SB Nation - Budd Thacker

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Florida State Tuesday Practice Report: The 'Noles Seek Consistent Focus

FSUncensored — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 21:40:28 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State University assistant head football coach Jimbo Fisher watches players warm up. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

It's no secret that FSU is reaping the benefits of their excellent off-season conditioning program. The Seminoles are moving at a quicker pace and are getting in a lot more plays. That worked well for the first three practices, but today the heat and intensity got to a few guys as they lost focus. The coaches were not pleased.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - The dog days of preseason football camp are clearly underway, but the prospect of donning full pads for the first time Wednesday morning is something the Florida State football team is looking forward to with great anticipation.

"Everybody is looking forward it," said FSU senior defensive tackle Budd Thacker. "It gives everybody more of an incentive to go out and hit somebody. We'll get in some goal line, which is always a tough thing for the guys."

I saw Thacker on Sunday. He looks to be bigger in the upper body but his legs are tiny and I heard that he did not make the progress the coaches wanted in his rehab. Defensive tackle Moses McCray is now working with the first team, a move 'Nole fans should celebrate.

Tuesday's 2 1/2-hour workout seemed to take a toll on the team, as it battled sweltering temperatures and the raised expectations of the coaching staff.

"It was very obvious we weren't as peppy today as we were yesterday," said FSU coach Bobby Bowden, who for the fourth consecutive workout spent significant time on the practice field, rotating between different segments. "The kids have handled everything good so far. I hope they can keep it up."

I spoke with Bert Reed Sunday, and he emphasized the need to play hard every snap, and every practice period. "We took periods off last year. We would start strong, slack off, and then try to finish strong. We cannot do that. We don't do that this year," Reed said. "We have to bring it every play. We have to know what to do and think every play." So far, the practices had gone pretty well. Reed said that FSU had actually run out of things to do because of the increased pace, as the coaches actually underestimated the squad. FSU is getting in 25% more plays per practice session, from the high 80's to the one-teens.

That will be especially challenging over the next two days. After getting their first taste of full pads Wednesday, the Seminoles are scheduled for their first two-a-day session on Thursday.

It is the kind of drain that will test the resolve of the team, which the players insist in stronger and more unified than ever.

"It's hot, but when it comes down to it, it's all in your head," said Thacker. "You've got to do it and help each other out."

Quarterback Christian Ponder said practicing in full pads provides a better look and barometer of exactly where the team is at this juncture.

"You put the pads on and really play football," Ponder said. "It's different going in just helmets and shoulder pads. You don't get a real look. When you put the full pads on it really shows where we are right now."

The 'Noles have to be more physical, specifically on defense, and we will get to see that for the first time tomorrow.

It may also serve to heighten focus while under duress; something that waned at times Tuesday.

"Toward the end of practice (focus) definitely plays a role," Ponder added. "That's better for us because it will help us out in the long run."

Andrew Carter lets us know that talented but inconsistent Sophomore Wide Reciever Jarmon Fortson got reamed by Fisher today. He ran the wrong routes and just lacked attention to detail

."J-man (Fortson) could be whatever J-man wants to be," said Fisher. "J-man just has to decide if he wants to do it every play -- which he does, I'm not saying he doesn't. But I'm talking about focus. Sometimes you run the route, and, 'am I really focused on what I'm doing?' When he does it, he can do whatever he wants to do. It's not a knock on him, it's something that happens with youth. As he gets more experienced with it, and learns to concentrate, he'll get better. But when he focuses, he's a heck of a football player."

Quarterback Christian Ponder agreed.

"His mind kind of gets to him a little bit," Ponder said. "He gets frustrated sometimes. He just needs to grow a little bit, but he made a lot of great plays at the end. When he's in it, he does well. The kid's a freak. Once he gets over the maturity hump, he'll be good."

