SB Nation - Shonn Greene

Who are Iowa's playmakers?

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Iowa's got three guys on offense I'm kinda worried about. The primary running back (Robinson), the good wide receiver (McNutt), and the tight end. We seem to struggle against tight ends (we give up ~3 catches/game to tight ends). McNutt and Robinson are the primary offensive weapons on Iowa's team having scored twelve of the team's twenty nine touchdowns. When Iowa needs some points, they look for McNutt and Robinson to produce or at least produce as much as an Iowa offense will allow them. Here's a quick summary of who picks up the yardage and TD's in the Iowa offense:

Looking at the yardage and touchdowns can be slightly misleading. Guys could get a big play and take it to the house on busted coverage. This could skew their overall numbers so I kinda broke it down even further. As far as receivers are concerned, there are three important factors I looked at. First was "looks" or essentially the number of times the QB threw the ball in their direction. Second was "catches" or the number of actual receptions for the player. Third was "success", which adds up all the times he took the ball for a first down or touchdown. I feel like the success rate indicates who we have to look at, from a defensive perspective, as the deep threats or the guys Iowa will go to in the clutch. So, here are Iowa's numbers for success/look, success/catch, and catch/look.

Obviously, success is relative. If the route was designed to pick up 5 yards and not a first down, then it obviously was successful. However, I'm not really factoring that in 'cause that fact is lost forever after the play is called in and actually executed. We're only looking for game breakers not 5 yard out route masters.

GT fans may have noticed that I added Demaryius Thomas to the statistics. He's pretty much on par with Iowa's main threats except in success rate. Thomas takes about 5% more of his catches for first downs or TD's than Iowa's best. So if an Iowa fan says, "You've only got one receiver!" GT fans can reply, "That's all you need when the probability of him succeeding is just as good or better than the whole gaggle of Iowa receivers!" Why fix something that's not broken? Keep throwing to Thomas and he'll keep giving us first downs and touchdowns.

Concerning the running game...Iowa doesn't really have a game breaker. The guys are serviceable. They're very young. GT would struggle with freshmen starting in our system and Iowa's two primary backs are both freshmen and account for over 80% of the carries and all of the rushing touchdowns for Iowa. Iowa is in the bottom of almost every Big 10 rushing category because they've just not had the Shonn Greene or Albert Young to carry the load and bust the occasional big one.

I broke down the running backs into two main statistics. Success rate and fail rate. "Success" means the RB picked up the first down or touchdown on his carry. "Fail" means he didn't gain a yard. I added someone to the graph who will become Iowa's new best friend shortly. Other accounts for QB draws, QB sneaks, backup RB's, and WR reverses.

And really this is Iowa's problem. Their running backs fail to gain a yard ~25% of the time. That's terrible. 80 run plays for Iowa's two main backs have accounted for less than zero yards. I am comparing Dwyer to these two because his position is most similar and his stats are more similar. Our A-backs rushing stats are like wide receiver stats. Also, Jon Dwyer is our worst back concerning plays for negative or zero yardage and he only fails to achieve a yard 10% of the time! That's only 25 plays all year! Awesome. I hope Ferentz is working on Iowa's run blocking during his month off.

As I look at Iowa's offense each day, I wonder how they won any games at all. How do you win 10 games without running the ball effectively? Their defense is either superb or their competitions' offenses were equally terrible.

IOWA HATE WEEK - Great Things About The Herkeyes

JG2112 — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:15:10 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

All that's needed when you Denny Green it, and then go -30 in overtime.

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When you think about Iowa, what crosses your mind? 8,000 calorie dinners? Kum N Go gas stations? The Pizza Ranch?

It's Iowa Week, which means IOWA HATE WEEK. Here's a few reasons to look scornfully (or humorously, you figure it out) towards the Hawkeye State in anticipation of taking the Pig back to the new trophy room at TCF this Saturday:

(1) Let's first look back to last Saturday. Kirk Ferentz took a knee at the end of regulation instead of trying to actually win a game in Columbus. The irony was that Iowa moved the ball further in reverse in overtime than it did at the end of regulation. Well done, Herkeyes.

(2) Iowa likes to find its best football players in furniture marts (Shonn Greene) and grocery stores (Kurt Warner - who played for the Herkeye's arena football league team). This obviously shows Iowa is pro-unions and is negatively contributing to out-of-control health care costs in this nation.

(3) Seriously, the Field of Dreams is your biggest tourist attraction? My wife's grandmother grew up in Dyersville and when we drove her to the FoD, she wouldn't leave the car to look at the diamond. She complained that the site was a waste of a cornfield. Take that Costner.

(4) Iowa sucks so bad that it's forced to play a redshirt freshman QB, who also sucks. On the other hand, the Gophers are so awesome that Tim Brewster and Jedd Fisch CHOOSE not to play redshirt freshman QB MarQueis Gray. Obviously, the Gophers are just letting other teams enjoy competitive matchups this year.

How else are the Gophers being generous? Eric Decker's not really hurt. You saw how he was "injured" - you really think that forward step required surgery? We're resting him for the Pizza Pizza Bowl.

(5) Paki? Jewel? Who names your running backs - Vince McMahon?

(6) I've been to Kinnick. Seriously - I don't think your adulterous drunkard fans can fit in the stalls in order to attempt to procreate and ruin their marriages. In that sense, the Metrodome was cutting edge. You'll also find that TCF has adequate floor space for a drunken liaison with that cougar from Quasqueton.

(7) Ashton Kutcher? Thanks a lot.

(8) You can take Tom Arnold back too. Thanks for that.

(9) I went to a Minnesota Timberwolves game in 2007 - it was their last game of the year. Ricky Davis (one glorious year at Iowa) was on the Wolves. I was close enough to the floor to see him listen to the coach approximately zero minutes, and watch him hit on the T-cheerbabes all game long. I believe his stat line was 1-25, all from behind the 3-point line. Heck of a ball player I say.

(10) And while I'm thinking of Iowa basketball, LOL-LITER.

Iowa's Five Worst Upsets in All of History

Oops Pow Surprise — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:15:15 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

FILE -- This is a Sept. 27, 2008, file photo showing Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looking on during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

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1. Northwestern 2008: jNWU 22, Iowa 17

This is the obvious choice for the worst loss in Iowa history, mainly because nobody could see it coming. Ricky Stanzi had the case of the turnoversies that he usually saves for cupcake opponents like A-State, Indiana, and jNWU.

But even with a expulsion-worthy helmet-to-helmet hit incapacitating Shonn Greene by Brad Phillips and Stanzi's full smorgasbord of new and creative changes of possession, Iowa still had a 1st and goal inside the jNWU 10-yard line with time running out. Alas, the four plays called failed--obviously because O'Keefe was O'Throwing the O'Football game--and Northwestern walked away with college football's most stunning upset of 2008.

Karma rewarded Northwestern when lowly Missouri ran them out of the stadium in the Alamo Bowl later that year, while Iowa cruised against the far superior South Carolina.

2. Northwestern 2005: jNWU 28, Iowa 27

The sight of Kyle Schlicher pushing the field goal that would have made the game 30-14 late in the 4th quarter haunts us to this day. What ensued was an epic meltdown, with Iowa giving up a quick touchdown, an onside kick, and another quick touchdown.

Did the pain end there? No no, friends; no no. Drew Tate got the Hawkeyes moving after the fatal touchdown and had the ball inside Northwestern territory with under 30 seconds to play; two passes bouncing off Herb Grigsby's hands later, we all tried to kill ourselves.

3. Northwestern 1999: jNWU 23, Iowa 21

Some people may think of this as not being much of an upset, being that 1999 Iowa was the school's single worst team in the past 35 years, and Northwestern didn't win until a touchdown on the game's final play. Well, yeah, that's why this is #3 on the list of worst Iowa upsets of all time and not #1.

