SB Nation - Christian Ponder

Florida Rips Florida State's Defense Worse Than It Did Troy or Florida International

FSUncensored — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 20:31:19 -0000

Going into the game against the Gators, Florida State fans knew they would face a tough task. Reasonable fans expected a blowout. They knew that their defense was awful and that the offense, while the ACC's best since expansion, would likely struggle missing 4 starters. 'Nole fans saw their blowout and more. They saw UF put up its best offensive performance of the year. It was better than the Gators could manage against Troy and even better than they had against Florida International.

No, UF didn't score their most points on the season, but points are largely a product of field position, and that involves offense, defense, and special teams. UF gained 13% more yards per snap against Florida State than they did against Florida International. Think about that! 9.25 yards per offensive snap for the Gators. It is an incomprehensible figure.

And what's worse, is that UF didn't even try. They executed an extremely vanilla game plan. UF ran nothing even remotely complicated. Everything Florida ran would have been studied and repped by an opposing defense preparing to face the Gators. After this performance, one has to seriously wonder what Florida State's defensive coaches were doing. If not for the class of Florida coach Urban Meyer, who took a knee at about midfield in the 2nd quarter with roughly a minute and 3 timeouts left, this game could have been much worse. Multiple times, UF ran the same play on back to back occasions. It was perhaps the Gator's simplest game plan in years. To add insult to injury, their greatest fear against their supposed rival, seemed to be injury as opposed to the rival itself. Florida often used the entire play clock before they snapped the ball, shortening the game. It worked. Without having to worry about the opposing defense, UF drained the play clock, ensuring fewer plays and thus fewer opportunities for injury.

As for Florida State's offense, it was not a good performance. But when you evaluate the performance of one team, you must consider the opponent as well. And when you look at UF's defense on the season, you can't help but be blown away. Florida State's offensive performance was the 3rd best by any team against the Gators on the season. As you'll see, only three teams managed more than 4.5 yards per snap of the football. Florida State was one of those teams.

When you consider that Florida State had a freshman quarterback (E.J. Manuel) replacing its excellent Junior signal-caller (Christian Ponder), and was also missing 3 other upperclassmen starters, including All-American Guard Rodney Hudson, Senior Tight End Caz Piurowski, and Senior wide receiver Richard Goodman, Florida State's offense actually performed better than you should have expected.

So why didn't the 'Noles score more? Field position and a lack of defensive or special teams scores seems to be the most obvious answer. Mississippi State scored two defensive touchdowns. UF's defense has allowed only 7 touchdowns all year. No team topped the 20 point margin against Florida's defense. What you saw on that field was a truly elite defense, playing at home. The other reason was the complete lack of opportunities. FSU had only 58 plays with which to work. Only Arkansas (20), Georgia (17), and South Carolina (14) scored more offensive points than the 'Noles (10). And considering FSU also had a missed field goal and an asinine decision by head coach Bobby Bowden to kick a field goal from UF's 2 yard line, down 30-0, Florida State fans really shouldn't have realistically hoped for more points.

The Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators

FSUncensored — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:05:15 -0000

Ignore all the talk. Don't get caught up in all the ideas of motivation or focus. When predicting a game, the elements to focus on are coaching and talent. How much talent does each team have? What has each school done to develop that talent? How does each team use their talent. And will that talent be on the field (injuries). Then and only then should you start to think about strategy, weather conditions, and reasons why one team might be more motivated than the other.

TV: 3:30, CBS
Line: UF -24.5 (95% chance of winning)
Weather: Perfect

I wasn't sure how to write this preview. Because I do not think Florida State has a realistic chance to win. Of the 50 BCS conference teams playing this weekend, Florida State is the largest underdog. Florida is expected to beat FSU by more than double what Alabama is projected to eclipse Auburn by. But the 'Noles do have a chance to win-- about 5%. Let's get into why their chance is so low.

Start with talent. Florida's coaches have done a great job recruiting. Their head coach would never blow off an in-home visit in favor of a paid speaking engagement. Florida has outrecruited FSU over the last four years, particularly in the disastrous FSU recruiting classes of 2006 and 2007. The talent gap between UF and FSU is larger than the talent gap between FSU and UCF. Ouch. That gap will close once Florida State has 11 of 11 coaches recruiting, instead of the 5 that currently pound the pavement in pursuit of the state's top talent.

Florida also has a lot better coaching. Florida has a head coach who is involved with their players. Florida State's head coach appears to have dementia. Florida State has at least 4 lame duck coaches, and maybe as many as 6. Florida's coaches are leaving to take promotions at other big time programs. Almost half of the 'Nole's staff will be let go for ineffectiveness. None have been rumored to be in contention for jobs at a similar quality program.

So UF has a big advantage in coaching and talent. Keep that in mind as we talk specifics.

Florida State's Defense v. UF's Offense

This is a huge advantage to UF. While the media seems to be focusing on the fact that UF's offense is down from a year, ago, they are failing to recognize that it is still one of the best 20 offensive attacks in the country. Florida's offense rates 18th. They are the 2nd best rushing offense in the country, behind only Georgia Tech. People often talk about how UF's offense is high-flying. It's really not. UF is an option team that operates from the shotgun. They are 90's Nebraska, aligned a few yards deeper in the backfield. And their offense is better than any offense Florida State has had this decade- except for FSU's attack this year. Florida is not a passing team. It's rare for Florida to throw more than 20 passes in a game.

But FSU's defense has faced some other offenses in the top 20. Georgia Tech, Miami, BYU, and NC State are all as good as Florida's offense. And they posted insane performance against Florida State's beleaguered defense. Miami gained 7.4 yards per play, BYU 8.9, Georgia Tech 8.5, and NC State 7.8 In a standard game of 70 plays, those per-snap figures come out to 518 yards (Miami), 623 yards (BYU), 595 yards (GTech) and 546 yards (NC State). Florid State has avoided disaster twice this season, but both of those performances came against inept offenses and considering the quality of Florida's offense, to expect UF to gain anything less than 7.5 yards per play is foolish. That's a projection of 525 yards allowed.

