SB Nation - Bert Reed

Florida State v. Maryland Highlights & Press Conference Notes

FSUncensored — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:00:30 -0000

[Note by FSUncensored, The basketball preview will be up around Noon Eastern. ]

Here are some highlights from Pbysh's youtube:

Of note:

The wide receiver blocking in this game was very good for the most part.
On Lonnie Pryor's long TD option run, the key is how E.J. runs past the 1st defender and then options off the 2nd defender. That's really tremendous and made the whole play go. Maryland was just outnumbered at that point!
I cannot say enough about Lonnie Pryor. He needs to have a ton of tomahawks on his helmet! The kid's blocking and hands are outstanding for a freshman. Jimbo Fisher was all about this kid in his interview with Jeff Cameron. Watch the block Pryor throws at the 7 minute mark!
We are spoiled by Ponder. The difference in timing between him and EJ is noticeable.
I don't think EJ's issue lofting the ball as much as it is that he's not quite as decisive in his reads and his delivery still needs a bit of work. There's also an optical illusion at work here. Because he releases the ball so high, it looks like it is being lofted, but in actuality it is sometimes just coming down because it starts at such a high point. Be mindful of that.
2 of the 3 interceptions Manuel threw were actually not his fault. A receiver or tight end ran the wrong route or was not on the same page with Manuel.

Some thoughts here:

It's really hard to say anything good about a defense that allows one of the worst offenses in the country to have a great day, and with 405+ yards and 37 minutes of possession time, that's what Maryland had.
That said, I am very impressed with the progress made by the young defensive tackles, particularly Jacobbi McDaniel (#99 freshman) and Everette Dawkins (#93 soph). DT coach O'Dell Haggins is making a case to keep his job next year. I am warming to the idea, but the ultimate call should rest with the new DC.
Andrew Carter and I talked about this via Twitter, but the play at 0:29 is becoming very predictable. We both called it before it happened.
#80 Jarmon Fortson had a noticeable drop in this game, but he also bailed Manuel out a few times. And his drop wouldn't have happened had Manuel delivered the ball on-time or slightly late rather than way late. This is a freshman QB, and he is growing.
Throw and catch to the dependable senior #86 Rod Owens at the 1:45 mark is dangerous but also encouraging.
The 2:26 block by Owens #86 on Reed's reverse TD was sensational. Team work.
The move EJ Manuel makes at 4:45 is sick. Great instincts.
Look at Bert Reed #83's block at 5:05 on the LB #54. Also, nice use of the pump fake by Manuel.
SITUATIONAL FOOTBALL. IT IS WHAT BAMA DOES. IT IS WHAT FSU DOES. IT IS WHAT GOOD TEAMS DO. And boy did it show at the end of this game The whole team is composed. They play urgency but without panic. I can't tell you how encouraging that is to see from an offense with only two upperclassmen on the field.
Kudos to the coaches for not burning the timeouts earlier in the game. FSU had them when and if they needed them.
Manuel's interview is pretty much everything you want. Fisher has these guys practice their media skills. Just as Ponder refused to blame Fortson for the drop against Miami even though it was obviously a well-thrown ball, Manuel here will not blame his tight end Reliford for turning the wrong way on two of the three interceptions.
And finally, Mickey Andrews is incredibly classy, and FSU couldn't have drawn up a better 25 years.
Look at Fisher's smile at the 6:57 mark.

Florida State Pulls Out 29-26 Win Over Maryland

FSUncensored — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:36:40 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

26 days ago: Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews waves to the crowd following a ceremony honoring his retirement prior to the start of an NCAA college football game against Maryland, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. Andrews is retiring after 26 years as Florida State's defensive coordinator.(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

Maryland ran 73 plays to FSU's 50, and Florida State's defense couldn't get the Terps' offense off the field as Maryland held the ball for an incredible 38 minutes of possession time. But what FSU's offense did with those 50 plays was hand Maryland their 2nd worst defensive game of the season. The 'Noles gained 8 yards per snap and yet they still struggled to find a rhythm as they sat on the sidelines for long periods of time. All 3 of FSU's interceptions came after Maryland drives of 4, 6, and 6 minutes.

Florida State led 14-13 at halftime. In the 3rd quarter, Maryland started a drive that went 59 yards on 7 plays to lead 19-14 at the beginning of the 4th quarter. Florida State then went 62 yards in only 4 plays for the score, highlighted by Bert Reed's 42 yard end around for a touchdown. The 2-point conversion was good and the 'Noles led 22-19. But Florida State's 90th ranked defense was again a sieve and allowed Maryland to march 79 yards on 12 plays for the touchdown and the 26-22 lead. The drive lasted 6 minutes. Florida State was then intercepted and the defense held. Freshman return sensation Greg Reid gave FSU good field position for the first time all day, and freshman quarterback E.J. Manuel led FSU to victory with runs of 15 and 20, and a pass of 7 yards. FSU led 29-26. And importantly, they left Maryland with only 32 seconds.

