SB Nation - Drew Weatherford

The Official WWAHT Blogpoll ballot: Numbers 16-20

Sam @ WWAHT — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:00:19 -0000

It's frustrating when a whole team fails to show up in big games, but it's mindbogglin' when one guy routinely doesn't

I'm going to be honest in saying that from about #12 down on my ballot, you could throw all the team names into a hat, draw them at random and rank them along away, and no particular combination would make me bat an eye. It's not that I'm clueless about them (well, most of them), it's just that few of these teams have bona fide star power (looking at you, FSU), or they've got just one guy I'd die to have on my team (Cal, Oregon State). I'm not going to lie to you; I have no idea who Cal's starting quarterback is. But I know they have Jahvid Best, and damn it, Jahvid Best counts for a lot. That's the theme of numbers 16-20; teams whose hopes are all pinned on one or, if they're very lucky, two guys.

20. Oregon State

I saw that Oregon State returned Jacquizz Rodgers, his similarly scary brother James, and Lyle Moevao, and I gotta admit, I bought in. The defensive situation is worrisome: they lose all but one of their interceptions last year, and 24 of their 39 sacks to graduation and the draft. The only Pac-10 offenses that will make them pay for this, however, are USC and their main rival Oregon. Everyone else... probably going to have to outscore the Beavers in a shootout to beat them, but only if Rodgers stays healthy.

19. BYU

Again, I ranked this team mostly because Max Hall and Harvey Unga are back, but when I look at who else is returning - 7 of their top 10 2008 tacklers, 20 of their 22 sacks - I realize that the biggest obstacle they face is replacing early draft entrant Austin Collie. If they can do that, then it's time to get excited, because TCU, Utah, and Florida State all come to Provo. Winning two out of those three games may put them on the edges of the top ten, even, but obviously, I don't expect that to happen.

18. Florida State

This may seem like a pity placement, but really, I expect the Christian Ponder era to be a marked improvement over the Drew Weatherford "era" (if you can call it that), if only because Ponder has a reliable set of legs that can get him away from pressure, something he will probably experience quite a bit operating behind Florida State's porous offensive line. Running back Jermaine Thomas was very solid last year as a freshman at FSU, and while FSU won't be a powerful, between-the-tackles running attack soon, the future looks bright. Unfortunately, the schedule dims the outlook just a tad. The 'Noles play at Clemson, Boston College, and Wake Forest, to go with the season ending trip to take on the mighty Gators in the Swamp. Any more than one out of those four would probably take a miracle.

17. Georgia

I'm a little antsy placing Georgia this low, because I know their subpar performance in 2008 had a lot to do with injuries forcing young players into starting roles, moves which resulted in blowouts aganst Florida, Alabama and culminated in surrendering an unfathomable 409 yards on the ground to rival Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option attack. Dawg fans are hoping that getting those guys some experience - even bad experience, in many cases - should help their chances in '09. But I'm not sure that it will be enough to overcome a brand-spankin' new quarterback and running back.

For the record, this is probably one of the two or three teams I'm most unsure on. They genuinely seem like an outfit that can go either way in the polls; it all hinges on whether the defense approves from a disastrous, no-good 2008.

16. Cal

It's all about Jahvid Best. If he gets hurt, stick a fork in the Golden Bears. If he stays healthy, they're a top-20 outfit bound for the Holiday Bowl or better. Jahvid Best hasn't quite gotten the love he deserves, and it seems grossly unfair. He's playing in a league that went undefeated in bowl games last year, on a team that finished with a respectable nine wins, and he averaged 8.1 YPC in 2008. So why isn't he a bigger factor in the Heisman race? His most impressive outings of the year were against Miami, Washington (a game in which he averaged 16 YPC), Washington State and a tanking Stanford club. He's an exceptional athlete and all that, but he needs to start producing against the better teams if Cal wants to finish better than this at the end of the season.

Will the Florida State Offensive Line Pass Protect in 2009?

FSUncensored — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:57:35 -0000

There's a secret in coaching circles that most 'Nole fans don't know about and those who do know don't want the rest of the college football world to know: FSU's offensive line was very good last year- for being the youngest line in the nation. It's that qualifier that should dig at FSU's starting five. It's like saying "that's a nice jumpshot- for a girl." The truth of the matter is that without the qualifier, the statement that "Florida State's offensive line was very good in 2008" is false. All told, if you evaluated their performance without knowing how young they were, you'd be hard pressed to come up with anything more than average. There's a big difference between wildly exceeding expectations and being elite on a national or conference scale. When FSU needed their offensive line to dig in and provide protection in 2008, in passing situations like 2nd & 8+ or 3rd & 5+, the line failed miserably. They simply could not pass protect. Sure, they made big strides in other areas, and looked much better than some of the garbage produced by Jimmy Heggins and Mark McHale in the early and middle parts of this decade, but 'Nole fans eager to have a decent offensive line jumped all over the idea that their boys up front were now elite. They have not yet earned the pre-season accolades being strewn upon them by the media. Not with last year's performance. This year the challenge is to become elite- not just elite considering their youth.

This piece uses advanced measures. You may be familiar with how some of baseball's advanced and highly-specialized, opponent-normalized measures are taking over the way the sports world operates. Baseball is being dominated by all kinds of super metrics, and football is swiftly moving in that direction as progressive athletic departments and professional teams move to hire the advanced minds to give their team the edge in self-scouting and talent evaluation. They seek to improve their performance through a better understanding of the macro and micro elements of the their approach. Here's a look at FSU's 2007 and 2008 offense through the lense of the best available measures.

Measure	2007	2008
Fremeau Efficiency Index: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (Drive Based)	82nd	15th
Vartisy Numbers Offensive Rating (Play-By-Play Based)	71st	33rd
Varsity Numbers Rushing Rating	89th	15th
Varsity Numbers Passing Rating	47th	57th

Fremeau Link | Varsity Numbers Link A big thank you to Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly. Without their work, none of this would have been possible.

Everyone knows that Florida State made an improbable leap with their running attack last year, improving from the 89th rated rushing attack in 2007 to the 15th rated rushing attack in 2008. (Rating based off Varsity Numbers S&P close measure, which is adjusted for opponent and removes garbage time possessions). They did this despite having the youngest offensive line in the nation with three true freshmen and two sophomores. The end result was the top offense in the ACC, earning Jimbo Fisher the ACC Offensive Coordinator of the Year Award. All was not perfect, however, as the passing attack went from being rated 47th to 57th nationally (Rating based off Varsity Numbers S&P close measure, which is adjusted for opponent and removes garbage time possessions).

We've already spoken about the running game at length here, here, and here. Today we'll talk about the passing game, and specifically the much-heralded offensive line.

By almost any measure, be it the very basic total yards, or the hyper-advanced Varsity Numbers Close S&P+ measure, FSU's passing offense took a step back in 2008. But the step back was not nearly as large as some of the unrefined numbers indicate. In terms of yards per game, FSU fell from 47th in 2007 to 82nd in 2008. That's quite the drop, but the smarter measures suggest the drop was really only about ten spots, not 35, as the 'Noles saw their passing game fall from 47th to 57th nationally. Why is this so?

