SB Nation - Patrick Robinson

Maryland-Florida State Preview

Ben Broman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:56:35 -0000

Lots of stuff happened this week: Maryland got a commitment from Ashton Pankey, lost one from Tobias Harris, and learned Dino Gregory's status. Actually, so much happened that it's easy to forget there's a football game tomorrow.

There is one, and it's against a team everyone loves to hate: Florida State. The Seminoles, actually, have some strange similarities to Maryland.

Both have coaches in waiting. Both have HCs formerly extremely successful that are falling back to earth. Both have defenses in the bottom 40 in the nation. Both have QBs making their second start due to the injury of a previously entrenched veteran.

Of course, there are some very important differences, too. FSU's QB is former Maryland target E.J. Manuel, a five-star recruit from Virginia Beach. Maryland's QB is Jamarr Robinson, a two star from North Carolina. FSU's offense is in the top 20; Maryland's is in the bottom 20. Most importantly, the Noles are playing for a bowl bid, sitting at 5-5 on the year.

With the motivation for both teams - for Maryland, all but guarantee that F$U misses a bowl; for FSU, making a bowl - out of the way, the actual matchup on the field isn't exactly favorable.

While E.J. Manuel is no Christian Ponder, he might have more raw talent than Ponder, and looked pretty decent in his starting debut against Wake Forest - 15-20, 220 yards, a TD and an INT. Maryland probably won't be able to count on flustering and taking advantage of the redshirt freshman, but they can take solace in the fact that he's not as good at running Florida State's offense as Ponder is.

And that's a very good thing. Florida State has the country's 19th best offense, checking in at 13th through the air. They turned more to the ground attack against Wake Forest last week with the absence of Ponder, but that didn't exactly fail - they picked up 217 yards on 43 carries for a 5 ypc average. I wouldn't expect them to vary too far from that formula, but I would be surprised if they didn't let Manuel open it up a bit more against Maryland's mostly pathetic secondary.

Their top running back is Jermaine Thomas, a well-rounded back with a penchant for breaking tackles who's rounded up more than 5 yards a carry. Manuel is also a threat on the ground; while not as fast as Robinson is for Maryland, he's got quick feet.

Maryland's best hope here is to prevent Thomas from busting big runs, wait for Manuel to throw, and force him to make mistakes. Just because he didn't make them against Wake doesn't mean he isn't capable of making them. It'll be a tough task for this defense, but that's their best shot at staying close.

Not all hope is lost, though - FSU's defense is terrible, and literally worse than Maryland's. They're 109th in total defense, 105th in rush defense, and 96th in scoring defense. Maryland will have to put up points, but they just might be capable of it.

Sadly, FSU's one big strength, if it can be called that, is in their secondary, which houses Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the country. He'll match up with Torrey Smith, and probably be able to neutralize him. After that, they're much weaker in the back four, so hopefully Maryland can utilize their WR depth when passing the ball, going five wide often to exploit FSU's lack of depth in the secondary.

Where they're really weak is against the run, particularly on the line. That'll be a nice break for the Terps' much maligned OL, which could use an equal opponent. Similarly to the VT game, putting up rushing yards will be a main key to keeping close. FSU's just much worse at rush defense.

Luckily, Maryland gets Da'Rel Scott back this week, so they'll have a full stable of backs to throw at one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Jamarr Robinson should also be able to make a dent. The folks over at Tomahawk Nation often complain about their overpursuing defense - throw in slippery conditions, and that should be a feast for guys like Robinson and Caleb Porzel, assuming the latter can stay on his feet.

As always, Maryland will need a big performance from their special teams (and probably some points from the defense) if they want to pull out a win. Maryland will definitely be able to score on FSU's defense, but not nearly at the rate that the Noles should be able to score on Maryland's. I'm calling a 38-24 loss.

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

View full size photo »

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Sara D. Davis - AP

Browse more photos »

Florida State and North Carolina might be having somewhat disappointing seasons, but there will be plenty of talent on display.

That talent will particularly be found on the defensive side of the ball.

North Carolina has one of the better defensive duos in the nation with junior Marvin Austin and senior Cam Thomas. Austin is somewhat similar to Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, just a notch below him in every category.

Thomas has nose tackle size and could be a rotational defensive tackle. He might be only a two-down player at the next level, but is serviceable.

Arguably the Tar Heels' most talented defensive player is junior inside linebacker Quan Sturdivant. He's big, fast and already has 7.5 tackles for loss this season.

On the outside, junior Bruce Carter is a very good pass rush. His numbers are down this season because teams have been sending an extra blocker at him or chipping him.

Almost every North Carolina defender has great size and athleticism. Junior free safety Deunta Williams is no exception. He gets after the ball aggressively and supports the run nicely.

And he might not be draft eligible until 2011, but end Robert Quinn is a terror. He has seven sacks this season and 14.5 tackles for loss. He might have the makings of a future top 10 pick.

Florida State's top players are pretty widely known by now. Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson was highly touted by Mel Kiper Jr. at the start of the season, but he hasn't really lived up to the hype. His awareness is poor, but he has good quickness and agility.

Senior outside linebacker Dekoda Watson is a solid cover-2 candidate, but he might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams player.

Junior Rodney Hudson might be the best guard in the nation. He's athletic for an interior linemen and really understands leverage.

Quietly, Florida State junior quarterback Christian Ponder has emerged as a solid signal caller. None of his measurables will blow people away, but he's having a tremendous season. He's completing 68 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns to just one interception.

With all the talented junior quarterbacks Ponder gets overlooked. Take note tonight at 8 p.m. on ESPN. He could be a sleeper for next season.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Preview, part Deux

FSUncensored — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Butch Davis- "Thank God I get to play the most undisciplined and worst coached defense in the country!" (AP Photo/Gregory Smith, File)

Browse more photos »

First, check out yesterday's part 1. Then read this.

Kickoff is 8pm Eastern. ESPN. Weather looks nice, lower 70's, no rain.

We will live-blog the game like we always do! Be here at 7:30 Eastern to get in on the action.

Inside:

Depth Charts
In-Depth Statistical Breakdown
Personnel Review
A conceptual look at UNC's attack
What can FSU do to stop UNC?
Prediction

Quarterback
13 - T.J. Yates (6-3, 220, Jr.)
Fullback
4 - Bobby Rome (5-11, 245, Sr.) OR
6 - Anthony Elzy (5-10, 215, Jr.) OR
45 - Devon Ramsey (6-2, 245, So.)
Tailback
20 - Shaun Draughn (6-0, 210, Jr.)
32 - Ryan Houston (6-2, 245, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
8 - Greg Little (6-3, 215, Jr.)
87 - Jheranie Boyd (6-2, 185, Fr.)
Wide Receiver
88 - Erik Highsmith (6-3, 175, Fr.)
83 - Dwight Jones (6-4, 220, So.)
3 - Joshua Adams (6-4, 200, Fr.) (questionable)
Left Tackle
72 - Kyle Jolly (6-6, 310, Sr.)
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.)
Left Guard
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.) OR
64 - Jonathan Cooper (6-3, 295, Fr.*) (questionable, but will start if healthy)
Center
65 - Cam Holland (6-2, 300, So.) Banged up last game
75 - Tavares Brown (6-0, 310, Sr.)
Right Guard
70 - Alan Pelc (6-6, 325, Jr.)
Right Tackle
66 - Mike Ingersoll (6-5, 300, Jr.)
Tight End
80 - Ed Barham (6-3, 265, Jr.) OR
17 - Zack Pianalto (6-4, 255, Jr.) MAYBE
33 - Christian Wilson (6-3, 235, So.)

Let's start with last season:

Actually, let's not. The Heel's offense was good, definitely one of the 35 best in the country. They lost basically everyone. This year?

Here's their performance against 1A competition to date:

UNC Offensive Performance
Opponent	at UCONN	ECU	Gtech	UVA
Opponent Defenisve Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	54th	98th	60th	27th
Plays	67	63	44	59
Yards Per Play	4.1	6.9	3.5	2.9
Rushes	29	37	17	21
Yards/ Rush	2.4	4	1.4	2.3
Passing Plays	38	26	27	38
Yards/ Pass Play	5.4	11	5.9	3.3
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	27-9 (33%)-11	35-11 (35%)- 11	16- 4 (25%)- 9	21-9-8
Standard 2nd Downs	5-10 (50%)	5-8 (63%)	3-5 (60%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 2nd Downs	3-14 (21%)	5-13 (38%)	2-9 (22%)	0-12 (0%)
Standard 3rd Downs	2-6 (33%)	4-5 (80%)	2-5 (40%)	2-5 (40%)
Passing 3rd Downs	4-10 (40%)	1-7 (14%)	1-10 (10%)	3-13 (23%)
Note:	Only 6 successes in 29 runs, horrible. 18 successes in 38 pass plays is much better		10 plays and 37 yards in garbage time Did have a bad snap for -20 Very sloppy, dropped passes and inaccurate.	1 Drive over 20 yards 6 of 10 1st down passes went for 5+ yards, very safe. 6 of 21 success rate rushing (terrible) 12 of 38 Success Passing

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

That's really bad. Know what else is bad? FSU's defense!

Opponent	Miami	at BYU	USF	at BC	Georgia Tech
Opponent Offensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22	6	94	61	2
Plays	74	53	60	57	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

Click to enlarge (works today)

Yes, you're reading that right. UNC's offense is the 99th best in the country. You could call it the 22nd worst! And not to be outdone, FSU's defense so far has been the 101th best! Yes, 101. To sum it up in one sentence, North Carolina's offense failed to move the ball at all against both good and bad defenses, while FSU's defense allows everyone to do whatever they wish.

Who does it for them?