Florida State had a sparse crowd for what was Mickey Andrews' last game. It was also senior day. And Judging by the attendance at the game, 'Nole fans just aren't interested in the product FSU is putting on the field. This was an important weekend for recruiting and it will be very interesting to see what the recruits at the game on official visits felt about the atmosphere and the program. Maryland had only a single win over a 1A team on the season and FSU kept it that way. Florida State is now bowl eligible for a record 28th consecutive season and will travel to the swamp to face the Florida Gators, in what is becoming a rivalry in name only as the Gators will be looking to win their 6th straight over the Noles. UF will be 4-touchdown favorites and the game will be televised nationally on CBS.

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

View full size photo »

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

Florida State Football Performance Report 11.17.09

FSUncensored — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:43:29 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Jermaine Thomas (38) runs against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Florida State won, 41-28. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Browse more photos »

Let's start out with something different for a moment. My best friend is serving in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Xerox is sponsoring a project that will send free cards to all of the soldiers. You can fill our your own personalized message and choose from 15 cards drawn by elementary school children across the united states. Here is the link for the project: http://www.LetsSayThanks.com/Home1024.html It takes less than a minute and you'll make a soldier's day.

Now for the offense. FSU went on scoring drives of 81, 79, 68, 68, 43, and 27 yards. 4 offensive touchdowns and 2 field goals. Get some, Wake Forest! Let's break down the offensive performance. As with all photos here, click them to enlarge.

7.2 yards per play is outstanding. In a normal game where FSU gets 70 plays, that's 500+ yard pace. Excellent job EJ. And the gameplan was ridiculously simple. FSU ran some version of the Veer 9 times. Don't tell anyone, but that's basically UF's offense. When they threw the ball it was a screen or a crossing route. I counted 5 passes that traveled more than 8 yards downfield. E.J. Manuel managed the game well and did exactly what FSU asked him to do.

Inside we have more charts, recaps of the press conferences, and highlight videos!

Want to settle your QB down and let him have a nice day? Own 1st down. And that's exactly what FSU did. Of 30 1st down plays, FSU only had two for 20+ yards, but they were successful a superb 53% of the time, and were only held to 1 or fewer yards on 6 of 30 1st down plays. Of those 16 successes, 10 of them were accomplished via Jermaine Thomas. That's important because we're dealing with a young quarterback.

Mmmmm The best offense in the conference kept on hummin'. And there's no scheduling quirk here. FSU has faced 7 of the conference's best 9 defenses.

Oh, and Jeff Cameron of 1270TheTeam Sports Radio had Jimbo Fisher on with him yesterday. Have a listen.

As for individual player breakdowns, I thought the right side of the offensive line did a tremendous job. That's guard David Spurlock and Tackle Zebrie Sanders. This offensive line is already very good, but they might be incredible next year. I really think they surprise teams, and especially opposing linebackers, with their quickness. It messes up the angles opposing backers must take. Ryan McMahon was his usual solid self. He doesn't dominate but he does what we ask him to. Rodney Hudson, until he got injured (and they are expected to hold him out until the UF game with his mild knee sprain), looked good. And maybe most impressive because of his injury was Andrew Datko (separated shoulder). I thought he did a great job and a shoulder injury is not all that easy to play with.

As for the backs. Thomas ran hard and was decisive. He made the right cuts almost all of the time. Ty Jones was not impressive at all. Anyone could have run through those huge holes.

My player of the game might be Rod Owens. He blocked his butt off and also ran some great rotues for Manuel. Twice on 3rd downs, Manuel was very late making his read and Owens slowed down knowing he could get killed but wanting to give his QB an open target. A big +1 for Rod Owens! Bert Reed didn't screw around and got upfield quickly.

I like the idea of flipping the ball to Jarmon in space. It somewhat limits what coverages the opposition can play and he is an athletic freak.

Here's Jimbo's Notes from the press conference that I took down yesterday:

We had some complexity in the offense and we were fortunate to hit our plays when we called them. E.J. was doing the things that he needed to do. He executed the gameplan very well. Stayed in good down and distance, fortunate to have the plays be open (implying Wake's plan was dumb). No delay penalties. Changed protections, routes, etc.

Every play is from a family of plays so when the QB checks down they have to know what they are looking to attack. Jimbo teaches conceptually. What are we trying to attack. If we know it we can change on the fly. Harder to learn at first but better in the long run.

E.J. and Christian both understand the concepts of football and I think this is the reason they pick things up so quickly.

These are good emotions this week. They have great futures ahead of them. We do have some upper classmen who have grown up and they will go off the right way.

Never had this small of a senior class before. FSU loses only Goodman, Piurowski, and Owens, to graduation (on offense).

E.J. has a lot of instincts to play football. Jermain Thomas did a nice job to help E.J. with the pitches by being where he needed to be. Did a great job of maintaining the pitch relationship.

You have to have the dependability of a running back who adds the dimension of a consistent running back.

Tavares Pressley could see some PT this week.

