SB Nation - Kendall Smith

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Linebackers

FrankDNole — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 20:37:07 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

Thank you for playing along, and we are almost finished. So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, the Secondary, and the Offensive Backfield, will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Linebackers, to determine if this unit has progressed, expected to continue at the same level, or regressed, in comparison to last years linebacking unit.

Going into this last offseason, all 3 of the units making up the defense (defensive line, linebackers, and secondary) clearly needed to be addressed if there was going to be any noticeable improvement in 2009

With the graduation of Derek Nicholson and Toddrick Verdell, the Seminoles lost their top two tacklers of the 2008 season. The pair combined for 147 tackles, 23 TFL, 5 Scks, 5 QBH, 3 FF, 4 FR, 2 PBU, and 1 INT. With these two players now gone, this revamped linebacking corps is considered by many to be the main concern of the entire defensive unit.

All of the LB position were wide open for competition during this last spring drills, and while there was some very good competition for the two starting jobs left open, many questions remain unanswered. Chuck Amato only had six scholarship linebackers available during those drills, and with Dekoda Watson out rehabbing his elbow, the offense shredded the defense for most of the spring. In addition, four of the six linebackers on the spring two-deeps were just sophomores.

Even though they will be playing together as a unit for the first time, there has been some talk that the linebacking corps have developed a close knit relationship, both on and off the field during this past off season. I hope that this is the case, because they will need to communicate, trust, and to cover for each other when mistakes are made.

Let's get right to it.

LINEBACKERS

2008 STRONG SIDE LINEBACKER=Dekoda Watson started 7 games, Kendall Smith started 3 games, and Kenny Ingram started 3. Ingram who was listed as a safety, filled in due to injuries and suspensions and he is now gone.

2009 PROJECTED STRONG SIDE LINEBACKER=Dekoda Watson, Nigel Carr (soph), and Mister Alexander(Soph)

Dekoda Watson=Going into his last season at FSU and one of the few defensive veterans left over from the 2008 campaign, Watson is expected to be the emotional and physical leader of the Seminole defense this year. Watson was the lone Seminole to land a spot on the All-ACC defensive squad. He has recorded 96 tackles over the last two seasons for Florida State and he played his best football at the end of 2008 with 28 tackles over the final four games of the year. An athletic linebacker, who reminds me some of Michael Boulware, Watson nearly matched his career high in tackles (50) last season (47) despite missing six starts due to the suspension and to various injuries. Watson missed all of the spring sessions after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, but contributed as a coach by teaching and helping to develop the younger linebackers. He has the athleticism, the big-play ability, anticipates the snap count very well, and explodes on movement. Watson is amazingly strong for his size with 48" shoulders and a 26" waist. While recovering from his surgery, since he could only do ab exercises, he was quoted as saying "I’ve got abs to my throat almost."

2008 MIDDLE LINEBACKER=Derek Nicholson started all 13 games, was the leading tackler and he is gone. TT=81, TFL=15, SCK=1, QBH=3, PBU=1, FR=4, FF=2.

2008 PROJECTED MIDDLE LINEBACKER=Junior Kendall Smith will get the first crack at replacing Nicholson, followed by Senior Recardo Wright.

2008 WEAKSIDE LINEBACKER=Toddrick Verdell started 12 games, was the teams 2nd leading tackler, and he too has left. TT=66, TFL=8, SCK=4, INT=1, PBU=1, QBH=2, FF=1. Verdell injured his groin against Colorado and sat out against Miami, when Bradham started in his place.

2008 PROJECTED WEAKSIDE LINEBACKER=Two true sophomores Nigel Bradham, and Nigel Carr sit atop the depth chart as the weakside linebacker.

OTHERS WHO CONTRIBUTED IN 2008 AND ARE OUT=Vince Williams is injured

OTHERS WHO MAY CONTRIBUTE IN 2009=???????????

So there you have it. There are some pretty big shoes to fill and there are many questions that need to be answered by this years linebacking unit. The biggest question I think, is how well has Dekoda Watson recovered from his surgery. This question will start to be answered later today as practice finally begins. Can Smith and the 2 Nigels perform as effectively, or anywhere near the level of Nicholson and Verdell? Can this unit, with it's lack of depth, stay healthy all season? Does Chuck Amato still have it in him, and can he work any kind of miracles with this group?

My answer to every question with the exception of Watson's recovery is NO!

If Watson has truly and fully recovered, and if he can stay healthy, IMO the strongside position will PROGRESS.

IMO, the middle and weakside linebacking positions will REGRESS.

The lack of depth of this unit is a major concern. I hope I am wrong, but I have no confidence in Amato and I don't think he will bring much to the party. And finally, while this is not part of this debate, my questions about the defensive lines ability to keep blockers off the LB's, will only add to the hardships this group faces this season.

Therefore,

MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE LINEBACKERS=REGRESSION

What is your bottom line? Please vote now.

Poll

2009 FSU LINEBACKERS-PROGRESSION, CONTINUATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the story before voting. Poll closes Sunday August 9, at 11:55 PM.