Making matters worse, Florida's offense was designed to combat the aggressive 8-man defenses run by legendary Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews and others. Andrews has absolutely no clue how to stop this attack, and even if he did, his defensive staff is not good enough to teach the defensive players how to stop UF's attack. Florida's base plays should be extremely effective against Florida State. This is particularly true because UF's tackles have not been great this year. Some teams have exploited that weakness, but Florida State cannot as their edge players have the worst defensive ends coach in the country. When an opponent's relative weakness turns into a strength because your own opposing weakness is far greater, you have a problem. You have to effectively mix zone and man against Florida. Florida State cannot do that.

Florida has cracked 7 yards per play 3 times this year against D1 opponents. They did it against 3 of the worst 4 defenses the played: Kentucky, Troy, and Florida International. Florida State's defense is certainly, worse than Kentucky, but it is a bit better than Troy or Florida International. As a 'Nole fan, it pains me to type that. Oh, and FSU's defense starts 6 senior and is tremendously healthy. There is no youth or health experience for this group.

Here's where the mental factors come into play. Florida basically had a bye week last weekend, playing Florida International. They will be fresh, but they could be distracted because it is senior day or because they play Alabama next week. Also, will UF pull their starters? If so, how soon? Florida should get 7.5 yards per play. How many points they score depends on their offense, defense, special teams, and how many plays they get. If one or both teams elect to hold the ball and milk clock, the number of snaps will be reduced. If UF gets 60 plays, that's 450 yards. If they get 70 plays, that's 525 yards. If they somehow got 80 snaps, we're looking at 600 yards of offense. I also expect UF to block a punt or score on a punt return, because Florida State has been sloppy in that area as of late.

Florida State's Offense v. Florida's Defense

Florida has the nation's best defense last year. This year, it is about as good. I don't think there has been a drop off, but rather that other defenses across the nation have improved. Perhaps if they played better offenses, they would get a bigger opponent adjustment and be rated higher. Florida has played the #11 offense (Arkansas), along with #24 (UGA), and #33 (Tennessee). Through 11 games, the Florida State offense has been the 6th best attack in the country. That is tremendous. But it's not necessarily indicative of the offense Florida State will put on the field tomorrow afternoon.

Florida State has now lost arguably the best quarterback in the country, Christian Ponder. They are without All-American Guard Rodney Hudson. Senior Tight End Caz Piurowski, considered a likely all-conference selection is gone for the year. Leading receiver Richard Goodman (at the time he was injured) is also out. That's 4 upperclassmen starters out for Florida State's offense. In their place are a Freshman, Junior, Sophomore, Sophomore. Florida State's offense will have just a single Senior on the field Saturday. This offense is now a shell of its former self. Is it better than Arkansas at #11? Tennessee at #33? Possibly.

As for the Gator defense, it is tremendous. UF's defense is right there with BC, Clemson, and North Carolina. And to my knowledge, it is not missing any key players due to injury. I mention that because when FSU played Clemson, the tigers were missing their best defensive player and then lost their two starting corners during the game. Carolina lost a linebacker and a starting corner. No team has gained 400 yards on the Gators. Only one team has cracked 350 yards, and that was Arkansas, who just barely bested the mark with 357 yards.

Florida State has two options. They can try to run, run, run, and hold the ball. Each run play can bleed 40 seconds off the game clock, and that is 1/90th of the game. But I hope they do not do that. It's not the offense's responsibility to hide the defense. The offense should try to score, not just shorten the game (though that is probably the more prudent strategy). Florida plays a ton of loose man coverage. FSU can exploit that with screens, which favors the 'Noles because FSU is a great screen team. I do not think UF will allow this, however, and then things should get interesting.

Why does a team allow the short stuff? Because they fear the deep game. If a team doesn't fear the deep game, there is no disincentive to take away the short game. That is what I expect UF to do. Expect the run game without Caz and Hudson to sputter and for freshman quarterback E.J. Manuel to turn the ball over and show some very erratic play typical of a freshman making only his 3rd start. In all, I expect FSU to gain 290 yards on about 65 plays. That's about 4.5 yards per play. I will concede that this number could be higher if UF pulls their starters early enough for Florida State to rack up some yards in garbage time (when the outcome of the game is already decided and the victor is not using all their resources to stop the loser).

Can FSU win this game? Yes, they can. To do so, I think the 'Noles would need:

a major injury to Tebow or one of the UF offensive tackles,
a special teams play for a score or that gives FSU the ball inside the UF 25 yard line,
two scores of 40+ yards (hard to drive on UF), and
4 more UF turnovers than the 'Noles give up themselves.

Final Score Prediction: FSU 13, UF 49 Chance of winning: 3%

I would still pick UF to beat FSU by more than 10 points even if UF had their 2nd team offense. Please spare me the histrionics. If Florida crushes the 'Noles, you shouldn't be shocked. There is absolutely no reason to have a meltdown. You don't freak out when the sun rises because you expect it. You should also expect this. A huge loss here won't diminish all that the offense accomplished this year and won't dampen hopes for the future once FSU has a real head coach and competent defensive staff. The freak outs should have occurred when Florida State put a defense on the field that would be middle of the pack in the Sun Belt conference. I will be at the game to see this in person, but please make sure to join us here with all your 'Nole friends for our always fun live game-threads!

Inside, I have the weekly picks...

