SB Nation - Tony Carter

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Special Teams

FrankDNole — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 16:32:52 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

I would like to thank those of you who have been playing along. After finishing this part, only the Offensive Line remains. Then I will recap what the TN members have projected on how each of these units will perform, for prosperity's sake. After the season, we will all be amazed at what a brilliant group of prognosticators the TN members are, and many of you will have none other than Phil Steele banging on your door with employment offers.

So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, the Secondary, the Offensive Backfield, and the Linebackers, will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Special Teams, to determine if this unit has progressed, expected to continue at the same level, or regressed, in comparison to last years "SPECIAL" special teams unit.

Gano's gone. 'Nuff said. Please vote now. (OK wait a minute).

As I prepared for this Special Teams part of the series, I felt this was really all I needed to say. However,

I feel that if you are going to do something, do it as best you can. So on with my drivel.

SPECIAL TEAMS

No group suffered a bigger loss than the special teams when Lou Groza Award winner Graham Gano graduated. Gano not only won the top award for a kicker but he also is believed to be the first punter ever to be named the MVP of a bowl game when he took home those honors in the Champs Sports Bowl.

For more on what the loss of Gano might mean, I suggest you read this nice piece by fsu44, 2009 Florida State Place Kicking Preview: How Much Will FSU Miss Graham Gano?, which includes some good information on the success of freshman kickers, as well as some good statistics and analysis.

The Seminoles will return their deep snapper Zack Aronson, and holder Shawn Powell this season.

James Esco and Nathan O’Jibway handled all kicking duties this spring. Neither has ever attempted a field goal in a game during their careers. Esco and O’Jibbway were looking to get a leg up on the nation’s No. 1 kicking prospect Dustin Hopkins before he enrolled this summer, but Hopkins is the projected place kicker at this point.

Powell, who started the first seven games of the season as the team’s punter, will take over full-time duties for Gano. The sophomore had almost identical numbers to Gano through the regular season, however Gano's ability to pin opponents inside the 20 yard line is surely something that will not be forgotten very easily by Nole fans.

2008 PLACE KICKER=Zack Hobby started the first 2 games while Gano recovered from his injuries, then Gano started the next 11 games. Both are now gone.

2009 PROJECTED PLACE KICKER=Dustin Hopkins is expected to start, followed by James Esco and Nathan O'Jibway.

2008 PUNTER=Shawn Powell started the first 7 games and Gano finished the last 6.


PUNTING             No  Yds  Avg Long  TB  FC I20 Blkd
-------------------------------------------------------
Graham Gano        22  939  42.7  58    0   7   8   0
Shawn Powell       18  739  41.1  56    1   2   4   0

2009 PROJECTED PUNTER=Shawn Powell followed by Kevin Campbell

2008 PUNT RETURNER=Tony Carter and Bert Reed. Carter is gone.

 PUNT RETURNS         No  Yds   Avg TD Long
------------------------------------------
Tony Carter           8  113  14.1  1  68t
Bert Reed             8   63   7.9  0  18 
A.J. Alexander        1   12  12.0  0  12 
Preston Parker        3    7   2.3  0   4 
Ochuko Jenije         2    6   3.0  0   7 
Roosevelt Lawson      1    5   5.0  0   5 
Dekoda Watson         1    3   3.0  0   3 

Total.........       24  209   8.7  1  68t
Opponent......       16  138   8.6  0  18

2009 PROJECTED PUNT RETURNER=Bert Reed and Greg Reid

2008 KICK OFF RETURNERS=Michael Ray Garvin and Preston Parker are both gone.

KICK RETURNS         No  Yds   Avg TD Long
------------------------------------------
Michael Ray Garvin   22   662 30.1  1  94t
Preston Parker        8   162 20.3  0  35 
Taiwan Easterling     7   141 20.1  0  29 
Bert Reed             6   132 22.0  0  41 
Patrick Robinson      4   112 28.0  0  39 
Nigel Bradham         2    36 18.0  0  19 
Seddrick Holloway     2    28 14.0  0  22 
Joe Surratt           1     7  7.0  0   7 
Nigel Carr            1     0  0.0  0   0 
Total.........       53  1280 24.2  1  94t
Opponent......       71  1431 20.2  0  57

2009 PROJECTED KICK OFF RETURNERS=A.J. Alexander and Louis Givens

So there you have it. Graham Gano, last seasons MVP IMO, and Garvin left some pretty big shoes to fill.

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE SPECIAL TEAMS=REGRESSION

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Poll

2009 FSU SPECIAL TEAMS-PROGRESSION, CONTINUATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Tuesday August 11, at 11:55 PM.

PROGRESSION

38 votes

CONTINUATION

65 votes

REGRESSION

220 votes

323 votes | Poll has closed

Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Defensive Secondary

FrankDNole — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 03:06:46 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, and the Receivers and Tight End will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Defensive Secondary to determine if this unit has progressed, remains stagnant, or has regressed, in comparison to last years secondary unit.

