SB Nation - Jewel Hampton

Not the 12-0 We Wanted Most, But a 12-0 We'll Gladly Take

Oops Pow Surprise — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:05:29 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

WHO WANTS STEEL RIBS OR STEEL HAM? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

So. A month ago, if you'd been told that "12-0" was happening today, you'd probably be getting all giddy and buying a ticket for Pasadena. Of course, that 12-0 didn't come to fruition, on account of the Stanzageddon and all, but we do have the next best thing: Iowa 12, Minnesota 0.

Was it ugly? Christ yes, it was ugly; Iowa was 1-12 on 3rd down conversions, and theirs wasn't even the ugliest offense of the game.

Minnesota's offense, on the other hand, was one of the worst we've seen all season long. The two Minnesota quarterbacks - Adam Weber and MarQueis Gray - combined to go 14-42 through the air for 153 yards and one interception. That's an average of 3.6 yards per attempt, which is melt-your-retinas ugly. Oh, and Weber lost two of his three fumbles. Yes, Minnesota accounted for more yards than Iowa--201 to 171--but they needed 18 more plays to do so, meaning Iowa's own train wreck of an offense was at least more efficient. Sort of.

As for that Iowa offense, what's there to say? They clearly missed Adam Robinson's running ability when he went down with a re-injury of his ankle; he should be back in plenty of time for the bowl, so no real harm done here. But Brandon Wegher, from Dakota Dunes, South Dakota, one of the great town names in America (/Musberger'd), is really not an every-down back yet, and has no business trying to fill that role right now. That's not to say he's a bust or anything nearly as dour; it's just that there's a reason why, if all the tailbacks were healthy, he'd be about 4th or 5th string right now (Jewel Hampton, Robinson, Jeff Brinson, and maybe Paki Bomb). He's just a true freshman. Most true freshmen aren't ready to run the rock 25 times in a game--especially when they're evidently so green with the playbook that they're telegraphing every run play before the snap.

In fact, if this game proved anything, it's that injuries have wrecked any hope or semblance of consistency for the Iowa offense; James Vandenberg was the 20th different player to start on offense for Iowa this season. For the Iowa defense? 15--and two of those extra four starters were at the same position (Greg Castillo and Willie Lowe, for Shaun Prater at LCB). That's remarkably important; continuity is a big deal in a team sport like football, and as much as Kirk Ferentz and his staff preach the importance of the "next man in," with the notable exception of Riley Reiff, there's always been a marked dropoff in performance from starter to backup.

Thus, getting healthy for the bowl game and getting the best possible lineup (Bulaga, Dace Richardson, Rafael Eubanks, Reiff, and Kyle Calloway on the line; A-Rob and Brett Morse in the backfield; Trey Stross, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and Tony Moeaki as receivers) would be a welcome development for the offense. How many times has that ideal lineup been healthy and starting all at once? Twice: at Wisconsin and about the first 10 minutes of at Michigan State.

And let's not even get started on losing Hampton and Brinson before the season.

Yes, the above lineup is pretty unimpeachably Iowa's best; while Marvin McNutt is obviously talented, he's done his best as the third receiver instead of starting at wideout--think back to Mo Brown in 2002, for example. Unless something bad happens in practice between now and the bowl game, the Iowa offense is going to look a lot better, and it'll be independent of the playcalling (which always looks a lot better when the players can reliably execute it).

As for the defense, they were utterly lights-out; Weber was harassed throughout the day, and it's to his credit that he was "only" sacked five times. The Iowa defensive line combined for 7.0 TFL and 4 of the 5 sacks, and they abused the offensive line so thoroughly that Bob Griese was left questioning everything about the Gopher unit and their commitment to the sport. That was nice.

Really, this was as vintage a 2009 Iowa game as any this season. The offense struggled through injuries to key contributors but put up enough points to take a double-digit lead, and the defense choked the opposing offense to death long before the final whistle sounded. It's never been pretty, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with this: it's another 10-win season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Well done, men. Well done indeed.

Now let's go cook up some steel bacon for dinner.

A Lament: You'll Be Coming Down

Bama Hawkeye — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:07:35 -0000

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 9-1 (5-1). Somehow, in the aftermath of Saturday's loss to Northwestern, that's been lost. Their record is what I predicted prior to the season. They still control their own destiny for a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl berth. And yet, Saturday's loss still leaves an empty feeling that I'm still struggling to explain.

It's not that Iowa lost. Lord knows, I never really believed that Iowa would go undefeated. I had planned out the article talking about the number of good Iowa teams that saw dreams crushed in Columbus. I never stopped knowing that this magical run would end against Ohio State. It was fun to dream, but that's all it ever was - nothing real. And yet, there was something about this season. "This is a special team," my wife said before the Michigan State game. Of course, she was right. And that's why it hurts so much. It's not that it ended; it's that it wasn't supposed to end like this.

It wasn't supposed to end like this. Not with an injury.

I know; championship teams require depth. They need to be able to overcome an injury to a player. Iowa was unable to do that on Saturday. The unfair thing is that Iowa was forced to overcome this hurdle so many times this season. When starting cornerback Jordan Bernstine went down for the year in training camp, the team overcame it. When starting running back Jewel Hampton went down for the year in training camp, the team overcame it. When second string running back Jeff Brinson was lost for the season, the team overcame it. When starting left tackle Bryan Bulaga was lost for three games with a thyroid condition, the team overcame it. When third string running back Adam Robinson was knocked out for the last two games (and possibly the season), the team overcame it. When starting punt returner Paul Chaney, Jr. was knocked out for the season, the team overcame it. When starting wide receiver and punt returner Colin Sandeman was lost for the season, the team overcame it. When starting guard Dace Richardson was lost for the season, the team overcame it. When starting safety Brett Greenwood was lost for the season, the team overcame it.

But, this one was too much. Coming off of the best two quarters of football he had played all year, Ricky Stanzi's injury proved to be one that the Hawkeyes could not overcome. Maybe here is the lesson from the close wins over UNI and Arkansas State. You need some blowouts. You need to get your backup quarterback a chance to play. If you can't do that, you'll see regrettable, yet understandable, performances like the one that James Vandenberg provided on Saturday.

It wasn't supposed to end like this. Not with a phantom holding call.

Look ref, I watched Rafael Eubanks's block over and over again. It was clean. He had two hands in front of the defensive lineman. Eubanks pancaked him. He never lost front-to-front forward-moving contact with him. He never pulled him down. When they showed the replay, Bob Griese's response was perfect. "Wow. Not much to see there." He probably wanted to say that Eubanks flattened him like a Panchero's quesadilla, but realizing that "Rafael" sounded Hispanic (and newly retrained by Disney) thought better of it. The call negated Brandon Wegher's 63 yard touchdown run and a 17-14 3rd Quarter Hawkeye lead. Somehow I knew at that point that it was over.

It wasn't supposed to end like this. Not with double schadenfreude upon the Hawkeye fans.

