SB Nation - Marcus Sims

Morning Tomahawks 09.10.09: Christian Ponder is more team than Mickey Andrews

FSUncensored — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:49:43 -0000

Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden was a great coach and has a great legacy but begging Mickey Andrews to come back when Andrews did not want to was a mistake that is hurting the 'Noles.

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After the loss to Miami, Christian Ponder blamed himself for a pass that Jarmon Fortson should have caught. Jimbo Fisher defended Christian Ponder and blamed himself, saying he could have called a better game (despite receiving a lot of recognition for calling a fine game). But Mickey Andews, FSU's defensive coordinator whose unit gave up 476 yards, 25 1st downs, and 38 points, blamed his players lack of execution, tackling, and missing assignments. it seems that in Andrews' mind, he was flawless. And the gap between the offensive and defensive coaching staffs continues to widen. One group will be here long term. The other won't last even 6 more months. One tirelessly works to improve themselves and the program. The other selfishly tries to save their reputation and polish their resume's for their next coaching position (which for some, seems very unlikely to come). Whether or not the defensive players played poorly, Andrews' comments and actions show a lack of accountability and that lack of accountability permeates the defense. You won't hear excuses from the offense, because the offense is coached by someone who cares about the future of the program, not someone who had to be begged back so that Bobby Bowden wouldn't feel alone on his own staff. There's a legitimate concern that the offense will start to resent the defense and as a result, start to press too much, rather than just playing their own game. That's a concern that the offensive staff must guard against, but it's sad that we are even having to mention this.

Speaking of accountability, Jarmon Fortson didn't say much after the game, but FSU's Fortson practices diving catch Tallahassee Democrat: As the offensive players were walking off the field Wednesday — after their first practice since Monday night’s heartbreaking loss — there was one player who was noticeably getting a little extra work in. Sophomore Jarmon Forston was practicing the exact route he ran on the game’s final play against the Hurricanes, and the student assistant throwing the passes was keeping the ball low so Fortson had to kneel down, or dive, to catch it. Just like Monday night as well.

Lots more inside. Film review will be posted Friday morning or late tonight.

Corey Clark of the Democrat has some really good thoughts on the game. Check it out.
Christian Ponder is a special football player. He just is. I know it’s been a while since Florida State fans had complete confidence in one of their quarterbacks, but I think this kid is going to make a believer out of everyone – if he hasn’t already. It’s a shame, actually. With Jarmon Forston’s drop against Miami and Marcus Sims’ fumble into the end zone against Georgia Tech, Ponder had been denied two memorable, last-second, game-winning drives. But the guy just makes plays. The last throw was RIGHT where it had to be. Speaking of … another reason to admire Ponder. After the game when he was asked about that play, he took full responsibility. Said it was a "poor throw." I didn’t buy it. I thought he threw it exactly where he wanted to, where he needed to, and his receiver just dropped it. Jimbo Fisher agreed with me, by the way when I brought that up. Said he was supposed to keep the pass low so Fortson could cradle it and a defender’s hands couldn’t bat it away. But what kind of leadership does that show from Ponder? To take the blame, on a play like that, when it wasn’t his fault? Like I said, he’s a special player. And he was in complete control all night against the Canes.

Good article on Jacobbi McDaniel looking to play a bigger role for the Noles . You can count on that.

FSU's Pryor moving to fullback Tallahassee Democrat
Lonnie Pryor is likely to see some playing time on Saturday against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Pryor tries really hard, has a lot of talent, and really is just a good football player. He's not yet ready to be a tailback in lour scheme, so we find him other ways to get the ball.

And last but definitely not least, Jeff Cameron of 1270 The Team gets Jimbo Fisher for a weekly Series. Here is the first installment!

Discussed are Christian Ponder, Randy Shannon, adjustments, and preparation! Fisher sounds smart and he understands what other teams are doing.

Here's a good photo of the better pass protection. Christian Steps up and delivers a strike:

Chantrant.com with a nice article on the Jacksonville State QB situation.

ACC Roundtable: Pre-Season Edition

FSUncensored — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:43:30 -0000

Welcome readers of CBS Sports!

The Atlantic Coast Conference was quite the enigma in 2008. The ACC had 10 bowl teams and yet had no teams in the top 10 at seasons end. The ACC had the best non-conference performance among the BCS conferences, and yet nobody seemed to notice. Why is this?

The ACC isn't sexy. America loves sexy and in college football, offense is sexy. The ACC, on the other hand, is a defensive conference. Six of the ACC's head coaches have a background on the defensive side of the ball. Compare that to the Big 12, where only three of the head coaches have a defensive background. Head coach personalities are often reflected in the play of their teams, and that is the case with the ACC. The ACC was the best defensive conference in 2008, but again, few noticed. 5 ACC teams had a top 20 defense in 2008, and all but two had a defense in the top half of college football. No other conference came close. Wake Forest featured 4 Defensive NFL draft picks in the first 4 rounds, including the #4 overall pick in linbebacker Aaron Curry. That same Wake Forest team beat media darling Ole Miss and surprising Baylor out of conference, yet received little publicity for doing so with a 4-4 record in conference.

The ACC's style is downright boring. The majority of ACC coaches are very conservative. They punt. They play the field position game. They don't run wide-open offenses. The ACC has the lowest average margin of victory of all the major conferences. The games are all close, because all the teams are talented. There are no off-weeks in the ACC. Teams who overlook an opponent lost to that opponent more often than not. In many ways, the ACC resembles the NFL. People enjoy NFL football, but there isn't a higher-scoring alternative played on Sundays. As Tony Barnhart writes, the NFL loves the ACC. Over the last 5 years, the ACC has the most first round picks on defense.

And while the ACC plays great defense, they also have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Most don't realize the good offense being played because of the defensive nature of the conference. 4 of the first 9 draft choices last year were from the ACC and 3 of those were offensive players. The last two 1st round QB's chosen from the ACC have been big time hits (Matt Ryan and Phillip RIvers), in no small part because of the excellent defenses they faced in the ACC.

In 2009 though, the ACC might put a few more points on the scoreboard, and catch the eyes of some voters who ignored the conference last year, as more offensive-minded coaches gain control, and young quarterbacks become experienced veterans. Inside, we preview the ACC with the help of some of the best writers who cover the ACC, in this first edition of the ACC Roundtable!

We asked each writer three question sets about their team.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?
The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?
Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Atlantic Division

Boston College won the ACC Atlantic last year by virtue of a tiebreaker over FSU and Maryland.

ATLANTIC	CONF. W-L	OVERALL W-L
Florida State	5-3	9-4
Boston College*	5-3	9-5
Maryland	4-4	8-5
Wake Forest	4-4	8-5
Clemson	4-4	7-6
North Carolina State	4-4	6-7

Talk about parity! The entire Atlantic division was bowl eligible, and every team was within 1 game of playing for the conference championship. This year, things look to be slightly more spread out, as several teams seem poised to take a big step forwards or backwards.

Forget the ACC writer's picks. Let's have a look at the current vegas odds:

9/4 Florida State
7/2 Clemson
7/2 North Carolina State
6/1 Wake Forest
9/1 Maryland
21/1 Boston College

There's a wide divide between the top three and the next two, and then a huge gap between everyone and Boston College. So let's start with Boston College.

Boston College

Boston College has a new head coach in Frank Spaziani this season after their head coach (Jeff Jagodzinski) left the team to pursue NFL opportunities. Spaziani was the Eagle's excellent defensive coordinator.

In 2008, Boston College had arguably the best defense in the nation (with USC and UF having legitimate claims as well). BC had two monsters in the middle. Over 650lbs of defensive tackle tandem in B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, who would be selected in rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL draft, respectively. They also had a Butkus Award Finalist in linebacker Mark Herzlich, a certain 1st round pick had he elected to leave school. Tragically, he decided to return to school and was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer this off-season. Not many schools have three or four early round draft choice types on defense, but BC had just that in 2008, and they rode that defense to the ACC championship game. Boston College notched an incredible 26 interceptions, which led the nation. They did this by dominating 1st and 2nd down with their huge defensive line and linebacking corps, which allowed their secondary to focus almost solely on the pass. Interceptions come on 3rd and long and BC was great at forcing opposing offenses into 3rd and long. This year, BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season, and the burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that out opposing offenses in tough situations? BC hopes for the former but Vegas seems to think it is the latter.

On offense, BC was not great, but they weren't as bad as some might believe. Consider that they had to face the excellent defenses of Virgina Tech (twice), North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida State, and their numbers look a bit better. They have either the best or second-best offensive line in the ACC, led by Center Matt Tenannt and Left Tackle Anthony Costanzo, both of whom should eventually be first day draft choices. The wide receivers are experienced and are led by Rich Gunnell. The major question is quarterback, which our BC writers discuss below.

Your Boston College writers are Brian and Jeff of BC Interruption, one of the leading Boston College websites.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

BC will likely be better on the offensive side of the ball and worse on the defense side. Overall, this is probably a net loss. Unfortunately, this will show in the Eagles' final record. Notre Dame has a better chance of beating the Eagles this year (the game in South Bend). Our game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is nearly a sure loss, and it's difficult to find definite wins on our ACC schedule. A record of 9-3 (5-3 ACC) is likely a best, best case scenario with anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 a possibility. In all liklihood the Eagles won't surpass their 2008 win total.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't know if you can call it an injury per se, but obviously the biggest void for the Eagles to fill this season is in the linebacking corps with the loss of All-American Linebacker Mark Herzlich. Add to this the uncertainty of when Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin will return from tearing his Achilles back in March, and the Eagles will need newcomers to step up at linebacker. The Eagles will look to sophomores Dominick LeGrande and Will Thompson to fill the holes left by Herzlich and McLaughlin. Spaziani will likely also rotate in redshirt freshmen Alex DiSanzo and Nick Clancy as well as senior Kevin Distaso. Of that group, however, only Will Thompson has significant experience as he played behind Robert Francois. These Eagles will hopefully step up, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to completely fill the void left by Herzlich and McLaughlin.

Incumbent starting quarterback Dominique Davis leaving for academic reasons might actually be a blessing in disguise. This allowed the Eagles to go out and recruit another quarterback in Dave Shinskie, who appears to be the front-runner for the starting position. Also, where Jeff Jagodzinski and Steve Logan favored more of the duel-threat style quarterback (Davis and Tuggle), early it appears Frank Spaziani and OC Gary Tranquill favor more of the traditional, pro-style quarterback (Shinskie, Marscovetra, Rettig, Bordner).