4. Northwestern 1990: Iowa 56, jNWU 14

Just Northwestern fought gallantly for upwards of four minutes (real time, not game time; that'd be ridiculous). Alas, Iowa was much too tough, and God's Team prevailed again. No, the real upset here that we didn't hurt their boys too bad. That usually happens.

5. Tulsa 1996: Tulsa 27, Iowa 20

AAAAGH AAAAGH AAAAGH AAAAGH KILL THIS MEMORY DEAD WITH A FLAMETHROWER. But it's not as bad as only beating jNWU by 42. They're just Northwestern.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Iowa

LVS — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:32:02 -0000

[Given the time constraints, shorter than usual. --LVS.]

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the IOWA HAWKEYES

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

7:05 PM ET, BIG TEN NETWORK

WEATHER: 42 DEGREES, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN

Operation "make the season respectable" has largely succeeded following wins in the last three weeks. The opportunity to make the season special begins this week, as a win on Saturday would essentially put MSU in command of the Big Ten title race. The first two years under Mark Dantonio have yielded little grist for complaints; one of the legitimate gripes, however, is that we haven't played well in "big" games -- namely, those in which we're less talented but not absolutely overmatched. (Last season's debacles against Ohio State and Penn State being examples 1 and 1A, of course.) Well, the biggest opportunity of all has arrived. Iowa is undefeated but not unbeatable, and has historically struggled in East Lansing. A win on Saturday would not merely confirm a complete 180 in the season's fortunes -- not unlike what Iowa did last year, by the way -- but also signify a giant step forward for the program as a whole. Can we do it? I'm not wholly optimistic, but a big result isn't out of our reach.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . they're playing a offense whose statistical mediocrity perhaps belies an ability to get things done when it's most needed. Iowa is currently sixth in the conference in both passing offense (47th nationally) and efficiency 58th nationally), and ninth in the league (93rd nationally) in rushing. But, 2 things: having a great defense certainly can make up for mediocre offensive play, and when Rick Stanzi is on, this isn't a terrible offense after all.

And unfortunately for us, Stanzi's coming off probably his most consistent game of the year: a 17/23, 218 yard performance against Wisconsin which included an absolutely gorgeous touchdown throw to Tony Moeaki. The STANZIBALL meme is justified; just ask BHGP:

But holy smokes, is Ricky Stanzi ever trying to raise peoples' blood pressure. For the second straight week, Stanzi threw what we considered his worst, most definitive, Stanziest of the STANZIBALLs, this one a game-opener to Donovan Warren who, with a different set of rules, could have crawled into the end zone unmolested. [ . . . ]

Stanzi's antics have now directly cost the Hawkeyes a touchdown in three of the last four games, a Jarrett Lee-like display that ended a whole lot worse for LSU last season than it has for Iowa thus far. In those three games, each of whom was an unranked opponent now and at kickoff, the average margin of victory has been five points. Obviously, you can't take points off the board in the middle of the game and expect the rest of it to play out exactly the same, but if Iowa wins all three of those games by an average of 12 points instead, we've got a much better comfort level and maaaaybe a better ranking thus far. Probably a moot point unless Iowa wins in Columbus, but something worth pointing out all the same.

That was following the Michigan game, in which Stanzi hit the STANZIBALL nadir by throwing an absolute gift to Donovan Warren; our defense hasn't been the greatest at forcing turnovers, but if one comes gift-wrapped, that could make a big difference in the game.

Stanzi's primary receivers are WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and TE Tony Moeaki, both of whom had big games against Wisconsin: DJK (easier this way) had 8 catches for 134 yards, while Moeaki had 3 catches for 55 yards. Moeaki, in particular worries me; we've had all kinds of trouble defending good pass-catching tight ends this season (Kyle Rudolph and Garrett Graham, in particular) and Moeaki is probably better than either--he's finally showing the potential that's been wasted by injuries during the past few seasons, and in 4 games this season, he has 20 catches (to lead the team!) for 247 yards and four touchdowns. He's a very difficult matchup for our linebackers and safeties (6'5", 250); hopefully we have some sort of scheme to slow him down.

MSU linebacker Greg Jones said the plan of attack is pretty straight forward for stopping a duel-threat like Moeaki.

"He can only do so many things at one time - he's (either) gonna block or go out for a pass," Jones said. "He's gonna use his size to his advantage, and if I was that big I would too, so it's gonna make it pretty simple."

Do your thing, Greg.

Meanwhile, in the wake of Shonn Greene's departure and Jewel Hampton's season-killing injury, Iowa has done a passable job in the run game -- led by freshmen Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher:

RUSHING	GP-GS	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Robinson, Adam	7-6	108	541	21	520	4.8	5	43	74.3
Wegher, Brandon	7-0	81	327	36	291	3.6	3	28	41.6

Robinson's statistics include a 91 yard, 1 TD performance against Wisconsin. Given the way that Jerel Worthy and Colin Neely have been playing the past few weeks, I definitely think we can stop Iowa's ground game. I'd just rather that we don't make the mistake Michigan did and sell out to get there:

Speaking of the rush, hello half of the state of Michigan: if Michigan's game plan was explicitly "Make Stanzi beat us," they went about it the correct way. Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher were effectively minimized as threats, combining for 91 yards on 23 carries. Worse, the two garnered only three first downs on the ground (all Robinson in the third quarter), with Stanzi registering three of his own. That's not exactly the type of production that usually leads to Iowa scoring 30 points.
Fortunately, with Michigan putting 11 players, 4 couches, 3 cheerleaders, and Sad Michigan Girl in the box, that left the secondary very susceptible to big plays, and Moeaki's delay routes as the receivers ran off coverage led to two easy, easy touchdowns, the second of which accounted for Iowa's last points of the day.

Given our relative strength on run defense and the secondary's previous troubles, I'd much rather we do the converse: focus on stopping the pass and make the two freshman running backs beat us. (Sounds a lot like Iowa's probable game plan.) Of course, the two aren't mutually exclusive: cranking up the pass rush has gone a long way toward helping the secondary do its job; getting pressure at the line of scrimmage will obviously be beneficial for the run defense as well.

Finally, it's worth noting that we have 21 sacks in 7 games, and Iowa has allowed 15. Bryan Bulaga, Iowa's huge offensive lineman, is beastly when healthy, but he hasn't been all season, and looks to be a shadow of his former self. Please, please, please, get pressure on Stanzi.

Not our offense, but who cares!

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Ugh:

Big Ten Pass Efficiency Defense:

Rank	Name	Gm	Patt	Pcomp	PaPct	Int	IntPct	Yds	Ydsatt	Tds	TdPct	Rating	Win	Loss	Ties	Natl Rank
1	Iowa	7	215	106	49.30	15	6.98	1169	5.44	5	2.33	88.69	7	0	0	5

Big Ten Turnovers Gained:

Rank	Name	Turnovers Gained
1	Iowa	22

Big Ten Passes Intercepted:

Rank	Name	Passes Intercepted
1	Iowa	15

. . . and that's my agita about this game distilled into three tables. Iowa's pass defense forces tons of turnovers and makes good quarterbacks look absolutely horrible.

Darryl Clark's statistics are particularly scary. This is a very, very, very good Iowa secondary. Amari Spievey is an NFL player, Shaun Prater is solid and is additionally some sort of talisman for the defense (he didn't play in the defense's worst outings of the year), and the two safeties -- Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood -- have combined for 8 interceptions. Combine that with two excellent linebackers (A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer) and a havoc-wreaking defensive end (Adrian Clayborn) and . . . uh, yeah, you'll understand my pessimism during the BHGP podcast.

Giving Cousins time will be absolutely key; 3 of his 4 interceptions this year have come when he's pressured. If he's hurried, he's going to make mistakes and Iowa will capitalize. If he has time . . . it's not going to be pretty but I have enough faith in Cousins to believe that he'll be able to move the ball. Iowa only has 13 team sacks on the year -- not an overwhelming number for a defense of this caliber -- and we'll need to minimize that number on Saturday night.