At quarterback is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. As you can see from the chart above, he is an average player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and he did drop some weight in the off-season.

I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. I wrote that this summer, and so far this year against D1 competition, he has a 4-6 TD/ INT ratio.

They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game They've shown little of either so far.

He's not your ideal running threat, but against the most undisciplined, worst coached defense in the nation, look for him to be running with the ball.

Offensive Line

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

I think I nailed this. UNC still can't run the ball worth a damn. They have not stayed healthy. Center Lowell Dyer strained a muscle in his right shoulder in practice the week of the Connecticut game and has missed five straight games. He is
undergoing rehab with the hopes of returning before the season ends, but will not play against FSU. He's been replaced by Sophomore Cam Holland (6'2" 310). Redshirt freshman Guard Jonathan Cooper twisted his right ankle in his first career start vs. The Citadel and did not play the following week vs. Connecticut. He returned last week and will start against the 'Noles.

This is probably the worst offensive line FSU will have played to date (USF being the only challenger). They aren't great in pass protection nor run blocking. Luckily for them, they play the most undisciplined defense in the country.

If FSU gets them in 3rd and long, FSU should use the prowler. UVA had success with it:

Pass Catchers

Wrote this over summer:

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

For the most part, I nailed this. Little is the #1. They like to throw him short stuff and let him work with his legs. The #2, however, was a surprise. It's Freshman Erik Highsmith, a 6'3" 175' kid who has done a lot for them in a short period of time. Starting tight end Zack Pianalto dislocated his foot vs. Connecticut after scoring a touchdown and has missed four consecutive games. He returned to practice last week, and will play against FSU. His effectiveness, however, is yet to be determined.

UNC's wideouts run really poor routes. I did rip Yates for being inaccurate, but part of that needs to fall on the receivers for not being where they are supposed to be. Additionally, they drop balls. These guys are big, fast athletes, but as I predicted, they are inconsistent and really lack polish.

Backs

I wrote:

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Womble is out for the year, and Rome has been banged up, largely replaced by 6'0" 245 Devon Ramzey. This is pretty much accurate. Their backs don't scare me, but they aren't a bad group. As usual, the offensive line matters a lot more than the running backs.

Focus on Common Opponents

I want to take a minute to show the differences between the two teams. Both teams played Georgia Tech's defense.

Opponent: Georgia Tech	Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted): Georgia Tech has the #2 offense in the Country to date.
Defense	FSU's Defense	North Carolina Defense
Plays	63	77
Yards Per Play Allowed	8.5	5.3
Rushes	55	65
Yards/ Rush Allowed	7.4	5
Passing Plays	8	12
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	16.4	6.9

Yeah, FSU's defense is much worse. The 'Noles allowed 35% more yards per play than UNC did, and UNC was on the road while FSU was at home. I guess that's why the 'Nole's defense is 101st and the Tar Heel's is 10th. I actually believe FSU's defense is even worse than their 101st ranking (can't believe I am saying that).

Now I want to do something a different. Follow me here. FSU's defense ranks # 101. East Carolina's ranks #98. That's pretty comparable. USF's offense ranks # 94, and UNC's #99. That's pretty comparable. Let's look at what FSU's defense did against a bad offense and what UNC's bad offense did against a bad defense:

Team	FSU's Defense against	UNC's Offense Against
v.	USF (94th ranked Offense)	ECU (98th best defense)
Plays	60	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.2	6.9
Rushes	37	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	5	4
Passing Plays	23	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	8.2	11

Remember that USF runs a spread option- the best offense to run against FSU. UNC does not run that.
However, USF also played prevent offense for more than a quarter, so their performance was much better than their 6.2 showed.
ECU's defense is very similar to FSU's
I would expect UNC to get about 6.5 yards per play.

How do they do it?

Bunch & Motion & Stack & Tight - man beaters

UNC runs almost every play out of some sort of bunch, stack, or tight formation. What is that?

Click to enlarge.

The reason for this is pretty simple. UNC's wideouts do not run good routes. Ideally, teams would like to run man-coverage against them and blitz. When receivers are bunched up or stacked or in tight, and a team wants to play man-coverage against those wideouts, they will have to put two defenders in very close proximity to each other. That poses a substantial risk that those two defenders will collide or get tangled up when trying to cover. It also prevents the defense from playing press-man coverage (again, the goal being to help out the young receivers by allowing them a clean release off the line.

ECU played a ton of man and got burnt. I fully expect FSU to bang their heads against the wall and get burnt on this. The 'Nole's defense will look really stupid. Combine that with the problems they have defending the tight end, and you have the recipe for a truly horrid pass offense to look pretty good. Mickey Andrews needs to play some zone and he won't because he is stubborn.

As for the motion, UNC motions on every single play. It allows the offense to get a better idea of what the defense is doing based off how the defense reacts. UNC players have commented how simple FSU's defense is, and that tells me that they are confident they will figure out what FSU is doing based off the 'Nole's reaction to the pre-snap motion. I'll figure that they will have the 'Nole's simple hand signals down by the middle of the 1st quarter.

A Little Clemson

This offense reminds me of the Rob Spence attack Clemson ran in 2006 and 2007.

Self Inflicted Wounds

UNC really does a nice job stopping themselves. Lazy/ bad routes, bad throws, and lapses in protection (and run blocking) hurt this club, as have penalties. I don't figure them to take a lot of risks, but

Slow Starters

For whatever reason, UNC has gotten off to really slow starts in their 4 games against D1 competition.

UConn

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:34	UNC 23	3	2	Punt
10:59	3:23	UNC 20	9	37	Int
6:12	2:08	UNC 3	3	9	Punt
3:04	3:51	UNC 35	8	38	FG Miss

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
9:33	1:57	Conn 48	3	-9	Punt
4:48	1:19	UNC 38	3	-7	Punt


3rd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:31	3:07	UNC 27	6	15	Punt
8:29	2:56	UNC 1	5	15	Punt
3:33	1:19	UNC 21	3	5	Int

East Carolina

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:38	UNC 18	3	6	Punt
11:00	0:30	UNC 31	2	2	Fumble
7:00	2:16	UNC 40	6	60	TD
3:00	1:39	UNC 19	3	4	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:44	2:26	UNC 8	5	14	Punt
10:43	1:32	UNC 23	3	-13	Punt

Georgia Tech

Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:27	UNC 20	3	4	Punt
8:57	1:03	UNC 19	3	1	Punt
3:04	0:55	UNC 8	3	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:47	1:37	UNC 20	3	-2	Punt
10:39	2:18	UNC 31	5	1	Fumble

UVA

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:40	UNC 20	3	-4	Punt
12:17	1:30	UNC 20	3	3	Punt
9:27	2:09	UNC 44	4	14	Punt
4:46	3:00	UNC 13	6	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
12:00	1:20	UNC 25	3	8	Punt
6:50	2:49	UNC 28	6	18	Punt

It's very important for FSU to not allow UNC to get off to a fast start. This is a team lacking in confidence, and if the longer they go without grabbing a big lead, the tighter they will play. And this team will begin to press. I'd expect them to play conservative early, but if they get down late, expect Yates to chuck it up.

No dropback downfield passing game (only PA)

UNC has zero dropback passing game. There's not much to say about this expect that almost every time they drop back without moving the pocket or using play-action, they look really bad.

Moving The Pocket

UNC's passing game is almost entirely based on bootlegs, rollouts, etc. Yates loves to get far outside the pocket (with his OLine, you would as well) and set his feet before launching. FSU must to not let him set his feet on rollouts.

When they rollout or bootleg, they look to hit a lot of deep crossing routes. This works for them because the wideouts don't typically have to run a great route, it's more of a drift team.

Screen Game

When FSU checks to Cover-3 (after motion), they will run this:

Click to enlarge.

No Huddle

UNC has done a nice job running limited no huddle (hurrying up to the line when running back to back plays).

Cut their Splits and Blast Block the Power?

UNC's primary run play is the Power. Down, Down, Pull (kick-out) and go. The linemen all block down -- meaning they step away from where the play is going -- to crush the defensive linemen and get double-teams. The offense makes up for this by using the fullback to block the defensive end from the inside-out, and they block the linebacker on the play side by pulling the backside guard. Here's a great post on the play. I'd expect UNC to cut their splits to prevent penetration and run this play 20+ times tonight. FSU has struggled against this before.

They also do a lot of end-around motion off the power, occasionally giving it but more often than not just holding the edge player for a second.

FSU's injuries

FSU is really banged up and will be without Starters in bold. Key reserves in italics:

CB Dionte Allen (thumb),
LB Maurice Harris (neck)*,
TE Caz Piurowski (knee)*,
DT Budd Thacker (knee).

WR Richard Goodman (groin),
SS Korey Mangum (shoulder),
DT Justin Mincey (knee),
CB Patrick Robinson (ankle),
LB Dekoda Watson (groin/knee)
* - out for the season

Several of the backups are now walk-ons. That is what happens when you have 5 terrible defensive coaches who don't give a damn about recruiting in 2006 and 2007. You have no depth. This defensive coaching staff really is the worst in the country.

Prediction:

As I said yesterday, I expect FSU to get close to 6.2 yards per play against UNC's defense, which would be by far the most they have given up all year, by 25%. That's a win for the offense, and I think they get about 27 points. I think UNC's offense will get it together against FSU's trash defense. Allowing anything over 4.5 yards per play to one of the worst offenses I have seen in a long time would be ridiculous, but I see FSU allowing UNC to go for much more than that and allow 6.5 yards per play, which would be a complete and utter embarrassment. Special teams are a factor here and UNC's group is nothing to write home about, while FSU's return teams have been good (coverage is another story). I'll say UNC gets 28 points on a mixture of plays for loss and big plays to win 28-27 over a 'Nole's team that could have some serious infighting between an elite level offense and an embarrassment level defense.

