SB Nation - Dekoda Watson

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Clemson - Florida State film review

DrB — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:52:23 -0000

More photos » by Richard Shiro - AP

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ESPN Play-by-Play

I'm going to go pretty much drive by drive here, offense and defense, not every play but most of them, because they were all for yards. See the end for the summarizing thoughts. I've used TNet videos where I think they do well, but they are sideline shots and don't show the plays develop. Please comment and ask questions on what you dont understand, these take a long time to do well. The goal here is to look for good plays and bad technique. I may pull a few plays out to discuss the Clemson offense, and if theres anything that you would like to see or have explained, just ask.

1st Clemson Drive starts at the CU 24.

Inside handoff to CJ for 3 with end-around motion. Isolation play to CJ for 6. PA off that Iso to Diehl for the 1st down. Why don't we run this play more to Diehl? PA pass off the first play is incomplete. Spiller underneath catch for 4 on a crossing route. Parker has Ford open on a slant-n-out and it skips off his hands incomplete, throw was high.

40 yard punt was almost blocked, returned 43 yards by Reid. Terrible coverage. People were not in their lanes.

Defensive drive: Ponder take it himself for 4. Off tackle play toThomas gets 5. Ponder sneaks, gets stopped, and then the referees give him the most beneficial spot I've ever seen. One ref came in from the far side with the right spot, the near ref did not. Tigers blitz on the field side and a pass completed and stopped at the reception point. Thomas gets 5 when he needed 3 for the first, because we missed about 3 tackles. Pass outside is completed, but a holding call pushes them back 10. Thomas gets 10 back, great blocking by their line. Tigers blitz again with Maye running him down for a slight loss. Tigers send a SMOKE blitz (chambers) off the backside and the rushed throw on a corner route is incomplete off his fingers, would've been a great catch, but a holding call nullifies it. Clemson takes the holding call and lets them redo 3rd down? Why? Shovel Pass to Reed, with the tackle pulling from the back side, gets them most of that 20 yards back, then they kick the 35yd FG. 3-0 Noles

2nd CU drive starts at the 24. Jet sweep to Ford gets 8. CJ takes a 35/37 Iso/blast for 14. (Note that the name "blast" and "iso" are interchangeable) Pass to Dye on a curl gets the 1st. Good PA fake and Palmer gets 5. Toss sweep from the I loses 2. I dont like the attempt Freeman made at a block on this play. Walker and McClain could've done better. Ashe missed a crack. Parker hits Ford for 23 on a Dig. Walker gets raped by Jenkins on a speed rush from a 9 tech (i think) but Parker finds Allen standing open on the backside for the TD.

Snap was wide on the XP, holder barely got it down. 6-3 CU 7 plays 76 yards

Defensive Drive at FSU 22.

Hitch to Reed complete for 9. Next play gets thte first but is stopped because Jenkins blew it up in the A-gap. M. Goodman misses a tackle on an outside zone play for 3, but J. Jenkins commits a personal foul for a head slap to an OL. Touchdown play for 49 was perfectly executed. The FB ran out of the backfield on a perfect TB then orbit motion fake, and the LBs did not pick him up. Conner is responsible for the FB, technically the first back to his side. Gilchrist came up too close to the LOS, because of the end-around, and was out of position to help. 10-6 Noles

3rd CU drive starts at the 28. End around fake and handoff to Spiller loses 3. We still don't fool people in the Gun. Spiller comes out. Parker makes a fantastic play to hit Palmer when the OLB blitzed and Smith couldnt pick him up properly. Short gain. On the INT, Palmer was running a skinny post, and Parker threw it like it would be a vertical fly route, right into the safety's arms. I dont know what he was thinking. Palmer wasnt really open. An underneath receiver was, and he possibly couldve hit the X receiver on a deeper post if the ball was thrown perfectly, but should take the underneath route. 17-6 Noles

4th drive: FSU tries an onside or short kick, which I think is genius, but drive starts at the CU 45. CJ is stopped in the backfield by the backside LB charging up the A-gap to his side unblocked. End of 1st QTR. Parker leads Allen too much on the next throw, gotta work on his short touch throws. Hairston gets whipped by Dekoda Watson and throws it away as he's hit. Punt is dropped inside the 2 yd line.

Defensive drive: Tigers blitz but a hitch is completed to get them out of the hole. Again a Field side OLB blitz but Rennie Moore jumps offsides. Maye gets blocked out, and one of our DTs gets manhandled (jenkins i think) and Thoamas gets 7. Thomas eludes M. Goodman, when Goodman tries to strip instead of wrap up. Maye doesnt wrap up either but Gilchrist forces a fumble and Hudson takes it another 9. Crossing route gets 7, the the inside guys come through and Maye and Conner knock Thomas around and force a fumble, Hall recovers.

5th drive, starts at FSU 48. Screen for 5, great play call. Dye is hit for 43 in man coverage on a dig/crossing route, FSU blitzed and Clemson was in max-protect. DE jumps offsides when Palmer stands up, bone head didnt realize that the TE can come out of his stance once set. Spiller takes an inside zone for the 2pt conversion on a run-pass option play. 17-14

Defensive drive, FSU 22: Inside run stopped by Jenkins/Thompson holding their ground. Shovel pass stopped by McDaniel in the backfield. Sapp jumps offsides after he was jumping and dancing. Turns a 3rd & 13 to 3rd & 8. Then Clemson gets screwed by Jack Childress' crew. Complete bullshit call. PI called on McDaniel, but he was blitzing, the penalty was really on Butler. It was outstanding coverage and he was playing the ball on an In route and tipped it in the air. Screen pass to Reed gets 44 to CU 20. Clemson was not prepared, just didnt get settled after that PI. Andre Branch did not read screen when the linemen charged upfield. Maye came in on a PA fake too far, and would've made the tackle around the first down marker if he had not. FSU slides the protection over and leaves a back in to pick up Sapp, but we blitz Maye to this side, Ponder is tackled as he throws and its picked off by Coty Sensabaugh. Ball should not have been thrown into triple coverage (zone it appears).

6th drive starts at the CU 21. Spiller looking like he's lost a step even here. Clemson runs a Trap from the Gun and the DE who was supposed to be trapped nearly tackled Parker for a sack. That is on Austin, who was pulling. He doesnt make up for it on the next play and slips on his block on a bubble screen to Ford, Palmer made the play work, got 16. Spiller busts them for 45 on a HB Power Play, but got caught from behind at the FSU 19.

Naked bootleg (counter trap blocking) nearly gets us sacked but Parker hits Ford immediately, Ford was lined up as a RB. Dye is hit on a shallow cross against another blitz down to the 1, good effort. FSU lines up with 12 on. Offsides by FSU on the next play. McClain dives in, for what reason I dont know, probably doesnt know the snap count. Loses us 5. Hairston gets whipped again and Parker fumbles, he saw the rusher and shouldve flipped it at Palmer's feet. Cant take a sack here, but gives it up.

Bare minimum, shouldve had a FG here. From 4 inches away, get the damn TD. Killer penalty on an 80 yard drive.

Defensive drive: LBs charge in, Conner out of position, Thomas gets them out of the hole to the 16. Somebody made him spit out his mouthpiece on the next play though. Ponder lobs a pass and its picked by Byron Maxwell. I dont know what was up there, looked like he expected #80 to run a fade route and he didnt. Throw wasnt great even if that was the case.

7th drive, Clemson starts at the 24. Bad throw to Ford on a quick slip screen, incomplete. Spiller stopped, Slip screen to Ford again gets stopped, just good defense by FSU. Jackson missed the 38yd FG barely wide.

FSU gives us a damn gift, and we do nothing.

Defensive drive: FSU 20. Maye charges into a Guard, blocked out, Conner makes shoestring tackle. Inside guys getting pushed too much here as Thomas gashes us again for 10, Conner makes another critical play. FSU hits 2 hitches and a jailbreak/tunnel screen before attempting a 58 yard FG.....way too short. I'm surprised they did that with this offense.

Halftime

Clemson's defense has played more Nickel zone, and brought relatively little pressure aside from the down 4. They were too excited in the first 20 game min or so. Every time we have blitzed, it has been pretty successful. Otherwise the pass rush is disappointing. Missed tackles are part of the problem with Thomas, he's a shifty runner, but they are making their blocks up front and we are not getting off them. Deep/intermediate coverage has been good, and secondary tackling was quite good.

FSU 156 passing, 85 rushing.

Ballgame should be tied at least, and given we had it inside the 1, should be 21-17. No excuse for not getting it in from inside the 1, ever. Most running success was in the I-formation.

CU 159 passing, 63 rushing, most of which was on 2 plays by Spiller.

3rd QTR

1st Defensive drive, FSU opens on their 33. Ponder hits Easterling on an Out, throw barely made it over Maye's hands to the CU 48. Conner blitzes and forces a bad throw by Ponder. 3 & out.

Clemson starts on the 20. Zone handoff to Spiller gets 8. Parker takes one himself for 7, good choice. Jamie Harper came up gimpy on a short yardage dive, thigh bruise. Spiller wheel route off PA to Taylor, basically the same play we scored on with Palmer against Miami, except here Palmer was in motion and Spiller was lined up as a back.

The WLB to the playside hesitated just long enough because of the PA to Rendrick Taylor, and the safety had been cleared by the split end going deep. 21-17 CU

Defensive drive, FSU 26. Clemson clearly changing coverages to more man/man and a little more blitzing. On 3rd & 8 Ponder hits Owens on an In route. Ponder tries going deep to Fortson, but Maxwell makes a great play. Throw was a little off. They had an awesome screen play set, but the RB dropped the ball. On 3rd & 10 Easterling on a double slant pattern gets 16. Ponder again throws deep after being rushed, but leads it too much for Reed, but he was open. Ponder takes a keeper for 9.5 yards. Crezdon Butler on the sidelines with a hip flexor. Both starting cover corners are on the bench. Thomas gashes us up the middle against the Nickel coverage for a first. Guys are not getting off blocks. Ponder goes to the endzone on Fortson, perfectly thrown but he couldnt maintain control of the ball. I was surprised this was not reviewed. On 3rd & 9 Ponder hits Pryor again in the flat for a 1st. Fisher smartly goes no-huddle and we dont have the right personnel on the field, then we cant figure out who is supposed to be on the field, but the refs saved us by reviewing the prior play.

During the timeout, the defense is clearly frustrated. Swinney and Steele are calming them down. On the TD, our LBs charged and jumped over, but Thomas went under them on an Iso. 24-21 Noles

Worst drive of the game by the defense, but the only points surrendered in the half. FSU clearly frustrated them by converting on 3rd & long 3 times. FSU really just outexecuted us here. It wasnt bad coverage, and slants and crossing routes are the way to attack man/man coverage. I was surprised, however, that we did not blitz more.

Clemson drive starts at the 20. Parker misses a wide-open Allen, throw is behind him. Next play is clearly a bust. I dont know what the goal was, but it appeared to be a backside screen. Linemen had gone downfield like it was a run play, penalty on Cloy, but this one is not really his fault. Ashe catches a slant for 14. HOLY SHIT ASHE LEARNED TO CATCH SLANTS! Spiller busts an inside zone for 14, then another outside zone for 35.

Intended play to Palmer on the backside was incomplete, but was an excellent playcall by Napier Their DB just kept his assignment. Parker hits Jacoby Ford in the fucking hands on a crossing route, and he drops it. Swinney chewed his ass too. Parker hits Palmer at the post for a TD, but its called back because of Xavier Dye being misaligned. Allen was flexed on the LOS, and was covered up by Dye. Dye should've stepped back one step. Parker runs up the middle for a few. Jackson misses a fucking chipshot 26YD FG. Perfect snap, bad kick.

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHH

Killer penalty by Dye, killer. Should be 28-24, then Jackson misses an easy kick, game should be at least tied. Painful. This is a gut-check moment.

Defensive drive: Ponder hitch on a waggle gets a 1st down. lemson blitzes into Ponder's face, another bootleg, and forces an early throw that falls incomplete. Thomas gets 8 after Kevin Alexander fails to wrap up the back, but he did make the tackle. Clemson blitzes Conner on the backside and Ponder hits the RB for the 1st at midfield. FSU tries an orbit misdirection sweep, a stupid call. I would have attacked downfield. Loses them 14. Off-tackle play nets 4 as the quarter ends. Start of 4th Qtr. On 3rd & 21 they get 13 yards due to bad angles and a WEAK effort of tackling by Sadat Chambers. Punt, and a terrible one out of bounds. Defense comes up with a stop when we really need it.

Clemson drive starts at the CU 20. Parker forces a throw to Allen with Ford underneath. Lucky this was not picked off into triple coverage. Tunnel screen to Ford gets a couple. Parker throws into the arms of a charging LB for a pick-6, I don't know what the hell he was looking at. This was akin to Harper's throw into the NC State LB last year. Offsides penalty nullifies it, thankfully. Ellington makes an outstanding play, being hit by Watson behind the 1st down marker and charges ahead for the 1st. It really was a terrible tackle by Watson more than anything, he came in high. Parker's throw to Ford on an Out was jumped and again nearly picked off. Punt.

Terrible drive by Parker. Terrible throws. If FSU had made a play, they could've possibly put this game away here.

Defensive drive starts at the FSU 33. Ponder throws one down the sideline on a vertical, and Clemson has great coverage, and Hall picked it off. This is on Ponder, terrible throw, not enough zip. Clemson was playing Cover 2 Man. He makes an idiotic play to pitch it out, trying to make something happen, but luckily Conner picked it up and returned it to the FSU 24. Freshman mistake.