Throughout the miserable 2007 season, and again in the first five games of 2008, the Iowa fans were relentless in their negativity toward Jake Christensen. He was a golden boy who washed out. He had an NFL father, a 5-star ranking, and expectations of the fan base put upon him. And he failed. Yes, he had horrible circumstances. Yes, he did what he could, but before the halfway point of last season, it was apparent that the less-heralded Stanzi was the better quarterback. The four wins that ended the campaign cemented his role as the team's starter. Jake transfered to Eastern Illinois, a 1-AA school, so that he could play during his Senior year. Flash-forward to Saturday: do the Hawks lose if Jake Christensen comes into the game in the second quarter? I'd have liked their chances for victory a lot more. To rub it in just a touch, there were reports that Jake was at the Hawkeyes' game on Saturday; it was EIU's bye week.

Finally, for two straight season, the Hawkeyes' fans have been relentless toward Penn State. Yes, Iowa has won 7 of 8 times that they have played this millennium. Yes, Iowa reveled in ruining their season one year ago. And yet, we ignored the chirping from Northwestern. It didn't matter how the pesky Wildcats - far inferior to our mighty Iowa - had won three of the last four contests. They were justNorthwestern. And just one year after Penn State's foil spoiled the Lions' perfect season, Iowa's foil spoiled the Hawks' magical run.

It wasn't supposed to end like this. But maybe it was. Maybe that's part of what makes college football so far superior to the Sunday product. College football has scrappy underdogs who can dramatically march toward a magical season. College football also has scrappy underdogs who can't quite get there and break your heart.

My wife and I attended the Alabama/LSU game on Saturday. In the 4th Quarter, as yet another Tiger was helped off the field during an injury timeout, they announced several scores from around the country. The SEC fans dutifully cheered as they announced Notre Dame's loss to Navy. They announced Iowa's loss next, and the cheers were louder. My wife's eyes teared up at that point. Not because Iowa had lost. We had come to grips with that already. But for a moment, even fans in the isolated SEC cared about Iowa enough to root against us. For a brief moment, Iowa REALLY mattered. And when we woke up Sunday morning, Iowa didn't anymore. That's the part of the ending that hurts the worst - and it's that emptiness that is going to take a long time to fill.

A-Paki-Lypse Soon? Adam Robinson Shelved for the Season

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa's Adam Robinson (32) is stopped Michigan State's Jerel Worthy during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Browse more photos »

This just won't stop. Adam Robinson's ankle has exploded:

Redshirt freshman running back Adam Robinson likely will miss the rest of the regular season after suffering an ankle injury in Saturday's win against Michigan State.

He registered career-highs in both attempts (27) and rushing yards (109) against the Spartans.

"There's a chance we could get him back," Ferentz said, "but a running back with a bad ankle, it's not a good thing."

Ferentz likened Robinson's injury to the one that kept tight end Tony Moeaki out for several games this year.

This, of course, means the running back depth chart is as follows:

Brandon "Tackled as soon as he gets the handoff" Wegher
Paki O'Meara

I'm Paki O'Meara!

And that's it for healthy bodies. Jeff Brinson is still on crutches--though that didn't stop Ned--and Jewel Hampton has expressed no desire to play with a knee that's still about six months away from recovery. Pansy.

There are options, though none of them involve handing the ball to Casey McMillan and diving out of the way as he swats hapless defenders into Row 40. You know the NCAA would just make it illegal at halftime.

No, it looks like true freshman Brad Rogers is going to get some consideration. You may remember him from this season's recruiting class, checking in at 5'8" and a robust 230 pounds. Those numbers on a 2-star prospect don't sound like someone who's ready to step into a Big Ten backfield from day 1, but as Kirk Ferentz explained at his presser today, Rogers has made strides:

Q. Are Brad Rogers and Josh Brown in the mix?

COACH FERENTZ: Everybody is in the mix. If they are out there they are in the mix right now. I would say Rogers is ahead of Brown right now.

Q. What about Jeff Brinson?

COACH FERENTZ: He’s not – I think that probably could be the rest of the season he’ll be out, too.

Q. Nine games into a season, you would still take off a redshirt?

COACH FERENTZ: We traveled there last week, could not have for foreseen that kind of complication, but we traveled him and told him he may be going in the ballgame so be ready. Probably because he’s from Toledo, got four tickets to the game, so worked out perfectly.

But you know, if he’s got to go in, he’ll go in and do a good job. Really he’s impressed us over the last eight weeks. He came in a little heavy and a little out of shape but that’s not unusual for first-year players. He’s really worked hard and he looks 100% better than did he two months ago, so I’m really impressed with his attitude and his work ethics.

100% better than 2 stars is, like, 4 stars. Problem solved, bitches.

If Rogers can play, of course, he's in for a few carries; recall that Rogers was traveling to East Lansing with the team as a reward for his play in practice even before A-Rob was hurt. Further, Wegher hasn't shown any indication of being ready to take 20 snaps a game and be productive (though, as we mentioned earlier, it doesn't help that there's an unblocked tackler immediately on him every damn time). And as for O'Meara, well, that UNI game remains the only time this season an Iowa running back has lost a fumble. Not exemplary work, there.

So it'll probably be a tailback-by-committee approach from here on out until one of the Three Wise Men (note: we cannot vouch for the wisdom of any of the three running backs) establishes himself as the de facto number one. Let's hope the injury trend stops here; there aren't many people left on the offense that Iowa can afford to lose from here on out.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Iowa

LVS — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:32:02 -0000

[Given the time constraints, shorter than usual. --LVS.]

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the IOWA HAWKEYES

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

7:05 PM ET, BIG TEN NETWORK

WEATHER: 42 DEGREES, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN

Operation "make the season respectable" has largely succeeded following wins in the last three weeks. The opportunity to make the season special begins this week, as a win on Saturday would essentially put MSU in command of the Big Ten title race. The first two years under Mark Dantonio have yielded little grist for complaints; one of the legitimate gripes, however, is that we haven't played well in "big" games -- namely, those in which we're less talented but not absolutely overmatched. (Last season's debacles against Ohio State and Penn State being examples 1 and 1A, of course.) Well, the biggest opportunity of all has arrived. Iowa is undefeated but not unbeatable, and has historically struggled in East Lansing. A win on Saturday would not merely confirm a complete 180 in the season's fortunes -- not unlike what Iowa did last year, by the way -- but also signify a giant step forward for the program as a whole. Can we do it? I'm not wholly optimistic, but a big result isn't out of our reach.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . they're playing a offense whose statistical mediocrity perhaps belies an ability to get things done when it's most needed. Iowa is currently sixth in the conference in both passing offense (47th nationally) and efficiency 58th nationally), and ninth in the league (93rd nationally) in rushing. But, 2 things: having a great defense certainly can make up for mediocre offensive play, and when Rick Stanzi is on, this isn't a terrible offense after all.

And unfortunately for us, Stanzi's coming off probably his most consistent game of the year: a 17/23, 218 yard performance against Wisconsin which included an absolutely gorgeous touchdown throw to Tony Moeaki. The STANZIBALL meme is justified; just ask BHGP:

But holy smokes, is Ricky Stanzi ever trying to raise peoples' blood pressure. For the second straight week, Stanzi threw what we considered his worst, most definitive, Stanziest of the STANZIBALLs, this one a game-opener to Donovan Warren who, with a different set of rules, could have crawled into the end zone unmolested. [ . . . ]

Stanzi's antics have now directly cost the Hawkeyes a touchdown in three of the last four games, a Jarrett Lee-like display that ended a whole lot worse for LSU last season than it has for Iowa thus far. In those three games, each of whom was an unranked opponent now and at kickoff, the average margin of victory has been five points. Obviously, you can't take points off the board in the middle of the game and expect the rest of it to play out exactly the same, but if Iowa wins all three of those games by an average of 12 points instead, we've got a much better comfort level and maaaaybe a better ranking thus far. Probably a moot point unless Iowa wins in Columbus, but something worth pointing out all the same.

