SB Nation - Caz Piurowski

Florida State Smashes Encouraging And Embarrassing ACC Records

FSUncensored — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:34:36 -0000

[Note: Mickey Andrews, Jimbo Fisher, and EJ Manuel will have their regularly scheduled press conferences at 1:30, per usual. You can watch it at this link, for free: http://all-access.cbssports.com/player.html?code=fsu&media=132352 ]

[Note: Please view this article in "WIDE MODE" Select this option on the menu to your right. ]

By now, you probably realize that Florida State's offense under the direction of reigning ACC offensive coordinator of the year Jimbo Fisher is very, very good. They put up 400 yards on only 50 plays against Maryland in their 29-26 win over the weekend. And any ACC fan knows that FSU's offense is the best in the conference. But not only is the Seminole offense the best in the ACC this season, but it is the best in the ACC since the conference expanded in 2005 and is the best offense the ACC has seen at least as far back as CFBStats.com keeps track. Florida State's 6.8 yards per play in conference is tremendous, and it is the conference's only offense to break the 6.5 yards-per-play barrier in more than a half decade

Click to enlarge.
It is even more impressive when you consider that Florida State had to play a quarter of their conference season with a backup freshman quarterback after losing Christian Ponder to injury for the year. It has also been without its leading receiver, Richard Goodman, for a quarter of the conference season. And it lost its starting tight end Caz Piurowski for the final half of the conference season. Down 3 starters and still the Florida State offense dominates,

Left with un-coached scrubs from the Jeff Bowden era (represented by the black line for death), Fisher has transformed the offense into an attack that can be compared to any attack in the country. Florida State starts 1 senior, 2 juniors, 7 sophomores, and 2 freshmen. There are no 5-star recruits in the starting lineup, and only 2 of the starting 11 were rated as 4-stars. Fisher is out-scheming opponents and has his young offense executing with the maturity of a much older offense. It had been more than a half decade since Florida State had the conference's best offense, but obliterating the previous conference record with this young group should give Florida State fans confidence that their head coach in waiting (HCIW) can really coach. And you can't help but wonder whether next year's group can reach the untouchable mark of 7 yards per snap of the ball. 6.8 yards per snap of the ball against conference competition. Amazing.

And its even more amazing when you remember that Florida State did not get the advantage of facing the ACC's worst defense since ACC expansion. Why not? Because quite ironically, that defense also belongs to the Seminoles.

That is one painful chart. FSU's defense is not only the worst since ACC expansion, it is 10% worse than any ACC defense since 2004 (we do not have records of conference, only statistics from before 2004). This unit is worse than the defenses Duke fielded in 2004 or 2005 or 2006. And this defense posted that embarrassing mark without the "help" of facing the conference's best offense. But it often allowed lesser opponents to post their best day, and in fact every offense the Seminoles defense went up against managed their best or second-best offensive performance of the season. And to think, Florida State fans believed the coaches when they denied that closing practices was due to defensive embarrassment. After this season, it seems those reports of 400-yard quarters during the Fall mini-scrimmages were accurate.

But much like the offense trended down until FSU could have no more, this defense has been in a slow tailspin since the early part of the decade. Each small step forward (2006 & 2008) was met with gigantic leaps back (2007 and this season). And those leaps corresponded with head coach Bobby Bowden's failure to replace competent coaches (like Kevin Steele and Jim Gladden) with reasonably competent coaches, instead allowing running jokes like Chuck Amato and Jody Allen to run this once proud unit into the ground.

This has to be some sort of record. Have you ever seen a team have the conference's best offense and worst defense? Perhaps. Have you ever seen the best offense and worst defense of more than a half-decade come from the same school, in the same season? Let us know.

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Florida State Seminoles Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:28 -0000

More photos » by Ethan Hyman - AP

Russell Wilson should have a field day against Florida State's defense. Can FSU outscore the 'Pack? (AP Photo/The News Observer, Ethan Hyman)

Browse more photos »

Time: Noon Eastern
TV: Raycom or Espn360.com
Weather
Line: FSU -10/ (Over/Under 64)

Last year, Florida State pulled the game out 26-17 on a Thursday night in Raleigh. The Pack's offense tore up FSU's defense for the better part of the 1st half. Then FSU's offense took over and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, taking the pack off their game. FSU stopped only 4 of State's 12 1st down rushes for 1 or fewer yards. The pack had 3 runs over 15 yards and a bunch of runs over 10 yards. Russel Wilson had a QB rating of 139. He completed 5 passes of 15+ yards. FSu had only 1 sack on 26 Pack passing plays. FSu's offense struggled early, being called for 5 holding penalties in the first half, and allowed sacks on 8% of passing plays. Eventually, FSU managed to get the run game going and pulled it out.

Inside, you'll find find the most comprehensive preview on the net.

NC State's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

NC State has roughly the 25th best offense in the country. Here's what they've done so far against 1a teams.

NC State Offensive Performance
Opponent	South Carolina	Pittsburgh	Wake Forest	Duke	Boston College
Opponent Defensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	17th	59th	46th	79th	3rd
Plays	56	80	69	53	82
Yards Per Play	2.4	6.6	5.5	6.4	4.8
Rushes	25	45	25	19	25
Yards/ Rush	3.7	4.9	4.4	8.6	3.8
Passing Plays	31	36	44	34	57
Yards/ Pass Play	1.3	8.9	6.1	5.1	5.2
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	22-5 (23%)-11	34-14 (41%)-5		26-12 (46%)-10	33-12 (36%)-14
Standard 2nd Downs	4-9 (44%)	7-13 (54%)		2-5 (40%)	11-12 (92%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-10 (20%)	7-17 (41%)		5-11 (45%)	4-17 (24%)
Standard 3rd Downs	5-5 (100%)	3-4 (75%)		4-6 (67%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 3rd Downs	0-10 (10%)	4-9 (44%)		0-5 (0%)	2-12 (17%)
Note	State lost their starting left tackle and never really recovered. Untimely penalties also killed them.	Had a 21 yard bad snap, so #'s are much better. Plays of 25, 30, 16, 17, 13, 19, 17, 29, 17, 11, 19, 16, 23, 33, 24, 26, 38, 21, 22, 21	No down-by-down pre-sorted data available.	Pr	j

Guys, this is scary. The worst defense State has played was rated 79th. FSU's is 104th. There are only 120 teams in division 1. I personally believe FSU's defense should be around #110 or 112, because 2 of their opponents ran a prevent offense while the game was still in doubt, which made their performance look better. Let's show this to you in graph form. Here are the defenses NC State has faced to date:

Of course, the lower the number, the better. NC State should have their best offensive day of the year.

But what about the offenses the putrid FSU defense has faced?

NC State is clearly a step above BC, UNC, and USF in terms of offense.

And here's what FSU did against those offenses

Opponent	Miami	@ BYU	USF	at BC	GTech	@ UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22nd	6th	94th	61st	2nd	91st
Plays	74	53	60	57	63	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5	4.9
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4	6.7
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8	30
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4	2.7

So NC State is decidedly the 4th best offense FSU will have faced. Against similar or better offenses, FSU has been absolutely torched.

So back to NCST. They haven't run but you know they will. Their run game appears to be pretty good but for whatever reason, they've abandoned the run game. No idea why they've been abandoning the run. Against Florida State, I'd say they should not abandon the run.

Their primary run game is the zone read.

NCST runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense. it is what multiple offenses do to FSU.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Unfortunately, defending this requires discipline. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and okay in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against State's 3 or 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

It really sucks to pin your defensive hopes on the chance that the opposing offense will play stupidly or get impatient and abandon the run.

I have noticed that NC State hits a lot of big plays. Their drives are often erratic, looking like: incomplete, scramble for 2, throw for 20, run for no gain, run for 40 (TD). FSU gives up a ridiculous amount of big plays due to their coaching (players out of position due to coaching).

FSU must contain Russell Wilson. The teams which have done the best job slowing this Wolfpack attack haven't even really rushed the kid at all. They just play patty-cake with the opposing linemen, bull-rush the middle, and then tackle Willson if he tries to leave the pocket. FSU's defensive coaches are negligent at best and won't have FSU's defense ready to do this. Instead, they will wildly rush Wilson, he will break contain, and then we will throw things at the TV.

NCST likes to throw to their tight end a lot. He's George Bryan. FSU doesn't cover the tight end worht a damn. That's a recipe for disaster, especially when you consider that...