It appears that Senior Richard Goodman is the favorite to start over Fortson. That makes sense, because FSU doesn't need amazing from it's wide receivers. With the 'Nole's running game, FSU just needs consistently good. Be where you should be. Know the route you must run before the ball is snapped. Fortson is a better talent than Goodman, but Goodman is no slouch and is the better player right now. ESPN has more on Goodman:

"In the offseason there was so much that happened to the point where the only way to go is up," Goodman said. " ... We're not guaranteeing any wins, but you can quote me on this when I tell you this: The Florida State receiving corps, the Florida State offense, and the team, period, we're going to play four quarters of football every game."

Goodman could have a really, really big surprising year for the 'Noles. He's definitely the senior leader

Bowden looks forward to the full pads contact because it is often the best gauge to determine which freshmen may be most prepared for action early on.

"Sometimes a guy that has been looking OK, but not outstanding, when he puts the pads on he becomes outstanding," Bowden said. "Those are things we find out as we watch kids play."

Jacobbi McDaniel is apparently in line for some serious PT at Defensive Tackle. I think he has amazing potential but probably will be inconsistent, since he a freshman.

While Tuesday's practice provided a limited number of highlights during 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 team drills, Bowden did cite a pair of players for outstanding plays.

Sophomore tight end Beau Reliford, more accomplished as a basketball player in high school, stretched out to make an outstanding catch during 11-on-11 work. It was one of many on the day for the raw-boned, 6-foot-7 youngster, who has been impressive throughout the early stages of camp.

"(Reliford) is coming along," Bowden said. "He came in here with outstanding talent and he's really becoming a football player."

He's getting some serious work at H-Back. Reliford is of course very raw, as he only played 2 years of high school football. He does have some serious athletic ability.

Reliford said it's "kind of weird" lining up as an h-back, but he was also spread out wide today. He said he's much more confident this year because he spent so much time in the offseason studying the playbook. More here from ESPN.

Heather has a good article there. FSU will use Reliford all over the field this year, like an H-Back, which we detailed last week.

The other end of the experience spectrum, senior free safety Jamie Robinson had an interception return for a touchdown near the end of the practice session. It was Robinson's second in as many days, on the heels of an outstanding spring by the one-time cornerback.

"Those were the two biggest plays out there today," Bowden said.

Senior Jamie Robinson is having an all-star camp, just like he did in the spring. He reminds some of Dexter Jackson. Robinson has always had good ball skills.

Finally, Steve Ellis who runs the excellent Democrat blog, offers some great nuggets:

JaJuan Harley looks very good returning kicks. (As does A.J. Alexander)
Greg Reid, Bert Reed, and Chris Thompson look good returning punts (excellent all over really. He doesn't look like a freshman).

Progression, Stagnation, or Regression? Noles Defensive Line

FrankDNole — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:55:46 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

Recently I came across a similar series that I thought I could apply to our 2009 Seminoles, which might make for entertaining reading to some of our TN members. While this series may not actually answer my question, it might at least give us something to discuss and debate until more information starts rolling in once the practices actually start.

What I will attempt to do, is to project how our 7 basic units (defensive line, linebackers, secondary, backfield, offensive line, receivers and tight ends, and special teams) of the 2009 Noles will perform as compared to last season team.

The way we will try to come up with a possible answer is to address each of the 7 units above individually, by using the projected 2 deeps as of today, in comparison with last years starters. We will look at who was there last season, analyze the roster changes, if any, and then we will all decide if these changes will result in progression, regression, or if we can expect little or no change.

We must remember that with the kickoff still over a month away, and the start of practices still over one week away, it will be impossible to reach definite conclusions at this time. There could very well be injuries, promotions, demotions, and incoming freshmen who might surprise us all. I will ask you the TN members to project via poll, (your favorite way and the easiest and most accurate measure available to us) how well you expect the 7 individual units will perform this season. At the end of the series, I will report back to you, the TN readers, what your expectations of this team are at this point in time.