Less importantly, it would have been nice to see WR Clarence Megwa back in pads during the Eagles opening practices, however Megwa injured his right hand and has had to sit out of practice. If Megwa can get back on the field, he will join a talented wide receiving corps that has the potential to be one of the better units in the conference (provided the starting QB can get them the ball). Still, we are glad Megwa is back and has recovered from a fairly gruesome broken leg injury suffered vs. Clemson last season. Again, if the QB can get the receivers the ball, I would expect big things from seniors Rich Gunnell, Clarence Megwa and Justin Jarvis. Hopefully, Ifeanyi Momah will step up and serve as more than a goal-line, possession receiver.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Without a doubt, the preseason focus is on the starting quarterback position. We will only go as far as our starting quarterback will take us. Right now, the candidates are trying to shake off the rust in practice as no QB has any FBS game experience.

The Eagles proved last year that they could make noise in the ACC simply by having a competent, game-managing quarterback. If David Shinskie (or Tuggle/Marscovetra) can manage the game and not lose games a la Chris Crane, the Eagles will likely live up to or slightly surpass their preseason expectations. However, the starting quarterback will have to step up their game and be even better than Crane was last season if Eagles fans expect the team to overachieve this season. There are too many questions on the defensive side of the ball this season. To overachieve, BC will have to win the games they won last year with defense (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech round 1, Florida State) with their offense.

Boston College seems to always exceed expectations. Losing their highly regarded head coach and their three best players from a season ago make Boston College a major longshot to win the division this season. Very few teams have the ability to replace the players BC lost, and the Eagles aren't in that group of teams. Bowl Eligibility should be considered a major victory for the Eagles.

Key Note: Boston College's defensive line and linebackers are 160lbs lighter this year than last year (1902 to 1742). BC was huge in the front-7 in 2008, and this is a major drop-off.

Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 ACC) BC's off-season was rather devastating and will be too much to overcome.

Maryland Terrapins

Maryland was quite the enigma in 2008. They beat bowl teams in Nevada, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Cal, yet lost to middle Tennessee State and were shut out by Virginia! They do return their quarterback a running back, but their offensive line and wide receivers are major question marks. They return just 4 starters on defense, and are switching from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, despite having a serious lack of depth along the defensive line.

Your Maryland writer is Ben Broman, of the excellent Maryland website Testudo Times:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Short version: They'll be better, but the record won't be.

There's a lot to like about Maryland this year - a game-seasoned, fifth-year senior QB; a deep, talented stable of RBs with a frontline All-ACC starter; nine (yes, nine) game-ready WRs; a likely improved secondary; and leaders returning from the linebacking corps. The new defense, instilled by former UMass head coach Don Brown, has been getting rave reviews and has torn through the offense without fail so far, utilizing surprise blitzes and press coverage. While the defensive line has been getting a bad rap in the media, the new scheme will take a lot of pressure off them, and the projected starters all either have experience or were highly touted out of HS. There's only one problem, but it's a sizable one: the offensive line. The group is talented, but very, very young, which could render all those skill players moot, particularly early on as they adapt to playing when it counts.

By the end of the year, I'm fairly confident that the line will have gelled together and the weak spots will have been shored up, meaning this team will be a bear to play late in the season. At that point, there's no doubt in my mind this year's Maryland will be better than last year's. They might even be better already. But last year's Maryland overachieved a little, winning in spite of a constant prevent defense; so while they may win head-to-head, besting 8 wins may be tough to do, especially in an improved ACC.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Injuries have been quiet in College Park this off-season. The only major player lost was probable starting DT Dion Armstrong. He left the team due to academic ineligibility and fitness problems, but no one was really counting on his presence come September (these issues had been known for awhile). He'll be replaced by redshirt freshman A.J. Francis and true freshman Zach Kerr. Both should be able to do an adequate job in filling that hole - both are as talented as Armstrong, and very underrated.

There are a few other newcomers who could contribute, notably PK Nick Ferrara, G Pete White, LBs Darin Drakeford and Avery Murray, and RBs Caleb Porzel and D.J. Adams. Ferrara is a scholarship kicker, so you'd expect him to be the starter. White is a massive, talented guard, a position that doesn't have a lot of depth. Both Drakeford and Murray enrolled in the spring to get a head start, and, because there's not a lot of depth at LB, could find themselves backups. Neither Porzel nor Adams are needed, but they're two of the most skilled and athletic players Maryland's brought in a long time, and have been impressing Ralph Friedgen in practice. Friedgen's known to be quick to burn RB redshirts, so the best of the two may see the field.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Unquestionably, the offensive line. As I've already said, they're the one huge weakness. If they can show that they're better than what people are saying, even if that only ends up being average, I'll be very confident about this team. If I had to single out one guy, I'd say LG Lamar Young - he's very talented, but reportedly has some issues with attitude, an issue a group this young doesn't need to deal with.

While he wasn't always incredibly productive, teams had to pay a ton of attention to wide receiver Darious Heyward-Bey. That won't be the case in 2009 as Bey is gone to the NFL (#7 overall choice.)

This Maryland team should take a step back. Their over/under for wins in vegas is 6, and there are 9/2 odds available if you are brave enough to project the Terps to win more than 6 games. Like Boston College, bowl eligibility should be considered a major victory for this team. They lost a bunch. The opening game at Cal is very likely to be a loss, probably of the blowout variety. They then get two very winnable games against James Madison and Middle Tennessee State, but Maryland should be big underdogs in 5 of their final 9 games. To be bowl eligible, they will need to win against Rutgers, Virginia, at Duke, & Boston College, or pull a big upset for each of those they lose.

This is Maryland, so anything crazy is possible, but poor line play on both offense and defense, combined with a lack of quality depth should keep the Terps home during Bowl Season. The Terps cannot sustain any injuries, particularly on defense. Projection: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

Wake Forest

Wake Forest had one of the best defenses in the nation last season, as profiled above. How they replace the departed defensive players and the play of their offensive line are the major issues facing the Deacons this year.

The best site for Wake Forest coverage is undoubtedly Blogger So Dear, the brainchild of Martin Rickman.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Wake Forest probably won't be better than last year, but they do have some chance. A program like Wake Forest can't replace 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round NFL draft choices on defense in one season, but they do have a 4-year starter at quarterback and stable of runningbacks. Vegas odds indicate it's very likely that Wake wins 7 games or fewer, but finishing 4-4 in conference play is doable, even if the team won't be as good, probably because of easier games against Boston College and Maryland.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Wake has been lucky this off-season and hasn't suffered any major injuries of note.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The offensive line. All five starters return from a group that was horrible last year, albeit somewhat because of injury. Wake must get their running game in order so that QB Riley Skinner doesn't have to force so many passes.

Expect Wake's defense to take a step back this season. Like Boston College, they depended largely on takeaways and those probably won't be there in the same quantity that they were last season. Only 4 starters back on defense puts extra pressure on the offense to win some early games. The game against Stanford should be particularly telling, as the Cardinal can really put up the points. If the offense can carry this team early, they have a shot to reach 8 wins. If the offense struggles, or the defense is worse than expected, Wake will be watching bowl season from their couch. Wake will likely be favored in 7 of their games, and 7 wins seems about right for this squad, as they pull off one upset and drop one game they should win, and take a minor step back from their fantastic 2008 season. Projection: 7-5, (3-5 ACC)

North Carolina State Wolfpack

The 'Pack almost had two different seasons in 2008. WIth and without quarterback Russel Wilson:

Wilson had an incredible 17-1 TD/ INT ratio last year.

via Dr. Saturday

They also were the only team in the conference that featured an offense that was significantly better than their defense (Georgia Tech an FSU also had offenses which were better than their defenses, but not close to the huge discrepancy the Wolfpack had).

With that in mind, we turn to James C. of the sarcastically named Yet Another NC State Sports Blog

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Yes, State will be better this year, and yes, it will show up in the record. The reasons are simple: a capable backup quarterback for Russell Wilson and eight home games on the schedule.

State faltered last season when forced to call upon the quarterbacks on the depth chart behind Wilson. Both Harrison Beck and Daniel Evans were turnover machines; to a person, every State fan that I've talked to knew the PapaJohns.com Bowl was over the moment it was announced Wilson wouldn't return for the second half. Forget the fact that State was up by 11...the game was over at that point.

This season should be different, however. Six-foot-six redshirt freshman QB Mike Glennon -- the best looking quarterback prospect State has had on campus since Philip Rivers -- throws a crisp ball with a quick release and, per teammates, is deceptively quick in the pocket. He's an unknown commodity at this point, but he continues to impress Tom O'Brien in practice. He's made more than one allusion to Matt Ryan when speaking of the young Glennon.

With eight home games and two games against FCS opponents (a last- second change to the schedule required picking up a second FCS opponent), State's record is almost guaranteed to be better this season. Out of conference, I see State going 3-1 against its two FCS foes and South Carolina and Pitt. Going .500 over the remaining conference slate would still put the Pack at 7-5 and into a bowl bid.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't think the ceiling for the Pack is as high as it was before losing All-Conference linebacker Nate Irving. Irving was the driving force behind State's defense last season when healthy, and he stood to be one of the league's best defenders before a car accident put him out of commission for the year. I don't know that any one player on State's roster can replace Irving, but Dwayne Maddox and Terrell Manning are two youngsters that could potentially make some noise in his place.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

State needs a running game. Bad. If Russell Wilson is to remain healthy for the full 12 games, State's running game has to step up and take some pressure off him. While the sight of Wilson scrambling is a nightmarish one for opposing defenses, it also puts the collective hearts of Wolfpack fans in their throats, hoping and praying this isn't the run that puts him out of commission for the rest of the year. So two units must step their games up in '09 -- the running backs and the offensive line. I'm a believer that everything on offense flows through the play of the OL, so if that comes together then I think everything else will fall into place. But bottom line -- State needs a two-pronged attack on offense to succeed this season.

Where I might've gotten brave in predicting nine or maybe even 10 wins prior to Irving's injury, I'm now thinking State will finish the regular season 8-4. That would be a solid step up and set the table for 2010 to be a tremendous season.

While NC State's offense was really a tale of two seasons, their defense was not. State's defense was just bad last season- definitely in the bottom half of the country. WIthout Irving, can they really be better? The signs of improvement at the end of last season were likely a product of playing two bad offenses (Wake and Duke), and two really sloppy offenses (Miami and North Carolina- combined 9 turnovers).

I applaud James for not being a homer in his evaluation and am torn between 8-4 and 7-5. There's a real chance State can start 7-0, but again, it depends on the offense taking a small step forward and the defense taking a big step forward. With Irving, I'd have said 8-4, but without Irving, I expect the 'Pack to lose 4 of their final 5 games, after starting 5-1, as they end up 7-5 (4-4 ACC).

Clemson

There are two fine Clemson websites out there for Clemson fans. First, Block-C (formerly Danny Ford is God), and ClempsonFootball.

Back on June 4th, I wrote this on why Clemson could win the Atlantic Division. It did not go over well with many 'Nole fans.

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. Clemson has 15 starters from those 3 classes. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE.

Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Clemson 2009 looks to be similar to Ole Miss 2008. In 2007, Ole Miss:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Fell way short of expectations (like Clemson)
* Fired their coach. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, Ole Miss team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line comprised almost entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

Since I wrote that, a few things have happened to Clemson. They have remained mostly healthy, and named baseball star Kyle Parker their starting quarterback. The defense should againbe among the nation's best as they return almost everyone, including maybe the Nation's best defensive line. Playing at home against FSU, getting a bye week before the 'Noles (and a de facto bye week before Georgia Tech), and getting to play UVA (2 tough games against the Coastal Division) gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

The key will come down to how Clemson plays in 4 key ACC games. @ Georgia Tech, @ Miami, v. Florida State, and @ NC State. Provided they stay healthy on the offensive line, the offense should be improved.

Projection: 9-3 (5-3 ACC).

Florida State

FSU is covered here extensively. The Seminole offense was the best in the conference last year, and the defense was above average in the conference and top 25 nationally.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

FSU should be significantly better this season, but their record might not reflect it. FSU plays the toughest schedule in the nation, per Phil Steele and numerous other sources.

Sep. 7	Miami-FL	8, ESPN
Sep. 12	Jacksonville St.	6, ESPN360.com
Sep. 19	at BYU	7, VERSUS
Sep. 26	South Florida	TBA
Oct. 3	at Boston College	TBA
Oct. 10	Georgia Tech	TBA
Oct. 22	at North Carolina	8, ESPN
Oct. 31	NC State	TBA
Nov. 7	at Clemson	TBA
Nov. 14	at Wake Forest	TBA
Nov. 21	Maryland	TBA
Nov. 28	at Florida	3:30, CBS

It's doubtful any team would run through that slate unscathed, including the National Championship favorites. The 2009 FSU team would likely win 1 or 2 more games against last year's schedule. Against this current schedule, it is anyone's guess.

FSU lost fullbacks Seddrick Holloway and Marcus Sims to attrition, but neither projected to be a serious contributor as FSU moves to more two tight-end sets and away from the fullback.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The interior of the defensive line. FSU's run defense was horrible last season.

The defense cannot allow opposing offenses to hold onto the ball forever like some did last season. Getting the ball back to the offense will be key for FSU, as the offense will wear out opposing defenses.

Projection: FSU goes 9-3, 6-2 in the ACC, losing to UF, Clemson, and one other team in conference.

Coastal Division

Vegas says 4 teams have a legit shot to win this division: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. Duke and Virginia do not and neither have a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.

Let's start in reverse order, with VTech up first.

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech won the ACC last year and have won the Coastal division for almost every year it has existed. We have two ACC writers: GobblerCountry and College Game Balls. Take it away boys:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

GC: We'll be better and it will show in our record. He people over-hyping the Hokies this preseason forget that they're a team that lost four games last season. Tech may not win the ACC this year, but they won't lose four regular season games, either.

The talent on the offense has improved by leaps and bounds. It's just up to our offensive coordinator to utilize that talent. Other than quarterback, I think this team has better talent across the board than the 1999 team. But that team had a true difference-maker at quarterback.

If Tyrod Taylor turns into anything resembling a difference-maker, we'll be a special team.

CGB: If we aren't better, then I want my proverbial money back. 2008 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Hokies and lo and behold we win ten games (again), the ACC and the Orange Bowl. The only key players missing from ‘08 in ‘09 are DE Orion Martin, CB Macho Harris, LBs Purnell Sturdivant, Brent Warren and sigh QB Sean Glennon. With Bud Foster in charge I have faith we'll be able to overcome the losses on defense and the offense will be able to do more than enough to win ACC games.

As for our record, I am calling for us to win 11 games which is one better than last year. That's assuming we make it to and win the ACC Championship. That's why our trip to Atlanta is so crucial. And I'm not talking about the game versus Alabama, but our return trip against Georgia Tech. That's the must win game on our schedule.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

GC: We lost our returning leading rusher, battering ram and bell cow in Darren Evans. Without him, the Hokies no longer have someone they can rely on in short-yardage situations.

The newcomers expected to have an impact are led by Ryan Williams, who I expect to get the bulk of the carries by the middle of the season. Williams' debut is the most anticipated by Hokie fans since that of Kevin Jones. He's supposed to be a home run hitter who can break any play for six points.

CGB: As far as the Hokies are concerned these two questions go hand-in-hand. At the beginning of camp Darren Evans, our only returning running back with any major carries, tore his ACL and was zonked for the year. Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Josh Oglesby and Tony Gregory are grinding it out in camp to see who is going to carry the rock come Bama time. They have a whopping 38 collegiate carries among them, 100% belonging to practice-killa-game-chilla Oglesby.

Williams and Wilson are the big play threats missing from the backfield over the past couple of seasons and because of the hype surrounding their recruitment most Hokies want to see them leading the ground attack. So far replacing Evans has gone as well as filling out a TPS Report. Williams is a me-ist and Oglesby and Wilson suffered their own nagging injuries. Ultimately, they'll get their yards but none of these guys are going to punish defenses like Evans did.

Both Sergio Render (Phil Steele #1 guard) and Jason Worilds (Preseason ACC 1st Team) had off-season shoulder surgery that forced them to miss spring ball. They're both healthy and practicing, but worth keeping an eye on.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

GC: Just like every other year for the Hokies, it's the offensive line. They gave up the more sacks than any other ACC team even though they had a mobile quarterback under center for most of their games. The run blocking came along by the end of last year when Tech rolled up big rushing numbers against BC and Cincinnati. Hopefully that momentum can continue into 2009 and we can get better pass blocking.

CGB: Tyrod Taylor, our young but seasoned receivers Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts, our offensive line, whoever replaces Darren Evans at running back and finally the entire offensive coaching staff Billy Hite, Curt Newsome and Bryan Stinespring need to get their act in check if we are going to make some national noise. Yes I am that frustrated with our offense over the last four seasons. The only offensive player I left off the list is TE Greg Boone because he catches balls, knocks defenders on their butt and takes snaps out of the Wild Turkey. He does it all excellently and if necessary he should be called on to gain our tough yards.

Projection: 9-3 (6-2 ACC). The Hokies hopes for a national title are unrealistic. They are in the group of very good but not elite ACC teams. They'll be recognized as the best ACC team, but that's because of their schedule- they avoid FSU and Clemson (the Atlantic's two best teams), and their road games are @ Duke, @ East Carolina, @ Maryland, and @ Virginia (only one of those teams should make a bowl game). Virginia Tech isn't significantly better than abut 4 other ACC teams, but their ACC schedule is far and away the easiest of any ACC team, with all of their tough games coming at home (except Georgia Tech).

Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

Georgia Tech surprised everyone last year under new Head Coach Paul Johnson. They have an excellent offensive attack that forces the defense to be very disciplined and defend every inch of the field. This is a team that put up 40+ on Georgia and 30+ on a number of other good defenses.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Your writers are Winfield Featherson, Bird, and Dane, of From The Rumble Seat

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Our team will definitely be better in all aspects offensively - QB play, running backs, wide receivers, and line play. Historically, Paul Johnson's teams always increase their production in both the passing and the running game during his second year as head coach. Our defense will have a gaping hole on the defensive line (except for standout end Derrick Morgan) but it will be greatly strengthened by a strong corps of linebackers and a veteran secondary.

Despite improvements in all positions minus the D-line, the ACC makes for a helluva conference slate alongside three SEC OOC games. It's possible that GT's record may not improve on last year's 9 wins but the team will improve by leaps and bounds. However, anything short of 9 wins would be a big disappointment for a majority of the optimistic Yellow Jacket faithful.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

First off, a majority of our injuries were minor and not season-threatening. The major set back was obviously Jaybo Shaw, our competent backup to Josh Nesbitt. He'll be succeeded by a lot of raw redshirt and true freshmen if CPJ decides to put a medical redshirt on Shaw. Roddie Jones' wrist injury set him back as far as contact drills go but it shouldn't limit his playing time and overall effectiveness. And hopefully all of our LB's will be good as gold come Jacksonville State though Kyle Jackson continues to have problems with his foot.

The best newcomer is definitely going to be Jarrard Tarrant. He had his assault charges dropped against him in February that kept him off the 2008 squad. Tarrant brings speed to the secondary and competency at punt returns - a HUGE PROBLEM for GT since Gailey's tenure. Look for Tarrant to play a key role on defense and in the field position battle.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

With Jaybo Shaw out, Tevin Washington and David Sims must prove themselves as comparable backups. This will be trial by fire as they will certainly be used in games. The kicking game, though minor in Paul Johnson's system, must stay strong. Scott Blair will probably be limited to only PAT's which will keep his leg from dying half way through the season. Various questions also surround our defensive line as we lost multiple players to the NFL.

Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC). GTech's schedule is very tough, with road games at Miami and Florida State. 9-3 would not surprise me.

Miami Hurricanes

A young Miami team went 7-6 last season behind an emerging offense and a poor defense. They then fired their offensive coordinator. Go figure. See the diagram above (under FSU) and look at how bad Miami's run defense was. Allowing 5 yards per rush attempt won't win many games. If Miami is to contend for the coastal division championship, they must shore up their run defense issues.

On offense, Miami has new coordinator Mark Wjipple, who will run a pro-style offense with lots of passes to the tight ends and running backs, QB Jacorry Harriss, RB's Cooper and James, and a ton of talented receivers including Aldarious Johnson and LaRon Byrd. Miami's only question on offense is their offensive line, which played poorly in 2008. If they are better, Miami will challenge FSU and Georgia Tech for the conference's top offense (and possibly for the division).

Unlike Virginia Tech, Miami plays both Clemson and FSU. They also play Oklahoma. But Miami is also very talented and if they beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, they have a shot at the division. Prediction: Miami will be a better team in 2009, but their record will again be 7-5 (4-4 ACC) due to a tough schedule.

For much more in-depth canes coverage, visit 7thFloorBlog.com

North Carolia Tarheels

North Carolina is doing a great rebuilding job under Butch Davis, who is bringing renewed energy to Chapel Hill, along with a big increase in talent.

On offense, Carolina lost all of their receivers (including two NFL guys), and their offensive line is very shaky. They go return their quarterback in T.J. Yates and a variety of solid runners, led by Shawn Droughn. Can they replace their lost wide receivers? Doubtful, but if the O-Line gels quickly they could use their running game to make up the difference.

Carolina had one of the better defenses in the nation last year, and should again excel on that side of the ball. They boast a huge front-7 which is excellent at stopping the run, allowing the secondary to play the pass.

Projection: 8-4 (4-4 ACC) UNC runs their weak non-conference slate with easy, wins at home against Duke and Virginia, and taking two of: @ GTech, FSU, @ Virginia Tech, Miami, @ Boston College, and @ NCST.

Virginia

Your writer is Brendan of From Old Virginia. Take it away, Brendan:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.

But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.

None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.

As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers (original question posed was poorly phrased), and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.

On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.