I didn't add anything from Sunday night, so the picks are the same as when I posted them Sunday night:

Current Record: +30.10

WMU -9.5
Bowling Green -7
Troy -9.5
Ark State -6.5
MTSU -3
UF -21
Stanford -6.5
USC -11
Navy -6.5
UNLV -3
LSU -3
Arizona -2.5
Washington -22.5
Houston -27
BYU -7
GT -7
TTech -22.5
UCF -2.5
TCU -41.5
Ole Miss -6.5
Tennessee -3
Missouri -3
UNC -5
UConn -11.5
Nevada +10.5
Temple -2.5
EMU +17

Will FSU Score Saturday?

mlmintampa — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:37:32 -0000

Florida's defense this season is actually better than 2008's SEC and National Championship team. At this point in 2008, UF had allowed an average of 12 points and 279 yards per game. Now, they are allowing 10 points and 230 yards per game. To be fair, the 2009 team has faced lesser out-of-conference teams and a weakened SEC East. But they have had to shoulder the load more than 2008's team in that the 2009 offense is not scoring like last season's offense (46ppg in 2008; 36ppg in 2009; ypg is nearly equal).

Florida State's offense is scoring about the same, but plagued by the same inability to finish as the Gators. (34ppg, 380ypg in 2008; 31ppg, 434ypg in 2009). The Noles have been also hurt by the loss of Christian Ponder, forcing E.J. Manuel into a role he was not ready to play (three interceptions last week against Maryland). That FSU's defense is allowing an average of 30 points and 434 yards per game, only puts more pressure on the first year starter.

The question isn't that will FSU score, despite the title. But, will they score enough to win?

As a homer, I have confidence in the Gator defense, especially on Senior Day. But, aside from a seven point crapfest against USF when they couldn't do anything right in the red zone, FSU scores enough to scare the Gators. Without Ponder, their passing game suffers but Manuel can run the ball. He has rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown in wins against Wake Forest and Maryland, while throwing 4 INTs, 1 TD and 426 yards.

RB Jermaine Thomas will be leaned on, but he needs about 20 touches to make a real impact. CB/KR Greg Reid (834 return yards, 1 TD) is also trying his hardest to get people to pay attention to him;

"Oh yeah. Hopefully they’ll punt the ball to me," Reid said. "I’m pretty sure Urban Meyer, I ain’t scared of him, I ain’t afraid of him. I know he wants to kind of get some payback. So I hope he brings it. I hope they punt the ball to me maybe three or four times. Out of them, I’m gonna take one of them to the house, I know that."

But the offense for FSU rests on the shoulders on young Manuel. Which is a huge advantage for the Gators. I would expect the Gators to try to make Manuel beat them, since he has not shown yet that he can take over a game.

Florida State Smashes Encouraging And Embarrassing ACC Records

FSUncensored — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:34:36 -0000

[Note: Mickey Andrews, Jimbo Fisher, and EJ Manuel will have their regularly scheduled press conferences at 1:30, per usual. You can watch it at this link, for free: http://all-access.cbssports.com/player.html?code=fsu&media=132352 ]

[Note: Please view this article in "WIDE MODE" Select this option on the menu to your right. ]

By now, you probably realize that Florida State's offense under the direction of reigning ACC offensive coordinator of the year Jimbo Fisher is very, very good. They put up 400 yards on only 50 plays against Maryland in their 29-26 win over the weekend. And any ACC fan knows that FSU's offense is the best in the conference. But not only is the Seminole offense the best in the ACC this season, but it is the best in the ACC since the conference expanded in 2005 and is the best offense the ACC has seen at least as far back as CFBStats.com keeps track. Florida State's 6.8 yards per play in conference is tremendous, and it is the conference's only offense to break the 6.5 yards-per-play barrier in more than a half decade

Click to enlarge.
It is even more impressive when you consider that Florida State had to play a quarter of their conference season with a backup freshman quarterback after losing Christian Ponder to injury for the year. It has also been without its leading receiver, Richard Goodman, for a quarter of the conference season. And it lost its starting tight end Caz Piurowski for the final half of the conference season. Down 3 starters and still the Florida State offense dominates,

Left with un-coached scrubs from the Jeff Bowden era (represented by the black line for death), Fisher has transformed the offense into an attack that can be compared to any attack in the country. Florida State starts 1 senior, 2 juniors, 7 sophomores, and 2 freshmen. There are no 5-star recruits in the starting lineup, and only 2 of the starting 11 were rated as 4-stars. Fisher is out-scheming opponents and has his young offense executing with the maturity of a much older offense. It had been more than a half decade since Florida State had the conference's best offense, but obliterating the previous conference record with this young group should give Florida State fans confidence that their head coach in waiting (HCIW) can really coach. And you can't help but wonder whether next year's group can reach the untouchable mark of 7 yards per snap of the ball. 6.8 yards per snap of the ball against conference competition. Amazing.

And its even more amazing when you remember that Florida State did not get the advantage of facing the ACC's worst defense since ACC expansion. Why not? Because quite ironically, that defense also belongs to the Seminoles.

That is one painful chart. FSU's defense is not only the worst since ACC expansion, it is 10% worse than any ACC defense since 2004 (we do not have records of conference, only statistics from before 2004). This unit is worse than the defenses Duke fielded in 2004 or 2005 or 2006. And this defense posted that embarrassing mark without the "help" of facing the conference's best offense. But it often allowed lesser opponents to post their best day, and in fact every offense the Seminoles defense went up against managed their best or second-best offensive performance of the season. And to think, Florida State fans believed the coaches when they denied that closing practices was due to defensive embarrassment. After this season, it seems those reports of 400-yard quarters during the Fall mini-scrimmages were accurate.

But much like the offense trended down until FSU could have no more, this defense has been in a slow tailspin since the early part of the decade. Each small step forward (2006 & 2008) was met with gigantic leaps back (2007 and this season). And those leaps corresponded with head coach Bobby Bowden's failure to replace competent coaches (like Kevin Steele and Jim Gladden) with reasonably competent coaches, instead allowing running jokes like Chuck Amato and Jody Allen to run this once proud unit into the ground.

This has to be some sort of record. Have you ever seen a team have the conference's best offense and worst defense? Perhaps. Have you ever seen the best offense and worst defense of more than a half-decade come from the same school, in the same season? Let us know.