Recently NoleThruandThru gave us his projected two-deep lineup and asked you for your thoughts on the 2-deeps. While there were some very good comments and opinions posted as to what may happen before and during the upcoming season, for the purpose of this series I will be using only the official Seminole 2-deep lineups posted along with some projections and input I received from FSUncensored.

Please remember that while we lost some very good individual talent, we want to look at the each unit as a whole when we finally vote on whether that particular unit has progressed, stayed stagnant, or regressed, in comparison to last years unit.

Today we will start with the DEFENSIVE LINE.

2008 DE=Benjamin Lampkin (really a LB) started the first 3 games, then was replaced by Neffy Moffett who started the rest of the season. In 10 games played, Moffett had 19 Total Tackles of which 11 were for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 int, 2 QBH, and forced two fumbles and recovered one. Both players are now gone.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Kevin McNeil and Jamar Jackson

2008 NG=Moses McCray started the first 2 games then was replaced by Budd Thacker who started every remaining game until the Champs Bowl when Paul Griffin started his last game as a Nole. Griffin is the only one gone and only had 11 Total Tackles, 1 for loss, 1 QBH, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED NG=Moses McCray and Budd Thacker

2008 DT=Kendrick Stewart started 8 games and Justin Mincey started 4 games, 3 of which were the last 3 games.

2009 PROJECTED DT=Justin Mincey and Kendrick Stewart

2008 DE=Everette Brownhas left and taken his 36 total tackles of which 21.5 were for losses, 13.5 sacks, 2 pass BU, 3 QBH, 4 FF, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Markus White and Toshmon Stevens.

OTHERS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE: Everett Dawkins (SDE), Brandon Jenkins(WDE), Jacobbi McDaniel (DT), Demonte McAllister (DT/SDE)

Well there you have it. I guess the real question is not if Brown and Moffett can be replaced, but whether their replacements will be able to keep up the kind of pressure on the QB we saw last year, to prevent the rest of the defense from being shredded.

MY PROJECTION: REGRESSION.

What is yours? Please vote now.

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Poll

2009 FSU DEFENSIVE LINE-PROGRESSION, STAGNATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the whole article before voting. Poll closes Friday July 31 at 7:00 PM

PROGRESSION

180 votes

STAGNATION

117 votes

REGRESSION

58 votes

355 votes | Poll has closed

Back to Basics: A Detailed Look at Defensive Line Play

TrueCubbie — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:07:58 -0000

Like offensive lineman, defensive lineman typically don't attract much attention from the casual fan, seen as the brutes up front that simply run into each other over and over. As FSUn demonstrated so nicely in his recent piece, offensive line play is a coordinated series of movements based on real time interpretation of the defensive front. Without an understanding or appreciation the subtleties required to play on the offensive and defensive line, it's understandable why many overlook these players during the game, except when they make a significant error.

In this piece, we take a closer look at the subtleties of defensive line play, providing an understanding of what really goes on down in the trenches and some important things to look for when evaluating recruits.

Image from here.

Continue reading this thread to learn more about what is some of the most exciting play on the football field.

If you can't control the line of scrimmage your chances of winning a football game significantly decrease. A dominating defensive line, or even lineman, will impact the outcome of a game. If a quarterback has no time to throw the ball, if the running back can't turn the corner, if the offensive line can't control the line of scrimmage, it's over. In this article, we will take a look at some of the basics about defensive line play followed by a discussion about effective line play.

In general, most teams will use 3 or 4 defensive linemen in their base defensive fronts. When announcers and coaches talk about a 3-4 front or 4-3 front, the first number refers to the number of true defensive lineman. The second number refers to the number of linebackers. Occasionally, teams will go to a five man defensive lineman front, but I would say this is exceedingly rare as most teams will walk line backers up to the line of scrimmage to load the line. A four man front typically includes two defensive tackles and two defensive ends. The three man front is a little more flexible, but will generally include a pure nose tackle, a defensive end and a defensive tackle. In a 3-4 scheme, a line backer typically walks up as the fourth defensive lineman. Again, this is a very basic discussion about basic alignment and the schemes and personnel will vary from team to team.