Iowa's defense, on the other hand, can probably be run upon:

OPPONENT	ATTEMPTS	YARDS	TOUCHDOWNS
Northern Iowa	32	84	0
Iowa State	34	190	0
Arizona	25	148	0
Penn State	33	109	0
Arkansas State	25	80	0
Michigan	45	195	3
Wisconsin	33	87	1

(N.B.: John Clay wasn't exactly himself for most of the game last week.) Those aren't horrible numbers by any means, but they aren't lights-out, either -- sixth in the conference. If there was one week where we'd massively benefit from a breakout game by Larry Caper -- yep, this is it. If we can start picking up some yards on the ground, we might be able to get Greenwood and Sash to cheat up and thereby take away their ability to snag Cousins' passes away. (Also a worry: the ability of our freshman RBs to hold onto the ball. Please, no fumbles.)

That, ultimately, is my key to the game: we have to get something done on the ground; we weren't great last week against Northwestern, and that isn't going to cut it this week. Our passing game is very good, but their pass defense is better, and if Cousins has to throw the ball 40 times, this game is not going to end well.

FINAL PREDICTION: A few weeks ago, before Michigan went to Iowa City, Brian wrote this:

The prediction below is weird: it builds in what appears to be a 50-50 shot at Iowa having one more game-crippling mistake than Michigan. I think if M gets that game crippling mistake they will be in it at the end with a chance to win, possibly attempting to defend and Iowa game-winning drive. If they don't I think they end up in a hole and threaten to break out of it from time to time but never actually do so, with the cold and the crowd and the Iowa defense finally reining in Forcier when the game's on the line.

Of course, Michigan did get that game-crippling mistake, and Iowa still won. Iowa's resiliency has been remarkable. They were down early to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State, and yet, they didn't panic: they let their defense assert itself and chipped away until the other team, battered and broken, had nothing left. This is an awfully impressive team: by far the best we've played. They're not unbeatable, and we've been pretty resilient ourselves: we were 1-3, and now, if we win tomorrow, we're probably the favorites to win the conference. But to get there, we'll have to play much better than we have at any time this season -- a Michigan game-type effort, minus the 4th quarter collapse -- and we will have to be there to take pick up and take advantage of the giveaways that Iowa will almost inevitably make.

It's a night game, the team will be hyped, the atmosphere will be unbelievable, and we've got something BIG to play for. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we pulled this game off -- a la Wisconsin in ~~'05~~ '04 -- but to predict a win is just a step too far, I think. Iowa 24-23.

The Takeaway: Arkansas State

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:30:23 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Arkansas State quarterback Corey Leonard (1) runs from Iowa defender Adrian Clayborn (94) during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 24-21. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Sure, Iowa just eked out a win against Arkansas State, 24-21. But how much do we really know? What was really important about beating A-State? What does it all mean, Basil? The Takeaway has the answer.

Things that were not a problem: Rush defense. There, that's the whole list.

Well, that went just great: We had said before the game that we wanted to see the following things:

We need to see that Bulaga and the rest of the line are up to speed. We need to see that Stanzi can start putting a team away from the first snap. We need to see that the defense can bring its A game when it doesn't need to. We need to see that Tony Moeaki can play four quarters without injuring himself. Okay, just the first three would be fine.

Okay, that would be a NO, KINDA BUT NO, NO, and ROR NO. Bryan Bulaga looked, frankly, like someone who had missed three weeks of gameplay. Stanzi had a good first half, but after his third touchdown of the game to open the second half, Bad Ricky finally showed up and brought A-State back from the brink. The defense was middling, though the rushing score streak remained intact (more on that in a bit). And at the very least, Moeaki is practicing again with the intent to play against Michigan. Fingers crossed.

What ended up happening isn't that it was a "trap game" or that ASU had any reasonable shot of winning. It's that a combination of lackluster focus, a four-year starter opposing quarterback, and poor playcalling helped get a clearly inferior team back into the game when they had no business being there as Iowa (successfully) played not to lose. In other words, it wasn't UNI 2009, but Purdue 2008. Remember that one? Shonn Greene goes bananas on Frank Duong, but a middling second half and random small mistakez aplenti means Purdue climbs back in late and the final's only 22-17.

The good news? You might remember what happened when Iowa had a more high-profile game the ensuing week. Kinnick North, bitches. In other words, you may not want to spend too much time extrapolating doom-and-gloom scenarios from this game. Maybe.

Hey, this play's working. Let's almost never run it: First, we have to talk about the playcalling. This was a 24-21 game that frankly ought to have been about 42-14. That Marvin McNutt only had four catches and 121 yards is a damned travesty, because he was bitchmaking like his name was Iowa Defense.

We would suggest calling McNutt "The bitchmaker," but come on; his name is Marvin McNutt. That'll do.

We're just astounded that the Iowa coaches didn't attack the ASU corners and safeties outside the hashes more often. It's clearly not that Stanzi doesn't have the arm for it; all three of his touchdown passes were pretty, and the couple failed attempted to go downfield didn't exactly seem to us like signs that the deep ball was closed for business. And yet time and time again, it was stretch zones, usually to the right (where Julian Vandervelde was channeling his 2007 self and getting utterly worked). Either that or play-action passes within 10 yards, which, whatever guys.

We're not saying that Iowa needed to pull a RUTS for the rankings' sake or any of that nonsense. That stuff does not matter unless it's time for the type of talk that everyone agrees is premature: BCS. No, the problem is that Iowa could have put A-State away by throwing wheel and fade routes all day long (see the second half of Northwestern, 2007) and they just wouldn't go downfield.

This should have happened like five times.

It didn't help, of course, when Stanzi gave the Red Wolves their second touchdown with one of the most horrendously lazy and ill-advised throws we've ever seen in Division I football. That is not an exaggeration. If Stanzi had turned around and tried to punt the ball through Iowa's uprights, it would have not have been a considerably worse decision than that throw. If Jake Christensen had done that, JC6 would have been murdered by a sniper in the press booth before he could get to the sideline, and the police wouldn't have bothered looking for the shooter. Hell, it would have been the largest cheer from the crowd on the day. Holy shit what a terrible fucking throw. That throw gave my eyes AIDSAWAC (Auto-Immune Deficiency Syndrome Also With Ass Cancer).

But why are the coaches even calling for a clearly hobbled DJK to run an underneath route, especially on 3rd down and with the linebackers playing short zone all day long? It's hard to figure out who put Iowa in less position to succeed there. That's like running a reverse with "Mr. 4.8 40" Dominique Douglas in the fourth quarter of a bowl game where you're losing by one point and oh wait this is Iowa and never mind I should expect the horror by now.

So the streak's still going. Great?: Okay, on one hand, it's really cool that Iowa has now gone for eight games and another quarter without letting someone rush into the end zone, and it's even better that they've won each of the nine games that streak encompasses.

This, as you might have guessed, was not a touchdown.

But if Iowa's still giving up long drives and touchdowns, then it doesn't really matter how the other team gets into the end zone, does it? We're taking nothing away from the Iowa rush defense, of course; their efforts have been massive, and 25 rushes for 80 yards allowed is all sorts of studly, especially as ASU was gathering just 5.4 yards per pass play.

Still, for the second week in a row, the opposition put forward an interminable drive - this one for a touchdown, unlike PSU's 20-play field goal drive - where Iowa couldn't stop the 3rd down conversion (okay, they did once, but that was an easy 4th and 1 conversion after a 3rd and 27, which is unconscionable in its own right). Part of it is missing Shaun Prater, to be sure, and Prater's going to be back against Michigan. No more Willie Lowe is a good thing at this point, and lord only knows how bad Greg Castillo would have been out there.

