 3 Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN, 7pm)

Former Florida offensive coordinator --now head coach at Mississippi State Dan Mullen was able to hang with Florida, so there is no reason why they should not be able to hang with the Tide. Home field counts and that Mississippi State should be able to hang around.

MWC rooting interest: Mississippi State, this I think actually has legs for an upset. Alabama has had tough matchups against LSU and Tennessee, plus their offense has not been all that great.

No. 1 Florida @ South Carolina (CBS, 3:30pm)

The old ball coach is back against his old team and this is the chance for him maybe get a win over his former team. South Carolina has been up and down all year, and will need a great game to stay with Florida.

MWC rooting interest: South Carolina. Not likely but Florida has struggled just like Alabama, and with the SEC title game appearance lined up there could be a let down.

Deacon Dump 11/9: Ponder out for Saturday's game, big week for the soccer team

WakeJake — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:06:56 -0000

Not much to say today. Click through for some Monday reading...

Is Curry the one who got away? | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
"Aaron has had some really great flash plays, where he has just looked phenomenal, and then he has had some rookie errors that you would expect," coach Jim Mora said. "We're just looking for a week-to-week, down-to-down consistency out of him, and he's getting there."

ACC power rankings: Week 11 - College Football Nation - ESPN
8. Wake Forest (4-6, 2-4; LW: No. 9) -- If there’s one team in the conference that is better than its record indicates, this is it. The Deacs have the numbers they need everywhere but the scoreboard, and unfortunately for them, that’s where it counts. They get a break this week against an FSU team that will be missing starting quarterback Christian Ponder.

No. 4 Wake Forest Earns Top Seed at ACC Tournament - WAKE FOREST OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
No. 4 Wake Forest earned the top seed for the 2009 Atlantic Coast Conference Men's Soccer Tournament and will face either Clemson or Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, N.C.

What we learned in the ACC: Week 10 - College Football Nation - ESPN
2. Even the best quarterbacks can’t do it alone. Riley Skinner. Thaddeus Lewis. Christian Ponder. Three of the ACC’s most productive, efficient passers and leaders all lost this past weekend. It certainly wasn’t for lack of effort. Skinner couldn’t shake Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan. Lewis got tied up with UNC defensive end Robert Quinn. And Ponder threw as many interceptions (four) as he had all season. All three of them are still searching for bowl eligibility, but for seniors Skinner and Lewis, it’s their last chance at the postseason.

Are UNC, Duke really that much better than everyone else in basketball? – ACC Insider - Wilmington Star News - Wilmington, NC - Archive
"I think it’s really wide open," Wake Forest coach Dino Gaudio said. "I think anybody could win this league, and I don’t think that’s just coach-speak."

Wake Forest Deacons - CharlotteObserver.com
Best case scenario: With plenty of size, the Deacons will present problems for opponents, especially if they can find players to replace the scoring lost with the departure of guard Jeff Teague and forward James Johnson. Look for freshman Ari Stewart to make an early impact and for Aminu to emerge as one of the league's top players.

Yet another heartbreaker for Deacons : News-Record.com : Greensboro & the Triad's most trusted source for local news and analysis
"I think there was a time with our football program when there would be moral victories in losses," Grobe said. "There certainly aren't any moral victories right now."

Nick Friedell's Blog - Precious Time - ESPN Chicago
"I've been working for it," Johnson said. "But if they feel comfortable putting me in, then I'm going to have positive minutes and work my minutes as best I can. But if not, I'm going to cheer for my team and keep working hard."

Tyrus expecting a quick recovery | DailyHerald.com Blogs
With Thomas out, this appears to be a great chance to work rookie forward James Johnson into the rotation. Johnson has played in just one of five games so far, garbage time in the blowout loss at Boston. Before Saturday’s game, Johnson admitted it took him time to get comfortable with the plays and the defensive system, particularly at small forward. But now he feels he’s ready to play both forward spots. Coach Vinny Del Negro suggested Johnson will play the small forward when he does get in.