The Basics: Techniques and Gaps

Before getting into the details of defensive line play one must have an understanding of alignment. The image below illustrates the typical numbering system that is used to identify the position of the defensive lineman:

It's not the clearest image but it is probably the most comprehensive one that I could find. The circles represent offensive linemen, with the center being the filled in circle. The letters define the "gaps" between the offensive linemen. The numbers, also referred to as the "technique," identify the locations at which the defensive players line up. For example, a "0" technique is lined up directly on the center, the "1" technique is on the inside shoulder, meaning the side closest to the center, of the guard. You will frequently hear commentators say that a player lined up in the 3 technique or 1 technique; the above image illustrates to what they are referring. Many teams will use the numbering schems in play calling. For example, when I played, the initial part of the play call referred to the base front. If the coach called "431," it meant we were using a 4 man front with the strong side tackle in the 3 technique and the weak side tackle in the 1 technique. Strength refers to the balance of the offense and generally identifies which side of the offense has more players or the tight end or the best player or however the defense identifies strength for their particular scheme.

You will also hear that specific players are responsible for a specific "gap." The gaps are identified by the letters between the offensive players: A gap is between the guard and center, the B gap is between the guard and tackle and so on. Depending on the scheme, a player may be responsible for collapsing a specific gap, blitzing through a gap or occupying a gap. Most defensive line schemes will have the defensive tackles lined up in the 3 and 1 technique. Again, this varies depending on the type of personnel a team has. For example, with a BJ Raj like player, you may have that individual line up in the 0-technique, shaded to the strong side of the play with the intention of occupying the A-gap requiring a block from both the center and guard. I can't tell you how hard it is to play center with a guy right on top of the ball.

Stunts

Stunts refer to predefined movements of the defensive line. Defensive linemen do not simply go straight ahead on every play. Sometimes they will play straight up and try to maintain their responsibility. On many occasions, a defensive coordinator will call for a specific stunt, making it more difficult for the offensive line to block. These stunts can be done as an entire defensive line with every player crashing to he weak or strong side, or it could be limited to the tackles or individual players. Stunts will change the specific gap responsibilities of the lineman as well as the backers behind them. Often a stunt will be used in combination with a blitz, using the stunt to pull a lineman away or distract the lineman from the linebacker that is now blitzing.

For example, here is a play in which all of the lineman pinch towards the center. This may be used in short yardage situations.

Here is another one in which only the tackles pinch:

And here is an example of a "loop" or "twist" play:

Here is an example of a play that demonstrates a stunt with the linemen combined with a linebacker blitz:

This play demonstrates some sophisticated line play. Look how far the Right defensive end (the one on the left side of the page) is expected to crash down the line. The purpose of this is to pull the offensive tackle toward the center, with the hopes of him turning his shoulders toward the crashing lineman, making it almost impossible for him to pick up either linebacker blitzing from the outside. The whole purpose of this play, if you look at the lineman alone, is to pull the offensive line to their right with the hope of leaving the left tackle alone to block two blitzing linebackers. Defensive lineman do a lot of dirty work to allow the linebackers to play free behind them. A good defensive lineman should be very difficult to block one on one. If a defensive lineman is able to occupy more than one offensive lineman, you are decreasing the number of players available to block the linebackers.

Stance

A lineman's stance is exceedingly important in football. Offensive lineman need to be well balanced and not tip off which direction they are likely to step first; they have to be able to move in all directions from a set position. Defensive lineman take a more aggressive stance as they are trying to accelerate off the ball. Here is an example of a typical defensive end stance. This is also referred to as a three point stance. Notice how the player has his head up, has most of his weight on his down hand and has his free hand up.