Look, the streak's going ot end at some point, and odds are that it'll probably be during an Iowa victory--Iowa's favored by about a touchdown against Michigan, and we can't imagine that they'll be underdogs in any more than two of the final seven games of the season. Someone's going to take a pass to the one, then push one in for a score; either that, or they'll pull a Wisconsin 2008 and run wild on a defense comprised of Iowa's 3rd stringers, band members, and yippie dogs in Hawkeye sweaters. And that'll be that, really; after all, since the win streak started against Penn State, we can't remember when Iowa's red zone rush defense has even mattered to the endgame. Maybe Arizona, but eh. Cool stat, but ultimately trivial.

Not trivial: Karl Klug's desire to kill.

And finally, it comes. This is a big week. BHGP's doing the Iowa-Michigan tailgate, and it looks like we'll be setting up shop in the Myrtle Lot and getting started at around 9 a.m. on Saturday. We were angling for parking passes closer to Kinnick, but when they're running over $200 a pop... on the prior Sunday... yes, that's a bad sign. It probably isn't even worth asking if there's any BHGP readers who won't be using their passes for next week's game, right? Either way, let's do this, bitches. We've got the Kahlua and cream if you've got the Swedish Goose.

(Picture credits: Hunter picture and second McNutt picture: John Schulz, Quad City Times; all others below the fold, Matthew Holst, Press-Citizen)

Joe Paterno Press Conference Recap

BSD — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 18:15:17 -0000

More photos » by Pat Little - AP

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Here are some nuggets from Joe Paterno's press conference today.

Joe called Sean Lee "Day-to-day" and isn't sure if he will play on Saturday. He was on the field yesterday, but didn't do anything.
Bowman practiced for about 1/3 of Monday's practice. They will evaluate him as the week goes on.
Joe says Daryll Clark is important to the team, and they are not going to run him if they don't have to. But they will do what they have to do to win the football game.
Joe is worried about the linebackers with all the injuries. Mauti, Lee, and Bowman were supposed to be the top three linebackers. Right now all three are injured. Says Stupar can be good, but he is irratic at times. Same with Bani Gbadyu. Josh Hull has to hold the thing all together.
Graham Zug will practice today and Joe thinks he will be ok for Saturday.
A couple guys up front on the kick return team are missing their blocks which is causing the problems on the return game. It's not the timing with the wedge being too close to the return man.
Joe does not like the word "revenge" in reference to this game with Iowa. Iowa licked us last year. "It's not like they sneaked up on us and stabbed us in the back with a knife" They're just approaching this game as they would prepare for a good football team.
Ricky Stanzi is a good football player. He's not flashy. Not one of those kids who calls attention to himself. He's a coach's quarterback. Knows what's going on. Looks a little shaky in the beginning of games, but puts it together in the second half.
Says Iowa has some good running backs. He thought they might be shaky without Shonn Greene, but doesn't look that way.
Dennis Landolt is a solid tackle. Didn't have a great game against Temple which is unusual for him. He's not an emotional kid, but he comes to work every day and pays attention to the little things.
Jared Odrick is a little more of a free spirit that the kids that have played at tackle. Spends a lot of time looking at blocking schemes so he can take advantage. He's a fine football player.
Joe didn't want to get into Kirk Ferentz's 6-1 record against Penn State. Says he's just worried about this year.
Joe doesn't know if the flu is still hanging around the team. Everyone was in practice yesterday. One or two kids are still getting over it. He thinks they're ok this week, but tomorrow they might have five or six kids say they came down with it.
Joe says they haven't run everything in the play book yet. Doesn't know how much they have or haven't run yet. They did hold some stuff back. They went into the Temple game determined to run it more.
The linebackers will be Hull, Stupar, and Gbadyu if Lee and Bowman can't go.
He's not comfortable with the goal line offense yet. But they will get better as the offensive line gets more experience. They probably haven't spent enough time on the goal line yet.
The first team and second team on offense and defense get the same amount of practice reps because you never know when you are going to need a backup player to step in. That may be different from what other schools do.
Joe isn't aware of any problems with Sean Lee's ankle. Says he has a sprained knee.
The kickoff coverage is not very good. He seems to think it's a personnel problem more than anything. They've had to put some guys in there that haven't played a lot of football.
Joe tries to pace the day so the players can rest up for these late games. The toughest part is the kids have friends and family that want to hang out before the game. He has to keep them focused.
Jack Crawford will be good when he gets more confidence in himself.
The Whiteout is a great place to play a football game. To have games here with our crowd has been an advantage for us. It's a bringing together of the whole institution. It's fun, and it's great to be a part of it. The kids look forward to it. They enjoy the rallies the night before. Joe made a little dig at Bobby Bowden and Florida State at the end when he said, "What do you do when you're in college? How many things do you do where you are involved with 110,000 other people on the same page? Unless you're in an English class cheating with 30 other guys."

Zing!

CFB Big 12 Roundup: Week One

rockchalk — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:35:37 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Where did you put us in the Big 12 Power Rankings?(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Note: This story's comment section turned into an impromptu Open Game Thread for the absolutely aces (fantastic/awesome/incredible/super/sensational/awe-inspiring/etc,) game between Miami and Florida State. I highly recommend reading through the comments, if you have time, but just as a warning -- only the first five are actually about the (brilliantly written, I might add) story. The rest are all Canes-Noles. It starts roughly 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. And yes, we put up that many numbers. It is a future first ballot Hall of Famer in the sometime-to-be-created Rock Chalk Talk Hall of Fame, and is that good. Read it.

Everyone's favorite Big 12 weekly wrapup from college basketball is back, this time for college football!

(Applause)

Seriously, though, this should be a weekly feature, highlighting all of the Big 12 teams, and how they fared in their games. It will also take a brief look towards next week, along with providing some form of Power Rankings for the week. In a way, it's my own version of the Big 12 Roundtable.

So, let's get this started. We'll work through the teams based off of their preseason ranking according to me:

This Week's Games

Iowa State 34 North Dakota State 17 -- The 17-point margin of victory looks nice, as well it should, but I don't know exactly how it happened. Both teams had 2 turnovers, with the Clones only outgaining the Fighting Ben Woodsides by 54 yards. A scary note for the Block-I's: NDSU runningback Pat Paschall piled up 146 yards rushing on only 21 carries, which is 7 yards per. That isn't good. So, while Iowa State's offense certainly looked competent, the defense needs to take some serious steps forward or, uh, ouch.

Next Week -- vs. Iowa -- Clone Chronicles

Nebraska 49 Florida Atlantic 3 -- This was exactly the type of performance the Cornhuskers needed to open the season. A dominating victory, leaving no doubt about who the better team was or anything, against a solid, bowl-winning Florida Atlantic team. The key for the Huskers was the running game, as Roy Helu Jr. just got whatever he wanted, picking up 9.5 yards a carry. That is ridiculous.

Next Week -- vs. Arkansas State -- Corn Nation

Texas Tech 38 North Dakota 13 -- Unlike North Dakota State, the Fighting Sioux are a D-II school. Division II. And while the Red Raiders were never in danger of actually losing the game, it certainly wasn't the preposterous blowout that it easily could have been. Taylor Potts had a shiny 405 total yards passing, but he also threw three interceptions, which is obviously worrisome for the Techers. I'm assuming it had everything to do with getting Potts as many attempts as possible, but Mike Leach essentially abandoned the run altogether, calling only 14 runs all game long. 14. 53 passes were called, combining Potts' 48 attempts with 5 runs/sacks for negative yardage. That is a big disparity.

Next Week -- vs. Rice -- Double-T Nation

Kansas State 21 UMass 17 -- Uhhhhhh. I mean, I know Bill Snyder is famous for vanilla-izing his playbook against terrible opponents, and Carson Coffman is a true QB in nobody's eyes, but still -- they won by four against the Minutemen. A win is a win, and it counts the same, and may be more valuable in the long run than a total blowout would have been. But still, this can't be comforting to the Powercat faithful. What should ease the pain is K-State's 195 yard advantage, with only Carson Coffman mistakes (1 INT, 1 fumble) keeping the Minutemen alive. Their D was fabulous against the pass, holding UMass to only 3.2 yards per attempt, but were poor against the run, giving up more than 5 yards a run to UMass' starting runningback.