New Orleans Hornets' Chris Paul's motto: 'I hate losing more than I like winning' | New Orleans Hornets Central - - NOLA.com
"You know, it's funny. Everybody is saying I'm playing with this look on my face. Well, they must have just started watching me play yesterday. Because I've been like that. That's my normal thing. A guy like K.G. (Celtics forward Kevin Garnett) who doesn't smile during the game, people love that about him. But me, they want me smiling. That (unsmiling visage), it's been me since Day One." Paul last week succinctly summed up his persona and his passion in one sentence: "I hate losing more than I like winning."

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:42:51 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

2 months ago: LSU wide receiver Brandon LaFell (1) gets away from Louisiana-Lafayette linebacker Devon Lewis-Buchanan in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. LSU defeated Louisiana-Lafayette 31-3. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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• Even though they don't face off against each other, being on the same field could be enough to raise the gameplay of both Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy. Both are top five talents, but Suh is considered the better player by most.

One of the most disappointing players for me this season has been Oklahoma left tackle Trent Williams. He's showed he's a better player on the right side, which he played previously in his career. He could be given some trouble against Nebraska end Pierre Allen, a relentless player who doesn't quit until the whistle blows.

• Don't look now but Florida's Carlos Dunlap has four sacks in the last two games. He brutalized a bad Mississippi State team on Oct. 24 but has been pretty pedestrian this season. If he doesn't have a strong game against Vanderbilt, expect more dissenters to emerge.

• Pittsburgh quarterback Bill Stull has been gaining a good bit of attention as a draftable prospect. He's had an average career but is putting together a great season. If he can stay composed against Syracuse's front four, he could have another banner day.

• Entering the season, LSU wide receiver Brandon LaFell was considered the best senior wide receiver in the nation and a first round player. While the latter is still true, it's not a guarantee he gets taken in the first 32 picks. Alabama's cornerbacks, Kareem Jackson and Javier Arenas, are the best LSU will see this season. To improve his stock, LaFell needs to show he can beat physical coverage and make plays in the air.

• Penn State junior Stefen Wisniewski is arguably the best center in the nation. His signal calling will really be put to the test against Ohio State's experienced and crafty defensive line.

Against a very good Penn State offense today, Ohio State strong safety Kurt Coleman can really showcase his all-around skills. He's a borderline NFL starter who can make plays all over the field.

• This could be the day that Cal's Tyson Alualu becomes an early round pick. A gap-shooting high-motor player, Alualu could feast on an Oregon State offensive line that is 101st in the nation in sacks allowed.

• Few talk about him, but Arizona State junior cornerback Omar Bolden is loaded with talent and athleticism. He can get people talking today against USC, which features NFL talent at every starting receiving spot.

• Remember Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan? He of five sacks in the first two games of the year? He's come back on with three sacks in the last four games and could have another banner contest against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons allow a lot of pressure on their quarterbacks and Morgan can take advantage.

• People keep telling me I'm missing the boat on Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis. The senior is clearly having a good season. But let's see what he can do against North Carolina's rush-heavy defense.

Note: I will not be around today. I'll be at the Akron/Kent State game, which starts at 3:30 p.m. With tailgating before that and watching MMA afterward, there won't be time to get online.

It won't be a completely lost day, however. Kent has a couple possible NFL prospects. Tight end Konz Jameson is very athletic and reportedly runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. He's undersized but worth watching. Junior middle linebacker Cobrani Mixon is also worth checking out on the Flashes. He's a Michigan transfer and a great all-around player. By the time today ends, Mixon could have more than 100 tackles on the season.

Behind Enemy Lines: A Q+A With an N.C. State Blogger

Ben Broman — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:06:49 -0000

As we prepare for another rough weekend of football, D. Medlin from Cardiac Pack was nice enough to virtually sit down with us and exchange some Qs and As.