NC State runs a ridiculous amount of trips sets. FSU fans know that the 'Noles absolutely have no clue against a set involving trips.3 Wideouts to 1 side, with a tight end on the other, a good runningback and an exceptionally mobile quarterback. This could be ugly.

NC State's offensive line blocks well. The offensive line boasts four seniors: Julian Williams at guard, Jerraill McCuller at tackle and Ted Larsen at center (Williams and Larsen are actually graduates). Those three players boast 69 starts between them. They have a decent Junior left tackle. These guys give Wilson a ton of time, though in fairness, teams rarely rush him. Their running back is 5'10" 225lb RsSr. Toney Baker. The guy is a load and will be trouble for FSU's tiny defense. Scat-back Jamelle Eugene provides a nice changeup. State has one good wideout, Owen Spencer, who is a burner. The rest of their wideouts aren't special. Wilson is an excellent runner and he also has a good arm. He is erratic at times, particularly when throwing to his left (tendency? ;) ), but his problems do not show up against man coverage like they do against zone coverage.

via media.scout.com

Prediction: I expect NC State to gain 7.7 yards per play, which would be their best effort on the year, by far. Specifically, that'd be about 20% greater than their best performance of the year. How many points will they score? Read on.

North Carolina State's Defense v. Florida State's Offense.

FSU's offense isn't above average. It isn't good. It is elite. And damn that feels good to say!

You know that FSU runs a pro-spread attack, which has been leaning more and more towards the spread due to the injury to excellent blocking tight end Caz Piurowski, the amazing play of QB Christian Ponder, the plethora of talented receivers, and backs who run well without a fullback. FSU's offense is currently the 4th best in the country. Here's their game by game breakdown:

Opponent	Miami	BYU	USF	BC	GT	UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	12	64	40	3	39	20
Plays	71	77	64	71	66	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.7	6.6	4.5	5.8	8.2	6.7
Rushes	28	49	22	28	28	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	4.5	6.4	2.8	2.9	6.9	2.3
Passing Plays	43	28	42	43	38	42
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	6.4	7.1	5.4	7.7	9.1	9.2

That's a very good offense. Every defense they've played has been in the top half (except BYU, which is 4 spots off). 5 are in the top 4, 3 in the top 20, and two in the top 12. Looking at FSU's raw numbers without considering their opponents is insane. Let's take a look at this in chart form:

What sticks out to me is just how good BC and Miami's defense's are. Carolina's is also very good and will look even better considering what they did to VTech last night. It also tells me that USF literally played the game of their life. This indicates that NC State's defense is the 2nd worst FSU will have faced, and I agree with the numbers here.

So let's look at how NC State's defense has performed:

Opponent	USCe	Pitt	Wake	Duke	BC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	58	22	40	26	65
Plays	64	46	77	80	64
Yards Per Play Allowed	4	6.5	5.1	6.4	7.6
Rushes	39	22	26	28	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.2	4.6	2.9	2.6	8.1
Passing Plays	25	24	51	52	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	5.2	8.3	6.8	8.4	6.9

That's not a particularly good defense. Let's take a look at the relative qualities of the offenses they have faced.

Yeah... FSU's offense is significantly better than anything NC State has seen so far. And FSU has already seen 5 defenses better than NC State.

They run a 4-3 most of the time, with a nickel, 3-4, or 3-3-5 on obvious passing downs. They play almost exclusively zone now, because their defense has seen some seriously bad injuries. And it is a soft zone. They do not pattern read. They will try to stay in their base defense against 3 wideouts.

On defense, they have 3 good players. Defensive End Willie Young is a mid-round NFL guy and he played well last year against Datko. I expect Datko to handle him this time. Alan-Michael Cash is a quality defensive tackle. Smallish but a good penetrator, he has a shot at the NFL. DeAndre Morgan is a quality corner. The rest of their defense is average to below average.

Remember our conversation with BackingThePack.com:

NCST has given up a lot of points on defense this year, has there been any talk of personnel or scheme changes for the upcoming game? Where do you think NCST matches up well against FSU's offense, if at all?

I don't expect any significant changes simply because the staff's options on that side of the ball are extremely limited. In the secondary, for example, we've got underclassmen backing up all four positions. There's not much to like about NC state's back seven, but at the same time, I trust that they are playing the best guys available. Which is truly frightening.

With the defense flaming out so spectacularly over the last few weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Archer has earned the attention of the Fire Somebody crowd. Tom O'Brien voiced his support earlier this week both for Archer and for our zone-heavy bend-but-don't-break scheme. If there are some wrinkles in that scheme on Saturday, I would think they'll come in the form of a little more man pressure. But that's just not who these guys are, so I'd expect the conservative approach most of the time. Hope I'm wrong about that. Everybody's killed this poorly-executed zone, and Ponder won't be an exception. Teams are doubling defensive end Willie Young and effectively neutralizing him, and none of the other guys are stepping up to make plays. Take Willie out of the equation, torch the secondary. Rinse, repeat.

So, no, there is nothing I like about how the Wolfpack defense matches up with FSU's offense. Perhaps they'll be able to limit FSU's unimpressive ground game, but I don't figure that to matter.

The Pack is extremely thin on defense. This year's team was hurt by a pair of offseason defections by kids who could have been useful players in the secondary. One of whom may have started at corner. Safety Javon Walker, who was very good two years ago, was lost to a knee injury and never got back on the field. Freshman corner Rashard Smith, one of the few pleasant surprises in the secondary, is done for the year. Linebacker Nate Irving survived a horrific car accident that cost him his season. And Linebacker Ray Michel (who played with me in High School) is also out. Michel was the defensive captain and called the defensive signals. Freshman C.J. Wilson replaces Rashard Smith as the starter at boundary corner. Justin Byers is the backup. Freshman Gary Grant is now the reserve at field corner. In the first seven games of 2009, NC State has used six different starting lineups in the defensive secondary. Injuries, abilities and experience have all been factors in the changes as the coaching staff tries to find the right combination. Cornerbacks DeAndre Morgan and Rashard Smith and safety Clem Johnson have all missed time due to injuries this season. Some players have started at different positions, including Koyal George at field and boundary corner, Johnson at field and boundary safety and Justin Byers at field safety and boundary corner. This week could mark the seventh new lineup in the backfield, as Smith went down with an injury and C.J. Wilson is slated to be back in the starting lineup (he started the season opener). State has no upperclassmen at linebacker.

I expect FSU to come out and run the ball if NC State plays as soft of a zone as I expect they will. Look for FSU to put up 8.3 yards per play, their best performance of the season.

Special Teams

Ah, the forgotten units.

Let's just say that FSU's special teams return and cover units have been great while NC State's have been terrible:

FSU has the 12th best return/ cover teams while State has the 117th best (or 3rd worst nationally). Greg Reid against a depleted cover team? Yes please.

NC State has been unlucky

A large percentage of State's turnovers have been returned for touchdowns or long returns. That is a bit unlucky. Keep that in mind. Their defense is not as bad as the 50 BC put up or the 49 duke put on them. Part of that was ridiculous turnovers.

Bye Week

NCST off of a bye week has been great under O'Brien.

Pace

This is big. Both teams could slow the pace and look to protect their defenses. The Over/Under for this game is the highest in recorded FSU history (64). But this game could be lower scoring than some are predicting if the teams try to hold the ball. That's not to say the offenses won't dominate- they will, but the total number of play could be reduced.

Prediction

lt's go time. I do think that the teams might run the ball a bit more than usual (wise to do). That'll result in a reduced number of plays. How about 65 per side. NC State gains 500 yards. FSU gains 540. A nice return play by Greg Reid will help the 'Noles to pull this one out, 38-34. That might be a shock to some of you, but this team is off a bye, FSU's defense is truly one of the worst in the entire country, and NC State's offense matches up perfectly. In the end, Ponder will abuse State's linebackers with passes over the middle, and pick apart the zone.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Browse more photos »

Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

The Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

FSUncensored — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:50:44 -0000

Gametime is 3:30, on ABC or ESPN. How do you know which network to watch? I have you covered:

The TomahawkNation forecast indicates an 80% chance of a lot of rain, with temps in the upper 60's to the lower 70's. Wet.

Be here for the Tomahawk Nation livegamethread!

The preview awaits you. It is here to consume the rest of your day.

This summer, I wrote a preview of BC's defense. Unless you've been reading us for a while, you probably don't understand just how good BC's defense was last season. So read it.