Next Week -- @ Louisiana Lafayette -- Bring On the Cats

Texas A&M 41 New Mexico 6 -- Really, of all of the Big 12 teams, this was almost assuredly the performance of the week. The Lobos have a brand new coaching staff, yes, and last year the Aggies made the trip to Mexico Nuevo as opposed to this year's matchup at Kyle Field, but still -- the Ampersands won 28-22 last year, and 41-6 this year. That is a big difference. Might Mike Sherman, to the surprise of the entire world, know what he's doing afterall? The score wasn't just garbage-time points, either. Texas A&M surged ahead to a 20-0 lead and was winning 34-6 by the end of the 3rd quarter. They outgained the Lobos by nearly 400 yards, and Jerrod Johnson looked absolutely fantastic. 349 yards passing plus another 50 running, paired with freshman Christine Michael's near 100-yard day was a large positive for the Ags. Now, maybe New Mexico is just way worse than everyone expected, so it's too early to really draw much. But, the Aggies looked like a bowl team on Saturday night.

Next Week -- BYE -- I Am the 12th Man

Texas 59 Louisiana Monroe 20 -- Was anyone surprised, at all, about this final score? Yeah, I didn't really think so. This is basically the performance everyone was expecting from the 'Horns -- absolute domination on the offensive side of the ball, with periodic struggles on defense. It should be noted, however, that the Warhawks scored 10 of their points in the 4th quarter, when the game was more than in hand the subs, I'm sure, were playing. So, periodic struggles is unfair. However, Colt McCoy did throw a pick, so I think it's definitely time for Bevo to panic.

Next Week -- @ Wyoming -- Burnt Orange Nation

Missouri 37 Illinois 9 -- What did I tell you? Missouri is going to be good this year, people -- really good. I'm not even positive they won't be better than last season. Of course, before I get too high up on a pedestal of genius, just remind me that I was just regurgitating the information that RMN's numbers told me to believe. Really, it is math that called Missouri, so score one for math. The mathless wonders in Champaign (I mean, who really thinks that Regis Benn has ever attended a calculus class?) were outclassed from the opening whistle, as Blaine Gabbert looked marvelous. Now, not marvelous enough to supercede Tom Brady in football history (I'm looking at you, Jason Whitlock), but still -- pretty damn good. I just hope our eerily similar transition next year is as seamless as the Tigers' will be*.

Next Week -- vs. Bowling Green State -- Rock M Nation

* Seriously, it's downright creepy the similarities between the 08-09 turnover for the Tigers and the 09-10 turnover for the Jayhawks. Another reason to watch the Tigers closely this season. I mean, Missouri lost Chase Daniel (Todd Reesing), Jeremy Maclin (Dezmon Briscoe), Chase Coffman (Kerry Meier) and William Moore (Darrell Stuckey). I mean, wow. We don't really have a Ziggy Hood, and there are a couple other minor places where the comparison falls off, but it isn't bad. We do lose our runningback, while they kept theirs. So, yeah, maybe not as good as I thought. Still.

Baylor 24 Wake Forest 21 -- Huh? Robert Griffin III, who is the Bears' lone good player, was held to a combined 177 yards, and the Bears won? On the road? Against a ACC bowl team? Damn. Maybe it isn't just the Robert Griffin show, after all. The Bears scored on a WR pass to give them the would-be game-winner, with runningback Jay Finley also taking on the brunt of the workload. And of course, the defense is quite good, led by Joe Pawalek at LB, and they did a good job against Riley Skinner and Company. I love Baylor.

Next Week -- BYE -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Colorado 17 Colorado State 23 -- Whoops. And let me just tell you, it wasn't really a 6-point loss. It was 23-3 at one point, and the Rams looked like they were just getting started. Obviously, that isn't true, and the Buffs stepped it up towards the end, but it was clear from play one who the better team was out there on the field. And a lot of the time, it wasn't really close. Cody Hawkins predictably looked quite awful back there at QB, and for reasons unknown to rational humans, Darrell Scott was handed off to once. One carry. That's it. Beginning to regret the decision to go to Boulder, there, Darrell? Of course, it wasn't just that Hawkins decided to focus on Rodney Stewart or Brian Lockridge, instead. Nah. Lockridge only had one carry himself (a 9-yard TD run) while Stewart only picked up 6 carries. That is a combined 8 for your three best runningbacks, Dan Hawkins. And your son, who is awful, threw the ball 40 times. Uh, wut?

Next Week -- @ Toledo -- The Ralphie Report

Oklahoma State 24 Georgia 10 -- The performance of the day for the Big 12, at least when it comes to national perception. With all of the hype that the Pokes have received this offseason, it was crucial they at least showed up against an SEC team considered to be the 4th best this season, and who lost their top QB, RB and WR over the offseason. After not showing up for much of the first half, they managed to hang around, then somehow take a 10-7 lead into halftime. Even now, I'm not sure how they did that. But then in the second half, they showed who really was the best team on the field. It is the lynchpin to the upcoming campaign, Big 12 > SEC. Also, Bill Young knows how to coach a little sumpin'-sumpin' on defense, huh? Dayum. Now, I think part of it may have been just a bad Georgia offense, but still -- last year's Oklahoma State defense gives up a lot more than 10 points.

Next Week -- vs. Houston -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Oklahoma 13 BYU 14 -- Sam Bradford or no Sam Bradford, this one wasn't good for Boomer Sooner. Even before Sam Bradford went out with a sprained shoulder, Oklahoma just looked bad. At times, really bad. Their offensive line was in shambles, with the Mormons consistently getting pressure on Sam. And, as everyone predicted last season, Sam isn't quite sure what to do with pressure. He never had less than 18 seconds last year to throw, so when he was only given 2 and 3 on Saturday, it wasn't pretty. Landry Jones, owner of the world's ugliest mustache (besides Trey Hillman, of course), looked even worse, predictably. It wasn't just worse, though -- Landry (can we call him Lance?) looked absolutely awful. No Jermaine Greshman couldn't have been positive, either. Of course, it isn't like Oklahoma's D was awesome, either -- Max Hall basically ripped them to shreds, and it could have been worse except for a pair of Max Hall mental mistakes. Not a good sign for Boomer Sooner.

Next Week -- vs. Idaho State -- Crimson and Cream Machine

What 2 Watch 4 (I Can Be Cool Too, ESPN)

Basically, this is what I want to see from every Big 12 team next week. It maybe as simple as just asking for a victory, or it may be as specific as getting Player X the ball more.

Iowa State -- Stop the running game. Iowa lost Shonn Greene, yes, but they still have a dangerous ground attack. If you can't improve on last week's putrid performance, no way you pull off the upset.

Nebraska -- Rinse and repeat. Arkansas State is about the same quality of team as the Owls, so I want to see an equally dominant performance.

Texas Tech -- Taylor Potts needs to improve. Obviously, the yardage totals look nice, but he needs to take better care of the ball.

Kansas State -- Don't lose. ULa-La is a good team, certainly a lot better than UMass, and plus it is on the road. More specifically, shore up the running defense, but as long as you come out of there with a W, be happy.

Texas -- Rinse and repeat. Same situation as Nebraska. Now, it doesn't have to be quite as dominant, as Wyoming is probably a step up and it is in Laramie, but you should still win by 24 points easily.

Missouri -- Don't get overconfident. Yes, you looked incredible on Saturday. But don't underestimate just how bad Illinois probably is. They are awful. They'll be lucky to make a bowl this year. Book it. And Bowling Green is an improved team who crushed Troy last Thursday night, the predicted winner of the Sun Belt. Not too much partying, Blaine. A loss to the Falcons erases all of the positive goodwill of a win over the Juices Benz.