I expect UVA to narrowly miss out on a bowl game, going 5-7 (2-6 ACC). If they spring an upset against TCU, Maryland, or Georgia Tech, the Cavs will be bowling. But that also assumes they don't have any letdowns, which is probably unrealistic, so 5-7 it is.

Duke

The Blue Devils lost a ton from the surprising 2008 team. No team lost more letterman than Duke. Duke should continue to have one of the worst offenses in the country, and will be horrible running the ball. The defense should be slightly below average, which for Duke, is acceptable. Prediction: 2-10 (0-8). This is a major rebuilding year for Duke despite the recognizeable name at quarterback.

General ACC

Brandon Rink-On of http://ontheb-rink.com/blog answered the questions for us from a different perspective. Enjoy:

Every team believes they are a little better going into the season, but who will make the most improvement from season-to-season this year in the ACC? Georgia Tech? I don't know-last season was pretty good for
them. Clemson? Well, there are just too many unknowns there. My pick is Miami. They were a lot better team than they showed(or were coached) last season and should be more impressive this season. The
Canes will be led by a nasty defense that will wreak havoc on the Coastal. And the new offensive scheme has to be better than whatever their previous OC Turner was doing(which was?).

In the record, it will not quite translate into a division title, but they will be in contention(which is more than you can say for the last few years).

Virginia Tech is an easy one with the loss of one Darren Evans and key newcomer in Ryan Williams, but another team has caught my eye in the offseason. Let's say my team is Clemson, they lose two offensive
lineman, Barry Humphries to transfer and J.K. Jay to a back injury, and have a couple guys dinged up like their only real returning WR in Jacoby Ford. The starting five on the line is pretty solid for the Tigers, but

Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Offensive Backfield

FrankDNole — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:13:48 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, and the Secondary will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Offensive Backfield, to determine if this unit has progressed, expected to continue at the same level, or regressed, in comparison to last years backfield unit.

First the obvious. Florida State’s offense will only go as far as it’s backfield takes them because everything rest on that units shoulders. Speaking of the offense, here are some tidbits you may find interesting, uplifting, and/or depressing.

A) With eight starters returning, the offense returns the most starters since the 2004 season when nine returned. That was the last season the Seminoles won 10 games.

2) Players responsible for 71% of Florida State’s points in 2008 will not be back in 2009. That is the lowest number of returning points in the conference.

D) The ACC’s top two scorers in 2008 were both Seminoles, Antone Smithe and Graham Gano, and neither is back this season.

5) The Seminoles finished the year ranked first in scoring offense and second in total offense and rushing offense in the ACC.

L) FSU’s rushing offense improved from 91st in the nation in 2007 to 33rd last season. That was the ninth best improvement of any BSC school.

Here are some of my biggest question regarding the backfield as we get ready to start the 2-a-days this Friday.

Will Christian Ponder throw crisp and accurate spirals, proving he's gotten better this year with the experience he gained by starting every game last year?

Will he follow up with a more consistent performance?

Or will he be hearing the crowd chanting "EJ, EJ", which will surely come if he fails to deliver?

Will Jermaine Thomas be able to maintain the incredible 7.0 yard average from last year as the feature back, and stay healthy while taking the pounding that comes with being a feature back?

Will he put together a breakout season where he establishes himself as one of the ACC’s elite workhorse backs?

Or will Jimbo Fisher decide to make the tailback position a position by committee, and split playing time between Thomas, Ty Jones, and Tavares Pressley?

Before we get into the specifics of the positions in the backfield unit, if you haven’t already read these two very interesting perspectives by missourinole, I encourage you to do so. In both of his stories, What So Great About Ponder? and Jermaine Thomas: The Next Warrick Dunn? he presents some very good analytical comparisons with past FSU greats, and you the TN members told him how you felt. Some of the issues addressed in his stories might seem redundant here today, but the performance of these two positions will dictate what kind of season we will have, and how we will be talking about it come January.

QUARTERBACKS, TAILBACKS & FULLBACKS

2008 QUARTERBACK=Christian Ponder started all 13 games. His stats for last year were: EFF=115.0, PA=318, PC=177, YDS=2006, PCT=.557, TD=14, INT=13, LNG=54, AVG/GM=154.3, RA=119, YDS=597, LOSS=174, NET=423, AVG=3.6, TD=4, LNG=45, AVG/GM=32.5 (Total Offense=423R + 2006P = 2429 or 186.8 AVG/GM).

Ponder was backed up by D’Vontrey Richardson and Drew Weatherford who are both gone.

Christian Ponder had one of the best seasons in school history for a quarterback when it came to the ground game. The sophomore rushed for 423 yards finishing with the fourth-highest single season rushing total by a QB in school history. However in recent history since 1950, only Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward rushed for more yards in one season than Ponder did in 2008 and he is just the fourth FSU QB to ever score a rushing touchdown in four consecutive games. Ponder completed passes to seven or more receivers in seven of 13 games in 2008, and he hit eight or more receivers with a pass four times.

2009 PROJECTED QUARTERBACK=Christian Ponder. Redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel will back up Ponder but has not thrown a pass in a collegiate game up to this point. Even though Manuel did not see any action in 2008, he was instrumental to the team’s success earning scout team MVP for the offense.

2008 TAILBACK=Antone Smith started all 13 games. His stats for last year were: RA=177, YDS=868, LOSS=76, NET=792, AVG=4.5, TD=15, LNG=60, AVG/GM=60.9

Replacing Antone Smith’s 177 carries and 15 rushing touchdown’s is the top priority for the Seminoles this season. If you remove quarterbacks from the equation, Smith’s 117 carries accounted for almost 55% of all the running plays by the Seminoles in 2008.

2009 PROJECTED TAILBACK=Jermaine Thomas is the projected starter with Ty Jones and Tavares Pressley expected to give him breathers.

Jermaine Thomas had a breakout season as a true freshman averaging 7.0 yards per carry on 69 attempts. Thomas finished behind only Sean Jackson and Warrick Dunn in Seminole history for yards per carry by a true freshman. He also had the sixth-best true freshman season in school history for rushing yards. One of Thomas’ greatest strengths in 2008 was his ability to make positive yards on almost every touch. The freshman lost only 10 yards rushing all year.

Carlton "Ty" Jones, a true freshman running back showed flashes of brilliance throughout the 2008 season but was slowed by an ankle injury most of the year. He showed what he was capable of in the Champs Sports Bowl when he rushed four times for 55 yards including a TD. His average of almost 14 yards per carry was more than six times better than any other FSU running back in that game. That final game of the 2008 season illustrated just how good he can be in a backfield with fellow freshman standout Jermaine Thomas. He also had a career high run of 30 yards in the first game of his collegiate career against Western Carolina.

Tavares Pressley was redshirted in 2008 after suffering an ACL injury in his left knee, but most recent reports indicate he will be ready to go this season. After a few days of practice, we should have a better idea of his prognosis.

2008 FULLBACK=Marcus Sims started 4 games and Sederick Holloway started 2. Sims has transferred and apparently Holloway is no longer on the team.

2009 PROJECTED FULLBACK=NONE. Apparently we will not be using a true fullback this year. Matt Dunham has rejoined the team but is expected to be used more in a H-Back role, similar to a smaller pass catching tight end.

OTHERS WHO CONTRIBUTED IN THE 2008 BACKFIELD AND ARE NOW GONE=D’Vo Richardson (RA=35, YDS=288, LOSS=34, NET=254, AVG=7.3, TD=3, LNG=55, AVG/GM=25.4, PASS EFF=121.27, PA=44, PC=23, YDS=315, PCT=.523, TD=3, INT=3, LNG=39, AVG/GM=31.5).

Drew Weatherford and Preston Parker also contributed and are also gone.

OTHERS WHO MAY CONTRIBUTE IN 2009=Lonnie Pryor (RB), Chris Thompson (RB), Corey Eddinger (QB), Will Secord (QB)

So there you have it. Considering this will be Ponder's second season running the Seminole's offense, it's likely we could see improvements made considering he'll have a better understanding of Jimbo Fisher’s offense, and his available weaponry. Manuel should also be better considering he too has had a full season in this offense under his belt.

The running game should have a much improved offensive line, so maybe that will improve their deceiving production of 4.8 yards per carry in 2008. I say deceiving because many of the long runs which inflated this average, were runs by the QB’s, which hopefully will not come down to that again this year.

Again, a lot rests on this groups shoulders. If the Seminoles receive favorable answers to those questions I posed above, Florida State will win the ACC’s Atlantic Division, will be playing in the ACC Championship Game come December while continuing the nations longest streak of Bowl appearances with 28 consecutive bowls, in what hopefully will be the Orange Bowl, at least.

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE OFFENSIVE BACKFIELD=PROGRESSION

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Poll

2009 FSU OFFENSIVE BACKFIELD-PROGRESSION, CONTINUATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Thursday August 6 at 11:55 PM.

PROGRESSION

189 votes

CONTINUATION

3 votes

REGRESSION

4 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

Progression, Stagnation, or Regression? Wide Receivers and Tight End

FrankDNole — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:11:11 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

In the first part of this series, we analyzed the Defensive Line. Today we will take a look at the Wide Receivers and Tight Ends to determine if this unit has progressed, is stagnant, or has regressed in comparison to last years group.

Even though Jimbo Fisher and WR Coach Lawrence Dawsey have already released the preliminary and projected depth chart, I am willing to bet that if you were to talk to either one privately and off the record, neither one really knows who our top receivers will be this season.

I will not, and I do not think any of us need to beat a dead horse any longer by rehashing the fiasco that was our WR corps last season. Therefore, I will ignore the logistic nightmares that this group caused the coaches and their teammates with their "issues", and only present what they accomplished when they were actually allowed to be on the field and allowed to participate.

While it seems that the coaches have a laundry list of players available to put into game situations this year, none of those players have yet earned a reputation or can be considered a pass catching weapon that will really scare any of the opposing defenses. Will this be a problem that could affect the running game?

Last seasons lack of a deep passing game (other than the occasional jump ball downfield) along with the poor pass blocking have been very well documented here, and is something most of our regular TN readers are all too familiar with. While these two factors did contribute to an inadequate passing game, much of the blame also lies with the receivers running lazy and sloppy routes, they lacked clean and crisp cuts, and had a high number of dropped passes during the ‘08 campaign. Relying only on my memory and without any research to back this up, I believe our passing game’s bread and butter consisted of the WR or bubble screen. Fortunately we had above average down field blocking that created some very nice gains and kept us competitive in many close games.

Here are a couple of interesting (sad?) tidbits.

A) Three out of the top five wide outs from last season, Greg Carr, Preston Parker, and Corey Surrency are no longer on the team and the third most productive receiver, Taiwan Easterling missed all of the spring drills with a ruptured Achilles. He is apparently recovering nicely and ahead of schedule and may be ready by the first game. The first few weeks of practice will be very telling as to his recovery and his potential to play. Of the 174 passes caught by receivers in 2008, players responsible for 91 of those receptions are gone, and 30 (Easterling) are questionable.