Here's the part I want to highlight, my prediction.

BC plays a read and react defense under defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani (now the head coach), which means they rarely blitz. Spaziani is highly thought of as a defensive coordinator and is very detail oriented. He has always done a nice job of adapting his scheme to his personnel. And this year he has quite the task on his hands with the loss of his 3 best players (by far). BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season. Let's see what they bring back...

Defensive Line & Linebackers (The "Front 7")

Gone are the big boys we discussed above. BC doesn't have the ability to replace them. The best of this group is tackle Damik Scafe (6-3, 293, Jr.). He played a bit last year and will probably play in the NFL eventually, though he's an obvious dropoff from last year. The other tackle is tackle Kaleb Ramsey (6-3, 256, Soph.) Young and obviously not very strong, he's a major liability and most teams will be able to run on him.

While BC has major questions at tackle, they are considerable better off at defensive end. Austin Giles (6-3, 283, Sr.) will battle Alex Albright 6'2" 250 could also get the nod. At the other end, Jim Ramella (6-4, 243, Sr.) is a very solid player. These guys are good, but not great, and won't come close to having the impact that the two interior guys had last year. In fact, they could regress as teams focus on them and not the interior guys.

At linebacker, the Eagles are a mess. They lost Herzlich and he obviously isn't replacable. They also lost Robert Francois (6'2" 255), and Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin (6'0" 252) will try to return from tearing his Achilles back in March, but even if he does come back, he'll be quite rusty. Trying to replace Herzlich is sophomore Dominick LeGrande 6'2" 200 (yes, 200). He's not ready, but has to play anyways because of Herzlich's absence. LeGrande played safety last year. Sophomore Will Thompson (6'1" 235) will replace McLaughlin if he can't go. He has impressed people but is not as good as the guy he will be asked to replace. At the other position will be one of two redshirt freshmen in 6'3" 217lb Nick Clancy or 6'3" 222lb Alexander Disanzo.

These guys are much smaller, much less experienced, much less talented, and much younger. There's a huge dropoff for BC's defensive line and linebackers.

So BC's front-7 did weigh 1902lbs. This year, they will weigh in at 1711bs. That's a huge dropoff of 191lbs! No team in the country that I could find had this significant a dropoff, and nobody else was even close. That's to say nothing of the talent they lost (regardless of size), which they can't replace this season.

So 1711lbs combined in their front 7. Why does this matter? FSU's run game destroys small front 7's.

So, I was close, but I need to make a few changes. Giles is starting at DT, not Ramsey. McLaughlin is back and starting, though I was not impressed with him against Wake. He pressed too much. FSU also needs to make sure to exploit him in coverage, because he is not agile to put it mildly. LeGrande is their best linebacker, but he missed the Wake game with a concussion and is expected to return.

In any case, 1743lbs is their new weight, which is still 159lbs lighter than they were last year. Frequent readers will remember that I thought FSU could run on BYU because of their diminutive front-7 (under 1750lbs), and run the Noles did. USF's front-7 was decently sized at 1818lbs , but very very talented, and paired with a poor performance from FSU's line, the run game wasn't there. I won't say that BC's front-7 is as bad as BYU's, but they are nowhere close to USF's, or Miami's for that matter.

But so far this year, they have done a nice job stopping the run. Most of that work was done with the extra safety, however, and that comes with some consequences. BC's defense is really well coached. Spaziani is a great defensive coach. BC's guys know they have to take chances, but that comes at a cost. BC plays a lot of zone defense, with 8 in the box, and that leaves them exposed to big plays when their guys jump routes. As I discuss a bit below, Wake did exploit them some. Clemson, however, could not because their wide receivers are wildly undisciplined, dropped balls, and most importantly, because their offensive line is pretty bad and BC didn't really need 8 in the box to stop them. Wake's run game has been terrible for almost half a decade, and they still loaded the box and allowed 1st down passing.

Here's some notes from the Wake game:

Dr. Saturday Wrote:

B.C. controlled the vast majority of this game, moving ahead 24-10 early in the fourth quarter.

The Deacons could have been there, though, if not for a few of the usual blown opportunities, specifically a fumble in Eagle territory and a missed field goal in the first half. With its back against the wall, Wake drove for two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to tie, using a grand total of three minutes to go 67 and 80 yards, respectively, to put the game into overtime on a Riley Skinner throw into the end zone with 11 seconds left; from there, following a B.C. field goal on its turn with the ball, the Deacons proceeded to move to the Eagle three-yard line with a chance to score for the win. Cue crushing fumble on first-and-goal, an Eagle recovery and a hard ending to one of the best comeback efforts of the day.

The desperately-needed B.C. win takes a lot of sting out of the Eagles' late defensive collapse, which couldn't get a stop at the end of regulation (and nearly failed in overtime, too) and gave up five passes longer than 20 yards, most in the second half.

But how much of those last two drives were because of BC's Prevent Defense as BC fans contend? What about the turnovers? Was Wake's run game all one play?

Deacons Make Good 1st Down Choices

Wake had less than ideal success with 1st down running, having success only only 4 of 14 1st down runs (defined as 50% of necessary yardage). 4 of them went for a "stuff" (less than 10% of necessary remaining yardage). The other 5 were somewhere between 11 and 49% of necessary yardage.

But part of that had to do with BC's decision to take away the run by using an extra defender down in the box (typically a very aggressive safety). So Wake countered by throwing on 1st down (this is similar to what Miami did to the Noles). Wake threw on 17 1st downs. Only three of those passes were incomplete. Of the 14 that were complete, 11 were successful, and of those 11, 8 went for 1st downs. That's 9.4 yards per pass, 11.4 per completion. But on the issue of the prevent defense, there is some merit to that. 6 of the 11 successful 1st down pass plays were on the last two drives, and BC was definitely playing off coverage. They also didn't play it that well, as some of the completions were rather short.

It is worth noting that two of the turnovers for Wake wasn't really turnovers at all. One was simply a fumble on 4th and 25. Another was an interception on 4th and 6 from midfield, intercepted at the goal line. Both plays were better or similar to the what would have happened if the pass just fell incomplete or the runner was simply tackled.

Situation	Plays	Yards	Yards/Play	Points/ Play
1st 10 Drives	45	328	7.3	0.222
Last 2 Drives ("Prevent")	16	147	9.2	0.875
Overtime	5	17	3.4	0 (Obvious)

Okay, so there was something to the prevent argument.

Long Distance Down Struggles Signal Lack of Pass Rush

Wake faced 21 2nd or 3rd down and long situations. They passed on 13 of those. These are known as high leverage situations for the defense. They were successful on 5 of those. 5 of 13 is very good for an offense in long downs, particularly when you consider what some of those plays were. On 3rd and long, Wake hit passes of 58, 26, and 38 yards. They got no pass rush, and some of the linebackers and safeties really looked awkward in coverage. When BC blitzed, they did not get to Skinner (no sacks and very little pressure).

Name	Rush	Yards	Avg
QB Rushing	7	3	0.4
WR Rushing	6	-7	-1.2
RB Running (w/o 76 yard run)	17	70	4.1
RB 76 Yard Rush	1	76	76

The point of this chart, is to show that Wake Forest ran almost 10% of their plays as runs to the wideouts, with poor results. The run game, for most of the day, wasn't special, and definitely inflated by the one long run (which of course, does count, so we can't dismiss it. When a defense loads the box, it increases the chance they stop the run, but also increases the chance of allowing a big run, because of the angles.

So back to their secondary. Here's what I wrote before.

Secondary

Remember all those interceptions? Kiss them goodbye. BC's secondary was allowed to play pass first, second, and last. Now? They'll have to use one of the secondary members (a safety) in run support. The burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that put opposing offenses in tough situations? I think it's the latter. None of the BC secondary guys are likely all-conference candidates or NFL players (none are projected to go in the 2010 or 2011 draft). Let's have a look:

At Safety, BC should be okay with Free Safety Wes Davis and Strong Safety Marcellus Bowman. Davis is a 6'2" 215 Junior who produced 60 tackles, 3 tfl, 2 INT, 6 pass breakups last year. He's a decent player in coverage and in run suppot, but as with most of these guys, I expect him to get exposed because he now has to play run and pass (can't play 25 yards off the ball). Davis will be hung out to dry all by himself because Bowman, a 6'2" 217lb Senior will be called upon to help stop the run. Again, the loss of the great front-7 guys (both expected and unexpected) is going to put tremendous pressure on this secondary.