Photo from here.

Having the free hand is important for getting the hand forward on the initial movement. The player above, Mark Anderson of the Chicago Bears, is in a bit of an exaggerated stance. He is primarily a pass rush specialist and his weight is a little more forward than you would want, but he demonstrates a lot of the principles of a good three point stance. Here is an excellent picture of Jason Taylor demonstrating a more balanced stance.

Photo from here.

A good lineman will not tip off the direction of his initial movement from his stance. Clearly, in a pass rush situation a player will take a more aggressive sprinting stance to get up the field. As I mentioned previously, it is important for a defensive lineman to keep his hands forward or in a good position to fire forward. By getting the hands firing forward on the initial move it prevents the offensive lineman from engaging. You will see a lot of offensive and defensive lineman working on what is called "hand play". Here is a video of Julius Pepper's training session. Notice how much of the work out includes hand strength and that explosion out of the stance, getting the hands forward and the body extended. Here is a video that highlights our own Everette Brown. Take a minute to not only watch Everette's athletic ability, but look at the different stances of our entire defensive line, watch the way they move, watch their hands, watch how the explode out of their stances. Look at the different stances that Everette takes, it changes depending on the situation. This may be getting into the minutia, but I think this is where some of the most exciting plays in football happen.

For comparison sake, here is an example of a good offensive lineman's stance:

Photo from here.

Balanced and head up. Notice how his weight isn't placed on his front hand. If you were to swipe that down hand out from underneath the player, his stance shouldn't budge. It may seem that too much time is being spent on a lineman's stance, but it is key to their success. If you give anything away or are out of control because you don't have a good stance, you will not be successful.

Reading Blocks

Typically, you can tell what kind of play the offense is going to run based on the initial step/movement of the offensive line. Part of being a successful defensive lineman is having the ability to react to that initial step, reading the play before it fully develops. Here is a video of USC's defensive line drills. Watch the explosion the players have with the hands, engaging the pads. At the end of the video they show some basic rip/swim moves that players use to shed blocks. Listen carefully to the coach as he gets on his players about keeping the offensive players away from them.

As the offensive and defensive player engage, the defensive player should get some sense of how the offensive lineman is trying to block him, meaning is he trying to hook him, is he trying to drive straight up field, is he settling into pass protection, is he pulling? The defensive lineman has to counter those moves. Imagine yourself as the defensive lineman. Now imagine that the offensive player is trying to pin/hook your left shoulder and drive you to your right. As a defensive lineman, your objective is to extend your left arm and drive the offensive player back into the hole he is trying to create. As a defensive end, if the offense is trying to seal the outside and get around you, you have to fight the offensive lineman and cause the play to move lateral, forcing it further outside while maintaining good leverage to get back inside if needed. I have tried to find good videos on this but I haven't as of yet. But I hope this demonstrates the importance of extending the arms and taking control of the offensive lineman. You will also note that a lot of defensive lineman are wearing smaller and smaller jerseys, having a large part of their arms exposed. This is to give the offensive lineman the least amount of jersey to hold; it's not to show off their biceps. Yes, offensive linemen hold on every single play.

A key block to read is that of the pulling offensive lineman. Defensive lineman are taught to get in the "hip pocket" of the pulling offensive lineman. If you are lined up in the three technique and the guard pulls, follow him as he will take you to the play. Easier said than done as the tackle or center is crashing down on your legs to cut you and prevent you from doing so. Keeping your legs is also a key part of reading blocks. Getting cut makes you useless. Recognizing that a player is trying to cut block you before he gets into your legs is a difficult skill as it happens so fast.

Pass Rush Moves

Watching the battle that develops between defensive ends and offensive tackles through a game is one of the most exciting parts of a football game. One could equate it to a pitcher trying to set up a batter to chase a pitch out of the zone. There are a variety of moves that are utilized by defensive linemen to get past their offensive opponent: swim move, rip move and bull rush. Here is a nice video from Mac Brown illustrating a couple of these moves. There are multiple variations on all of these moves.