Chance to win: 45%

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:46:41 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

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• A possible matchup tonight between Brandon LaFell of LSU and Joe Haden of Florida is the most intriguing one of the day. Haden can get out of position, something a heady receiver like LaFell can take advantage of. Haden is really good against the run, so he'll test LaFell's blocking ability. LaFell dominated this matchup last season.

This will also be a good game to see what offensive tackle Ciron Black (LSU) and Carlos Dunlap (Florida) are worth. Both have been having ordinary seasons, especially Dunlap. Black is a strong blocker so Dunlap will have to use his initial quickness more today.

In general, LSU's top prospects have been average this season. Running back Charles Scott finally broke a big run last week, but he's slow to the hole. End Rahim Alem has been able to get after the passer and defensive tackle Al Woods has been non-existant. Each could turn their draft fortunes around today.

• Another week and another chance for Mississippi's Jevan Snead to try and prove he's an elite talent. His struggles this year have been plenty noted, but things won't get any easier against Alabama tonight. Snead needs to rely less on his arm strength and use his brain more. Alabama will bring a lot of pressure and Snead's resolve will be tested.

Also in this game, watch for Rebels defensive end Greg Hardy to have a big game. Alabama's offensive tackles are just average so Hardy could have a big game.

• The Ohio State front four is impressive and filled with NFL-caliber players. Chief among them are ends Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson. Against the pass, particularly Gibson, they are terrors. Today against Wisconsin, they can show how good they are against the run. Sophomore John Clay is a bulldozer of a back who is hard to take down.

• Oklahoma State left tackle Russell Okung can display his dominance today when the Cowboys play Texas A&M. Von Miller has become one of the nation's top sack artists and he'll test Okung's quickness and ability to move his feet.

• Last week Iowa offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga showed few sigs of rust. However, that was against Arkansas State. Today against Michigan the junior might face all-conference end Brandon Graham. The senior can get low around the edge, which could give Bulaga problems.

• Against the duo rushing attack of Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma, Baylor inside linebacker Joe Pawelek will have his hands full today. This could be a showcase game for the senior sleeper. He has some athletic deficiencies but makes a lot of plays.

• This won't be a game where he can show his ability against the pass, but Florida State's Patrick Robinson is a player to watch today against Georgia Tech. He's considered a one-dimensional player but will get to show what he can do against the run. Robinson has looked good this season against the pass.

• Georgia defensive tackles Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins have been a big disappointment this season. Conversely, Tennessee's Montario Hardesty has been one of the biggest surprises this season. It could be a good matchup to watch this week.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Florida State Seminoles Preview

DA-2 — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 22:18:57 -0000

(FSUncesored's thoughts and words spoken through the phone.)

The preview will be much shorter this week because I'm on the road, and the Bowden coverage was the main coverage of the week. Last year Georgia Tech gashed the Noles for 31 pts and 400 yards in 3 Quarters. That's 8 yards/snap. The Noles never stopped Georgia Tech while their Quarterback was in the game. But then Florida State got two major breaks. First, Georgia Tech's quarterback sprained his ankle on a non-contact play. Second, Zebrie Sanders got away with a hold that would've made Hulk Hogan jealous. The refs didn't call it, Florida State avoided a safety and went on to score. Georgia Tech's backup quarterback produced two ugly turnovers which helped FSU get back in the ballgame. Then GT got their break as Marcus Simms' fumble on the go ahead score. The point here is that if you think FSU was unlucky, you're not being objective. Both teams had good and bad luck throughout the game.

This year Tech's offense is still good. While Clemson and Miami severely limited Tech's offense, Florida State does not have the personnel to copy their gameplan. In fact, I would say that Florida State does not have a single Defensive Line starter that could start for the Canes or Tigers. FSU has planned for most of this offseason to stop this attack, and should better prepared this time around. It would be nice if the Noles CB Patrick Robinson would play as he has been hampered by an ankle injury while GT's WR D Thomas is excellent. Georgia Tech will get their yards and some points, however, their recent revelation that their coach doesn't trust their quarterback to make reads but rather calls predetermined run plays could help the Noles in this game of rock, paper, scissors. I dont like the matchup of the Noles man-to-man defense against this attack, but FSU does not run a good zone defense so man-to-man will still be played. I expect GT to get 30 pts and 455 yards on 61 plays. I also expect them to yield two turnovers.

While Georgia Tech's offense is still very good, their defense has taken a large step back this year. They lost three of four starting defensive lineman, all to the NFL. A starting safety, a starting linebacker, a starting defensive end as well as his backup will all be out because of injury. Tech however, has the best player on the field on either team in #91 DE Derrick Morgan. He lines up across from Zebrie Sanders which means that Florida State will give Sanders a ton of help in pass protection. Their secondary does feature an All-Conference Safety and two good Corners all of which are vulnerable to giving up the big pass play because of their agressiveness. I feel that the run game is close to being corrected, as the errors I saw on film are minor and not fatal. In the red zone where Florida State has struggled recently, I expect Florida State to use more spread sets because their young TEs and FBs are simply not suited for a goalline jumbo package at this point in their careers. I see FSU scoring 35 pts and gaining 440 yards on 70 plays with no turnovers. I also expect a big special teams play in the return game as Georgia Tech has been vulnerable to that this year.

35 - 30 Noles. I think people are overestimating the impact of this week's media attention on the coaching dysfunction. This team is use to seeing coaches fighting, and the turmoil that comes with that. They have been affected in every game this year, however, I see no reason why this week's turmoil will be worse than previous weeks.

The Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

FSUncensored — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:50:44 -0000

Gametime is 3:30, on ABC or ESPN. How do you know which network to watch? I have you covered:

The TomahawkNation forecast indicates an 80% chance of a lot of rain, with temps in the upper 60's to the lower 70's. Wet.

Be here for the Tomahawk Nation livegamethread!

The preview awaits you. It is here to consume the rest of your day.

This summer, I wrote a preview of BC's defense. Unless you've been reading us for a while, you probably don't understand just how good BC's defense was last season. So read it.

Here's the part I want to highlight, my prediction.

BC plays a read and react defense under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani (now the head coach), which means they rarely blitz. Spaziani is highly thought of as a defensive coordinator and is very detail oriented. He has always done a nice job of adapting his scheme to his personnel. And this year he has quite the task on his hands with the loss of his 3 best players (by far). BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season. Let's see what they bring back...

Defensive Line & Linebackers (The "Front 7")

Gone are the big boys we discussed above. BC doesn't have the ability to replace them. The best of this group is tackle Damik Scafe (6-3, 293, Jr.). He played a bit last year and will probably play in the NFL eventually, though he's an obvious dropoff from last year. The other tackle is tackle Kaleb Ramsey (6-3, 256, Soph.) Young and obviously not very strong, he's a major liability and most teams will be able to run on him.

While BC has major questions at tackle, they are considerable better off at defensive end. Austin Giles (6-3, 283, Sr.) will battle Alex Albright 6'2" 250 could also get the nod. At the other end, Jim Ramella (6-4, 243, Sr.) is a very solid player. These guys are good, but not great, and won't come close to having the impact that the two interior guys had last year. In fact, they could regress as teams focus on them and not the interior guys.

At linebacker, the Eagles are a mess. They lost Herzlich and he obviously isn't replacable. They also lost Robert Francois (6'2" 255), and Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin (6'0" 252) will try to return from tearing his Achilles back in March, but even if he does come back, he'll be quite rusty. Trying to replace Herzlich is sophomore Dominick LeGrande 6'2" 200 (yes, 200). He's not ready, but has to play anyways because of Herzlich's absence. LeGrande played safety last year. Sophomore Will Thompson (6'1" 235) will replace McLaughlin if he can't go. He has impressed people but is not as good as the guy he will be asked to replace. At the other position will be one of two redshirt freshmen in 6'3" 217lb Nick Clancy or 6'3" 222lb Alexander Disanzo.

These guys are much smaller, much less experienced, much less talented, and much younger. There's a huge dropoff for BC's defensive line and linebackers.

So BC's front-7 did weigh 1902lbs. This year, they will weigh in at 1711bs. That's a huge dropoff of 191lbs! No team in the country that I could find had this significant a dropoff, and nobody else was even close. That's to say nothing of the talent they lost (regardless of size), which they can't replace this season.

So 1711lbs combined in their front 7. Why does this matter? FSU's run game destroys small front 7's.

So, I was close, but I need to make a few changes. Giles is starting at DT, not Ramsey. McLaughlin is back and starting, though I was not impressed with him against Wake. He pressed too much. FSU also needs to make sure to exploit him in coverage, because he is not agile to put it mildly. LeGrande is their best linebacker, but he missed the Wake game with a concussion and is expected to return.

In any case, 1743lbs is their new weight, which is still 159lbs lighter than they were last year. Frequent readers will remember that I thought FSU could run on BYU because of their diminutive front-7 (under 1750lbs), and run the Noles did. USF's front-7 was decently sized at 1818lbs , but very very talented, and paired with a poor performance from FSU's line, the run game wasn't there. I won't say that BC's front-7 is as bad as BYU's, but they are nowhere close to USF's, or Miami's for that matter.

But so far this year, they have done a nice job stopping the run. Most of that work was done with the extra safety, however, and that comes with some consequences. BC's defense is really well coached. Spaziani is a great defensive coach. BC's guys know they have to take chances, but that comes at a cost. BC plays a lot of zone defense, with 8 in the box, and that leaves them exposed to big plays when their guys jump routes. As I discuss a bit below, Wake did exploit them some. Clemson, however, could not because their wide receivers are wildly undisciplined, dropped balls, and most importantly, because their offensive line is pretty bad and BC didn't really need 8 in the box to stop them. Wake's run game has been terrible for almost half a decade, and they still loaded the box and allowed 1st down passing.