1. What's the problem with NC St.'s defense right now? Is it talent, coaching, or a combination of the two?

Where do I even start with N.C. State's defense? A lot of the complaining I've heard from fans and stuff I've read seems to want to blame defensive coordinator Mike Archer for the problems but I'm not completely sold on it being solely his fault. The cubbard is more than a little thin. With injuries and an extreme lack of experience in several defensive positions there has been a ton of "learning on the fly," which obviously hasn't gone very well. In its first eight games the Wolfpack have used seven different starting lineups in the defensive secondary in an attempt to find the best four guys. It hasn't happened yet. I don't think the talent is terrible, but it's definitely not where it needs to be to make the defense formidable. There were signs of life last week against Florida State, however. The Pack held do-everything QB Christian Ponder to 277 passing yards and hauled in two interceptions. I am aware that the defense still gave up 45 points, but with the way things have been going it's the little things right now.

2. On that topic, what type of defense do you guys run? Maryland can't seem to hold off attacking defenses. Does Mike Archer dial up a lot of blitzes, or is it more of a sit back and wait affair?

N.C. State has tried different things defensively throughout the year but the base scheme is most certainly zone. Mike Archer's -- and Tom O'Brien's -- calling card is zone. With all the injuries and inconsistency in the starting lineup it's been extremely difficult for the Wolfpack to have any continuity in its defense. Much like a quick passing attack, zone defense has to have a lot of rhythm. Players dropping into pass coverage have to know where their teammates are and trust that they will do their job on each and every play. With so many different lineups there have been several instances where the defense has looked lost, most notably against Duke. The coaching staff has tried to simplify the defense during the four game losing streak N.C. State and its fans are enjoying. That being said, the defense can definitely bring pressure. Defensive end Willie Young, arguably the best player on the defensive side of the ball, has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks throughout the year. Maryland fans should expect to see a fairly base zone defense from State Saturday with zone blitzes mixed in quite a bit. I feel like they may blitz someone like Chris Turner less because they feel like he may not chew up a zone like Thaddeus Lewis, but that is just a gut feeling. I could be horribly wrong.
3. It's pretty clear NC St's offense is electric. Since the opening snoozer against SC, the lowest point total is 20, which Maryland would die for right now. How'd BC manage to shut down an offense that's so electric, and how can Maryland learn from that?

Boston College most certainly did a great job shutting down the N.C. State attack, doing exactly what Tom O'Brien and Mike Archer are hoping to do with the Wolfpack defense. The zone defense that is "under construction" in Raleigh is a well-oiled machine in Chestnut Hill. Boston College gave up yards (315 passing) but stiffened in the red zones and forced two field goals in the first half after impressive N.C. State marches. Those stands were crucial later in the game once the Boston College rushing attack started chewing up yardage.

If there is one thing Maryland can take away from Boston College, it's don't be afraid to sit back and play some zone. N.C. State will move the ball and score some points, but the offense seems most dynamic when teams try to play man. Russell Wilson has a ton to do with that. When teams try to play man and Russell Wilson breaks contain, linebackers and corners are out there with their backs to the play and Wilson has a field day. Boston College let Wilson get his yards but got stops in the red zone and held Wilson to 35 yards on 11 carries.

4. To me, it seems difficult to believe that a defense can be so bad to completely throw away the advantage of having one of the highest-octane offenses in the country without a little help from special teams. Does N.C. State tend to lose the field position battle thanks to a not-so-special special teams unit?

Man I'm so glad you asked about N.C. State special teams so I'd have a chance to get up on my soap box a little bit. Here goes: Special teams and field position is the one area all year that has driven me absolutely crazy about this team. I had a feeling the defense would be less than stellar so I'm not surprised by what I've seen but I expected more out of the "special" teams. Kicker Josh Czajkowsi is serviceable as a field goal kicker but is absolutely awful as a kickoff specialist. Add in the fact that for some reason N.C. State can't cover kicks and opposing teams always seem to have amazing field position. And on the flip side, the Wolfpack has had trouble getting good return yardage on kickoff returns despite having TJ Graham, probably one of the fastest guys in the whole conference, returning kicks. Let me just give you an example number one of how bad special teams has hurt N.C. State. In the Duke game the Pack turned the ball over on two occasions trying to return punts. The last of these Duke recovered in the end zone to put the icing on the cake of its 49-28 beat down of the Wolfpack.