PROGRESSION

146 votes

CONTINUATION

91 votes

REGRESSION

45 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

FSU linebacker Maurice "Smiley" Harris arrested on stolen auto charges. Will FSU release the worthless linebacker?

FSUncensored — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:57:58 -0000

On a day that saw Florida State address its future by securing commitments from three promising recruits, the 'Noles must deal with their past as yet another member of Jeff Bowden's disastrous final recruiting class has thrust Florida State into the news for the wrong reasons.

Florida State redshirt sophomore linebacker Maurice "Smiley" Harris was arrested Monday night for 2 felonies relating to driving a stolen vehicle and a traffic violation. No matter the nature of the charge nor his guilt or innocence, he has brought bad press to the University.

"Smiley" is another example of the failed 2007 recruiting class, a class cobbled together by Lazy recruiter and soon (in late 2006 early 2007) to be fired offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden. Of the 20 member class, only 12 remain. Cameron Wade and Maurice Harris are very likely to be booted from the team within the coming year because they lack talent, are lazy, and are undisciplined. Frequent readers will remember that we called for Cam Wade's dismissal because he is not a team player, doesn't have D1 talent, and is a general drag on the program undeserving of a scholarship that could be given to someone with you know, "actual talent." FSU should not have to honor scholarships for the recruiting failures of Jeff Bowden. They have not bought into the new demands of Jimbo Fisher and the new staff. Of the 12 remaining players (current juniors or redshirt sophomores), only 4 are starters. OG Rodney Hudson (recruited late in the process by FSU offensive line coach RIck Trickett- not a Jeff Bowden recruit), WR's Tiawan Easterling (recruited in the final week before signing day by Jimbo Fisher- not a Jeff Bowden recruit), Bert Reed, and LB Kendall Smith.

Let's be clear: Smiley is a bad player. He is tiny and cannot play linebacker on the division one level. He didn't get the job done in the weight room to gain the necessary size and was really a questionable recruit by the 'Noles in the first place. He was a backup with no chance of seeing meaningful playing time.

Jeff Bowden's terrible work ethic continues to haunt FSU to this day. His dad can't control the misfits he brought to the program, while by comparison, Fisher's kids have been considerably better behaved.

There's another problem with Harris, however, and that is that besides being a woefully undersized immature non-contributor, he is LB Coach Chuck Amato's only South Florida recruit in his second stint with the 'Noles. Sure, he was a member of the final Jeff Bowden class, but Amato is the "recruiter of record." Amato is supposedly a great South Florida recruiter, but he has only one south Florida commitment in his three years back (Harris). Cutting Harris would be an embarrassment for Amato, who has already drawn criticism for his poor linebacker coaching, allowing his backers to be consistently undisciplined. Chuck is in charge of discipline on the team, but will he act for the greater good or will he go for the ego play? Can he risk everyone realizing that his only South Florida recruit in three years, questionably talented at the time, has already failed? Without his South Florida recruiting prowess or linebackers who are producing for him, Amato would be reduced to little more than a glorified maid, requiring that player's lockers be straight at all times.

Smiley is garbage and should be off the team. Players who are marginal at best cannot embarrass the team and must be made an example of. Double standards exist for a reason. FSU's boosters should not tolerate this trash. Hopefully we can all celebrate when his scholarship is rightfully given to a deserving player with talent and work ethic.

Size Matters Part Deux: Evaluating ACC Run Defenses by Sacking the Sack

FSUncensored — Mon, 11 May 2009 07:09:50 -0000

In the second part of the "Size Matters" series, we attempt to better gauge run defense by focusing only on running plays. Obvious enough as that may sound, it's not quite that easy.

Note: If you haven't read part one, you need to do that first.

Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, many fans still believe last year's defense was an elite unit. It's not that these fans are dumb or lazy. They just don't know what to look for.

The defense had good total numbers last year, finishing 2nd in the ACC in yards allowed, but that's not the important stat. Why? Total defense doesn't account for how many times the opponent had the ball, which is as much a function of a team's offense as it is a team's defense. Simply put, FSU's offense held the ball for long stretches last year, averaging the 2nd most time per game in ACC play. In fact, FSU's defense faced the second fewest offensive plays per ACC game. It is much easier to have a "good defense" if your defense faces fewer plays per game than everyone else, if you define “good defense” in terms of total defense. The mainstream media is just catching on to this, but I expect Tomahawk Nation readers to understand that yards per play is a much better measure than total defense.

But this article is about run defense, and even those who rely on aggregate numbers can see that last year's run defense was not special. And I hope that they are willing to step out on the ledge and accept "yards per carry" as a measure of rushing success. Well, how about Yards Per Carry Allowed? To the Chart!

NOTE: Numbers are from ACC games only, as out of conference scheduling varies wildly from team to team.

