SB Nation - Kendrick Stewart

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Monday Morning Tomahawks- 08.03.2009 Edition

FSUncensored — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:36:48 -0000

It was a busy weekend for the 'Noles. Let's have a look at the news coming out of Tallahassee.

Much recruiting news
FSU's defense is getting bigger. Is it big enough?
FSU's tight ends could be a big factor this season.
Much more, including some heavy analytics stuff.

As you probably know, Marcus Lattimore named his top five schools and FSU did not make the list. The stud runner from Byrnes HS (SC) is being negatively recruited and FSU does not have a real shot, it appears. FSU will move on and pursue other running backs. See the Big Recruiting Board for more: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/3/3/778241/2010-recruiting-big-board

You might remember our piece on the relationship between front seven size and defensive performance. FSU was very small last year. They should be somewhat bigger this year.

FSU's McDaniel, McAllister have to be ready | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
McDaniel is 6'0" 288lbs McAllister is 6'5" 262lbs

Seminoles perform well on strength and agility | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
Kendrick Stewart up to 278lbs, from 265lbs.

FSU's Mincey makes big strides | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
Mincey is up to 272lbs (from 256 last year) and is making huge strides in strength and conditioning.

Two things here. First, the 'Noles are still too small and will not reach the magic threshold of 1830lbs. Second, they are bigger this year and that's a step in the right direction.

Increase in playing time for Seminole tight ends? | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
FSU will use more two-tight end sets this year because they don't have a fullback. Also, Jabarris Little has increased his work ethic, which he needed to do, going from 222lbs to 237.

A Look at 2008 Season Parity - From The Rumble Seat A look at the ACC's parity vs. the SEC. The ACC really is like the NFL.

Rivals.com College Football - Rivals.com 120 Countdown: No. 14 Ga. Tech Pretty solid.

Smart Football: More on evaluating the run game Read this. It is long and very good. Digest the links he cites.

Looking Ahead: The 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes (Part 1) - Tomahawk Nation
An In-Depth look at the 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes. Part 1 of a 2 part series from Tomahawk Nation.

Looking Ahead: The 2009 ACC Basketball Recruiting Classes (Part 2) - Tomahawk Nation Part 2 of Tomahawk Nation's evaluation of the 2009 ACC Basketball recruiting classes. Who were the winners and losers in this year's class?

Merrill Noel Switches to the Deacons - Tomahawk Nation
This isn't a big deal.

Chantrant.com interviews James Warren (Jamnolfin)- who has signed up over 100 boosters and plans to have 150 by the Miami game. Great job by Chantrant to snag his interview and spread the word.

Ryan Perrilloux is not suspended for the FSU game. Chantrant with another great get.

In my continuing effort to highlight great comments, this one comes from the Off-Season Discussion Thread:

I have a request for an article by people who are much more football-smart than I am
I'm sure there are those of you who watch highlights just as much as I do, and noted the different formations we ran much more of this past year.

I was wondering if someone could explain the advantages of these different packages and how they'd complement our personnel in certain situations.

Like these bunch formations.

It's a really large order, I'm sorry, but any consideration would be really, really cool. Thanks

by pillsburysoldier

And the response:

Nice question
So this is my personal feeling on the bunch formation and just what I found as a player and watching film. I hate the formation when it is used towards the boundary like in the picture.

1. If you look at the defense they have 8 guys 4 without there hand on the ground within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage, that means any one of them could be a blitz candidate making it a nightmare for the oline to pick up. If there is a blitz to the bunch side no chance for the tackle to get out to pick it up because the d end is lined up on his outside shoulder and his job would be to wash him down thus making it a two on one with the running back.

2. Now for the Db's part of it since we are assuming there is a blitz on that would leave the middle backer and the corner back to cover three, well be assured that the safety will be rolling down into coverage also. Since the bunch is to the short side of the field its less area for the guys to cover meaning you don't have to use as many guys in the zone.

3. Since it is a blitz the guys in coverage know that the ball is going to be coming out fast and they don't have to worry about the vertical routes to much since the qb and receiver wont have time to get into them.
Ok thats what I see to the strength of the formation.