At corner, BC has similar problems. They return the experienced Roderick Rollins, a 6-0, 188-pound senior. Rollins has had the benefit of a lot of help from his safeties in his career and that help won't be there this year. He's decently physical, but can he turn and run after the initial bump coverage? We shall see. At the other corner spot is rising sophomore Donnie Fletcher (6'1" 188lbs). Fletcher is another big corner. They also have the experienced Deleon Gause 5'11" 174lb, a Junior who has good physical skills, but is inconsistent.

BC's secondary plays extremely physical, which is great when they have the help of safeties who aren't pre-occupied with stopping the run. But without safety help, if the corners can't run and run, they will be burned for long TD's. Wes Davis will have to prove that he can cover the deep middle instead of a deep half (now that Bowman will play down in the box).t

I am pretty impressed with Rollins, he's a quality corner. **Update** Rollins is apparently doubtful with some sort of leg injury. Fletcher, however, has been burnt on some double moves. Despite their decent showing so far, I stand by my summer evaluation. This secondary was a product of a really good front-7, which is just no longer there. It's very important for FSU to stay in manageable down and distance. If they can, it will be like the BYU game, putting BC in tough situations and forcing their hand. If the Noles cannot, it will be much tougher for them. Spaziani is the master of the 3-5-3 defense (not 3-3-5, but 3-5-3). Here's an excerpt, but check out Dr. B's great article on the subject (lots of video as well). That should kill an hour of work for you, at least.

The basic package appears as a variation on the 33 Stackset with an extra OLB/Nickelback playing, with the SS being the 5th guy in the underneath zone. BC's base is still a 4-3. WILL and SS take the flats underneath, with the two interior LBs playing hook/curl zone and the SAM taking a slot/TE (curl) zone up the seam (note that it could also appear as a shifted 4-3, with the Sam playing in a 3pt stance). The two CBs and the FS are playing the usual 3-deep zone coverage. In the figure above, W, S, and B are LB's (Will/Sam/Bandit), and the SS's are called "Dogs" on the callside, "Rover" on the weakside. One of them will most likely be a OLB or backup Safety/Nickel. Its just terminology.

Read the explanation (Long)

As that article indicates, hitting the 4-verticals play will be key. Wake did it to them. We saw FSU use this against Jax State (Caz Piurowski), and once against BYU.

BC's defense was the ACC's best and easily top 5 nationally. They beat FSU up last year. FSU had the youngest offensive line in the country and were destroyed by an ultra-talented and experienced set of defensive linemen and linebackers. I have full confidence that Frank Spaziani will come up with good game plan after good game plan, but his ability to get creative will be severely hampered because his defense will face far fewer obvious passing situations. He's also never been a blitz guy, and he'll definitely need to blitz FSU to get pressure, because FSU's offensive line can handle BC's 3 or 4 man rush. When BC blitzes, can their secondary handle the single coverage responsibilities against FSU's wideouts? Though they will run a lot of cover-3, I do expect to see some man at times, particularly when blitzing. I expect FSU to run the ball on BC, even without a 100% Christian Ponder, force BC to make adjustments that they really don't want to do, and then FSU will exploit them down the field. This game could look very different from a big plays standpoint. BYU was content to sit back, but BC will not. If FSU starts to run on them, or picks them apart underneath, Spaziani will blitz. Their blitz wasn't good against Wake Forest, but I suspect it will be better Saturday, if needed.

For Florida State, a lot of this game comes down to not beating themselves. They have to get DT Scafe blocked. Other than that, I would not be worried about BC's defensive players more so than I would about FSU beating themselves. FSU needs to throw when BC has predictable run personnel in the game, be it via play-action or a regular dropback. McGlaughlin is 30lbs bigger than any other linebacker BC has, and FSU needs to make BC pay for having him on the field, specifically because he isn't particularly mobile at this point. And if they remove him, run the ball. Jermaine Thomas is back this week as the starting running back, which should be good. I could See Easterling having a big day from the slot.

Of course, the major X-Factor is the rain, and there will be lots and lots of cold rain. I am not sure what that means for a team like FSU, and this game is played on turf. So far this year I predicted a very high scoring Miami game, a high scoring Win at BYU, and had a very uneasy feeling about the USF game, predicting FSU to win by less than a touchdown when everyone else saw a blowout. I don't have the same grasp on this game. I'll say FSU runs for 180 yards on 36 carries, and throws for 240 yards on 30 pass plays (28 throws, 2 sacks). It'll be good for 28 points in some nasty conditions.

I watched the Clemson and Wake Forest games in their entirety. I don't feel much can be learned from the Clemson game in terms of defending BC. Clemson has one of the top 3 defenses in the country. I can think of at least 35 teams I would trade defenses with. Clemson was able to do things to the Eagle's offense that FSU simply cannot do, because literally, Clemson has a definitively better player at 9 of the 11 defensive positions. Also, Clemson is much better coached. But we can still break down BC's Offense, which again, will probably look like what we saw against Wake and not Clemson.

In the off-season, I wrote this on BC's Offense. There have been some changes, so I'll quickly run through them.

The Eagles lost up and coming star coach Jeff Jagodzinski, who was fired after flirting with the NFL. That's a smart move for Boston College, because Jags is a very hot commodity and would have left soon anyways. He got a lot out of his players and his team outperformed the expectations of everyone. The Eagles also lost highly respected Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach, Steve Logan. Both are not with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Replacing Jagodzinski is longtime defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. More on him later. Replacing Logan is Gary Tranquil, who was born in 1940. At one time, he was a decent offensive coach, but he's been out of the college game for 4 years. Where Logan was excellent and really took advantage of his player's talents and opposing defenses, Tranquil is not highly thought of. He runs a pro-style offense, does not spread teams out, and does not utilize his quarterback in the run game at all. His schemes are simple and from a purely schematic standpoint, Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews should own him. They are also abandoning their zone blocking scheme. Tranquil's offense is literally what Mickey Andrew's defense is designed to stop.

Unfortunately, there have been some changes here. I still don't think Tranquil is any good, but after their anemic showing against Clemson, they scrapped a lot of the new stuff and went back to the zone scheme that was successful for them last season. BC is running a lot of two-tight end sets, which scares me. I will say I was right in that they are trying to be more of a power run team. In an ideal world, they man-block a power run game. The next best thing for FSU would be power running w/ no QB threat from a zone scheme. The worst possible scenario would be spread run with a mobile QB. So it's not all bad, but it's definitely not ideal.

Boston College has a great offensive line. We talk a lot about how good FSU's O-Line can be, but I am here to tell you that BC's line is every bit as good. This is one of the best offensive lines in the country. They return all 5 starters. This is an excellent group. People make a big deal about his "big" these guys are, but they really aren't huge.

LT Anthony Castonzo (6-7, 287, Jr.)
RT Rich Lapham (6-8, 322, Jr.)
LG Thomas Claiborne (6-3, 323, Jr.)
RG Emmett Cleary (6-7, 270, R-Fr.)
C Matt Tennant (6-4, 294, Sr.)

Castonzo is a likely NFL 1st day pick (2nd rounder, maybe 1st, probably 2011 draft). He is an excellent pass blocker and is pretty quick. FSU's defensive end will have a tough time doing much against him. Lapham is obviously huge at right tackle. He is a very good run blocker but has bad feet and is a liability in pass protection. Not an NFL player. At Left Guard, Claiborne is an ex-defensive tackle who was excellent last year. He was 3rd team ALL-ACC and should be even better this year. Claiborne is an NFL player provided he keeps his weight in check. At Left Guard, Cleary is the newcomer to the group. He could be good eventually and was a tackle coming out of high school, but he's quite raw and will need to work on his back and knee bend to be any good. At Center, Tennant should be first team ACC. He's better than FSU's Ryan McMahon, though obviously less known. Don't get mad, FSU fans, I'm just giving it to you straight. BC has at least three NFL linemen who are probably 1st day (top 4 round) selections on their line. They return 4 starters and the line has 4 upperclassmen. This is an excellent offensive line and will make BC's skill position players look much better than they are. This isn't the most heralded unit in the country, but unless you judge offensive lines on things other than performance, talent, or experience, they should be considered one of the better groups. FSU will have one heckuva time against this unit.