To better understand just how far the passing game fell (not as far as you might think), it is important to understand the components of the super advanced passing metric. Close S&P+ is comprised of Success Rate, and Points Per Play (a measure of explosiveness), in situations where the game is not wildly out of hand, and then normalized for opponent quality.

Measure	2007	2008
Passing S&P (combination of the two)	47th	57th
Success Rate +	62nd	28th
Points Per Play +	48th	73rd

To understand what this means please follow (and read) this link follow link. It's detailed but you will learn a lot. If you do not read it, this will not make much sense.

Success Rate

This one immediately jumps out at me. Back in early 2008, I argued against Drew Weatherford and stated that he was selfish for taking a 6 yard gain on 3rd and 11 in order to not throw an interception. It helped his numbers, but not the team, as the punt team was called upon a record number of times. In 2008, Christian Ponder was almost the exact opposite, as he tried to throw for the first down a bunch. Throwing for 7 yards on 3rd and 10 is a great example of how regular statistics can be misleading. Everything about that play looks good for the quarterback, but it doesn't help the team much. When FSU needed a conversion, they typically got it in 2008 where they did not in 2007. The jump from 62nd to 28th is excellent and FSU would do well to maintain that 28th Success Rate position in 2009.

Points Per Play (explosiveness)

While the Success Rate was better in 2008 than in 2007, the 'Noles Points Per Play was not. Think of Points Per Play as Slugging Percentage (and Success Rate as On-Base-Percentage). FSU's 2008 offense lacked the big plays of the 2007 year, and the difference was noticeable, as FSU fell from 48th to 73rd in PPP+ (explosiveness). Why was this? Did FSU simply trade big play potential for more consistency? Sort of. It's not that simple.

To understand the results we have to examine the process. Last summer FSU knew that it had a very difficult situation at offensive line, as they suffered transfers, injuries, and had their most promising offensive tackle flunk out of school. The offensive line was the youngest in the nation. FSU decided that their makeup could do well in most games as a quick, double-teaming run blocking unit and a passable quick game protection unit. They didn't come out and say so, but the makeup of the offensive line (very small and young) wasn't going to be conducive to pass protection. That runs counter-intuitive to what many often think of when they conjure up images of a young line- as young lines typically do okay in pass protection but lack the tenacity and push needed to dominate in the run game. Typically, young offensive linemen are soft, but they do have bulk and it is that bulk which is needed to sustain the initial jolt delivered by the pass rusher. If a pass rusher knows he will have success witl the bull rush (straight ahead), he will not attempt other moves. FSU's line was different because it had the quickness to attain angles to block for the run, but the young guys were simply too small to effectively pass protect. The Problem was physical maturity. Kid's seemed for the most part to be assignment smart but lacked the bulk and strength to compete play to play. They couldn't withstand a bull rush and as a result, had to keep tighter than ideal splits in an attempt to force the pass-rushers outside. Think of FSU's 2008 pass protection as a high school basketball pack-it-in defense. It worked sometimes, but ACC edge rushers (more 1st round draft picks on defense than any other conference over the last 5 years) could beat the freshmen tackles to the outside. Additionally, Ryan McMahon struggled with injury and the sophomore center was routinely driven back. The pocket rarely existed for Christian Ponder.

Here's an important quote about pass protection:

Pass protection usually begins with the understanding that if the defense rushes five or six guys, you can pick them up, but your blockers will have to be able to block at least one defender one-on-one. No pass protection scheme can count on double teaming all possible rushers. If you can't handle Lawrence Taylor man-for-man, then a five man rush becomes like a seven or eight man blitz, but also with sound coverage behind it.

And trusting your protection as a quarterback really begins with an expectation of protection. Quarterbacks are told not to pay attention to the rush. You have to feel the rush but not look at it. That whole concept is built upon the assumption that most plays will be blocked successfully and to adapt to protection breakdowns. With FSU in 2008, no QB could reasonably have an expectation of protection, because it was not there. The Offensive Line's pass protection was nonexistent in summer practice, Fall Camp, and by most defenses. Sure, they did okay on some of the shorter passes and the screens- plays that didn't require them to have the initial bulk to sustain a rusher's jolt, but the dropback pass protection was just not there.

Aside from the offensive line's makeup, there are yet other reasons for the contrast in the run and the pass game. For a long, long time, FSU was pass first, second, and last. Heck, Bobby Bowden even wrote essays by the name of "The Pass First Offense". Forever and ever, teams geared up to stop FSU by stopping the pass. And going into last year, teams did not fear FSU's run game, nor their quarterback. No, they were scared of FSU's wideouts, however, in a big way. Greg Carr and Preston Parker, along with newcomer Corey Surrency (who teams regarded as a Carr clone) scared opposing defenses. Teams absolutely played to stop the deep ball. They kept their safeties back. Wayyy back. They did not stack the box. Defenses allowed the 'Noles to throw short passes and run the ball but they declared, via their pre-snap alignment, time and again, that they would not allow the deep ball. While Surrency and Carr had disappointing years, the very threat of the deep ball to them made playing back an easy choice for defenses. No team really challenged FSU's wideouts with single coverage- except for Virginia Tech- against whom Carr caught two crucial bombs.

And even after FSU began to run the football really well (Colorado and Miami), teams did not respect FSU's run game. The 'Noles were putting up top 20 rushing performances, and yet their past reputation of rushing ineptitude still carried the day. Most of the time, Fisher did a good job of running the ball against these looks. Occasionally, he tried to force pass plays against teams when the defensive formation dictated that a run be called- most notably Clemson.

But teams did make some adjustments to what FSU was doing. Teams saw Wake Forest shut FSU down with their excellent front 7 and not involve their safeties. Opponents continued to try to emulate that game plan. It didn't work against the run for the most part, as FSU started to gash opponents, but it did work against the pass. NC State, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and UF all did a great job generating pressure without bringing any blitz. They kept everyone else back in coverage. Unfortunately for the 'Noles, the youngest offensive line in the country could not protect against a simple 4-man rush. Typically when a team faces pressure, there are easier throws available because the defense is sacrificing a coverage player and rushing him, but the 'Noles faced great coverage and enormous pressure because opposing defenses were able to generate that pressure without sacrificing that coverage player to the rush. The other part of this was the complete lack of respect for the FSU play-action game, which is of course based off the threat of the run.

Here's a more detailed look:

Performance- Varsity Numbers 2007/2008	'07 Rank	'08 Rank
Passing Close S&P + (combo if Success Rate and Points Per Play)	47th	57th
Success Rate +	62nd	28th
Points Per Play+ (PPP+)	48th	73rd
Non-Passing Downs (1-10, 2-7 or less, 3rd and 4 or less) S&P+	47th	53rd
Non-Passing Downs (1-10, 2-7 or less, 3rd and 4 or less) Success rate +	37th	56th
Non-Passing Downs (1-10, 2-7 or less, 3rd and 4 or less) Points Per Play +	86th	47th
Passing Downs (2nd & 8+, 3rd & 5+) S&P+	53rd	27th
Passing Downs (2nd & 8+, 3rd & 5+) Success Rate +	96th	69th
Passing Downs (2nd & 8+, 3rd & 5+) Points Per Play +	82nd	57th

Okay, so you're probably trying to make sense of this, as you should. How could FSU's passing attack be rated lower in 2008 than in 2007, yet be slightly better on passing downs? The key is in the measurement. The performance on Non-Passing and Passing downs measures all plays run on those downs- not just passes. And if there was one thing Florida State did very well in 2008 it was run in passing situations.