Maryland-Florida State Preview

Ben Broman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:56:35 -0000

Lots of stuff happened this week: Maryland got a commitment from Ashton Pankey, lost one from Tobias Harris, and learned Dino Gregory's status. Actually, so much happened that it's easy to forget there's a football game tomorrow.

There is one, and it's against a team everyone loves to hate: Florida State. The Seminoles, actually, have some strange similarities to Maryland.

Both have coaches in waiting. Both have HCs formerly extremely successful that are falling back to earth. Both have defenses in the bottom 40 in the nation. Both have QBs making their second start due to the injury of a previously entrenched veteran.

Of course, there are some very important differences, too. FSU's QB is former Maryland target E.J. Manuel, a five-star recruit from Virginia Beach. Maryland's QB is Jamarr Robinson, a two star from North Carolina. FSU's offense is in the top 20; Maryland's is in the bottom 20. Most importantly, the Noles are playing for a bowl bid, sitting at 5-5 on the year.

With the motivation for both teams - for Maryland, all but guarantee that F$U misses a bowl; for FSU, making a bowl - out of the way, the actual matchup on the field isn't exactly favorable.

While E.J. Manuel is no Christian Ponder, he might have more raw talent than Ponder, and looked pretty decent in his starting debut against Wake Forest - 15-20, 220 yards, a TD and an INT. Maryland probably won't be able to count on flustering and taking advantage of the redshirt freshman, but they can take solace in the fact that he's not as good at running Florida State's offense as Ponder is.

And that's a very good thing. Florida State has the country's 19th best offense, checking in at 13th through the air. They turned more to the ground attack against Wake Forest last week with the absence of Ponder, but that didn't exactly fail - they picked up 217 yards on 43 carries for a 5 ypc average. I wouldn't expect them to vary too far from that formula, but I would be surprised if they didn't let Manuel open it up a bit more against Maryland's mostly pathetic secondary.

Their top running back is Jermaine Thomas, a well-rounded back with a penchant for breaking tackles who's rounded up more than 5 yards a carry. Manuel is also a threat on the ground; while not as fast as Robinson is for Maryland, he's got quick feet.

Maryland's best hope here is to prevent Thomas from busting big runs, wait for Manuel to throw, and force him to make mistakes. Just because he didn't make them against Wake doesn't mean he isn't capable of making them. It'll be a tough task for this defense, but that's their best shot at staying close.

Not all hope is lost, though - FSU's defense is terrible, and literally worse than Maryland's. They're 109th in total defense, 105th in rush defense, and 96th in scoring defense. Maryland will have to put up points, but they just might be capable of it.

Sadly, FSU's one big strength, if it can be called that, is in their secondary, which houses Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the country. He'll match up with Torrey Smith, and probably be able to neutralize him. After that, they're much weaker in the back four, so hopefully Maryland can utilize their WR depth when passing the ball, going five wide often to exploit FSU's lack of depth in the secondary.

Where they're really weak is against the run, particularly on the line. That'll be a nice break for the Terps' much maligned OL, which could use an equal opponent. Similarly to the VT game, putting up rushing yards will be a main key to keeping close. FSU's just much worse at rush defense.

Luckily, Maryland gets Da'Rel Scott back this week, so they'll have a full stable of backs to throw at one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Jamarr Robinson should also be able to make a dent. The folks over at Tomahawk Nation often complain about their overpursuing defense - throw in slippery conditions, and that should be a feast for guys like Robinson and Caleb Porzel, assuming the latter can stay on his feet.

As always, Maryland will need a big performance from their special teams (and probably some points from the defense) if they want to pull out a win. Maryland will definitely be able to score on FSU's defense, but not nearly at the rate that the Noles should be able to score on Maryland's. I'm calling a 38-24 loss.

In Their Own Words: Florida State Football Talks Win Over Wake

FSUncensored — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:30:24 -0000

by Chuck Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's E.J. Manuel (3) scrambles for a long gain against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Florida State won, 41-28. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

View full size photo »

TV Note: Florida State plays Maryland this weekend. It will be a Noon game and shown on Raycom.

After the big win and RsFr. QB E.J. Manuel got his first big win, Fisher was very pleased with the whole performance. He said it was about as good as he could have hoped for. Everyone did the job that they were asked. He reluctantly complimented TY Jones, but then managed to insinuate that he was still pissed at Jones for not running the 3rd and 1 play correctly. Honestly, any back could have made the two nice runs Jones made. The offensive line blew those holes wide open. Then it was back to his usual coach-speak, talking about how the team all played within themselves and only controlled what they can control. He pointed out that the 'Noles had only 3 upperclassmen on offense. 1 Senior, 2 Juniors, 7 Sophomores, and 1 Freshman. And that's encouraging. (This says a lot about his ability to evaluate and develop talent and coach). Says Manuel has great instincts. Seems to be more nervous in drills than he is in a game. Fisher says he can coach 80% but there's a 20% feel aspect that hes to come from somewhere else and EJ has it. Fisher said he got on him a few times to see how he responded and thought he responded well. Of the 20 balls he threw, 3 were dropped. He completed 15. On the play-action, he does it very well. He's a natural, he's a very long guy, long arms and big hands, like Manning, and he extends the ball and it's a great natural fake. He said some other stuff as well, but that's all my buddy could remember.

As for Manuel himself, Andrew Carter caught up with him:

How were you able to stay so calm in the game?

Our practices are so high wire and Coach Fisher puts so much pressure on us in practice to perform, the game is really easy. It becomes second nature. Today was really a glorified practice.

Were you nervous?

When you're warming up I think everybody's nervous. They'd be lying if they said they weren't. The o-line they took care of me, the running backs did a good job, and the receivers did their job and the tight ends, and the defense took a lot of pressure off us.

Was there anything different about the offense with you starting?

The nakeds (bootlegs). I'm pretty good with my feet. I felt that's what Christian would have done, too. We saw it was open so we had to execute. We're a machine. That one piece got hurt but we're going to try to mend that up and keep moving as an offense

The rest is at that link.