That was following the Michigan game, in which Stanzi hit the STANZIBALL nadir by throwing an absolute gift to Donovan Warren; our defense hasn't been the greatest at forcing turnovers, but if one comes gift-wrapped, that could make a big difference in the game.

Stanzi's primary receivers are WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and TE Tony Moeaki, both of whom had big games against Wisconsin: DJK (easier this way) had 8 catches for 134 yards, while Moeaki had 3 catches for 55 yards. Moeaki, in particular worries me; we've had all kinds of trouble defending good pass-catching tight ends this season (Kyle Rudolph and Garrett Graham, in particular) and Moeaki is probably better than either--he's finally showing the potential that's been wasted by injuries during the past few seasons, and in 4 games this season, he has 20 catches (to lead the team!) for 247 yards and four touchdowns. He's a very difficult matchup for our linebackers and safeties (6'5", 250); hopefully we have some sort of scheme to slow him down.

MSU linebacker Greg Jones said the plan of attack is pretty straight forward for stopping a duel-threat like Moeaki.

"He can only do so many things at one time - he's (either) gonna block or go out for a pass," Jones said. "He's gonna use his size to his advantage, and if I was that big I would too, so it's gonna make it pretty simple."

Do your thing, Greg.

Meanwhile, in the wake of Shonn Greene's departure and Jewel Hampton's season-killing injury, Iowa has done a passable job in the run game -- led by freshmen Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher:

RUSHING	GP-GS	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Robinson, Adam	7-6	108	541	21	520	4.8	5	43	74.3
Wegher, Brandon	7-0	81	327	36	291	3.6	3	28	41.6

Robinson's statistics include a 91 yard, 1 TD performance against Wisconsin. Given the way that Jerel Worthy and Colin Neely have been playing the past few weeks, I definitely think we can stop Iowa's ground game. I'd just rather that we don't make the mistake Michigan did and sell out to get there:

Speaking of the rush, hello half of the state of Michigan: if Michigan's game plan was explicitly "Make Stanzi beat us," they went about it the correct way. Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher were effectively minimized as threats, combining for 91 yards on 23 carries. Worse, the two garnered only three first downs on the ground (all Robinson in the third quarter), with Stanzi registering three of his own. That's not exactly the type of production that usually leads to Iowa scoring 30 points.
Fortunately, with Michigan putting 11 players, 4 couches, 3 cheerleaders, and Sad Michigan Girl in the box, that left the secondary very susceptible to big plays, and Moeaki's delay routes as the receivers ran off coverage led to two easy, easy touchdowns, the second of which accounted for Iowa's last points of the day.

Given our relative strength on run defense and the secondary's previous troubles, I'd much rather we do the converse: focus on stopping the pass and make the two freshman running backs beat us. (Sounds a lot like Iowa's probable game plan.) Of course, the two aren't mutually exclusive: cranking up the pass rush has gone a long way toward helping the secondary do its job; getting pressure at the line of scrimmage will obviously be beneficial for the run defense as well.

Finally, it's worth noting that we have 21 sacks in 7 games, and Iowa has allowed 15. Bryan Bulaga, Iowa's huge offensive lineman, is beastly when healthy, but he hasn't been all season, and looks to be a shadow of his former self. Please, please, please, get pressure on Stanzi.

Not our offense, but who cares!

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Ugh:

Big Ten Pass Efficiency Defense:

Rank	Name	Gm	Patt	Pcomp	PaPct	Int	IntPct	Yds	Ydsatt	Tds	TdPct	Rating	Win	Loss	Ties	Natl Rank
1	Iowa	7	215	106	49.30	15	6.98	1169	5.44	5	2.33	88.69	7	0	0	5

Big Ten Turnovers Gained:

Rank	Name	Turnovers Gained
1	Iowa	22

Big Ten Passes Intercepted:

Rank	Name	Passes Intercepted
1	Iowa	15

. . . and that's my agita about this game distilled into three tables. Iowa's pass defense forces tons of turnovers and makes good quarterbacks look absolutely horrible.

Darryl Clark's statistics are particularly scary. This is a very, very, very good Iowa secondary. Amari Spievey is an NFL player, Shaun Prater is solid and is additionally some sort of talisman for the defense (he didn't play in the defense's worst outings of the year), and the two safeties -- Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood -- have combined for 8 interceptions. Combine that with two excellent linebackers (A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer) and a havoc-wreaking defensive end (Adrian Clayborn) and . . . uh, yeah, you'll understand my pessimism during the BHGP podcast.

Giving Cousins time will be absolutely key; 3 of his 4 interceptions this year have come when he's pressured. If he's hurried, he's going to make mistakes and Iowa will capitalize. If he has time . . . it's not going to be pretty but I have enough faith in Cousins to believe that he'll be able to move the ball. Iowa only has 13 team sacks on the year -- not an overwhelming number for a defense of this caliber -- and we'll need to minimize that number on Saturday night.

Iowa's defense, on the other hand, can probably be run upon:

OPPONENT	ATTEMPTS	YARDS	TOUCHDOWNS
Northern Iowa	32	84	0
Iowa State	34	190	0
Arizona	25	148	0
Penn State	33	109	0
Arkansas State	25	80	0
Michigan	45	195	3
Wisconsin	33	87	1

(N.B.: John Clay wasn't exactly himself for most of the game last week.) Those aren't horrible numbers by any means, but they aren't lights-out, either -- sixth in the conference. If there was one week where we'd massively benefit from a breakout game by Larry Caper -- yep, this is it. If we can start picking up some yards on the ground, we might be able to get Greenwood and Sash to cheat up and thereby take away their ability to snag Cousins' passes away. (Also a worry: the ability of our freshman RBs to hold onto the ball. Please, no fumbles.)

That, ultimately, is my key to the game: we have to get something done on the ground; we weren't great last week against Northwestern, and that isn't going to cut it this week. Our passing game is very good, but their pass defense is better, and if Cousins has to throw the ball 40 times, this game is not going to end well.

FINAL PREDICTION: A few weeks ago, before Michigan went to Iowa City, Brian wrote this:

The prediction below is weird: it builds in what appears to be a 50-50 shot at Iowa having one more game-crippling mistake than Michigan. I think if M gets that game crippling mistake they will be in it at the end with a chance to win, possibly attempting to defend and Iowa game-winning drive. If they don't I think they end up in a hole and threaten to break out of it from time to time but never actually do so, with the cold and the crowd and the Iowa defense finally reining in Forcier when the game's on the line.

Of course, Michigan did get that game-crippling mistake, and Iowa still won. Iowa's resiliency has been remarkable. They were down early to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State, and yet, they didn't panic: they let their defense assert itself and chipped away until the other team, battered and broken, had nothing left. This is an awfully impressive team: by far the best we've played. They're not unbeatable, and we've been pretty resilient ourselves: we were 1-3, and now, if we win tomorrow, we're probably the favorites to win the conference. But to get there, we'll have to play much better than we have at any time this season -- a Michigan game-type effort, minus the 4th quarter collapse -- and we will have to be there to take pick up and take advantage of the giveaways that Iowa will almost inevitably make.