5. It's prediction time. Bonus points if you pick a Maryland victory (even though you'll probably be wrong).

I've been terribly off on my predictions the last few weeks so I don't really know what to think about this one. The subjective person in me thinks N.C. State could win by a couple touchdowns, but I should know better. If nothing else the game should be entertaining. Chris Turner will more than likely have a career day against the Wolfpack defense and throw for 300+. The key in this one will be turnovers. I think whoever can force more will win.

I was told I'd get bonus points for picking a Maryland victory but I wasn't sure what the points would be good for, so I'll say...

Wolfpack 31
Maryland 24

Oddsmakers: Handicapping the ACC Atlantic and Coastal Division Races

Brian @ BCI — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:38:39 -0000

It's an off week for BC football. So we thought what better time to take a step back and take a look at the ACC Championship Game picture with a game of Oddsmakers - the game that I win 60% of the time, all the time. Let's start with the feel good story of the year in the Coastal Division, Duke.

At 5-3 (3-1 ACC) and having rattled off 3 straight ACC wins for the first time since 1994, Duke is one of the great stories of the ACC and all of college football this year. But what are the chances Duke finishes 4-4 or better in conference?

Jeff: 97%. Duke is at 3-1 in conference right now so they would need to win just one of their remaining four games in order to get to 4-4 in conference. This is a very achievable mark for the Blue Devils this year with their two best chances of getting another win coming this Saturday at UNC and in their final game of the season when they play Wake at home. But oddly enough, while I think they will get one more win, I give them a very slim chance of winning two more and heading to a bowl game this season.

Brian: Duke could easily win another ACC game this year, but I’m not as optimistic as you are. The turnaround at Duke has indeed been a great story this year. Let’s keep in mind, however, that Duke has rattled off three straight ACC wins against the worst of the worst in the ACC this season. NC State, Maryland and Virginia are having terrible years and it’s likely that two of those three programs will be looking for new head coaches in the offseason. Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis has been great, but the Duke offense has been extremely one-dimensional with no running game to speak of. While North Carolina has struggled offensively, they have done a good job this season on defense. I think that North Carolina will find just enough offense at home to knock off Duke. I then expect Duke to lose their two games - Georgia Tech and at Miami - before hosting their Atlantic Division rivals Wake Forest in the season finale. As this is a rivalry game, there’s really no predicting how Duke-Wake Forest will play out at this point. Last season Duke took Wake Forest to overtime. Will Riley Skinner be ready to play? Given how unpredictable this game is for me, but considering that Duke is at home this year, I will give Duke a 55% chance of getting to .500 in ACC play this year.

On the other hand, Maryland is not a great story in the ACC. Chances the Terrapins win another game?

Brian: In two words: not good. Maryland’s best shot at another win comes this weekend when they travel to Raleigh. But the Terps will still be without the services of running back Da’Rel Scott at least through the Maryland-Florida State game. NC State proved that it can still move the ball effectively on offense against a bad defense last week against Florida State. I expect the Wolfpack to have similar success on offense this week against an equally bad defense, and do just enough(?) to beat Maryland. After NC State, Maryland’s second best chance at a win is in the season finale against BC. Da’Rel Scott will likely be back, Fridge will be fighting for his job and Maryland always gets up to play Boston College.

But the real reason why Maryland won’t win another ACC game this year is turnover margin. Maryland ranks as one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to turnover margin, and Friedgen’s teams have historically been bad at holding onto the football. The Eagles defense will be licking their chops at the chance of turning over Chris Turner, Da’Rel Scott and the Maryland offense. There’s a reason why the College Park faithful have already turned their attention to the basketball season. Chances are low here. I’ll go with 25%.

Jeff: Oddsmakers is a great game, but only truly great if one participant throws a 0% or a 100% on the board. But here is my best chance to be certain on something. Maryland will not win another game. There is a 0% chance that Maryland wins another game. They've already played Duke which at least traditionally looked like a winnable game and now all they have left are opponents who will be desperate for another win for either bowl eligibility, pride, or their division title hopes. 0%!!!