Name	Att	Yards	Avg.
Boston College	298	830	2.8
Wake Forest	254	784	3.1
Virginia Tech	312	996	3.2
Virginia	327	1097	3.4
Florida State	265	995	3.8
Georgia Tech	270	1018	3.8
Duke	333	1265	3.8
North Carolina	297	1140	3.8
Clemson	285	1121	3.9
North Carolina State	256	1027	4.0
Maryland	317	1345	4.2
Miami (Florida)	344	1497	4.4

So, FSU was tied for 5th, along with 3 other teams allowing 3.8 yards per "carry". That's certainly not what we expect from a Mickey Andrews defense. We wish we could say FSU's run defense was better than that 3.8 yards per "carry" suggests, but that is not the case. There's a reason why we used quotation marks around carry. FSU's 2008 run defense was broken.

In American football, a carry is a statistical term equivalent to a single rushing play. A sack is defined as tackling a ball carrier who intends to throw a forward pass. A sack is also awarded if a player forces a fumble of the ball, or the ball carrier to go out of bounds, behind the line of scrimmage on an apparent intended forward pass play.

For reasons that are probably rooted in the college game's option roots, the NCAA counts a sack as a running play. The NFL does not. This us dumb, especially when you consider that official scorers denote sacks in the same way (see above definition). Can we all agree that a properly scored sack is not a running play?

While conceding that there are differences in each stadium's official scorer, let's have a look at run defense against running plays. Let's sack the sack. A sack is an outcome of a passing play, and in a later article we'll include sacks where they belong. Here are the sack results from the 2008 ACC season:

Team	Sacks	Yards Lost
Virginia Tech *	27	240
Boston College *	25	161
Florida State	24	179
Miami (Florida)	19	134
Duke	18	95
Georgia Tech	17	128
Maryland	17	85
Virginia	16	125
Wake Forest	15	92
North Carolina State	14	94
North Carolina	12	66
Clemson	9	65
* Includes ACC Championship Game

Florida State had the conference's best pass rush in 2008, led by All-American Everette Brown. The goal here, however, is to find the most accurate gauge of run defense. To do that, we need to sack the sack.

That's atrocious. 2nd worst in the conference isn't an off year. It's a serious problem that needs to be immediately addressed. The problem is, we're not even sure FSU knows it has this problem.

That's 1174 rushing yards allowed on 241 carries, for an average of 4.87 given up per carry. We really can't underestimate the magnitude of this problem.2nd worst in the conference is not an off year, it's a systemic issue.

This chart illustrates how much each team benefited from their sack numbers being included in their run defense totals.

In Part One (see link in lead paragraph), we discussed the reasons for FSU's poor run defense. Simply put, FSU's defense lacks the minimum bulk in its front 7 defenders to stop the run without dedicating another defender (from the secondary) to the cause. Committing an extra defender to the run overtaxes our secondary, leaving us vulnerable to play action fakes. FSU further complicates matters by misusing its resources and playing guys out of position (most notably at strong side defensive end and outside linebacker). See the first article for a huge explanation.

As a last check of our numbers, we put together a game-by-game chart.

Opponent	YPCA w/o Sacks	Carries (w/o Sacks)	Rush Yards Allowed (w/o Sacks)	Att	Yards	Avg.	Sacks	Sack Yards
Wake Forest	2.1	36	75	38	59	1.6	2	16
Miami	5.8	12	69	14	51	3.6	2	18
N.C. St.	7.9	21	166	22	157	7.1	1	9
15 Virginia Tech	4.2	28	117	34	82	2.4	6	35
Georgia Tech	6.4	45	288	45	288	6.4	0	0
Clemson	4.3	30	128	36	79	2.2	6	49
Boston College	4.0	46	185	47	176	3.7	1	9
Maryland	6.3	23	146	29	103	3.6	6	43

7 of the 8 conference opponents ran for 4 or more yards once sacks were excluded, and half the opponents ripped off over five and a half yards per carry.

You don't have to take our word for it, however, as there are far more advanced metrics saying the same thing: FSU's run defense was really poor. For instance, Bill Connelly of RockMNation (Missouri) and FootballOutsiders (where he writes the widely acclaimed Varsity Numbers column). Connelly's "Conference Report" is often referenced here, as it focuses only on conference games. Here we see Bill's Run Defense Efficiency Data and made it into a handy graph. Note that this data does include sacks as running plays, we think (though we hope Bill will exclude that next year). While it does include sacks, it is adjusted for opponent (some teams didn't have to play top running offenses like FSU or Ga. Tech) and doesn't include numbers after the game is already a blowout. The higher number is better. A score of 100 is about average. FSU scored a 95.6, a score placing them in the bottom half of the conference. VT and FSU clearly receive an undeserved bump due to their sack numbers here, jumping 6 and 3 spots ahead of their rankings in the "rushing yards per carry allowed without sacks" category. The key point here is that FSU is again not a good run defense.

If these numbers excluded sacks, FSU might be dead last (as opposed to 2nd to last in our less refined measure).

This problem likely won't be fixed this year as FSU doesn't have the personnel in its front 7 after the wasted 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes, and it could get significantly worse if injuries strike the 'Noles. It is up to Jimbo and the future staff to make sure guys play the proper position and to recruit the players the FSU needs to execute its defense of choice. As noted in part one, this includes having Everette Dawkins play his natural position (Strongside End), moving Nigel Bradham to the opposite side, and having a bigger middle linebacker.

GO NOLES!!

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