It's a night game, the team will be hyped, the atmosphere will be unbelievable, and we've got something BIG to play for. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we pulled this game off -- a la Wisconsin in ~~'05~~ '04 -- but to predict a win is just a step too far, I think. Iowa 24-23.

Simply Keanu: This week's Big Ten Power Poll

BoilerTMill — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 15:14:36 -0000

It is time to vote in the The Rivalry, Esq.'s Weekly Big Ten Power Poll. As promised, I am making my rankings this week comparison-style since all of them have been a hit so far. The real question going into the week though was what style should I use? I have only a one word answer for that:

Keanu

You see, the Big Ten this year is down. I know it. You know it. We all know it. When Penn State loses a home White Out game to the same Iowa team that struggle with Northern Iowa, it is a down year. That is why the Big Ten is like Keanu Reeves. It is a big name in terms of conferences, but the actual performance on the field can leave something to be desired. Just Keanu is not known for his range, the Big Ten is not known for its range against non-conference foes. Put us in the right spot (like games against ourselves) and you can have an entertaining product. Put the Big Ten in a big time role (like a BCS game) and it just isn't going to work out.

So, what follows are the Big Ten teams ranked according to a certain Keanu Reeves role. Let's face it, we all need a little more Keanu in our lives. This is my tribute to Big Ten football, the Keanu Reeves of major college football.

Whoa

1. Michigan - Neo (The Matrix) - Michigan gets the number one spot this week because they have the best win over anyone. It came over a healthy Notre Dame team. Sure, they barely got a win over Indiana, but anyone who watched that game knows that Indiana played a damn fine ballgame. Like Neo, Michigan is dressed up by fancy CGI (the spread option) with a Matrix-like QB (Denard Robinson) that relies on flash and shifty moves. It looks good when it is working, but if you look at the actual acting on the surface it is true Keanu in that it doesn't have a ton of range.

2.
Ohio State - Johnny Utah (Point Break) - I don't know why, but I have been obsessed with this movie lately. I am talking "wanting to buy it on Blu-Ray" obsessed. Johnny Utah fits in with Ohio State for more reasons than the fact that the character is a former OSU quarterback. They are the face of the Big Ten, but much like how you would trust Ohio State in a big game, would you really trust Keanu Reeves as an FBI agent? Now imagine Terrelle Pryor jumping out of a plane without a parachute to win a BCS title. The role of any Big Ten team in a BCS bowl is a lot like the role of Keanu in the stage hit Point Break Live!

3.
Iowa - Kevin Lomax (The Devil's Advocate) - Iowa had to have made some deal with the devil in order to be 4-0 right now. That is the only reasonable explanation. The Devil's Advocate, however, is a very good movie under the surface (mostly because of Pacino). The same is true with Iowa as a football team. Keanu's horrible Southern accent is like losing Jewel Hampton to a knee injury. It is terrible on the surface, but the whole product is still pretty good.

4.
Wisconsin - Jack Tavern (Speed) - "As long as we keep teams under 20 points per game we'll be fine." Can you picture Bret Bielema saying that like an evil Dennis Hopper to his team at halftime? I can. Keanu does virtually nothing in this movie except stand behind Sandra Bullock, yet he is still pretty good. It is the perfect vehicle for him. Wisconsin humming along at home is the perfect vehicle for them as well. Get them off the bus (Camp Randall Stadium) and who know what will happen.

5.
Minnesota - Ted Theodore Logan (Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure) - This is based on the coaching staff alone, as the idea of Tim Brewster's, "We're taking the Gopher Nation to Pasadena" is totally excellent! Brewster is a young coach too, so I am sure the movies are very fresh to him. Minnesota showed with Saturday's win at Northwestern that they can party on as long as they are well within their league. There is no word on if future society will be based on the teachings of Tim Brewster like the music of the Wyld Stallyns

6.
Penn State - John Constantine (Constantine) - I make this comparison because they are clearly tortured souls when it comes to playing Iowa. If you put them against anyone else they are certifiable badasses trying to make up for their shortcomings against the Hawkeyes. If they are facing Iowa though, that is like God deciding to punish them as he does Constantine in the film. I don't know what good they will need to do in order to be admitted to heaven of a perfect season under JoePa.

7.
Indiana - Shane Falco (The Replacements) - Indiana moves up even in defeat as they were very impressive this week. Much like Falco and the rest of the Replacements, absolutely nothing was expected of them. Instead, they are competing with the big boys and will likely have a much better season than expected. Keanu's acting in this film is not bad in the sports scenes, but some of his dialogue is dreadful. Plus, how much money would you pay to see the IU football team doing a rendition of I Will Survive led by Ben Chappell?

8.
Michigan State - Bob Arctor (A Scanner Darkly) - When I rented this movie, I expected so much more. I expected a total mind blow of a movie with a coked out Woody Harrelson as a cartoon and everything. Instead, I felt like I needed to be high in order to understand any of it. That is Michigan State in a nutshell. So much more was expected of them, especially their defense. Instead, they have yet to deliver. Like Keanu in this movie, no one really know what they are doing.

9. Northwestern - Alex Wyler (the Lake House) - Both have prominent roles set in Chicago. Both are cute stories that it is a stretch to believe. Both don't have many people showing up at their houses. Yes, I have seen this movie and yes, I thought the general idea behind it was good. The movie is like Northwestern though. They need more of the Keanu Reeves action Speed and less of the Keanu Reeves pithy dialogue. At least in both Keanu got with Sandra Bullock. What would Northwestern's equivalent be, a trip to Phoenix for the Insight Bowl?

10.
Purdue - Johnny (Johnny Mnemonic) - Johnny is a data trafficker who has an implant that allows him to securely store data too sensitive for regular computer networks. Purdue is a university skilled in technical aspects and computers. Johnny freaks out when he is given too much information in the film and Purdue freaks out and cannot close a game at the moment. Doesn't this sound familiar? I know I wish I had a memory chip in my head so I could simply erase the latest heartbreaking loss. Who is the Dolph Lundgren of our team? Just questions all around.

11.
Illinois - Klaatu (The Day The Earth Stood Still) - This was terrible. I went to see it in the theater and it is just about the only movie I wish I could unwatch. It's awful in every respect, just like watching the Illinois offense right now. No one knows what they are doing, yet they are trying to remake it like the 2007 offense. It is appropriate then that it is an awful remake of a classic. Keanu's wooden performance is a spot on parallel to Juice Williams' wooden quarterback play so far.

Non-conference opponents update:

Oregon (42-3 W over #6 Cal) - I guess our two point loss out there doesn't look so bad now. I get the feeling we will take a lot of credit for our close losses so far, but I want a win, dammit! In my mind, Oregon has a one game season now. If they beat USC in Eugene on Halloween they have no excuse for not winning the Pac-10.

Northern Illinois (L 31-34 to Idaho) - Looks like the Huskies weren't immune to the hangover, either. Our loss to them now looks much worse after they lost to probably the worst Division 1-A team of the past decade. This was a dominating game by the Vandals, as NIU had to stage a furious comeback to make the score as close as it was.

Toledo (41-31 W at Florida International) - This was a nice road win for the Rockets over two fairly evenly matched teams. The win over Toledo is still looking to be better than expected. I just wish we had a few more to go with it.