Clemson Drive starts at their 24: Iso nets 4. CJ pulls up on an outside run for 4 more. Pitch gets the 1st down. Iso to Ellington gets 2. Ellington takes an inside 33 zone run for the TD. Great block by Thomas Austin in particular. Benton flat out misses a fucking XP. Jesus Christ. 27-24 CU outstanding drive by the offensive line and the backs.

Game Ending, most clips from the 4th Quarter are in this so I see no need to pull out more.

FSU starts on their 28. Thomas again breaks two tackles but KA pulls him down for 2yd gain. FSU killing us with slants and hitches. Thomas hesitates on his hole and is stopped for a loss. I wonder how much Ponder's ribs are keeping him from attempting a deeper throw than these slants and hitches? Clemson blitzes on 3rd down and Ponder throws it away. Punt.

Clemson starts on their 26 with 6:30+ on the clock. Mode here should be to grind it out. Parker takes a zone read for 9 and a 1st down, excellent play call by Napier. Isolation is cut back by CJ outside for another 1st down. Ellington takes another Blast 44 yards on a cutback after a missed tackle by Marcus White. CJ takes it for 4 on another lead play. PA play to Durrell Barry hits the TD in the back of the endzone. Clemson set this play up PERFECTLY by running the ball all the way down here. Good call by Napier. Jackson hits the fucking upright. 33-24 CU.

Goddamn I love the I-formation, we pounded their asses on this drive and needed it. OL deserves alot of credit for manning up.

FSU starts on their 23, 3:59 on the clock. Great play by Conner to stop a flare route, man coverage. DeAndre picks off a throw by jumping the route, then lays out Ponder. Great instincts but FSU set this up by hitching and slanting us all day.

Clemson gets the ball at the FSU 5. CJ takes a Blast/Iso in for the TD. Jackson finally KICKS IT THROUGH. HOLY SHIT. 40-24 CU. Goddamn I love the I-formation.

FSU gets the ball after a personal foul on the kickoff on their 12. E.J. Manuel in at QB with a little over 3min on the clock. McDaniel nearly picks off a pass that would've been 6. They go for 4th down and Manuel is sacked by Chavis and Alexander, though I don't see it recorded as one in the stats.

Clemson takes over on downs at their 17. Dabo calls for the V formation, I wouldnt have. Too many years of being slammed by FSU, i'd have put another TD on the board.

----------

Well, that offensive performance was the best I've seen all year, supported by the graph below, thanks to FSUncensored at Tomahawk Nation. Clemson's OL toughened up and pushed around Florida State throughout the 2nd half. Very little pressure came into Parker's face, if any. C.J. ate their defense alive on a gimpy leg, and Ellington showed flashes of how he could be Spiller's successor next year.

Parker had a couple off-drives. The one in the 4th quarter could've easily killed us, but FSU did not make the plays that we gave them. We made the INTs that Ponder gave us. Thats the difference between a 6-3 team and a 4-5 team.

If you wonder why we're executing better, look at who is not mentioned: Jones, Clear, Brown, Taylor. These guys are getting on the field a bit, but nothing is coming their way. Ashe, Dye, Ford, Palmer....these guys are in on every play. The backup linemen didnt stand out to me in either light, aside from a play David Smith missed. McClain possibly cost us another 6. Hairston got beat badly early by blitzing LBs and speed rushes, but pulled it together. Aside from those complaints, and the trap play and screen that Austin missed, the line had great day.

Kicking and kick coverage = shit. We did have a couple nice kick returns.

Defensively, we played more zone in the first half and a little more man in the 2nd. Steele did not blitz much. FSU dinked and dunked down the field with underneath crossing routes, which is their forte, and Steele was willing to give it to them to make them execute all the way down the field against us. Good deep coverage by our secondary and the zone kept things in front of them. Secondary tackling was great. However, there was alot of bad tackling by the front 7. The Line did not get off blocks, but I will give credit to FSU for making them stick. This is a very good OL we played against, better instructed at zone blocking than ours is. Ours would not have handled our DL this well. Sapp was able to get some speed rushes, as did Branch, but Ponder doesn't hold onto the ball long enough to get sacked. Clemson's best pressure were with Maye and Conner coming in on delayed blitzes.

I still think that this game should not have been in doubt as late as it was.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Sara D. Davis - AP

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Florida State and North Carolina might be having somewhat disappointing seasons, but there will be plenty of talent on display.

That talent will particularly be found on the defensive side of the ball.

North Carolina has one of the better defensive duos in the nation with junior Marvin Austin and senior Cam Thomas. Austin is somewhat similar to Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, just a notch below him in every category.

Thomas has nose tackle size and could be a rotational defensive tackle. He might be only a two-down player at the next level, but is serviceable.

Arguably the Tar Heels' most talented defensive player is junior inside linebacker Quan Sturdivant. He's big, fast and already has 7.5 tackles for loss this season.

On the outside, junior Bruce Carter is a very good pass rush. His numbers are down this season because teams have been sending an extra blocker at him or chipping him.

Almost every North Carolina defender has great size and athleticism. Junior free safety Deunta Williams is no exception. He gets after the ball aggressively and supports the run nicely.

And he might not be draft eligible until 2011, but end Robert Quinn is a terror. He has seven sacks this season and 14.5 tackles for loss. He might have the makings of a future top 10 pick.

Florida State's top players are pretty widely known by now. Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson was highly touted by Mel Kiper Jr. at the start of the season, but he hasn't really lived up to the hype. His awareness is poor, but he has good quickness and agility.

Senior outside linebacker Dekoda Watson is a solid cover-2 candidate, but he might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams player.

Junior Rodney Hudson might be the best guard in the nation. He's athletic for an interior linemen and really understands leverage.

Quietly, Florida State junior quarterback Christian Ponder has emerged as a solid signal caller. None of his measurables will blow people away, but he's having a tremendous season. He's completing 68 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns to just one interception.

With all the talented junior quarterbacks Ponder gets overlooked. Take note tonight at 8 p.m. on ESPN. He could be a sleeper for next season.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Preview, part Deux

FSUncensored — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Butch Davis- "Thank God I get to play the most undisciplined and worst coached defense in the country!" (AP Photo/Gregory Smith, File)

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First, check out yesterday's part 1. Then read this.

Kickoff is 8pm Eastern. ESPN. Weather looks nice, lower 70's, no rain.

We will live-blog the game like we always do! Be here at 7:30 Eastern to get in on the action.

Inside:

Depth Charts
In-Depth Statistical Breakdown
Personnel Review
A conceptual look at UNC's attack
What can FSU do to stop UNC?
Prediction

Quarterback
13 - T.J. Yates (6-3, 220, Jr.)
Fullback
4 - Bobby Rome (5-11, 245, Sr.) OR
6 - Anthony Elzy (5-10, 215, Jr.) OR
45 - Devon Ramsey (6-2, 245, So.)
Tailback
20 - Shaun Draughn (6-0, 210, Jr.)
32 - Ryan Houston (6-2, 245, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
8 - Greg Little (6-3, 215, Jr.)
87 - Jheranie Boyd (6-2, 185, Fr.)
Wide Receiver
88 - Erik Highsmith (6-3, 175, Fr.)
83 - Dwight Jones (6-4, 220, So.)
3 - Joshua Adams (6-4, 200, Fr.) (questionable)
Left Tackle
72 - Kyle Jolly (6-6, 310, Sr.)
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.)
Left Guard
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.) OR
64 - Jonathan Cooper (6-3, 295, Fr.*) (questionable, but will start if healthy)
Center
65 - Cam Holland (6-2, 300, So.) Banged up last game
75 - Tavares Brown (6-0, 310, Sr.)
Right Guard
70 - Alan Pelc (6-6, 325, Jr.)
Right Tackle
66 - Mike Ingersoll (6-5, 300, Jr.)
Tight End
80 - Ed Barham (6-3, 265, Jr.) OR
17 - Zack Pianalto (6-4, 255, Jr.) MAYBE
33 - Christian Wilson (6-3, 235, So.)

Let's start with last season:

Actually, let's not. The Heel's offense was good, definitely one of the 35 best in the country. They lost basically everyone. This year?

Here's their performance against 1A competition to date:

UNC Offensive Performance
Opponent	at UCONN	ECU	Gtech	UVA
Opponent Defenisve Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	54th	98th	60th	27th
Plays	67	63	44	59
Yards Per Play	4.1	6.9	3.5	2.9
Rushes	29	37	17	21
Yards/ Rush	2.4	4	1.4	2.3
Passing Plays	38	26	27	38
Yards/ Pass Play	5.4	11	5.9	3.3
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	27-9 (33%)-11	35-11 (35%)- 11	16- 4 (25%)- 9	21-9-8
Standard 2nd Downs	5-10 (50%)	5-8 (63%)	3-5 (60%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 2nd Downs	3-14 (21%)	5-13 (38%)	2-9 (22%)	0-12 (0%)
Standard 3rd Downs	2-6 (33%)	4-5 (80%)	2-5 (40%)	2-5 (40%)
Passing 3rd Downs	4-10 (40%)	1-7 (14%)	1-10 (10%)	3-13 (23%)
Note:	Only 6 successes in 29 runs, horrible. 18 successes in 38 pass plays is much better		10 plays and 37 yards in garbage time Did have a bad snap for -20 Very sloppy, dropped passes and inaccurate.	1 Drive over 20 yards 6 of 10 1st down passes went for 5+ yards, very safe. 6 of 21 success rate rushing (terrible) 12 of 38 Success Passing

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

That's really bad. Know what else is bad? FSU's defense!

Opponent	Miami	at BYU	USF	at BC	Georgia Tech
Opponent Offensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22	6	94	61	2
Plays	74	53	60	57	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

Click to enlarge (works today)

Yes, you're reading that right. UNC's offense is the 99th best in the country. You could call it the 22nd worst! And not to be outdone, FSU's defense so far has been the 101th best! Yes, 101. To sum it up in one sentence, North Carolina's offense failed to move the ball at all against both good and bad defenses, while FSU's defense allows everyone to do whatever they wish.

Who does it for them?

At quarterback is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. As you can see from the chart above, he is an average player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and he did drop some weight in the off-season.

I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. I wrote that this summer, and so far this year against D1 competition, he has a 4-6 TD/ INT ratio.

They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game They've shown little of either so far.

He's not your ideal running threat, but against the most undisciplined, worst coached defense in the nation, look for him to be running with the ball.

Offensive Line

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

I think I nailed this. UNC still can't run the ball worth a damn. They have not stayed healthy. Center Lowell Dyer strained a muscle in his right shoulder in practice the week of the Connecticut game and has missed five straight games. He is
undergoing rehab with the hopes of returning before the season ends, but will not play against FSU. He's been replaced by Sophomore Cam Holland (6'2" 310). Redshirt freshman Guard Jonathan Cooper twisted his right ankle in his first career start vs. The Citadel and did not play the following week vs. Connecticut. He returned last week and will start against the 'Noles.

This is probably the worst offensive line FSU will have played to date (USF being the only challenger). They aren't great in pass protection nor run blocking. Luckily for them, they play the most undisciplined defense in the country.

If FSU gets them in 3rd and long, FSU should use the prowler. UVA had success with it:

Pass Catchers

Wrote this over summer:

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

For the most part, I nailed this. Little is the #1. They like to throw him short stuff and let him work with his legs. The #2, however, was a surprise. It's Freshman Erik Highsmith, a 6'3" 175' kid who has done a lot for them in a short period of time. Starting tight end Zack Pianalto dislocated his foot vs. Connecticut after scoring a touchdown and has missed four consecutive games. He returned to practice last week, and will play against FSU. His effectiveness, however, is yet to be determined.

UNC's wideouts run really poor routes. I did rip Yates for being inaccurate, but part of that needs to fall on the receivers for not being where they are supposed to be. Additionally, they drop balls. These guys are big, fast athletes, but as I predicted, they are inconsistent and really lack polish.

Backs

I wrote:

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Womble is out for the year, and Rome has been banged up, largely replaced by 6'0" 245 Devon Ramzey. This is pretty much accurate. Their backs don't scare me, but they aren't a bad group. As usual, the offensive line matters a lot more than the running backs.

Focus on Common Opponents

I want to take a minute to show the differences between the two teams. Both teams played Georgia Tech's defense.

Opponent: Georgia Tech	Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted): Georgia Tech has the #2 offense in the Country to date.
Defense	FSU's Defense	North Carolina Defense
Plays	63	77
Yards Per Play Allowed	8.5	5.3
Rushes	55	65
Yards/ Rush Allowed	7.4	5
Passing Plays	8	12
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	16.4	6.9

Yeah, FSU's defense is much worse. The 'Noles allowed 35% more yards per play than UNC did, and UNC was on the road while FSU was at home. I guess that's why the 'Nole's defense is 101st and the Tar Heel's is 10th. I actually believe FSU's defense is even worse than their 101st ranking (can't believe I am saying that).

Now I want to do something a different. Follow me here. FSU's defense ranks # 101. East Carolina's ranks #98. That's pretty comparable. USF's offense ranks # 94, and UNC's #99. That's pretty comparable. Let's look at what FSU's defense did against a bad offense and what UNC's bad offense did against a bad defense:

Team	FSU's Defense against	UNC's Offense Against
v.	USF (94th ranked Offense)	ECU (98th best defense)
Plays	60	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.2	6.9
Rushes	37	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	5	4
Passing Plays	23	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	8.2	11

Remember that USF runs a spread option- the best offense to run against FSU. UNC does not run that.
However, USF also played prevent offense for more than a quarter, so their performance was much better than their 6.2 showed.
ECU's defense is very similar to FSU's
I would expect UNC to get about 6.5 yards per play.

How do they do it?

Bunch & Motion & Stack & Tight - man beaters

UNC runs almost every play out of some sort of bunch, stack, or tight formation. What is that?

Click to enlarge.

