SB Nation - Ryan McMahon

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State Football Performance Report 11.17.09

FSUncensored — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:43:29 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Jermaine Thomas (38) runs against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Florida State won, 41-28. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Browse more photos »

Let's start out with something different for a moment. My best friend is serving in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Xerox is sponsoring a project that will send free cards to all of the soldiers. You can fill our your own personalized message and choose from 15 cards drawn by elementary school children across the united states. Here is the link for the project: http://www.LetsSayThanks.com/Home1024.html It takes less than a minute and you'll make a soldier's day.

Now for the offense. FSU went on scoring drives of 81, 79, 68, 68, 43, and 27 yards. 4 offensive touchdowns and 2 field goals. Get some, Wake Forest! Let's break down the offensive performance. As with all photos here, click them to enlarge.

7.2 yards per play is outstanding. In a normal game where FSU gets 70 plays, that's 500+ yard pace. Excellent job EJ. And the gameplan was ridiculously simple. FSU ran some version of the Veer 9 times. Don't tell anyone, but that's basically UF's offense. When they threw the ball it was a screen or a crossing route. I counted 5 passes that traveled more than 8 yards downfield. E.J. Manuel managed the game well and did exactly what FSU asked him to do.

Inside we have more charts, recaps of the press conferences, and highlight videos!

Want to settle your QB down and let him have a nice day? Own 1st down. And that's exactly what FSU did. Of 30 1st down plays, FSU only had two for 20+ yards, but they were successful a superb 53% of the time, and were only held to 1 or fewer yards on 6 of 30 1st down plays. Of those 16 successes, 10 of them were accomplished via Jermaine Thomas. That's important because we're dealing with a young quarterback.

Mmmmm The best offense in the conference kept on hummin'. And there's no scheduling quirk here. FSU has faced 7 of the conference's best 9 defenses.

Oh, and Jeff Cameron of 1270TheTeam Sports Radio had Jimbo Fisher on with him yesterday. Have a listen.

As for individual player breakdowns, I thought the right side of the offensive line did a tremendous job. That's guard David Spurlock and Tackle Zebrie Sanders. This offensive line is already very good, but they might be incredible next year. I really think they surprise teams, and especially opposing linebackers, with their quickness. It messes up the angles opposing backers must take. Ryan McMahon was his usual solid self. He doesn't dominate but he does what we ask him to. Rodney Hudson, until he got injured (and they are expected to hold him out until the UF game with his mild knee sprain), looked good. And maybe most impressive because of his injury was Andrew Datko (separated shoulder). I thought he did a great job and a shoulder injury is not all that easy to play with.

As for the backs. Thomas ran hard and was decisive. He made the right cuts almost all of the time. Ty Jones was not impressive at all. Anyone could have run through those huge holes.

My player of the game might be Rod Owens. He blocked his butt off and also ran some great rotues for Manuel. Twice on 3rd downs, Manuel was very late making his read and Owens slowed down knowing he could get killed but wanting to give his QB an open target. A big +1 for Rod Owens! Bert Reed didn't screw around and got upfield quickly.

I like the idea of flipping the ball to Jarmon in space. It somewhat limits what coverages the opposition can play and he is an athletic freak.

Here's Jimbo's Notes from the press conference that I took down yesterday:

We had some complexity in the offense and we were fortunate to hit our plays when we called them. E.J. was doing the things that he needed to do. He executed the gameplan very well. Stayed in good down and distance, fortunate to have the plays be open (implying Wake's plan was dumb). No delay penalties. Changed protections, routes, etc.

Every play is from a family of plays so when the QB checks down they have to know what they are looking to attack. Jimbo teaches conceptually. What are we trying to attack. If we know it we can change on the fly. Harder to learn at first but better in the long run.

E.J. and Christian both understand the concepts of football and I think this is the reason they pick things up so quickly.

These are good emotions this week. They have great futures ahead of them. We do have some upper classmen who have grown up and they will go off the right way.

Never had this small of a senior class before. FSU loses only Goodman, Piurowski, and Owens, to graduation (on offense).

E.J. has a lot of instincts to play football. Jermain Thomas did a nice job to help E.J. with the pitches by being where he needed to be. Did a great job of maintaining the pitch relationship.

You have to have the dependability of a running back who adds the dimension of a consistent running back.

Tavares Pressley could see some PT this week.

Brandon Davis did a nice job coming in for Rodney

I think the whole group (WR's) played the best game they have from blocking to running routes.

Jarmon Fortson doesn't realize how much time this game really takes. I am not down on him but he can get to another level of greatness if he gets all of the details. I am really looking forward to seeing how he progresses. (Jimbo challenges Fortson every week.

Maryland blitzes like crazy and they are hard to prepare for." "They do it all." "As tough to prepare for in terms of blitzing as anyone we have played. This could be a game where we mix incompletes with big plays because of the blitz. When you blitz the YAC yards, yards after catch are there to be made then our receivers have to make plays. I thin Joe Montana did a very good job of getting his receivers the ball where each of them needed it. E.J. will understand the concepts but he will need to put in a lot of study time this week.

I told E.J. the other day that Christian had a lot of success each week because he prepared for every game the same way. E.J. has had some success now he just needs to play the game. This is bigger than anyone who has ever been involved with it. E.J. is very self motivated and I tell him that the hardest job in football is being the backup QB. He did a great job and he prepared to play and it showed. If you think I am waiting and not going to play is not the way to prepare for a game. E.J. and Christian are very similar in a lot of ways."

We are looking forward to having Chris Thompson back this week." (Thompson's grandfather passed away and they had a close relationship.)

If good enough is ever good enough then we have a problem. "Good enough is never good enough to me."

Fisher then talked about a question regarding the running game not being as good as people expected. Said a lot of that run game went from the QB's legs to the qb's arm. I think people were shocked to see that we could throw as well as we did this year. I want to see how efficient we are on each play. Pass blocking has been much better this year than we were a year ago. "I don’t care how many yards we run or throw for, I care about how efficient are we each play."

Receivers are getting into their routes better, breaking them off better, catching it better. We are making quick decisions. Everything on offense is doing better.

Jimbo smirked when told this offense is the best since 2000, then said he wasn’t aware of that. Said he is much more comfortable as a playcaller.

We are learning to play with more consistency.

We are getting better but I still think we leave a lot out there. Not just yards but more great runs, more great throws, more great catches.

When things aren't just like you coach them up these guys are making the adjustments to keep the play moving and that is a good sign.

Fisher said when he is going through grading the offense, there are consistent pluses rather than a big play then a minus.

On Mickey Andrews: I don’t know if anybody played any better defense during any time during any era of college football than during Mickey’s 20 years. Until you are a great defensive team you’re not a great team. Defense keeps you in games. FSU used to win 41-39 until Mickey got here. Nobody’s legacy is above Mickey Andrews. How would you attack a mickey andrews defense? had to be balanced, had to recruit a lot better "I mean they rattatattattd them now I tell ya. (fsu hitting weurffel)"

Then he talked for a while about how having big hands and long arms helps in play-action.

On Goodman- trying to get him back.

Owens, EJ, and Jermaine players of the game. Owens had some great blocks and showed great patience in his routes. Great feel for that.

On Greg Reid returning punts and not kicks… not sure, said Pat is good too. (It's not his call)

Can’t afford to lose Cas, Christian, Rich, Rodney, but we have to have other guys step up. give someone else the chance to be a hero. guys keep stepping up keep competing keep battling great traits for the future

We are recruiting guys to fit our mold and practicing better than before. Then (2007) they were memorizing plays now they get the concepts to what you teach which allows you to make adjustments. the older guys never got that and it was unfair to ask them to get it.

The Streak Is Over!

Our regular readers know that we had been tracking a rather embarrassing streak. Florida State's defense had allowed every opponent to post their best offensive game of the season in either Points, Total Yards, or the most important measure of performance, Yards-Per-Play. That is no longer the case. FSU held Wake Forest to only their 3rd best offensive performance of the year. Now, don't get too excited. Wake still gained 20% more than they had been averaging in conference games. Also, the streak would have come to an end thanks to UNC finally cracking the 5 yards-per-play barrier against someone (Miami, haha), and Clemson racking up an insane performance against NC State, both of which pushed FSU's defensive efforts down some.

For more on that Clemson game, which should make you feel a bit better about losing to those guys (they are a top 10 team this year, bank it), go here Clemson - NC State film review - Shakin The Southland. Also, want a fun stat? Sure you do. Miami's Jacory Harris leads the country in interceptions. And before Miami fans feed you some tired line about how their offense throws for more yards per pass and are thus more likely to throw an INT, don't believe it. Miami is 4th in conference in yards per pass, behind FSU, a team that doesn't try to go deep on every play.

Let's go comprehensive on the game:

Where did FSU succeed on defense? They used a variety of run blitzes on 1st down. Sometimes they worked and Wake was stopped for 1 or fewer yards. Other times they didn't and FSU was in the wrong gaps and hit for a big gain. Andrews talked about this some in his press conference.

I thought Kevin McNiel played better. Perhaps he is now in shape. Everette Dawkins played a very nice game from what I saw (#93).

FSU is definitely playing more zone defense now and they played it well on Saturday. Mangum is not as bad covering half a field as he is covering a whole field.

Our backers still do not read their keys and I'm not sure they know them. Chuck Amato is a horrible coach. Really puzzled as to why Wake didn't run more misdirection. I like Nigel Carr's energy. Bradham is progressing slower than I'd like but he is coming around.