The Takeaway: Penn State

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

2 months ago: In this photo taken Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, Penn State running back Evan Royster, left, is taken down by Iowa defenders Pat Angerer, center, and Karl Klug, right, during the first half of their NCAA football game in State College, Pa. Iowa's defense handed the Nittany Lions their first loss for the second-straight season. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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Sure, Iowa just choked out Penn State, 21-10. But how much do we really know? What was really important about beating Penn State? What does it all mean, Basil? The Takeaway has the answer.

Goodbye, Kroul and Unusual Punishment; hello, Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Good merciful heavens, the defensive line: There isn't a single starter on the line that didn't affect the game in a big way. Broderick Binns? 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and consecutive ownings of DeOn'tae Pannell that led to an Iowa safety (this sealed Pannell's fate; he was benched shortly thereafter). Christian Ballard? Probably the most consistent resident of the PSU backfield, and he tipped the last INT to A.J. Edds, effectively ending Penn State's hopes. Karl Klug? Multiple big plays, not the least of which was recovering a Penn State fumble in Iowa territory in the fourth quarter... a good 30-40 yards or so from his spot on the field at the snap. And Adrian Clayborn? Oh, only two tackles and O HAI GAME WINNING TOUCHDOWN K THANX. Between the four, they badgered their linemen, the PSU backs, and Daryll Clark into enough miscues that when it came time to reclaim the lead, the Penn State offense really had no chance down the stretch.

This is, of course, to take nothing from the back 7. Where do you want to start? Amari Spievey atoning for his first-play scorching with more lights-out tackling and coverage? Shaun Prater for baiting Clark into a bad interception with the Nittany Lions in field goal range? Defensive player of the week Pat Angerer for his 14 tackles, pick--and its 38-yard return that set up Iowa's only offensive TD--and forced fumble? And didn't it seem like Jeremiha Hunter (12 tackles) was in on just about every play--especially those near the line of scrimmage? In fact...

Good merciful heavens, the entire defense: It's hard to think so after watching the UNI near-disaster, but might this defensive unit be even better than the epic 2002 and 2003 units? Not to overstate the obvious, but think of this: there's no good way to attack them.

Experts don't even recommend punting as a safe deterrent.

You want to pass? Great; here's the last three starting quarterbacks to challenge the Iowa secondary: 26-68, 1 TD, 327 yards, 8 INT. Further--not that removing data is a great way to bolster your point, but bear with us for one second--excepting the 79-yard bomb to Powell, and combining lost fumbles and INTs into a generic turnover stat, here's an average of what the last 3 starting QBs have accomplished against the Iowa defense: 8-22, 83 yards, 0 TD, 3 TO. You can add decimals if you need to, but whatever.

Then there's the run game. As Bellanca has noted multiple times, the game that started this win streak--last year's win over PSU--is also the last game in which Iowa has given up a rushing touchdown. Often, as with Minnesota and ISU, teams never come close. This game was no exception.

The reason? Defensive tenacity, and that absolutely must be a product of good, hard practicing. It's why even as Royster had gotten to the corner on a stretch play for a first down, the Iowa defenders didn't panic, instead poking the ball away and fielding it cleanly (not to put too fine a point on it, but the distance between Klug's spot at the snap and where he recovered the ball is about a 40-yard run away; that he was right there to be the first man to make the play is no accident). Yes, they gave up a 20-play drive in the first quarter, but look at it another way; PSU had to run 20 plays just to get 68 yards, and they only got three points for that effort. It was their last drive of over 40 yards for the game. In fact, one would think this Iowa team is unstoppable, except...

Good grief, the offense: Look, Ricky Stanzi did go 11-26 with two picks, but that included only about 1 1/5 Stanziballs and about 8 instances of receivers going Full Herb Grigsby. You never go Full Herb Grigsby. We can bitch about Paul Chaney Jr. dropping a 3rd down slant route or balls sailing off other receivers' hands, but what good does it do? Hell, Colin Sandeman literally kicked a dropped pass over to a Penn State player. How does that even happen?! In fact, you'd rarely think this when looking at a 11-26, 2 INT stat line in a crucial road game, but Ricky Stanzi actually took a big step forward in maintaining his discipline and composure. We wouldn't believe it if we didn't see it, either.

No offense, Mr. Robinson, but you're only in these pictures by accident.

That said, though, it's really obvious this offense hasn't had much cohesion thus far. If we were to ask you at the beginning of June what Iowa's record would be coming out of Happy Valley if the rocks of consistency thus far on the offensive line were Dace Richardson and Rafael Eubanks, you'd probably say 2-2, 3-1 with some luck. Then you'd shoot us in the face for the crimes of witchcraft and aggravated pessimism. Then let's toss in injuries to DJK, Jewel Hampton, Jeff Brinson, and Tony Moeaki. Y'know, just for good measure. It's downright miraculous that Stanzi hasn't bought a sword for decorative purposes; at that point, you may as well have written James Vandenberg in with a ballpoint pen.

Our point is this: the offense was pretty bad against Penn State. The problem wasn't three-and-outs, mind you; there was only one of those, and it came on that dropped slant route we mentioned earlier. In fact, a full five drives ended in Penn State territory in the first half alone; Iowa had three offensive points to show for them. That is wasted opportunity, and a situation that an average defense usually cannot rectify.

The solution, then, is health and/or consistency. Either Iowa gets back the guys it expected to start during summer practice, or the second-stringers become part of the first unit just so the same 11 guys can start practicing together. Give credit to Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher for combining for over 200 yards from scrimmage, but without a more productive offense as a whole, Iowa could in major trouble against tough defenses.

That all said, this is one of the great post-Evashevski Iowa wins. While you only need to look back to that fateful night in Kinnick last season for the last time Iowa knocked off a top 5 team, you'll have to go back to 1990 to find a similar performance on the road; that was at #5 Illinois. There, Nick Bell demolished an entire team en route to a decidedly non-fluky victory. Here, it was the Iowa defense's front seven doing the trick. There, Iowa parlayed it into the team's last trip to Pasadena, touching off a nearly 20-year drought (yes, 2002 should have broken that, but... y'know). Here, can Iowa similarly parlay a big-time road win to big-time bowl glory? No pressure or anything.

The "I" stands for "Fuck You."

(All images credited to Matthew Holst of the Press-Citizen)

The Takeaway: Arizona

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:01:34 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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Spinning side kick!

Sure, Iowa just beat up on Arizona, 27-17. But how much do we really know? What was really important about beating Arizona? What does it all mean, Basil? The Takeaway has the answer.

Okay, time for the real Iowa to face a real quarterback: As we mentioned Saturday, Iowa's defense has absolutely obliterated the last two starting quarterbacks it faced; Austen Arnaud and Matt Scott, in their two appearances against Iowa, combined for 14-36, 129 yards, 0 TDs, 5 INT, and 2 benchings. That's goddamn brutal. Scott, especially, suffered Iowa's wrath; he was 4-8 for 50 yards. Then the second half started, and he completed precisely 1 pass: a perfectly thrown can of corn to Tyler Sash, who announcers said "almost called for a fair catch" on the play. Lucky for Iowa, he didn't; Sash ended up returning the pass 43 yards, and Iowa would soon thereafter kick a field goal that put the game out of reach for Arizona.