Georgia Tech is in line to win the Coastal Division with only two ACC games to play. Chances the Yellow Jackets head to Tampa?

Jeff: Georgia Tech only has two games left in ACC play. The Yellow Jackets play Wake Forest and travel to Duke. This is not a very tall order for them to win those two games and head to the conference championship game. Also, even if they do lose to Wake, Miami might lose one of its 3 remaining games this season which would also send Georgia Tech to Tampa. I feel very confident that Georgia Tech will end up in Tampa. 89%.

Brian: For all the trash talking the Coastal guys - and in particular, the From the Rumble Seat guys - have been doing degrading the ACC Atlantic and likening the division to the dregs of the Big 12 North, I can’t think of a better way of karma coming back and biting the Jackets in the ass than Wake Forest pulling off the upset this weekend. Riley Skinner returns from last weekend’s concussion and leads the Deacons on a game-winning drive to knock off the Yellow Jackets in heroic fashion. OK, I can’t say this with certainty, but Wake Forest does have experience defending the triple option playing Navy earlier this season, and by its nature, the Paul Johnson’s offense always leaves open the possibility of a letdown game. I don’t think Duke can beat Georgia Tech, even at home. I think that both Virginia Tech and Miami (Fla.) are going to win out. Virginia Tech, in particular, gets to beat down on the 3 ACC teams that Duke has already defeated this season. Given the 30% chance that Wake Forest has of being the Jackets this week, I will give Georgia Tech a 70% chance of winning the division. If Wake can beat Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech and Miami win their 3 remaining ACC games, we will again have a three-way tie at 6-2 atop the ACC Coastal and my guess is Miami would represent the Coastal having won the BCS Standings tiebreaker (Miami would have gone the most consecutive games without a loss).

Believe it or not, Florida State is still technically in contention for the Atlantic Division crown. Chances the Seminoles win out to finish 5-3 in the ACC?

Brian: Chances aren’t great, but they aren’t bad either … especially if Florida State can put together some semblance of a defense. Ponder will have to have another career day and the Seminole defense will have to stand on its head if it expects to beat Clemson in Death Valley this weekend. That is by far the toughest hurdle left for Florida State. This game doesn’t seem to mean nearly as much as it did when it was the Bowden bowl, but Bobby Bowden certainly has a lot to play for this weekend and this could inspire the ‘Noles. If Florida State can get past Clemson, the road to 5-3 gets much easier, but Wake Forest has given FSU fits the past three years and the game is in Winston-Salem this year. I would expect another similar shootout between Wake and FSU a la the FSU-NC State game last weekend. After Wake, Maryland at home should be an easy win for Florida State. Given that both the Clemson and Wake Forest games are going to be played away from Doak Campbell this year, I can’t give FSU more than a 50% chance of winning either of those games. So I’ll go fairly low here and only give Florida State a 22% chance of running the table in the ACC and finishing 5-3. The defense is just really, really bad this year.

Jeff: Well, what are Florida State's chances of beating Clemson? 50%-ish at best. Vegas has their chances much worse than that. Even though my gut tells me that Florida State might win out, the true odds that they win out are even less than 22%. Maryland is a gimme but then the Clemson game and the NC State games are going to be tough. What's the attitude in the FSU locker room right now? Who knows. I'm going to go 15% even though I am going to be one of the Seminoles biggest fans on Saturday night.

In the Atlantic, Clemson is in line to win the program’s first ACC Atlantic Division title. Chances the Tigers win their three remaining conference games?

Jeff: So far the Tigers losses have come against the best team in the conference (Georgia Tech) and the worst team in the conference (Maryland). Clemson plays Florida State, at NC State and Virginia to finish ACC play. What is the toughest game left on Clemson's schedule? Is it NC State because it’s on the road? Virginia because the team might overlook them? Or Florida State, because they are actually the best of those three teams? With Clemson, you have a team that can lose to anybody and I'm going to say they probably will lose to at least one of those teams. When you have a quarterback with the 96th best passer rating in the country (Shinskie is 59th) you are going to lose some games you might think you shouldn't lose. 10% chance Clemson wins out.