Upon watching again, we did have some guys running free in the secondary who were not accounted for and that is a problem. Skinner just didn't hit them.

Andrews said it was a team game. Everyone pitched in.

Aays they won 1st down and aoccomplished the goal (didn't state the goal)

3rd and long did not win (we might have forced more, it's a step in the right direction)

How many yards did they make after contact? few longballs but lots of short plays that went long. (We played a lot of cover-2)

4th down not good, (but honestly, those are 4th and short’s, it's not a big deal)

Happy he didn’t have to face skinner again and they didn’t win 4 in a row

When they pull, it creates a new gap, you have to maintain gap integrity and re-adjust your leverage. (Mickey is right here, FSU did not go a good job of this. Said they got 100+ yards doing this).

Mickey said they are only doing the ceremony stuff because they were asked. (He is incredible humble)

When you’re a committed football coach, sometimes you have to do things you don’t wanna do, even when your priorities should be elsewhere, like if your family needs you. (Mickey clearly hinting that he was begged to come back but probably shouldn't be here). Thanks to Mickey for 25+ great years.

Greg reid has come along and been rewarded with more PT.

Mickey really looks better today, seems happy.

Highlight Videos!

What They're Saying... after Florida State's Homecoming Win

FSUncensored — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:06:08 -0000

Let's start with one of the best FSU articles I have ever read. Take your time to read that. It really shows how Bowden tried to destroy the program about which he supposedly cares, just how Mickey Andrews saved it, and just how Fisher has the stuff to take it to the next level.

More inside.

Bowden Truism Alert: "our defense did good enough for us to win." Yet when they lose, it's a team loss, right coach? Seems silly to refuse to apportion fault yet falsely give praise.

Ponder Quotes:

"Week to week it comes down to that fourth quarter. I’m proud of this team. We kept fighting and I have the best teammates in the world. They really carried me this game, I was struggling, hurting a little bit and they did a good job of pulling us out."

"I’m real confident. This has happened several times. I know with our offense we have the ability to score every time and we should. I knew we were gonna punch that in, and everybody knew that. We had the confidence to do it." On the running game: "It was good. That really carried us. Jermaine (Thomas) ran the ball really well and the offensive line opened up these holes. We were able to do a lot of things on the ground."

Ryan McMahon on how the line practices: "The way we practice, we practice so intense and so hard that the game is easier than the practice. We don't get tired in the second half."

Mister Alexander on NC State's ottensive tackle being a fatty who couldn't move well: "You can’t just go out there on the tackle and just make sacks, you have to learn his tendencies first. He (Jeraill McCuller) couldn’t really get down, like he couldn’t bend his knees that much so I just put an inside move and dipped down low on him so he couldn’t touch me."

FSU's Fortson comes up big vs. Wolfpack Tallahassee Democrat
"My first thought was just, 'get the ball back,'" Fortson said. "(Mageo) didn't know what he was doing with the ball, so I just tried to get my hand in there and rip it out." "I had my hand in there for about five or 10 seconds," Fortson said with a smile. "And fortunately it came out when he was falling." "With plays like that I just want to show the coaches and the team that I'm here to play and I really want to win," Fortson said. "It shows you what the guy is capable of," offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher said. "I mean that was a huge play — to battle back and get that thing. That's why I think I get so upset with him at times, because I know what he's capable of." "I've got to get it out of him," Fisher said. "It's in there. And you see it. That's my job. My job isn't for him to fall in love with me. My job is to coach him and make him have a future." "It shows you where his heart is," Fisher said. "If a guy does that, you know where his heart is."

Ponder's Injury

I think Ponder will play against Clemson, because he is a warrior and his ribs aren't cracked or broken. I'm not sure if he has a cartilage tear, but I expect him to play. They are definitely badly bruised. I also expect FSU Sports Information to produce suspicious practice reports, as they've done in the past.

There were a number of guys who said they were inspired by Ponder's injury. Mickey Andrews was very impressed with Ponder staying in the game.

Night Game In Death Valley

The game against Clemson is set for 7:45, on ESPN. FSU hasn't won in Clemson since 2001, and Clemson should win this game. They are currently favored by 8 points. Clemson is arguably the loudest stadium in the country. It is louder than the Swamp or LSU or Oregon, in my opinion. It is definitely louder than Alabama or FSU (2 schools I have attended).

We'll talk a lot of Clemson this week, but just know that they have an erratic, middle of the road offense with two electric play makers including the best running back in the country. C.J. Spiller, and one of the country's elite defenses . But they are missing DaQuan Bowers, one of the country's best defensive ends. That's bad for Clemson, but unfortunately, their 2nd stringers would start for FSU, and they are incredibly deep at end, so they won't miss him that much.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Browse more photos »

Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

The Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

FSUncensored — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:50:44 -0000

Gametime is 3:30, on ABC or ESPN. How do you know which network to watch? I have you covered:

The TomahawkNation forecast indicates an 80% chance of a lot of rain, with temps in the upper 60's to the lower 70's. Wet.

Be here for the Tomahawk Nation livegamethread!

The preview awaits you. It is here to consume the rest of your day.

This summer, I wrote a preview of BC's defense. Unless you've been reading us for a while, you probably don't understand just how good BC's defense was last season. So read it.

Here's the part I want to highlight, my prediction.

BC plays a read and react defense under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani (now the head coach), which means they rarely blitz. Spaziani is highly thought of as a defensive coordinator and is very detail oriented. He has always done a nice job of adapting his scheme to his personnel. And this year he has quite the task on his hands with the loss of his 3 best players (by far). BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season. Let's see what they bring back...

Defensive Line & Linebackers (The "Front 7")

Gone are the big boys we discussed above. BC doesn't have the ability to replace them. The best of this group is tackle Damik Scafe (6-3, 293, Jr.). He played a bit last year and will probably play in the NFL eventually, though he's an obvious dropoff from last year. The other tackle is tackle Kaleb Ramsey (6-3, 256, Soph.) Young and obviously not very strong, he's a major liability and most teams will be able to run on him.

While BC has major questions at tackle, they are considerable better off at defensive end. Austin Giles (6-3, 283, Sr.) will battle Alex Albright 6'2" 250 could also get the nod. At the other end, Jim Ramella (6-4, 243, Sr.) is a very solid player. These guys are good, but not great, and won't come close to having the impact that the two interior guys had last year. In fact, they could regress as teams focus on them and not the interior guys.

At linebacker, the Eagles are a mess. They lost Herzlich and he obviously isn't replacable. They also lost Robert Francois (6'2" 255), and Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin (6'0" 252) will try to return from tearing his Achilles back in March, but even if he does come back, he'll be quite rusty. Trying to replace Herzlich is sophomore Dominick LeGrande 6'2" 200 (yes, 200). He's not ready, but has to play anyways because of Herzlich's absence. LeGrande played safety last year. Sophomore Will Thompson (6'1" 235) will replace McLaughlin if he can't go. He has impressed people but is not as good as the guy he will be asked to replace. At the other position will be one of two redshirt freshmen in 6'3" 217lb Nick Clancy or 6'3" 222lb Alexander Disanzo.

These guys are much smaller, much less experienced, much less talented, and much younger. There's a huge dropoff for BC's defensive line and linebackers.

So BC's front-7 did weigh 1902lbs. This year, they will weigh in at 1711bs. That's a huge dropoff of 191lbs! No team in the country that I could find had this significant a dropoff, and nobody else was even close. That's to say nothing of the talent they lost (regardless of size), which they can't replace this season.

So 1711lbs combined in their front 7. Why does this matter? FSU's run game destroys small front 7's.

So, I was close, but I need to make a few changes. Giles is starting at DT, not Ramsey. McLaughlin is back and starting, though I was not impressed with him against Wake. He pressed too much. FSU also needs to make sure to exploit him in coverage, because he is not agile to put it mildly. LeGrande is their best linebacker, but he missed the Wake game with a concussion and is expected to return.

In any case, 1743lbs is their new weight, which is still 159lbs lighter than they were last year. Frequent readers will remember that I thought FSU could run on BYU because of their diminutive front-7 (under 1750lbs), and run the Noles did. USF's front-7 was decently sized at 1818lbs , but very very talented, and paired with a poor performance from FSU's line, the run game wasn't there. I won't say that BC's front-7 is as bad as BYU's, but they are nowhere close to USF's, or Miami's for that matter.

But so far this year, they have done a nice job stopping the run. Most of that work was done with the extra safety, however, and that comes with some consequences. BC's defense is really well coached. Spaziani is a great defensive coach. BC's guys know they have to take chances, but that comes at a cost. BC plays a lot of zone defense, with 8 in the box, and that leaves them exposed to big plays when their guys jump routes. As I discuss a bit below, Wake did exploit them some. Clemson, however, could not because their wide receivers are wildly undisciplined, dropped balls, and most importantly, because their offensive line is pretty bad and BC didn't really need 8 in the box to stop them. Wake's run game has been terrible for almost half a decade, and they still loaded the box and allowed 1st down passing.

Here's some notes from the Wake game:

Dr. Saturday Wrote:

B.C. controlled the vast majority of this game, moving ahead 24-10 early in the fourth quarter.

The Deacons could have been there, though, if not for a few of the usual blown opportunities, specifically a fumble in Eagle territory and a missed field goal in the first half. With its back against the wall, Wake drove for two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to tie, using a grand total of three minutes to go 67 and 80 yards, respectively, to put the game into overtime on a Riley Skinner throw into the end zone with 11 seconds left; from there, following a B.C. field goal on its turn with the ball, the Deacons proceeded to move to the Eagle three-yard line with a chance to score for the win. Cue crushing fumble on first-and-goal, an Eagle recovery and a hard ending to one of the best comeback efforts of the day.