Here's some notes from the Wake game:

Dr. Saturday Wrote:

B.C. controlled the vast majority of this game, moving ahead 24-10 early in the fourth quarter.

The Deacons could have been there, though, if not for a few of the usual blown opportunities, specifically a fumble in Eagle territory and a missed field goal in the first half. With its back against the wall, Wake drove for two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to tie, using a grand total of three minutes to go 67 and 80 yards, respectively, to put the game into overtime on a Riley Skinner throw into the end zone with 11 seconds left; from there, following a B.C. field goal on its turn with the ball, the Deacons proceeded to move to the Eagle three-yard line with a chance to score for the win. Cue crushing fumble on first-and-goal, an Eagle recovery and a hard ending to one of the best comeback efforts of the day.

The desperately-needed B.C. win takes a lot of sting out of the Eagles' late defensive collapse, which couldn't get a stop at the end of regulation (and nearly failed in overtime, too) and gave up five passes longer than 20 yards, most in the second half.

But how much of those last two drives were because of BC's Prevent Defense as BC fans contend? What about the turnovers? Was Wake's run game all one play?

Deacons Make Good 1st Down Choices

Wake had less than ideal success with 1st down running, having success only only 4 of 14 1st down runs (defined as 50% of necessary yardage). 4 of them went for a "stuff" (less than 10% of necessary remaining yardage). The other 5 were somewhere between 11 and 49% of necessary yardage.

But part of that had to do with BC's decision to take away the run by using an extra defender down in the box (typically a very aggressive safety). So Wake countered by throwing on 1st down (this is similar to what Miami did to the Noles). Wake threw on 17 1st downs. Only three of those passes were incomplete. Of the 14 that were complete, 11 were successful, and of those 11, 8 went for 1st downs. That's 9.4 yards per pass, 11.4 per completion. But on the issue of the prevent defense, there is some merit to that. 6 of the 11 successful 1st down pass plays were on the last two drives, and BC was definitely playing off coverage. They also didn't play it that well, as some of the completions were rather short.

It is worth noting that two of the turnovers for Wake wasn't really turnovers at all. One was simply a fumble on 4th and 25. Another was an interception on 4th and 6 from midfield, intercepted at the goal line. Both plays were better or similar to the what would have happened if the pass just fell incomplete or the runner was simply tackled.

Situation	Plays	Yards	Yards/Play	Points/ Play
1st 10 Drives	45	328	7.3	0.222
Last 2 Drives ("Prevent")	16	147	9.2	0.875
Overtime	5	17	3.4	0 (Obvious)

Okay, so there was something to the prevent argument.

Long Distance Down Struggles Signal Lack of Pass Rush

Wake faced 21 2nd or 3rd down and long situations. They passed on 13 of those. These are known as high leverage situations for the defense. They were successful on 5 of those. 5 of 13 is very good for an offense in long downs, particularly when you consider what some of those plays were. On 3rd and long, Wake hit passes of 58, 26, and 38 yards. They got no pass rush, and some of the linebackers and safeties really looked awkward in coverage. When BC blitzed, they did not get to Skinner (no sacks and very little pressure).

Name	Rush	Yards	Avg
QB Rushing	7	3	0.4
WR Rushing	6	-7	-1.2
RB Running (w/o 76 yard run)	17	70	4.1
RB 76 Yard Rush	1	76	76

The point of this chart, is to show that Wake Forest ran almost 10% of their plays as runs to the wideouts, with poor results. The run game, for most of the day, wasn't special, and definitely inflated by the one long run (which of course, does count, so we can't dismiss it. When a defense loads the box, it increases the chance they stop the run, but also increases the chance of allowing a big run, because of the angles.

So back to their secondary. Here's what I wrote before.

Secondary

Remember all those interceptions? Kiss them goodbye. BC's secondary was allowed to play pass first, second, and last. Now? They'll have to use one of the secondary members (a safety) in run support. The burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that put opposing offenses in tough situations? I think it's the latter. None of the BC secondary guys are likely all-conference candidates or NFL players (none are projected to go in the 2010 or 2011 draft). Let's have a look:

At Safety, BC should be okay with Free Safety Wes Davis and Strong Safety Marcellus Bowman. Davis is a 6'2" 215 Junior who produced 60 tackles, 3 tfl, 2 INT, 6 pass breakups last year. He's a decent player in coverage and in run suppot, but as with most of these guys, I expect him to get exposed because he now has to play run and pass (can't play 25 yards off the ball). Davis will be hung out to dry all by himself because Bowman, a 6'2" 217lb Senior will be called upon to help stop the run. Again, the loss of the great front-7 guys (both expected and unexpected) is going to put tremendous pressure on this secondary.

At corner, BC has similar problems. They return the experienced Roderick Rollins, a 6-0, 188-pound senior. Rollins has had the benefit of a lot of help from his safeties in his career and that help won't be there this year. He's decently physical, but can he turn and run after the initial bump coverage? We shall see. At the other corner spot is rising sophomore Donnie Fletcher (6'1" 188lbs). Fletcher is another big corner. They also have the experienced Deleon Gause 5'11" 174lb, a Junior who has good physical skills, but is inconsistent.

BC's secondary plays extremely physical, which is great when they have the help of safeties who aren't pre-occupied with stopping the run. But without safety help, if the corners can't run and run, they will be burned for long TD's. Wes Davis will have to prove that he can cover the deep middle instead of a deep half (now that Bowman will play down in the box).t

I am pretty impressed with Rollins, he's a quality corner. **Update** Rollins is apparently doubtful with some sort of leg injury. Fletcher, however, has been burnt on some double moves. Despite their decent showing so far, I stand by my summer evaluation. This secondary was a product of a really good front-7, which is just no longer there. It's very important for FSU to stay in manageable down and distance. If they can, it will be like the BYU game, putting BC in tough situations and forcing their hand. If the Noles cannot, it will be much tougher for them. Spaziani is the master of the 3-5-3 defense (not 3-3-5, but 3-5-3). Here's an excerpt, but check out Dr. B's great article on the subject (lots of video as well). That should kill an hour of work for you, at least.

The basic package appears as a variation on the 33 Stackset with an extra OLB/Nickelback playing, with the SS being the 5th guy in the underneath zone. BC's base is still a 4-3. WILL and SS take the flats underneath, with the two interior LBs playing hook/curl zone and the SAM taking a slot/TE (curl) zone up the seam (note that it could also appear as a shifted 4-3, with the Sam playing in a 3pt stance). The two CBs and the FS are playing the usual 3-deep zone coverage. In the figure above, W, S, and B are LB's (Will/Sam/Bandit), and the SS's are called "Dogs" on the callside, "Rover" on the weakside. One of them will most likely be a OLB or backup Safety/Nickel. Its just terminology.

Read the explanation (Long)

As that article indicates, hitting the 4-verticals play will be key. Wake did it to them. We saw FSU use this against Jax State (Caz Piurowski), and once against BYU.

BC's defense was the ACC's best and easily top 5 nationally. They beat FSU up last year. FSU had the youngest offensive line in the country and were destroyed by an ultra-talented and experienced set of defensive linemen and linebackers. I have full confidence that Frank Spaziani will come up with good game plan after good game plan, but his ability to get creative will be severely hampered because his defense will face far fewer obvious passing situations. He's also never been a blitz guy, and he'll definitely need to blitz FSU to get pressure, because FSU's offensive line can handle BC's 3 or 4 man rush. When BC blitzes, can their secondary handle the single coverage responsibilities against FSU's wideouts? Though they will run a lot of cover-3, I do expect to see some man at times, particularly when blitzing. I expect FSU to run the ball on BC, even without a 100% Christian Ponder, force BC to make adjustments that they really don't want to do, and then FSU will exploit them down the field. This game could look very different from a big plays standpoint. BYU was content to sit back, but BC will not. If FSU starts to run on them, or picks them apart underneath, Spaziani will blitz. Their blitz wasn't good against Wake Forest, but I suspect it will be better Saturday, if needed.

For Florida State, a lot of this game comes down to not beating themselves. They have to get DT Scafe blocked. Other than that, I would not be worried about BC's defensive players more so than I would about FSU beating themselves. FSU needs to throw when BC has predictable run personnel in the game, be it via play-action or a regular dropback. McGlaughlin is 30lbs bigger than any other linebacker BC has, and FSU needs to make BC pay for having him on the field, specifically because he isn't particularly mobile at this point. And if they remove him, run the ball. Jermaine Thomas is back this week as the starting running back, which should be good. I could See Easterling having a big day from the slot.

Of course, the major X-Factor is the rain, and there will be lots and lots of cold rain. I am not sure what that means for a team like FSU, and this game is played on turf. So far this year I predicted a very high scoring Miami game, a high scoring Win at BYU, and had a very uneasy feeling about the USF game, predicting FSU to win by less than a touchdown when everyone else saw a blowout. I don't have the same grasp on this game. I'll say FSU runs for 180 yards on 36 carries, and throws for 240 yards on 30 pass plays (28 throws, 2 sacks). It'll be good for 28 points in some nasty conditions.

I watched the Clemson and Wake Forest games in their entirety. I don't feel much can be learned from the Clemson game in terms of defending BC. Clemson has one of the top 3 defenses in the country. I can think of at least 35 teams I would trade defenses with. Clemson was able to do things to the Eagle's offense that FSU simply cannot do, because literally, Clemson has a definitively better player at 9 of the 11 defensive positions. Also, Clemson is much better coached. But we can still break down BC's Offense, which again, will probably look like what we saw against Wake and not Clemson.