4. What I see back side and its a MAJOR tell for me is that the corner is lined up in press coverage Normally if your on an island like that as a corner you give a little cushion so you dont get taken vertical, well if you know that a blitz is coming you press up in order to take away the hot route and anything that would be quick and underneath.

Now im going to pretend im the o coordinator. If I see this Defense im running the football to the weak side of the formation. You can run option even with a slow Qb or you can run power with zone blocking steps.

1. Take notice of the weak side tackle either play you run there is a natural double to the middle back for either the guard center or the guard tackle. Lets pretend that we are running power every offensive lineman is taking his first step with his left foot. Here we go the TE will step down and simply slow the End down, The guard and tackle to the strength of the formation will double the Dtackle to the back side backer. The center and the playside guard will double the Dtackle to the middle backer and the playside tackle will take the end wherever he wants to go if he wants to go down ride him and let the runing back cut off of that if he wants to go upfield run him right past the play. What you will end up with is a running back on a safety every running back coach in america says this make the first guy miss.

2. If you are going to run option even with a SLOW SLOW qb its still perfect, We are going to focus on the playside which will be the single receiver side. You are going to option the Dend which allows the tackle and the guard to double up to the mike, the center will be responsible for making the backside backer scrape all the way over the top of him the backside guard and tackles job is simple cut the backside tackle and end down. Again it will come down to either the Qb or the running back one on one with a safety coming down hill.

by 21nole24

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Progression, Stagnation, or Regression? Noles Defensive Line

FrankDNole — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:55:46 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

Recently I came across a similar series that I thought I could apply to our 2009 Seminoles, which might make for entertaining reading to some of our TN members. While this series may not actually answer my question, it might at least give us something to discuss and debate until more information starts rolling in once the practices actually start.

What I will attempt to do, is to project how our 7 basic units (defensive line, linebackers, secondary, backfield, offensive line, receivers and tight ends, and special teams) of the 2009 Noles will perform as compared to last season team.

The way we will try to come up with a possible answer is to address each of the 7 units above individually, by using the projected 2 deeps as of today, in comparison with last years starters. We will look at who was there last season, analyze the roster changes, if any, and then we will all decide if these changes will result in progression, regression, or if we can expect little or no change.

We must remember that with the kickoff still over a month away, and the start of practices still over one week away, it will be impossible to reach definite conclusions at this time. There could very well be injuries, promotions, demotions, and incoming freshmen who might surprise us all. I will ask you the TN members to project via poll, (your favorite way and the easiest and most accurate measure available to us) how well you expect the 7 individual units will perform this season. At the end of the series, I will report back to you, the TN readers, what your expectations of this team are at this point in time.

Recently NoleThruandThru gave us his projected two-deep lineup and asked you for your thoughts on the 2-deeps. While there were some very good comments and opinions posted as to what may happen before and during the upcoming season, for the purpose of this series I will be using only the official Seminole 2-deep lineups posted along with some projections and input I received from FSUncensored.

Please remember that while we lost some very good individual talent, we want to look at the each unit as a whole when we finally vote on whether that particular unit has progressed, stayed stagnant, or regressed, in comparison to last years unit.

Today we will start with the DEFENSIVE LINE.

2008 DE=Benjamin Lampkin (really a LB) started the first 3 games, then was replaced by Neffy Moffett who started the rest of the season. In 10 games played, Moffett had 19 Total Tackles of which 11 were for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 int, 2 QBH, and forced two fumbles and recovered one. Both players are now gone.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Kevin McNeil and Jamar Jackson

2008 NG=Moses McCray started the first 2 games then was replaced by Budd Thacker who started every remaining game until the Champs Bowl when Paul Griffin started his last game as a Nole. Griffin is the only one gone and only had 11 Total Tackles, 1 for loss, 1 QBH, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED NG=Moses McCray and Budd Thacker

2008 DT=Kendrick Stewart started 8 games and Justin Mincey started 4 games, 3 of which were the last 3 games.

2009 PROJECTED DT=Justin Mincey and Kendrick Stewart

2008 DE=Everette Brownhas left and taken his 36 total tackles of which 21.5 were for losses, 13.5 sacks, 2 pass BU, 3 QBH, 4 FF, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Markus White and Toshmon Stevens.