Brandon Davis did a nice job coming in for Rodney

I think the whole group (WR's) played the best game they have from blocking to running routes.

Jarmon Fortson doesn't realize how much time this game really takes. I am not down on him but he can get to another level of greatness if he gets all of the details. I am really looking forward to seeing how he progresses. (Jimbo challenges Fortson every week.

Maryland blitzes like crazy and they are hard to prepare for." "They do it all." "As tough to prepare for in terms of blitzing as anyone we have played. This could be a game where we mix incompletes with big plays because of the blitz. When you blitz the YAC yards, yards after catch are there to be made then our receivers have to make plays. I thin Joe Montana did a very good job of getting his receivers the ball where each of them needed it. E.J. will understand the concepts but he will need to put in a lot of study time this week.

I told E.J. the other day that Christian had a lot of success each week because he prepared for every game the same way. E.J. has had some success now he just needs to play the game. This is bigger than anyone who has ever been involved with it. E.J. is very self motivated and I tell him that the hardest job in football is being the backup QB. He did a great job and he prepared to play and it showed. If you think I am waiting and not going to play is not the way to prepare for a game. E.J. and Christian are very similar in a lot of ways."

We are looking forward to having Chris Thompson back this week." (Thompson's grandfather passed away and they had a close relationship.)

If good enough is ever good enough then we have a problem. "Good enough is never good enough to me."

Fisher then talked about a question regarding the running game not being as good as people expected. Said a lot of that run game went from the QB's legs to the qb's arm. I think people were shocked to see that we could throw as well as we did this year. I want to see how efficient we are on each play. Pass blocking has been much better this year than we were a year ago. "I don’t care how many yards we run or throw for, I care about how efficient are we each play."

Receivers are getting into their routes better, breaking them off better, catching it better. We are making quick decisions. Everything on offense is doing better.

Jimbo smirked when told this offense is the best since 2000, then said he wasn’t aware of that. Said he is much more comfortable as a playcaller.

We are learning to play with more consistency.

We are getting better but I still think we leave a lot out there. Not just yards but more great runs, more great throws, more great catches.

When things aren't just like you coach them up these guys are making the adjustments to keep the play moving and that is a good sign.

Fisher said when he is going through grading the offense, there are consistent pluses rather than a big play then a minus.

On Mickey Andrews: I don’t know if anybody played any better defense during any time during any era of college football than during Mickey’s 20 years. Until you are a great defensive team you’re not a great team. Defense keeps you in games. FSU used to win 41-39 until Mickey got here. Nobody’s legacy is above Mickey Andrews. How would you attack a mickey andrews defense? had to be balanced, had to recruit a lot better "I mean they rattatattattd them now I tell ya. (fsu hitting weurffel)"

Then he talked for a while about how having big hands and long arms helps in play-action.

On Goodman- trying to get him back.

Owens, EJ, and Jermaine players of the game. Owens had some great blocks and showed great patience in his routes. Great feel for that.

On Greg Reid returning punts and not kicks… not sure, said Pat is good too. (It's not his call)

Can’t afford to lose Cas, Christian, Rich, Rodney, but we have to have other guys step up. give someone else the chance to be a hero. guys keep stepping up keep competing keep battling great traits for the future

We are recruiting guys to fit our mold and practicing better than before. Then (2007) they were memorizing plays now they get the concepts to what you teach which allows you to make adjustments. the older guys never got that and it was unfair to ask them to get it.

The Streak Is Over!

Our regular readers know that we had been tracking a rather embarrassing streak. Florida State's defense had allowed every opponent to post their best offensive game of the season in either Points, Total Yards, or the most important measure of performance, Yards-Per-Play. That is no longer the case. FSU held Wake Forest to only their 3rd best offensive performance of the year. Now, don't get too excited. Wake still gained 20% more than they had been averaging in conference games. Also, the streak would have come to an end thanks to UNC finally cracking the 5 yards-per-play barrier against someone (Miami, haha), and Clemson racking up an insane performance against NC State, both of which pushed FSU's defensive efforts down some.

For more on that Clemson game, which should make you feel a bit better about losing to those guys (they are a top 10 team this year, bank it), go here Clemson - NC State film review - Shakin The Southland. Also, want a fun stat? Sure you do. Miami's Jacory Harris leads the country in interceptions. And before Miami fans feed you some tired line about how their offense throws for more yards per pass and are thus more likely to throw an INT, don't believe it. Miami is 4th in conference in yards per pass, behind FSU, a team that doesn't try to go deep on every play.

Let's go comprehensive on the game:

Where did FSU succeed on defense? They used a variety of run blitzes on 1st down. Sometimes they worked and Wake was stopped for 1 or fewer yards. Other times they didn't and FSU was in the wrong gaps and hit for a big gain. Andrews talked about this some in his press conference.

I thought Kevin McNiel played better. Perhaps he is now in shape. Everette Dawkins played a very nice game from what I saw (#93).

FSU is definitely playing more zone defense now and they played it well on Saturday. Mangum is not as bad covering half a field as he is covering a whole field.