Here's a look at every successful play (see definition of success rate linked above) the 'Noles fan on passing downs during the 2008 season. See if you can sense a pattern.

Against Wake Forest, FSU succeeded on 8 of 32 plays on Passing Downs (2nd & 8+, 3rd & 5+). FSU ran the ball 11 times in those situations, and had success on 4 of them (36% success rate). FSU ran 21 pass plays in passing situations, and was successful on only 4 of them (19% success rate). While neither are good, the Wake game was a microcosm of the stark differences had on the ground and in the air. Here are the runs:
Wake Forest: 2-10, run for 8
Wake Forest: 2-10, run for 11
Wake Forest: 2-10, run for 9
Wake Forest: 3-8, run for 18
FSU ran 21 pass plays in passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd & 5+), and was successful on only 4 of them (19% success rate). This should be the worst passing game in Fisher's history. Here are the passes:
Wake Forest: 3-5, pass for 8
Wake Forest: 3-8, pass for 16
Wake Forest: 3-5, pass for 21
Wake Forest: 3-10, pass for 10
Against Colorado, the 'Noles had a success rate of 35% on passing downs (6-20)
The 'Noles were successul running the ball 3 of 8 times on passing downs. (38%)
Colorado: 2-15, run for 60
Colorado: 2-7, run for 12
Colorado: 2-10, run for 7
The 'Noles were successful throwing the ball on 4 of 12 passing downs (33%)
Colorado: 2-8, pass for 6
Colorado: 2-10, pass for 15
Colorado: 3-8, pass for 17
Colorado: 3-7, pass for 24
Against Miami, the 'Noles faced 28 Passing downs, and were successful on 14 of them, for a great 50% success rate.
The 'Noles ran 15 times on passing downs, and had success on 8 of them! That's 63% successful running in long situations.
Miami: 2-10, run for 30
Miami: 2-10, run for 7
Miami: 2-15, run for 11
Miami: 2-7, run for 6
Miami: 2-11, run for 9
Miami: 3-20, run for 20
Miami: 3-8, run for 12
Miami: 3-11, run for 13
That's pretty remarkable. One of the best performances running in long situations I have ever seen. They were 6/13 on passes in those situations (46%)
Miami: 2-12, pass for 11
Miami: 2-10, pass for 9
Miami: 2-10, pass for 19
Miami: 2-10, pass for 17
Miami: 3-7, pass for 13
Miami: 3-14, pass for 27
Against North Carolina State's porous defense, the 'Noles faced 29 Passing Downs, and had success on 41% of them (12/29).
The 'Noles ran 17 times on passing downs against the Pack, finding success an impressive 7 times (41%)
NCST: 2-8, run for 27
NCST: 2-7, run for 8
NCST: 2-10, run for 11
NCST: 2-7, run for 12
NCST: 2-8, run for 16
NCST: 3-14, run for 15
NCST: 3-8, run for 8
Of the 'Noles 7 successful passing down situation runs, 4 gained a first down by exactly 1 or 0 yards. Talk about knowing where the marker is!
The 'Noles threw 12 times on passing downs, and had success 5 times (42%). You may find it odd that the 'Noles ran a lot more than they threw on passing downs, but consider that NCST's defensive line was abusing FSU's offensive line early in the game to the tune of 5 holding penalties and three sacks.
NCST: 2-14, pass for 13
NCST: 2-16, pass for 17
NCST: 2-10, pass for 17
NCST: 3-21, pass for 30
NCST; 3-17, pass for 23
The Wolfpack really hates playing the run apparently, but they were damn good rushing the passer.
Against VTech the 'Nole offense struggled on most every down. They faced 25 passing downs and had success on only 5 of them, for a horrid success rate of 20%.
VTech was very draw-conscious. FSU ran 10 times in passing situations, finding success only 1 time.
VTECH: 2-10, run for 8.
Because VTech was more focused on the run, FSU's success rate in the passing game was higher (27% on 4 of 15, compared to the 10% above)
VTECH: 2-8, pass for 13
VTECH: 2-15, pass for 13
VTECH: 3-20, pass for 39
VTECH: 3-10, pass for 21
Obviously, VTech's defense was top 10 nationally and Miami's and NCST's weren't in the top half, but this game showed FSU making a good late adjustment (discussed below).
Against Georgia Tech, the 'Noles did an excellent job staying out of Passing Downs, because they did well on first downs. The 'Noles faced only 17 Passing downs, and found success on 10 of them, which is an excellent 59%
The 'Noles ran 4 times in passing situations and absolutely dominated tech doing so, finding success on 3 of the four:
GTECH: 2-15, rush for 39
GTECH: 2-12, rush for 11
GTECH: 2-10, rush for 10
In a departure from the previous games, FSU threw 3X more passes than runs on passing downs (13), successfully doing so on 7 of them (54%)
GTECH: 2-15, pass for 14
GTECH: 2-8, pass for 20
GTECH: 2-17, pass for 13
GTECH: 2-10, pass for 9
GTECH: 3-7, pass for 12
GTECH: 3-8, pass for 10
GTECH: 4-6, pass for 9
The Clemson game is where we really start to see Ponder's injury impact the playcalling. While FSU was a great run team on passing downs earlier in the year, they tailed off considerably at mid-season. That's probably because Fisher didn't want to further injure Ponder. The 'Noles were 6/18 on passing downs (33%). Let's see how that happened:
The 'Noles had 8 runs on passing downs, and were successful on 4 of them, an excellent 50% rate. Interestingly, only one of them was Ponder.
CU: 2-13, run for 21
CU: 2-10, run for 11
CU: 2-10, run for 8
CU: 2-7, run for 27
I was really quite irritated with Jimbo's playcalling in this game. He was trying to force the passing game despite the huge pass protection issues FSU had (linemen pulled in the first quarter for massive blown assignments and poor play). FSU passed 10 times on passing downs, and were only successful 2 times, for a pitiful 20% success rate. Clemson was an extremely good team against the pass and while I've often praised Fisher, he was way too stubborn in this game. If FSU stuck with the run game (and the Clemson's alignment and ability to generate pass pressure with minimal rushers dictates that they should have), the 'Noles could have scored 60. Here are the two successful passes in passing situations:
CU: 3-7, pass for 14
CU: 3-13, pass for 14
Clemson's defense is extremely good and should content for the top spot in the nation in 2009. FSU must be patient and willing to run the ball against Clemson until Clemson shows that they are concerned with FSU's run game.
The Boston College game really showed just how good the Eagles defense was (2nd nationally). While most teams paid dearly for ignoring FSU's run game, BC was able to stop it with minimal personnel and still devote full attention to the 'Noles run game. The results were disasterous, as they would be for any offense in that situation (and most were against BC, as only two teams had more yards per play against BC). Florida State was just 5/21 in passing situations, which probably says as much about Boston College's defense (stacked with NFL starters) as it does FSU'S offense. Still, 24% succcess in passing situations will not get the job done. Let's look at the breakdown:
FSU only ran 4 times in passing situations, but were successful twice (50%, duh).
BC: 2-10, rush for 11
BC: 2-8, rush for 7
This really begs the question, why not run more in these situations? Clearly the 'Noles were quite good at doing so. The answer was Ponder, of course, as he was injured and the backups were not a reasonable alternative for a variety of personal and football reasons. Where earlier in the year the 'Noles would mix their runs and passes in passing situations, they did not do so starting with the GTech game- probably because of the QB injury.
In the passing department, the 'Noles were terrible here, successfully throwing in passing situations only 3 of 17 times! That 's 18%! I am yelling! Let's take a look at the three successful throws:
BC: 2-9, pass for 30
BC: 2-10, pass for 14
BC: 3-5, pass for 14
Again, BC had three top 40 NFL draft pick types- including two top 10 types, and they absolutely manhandled the 'Noles offensive line- even making Rodney Hudson looking terrible. It didn't help that Andrew Datko and Ryan McMahon were injured. Simply put- BC, like Clemson (passing plays only) and Wake, and UF, had an all-decade quality front-7 and rushed few men yet generated a lot of pressure while playing 7 or 8 men in coverage. FSU simply could not block them.
Against Maryland, the 'Noles did a great job on first down and avoided having a lot of passing downs, facing only 16, and converting 5, for a 31% success rate. That's not good, but given the context of the overall game it wasn't a big deal because there just weren't many of the situations.
The 'Noles ran 6 times on passing downs and were successful three times, again posting a decent running success rate of 33%. Ponder took off only three times and had the two successful runs. Go figure.
MD: 2-10, run for 8
MD: 2-10, run for 12
In the passing department, FSU, threw the ball 10 times, and was successful three times.
MD: 2-10, pass for 7
MD: 3-7, pass for 7
Md: 3-11, pass for 18
Maryland's pass rush was not very impressive and it's worth noting that FSU completed a lot of short stuff that just missed counting as a "success."
And against UF, nothing went right. FSU faced 27 Passing Downs, and found success on only 5 (19%). UF had the best defense in the nation and they are in line to have the best defense of all time this season. They shut down everyone in scary fashion.
FSU ran 8 times on passing downs, doing to successfully only twice. That's 25%.
UF: 2-10, run for 8
UF 2-7, run for 9
In the passing game, our offensive line couldn't handle the Gator rush, and they were able to generate a lot of pressure with minimal rushers. I've said this a lot now throughout this piece, but FSU's run blocking was at a level many would call "good", but their pass blocking was in the bottom 30 of all teams Nationally. FSU threw 19 passes on Passing downs, and was successful on only 3. 3 of 19 is 16% and that is bad.
UF: 2-10, pass for 8
UF: 2-9, pass for 12
UF: 3-14, pass for 19
In the Bowl game, FSU got back on track somewhat. The 'Noles faced 23 passing downs, and ran successful plays on 10 of them. That's not too bad- a 43% clip.
The 'Noles ran 6 times on Passing Downs, and were successful on 3, for a success rate of 50%. That's pretty consistent with the 'Noles performance all season when running in passing downs. Here were the plays:
UW: 2-13, run for 11
UW: 2-10, run for 8
UW: 3-5, run for 5
FSU threw 17 passes in passing situations, and had success on 7 of those tries. Let's have a look:
UW: 2-7, pass for 10
UW: 2-10, pass for 9
UW: 2-8, pass for 20
UW: 2-8, pass for 29
UW: 2-15, pass for 12
UW: 3-19, pass for 20
UW: 3-9, pass for 18