Carter also caught up with injured quarterback Christian Ponder:

How was he able to stay so poised?

He has such high expectations for himself. We go out in practice and he prepares himself really well. That's the biggest thing. He knew what he was going to do, the preparation helped with his confidence.

His first pass was dropped, too (by Beau Reliford).

I know. That would have been a big one. If I were him I'd go slap Beau right there.

And Corey Clark has a nice article about getting Wake off FSU's back.

"I knew I could do it," Manuel said. "It's not even about me, though. I feel like the offense really helped me out and took a lot of pressure off of me. I didn't feel any pressure. The O-line protected me very well today."

"I thought their (offensive) line played really, really well," Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe said. "They just did a nice job. They had a good game plan and their kids executed it. I was very impressed."

Also, please keep Democrat writer Steve Ellis in your prayers. Steve suffered a heart attack and is still in the hospital. He's covered the 'Noles for years and I met him this year during media day. He's a nice guy and I certainly have him in my prayers.

Inside, check out the animated drive chart and some other articles!

Here's a nice writeup from member PBD:

Green. It was very interesting to watch our coaches, especially on defense. It seems pretty clear to me that CTC is in charge of the defense. Mickey spent a lot of time watching the offense play while CTC talked to the defense. Mickey also played a more hands off role when the defense was on the field. He got on them a couple of times, but overall didn't seem to be involved in the overall execution of the game. He seemed to be more like a position coach than DC. Offensively, it's the Trickett and Jimbo show. If any of the other coaches are doing any coaching during the game, I didn't see it.

Okay, I have to go back to the defense. I could make a list of the things that they don't do at all, or that they had a major fail at during the game, but the thing that comes to mind first and foremost is that they don't make good decisions. I honsetly don't know if this is on the coaches or the players, but we many mistakes on defense. We had guys over-running their zone when we were in zone coverage. For example, Skinner rolled out and we rolle the zone to the side of the field, and rolled right out of bounds rather than tracking with the receivers in the zones...it was sad. We had guys making terrible decisions on getting to the ball carrier, almost like to avoid them. Mangum was exceptional at this...did it multiple times, including on the 20-ish yard TD run (far endzone, couldn't see where the ball was very well). Looked like the LB was being blocked and couldn't shed the block, and Mangum cut inside when Adams cut it outside. Almost looked like a dodge to me.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Jimbo Fisher Gets Freshman QB EJ Manuel Ready as 'Noles Stomp Wake Forest 41-28

FSUncensored — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:24:09 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Freshman QB E.J. Manuel did everything asked of him in leading the Seminoles to a 41-28 win. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon, File)

Browse more photos »

Not many expected much from Florida State without their all-star quarterback Christian Ponder as the 'Noles rode into Wake Forest to face the Deacons on senior day. But the 'Noles offense didn't skip a beat. Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher got redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel ready to go. Fisher gave the freshman safe throws and some designed runs to ease him into the game. Manuel played well and didn't try to do too much. Importantly, he didn't have any bone-headed fumbles or dumb throws into the flat. His play-fakes were exceptional as Fisher called bootleg after bootleg. Wake's defense bought the fake repeatedly, especially in the first half, and Manuel completed multiple safe throws. He got the ball to his playmakers in spacem and they made plays. It's not an official stat, but FSU's wideouts had a ton of yards after the catch as Manuel went 15-20 for 221 yards with 1 TD and 1 Interception.

And those play-fakes were largely effective because the 'Nole's sensational running game was dominant. The 'Nole's excellent offensive line paved the way for 226 yards on 40 carries, an average of 5.7 yards per carry. FSU milked the clock when they had the ball and were excellent on 3rd down because they rarely put themselves in 3rd-and-long situations. Sophomore running back Jermaine Thomas had 148 yards on 25 carries, a 5.9 average per rush. He scored one touchdown and did not fumble.

Florida State's offense put up 439 yards on 61 plays, an exceptional average of 7.2 per play. That mark was 10% better than anyone had put on Wake Forest. Florida State also became the first team to score 40 points on the Deacons. And those numbers are even a bit misleading, as Florida State was averaging 8.3 yards-per-snap of the ball midway through the 3rd quarter, a truly exceptional mark.

And for the first time this season, Florida State's defense helped out the offense. It was well publicized that the Seminole defense might have been the worst in the country. Going into this contest, they had allowed every opponent to post their season high in Points, Yards, or Yards-per-play:

But the defense forced two turnovers, and Wake did not obliterate their previous season highs. The Deacons 6.6 yards per play was close to their season best, but when an offense is rocking like FSU's, the defense just needs to avoid being horrible. Wake managed 454 yards on 69 plays, for 28 points. And with this year's unit, that is a win.

Florida State's special teams also pitched in in a big way. Freshman Greg Reid took a punt return back for a score to make the game 31-7, and freshman kicker Dustin Hopkins had 4 touchbacks on kickoffs. FSU did not allow Wake Forest to start a drive outside of their own 40 yard line. Making big plays and being solid in all the other areas makes for a winning special teams combination.

Florida State went from being favored to not make a bowl to now being favored to make a bowl game. A win over Maryland will do it for the 'Noles.

The Preview: Florida State @ Wake Forest

FSUncensored — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:17:30 -0000

via www.collegesportspro.com

View full size photo »

Ok, here we go. Wake Forest has lost 4 straight ballgames. FSU just got worked by Clemson. Wake Forest just had to play Georgia Tech, and teams often struggle on defense after playing Tech, probably because of the cut blocks. Florida State just lost Christian Ponder. In his place will be Red-shirt Freshman E.J. Manuel. Both teams must have this ballgame if they want to make a bowl. Wake is staging a blackout for this game. This game is at noon. Yes, a noon blackout. You can't really make this stuff up. It's also senior day for Wake. If FSU loses this game, they will not go to a bowl, unless they pull an Appalachian-State level miracle.