Our backers still do not read their keys and I'm not sure they know them. Chuck Amato is a horrible coach. Really puzzled as to why Wake didn't run more misdirection. I like Nigel Carr's energy. Bradham is progressing slower than I'd like but he is coming around.

Upon watching again, we did have some guys running free in the secondary who were not accounted for and that is a problem. Skinner just didn't hit them.

Andrews said it was a team game. Everyone pitched in.

Aays they won 1st down and aoccomplished the goal (didn't state the goal)

3rd and long did not win (we might have forced more, it's a step in the right direction)

How many yards did they make after contact? few longballs but lots of short plays that went long. (We played a lot of cover-2)

4th down not good, (but honestly, those are 4th and short’s, it's not a big deal)

Happy he didn’t have to face skinner again and they didn’t win 4 in a row

When they pull, it creates a new gap, you have to maintain gap integrity and re-adjust your leverage. (Mickey is right here, FSU did not go a good job of this. Said they got 100+ yards doing this).

Mickey said they are only doing the ceremony stuff because they were asked. (He is incredible humble)

When you’re a committed football coach, sometimes you have to do things you don’t wanna do, even when your priorities should be elsewhere, like if your family needs you. (Mickey clearly hinting that he was begged to come back but probably shouldn't be here). Thanks to Mickey for 25+ great years.

Greg reid has come along and been rewarded with more PT.

Mickey really looks better today, seems happy.

Highlight Videos!

Previewing the FSU Offense

DrB — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:07:43 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

3 months ago: Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, center, yells at his offense during an NCAA college football game against Miami, Monday, Sept. 7, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

Having been at LSU while Fisher ran the offense to the 2003 national championship, I'm pretty familiar with what he likes to run out there. He's always been able to develop his quarterback into at least a solid, and potentially great, player under his tutelage (JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Nix, Matt Mauck) and Christian Ponder might be the best pure athlete he's had at the position. Make no mistake, Ponder is the center of this offense and is the key to limit as best as possible.

The Fisher offensive system is a pro-style spread, in that sense its the same as Clemson's, but this is a catch-all term. It is a system that uses considerably less pre-snap motion and more personnel groupings than what Clemson does. It is more multiple in formations: I-formation, offset I, Ace, Jumbo Ace (2TE-1RB-2WR), 3/4 wide shotgun, pistol...with liberal use of the H-back or a 2nd TE. Its not a system that is designed to dink & dunk you in a West-Coast style like Miami, but attacks all levels of the defense. He always took what the defense gave: if they can run, he'll run it. They'll throw it deep, intermediate, and short. Fisher did not run quite as many screens at LSU in my recollection, but it has been developed into a heavier screen offense to keep pressure off Ponder and force the defense to make plays in space: 37 times so far this year of all types (bubbles, tunnels/jailbreaks, cracks, and regular). However, its been inconsistent at times, which has helped lead to their record being so poor. Still, its ranked 25th nationally and put up 443ypg.

FSU this year has still been more of a passing team. FSU is 9th in the country at 307 yards per game. Christian Ponder (6-3, 217, Jr) is 206-297 (69.4%) for 2,453 yards, 13 touchdowns and only three picks. If he misses a throw, he misses it where NOBODY can catch it. Picks will be at a premium this week. He's extremely intelligent with the football, and makes many audibles and checks himself at the line, without looking at Jimbo. Ponder has also rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He's not quite the runner so far that he's been in the past (hasnt had to be), and with bruised ribs and ankle, I'm not sure he'll run a zone read as much as Fisher would want to, after watching our film.

Their receivers catch more of their throws than Miami does, with 5 of them pulling in at least 25 receptions. Taiwan Easterling has been hot of late, but I believe Bert Reed and Rod Owens are the biggest threats.

Their running game, however, has been pretty average. Florida State is 74th in the NCAA and fifth in the ACC in rushing with 136.5 yards per game. FSU is a zone-blocking team, and run the same plays we do in that respect: inside zone, stretch/outside zones, shotgun/pistol zone plays and counters, with I-formation runs like the counter, iso and blast. Jermaine Thomas is the leading rusher but is a great receiver out of the backfield. They also run considerable play-action off of these, and run much more no-huddle than we have seen so far.

The OL is great at pass-blocking, even with 5-man protections, which in part has led to Ponder's decreased rushing and improved completion percentages, but Ponder doesnt hold onto the ball long. They handled UNC's front extremely well against the pass, and I would say, only given the superior talent and skills at LB for UNC, that their front 7 is better than Clemson's. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2 at UNC. If at any point you believe during this game that our DL isnt getting pressure, start counting seconds after the snap until Ponder gets rid of the ball. It wont be long. They are a bit small up front, but well coached and athletic. In run blocking, they are very average, probably due to their youth.

But, FSU has not faced a good secondary like Clemson sends out there. Our guys are faster, better coached, and more aggressive than UNC's. Now we'll look at a few of the plays you should see from FSU this weekend. From Kevin Steele:

Would you say they're pretty diverse with all the stuff they do on offense?