I know some of you like things in chart form. Let's do that.

Game	Success Rate on Passing Downs	Rushing Success on Passing Downs	Passing Success on Passing Downs
Wake	8/ 32 (25%)	4/ 11 (36%)	4/ 21 (19%)
Colorado	6/ 20 (35%)	3/ 8 (35%)	4/ 12 (33%)
Miami	14/ 28 (50%)	8/ 15 (63%)	6/ 13 (46%)
NC State	12/ 29 (41%)	7/ 17 (41%)	5/ 12 (42%)
V Tech	5/ 25 (20%)	1/ 10 (10%)	4/ 15 (27%)
G Tech	10/ 17 (59%)	3/ 4 (75%)	7/ 13 (54%)
Clemson	6/ 18 (33%)	4/ 8 (50%)	2/ 10 (20%)
BC	5/ 21 (24%)	2/ 4 (50%)	3/ 17 (18%)
Maryland	5/ 16 (31%)	2/ 6 (33%)	3/ 10 (30%)
Florida	5/ 27 (19%)	2/ 8 (25%)	3/ 19 (16%)
Wisconsin	10/ 23 (43%)	3/ 6 (50%)	7/ 17 (41%)
Totals	86/ 256 (34%)	39/ 97 (40%)	47/ 159 (30%)

And there we have it. The success on passing downs was undeniably buyoed by the ability ot Ponder, Smith, and Thomas to run in situations where the defense was expecting the pass.

Author Nole44 had an excellent comment I wanted to highlight:

1. FSU was 25% more likely to succeed running the ball on passing downs than throwing the ball on passing downs (40% success rate v. 30%). This makes me think we didn't run the ball enough on passing downs.

2. Based on my own recollection, a decent amount of the successful pass plays in passing situations came from bubble screens and similar quick hit passes (which were not featured in 2007). These operated almost like a run in my opinion, keeping the linebackers from cheating up too much and giving our lineman space to run out into the second level after hitting their double team. This bubble screen inflation, for lack of a better term, only underscores how incapable the offensive line was of creating and holding a pocket.

I touched on this above, but he's right. The dropback passing game was even worse when you consider that FSU threw a ton of screens (not dropback passes) and often had success with them.

Though I probably didn't need to list out all of those passes, I think you can see the point. FSU rarely had a completed pass go further than the 1st down marker. That's where the PPP+ (explosiveness) statistic comes in. FSU's passing game was not explosive because the line could not pass protect long enough for the players to run down the field. Almost all of the big pass plays came on screens (which don't require good protection) and jump balls (which don't require good protection). It's okay to have a low completion- high yards per catch passing game, but FSU's yards per catch were not even remotely high enough to make up for all of the blown protections.