The reason for this is pretty simple. UNC's wideouts do not run good routes. Ideally, teams would like to run man-coverage against them and blitz. When receivers are bunched up or stacked or in tight, and a team wants to play man-coverage against those wideouts, they will have to put two defenders in very close proximity to each other. That poses a substantial risk that those two defenders will collide or get tangled up when trying to cover. It also prevents the defense from playing press-man coverage (again, the goal being to help out the young receivers by allowing them a clean release off the line.

ECU played a ton of man and got burnt. I fully expect FSU to bang their heads against the wall and get burnt on this. The 'Nole's defense will look really stupid. Combine that with the problems they have defending the tight end, and you have the recipe for a truly horrid pass offense to look pretty good. Mickey Andrews needs to play some zone and he won't because he is stubborn.

As for the motion, UNC motions on every single play. It allows the offense to get a better idea of what the defense is doing based off how the defense reacts. UNC players have commented how simple FSU's defense is, and that tells me that they are confident they will figure out what FSU is doing based off the 'Nole's reaction to the pre-snap motion. I'll figure that they will have the 'Nole's simple hand signals down by the middle of the 1st quarter.

A Little Clemson

This offense reminds me of the Rob Spence attack Clemson ran in 2006 and 2007.

Self Inflicted Wounds

UNC really does a nice job stopping themselves. Lazy/ bad routes, bad throws, and lapses in protection (and run blocking) hurt this club, as have penalties. I don't figure them to take a lot of risks, but

Slow Starters

For whatever reason, UNC has gotten off to really slow starts in their 4 games against D1 competition.

UConn

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:34	UNC 23	3	2	Punt
10:59	3:23	UNC 20	9	37	Int
6:12	2:08	UNC 3	3	9	Punt
3:04	3:51	UNC 35	8	38	FG Miss

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
9:33	1:57	Conn 48	3	-9	Punt
4:48	1:19	UNC 38	3	-7	Punt


3rd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:31	3:07	UNC 27	6	15	Punt
8:29	2:56	UNC 1	5	15	Punt
3:33	1:19	UNC 21	3	5	Int

East Carolina

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:38	UNC 18	3	6	Punt
11:00	0:30	UNC 31	2	2	Fumble
7:00	2:16	UNC 40	6	60	TD
3:00	1:39	UNC 19	3	4	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:44	2:26	UNC 8	5	14	Punt
10:43	1:32	UNC 23	3	-13	Punt

Georgia Tech

Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:27	UNC 20	3	4	Punt
8:57	1:03	UNC 19	3	1	Punt
3:04	0:55	UNC 8	3	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:47	1:37	UNC 20	3	-2	Punt
10:39	2:18	UNC 31	5	1	Fumble

UVA

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:40	UNC 20	3	-4	Punt
12:17	1:30	UNC 20	3	3	Punt
9:27	2:09	UNC 44	4	14	Punt
4:46	3:00	UNC 13	6	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
12:00	1:20	UNC 25	3	8	Punt
6:50	2:49	UNC 28	6	18	Punt

It's very important for FSU to not allow UNC to get off to a fast start. This is a team lacking in confidence, and if the longer they go without grabbing a big lead, the tighter they will play. And this team will begin to press. I'd expect them to play conservative early, but if they get down late, expect Yates to chuck it up.

No dropback downfield passing game (only PA)

UNC has zero dropback passing game. There's not much to say about this expect that almost every time they drop back without moving the pocket or using play-action, they look really bad.

Moving The Pocket

UNC's passing game is almost entirely based on bootlegs, rollouts, etc. Yates loves to get far outside the pocket (with his OLine, you would as well) and set his feet before launching. FSU must to not let him set his feet on rollouts.

When they rollout or bootleg, they look to hit a lot of deep crossing routes. This works for them because the wideouts don't typically have to run a great route, it's more of a drift team.

Screen Game

When FSU checks to Cover-3 (after motion), they will run this:

Click to enlarge.

No Huddle

UNC has done a nice job running limited no huddle (hurrying up to the line when running back to back plays).

Cut their Splits and Blast Block the Power?

UNC's primary run play is the Power. Down, Down, Pull (kick-out) and go. The linemen all block down -- meaning they step away from where the play is going -- to crush the defensive linemen and get double-teams. The offense makes up for this by using the fullback to block the defensive end from the inside-out, and they block the linebacker on the play side by pulling the backside guard. Here's a great post on the play. I'd expect UNC to cut their splits to prevent penetration and run this play 20+ times tonight. FSU has struggled against this before.

They also do a lot of end-around motion off the power, occasionally giving it but more often than not just holding the edge player for a second.

FSU's injuries

FSU is really banged up and will be without Starters in bold. Key reserves in italics:

CB Dionte Allen (thumb),
LB Maurice Harris (neck)*,
TE Caz Piurowski (knee)*,
DT Budd Thacker (knee).

WR Richard Goodman (groin),
SS Korey Mangum (shoulder),
DT Justin Mincey (knee),
CB Patrick Robinson (ankle),
LB Dekoda Watson (groin/knee)
* - out for the season

Several of the backups are now walk-ons. That is what happens when you have 5 terrible defensive coaches who don't give a damn about recruiting in 2006 and 2007. You have no depth. This defensive coaching staff really is the worst in the country.

Prediction:

As I said yesterday, I expect FSU to get close to 6.2 yards per play against UNC's defense, which would be by far the most they have given up all year, by 25%. That's a win for the offense, and I think they get about 27 points. I think UNC's offense will get it together against FSU's trash defense. Allowing anything over 4.5 yards per play to one of the worst offenses I have seen in a long time would be ridiculous, but I see FSU allowing UNC to go for much more than that and allow 6.5 yards per play, which would be a complete and utter embarrassment. Special teams are a factor here and UNC's group is nothing to write home about, while FSU's return teams have been good (coverage is another story). I'll say UNC gets 28 points on a mixture of plays for loss and big plays to win 28-27 over a 'Nole's team that could have some serious infighting between an elite level offense and an embarrassment level defense.

Chance to win: 45%

Processing the Result: USF's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:03:03 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State's Defense didn't hold down USF, the Bulls stopped themselves, and that doesn't bode well for the Seminoles' defense in future games. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

I'll start this with a few caveats. FSU's defensive coaching staff is a mess. Legendary defensive Mickey Andrews wanted to retire after 2007 (after his son Ronnie died unexpectedly), but was begged back by the old guard. He wanted to retire after 2008, but was begged back by Jimbo Fisher so that Bobby Bowden wouldn't make the disastrous move of promoting Chuck Amato to defensive coordinator. I won't speak ill of Mickey often, because he's been a great Nole, never selfish, and even in this his worst season ever (to date), he is doing FSU a greater service than most know by blocking Chuck Amato from taking the defensive coordinator position. It's thought that Bowden would have been allowed to name Amato as DC if Mickey had retired after last season, but not if he stayed on for this season and then retired. The ability to hire the defensive staff seems to rest on Jimbo. it would be silly to allow Bowden, a man who will be here for only one more season, to bring in the defensive staff he wants for only 12 games, and then make Fisher put the team through another coaching change (their third defensive coordinator in three years). For the administration to do anything but allow Fisher to select the defensive staff after Mickey retires this off-season (and he is retiring), would be to send a message that they simply do not care about the football program. If that happened, I would expect a string of bad seasons and a half-decade long rebuilding job following 2010. But I am told that will not happen. Fisher will be allowed to select the defensive staff and leave Bowden with no friends on staff. So Mickey doesn't want to be here. Amato is doing everything short of outright sabotage to hurt Fisher and tarnish his image. Amato is the evil on this team, while Bowden is the one enabling him and worse yet, trusting him. He also isn't coaching within the confines of Mickey's defense, and is telling kids things which run counter to what Andrews wants. Defensive Ends coach Jody Allen is one of the worst football coaches anywhere, and his continued employment is a joke. He's also rumored to have lost or chipped two teeth recently after an offensive coach, finally fed up with his inappropriate practice antics, hauled off and punched him in practice. Oh, and under Bowden's watch in 2006 and 2007, the defensive recruiting was completely horrible and without any rhyme or reason, so there are serious depth issues with the defense. Take zero defensive depth plus horrible coaching from coaches who are either has beens or never was', some of whom are more consumed with goading other members of the coaching staff than coaching their own position group and some who just don't want to be there, and you have a recipe for the worst Florida State defense in over a quarter century.

I am calling this series "Processing the Results" because results are only repeatable if the process justifies them.

	Good Process	Poor Process
Good Result	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.	Team was lucky , future poor process unlikely to yield similar good results.
Bad Result	Team was unlucky, future good process unlikely to yield similar bad results.	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.

So my goal in these will be to determine whether FSU's result justified their "process" (aka how they played). Anyone can just say "14 points, great defense", or "7 points, bad offense." They might be right, but I would like to make sure they are correct.

In this case, this was bad process, good result. Simply put, USF should have scored a lot more points, and it wasn't FSU that kept them from doing so. I'll explain why. I am quite concerned about this result, because it gives a false sense of self confidence. USF should have scored 35 points. In the preview I wrote:

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Daniels' above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. FSU must force Daniels to be accurate and drive, not allow the big play. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

And FSU allowed 14 points, but their play was much worse. USF missed two crucial field goals. They had guys running wide open all through the secondary, and Daniels just didn't see them, or overthrew them, or USF dropped the balls (like the wide open 45 yarder). After watching the tape, I was amazed at just how poorly Daniels read the defense. This does not bode well for future games. I can't honestly say that FSU's defense played any better in this game than they did against Miami or BYU. Sure, the points allowed was better, but USF's offense is not very good.

Time for a Youth Movement in the Secondary

As for the secondary players, let's start with Korey Mangum. We sure see # 22 running after wideouts who are on their way for 70+ yard TD's, but this is again process v. results v. prudent moves for the future of the program. Mangum didn't blow the coverages on those two long touchdowns, and he didn't blow the coverage on the long dropped pass either. So don't blame him for those plays. But there were other plays in which he busted coverages and Daniels just didn't hit the open receiver. I've seen enough of Mangum. He's not a good player. He might be better right now than some of the young players FSU has, but Florida State needs to go with a full youth movement on defense, much like UF did in 2007, before winning it all last season. The rule needs to be "Seniors who aren't significantly better than the underclassmen behind them need to sit the bench. That means Mangum sits the bench, and freshmen JaJuan Harley and Nick Moody play the strong safety/ rover position. Patrick Robinson will continue to play corner, and he is the best corner I have seen this year in college football. So should Ochuko Jenijie, because he is a lot better than most of you think, and will be a starter next year. Still, young guys like Dionte Allen (who blew the coverage on the long bomb along the sideline) should rorate with Jenijie. Ditto guys like Terrance Parks, who should rotate some with Jamie Robinson.

As for Greg Reid, I really think this is getting out of control. Greg is good when he can free-lance, but right now he is not ready to play on the base defense. Mickey Andrews was right in his press conference. Reid doesn't play his responsibility and tries to do too much. Until he proves that he can play man-coverage without trying to pay attention to the running game, he can't play on the base defense. That is not a coaching issue, or an experience issue, it's just simply a Greg Reid personal discipline issue. He can continue to be good in the underneath Nickel coverage, but even there, Reid gambles a lot and committed at least two pass interference penalties.

Yet I worry about a conflict of interest. Mickey Andrews is a prideful man, and with this being his last season, I can see, for personal reasons, why he would not want to go with a youth movement. But the real problem there, is of course, Bobby Bowden, who is again making decisions which are solely to benefit himself but counter to the interests of the program.

Run Defense is the Root of the Problem as Front-7 Size Rears its Ugly Head

I think a lot of the problems on defense, outside of the coaching and the lack of depth, is the complete inability to stop the run. The problem is still there, even if the results in the first two games didn't show it. We just didn't see it as often in the first two D1 games. Against Miami, FSU loaded up against the run and Miami, anticipating this, threw the ball on first down all over the defense. BYU wasn't much of a run team. But Jax State did a great job with the 11-man run game considering their personnel, and USF had a field day with it. I preached about this all summer, but if you weren't here, or need a refresher, here is part one and part two. Simply put, FSU's defensive scheme is outdated, depending only on speed, completely lacking in size, too dependent on their defensive backs to assist with the run game, which against a modern defense isn't realistic, and is now exploited by those modern offenses, even in their simplest forms. FSU's defensive backs aren't as bad as you think they are. The pressure on them is enormous, and their focus is divided on the run game, when they should be focusing on the pass because of the man coverage FSU asks them to play demands their undivided attention. So what do you do, allow the defense to be run on? It's just an impossible situation.

Let's take a look at the traditional box score against what really happened:

	Traditional Box Score	Smart Box Score
Rushing Plays	42	37
Rush Yards	153 (3.6)	187 (5.05)
Pass Plays	21	23
Pass Results	215 (10.2)	189 (8.2)

The change here is that the two sacks are counted as the failed result of a passing play in the Smart Box Score, as it should be. I also removed the QB Kneeldowns to end the game. Those are not contested plays.

187 rushing yards on 37 plays for USF is scary. It's over 5 yards per carry. USF's Offensive Line is Garbage. These guys did not impress me, but they dominated FSU's defensive line and linebackers outside of Nigel Bradham (I'll discuss him later). FSU's defensive line got worked by a bad offensive line, and that does not bode well for the future. FSU's defense was exposed by the 11-man rushing attack last season, by some very average offensive coaches, and it is continuing this season. I'll venture to say that FSU will face better offensive lines against Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Florida. The others will be about the same.

And the problem started on 1st down, where USF rushed 19 times, The result: -4, -2 (bad snap), 0, 1, 1, 2 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 44 On first down, when everyone knew USF wanted to run, they ran with success.