OTHERS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE: Everett Dawkins (SDE), Brandon Jenkins(WDE), Jacobbi McDaniel (DT), Demonte McAllister (DT/SDE)

Well there you have it. I guess the real question is not if Brown and Moffett can be replaced, but whether their replacements will be able to keep up the kind of pressure on the QB we saw last year, to prevent the rest of the defense from being shredded.

MY PROJECTION: REGRESSION.

What is yours? Please vote now.

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Poll

2009 FSU DEFENSIVE LINE-PROGRESSION, STAGNATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the whole article before voting. Poll closes Friday July 31 at 7:00 PM

PROGRESSION

180 votes

STAGNATION

117 votes

REGRESSION

58 votes

355 votes | Poll has closed

Monday Morning Tomahawks- Wednesday, 07.29.09 Edition

FSUncensored — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:33:58 -0000

The Tomahawk Nation 2009 Official T-Shirts are here! Order today and get them by August 24th!
The Pre-Season All-ACC Team was announced. Did any 'Noles make it?
We were selected to be the Official Florida State blogger for Phil Steele! Yes, that Phil Steele.
How explosive was FSU's offense last year?
FSU Summer Conditioning Blowout. FREE Pictures and FREE Video. Ditch that paysite membership and use the money on a T-Shirt to help support your favorite 'Nole writers? A T-Shirt designed and printed by FSU Alumni?
An excellent look at GTech's passing game
A high quality Clemson Preview
A well written take on the ACC's parity
A statistical breakdown of ACC predictions
And Much More!

Get your Tomahawk Nation 2009 Official T-Shirt! These are high quality, not cheapies, and we're selling them for $20. Picture at the link!

Preseason All-ACC team announced - ACC - ESPN
Florida State got two- Rodney Hudson and Dekoda Watson. VTech and GTech each had three. Clemson had two, and none on defense which is insane considering their defense is even better than VTech's. BC got two linemen. I can't complain here, because McMahon struggled last year. The Coastal had 14 players, the Atlantic 11.

GREENSBORO, N.C. - Florida State senior linebacker Dekoda Watson and junior guard Rodney Hudson earned preseason All-ACC football honors, following Monday's vote by media members attending the league's football kickoff at Grandover Resort.

The Seminoles' lone representatives on the 24-member team, Watson and Hudson were the top vote-getters at their respective positions.

Watson finished fourth on the team with 46 tackles in 2008, despite missing three games and suffering an elbow injury against Colorado in his first appearance of the season. The injury, which required offseason surgery, did not prevent him from posting a career-high 10 tackles and blocking a punt for a safety in the win over the Buffaloes. He closed the season with 28 tackles over the final four games and added a 51-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the Seminoles' Champs Sports Bowl rout of Wisconsin.

Hudson followed up his Freshman All-American campaign in 2007 with an equally-impressive sophomore season, earning first-team All-ACC honors in 2008 as he established himself as one of the top guards in the nation. He participated in a team-high 893 snaps, was penalized only once and allowed one sack while leading all FSU linemen with the top passing or running grade 16 times. Hudson was selected ACC Offensive Linemen of the Week a league-high, three times.

Barnhart Joins CBS College Sports Network's Roster - 2009-07-29 12:09:35 EDT | Multichannel News
Tony Barnhart will join CBS College Sports Network as the host of a primetime college football talk show in September. Since we're with CBS now too, we are being considered for some appearances.

Phil Steele- Florida State
We are now the official FSU correspondent for Phil Steele. This was an off-season update we put together.

ACC Offensive Plays Per Touchdown in 2008 - Gobbler Country
A look at rushing and passing offensive explosiveness for ACC teams in 2008. FSU was 1st in rushing and average in passing.

Florida State football players grade well in bench press tests | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat

Brandon Davis: 1st time benching 400 lbs/power clean of 300 lbs
Andrew Datko: 100 lbs improvement in bench- now 405 lbs (weighs 293lbs w/ 16% bodyfat)
Greenlee: 370>405 lbs in bench- 5.1 40yd dash
Dionte Allen: 225> 300 lbs in bench
AJ Alexander: 225> 300 lbs in bench, 9' 8" Broad Jump
Harley: weighs 210, 375 lbs in bench, 4.31/40yd (crazy), 11ft. Broad Jump
Little: 330>380 in bench
Jacobbi: 385 lbs bench
Nigel Carr had a really nice summer.