But the one nagging issue is that Matt Scott sucks, and Arnaud's credentials are little better. Pat Grace--the one good QB Iowa has faced--antagonized Greg Castillo for a whole game, but Castillo was never supposed to be starting; that's basically Shaun Prater's job, and Prater looked pretty damned good in his first game back. Darryl Clark, meanwhile, is generally accepted as one of the two best QBs in the conference, depending on your opinion of Terrelle Pryor and--if you're clinically insane--Juice Williams.

No holding was called on this play. Not that Karl Klug cares, of course; not here, not ever.

It'll be good. No, really, it will be. Nobody thinks Iowa's going to hold Clark to the median of the last two starters' performances (7-18, 64 yards, and a statistically curious 2.5 INT), but what he can accomplish with a meh receiving corps against a legitimate pass defense does remain to be seen. We're still looking quizzically at the linebackers and their pass coverage, but does anybody really think Clark's going to victimize anybody in the Iowa secondary? Prater, maybe. Greenwood, maybe (By the way, CLICK HERE for awesome footage of the Iowa secondary in action). The real hay's going to be made over the middle for PSU, though, not over the top or outside the hashes, and it's going to be interesting to see if the Nits have the patience to stick with that. Arnaud didn't, and hell followed.

Speaking of which, holy crap Tyler Sash: Obviously, this trend of Tyler Sash and his separations of offense and possession cannot keep its pace. Sash, who we might remind you is just a sophomore, picked off his fourth pass on Saturday, and it might have been his easiest takeaway of his Iowa career. That makes 7 interceptions in his last 5 games, and it says nothing of Sash's missile-like pursuit to the sidelines.

This dominance has its costs, though, and the primary unbeneficiary of them is David Cato. Cato made his presence known by knocking Grigsby for a big loss after the Cats got to Iowa's 1. Ah, but the third down that failed on that play? Effected by Sash pressuring Scott into an impossible pass after Scott rolled out. So you see the problem here.

Making things tougher is the fact that both players are sophomores; Cato burned his redshirt out of necessity last season. But Cato is necessarily a strong safety. It seems like Ferentz is trying to get him on the field more often, usually on special teams, but someone's going to have to switch positions to get both guys playing. That someone isn't going to be Sash, who's probably the best strong safety Iowa's had since Bob Sanders (yeah, I said it). Fortunately, Cato's frame looks like it might be big enough for a move to LB; we'll see what the team decides after the season. It's a shame, because Cato looks legit in his own right; that legitimacy may necessitate a transfer for his own sake, though, and that would suck.

But we digress. If Sash keeps up this kind of production, he's going to go down as one of the best safeties in Iowa history. We're three games into his sophomore season, so it's obviously not quite the time to start deciding his place in the list of the greats; that pace has to actually, y'know, keep up first. But man, he's good.

The Paul Chaney Jr. end around: We think the novelty's worn off, guys. Yes, the defenses need to respect Chaney or he'll bust one, but... they've tried it, what, four times now? Five? And he hasn't come close to taking one to the house. Unless this is some first step in a grand scheme to pull off an epic quadruple reverse, Iowa has probably shot its "end around" load.

Two tailbacks? And neither of them are Jeff Brinson or Jewel Hampton? Um, we did not expect this: First of all, everybody who thought three months ago that Adam Robinson would rush for a C-note on Arizona, please raise your hand. Okay, thank you, Robinson family and Lincoln alumni; the rest of you are fucking liars.

On one hand, Robinson registered 101 yards on the ground and you cannot take that away from him. That said... 43 of those yards came on a busted draw on 3rd and 23, a play where the Arizona DBs would have faced sodomy from a Mag-Lite if they'd bit on any sort of play fake. That's important because the prevailing narrative about Iowa's uncaring treatment of Nic Grigsby included a caveat about 58 of Grigsby's 75 yards coming on one carry, and we cannot have it both ways. Yes, A-Rob was better per carry even with the big run taken away, but if we say Arizona's run game was taken away, we have to admit Iowa's fared little better on median; excepting the big run, between A-Rob and Brandon Wegher, Iowa rushed 34 times for 104 yards. That's about 3.1 yards a pop, and if Arizona can do that to Iowa, Penn State should expect something similar. That does not bode well.

All of this is to be expected, though. After all, we're talking about a backfield tandem of a redshirt freshman who was generally thought of as the 4th best returning tailback six months ago, and a true freshman from Sioux City. Yes, they've outproduced those bona fides thus far, but not by that much, and here comes a real Big Ten defense just wishing a motherfucker would try to go between the tackles on them.

So what to take away from the rushing game? Well, Robinson ran hard, Wegher did things nobody else on the team can do (A cannonball from the 4 on a goal line dive that scores with ease? Come. on.), and together, they're in for the fight of their young lives against a PSU defense that's going to be amped as fuck when Iowa comes to town.

EPIC ANGERER.

And finally, this team is pretty close to legit. We're not about to say Iowa was underrated when they were at #21/22 coming into the season. Based on the way the AP votes, that designation is just about all a random Team X could ask for after these first three games.

At the same time, Iowa's missed 6 of its top 7 players on offense for at least a full game this season. Don't believe us? Bryan Bulaga, DJK, Tony Moeaki, Kyle Calloway, Jewel Hampton, Julian Vandervelde. Of those six, only two are healthy now, and we're not sure how many more will be ready to rock by the time the Happy Valley date rolls around. Every one of those players Iowa gets back is one step closer to a win at Penn State. We don't think Iowa's got the victory in hand by any stretch, especially in its current form.

But Bulaga's better than Riley Reiff. Moeaki's better--especially for the run game--than Allen Reisner. DJK's better than Colin Sandeman. Even if improvements are incremental, they're still improvements, and Iowa could use all the help it can get towards getting closer to full strength for the PSU game.

And yet, Iowa's still already 3-0, and the defense is rounding into mid-season form already. Granted, this could still all end in a 40-point victory for the Nittany Lions, but we'll see how much good news Iowa gets in the lead-up to the game. Plus, if there's anything Ferentz has proven himself to be up for, it's BEATING PENN SCHTAAAATE.

Arizona @ Iowa Preview

Smooty — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:41:39 -0000

More photos » by John Miller - AP

3 months ago: Arizona's head football coach Mike Stoops watches the game from the sidelines during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northern Arizona at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, Sept. 12, 2008. (AP Photo/John Miller)

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Saturday is the first big road-test of the season for Arizona. The Cats travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes at famed Kinnick Stadium. There are plenty of story-lines surrounding this game: Mike and Mark Stoops return to their alma mater (where they played and coached); Matt Scott's first road game; Super-Tight-End Rob Gronkowski is out; both teams first game against a quality opponent; and Pac-10 vs. Big Ten bragging rights.

Matt Scott and the Wildcats should expect a loud, rowdy house Saturday afternoon. Kinnick holds over 70,000 people, and will be filled to the gills. The crowd may be a factor for Scott, who has not started a road game before.

How they got here:

Arizona is 2-0 (0-0), with victories over Central MIchigan (19-6) and Northern Arizona (34-17). The victory opening night over CMU has proven to be bigger than previously thought. The Chippewas went on the road last weekend and upset Michigan State.