And in 2nd and long, FSU routinely let USF set up 3rd and shot, or just convert the play into a 1st down. 2nd down & Long Runs

Distance	Result
7	4
10	29
7	7
7	2
7	8
14	0
12	1
13	14
7	5

So on nine 2nd and long runs, USF gained a first down 4 times, and set up 3rd and short twice. FSU's rush defense failed 6 of 9 times to stop the run on 2nd and long.

As a whole, FSU's front-7 is very poorly coached and the lack of depth is really beginning to show. Again, we shouted about this for the entire off-season, much to the annoyance of many doubters. They fail to play inside out, with solid leverage. They overrun plays. Chuck Amato's freedom system is really hurting this linebacker corps. Amato brought the freedom system back with him after Kevin Steele left, and it basically entails just preaching intensity and making plays over technique, play recognition, and discipline. It was a complete abortion of an idea. FSU's linebackers already made tons of plays, but anyone with half a clue knows that big plays are mostly based on situational factors, not just trying to make them. Amato grew up coaching when FSU had a huge talent advantage over almost every opponent, and when it wasn't popular to expose over-aggressive defensive players via misdirection and the like. He has no idea how to teach linebackers right now, not that he even wants to, but he doesn't teach the players play recognition. The big plays aren't happening for the defense because the guys are out of position. It's complete guesswork on their part. Kevin Steele was a details freak. FSU's linebackers took much better pursuit angles under him. They shed blocks, while now, Amato has them just trying to run around blocks, which doesn't work against the modern offense. They have to play with good inside-out leverage, and it is clear that taking on blocks and playing with that leverage is not being taught in practice.

FSU's defense did the exact opposite of what I called for:

To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. It's not about getting around the blocker and to Daniels, it is about collapsing the pocket and then reacting once he scrambles. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

And that did not happen. FSU routinely lost contain and did not play with intelligence.

As for individual performances, I'll run through them quickly. Markus White is average at best, has no rush moves, and is really a guy who is hurt by Jody Allen's lack of coaching (he never played defensive end or even defense, yet was promoted by Bobby to the position because of familiarity). He also tries to jump around blocks instead of taking them on, stoning them, and shedding them. Kevin McNeil is extremely lazy, and it's sad because he had a chance to play in the league. If FSU had any sort of depth in the defensive front seven (short about 8 players), McNiel would have to work harder or risk losing his starting spot. His late hit penalty was inexcusable, and it was a direct result of him being lazy in the first few seconds of the play. You can tell that McDaniel is more injured than the reports indicated, and FSU is having to use Everette Dawkins at DT. Give Dawkins credit, he played really hard and even made a few plays. I expect him to be a good player eventually, hopefully at defensive end. He should be at end, in a perfect world, but with FSU's lack of depth at defensive tackle last week, they needed him to play. Jamar Jackson isn't any good and I don't expect much out of him. Toshmon seems to have some potential, but he is way too small right now.

I am really disappointed in some of the linebacker play. It's really Nigel Bradham and then everyone else. Bradham plays out of his mind. He takes on blocks and it must just be an innate ability, because it's clearly not being taught to the other backers. His series towards the end of the game, He is the only decent player in the front seven. Dekoda Watson is playing really, really soft. Kendal Smith is terrible and should probably sit the bench in favor of Nigel Carr. Maurice Harriss doesn't impress me much.

The bottom line is that FSU couldn't stop USF's running game, when the Noles had 3 linebackers in the game and USF had 4 wide receivers in.

And if you want more proof as to FSU's run defense being the real problem, I have that for you. Now, remember that USF went way conservative. FSU'd DB's are just too concerned with the run, but they have to be because the run defense is so bad.

In 2nd and 3rd and long situations, FSU's pass defense was excellent, because they didn't have to worry about the run as much. The DB's really are not that bad. It's the front-7.

2nd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
23	Sack
10	Incomplete
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete
10	Incomplete
10	INTerception
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete

3rd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
7	Sack
10	Incomplete
5	Incomplete
6	INTerception
15	Sack
7	8 yards

That's dominance. This defense is made to play the pass. They just can't stop the run at all.

Strategy Concerns, etc.

I don't want to give away stuff that would hurt the team, though I suspect every other team already knows what i would say. FSU really struggles against any kind of trips alignment. I've seen it for about three years now. The adjustments are much too slow. The coverage checks are obvious and predictable. Georgia Tech is going to kill them on that just as they did last year.

Oh, and the interceptions weren't forced, they were just really dumb throws.

USF basically gave up towards the end of the game, running the same 3-4 plays over and over again. It was depressing. They didn't even try anything risky in the 2nd half.

In closing, the play of the Seminoles defense doesn't suggest this result is not likely to be repeated. FSU's coaches don't have the ability to remedy this now, and they definitely can't make up for two years of poor recruiting in 2006 and 2007.

Can the Noles defense make any adjustments for the Boston College game? I'll tackle that tomorrow.

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

The Conversation: Talking USF @ Florida State with TheBullsPen.com

FSUncensored — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:28:37 -0000

This week's guest is TheBullsPen.com. It's a forum, and we've never had a Q&A with a forum before. After reaching out to some USF beat writers, and getting no response, we turned to these guys. Their response was very good. If you're a USF fan finding this on google, you need to get to TheBullsPen.com ans sign up. It's a nice community and they are pretty serious about their football.

Waylon Jennings & Hank Williams Jr - The Conversation (via Slasheri)

There's a story behind the clip. People said we needed to use more youtube clips. I happen to like Waylon and when you type "the conversation" into youtube, this is what you get.

First up, USF's questions to us:

With FSU's revent struggles with mobile QBs how do you think they will deal with USF's type of spread where an athletic QB and his ability to hurt you running or passing is the centerpiece?

I don't think this FSU defense is any good. It's easily the worst in my lifetime (born '85). They rely on a lot of young kids, who mix great plays with boneheaded decisions. There are some encouraging signs, however. First, FSU has an excellent gun-run game, so the defense has now had an entire spring and fall camp to see this look. Second, the defensive interior is bigger, which should help. Third, FSU now has three legit linebackers, as compared to last season which saw FSU scramble and convert two safeties to the linebacker position to make up for some early entries to the NFL and some injuries.

If there is one unit on offense or defense that FSU must contain to beat USF , which would it be? What do you feel will FSU's biggest advantage will be on Saturday, biggest weakness? What are your 3 keys to victory, for both teams?

I'll try to profile this in Friday's preview (it's worth the wait, trust me), but FSU obviously can't just allow any unit to run wild. I'll say the contain game. USF RsFr. QB B.J. Daniels has a big arm, but he can be erratic and lacks touch, so FSU has to make him sit in the pocket and not allow him to scramble around.

FSU's biggest advantage, outside of home field, should be their offensive line. Staying in good down and distance will be key. I also think FSU has an advantage with their 3rd and 4th wideout against USF's 3rd and 4th corner. If USF is going to win this game, they must run the ball very well to get FSU into some more favorable coverages. To that end, USF's offensive line has to play well.

I'll discuss this more in-depth Friday, but USF must establish the run, find play calling balance (not try to do too much or too little as to be predictable), and must sell-out against the run. FSU just needs to run the ball, not try to do too much on offense, and not allow big special teams plays.

How do you stop George Selvie?

Selvie is a good pass rusher. FSU will block him with Sophomore Andrew Datko. Datko was a freshman All-American a season ago and has picked up where he left off. Over summer, I profiled the insane slate he'd face this season. Selvie had a great Sophomore year, but was a disappointment last season, probably because he was injured. Datko has excellent technique and I am not overly worried about this matchup because Selvie doesn't have much of a bull-rush move. Datko can handle a guy who tries to get around the corner every time. He's 6'6" 291, so occasionally he will struggle against an elite defensive end who has a strong bull-rush move to compliment the outside stuff. I also expect FSU to run right at Selvie, because he does not like to play the run from what I have seen.

For more of our responses, to answer a few of their questions, and to see TheBullsPen's excellent answers, continue reading!

I can't think of a more baffling team in the country right now than yours. They've yo-yoed up and down the first three weeks, and I don't think anyone expected them to torch BYU the way they did after their near-death experience with Jacksonville State. Which game that you've played so far, if any, represents the true 2009 Seminoles?

I recently told Andy Staples of SI: you can choose to judge their two games against ranked D1 competition, or you can choose to look at a game they played against Jax State under circumstances that many teams will face this season, just not as extreme as the Noles faced.

After three games, FSU is 118th against the pass in I-A - only UAB and Washington State have given up more yards. Is that an illusion, or are there issues in the back seven that haven't been addressed?

The issues in my mind are along the defensive line, which has played poorly. Considering what has been asked of them, I think the secondary has played okay. FSU has asked its guys to play straight man coverage for 5 or 6 seconds, and nobody can do that (though Patrick Robinson has played very well and pretty much locked down his side, as the top corner in the nation should do.) But you also have to consider who they played. MIami's dynamic offense, BYU's very impressive attack (which by the way, FSU did hold to only 21 points before the Noles pulled their starters). They also faced the top QB recruit in the country and the MVP of the SEC championship game in Ryan Perriloux for Jax State. There's not another team that has faced similar competition to date. There are issues, but that ranking isn't indicative of FSU's performance, because it doesn't adjust for competition level.

- I'm not going to lie, if USF were ever to replace one of the "Big 3" in Florida, many Bulls fans think FSU would be the one getting replaced. With Mickey Andrews saying he wants to retire at the end of the season, and Bowden looking more like a coach emeritus every year, how concerned are you about the long-term health of the program? How much faith does the average FSU fan have in Jimbo Fisher when Bobby finally retires?

I was very concerned in 2004-2007, but FSU has a stadium,, tradition, and now has a plan. They have to deal with one more year of this Bowden nonsense, but I don't think people realize all that goes in to making a program, particularly the booster base, stadium, recruiting, a conference, etc. I think USF has a shot to be the .5 in the Fla 3.5 Everyone inside the program and most knowledgeable outsiders will tell you that losing Andrews and Bowden represents an immeasurable upgrade. Jimbo Fisher saved Florida State at a time when most didn't realize how bad the program was internally, with a lot of behind the scenes stuff that I don't have enough space to describe. The improvements he's made, particularly in recruiting and organization structure, and the improvements he will make in this and next off-season will lay the groundwork for sustained play at the highest level. I understand that many don't think Miami would be replaced, but they don't have a stadium and rumor has it that their booster contributions are way, way down.

It seems like the light bulb clicked on inside Christian Ponder's head this offseason. What improvements has he made from last year to this year that have made him so effective?

I'm going to brag a bit here. Tomahawk Nation was probably the only site not to get on the "Ponder Sux11!!11!1" bangwagon a season ago. Now, we do have some coaches (not FSU's coaches, haha) who write for us, so that helps. We identified the problem of a year ago: the youngest offensive line in America (3 true freshmen, two sophomores), which while good at run blocking, was poor in pass protection. FSU had to scheme around their offensive line, and Fisher rightfully won the ACC offensive coordinator of the year award for delivering the top offense in the conference despite the line. In the off-season, we broke it down and wondered whether the offensive line would take that next leap. We said that they likely would. So far so good, as FSU has the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Ponder looks like a completely new quarterback, the best FSU has had in a decade, and he'll be running the 2nd best offense USF has ever faced (the Oregon team in the Sun Bowl a few years ago was very special).

Are you more or less confident in slowing down USF's offense with B.J. Daniels under center than you would have been if Grothe were playing? Why?

Tough question. Over the summer, I wrote:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

I didn't mean to jinx him, USF fans, honest. I'll split on this. If FSU shreds USF's defense like they did to Miami and BYU, then USF would be better off having Grothe, because I think he is less likely to have a completely embarrassing and career/program scaring meltdown than B.J. Daniels.

But if USF starts to volley with FSU, then I think USF fans should prefer Daniels, a kid with better physical tools, probably just making plays, and gaining confidence as the game goes on.

Many of us are also Bucs fans, and we'd like to thank you all for Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn, among others. Which current Noles do you think we'll all get to know on Sundays in the future? Offensive Tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will play in the league, as will Guard Rodney Hudson. Wide receivers Richard Goodman and Jarmon Fortson will get paid. On defense you'll see DT Jacobbi McDaniel, LB's Dekoda Watson and Nigel Bradham, and definitely CB Patrick Robinson (considered by many to be the top CB in the country).

Finally, here's a few our fans can answer:

- This may be the best-attended road game by USF fans that we've ever had - right up there with the time we took over FAU's little sandbox of a stadium. Any suggestions on what to do (and what not to do) in the parking lots and at the stadium? Maybe some things we wouldn't think of. We all know bad things would happen if someone tried to stop Renegade and Chief Osceola. Does it bother you that Gene Deckerhoff went to UF?

What are your feelings on playing against USF for the first time? What 5 places should USF fans make sure to visit while in Tally?

Now, Tomahawk Nation's questions to USF

In your honest opinion how much of a drop off or rise in play do you see with the redshirt freshman quarterback leading the offense? How much of the offense can he handle? How will this impact playcalling?

Jamie: I hate to say "I don't know" but... I don't know. We can go off of what we've seen in the two games Daniels has played in extensively so far (which were both against I-AA schools) and what everyone within the program says about him. He's faster than Grothe, he has a stronger arm, and everyone says he has the same competitive streak in him - which makes sense, since he played basketball last year in the toughest conference in America. But until you really throw him in the water and see if he can swim or not, you never know for sure. Even if the Bulls lose the game, it will be very encouraging if Daniels still plays well. Grothe won his first-ever road game at UCF, and nearly won his second one at Kansas (the year before they really took off - I was at that game and can still see the winning touchdown pass skimming off Ean Randolph's hands... what a bummer). It only took that long for us to figure out that he had something.