Not much change here. Important to note that they were terrible against an all-time great Clemson defensive line, which was partially due to the Tiger's dominance, and partially due to the confusion. How disciplined to the scheme will BC stay? Will Tranquil try to throw some of his new stuff in there and risk confusing his own group? BC has a huge advantage here. They should be conservative and pound the rock until FSU clearly says "we're devoting extra people against the run, throw on us." FSU's DLine is now as bad as I thought they would be- they are worse.

At Quarterback, BC has Dave Shinskie, who is a 25 year-old Pocket passer and he also played minor league baseball. He hasn't played football in 6 years. More on him here. He's a good passer, because he was a decent prospect coming out of high school. He's not a run threat, however, and that's really what the 'Noles care about. They also have a kid named Tuggle, son of former NFL All-Pro Jessie Tuggle. He's an athletic freak but a really erratic passer.

If I were BC, I'd use Tuggle in the shotgun all day and run zone read down FSU's throat 55 times for about 350 yards. I think we'll see some Wildcat with him, but not as the base package, and that's a good thing.

The Eagles look good at running back. Montel Harris is their big back at 5' 10" 200. He had one heckuva game last year against the 'Noles as a freshman. He's not a home run threat, and this author thinks he's more of a product of BC's offensive line, but he does what is asked of him and grinds out tough yards. Last year he gained 900 yards on 179 carries (5 YPC), and caught 20 balls for 160 yards. The other back is Josh Haden, a scatback who gained 479 yards on 120 carries (4 YPC). He's 5'8" 182lbs, but should catch a few more balls this year. Blocking for these two is Senior James McClusky. He's 6'2" 250lbs and a mauler. He did hurt his Achilles in spring, however, and the Eagles desperately need him to be healthy this year as they utilize a 2-back attack. I fully expect Harris to get 200 carries this year, and also expect his average to drop a bit as other teams key on him more.

McCluskey is doubtful with an Achilles injury. So BC is running more two tight end sets, as I mentioned. Haden is still inconsistent, but he is very skilled and could break a long run. So about those wideouts and tight ends...

The Eagles do return WR Rich Gunnell, who was basically Robinson's equal in production, though far less explosive. Florida State's Patrick Robinson can easily handle him one on one without help (Robinson is CBS' #1 Draft Eligible Corner), and he'll be asked to as the 'Noles focus on stopping the run. They also have Justin Jarvis, who is 6'5" and was decently productive this year. Can Jarvis handle the increased role? That remains to be seen, but the Eagles are counting on him. The remaining guys are relatively unheralded wild cards. Junior Ifeanyi Momah is 6'6" 230 and caught 11 for 149 and 3TD's last season. He's their Greg Carr, except bulkier and about as fast as your average tight end. RsFr Clyde Lee had a decent spring I am told and could play some in the slot (though I suspect BC will not use many 3-wide sets). Finally, can Senior Clarence Megwa (6'1" 190) come back from a thought to be career-ending leg injury? If he can, BC will need him, because he started for them last year. Update: Megwa's leg is apparently healed, he's dealing with a hand injury and they expect him to be ready for the FSU game.

At tight end, 6'3" 250lb Soph Lars Anderson has a chance to be a very good pass catcher. Last year he snagged 9 balls for 85 yards. They also have Jordan McMichael, who was a very nice recruit in 2006 (I think), but has done nothing to date to impress anyone.

I don't think any of the draft eligible guys will get drafted. They really don't seem all that special. They aren't bad, but rather are just good college players.

Some notes. First, Gunnell has struggled, which almost certainly means he will have a big day against FSU, but Robinson should lock him down easily. Momah is definitely out. BC is using a tight end by the name of Chris Pantale, and he's been good for them. The McMichael kid is very good. Again, two tight end sets.

For FSU, most of the defensive line will play, but that is not to say they are healthy. Freshman JaJuan Harley, back from injury problems, will start at Rover over much maligned Senior Korey Mangum. Think of it as a mercy killing. Harley is the best athlete on the team and maybe in the ACC, but expect maddening inconsistency, busts, and also some highlight plays from the true freshman making his first ever start.

I expect BC to stay in two-tight end sets, with 1 back and two wideouts. They should be able to run the ball on the Noles, particularly with counters and traps, in addition to their zone run game, which is already good. I'm not re-inventing the wheel here. This is the same stuff you've seen since Chuck Amato replaced Kevin Steele as FSU's linebacker coach. Oh, they have a little speed-option they run as well. BC runs a ton of play-action passes, and I expect them to do well with those to their two impressive tight ends because FSU's players just aren't taught well on the defensive side. The defensive acuity just hasn't been instilled in these guys. It's not their fault. I'll take BC to have 200 yards rushing and 180 throwing, and 24 points.

Noles 28, BC 24.

Note: the heavy, heavy rain here is keeping my score prediction down. If it were higher, I'd predict a higher number.

The Final Score: Florida State Seminoles 41 - USF Bulls 24

FrankDNole — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:40:24 -0000

Welcome back to this week's edition of "The Final Score." This is the weekly prediction column that our readers clamor for all week, where we the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation will match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against our readers psychic abilities, or better yet "guesses" for Saturday's FSU expected CASTRATION of the USF Bulls.

Once again many thanks to GonzoNole for his typically brilliant contribution. Next time you see a GonzoNole comment, please thank him for his contributions to this site.

Before going any further, I would like to congratulate loyal Tomahawk Nation reader hopnole23, who last week won the coveted shiny prize for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in FSU's complete emasculation of the BYU Cougars.

Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I thought I would share a few fun facts and tidbits about our Seminole's, now that we are a quarter of the way through the 2009 season. Here are some interesting facts that you may or may not be aware of, and a few notes about this weeks game, which by the way has been officially dubbed and designated by Governor Charlie Crist as the State of Florida's 1st Annual Dyslexia Bowl (FSU vs USF).

Upon returning home after snapping BYU's 18 game home winning streak, our Noles' are back in the national polls and ranked 18th after a two-week absence. This upcoming game will be the first meeting between these two schools, bringing to eight the total number of in-state teams our Noles have faced in our 63-year history. Additionally at this game, we will recognize our 1999 National Championship Team as a part of this season-long, 10-year anniversary celebration of the lone unbeaten team, and the first ever Wire to Wire #1 ranked National Champions.

Though FSU and USF are meeting for the first time, there is a lot of familiarity between the two rosters. A total of 40 players were high school teammates. That’s one player more than the high school ties between the Miami and FSU rosters in this season’s opener. Jacksonville First Coast and Belle Glade Glades Central top the list of connections for this game, with four players each.

HERE ARE SOME OTHER INTERESTING FACTS YOU PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW, BUT ARE WORTH REPEATING.

-Last week against BYU, our quarterbacks, Christian Ponder (21 of 26/80.8 percent) and EJ Manuel (1 of 2/.500 percent) completed 22 of 28 passes for a combined single-game school record 78.6 team completion percentage. The previous record was 78.3 percent (36 of 46) set by Danny Kanell and Thad Busby on September 16, 1995 in a 77-17 victory vs. North Carolina State.

-The 54 points scored against BYU were the most scored by the Noles’ during the 17-game starting career of Ponder against an FBS team, and the most since the Noles’ defeated Western Carolina, 69-0 last year in his first career start.

-FSU scored points in each of the four quarters last week. It marked only the seventh time in the last two seasons that the Seminoles have scored points in each quarter during a game.

-The Noles scored 23 points in the second quarter and that was the most points scored in a single quarter since FSU scored 27 in the third quarter of its victory over Western Carolina to open the 2008 season;

-Ponder was a perfect six of six passing for 75 yards and three touchdowns on third down conversions. Ponder has completed 65.5 percent of this third down passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns in the first three games of the season. Additionally, he has rushed for 62 yards on eight carries and has converted six of nine third down opportunities while carrying the ball in the first three games of the season. Ponder's total 3rd down conversions rate is 19/29, and against BYU the Noles converted 12 of 15 total 3rd down opportunities

-Ponder has completed 61.4 percent of his passes in his last eight starts as compared to his completion percentage of 54.4 percent in the first eight starts of his career. He has completed 63.0 percent of his passes in his last four games as compare to his completion percentage of 50.6 in the first four starts of his career. Finally, he has attempted 33.3 passes per game in his last four starts as compared to 19.8 pass attempts per game in the first four starts of his career.

Our little boy has come a long way, has grown up, and is now a man.