In the off-season, I wrote this on BC's Offense. There have been some changes, so I'll quickly run through them.

The Eagles lost up and coming star coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was fired after flirting with the NFL. That's a smart move for Boston College, because Jags is a very hot commodity and would have left soon anyways. He got a lot out of his players and his team outperformed the expectations of everyone. The Eagles also lost highly respected Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach, Steve Logan. Both are not with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Replacing Jagodzinski is longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. More on him later. Replacing Logan is Gary Tranquil, who was born in 1940. At one time, he was a decent offensive coach, but he's been out of the college game for 4 years. Where Logan was excellent and really took advantage of his player's talents and opposing defenses, Tranquil is not highly thought of. He runs a pro-style offense, does not spread teams out, and does not utilize his quarterback in the run game at all. His schemes are simple and from a purely schematic standpoint, Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews should own him. They are also abandoning their zone blocking scheme. Tranquil's offense is literally what Mickey Andrew's defense is designed to stop.

Unfortunately, there have been some changes here. I still don't think Tranquil is any good, but after their anemic showing against Clemson, they scrapped a lot of the new stuff and went back to the zone scheme that was successful for them last season. BC is running a lot of two-tight end sets, which scares me. I will say I was right in that they are trying to be more of a power run team. In an ideal world, they man-block a power run game. The next best thing for FSU would be power running w/ no QB threat from a zone scheme. The worst possible scenario would be spread run with a mobile QB. So it's not all bad, but it's definitely not ideal.

Boston College has a great offensive line. We talk a lot about how good FSU's O-Line can be, but I am here to tell you that BC's line is every bit as good. This is one of the best offensive lines in the country. They return all 5 starters. This is an excellent group. People make a big deal about his "big" these guys are, but they really aren't huge.

LT Anthony Castonzo (6-7, 287, Jr.)
RT Rich Lapham (6-8, 322, Jr.)
LG Thomas Claiborne (6-3, 323, Jr.)
RG Emmett Cleary (6-7, 270, R-Fr.)
C Matt Tennant (6-4, 294, Sr.)

Castonzo is a likely NFL 1st day pick (2nd rounder, maybe 1st, probably 2011 draft). He is an excellent pass blocker and is pretty quick. FSU's defensive end will have a tough time doing much against him. Lapham is obviously huge at right tackle. He is a very good run blocker but has bad feet and is a liability in pass protection. Not an NFL player. At Left Guard, Claiborne is an ex-defensive tackle who was excellent last year. He was 3rd team ALL-ACC and should be even better this year. Claiborne is an NFL player provided he keeps his weight in check. At Left Guard, Cleary is the newcomer to the group. He could be good eventually and was a tackle coming out of high school, but he's quite raw and will need to work on his back and knee bend to be any good. At Center, Tennant should be first team ACC. He's better than FSU's Ryan McMahon, though obviously less known. Don't get mad, FSU fans, I'm just giving it to you straight. BC has at least three NFL linemen who are probably 1st day (top 4 round) selections on their line. They return 4 starters and the line has 4 upperclassmen. This is an excellent offensive line and will make BC's skill position players look much better than they are. This isn't the most heralded unit in the country, but unless you judge offensive lines on things other than performance, talent, or experience, they should be considered one of the better groups. FSU will have one heckuva time against this unit.

Not much change here. Important to note that they were terrible against an all-time great Clemson defensive line, which was partially due to the Tiger's dominance, and partially due to the confusion. How disciplined to the scheme will BC stay? Will Tranquil try to throw some of his new stuff in there and risk confusing his own group? BC has a huge advantage here. They should be conservative and pound the rock until FSU clearly says "we're devoting extra people against the run, throw on us." FSU's DLine is now as bad as I thought they would be- they are worse.

At Quarterback, BC has Dave Shinskie, who is a 25 year-old Pocket passer and he also played minor league baseball. He hasn't played football in 6 years. More on him here. He's a good passer, because he was a decent prospect coming out of high school. He's not a run threat, however, and that's really what the 'Noles care about. They also have a kid named Tuggle, son of former NFL All-Pro Jessie Tuggle. He's an athletic freak but a really erratic passer.

If I were BC, I'd use Tuggle in the shotgun all day and run zone read down FSU's throat 55 times for about 350 yards. I think we'll see some Wildcat with him, but not as the base package, and that's a good thing.

The Eagles look good at running back. Montel Harris is their big back at 5' 10" 200. He had one heckuva game last year against the 'Noles as a freshman. He's not a home run threat, and this author thinks he's more of a product of BC's offensive line, but he does what is asked of him and grinds out tough yards. Last year he gained 900 yards on 179 carries (5 YPC), and caught 20 balls for 160 yards. The other back is Josh Haden, a scatback who gained 479 yards on 120 carries (4 YPC). He's 5'8" 182lbs, but should catch a few more balls this year. Blocking for these two is Senior James McClusky. He's 6'2" 250lbs and a mauler. He did hurt his Achilles in spring, however, and the Eagles desperately need him to be healthy this year as they utilize a 2-back attack. I fully expect Harris to get 200 carries this year, and also expect his average to drop a bit as other teams key on him more.

McCluskey is doubtful with an Achilles injury. So BC is running more two tight end sets, as I mentioned. Haden is still inconsistent, but he is very skilled and could break a long run. So about those wideouts and tight ends...

The Eagles do return WR Rich Gunnell, who was basically Robinson's equal in production, though far less explosive. Florida State's Patrick Robinson can easily handle him one on one without help (Robinson is CBS' #1 Draft Eligible Corner), and he'll be asked to as the 'Noles focus on stopping the run. They also have Justin Jarvis, who is 6'5" and was decently productive this year. Can Jarvis handle the increased role? That remains to be seen, but the Eagles are counting on him. The remaining guys are relatively unheralded wild cards. Junior Ifeanyi Momah is 6'6" 230 and caught 11 for 149 and 3TD's last season. He's their Greg Carr, except bulkier and about as fast as your average tight end. RsFr Clyde Lee had a decent spring I am told and could play some in the slot (though I suspect BC will not use many 3-wide sets). Finally, can Senior Clarence Megwa (6'1" 190) come back from a thought to be career-ending leg injury? If he can, BC will need him, because he started for them last year. Update: Megwa's leg is apparently healed, he's dealing with a hand injury and they expect him to be ready for the FSU game.

At tight end, 6'3" 250lb Soph Lars Anderson has a chance to be a very good pass catcher. Last year he snagged 9 balls for 85 yards. They also have Jordan McMichael, who was a very nice recruit in 2006 (I think), but has done nothing to date to impress anyone.

I don't think any of the draft eligible guys will get drafted. They really don't seem all that special. They aren't bad, but rather are just good college players.

Some notes. First, Gunnell has struggled, which almost certainly means he will have a big day against FSU, but Robinson should lock him down easily. Momah is definitely out. BC is using a tight end by the name of Chris Pantale, and he's been good for them. The McMichael kid is very good. Again, two tight end sets.

For FSU, most of the defensive line will play, but that is not to say they are healthy. Freshman JaJuan Harley, back from injury problems, will start at Rover over much maligned Senior Korey Mangum. Think of it as a mercy killing. Harley is the best athlete on the team and maybe in the ACC, but expect maddening inconsistency, busts, and also some highlight plays from the true freshman making his first ever start.

I expect BC to stay in two-tight end sets, with 1 back and two wideouts. They should be able to run the ball on the Noles, particularly with counters and traps, in addition to their zone run game, which is already good. I'm not re-inventing the wheel here. This is the same stuff you've seen since Chuck Amato replaced Kevin Steele as FSU's linebacker coach. Oh, they have a little speed-option they run as well. BC runs a ton of play-action passes, and I expect them to do well with those to their two impressive tight ends because FSU's players just aren't taught well on the defensive side. The defensive acuity just hasn't been instilled in these guys. It's not their fault. I'll take BC to have 200 yards rushing and 180 throwing, and 24 points.

Noles 28, BC 24.

Note: the heavy, heavy rain here is keeping my score prediction down. If it were higher, I'd predict a higher number.

Processing the Result: USF's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:03:03 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State's Defense didn't hold down USF, the Bulls stopped themselves, and that doesn't bode well for the Seminoles' defense in future games. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

I'll start this with a few caveats. FSU's defensive coaching staff is a mess. Legendary defensive Mickey Andrews wanted to retire after 2007 (after his son Ronnie died unexpectedly), but was begged back by the old guard. He wanted to retire after 2008, but was begged back by Jimbo Fisher so that Bobby Bowden wouldn't make the disastrous move of promoting Chuck Amato to defensive coordinator. I won't speak ill of Mickey often, because he's been a great Nole, never selfish, and even in this his worst season ever (to date), he is doing FSU a greater service than most know by blocking Chuck Amato from taking the defensive coordinator position. It's thought that Bowden would have been allowed to name Amato as DC if Mickey had retired after last season, but not if he stayed on for this season and then retired. The ability to hire the defensive staff seems to rest on Jimbo. it would be silly to allow Bowden, a man who will be here for only one more season, to bring in the defensive staff he wants for only 12 games, and then make Fisher put the team through another coaching change (their third defensive coordinator in three years). For the administration to do anything but allow Fisher to select the defensive staff after Mickey retires this off-season (and he is retiring), would be to send a message that they simply do not care about the football program. If that happened, I would expect a string of bad seasons and a half-decade long rebuilding job following 2010. But I am told that will not happen. Fisher will be allowed to select the defensive staff and leave Bowden with no friends on staff. So Mickey doesn't want to be here. Amato is doing everything short of outright sabotage to hurt Fisher and tarnish his image. Amato is the evil on this team, while Bowden is the one enabling him and worse yet, trusting him. He also isn't coaching within the confines of Mickey's defense, and is telling kids things which run counter to what Andrews wants. Defensive Ends coach Jody Allen is one of the worst football coaches anywhere, and his continued employment is a joke. He's also rumored to have lost or chipped two teeth recently after an offensive coach, finally fed up with his inappropriate practice antics, hauled off and punched him in practice. Oh, and under Bowden's watch in 2006 and 2007, the defensive recruiting was completely horrible and without any rhyme or reason, so there are serious depth issues with the defense. Take zero defensive depth plus horrible coaching from coaches who are either has beens or never was', some of whom are more consumed with goading other members of the coaching staff than coaching their own position group and some who just don't want to be there, and you have a recipe for the worst Florida State defense in over a quarter century.