Mike Canales (our offensive coordinator) says they're not going to limit Daniels. I think we're interested in knowing whether Canales has limited himself in the first three games because he didn't want to give FSU a roadmap to stopping the offense. It seems like the offense has been opening up a bit since the Wofford game, but we have no idea how much of the playbook is available at this point.

Jim: While the style hasn't changed much, the offense was new this year even for Grothe. Daniels probably had more reps in the spring and camp cycles to protect Grothe from injuries. (Grothe hurt his hip pointer in Aug 08, so there was some concern). Coach Canales also said that preparation this week would not change.

Daniels is a taller, faster, stronger version of Matt Grothe. He doesn't have Matt's experience, and has not shown the same personality (back up QB's don't usually show the "moxie" when they are in the game for mop-up duty).

The real issue will be how quickly Daniels can adjust to the FSU speed. Sure, he sees a fast defense every day in practice - but practice speed isn't game speed. If he can adjust quickly, we'll be fine.

Data: Really, I don't know. In terms of pure physical talent, Daniels is better. He seems to be very calm and confident in the pocket. Overall, I'd say our big play ability is a little higher. Daniels can just make throws that Grothe wouldn't be able to. We'll have to see whether Daniels is nervous, or just makes mistakes seeing the field against the speed of FSU. I have a feeling the overall dropoff won't be much, but we won't know until Saturday.

Dan: I can't say I truly expect an actual rise yet, because we just don't know, and it's a hell of a game to have your first start in, but I don't expect alot of dropoff. I think BJ Daniels' skillset will help make up for a little bit of the dropoff, if there is any. And the team will be rallying around him and playing their hearts out for Grothe. I think he can handle the whole offense. Playcalling won't be much different, but I still think there are things that both QBs practiced that will be new to everyone, including us.

If you had to point to a place on the timeline of FSU football, where would USF be today?

Jamie: We're probably you guys around 1982. We've come a long way and there are a few skins on the wall, but people are wondering if we're legit or not. You guys won at Ohio State two straight years - we beat West Virginia two straight years when they were in the top 10. We're hoping that we're in a bit of a leveling off period while we wait for the next step up to true elite status.

Jim: It's a bit different. USF is in a conference, and a BCS conference at that. FSU for most of the rise to power was independent - which means USF can't follow the same path. However, I would put USF at about the 1980 FSU timeline.

Data: You'd have to help me out with the years. I would say we are somewhere around the Casey Weldon early years, or maybe a year or two before Weldon took over. The team is at the point where ending the season in the Top 25 should be a reasonable goal.

Does USF have the confidence/talent to play tight man coverage against our secondary, thus taking away the bubble screen? Also, do you think Daniels will be able to stretch our D by consistently hitting the intermediate routes? What kind of designed runs do you anticipate against FSU?

Jim: Joe Tresey is a good DC, and will likely mix up the coverage -- switching from man to zone. USF played mostly a soft zone (like a cover-2 or cover-3) during the first three games. However, the CBs have the speed to keep up with the WR's... and safety Nate Allen is a ball hawk (and potential 2nd-rounder).

Daniels has an accurate and strong arm. If Bogan, Love, Mitchell, and the rest of our WRs can get behind the FSU secondary - then Daniels can hit them.

USF runs a modified spread-option, where the QB decides at the last minute to hand off or run based on the crashing DE (this is the zone-read). USF also has specific plays with a QB run (not just QB draws). Those are probably the most unique running plays. USF has more traditional counter, off-tackle, sweep and up-the-gut runs. I would also expect an end-around or even a reverse.

Data: I'm confused by the first question. If the question is - Do we have the confidence to man against your WRs? Probably. But we have new Defensive D-Coordinators. In past years we definitely would have left our DBacks on an island and put lots of pressure on the backs. We have one NFL quality CB in Jerome Murphy, and some young guys on the other side that seem to be very good but haven't proven it on the field (Q Washington, George Baker, Kayvon Webster). Currently, when we go with a nickel package we'll see two of the three young corners instead of another safety.

Daniels has shown the ability to hit guys in stride 40 yards down the field. From a passing perspective, I expect you'll see us run the same kind of deep passing game that Miami had success with. But we'll also run a lot more 4 and 5 wides, and try spread the field to hit the 10-15 yard pass. We'll run at least 8 different receivers through the game, probably more like 10. The running game hasn't settled on a running back. I think you'll see steady but solid Mo Plancher run your basic off tackle stuff, powerful and speedy Mike Ford pound it up the middle, and lightning quick Lindsey Lamar try to run outside and catch some screen passes. Most of our running is out of the spread, but in short yardage we'll bring in two or three TEs.

Dan: Unsure about the man coverage. Our receivers are pretty big and athletic, and they play as well as they can. Daniels has smarts and I noticed he knows how to take some heat off the ball to fit the ball in the short routes, and still knows how to bomb it with surprisingly great accuracy. Not sure what Canales has up his sleeve for runs, but we are getting more and more stable at RB so I'm sure there will be some interesting things to see.

This weekend, how will your fanbase adapt to a stadium that does not serve alcohol?

Jamie Have you ever been to a game in Tampa and seen the beer prices? Our stadium basically doesn't serve alcohol either. The hardest part for the drinkers is going to be the noon kickoff. The default kickoff time at our home games is 7:00pm, and there's always a lot of kvetching when a game is moved to 12:00pm for the Big East Game of the Week slot because there's just not enough time to get a good buzz on in the parking lot.

Jim: The same way yours does. Drinking in the lot and sneaking some in.

Dan: I could be mistaken but I don't think UCF's stadium served alcohol either (even though it's a wet campus). It'll be just fine, just means people will remember more of the game, and your city will make alot more money off booze sales on Fri night and Sat morning.

Is it possible for the Bulls to have a moral victory? If USF is able to compete with Florida State and keep the game close, can it be considered a step forward for the program?

Jamie: No. Moral victories are for UCF.

Jim: Moral victories are for UCiF. (Named because "if this" or "if that" they would win...) If USF keeps it close and loses, that is a loss. Many fans not only think we can win, but almost expect it. Much like FSU fans thought about Miami on opening weekend.

Data: I don't think there would be terrible disappointment with a close loss. But only a victory would be considered a step forward. This team has already won bigger road games in the recent past against (at Auburn, at West Virginia when they were considered a NC contender). From a recruiting perspective a win over FSU would be huge. From a "We have arrived" perspective, I don't think a win at FSU would top Auburn unless FSU was undeafeated late in the year.

Dan: A moral victory would be winning on a FG or by less than 6 points. A real 'we-have-arrived' victory will be a double digit 'in-your-face' beating.

From a fan's perspective and the program's perspective, which game is more important to the Bulls, FSU or UM?

Jamie: For the fans, I think we're happy if we win one out of the two games this year, just to have that first "Big 3" win under our belt. But for the program, I think this one is more important. This goes back to the question I suggested about how many Bulls fans think FSU is most vulnerable to falling out of the "Big 3" in Florida. Miami is always going to get talent from their own back yard. Florida has national recruiting cachet and can get almost anyone they want. And USF is doing an increasingly good job retaining the talent in Tampa Bay. If the state can't support four BCS conference teams at a high level (note: we don't know this for sure yet) and one school has to take another's place, then FSU seems like the one USF would replace if they could get there. Part of that replacement process includes beating them on the field.

Jim: FSU is more important because we have four more games against UM and only one against FSU. And this is our only scheduled visit to Doak.

Data: About the same. If we go 1-1, I think we'll be happy. The two teams seem very close in talent, and we get UM at home. So I guess that would make the Miami game slightly more important. But a win over FSU would mean the Miami game is less important. If that makes sense.

Dan: They're about 50/50. UM is more important to win, because they beat us last time, and we should win at home. It's too early to know if FSU will be great this year with the rest of their schedule, and we'll know when we face UM how good they truly are. Winning at either will surely help in some way or another.

Vegas is giving USF about a 13% chance of winning this contest. What percent chance do you give yourselves winning this game?

Jamie: Before Grothe got hurt I would have said around 40%. Now I'm down around 25%. But that's about the chance I gave USF to win at Auburn, and we know how that worked out.

Jim: 50-50. Honestly.

Data: My head is telling me about 25% after the Grothe injury. But Daniels is sending out really good vibes. I know BYU is supposed to be good, but they turned the ball over a lot and our speed on defense is a lot better than theirs. My gut is telling me this team is better than the last two years, and has a greater sense of purpose. I'll go 60%.

Dan: With Grothe, I think we had a 50/50 shot at winning. With BJ, I think it may be 40-45%. Know this. This team is ready. We still have a great defense and we have a solid O-line, and our QB isn't a scrub. And we seem to have a legit kicker (you guys know ALL about that wide-right stuff ) Expect everything from us, it's only Wednesday and I bet the team is already on fire tired of hearing all the weak arguments and cheap shots being taken at them because they lost one guy.

A big thanks to TheBullsPen.com

Preview: Florida State vs. BYU

sroufe — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 18:46:27 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

3 months ago: Florida State's Christian Ponder, left, runs as Miami's Marcus Robinson gives chase during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Monday, Sept. 7, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

Florida State Seminoles (1-1) @. BYU Cougars (2-0)
LaVell Edwards Stadium - Provo, Utah
5:00 PM MST, September 19, 2009
TV - Versus
Radio - 102.7 FM; 1160 AM (KSL)

Injury Report

Florida State: Out - LB Vince Williams (back), LB Aaron Gresham (knee), DT Demonte McAllister (ankle), OL John Prior (knee), DT John Mincey (knee); OL Antwane Greenlee (knee); Questionable - DB Korey Mangum (shoulder)

Notes - Williams is listed second on FSU's depth chart at MLB. His absence will give more playing time to Recardo Wright, a senior who recorded 18 tackles last season. Gresham was behind Williams at MLB - so the Seminoles are thin at that position right now. McAllister and Prior are freshmen that FSU will likely redshirt. Mincey is a senior and started four games last season. He was projected to be a starter prior to his injury in fall camp. Mangum is a senior also and plays ROV. Mangum led FSU in pass breakups in 2008 but if he's unable to go against the Cougars he'll be replaced by highly regarded freshman Nick Moody.

BYU: Out - OL Braden Hansen (knee), OL Jesse Taufi (academics); Questionable - DB Scott Johnson (concussion); Probable - RB Harvey Unga (hamstring)

Overview

The Florida State blog at SB Nation, Tomahawk Nation, has provided a very thorough breakdown for this evening's game. A lot of information provided in our question exchange this week with Bud Elliott of Tomahawk Nation was excellent as well.

Tonight's game will come down to, in my opinion, the matchup of BYU's O-line and FSU's D-line. With another lineman out (Hansen) the Cougars are thin up front. The Seminoles have some solid athletes and will bring it. Obviously they don't have a Gerald McCoy - but neither does anyone else. If the FSU D-line puts pressure on Hall then it will alleviate a lot of the pressure on the Seminole defensive secondary. That secondary has largely disappointed against Miami and Jacksonville State in their previous two contests.

If the Seminoles can't create a decent pass rush or stop the run effectively they are going to be in trouble. One of their best players is freshman DB Greg Reid - and he is a phenom. Reid will probably lock up O'Neill Chambers tight in this one. If the Seminoles have a good pash rush, both Chambers and Jacobson could vanish in this game. Reid also returns kicks and that could be potentially devastating for BYU's kickoff-coverage. If Stephenson/Payne don't improve their performance look for Reid to have a major impact in that area.

Here's more on Reid:

"Rated as the No. 15 on the ESPNU150 and the No. 2 cornerback in the nation ... listed as the No. 27 player nationally on the Rivals100 and ranked as the website's No. 4 cornerback... a five-star recruit by Rivals.com ... listed as the top-ranked player at any position in Florida by Rivals.com and the nation's top cover corner ... Scout.com rates Reid as the No. 7 cornerback and the nation's No. 56 overall recruit ... a SuperPrep Elite 50 player (No. 49), the No. 3 athlete in the nation and the publication's No. 3 player in Georgia."

More after the jump...

The other Seminole defenders you should be familiar with are linebacker Dekoda Watson and corner Patrick Robinson.

Here's the 2009 outlook on both players:

Watson -

"...one of the most athletic players in the ACC, Watson was named seventh on ESPN's top 10 list of workout warriors...the senior has 48" shoulders and a 26" waist and is as athletic as any member of the team...an explosive linebacker who understands the game and spent most of the 2009 spring coaching the young linebackers while recovering from Tommy John surgery...should be fully cleared to participate come preseason...will be counted on to lead the front seven and add to his career sack total...16.0 tackles for loss in the last two seasons and five career sacks...the team's leading returning tackler with 119 in his career...the most versatile defender in Garnet & Gold Watson has two career interceptions, one returned for a TD, eight pass break-ups, two fumble recoveries, one of those was taken back for a touchdown as well, 19.5 tackles for loss and two blocked kicks...his is just 2.5 TFL from moving into the top 20 all-time at Florida State...a positive and enthusiastic leader for Mickey Andrews' young defense, Watson will be the player teammates turn to all season long."

Robinson -

"Coaches expect Robinson to have a dominant senior season...played in 33 games during the first three years of his career while earning 13 starting assignments...former Seminole Terrell Buckley believes Robinson will emerge as the next great Seminole defensive back in 2009...should be a candidate for All-ACC honors...has the ability to be a candidate for the Jim Thorpe Award...excellent cover skills and a physical presence on the field...leads all returning players with seven career interceptions...all seven of his career interceptions have come in conference play...just two picks away from entering the top 20 all-time for career INTs...his seven career interceptions are the most by any returning Seminole...rarely tested this spring by Seminole quarterbacks...Hinesman Award winner as the most dominant player this past spring...broke up more passes (4) then completions allowed (3) in eight spring scrimmages...joined Terrell Buckley and Deion Sanders as defensive backs to win the Hinesman Award...also named the defense's MVP...received the top grade in every category among FSU defensive backs this past spring."