Mickey Andrews’ secondary lost two solid players with the departures of cornerback Tony Carter and rover Myron Rolle who combined to start 85 games during their careers at FSU. In 2008, this secondary was the 6th best passing defense in the nation.

The two senior starters that return in this position group are cornerback Patrick Robinson and safety Jamie Robinson, who are expected to be the veteran leaders in the secondary.

Patrick Robinson will be looking to add to his seven career interceptions, six of which came in 2007. Outside of Patrick Robinson, the current Seminole secondary has combined for ONLY one career interception, that coming from Jamie Robinson. All last year the entire FSU defense combined for only 9 interceptions, and only one was returned for a touchdown which was Neefy Moffett’s exhausting rumble and tumble of 18 yards. Of those 9 interceptions, only 6 picks were made by secondary players.

Tony Carter-2

Kenny Ingram-1

Darius McClure-1

Jaime Robinson-1

Patrick Robinson-1

This season, there will be some familiar faces, but in different places, as former cornerback Korey Mangum will move to rover to get the first crack at replacing Myron Rolle, and former cornerback Terrance Parks has been working at both rover and safety.

To his credit, Mickey Andrews realized that we had a problem in the secondary, and that problem would have continued to exist with the players remaining on the roster. The coaching staff did some very good recruiting and brought in some talented youngsters to beef up the secondary. The new players expected to compete, or at least push the veterans on the practice field, include Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes at corners, and Gerald Demps, Jajuan Harley, and Justin Bright at safeties. However, do not be too surprised if there are some changes made as to what position these players actually line up at.

The two cornerback positions are known as the FCB and BCB. For those who may not be familiar with the difference between these two, here is a easy way to remember courtesy of FSUn. The BCB is boundary corner, who typically plays the short side of the field all alone, while the FCB is the field side (wide side), and who typically gets help from the safety.

The competition at the field corner position between Ochuko Jenije and Dionte Allen should intensify with the arrival of Greg Reid. FSUncensored projects Reid surpassing Allen as Jenije’s backup almost immediately, and many feel he could possibly be in the starting lineup very quickly.

Now let’s take a look last years starters and this years projected secondary.

2008 FCB=Tony Carter started all 13 games and he is gone. Carter=25 Tot Tck, 2 Tck for loss, 2 int, 4 passes broken up, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED FCB=Ochuko Jenije, Greg Reid, and Dionte Allen

2008 BCB=Korey Mangum started 5 of the first 6 games, then Patrick Robinson started the last 7 games for 8 total starts.

2009 PROJECTED BCB=Patrick Robinson and A J Alexander

2008 ROVER=Myron Rolle started 12 games and Kenny Ingram started the one against MD when Rolle was interviewing for the Rhodes. As previously stated, Rolleis gone and so is Ingram (Tot Tck=22, 3.5 Tck for loss, Sck=1, Int=1, PBU=5)

2009 PROJECTED ROVER=Korey Mangum, Nick Moody, and Terrance Parks

2008 SAFETY=Darius McClure started 7 and Jamie Robinson started 6. McClure (Tot tck=25, 1.5 Tck for loss, 1 Int, and 1 PBU) is gone.

2009 PROJECTED SAFETY=Jamie Robinson and Terrance Park

OTHERS WHO CONTRIBUTED IN 2008 AND ARE NOW GONE=Michael Ray Garvin, Rod Roberts, Roosevelt Lawson.

OTHERS WHO MAY CONTRIBUTE IN 2009=Many expect Greg Reid to make a immediated impact. Also, Xavier Rhodes, Gerald Demps, Jajuan Harley, and Justin Bright. These players have all been discussed in depth here at TN, so I will not discuss their upsides or weaknesses in this story.

So there you have it. The biggest question I have is not if Carter and Rolle can be replaced as defensive backs, but rather who will fill Rolle's shoes in run support. Rolle, while in my opinion was just average in his pass coverage ability, he was very good in run support and a tackling machine. Rolle was second on the team in unassisted tackles with 40, and only Derek Nicholson's 44 solo's were better, and Rolle was third on the team in total tackles with 62. Even though I said I considered him just average in his ability to cover, he was second on the team with 5 passes broken up behind Korey Mangum's 7.

If I were to compare and rate each of the positions individually, I would rate them something like this.

FCB=STAGNATION only because Reid is expected to be taking over soon. Otherwise, I would have said REGRESSION because the experience and leadership Carter provided will be missed, and while he was not Mr. Interception, he was a dependable and a very serviceable corner.

BCB=PROGRESSION. I expect Patrick Robinson to be avoided by the opposing teams QB and I believe he will regain his 2007 form and numbers.

ROVER=REGRESSION. Even though I should rate this position on coverage ability only, I can not help but feel that Rolle's run support will be missed terribly. Our rover has traditionally been our last line of defense on break away runs. Hopefully the LB corp be better equipped to stop the run, and that will depend on if the defensive line does a better job of freeing them up. However the LB play will be discussed in the near future and the D-Line has already been covered. This is the secondary position that concerns me the most, especially when you factor in the loss of Ingram.