The desperately-needed B.C. win takes a lot of sting out of the Eagles' late defensive collapse, which couldn't get a stop at the end of regulation (and nearly failed in overtime, too) and gave up five passes longer than 20 yards, most in the second half.

But how much of those last two drives were because of BC's Prevent Defense as BC fans contend? What about the turnovers? Was Wake's run game all one play?

Deacons Make Good 1st Down Choices

Wake had less than ideal success with 1st down running, having success only only 4 of 14 1st down runs (defined as 50% of necessary yardage). 4 of them went for a "stuff" (less than 10% of necessary remaining yardage). The other 5 were somewhere between 11 and 49% of necessary yardage.

But part of that had to do with BC's decision to take away the run by using an extra defender down in the box (typically a very aggressive safety). So Wake countered by throwing on 1st down (this is similar to what Miami did to the Noles). Wake threw on 17 1st downs. Only three of those passes were incomplete. Of the 14 that were complete, 11 were successful, and of those 11, 8 went for 1st downs. That's 9.4 yards per pass, 11.4 per completion. But on the issue of the prevent defense, there is some merit to that. 6 of the 11 successful 1st down pass plays were on the last two drives, and BC was definitely playing off coverage. They also didn't play it that well, as some of the completions were rather short.

It is worth noting that two of the turnovers for Wake wasn't really turnovers at all. One was simply a fumble on 4th and 25. Another was an interception on 4th and 6 from midfield, intercepted at the goal line. Both plays were better or similar to the what would have happened if the pass just fell incomplete or the runner was simply tackled.

Situation	Plays	Yards	Yards/Play	Points/ Play
1st 10 Drives	45	328	7.3	0.222
Last 2 Drives ("Prevent")	16	147	9.2	0.875
Overtime	5	17	3.4	0 (Obvious)

Okay, so there was something to the prevent argument.

Long Distance Down Struggles Signal Lack of Pass Rush

Wake faced 21 2nd or 3rd down and long situations. They passed on 13 of those. These are known as high leverage situations for the defense. They were successful on 5 of those. 5 of 13 is very good for an offense in long downs, particularly when you consider what some of those plays were. On 3rd and long, Wake hit passes of 58, 26, and 38 yards. They got no pass rush, and some of the linebackers and safeties really looked awkward in coverage. When BC blitzed, they did not get to Skinner (no sacks and very little pressure).

Name	Rush	Yards	Avg
QB Rushing	7	3	0.4
WR Rushing	6	-7	-1.2
RB Running (w/o 76 yard run)	17	70	4.1
RB 76 Yard Rush	1	76	76

The point of this chart, is to show that Wake Forest ran almost 10% of their plays as runs to the wideouts, with poor results. The run game, for most of the day, wasn't special, and definitely inflated by the one long run (which of course, does count, so we can't dismiss it. When a defense loads the box, it increases the chance they stop the run, but also increases the chance of allowing a big run, because of the angles.

So back to their secondary. Here's what I wrote before.

Secondary

Remember all those interceptions? Kiss them goodbye. BC's secondary was allowed to play pass first, second, and last. Now? They'll have to use one of the secondary members (a safety) in run support. The burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that put opposing offenses in tough situations? I think it's the latter. None of the BC secondary guys are likely all-conference candidates or NFL players (none are projected to go in the 2010 or 2011 draft). Let's have a look:

At Safety, BC should be okay with Free Safety Wes Davis and Strong Safety Marcellus Bowman. Davis is a 6'2" 215 Junior who produced 60 tackles, 3 tfl, 2 INT, 6 pass breakups last year. He's a decent player in coverage and in run suppot, but as with most of these guys, I expect him to get exposed because he now has to play run and pass (can't play 25 yards off the ball). Davis will be hung out to dry all by himself because Bowman, a 6'2" 217lb Senior will be called upon to help stop the run. Again, the loss of the great front-7 guys (both expected and unexpected) is going to put tremendous pressure on this secondary.

At corner, BC has similar problems. They return the experienced Roderick Rollins, a 6-0, 188-pound senior. Rollins has had the benefit of a lot of help from his safeties in his career and that help won't be there this year. He's decently physical, but can he turn and run after the initial bump coverage? We shall see. At the other corner spot is rising sophomore Donnie Fletcher (6'1" 188lbs). Fletcher is another big corner. They also have the experienced Deleon Gause 5'11" 174lb, a Junior who has good physical skills, but is inconsistent.

BC's secondary plays extremely physical, which is great when they have the help of safeties who aren't pre-occupied with stopping the run. But without safety help, if the corners can't run and run, they will be burned for long TD's. Wes Davis will have to prove that he can cover the deep middle instead of a deep half (now that Bowman will play down in the box).t

I am pretty impressed with Rollins, he's a quality corner. **Update** Rollins is apparently doubtful with some sort of leg injury. Fletcher, however, has been burnt on some double moves. Despite their decent showing so far, I stand by my summer evaluation. This secondary was a product of a really good front-7, which is just no longer there. It's very important for FSU to stay in manageable down and distance. If they can, it will be like the BYU game, putting BC in tough situations and forcing their hand. If the Noles cannot, it will be much tougher for them. Spaziani is the master of the 3-5-3 defense (not 3-3-5, but 3-5-3). Here's an excerpt, but check out Dr. B's great article on the subject (lots of video as well). That should kill an hour of work for you, at least.

The basic package appears as a variation on the 33 Stackset with an extra OLB/Nickelback playing, with the SS being the 5th guy in the underneath zone. BC's base is still a 4-3. WILL and SS take the flats underneath, with the two interior LBs playing hook/curl zone and the SAM taking a slot/TE (curl) zone up the seam (note that it could also appear as a shifted 4-3, with the Sam playing in a 3pt stance). The two CBs and the FS are playing the usual 3-deep zone coverage. In the figure above, W, S, and B are LB's (Will/Sam/Bandit), and the SS's are called "Dogs" on the callside, "Rover" on the weakside. One of them will most likely be a OLB or backup Safety/Nickel. Its just terminology.

Read the explanation (Long)

As that article indicates, hitting the 4-verticals play will be key. Wake did it to them. We saw FSU use this against Jax State (Caz Piurowski), and once against BYU.

BC's defense was the ACC's best and easily top 5 nationally. They beat FSU up last year. FSU had the youngest offensive line in the country and were destroyed by an ultra-talented and experienced set of defensive linemen and linebackers. I have full confidence that Frank Spaziani will come up with good game plan after good game plan, but his ability to get creative will be severely hampered because his defense will face far fewer obvious passing situations. He's also never been a blitz guy, and he'll definitely need to blitz FSU to get pressure, because FSU's offensive line can handle BC's 3 or 4 man rush. When BC blitzes, can their secondary handle the single coverage responsibilities against FSU's wideouts? Though they will run a lot of cover-3, I do expect to see some man at times, particularly when blitzing. I expect FSU to run the ball on BC, even without a 100% Christian Ponder, force BC to make adjustments that they really don't want to do, and then FSU will exploit them down the field. This game could look very different from a big plays standpoint. BYU was content to sit back, but BC will not. If FSU starts to run on them, or picks them apart underneath, Spaziani will blitz. Their blitz wasn't good against Wake Forest, but I suspect it will be better Saturday, if needed.

For Florida State, a lot of this game comes down to not beating themselves. They have to get DT Scafe blocked. Other than that, I would not be worried about BC's defensive players more so than I would about FSU beating themselves. FSU needs to throw when BC has predictable run personnel in the game, be it via play-action or a regular dropback. McGlaughlin is 30lbs bigger than any other linebacker BC has, and FSU needs to make BC pay for having him on the field, specifically because he isn't particularly mobile at this point. And if they remove him, run the ball. Jermaine Thomas is back this week as the starting running back, which should be good. I could See Easterling having a big day from the slot.

Of course, the major X-Factor is the rain, and there will be lots and lots of cold rain. I am not sure what that means for a team like FSU, and this game is played on turf. So far this year I predicted a very high scoring Miami game, a high scoring Win at BYU, and had a very uneasy feeling about the USF game, predicting FSU to win by less than a touchdown when everyone else saw a blowout. I don't have the same grasp on this game. I'll say FSU runs for 180 yards on 36 carries, and throws for 240 yards on 30 pass plays (28 throws, 2 sacks). It'll be good for 28 points in some nasty conditions.

I watched the Clemson and Wake Forest games in their entirety. I don't feel much can be learned from the Clemson game in terms of defending BC. Clemson has one of the top 3 defenses in the country. I can think of at least 35 teams I would trade defenses with. Clemson was able to do things to the Eagle's offense that FSU simply cannot do, because literally, Clemson has a definitively better player at 9 of the 11 defensive positions. Also, Clemson is much better coached. But we can still break down BC's Offense, which again, will probably look like what we saw against Wake and not Clemson.

In the off-season, I wrote this on BC's Offense. There have been some changes, so I'll quickly run through them.