Steele: "Yeah. They're very multiple in their personnel groupings. They're multiple in their formation groupings. They've got the vertical passing game, the intermediate pass game, they throw a lot of screens and they create the two-back running game with the quarterback and tailback. They're about as diverse as you can get."

Does Christian Ponder remind you of any of the guys you've seen this year?

Steele: "No. He's a little bit different. He throws the ball like an NFL quarterback and runs it like a college option QB in the 70's and 80's, which is a rare thing now. He's a very gifted young man, very, very bright. I know him quite well."

"I recruited him, No. 1. I was in his home. I know what kind of young man he is. He's a bright person and has a lot of tenacity. He's very calm and has natural leadership qualities. He's a very special young man. He's what it's all about. I think he's working on his masters and he's just a junior. I wasn't working on my masters when I was a junior."

Is it hard to get to Ponder sometimes, given their quick passing game?

Steele: "You're not going to sack a quarterback when he throws 37 screens in four games. It's a rare occasion a quarterback is sacked on a screen. That's a another deal. You approach that totally different. When they go traditional, drop-back pass game, we have to do what we do, which is four-man rush, pressure and push the pocket in his lap and dial up the pressures when they need to be dialed up."

Who are some of the other guys that concern you other than Ponder?

Steele: "Their running back is a good player. He can hit the homerun. #38 can go the distance. No. 24 at fullback is a tailback. They can formation you with multiple tailbacks. The receivers, you have to know where No. 80 is. He's a big presence that makes big catches for them. No. 83 and 8 are the guys who are getting the reverses and the screens. Obviously you have to make sure you get those guys. The last couple of games for them, there has been a lot of tackling in space. They're going to get the ball in space, although they can and do throw it down the field effectively. A lot of that stuff is get the ball on the edge quickly with the bubble screen, reverses, option with the orbit over the top. If you tackle in space, you have a chance."

The Screen

-The screen is designed to do a few things: attack zone blitzes who give up something in underneath zones (nearly all zone blitzes are Cover 3), attack man coverage on blitzes, force the defense to tackle in open space, and, most importantly against Clemson, slow down the pass rush.

-Bubble screens: the slit or motion WR bubbles away from the QB, while the outside WR will come in to crack a slotman's defender to spring him. Some offenses will actually abort a running play and throw a bubble screen if the linebacker blitzes. The only players who make this judgment are the wide receivers and quarterback. The offensive linemen and backs actually go ahead and execute a running play.

-Jailbreak screen: WR comes in over the middle behind the linemen. It's called a jailbreak is because the offensive line releases automatically downfield to block, after chucking the DLinemen. The offensive tackle stays in and chops the DE to keep his hands down so that the ball can be thrown over the top of him. The offense uses a TE or wide receiver to go away from the line of scrimmage to pick the outside receiver's man.

-Crack screen: A killer against man coverage with a LB on the RB. In 4 wide shotgun, the slot WR would crack block the LB assigned to the back, while the outside WR would take an outside release vertically to draw his Corner away. The Nickelback or safety on the slot wouldnt recognize the play coming and wouldnt immediately pick up the back.

Theres no reason why you cant crack one side and run a bubble to the other, both are going to be high percentage passes. Then theres the usual screen play that sends a RB out with 2 OL in front of him. Usually a skilled DE can get off blocks and disrupt these plays by jumping/rushing into the throwing lanes, and with discipline can tell that the RB and OL are releasing and stop his rush to play the screen. Otherwise, there really is no trick to stopping a screen play for the defense.

Just hope you dont get caught in a blitz.

From Smartfootball, the bootleg play Jimbo ran against Miami.

The Smash pattern: A two-WR pattern where the inside/slot WR runs a 12 yd Corner route, and the outside receiver runs a 6yd hitch. Smash has become a go-to for attacking Cover 2 zone defenses, but also can attack man coverage. Against man to man defense to the short side of the field the depth of the corner route will be around 20 yards.

In this play, which worked to success against UNC, the QB has a simple progression read: 1. the Corner route, 2. the hitch, 3. underneath, keying the CB. If the cornerback sinks back to stop the corner route, throw the hitch; if he comes up for the hitch, corner route. In general, you take the corner route til the defense shifts to stop it.

In Cover 2, the CB usually takes a "flat" zone with safety help up top. He'll read both #1 and #2 to his side and gets sandwiched by both of these routes. If the corner comes up on the hitch, the outside WR will push to 6, turn inside, and work inside to the next zone hole. It puts pressure on the safety to that side to get over to cover the Corner route and if the defense "cheats" by telling him to shift over a few yards, then the middle of the field is open.

In combination with this pattern, the "divide concept" can be used. The safety may cheat over for the Smash, and the TE runs a skinny post down the middle. This way, the SS is caught in a pickle and must read the QB's eyes and be fast getting to whomever the ball is thrown to.

Here is the Double Smash against UNC.