Brian: Uh oh. Is that 10% chance causing any static on the home front Jeff? What the future holds in store for Clemson is hazy to me. With Tommy Bowden at the helm, you wouldn’t give Clemson more than a 2% chance of "finishing the job" and winning three games to win the Atlantic. Things seem just a bit different this year under Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney. The Tigers seem to have gotten their annual WTF game out of their system early (at Maryland … again, how do you lose to Maryland?) and there might not be much to play for for the boys from Charlottesville and Raleigh other than maybe pride.

I’m going to go much higher than 10% here, but the one thing that keeps my percentage relatively low is the possibility that BC doesn’t keep the pressure on Clemson and our road woes continue to haunt us in Charlottesville. In that case, if Clemson beats FSU this week and NC State next week, they would have already wrapped up the Atlantic Division before the 15th of November. There wouldn’t be any incentive to beating Virginia and I could easily see them getting upset against a Virginia squad playing for their head coach’s job. If the question was odds Clemson plays in the ACC Championship Game, I’d go as high as 60%, but since the question is will they finish ACC play at 3-0, I’ll go a bit lower and say 50%.

Assuming Clemson drops a game, Boston College heads to the ACC Championship Game by their 3 remaining league games. Chances the Eagles win their next 3?

Brian: I think you have to like the Eagles chances here, even with two of their final three games away from Alumni Stadium. The toughest team left on the schedule is North Carolina, but the Eagles should be thankful they draw UNC at home this season as they are already a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ll be looking to remain a perfect 7-0 on the year at home and (hopefully) playing to keep their ACC Championship Game hopes alive. Spaz and the Eagles have found themselves in nearly the exact same situation last season, where they had to win their final three ACC games (with two on the road) to make it back to the Championship Game. The only difference is last season, we had to beat three Atlantic Division opponents while this year we draw two Coastal opponents. Oh yeah, and BC needs just a tad bit of help in the form of a Clemson loss. Last year we controlled our own destiny. Three straight is a lot of wins for a young team such as the Eagles, but BC should be favored in all three remaining games, so I’ll give the Eagles a healthy 66.7% chance of winning out.

Jeff: I love your optimism and you pointed out all the right reasons. Virginia and Maryland are done this year so BC, despite not having a road win yet this season, should be able to win both of those games. Then the Eagles get North Carolina at home where they are undefeated and coming off a victory over a Central Michigan team who is better than North Carolina. I'll truly piss you off by going only slightly higher than you and say 67% chance. The only unfortunate thing is that the Eagles have a much smaller chance of heading to the ACC Championship Game as the Atlantic Division representative because they do need some help.

Brian: Did you really just say Central Michigan is better than North Carolina? Ouch.

Another oddsmakers, another victory for me. Just another day at the office.

Leave your picks for the ACC Atlantic and ACC Coastal Division champs in the comments section below.

Duke in Charge of Their Own Destiny, Still Can't Get on Basic Cable

T.H. — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:43:46 -0000

More photos » by Ted Richardson - AP

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One of the repeated jokes over the Halloween weekend, at least during the game snippets I caught in between party preparations, was the fact that Duke football, joke of the conference for the last fifteen years, has the second-best record in the ACC and is in control of its own destiny as the November schedule plays out. It's funny, you see, because the entire conference is awful.

Duke's position is in no small part a result of a favorable schedule; after opening the conference slate with a surprisingly close loss to Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils faced a row of the worst teams in the conference. State, Maryland and Virginia are a combined 8-16 on the year, leaving North Carolina, bottom dweller of the Coastal Division as their first opponent in a month with a winning record. So are the Blue Devils actually any good, or is it all a mirage? And does Carolina have it together enough for it to matter?

First of all, to call Duke's offense one-dimensional is an insult to one-dimensional offense. The Blue Devils running game has a combined 185 yards in its four conference games. And yet they've managed 1,532 through the air in the same four games, mostly to a collection of freshmen and sophomore receivers. Expect the ball to only move when Thaddeus Lewis throws it; fortunately he's not quite the talent Christian Ponder is, and won't be able to single-handedly win the game, but expect him to put more stress on the UNC secondary than, say, Virginia or Virginia Tech.