The Eagles lost up and coming star coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was fired after flirting with the NFL. That's a smart move for Boston College, because Jags is a very hot commodity and would have left soon anyways. He got a lot out of his players and his team outperformed the expectations of everyone. The Eagles also lost highly respected Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach, Steve Logan. Both are not with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Replacing Jagodzinski is longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. More on him later. Replacing Logan is Gary Tranquil, who was born in 1940. At one time, he was a decent offensive coach, but he's been out of the college game for 4 years. Where Logan was excellent and really took advantage of his player's talents and opposing defenses, Tranquil is not highly thought of. He runs a pro-style offense, does not spread teams out, and does not utilize his quarterback in the run game at all. His schemes are simple and from a purely schematic standpoint, Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews should own him. They are also abandoning their zone blocking scheme. Tranquil's offense is literally what Mickey Andrew's defense is designed to stop.

Unfortunately, there have been some changes here. I still don't think Tranquil is any good, but after their anemic showing against Clemson, they scrapped a lot of the new stuff and went back to the zone scheme that was successful for them last season. BC is running a lot of two-tight end sets, which scares me. I will say I was right in that they are trying to be more of a power run team. In an ideal world, they man-block a power run game. The next best thing for FSU would be power running w/ no QB threat from a zone scheme. The worst possible scenario would be spread run with a mobile QB. So it's not all bad, but it's definitely not ideal.

Boston College has a great offensive line. We talk a lot about how good FSU's O-Line can be, but I am here to tell you that BC's line is every bit as good. This is one of the best offensive lines in the country. They return all 5 starters. This is an excellent group. People make a big deal about his "big" these guys are, but they really aren't huge.

LT Anthony Castonzo (6-7, 287, Jr.)
RT Rich Lapham (6-8, 322, Jr.)
LG Thomas Claiborne (6-3, 323, Jr.)
RG Emmett Cleary (6-7, 270, R-Fr.)
C Matt Tennant (6-4, 294, Sr.)

Castonzo is a likely NFL 1st day pick (2nd rounder, maybe 1st, probably 2011 draft). He is an excellent pass blocker and is pretty quick. FSU's defensive end will have a tough time doing much against him. Lapham is obviously huge at right tackle. He is a very good run blocker but has bad feet and is a liability in pass protection. Not an NFL player. At Left Guard, Claiborne is an ex-defensive tackle who was excellent last year. He was 3rd team ALL-ACC and should be even better this year. Claiborne is an NFL player provided he keeps his weight in check. At Left Guard, Cleary is the newcomer to the group. He could be good eventually and was a tackle coming out of high school, but he's quite raw and will need to work on his back and knee bend to be any good. At Center, Tennant should be first team ACC. He's better than FSU's Ryan McMahon, though obviously less known. Don't get mad, FSU fans, I'm just giving it to you straight. BC has at least three NFL linemen who are probably 1st day (top 4 round) selections on their line. They return 4 starters and the line has 4 upperclassmen. This is an excellent offensive line and will make BC's skill position players look much better than they are. This isn't the most heralded unit in the country, but unless you judge offensive lines on things other than performance, talent, or experience, they should be considered one of the better groups. FSU will have one heckuva time against this unit.

Not much change here. Important to note that they were terrible against an all-time great Clemson defensive line, which was partially due to the Tiger's dominance, and partially due to the confusion. How disciplined to the scheme will BC stay? Will Tranquil try to throw some of his new stuff in there and risk confusing his own group? BC has a huge advantage here. They should be conservative and pound the rock until FSU clearly says "we're devoting extra people against the run, throw on us." FSU's DLine is now as bad as I thought they would be- they are worse.

At Quarterback, BC has Dave Shinskie, who is a 25 year-old Pocket passer and he also played minor league baseball. He hasn't played football in 6 years. More on him here. He's a good passer, because he was a decent prospect coming out of high school. He's not a run threat, however, and that's really what the 'Noles care about. They also have a kid named Tuggle, son of former NFL All-Pro Jessie Tuggle. He's an athletic freak but a really erratic passer.

If I were BC, I'd use Tuggle in the shotgun all day and run zone read down FSU's throat 55 times for about 350 yards. I think we'll see some Wildcat with him, but not as the base package, and that's a good thing.

The Eagles look good at running back. Montel Harris is their big back at 5' 10" 200. He had one heckuva game last year against the 'Noles as a freshman. He's not a home run threat, and this author thinks he's more of a product of BC's offensive line, but he does what is asked of him and grinds out tough yards. Last year he gained 900 yards on 179 carries (5 YPC), and caught 20 balls for 160 yards. The other back is Josh Haden, a scatback who gained 479 yards on 120 carries (4 YPC). He's 5'8" 182lbs, but should catch a few more balls this year. Blocking for these two is Senior James McClusky. He's 6'2" 250lbs and a mauler. He did hurt his Achilles in spring, however, and the Eagles desperately need him to be healthy this year as they utilize a 2-back attack. I fully expect Harris to get 200 carries this year, and also expect his average to drop a bit as other teams key on him more.

McCluskey is doubtful with an Achilles injury. So BC is running more two tight end sets, as I mentioned. Haden is still inconsistent, but he is very skilled and could break a long run. So about those wideouts and tight ends...

The Eagles do return WR Rich Gunnell, who was basically Robinson's equal in production, though far less explosive. Florida State's Patrick Robinson can easily handle him one on one without help (Robinson is CBS' #1 Draft Eligible Corner), and he'll be asked to as the 'Noles focus on stopping the run. They also have Justin Jarvis, who is 6'5" and was decently productive this year. Can Jarvis handle the increased role? That remains to be seen, but the Eagles are counting on him. The remaining guys are relatively unheralded wild cards. Junior Ifeanyi Momah is 6'6" 230 and caught 11 for 149 and 3TD's last season. He's their Greg Carr, except bulkier and about as fast as your average tight end. RsFr Clyde Lee had a decent spring I am told and could play some in the slot (though I suspect BC will not use many 3-wide sets). Finally, can Senior Clarence Megwa (6'1" 190) come back from a thought to be career-ending leg injury? If he can, BC will need him, because he started for them last year. Update: Megwa's leg is apparently healed, he's dealing with a hand injury and they expect him to be ready for the FSU game.

At tight end, 6'3" 250lb Soph Lars Anderson has a chance to be a very good pass catcher. Last year he snagged 9 balls for 85 yards. They also have Jordan McMichael, who was a very nice recruit in 2006 (I think), but has done nothing to date to impress anyone.

I don't think any of the draft eligible guys will get drafted. They really don't seem all that special. They aren't bad, but rather are just good college players.

Some notes. First, Gunnell has struggled, which almost certainly means he will have a big day against FSU, but Robinson should lock him down easily. Momah is definitely out. BC is using a tight end by the name of Chris Pantale, and he's been good for them. The McMichael kid is very good. Again, two tight end sets.

For FSU, most of the defensive line will play, but that is not to say they are healthy. Freshman JaJuan Harley, back from injury problems, will start at Rover over much maligned Senior Korey Mangum. Think of it as a mercy killing. Harley is the best athlete on the team and maybe in the ACC, but expect maddening inconsistency, busts, and also some highlight plays from the true freshman making his first ever start.

I expect BC to stay in two-tight end sets, with 1 back and two wideouts. They should be able to run the ball on the Noles, particularly with counters and traps, in addition to their zone run game, which is already good. I'm not re-inventing the wheel here. This is the same stuff you've seen since Chuck Amato replaced Kevin Steele as FSU's linebacker coach. Oh, they have a little speed-option they run as well. BC runs a ton of play-action passes, and I expect them to do well with those to their two impressive tight ends because FSU's players just aren't taught well on the defensive side. The defensive acuity just hasn't been instilled in these guys. It's not their fault. I'll take BC to have 200 yards rushing and 180 throwing, and 24 points.

Noles 28, BC 24.

Note: the heavy, heavy rain here is keeping my score prediction down. If it were higher, I'd predict a higher number.

Florida State's Offensive Line Powers Upset of #7 BYU Cougars

FSUncensored — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 05:09:18 -0000

Florida State's Offensive Line Coach Rick Trickett is considered one of the finest coaches in the country at any position.

View full size photo »

Going into their game against the 7th ranked BYU cougars, Florida State had many doubters. Most national pundits predicted that FSU would lose by a minimum of two touchdowns. Outside of the Nole's questionable defense, they also faced doubts about their offensive line. Thought of as the best in the ACC and one of the best in the country headed into the season, the Noles OLine didn't dominate Miami in the run game, though they did pass protect very well, allowing only 2 sacks on 43 pass plays. Against Jacksonville State, they struggled, like the rest of the Nole team did off of only two days of practice and the Miami loss still lingering. Writers wondered where the Seminole's vaunted run game had gone? Coming into BYU, few thought the Noles would remedy their run game problems, particularly because the Cougar defense had been so dominant, or so they seemed.

Last week I broke down the BYU-Oklahoma film and thought that it wasn't that BYU's defense was so amazing, but that Oklahoma beat themselves with repeated dumb penalties and a silly gameplan. Check the link, I called it. People often underestimate the importance of offensive line play and thus fail to account for it when evaluating a team. But offensive line play can make an average running back look like a world-beater, or make a talented quarterback look below average. OU's offensive line was the country's finest last year, but this year, replacing 4 starters, and having to move a tight end to center after an injury, they cost Oklahoma the game against BYU with 10 offensive penalties including 5+ false starts. I profiled it in that article, but if FSU was to beat BYU, they would have to avoid 3rd and long situations and silly offensive penalties, because BYU plays great team defense but they struggle when having to defend both the run and the pass because of their lack of athleticism.

But FSU Offensive Coordinator/ Head Coach in Waiting Jimbo Fisher said that he was was not worried about the run game or the offensive line. Florida State's legendary Offensive Line Coach Rick Trickett guaranteed that his unit would get things worked out. He unilaterally denied all interview requests for his linemen, stating that they were going to "stop talking and start blocking."