-During the summer, Jimbo promised us more tight end involvement and he has kept his word. Our quarterbacks completed seven passes to three different tight ends last week. Ponder completed five passes for 38 yards and one touchdown to Caz Piurowski and one pass for six yards for Beau Reliford. EJ Manuel completed the first pass of his career to sophomore Ja’Baris Little who was lined up at the tight end position on the play, and it was the first time since Nov. 10, 1990 against Cincinnati that three Seminole tight ends (Reggie Johnson, Warren Hart and Dave Roberts) caught a pass in the same game. Caz has caught 10 passes for 149 yards (both career season-best), five of those catches have moved the chains, and seven have come on touchdown drives. Caz has 2 TD receptions so far and his 53-yard reception against Jax St is the longest of the season for any FSU player, and the longest by a Nole tight end since Lonnie Johnson (78 yds. vs. Clemson, 1993).

-Ty Jones got his first career 100-yard rushing game (108 yards on 12 carries and one touchdown) and it marked the first time since our victory over Miami in 2008 that Florida State had rushed for more than 300 yards in a single game (310). It also marked the first time since that Miami game that we have outrushed our opponent by more than 200 yards in a single game (310-51/+259). In addition, it was only the 6th time since the beginning of the 2000 season that FSU has rushed for 300 yards or more. We are undefeated in each of those six games.

-Our Noles held the ball for 39:51 of the 60 minutes (65.8 percent of the game) and this overwhelming time of possession advantage led to the Cougars running only 53 offensive plays. It was the fewest offensive plays allowed by the Noles’ defense since limiting Duke to 50 in a 25-6 win on Oct. 27, 2007.

-The Noles were a perfect eight of eight on scoring chances from inside the red zone against BYU (seven touchdowns and one FG) and we have converted 10 consecutive red zone opportunities.

-In a total of 77 offensive plays against BYU, the Noles only had two negative yardage plays (one rushing and one receiving). Ironically, the negative rushing play came by a receiver on a rushing attempt (Bert Reed – minus one yard on a first quarter) and the negative passing play came by a running back on a pass reception (Ty Jones– minus one yard on a third quarter pass).

-Ponder completed 21 of 26 passes and was interception-free for the fourth time in his last six starts. He has not been intercepted in eight of his 16 career starts. The Seminoles are undefeated (8-0) when Ponder completes a game without throwing an interception.

-The Noles are averaging only 6.6 penalties in the first 3 games and if they can maintain, we are on pace to be the least penalized Florida State team since 1995.

-Dustin Hopkins either kicked seven of his nine kickoffs out of the end zone, or where downed in the end zone, and only 2 kickoffs were returned for a total of 23 yards.

-Through the first three games, 11 true freshmen have seen action.

Enough of the past, it's time to get on with the USF predictions, after you hit the jump.

OK, let's get it on.

BEFORE HEADING BACK TO TAMPA AFTER THE SEMINOLES CASTRATION OF THE USF BULLS, THIS DEPRESSED USF FAN BIDS FAREWELL TO WHAT IS LEFT OF HIS BULLS TEAM.

AND FOR THOSE OF YOU FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO ATTEND THE GAME, PLEASE HAVE A BALL.

This week it is a unanimous decision, and all of us authors are now kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, and GOOD GUYS.

Last week the BAD GUYS learned their lesson, were ridiculed, were humiliated, and the final slap to their faces occurred when ESPN called each one and offered all of them jobs predicting scores for the ESPN College Gameday program. They have since repented, and since they seem sincere we have allowed them to continue on as part of the staff here at TN, but they have been advised that they are on notice.

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - USF 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 42 - USF 13

-oline0175= FSU 38 -USF 24

-MattDNole= FSU 37 - USF 21

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - USF 24

-Nattylite= FSU 42 - USF 31

-FSUSOM= FSU 52 - USF 31
-Fsued= FSU 30 - USF 17

-TrueCubbie= FSU 43 - USF 28

-pbysh= FSU 34 - USF 21

-SWFLNole= FSU 45 - USF 28

-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - USF 24

And finally,

FSUn= TBA in the upcoming Game Preview.

Now we are eager to learn what the most knowledgeable Nole fans on any of the FSU boards expect the final score to be for this game. Once again, the prize will be something shiny which will be given for the closest prediction (not spread) to the final score. At the end of the season, the reader (or author) who has won the most Shiny Awards will receive the grand prize, a much larger and shinier prize.

Finally, in our attempt to broaden our readers horizons, I leave with a short video clip which will come in very handy for the Nole fans following the game.

STOP RIGHT THERE! I GOTTA KNOW RIGHT NOW, BEFORE WE GO ANY FURTHER. WHAT'S IT GONNA BE BOY?

Florida State's Undercover Youth Movement

FSUncensored — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:23:00 -0000

When Jimbo Fisher arrived at Florida State in 2007 to be Florida State's offensive coordinator and head coach in waiting, he noted that FSU had few, if any, players who could play at Fisher's old school, LSU. It wasn't that Florida State hadn't been bringing in quality talent. Their 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes were decently rated, but the coaches Fisher would replace were beyond lazy in their player evaluations and the practical effect was that FSU continually managed to pick the overrated of the most highly rated, or the attitude problem children that other programs shied away from. So Fisher and his newly hired offensive assistants hit the recruiting trail. Hard. Their work ethic put pressure on some of the coaches who were still around from the pre-Fisher days. They didn't want to get shown up, so they worked a bit harder. Florida State reeled in a top 10 class. Last season after the Noles had the top offense in the ACC, the ACC's offensive coordinator of the year reeled in another top 10 class. The key though, was to make sure those players qualified (avoiding the bad apples), and to get players that fit a specific vision instead of just grabbing highly ranked players without regard to fit.

The plan seems to be working, but you wouldn't know it from watching television. While everyone in the media seems to want to talk about the youth movement happening at Miami, Florida State has just as many starters from their rebuilding classes of 2008 and 2009. The Canes have 8 starters who are either freshmen or sophomores, and the Noles have 8 as well. Both teams have a number of freshmen or sophomores who contribute as well. And not just when the outcome of the game is no longer in doubt. The Noles are counting on young players on offense, defense, and special teams to make big plays in clutch moments.

The most obvious of these on defense is Sophomore linebacker Nigel Bradham (shown above). A physical freak, Bradham was the #1 rated outside linebacker in the 2008 recruiting class. After shining on special teams as a freshman, Bradham has exploded this year. Outside of Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson, Bradham is the Seminole's best defensive player. Not only is he FSU's biggest and strongest linebacker, but Bradham has been exceptional in coverage as well. Against Miami Bradham was the Nole's most consistent run stopper, but he also covered the Cane's kick returner and running back Greg Cooper, staying with him step for step on many plays. In Florida State's 54-28 obliteration of #7 ranked BYU, Bradham did a great job of covering the underneath pick routes BYU was running. Despite the ref's reluctance to call some of BYU's more blatant pick routes, Bradham was able to re-route his man several times, forcing him just slightly off his intended path. Nigel had the Nole's only QB hurry against BYU, and at the end of the game he also tallied an interception to erase any doubts of of a comeback in even the most hopeful of Cougar fans.

While Bradham was impressive, the Nole's defense is getting big plays from it's smallest player. 5'9" 165lb freshman cornerback Greg Reid is fast becoming a household name, not only for Seminoles fans, but for college football fans across the country. Against Miami, Reid came on a corner blitz and hit Miami quarterback Jacory Harris as he threw, forcing the ball to pop up into the air and into the arms of Junior Markus White (a JUCO transfer from the 2008 class), who returned it for a touchdown. He also stepped in front of another Harris pass for an interception along the sideline in the second quarter. Reid's electric kickoff returns made Miami change their kickoff strategy. When the Canes began kicking the ball short, Reid took it upon himself to change spots with another player right before the kickoff. Without realizing, Miami kicked short and right into the arms of the freshman they were trying to avoid and Reid had another electric return. But it was Reid's play against BYU that launched him into the national spotlight. Late in the second quarter, BYU began to find their tight ends. Concerned about this, to open the 3rd quarter FSU's coaches put the 5'9" 165lb Reid on the 6'6" 260lb Andrew George, figuring that he was quick enough to pester and stick with him underneath. They would deal witht he size disadvantage if BYU adjusted. On BYU's opening drive of the 2nd half, the Cougars opened up by running the ball at the Nole's undersized front. They targed Pitta and the pass was incomplete as FSU was flagged for pass interference. Then Reid took George who had split out in the slot.. On 2nd and 11, it happened:

Reid jammed the much larger Groege, who then threw a forearm to try to get away. Reid grabbed to stay with the tight end and just undercut the route. There was offensive pass interference on the push and defensive pass interference on the pull and the refs let them play. A few seconds later the Noles were up 37-14 and the Cougars quit. FSU forced 5 turnovers against BYU. 4 by underclassmen, and 3 of those were from freshmen.