There is the pure speed rush in which a defensive end basically tries to run past the tackle. You will see an end use this a few times in a row, getting the tackle to be extremely nervous about being beat to the outside. The tackle will try to set deeper and deeper and start to turn his shoulders outside. As soon as that happens and if the end recognizes that anxiety, he will use a spin move or rip move to come underneath the tackle. Defensive tackles will typically use more of bull rush technique as they have limited space with which to work. A really important part of a pass rush is recognizing if you're not going to get to the quarterback. If you're not, then you have to get your hands up, particularly on quick drops.

Here is a nice video of Simeon Rice demonstrating the spin move back to the inside. Here is a series of clips of Julius Peppers. Another outstanding video of our own Everette Brown. Here is one of BJ Raji's highlight tapes. The first two highlights demonstrate the classic bull rush move. One of the greatest pass rushers ever: Reggie White.

This is a video from Elite Football Academy showing multiple players using a variety of pass rush moves. It's a nice demonstration of the various moves players will use. Here is Jared Allen explaining a good pass rush stance and initial movement and here he is explaining the speed rush.

And last but not least this is an excellent video of the NFL's elite pass rushers explaining how they get it done. It illustrates the hand play and importance of the initial move off the ball. (By the way, I typed my baseball analogy before watching this video)

Positions

Classically, there are two defensive line positions: tackle and end. Unfortunately, the readers at TNation are way to sophisticated and well read to recognize that is an over simplification. One could argue that the following positions are represented on the defensive line: strong side end, weak side end, defensive tackle and nose guard. Within those positions, one could break it down even further into run and pass specialists. It is no longer surprising to watch groups of linemen run on and off the field depending on the down and distance. Some teams will flip flop there defensive line from play to play depending on the strength of the play or line up their best defensive end on the weakest tackle or line up their best defensive end on the right side of the defense. The last option typically results in the end rushing from the blindside of the quarterback as most quarterbacks are right handed. This is the reason that left tackles in the NFL get paid so much. A bad left tackle will get a quarterback seriously injured.

In general, a strong side defensive end is the leverage point of the defense. He cannot allow his outside shoulder to get pinned and allow an offense to turn the corner. In general, defensive ends are responsible for containing an offense and stretching plays laterally. Typically, again depending on the scheme, the strong side end is your larger/stronger end as he is playing at the point of attack. The strong side end will typically line up on the inside shoulder of the tight end, again this depends on scheme. He must be able to handle double teams and disrupt the outside of the line, allowing the strong side and middle linebackers to run free behind him. On passing plays, he must disrupt the tight end's release of the line.

Your weak side end is typically where you see your speed and where you will see your one on one match ups. Again, the weak side end must maintain leverage at the point of attack and contain the quarterback. It takes a lot of discipline to play on the weakside of the ball as it is easy to start chasing plays down to early or getting caught inside (see the Boston College game) and allowing teams to reverse the field to the outside. It is imperative that the weak side end stay at home until he is absolutely sure that the play is not a reverse.

Your nose tackle or nose guard is a special breed of player. They need to clog up space, occupy blockers and be disruptive: think BJ Raji. The nose guard will be your largest player on the line. A successful nose guard will allow the middle line backer to roam free behind the line of scrimmage. If you get to the point that your interior lineman are successfully blocked one on one, a team will run all over you and your line backers will be miserable. This position is about power, aggressive behavior and being down right nasty.

Defensive tackles are becoming more and more specialized, meaning they are pass or run specialists. Again, the key to being a successful defensive tackle is being disruptive.