Florida State's offensive line could not have performed better. Their play was the antithesis of Oklahoma's offensive line. Not only did the Nole's offensive front not lose the game for Florida State, they absolutely won it. While OU committed 10 offensive penalties, the Noles had only 1 enforced against their starters (FSU pulled their first team offense once the score got to 54-21. At the time they were pulled, FSU starters were gaining 7.2 yards per snap of the football). BYU was shellshocked. "We didn't think they would be so physical," said BYU Coach Bronco Mendenhall. It started from the opening play. FSU would not punt until the end of the 3rd quarter, with the game already well in hand. The Noles marched for touchdown drives of 60, 70, 80, 82, and 86 yards the first three quarters. FSU dominated BYU. Everyone wants to assume that FSU's speed made the difference, but the Nole's offensive line was much, much stronger than BYU's defensive front. BYU's linebackers could not get off the blocks of FSU's offensive line. Florida State's likely All-America guard Rodney Hudson took home ACC offensive lineman of the week honors.

After the jump, see just how dominant they were.

The Noles run game was excellent. The offensive line did not allow a tackle for loss (though one did come on a reverse where an FSU wideout made an ill-advised juke by the sideline.) It started on 1st down. The Noles had 21 1st down runs. The results were as follows: 12, 12, 9, 9 (touchdown), 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 (touchdown). Florida State did not have any runs stopped for no gain or loss. Zero. They also dominated short yardage. On 2nd and 3 or less, FSU ran every time and picked up the first down, every time: Down-Distance (Gained) 2-2 (6), 2-1 (4), 2-2 (4), 2-1 (4). Third down was the same story, 3-1 (6), 3-1 (4), 3-1 (2). The announcers were stunned, calling the offensive line "velcro" because BYU's defensive linemen and linebackers could not shed the blocks. Want another crazy nugget? BYU's leading tacklers were their cornerbacks, who had 10 and 11 respectively. BYU's cornerbacks had more tackles than the defensive line and linebackers combined, mostly because Florida State's line denied them any penetration and consistently put them on their backs.

"We showed great efficiency on a down to down basis. Constantly stayed ahead of the sticks. Were always in manageable downs, we executed with great consistency, we were very physical up front, were very multiple, distributed the ball a bunch (8 different Seminoles carried the ball), we won 1st down consistently," said Florida State Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting Jimbo Fisher, who coached the Noles to the ACC's top offense last season and won the ACC Offensive Coordinator of the Year award. Florida State held the ball for 40 minutes, compared to just 20 for BYU.

It wasn't just the run game. Christian Ponder was an incredible 21-26 passing for 195 yards, 2 TD's and no interceptions. His quarterback rating was a preposterous 170. But the credit also needs to go to the offensive line. Ponder was not sacked. He was hurried only twice, and was hit only three times. Florida State had an incredible 30 1st downs. They started out a perfect 10-for-10 on third downs, and the starters were 11-of-13 overall. Ponder had time to go through all of his reads. When BYU blitzed, FSU picked it up and FSU isolated the single coverage. When BYU played a conservative zone, Ponder sat back and read all five players in the pattern.

Perhaps the best way to judge their performance is to ask BYU's coach, Bronco Mendenhall:

"I thought they played hard, I thought they played physical and I thought they sustained it from beginning to end. I was very impressed with their preparation. A frustrating loss for our football program. Our inability to make critical stops on third down, due to the way Florida State was playing. They won the physical matchup in terms of being able to run the football, and run it effectively from the beginning of the night through the end of the night. I thought those factors were the biggest difference in the game -- prohibiting our offfense from having enough snaps and being on the field frequently enough to give us the balance we were hopeful for. Florida State played more physical tonight. I think they played with more hunger, meaning more desire. Many plays were stopped at the point of attack, but I think hey continued to play longer and harder than we played.

I was impressed through the week with their line's athleticism. I was impressed today that they were more physical than I anticipated. They were very athletic in the first two football games in terms of getting downfield on their screen passes, and cutting. Their size is more like defensive linemen, as you watch them. So they are very athletic. I didn't think they would be able to move us off the line of scrimmage. And not only did they do that, they did it consistently, beginning to end. And that was the biggest surprise to me of the game. And I have to give them credit."

[On the difference between FSU and BYU's front, and why Bronco expected to have success against FSU]: "Because I believe Oklahoma's offensive line was a very good front, and I think that we were capable of more. Yet, they, from beginning to end, ran the football and it wasn't a lot of elaborate schemes. It was basically zone blocking which was their men against our men."

[On Halftime Adjustments]: "Really, when it comes down to the adjustments made -- and this will sound maybe less than what you hoped to hear, it really comes down to gap integrity, and each player doing exactly what they are supposed to do. And when you run zone schemes, someone is losing at the point of attack, or someone is getting cut off, and losing their gap. And that is where seams develop."

"Basically, man for man, Florida State's run offense was better than our run defense this evening. And when you start taking chances and bringing pressure -- and we brought more today than probably in any of the previous two games, maybe all of last year, in trying to help them make plays, but even then Florida State handled that well. Everything we had planned and prepared, we used. And none of which was very effective. Our zone pressures weren't working in terms of getting to the quarterback. We had some man pressures that also weren't effective. And base zone and even dropping eight [wasn't effective]. So execution ultimately was their execution was better than ours."

While All-America Candidate Left Guard Rodney Hudson took home ACC Offensive Lineman of the week honors, other starters played at an extremely high level as well. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is following up his Freshman All-America campaign with a great outing, dominating the Mountain West Conferences's All-Time Sack Leader Jan Jorgensen. Center Ryan McMahon improved his performance immensely from the Miami game and importantly, kept the line abreast of the various blitzes BYU was running from their uncommon 3-4 alignment. Right Guard David Spurlock and Right Tackle Zebrie Sanders both played extremely physical and did a great job maintaining their blocks, allowing the runner to find the hole.

It seems obvious now that the running game wasn't dominant against Miami because Miami schemed to take away the run and allow the pass, if Ponder could throw it, because FSU couldn't throw well last season, and because Miami has an excellent defensive tackle tandem which played well against Rodney Hudson while Hudson had an injured foot. But Ponder showed FSU can and will throw the ball, and now that teams have to respect both the run and the pass, they are in a bind. Florida State is averaging more than 450 yards against ranked teams. No school is averaging more (minimum 2 games). Starting last season when they were the youngest offensive line in the country with three true freshmen and two sophomores as part of FSU's Undercover Youth Movement, this unit has steadily improved. If a team is going to stop FSU's run game, they better have an elite level front-7, of which are only found at Clemson, UNC, and UF, on FSU's schedule, or they are just going to have to gamble and risk being shredded by the pass. With no Seniors and everyone expected to return in 2010, this offensive line has a serious chance to be the clear cut top unit in the country next season. The offense could follow a similar path. While It's not yet the best in the country, it should be the ACC's best again this season and has a real chance to be the best in the country in 2010.

Florida State Seminoles Look to Avoid Beating Themselves Against BYU

FSUncensored — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 07:32:36 -0000

This weekend, FSU travels to face #7 BYU. The Cougars are red-hot, fresh off a 14-13 upset victory over the then #3 Oklahoma Sooners, a game in which BYU was a three touchdown underdog. They also recently worked Tulane 54-3 in the Superdome. You'll remember that last season, Oklahoma had arguably the best offense in college football. And BYU had a terrible defense (caution, that's like 4000 words, print it out.). It was much worse than the worst Division-1 defense FSU faced last season. So how did BYU hold the mighty Sooners to a mere 13 points? Most would say that they knocked out Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. That definitely helped, but as I fired up the ol' DVR, I started to notice some other things. Mainly, I think OU's offense did much more to beat itself than BYU did to stop it. the primary cause of this was Oklahoma's inexperienced offensive line (only 23 returning starts, 19 of them by the left tackle), which had to replace four starters and had to replace one of the replacements due to injury. Last year's OU line was the best in the country, but this year, well, let's break it down drive by drive.

BYU at Oklahoma Drive # 1 (via pbysh)

1-10 OU25 PENALTY OU false start (Simmons, Brian) 5 yards to the OU20. Right off the bat, OU puts themselves in the hole. Our friend Bill Connelley has done tremendous work on the subject of leverage(forcing your opponent into passing situations, and avoiding the same while on offense). This was the first play of the game, but it was great foreshadowing. OU's Offense failed to play with positive leverage.
1-15 OU20 Brown, Chris rush for 3 yards to the OU23 (DENNEY, Brett). Already, OU is in a disadvantageous down and distance. The other thing to note here is the play of the defender over the slot cornerback at 0:38. If BYYU tries that against FSU, the 'Noles will throw the bubble screen every time for 8+ yards and maybe more. It's the Constraint Theory of Offense.
2-12 O2U3 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Tennell, Adron for 7 yards to the OU30 (LOGAN, Brian). Without that false start penalty, OU is in 2nd and 7. Instead, this half-roll is completed not for a first down but to setup 3rd and 5. OU is just barely back on schedule. Side-note: FSU ran these roll-outs a lot last year when the OLine couldn't pass protect. While the line is much improved this year, we might see some roll-outs Saturday.
3-5 OU30 PENALTY OU false start (Brandon, Cory) 5 yards to the OU25. So OU has the look they want, and has a good shot to pick up a 3rd and 5, but they again shoot themselves in the foot.
3-10 OU25 PENALTY OU false start (Brandon, Cory) 5 yards to the OU20. Seriously, 3 false start penalties in OU's first 5 snaps. So OU goes from 3rd and 5 to 3rd and 15. Side note: FSU's tackles are a lot more agile than OU's and shouldn't be really worried about the edge rushers like the over-anxious Cory Brandon seemed to be.
3-15 OU20 Bradford, Sam pass incomplete to Tennell, Adron. BYU plays very good zone defense, and you can't get into 3rd and forever situations against the Cougars. They are very vulnerable when you get them concerned with the run and then hit them with play-action. Their lack of speed is immaterial in situations like 3rd and 15. Because the ball has to travel so far, and they are so good at working as a singular unit, even elite offenses won't burn them in 3rd and 15+ situations. Every defense plays better on 3rd and long, but i think the difference in play between BYU's regular distance down defense, and long-passing-down defenses are enormous.