Colorado -- Please, just win. Please. If you lose to Toledo, you aren't making a bowl. Just please, win. Please.

Oklahoma State -- Basically the same as Missouri, just take out the part about how bad the opponent was. Georgia actually is a pretty good team. Maybe really good, even. Still, Houston is pretty good, too, and Casey Keenum is a stud, so let's not go out partying or nothing. I had to speak in a double-negative, there, because that's how they speak. And I really want them to listen to me.

Oklahoma -- Coach the hell out of Landry (Lance?) this week. Idaho State shouldn't be an issue, but depending on how long Sammy is out, you might end up playing an opponent where Landry/Lance will have to play well. He better be up for the challenge. Oh, also -- shave his freaking mustache. It's a disgrace to the world.

Power Rankings

We are going explanation-less, as they are mostly self-explanatory. If you have a complaint, raise it in the comments section, and I'll get back to you. Unless you're KC.

Texas (1-0)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Missouri (1-0)
Nebraska (1-0)
Baylor (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Oklahoma (0-1)
Texas A&M (1-0)
Iowa State (1-0)
Texas Tech (1-0)
Kansas State (1-0)
Colorado (0-1)

I know I changed things up a bunch. I'm expecting a bunch of criticism. It's okay. And just to nip it in the bud, Kansas is as low as it is because the three above them (assuming no one has an issue with Texas or OSU ahead of them) all had more impressive wins. All three played MUCH better teams than a 1-AA team with 3 wins combined in the last 3 years. I think we are better than all three teams, but we'll see.

That's all, for now. I'll be back next week.

The TDG Consensus on the 2009 Big Ten Final Standings

Buck Bravo — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:18 -0000

The team at The Daily Gopher has been having some friendly debates regarding the prospectus for the 2009 Big Ten season, and we've decided to take our differences public. We'll revisit this post at the end of the season in order to analyze how well our predictions held up. Following is each of our predictions for the 2009 final standings, followed by a consensus prediction that combines all three of our analyses into one group intelligence melting pot:

GN - Penn State gets the home game against Ohio State so I'm giving them the not for conference title. But they will drop one somewhere along way, could be one of their road games (NU, Mich St or Ill). I believe in Iowa, they are good but they are not great. They have to go on the road to OSU and PSU, they won't sneak up on anybody this time around. I see it hard for them to lose a third game in conference so 6-2 seems pretty accurate. After that it is a cluster and this was my best guess. Illinois is very talented but who knows if they can stay above .500 in conference, they rarely (Ohio St 2007) play up to their talent level so them being in that 4-4 group wouldn't be surprising. Minnesota beats the other 4-4 teams and loses to the teams above them.

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Penn State	7-1	11-1
2	Ohio State	7-1	10-2
3	Iowa	6-2	10-2
4	Illinois	5-3	9-3
5	Minnesota	4-4	7-5
6	Michigan State	4-4	7-5
7	Northwestern	4-4	8-5
8	Michigan	3-5	6-6
9	Wisconsin	2-6	6-6
10	Purdue	2-6	4-8
11	Indiana	0-8	2-10

BB - The competition for the Big Ten Championship should be a four horse race. As usual, Ohio State and Penn State are in the running. For 2009, expect Iowa and Michigan State to be added to the mix. Iowa has a talented crew of upperclassmen and a dominant offensive line. Michigan State had a surprisingly successful year in 2008, and with a favorable schedule should be in the running for the Big Ten Championship. The rest of the teams in the Big Ten, barring any unexpected strings of over-achievement, are destined to finish in the middle or bottom third of the conference. If Iowa can pull off an upset at Ohio State, they could very well win the conference. As I've said before, Iowa's performance in their last two games of the 2008 season was no fluke. I'll take the Hawkeyes to win the Big Ten, even without Shonn Greene or Jewel Hampton:

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Iowa	7-1	11-1
2	Ohio State	7-1	10-2
3	Michigan State	6-2	10-2
4	Penn State	6-2	10-2
5	Illinois	5-3	8-4
6	Northwestern	5-3	9-3
7	Michigan	3-5	6-6
8	Minnesota	2-6	5-7
9	Wisconsin	2-6	4-8
10	Purdue	1-7	3-9
11	Indiana	0-8	3-9

JG - The only way to fairly make these predictions, is to print out EVERY game, predict them, and then tabulate. Give me two hours and I'll be back here.....

And I'm back. A few principles and ideas permeate my predictions: (1) the loss of Jewel Hampton is devastating to Iowa's team; (2) Michigan had a significant infusion of talent and experience, and the team is having a "me against the world" moment - those cannot be understated for 18-22 year old men (of course, if they don't start fast this season will be a 3 win disaster again); (3) Central and Western Michigan are going to beat up on the Big Ten (Michigan State, in particular); (4) Northwestern's schedule is incredibly favorable this year; (5) Wisconsin's is not, plus, Bret Bielema is their coach; and (6) Illinois will be the best team in the conference, but they'll lose to Missouri and Cincinnati out of conference.

Upset of the year: Michigan over Ohio State (November 22nd).

Best game of the year: Illinois defeating Penn State (October 3rd).

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Northwestern	6-2	10-2
2	Penn State	6-2	10-2
3	Michigan	6-2	10-2
4	Ohio State	6-2	9-3
5	Illinois	6-2	8-4
6	Michigan State	5-3	6-6
7	Minnesota	4-4	7-5
8	Iowa	3-5	7-5
9	Wisconsin	1-7	5-7
10	Purdue	1-7	3-9
11	Indiana	0-8	2-10

Based upon averaging out our respective predictions, the TDG consensus for the 2009 Big Ten standings is as follows:

RANK	TEAM
1	Penn State
2	Ohio State
3	Iowa
4	Illinois (tie)
5	Northwestern (tie)
6	Michigan State
7	Michigan
8	Minnesota
9	Wisconsin
10	Purdue
11	Indiana

The TDG consensus on the 2009 schedule

GopherNation — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 16:30:12 -0000

Now that we have completed the way too early / almost timely previews of the 2009 schedule I want to run through the entire schedule with the TDG staff and put out our official predictions. This is kind of like we are the American Idol judges (I'm Simon, Buck is Randy and JG is clearly Paula if anyone is curious) and we are going to determine if the Gophers are "going to Hollywood baby!" And by Hollywood, I mean Pasadena or Orlando or anywhere as long as it's in January. So we'll go game-by-game and each of us will give our thumbs up or thumbs down, two out of three thumbs up means a TDG predicted win (be sure to bookmark this post and come back to praise/ridicule us in November).

@ Syracuse - Sept. 5

GN -The Gophers and Gopher fans have been looking forward to getting to see football outdoors, so we begin the season by heading back into a Dome. This one will have a slightly different result than our last game under a roof. Syracuse is not as bad as they were last year, but Paulus will still be adjusting to game speed and the team will struggle early. Gophers win by double digits.

BB - Paulus was an excellent quarterback prospect coming out of high school, but he's now a few years removed. Remember, Syracuse defeated a very talented but poorly coached Notre Dame team last year. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Syracuse program is in disarray. Adjusting to a new offensive scheme and new defensive coordinators will cause a few hiccups for Minnesota, and this game will be closer than many predict. Beware the ESPN footage of Greg Paulus' triumphant return to football. The betting line has the Gophers at about 7 point favorites over the Orangemen, and I think Syracuse will beat the spread but lose the game. Gophers win 28-24. (1-0 record)

JG - If I'm Paula, do I still get to work here? In a segue, a rule of thumb in football is generally this: it's probably not a good thing if a point guard can transfer in and take over your starting QB position. I get the feeling it'll take about one quarter for the Gophers to figure out Paulus and this offense. By the fourth quarter, Paulus will probably be wishing he was back on the Duke bench. Minnesota will win this game by at least 25 points. (1-0).