Time: Noon, Eastern
TV: ESPNU
Line: Wake Forest -6
Weather: 55 degrees, light rain

Florida State Offense @ Wake Forest Defense

This is a truly interesting matchup. FSU has a very good offensive line and similarly talented wideouts. They have a good runner in Jermaine Thomas. And they had the best QB in the country in Christian Ponder. But now that QB is done. Their prized left tackle is banged up but will play, and WR Richard Goodman is still somewhat of a question mark.

Before we discuss FSU's offense any more, let's learn a bit about Wake's defense:

They're currently rated #35 in the country. So we're looking at a unit that it is decidedly worse than Miami, UNC, Clemson, and BC (side note here, how amazing is it that FSU's offense did what they did against the # 1, 3, 5, and 16 rated defenses?) But Wake's defense is definitely better than GTech, NC State, and BYU. Oh and its better than USF, who now looks just to have had one of their best games ever against FSU.

Here's Wake's Roster:

DE 55 Tristan Dorty 6-2 250 R-So.
NG 96 Boo Robinson 6-2 295 R-Sr.
DT 51 John Russell 6-4 280 R-Sr.
99 Michael Lockett 6-0 285 R-Sr.
DE 97 Kyle Wilber 6-5 230 R-So.
57 Gelo Orange 6-1 225 R-So.
SLB 26 Jonathan Jones 6-3 240 R-Sr.
MLB 52 Dominique Midgett 6-2 245 R-Sr.
WLB 46 Matt Woodlief 5-11 255 R-Jr.
CB 17 Brandon Ghee 6-0 190 R-Sr.
FS 4 Josh Bush 5-11 195 R-So.
SS 5 Cyhl Quarles 6-3 205 R-So.
CB 6 Kenny Okoro 6-0 190 R-Fr.

You might notice that one of their defensive ends weighs only 230lbs. That's tiny, and as I watched Wake on the games I found, they play their weakside defensive end in a stand-up position. Wake is essentially running a 3-4 defense more often than ever before. It will be very important for FSU to accurately declare the Mike linebacker for protection purposes.

As for this defense, the two defensive tackles are very good. Corner Brandon Ghee is also pretty good. Martin Rickman of BloggerSoDear.com, pointed out that Okoro is also good at the other corner spot, even for a redshirt freshman. Orange is a very quick linebacker off the edge and sometimes puts his hand down as well.

As I said, they are running a multiple-front defense this year and have run a decent bit of zone. I expect them to run all zone against E.J. Manuel. Why?

First, Manuel has good wheels. By running a zone, it will allow Wake to keep 11 eyes on Manuel should he elect to run. Additionally, running a zone means Wake doesn't need to devote a spy to Manuel. Additionally, they probably cannot stick with FSU's wideouts in man coverage, and Manuel has a cannon and can beat them deep if they go solo. Finally, they are going to make Maneul read zone coverage and deliver the ball accurately into the holes of the zone. That's where Manuel could have trouble. FSU doesn't run anything resembling a quality zone and I guarantee you the scout team doesn't run one well either. Wake knows this, and they are betting (correctly) that E.J. doesn't have the rapport with his wideouts that Ponder had. That's expected, as Ponder worked with these guys all the time.

Running the ball here will be huge. I expect FSU to run the ball from the gun and have some success. Remember I said Wake's defensive tackles are excellent. So FSU must try to get a draw there and win on the edge. FSU should be able to consistently block Wake's defensive ends and outside linebackers. Now, with Datko being hurt, that could be easier said than done, but if he's ineffective, I'd expect coach Trickett to insert someone else. The other reason FSU needs to stick with the run, outside of protecting their young quarterback, is to protect their awful defense. We saw Fisher do this last year when the offense really couldn't throw very well and instead they ate clock like crazy (remember NC State last year?).

I expect the offense to have some success, but Wake does play good but not great defense. We'll use the typical 67 play pace (about the average of how many plays a team gets). I'll go with 37 running plays for 167 yards (4.5 per carry), and 30 passing plays (including sacks) for 218 yards. That's 385 yards on 67 plays, or 5.7 yards per play. You might think that isn't very good, but consider that it is actually better than what Miami, Navy, Maryland, NC State, or BC managed. I think that adds up to 28 points, but points are a lot harder to predict than offensive performance, which is measured by yards per play. Inside, we'll look at the other side of the ball and give a final prediction.

Florida State's Defense @ Wake Forest's Offense

How good is Wake's offense? Let's go to the chart:

Ok, so their offense is 26th in the country, and they have been improving. They aren't as good as GTech, Miami, NC State, or BYU, but they are definitely better than BC, UNC, or USF. And FSU is facing them on the road.

Here's a chart I put together, compare what Wake did against similar opponents of FSU's schedule:

You might need to click it to enlarge. For reference, Clemson went for 4.9 per play against Miami, and Wake put up 6.5 per play. That's a huge difference when you extrapolate it over a whole game.

And schematically, Wake matches up tremendously with FSU. Their offense is made to take advantage of over-aggressive undisciplined defenses. In fact, this year they seem to be running a lot of spread-option type stuff. That will frustrate FSU. Additionally, they throw a ton of underneath routes and pick routes and dump-offs to the backs. Their O-Line is average, and their running game isn't tremendous. But senior QB Riley Skinner is pretty good and he knows how to beat this FSU defense. This is just a really poor match-up for FSU's defense. So I expect Wake to get about 65 plays. Of those, they'll have about 30 runs for 190 yards (6.3 per run) and 35 passes for 315 yards (including sacks, that's 9 yards per pass play). That's 505 yards of offense for Wake Forest on only 65 plays, which is 7.8 yards per play. Always tough to tell, but that comes out to 42 points in my book.

Final Prediction: Wake Forest 42, FSU 28. Chance of winning: 30%

Q&A with Tomahawk Nation

MRickman84 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:00:48 -0000

Let me start this off by saying, if you haven't been to Tomahawk Nation before, you're really missing out. So go there now. They have more in-depth coverage than just about any other college blog. And we were lucky enough to get the chance to do a Q&A with them for the upcoming Wake Forest-Florida State game on Saturday. You'll find our questions after the jump.