The highest scoring offense in the country from a year ago couldn't gain a first down in their opening series. Not because BYU beat them off the ball. Not because BYU blanketed their wideouts (though there was good coverage on 3rd and 15, as is expected). No, the reason is that OU beat themselves and couldn't establish a rhythm. For an offense so predicated on running lots of plays at a frantic, no-huddle pace, OU's rhythm killing penalties were suicide.

But OU continued to setup the BYU defense nicely with other self-inflicted gaffes. Inside, we explore more and see that BYU didn't really stop OU, the Sooner's beat themselves.

BYU's 2nd Drive

BYU at Oklahoma Drive #2 (via pbysh)

1-10 OU29 Murray, DeMarco rush for 9 yards to the OU38 (JOHNSON, Scott), PENALTY OU personal foul (Jones, Jarvis) 15 yards to the OU23. This would be a theme for the night. Look at the size of that hole! OU's line just blew BYU off the ball and looked determined to just ram the ball down BYU's throat. First down, get 9 yards. But OU's idiot Left Guard doesn't realize that he can't get away with a late hit in the middle of the field since he is the biggest player on the field. So instead of 2nd and 1, it will be 2nd and 16. Also, remember that OU thrives on being very up-tempo, and penalties stop the clock and make everyone sit around and wait. OU again had a nice thing going, then stupidly ruined their own gig and put themselves behind the 8-ball. Also, the play they ran here is a zone run play not dissimilar to what FSU runs, and FSU should be able to run on BYU- hopefully w/o the personal fouls.
2-16 OU23 Murray, DeMarco rush for 1 yard to the OU24 (DENNEY, Brett). BYU stops this, though there might have been a crease. Again though, no tempo for OU. They are behind schedule on the down and distance markers, and are rushing to try and compensate.
3-15 OU24 Bradford, Sam pass incomplete to Tennell, Adron. Remember, BYU's defense is really good on 3rd and long, but they probably aren't great on regular yardage downs because they struggle to defend the whole field. Much better when they only have to worry about stuff 15+ yards downfield.

So far, we've seen 4 OU penalties derail two OU drives and force OU to go 0-2 on 3rd and 15+. But OU gets a break and BYU fumbles the ensuing punt, setting up OU nicely.

Oklahoma Drive #3

BYU at Oklahoma Drive 3 (via pbysh)

1-10 BYU35 Brown, Chris rush for 5 yards to the BY30 (BAUMAN, Matt). Oklahoma runs and finds success. This was a theme early in the game. BYU looks to have trouble stopping the run. Later in the game OU got away from the run, which was dumb.
2-5 BYU30 Brown, Chris rush for 10 yards to the BY20, 1ST DOWN OU (BAUMAN, Matt). BYU runs inside zone to the right, the same play FSU runs, and gets 10 yards as OU is blowing BYU off the ball. 1st down.
1-10 BYU20 Calhoun, Jermie rush for 3 yards to the BY17. BYU's safety fills really quickly here, which could hurt them later in the play-action game.
2-7 BYU17 PENALTY OU holding (Clapp, Matt) 10 yards to the BY27. OU runs outside zone to the left, but their linemen are sloppy and get called for holding. Penalty # 5 on OU! They really didn't need to hold there, they were blowing BYU off the ball. OU is now behind schedule again.
2-17 BYU27 Broyles, Ryan rush for 5 yards to the BY22 (RICH, Andrew). Wildcat. remember this, BYU has been seriously burned by this stuff in recent years, most notably last season by TCU. FSU hasn't shown that yet, but they could. In any case, OU does a better job to try and get back some of their holding yards.
3-12 BYU22 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Caleb, Brandon for 14 yards to the BY8, N, Scott). 1ST DOWN OU (JOHNSON, Scott). BYU runs a zone blitz, OU picks it up, throws underneath, and the wideout makes a good move. Still, this isn't a 1st down if the DB doesn't slip down. BYU once again played really well in a 3rd and long situation, which BYU didn't really create, but rather OU backed itself into.
1-G BYU08 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Broyles, Ryan for 8 yards to the BY0, TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:56. Play-action, BYU doesn't handle that very well. Also, when the QB gets on the edge, their zone seems to have problems at times (Utah last season).

So far, we've seen OU stop themselves twice, and score once. But have we really seen BYU stopping OU? They aren't racking up tackles for loss, batting passes down, or registering sacks. You be the judge.

Oklahoma Drive # 4

OU just intercepted Max Hall and starts this drive on BYU's 30.

BYU at Oklahoma Drive # 4 (via pbysh)

1-10 BYU30 Murray, DeMarco rush for 7 yards to the BY23 (HOOKS, Terrance). Again, BYU really struggled against this Wildcat stuff (and in a related note, running QB's.) just as they did last year. The Cougars get gashed for a 7 yard gain on 1st down again.
2-3 BYU23 Murray, DeMarco rush for 7 yards to the BY16, 1ST DOWN OU (CLAWSON, Coleby). 7 yards on the familiar stretch play. Again, BYU definitely isn't stopping OU.
1-10 BYU16 Murray, DeMarco rush for 9 yards to the BY7, fumble forced by RICH, Andrew, fumble by Murray, DeMarco recovered by BY DOMAN, Shawn at BY5. And there you have it. 3 straight runs of 7+ and a very promising drive ends in a fumble. We know fumble recoveries are random. Give BYU credit for forcing the fumble, but if my defense forces a fumble 9 yards downfield on the 3rd consecutive running play of 7 or more yards, I'm still really concerned about my run defense.

Important Comment:

"If you force BYU to bring a safety down close to the box for run support, that means they have single coverage on the outside and they can't match up."

Tuck that little gem away.

On OU's 5th drive, they had a personal foul, which was declined. On their 6th drive, they tried to pound the run and BYU stopped them. Why they didn't go to the play-action pass, I have no idea. I think OU's playcalling in this game was disjointed (probably because they couldn't get into a rhythm with all the stoppages), and not very timely.

Oklahoma Drive # 7

OU is rolling. Mixing in the play-action as BYU is selling out to stop the run. Check it out.

1-10 OU20 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Broyles, Ryan for 17 yards to the OU37, 1ST DOWN OU (RICH, Andrew). Not shown.
1-10 O37 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Tennell, Adron for 13 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN OU (BRADLEY, Brando), PENALTY BY personal foul (CLAWSON, Coleby) 15 yards to the BY35, 1ST DOWN OU. Not shown.

Up 7-0 and driving, OU again shoots themselves in the foot:

BYU at Oklahoma Drive #7 (via pbysh)- 1-10 B35 Bradford, Sam pass complete to Broyles, Ryan for loss of 1 yard to the BYU36, fumble forced by RICH, Andrew, fumble by Broyles, Ryan recovered by BY DENNEY, Brett at BY37.

OU's carelessness with the football again hurts them. The receiver was pretty clearly tackled, and #47 is late getting out to his block, but again BYU is benefiting from a crucial fumble recovery, which we know from years and years of performance, are random.

OU's 8th drive would see them overcome a holding penalty and snag a field goal and get Sam Bradford injured on a well designed blitz by BYU. From that point on, Oklahoma would use redshirt freshman Landry Jones at QB.

Oklahoma's 9th Drive

BYU at Oklahoma Drive #9 (via pbysh)

1-10 OU41 Brown, Chris rush for 1 yard to the OU42 (TIALAVEA, Russe), PENALTY OU illegal block (Broyles, Ryan) 15 yards to the OU27. Again, OU being sloppy with the offensive penalties. If OU couldn't overcome their own self-imposed down and distance deficits with the Heisman Trophy Winner, do you think they can do it with a Redshirt Freshman?
1-24 OU27 1st and 24, Brown, Chris rush for 3 yards to the OU30 (HOOKS, Terrance;DENNEY, Brett). BYU's defense doesn't respect the redshirt freshman and instead starts keying on the running game that had gashed them up until this point.
2-21 OU30 Jones, Landry pass complete to Caleb, Brandon for 13 yards to the OU43 (BRADLEY, Brando). Jones makes a really nice throw here, and it would be perfect were it 2nd and 10 or 8, but again, OU's stupid and lazy penalties have put themselves behind the 8-ball.
3-8 OU43 Jones, Landry pass incomplete to Tennell, Adron (LOGAN, Brian). BYU brings the same blitz that knocked Bradford out of the game, and because they have another 3rd and 5+ situation, OU has to try to beat it deep.