For a more detailed discussion, I would like to share our own CaStauch's take on our defense from a few months ago:

The 43 under- one gap scheme denotes particular responsibilities to each player. Concurrently, each of these responsibilities are themselves the foundation their teammates responsibilities: each position reflexively impacts and allows each other position to function. Starting from strongside and going to weakside, with respect to the defense's point of view of the offense (in that the strongside of the defense lines up opposite the strongside of the offense, usually the one with a Tight End), the first position to analyze is the Strongside Defensive end. The SDE lines up on the outside shoulder of offensive tackle to his side. His position is important because it cuts off the angle from which the offensive tackle can move without resistance. This is the form of protection that he bestows upon the LB behind him: because of the angle of his lineup, the OT cannot easily block down on the second level LB without either going through the SDE or amidst the congested middle of the line. In order to make the former as difficult as possible, the SDE must possess some method of holding his ground. Most naturally, this would imply weight. Usually SDE's range from 270-285 pounds. E.J. Wilson, of UNC (Coached by John Blake, one of the foremost DL minds in the collegiate game) weighs in at 280 lbs. Tyson Jackson at LSU clocks in at 285. Southern Cal's SDE, on the other hand, weighed in this past season at 6'6" 275 lbs.

In addition to weight, the SDE needs some form of body composition that utilizes this girth. There are two options. The first, is two evenly distribute the weight in a lankier frame, like USC's Moore. A longer body implies longer limbs. This, in combination with the greater amount of space that a longer body eats up, allows the SDE to control the line of scrimmage by dictating the movement of the OL with his longer arms. Another model for this method is Carlos Dunlap from UF. If you were with us earlier in the season, you may remember my piece on spatial and temporal playmakers (http://www.tomahawknation.com/2008/11/23/668913/strategy-session-did-the-d). A lankier SDE is an example of such a spatial constriction: his control of his opponent and longer frame shortens the negative space between him, his opposite OL, and the next D-Lineman, thus constricting the space in which the offense has to exploit.

The second option for an SDE to utilize his size is a stockier frame to produce leverage. This requires a slightly heavier player, like UNC's to exasperate the adequate leverage over what is no doubt a much taller OL.

The moral of the story for the SDE is that his job is to be a clogger. He prevents the Linebackers behind him from being blocked by the OL and TE opposite him. His angle of deployment, that on the outside shoulder of the OT and inside shoulder of the TE, along with his girth and size, allow him to do this. FSU has suffered the lack of an SDE for much of this decade. Our SDE this past season? Neefy Moffett. As admirable he performed at times, his size (256 lbs) preventing him from consistently manning the clogger role needed. Behind him, we have Kevin McNeil and Everette Dawkins, both of whom may be able to weigh in at the necessary weight (at least 275). We're also recruiting a bevy of diversity at this position, including David Perry (6"6 240) and Darious Cummings (6'2 260) both in their junior years.

Next in line is maybe the most integral man in the 43 under front, the Nose Tackle. He lines up in the gap between the center and guard on the SDE's side. More than any other, his role is singularly that as a clogger. It is imperative that his physical presence prevents either the Center and Guard to a) defend him 1 on 1, freeing up one of the blockers, and b) bypassing the NT to the Mike or Will LBs behind him. To meet this responsibility, the NT, like the SDE, has choices. Either actually clog the middle of the line with his immense girth (this is the popular approach within the NFL and was clearly illustrated by B.J. Raji and Boston College), or prove to be strong enough and have enough of a competent knowledge of technique and leverage that the same goal is accomplished. The latter is more likely for FSU: not only is it easier to teach technique and develop strength on top of necessary bulk, but we've one of the better technical NT coaches in the country. Coming in at a mere 262 lbs, Coach Haggins turned Brod Bunkley into a chiseled 290 lb NT worthy of first round draft pick and pro bowl consideration. Southern Cal's analog was Averall Spicer, 6'2" and 295. Last year, we played with Budd Thacker, who weighed in at 275, and Paul Griffin, at 280 (doubtful). This was the most direct reason for our porous run defense.