The other obvious takeaway is that the success on passing downs came disproportionately from the run game, which isn't a bad thing, but it could be quite misleading to see the success on passing downs. One would think that the 'Noles passing game on 3rd downs was quite good, but we now see that it was the run game and particularly Ponder's legs in the passing situations that propped up the performance. There's a reason the passing numbers got worse and the overall offensive performance on passing downs improved: line play. The line was super quick and could adeptly lock onto smaller defenders when running the ball on passing downs. As discussed above, they still lacked the physical maturity to pass protect. Luckily, there are other ways to demonstarte this:

Bill Connelley discusses these here and here. It's a great measurement which separates offensive line play from the other players in the best available way. No measure is perfect, but it does do a nice job of comparing year to year performance. It doesn't disproportionately reward draw plays, as most of a draw play after the first few yatds is a back making people miss- even though FSU's offensive line is probably the best in the nation at downfield blocking, due to their athleticism. Here you go:

Performance	'07 Ranking	'08 Ranking
Close Line Yards +	85th	52nd
Passing Downs Line Yards +	56th	112th
Non-Passing Downs Line Yards +	91st	36th

Contrast much? Remember our discussion above on FSU switching to an ultra-light and young offensive line which was atypical of a young line which would be big and uncoordinated. This 112th ranking might surprise some of you who are constantly inundated with the Seminole media's praise of the offensive line. We're guilty here as well, as we too often said the offensive line was playing great instead of saying they were playing great considering they are the youngest group in college football. It's like saying she's not a bad ballplayer-- for a girl. The 2007 offensive line was decent in pass protection and abysmal in the run game. The 2008 offensive line was very good in the run game and terrible in pass protection. The tables turned.

I also found this article interesting, http ://www .footballoutsiders .com/walkthrough /2009/walkthrough -i-am-gm, I pulled some pointers on dealing with young quarterbacks. It doesn't discuss dealing with a young offensive line specifically, but some of this should apply to our discussion.

Run the football. It seems simple enough, but some teams forget that the newbie probably isn't ready to pass 45 times per game. Run more often on first-and-10 and second-and-long. Don't be afraid to run or throw a short pass on third-and-long; sometimes it's better to give the defense a chance to go to work than to put too much pressure on the first time QB.

As you can see from the numbers above and the numbers last season, FSU did a great job with this. They limited risk through the run game in an attempt to keep the pressure off the passing game- a passing game they knew was likely to perform poorly at times due to the choices they made in dealing with a pretty unfortunate situation at offensive line.

Increase your protection: Rookie quarterbacks, even great ones, aren't going to read a defense and expertly find the fifth option on a pass. Given the choice between more reads and more blockers, choose extra blockers. Use six and seven man protection schemes often (keeping in backs and tight ends).

Rolling the pocket and using additional blockers limits the offense, but when a rookie is calling the signals, it's better to be limited and well-executed than complicated and confusing.

A friend of ours, Oline0175 (highly respected high school offensive coordinator), had this to say about how FSU did with this idea: Thats definitely how I'd classify our passing game. FSU tried to keep it simple. They limited the scheme for the sake of the QB and WR's, but thats more because they couldn't count on the protection to be there for down the field stuff and the WR's to run the correct routes. Ponder also struggled at times to know where to go with the ball though, particularly in post-snap reads.

Run some low-risk junk. QB runs, direct snaps, unbalanced lines, etc.

This is obvious, FSU ran their QB more than they had in 15 years.

Limit the decisions. Handoffs, option, play-action, screens, pre-snap reads to constraint plays, and rollouts. Get the ball in the hands of the playmakers without having to make difficult downfield throws or complex reads.

This of course depends on experience and time. Balanced teams will usually be more simple. All pass teams will be more pass difficult (Texas Tech) and run teams will be more run difficult(Georgia Tech). I prefer a balanced offense with an even mix of running schemes and pass schemes. Your pass schemes will need to be less intensive so the players can learn and get the necessary reps to be successful. Theres a reason option teams run option. The goal of an OC always should be to get the ball into the playmakers hands but sometimes you have to be creative. You need to move him around, just like UF did with Percy

Mix easy-to-read passes with a good running game, extra protection, and a dash of trickery, and you have an offense that a (good) rookie can succeed in throughout the season. It's that simple- provided you're not also dealing with a terrible pass blocking offensive line. Then it's not that simple.

And there's also Coach Saban on young QB's.

Q. From a defensive point of view, when you're facing a quarterback that doesn't have much experience, how do you try to take advantage of that? At the same time with an inexperienced quarterback this year, how do you try to guide him through games until he gets that experience?

COACH SABAN: Well, you know, I think that everyone develops at a little different pace and rate, depending on their ability to learn the knowledge and experience, how they learn from their lessons. And I think specifically in our case Greg McElroy learns very quickly and has had some experience. But I also understand that until he makes plays in the game, he's not gonna fully have, you know, the trust and respect of all of his teammates, even though they really, really like him and they really like him as a leader.

I think the biggest mistake you can make in development of any new player, young player, inexperienced player, is give him too many things to do, and increase the multiples of the kind of mental errors that they can make.

I think that it depends, from a defensive perspective, who the guy is that you're trying to defend. If he's a smart guy, if you try to pressure him, you may enhance his chances of making plays because he understands it, he sees it, and his reads actually become a little easier.

If you try to play all coverage against him and don't pressure him and he's a good runner, he may hurt you with his feet.

So I think to really answer that question effectively, you'd have to know the specifics of who you were trying to defend.

We ask our own coach about this. Oline0175 pays his bills by coaching offensive football and he recently won a state championship.

"I think we ask every player to do the same thing whether they are a freshmen or a senior. It's holding them to a higher standard. But the case here was different; Jimbo is building for the long haul. He wanted the class of 2008 to be the class that changes things for this program, so alot of them were asked to play as freshmen and we took our lumps while they learned on the job. In the future, freshmen won't be asked to play as big of roles so they can learn at their own pace and do what they can successfully if they play. Also every player learns at a different speed. We'll have some kids come through here or pick up on things quickly but struggle getting acclimated to the speed of the game and we'll have some who just can't pick the game up and play fast enough that it doesn't matter,

You'll notice that he discussed bringing pressure or not bringing pressure. What he didn't discuss is being able to get pressure without bringing extra rushers. He didn't discuss it because it is a huge luxury for a defense, and one that they normall do not expect to have, but that teams did have against FSU in 2008.

The Look Ahead

There is much reason for optimism. The 'Noles return their entire starting offensive line in LT Andrew Datko, LG Rodney Hudson, C Ryan McMahon (who should havea healthy foot), RG David Spurlock, and RT Zebrie Sanders. The line bulked up more than 10lbs per man while actually losing body fat. Their play in the spring was much improved and they have been the most impressive group in the summer workouts. There will be much more on this in the preview, but the future for this offensive line looks very bright.

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Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Offensive Backfield

FrankDNole — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:13:48 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, and the Secondary will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Offensive Backfield, to determine if this unit has progressed, expected to continue at the same level, or regressed, in comparison to last years backfield unit.

First the obvious. Florida State’s offense will only go as far as it’s backfield takes them because everything rest on that units shoulders. Speaking of the offense, here are some tidbits you may find interesting, uplifting, and/or depressing.

A) With eight starters returning, the offense returns the most starters since the 2004 season when nine returned. That was the last season the Seminoles won 10 games.

2) Players responsible for 71% of Florida State’s points in 2008 will not be back in 2009. That is the lowest number of returning points in the conference.

D) The ACC’s top two scorers in 2008 were both Seminoles, Antone Smithe and Graham Gano, and neither is back this season.

5) The Seminoles finished the year ranked first in scoring offense and second in total offense and rushing offense in the ACC.

L) FSU’s rushing offense improved from 91st in the nation in 2007 to 33rd last season. That was the ninth best improvement of any BSC school.

Here are some of my biggest question regarding the backfield as we get ready to start the 2-a-days this Friday.