This game was the absolute dream scenario for OU. Have a super high-powered offense try to do too much with too green an offensive line (their center just switched over from tight end, and missed several protection calls in this game, something at which FSU's center Ryan McMahon is very good.). On to drive # 10:

Oklahoma's 10th Drive

BYU at Oklahoma Drive #10 (via pbysh)

1-10 OU48 Murray, DeMarco rush for 13 yards to the BY39 (JOHNSON, Scott), PENALTY OU holding (Brandon, Cory) 10 yards to the OU38, NO PLAY. Lazy feet by Oklahoma's new right tackle, as he uses poor technique and gets beat inside. The inconsistency from OU's offensive line is pretty shocking, particularly compared to what we saw from OU last season. In any case, OU is in another bad down and distance.
1-20 OU38 Jones, Landry pass complete to Broyles, Ryan for 3 yards to the OU41 (HOOKS, Terrance). BYU is perfectly happy to let OU throw for 3 yards on 1st and 20. This screen is terribly run and it's obvious that with the new offensive line and brand new QB, OU's offense is all out of sorts. If only they could stay on schedule, with 2nd and 6 or 3rd and 3.
2-17 OU41 Jones, Landry pass complete to Miller, Dejuan for 8 yards to the OU49 (LOGAN, Brian). BYU's defense is very good in 2nd and 8+. This play is a win for them.
3-9 OU49 Jones, Landry sacked for loss of 1 yard to the OU48 (HOOKS, Terrance). 3rd and 7 or more? Advantage BYU. Have a guy you just moved from tight end starting at center, trying to call new protections to a group of green offensive linemen? Expect sacks.

That's about it for the play-by-play. The point of this was to show that while BYU's defense is probably improved from last year, OU really grounded its own offense more than BYU stopped the Sooners.

The Sooners had 4 1st downs of 1st and 20.
1 out of every 7 1st downs for OU was of more than 10 yards.
OU comitted 9 offensive penalties for almost 100 penalty yards.
OU faced 18 2nd downs. Almost half were 2nd and 10 or more. A third of OU's 2nd downs were 2nd and 11+, including 2nd and 12, 12, 16, 17, 17, and 21.
OU had only 2 2nd and 3 or less downs.
75% of Oklahoma's 3rd downs were 3rd and 5+.
2/3rd's of the Sooner's 3rd downs were 3rd and 8 or more, and remarkably, more than 1/3rd of their 3rd downs were 3rd and 12 or more!

BYU does some things well on defense, and some things not so well, but every defense does better when the offense is in long downs. OU was 2-11 on 3rd down coversions because they were constantly trying to climb out of the hole they dug for themselves.

Can BYU count on FSU gifting them the game to the Cougar defense? Probably not.

Where OU's offensive line had only 23 career starts, FSU's offensive line has 85+ career starts.
OU was breaking in 4 new offensive line starters, one at a new position, and only one starter had over 10 career starts. FSU's entire offensive line is back intact, and all of the starters have started 10+ games at the same position at which they are currently playing.
While OU had a converted tight end playing center calling the protections, FSU's center is in his 3rd year starting. While Ryan McMahon is seen as merely good as opposed to excellent by some FSU fans, he is excellent making sure the offensive line is correct in their protections. BYU isn't likely to get free rushers coming at quarterback Christian Ponder like they did against Oklahoma. The Cougars were very smart, however, to take advantage of a tight end playing center by using a variety of looks and blitz packages. You have to hand it to them, BYU has some very creative stuff on defense.
Florida State's offensive line is very good (considered one of the best in the country). They surrendered only 1 sack against Miami on 42 pass plays, an excellent 2% sack allowed rate. If BYU wants to get pressure on Christian Ponder, they better be prepared to bring a lot of rushers, and if they do that, they better hope FSU is in a 2nd or 3rd and long situation. Otherwise, it's FSU's playmakers one-on-one in the open field with BYU's defenders.
Not only that, but the Noles offense is not heavily penalized. They committed only 3 penalties for 35 yards in the season opener against Miami (one of which was highly questionable). I'll discuss this later in the week, but if BYU wants to get FSU into 2nd and 8+ or 3rd and 5+ situations, they are going to have to take chances. FSU simply doesn't surrender many tackles for loss, and BYU did a very poor job of getting tackles for loss against Oklahoma. See for yourself:

FSU had the best rushing offense in the ACC last year, and one of the better ones in the country when you adjust for opponent defensive quality. I don't think that has gone away. Teams didn't believe Ponder could throw on them, so they loaded up against the run and gave FSU the pass. But he's now shown that he can, posting consecutive career highs in passing yards. Additionally, as ESPN's announcer's astutely noted, BYU can't hang with fast receivers in man coverage. They depend on playing soft zone, which works great when they have a lead or when the other team can't run the ball, but if the opponent can run... BYU will have to make some changes, one of which will assuredly involve a gamble BYU is likely to lose on the outside.
BYU has some interesting choices to make in this game, and I'll address those as the week rolls on, but one thing is clear: BYU can't count on FSU to give them the game like OU did.

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

'Nole Your Enemy: The Huge North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:17:13 -0000

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles, which is basically two bye weeks). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Last week we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense, and yesterday we looked at UNC's Offense. If you're a fan of one of these teams, please remember that this preview of your team is from the perspective of an FSU fan. If we don't show your team respect, it's probably backed up by their performance or personnel losses. We welcome your thoughts.

Carolina's defense of a year ago is tough to analyze. What conclusions can you draw from their performance?

Inside, we''ll try to break this down, discuss what UNC has coming back, their scheme, how the 'Noles will attack that scheme, and how UNC will counter.

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

Defensive Line

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He'll have to hold off 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day.

So this group is huge and talented. They played the run very well last year, but they were not good at getting sacks. I don't care about sacks, but I do care about getting pressure on the QB. The Tar Heels weren't very good at doing that, and they have to improve on that this season, because their defensive coordinator is not a blitz guy. The starting defensive line generated only 5.5 sacks last year. That's extremely low, and they have to improve the pressure. I have every reason to expect that they will, considering everyone is back and in their 3rd year in the program. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will this battle of well coached talent.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. They did lose Excellent Middle Linebacker Mark Paschal, who some feel was merely good, not great, and benefited from the excellent play of the defensive tackles in front of him. To cover for him, 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant will shift from Weakside backer to the middle spot. Look for his numbers to explode as he will be protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. Heck, Paschal led the nation in tackles last season, and everyone thinks Paschal is better. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. He's going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all good in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC.

The only questions at linebacker are at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 220') sophomore who is very raw. I don't know enough about him or the backups, other than to say that they are really inexperienced. If Carter or Sturdivant go down, I would expect a big dropoff in production.

Front-7 Size

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs. How does that rate against other defensive fronts FSU played last year?

There are two ways to stop FSU's running game and not get burned by the bubble screen (a pass FSU throws exceptionally well) Essentially, the bubble screen is a tool to make sure that the deffense plays 7 in the box and not 8. If the defense cheats and brings extra men against the run, we throw the bubble to keep them honest. :

The first is to have a huge, disciplined front 7, that is difficult to cut block. One that takes good angles and doesn't allow cutbacks. This allows teams to play straight upon the receivers, also maintaining deep coverage. Or...

Play 8 in the box and play zero coverage-press man against each receiver. Virginia Tech did this and they were eventually burned deep. This requires excellent athletes in the secondary, and nobody on FSU's schedule should expect their cornerbacks to cover FSU's 4 and 5* receivers without safety help.

As we'll see in a second, UNC does not have the option to play number two. They have to hope their front-7 can stop the run. What did other front 7's do against FSU's run game?

Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards. Wake was very big.They were able to play the bubble straight up, which worked very well. They also had 4 seniors on defense drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137 Big and supremely talented, our rushing success came primarily in garbage time.

Miami 1785lbs, 54 rushes, 281 yards. There is a pretty big drop off from UF to Miami (55lbs). Remember here that our rushing success came primarily on reverses and Ponder running, most of which was a result of Miami's idiotic plan to defense our attack. We bubbled them to death when they went 8 or 9 in the box.

Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards. Remember that GTech was missing 2 key linebackers and a safety. Still, this is a big drop in weight from the 3 schools over 1835lbs.

Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards. Poor numbers. Explanation? Yes. VT played 8 in the box and manned up on the wide receivers. If you're puzzled, remember what happened: the only thing open was the deep ball. They saturated the running lanes and pressed FSU's wideouts. Eventually, FSU burned them deep.

Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards These numbers aren't amazing, but much of this game was us trying to control the clock while battling holding penalties. They also include lost sack yardage (which isn't a run play). Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards Maryland struggled all game in choosing to defend the bubble or the run.

Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards The smallest front we played AND they decided to stop the bubble. Running wild was the obvious result.

UNC has one of the biggest fronts in the country and will obviously be one of the best fronts FSU faces. Every offensive linemen is back for FSU, and three are All-America candidates (even if 'Nole fans know their center is overrated). The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are much bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball, but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC was quite good against the run last year:

via assets.sbnation.com

And while stopping the run is definitely important and factors heavily into stopping the pass because of the situations it creates, a team still has to actually stop the pass, and despite their high interception totals, they were not a great pass defense team. They are above average, which in the ACC, wasn't all that special.

The Secondary

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year, and Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to Hembry. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 200' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. I'm not sure of his cover skills, and as we discussed infra, he will be asked to cover more than support the run. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. But they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested after playing two joke programs before this game. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them, as well as NC State. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

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'Nole Your Enemy: The Boston College Eagle's Offense

FSUncensored — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 22:36:03 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

4 months ago: Boston College quarterback David Shinskie passes the ball during NCAA college football practice, Friday, Aug. 14, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Browse more photos »

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with Boston College. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense.