SAFETY=STAGNANT.

Therefore as of today, based on my averages of the 4 positions for this unit,

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE SECONDARY=STAGNATION.

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Poll

2009 FSU DEFENSIVE SECONDARY-PROGRESSION, CONTINUATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Wednesday August 5 at 2:53 AM

PROGRESSION

112 votes

CONTINUATION

98 votes

REGRESSION

55 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

Sunday Running PostGame Reactions and Observations: Clemson 27, FSU 41

FSUncensored — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 00:29:53 -0000

Post your thoughts here.

Here are your 5 Questions:

1. What was the most encouraging thing you saw tonight?

2. Who was the best player on the field?

3. What was the most discouraging aspect of this win?

4. What is your most lingering concern after this victory?

5. What player or aspect of this team do you most want to see re-emerge?

Bonus: what do you want me to look for in "Inside the Seminole Film Room"?

Quotes:

"It was exciting. We talked about it all week about how other teams weren’t able to run on them. We just stuck with our blocking schemes and we just felt like they hadn’t played a team like us."_ Jermaine Thomas

Early Observations:

Continued 3rd down dominance: Clemson ran 15 3rd down plays and converted only 2. It's safe to say that the Noles will continue to lead the nation in this category. Clemson ran 12 3rd down pass plays. The results? 3 Sacks, 1 Interception, 5 incompletions, 2 completions that were tackled 5 and 2 yards short of the first down, and only ONE conversion. 1-12 on 3rd downs passing. Think about that. That is sheer dominance.
Running for points; not maintenance. FSU had 10 runs of 10+ yards. 7 runs of 20+ yards. No player with over 100 yards. Few teams actually use the running game as a weapon instead of a "stay out of 3rd and long" method. This is good from an explosion standpoint, but I'll need to review some more stuff before I make up my mind RE: are we too boom or bust in the run game. Another positive of this is that teams must really respect the run on 2nd and 3rd Passing Downs

The importance of winning 1st down.

... it is not necessarily how many big defensive plays you make that determines how well you do; it is more about leveraging the offense into uncomfortable situations -- in other words, Passing Downs. The reverse is true for offensive success

I've preached this all year, but we are finally beginning to understand why. No matter how good you are throwing the ball, you won't have sustained success in 3rd and 5+. In fact, we discussed our propensity to convert 3rd and long last week. Several commentators (including myself) commented that we probably cannot keep that up. As you will see, it was finally time for the Noles to pay the proverbial piper, as they converted on only 2 of 7 3rd and 5+ situations. A detailed breakdown follows. See what you can do with this while I crunch other stuff.

Leverage: FSU faced 51% passing downs (16/31) Of those, 16 were passing downs (passing downs defined as 2-8+, or 3rd/4th- 5+). Some new school thinking indicates that staying out of passing downs is hugely correlated to winning.
Leverage: FSU forced Clemson into 75% passing downs (30/40)
Read the explanation of Success Rate. This is similar to the leverage idea, but instead of measuring the ability to stay out of / put your opponent in a bad position; Success Rate measures the chance of success. Let's go to the Chart!

Situation	Success Rate	Successes	Failures
Overall Offense	50%	31	31
Rushing Offense	58%	19	14
Passing Offense	41%	12	17
Non-Passing Downs	69%	11	5
Passing Downs	33%	5	10
Running in Non-Passing Downs	80%	8	2
Passing in Non-Passing Downs	60%	3	2
Running in Passing Downs	50%	3	3
Passing in Passing Downs	22%	2	7
1st Down Offense	48%	15	16
1st Down Rushing Offense	50%	8	8
1st Down Passing Offense	47%	7	8
2nd Down Offense	52%	11	10
2nd Down Offense in Non- Passing Downs	62%	8	5
2nd Down Offense in Passing Downs	38%	3	5
2nd Down Rushing Offense	67%	10	5
2nd Down Running in Non-Passing Downs	78%	7	2
2nd Down Running in Passing Downs	50%	3	3
2nd Down Passing Offense	20%	1	4
2nd Down Passing in Non-Passing Downs	33%	1	2
2nd Down Passing in Passing Downs	0%	0	2
3rd Down Offense	50%	5	5
3rd Down Offense in Non- Passing Downs	100%	3	0
3rd Down Offense in Passing Downs	29%	2	5
3rd Down Rushing Offense	100%	1	0
3rd Down Running in Non-Passing Downs	100%	1	0
3rd Down Running in Passing Downs	NO Draws?
3rd Down Passing Offense	44%	4	5
3rd Down Passing in Non-Passing Downs	100%	2	0
3rd Down Passing in Passing Downs	29%	2	5

As We've discussed at length, our offensive line is not good enough to execute a bunch of straight dropback pass plays. Our numbers reflect that. Also, because of the more hit or miss explosive nature of the passing game, Success rate will almost always be higher for rushing than passing. More explanations on this tomorrow.

We did an excellent job of staying committed to the run on 2nd and 8+, running 6 times and getting into 3rd and 4 or better 3 of the 6 times.