Will Christian Ponder throw crisp and accurate spirals, proving he's gotten better this year with the experience he gained by starting every game last year?

Will he follow up with a more consistent performance?

Or will he be hearing the crowd chanting "EJ, EJ", which will surely come if he fails to deliver?

Will Jermaine Thomas be able to maintain the incredible 7.0 yard average from last year as the feature back, and stay healthy while taking the pounding that comes with being a feature back?

Will he put together a breakout season where he establishes himself as one of the ACC’s elite workhorse backs?

Or will Jimbo Fisher decide to make the tailback position a position by committee, and split playing time between Thomas, Ty Jones, and Tavares Pressley?

Before we get into the specifics of the positions in the backfield unit, if you haven’t already read these two very interesting perspectives by missourinole, I encourage you to do so. In both of his stories, What So Great About Ponder? and Jermaine Thomas: The Next Warrick Dunn? he presents some very good analytical comparisons with past FSU greats, and you the TN members told him how you felt. Some of the issues addressed in his stories might seem redundant here today, but the performance of these two positions will dictate what kind of season we will have, and how we will be talking about it come January.

QUARTERBACKS, TAILBACKS & FULLBACKS

2008 QUARTERBACK=Christian Ponder started all 13 games. His stats for last year were: EFF=115.0, PA=318, PC=177, YDS=2006, PCT=.557, TD=14, INT=13, LNG=54, AVG/GM=154.3, RA=119, YDS=597, LOSS=174, NET=423, AVG=3.6, TD=4, LNG=45, AVG/GM=32.5 (Total Offense=423R + 2006P = 2429 or 186.8 AVG/GM).

Ponder was backed up by D’Vontrey Richardson and Drew Weatherford who are both gone.

Christian Ponder had one of the best seasons in school history for a quarterback when it came to the ground game. The sophomore rushed for 423 yards finishing with the fourth-highest single season rushing total by a QB in school history. However in recent history since 1950, only Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward rushed for more yards in one season than Ponder did in 2008 and he is just the fourth FSU QB to ever score a rushing touchdown in four consecutive games. Ponder completed passes to seven or more receivers in seven of 13 games in 2008, and he hit eight or more receivers with a pass four times.

2009 PROJECTED QUARTERBACK=Christian Ponder. Redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel will back up Ponder but has not thrown a pass in a collegiate game up to this point. Even though Manuel did not see any action in 2008, he was instrumental to the team’s success earning scout team MVP for the offense.

2008 TAILBACK=Antone Smith started all 13 games. His stats for last year were: RA=177, YDS=868, LOSS=76, NET=792, AVG=4.5, TD=15, LNG=60, AVG/GM=60.9

Replacing Antone Smith’s 177 carries and 15 rushing touchdown’s is the top priority for the Seminoles this season. If you remove quarterbacks from the equation, Smith’s 117 carries accounted for almost 55% of all the running plays by the Seminoles in 2008.

2009 PROJECTED TAILBACK=Jermaine Thomas is the projected starter with Ty Jones and Tavares Pressley expected to give him breathers.

Jermaine Thomas had a breakout season as a true freshman averaging 7.0 yards per carry on 69 attempts. Thomas finished behind only Sean Jackson and Warrick Dunn in Seminole history for yards per carry by a true freshman. He also had the sixth-best true freshman season in school history for rushing yards. One of Thomas’ greatest strengths in 2008 was his ability to make positive yards on almost every touch. The freshman lost only 10 yards rushing all year.

Carlton "Ty" Jones, a true freshman running back showed flashes of brilliance throughout the 2008 season but was slowed by an ankle injury most of the year. He showed what he was capable of in the Champs Sports Bowl when he rushed four times for 55 yards including a TD. His average of almost 14 yards per carry was more than six times better than any other FSU running back in that game. That final game of the 2008 season illustrated just how good he can be in a backfield with fellow freshman standout Jermaine Thomas. He also had a career high run of 30 yards in the first game of his collegiate career against Western Carolina.

Tavares Pressley was redshirted in 2008 after suffering an ACL injury in his left knee, but most recent reports indicate he will be ready to go this season. After a few days of practice, we should have a better idea of his prognosis.

2008 FULLBACK=Marcus Sims started 4 games and Sederick Holloway started 2. Sims has transferred and apparently Holloway is no longer on the team.

2009 PROJECTED FULLBACK=NONE. Apparently we will not be using a true fullback this year. Matt Dunham has rejoined the team but is expected to be used more in a H-Back role, similar to a smaller pass catching tight end.

OTHERS WHO CONTRIBUTED IN THE 2008 BACKFIELD AND ARE NOW GONE=D’Vo Richardson (RA=35, YDS=288, LOSS=34, NET=254, AVG=7.3, TD=3, LNG=55, AVG/GM=25.4, PASS EFF=121.27, PA=44, PC=23, YDS=315, PCT=.523, TD=3, INT=3, LNG=39, AVG/GM=31.5).

Drew Weatherford and Preston Parker also contributed and are also gone.

OTHERS WHO MAY CONTRIBUTE IN 2009=Lonnie Pryor (RB), Chris Thompson (RB), Corey Eddinger (QB), Will Secord (QB)

So there you have it. Considering this will be Ponder's second season running the Seminole's offense, it's likely we could see improvements made considering he'll have a better understanding of Jimbo Fisher’s offense, and his available weaponry. Manuel should also be better considering he too has had a full season in this offense under his belt.

The running game should have a much improved offensive line, so maybe that will improve their deceiving production of 4.8 yards per carry in 2008. I say deceiving because many of the long runs which inflated this average, were runs by the QB’s, which hopefully will not come down to that again this year.

Again, a lot rests on this groups shoulders. If the Seminoles receive favorable answers to those questions I posed above, Florida State will win the ACC’s Atlantic Division, will be playing in the ACC Championship Game come December while continuing the nations longest streak of Bowl appearances with 28 consecutive bowls, in what hopefully will be the Orange Bowl, at least.

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE OFFENSIVE BACKFIELD=PROGRESSION

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Poll

2009 FSU OFFENSIVE BACKFIELD-PROGRESSION, CONTINUATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Thursday August 6 at 11:55 PM.

PROGRESSION

189 votes

CONTINUATION

3 votes

REGRESSION

4 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

Inside the Numbers: Parsing Florida State's Passers via Yards Per Pass Play

FSUncensored — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:00:15 -0000

** Apologies for the typos. I typically come up with this stuff after I finish my LS reading, which is often late at night.**

Longtime readers will remember that our group of writers initially hit it big with The Weatherford Report, a piece that stirred up a lot of controversy at other sites. The Quarterback always inspires debate because he is single most important position on the field.

Before we get to the numbers, let's review some qualifiers.