The future, however, looks bright if not tenuous. Moses McCray is expected to play at ~305, and will add that impressive bulk with the mechanical muscle memory imbued from wrestling in high school that will make learning the technical skills much easier. Behind him, Jaccobi McDaniel should start at 280 but gain weight steadily from there, and every coach that has witnessed his domination at the last two All Star games has come away incredibly impressed with his technical ability already.

The Strongside Defensive End and Nose Tackle serve as the foundation upon which the 43 under front is built. They are the necessary brick and mortar that enables the next two pieces, the Defensive Tackle and
Weakside Defensive End, to perform as disrupters that cut the spatial and temporal advantages inherent in the Offense.

The Defensive Tackle lines up on the outside shoulder of the Guard on the weak side. His position, labeled a Three Technique affords him the luxury of a one on one matchup with the Guard. Shielded both by the
body of the Guard with whom he’s matched up, and his Nose Tackle’s clogging responsibility tying up the center, it is the Coach’s responsibility to recruit and develop a player that accentuates this disruptive potential. Here, Florida State has traditionally excelled. Darnell Dockett, arguably the MVP of the Cardinals late season surge,
exemplifies this most clearly, as does Travis Johnson. Southern Cal’s Fili Moala weighs in at 6’2" 290, and possesses the necessary fast-twitch acceleration and understanding of technique and leverage to consistently beat the OG he’s opposite and disrupt the play

Florida State’s answer to this need is Justin Mincey. So as long as he develops mentally (stays eligible) and physically (fills out), Justin is potentially the next in a long line of first round picks produced by Coach Haggins. His width and length, at 6’5", allows him to control and dictate the contact with the likely shorter and slower OG. His speed isn’t gone to waste; shielded by his angle and the NT, he is provided an ample two gaps worth of protection with which to work.

Alongside him, the Weakside Defensive End also serves as a disruptor. He deploys on the outside shoulder of the left tackle, and the inherent disruptive qualities and unrivaled spatial isolation are the reasons Left Tackles
are paid more than any position in Football. While the DT is also matched up against a single blocker, he is not awarded the space with which to work like the WDE. As such, he is the principle source of pass rush in this scheme. His size and physique must illustrate this principle goal: normally between 250 and 260 lbs, allowing him not to sacrifice speed and agility with which he can attack an environment (one blocker and nearly ~30 yards of space) that is unrivaled by any other frontal configuration. While Souther Cal has Everson Griffin, FSU counters with Everette Brown and now Markus White. For all of our struggles these past seasons in fielding satisfactory SDEs and NTs, the WDE position has not been a source of angst, at least personnel wise (schematically however, has caused some frustration, but that is the seed of another article for another day).

Final Thoughts

If you have made it this far, congratulations and thanks for reading. Defensive line play is one of the most exciting parts of football. Hopefully this article provides you with a basic frame work with which to watch the line play and to think about the recruiting process. It takes time to develop into an outstanding defensive lineman, but there are basic skills required. Acceleration, explosiveness and body type are key. When watching recruiting videos, watch for the way a kid comes off the ball, what does he do with his hands, how does he shed blocks, does he stay low, what is his first movement off the ball, does his head pop up or does he move across the line. I would argue that shuttle times and agility are more important for defensive lineman than 40 yard times. Strength is key and a kid has to have the right frame to develop his body to endure the punishment of playing on the line. There has been an evolution in the style of play at each position on the line. As CaStauch nicely stated, "Each position has a specific responsibility and players must be recruited that can fill these roles as best as they can. There cannot be any square peg in round hole recruiting here."

I look forward to hearing your thoughts about our defensive line and defensive line play in general. Clearly, a lot of this article is a gross simplification of defensive line technique, but a summary of some points that I find important.

And don't forget that Florida State has a history of developing some of the best defensive linemen in the country, many of whom go on to play in the NFL:

Photo from here.

Go NOLES!

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East