Air Force - Sept. 12

GN - TRAP GAME, TRAP GAME! The Gophers cannot overlook Air Force. This isn't a MAC team, the Mountain West has a history of beating BCS teams and Air Force is fully capable of beating the Gophers. This team will be very disciplined and will take advantage of us if we get out of position and do not play fundamentally sound. This game scares me but at this point I am nothing but optimistic. Gopher wins a close one (2-0).

BB - Air Force is a tough running, well disciplined team. Last year, they nearly defeated Utah early in the season. A young defense may become frustrated by repetitive running plays, and make a few mistakes. However, Air Force was scheduled as the new stadium home opener for a reason. Gophers win 17-10. (2-0 record)

JG - This is the kind of team the Gophers traditionally has problems with: tough, disciplined, hard-nosed. The team returns about 2/3 of their starters and rushes the ball 77% of the time. Still, it's not their stadium that's opening on September 12th. The game will be low-scoring, but the Gophers will win. (2-0).

California - Sept. 19

GN - I'm on board the Cal bandwagon this year. They are experienced, have some big time players on both sides of the ball and I think they have a great shot at winning the Pac-10 title. This is a home game so it may not be our toughest game on the schedule but this may very well be the best team we face all year. Gophers lose and hopefully the time change and home field advantage (?) will help us to keep it close. (2-1)

BB - California is a great football team, with one of the best running backs in the country. Jahvid Best will run wild against the Gophers. I'll predict 300+ all purpose yards. Let's hope that this game doesn't start a cascade of lost confidence that carries into the next week. California wins 42-10. (2-1 record)

JG - And, thud. This is undoubtedly a trap game for Cal - the equivalent of a 9am start for these guys, with Oregon and USC, on the road, as the next two games on the schedule. Remember as well that we all saw what happened last year against Maryland. Unfortunately, we all saw what happened last year against Maryland and I'm pretty sure Jeff Tedford has circled this game for full attention. Reports out of Cal practice are: speed and power. I'm not sure Minnesota can keep up with these guys. Cal will win by 7. (2-1).

@ Northwestern - Sept. 26

GN - Northwestern is in the same boat as Minnesota. Both should be better than they were a year ago but nobody is sure what exactly that will translate to. This is the type of game we have to win if Brewster wants to demonstrate that his team is truly improved. Northwestern is no slouch and their defense is much better than most people give them credit for. But I do believe the Gophers are better and barring a crazy hail-mary, pick-6 or miracle 4th qtr comeback (seriously how many lives do they have?), I'm going to break from my cohorts below and this one is a W. (3-1)

BB - The Gophers could very well suffer from a post-California defeat hangover versus Northwestern. Northwestern has one of the best coaches in the Big Ten with Pat Fitzgerald, and they will be prepared for a battle in Chicago. Minnesota will keep this one close against a Northwestern team with lesser talent, but the moral defeat of the California game will prevent them from playing their best football. Due to the home field advantage and a California hangover, Northwestern will win 24-21. (2-2 record)

JG - First Big Ten road game against one of Minnesota's bogey teams. Supposedly, Mike Kafka knows how to throw the ball pretty well, which scares me given what we saw out of his running. I trust Pat Fitzgerald more than I trust Tim Brewster. Minnesota loses on a last-minute safety. (2-2).

Wisconsin - Oct. 3

GN - Home game, rivalry game and this is the game that will secure Brewster's job. Year three and he has to win one of the rivalry trophies. Wisconsin isn't a guarantee by any stretch but this is the game circled on the calendar of many on the roster. I was there, I saw their faces last year in Madison and that one hurt bad. This game is played with some serious emotion (on both sides) but the Gophers get back the Axe! (4-1)

BB - The Gophers will recover at home versus a Wisconsin team that has been headed in the wrong direction the last few years. The TCF Bank Stadium home field advantage will bring the axe back to Minnesota, and may increase the heat to the seat of Bret Bielema. Adam Weber and/or Marqueis Gray will exploit the Badgers' secondary. Gophers win a close one with a defensive stand on the final drive by a score of 20-18. (3-2 record)

JG - This will be the first time in 20 years that the Badgers don't travel 20,000 to Minneeapolis for a football game. They'll feel it. Also, Bret Bielema is their coach and I trust him about as far as I can throw John Clay. Gophers win by 3. Axe me. (3-2).

Purdue - Oct. 10

GN -Hammer and Rails thinks this will be a unified team that will be greater than the sum of their parts. But at home this game cannot be a loss. There may be some looking past the Boilermakers, but if this Gopher team thinks they are good enough to look past anybody then this season will be lost before we get to week 6. Ultimately too many freshmen and sophomores playing for Purdue. They may be building for the future, but the Gophers are more talented and better win. (5-1)

BB - Purdue will be adjusting to the loss of Joe Tiller, and will visit TCF Bank Stadium with a team featuring mediocre talent. Minnesota will have a strong showing versus the Boilermakers for Homecoming. Gophers win 32-21. (4-2 record)

JG - Now THIS is the Gophers' trap game. Homecoming against a supposed doormat, but we know little about what Danny Hope is building in West LaFayette. While I have trepidation, I predict a 14-point victory for Minnesota (4-2).

@ Penn State - Oct. 17

GN - Two losses are coming. If the Gophers are in fact 5-1 coming into this game, then there will be higher expectations. But this will be a loss. It pains me to say it but remaining competitive is progress. At some point I don't want to have to say that but this year, that is the case. I think Gophers lose this one fairly big. (5-2)

BB - Penn State is loaded with talent, and Happy Valley is a tough place to play on the road. No one is giving the Gophers much of a chance in this game, including me. Penn State features talented 5th year seniors and accomplished future NFL talent. Also, Dan Nystrom graduated a few years ago and won't be eligible to kick the winning field goal. Nittany Lions win big 35-14. (4-3 record)

JG - I predicted a victory in my preview and I'm not shying away now. Penn State travels to the workout monsters in Ann Arbor the week after this game. Penn State is young at the wideout and defensive secondary positions. They should be exploited - this is the game where Jedd Fisch makes his money. Gophers by 4. (5-2).

@ Ohio State - Oct. 24

GN - Another loss and don't try to pursued yourself otherwise. I think this one is relatively close. After getting stomped by Penn State I think the Gophers refocus and come out ready to be road warriors this week. It won't be enough but this one will be closer than expected. (5-3)

BB - Visting Ohio State after playing in Happy Valley? Why not run a marathon the day after finishing a triathlon? The Gophers could very well be facing two Heisman candidates this season in California's Jahvid Best and Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor. Pryor will put on a Heisman-caliber show for the highlight reels. Jim Tressel doesn't usually run up the score, so the Buckeyes' second team plays most of the second half and Ohio State wins 32-20. (4-4 record)

JG - And the thud begins for the Gophers. The last time the Buckeyes had this many starters to replace they played for the national title. I'm not picking against them here. Ohio State by 21. (5-3).

Michigan State - Oct. 31

GN - This is the one game on the schedule with which I have no idea what to do. The Gophers return home after a brutal road stretch and I Michigan State is tough but they aren't going to win the league or anything. Or maybe the Spartans have the pieces to be the third best team in the league and this is one of the road games they have to win to achieve that status. Since I'm the optimist around here I'm going to say they never get comfortable with a QB and their lack of studs on the defensive line allows the Gophers to generate some offense. Gophers win one they shouldn't. (6-3)

BB - This home-field battle will be between two coaches that were hired to rebuild their respective programs in 2007. Mark Dantonio has done a great job of recruiting at Michigan State, as has Tim Brewster at Minnesota. Unfortunately for Gopher fans, Dantonio has better upperclassmen from the previous regime. Michigan State wins a close one 34-30. (4-5 record)

JG - For Michigan State, see Air Force. Mark Dantonio will scowl his way into town on the back of owning recruiting in the state of Michigan. Freshman running backs Caper and Baker will run wild, and this game will be won by MSU by 3 with a bunch of zombies in the stands. Literally. It's Halloween you know (no, the BTN didn't know.) (5-4).