To defend this, I think a defense must pattern-read or play great man/man defense. A possible 2nd adjustment is switching to Cover 3. Against man the corner route must be thrown well or its hard to hit because of the Safety/Nickel taking inside leverage on his receiver. However, it is not a CB on the slot WR, so it can give them a better matchup.

Pattern-reading is a technique used with matchup zone, which Clemson runs. Essentially, the defensive backs are taught all the possible combinations (patterns) an offense can run to each side of the field, based on the personnel grouping. It improves their instincts immensely. Once the defense recognizes Smash, they can react and make plays, and every pattern-read Cover 2 team will rep the Smash every day.

Looking at UNC, they are a blitz-happy Cover 1/2-Man under team like Clemson. They are ranked higher nationally, particularly against the run. FSU smashed them in the passing game. Clemson went to more matchup zone and less blitzing against Miami, and I expect that to occur Saturday night. Still, Miami put up 433 on us.

To defend against Ponder's ability to scramble, do not be surprised to see our usual Cover 1 "Robber" defense, where Maye will be, in effect, the spy watching Ponder and waiting for him. If our LBs and secondary have a good day, I think we can contain this offense well enough to win.

Other than the Miami game where you gave up a bunch of big plays, you haven't been troubled with that extensively this year.

Steele: "We've been pretty effective. I think we're in the top four or five teams in the country in allowed first downs. We're right at the 70-percent mark in getting off the field on third down, which that is the benchmark. We've done a good job of getting pressure on the QB. Our coverage has been good. Not since I've been coaching and one team had 80-something yards passing and another team had 25 and another team had 27 yards passing. Somebody out there is rushing the passer pretty good and somebody is matching those routes pretty good. Coach Harbison has done a good job of getting those guys in route recognition. (pattern reading)

"There are some things we have to keep getting better at. Every game will present its own problems. For example, you mentioned the TCU quarterback. The first time we saw that play was that day. It was very different. They ran it four times and he did a good job on it. We run it every week now in practice whether we see it or not. The first play of the game this week was the same play and I think it went for two yards. Sometimes you'll see things in this game you haven't seen before, because of all the pullers and motions and shifts. They're not going to go out there and do it perfect. If everybody's perfect, we wouldn't have a job."

(image credit goes to Smartfootball and vids to Tomahawk Nation)

Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Rod Owens, left, and Beau Reliford celebrate Owens' touchdown against North Carolina during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. Florida State won 30-27. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Welcome to another edition of Florida State Film Review! For the 2nd week in a row, I'm not breaking down the defense on a play-by-play basis because they are so poorly coached I cannot discern what they are attempting to do from play to play. Maybe I'll look at the defense Tuesday, but it is my honest evaluation that this defense is one of the worst in the country, even when adjusting for competition level. Instead, let's discuss one of the top offenses in the country. Today we have 7 exciting film clips and some photos as well. Continue reading and check it out!

And of course, if you enjoyed this, spread it around to your friends! We recently hit One Million visitors, and pieces like this are a reason why. Our staff puts a lot of work into these, and all 'Nole fans should see them. So spread it around.

Let's review just how impressive FSU's victory was:

Florida State traveled to face off against one of the finest defenses and worst offenses in the country. North Carolina's defense came into the game ranked 10th, their offense 99th. FSU's offense entered the game ranked 8th, their defense 101st. Florida State knew coming into the game that reaching 24 points would be a huge accomplishment against the ferocious North Carolina defense that features multiple future early NFL draft picks. It would be up to FSU's defense to make UNC's horrible offense look, well, horrible. Of course, FSU's defense allowed UNC to roll up 17 1st half points and to score another TD on their first 2nd half drive. FSU was down 24-6 to one of college football's best defenses.

And while FSU was setting up plays for the 2nd half and feeling out what could work, FSU's horrific defense let UNC's pitiful offense run up and down the field.

Let's use a quick chart to put this in perspective. Just how good was FSU's performance? To find out, you must compare it to the other teams who played the Heels:

Team v. UNC's Defense -ranked 10th	at UCONN	ECU	at Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Rank of Offense	49	62	2	56	8
Plays	61	61	77	68	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.2	3.8	6.7
Rushes	31	28	65	37	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7	2.3
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31	41
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8	9.2

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-Downs are not included as they are not a competitive play.
Carolina's defense hasn't allowed anyone to gain more than 5.2 yards per play. FSU put up 6.7 yards per play. Doesn't seem like much? Think again. Florida State gained 30% more yards per play than anyone else had on the Tar Heel's defense. And they did it in North Carolina, on a Thursday night.
1st team to crack 410 yards against UNC’s defense (438), and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA. Georgia Tech had 406, but they did it in Atlanta, and did it on 85 plays. FSU did it on 15 fewer plays. That's about 20% fewer snaps for FSU, but a lot more yards and as shown above, a lot more yards per play.
1st team to put 30 points on UNC’s defense and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA.