I am calling this series "Processing the Results" because results are only repeatable if the process justifies them.

	Good Process	Poor Process
Good Result	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.	Team was lucky , future poor process unlikely to yield similar good results.
Bad Result	Team was unlucky, future good process unlikely to yield similar bad results.	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.

So my goal in these will be to determine whether FSU's result justified their "process" (aka how they played). Anyone can just say "14 points, great defense", or "7 points, bad offense." They might be right, but I would like to make sure they are correct.

In this case, this was bad process, good result. Simply put, USF should have scored a lot more points, and it wasn't FSU that kept them from doing so. I'll explain why. I am quite concerned about this result, because it gives a false sense of self confidence. USF should have scored 35 points. In the preview I wrote:

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Daniels' above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. FSU must force Daniels to be accurate and drive, not allow the big play. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

And FSU allowed 14 points, but their play was much worse. USF missed two crucial field goals. They had guys running wide open all through the secondary, and Daniels just didn't see them, or overthrew them, or USF dropped the balls (like the wide open 45 yarder). After watching the tape, I was amazed at just how poorly Daniels read the defense. This does not bode well for future games. I can't honestly say that FSU's defense played any better in this game than they did against Miami or BYU. Sure, the points allowed was better, but USF's offense is not very good.

Time for a Youth Movement in the Secondary

As for the secondary players, let's start with Korey Mangum. We sure see # 22 running after wideouts who are on their way for 70+ yard TD's, but this is again process v. results v. prudent moves for the future of the program. Mangum didn't blow the coverages on those two long touchdowns, and he didn't blow the coverage on the long dropped pass either. So don't blame him for those plays. But there were other plays in which he busted coverages and Daniels just didn't hit the open receiver. I've seen enough of Mangum. He's not a good player. He might be better right now than some of the young players FSU has, but Florida State needs to go with a full youth movement on defense, much like UF did in 2007, before winning it all last season. The rule needs to be "Seniors who aren't significantly better than the underclassmen behind them need to sit the bench. That means Mangum sits the bench, and freshmen JaJuan Harley and Nick Moody play the strong safety/ rover position. Patrick Robinson will continue to play corner, and he is the best corner I have seen this year in college football. So should Ochuko Jenijie, because he is a lot better than most of you think, and will be a starter next year. Still, young guys like Dionte Allen (who blew the coverage on the long bomb along the sideline) should rorate with Jenijie. Ditto guys like Terrance Parks, who should rotate some with Jamie Robinson.

As for Greg Reid, I really think this is getting out of control. Greg is good when he can free-lance, but right now he is not ready to play on the base defense. Mickey Andrews was right in his press conference. Reid doesn't play his responsibility and tries to do too much. Until he proves that he can play man-coverage without trying to pay attention to the running game, he can't play on the base defense. That is not a coaching issue, or an experience issue, it's just simply a Greg Reid personal discipline issue. He can continue to be good in the underneath Nickel coverage, but even there, Reid gambles a lot and committed at least two pass interference penalties.

Yet I worry about a conflict of interest. Mickey Andrews is a prideful man, and with this being his last season, I can see, for personal reasons, why he would not want to go with a youth movement. But the real problem there, is of course, Bobby Bowden, who is again making decisions which are solely to benefit himself but counter to the interests of the program.

Run Defense is the Root of the Problem as Front-7 Size Rears its Ugly Head

I think a lot of the problems on defense, outside of the coaching and the lack of depth, is the complete inability to stop the run. The problem is still there, even if the results in the first two games didn't show it. We just didn't see it as often in the first two D1 games. Against Miami, FSU loaded up against the run and Miami, anticipating this, threw the ball on first down all over the defense. BYU wasn't much of a run team. But Jax State did a great job with the 11-man run game considering their personnel, and USF had a field day with it. I preached about this all summer, but if you weren't here, or need a refresher, here is part one and part two. Simply put, FSU's defensive scheme is outdated, depending only on speed, completely lacking in size, too dependent on their defensive backs to assist with the run game, which against a modern defense isn't realistic, and is now exploited by those modern offenses, even in their simplest forms. FSU's defensive backs aren't as bad as you think they are. The pressure on them is enormous, and their focus is divided on the run game, when they should be focusing on the pass because of the man coverage FSU asks them to play demands their undivided attention. So what do you do, allow the defense to be run on? It's just an impossible situation.

Let's take a look at the traditional box score against what really happened:

	Traditional Box Score	Smart Box Score
Rushing Plays	42	37
Rush Yards	153 (3.6)	187 (5.05)
Pass Plays	21	23
Pass Results	215 (10.2)	189 (8.2)

The change here is that the two sacks are counted as the failed result of a passing play in the Smart Box Score, as it should be. I also removed the QB Kneeldowns to end the game. Those are not contested plays.

187 rushing yards on 37 plays for USF is scary. It's over 5 yards per carry. USF's Offensive Line is Garbage. These guys did not impress me, but they dominated FSU's defensive line and linebackers outside of Nigel Bradham (I'll discuss him later). FSU's defensive line got worked by a bad offensive line, and that does not bode well for the future. FSU's defense was exposed by the 11-man rushing attack last season, by some very average offensive coaches, and it is continuing this season. I'll venture to say that FSU will face better offensive lines against Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Florida. The others will be about the same.

And the problem started on 1st down, where USF rushed 19 times, The result: -4, -2 (bad snap), 0, 1, 1, 2 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 44 On first down, when everyone knew USF wanted to run, they ran with success.

And in 2nd and long, FSU routinely let USF set up 3rd and shot, or just convert the play into a 1st down. 2nd down & Long Runs

Distance	Result
7	4
10	29
7	7
7	2
7	8
14	0
12	1
13	14
7	5

So on nine 2nd and long runs, USF gained a first down 4 times, and set up 3rd and short twice. FSU's rush defense failed 6 of 9 times to stop the run on 2nd and long.

As a whole, FSU's front-7 is very poorly coached and the lack of depth is really beginning to show. Again, we shouted about this for the entire off-season, much to the annoyance of many doubters. They fail to play inside out, with solid leverage. They overrun plays. Chuck Amato's freedom system is really hurting this linebacker corps. Amato brought the freedom system back with him after Kevin Steele left, and it basically entails just preaching intensity and making plays over technique, play recognition, and discipline. It was a complete abortion of an idea. FSU's linebackers already made tons of plays, but anyone with half a clue knows that big plays are mostly based on situational factors, not just trying to make them. Amato grew up coaching when FSU had a huge talent advantage over almost every opponent, and when it wasn't popular to expose over-aggressive defensive players via misdirection and the like. He has no idea how to teach linebackers right now, not that he even wants to, but he doesn't teach the players play recognition. The big plays aren't happening for the defense because the guys are out of position. It's complete guesswork on their part. Kevin Steele was a details freak. FSU's linebackers took much better pursuit angles under him. They shed blocks, while now, Amato has them just trying to run around blocks, which doesn't work against the modern offense. They have to play with good inside-out leverage, and it is clear that taking on blocks and playing with that leverage is not being taught in practice.

FSU's defense did the exact opposite of what I called for:

To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. It's not about getting around the blocker and to Daniels, it is about collapsing the pocket and then reacting once he scrambles. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

And that did not happen. FSU routinely lost contain and did not play with intelligence.

As for individual performances, I'll run through them quickly. Markus White is average at best, has no rush moves, and is really a guy who is hurt by Jody Allen's lack of coaching (he never played defensive end or even defense, yet was promoted by Bobby to the position because of familiarity). He also tries to jump around blocks instead of taking them on, stoning them, and shedding them. Kevin McNeil is extremely lazy, and it's sad because he had a chance to play in the league. If FSU had any sort of depth in the defensive front seven (short about 8 players), McNiel would have to work harder or risk losing his starting spot. His late hit penalty was inexcusable, and it was a direct result of him being lazy in the first few seconds of the play. You can tell that McDaniel is more injured than the reports indicated, and FSU is having to use Everette Dawkins at DT. Give Dawkins credit, he played really hard and even made a few plays. I expect him to be a good player eventually, hopefully at defensive end. He should be at end, in a perfect world, but with FSU's lack of depth at defensive tackle last week, they needed him to play. Jamar Jackson isn't any good and I don't expect much out of him. Toshmon seems to have some potential, but he is way too small right now.

I am really disappointed in some of the linebacker play. It's really Nigel Bradham and then everyone else. Bradham plays out of his mind. He takes on blocks and it must just be an innate ability, because it's clearly not being taught to the other backers. His series towards the end of the game, He is the only decent player in the front seven. Dekoda Watson is playing really, really soft. Kendal Smith is terrible and should probably sit the bench in favor of Nigel Carr. Maurice Harriss doesn't impress me much.

The bottom line is that FSU couldn't stop USF's running game, when the Noles had 3 linebackers in the game and USF had 4 wide receivers in.