Many believe that the 2008 offensive line was far better than the 2007 edition at run blocking, but much worse in pass protection. I agree with this, and the player's body composition supports this. The 2008 edition fit Trickett's vision in that they were what he wanted his freshmen linemen, but he never planned on playing the youngest line in the nation. Our protections were quite simple and often ineffective as we didn't have the bulk to handle some of the inside moves, compensated for the lack of bulk by tightening our formations, with the unfortunate consequence of allowing a lot of outside rush. I believe that problem will be somewhat resolved this year.
All of the raw data that I extrapolated these numbers from came from Seminoles.com, and any inaccuracy in the raw data is a result of the official scorekeeper. Some of these scorer's decisions are judgment calls. Occasionally the FSU scorer calls a bubble screen a run. I can't figure out any rhyme or reason to the decision. I made no attempt to change these scoring decisions.
I made no adjustment for bad snaps.
I did edit out kneel downs and hail Mary attempts.
Yards Per Attempt (not completion) is the best stat for measuring quarterback play. The key is that it, in effect, combines completion percentage and yards per completion. The NFL QBs who have had the highest totals ever in a season are as diverse as Joe Montana (exceptionally high completion percentage) to more long-ball throwers. It penalizes the guy who inflates his completion percentage and the guy who points to his long-balls while ignoring how inefficient he is.
The accepted standard adjustment (SmartFootball.blogspot) for an interception is negative forty five yards (-45 yds). The experts who work for NFL teams (and UF and Michigan) crunched the numbers, and this is about what an interception takes away from you in terms of field position, scoring probability, etc.
The other problem is QB sacks/runs. College stats make this hard of course: in the NFL, sacks are counted against passing yards and thus factored into yards per attempt. In college, sacks are recorded as rushing yards. I parsed out the sacks and they are now classified like the NFL would.

Inside you'll find four charts. That's right... four. Go crazy folks.

ACC Play Only (& No Duke)	Passing Plays*	Attempts	Completions	Yards	Int's	1st Downs + TDs	Sacked	Yards Lost	Rushes	Yards	1st Downs + TD's (Rushing)
Weatherford (2007)	132	123	67	737	0	35	9	-40	18	52	3
Ponder (2008)	226	212	120	1252	10	64	14	-111	72	419	31

* Passing plays are throws + sacks.

Those are the Raw Numbers. Here are the advanced numbers:

Note that "Yards Per Pass Play" is= ((Passing Yards - the yards lost from sacks -(interceptions *45))/ (Passes Thrown + Sacks))

	Weatherford (2007)	Ponder (2008)
Yards Per Passing Play	5.3	3.1
% of passing plays ending in Sacks	6.8%	6.2%
% of passing plays resulting in a 1st Down or Touchdown	26%	28%
Yards Per Rush (sacks are removed)	2.9	5.8
% of Quarterback runs resulting in a 1st Down or Touchdown	17%	43%

5.3 and 3.1 yards per pass play are both unacceptable.
Our passing game was not good in 2008. Ponder's throwing wasn't good
Very difficult to ascertain how many of Ponder's runs were called passes in which he escaped the rush.
Ponder's throws resulted in a 1st down or touchdown more often than Weatherford, despite Weatherford throwing for 70% more yards per passing play. What does this show? More than anything, I believe it shows that Drew threw to avoid interceptions and sacks, and not necessarily for TD's and 1st downs-- but that's old Weatherford stuff.
Ponder was much more mobile but sacked more frequently than Drew. This seems to support the idea that the offensive line was quite bad in pass protection. For a comparison, Drew was sacked on 33% of pass plays in 2008 (compared to Ponder's 6.8%), more than 4 times as often.
Ponder needed to check it down more often, particularly on 2nd down. I particularly remember him missing Antone underneath on some wheel routes.
Side Note: in handling this, I found that we handled the blitz really well, but struggled with teams who could destroy our 5 and 6 man pass protections with only a standard 4 man rush (not a blitz) and play 7 man coverage.
Ponder's rushing numbers really bode well for those of us who believe the threat of him keeping the ball kept defenses honest and improved the overall effectiveness of our run game as the backs had better holes. The new look run blocking line also helped.

Were the opponents the same?

I attempted to compare apples to apples, but things do change from season to season.

Team	2007 Defensive Rank	2008 Defensive Rank
Wake Forest	33rd	3rd
Clemson	11th	4th
Maryland	56th	54th
Virginia Tech	3rd	10th
Boston College	17th	2nd
Miami	43rd	61st
NCST	47th	58th
Georgia Tech	Did Not Face	28th
Average Opponent's Defensive Rank Rank	30th	27th

3 spots doesn't seem like much, but that does add up over time. I'd rather face the 30th rated defense rather than the 27th rated defense each week.

Did anyone realize how bad Miami's defense has been over the last two years?

Offense v. Defense

	Team Rank	Opponent Adjusted Offensive Rank	Opponent Adjusted Defensive Rank
2006 (7-6, 3-5 ACC)	33rd	47th	31st
2007 (7-6, 3-5 ACC)	37th	82nd	31st
2008 (9-4, 5-3 ACC)	10th	15th	20th

That 2007 offense was really bad.
We probably underrated the impact that a running quarterback can have in college football.
That 15th rated offense is not a typo-- we played a murderous schedule of defenses.
2008 was the first time in this decade (to my knowledge) that the offense was better than the defense. Still, it was only slightly better. Expect the offense to significantly outperform the defense for the first time... well... since 1990.

Final Word

This offense was the 15th best in the Nation last year by the most reliable measure, but it can still improve tremendously. If FSU can increase its yards per pass play to 5.5, it will be in contention as a top five offense Nationally. It should remain as the best offense in the ACC.

Future Work

If you would like to sign up for a small project (less than 20 minutes) to go through a game's play by play data, please let me know. Let me know which ACC game you wish to go through. It's only 40 lines of data.

AP Photo (yes, we partnered with the AP now in a deal for pictures).

What do you think? We want your thoughts.

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Taiwan Easterling Injured, Everette Brown Hot, Amato Re-signed, and the Big East Hurting

FSUncensored — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 22:40:41 -0000

Taiwan Easterling will miss spring practiced with a ruptured left Achilles tendon. Surgery scheduled for the 20th.

Dinnich has an interesting story about Bert reed growing up.

One thing Reed said he wants to make a point of this offseason is "being accountable" with the coaches and his teammates -- running the right routes, and making the right blocks. It's consistency that Reed has struggled with, both on and off the field.

"That's one of the main things with me," Reed said. "It's been that way since I got here. 'He'll do it right three times and he won't do it right one time.' That's been the thing with me -- going to class but then getting that last absence. It correlates off the field and on the field. That's what they always tell me. That's what I'm trying to work on, discipline and doing what's right every time."

Meh. Bert Reed can be a good slot guy and rub bubble screens. It would be great if he would stay out of trouble because he's not a thug (I've met him before). We have some thugs on our team and Bert isn't one of them. He's the guy who just does stupid stuff. He also runs his mouth a ton and that gets him in trouble.

Mel Kiper had thoughts on Everette Brown and Drew Weatherford:

ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. said star Everette Brown is a 4-3 defensive end could position himself "solidly in the early to mid first round’’ with a good workout at week’s NFLScouting Combine.

When asked if quarterback Drew Weatherford, a three-year starter only to lose his job before the 2008 season and play sparingly this past year, had any shot to make a NFL team, Kiper was succinct:

"I don’t think so. No.’’

Brown is better suited to play OLB in a 3-4. I discussed that in our scouting report.

I'm so happy that the beat guys can't continue to slobber all over our personable backup quarterback anymore. Drew will be a good guy in politics.