1.) What are your realistic expectations for E.J. Manuel this week?

Well first off, he's not going to do what Christian Ponder did. But E.J. is a 6'6" 228lb Rs.Fr. with a rocket arm and good mobility. And he's smart and Fisher's prized recruit. I expect Manuel to operate the offense well, but not at the level Ponder operated it. My guess is that we will eventually get down and Manuel will force a ball or two that he shouldn't throw and it'll get picked. If he throws 25 balls, I think he'll go 15-25 for 195 with 2 td's and 2 int's.

2.) Put yourself in Manuel's shoes. What do you need to do to put yourself in a position to win the football game?

Unfortunately, because our defense is 94th in the country, I need to emulate Vince Young against USC. I need to find a way, as a redshirt freshman, to score 6 touchdowns. I have to trust in Fisher to set me up, because hey, Ponder did it and the offense was great. I can't let the pressure of the 1st start or the terrible defense get to me.

3.) Bobby Bowden has been hammering home this week just how unlucky both Wake and Florida State have been. I'm down on the "bad luck" excuse myself, but what do you think?

If a team loses a bunch of really close ballgames, they are unlucky. It's pretty much proven that you should win about half of your games decided by a single score. Wake is 2-5 in those ballgames. 3-4 or 4-3 is probably a better gauge on their true ability as a team. FSU is 3-3 in such games, so we have not been unlucky. However, Wake (9) and FSU (6) have both played top 10 schedules, so their record probably doesn't reflect their true talent. What if we had both pulled a PSU and scheduled 4 cupcakes, you'd be 6-4 and we'd be 6-3. Scheduling tough in this day and age doesn't make any sense and with any luck, our AD will be fired for scheduling stupid stuff like next year at Oklahoma. So yeah, schedule strength means we're both underrated.

4.) The defense is giving up 30.9 points per game. What's the explanation? How do you plan on stopping Wake Forest's passing attack?

Bam. http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/11/2/1110686/florida-states-defense-the-cure That's where I basically explained it in a few thousand words. Basically, it's elite recruits mixed with a lame duck DC who hasn't coached since his son killed himself, a LB coach hellbent on sabotaging Jimbo Fisher, and a DE coach who never played defense and never coached defense until Bowden hired him. Oh yeah, and every single team has set their season high in points, yards, or yards per play against the 'Noles. Here it is in chart form http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/206246/FSU_Defense_Suck_Table_11.08.JPG

5.) We've been asking this question around lately, but who are the players we don't know but we should?

The offense uses about 5 quality wideouts, but you probably already know them. How about Taiwan Easterling, a wideout who has done a great job recovering from his Achilles injury he suffered in the off-season.

6.) Does this Florida State team deserve to make a bowl game?

The team definitely deserves it. But because of some of the dumbass stuff the university did with the scheduling and letting a senile and delusional old man run the program into the ground says otherwise. Fisher and the offensive staff deserve to coach this team in a bowl, but I can't ignore the other stuff, so no. And I am rooting for FSU not to make a bowl game.

7.) It's prediction time. How do you see the game playing out and what will be the final score?

I'll go 35-27 [Wake]. Our defense is on that Stanford/ Rice level. And our offense can't overcome that this time.

Deacon Dump 11/12: Signing day notes, FSU previews

MRickman84 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:00:38 -0000

I am very happy with the amount of links we've been able to collect the last few days. It always makes me a bit giddy to see Wake in the news this much. I'll be heading down to The Dash on Friday, but before then, keep an eye out for our Q&A with Tomahawk Nation, as well as a new feature we are hoping to try out this week. Enjoy!

Veterans Day: Grobe Recounts Trip to Middle East - WAKE FOREST OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
"The trip itself was pretty demanding, we did a lot of travel," said Grobe upon his return. "We flew military aircraft everywhere we went. It was good for us because we got to experience what our service men and women do in their traveling. We flew on KC-135s, we flew on C-17s, C-130s. We had an opportunity to have a lot of different experiences. We went to lots of bases, a lot of different hospitals where we visited wounded soldiers. It gave us the chance to feel really good about our men and women in service, the sacrifice that they're making.

Top 25 college basketball recruiting classes - MaxPreps News
9. Wake Forest Top 100: No. 41 J.T. Terrell (6-2, 175, G), No. 74 Carson Desrosiers (6-9, 210, F), No. 76 Tony Chennault (6-2, 175, G) Supporting Cast: Travis McKie (6-6, 180, W), Melvin Tabb (6-8, 210, F) Analysis: Dino Gaudio has a bit of everything with this group.

Hoopinion: David Thorpe on Jeff Teague
In a loaded point guard class, there might be not be a quicker and more dynamic driver than Teague. But, and this is a big but, he needs to learn how to read where the help action is coming from before he starts his drive. A recent game against the Nuggets taught him that lesson, as he finished 1-for-9 with most of his misses coming on shots in the paint after strong dribble-drives. A floater, teardrop or simple pull-up jumper would serve Teague well here, because he's next to impossible to stay in front of.

My Take on Wake - No Experiments in Mr. Grobe’s Class | JournalNow.com
"I thought I’d died and gone to heaven when I was coaching high school football and I was making a little less than $9,000 a year as a head coach and an Earth Science teacher that had five Earth Science classes a day,‘’ Grobe said. "I thought I’d hit the lottery.‘’

Demon Deacons tire of same old results | tire, results, align - ACC Football - Burlington Times News
"Our guys are beyond pats on the back," coach Jim Grobe said. "Having people pat you on the back for playing good teams close doesn’t cut it much any more."

Bad luck binds both FSU and Wake Forest this season. -- OrlandoSentinel.com
"They're like us in a lot of ways," FSU Coach Bobby Bowden said on Wednesday. "Could have won every game they've played. They're the same way."