And if you want more proof as to FSU's run defense being the real problem, I have that for you. Now, remember that USF went way conservative. FSU'd DB's are just too concerned with the run, but they have to be because the run defense is so bad.

In 2nd and 3rd and long situations, FSU's pass defense was excellent, because they didn't have to worry about the run as much. The DB's really are not that bad. It's the front-7.

2nd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
23	Sack
10	Incomplete
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete
10	Incomplete
10	INTerception
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete

3rd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
7	Sack
10	Incomplete
5	Incomplete
6	INTerception
15	Sack
7	8 yards

That's dominance. This defense is made to play the pass. They just can't stop the run at all.

Strategy Concerns, etc.

I don't want to give away stuff that would hurt the team, though I suspect every other team already knows what i would say. FSU really struggles against any kind of trips alignment. I've seen it for about three years now. The adjustments are much too slow. The coverage checks are obvious and predictable. Georgia Tech is going to kill them on that just as they did last year.

Oh, and the interceptions weren't forced, they were just really dumb throws.

USF basically gave up towards the end of the game, running the same 3-4 plays over and over again. It was depressing. They didn't even try anything risky in the 2nd half.

In closing, the play of the Seminoles defense doesn't suggest this result is not likely to be repeated. FSU's coaches don't have the ability to remedy this now, and they definitely can't make up for two years of poor recruiting in 2006 and 2007.

Can the Noles defense make any adjustments for the Boston College game? I'll tackle that tomorrow.

The Conversation: Talking USF @ Florida State with TheBullsPen.com

FSUncensored — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:28:37 -0000

This week's guest is TheBullsPen.com. It's a forum, and we've never had a Q&A with a forum before. After reaching out to some USF beat writers, and getting no response, we turned to these guys. Their response was very good. If you're a USF fan finding this on google, you need to get to TheBullsPen.com ans sign up. It's a nice community and they are pretty serious about their football.

Waylon Jennings & Hank Williams Jr - The Conversation (via Slasheri)

There's a story behind the clip. People said we needed to use more youtube clips. I happen to like Waylon and when you type "the conversation" into youtube, this is what you get.

First up, USF's questions to us:

With FSU's revent struggles with mobile QBs how do you think they will deal with USF's type of spread where an athletic QB and his ability to hurt you running or passing is the centerpiece?

I don't think this FSU defense is any good. It's easily the worst in my lifetime (born '85). They rely on a lot of young kids, who mix great plays with boneheaded decisions. There are some encouraging signs, however. First, FSU has an excellent gun-run game, so the defense has now had an entire spring and fall camp to see this look. Second, the defensive interior is bigger, which should help. Third, FSU now has three legit linebackers, as compared to last season which saw FSU scramble and convert two safeties to the linebacker position to make up for some early entries to the NFL and some injuries.

If there is one unit on offense or defense that FSU must contain to beat USF , which would it be? What do you feel will FSU's biggest advantage will be on Saturday, biggest weakness? What are your 3 keys to victory, for both teams?

I'll try to profile this in Friday's preview (it's worth the wait, trust me), but FSU obviously can't just allow any unit to run wild. I'll say the contain game. USF RsFr. QB B.J. Daniels has a big arm, but he can be erratic and lacks touch, so FSU has to make him sit in the pocket and not allow him to scramble around.

FSU's biggest advantage, outside of home field, should be their offensive line. Staying in good down and distance will be key. I also think FSU has an advantage with their 3rd and 4th wideout against USF's 3rd and 4th corner. If USF is going to win this game, they must run the ball very well to get FSU into some more favorable coverages. To that end, USF's offensive line has to play well.

I'll discuss this more in-depth Friday, but USF must establish the run, find play calling balance (not try to do too much or too little as to be predictable), and must sell-out against the run. FSU just needs to run the ball, not try to do too much on offense, and not allow big special teams plays.

How do you stop George Selvie?

Selvie is a good pass rusher. FSU will block him with Sophomore Andrew Datko. Datko was a freshman All-American a season ago and has picked up where he left off. Over summer, I profiled the insane slate he'd face this season. Selvie had a great Sophomore year, but was a disappointment last season, probably because he was injured. Datko has excellent technique and I am not overly worried about this matchup because Selvie doesn't have much of a bull-rush move. Datko can handle a guy who tries to get around the corner every time. He's 6'6" 291, so occasionally he will struggle against an elite defensive end who has a strong bull-rush move to compliment the outside stuff. I also expect FSU to run right at Selvie, because he does not like to play the run from what I have seen.

For more of our responses, to answer a few of their questions, and to see TheBullsPen's excellent answers, continue reading!

I can't think of a more baffling team in the country right now than yours. They've yo-yoed up and down the first three weeks, and I don't think anyone expected them to torch BYU the way they did after their near-death experience with Jacksonville State. Which game that you've played so far, if any, represents the true 2009 Seminoles?

I recently told Andy Staples of SI: you can choose to judge their two games against ranked D1 competition, or you can choose to look at a game they played against Jax State under circumstances that many teams will face this season, just not as extreme as the Noles faced.

After three games, FSU is 118th against the pass in I-A - only UAB and Washington State have given up more yards. Is that an illusion, or are there issues in the back seven that haven't been addressed?

The issues in my mind are along the defensive line, which has played poorly. Considering what has been asked of them, I think the secondary has played okay. FSU has asked its guys to play straight man coverage for 5 or 6 seconds, and nobody can do that (though Patrick Robinson has played very well and pretty much locked down his side, as the top corner in the nation should do.) But you also have to consider who they played. MIami's dynamic offense, BYU's very impressive attack (which by the way, FSU did hold to only 21 points before the Noles pulled their starters). They also faced the top QB recruit in the country and the MVP of the SEC championship game in Ryan Perriloux for Jax State. There's not another team that has faced similar competition to date. There are issues, but that ranking isn't indicative of FSU's performance, because it doesn't adjust for competition level.

- I'm not going to lie, if USF were ever to replace one of the "Big 3" in Florida, many Bulls fans think FSU would be the one getting replaced. With Mickey Andrews saying he wants to retire at the end of the season, and Bowden looking more like a coach emeritus every year, how concerned are you about the long-term health of the program? How much faith does the average FSU fan have in Jimbo Fisher when Bobby finally retires?

I was very concerned in 2004-2007, but FSU has a stadium,, tradition, and now has a plan. They have to deal with one more year of this Bowden nonsense, but I don't think people realize all that goes in to making a program, particularly the booster base, stadium, recruiting, a conference, etc. I think USF has a shot to be the .5 in the Fla 3.5 Everyone inside the program and most knowledgeable outsiders will tell you that losing Andrews and Bowden represents an immeasurable upgrade. Jimbo Fisher saved Florida State at a time when most didn't realize how bad the program was internally, with a lot of behind the scenes stuff that I don't have enough space to describe. The improvements he's made, particularly in recruiting and organization structure, and the improvements he will make in this and next off-season will lay the groundwork for sustained play at the highest level. I understand that many don't think Miami would be replaced, but they don't have a stadium and rumor has it that their booster contributions are way, way down.

It seems like the light bulb clicked on inside Christian Ponder's head this offseason. What improvements has he made from last year to this year that have made him so effective?

I'm going to brag a bit here. Tomahawk Nation was probably the only site not to get on the "Ponder Sux11!!11!1" bangwagon a season ago. Now, we do have some coaches (not FSU's coaches, haha) who write for us, so that helps. We identified the problem of a year ago: the youngest offensive line in America (3 true freshmen, two sophomores), which while good at run blocking, was poor in pass protection. FSU had to scheme around their offensive line, and Fisher rightfully won the ACC offensive coordinator of the year award for delivering the top offense in the conference despite the line. In the off-season, we broke it down and wondered whether the offensive line would take that next leap. We said that they likely would. So far so good, as FSU has the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Ponder looks like a completely new quarterback, the best FSU has had in a decade, and he'll be running the 2nd best offense USF has ever faced (the Oregon team in the Sun Bowl a few years ago was very special).

Are you more or less confident in slowing down USF's offense with B.J. Daniels under center than you would have been if Grothe were playing? Why?

Tough question. Over the summer, I wrote:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

I didn't mean to jinx him, USF fans, honest. I'll split on this. If FSU shreds USF's defense like they did to Miami and BYU, then USF would be better off having Grothe, because I think he is less likely to have a completely embarrassing and career/program scaring meltdown than B.J. Daniels.

But if USF starts to volley with FSU, then I think USF fans should prefer Daniels, a kid with better physical tools, probably just making plays, and gaining confidence as the game goes on.

Many of us are also Bucs fans, and we'd like to thank you all for Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn, among others. Which current Noles do you think we'll all get to know on Sundays in the future? Offensive Tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will play in the league, as will Guard Rodney Hudson. Wide receivers Richard Goodman and Jarmon Fortson will get paid. On defense you'll see DT Jacobbi McDaniel, LB's Dekoda Watson and Nigel Bradham, and definitely CB Patrick Robinson (considered by many to be the top CB in the country).

Finally, here's a few our fans can answer:

- This may be the best-attended road game by USF fans that we've ever had - right up there with the time we took over FAU's little sandbox of a stadium. Any suggestions on what to do (and what not to do) in the parking lots and at the stadium? Maybe some things we wouldn't think of. We all know bad things would happen if someone tried to stop Renegade and Chief Osceola. Does it bother you that Gene Deckerhoff went to UF?

What are your feelings on playing against USF for the first time? What 5 places should USF fans make sure to visit while in Tally?

Now, Tomahawk Nation's questions to USF

In your honest opinion how much of a drop off or rise in play do you see with the redshirt freshman quarterback leading the offense? How much of the offense can he handle? How will this impact playcalling?