But it's not just the Nole's youth on defense that has people excited.

The Noles start 5 sophomores on offense. In fact, the Seminole offense is younger than the defense. There are only two senior starters touching the ball in Tallahassee. FSU had the best offense in the ACC last year, and this year they are even better. Against two ranked opponents (Miami and BYU), the Noiles are averaging over 450 yards and 44 points per game. The Nole's dismantling of BYU was one of the best in Seminole history. 2 Seniors, 5 Juniors, and 5 Sophomore starters.

It starts up front. Last season, the FSU offensive line was the youngest in the country, starting 3 true freshmen and two sophomores. Fisher had to gameplan around them, and that he still had the top offense in the ACC with the youngest offensive line in the country may be Fisher's finest coaching job (including the National Championship with LSU). This year, the FSU offensive line is the strength of the team. They are talented and cohesive. In their two games against 1A competition, they have allowed Ponder to be sacked only twice in sixty seven pass plays. That's a sack rate of less than 3% and rates as one of the best in the country. FSU rushed for more than 100 yards against Miami and the Seminoles considered that a "down" game. But Miami was loading up against the run and FSU carved them up with the pass. Against BYU, the cougars were scared to put too many players up against the run, for fear of FSU's athletes beating their defensive backs, and the Seminole offensive line had a field day. They did not allow a tackle for loss. They did not allow a sack. The Noles rushed for 313 yards. It was a truly dominant effort. How dominant? BYU's two leading tacklers were their cornerbacks. FSU's young offensive line would not allow the Cougar linebacker to make tackles. The announcers referred to them as "Velcro", because their blocks just stuck.

It's not just the young big uglies who are carrying the team, however. FSU's youngsters are contributing at the skill positions as well. Florida State scored 7 touchdowns Saturday. 5 came from underclassmen (2 from sophomores and 3 from freshmen). Sophomore running back Carlton Ty Jones leads the team in rushing. Jones consistently hits the right hole and does it with power. Sophomore Jermaine Thomas, and freshmen Lonnie Pryor and Chris Thompson also get in on the act. Against BYU, they accounted for 186 yards on 26 rushes. The Noles receiving corps is also littered with underclassmen. Sophomores Jarmon Fortson, Bert Reid, and Taiwan Easterling are all leaned on heavily. Fortson is the most talented of the group at 6'3" 228' with good speed and amazing athleticism. Fortson has 11 grabs for 148 yards this season. Of the Nole's 271 yards passing per game, 130 go to underclassmen.

But the most impressive play of the day in my eyes probably went unnoticed by most. Leading 20-14 and having just given up a touchdown drive to BYU, FSU faced 3rd and goal at the Cougar 5. The Noles got in the shotgun, with 3 wide receivers, a tight end, and a running back. That back was true freshman Lonnie Pryor, who would score two touchdowns on the day. When I saw the formation, I figured that FSU was running a draw. Surely they would ask a true freshman running back to pick up the blitz from a 3-4 defense. Right? BYU brought the blitz, an overload to Pryor's side. The play was a pass. If FSU was to score, Pryor would need to block the blitzing outside linebacker, who outweighed him by 30lbs. The blitzer never got within three yards of quarterback Christian Ponder, as Pryor set, drove his hips, and stoned the 'backer, then drove him past the pocket. Ponder made his reads and then, with excellent protection, found tight end Caz Piurowski for the 27-14 lead, right before half. Fisher trusted a freshman running back to pick up arguably the most important block of the game. Credit FSU running backs coach Dexter Carter for schooling Pryor and having him ready to play. When you play freshmen in important roles and give them the skills to succeed, their confidence skyrockets.

Florida State has just 12 scholarship seniors (15 if you count walk-ons who earned their scholarship at the completion of fall camp). There are only 11 scholarship Juniors. Where FSU failed to bring in the right players in 2006 and 2007, those who stuck around are a nice compliment to the excellence that is Fisher's first two recruiting classes (2008 and 2009). The Noles have 27 sophomores and 25 sophomores. 70% of the scholarship players are underclassmen.

The Noles will return 16 starters in 2009, and lose few important reserves. While they may encounter some growing pains this year, that experience could help the Noles reach special heights next season.

Florida State Run Game Notes after Jax State

FSUncensored — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:13:56 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

3 months ago: Florida State running back Chris Thompson, left, has his face mask grabbed by Jacksonville State linebacker Rodney Garrott on a fourth-quarter run during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida State won 19-9. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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I don't think you can take much away from a performance like the one the 'Noles had Saturday evening, for all the reasons we've detailed all week (scroll down to see our discussion of no motivation, rest, preparation, etc). But a lot of people asked about the running game, so I watched all of FSU's run plays.

There will be no clips or photos this week. You can watch the video right here. The running plays are all in order, so it's easier for you to follow along. This way also shows progression (as opposed to grouping them by play type.) I have some conclusions at the end.

1-10 Outside Zone Right , Loss of 2. The Play is Outside Zone, but Caz Piurowski apparently forgot as to which side FSU was running, and blocked the wrong guy. His assigned guy made the tackle.

1-10 Inside Zone Right, Two Tight Ends Even, Twins WR right. Tye Jones runs this for 18. He should have had only 4 but broke a really poor tackle. Ponder should have checked to a pass here against the 8.5 man front. Beau Reliford is a walking holding penalty. No effort into blocking.

1-10 Outside Zone to Chris Thompson from Gun w/ 2 backs. Spurlock slips and is too aggressive, missing his block. Hudson slips and misses his block (he looks to be more hurt with the foot injury than we first thought). Thompson doesn't make his cut but still gets two yards. Lack of attention to detail.

2-8 Bert Reed End Around No Gain. Tight formation, run Reed to the wide side off inside zone action, played really well by their OLB, Bert can't cut back.

1-G (from 7). Inside zone left from 2TE (Even) set w/ Twin WR. TD Thomas Jones 7 yards. Jones hits the tight cutback and it's the correct read. Spurlock and McMahon with great blocks, J-State badly over-pursued. Jones with good toughness.)

1-10 Outside? Zone. Tye Jones loses 2 yards. Indecisive, not much hole, but Jones has to just hit it up in the hole here. Loss of 2 yards. Spurlock is iffy here, but Sanders doesn't block anyone. No fire from the Oline.

1-16 Inside Zone Right Tye Jones for 9 Jones decisively makes his read and cuts backside left. Reliford doesn't block worth a damn. Datko-Hudson are late to come off their combo. Play was run from the Even 2TE, Twins WR set.

2-7 offset I strong, Twins Weak, Givens (slot) end around for 15. As much as we bag on Jbarris Little, he had a good blocking effort here, as did Caz Piurowski

1-10, 2TE (even), Twin WR, Inside Zone right, Chris Thompson loss of 3 Again, FSU wants to get away from running I-formation. They really want to run their stuff from a 2TE set. But Reliford just gives no effort on this block and his man eliminates Thompson's ability for the cutback. In fact, it's tough to judge Thompson here because Reliford's man was on top of him so quickly.

3-24, frustrated after giving up a huge sack and a throwaway ruled a lateral out of bounds, FSU's offense decided to run out the of the I-formation on 3rd and 24. That play is lead draw (think 90's Cowboys), and Thompson gets 10, but could have had 50 if he cuts left a few yards past the LOS.

1-10, Twins I-Formation, Bert Reed quick motion end around (straight motion, not orbit), for about 4.

1-10 Tye Jones Inside Zone Read for 3 Jones dis nowhere near the gun runner Jermaine Thomas is, but he does get 3. if he waited for Rodney Hudson to make his block, he might have had 10.

2-2 Twin TE I Formation, Toss right to Thompson, Gard (fulback) and Spurlock both miss their blocks, tackle for loss of 2 yards. Spurlock must play smarter, but the aggressiveness is there.

4-1 Twin TE I-Fomration, Outside Zone left, no gain. I like the call, but Rodney Hudson actually missed a block here, seriously.

1-10 4WR Gun, End Around to Bert Reed for 3 yard loss. Bert is the outside man in the formation, to the short side. Zebrie Sanders' man reads this really well and beats Zebrie to the edge, but Tye Jones also needs to get a chip there. Don't let pass up an obvious defender. While Bert doesn't always run these well, this was on Sanders/Jones and not on Reed.