2) Outside of Bert Reed’s 23 catches, not a single receiver on the roster caught more than 20 passes in 2008 and only one (Rod Owens) caught 10 or more.

D) FSU should get a boost with the return of redshirt senior Richard Goodman who caught 20 passes as a junior in 2007, and now has his legal problems behind him, but who must still serve his music suspension.

Last year the tight ends were once again not a factor in the passing game since they had to stay at home to help with the pass protection, thus eliminating another receiving threat and allowing the defense to either double up on a WR, or send another defender to rush and to pressure our QB. When this last scenario occurred the blocking TE, usually Caz, was very often cancelled out by the extra pass rusher and in many cases, the QB did not have time to look at his first, much less his second read.

Caz was basically playing as an extra lineman more than a receiver to help a young and inexperienced offensive line. On top of that, the Seminoles’ other two tight ends were both true freshmen. Despite his decent work as a blocker, Piurowski still established single-season career highs for catches (8), yards (83) and touchdowns (1). For the second time in the last three years, Piurowski averaged over 10 yards a reception in 2008. Bo Reliford and Ja’Baris Little combined for just one catch in their true freshman seasons. The bottom line though, our TE’s only caught a total of 9 passes all season.

Jimbo has said on several occasions during this off season that the tight end WILL be a factor in the passing game this year. If he keeps his word, Ponder will have two different 6'7" targets that can release a few moments after, or at the snap, find a seam in the secondary, and do what opposing teams have been doing to us for longer than I care to remember. Also, if Jimbo keeps his word, our defense will be forced to cover the TE during practices, and maybe this will teach them that the TE is indeed a eligible receiver in football (but I digress and this will be covered at a later date).

Once again just as in the previous story, we realize we lost some very good individual talent. I ask that you please remember that we want to try to look at the unit as a whole when you finally do vote, as to whether this collective unit has progressed, has remained stagnant, or has regressed, compared to last years unit.

OK now we will compare the two groups of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends.

2008 X WR=Greg Carr started 12 games and Jarmon Forston started 1 against Chattanooga. Carr is gone (Rec=39, Yds=542, Avg=13.9, TD=4, Avg/Gm=41.7).

2009 PROJECTED X WR=Bert Reed and Avis Commack

2008 Y WR (Slot)=Taiwan Easterling started 8 games, Ja’Baris Little (TE) started one, and Marcus Sims (FB) started 4 games.

2009 PROJECTED Y WR=Taiwan Easterling and Louis Givens

2008 Z WR=Preston Parker started 8 games, Rod Owens started 3, Corey Surrency started 1, and Bert Reed started 1 game. Parker (Rec=40, Yds=372, Avg=9.3, TD=2, Avg/Gm=37.2) and Surrency (Rec=12, Yds=237, Avg=19.8, TD=4, Avg/Gm=21.5) are both gone.

2009 PROJECTED Z WR=Jarmon Forston, Richard Goodman (Suspended first 3 or 4 games), and Rod Owens

2008 TIGHT END=Caz Piurowski started 9 games, Josh Dobbie started 2, Preston Parker (WR) started 1, and Corey Surrency (WR) started 1.

2009 PROJECTED TIGHT END=Caz Piurowski, Beau Reliford, and Ja’Baris Little.

OTHERS WHO CONTRIBUTED IN 2008 AND ARE NOW GONE=Corey Surrency (probably one of the best downfield blocking WR I have seen since Anquan Boldin).

OTHERS WHO MAY CONTRIBUTE IN 2009=Cameron Wade, Matt Dunham will play more of a H-Back role (think smaller pass catching tight end), Josh Gehres, Timothy Orange, Ashuwa Richardson, Willie Haulstead, Rodney Smith

Well there you have it. I guess the real question is not if Carr, Parker, and Surrency can be replaced, but whether their replacements will be able to make up the 10 TD’s, the 91 Rec’s, and the over 100 yards per game that left with them, and are no longer available to us. The question is whether any of the receivers will be able to provide the down field blocking that Surrency and Parker (sometimes) provided. The question is whether Easterling will return to close to 100% of his former self. The question is whether Fisher will keep his word and finally throw to one of the TE’s as promised, at least 3 or 4 times a game.

I believe these are a lot of obstacles to overcome. I also believe that we have heard the last of our WR "issues" and this will provide Ponder with the stability at WR which was so desperately missing last year. Things got so bad that we had TE’s and FB's starting games at WR, and WR's starting at TE, which I believe is something that is now behind us and in the past. I believe Easterling will be close to his old self. And finally, I believe Jimbo will make the TE’s a integral part of the offense like we have not seen in many years, because our OL should be much improved in their pass blocking to where Caz or Beau can finally be utilized as receivers.

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT END=PROGRESSION.

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Now with the defensive line, receivers and tight ends out of the way, please stay tuned for the linebackers, secondary, backfield, offensive line, and special teams.

Poll

2009 FSU WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT END-PROGRESSION, STAGNATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Sunday August 2 at 7:00 PM

PROGRESSION

181 votes

STAGNATION

73 votes

REGRESSION

52 votes

306 votes | Poll has closed

Game Log Positional Breakdown: RBs. A Database of Running Stats and Analysis.

SWFLNole. — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 22:53:56 -0000

It is no secret that Florida State plans to run the ball a lot this year. The offensive line under Rick Trickett is much better at run blocking than pass blocking. Also, keeping the other team off the field will help our questionable defense. Many Seminole fans are very excited about the RBs at Florida State. Although Antone Smith averaged a decent 4.5 YPC, many noticed that he was tackled easily, and that Jermaine Thomas hit holes harder. In one of the more popular Fanposts in a while MissouriNole pondered statistically if Thomas is the next Warrick Dunn.

Recently I read this fantastic article from Smartfootball, which opened my mind a little to evaluating the RB position. It is an excellent piece.

Keep reading because behind the jump you get to see how I went through every game log last year to break down our backfield...

So that article by Chris over at Smartfootball shows that regardless of YPC the median yards gained by a back are usually about the same (Note: Median numbers are often more reliable because it helps to eliminate the effect of outliers). While that is true in the homogenous NFL, the difference between RBs in college football is often greater. However the fact is still true, the medians will almost always be very close. This leads to two conclusions about the evaluation of RBs. (1) That players who can create homerun carries for large chunks of yards are much more valuable than those that cannot; and (2) that evaluating only on yards gained and yards lost is a little misleading because yards lost may not be as important as some researchers have led on. I personally do not know the perfect way to evaluate these players, but I believe that if you can get ALL of the statistics that matter, the picture becomes a little clearer.

For this article I am going to list all of the statistics for the 3 primary RBs who played last year, and try to draw some inferences about what this means for our team this year. I went through all of the Division 1A game logs from last season (because as much as I appreciate the fun of beating Chattanooga, the stats don't really tell us anything because of the poor competition level) to find this info.

One statistic some of you may not be fully comfortable with at this point is Success Rate. The fine people over at Football Outsiders developed it to measure success of plays for RBs. Obviously, if it is 3rd and 1 and you get 2 yards, it is much more valuable than if you get 2 yards on 1st and 10. Success Rate is the amount of "hits" a back gets out of their total carries. A "hit" is earned by gaining 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, or 100% or yards needed on 3rd or 4th down. Let's get going, shall we?

Antone Smith:

-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-2,-2,-2,-2,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-4,-5,-5-6,-7,-9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,

2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,5,5,

5,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,9,9.10,10,10,

10,11,11,11,12,12,13,15,18,19,20,20,26,27,39,41,60

Carries	Success Rate (%)
155 Carries	1st Down 32.3%
Median Carry: 2 Yards	2nd Down: 41.5%
Average Carry: 3.3 Yards	3rd/ 4th Down: 75%
16.8% Negative Carries	Total: 38.7%
599 Yards Gaines
84 Yards Lost

Jermaine Thomas:

-3,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,6,7,7,7,8,8,10,10,

11,11,12,12,12,13,21,22,30,62--10.6% negative runs

Carries	Success Rate (%)
47 Carries	1st Down 38.4%
Median Carry: 4 Yards	2nd Down: 66.6%%
Average Carry: 6.6 Yards	3rd/ 4th Down: 100%
10.6 % Negative Carries	Total: 55.3%
320 Yards Ganed
7 Yards Lost

Marcus Sims:

-2,-1,0,0,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,5,5,6,7,15--8.6% negative runs

Carries	Success Rate (%)
23 Carries	1st Down 33.3%
Median Carry: 2 Yards	2nd Down: 44.4%%
Average Carry: 2.8 Yards	3rd/ 4th Down: 60%
8.6 % Negative Carries	Total: 43.4%
67 Yards Ganed
3 Yards Lost

Ok so first things first, the sample for Marcus Sims is obviously very small, so they should be taken with a caveat. However they do show you some things about how he was deployed, and how well he ran the ball when he was. He very rarely lost yards.However the good late down success rate can be deceiving, because he was put into the game in manageble situations. You can see by his median run, average, and carry log that he wasn't extremely effective. The 2nd and short, and occasional break for a gassed starter, role can be filled well by Tavares Pressley.

When talking about the starters the first thing that pops out to me is that Antone Smith's average drops from a decent 4.5 YPC on the season to a paltry 3.3 against D1 opponents. Also Antone was rarely putting his team into great situations, because he has a median run of just 2 yards and 26 negative plays for 84 yards.

The opposite is true of Jermaine Thomas. Thomas' average stays at a healthy 6.6 YPC against the better teams (7.0 on the season). Beyond that, and we have talked about it before, is the fact that Thomas doesn't go backward. The result is that Jermaine sports a very nice 4 yard median run, double that of Antone Smith.

One thing becomes strikingly clear. Jermaine Thomas is in almost every single way possible superior to Antone Smith. Our coaches were playing them backwards last year. From the starting RB position a team should be able to rely upon that person to put the team in positive situations on first and second down more often than not. Jermaine does this. A change of pace back should offer something different than the starter, such as being a homerun threat. Smith absolutely was that with 7 runs over 20 yards, 5 for touchdowns. Antone's numbers here do get a little undersold because of the homerun ability, but is anyone here sold that for 4-5 touches a game Chris Thompson can't offer the same type of big play ability? I went into this article hoping to do two things.The first is provide Nole fans with a one stop shop for running stats from last year, so they have a comparison model. The other was to find out more about our backfield, an exploratory study of the game logs if you will. What I came away with was a fundamental belief that our running game is going to be even better than I thought it was going to be yesterday.

Additional support for the Thomas being better than Smith crowd comes from the true experts. Bill Connelly, of RockMNation.com (Missouri CBS Sports and SBNation site) and Varsity Numbers (footballoutsiders.com) recently introduced Points Over Expected (POE). This is arguably the best and most advanced measure of a runningback, independent of his offensive line, available to the college fan. Please visit that link and be blown away.

I asked Bill to provide me with the numbers for FSU's backs. He gladly obliged.