Jamie: I hate to say "I don't know" but... I don't know. We can go off of what we've seen in the two games Daniels has played in extensively so far (which were both against I-AA schools) and what everyone within the program says about him. He's faster than Grothe, he has a stronger arm, and everyone says he has the same competitive streak in him - which makes sense, since he played basketball last year in the toughest conference in America. But until you really throw him in the water and see if he can swim or not, you never know for sure. Even if the Bulls lose the game, it will be very encouraging if Daniels still plays well. Grothe won his first-ever road game at UCF, and nearly won his second one at Kansas (the year before they really took off - I was at that game and can still see the winning touchdown pass skimming off Ean Randolph's hands... what a bummer). It only took that long for us to figure out that he had something.

Mike Canales (our offensive coordinator) says they're not going to limit Daniels. I think we're interested in knowing whether Canales has limited himself in the first three games because he didn't want to give FSU a roadmap to stopping the offense. It seems like the offense has been opening up a bit since the Wofford game, but we have no idea how much of the playbook is available at this point.

Jim: While the style hasn't changed much, the offense was new this year even for Grothe. Daniels probably had more reps in the spring and camp cycles to protect Grothe from injuries. (Grothe hurt his hip pointer in Aug 08, so there was some concern). Coach Canales also said that preparation this week would not change.

Daniels is a taller, faster, stronger version of Matt Grothe. He doesn't have Matt's experience, and has not shown the same personality (back up QB's don't usually show the "moxie" when they are in the game for mop-up duty).

The real issue will be how quickly Daniels can adjust to the FSU speed. Sure, he sees a fast defense every day in practice - but practice speed isn't game speed. If he can adjust quickly, we'll be fine.

Data: Really, I don't know. In terms of pure physical talent, Daniels is better. He seems to be very calm and confident in the pocket. Overall, I'd say our big play ability is a little higher. Daniels can just make throws that Grothe wouldn't be able to. We'll have to see whether Daniels is nervous, or just makes mistakes seeing the field against the speed of FSU. I have a feeling the overall dropoff won't be much, but we won't know until Saturday.

Dan: I can't say I truly expect an actual rise yet, because we just don't know, and it's a hell of a game to have your first start in, but I don't expect alot of dropoff. I think BJ Daniels' skillset will help make up for a little bit of the dropoff, if there is any. And the team will be rallying around him and playing their hearts out for Grothe. I think he can handle the whole offense. Playcalling won't be much different, but I still think there are things that both QBs practiced that will be new to everyone, including us.

If you had to point to a place on the timeline of FSU football, where would USF be today?

Jamie: We're probably you guys around 1982. We've come a long way and there are a few skins on the wall, but people are wondering if we're legit or not. You guys won at Ohio State two straight years - we beat West Virginia two straight years when they were in the top 10. We're hoping that we're in a bit of a leveling off period while we wait for the next step up to true elite status.

Jim: It's a bit different. USF is in a conference, and a BCS conference at that. FSU for most of the rise to power was independent - which means USF can't follow the same path. However, I would put USF at about the 1980 FSU timeline.

Data: You'd have to help me out with the years. I would say we are somewhere around the Casey Weldon early years, or maybe a year or two before Weldon took over. The team is at the point where ending the season in the Top 25 should be a reasonable goal.

Does USF have the confidence/talent to play tight man coverage against our secondary, thus taking away the bubble screen? Also, do you think Daniels will be able to stretch our D by consistently hitting the intermediate routes? What kind of designed runs do you anticipate against FSU?

Jim: Joe Tresey is a good DC, and will likely mix up the coverage -- switching from man to zone. USF played mostly a soft zone (like a cover-2 or cover-3) during the first three games. However, the CBs have the speed to keep up with the WR's... and safety Nate Allen is a ball hawk (and potential 2nd-rounder).

Daniels has an accurate and strong arm. If Bogan, Love, Mitchell, and the rest of our WRs can get behind the FSU secondary - then Daniels can hit them.

USF runs a modified spread-option, where the QB decides at the last minute to hand off or run based on the crashing DE (this is the zone-read). USF also has specific plays with a QB run (not just QB draws). Those are probably the most unique running plays. USF has more traditional counter, off-tackle, sweep and up-the-gut runs. I would also expect an end-around or even a reverse.

Data: I'm confused by the first question. If the question is - Do we have the confidence to man against your WRs? Probably. But we have new Defensive D-Coordinators. In past years we definitely would have left our DBacks on an island and put lots of pressure on the backs. We have one NFL quality CB in Jerome Murphy, and some young guys on the other side that seem to be very good but haven't proven it on the field (Q Washington, George Baker, Kayvon Webster). Currently, when we go with a nickel package we'll see two of the three young corners instead of another safety.

Daniels has shown the ability to hit guys in stride 40 yards down the field. From a passing perspective, I expect you'll see us run the same kind of deep passing game that Miami had success with. But we'll also run a lot more 4 and 5 wides, and try spread the field to hit the 10-15 yard pass. We'll run at least 8 different receivers through the game, probably more like 10. The running game hasn't settled on a running back. I think you'll see steady but solid Mo Plancher run your basic off tackle stuff, powerful and speedy Mike Ford pound it up the middle, and lightning quick Lindsey Lamar try to run outside and catch some screen passes. Most of our running is out of the spread, but in short yardage we'll bring in two or three TEs.

Dan: Unsure about the man coverage. Our receivers are pretty big and athletic, and they play as well as they can. Daniels has smarts and I noticed he knows how to take some heat off the ball to fit the ball in the short routes, and still knows how to bomb it with surprisingly great accuracy. Not sure what Canales has up his sleeve for runs, but we are getting more and more stable at RB so I'm sure there will be some interesting things to see.

This weekend, how will your fanbase adapt to a stadium that does not serve alcohol?

Jamie Have you ever been to a game in Tampa and seen the beer prices? Our stadium basically doesn't serve alcohol either. The hardest part for the drinkers is going to be the noon kickoff. The default kickoff time at our home games is 7:00pm, and there's always a lot of kvetching when a game is moved to 12:00pm for the Big East Game of the Week slot because there's just not enough time to get a good buzz on in the parking lot.

Jim: The same way yours does. Drinking in the lot and sneaking some in.

Dan: I could be mistaken but I don't think UCF's stadium served alcohol either (even though it's a wet campus). It'll be just fine, just means people will remember more of the game, and your city will make alot more money off booze sales on Fri night and Sat morning.

Is it possible for the Bulls to have a moral victory? If USF is able to compete with Florida State and keep the game close, can it be considered a step forward for the program?

Jamie: No. Moral victories are for UCF.

Jim: Moral victories are for UCiF. (Named because "if this" or "if that" they would win...) If USF keeps it close and loses, that is a loss. Many fans not only think we can win, but almost expect it. Much like FSU fans thought about Miami on opening weekend.

Data: I don't think there would be terrible disappointment with a close loss. But only a victory would be considered a step forward. This team has already won bigger road games in the recent past against (at Auburn, at West Virginia when they were considered a NC contender). From a recruiting perspective a win over FSU would be huge. From a "We have arrived" perspective, I don't think a win at FSU would top Auburn unless FSU was undeafeated late in the year.

Dan: A moral victory would be winning on a FG or by less than 6 points. A real 'we-have-arrived' victory will be a double digit 'in-your-face' beating.

From a fan's perspective and the program's perspective, which game is more important to the Bulls, FSU or UM?

Jamie: For the fans, I think we're happy if we win one out of the two games this year, just to have that first "Big 3" win under our belt. But for the program, I think this one is more important. This goes back to the question I suggested about how many Bulls fans think FSU is most vulnerable to falling out of the "Big 3" in Florida. Miami is always going to get talent from their own back yard. Florida has national recruiting cachet and can get almost anyone they want. And USF is doing an increasingly good job retaining the talent in Tampa Bay. If the state can't support four BCS conference teams at a high level (note: we don't know this for sure yet) and one school has to take another's place, then FSU seems like the one USF would replace if they could get there. Part of that replacement process includes beating them on the field.

Jim: FSU is more important because we have four more games against UM and only one against FSU. And this is our only scheduled visit to Doak.

Data: About the same. If we go 1-1, I think we'll be happy. The two teams seem very close in talent, and we get UM at home. So I guess that would make the Miami game slightly more important. But a win over FSU would mean the Miami game is less important. If that makes sense.

Dan: They're about 50/50. UM is more important to win, because they beat us last time, and we should win at home. It's too early to know if FSU will be great this year with the rest of their schedule, and we'll know when we face UM how good they truly are. Winning at either will surely help in some way or another.

Vegas is giving USF about a 13% chance of winning this contest. What percent chance do you give yourselves winning this game?

Jamie: Before Grothe got hurt I would have said around 40%. Now I'm down around 25%. But that's about the chance I gave USF to win at Auburn, and we know how that worked out.

Jim: 50-50. Honestly.

Data: My head is telling me about 25% after the Grothe injury. But Daniels is sending out really good vibes. I know BYU is supposed to be good, but they turned the ball over a lot and our speed on defense is a lot better than theirs. My gut is telling me this team is better than the last two years, and has a greater sense of purpose. I'll go 60%.

Dan: With Grothe, I think we had a 50/50 shot at winning. With BJ, I think it may be 40-45%. Know this. This team is ready. We still have a great defense and we have a solid O-line, and our QB isn't a scrub. And we seem to have a legit kicker (you guys know ALL about that wide-right stuff ) Expect everything from us, it's only Wednesday and I bet the team is already on fire tired of hearing all the weak arguments and cheap shots being taken at them because they lost one guy.

A big thanks to TheBullsPen.com

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4