I'll enter the Defensive Data into Table form soon.

Defensive Success Rate: 63% (45/71). 50% on non-passing downs (5/10). 73% on passing downs (22/30).
1st Down Offensive Success Rate 64% (18/31).
2nd Down Defensive Success Rate 59% (13/22). 50% on non-passing downs (3/6). 63% on passing downs (10/16).
3rd Down Defensive Success Rate 87% (13/15). 50% on non-passing downs (2/4, including a turnover). ONE HUNDRED % on passing downs (11/11). That's incredible. Believe in the concept of leverage now?
4th Down Defensive Success Rate 33% (1/3, all passing downs)

What were certain non-scoring plays really worth?

How costly was roughing the passer?

How would we even go about figuring this out? Let's use a field position point expectancy chart.

via www.rockmnation.com

This chart shows how many points they can expect to score then they have the ball at a specific part of the field. The punt was fair caught at the FS 28 by Preston Parker. Having the ball at your own 28 on 1st down is worth exactly 2.00 points. The penalty not only wiped out our expectancy of 2.00 points, but it also gave Clemson a 1st down at their own 46. Having the ball at your own 46 is worth about 2.9 points.

So, 2.00 + 2.90= 4.90. The roughing the passer penalty cost the Noles 4.90 points. Intuitively, you know that penalty really hurt us. Now you know mathematically.

How costly was Tony Carter's muffed punt?

via www.rockmnation.com

The punt went from the Florida State 43 to the Florida State 11, where Tony Carter tried to fair catch it.

Having a 1st down at your own 11 is worth roughly 1.8 points. That's not all that special. The real killer in this play came from the turnaround. Clemson recovered the fumble at the Florida State 9. A first down at your opponent's 9 yard line is worth about 5.3 points. All in all, Carter's muffed punt was a 7.1 point swing. What a huge play. Again I ask: why is a starting cornerback returning punts? Let's hope this is the last we see of Tony Carter returning punts.

Other key non-scoring plays:

Harper's pass to Ford on 3rd down from the FSU 45 (1.5 expected pts) to the FSU 23 (4.25) was worth an expected 2.75 points. Credit the defense here for holding CU to a field goal.
Ponde'rs toss to Parker on 3-3 from the CU 44 to the CU 32 was deceptively important. It was worth 2.5 expectancy points (4.00-1.50).
Spiller's 8 yard rush on 4th-6 from the FSU 38 to the FSU 30 was worth 2.5 points (4.00-2.50)
Surrency's 38 yard grab on 2-7 from the 50 to the CU 12 was worth 2.50 expectancy points as well. (Jumping from 1.50 for the 2-7 @ the 50 (1.50 pts), to a first down @ the CU 12 (4.00pts) )

Truer Drive Charts

I don't think that Clemson should be credit for one drive because FSU roughed their punter. I also don't think that Neefy's interception or Tony's muff were offensive drives. It's a pet peeve, but I think this gives a better sense of how each offense (and defense) really played.

Clemson (split the roughing the punter drive in two)

	Drive Start				Drive End				Consumed
Team	Qtr	Spot	Time	Obtained	Spot	Time		How Lost	Pl-Yds	TOP	RZ
CU	1st	C20	15:00	Kickoff	F00	12:52	*	TOUCHDOWN	5-80	2:08
CU	1st	C25	11:19	Punt	F23	7:43	*	FIELD GOAL	9-52	3:36
CU	1st	C20	5:56	Kickoff	C26	4:16		Interception	3-6	1:40
CU	1st	C20	4:16	Kickoff	C22	2:28		Punt	3-2	1:48
CU	2nd	C19	12:58	Kickoff	F43	8:55		Punt	7-38	4:03
CU	2nd	F09	8:55	Fumble	F00	8:17	*	TOUCHDOWN	2-9	0:38	#
CU	2nd	C37	6:53	Punt	C42	5:15		Punt	3-5	1:38
CU	2nd	C22	1:19	Kickoff	C15	0:38		Punt	3--7	0:41
CU	3rd	C09	10:52	Kickoff	C31	7:15		Punt	5-22	3:37
CU	3rd	C46	7:15	Penalty	F02	3:43	*	FIELD GOAL	10-52	3:32	#
CU	3rd	C20	0:38	Interception	C11	13:44		Punt	3--9	1:54
CU	4th	C09	10:24	Kickoff	C14	8:30		Punt	3-5	1:54
CU	4th	C03	5:04	Punt	F00	2:00	*	TOUCHDOWN	11-97	3:04	#
CU	4th	C36	1:42	Kickoff	C41	0:44		Fumble	6-5	0:58

We really need to start better. Clemson's first 2 drives went 5-80 and 9-52. Mickey said that he didn't make a scheme adjustment, but rather, an attitude adjustment.

After Mickey laid into his crew, Clemson ran 42 plays for 141 yards (3.4 per play-- absurdly good defense). CU was completely shut down.