	EqPts	Expected EqPts	PPP+ (Explosiveness)	POE
Smith	66.4	55.6	119.3	+ 10.8 (45th Nationally)
Thomas	30.1	23.4	120.90	+6.8 (72nd Nationally)

So there's your answer. Smith was better. So was Thomas. Actually, I'd give the edge to Thomas with the better PPP+, but Smith had almost 3x more carries. Maybe Thomas' production would have gone down with a lot more carries, but he did have the edge.

I'll add that Thomas got a large number of carries against good defenses and didn't simply beat up on bad teams like some backups do.

Finally, because Ty Jones (or C.Jones on the game logs to confuse me) will be a big factor in our running game as well I will post his stats, however, they have almost no statistical significance at all because of the small sample size. They are pretty to look at though, and dream.

Ty Jones: -1,1,1,2,5,5,14,15,31 --11.1% negative plays

Carries	Success Rate (%)
9 Carries
Median Carry: 5 Yards
Average Carry: 8.1 Yards
11.1 % Negative Carries	Total: 55%
73 Yards Ganed
1 Yards Lost

Monday Morning Tomahawks: Wednesday 07.01.09 Freshmen Workout Edition!

FSUncensored — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:30:12 -0000

Welcome to July! We have a lot of exciting things coming for you as there only 69 days till Florida State takes on Miami... and Hurricanes don't hit Tallahassee anymore. We will probably have about 100 articles in the remaining offseason. For now though, let's get caught up on some 'Nole News.

Important Dates

Jul. 18- Seminole Showtime- BE THERE FANS.
Aug. 6 - players report
Aug. 7 - first day of preseason practice
Aug. 9 - media day (which is also traditionally fan day)
Aug. 10 - first day of full contact practice

Orlando Sentinel - Easterling's recovery a positive for maligned FSU receivers
After one day of watching Easterling, Stroud isn’t doubting that he will play in the season-opener against Miami. "No question," Stroud said. "After what I saw today, there’s no question he’ll be back." His rehab is going better than anyone could have expected. My enthusiasm is slightly tempered, but this is really encouraging. You'll remember that our resident pediatrician and amazing writer TrueCubbie wrote: Inside the Treatment Room: Taiwan Easterling and his Achilles. I suggest reading that.

MORE INSIDE!

Scouting the 2009 Football Opponents

If you didn't know, we have designated a specific page to post information about our opponents. This helps us to write better previews and helps keep you abreast of our opponent's programs. Currently, there are a lot of links in the comment section that will be added to the main page. I've been slacking on that but it will happen soon. Of note are some recent items:

Nate Irving of NCST, the ACC's best linebacker after Marrk Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer, was in a big car wreck. Broken leg and collapsed lung. He might be back by midseason but it's very much up in the air.
The Quad Countdown: No. 69 Wake Forest - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com Wake Forest must rebuild much of its defense after losing two first-day N.F.L. draft picks in Aaron Curry and Alphonso Smith- only three starters return. They will have to depend on an offense that has floundered over the past few years.
FlexBoner!!! Numerous sites break down Georgia Tech's flexbone offense. OTHER PEOPLE’S RIVALRIES AND THE FUTILITY OF DEFENDING AGAINST THE WISHBONE " The Birddog Fundamentally, the mechanics of your basic triple option play are the same whether you’re running it out of the wishbone, I-formation, spread, or whatever. Each of these formations, however, imply different overall philosophies. The underlying theme of the wishbone– bringing blockers to the point of attack to support a power running game– is very different than that of the spread. In the spread, you want to stretch the defense, both vertically and from sideline to sideline, in order to create running lanes. You might think these are just platitudes, but they aren’t; this difference, coupled with the threat of the pass, is why wishbone defenses don’t work against the spread option. The spread allows an offensive coordinator to use a greater variety of formations in order to create the space he wants for his ballcarriers. Smart Football: Why you can't just play "assignment football" against the flexbone/triple-option That term gets thrown around by announcers a lot, with the implication being that all you have to do is "assign" one guy to the dive back, one to the quarterback, and one to the pitch back. The problem is that Johnson will figure out your assignments and change his blocking schemes accordingly. For example...
Luckily, one of our writers is a state championship Flexbone offensive coordinator who has studies Johnson extensively. He will be breaking down PJ's offense as well.

I'm really glad I didn't write the previews for our opponents yet. As offseason injuries mount, it makes more and more sense to hold off on the previews until the last minute.

Florida State Football Summer Conditioning - FLORIDA STATE OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
The guys were back on the field yesterday and a few of our guys went out to watch. 100+ photos of the new freshmen! And a video of Ponder mastering his coach speak. Check out that link! Some notes from what I gathered:

Jacobbi McDaniel looks huge. I heard he weighed in at 295lbs. He's a bit softer than the coches want right now (it's not all good weight), but if he can get down to a solid 286-287ish, he'll be the rare freshman defensive tackle to make an impact.
DeMonte McAllister (ladies man, lock city), has a huge frame and he is not filled out. He can get a lot bigger. He has big arms right now, but his legs have room to grow and grow.
Jarmon Fortson, Nigel Bradham, and Tavares Pressley are extremely well put together.
Moses McCray, despite battling that hip injury continues to look good physically. He has a great balanced frame.
Gerald Demps, Lonnie Pryor, Dan Hicks, look like freshmen body-wise.
Ryan McMahon looks tiny. Glad he's healthy though...
Greg Reid is a great guy to talk to but he has a tiny tiny head.
Chris Thompson looks extremely agile and should be an immediate weapon.
Everette Dawkins has added some good weight and is probably 265-270ish, but he still needs to be playing defensive end and not defensive tackle.
JaJuan Harley is a full grown man and he is extremely fast.
John Prior (lineman from Ohio) ha a phenomenal frame. He's also a lumberjack (seriously, his family has a logging business). Huge forearms and in good shape.
Willie Haulstead and Rodney Smith are both impressive structurally, but have a lot of room to add good muscle weight. Haulstead has that Anquan Boldin look, where you can see him adding 25lbs in a year.
Henry Orelus does not look good. He is quite obese and Trickett is going to have a field day shrinking him down to size. The kid didn't quit though, and he will get to where Trick needs him.
Justin Mincey really has an opportunity to make MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. You hear that Justin? Work your butt off every day this offseason, get to 295lbs or so, start, flash your potential, and get noticed. This is your last chance and FSU really needs you. Even one day of slacking is too many.
Lonnie Pryor looked a bit average.
Aubrey Phillips looked huge.
A big thanks to those who went out to practice.

FSU leads for both Brandon Willis and Corey Miller, per Tharinger.com (thanks NoleT&T). That's a very good thing. FSU is going to have an elite recruiting class.

NFL Forum :: - Zone blocking scheme there's some more on zone blocking.

I suspect that we haven't yet heard the last of Marcus Sims at Florida State. Good thing, he'd be an idiot to leave for a DII school.

Monday Morning Tomahawks 06.17.09

FSUncensored — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:00:20 -0000

FSU Football

Andrew Carter- Orlando Sentinal- Wrapping up the Jacobbi McDaniel Saga
McDaniel honestly believed he had an $800,000 offer. The Brewers' representative said numbers were only thrown out to gauge his interest and were not representative of an offer. "You’ve got to ask all these kids what’s it going to take for you to sign," Robinson said. "And if they tell you 1.5 [million], you say, well, what about $200,000. You’re trying to gauge their signability before you take him." I want to apologize to Jacobbi for throwing out the possibility that he was lying. Everyone out there was confused about some parts of this situation, including Tomahawk Nation. I think Carter showed the most professionalism throughout, as he was committed to checking with multiple sources. For our part, I still think those advising McDaniel should have known better than to let him tell people he had an 800K offer as a 33rd round pick as that would have been completely outrageous as an opening offer at that selection. Mistakes were made all around and here's us owning up to ours.

Jeff Cameron Show- Ira Schoeffel The announcement of TK Wetherell's retirement, who may replace him when the time does come, the Jaccobi McDaniel saga comes to an end - and the $800k figure WAS correct [though it was not an offer, see Andrew Carter's final article] - plus what positives the FSU defense may have this coming season, ticket sales declining, and much more.

Also on the Jeff Cameron show, we learned that fullback Seddrick Holloway is off the team after getting really fat again and having other issues. I hinted at this a while back during our RB preview piece. That's not a big deal, but it becomes a bigger issue when during the same interview we learn that Marcus Sims' position with the team is also in serious jeopardy. Sims, who has not been participating in offseason workouts, is apparently miffed that he's being used as a fullback and not a running back. Memo to Marcus: man up. If you want to be part of this team, get back to the offseason program. If you don't, then officially quit and clear up a scholarship. Do not come back two weeks before the season in questionable shape hoping to play. I have to say that this news surprised me. Still, it makes some sense that the coaches took Matt Dunham back after the 24yo FB/ TE missed the 2008 season.

Chantrant: Wanted: FSU president to boost FSU's academic rankings. And hopefully not act like a rabid cowboy.

FSU's season ticket sales are down 10-12% this year. That's what a decade of mismanagement will get you. Scalpem takes the administration to task. Randy Spetman Is Begging You To Buy FSU Football Tickets · ScalpEm.com A really thought out post on the ticket situation. Personally, I think it was handled poorly, but that people who got their seats upgraded should probably accept their gift. Opponent fans do not deserve to sit close. for more, see FSU seating chart and ticket information. BUY YOUR SEASON TICKETS. THEY ARE ONLY $199 for 6 games! Sell the ones you can't get to.

Orlando Sentinel - NCAA response to be released by Florida State The NCAA has agreed to allow Florida State to release to the public the NCAA Committee on Infractions’ response to FSU’s appeal, according to a letter the NCAA sent today. This is going to drag on well into football season.

Seminoles.com Gator's preview Has Video. Good read.

Counting down the ACC's top 30 players: No. 18 Dekoda Watson He's one of Florida State's top defenders, and on a team that lost six starters on defense, he'll be needed even more this fall. Watson is fast, strong, explosive, has great NFL potential and has the ability to make game-changing plays. He averaged a career-high 4.6 tackles per game, but increased that to seven tackles per game over the final four regular season games. He also had eight tackles for loss.

Former Rickards standout JaJuan Harley showing his strength at FSU Tallahassee Democrat Recent Rickards High graduate JaJuan Harley had done a good job in that regard, according to FSU strength and conditioning director Todd Stroud. And now he has been turning heads in FSU's summer workout program. "Extremely strong for a freshman and extremely strong for a safety," Stroud said. "Tough. Agile. Good size. Weighs 205. He is as far along as any skill guy when they first come in here. He has the attributes." Applying the 3% reduction rule, he's probably at 199lbs not 205. Still, this is good news.

WR Primer: Get to know your Corps. - TarponsandNoles Tarpons with an excellent fapost that should help you get acquainted with this year's wide receivers.