So yes, on a Thursday night, Florida State went into the house of one of the best defenses in the country, got down by 18 points by allowing one of the worst offenses in the nation to set season-highs. Then with UNC knowing they would have to pass, they did just that. And did it again and again and again. Florida State obliterated the even the worst numbers that Carolina's stellar defense had allowed all season. The 'Noles put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else had against the Tar Heels, and they did it in Chapel Hill, on a Thursday Night. The credit goes to Jimbo Fisher's halftime adjustments and Christian Ponder's once again excellent play.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels boxscore (Note, this isn't adjusted for sacks of kneeldowns, etc)

What did we learn?

If you don't think FSU is one of the best 5 offenses in the country, you need to wake up. Think a bit smarter and realize the opponent quality when you look at the production. FSU didn't get cupcakes this year.

No offense has scored more points against Miami than FSU.
Florida State's 54 points against BYU is 20 more than the next closest effort by any other team against the Cougars.
Fisher's offense dropped 44 on Georgia Tech; no other team has even cracked 35 on the Jackets, and the one who cracked 30 was Mississippi State who did it in garbage time (31 points).
And you saw the figures from above. FSU put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else did against UNC. And of course they set new season highs for points allowed and yards allowed by UNC.

I'll give a brief overview of the drive and include clips or pictures where relevant.

Drive #1

McMahon continues to have high snaps. 1st play of game. Also, poor pitch relationship between givens and thomas on 2nd down reverse (loss of 10). 3rd and 18 bubble is safe. possible big play and no disaster

Drive #2

Motion Jermaine Thomas out wide is good, gives ponder coverage look, goes from I-form to basically 4 wide. UNC played the spread sets very very conservatively early, counting on their front-4. They had no idea how to react to Thomas motioning wide from I-form. Nice use of pistol formation, lots of things happening. Bubble look to strong, slant weakside w/ Thomas also releasing weak. Hard to align v. pistol.

Then FSU comes out in I-formation twins, carolina has 8 in the box, clearly cover-3 as fsu motions to the weakside. This is cool:

Run-action holds the linebackers, and Zebrie Sanders and David Spurlock slip out to block for Bert reed. This is an excellent use of personnel as FSU is a great screen team due to their athletic offensive linemen. Sander's doesn't nail his block, but this is a very good play to have in the repertoire and is an appropriate counter to teams running lots of cover-3 with 8 in the box against standard personnel. This is a play that fsu can hit for long yardage on 1st downs. Also, look for the Noles to run it to Datko/Hudson's side later.

The bubble screen that reed fumbled/ didn't catch was the correct read by ponder. Owens just missed his block. That's not a call, but rather a check by ponder. against teams playing very loose cover-3 with 8 in the box against twins, fsu will need to continue to throw these. it's simply a regulator.

Bert Reed had a false start which is just not acceptable. poor concentration by the wideouts in the 1st half. (missed block by Owens, false start, etc). And the drive stalls. Pretty good drive against UNC's D.

Drive # 3

(Ponder sacked & fumbled). Arm might have been going forward. Spurlock lunged, and Zebrie got beat to the inside. More on them later. Datko also allowed pressure there. Not a good play, but remember, UNC was going to get a few of those.

Drive #4:

Zone read, very well blocked by 4 of 5, but spurlock not a great cut and his man makes a phenomenal crawling play to trip up thomas. Play had nice potential. Oh and Thomas didn't run real hard on it. Loss of 1. Here's the photo:

The man circled in yellow crawls at light-speed and makes the tackle.

Then FSU hits a 60+ yard play that is called back for an illegal block. Middle screen picture:

Just a step beyond the line. play isn't a penalty if he is 18 inches back. Negates gain of 65 yards. The rule is clear, you cannot block downfield for a pass thrown beyond the line of scrimmage.

Drive # 5:

Pistol Thomas for 4, inside zone. 5 good blocks, held the backside. drew unc offisdes. picked up 2nd and 2 with a 3 yard outside zone run to the right. good blocks, some movement. bert reed good effort on block but tough to block a big backer. Nice protection on the 13 yard slant to Fortson who did a nice job to get the YAC. Option look from off-set pistol, Ponder gets 3 but doesn't pitch the ball like he should (this might be fake option). Fortson has a bad drop on a slant. FSU has to have that. He's open, he's a big body, and he must catch the damn football. drew them offsides again, so from 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 2. Ponder hesitated and didn't hit owens on the 3rd and 2 rollout, his scramble didn't get there. punt.

Drive # 6

Pistol, Bubble. Slightly late as Ponder couldn't grip the ball. Excellent throw and catch on a tight window slant to Owens who gets 8 more yards and gets out of bounds. Fake draw fake end around and toss it to givens for 2 or 3. Good play to show it and kep them honest. Then came a beautiful play: JIMBO FISHER SMASH CLIP.

This is known as the smash. The outside receiver runs a curl and the slot receiver runs a corner route. The QB reads the defender. If the defender plays the curl, the QB throws the Corner. If the defender plays off, the QB throws the Curl. It's quite the cat and mouse game between QB and cornerback, and Ponder plays to win. Beautiful ball and great job getting the foot down by Bert Reed.