2-10 Lead/Sprint Draw from I-formation Twins WR, Jones for 3 Tye doesn't run this very well and doesn't seem comfortable doing it.

1-10, Twin TE, I-Formation Thomas inside zone right, cuts back left, 5 yard gain. Strange play, not really sure what FSU was trying to run, but Thomas hit the cutback hole well.

2-5 Twins WR I, Thomas outside zone to tight end side (short side of field), 3 yards. J-State just played this really well. FSU needed to check to a pass here, with 8 maybe 9 in the box.

2-2, Chris Thompson outside zone for 1, fumble. This is the play everyone is complaining about, but Jimbo said Ty Jones was banged up, and Thomas had just had back to back carries, so he put Thompson in. Spurlock didn't make a good block here, falling down, but Thompson probably could have hit the huge cutback lane and had 5-6 yards.

Conclusions.

Reliford and Jabarris Little must block better. It is really obvious that FSU wants to run from multiple tight end formations without a fullback. Fisher doesn't want to use marginal walk-on fullback Daniel Gard. But right now, Gard is a better option than Reliford or Little because those two do not care about blocking. Reliford shows almost no effort and looked really bad Saturday. It was probably one of the worst blocking efforts I've ever seen from a player over the course of an entire game. Little has an aversion to contact. The technique stuff won't improve overnight, but hopefully the effort will. In the meantime, expect more 3-wide sets.

Further, this game showed that FSU's offensive line is not immune from a week of poor preparation. If you're willing to throw the rest of the performance into the "hangover effect off huge loss, rain, only 2 days of (poor) practice, and lookahead to BYU" category, then the OLine must be there as well. They are also football players.

Where is the gun run? Last year, FSU was an excellent gun-run team, because teams had to respect the thread of the QB run. This year, I haven't seen it as much. It needs to come back. It's the difference between a good and great offense. Maybe this has more to do with Jermaine Thomas' injury. I don't want to believe that Fisher wants to get away from this, as has been suggested by a few readers. QB mobility is king in college, and FSU is putting themselves at a numerical disadvantage by not running from the gun. Expect more of that soon as long as Thomas is healthy.

Tye Jones is a good back, and runs the inside zone very well. He doesn't look great from the gun though and I don't love him on the draw plays.

And finally, speaking of health, I think Rodney Hudson's foot injury is worse than initially thought. He isn't dominating, just merely playing well.

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Florida State's Offense Soars in the First Fall Scrimmage

FSUncensored — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 19:29:59 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Quarterback Christian Ponder completed 15 of 20 passes for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns- no picks, finishing with a near perfect QB rating in the first FSU scrimmage of the fall. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Browse more photos »

It's still quite early, but it appears the ACC's top offense from a year ago is taking the next step to becoming a nationally elite attack. The 'Noles held their first scrimmage of the Fall this morning, and while it was closed to the public (and media), some news is trickling out.

The 'Noles offense is still very much run oriented, but it's stifled in the practice setting because the 'Noles run threat in quarterback Christian Ponder is negated by the green no-contact jersey (if the QB is touched, he is down). Anyone who saw Ponder run in a game knows that he is not easily arm tackled.

Throughout the Spring (10 yards per carry) and the early fall, the run game dominated. In today's scrimmage, the defense decided to stop the run. They brought their safeties down close to the line of scrimmage ("the box"), and dared the 'Nole offense to throw. The defense succeeded in slowing the run game, as Jermaine Thomas had only 36 yards on 8 carries.

You'll remember that Bert Reed told us about the responsibility the wide receivers to make big plays when teams over-commit to stopping the run. He was excited about the opportunities. And he should be. Teams will absolutely respect and key on the 'Nole's run game this year, where last year they did not. So today the defense gave the offense a preview of what other teams will likely run against FSU, and the offense responded. Big.

Christian Ponder was 15-20 for 287 yards and 4 TD's- NO Interceptions. The offense opened the scrimmage with three straight TD drives. Plays of 30+ yards were the norm. The pass protection appeared to be everything it was not last year, thanks to an average weight gain of 11lbs per man (and of course, another year in the system for what was the youngest offensive line in the game). Jarmon Fortson caught 3 balls for 108 yards. Fortson has really responded since Jimbo Fisher tore into him Tuesday morning, showing a more consistent focus, thinking about what he has to do each play- before the play, and looking the ball in.

Remember that the 1st team offense faced the 2nd team defense, and the 2nd team offense faced the 1st team defense. Keep it in perspective. It's still early.

For more on the scrimmage, see Andrew Carter's Bhopping Block Report and Steve Ellis' Democrat Report. The 1st team defense did a decent job against the 2nd team offense- including Jamie Robinson picking off ultra-talented but still raw quarterback EJ Manuel (remember he removed the periods from his name).

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Picking up where he left off following spring practice, junior quarterback Christian Ponder displayed poise in the pocket and accuracy through the air, highlighting the play in Florida State's first preseason scrimmage Saturday inside Doak Campbell Stadium.

While the Seminoles successfully balanced the run and the pass in the situational scrimmage, Ponder excelled, completing 15 of 20 attempts for 287 yards and four touchdowns. FSU quarterbacks Ponder, EJ Manuel, Will Secord and Ryan Becker spread the wealth, as 14 different players collected receptions, though no one player had more than three.

"I think the best thing about it was we came out with the right attitude," Ponder said of the scrimmage. "We're willing to work and compete, and I thought that was good. Obviously, we had some big plays. A lot of guys, when their number was called, came up with the big play which is something we need."

Best of all, the success of the passing game came in the face of an active pass rush.

"The defense put a little more pressure on (the quarterbacks) than they had in the past," said FSU coach Bobby Bowden, who liked what he saw from the passing game. "The pass rush was better."

FSU's defense made its share of plays as well. Free safety Jamie Robinson added another interception to his stout preseason performance. Robinson had a second interception erased by a defensive penalty.

"I did have some high expectations for myself (last season), wanting to make some big plays," said Robinson, who finished with four tackles. "It didn't really pan out like I thought last year, but it's really starting out pretty good this year."

Cornerback A.J. Alexander also collected an interception, but his touchdown return of the theft was wiped out by a defensive penalty. Defensive end Markus White had a 30-yard return after scooping up an errant pitch. Defensive end Toshmon Stevens had two sacks among his three tackles for loss, while linebacker Mister Alexander was in on two tackles for loss and also forced a fumble.

It was the kind of performance - with big plays on both sides - that flashed the teams' potential but also made them realize there is a lot of room to grown before the Sept. 7 opener against Miami.

"(We are) a young team that has ability, that will make plays at times and be very inconsistent at times," offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher said. "We competed hard in the game. Even when bad things happened to us, we put it away and got on to the next play.

"I never saw guys dwelling on mistakes; never saw guys dwelling on big plays."

What Fisher did see was solid running from tailbacks Jermaine Thomas and Lonnie Pryor. Pryor, a freshman pressed into significant action due to injury, led the Seminoles with 51 yards on nine carries.

"I was proud of (Pryor)," Fisher said. "He's a tough 'ol nut. He'll stick his nose in there."

Thomas added 36 yards on eight carries.

Wide receiver Jarmon Fortson collected three receptions for 106 yards, while Rod Owens added three for 84, including a touchdown. Bowden singled out those two and tight end Caz Piurowski for standout performances.

White led the defense with six tackles, while linebacker Nigel Carr and safety Korey Mangum added five each.

"We could have done a little better," White said. "You can always get better. ... We just need to think better sometimes and play better mentally and from there, just keeping going up."

Chop talk

Freshman kicker Dustin Hopkins converted two field goals, including a long of 47 yards. ... James Esco was perfect on three PAT conversions, while Hopkins split the uprights on his two attempts. ... QB EJ Manuel overcame early-scrimmage jitters to lead the offense to a touchdown in a Red Zone series. Manuel completed both of his pass attempts, including an 11-yard scoring strike to freshman Josh Gehres. ... Freshman quarterback Will Secord connected with classmate Willie Haulstead on a 42-yard TD pass. ... The Seminoles closed out the morning scrimmage with four goal line plays. The defense managed two stops from the one, but both Thomas and Pryor scored on 3-yard runs. ... FSU planned to cap the day with a 90-minute, evening workout, focusing on the kicking game.

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