Iowa is 2-0 (0-0), with victories over Northern Iowa (17-16) and Iowa State (35-3). The Hawkeyes escaped with the victory week one over UNI by blocking field goals on two consecutive plays! If you are an Iowa fan, I am sure you look at that as clear evidence of superior skill. If you are everyone else, you probably see it as a lucky win. Then, the Hawkeyes went to Iowa State and mopped the floor with the Cyclones. Okay.

When Arizona has the ball:

Iowa's defense has given up 137 rushing yards per game this season, including 56 yards last week to Iowa State's quarterback Austen Aurnad. There is a reason you have not heard of Aurnad. That 137 yards per game is not lost in a flurry of carries either. The Hawkeyes defense gives up a hefty 4.2 yards per carry. Arizona's offense is averaging 305 yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry. Nic Grigsby and the offensive line will be a huge factor in Saturday's game. Grigsby has rushed for 329 yards and three TDs this season. Matt Scott has chipped in 137 yards, and Keola Antolin has added 98 yards and one score.

Cornerback Tyler Sash leads the Hawkeyes in both tackles (20) and interceptions (3). Brett Greenwood, also a cornerback, is second on the team in tackles with 18, and two interceptions. Iowa is not effectively pressuring the quarterback. The Hawkeyes have only registered two sacks on the season. Granted, the pass defense picked off Iowa State five times last week. Iowa's defense gives up only 191 passing yards per game.

Matt Scott and Nick Foles will lead the Wildcats passing offense this week without tight end Rob Gronkowski and a banged up Delashaun Dean. Dean has had hamstring problems, and a concussion this season. He came back to practice this week and should contribute this Saturday. The Cats are only averaging 198 yards per game through the air, but up to this point have maintained a pretty vanilla offensive scheme. Look for Arizona to open up the playbook Saturday. Terrell Turner leads the team in receptions with 11, for only 101 yards. Next is David Douglas with seven catches for 65 yards. Where is Bug? The super-soph has only two catches this season to-date.

Arizona has dominated time of possession thus far. The Cats have held the ball 60% of the time. The Hawkeyes have had a slight time of possession advantage, averaging 30:45 a game.

When Iowa has the ball:

Iowa is the very definition of balanced attack. The Hawkeyes have run the ball 66 times this season, versus 71 passing attempts. This is not the old three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Big Ten offense, but it is not exactly Run-n-Shoot either.

Arizona has given up a paltry 70.5 yards per game on the ground. Wildcat opponents average 3.6 yards per carry and have found the endzone on the ground only once so far this season. Middle linebacker Vuna Tuihalamaka leads the Cats with 12 total tackles, and also has added an interception. Cornerback Devin Ross is second on the team in tackles (11), and will look to shut down Hawkeye reciever Trey Stross. Iowa averages 139 yards per game rushing, with a respectable 4.2 yards per carry. The Hawkeye's leading rusher is Adam Robinson, who has 132 yards on 27 carries and one touchdown. Iowa is without injured starting running back Jewel Hampton.

Arizona's pass defense has held opponents to 133.5 yards per game. Impressive when you consider that includes holding star quarterback Dan LeFevour under 200 yards. Trevin Wade has picked up where he left off last year. Wade has picked off two passes this season. The Arizona pass defense has only sacked the quarterback three times this season. Iowa's quarterback Ricki Stanzi is averaging 219.5 yards per game passing, and has five touchdowns versus only two interceptions. The Hawkeyes passing attack has spread the ball around the field. 12 different players have caught a pass this season. That number is misleading however, as only three players have caught more than five balls, and tight end Tony Moeaki has caught 11 passes for 26% of all passes completed. Clearly Moeaki is Stanzi's favorite target and will need to be shadowed down the field.

Special Teams

Arizona's kicker Alex Zendejas has made 4-6 field goals this season. Zendejas' long is 37 yards. Punter Keenyn Crier has three punts that average 41 yards, and a long of 55 yards. On kickoffs, Zendejas has already recorded three touchbacks on the season.

Iowa kicker Daniel Murray is 1-2 this year on field goal attempts. His lone field goal was a 39 yarder. Punter Ryan Donahue has punted nine times, for a 41.1 average, and long punt of 57 yards.

Arizona has a decisive advantage in kick returns. As a team, the Wildcats average 29.6 yards per return. The Hawkeyes average a mere 18.2. Iowa's kick coverage has been excellent thus far, however, limiting opponents to 17.5 yards per return. Something has to give here.

Overall

The numbers indicate that neither team has excelled so far this season passing the ball, and Iowa has not exactly been a prolific rushing attack either. Neither team has faced an opponent this season that matches each others caliber. This game should be a turning point for both programs. Can Arizona stop a balanced attack? Can Iowa keep a legitimate rushing attack in check? The peripheral numbers seem to edge towards Arizona, but Iowa has one huge advantage. Kinnick. If Matt Scott, or Nick Foles, turn the ball over, Kinnick will be in a frenzy. Arizona's best (and only) shot at winning this game will be to control the clock, keep the crowd out of the game, and keep turnovers to a minimum. The first quarter will probably be an emotional, fast-paced 15 minutes. After that, the Cats should look to settle down, and keep that crowd off its feet.

The TDG Consensus on the 2009 Big Ten Final Standings

Buck Bravo — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:18 -0000

The team at The Daily Gopher has been having some friendly debates regarding the prospectus for the 2009 Big Ten season, and we've decided to take our differences public. We'll revisit this post at the end of the season in order to analyze how well our predictions held up. Following is each of our predictions for the 2009 final standings, followed by a consensus prediction that combines all three of our analyses into one group intelligence melting pot:

GN - Penn State gets the home game against Ohio State so I'm giving them the not for conference title. But they will drop one somewhere along way, could be one of their road games (NU, Mich St or Ill). I believe in Iowa, they are good but they are not great. They have to go on the road to OSU and PSU, they won't sneak up on anybody this time around. I see it hard for them to lose a third game in conference so 6-2 seems pretty accurate. After that it is a cluster and this was my best guess. Illinois is very talented but who knows if they can stay above .500 in conference, they rarely (Ohio St 2007) play up to their talent level so them being in that 4-4 group wouldn't be surprising. Minnesota beats the other 4-4 teams and loses to the teams above them.

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Penn State	7-1	11-1
2	Ohio State	7-1	10-2
3	Iowa	6-2	10-2
4	Illinois	5-3	9-3
5	Minnesota	4-4	7-5
6	Michigan State	4-4	7-5
7	Northwestern	4-4	8-5
8	Michigan	3-5	6-6
9	Wisconsin	2-6	6-6
10	Purdue	2-6	4-8
11	Indiana	0-8	2-10

BB - The competition for the Big Ten Championship should be a four horse race. As usual, Ohio State and Penn State are in the running. For 2009, expect Iowa and Michigan State to be added to the mix. Iowa has a talented crew of upperclassmen and a dominant offensive line. Michigan State had a surprisingly successful year in 2008, and with a favorable schedule should be in the running for the Big Ten Championship. The rest of the teams in the Big Ten, barring any unexpected strings of over-achievement, are destined to finish in the middle or bottom third of the conference. If Iowa can pull off an upset at Ohio State, they could very well win the conference. As I've said before, Iowa's performance in their last two games of the 2008 season was no fluke. I'll take the Hawkeyes to win the Big Ten, even without Shonn Greene or Jewel Hampton:

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Iowa	7-1	11-1
2	Ohio State	7-1	10-2
3	Michigan State	6-2	10-2
4	Penn State	6-2	10-2
5	Illinois	5-3	8-4
6	Northwestern	5-3	9-3
7	Michigan	3-5	6-6
8	Minnesota	2-6	5-7
9	Wisconsin	2-6	4-8
10	Purdue	1-7	3-9
11	Indiana	0-8	3-9

JG - The only way to fairly make these predictions, is to print out EVERY game, predict them, and then tabulate. Give me two hours and I'll be back here.....