IS THE TIGHT END AT FSU CONSIDERED AN ELIGIBLE RECEIVER? - Frank D Frank D takes a look at FSU's use of the tight end over several decades and wonders if the 'Noles will use the tight end more in the passing game under Jimbo. Excellent use of the fanpost feature.

Finally, I am disappointed in the lack of comments for Back to Basics: A Detailed Look at Defensive Line Play - Tomahawk Nation (TrueCubbie) If you can't control the line of scrimmage your chances of winning a football game significantly decrease. A dominating defensive line, or even lineman, will impact the outcome of a game. If a quarterback has no time to throw the ball, if the running back can't turn the corner, if the offensive line can't control the line of scrimmage, it's over. In this article, we will take a look at some of the basics about defensive line play followed by a discussion about effective line play. This is an excellent article and there is also some quality discussion in the comment section that follows the article. TrueCubbie played defensive line in college and everyone should avail themselves of his knowledge.

General Football

More on Big Ten schedules and the urgency of USC at Ohio State- Dr. Saturday Doc Saturday discusses something we've covered at length.

Smart Football: Smart Notes - June 15, 2009 Good discussion on Mark Richt's shallow cross stuff. Make sure to check that out and the links inside the story as well.

General News

Smart Football: Musings on sports blogging and the interplay between new and old media An excellent article you should read.

Dan Shanoff: ProFootballTalk Partners With NBC Sports

Florida State Seminoles Spring Football Preview: The Backfield

FSUncensored — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Note: Florida State pushed back the start of spring practice to March 16. The Noles were supposed to start on Monday, March 2nd, but Jimbo fisher decided it would be better to start after spring break, which begins on March 9, instead of starting practices and having a long layoff. The spring game will still be on April 4, but now FSU will have two practices after the spring game.

Here's the schedule: March: 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 28, 30. April: 1, 3, 4 (Spring Game), 6, 8

Part One: Florida State's Spring Football Quarterback Battle

In the second part in a series of Florida State spring football previews, we'll discuss the backfield.

Last year, under the direction of ACC Offensive Coordinator of the year, Jimbo Fisher, the Seminoles had the top rated rushing attack in the ACC. This was a huge improvement over the 2007 season which saw the 'Noles finish a pathetic 10th of 12.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Team	Off. Rushing S&P+
Florida State	123.7
Georgia Tech	122.4
N.C. State	113.2
Miami	110.4
Boston College	101.9
Maryland	96.6
Virginia Tech	96.0
North Carolina	93.7
Virginia	93.5
Clemson	88.5
Duke	84.7
Wake Forest	79.2

Click the link in the table header for an explanation of those numbers.

Let's take a look at what the 'Noles will need to do to equal last year's proficient rushing attack.

Opponent (ACC Games Only)	Rushes	Net
Wake Forest(3-12)	28	102
Miami (Fla.)(41-39)	52	330
North Carolina St.(26-17)	45	138
Virginia Tech(30-20)	38	89
Georgia Tech(28-31)	36	196
Clemson(41-27)	36	266
Boston College(17-27)	24	73
Maryland(37-3)	42	172

NOTE: The above numbers include sacks.

4.3 yards per carry, including sacks, is very good.

Here's a breakdown of the individual rushing performances. I have crossed off the guys the 'Noles will lose due to graduation, discipline, or injury.

Florida State 2008 Individual Rushing (ACC Games)
Name	Rush	Net
~~Smith,Antone~~	104	418
Thomas,Jermaine	31	279
Ponder,Christian	91	299
~~Richardson,D'Vontrey~~	23	134
Jones,Carlton	5	20
* Parker,Preston	7	67
Sims,Marcus	21	61
* Reed,Bert	3	13
* Givens,Louis	2	24
* Easterling,Taiwan #	4	17
* Owens,Rod	3	12
Team Totals	294	1344

Note: Ponder had 174 yards in sacks, which are included in his total.
* Player is not a backfield member but is likely a wide receiver
Players who will not be playing in 2009 are crossed through.
# Player is injured and will not participate in spring practice, but may play in 2009.

Florida State is losing roughly 245 carries and about 1200 yards on the ground.

The Seminoles must replace Antone Smith's production.

via i.a.cnn.net

Many don't think Antone was very good. I think he was a good college back. He was never great, but he was decent. Smith struggled to learn the Seminoles zone run scheme, which is not difficult to learn. He never seemed natural out there. I will always remember him for his huge effort in the Miami win.

Game (ACC Only)	Rushes	Yds
Wake Forest	8	24
at Miami (Fla.)	27	92
at North Carolina St.	20	89
Virginia Tech	9	57
at Georgia Tech	9	35
Clemson	8	57
Boston College	10	19
at Maryland	13	45
Totals	104	418

That's about 4 yards per carry in ACC play. There's a hidden advantage to losing Smith, however, and that is variance. Smith was a boom or bust back.

63 104 carries in ACC play. He gained 481 yards and lost 63 yards. That's a pretty high loss number for having only 104 carries. Smith gained 5.23 yards per carry and lost .61 yards per carry. That's probably a new stat to you. It is to me as well. I like to use it to look at how often a back puts his team in a negative leverage down after he has a run (like 2nd and 9, for instance). Modern football scholars almost universally agree that the median carry is a much better measure of running back value than yards per carry. Part of this it is very much attributable to an offensive line that exceeded expectations, but was far from good. Smith was frustrating in that never seemed smooth in his approach and often struggled to find the hole in the zone scheme-- which often did not designate a specific hole. He also really faded down the stretch. Antone also struggled with handling option pitches-- something that we saw was increasingly important in Jimbo Fisher's scheme. He also struggled running out of the shotgun, a formation that the 'Noles increasingly resorted to as the offensive coordinator gradually migrated against the use of a fullback, which is a dying position in the sport. As a receiver, he caught 10 balls for 100 yards, but 43 of those 101 came against Division 1-AA filler or in garbage time. Antone was a good Seminole, who never embarrassed the program and really ran hard his senior year. It wasn't his fault that the system didn't fit his style and I'm not wanting to bash a good Seminole like Antone.

Antone basically contributed 104 carries and 418 yards. Let's call his departure a deficit of 105 carries and 420 yards.

Florida State needs to find someone to take D'Vontrey Richardson's carries

via www.orlandosentinel.com

	Rushes	Yards
Western Caro.	4	68
Chattanooga	5	38
Wake Forest	8	46
Virginia Tech	4	21
at Georgia Tech	4	41
Clemson	1	7
at Maryland	6	19
Florida	3	14
ACC Total	23	134
Season Total	35	254

D'vo was good as a change up to Christian Ponder. Running the student body left and right out of the shotgun. He had issues that I'm not going to discuss here, but if you read every D'Vo article on our site you can probably get a feel for what he had going on. He'll focus on baseball now and has some chance to play defensive back in the spring, but it is unlikely he will be back. I don't want him back on the team as he won't be able to pick up defensive back and be productive in the remainder of his career. We need his scholarship. D'Vo was a very good runner, and importantly, a warm body to advance the ball and take hits that Ponder didn't have to take. We will need to replace about 25 carries and 135 yards in ACC play due to D'Vo's departure.

What of Parker and Easterling's carries?

Florida State dismissed Parker and Easterling had Achilles surgery. I doubt he contributes this year. These two wide receivers combined for 15 carries and 107 yards overall, with 11 of those coming in conference, for 84 yards. Next year, we'll need to replace that to the tune of roughly 14 carries and 110 yards. The 'Noles could do without Preston Parker's fumbling problem. I hope whatever team he lands with in the Florida Penal League knows about this.

The goal for Florida State in conference will be about 300 carries and 1400 yards.

Quarterback Christian Ponder should continue to be an excellent runner. I think an estimation of 90 carries and 325 yards (including sacks) is a reasonable expectation. I came to this conclusion because I think Ponder will be sacked less in 2009. I estimate that his yards per carry will improve by 10%, due to the reduction in sacks. We still need 210 carries and 1076 yards.

Jermaine Thomas should be good for 110 carries and 525 yards in ACC play.

via cache.daylife.com

Jermaine Thomas was made to be a running back in the zone scheme. He has no use for a fullback. Thomas understands the need to make one cut and get up the field. His stride is deceptively fast. At 6-1, 190lbs, his upright style is a thing of beauty to watch. Let's do just that:

Personally, his running style reminds me of Ricky Watters. Both Thomas and Watters played a fair amount of wide receiver in their prep days and both have a very upright gait. Here's Watters:

Longtime Tomahawk Nation contributor compared him to:

Jeff Cheaney. Both seem real wiry and don’t look very strong, but seem to have a knack for contorting to shed tackles. They have odd cuts and sometimes seem to be dodging imaginary players.

Last season, Thomas went for 279 yards on just 31 carries in ACC play. That's 9 yards per carry. I think 110 carries for 525 yards is a reasonable projection. Thomas is not a huge back. He is not the type of player I want drawing 20 carries per game. If Thomas can get 14 carries and 3 catcher per game in ACC play, that will be great for the Seminoles. I have a feeling that Thomas will decline quickly if he gets anything over 125 carries in ACC play. In fact, only 5 players had 125 or more carries in ACC play last year, and all were significantly bigger than Thomas. Only one (Dwyer) had an average approaching what I expect out of Thomas. It seems to me that Thomas' goal for Spring needs to be health and normal development. He must stay healthy and continue to get stronger. There is absolutely no need for Thomas to get extensive work in the spring and risk a possible growth stunting injury. All he needs to do is to learn the blitz pickup schemes and the intricacies of the Jimbo Fisher offense, an offense I don't think is all that complicated for running backs. Let's hope Fisher and staff manage him correctly as he can be a special weapon for the 'Noles in 2009.

Based on my projections of Ponder and Thomas combining for 200 carries and 850 yards, the 'Noles will still need to get another 100 carries and 550 yards to reach my goal of 300 carries and 1400 yards.

Marcus Sims should see an expanded role in 2009.

via www3.pictures.gi.zimbio.com

Most FSU fans know the story of Marcus Sims. The brother of Seminole superstar linebacker Ernie Sims, Marcus was highly recruited and came to FSU on the promise that he could play running back. Despite having a serious need at the linebacker position, FSU kept the promise. That may now prove to be a good move.

Sims missed 4 games last year with various academic related suspensions. He is a talented runner and can be a valuable bigger back in Jimbo Fisher's system. To call Sims a fullback would be inaccurate. He's essentially a 6' 0" 230lb running back. He rushed 23 times for 21 times for 61 yards in 7 conference games. Sims has very good receiving skills as well, catching 8 balls for 45 yards in 7 conference games. His best performance coming against NC State, catching 5 balls for 38 yards, including 3 first downs. Sims really needs to put better effort into his blitz pickup in the passing game and give more effort in carrying out his fakes. He also must hold onto the ball better. Maybe embattled running back coach Dexter Carter can help him with his ball security issue?