Player Workout Photo Gallerylesports.com | Tallahassee Democrat | Covering FSU football and Seminoles sports at Florida State University in Tallahassee, FL
Conditioning Photo Gallery!

via cmsimg.tallahassee.com

Florida State Football Summer Conditioning
50 Pictures of the team and video, plus interviews of Bert Reed and Kendrick Stewart.

Its ClemPson dammit, not Clemzzzun: Clemson Sports Blog: GT: Defending the Run & Shoot
Just an excellent breakdown. Well worth the read.

The Quad Countdown: No. 35 Clemson - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
Clemson has come a long way from its 3-3 start in 2008, but the Tigers have some work to do in order to win the A.C.C. Atlantic division.

The Red Herring of Conference- good stuff from Spencer.

2009 ACC Media Predictions Broken Down - From The Rumble Seat
How accurate are the media's preseason predictions? Bird digs a little deeper inside the numbers.

FootballOutsiders.com Mentions TomahawkNation

Smart Football: Responses to responses about David and Goliath Strategies
Responds to MattDNole's series. Great back and forth.

2009 ACC Media Predictions Broken Down - From The Rumble Seat
How accurate are the media's preseason predictions? Bird digs a little deeper inside the numbers.

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Size Matters Part Deux: Evaluating ACC Run Defenses by Sacking the Sack

FSUncensored — Mon, 11 May 2009 07:09:50 -0000

In the second part of the "Size Matters" series, we attempt to better gauge run defense by focusing only on running plays. Obvious enough as that may sound, it's not quite that easy.

Note: If you haven't read part one, you need to do that first.

Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, many fans still believe last year's defense was an elite unit. It's not that these fans are dumb or lazy. They just don't know what to look for.

The defense had good total numbers last year, finishing 2nd in the ACC in yards allowed, but that's not the important stat. Why? Total defense doesn't account for how many times the opponent had the ball, which is as much a function of a team's offense as it is a team's defense. Simply put, FSU's offense held the ball for long stretches last year, averaging the 2nd most time per game in ACC play. In fact, FSU's defense faced the second fewest offensive plays per ACC game. It is much easier to have a "good defense" if your defense faces fewer plays per game than everyone else, if you define “good defense” in terms of total defense. The mainstream media is just catching on to this, but I expect Tomahawk Nation readers to understand that yards per play is a much better measure than total defense.

But this article is about run defense, and even those who rely on aggregate numbers can see that last year's run defense was not special. And I hope that they are willing to step out on the ledge and accept "yards per carry" as a measure of rushing success. Well, how about Yards Per Carry Allowed? To the Chart!

NOTE: Numbers are from ACC games only, as out of conference scheduling varies wildly from team to team.

Name	Att	Yards	Avg.
Boston College	298	830	2.8
Wake Forest	254	784	3.1
Virginia Tech	312	996	3.2
Virginia	327	1097	3.4
Florida State	265	995	3.8
Georgia Tech	270	1018	3.8
Duke	333	1265	3.8
North Carolina	297	1140	3.8
Clemson	285	1121	3.9
North Carolina State	256	1027	4.0
Maryland	317	1345	4.2
Miami (Florida)	344	1497	4.4

So, FSU was tied for 5th, along with 3 other teams allowing 3.8 yards per "carry". That's certainly not what we expect from a Mickey Andrews defense. We wish we could say FSU's run defense was better than that 3.8 yards per "carry" suggests, but that is not the case. There's a reason why we used quotation marks around carry. FSU's 2008 run defense was broken.

In American football, a carry is a statistical term equivalent to a single rushing play. A sack is defined as tackling a ball carrier who intends to throw a forward pass. A sack is also awarded if a player forces a fumble of the ball, or the ball carrier to go out of bounds, behind the line of scrimmage on an apparent intended forward pass play.

For reasons that are probably rooted in the college game's option roots, the NCAA counts a sack as a running play. The NFL does not. This us dumb, especially when you consider that official scorers denote sacks in the same way (see above definition). Can we all agree that a properly scored sack is not a running play?