In other words, Florida State's defense is very athletic and talented. Not on the same scale overall as Oklahoma but there are some real playmakers. Fortunately for the Cougars probably their weakest area is their defensive line. Despite BYU's lack of depth up front, they have a 54 lb. weight average advantage over FSU's D-line. The Cougar line should be able to buy Max Hall plenty of time to operate and find his targets. Look for both Dennis Pitta and Andrew George to play key roles, as well as the backs - Unga, Tonga, Kariya and DiLuigi - to all be involved.

On the other side of the ball the Seminoles have an athletic and experienced QB in Christian Ponder. Ponder has the ability to get out of the pocket not unlike Washington's Jake Locker. In a game against Miami last season, Ponder rushed for 144 yards.

Still, FSU's O-line is probably not as good as OU's even with the Sooners' lack of experience. The Seminoles' front has had a difficult time creating room for tailbacks Jermaine Thomas and Ty Jones in their games thus far. BYU has proven to be adequate against the run in their prior contests. I'm looking for Jan Jorgensen to get his first sack of 2009 this week on the home field. The Seminole's largest O-lineman is a mere 288 lbs. If Hooks, Pendleton, Clawson, Nelson and co. continue to fill the gaps and the Te'o/Bills step up with Johnson out, it could spell trouble for Bobby Bowden's team.

Finally, I feel that this FSU team has too many playmakers, too much athleticism, and too good of coaches for BYU to annihilate them the way they did Tulane. The Seminole's preseason ranking in the Top 25 wasn't a fluke. The are a good team. They almost beat Miami and the Hurricanes are an excellent team this season. However, BYU has the advantage of being at home, an experienced QB that plays even better at home, they should have a healthier Harvey Unga, and both their O-lineman and D-lineman have some size advantages. I'm calling it BYU 38, FSU 24.

Florida State Seminoles at BYU Cougars Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:24:03 -0000

And so the Seminoles take to the road for the first time this season. Can Florida State take down Brigham Young in Lavell Edwards Stadium? Let's break it down.

Viewing Information: 7PM Eastern. Available on the Versus network. Comcast customers have it, Dish Network customers have it, Direct TV customers do not.
Weather Info: our resident meteorology buffs break it down. The weather looks great!

UPDATE: well we did it. We wrote the article that broke SBNation. It was so epic that the system couldn't handle it and like a shooting star, we couldn't get it back. So there will be no super in-depth breakdown of the Cougar defense and the FSU offense. I don't have time to re-write it. But I will give you a recap

Spread BYU out and run. They aren't big or fast, FSU should be able to run the ball on this defense if they spread them out and make BYU account for the bubble screens via alignment. Oklahoma ran on BYU and they were dumb for not making BYU play honest. FSU needs to keep them honest via the bubble. Stay committed to the run game. I really believe that BYU's defense is not as good as they have shown. Remember the article. BYU can't handle mobile QB's.
Simplify Coverages via the run game and the constraint plays (bubbles, draws, etc). BYU in predictable coverages is much easier to beat than a BYU that can run anything it wants. Make BYU blitz from a greater distance by spreading them. BYU can't handle mobile QB's. if BYU aligns like that, FSU will simply throw Bubble Screens like they did all last year for 10+ yards over and over and over again.
Stay patient. I don't think BYU will blitz much early. Take what they give you while dictating alignment via formation. Force BYU to take risks- both play and formation. When they make their adjustments to FSU's run game, beat them with the play-action pass.
Stay in good down and distance. BYU is not a team that handles play-action well and they can definitely be beat by play-action off of a good running game. Force them to make difficult alginment decisions.
Attack vulnerable players in coverage. Bouman and Hooks (2 middle linebackers) are bad in coverage, and without their staring free safety, BYU will be playing a 215lb and a 206lb safety, both of whom are slow.
Long snap counts. If BYU is going to shift pre-snap, make them show it and then sit in it.
Honestly, the 2nd part of this preview was epic. It had videos and pictures and diagrams and I am really frustrated. Enjoy the look at their offense.
Prediction: FSU rushed for 220 yards and throws for 240 yards, while controlling down and distance reasonably well. Ponder runs the ball a lot more than he has shown this year. FSU scores 31 points to BYU's 28. Player of the game: Offense- Christian Ponder. Defense: Kevin McNiel. See inside for the other author's predictions!

Florida State's Defense against BYU's Offense

They run a power spread attack. What does that mean? Basically, offensive coordinator Robert Anae uses the personnel he has to make his offense, and he just so happens to have a very big running back, a likely NFL tight end, and a talented fullback. The 'Noles will face a shotgun offense featuring multiple non-wide receiver skill position players. Their linemen look to have 28 inch splits (rough guess). For reference, FSU's offensive linemen will use 18" splits this year and used 12 inch splits last year.

Notice how big the splits are. This makes it exceptionally hard for opposing defensive ends to get to the quarterback. In an interesting twist, FSU's defensive ends are horrible so far this season, so that may not matter as much.

Here is an article: BYU Offense and Protection Scheme. It is from Texas Tech, and their current offensive coordinator Anae authored a decent portion. Of particular note is the way they handle twists and stunts by the defensive line.

Here's another on their offense.

Because this year is only two games old, it's important to look at last year's performance and then adjust for the changes in personnel and playcalling. Last year, the Cougar's offense looked like this...

Category	Performance	Nat'l Rank
Total Offense	6.3 Yards/Play	18th
Scoring Offense	34.2 PPG	20th
Passing Offense	310 Passing Yards/ Game	6th
Rushing Offense	134 Rushing Yards/ Game	72nd

That summary makes BYU's offense look really good. But were they really that good, considering their competition level? Actually, they were pretty good. The advanced performance measures indicate that BYU was quite good on offense. Here's a look:

Category	Nat'l Rank
Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	19th
S&P+ (opponent adjusted measure of success and explosiveness)	6th
Rushing S&P+	23rd
Passing S&P+	8th

So the traditional measures say 18th or 20, and the smart measures say 19th or 6th. That's a very good offense. Not Texas Tech, UF, USC, or Penn State good, but comparable to the likes of Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Oregon. I use teams from different conferences to show the importance of adjusting for the quality of defenses faced.

So far in 2009, BYU's offense has had mixed returns. In their landmark win over Oklahoma, BYU averaged 5.0 yards per play against a very good Sooner defense. They managed to score 14 points, and had 4 turnovers. Clearly, that's not impressive, though they did enough to win the game. Against Tulane, they ran an astounding 79 plays, averaging 6.7 yards per snap, which is much better. I have my doubts about their offensive performance against Tulane, however, as they were only up 20-3 at half, and really poured it on when an undermanned Tulane team quit in the 4th quarter. I guess when you're in the MWC, you have to run the score up to get respect. Let's break down their personnel, then get into the game plan. But first...

A haiku:

Hulking Precision

Lacking in Explosion

Touchdown Anyway

Quarterback

Let's start at the QB position, where BYU has a star in Max Hall. He's 6'1" and 200lbs. He's the kind of kid who is a very good college quarterback, but who doesn't have much of a pro future due to his sort of average physical tools. He is however, very accurate and reads defenses very well. He was 1st team All-Mountain West in 2007 and 2nd team last season. Here is what he did in 2008:

Situation (2008)	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
All Games	13	477	330	69%	3957	8.3	35	14	157	37	304
vs. Winning	5	201	129	64%	1550	7.7	8	10	132	40	310
vs. Non-Winning	8	276	201	73%	2407	8.7	27	4	175	35	301
in Wins	10	348	257	74%	3150	9.1	34	6	179	35	315
in Losses (TCU, Utah, Arizona)	3	129	73	57%	807	6.3	1	8	99	43	269
vs. Ranked (AP)	2	83	43	52%	479	5.8	0	7	83	42	240
vs. Unranked (AP)	11	394	287	73%	3478	8.8	35	7	173	36	316

Those are some very impressive overall numbers. The TD-INT Ratio against ranked teams, and in BYU's 3 losses, however, is a huge red flag. Such a red flag that I decided to look closer.

Opponent	Defensive Efficiency (Lower Number is Better)	Nat'l Defensive Rank	BYU Points Scored
TCU	-0.437	8	7
Utah	-0.33	14	24
Florida State	-0.32	20	???
New Mexico	-0.163	38	21
Arizona	-0.126	42	21
UCLA	-0.091	52	59
Air Force	-0.032	59	38
Wyoming	0.071	70	44
Colorado State	0.205	87	45
Utah State	0.222	89	34
Washington	0.379	111	28
San Diego State	0.451	114	41
UNLV	0.516	115	42

TCU and Utah were the only two teams who had a defense similar to FSU's quality, and BYU managed 7 and 24 points, respectively. And BYU was a combined -9 in turnover margin in those two games. I think there is a speed issue. BYU simply cannot replicate FSU's speed in practice using their practice squad. Hall was a combined 43-83 in those two games. He did not throw a TD in either game.

Against Oklahoma this year, Hall went 26-38, for 328 yards, with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. He was also sacked 4 times. BYU managed 14 points. That's still a fine performance, despite the interceptions against a very good Oklahoma Defense.

It would seem that we have a case of beating up on bad opponents- and BYU certainly had a lot of those in their cupcake schedules over the years.

Hall is not a tall quarterback and as a result, he has to rely on throwing lanes (the spaces between his linemen) to see and throw. It's very important to get pressure on Hall because he is is not a runner. He is smart and accurate, however, and if the 'Noles don't get pressure in his face, he will complete some passes and hurt them.

Running Backs

BYU is more than set at the running back position. While BYU doesn't run often, they do run very efficiently, and their passing offense, like most passing attacks, is made much better if they can get the run game going.

At running back, Harvey Unga has had back to back 1,000 yard seasons, and last year went for 1132 on 240 carries (4.7). He also caught 42 balls for 309 yards (7.4). At 6'0" 240, he is a load and BYU will continue to pound him on the ground. He's a good runner but he definitely had a sophomore slump in terms of explosiveness. So far this year he has battled a hamstring injury, but is expected to play against Florida State. How much he can go is a question. His backup is JJ Di Luigi. He's a smaller, quicker kid and looked good against Tulane. Also be on the look out for Brian Kariya.

Fullback Manase Tonga. Tonga is 6'1" 240 and a load. He will pound the ball occasionally, but also blocks very well and catches the ball out of the backfield.

All of BYU's backs do the little things very well. They don't miss blitz pickup assignments. They catch the ball out of the backfield. They don't dance and they do get upfield quickly to gain yards.

Against Oklahoma, BYU rushed 29 times for 47 yards (running plays only, no sacks). That's an average of 1.6 yards per running play. They crushed Tulane for over 200 yards. Take from that what you will.

Receivers/ Tight Ends

BYU is still breaking in two new starting receivers, having to replace Austin Collie, who was far and away the Cougar's best weapon. He left early for the NFL and was BYU's go-to guy. Collie had an NCAA Best 106 catches for 1453 yards and 15 TD's! The Cougars had the 2nd best 3rd down conversion rate in the nation last year, and Collie caught a bunch of those. Also departed Michael Reed, who went 49-589-2. He was the Cougar's #2 receiver (though not their 2nd best receiving option, as you'll see below. So BYU had to replace an NFL wideout (which is pretty rare for BYU), and their #2 wideout.

Their number one weapon is Tight End Dennis Pitta, 6'5" 250lbs. The Senior is a legit NFL Tight End Prospect, consistently listed in the top-5 draft eligible tight end prospects, nationally. Pitta has both the athleticism and the production to back up his status. Last year he had 83 catches for 1083 yards and 6 touchdowns. This year he has improved his game, and caught 7 balls for 90 yards against Oklahoma. He is Hall's prime target, and all 'Nole fans know how much trouble the 'Noles have had covering the tight end (though they are often burned by afterthought tight ends, not necessarily high profile tight ends). Some great tight ends have killed the 'Noles, however, like UVA's Heath Miller and many from Miami. Pitta belongs in that group.

Here's a hilarious fake press-release on FSU's struggles with the tight end position, written by Ricobert11:

TIGHT ENDS MAKING DIFFERENCE IN PRACTICES
August xx, 200x

Coach (fill-in-the-blank) reminded reporters today of his intention to see the TE more involved in FSU offensive playcalling. "[So-and-so player] really impresses us with his athleticism. Believe you me, we will find a way to get that boy the ball."

FSU has looked to get more offensive output from their TEs in light of recent years lack of productivity. "I really just want to help the team out," said returning starter Tight Enderson. "We're really gonna surprise some folks this year. Teams will have to account for all skill players, not just our wide outs."

While FSU has had trouble finding the open TE, other teams have not. Miami TE Dozen Matta-Who scorched FSU's secondary for 9 catches and 173 yards in last year's rivalry game. The year prior, TE Enni-wun In-pads made a show case out of the game with a 15 catch / 227 yard / 4 TD performance, soliciting the first-ever mid-college season NFL free agent contract from the Oakland Raiders. In-pads would later, famously, go on to be the first player to ever sue against his own NFL Draft eligibility status, and win.

FSU has no excuse not to cover this tight end. He is BYU's biggest weapon by a long shot and should be identified on every play. FSU should really treat him as a wide receiver. He's been 1st Team All-Mountain West for 2 years running and should be 1st team All-America. An excellent route runner with glue hands, he will be a challenge for this Nole defense. Luckily, the 'Noles have Dekoda Watson, who has the ability to limit Pitta. If they use Watson to rush the passer, however, they will need to bracket Pitta with other players.