Amato and Mickey have new contracts while Spetman is at least paying lip service to the urgency of the Trickett situation. A contract offer is on the table from FSU.

Dr. Saturday has a story about moving marquee games from Saturday to Thursday nights and how it will cripple the Big East, who appears on Thursday night just once after making a living off the exposure from '05-'08

Thursday, Sept. 3: 7 p.m. ESPN South Carolina at N.C. State
Monday, Sept. 7: 8 p.m. ESPN Miami (Fla.) at Florida State
Thursday, Sept. 10: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Clemson at Georgia Tech
Thursday, Sept. 17: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Georgia Tech at Miami
Thursday, Sept. 24: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Mississippi at South Carolina
Thursday, Oct. 1: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Colorado at West Virginia
Thursday, Oct. 8: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Nebraska at Missouri
Thursday, Oct. 22: 8 p.m. ESPN Florida State at North Carolina
Thursday, Oct. 29: 7:30 p.m. ESPN North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Thursday, Nov. 5: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Thursday, Nov. 19: 7:30 p.m. ESPN Colorado at Oklahoma State
Thursday, Nov. 26: 8 p.m. ESPN Texas at Texas A&M
Thursday, Dec. 3: 9 p.m. ESPN Oregon State at Oregon

Shut Up Drew Weatherford

FSUncensored — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:11:33 -0000

Florida State fans are elated that quarterback Christian Ponder is playing better than any FSU QB has in this decade. The improvement at QB is probably the #1 reason for Florida State's improvement in 2008.

Former starter and alleged team player Drew Weatherford, however, is delusional and bitter. The Nole writers love this guy, and apparently, Weatherford isn't happy for Ponder. Will this guy ever shut up? These writers are going to have to open up DrewWeatherfordArenaFootball.com or something when he finally graduates. This massive circle jerk is ridiculous. Can't these guys write about anything else? Why not serenade him every morning? Maybe include him in your family portrait?

STOP WRITING "DREW IS A TEAM PLAYER" ARTICLES. Just cut it out. Everyone wants to root for the no-talent team player guy, but guess what? Everyone's favorite underdog isn't talking like a team player.

This summer I penned The Weatherford Report, detailing how Drew was a much over hyped quarterback who was handcuffing our offense. It's pretty amazing that we let this guy start for 3 years (the real reason was that Xavier Lee, his competition, was constantly in trouble. Consider that when you read this article.

Let's check out some of these ridiculous quotes.

Drew Weatherford waits and wonders, why?

Because he was terrible and a good division 1 program finally got the sort of talent at the QB spot that they should have?

After three years and 33 starts, the owner of the Atlantic Coast Conference record for passing yards as a freshman has thrown only two passes this season - completing one for 18 yards: A victim of coach-in-waiting Jimbo Fisher's youth movement at Florida State.

To say this decision was about the youth movement is now ridiculous. This decision was about ability, performance and production. Drew did not product. He wasn't a victim of any youth movement. He was a victim of his own on-field failures, heck, all FSU fans were victims of Weatherford's pathetic play.

"I really think that if someone was better than me I could admit it," said Weatherford, a fifth-year senior who went from starter to third team just three days before Florida State's season opener.

Memo to Drew: this current staff wouldn't have recruited you. You aren't any good. You lack skills. You won't be drafted. You're not listed on most draft sites, and the ones who do list you rank you 34th out of 35, or list you as "outside the top 600 collegiate players"! You led us to 76 PUNTS last year. We're on pace for under 45 this year. You failed here as a player. The charity work is great and you should stick to giving interviews that don't make you seem crazy.

We're lucky you don't scout for us. Also, why does it matter when he got appropriately moved to 3rd string?

"That's when things really, really, really didn't add up," Weatherford said. "To swallow your pride and line up behind a guy that you're think you're better than every day is very, very difficult."

Hmm, never being in the top half of ACC QB's adds up. Thank God that we have a competent evaluator of QBs on our staff. Drew isn't in Ponder's league, and isn't in a healthy Richarson's league either.

"It's interesting what's happened to a lot of big-name quarterbacks this year," Weatherford said. "Either they're not playing or not playing as well as they have in the past. I don't know what's going on."

Coaches usually bench a really good player randomly. Oh wait, maybe they play the best players?

"There are certain things that Devo can do that I can't do when it comes to running (and) Christian can do some things I can't do," Weatherford conceded. "But overall neither of them are a better quarterback than I am right now."

Things they do better:

Throw
Run
Read defenses
Lead the team
Understand the offense

Things Weatherford does better

Stand stoically on the sideline
whine, bitch, and moan.

Hey Cinderella Drew, your run is over. You would have never started if we had a competent alternative. Instead, we had a crazy talented guy guy who would get high and steal the earrings of a McDonalds employee while in the drive thru.

"I completely disagree with their decision," Weatherford said. "I respect their right to make the decision (but) I deserve to be the starter."

They are paid to make decisions. It's more their job than their right. I'd love to know why Weatherford "deserves" to be the starter. The justification better not be his laughable on field performance.

Can you just shut up now? You were doing so well with the "Senior leadership, another set of eyes, like a second coach, mentor" role! Why say this stuff now?

But I really don't like to talk about it much at all," sighed Weatherford, who is still emotional about a decision he's struggled to to accept. "You feel like you've been cheated, that something's been taken away from you.

Please, stop talking about it. I bet that sigh was full of leadership and determination. It's never a good sign when Gator and Cane fans are openly rooting for you to keep your job.

What a joke. It's pretty clear that he's failed to realize just how lucky he was to ever play a snap in major college football.

Update: for a rebuttal, see Scalpem's "Shut Up Tomahawk Nation"

Suspensions

WR Bert Reed (part time starter), WR Jarmon Fortson (reserve), and LB Nigel Carr (reserve) are suspended for the Clemson game.

The only real loss here is Reed, as the other 2 rarely play. This story was apparently first reported by Chris Nee of warchant.com. We were unaware that this was "premium content."

Well, that sucks. Now FSU is in a tough spot. If Reed is suspended for this game only, we know that either the last suspension or this suspension was NOT for missing class, because FSU's policy is a 2nd missed class infraction is 4 games. The coaches listed the reason as "class attendance" when reed was suspended for the NC State game.

Something to keep in mind on the Reed suspension: if you choose to believe that the prior suspension was for missing class, and then saw his heartfelt apology, you're probably disappointed here. Don't forget though, that Bert actually could have turned his behavior around 2 weeks ago and just now been caught for something that he did, oh, say, within the last 30 days that is just now coming to light? That is, ahem-- very possible. I think we should play double or nothing with Bert. If he does it again, we know he hasn't changed since the apology.

Frequent TomahawkNation commenter Fsued chimed in with:

I''m actually very encouraged by this

I think these 1-game suspensions tell us that the “little things” are important again at FSU and the fact that they keep happening tells us that the new regime is going to be relentless about enforcing discipline — whether it be team rules or academics.

I’d much rather see a bunch of one-game suspensions for ticky tack stuff then guys ending up hauled off to jail, flunking out or some other major problem.

Maryland @ VT tonight.

Go Hokies, I think.