Resiliency Needed: Injuries have not been able to keep Griffin off the field
Griffin, a senior offensive lineman from Jacksonville, will play his 51st college game in Saturday's pivotal showdown with Florida State on Seniors' Day at BB&T Field. He'll share the distinction of veterans' veteran with defensive tackle Boo Robinson and linebacker Dominique Midgett, both of whom will also be playing in their 51st game. Nobody in the 107 seasons football has been played at Wake Forest has played in more. The record of 51 is currently held by four seniors from last season -- Aaron Curry, Alphonso Smith, Stanley Arnoux and Chip Vaughn -- all of whom were drafted in the first four rounds of last June's NFL Draft.

Gainesville's Carnes signs with Wake | AccessNorthGa
Gainesville High girls basketball star Jaymee Carnes realized a lifelong dream on Wednesday when she signed a letter of intent to play for Wake Forest. The senior wing/post picked the Demon Deacons over Virginia Tech.

Will Clemson Have a Letdown? That and Other ACC Predictions for Nov. 14 | Bleacher Report
The numbers tell me FSU will make this game very close, but those stats are based off a Ponder led offense. I will take Wake to win and cover the five points.

Florida State (4-5) at Wake Forest (4-6) - FSU - MiamiHerald.com
Wake's losing skid will come to an end this weekend. Expect a big effort from Skinner, who will make the type of decisions expected from a senior quarterback. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Wake Forest 31, Florida State 23

Bracketology - ESPN
It is never too early for March Madness

John Marshall's Travis McKie is officially a Demon Deacon (Great video highlights)
"You're going to see a big change in me this year." What Wake Forest supporters want to know is what they will get in the 2010-11 season and beyond. "I'm going to try to come in and contribute in any way I can to help the team get better," McKie said. "Hopefully get to that Final Four, hopefully win a national championship."

Wake Forest basketball capsule : News-Record.com : Greensboro & the Triad's most trusted source for local news and analysis
Projection: The Demon Deacons lost their two leading scorers, underclassmen James Johnson and Jeff Teague, to the NBA draft. And yet, a lot of talent remains with a pretty darn good blend of experience and youth. If a 3-point shooter emerges to complement the big men, and Wake commits to playing hard on defense, the Deacs could win 20-plus regular-season games, contend for the ACC title and have a legitimate shot at a Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight run in March.

State still looking for its point guard
Georgia State, which finished 12-20 last season, has some faces that will be familiar to ACC fans. Senior guard Shamaine "Joe" Dukes is a Wake Forest transfer who led the Panthers in scoring at 12.8 points and 4.3 assists a game last season.

Resiliency Needed
"It tells you how tough the guy is," Grobe said. "He's tough as a pine knot. He's played through a lot of injuries. His knee has really been bothering him for a couple of years now. And he just plays through it. "When he was younger I think he used to worry about it. As he's gotten older he doesn't even think about it. He knows after every game he's going to be beat up pretty good and he just accepts it. He keeps coming back every Monday with his lunch pall ready to go to work. "He's been special. We're going to really miss that guy."

Deacons blank Tigers in ACC soccer tourney opener
Freshman Andy Lubahn scored two goals to help Wake Forest defeat Clemson 3-0 yesterday in a quarterfinal game of the ACC soccer tournament at Cary's WakeMed Soccer Park.

STRAINING: Deacs try to stay above water
"Our backs keep getting put closer and closer against the wall," Skinner said. "Now, our backs are literally touching the wall. Surprisingly enough, in the last couple of years we have lost some tough games, and I think our team's really had a hard time bouncing back sometimes. It sounds odd to say we've bounced back really well when we've lost the last four games, but we really have in terms of the way we've practiced, the way we've prepared and the way we've come out and played on Saturday."

Wake defense proves problematic for FSU QBs | Tallahassee Democrat
"They do a lot of lateral movement," he said. "Instead of stunting one gap, they might stunt two gaps. … They really play it as a team. Those linebackers know where to fill. They are hard to fool." That approach, Fisher said, puts a lot of pressure on opposing offenses to show patience and keep attacking the field. "They make you make plays," Fisher said. "And they don’t give up the big play. When you do pop one, they are usually in zone coverage and they converge and do a good job making the tackle. They make you execute. When you get a chance to hit one, you have to make it count."

Wake Forest has owned Seminoles as of late -- OrlandoSentinel.com
"Very seldom do I see a defense that plays like they do," head coach Bobby Bowden said of Wake's three-man front. "It's not a drastic thing, but you better know what you're doing against them."

Orlando Sentinel - A Q-and-A with EJ Manuel: Part II by Andrew Carter
A continuation of the Q-and-A between Florida State quarterback EJ Manuel and members of the media. You read the first part yesterday.Here’s the rest:

Hawks still seeking some consistency - Sports - The Olympian - Olympia, Washington
Rookie Aaron Curry has been impressive at times, making explosive plays, but he’s also shown some growing pains. He has 44 tackles, along with two sacks and two forced fumbles.

Top NFL Rookies From WhatIfSports.com
#7. Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle Seahawks Curry has been a monster and a huge weapon for a Seahawks defense that has been banged up all year. He already has two sacks and two forced fumbles. Playing along side Lofa Tatupa helped for a while, but now with Tatupa out and Seattle struggling, Curry will have even more pressure on him the second half of the year. Projected Final Stats: 86 total tackles, 4 sacks

Fox Sports > goodmanonfox > ACC HARD TO PREDICT; 10 THOUGHTS FROM WAKE

Sophomore Aminu to carry the load for Deacs : News-Record.com : Greensboro & the Triad's most trusted source for local news and analysis
"We didn't go that far in the tournament," Aminu said. "Growing up, you always have dreams of going to the Final Four and maybe winning a national championship. So it really left a sour taste in my mouth when we got knocked out in the first round. Plus, it's important to my mom and dad that I get a degree. If you only stay one year, that makes it tough to come back and get your degree. So the more schooling I get, the better off I am."