The spring is a perfect time to work on all of those issues. I think Sims can play at 235lbs and be a big time contributor for the 'Noles. It's worth noting that he is a Junior and not a Senior, thanks to some scholarship finagling. I expect Sims to get 55 carries for 200 yards this year in his 8 conference games. Like Thomas, he needs to increase his understanding of the offense and maybe his new found eligibility youth will inspire him to become a leader on the practice field.

Adding Sims 55 for 200 to our 200 for 850, we come to 255 carries for 1050 yards. We still need 45 carries for 350 yards to reach our goal. We can pick that up with the remaining guys and the incoming freshmen.

I think E.J. Manuel will have a decent year rushing. Most of his work in spring will be of the learning variety, however, and I doubt he focuses on running when he still needs to learn the passing game.

Highly touted JUCO running back Tavares Pressley (from last year's recruiting class) will miss Spring practice as he continues to recover from his August ACL surgery. I'm of the opinion that we should cut Pressley unless he makes significant strides this offseason. I really doubt that he can stay eligible for three years anyways, being a JUCO guy with past academic struggles. Here's some of his JUCO video for you to enjoy. Please keep in mind that it is very unlikely that he will both recover from ACL surgery, regain his prior form, and remain eligible all within the same time frame.

That leaves us with two guys who will be playing this spring.

The first is low-profile fullback Seddrick Holloway. He's sort of a man without a role in Fisher's offense, as we try to move away from the fullback and more towards the traditional H-Back role. Holloway is a good to very good blocker. He's not an elite college blocking full back. One of our members recently spotted Holloway and said that he is bigger than Kendrick Stewart. Kendrick Stewart is 6-1 270. Holloway is 5-10, generously. I don't know how much Holloway weighs, but apparently he is really out of shape now. He won't play if he doesn't get seriously committed to his conditioning. We don't need lazy players on this team. We really don't need waste of space seniors setting a poor example for the younger guys. We don't need a fullback with a 42 inch waist. Holloway only had one carry last year and is not a candidate to carry the football, though I guess he could rest it against his ample hip if need be. All kidding aside, we will need Holloway for limited goal-line and short yardage situations and he is way too slow right now to flow with our quicker linemen. He must get his act in gear.

Come On, Seddrick! Put down the burger!

That leaves us with Carlton "Ty" Jones, a sophomore from Tampa who has his own medical issues. Jones is a very promising prospect with a major issue-- he has diabetes. Right now, Jones is tiny. He is under 200lbs, after suffering another major diabetes induced weight loss. Jones cannot afford to mismanage his diabetes. His Grandma used to make him special diabetes friendly meals when he was a kid in high school, but apparently he is not getting that taken care of at Florida State. Know anyone who could help this kid out?

via cache.daylife.com

Jones needs to play at 220lbs to be effective. He doesn't have the moves to be a running back at a school like Florida State if he is down 20lbs of muscle. Jones is the kind of back who sheds tacklers with leverage and strength. I think he can be a decent player if he can get to 210lbs, and he will get a bunch of work in spring. Last year he rushed 11 times for 99 yards. Clearly he is a back with a lot of potential. Jones also has some intelligence issues working against him. I don't want to call the kid dumb, but he had a qualifying scare, really didn't understand the offense last year and hasn't had the mental discipline to manage the diabetes. Is it realistic to expect a college kid to manage his diabetes? His real work will come this summer in the weight room.

The real key for the spring will be for everyone to work hard, for the backs to avoid major setbacks due to injury or otherwise, and for Thomas and Sims to learn their pass protection responsibilities.

Jimbo's unit surprises, Mickey's unit FAILS, Jody Allen needs to be fired yesterday, and FSU loses a giftwrapped game they had no business being in.

FSUncensored — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 08:47:36 -0000

As always, this is a blend of our member's thoughts and my own. Thanks to all who contributed. We didn't have many differing opinions this week, which is unusual for a loss.

I'm still trying to digest this loss. Truly disgusting. People are going to make too much of the Marcus Sims fumble. The guy fumbled, and we shouldn't be surprised, as he did it last week. Fumbling one week isn't a reason to expect that it will occur the next. Sometimes these are random. He may have a fumbling issue, but we can't claim to have known that based off of 1 fumble in the VT game. Let's go easy on ripping Simms. He's not a good player and we know that. He is a slightly above average player who we've had to turn to because we can't run Christian every play, because Antone is really dinged, because Carlton Jones is a shell of his former self as a result of his type 1 diabetes (15lb+ loss since arriving), and because Jermaine Thomas can't run the ball every play. He is horrible in pass protection, but we will need Simms down the stretch. As for using him there on the goal line, Jimbo basically said that he is in our goal line package, and Thomas is not. That might change in the future, but discuss the entire game instead of one play out of 65.

via img.fannation.com

Instead of talking about that fumble, let's talk about how the Noles were totally outclassed in this game. Let's talk about how we never stopped Georgia Tech.

I don't put this loss on Marcus Simms.

I put this loss on Mickey Andrews.

31 Points, 0 Turnovers, & 321 yards on 39 Plays.

8.2 yards per play. Up until GT's QB left the game, that's what they had done. 8.2 yards per play. I don't need to say anything more. 8.2 yards per play. Mickey's unit was ill-prepared. 8.2 yards per play. They played like garbage. 8.2 yards per play.

Some people are going to say that the Noles finally started to make adjustments. 8.2 yards per play. That is pure B.S. 8.2 yards per play. Do not buy that for a second. 8.2 yards per play. The Seminole defense didn't adjust to anything, rather Georgia Tech's QB rolled his own ankle. 8.2 yards per play. That is pathetic.

In a game that the defense was being counted on to carry the day, they were non-existent. Bad assignment football, strange formations with the 2 DT's, and poor angles meant 8.2 yards per play. In the back of every knowledgeable FSU fan's mind, we knew there was a chance that the defense could lay an egg against a team of this design. I dismissed that, telling myself that was silly, that Mickey wouldn't prepare these guys in a way that would allow such egg-laying, and that playing a running QB for the 3rd consecutive week would increase our familiarity. I was so very very wrong.

I like Mickey Andrews a lot. He is a good guy by all accounts, and has been excellent over the course of his career. Everybody can have a bad game. Let's consider this his bad game.

There are much deeper issues here, however, that we must eventually start to look at. Mickey's DB recruiting has been woeful over the past few years, specifically at the CB spot. We have a stud in Patrick Robinson, and an above average Senior in Tony Carter. I don't expect either to be back. I'm not a huge fan of our technique, and I am not speaking solely of this game. We could have major defensive issues next year, as Mangum and Jenjie are not anywhere close to starter level at a major D1 program.

Scheme wise, I tend to think that people are figuring out Mickey. That's not to say this can't be an excellent defense going forward. We can, if we execute.

Nobody should forget, however, that we were incredibly lucky to be in this game. We never stopped them with their QB in the game. They punted once. When you have defensive talent like this, you can't allow the opposing team to run all over you. Does anyone actually think the defense looked good in practice leading up to this game?

When one player plays poorly, I'll point that out. When the entire unit plays poorly, I'll point to the man in charge. We were so lucky to have their QB injure himself. That wasn't something we did. GTech was on their way to putting up FIFTY. Who would have stopped them? Not the Seminole defense.

The Yellow Jackets hadn't scored more than 27 points in an ACC game this season and had 31 on the board with 13:42 remaining in third quarter. _Steve Ellis

Look at this chart (in full-screen if you need to). Look at all the yellow going into our zone. There is a noticeable change after the GTech Fumble. This is just another example to show that we didn't adjust to anything and the only reason their offense stalled was the self-inflicted GT QB Injury.

Full Screen Version

I put this loss on Special Teams Coach Jodey Allen

Last week, I implored you to email the folks in charge and ask that Jodey Allen be relieved of his position. His unit is consistently horrible. He is not a kicking coach and should not receive credit for Graham Gano's amazing ability. Our kick coverage is some of the worst I have ever seen. GT had returns of 46 and 29 yards. Their total tally was 116 yards on 4 returns.

There is no way Jody Allen can feel safe in his job at this point. Many have called for his resignation before me. Our production at the defensive end spot has consistently declined since Allen replaced former DE Coach Jim Gladden.

When Jimbo finally takes over and cleans house, I'll take Amato or Allen in the "first to go" pool. Flip a coin.

The offense was shockingly decent

While Allen's guys were busy looking inept as usual, and Mickey's crew was doing less with more, Jimbo continued to prove, to me and other Tomahawk Nation members why we pay him so well. He did more with less. We didn't expect much and they delivered a ton.

The offensive line played slightly better in the passing game than I expected, allowing 5 sacks and a holding penalty. A sack rate of 15% is still terrible, but it wasn't disasterous for us. They really excelled in the running game. If you take out the sacks (college stats count sacks as rushing yardage), the Noles ran for 228 yards on 31 carries, or 7.3 per carry.

Photo Credit: Tallahassee Democrat

I was very impressed with Jermaine Thomas. He doesn't look explosive, and doesn't appear to have track speed. His best asset is his vision, and it is excellent. In trying to figure out a comprable back, all I can come up with is Ricky Watters.

It's great to see Preston Parker performing well. He is a key part of our offense, even if he's banged up.

Great job by the offensive staff to use all of their guys. They were giving us throws underneath, and we got them into the receiver's hands.

My thoughts on Ponder are mixed. I already think he is a good quarterback, but he also has a lot of room for improvement. The throw into the end zone was just bad. I just don't know how preoccupied he is with avoiding the pass rushers that beat our young offensive line on almost every play. Many members are concerned with him not leading receivers enough and throwing late (probably because of late recognition). There are several explanations for this. The first is that he isn't able to devote the proper amount of attention to down field because of the pressure in his face. The second is youth. The answer probably lies somewhere in-between. I lean to the former, however, because the pass protection is so poor. For anyone wondering, the pass blocking is much worse than in prior years.

The offense did their job. In the end, our defense asked the offense to do too much.

Insert a bunch of talk about how this team is tough and how they battle, etc. Whatever. The strength of our team was a huge liability.

Other Nole Writers React

Scalpem says the Noles must put this loss behind them and get ready for Clemson, as it is a bigger test than GTech was. He's right, Clemson is better than their record indicates. The random thoughts are up as well.
ChanrRant says the Nole's life on the edge style caught up with them. Good read.

Remaining Issues

Ponder is definitely injured. I think he has cracked ribs. It's pretty amazing that our offense produced like it did with the young OLine and a major part of the offense limited due to injury.
The Clemson game will almost certainly be a 3:30 ABC Regional split.
Will we be ranked after today?
We should and probably will beat all remaining ACC opponents.
Florida is going to wipe the floor with this team.
Dinnich is already writing us off, but Maryland still must beat us to secure the Atlantic. We really need Wake to drop another game.
I accidentally deleted the copy of this game from my DVR, so unless someone sends me a copy, I can't do the film review.