Then, we went into a prevent and allowed a 11 play, 97yd drive. However, that drive did last 3:04 and cost Clemson all of their timeouts.

Florida State (removed the Neefy Score and the Punt Muff)

	Drive Start				Drive End				Consumed
Team	Qtr	Spot	Time	Obtained	Spot	Time		How Lost	Pl-Yds	TOP	RZ
FS	1st	F34	12:52	Kickoff	F34	11:19		Punt	3-0	1:33
FS	1st	F28	7:38	Kickoff	C34	5:56	*	FIELD GOAL	5-38	1:42
FS	1st	F25	2:28	Punt	C19	13:03	*	FIELD GOAL	10-56	4:25	#
FS	2nd	F30	8:12	Kickoff	F30	6:53		Punt	3-0	1:19
FS	2nd	F30	5:15	Punt	C00	1:25	*	TOUCHDOWN	10-70	3:50	#
FS	2nd	F33	0:38	Punt	C41	0:00		End of half	4-26	0:38
FS	3rd	F37	14:52	Kickoff	C00	11:01	*	TOUCHDOWN	9-63	3:51	#
FS	3rd	F38	3:35	Kickoff	C11	0:38		Interception	7-51	2:57	#
FS	4th	F32	13:44	Punt	C00	10:31	*	TOUCHDOWN	7-68	3:13	#
FS	4th	F49	8:30	Punt	C43	5:04		Punt	5-8	3:26
FS	4th	C41	1:58	Kickoff	C00	1:49	*	TOUCHDOWN	1-41	0:09
FS	4th	C41	0:44	Fumble	C43	0:00		End of half	1--2	0:44

I don't like how most of the sites are reporting Clemson's drives. To me, the drive when we roughed their punter was really 2 separate offensive drives.

I really like the 5 drives of 7+ plays and 50+ yards. That's very good.

Thanks to Seminoles.com and Woody Hayes, Tommy Sabourin, Pat Campbell, Andrew Brady, Steve Heil, and Brian Taylor for compiling this.

More to come...

Wow Notes

Wow!, on the 2nd drive, we faked bubble screen action and ran a middle screen off of it. Unfortunately, Clemson didn't respect givens on the bubble and batted the middle screen pass down. Still though... Wow! That's creative. I think we will see this again.
Wow! We were trying to go deep. 3 or more times we ran a design short pass fake to try to get deep, but alas, the pressure was too much. Maybe someday?
Wow! Moses McCray is an absolute beast! I wonder what the battles between him and Freshman Guard David Spurlock are like? Watch the 1st down run @ 2:28 of the first quarter. Moses drives Clemson's Senior Center 3 yards into the backfield, hits the CJ spiller with his arm, and slows him up enough to have our defender converge. Moses IS the next Brodrick Bunkley. Mark that down. He plays with such great leverage.
Wow! I forgot just how much faster a healthy Dekoda Watson makes out defense. His constant intensity level doesn't hurt either.

Have something that needs to be in the Wow! notes? Lemme know.

Photos (Courtesy of Tallahassee.com)

Last week, I told you that we played much worse than the score indicated.

This week, we played much better than the score indicated.

The Media's Take

Chantrant has their 'Nole Nuggets
Scalpem has a great photo gallery and a recap.
Andrew Carter has a really good grading piece. We agree on pretty much everything. I also posted twice over there.
Dinnich gives the 'Noles Defensive Ends a Helmet Sticker.
Doc Saturday takes Notice of our run game!
Nolesports.com has a bunch of articles.
Lemme know if I missed any.
ESPN has highlights

Check back throughout the day as I add more thoughts. I'd really like to hear yours, however, so don't be shy!

Poll

Who was the MVP of the Clemson Beatdown?

Louis Givens

31 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Previewing the Clemson Tigers @ The Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:33:52 -0000

Next Game

Clemson Tigers
@ Florida St. Seminoles

Saturday, Nov 8, 2008, 3:30 PM EST
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium

Shut Up Drew Weatherford

posted by FSUncensored about 9 hours ago

20 comments | 0 recs

The Conversation: Talking with Dr. B of Clempson Football

posted by FSUncensored 1 day ago

1 comment | 0 recs

Wednesday running update and open comment thread

posted by FSUncensored 1 day ago

8 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

Your announcers are a bunch of no-names. That's often better as they'll do their homework and come prepared.

Other Nole blogs chime in:

Chantrant: Why didn't Brad Scott become the OC, and answers from another Clemson beat writer. & Inside the mind of Dabo Swinney: an interview with the Anderson Independent.

Scalpem: Humorous and good as usual with this "ridiculously quick preview."

The offense will be up later when I take a study break.This preview will be shorter until Saturday morning, at which point I will add more. I have a midnight deadline on a paper, and I have to devote most of my time to finishing. The preview will be incomplete until then.

I've seen Clemson play one game in person this year (Alabama), and 3 more games on TV (Losses to Wake, Maryland, and Georgia Tech). Even after seeing 4 games, however, this team is still hard to read.