And I'm back. A few principles and ideas permeate my predictions: (1) the loss of Jewel Hampton is devastating to Iowa's team; (2) Michigan had a significant infusion of talent and experience, and the team is having a "me against the world" moment - those cannot be understated for 18-22 year old men (of course, if they don't start fast this season will be a 3 win disaster again); (3) Central and Western Michigan are going to beat up on the Big Ten (Michigan State, in particular); (4) Northwestern's schedule is incredibly favorable this year; (5) Wisconsin's is not, plus, Bret Bielema is their coach; and (6) Illinois will be the best team in the conference, but they'll lose to Missouri and Cincinnati out of conference.

Upset of the year: Michigan over Ohio State (November 22nd).

Best game of the year: Illinois defeating Penn State (October 3rd).

RANK	TEAM	BIG 10 RECORD	OVERALL RECORD
1	Northwestern	6-2	10-2
2	Penn State	6-2	10-2
3	Michigan	6-2	10-2
4	Ohio State	6-2	9-3
5	Illinois	6-2	8-4
6	Michigan State	5-3	6-6
7	Minnesota	4-4	7-5
8	Iowa	3-5	7-5
9	Wisconsin	1-7	5-7
10	Purdue	1-7	3-9
11	Indiana	0-8	2-10

Based upon averaging out our respective predictions, the TDG consensus for the 2009 Big Ten standings is as follows:

RANK	TEAM
1	Penn State
2	Ohio State
3	Iowa
4	Illinois (tie)
5	Northwestern (tie)
6	Michigan State
7	Michigan
8	Minnesota
9	Wisconsin
10	Purdue
11	Indiana

The Rivalry, Esq.'s 2009 Closing Argument - Iowa Hawkeyes

Bama Hawkeye — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:15:10 -0000

But there is one way in this country in which all men are created equal – there is one human institution that makes a pauper the equal of a Rockefeller, the stupid man the equal of an Einstein, and the ignorant man the equal of any college president. That institution, gentlemen, is a court.

-Atticus Finch, To Kill A Mockingbird

We, The Rivalry, Esq. place before this college football court, the 2009 season of the Iowa Hawkeyes. The past 30 years of the program have seen three or four year crests followed by two or three year troughs. Some have been more pronounced than others. This summer we have debated if this is the start of another crest. I say to you, ladies and gentlemen of the college football jury, ENOUGH! Let this court give them the fair assessment that they deserve.

Make sure to go back and submit your picks for the Obligatory Predictions Contest. Every weekly winner gets the right to write 500 words on the site about college football. NEW this year is our season long competition - win the whole damn thing and we send you something amazing.

I. Case History

Sometimes commentators can make too much about a "season turning on one moment." Then the 2008 Hawkeyes go and give them every reason to use the phrase again. Iowa was 5-4, having lost their four games by a total of 12 points. Iowa was on the verge of having a fifth close loss pinned on them by Penn State. And then...and then...

The 24-23 victory over the Nittany Lions flipped the switch for the Hawkeyes. They held on and beat Purdue the following week, obliterated the Gophers to close down the Metrodome, and destroyed South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The 9-4 season was the best in four years and raised hopes for 2009.

II. Factual Summation

A. The Rivalry, Esq. Says

Here's some of what we've written about the Hawkeyes over the off-season

Spring Preview

About Bryan Bulaga

Evaluating Ricky Stanzi

Iowa...The Most Interesting Team in the World

Reliving the 2005 Capital One Bowl

No Beer in Heaven, Big Ass Legs, Mongo, Wrestling

B. Michael Jackson Says

Because all blogs are required to compare athletic teams to some random entertainment icon, we're equating Big Ten Teams and Michael Jackson songs. The quality of the reading improves if you listed to the barely justified song choice as you continue.

Who's Bad? Iowa. Sometimes it's the Bad that gets half of the team thrown in jail. Sometimes it's the bad like their 2006 and 2007 seasons. Sometimes it's the Bad like upsetting Penn State and being the only Big Ten team to win a bowl game. But, make no mistake, Iowa is always Bad.

III. Emotional Plea

A. I Hate Iowa

Maybe its because he's lived too long in the South, where hatred is a tangible commodity, but Bama Hawkeye has felt his hatred for Big Ten rivals boiling. Here's why he hates...wait a minute...

I don't hate the Hawkeyes. Sure, there have been games that caused me to verbally explode at players, plays, and coaches...but never hate. More than that, there is no reason for me to hate the Hawkeyes. They are the embodiment of every principle upon which college athletics have been founded. I dare say it would be wrong, nay, anti-American for you to hate them.

Unless you care about little things like not breaking the law. Or unless you're Minnesota. We haven't always been the best of house guests when we visited them. And I guess that Penn State may have reasons to hate Iowa too. The Hawks did spoil their national championship and NCAA tournament hopes in the course of six months. And I suppose that Iowa fans do belittle treat the Wildcats with the appropriate amount of respect. That may cause hatred in the JustNorthwestern fan(s?) out there. But outside of them, let's be clear: hating the Hawkeyes is like hating all that is right with America. You got that, Benn? Good.

B. Why You Should Love Iowa

Because Hayden Fry ended the tyranny of the Big 2 when he led the Hawkeyes to the Rose Bowl in 1981...Because every year they find some otherwise un-recruited farm boy and turn him into an All-Big Ten lineman...Because not only do they dress like the Steelers, they run their organization like them too. Two coaches in 31 seasons. Only JoePa can scoff at that...Because they've won three of their last four against the SEC...Because their D-Coordinator has 8 toes...Because Nile Kinnick gave the best Heisman speech ever...Because they're in the Big Ten.

IV. Verdict

A.The Rivalry, Esq. Calls the Games

[ed. note: These picks were made before Jewel Hampton was declared out for the season with a knee injury.]

Opponent	Graham Filler Picks	Law Buckeye Picks	Bama Hawkeye Picks

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FINAL RECORD	9-3 (5-3)	11-1 (7-1)	10-2 (6-2)

B. Bama Hawkeye Calls the Bowl Game

10-2 could well get the Hawkeyes to a BCS Game. I think that they get passed over for second teams from the SEC and Big 12 as wells as Notre Dame and the Mountain West champion. If this bowl game comes to fruition, my life could get a bit uncomfortable...

vs.

V. On Appeal

Words from an SBNation blogger on their team. Oops Pow Surprise of Black Heart Gold Pants made one of my days happier this summer by comparing every Big Ten team to a professional wrestler. About Iowa, he said this:

Iowa – Chris Benoit

Widely praised for their technique and tenacity, which is enough to go far but not enough to completely overcome their athletic shortcomings. But if things go wrong? These guys tend to, um, "snap." And if they snap, things go horribly wrong. Some family troubles.