While conceding that there are differences in each stadium's official scorer, let's have a look at run defense against running plays. Let's sack the sack. A sack is an outcome of a passing play, and in a later article we'll include sacks where they belong. Here are the sack results from the 2008 ACC season:

Team	Sacks	Yards Lost
Virginia Tech *	27	240
Boston College *	25	161
Florida State	24	179
Miami (Florida)	19	134
Duke	18	95
Georgia Tech	17	128
Maryland	17	85
Virginia	16	125
Wake Forest	15	92
North Carolina State	14	94
North Carolina	12	66
Clemson	9	65
* Includes ACC Championship Game

Florida State had the conference's best pass rush in 2008, led by All-American Everette Brown. The goal here, however, is to find the most accurate gauge of run defense. To do that, we need to sack the sack.

That's atrocious. 2nd worst in the conference isn't an off year. It's a serious problem that needs to be immediately addressed. The problem is, we're not even sure FSU knows it has this problem.

That's 1174 rushing yards allowed on 241 carries, for an average of 4.87 given up per carry. We really can't underestimate the magnitude of this problem.2nd worst in the conference is not an off year, it's a systemic issue.

This chart illustrates how much each team benefited from their sack numbers being included in their run defense totals.

In Part One (see link in lead paragraph), we discussed the reasons for FSU's poor run defense. Simply put, FSU's defense lacks the minimum bulk in its front 7 defenders to stop the run without dedicating another defender (from the secondary) to the cause. Committing an extra defender to the run overtaxes our secondary, leaving us vulnerable to play action fakes. FSU further complicates matters by misusing its resources and playing guys out of position (most notably at strong side defensive end and outside linebacker). See the first article for a huge explanation.

As a last check of our numbers, we put together a game-by-game chart.

Opponent	YPCA w/o Sacks	Carries (w/o Sacks)	Rush Yards Allowed (w/o Sacks)	Att	Yards	Avg.	Sacks	Sack Yards
Wake Forest	2.1	36	75	38	59	1.6	2	16
Miami	5.8	12	69	14	51	3.6	2	18
N.C. St.	7.9	21	166	22	157	7.1	1	9
15 Virginia Tech	4.2	28	117	34	82	2.4	6	35
Georgia Tech	6.4	45	288	45	288	6.4	0	0
Clemson	4.3	30	128	36	79	2.2	6	49
Boston College	4.0	46	185	47	176	3.7	1	9
Maryland	6.3	23	146	29	103	3.6	6	43

7 of the 8 conference opponents ran for 4 or more yards once sacks were excluded, and half the opponents ripped off over five and a half yards per carry.

You don't have to take our word for it, however, as there are far more advanced metrics saying the same thing: FSU's run defense was really poor. For instance, Bill Connelly of RockMNation (Missouri) and FootballOutsiders (where he writes the widely acclaimed Varsity Numbers column). Connelly's "Conference Report" is often referenced here, as it focuses only on conference games. Here we see Bill's Run Defense Efficiency Data and made it into a handy graph. Note that this data does include sacks as running plays, we think (though we hope Bill will exclude that next year). While it does include sacks, it is adjusted for opponent (some teams didn't have to play top running offenses like FSU or Ga. Tech) and doesn't include numbers after the game is already a blowout. The higher number is better. A score of 100 is about average. FSU scored a 95.6, a score placing them in the bottom half of the conference. VT and FSU clearly receive an undeserved bump due to their sack numbers here, jumping 6 and 3 spots ahead of their rankings in the "rushing yards per carry allowed without sacks" category. The key point here is that FSU is again not a good run defense.

If these numbers excluded sacks, FSU might be dead last (as opposed to 2nd to last in our less refined measure).

This problem likely won't be fixed this year as FSU doesn't have the personnel in its front 7 after the wasted 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes, and it could get significantly worse if injuries strike the 'Noles. It is up to Jimbo and the future staff to make sure guys play the proper position and to recruit the players the FSU needs to execute its defense of choice. As noted in part one, this includes having Everette Dawkins play his natural position (Strongside End), moving Nigel Bradham to the opposite side, and having a bigger middle linebacker.

GO NOLES!!

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Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East