Know who did have a great read on them? RockMNation (Missouri's blog)

Here's my biggest point of hesitation: Clemson has to replace FOUR starters on the offensive line, including both their all-conference LG and all-conference LT. It appears there's plenty of talent in this unit, but...holy smokes, is that a lot to lose. And no matter how great your RBs are, they're going to be limited if they're having to make their first move 3 yards in the backfield. This is still likely the best offense in the conference, but I'm thinking good defenses will still be able to slow them down quite a bit. This isn't a "they're getting their yards no matter the opponent" situation.

(One more point of hesitation: they were +13 in turnovers in '07. That's hard to duplicate in back-to-back years.)

Let's take a look at the Tiger's games against D1 competition.

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Alabama	419	180	239	25	64.7%	6/40	0	41:13
Clemson	188	188	0	11	11.1%	6/43	2	18:47

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
North Carolina State	288	152	136	20	41.2%	7/40	2	32:57
Clemson	428	262	166	22	44.4%	7/75	2	27:03

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Maryland	295	172	123	11	33.3%	9/70	0	27:24
Clemson	372	151	221	19	33.3%	6/50	3	32:36

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Clemson	198	177	21	10	14.3%	7/59	1	24:08
Wake Forest	342	186	156	21	47.6%	3/17	0	35:52

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Georgia Tech	298	91	207	12	37.5%	6/45	2	34:53
Clemson	249	198	51	12	25.0%	4/36	6	25:07

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Clemson	339	252	87	16	40.0%	5/35	4	29:01
Boston College	236	116	120	11	16.7%	3/30	2	30:59

18 Turnovers in 6 games is sloppiness and bad luck. We saw that turnovers are often a product of bad luck when we faced Georgia Tech, who has similarly been plagued by turnovers. We cannot rely on Clemson turning the ball over.

What we can do is play defense with controlled aggression. Excuse me if this is simplistic, but Clemson's offensive line sucks. The mainstream media fittingly glossed over this "minor" weakness of their football team. They are playing better now that they have a little bit more experience after suffering from some early season injuries and they're playing with more motivation under Dabo Swinney than they were under Tommy Bowden, but we still need to exploit this weakness.

I'm not going to talk about C.J. Spiller very much in this space. I know that we are scheming to stop him, and as you'll see, his line doesn't block for him. He is an NFL back, and we have to control him. We won't shut him down completely.

How should we exploit this weakness? BY NOT BLITZING CRAZILY. The offensive line doesn't move people off the ball at all. They have been handled by some good defensive lines; notably GTech, Alabama, and Wake Forest). Florida State's defensive line hasn't drawn much praise around here as of late, but they are still a good defensive line capable of winning this battle without help from the blitzers.

Why is not excessively blitzing so important? When an offensive line can't move people, they resort to other tactics; usually misdirection plays, screens, or zone blocking principles. Clemson doesn't zone block well like FSU does (it feels so good to say that). They are a good screen team, however, and also run a good bit of misdirection. If they can't take us out of the play, they must depend on us taking ourselves out of the play. We should let our DLine play fast and loose, and let our LB's take care of business by reacting quickly. If we blitz a lot here, I fear that we will be out of position and will be gashed for the big play. Besides the obvious negatives of the big play, we really need to avoid allowing it against Clemson because...

Clemson cannot sustain drives because they are sloppy, poorly coached, undisciplined, not in sync, and imprecise. Oh, they also don't run the ball and win the battle of first down:

Against Georgia Tech, they had two- 40+ Yard drives in the 3rd quarter and did not have any other drives over 25 yards in the entire game.
Outside of a 70 yard drive, Wake held Clemson under 40 yards on all other drives.
Boston College allowed drives of 70, 80, & 70 yards, but--- those drives contained plays of 56, 45, 26, 24, and 23 yards. Even when their drives were long, they gained: 174 of the 220 yards these drives encompassed were gained on plays of 20+ yards.

Sometimes there is a good reason to blitz. This is not one of those times. We cannot afford to let Clemson hit us for big plays. Playing base defense and using our athleticism to limit yards after the catch-- or even better to deny the catch, will be a much better game plan.

Do you remember what I said about the VT game? A refresher:

We can't consistently block their pass rush, and honestly, should invite them to blitz. If they can get pressure with 4, why not let them bring 6 and give us single coverage? We'll need to win this with big plays; probably deep balls to Surrency Carr, or a series of screens. We won't drive on these guys.

That is Clemson against us to a T.

It's an especially good game plan because Clemson's QB Cullen Harper has a million dollar arm (first round draft pick level), but a 2-cent head. He sucks at throwing the underneath stuff and is sometimes really inaccurate. Think Jeff George. Does letting this guy throw deep balls against single coverage sound like the right idea to you? I thought not. Let's keep at least one man in deep zone coverage at all times.