At this point in the season, however, we know that what offense UNC faces really isn't important. The defense can handle it. The question is, is their defense flawed enough for UNC to put up the roughly two touchdowns they get in wins over 1A teams? And the answer is, I don't really know. They held N.C. State to four touchdowns, so they're not Florida State bad, but their ranking of 4th in the ACC s also a bit deceptive. Duke's best defensive strategy is keeping the defense ff the field all together – they've faced almost forty fewer plays than, say, UNC in their four conference games. I don't know how the offense grinds away at the clock with such a pass-happy strategy, but there you go.

Needless to say, Duke's schedule difficulty ramps up beginning this week, as UNC is followed by two ranked teams in Georgia Tech and Miami, only to close with schizophrenic Wake Forest. This is a near must win for Duke to reach their first bowl game since 1994. It's also a chance to see if Carolina can string together back-to-back victories. The Heels have a tendency to follow up their big conference wins with pretty dismal performances – Maryland last year and South Carolina in 2007 – so it be another step back to respectability for them to get a winning streak going. Also, Duke sucks.

Maryland-Duke Report Card and Helmet Stickers

Ben Broman — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:25:14 -0000

Was this a worse played game than UVA? Very possibly.

QB: B-

Can't say too much bad about Chris Turner today, mostly because he wasn't given the opportunity to actually throw the ball. Franklin seemed to abandon the pass pretty quickly as the conditions worsened, and Turner was rendered obsolete. He was great at the beginning of the game - completed eight of his first nine - but wasn't the same after we stopped passing it in the mid second quarter. He still had his usual problems with passes getting tipped at the line and a terrible interception, but all in all, not a bad day for Turner.

RB: C+

Definitely not a breakout game for Porzel in his first start, and I doubt he'll be making another one with Ralph's tendencies, but it wasn't terrible. When he found a hole, you could see his explosiveness. He's easily the quickest and shiftiest player on the team; at this point, it's all about getting him reps. He did seem to wear down quickly, but it was a good start.

Davin Meggett looked good again, slowly reclaiming last year's performance. He averaged more than four yards per carry and had the 67 yard touchdown reception off the screen. He did have a key drop, but the ball was wet and throw was a bit high. If the grade here looks low, it's because Maryland still only averaged 2 yards per carry; a lot of that's blocking, but that's also partially on the backs.

WR: B

I think we can finally welcome Adrian Cannon to the club as a legit wide receiver. Now, when will let Torrey Smith back in?

Cannon looked awesome, but how do we again ignore the (former, now) NCAA leader in all-purpose yardage. For the first five weeks he was the only consistent weapon on offense, and now he's not even getting the ball.

I guess that's better left to coaching, though. Cannon was great, and the rest of the group was pretty average for the day.

OL: D+

On the plus side, Duke only got one sack on Chris Turner. On the negative, they got constant penetration into the backfield, probably should've had two more sacks, and had six tackles for loss. The play that stands out to me is the Caleb Porzel draw in the third (?) quarter, when he is tackled literally as soon as he touches the ball. They didn't have to blitz much, but they still controlled the line. The rushing game had some respites with the quicker Porzel, but it was still evident this group is very much a work-in-progress.

DL: D+

With a passing attack as measured as Duke's is, you have to leave a lot of guys back in coverage - otherwise, Thaddeus Lewis will eat the defense up. At times, Maryland did that, but the defensive line was so dominated by Duke's offensive line that it didn't really matter: Lewis had all day to throw the ball anyway, and coverage can only hold so long. In response, Maryland would blitz more, and it'd be even easier for Lewis. I can only remember one time that the defensive line - by itself - ever got into the backfield. After controlling the game against UVA, it's clear that it's possible, but it didn't happen today.

LB: C+

First off, hat tip to Ben Pooler. The guy's a legit LB and looked pretty good in his second start: he's a great fourth linebacker, and I'm trying to figure out why we burnt Darin Drakeford's and Avery Murray's redshirts. Seriously, leading tackle, with one sack and two tackles for loss...that's a great performance.