The Cougars also have tight end Andrew George (6'5" 250'), who went for 23 catches, 219 yds, and 6 TDs. In any case, George would start for most teams and is an excellent 2nd tight end option. Against the Sooners, he snagged 3 balls for 26 yards, including a TD off play-action. Watch for him on the goal line.

Trying to fill the void left by Collie is be McKay Jacobson. The 5' 11" 192lb Soph has good speed. As a freshman in 2006 (remember, these kids go on missions. He is 21 as a sophomore), he caught 28 balls for 547 yards and 3 TD's. Against Oklahoma he grabbed 4 balls for 69 yards. BYU has thrown him several middlle and jailbreak screens as well, so be on the lookout for that. I believe that FSU CB Patrick Robinson should be able to handle him one-on-one with very little trouble.

At the "X" receiver position, BYU has O'Neill Chambers. He's 6'2" 208, and one of their bigger targets at wideout. He has excellent hands. Some say he has big play potential, but I haven't seen that yet. The 3rd wide receiver spot right now, the "H", is between Junior Luke Ashworth, Matt Marshall, and Stephen Covey. There's a possibility that Stephen Kozlowski gets in there as well. Really though, BYU prefers to throw to their bevy of backs, tight ends, or the top two wideouts.

All of BYU's wideouts run excellent routes. Their offense features a lot of quick passing and it is built on precision. A lot of their routes are timing routes. BYU's wideouts are where they are supposed to be. They are on the same page with Max Hall. Hall throws the ball before they are open. Oh, and all of them can catch. It's absolutely paramount that FSU's corners play solid man coverage against the Cougars. BYU will eat up zone because they have a very good quarterback and mature (24 yearolds) receivers who understand where the holes are in a zone. Also, FSU plays horrible zone defense. They might not be the fastest, but they are good. I do think this group is missing a big-play threat in Collie.

Offensive Line

The Cougars lost 4 multi-year starters. Three of them were All-Conference as Seniors! The 4th made 28 career starts! In all, BYU loses 153 starts, an incredible number (probably the biggest loss in the nation).

Losing 4 starters means that one guy returns, and he happens to be the Coug's best lineman. Matt Reynolds is to BYU what Andrew Datko was to FSU- a Freshman All-America. BYU threw the ball 500 times last year and Reynolds (who is 21, with his mission and a redshirt), allowed only 1 sack. He's 6'6", 320, and a serious NFL prospect.

Right Tackle will be manned by Junior Nick Alletto, who is considered a good pass protector at 6'6" 318. The Junior busted up his knee this off-season, but looks to have held onto the job. He's also at least 23 years old. They think he is very good in pass protection.

At left guard is was to Jason Speredon, a Junior. He's a junior who has played in 21 games but apparently started none. Suffered from an ACL issue as a redshirt freshman. He's 6'5" 305 and my notes (I keep a little notebook on our opponents) say that coach Bronco Mendenhall had some good things to say about him at some point. He obviously lacks experience against decent competition, however, since he's only played in garbage time. But he is now done for the season with an injury, and was replaced by Braden Hansen, a 6'6" 282lb well touted redshirt freshman who is (surprise) coming off a mission. I don't have much info on him other than to say that he is not as good as the Freshman All-American Reynolds. He was average at best against Oklahoma, but guess what? He is now down with an injury! So he will be replaced by 6'3" 307lb sophomore Marco Thorson, who has never played in a game and is a clear step down from the guy they thought would be starting just 3 weeks ago.

At Right Guard, the Cougars have a promising one in Sophomore Terence Brown. 6'3" 351, he is athletic for his size, though obviously not athletic on an objective scale. BYU says he is smart and should be a three year starter. Like the others, he has little experience (1 start as a freshman, redshirted last year).

At Center, BYU will go with R.J. Willing, a 6'5" 305lb Senior. He started 9 games in 2004 (yes, 2004, so that makes him at least 23 years old, possibly more). He played in 11 games in 2007 and 5 games last year (mostly garbage time, no starts).

This is a decent pass blocking offensive line, I think, but Oklahoma sacked Hall 4 times on 42 passing plays. That's a sack every 10 or so dropbacks, which is terrible. Watching the 4 sacks, all occurred when Hall pulled the ball and tried to move out of the pocket, but encountered pressure from the middle of the line. He did do a nice job protecting the ball, and knew he would go down. 2 were on blitzes and 2 were not. They didn't do all that well with twists and stunts. Check out this picture:

Oklahoma had 8 men within 4yards of the line of scrimmage. This is similar to FSU's prowler. It was tough for BYU to figure out who would rush and who would drop. This play ended in a sack, even though BYU had 7 pass protectors and OU only rushed 5 men.

I have to wonder how BYU will fare with their 3rd left guard in as many weeks. These guys are huge, and do a good job run blocking within the context of BYU's scheme. They also run a lot of screens, but I think they tip them way too early and the new left guard won't help. If FSU was better coached on defense, I would have zero worries about the screen game. They aren't, however, and I'm sure Chuck Amato's crew will mess up. Still, these guys are not great downfield blockers because they are really fat and have no agility.

Attacking BYU

Everyone knows that FSU's Defensive Coordinator has been clueless against teams who spread the formation and then run with their quarterback. If you didn't know that, welcome to our site! Here is a convenient table. You may now throw up in your mouth:

2008		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Against Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Against Teams utilizing the Mobile QB from a spread set	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

Here's the article with an explanation as to why this has happened.

In 2009, FSU allowed Miami's offense to put up 476 yards only 64 plays, over 7 yards per play. 25 first downs and 38 points. The star for the Hurricanes was quarterback Jacory Harris, who torched the 'Noles for a cartoonish 386 yards on 21-34 passing, more than 11 yards per passing play. He was absolutely insane on 1st down, as the Noles concentrated on Miami's run game. Quarterback Jacory Harris torched the FSU defense on first downs, going an incredible 14-18 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, good for an unheard of 247 quarterback rating (yes, a few points from perfect). Florida State allowed almost 16 yards per passing play and over 20 yards per completion! Miami passed far more often than they ran on 1st down and yet FSU made very few adjustments. And it wasn't just one or two long completions. Harris connected on passes of 40, 39, 31, 29, 27, 24, 20, 19, 18, 11, 8, 7, 6, and 5 yards. It continued throughout the game as FSU made no adjustments. Last night, we saw that Miami's offense is quite good as they torched Georgia Tech. Miami's wideouts are awesome. BYU's are not the same type of player, but they are very good in their own way.

But BYU presents an interesting case. They spread their formation, true, but they use Pro-Style personnel! Their best skill players are two full-back sized running backs, and two tight ends. I expect to see some three-wide sets against FSU, but not much in the way of four wide receivers. BYU will also run from the I-Formation, sometimes with Two tight ends. They are multiple to the max.

But this isn't the type of spread FSU usually struggles with. Hall is not a runner. FSU won't hesitate to pursue the runner when there appears to be a handoff, because there is little fear Hall will take off. I am inclined to classify BYU's offense as more of a pro-style, as despite their spread alignment, they do not run their quarterback, and use big personnel. In fact, as I discussed above, it makes sense to call BYU "Big Texas Tech", since that is where their offense came from. BYU makes their living on precise throws and timing routes. The most important key to this game, however, will be to win the battle in the middle. FSU must make BYU one-dimensional. Teams who turn BYU into a throw-only team typically dominate them, as it kills their play-action game. And for the most part, BYU doesn't want to run the ball. They are sometimes quick to abandon the run game, and have done so to their detriment several times in big games in recent years, including against Oklahoma. Getting pressure on Hall, specifically up the middle in his face, forcing him to throw on the move, is also important- but it needs to be done without blitzing a bunch. FSU's defense is made to play the pass. It dominates the pass. If FSU can have any success stopping BYU's run, the 'Nole's defense should be okay against the Cougar's passing attack. That's not to say it will shut it down, but that's not the goal.

Despite their lack of success against the pass against Miami, this Noles defense is still built to play the pass and not the run. I'm not crazy, hear me out on this. Miami found most of its passing success when FSU was focused on stopping the run- 1st down. Look at this breakdown against Oklahoma:

1st down Passing: 14-18, 285 yards, 2TD, 0 Int, No sacks. PERFECT QB RATING
2nd Down and 6 or less Passing: 2-4, 51 yards, 0TD, 0 Int, 0 Sacks, QB Rating 157 (very good)
2nd Down and 7 or more Passing: 1-3, 0 yards
3rd and 4 or less passing: 1-2, 5 yards (1 first down).
3rd and 5+ passing: 3-7, 46 yards, 0TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks QB RATING: 40

As you can see, FSU plays very good pass defense when they know the pass is the overwhelmingly likely play from the offense. But make them worry about the run too much and the Nole's coverages become predictable and they get beat. If BYU is smart, they will try to run the ball and stay balanced against Florida State.

So how does FSU stop this and make BYU become one-dimensional? By winning on-on-one matchups. If they run from their I-formation, FSU will stack the box with athletes and simply dare BYU to beat them to the corner. That probably won't consistently happen. If BYU sees FSU sneaking that 8th man down into the box (and let's be honest, it's not a sneak, FSU just does it), they will need to throw the ball against one-on-one coverage. This is the first crucial one-on-one matchup FSU must win. FSU's cornerbacks must be able to handle BYU's receivers. Patrick Robinson is an elite cornerback and I have no doubt he can accomplish this. On the other side, the duty will fall to Ochuko Jenijie, or Dionte Allen. I'm higher on these guys than most, and in the Nole's cover-1 look, they will liekly help out those two by shading their deep safety. Of course, FSU must still take care of Dennis Pitta, their stud tight end and best player. That should be a joint effort and the idea isn't to shut him down as much as it is to limit him.

If BYU comes out in thier power-spread look, FSU will need to win another one-on-one matchup. With the sizable splits BYU takes, there will be opportunities for FSU's interior defensive line to make tackles for loss. That happens through using quickness to achieve penetration. FSU is going to need Stewart and McDaniel to be quicker off the ball than BYU's bigs. Tackles for loss are crucial when BYU runs from the gun because they use momentum runners. That is, BYU's guys take a bit to get going, but once they start rumbling, they are difficult to bring down. Much like Jerome Bettis, making these guys move laterally in the backfield will be key, as it will take away their ability to gain speed and momentum. Tackling low around the legs will be key. FSU should not shy away from bringing some early run pressure and shooting gaps. Sure, this leaves them more vulnerable deep, but if FSU has any shot to win this game, they must dare BYU to beat them deep and win that gamble.

This is an achievable goal. And it is one FSU is very aware of (nice article by Steve Ellis). BYU abandoned the run against TCU a year ago after TCU jumped out to an early lead. The Cougars ran only 20 rushing plays anf 50! passing plays. BYU averaged less than 2 yards per rush. Last year in the Bowl game the Cougars called only 30 rushing plays, compared to 48 passing plays. And this year against Oklahoma, BYU called 28 running plays and 43 passing plays. Want more proof that BYU doesn't really like to run? Against Oklahoma, when faced with 2nd and 7 or more, BYU ran just 3 times and threw 17 times. That is what we call a tendency, folks. Stop them on 1st down and they will give up on the run. Also, when they did run on 2nd and 7+, OU stuffed them. OU might have been too draw-conscious actually, as BYU beat them with play action (draw action) down the field a few times. He was really great at throwing underneath on 2nd and 7+ to bring up a manageable 3rd down. BYU is a throw team, and FSU just needs to encourage them in that direction a little bit to ensure they forget the run.

Coach Bowden indicated that redshirt Freshman Strong Safety/ Rover Nick Moody would likely start against BYU. That's a good thing. Moody is an intimidator over the middle and he could lay out a BYU wideout or two. While not great in coverage yet, he definitely plays the run well and I imagine FSU will use him on some blitzes as well. He is an intimidator.

Make BYU win the low percentage game.

At this point, it's probably a good idea to stop on over and read Chris Brown's article on coverages. FSU should be able to cover BYU's wideouts deep on a reasonably consistent basis without a whole lot of safety help. BYU runs a timing offense and throws into windows and spaces. The goal is to force the Cougars into beating FSU through the use of low percentage plays. A 5-yard slant against loose zone coverage is a high percentage play. BYU is so good at throwing that stuff that if FSU gives them that, they stand almost no chance of stopping the Cougars. But Max Hall really isn't much or a deep-ball thrower. Sure, every QB can loft the ball downfield, but I am talking about the more challenging throws. I'm talking about out-routes, skinny posts, etc. If BYU is going to throw all over Florida State, the 'Noles better be sure that they force the Cougars to do it via low percentage passes.

In order to disrupt the air-raid offense, you have to mess with their timing. I spoke with Chris Brown and he said that FSU needs to tackle on the short stuff, confuse and pressure hall without being reckless, and key and recognize formations and route combinations. It's a tall task, particularly because FSU's defensive coaches haven't been very good at communicating tendencies to their players. But it is doable, and it is doable because FSU can handle BYU's wideouts in man coverage.

As I previously stayed, BYU absolutely rips zone coverage. FSU plays below average zone coverage, at best. The Noles will play majority man coverage then, but with a twist. They'll play primarily man with zone defenders sprinkled in. Because FSU isn't really all that worried about BYU's receivers on the outside, they will look to flood the short and intermediate passing lanes. And they can do this by playing Cover-1 press, Cover-1 robber, and something I like to call cover-0 robber.