Clemson will line up primarily in 3WR sets. This is usually good for FSU as we have the speed at LB to stay in our 4-3 alignment. In this game, however, Clemson has an NCAA track guy lining up in the slot. I'm not sure if we plan to use man coverage on him with Myron Rolle but I will say a prayer tonight that we do not attempt this. In keeping with the idea of "make Clemson earn it", this would be almost the reverse of what we should do. We need to play more Nickel in this game. I am fine with letting Corey Mangum play Ford if we have a deep safety. Let's hope that Mickey doesn't dare Cullen to beat single coverage deep. That's a dare he will lose.

As for their other receivers...

Aaron Kelley is 6'5 and really good. That said, I'm okay with Patrick Robinson playing him man-up, as long as we occasionally flash deep help his way. Robinson is a very good cover corner, and Kelly is a lazy route runner with a lot of physical talent.

Tyler Gresham is 5'2 and white. Insert [good route runner] [understands the offense], etc. He doesn't have great hands though. Tony Carter should do just fine against him.

If I told you that our 2 corners should more than hold their own against an opposing team's best two receivers, that their offensive line sucked, and that their QB is wildly inconsistent but does have a big arm, how confident would you be?

Their TE is a complete non-factor (though against us, he is good for 11 catches and 140 yards).

If we allow big plays on screens to Spiller or big plays to Ford this Saturday, you should be angry.

You might be thinking

"FSUncensored, BC runs a soft cover-3 and Clemson gashed them. Didn't they try to limit big plays"?

Yes, and yes. BC has ZERO speed on defense, however, and they are incapable of generating pressure without a blitz, specifically off the edge. Florida State doesn't have this same problem, since we have that Everette Brown guy. There should be NO REASON TO BLITZ 6. IF YOU WANT TO SEND WATSON OFF THE EDGE AND HAVE THE FS IN DEEP MIDDLE THAT IS FINE. Please though, none of the crazy stuff. Everette Brown already produces this reaction:

I figured I'd break out "Do Not Want Dog", since EB has another bad offensive tackle to feast on! DNWD is the official mascot of offensive tackle fear. It worked against Colorado and Va Tech.

I'm not sure if Clemson will help on EB, but considering their TE sucks, they probably should.

My hopes are that we see a lot of Watson and Verdell in this game. I love Nicholson, but I'm not sure his skillset works here. Watson and Verdell's speed should be a huge benefit. We need to make Harper throw accurately in the short and intermediate levels.

Clemson's offense is poorly coordinated and not precise in any way. This shows up in their over-reliance on the big play. They don't play as a unit and I think you'll see this on Saturday.

Our prime defensive play this Saturday should be: Cover-1 Blitzes. One blitzer off the outside (preferrably allowing Moffett to come inside, opposite of brown), and a deep safety in coverage to take away the deep ball. 6 man blitzes against this team, however, are foolish and unnecessary.

Let's do the goals:

The Goals for the Seminole Rushing Defense:

Keep Clempzun in 2nd and long: 33% of First Down Rushes for 2 or fewer yards. (The STUFFED %)
Use penetration to get stops: 40% Win Rate on 3rd+ 4th n short rushing
Tackle Well: Less than 10 missed tackles (A Mickey Andrews Goal)
Don't have your good work go for naught: 1 or fewer draws of 3rd and 8 or Longer for first downs. This is big!
No rushing TD's in the red zone. Make Harper throw the ball accurately in tight spaces.
Take good angles to the football: No more than 4 runs over 15 yards and less than 2 runs over 35 yards.

The benchmarks for the FSU Pass Defense

Harper under a QB Rating of 115 overall. (120 is about 18 completions in 30 attempts for 200 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.)
Limit Big Plays: no more than 5 passes of 15+ yards, and nothing over 40. See next goal.
Selective Pass Interference: do not give up the deep ball. If they do throw it, interfere like crazy.
Hit Harper: Play to the echo of the whistle. Have a sack rate (sacks / (pass plays + sacks)) of 10% or more. (27 pass attempts and 3 sacks, so 3/30). As Mickey said... "you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen...."
Be studs on 3rd and long: make the tackle when they throw underneath and don't allow them to get the 3rd down. Limit Harper to a double digit QB rating on 3rd down and 7+
Do not fall for play action on short yardage downs: DB's rarely make these plays but are usually the ones burned for trying to help out too much.
Confuse Harper Mix the coverages enough to confuse Harper. I'm annoyed that we give away our blitz too early. Let's wait to walk down, and at other times walk down and then back out.
Create 2 turnovers.

Final Goals For FSU's defense

LESS THAN 4.75 YPP
No Plays of 50+ Yards. I doubt CU can repeatedly drive on this team. Let's make them try.
10 "Stops" Mickey defines a stop as a turnover, punt, or a surrender on downs. That's fine by me.
Less than 50% Red Zone TD Scoring
No scores off sudden change (make CU get a first down off a turnover. Do not allow the home run immediately after a turnover)
Hold CU under 300 yards. Mickey's goal is 300, but CU is a bit better than their record.

CU's offense is ranked 90th by FEI for a reason. They aren't that good.

What will happen?