Alex Wujciak was his normal self - solid against the run, ugly against the pass, and slow, which adds up to not very good against a team that passed it 43 times. He's a great asset, but only in certain situations. Adrian Moten was surprisingly quiet this week; he seems to alternate between good and bad each week, but he was solid in coverage.

That said, all three of them got abused in pass coverage - either zone or man - at least once, usually more.

DB: C-

Ouch. Outside of one good play from Anthony Wiseman and a few gigantic hits and picks by Cameron Chism - by the way, I'm no longer referring to the hit stick...it's now the Chism stick - it was a pretty rough day. Richard Taylor getting toasted in man coverage sticks out in my memory for some reason, but most of the guys, including the safeties, had a rough go of it. If not for Chism - who, in case there was any doubt, proved wholly that he should be the #1 corner with that performance - this grade is in the Ds or Fs. Yes, the defensive line had trouble getting to the QB, but Lewis often didn't even need the time they were giving him.

Special Teams: C

Nick Ferrara continued his MVP performance (really) with two field goals and his first touchback as a kickoff man, and Travis Baltz looked solid in his first game back after injury. Sadly, Torrey Smith looked only average as a kickoff return man, and Tony Logan muffed Maryland's last chance. Can't do that.

Coaching: D

See this. And, in a while, another post about the coaching. It simply didn't make sense: QB draws on 3rd and 18 (I don't care that it nearly worked, the playcall was horrendous), completely ignoring Torrey Smith for the second straight week, abandoning the Wild Turtle after just one play for the second straight week, burning Eric Franklin's redshirt, putting in Caleb Porzel on 4th down, accepting the holding call...want me to go on?

Helmet Stickers:

Adrian Cannon, WR - He had his real breakout game this week, and showed he can be just as elite as Torrey Smtih. The only difference is that he actually gets the ball.
Ben Pooler, LB - Props go out to Pooler, who also saw his coming out party yesterday: 13 tackles, the most on either team, 2.5 tackles for loss, tied for the most on either team, and a forced fumble.
Nick Ferrara, K - Nick the Kick had another solid day, 2-2 with a couple of good kickoffs.
Davin Meggett, RB - Really, nobody else deserved one. Meggett himself was a stretch, but at least he saw the endzone.

Maryland Falls to Duke, 17-13

Ben Broman — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:45:53 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Maryland lost to Duke. Think about that.

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The game might've been uglier than the weather. And the weather was plenty ugly.

In a game highlighted by a second quarter deluge worthy of a Genesis write-up and Noah himself, Duke turned it over three times, but Maryland fared no better capitalizing on those turnovers. On the strength of two late Maryland turnovers, Duke topped Maryland, 17-13.

Duke got on the board first, with a long TD drive capped off by a 24 yard Donovan Varner reception. Maryland answered with a methodical, steady drive that would get as far as Duke's seven, but had to settle for a field goal. And that's when you saw the problems forming. Duke would go on to fumble and Thaddeus Lewis would throw a rare interception, but the Terps could only muster a sole FG off the turnovers.

The Blue Devils would kick a FG and score a TD on a great catch by TE Danny Parker before Maryland saw their next score, opening up the lead to 17-6. Maryland finally responded with a by 67 yard TD pass to Davin Meggett on a screen, and comeback hopes were alive and strengthened by a fumble recovery at Maryland's own two, preventing a Duke TD. Those hopes were ultimately shortlived, as Chris Turner threw an interception with four minutes to go in the fourth and, after Maryland made a stop on defense, Tony Logan muffed the ensuing punt, effectively finishing the Terps off.

Definitely an ugly game for both Maryland and Duke, but uglier for Maryland. A lot of things happened, and I'll recap some of them later tonight (particularly coaching calls), but I'll leave you with this: Duke has allowed at least 27 points to ~~all of their opponents~~ all their BCS opponents this year, ~~including NC Central, who isn't even an FCS team - they're still D-II~~. Maryland scored just 13.