On October 3rd, the 'Noles will travel to Chetnutt Hill to face the Boston College Eagles. Last year, BC got the best of the 'Noles in Tallahassee, 27-17. The year before that, FSU beat BC at their place and eliminated the Eagles from National Title Contention (remember that they had Matt Ryan in 2007). The year before that, BC beat FSU in Tallahassee (the day game where Weatherford threw the horrible pick-6 right before the half).

But how good was last year's BC offense and how good will they be this year?

On offense, Boston College was not great, but they weren't as bad as you might think.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index calls them the 43rd rated offense, while Bill Connelley's S&P+ measure says they were the 46th. That's very close. Remember that these measures adjust for opponent, so BC doesn't get a lot of credit for torching cupcakes, and they don't get offensive credit when their defense scores. They also don't credit teams for scoring in garbage time. Let's have a look:

FSU had the best offense in the conference, arguably, though this meausre has Georgia Tech a bit better. Boston College's was sort of middle of the road.

Here's Bill Connelley's measure (100 is considered average, so over 100 is good, under 100 is not):

FSU had the best offense in the conference by this measure. Boston College's was sort of middle of the road.

Here's a look at their passing game:

Hmm, it seems that BC's passing game was pretty average.

Here's their run game:

So Boston College's rushing game was pretty average as well.

I'll save you the charts, but their performance in conference games was about the same. That doesn't really matter though, because the above metrics adjust for opponent (playing a cupcake won't help the above numbers because of the opponent adjustment). Still you can check out that link if you want.

The Eagles lost up and coming star coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was fired after flirting with the NFL. That's a smart move for Boston College, because Jags is a very hot commodity and would have left soon anyways. He got a lot out of his players and his team outperformed the expectations of everyone. The Eagles also lost highly respected Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach, Steve Logan. Both are not with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Replacing Jagodzinski is longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. More on him later. Replacing Logan is Gary Tranquil, who was born in 1940. At one time, he was a decent offensive coach, but he's been out of the college game for 4 years. Where Logan was excellent and really took advantage of his player's talents and opposing defenses, Tranquil is not highly thought of. He runs a pro-style offense, does not spread teams out, and does not utilize his quarterback in the run game at all. His schemes are simple and from a purely schematic standpoint, Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews should own him. They are also abandoning their zone blocking scheme. Tranquil's offense is literally what Mickey Andrew's defense is designed to stop. See for yourself:

FSU's Defense		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent Type	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Decidedly Not Pro-Style	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

What I am trying to say is that Tranquil is a huge downgrade from Logan, but against FSU, it's an even bigger downgrade. Last year, BC used the threat of the QB run to hurt FSU's defense, including a 16 play (all rushing)- 67 yard drive, consuming 8:55 of the clock and icing the game (ended in a field goal). They literally ran the same play over and over again. FSU's defense was so poorly taught under lame duck coaches Mickey Andrews and Chuck Amato, that they let BC run some variation of the same play for at least 10 of those snaps. In any case, what we're hearing out of BC's camp is that the Eagles will run a pro-style attack featuring two backs. That will be juuuuust fine with the 'Noles.

Quarterback

Under center, The Eagles lost Chris Crane, who was inconsistent but not terrible. They also lost Dominique Davis, who failed out of school and has since transferred. Davis wasn't very good anyways, so that's not a big deal. In keeping with the elderly theme will be Dave Shinskie, a 25 year-old Pocket passer who played minor league baseball. He hasn't played football in 6 years. More on him here. I project him to be a decent passer, because he was a decent prospect coming out of high school. He's not a run threat, however, and that's really what the 'Noles care about. Seeing that he's a freshman, but older than this author, his maturity might mean that he won't be a huge downgrade. Of course, he also hasn't worked with these wideouts all off-season and been in the system at all.

Our friends at BC Interruption helped us out a bit here and Brian had this to add:

There is some serious talk about true freshman Michael Marscovetra starting. He has had as good of a summer as any other candidate and has good arm strength. I think the deciding factor will be Shinskie's maturity though and his effect in the huddle. Notable how far Justin Tuggle has slid down the depth chart, but as you point out, Tranquill/Spaz favor the pro-style pocket passer to the Tuggle/Davis, running-QB mold that Jags/Logan recruited. Just hope that Tuggle can be used in another way (message board chatter has been throw him in at LB just like his dad?).

I really don't know much about Marscovetra.

Offensive Line

Boston College has a great offensive line. We talk a lot about how good FSU's O-Line can be, but I am here to tell you that BC's line is every bit as good. This is one of the best offensive lines in the country. They return all 5 starters. This is an excellent group. People make a big deal about his "big" these guys are, but they really aren't huge.

LT Anthony Castonzo (6-7, 287, Jr.)
RT Rich Lapham (6-8, 322, Jr.)
LG Thomas Claiborne (6-3, 323, Jr.)
RG Emmett Cleary (6-7, 270, R-Fr.)
C Matt Tennant (6-4, 294, Sr.)

Castonzo is a likely NFL 1st day pick (2nd rounder, maybe 1st, probably 2011 draft). He is an excellent pass blocker and is pretty quick. FSU's defensive end will have a tough time doing much against him. Lapham is obviously huge at right tackle. He is a very good run blocker but has bad feet and is a liability in pass protection. Not an NFL player. At Left Guard, Claiborne is an ex-defensive tackle who was excellent last year. He was 3rd team ALL-ACC last year and should be even better this year. Claiborne is an NFL player provided he keeps his weight in check. At Left Guard, Cleary is the newcomer to the group. He could be good eventually and was a tackle coming out of high school, but he's quite raw and will need to work on his back and knee bend to be any good. At Center, Tennant should be first team ACC. He's better than FSU's Ryan McMahon, though obviously less known. Don't get mad, FSU fans, I'm just giving it to you straight. BC has at least three NFL linemen who are probably 1st day (top 4 round) selections on their line. They return 4 starters and the line has 4 upperclassmen. This is an excellent offensive line and will make BC's skill position players look much better than they are. This isn't the most heralded unit in the country, but unless you judge offensive lines on things other than performance, talent, or experience, they should be. FSU will have one heckuva time against this unit.

Running Back

The Eagles look much better at running back. Montel Harris is their big back at 5' 10" 200. He had one heckuva game last year against the 'Noles as a freshman. He's not a home run threat, and this author thinks he's more of a product of BC's offensive line, but he does what is asked of him and grinds out tough yards. Last year he gained 900 yards on 179 carries (5 YPC), and caught 20 balls for 160 yards. The other back is Josh Haden, a scatback who gained 479 yards on 120 carries (4 YPC). He's 5'8" 182lbs, but should catch a few more balls this year. Blocking for these two is Senior James McClusky. He's 6'2" 250lbs and a mauler. He did hurt his Achilles in spring, however, and the Eagles desperately need him to be healthy this year as they utilize a 2-back attack. I fully expect Harris to get 200 carries this year, and also expect his average to drop a bit as other teams key on him more.

Wide Receiver/ Tight Ends

The Eagles aren't hurting much here either, but they aren't exactly loaded. They have to replace their best wideout and their best tight end, in Brandon Robinson and Ryan Purvis, respectively. Robinson caught 42 balls for 646 yards. Purvis snagged 24 for 176 yards. The Eagles do return Rich Gunnell, who was basically Robinson's equal in production, though far less explosive. Florida State's Patrick Robinson can easily handle him one on one without help (Robinson is CBS' #1 Draft Eligible Corner), and he'll be asked to as the 'Noles focus on stopping the run. They also have Justin Jarvis, who is 6'5" and was decently productive this year. Can Jarvis handle the increased role? That remains to be seen, but the Eagles are counting on him. The remaining guys are relatively unheralded wild cards. Junior Ifeanyi Momah is 6'6" 230 and caught 11 for 149 and 3TD's last season. He's their Greg Carr, except bulkier and about as fast as your average tight end. RsFr Clyde Lee had a decent spring I am told and could play some in the slot (though I suspect BC will not use many 3-wide sets). Finally, can Senior Clarence Megwa (6'1" 190) come back from a thought to be career-ending leg injury? If he can, BC will need him, because he started for them last year. Update: Megwa's leg is apparently healed, he's dealing with a hand injury and they expect him to be ready for the FSU game.

At tight end, 6'3" 250lb Soph Lars Anderson has a chance to be a very good pass catcher. Last year he snagged 9 balls for 85 yards. They also have Jordan McMichael, who was a very nice recruit in 2006 (I think), but has done nothing to date to impress anyone.

I don't think any of the draft eligible guys will get drafted. They really don't seem all that special. They aren't bad, but rather are just average college players.

Boston College's offense should not be as good as they were last year by the time FSU rolls into town. I believe that BC's offensive staff is now much worse than they were last year (think Jeff Bowden bad), and their quarterback hasn't played organized football in 6 years. By the end of the season this offense might be as good as they were last year, but this preview concerns the FSU-BC game, so I don't care about what the Eagles do later in the year. As noted above, their scheme plays right into FSU's hands. FSU will be able to use the schemes that made Mickey Andrews famous, single cover Gunnell with Robinson, and dare BC to throw. I expect this offense to lack explosiveness, and while FSU will probably be burned once or twice with play-action, FSU's full-commitment to stopping the running game should be well worth it.

Tomorrow: Taking a look at BC's defense.

For more on BC, see:

BC Interruption or Eagle in Atlanta

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