FSU will not get killed by big plays, but will give up some. Clemson will foolishly abandon the run as they've done all year. As you'll see when I write it later, Clemson won't have many plays to work with. CU will rush 27 times (including sacks) for 100 yards, and will throw 30 times for 200 yards. They'll hit one play of 45+ yards, and score at TD. They'll get a fg off of their lone decent DRIVE of the game. They snag a field goal on a short field, and somehow get two more as well, for a total of 19 points. Expect big days from Watson solid play from the corners.

Will that be enough? Check back later in the day to find out.

Some stuff on FSU great Warrick Dunn:

This comes from Brandan from Nike.

Hi TN –

As a voice on all things FSU, I thought you and your readers would be interested in a pep talk video Warrick Dunn recently gave to Lakeland High School as part of Nike’s 5 Days 2 Friday program. Nike played the video on the jumbotron right before the Dreadnaught’s game against Boyd Anderson (which the Dreadnaughts won 27-22). As part of the program, the company is traveling across the country and visiting various top-ranked high school football teams in the week leading up to a big game. Each week they make donations to local community organizations, host team dinners, station a NikeiD booth for students to design their own shoes, conduct SPARQ training sessions for local Pop Warner teams, etc.

The Story continues

Nike 5 Days to Friday - Warrick Dunn (via CWSports)

Warrick also discusses CONFRONTING HIS MOTHER'S KILLER.

Warrick Dunn isn't my favorite Nole Player ever, but he is my favorite person to ever put on the G&G.

Steele, Feldman, Accuscore, FEI, and almost everyone else picked FSU to win. Count me in as well.

On offense, look for FSU to go on LONG drives. I see a lot of really, really long drives, holding the ball, dominating the clock, and frustrating Clemson. Running short on time here. Not a ton of big plays.

The running game will be all about balance. Expect us to exploit Clemson's considerable speed by using a lot of the zone read, but more importantly, by having Jermaine and Antone gashing Clemson on cutbacks. I predict an awesome cutback run of 45+ yards by one of those guys. Clemson will overpursue, so end-arounds, reverses, and trick plays are all in play.

Clemson's pass defense is 75th in the nation in OPAED, which isn't great, but isn't as bad as some we've faced. They will take away the easy stuff, but I do think we can throw the screens (and we should even if they aren't effective-- to slow CU down.) Their corners are also short, so I expect to see us take some shots to Carr and Surrency. Parker seems to be coming into his own as well, and could have a decent day. He might be our best offensive player-- still. CU will struggle with the Carr quarmire-- whether to guard the jump ball or play aggressively against the bubble. I still expect them to give us the difficult throws if we can hit them (deep outs and in'sm skinny posts on a rope, etc)

So, your goals for Clemson? Track this stuff as you watch the game, it makes it more interesting:

So, the goals for the FSU running game?

45% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 3 or more yards (win first down). This seems like a strange goal, but it is all about staying out of 3rd and long. I know this number seems low, but I'm trying to set realistic goals here.
60% conversions running on 3rd/ 4th & 2 or less
1 or fewer fumbles (Not fumbles losT, but Fumbles)
40 yards rushing from Christian. This does not count sacks. I will parse our the sacks.

The goals for the Passing Game?

Less than .33 drops per 5 throws (works out to 2 or less per 35 throws)
QB Rating of 120+ Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that. Low completion % but big plays are fine by me. A rating of 125 is roughly 15 completions in 27 attempts for 205 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.
No careless throws into the flat. This is big, since these almost always go for a Pick-6.
Special Sack Rate (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 14%. Yes, 14%. That isn't a typo. If we have 30 pass plays, we must not allow more than 4 combined holding penalties and sacks. Obviously, I would prefer 4 holdings and zero sacks, as we don't risk injury or fumbles with the holding, and as we all know, the team that commits more penalties usually wins the game. it's true.
7 Yards per Attempt.
2 plays with 15+ YAC
No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 15 passes. This is very important if they play zone.
No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you). CU doesn't blitz much, and I doubt they bring 6+ guys more than once or twice.

General Offensive Goals

5.3 YPP(Yards Per Play). 66 Plays at 5.5 YPP = 365 yards.
No Personal Fouls (except clipping, I'm fine with that here). I know that the team committing more penalties usually wins the game, but these are non-aggression penalties.
Less than 2 turnovers
No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph)
60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing). We've done a decent job of this this year.

So, what will happen?

With CU putting up 19 points, FSU will need 20+, and they will get it. FSU runs 39 times (including sacks) for 160 yards (not a great average, but it includes sacks), and throws 27 times for 200 yards. We will probably commit 2 turnovers, but hopefully they are not costly. I think we hold the ball for mor ethan 33 Minutes, while getting 2 td's and 4 field goals, as CU gives up some yardage but not huge points. Despite the low sack totals, CU's DLine is very talented, as is their secondary. None of their LB's would make our ROSTER, however, and we will eventually exploit that advantage.

Gano will make us forget about the kick coverage woes.

FSU 26, CU 19

I'd love to hear your thoughts, and of course, there will be more to come later.