For the explanation of Cover-1 Robber, please go see Chris' article. The basic premise here is that if FSU is playing man coverage, BYU is going to try and hit some crossing routes. And they will hit them. But with the "robber" in the shallow middle, or wherever FSU aligns him, Max Hall might have to think twice about throwing that crossing route. Alabama did this beautifully last year to Georgia. The goal here is to get Hall to double clutch, double pump, or just hesitate a second. Is the crossing route really open? Put some doubt in Hall's mind. There's a lot of defenders to read inside of a small area. If Hall tries to re-set in the pocket because the route is either not open, or because Hall thinks it might not be open, that could be enough time for FSU's non-blitz pass rush to get to him. In addition, FSU can press out of this look, knowing that there is at least some safety help over the top. The press is a great way to disrupt timing routes and puts some doubt in a quarterback's mind. The weaknesses here are the deep ball to the outside part of the field (difficult throw), and play-action. Remember how I discussed the importance of getting BYU out of the run game? This is why. If BYU isn't running well, it will diminish the effect of the play-action fake. The robber coverage can also be effective against pick routes, particularly out of the bunch formations, because often times the throw coming out of those alignments is a slant or crossing route over the middle. Hall doesn't do a great job of keeping his eye's downfield when he re-sets in the pocket from what I have seen,

When BYU uses multiple tight ends, I think FSU can throw another wrinkle at them. Excuse my crude drawing, but my MS Paint is not my forte. I call this Cover-0 Double Robber.

FSU already plays a good bit of cover-0, but this is a nice wrinkle, particularly when BYU uses two tight ends and plays from the shotgun. It enables FSU to have a lot of guys very close to the line of scrimmage, yet has two free-lancing defenders (guys in yellow). Again, this should be effective against BYU's run game, but it should also force Max Hall to hold the ball. He'll think a blitz is coming, because of how many men are up at the line of scrimmage, but when he drops back, a blitz does not come and the quick throw he wanted to make is definitely not available. FSU must force Hall to hold the football. Disrupt timing, make him throw the difficult routes down the field, and make him hold the ball so that FSU's pass rushers can get there, without blitzing. BYU is so good at throwing the short and intermediate stuff. Of course, this coverage is vulnerable to the deep ball, not only on the outside, but down the middle as well. This is a known and accepted risk should FSU elect to employ this defense at all. Remember that Miami burned FSU's man-0 coverage several times, but that they have special athletes BYU just doesn't have. BYU must scheme their way down the field, while Miami can sometimes just sprint. BYU's guys won't simply fly by FSU's corners. BYU's wide receivers are so good at making the right reads and sitting down in holes, but it is very difficult for a QB to judge both the trail man on the drag/cross and also a robber coverage guy. FSU's speed enables them to play this coverage at times. Also, Hall will expect blitz out of this look. Everyone is up at the line of scrimmage, but who will be rushing? That's the key. With these 2 coverages, FSU should expect to get beat deep some, but when they do, it will be on low percentage throws.

I also think these coverages will work against their Texas and Angle stuff.

Making Hall re-set in the pocket and taking away his safe throws is smart and effective, but at some point, Hall will realize that FSU is blanketing his short stuff and will look to other routes. That's when FSU will blitz. But FSU must blitz intelligently. They cannot simply walk their blitzers to the line of scrimmage and run. Delayed blitzes should work well here. Hall will think the blitzer is in some sort of zone coverage, but then he rushes in. WIth the Cougar's huge splits, their linemen are vulnerable to this because they don't have the lateral quickness to slide and stop a late charging Nigel Bradham. The key will be to get Hall to think his short stuff is covered, BLITZ, and get there after he has moved on from the short stuff but before he gets to his deep progressions.

FSU has to do a lot better job blitzing as a team. By that I mean that currently, FSU is very selfish when they blitz. FSU will call a blitz, and 5 of the 6 people involved should be making sure they have proper positioning to occupy a speciifc blocker so that the blocker cannot block the blitzing man. The the blitzer rushes in untouched to the QB. Instead, FSU's guys all just try to get the QB. There's no organization or coordination between DE Coach Jodey Allen and LB Chuck Amato here, and there should be. Timing also plays a big factor here. Shocker here, but if the offense knows you are blitzing, they will have an easier job accounting for you! Imagine that! When FSU does blitz in a well-timed fashion, it seems more like luck than an intentional, organized plan.

On the Prowl. Remember how BYU isn't very good throwing in long situations? Most teams aren't. Hall doesn't have the arm to drive the ball downfield into tight windows. His ball flutters and often hangs. If FSU can stop BYU's run, or if BYU just falls in love with the pass, FSU will have a chance to break out their prowler formation. Remember that BYU's offensive line is huge but slow. One false step by a Cougar offensive lineman could spell doom for Max Hall because they can't move laterally quick enough to handle a blitzing defender. In any case, FSU likes to line up guys in crazy spots, with everyone standing up and only onw down lineman. FSU got the idea from summer trips to New England and Pittsburgh. It's very tough for the offense to know who is blitzing and who is in coverage. The Giants under Bill Belichek and Parcells used this to perfection against the Buffalo Bills in super bowl XLii in Tampa. Jim Kelley's shotgun offense was limited by the uncertainty. Against an offense that is based on automatic throws "if he is here, I throw here", FSU must create some uncertainty as to the QB's reads, and at the very least, must make him choose the difficult throws on his decision tree. The key though is to make BYU 1-dimensional. A good team will run right at the prowler if a defense employs it in a non obvious passing down situation.

Here's a good look at the prowler: (click to enlarge and read)

Remember, force 3rd and long!

Also, be careful of the Screen game. BYU runs a lot of screens, which is another reason not to blitz heavily (though faking the blitz and backing off should be great). I don't think BYU is a great screen team because their linemen are so slow, but they run them well enough. They also ran a Shovel-pass last weekend. Here's a screencap:

The guy in red is the pitch man. Tulane covered it so Hall kept it, but I don't expect to see this from BYU against FSU. They probably just ran it so FSU would have to waste practice time defending it.

In the end, I think FSU can be successful making Hall hesitate, forcing him into difficult throws, pressuring him once he is comfortable, and keeping him from being perfect. BYU will get their 28 points and 415 yards, but they will also have 2 or 3 turnovers. I just don't trust this defensive coaching staff to both come up with and impart a cohesive, logical gameplan to FSU's players. Thus, I can't see them Holding BYU under 24 points. But 28 is reasonable because FSU will get to the ball faster than some of BYU's other opponents, and that could rattle Hall and his receivers. I would not be at all surprised to see a tipped pass go for an interception the other way.

Welcome back to "The Final Score," our weekly prediction column that our readers have been clamoring for all week. This is where we, the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation, match our through in-depth understanding, analytical skills, wisdom, and football knowledge, against you the readers psychic abilities, or better yet, guesses, for Saturday's expected shoot out between our Florida State Seminoles and the Cougars from BYU.

Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I would like to recognize loyal Tomahawk Nation reader chris28, who last week won something shiny for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in last weeks FSU-Jax St near debacle. Congratulations chris28.

So let's get it on.

First we will start with the predictions from kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homer authors here at TN, or even better yet, THE GOOD GUYS.

The K-Man= FSU 27 - BYU 21

oline0175= FSU 28 - BYU 24

MattDNole= FSU 31 - BYU 28

nolesblogger= FSU 35 - BYU 31

TrueCubbie= FSU 35 - BYU 33

pbysh= FSU 28 - BYU 24

FrankDNole= FSU 45 - BYU 35

Next, here are the predictions from those no-good, know nothings, or those we lovingly refer to as, THE BAD GUYS.

Nattylite= BYU 49 - FSU 24

SWFLNole= BYU 38 - FSU 28

FSUSOM= BYU 48 - FSU 35

Fsued= BYU 28 - FSU 24

And finally, we have

ricobert1= who is MIA, but will be added to one of the two categories when he responds,

and of course

FSUn= TBA in the upcoming Game Preview.

Now we are eager to learn what the most knowledgeable Nole fans on any of the FSU boards expect the final score to be for this game. Once again, the prize will be something shiny which will be given for the closest prediction (not spread) to the final score. At the end of the season, the reader (or author) who has won the most Shiny Awards will receive the grand prize, a much larger and shinier prize.

ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY? WELL ARE YOU PUNKS?

Mickey Andrews, Jimbo Fisher, and Christian Ponder Press Conference

FSUncensored — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:04:36 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder says his much improved performance is a credit to his improved offensive line and trust in his receivers. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

Note: left out much of the generic praise for BYU. Tried to include the specifics. These are not exact quotes, but should be close and do capture the general gist of what they said.

Mickey Andrews

We gave up 150 yards as freshmen were trying to gain experience.
We finished a lot better in the fourth quarter
on BYU: They are as deep at running back as any team we’ll play. The quarterback gets rid of the football in a hurry and the TE may be the be the best in the country
We have to be able to win 1-on-1’s with our pass rush to be successful.
Pleased with the way Nick Moody stepped into the starting lineup. McNeil could be as good a player as we’ve got on defense. He’s working as hard as he can at practice.
on Jacobbi McDaniel: He’s a big strong kid and forcing that fumble was a big play for us. He’s making progress, he’s just scratching the surface right now.
Dekoda Watson: He runs faster than most coming around the end and he has great ability to get to the quarterback.
First game Greg Reid kid had a ton of big plays, this game he missed the opportunities for big plays.
BYU runs a lot more screens this year.
Reduced numbers of missed assignments and tackles but nowhere near being satisfied.
It’s the consistency you play at, provided you’re playing at a level which helps your team.
Players win football games, coaches don’t win football games.
On playing old offenses versus new offenses [we've discussed this at length]: Shut down the 2 wide receivers, shut them down, put your other 9 on what’s left, and just win. Now, if i can’t block you, I just most you out of the box (spread). Now they are going to split you out, count your numbers, and decide where to run. never had to defend against the QB unless you’re playing against an option team. Now the defensive calls you have to make are totally different than you do when they are bunched up.
Dionte Allen had his best ballgame since he’s been here. had 1 or 2 sacks. dropped an intercept.

Jimbo Fisher and Christian Ponder inside...

FSU Offensive Coordinator Jimbo Fisher

Jermaine Thomas was banged up with the knee (Miami game), tweaked it in practice, and it was a coaches’ decision not to play him much. Not in the doghouse, just had a few guys who were a little healthier.
Tye running good, ball security has been good, being more responsible and taking care of himself better. Good pass blocker, better receiver than I thought. like all the young guys, he’s learning to practice at a high level.
I don’t think people realize the effects a 5 day turnaround has on these kids, can’t prepare, hangover. You’d never play a Thursday after a Saturday game. I tell our guys though, time don’t matter, time moves on.
On the ineffectiveness of the run game at times: At times we had some great runs that bounced and we didn’t make our receiver blocks, but we also missed some plays inside. Uncharacteristic. Everyone was just slightly off.
What do you take from the OU-BYU game? BYU very sound #92 is great. very sound in coverage, mix up their looks a lot, very well coached.
It does help (that jstate played a 3-4 defensive alignment like BYU does), hopefully those 2 days will help us with some of the intricacies and angles. They do a great job of being multiple.
Pass protection issues- mental? Yes, just plain blown assignments. olinemen. backs ran past linebackers twice. more mental, not physical
Mind was a bit slow for everyone. Head not in the game.
Fisher on BYU: I still think some guys were dwelling on the Miami game and that didn’t help us but BYU should bring some emotion back into our team. I hope we take it to the practice field this week.
Goodman as go-to guy: Goodman does a great job as a senior and has done a better job working in space. just had to get the opportunities. Rich does it in the meetings too. He’s very mature and has it together mentally. Young guys need to see that goodman is preparing to have success.
Christian can get us in and out of the good plays. Very valuable. Some QB's can't.
Ponder staying in the pocket- comes with confidence in the OLine and knowledge. He has gone through all 5 progressions at times.
Beating BYU’s blitz is a team effort. Running the ball, and making the site and hot adjustments with the receivers.
We are 1-cut runners, make one cut, use your speed, and get upfield (said in reference to some of the end around plays. Bert Reed needs to trust his teammates that their blocks will be made (w/ reference t Bert running the ball).
Very comfortable using Caz, he knows what to do and is very consistent.
Christian relies on his veterans… Goodman, Owens Piurowski. With time and protection, he can find them and they will get open.
Stroud said Richard looked lost 2 years ago, how did you reach him? Richard did it himself, he decided to change and took it upon himself to lead and lead by example.
BYU is very multiple, they make you beat them, don’t beat themselves. They are big hitters. Earn everything you get. Must bring that consistent intensity.
On the last 3 plays of the Miami game, why was Fortson targeted. Fade was 1-1, we had a 6’2" guy on a 5’11" guy. he’d dominated that in practice. 2nd route, he was the 3rd option. had caz dragging and had rich in back of endzone. 3rd option on final as well, rich in the flat, easterling in the corner (doubled), and it left JMan. We didn’t target him, we threw it to him because he was open.

Quarterback Christian Ponder

Very disciplined, runs a scheme a lot like jsu.
Beating the blitz big- have to do it. If they blitz we have to make them pay with big plays.
Ty Jones does a lot of good things.
Player's only meeting, hosting, later today, just to make sure everyone's mind is right.
No energy level in the lockerroom, nobody was excited to play it seemed.
Rod and Caz and Richard all excellent.
The offense can't miss assignments like we did. MUST put in the time.
I know Richard Goodman will get open and catch the ball. The last catch was more him than it was me, great route adjustment, I actually brought the safety into the play more than I should have.
With where the running game is, we're throwing more than anticipated.
Seeing the field a lot better. much better. but also knowing where to look. not forcing things. wanted it so bad last year, this year not forcing things.
Understands concepts. if 1st guy is covered, that means #2 is definitely open.
I can stand back there all day. big difference from last year. I trust my OLine this year and this year they are giving me time and it is ridiculous.
Blitz communication is verbal and nonverbal. beating the blitz is done in the film room and the practice field.

Also, if you want to listen to these live for free, you can go to Seminoles.com every Monday at 1:30. Not sure if they are still putting them on I-Tunes.

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East