Illinois - Nov. 7

GN - Originally I had this as a win. I think Juice is vastly overrated as a quarterback, but I greatly underrate him as s football player. The guy is dangerous and can generate a ton of offense (he's just not a very good passer). We won this on the road a year ago and I feel like it left a bad taste in the mouths of the Illini. They should roll into TCF with a three-game win streak and enough confidence to take care of the Gophers. (6-4)

BB - Illinois will be out for blood after being upset by the Gophers last year at home. Ron Zook is a relentless coach, and he'll have his team in top form for this matchup. Minnesota will keep this one close in a back-and-forth game, but Illinois will still be able to field more mature and developed talent for the game. Illinois wins 31-24. (4-6 record)

JG - I gave my tickets to this game in 2007 to my sister in law and her husband. They reported back that they had crushes on Rashard Mendenhall. I believe that game Illinois rushed for 870 yards. Something close. While I think their defense is porous, they have an axe to grind over 2008. They'll win here by 10. (5-5).

South Dakota State- Nov. 14

GN - seriously, if we lose this game I will exclusively cover Gopher volleyball until basketball season starts. I'm not kidding, if we lose this game no more football coverage until the2010 season (even that may be in doubt). Gophers win by 28 and we get to see a lot of the underclassmen. (7-4)

BB - South Dakota State will not be able to match up versus the Gophers. Marqueis Gray should be seeing a significant number of touches by this point in the season, and Minnesota should have an outstanding offensive performance. Gophers win big 42-17. (5-6 record)

JG - GN, we have to cover football in 2010 because the Song Girls, Joe Paterno's glasses, Terrelle Pryor's Porsche, and the Pig currently in Iowa (along with Floyd of Rosedale) come to the BANKVAULT. Minnesota by 50, by the way. (6-5).

@ Iowa- Nov. 21

GN - Way too many reasons to pick Iowa here. 55-0, on the road, very good offensive line, very good defense and 55-0. Iowa was not 55 points better than Minnesota last year and I'll be shocked if we get destroyed like that again this year, but I'll be equally as shocked if we win. (7-5)

BB - First, Shonn Greene was an above average running back who was playing college ball at the age of 23 years old. Why was he a Heisman candidate? Iowa had, and still has, an outstanding offensive line to run behind. Iowa also had the second best recruiting class in the entire Big Ten in 2005, and many of these players are now 5th year seniors. While the Gophers did play flat against Iowa, the 55-0 loss was no fluke. Iowa followed up that game by trouncing South Carolina. Iowa has a good coach in Kirk Ferentz who isn't afraid to run up the score. Expect Iowa to compete with Ohio State and Penn State for the Big Ten title. Hawkeyes win 38-17. (5-7 record)

JG - I don't care if Itali O'Seamus is running the ball, I will never bet against Kirk Ferentz after 55-0. At least, until I'm given reason to. Iowa by 14. (6-6).

The Consensus?

GN predicts 7-5 - I guess someone had to be even a little optimistic here. 7-5 with a 4-4 conference record will be solid improvement. Alamo Bowl (or Champps Sports depending on BCS situation) is the destination in my world. I think 7-5 is optimistic but not crazy. This team could finish anywhere from 8-4 down to 4-8, so I'm on the upper side of what could happen. Ultimately we are an experienced team. The defense should be tough up the middle against the run. Our corners should be solid against the pass while our safeties and DEs are areas of some concern. Offensively we have some playmakers that we aren't used to seeing. But the season will hinge on our offensive line. If they struggle similar to how they struggled last year then the thought of 7-5 will be laughable in a few months. If the line is able to create some running lanes and give Weber time to find Decker or Stoudermire or Green or Carpenter then this offense will be better than everyone is expecting. Points will flow like milk and honey :). I'm optimistic they'll be a minor surprise and this team will finish with a respectable 7-5 record.

BB predicts 5-7 - Based upon the strength of schedule and the youth of the Gopher squad, 5-7 is a reasonable expectation for Minnesota. If the Gophers are to finish the season better than 5-7 with one of the toughest schedules in college football, not only will several young players need to step up and play beyond their years but the coaching staff will deserve credit for defeating teams with more talented rosters. From an unbiased perspective, anything better than 4-8 should be considered a respectable season given the lack of depth on the Gopher roster (the running backs, offensive line, and defensive backs) and a grueling schedule against several well coached, mature, experienced, and talented teams. While 7-5 is a remote possibility, 3-9 could be just two or three injuries away from becoming a reality.

JG predicts 6-6 - Boy, I realize that I waffled here. But I think 6-6 is the upside this year. The key for Minnesota is to avoid bad losses. The worst case I see is the Gophers lose all the games I predicted, as well as Air Force, Purdue and Penn State. That, and they aren't even competitive. If that happens, or if a losing record is followed by a USC special (see Nebraska 2007), Brewster may get the Golden Parachute out of here back to Mack Brown's staff (given that Tuberville, Fulmer, Dungy, Gruden, Shanahan and Schottenheimer are unemployed, Brewster's got to prove it now). However, mediocrity will do for now, with a Pizza Pizza Bowl berth against Western Michigan as this year's "reward."

Time for you all to make your predictions. Please put your predictions in the comments so we can make fun of you in December.

The McTeford Trophy - Heisman Hype in Big Ten Land?

grahamfiller10 — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:15:17 -0000

In Year Two of Bradford/Tebow/McCoy, easily changed to McTeford to save time, the Big Ten and the rest of the nation seems to be on the outside looking in. According to all the Playstation-like statistics put up last year, this is perfectly logical. But is it wrong to flat out say that no Big Ten player could win the Heisman Trophy?

As I happen to be in a giving and sympathetic mood today, here are the Big Ten players I could possibly imagine making waves in the Heisman race: Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Terrelle Pryor, Navarro Bowman, Daryll Clark, Jewel Hampton, Evan Royster, Greg Jones. Obviously most of these are longshots (um, defensive players?), but I wanted to plug them into my McTeford Heisman table to look at the possibilities anyways.

	Heisman Hype?	Stat Friendly Offense?	Probable BCS Team?	Game to Shine
Pryor	Yes	Yes	Yes	USC
Clark	Yes	Yes	Yes	OSU
Juice	-	Yes	-	PSU, Mizz
Benn	-	Yes	-	PSU, Mizz
Bowman	-	-	Yes	OSU
Jewel	-	-	-	PSU
Royster	-	Yes	Yes	OSU
Jones	-	-	-	ND, UM

Defensive players won't even take a look inside the Heisman race without some spectacular plays and a highly ranked team, so Jones and Bowman are going to have a tough time here. As for Jewel Hampton, I read a rumor today suggesting he might redshirt because of injuries. Well, that can't be great, but Shonn Greene's miraculous 2008 year showed me that apparently it's possible for an Iowa RB to explode onto the national consciousness due to a talented offensive line and a smashmouth attitude. The two Illini's studs (who have their own Heisman website dontcha know) have little chance due to the rollercoaster ride that is Illinois football, but each player obviously holds great potential.

Help us Terrelle Pryor, you may be the Big Ten's only Heisman hope.

As for Clark, the cake schedule will hold potential for big stats. However, the Spread HD was incredibly balanced last year, so it seems a long shot that the Nittany Lions would become a one dimensional offense and thus push tons of yards and touchdowns toward Clark or Royster. Interestingly enough, Clarks outstanding 2008 season pales in comparison to Troy Smith's Heisman season of 2006, which in turn pales in comparison to McTeford's numbers from last year. So it's all relative.

That brings us to Him, or Terrelle Pryor. A weak receiving corp and unspectacular running backs will make Pryor's legs and arms the most important features of the Buckeye offense. This in turn will make him the focal point of any statistical wonders that come out of Columbus this year. So yeah, he's got the legs, the Vince Young comparison, and a much improved arm. He may be the Midwest's only contender.