So 1st and goal. Reliford misses his block on the qb wrap. in any case, Commack lined up incorrectly, so even if FSU had scored, he would have nullified it. Lack of attention to detail. Coaches were livid. On 2nd and goal, they had the delay. Why? Apparently Bobby didn't realize last year's clock rules, thought clock stopped after a penalty. It doesn't. Assistant coaches can't call timeout, only the head coach, and he was nowhere to be seen. The FSU played it safer and got the FG before half.

At the half, I did not think FSU's offense was getting owned. They were facing a very good defense that had made a few great plays and fsu's offense was just a hair off. the unperfect cut block, a high snap, a drop, a receiver running inside instead of out, etc. There was no absurd physical domination going on. For the most part, FSU had seen a lot of formations to stop the run and the deep ball, giving FSU the short stuff to the outside, which Ponder patiently took. Also, Fisher was setting up some stuff for later.

Florida State began to pound the flats. They got into the Pistol and ran the ball with their zone blocking schemes. They made UNC make tackles in space. They did everything to negate UNC's great size. Amazingly, they repeatedly ran 5-man protections (no tight ends or backs blocking) and did very well with it. The line beautifully handled UNC's defensive line in pass protection and gave Ponder the time he needed to through all of his reads.

Drive # 7

Start out with an inside zone to the weak side. Spurlock doesn't get his cutoff. Pryor runs hard for 1 or 2. Swing to Lonnie sets up 3rd and 3. Throw was low. On 3rd and 3, Thomas can't come up with a well placed throw to the outside, though it was a tough catch. Punt coming.

Drive # 8

Came out in 4-wide gun, protection was excellent, Carolina played soft coverage, easy 7 yards to Owens on a hitch. On 2nd and 5, FSU runs their staple, the Smash, and Ponder overthrows it. It was open, Easterling ran a good route. Maybe the only blatantly bad throw Ponder made. You can see Ponder tell Easterling "My Bad." On 3rd and 5 UNC drops 8 into coverage and Ponder hits Owens on a 7 yard hitch. Good patience, good route. No pass pressure from UNC at all on the drive so far. 1-10 and FSU went high-tempo, Outside Zone run to Thomas from the Pistol. NIce blocks from Hudson and McMahon. UNC's front is very good and to get a 10 yard run there was very good. Thomas seemed to run harder after midway through the 2nd. Beautiful flare throw to Thomas for 9. No pressure from UNC, and they are clearly worried about the deep outside now. The middle of the field will be open later in the game. Foreshadowing duh duh duh. On 2nd and 1, Datko gets beat inside and Thompson can't pick up the first down from the gun. Datko's excellent in pass protection but he sometimes struggles in run blocking. On 3rd and short, FSU doesn't screw around and they quickly sneak for the first. On the 1st, FSU is in the gun and there's a lot to see here. Let's go to the tape:

UNC switched into a 3 man line with 4 linebacker types. They zone blitz at the snap, sending 5 rushers and dropping 2 people into coverage, a linebacker and a lineman. FSU's motion is like their 2-back sweep, but UNC is in full-blitz mode and they do not care. Thomas gets an incredible block, but there's one too many to the right side with the overload. FSU's line is trying to shield left but the blitz is coming from the right. Ponder eludes the guy and throws to Fortson who has done a nice job of beating his man and coming back for the ball, but he drops it. That's his 2nd crucial drop this game. Remember too that he has the sloppy screen route leading to the penalty.

So 2nd and 10. Remember when I said the middle of the field would be open later because FSU had run the smash route so well? Yeah, that's now:

Ponder identifies the cover-2, you can see the checks he makes at the line. The 3 middle defenders drop into their zones, while the two safeties each play a deep half. The linebacker does a nice job to funnel Reed to the sideline, expecting the Smash route (Reed running the corner). But this is no corner route. Reed runs the square in, and Ponder rifles it. It's not a great throw, but considering the dropsies the wideouts have had, it was nice of Reed to catch this one. The window between the linebackers is open and you can see it. Also, the protection is great. Nobody near Ponder.

On the resulting 1st down, FSU expects the safety to cheat to the inside more, because of the previous play. And he's just not cheated enough. The ball is thrown a bit high and the coverage is good. Incomplete. On 2nd down, FSU runs the givens end around action, fakes it to Thomas, looks at Givens, but it's a screen! It gets 7 or 8 yards and I like the call. Thought Hudson released a bit early and was overanxious. You know he wants that cut on that corner again. On 3rd and 3, FSU calls the QB draw. The look is crucial:

Notice how the linebackers are peeling to defend the bubble screen to either side. Ponder gets an easy 10.

On 1st and goal, Easterling can't cleanly catch the bubble but does get 1 or 2 yards. The 2nd and goal is 5 wide double slants. Good routes and a good throw for the TD, 13-24.

Drive # 9:

98 yard TD to Owens. This is a hitch-n-go set up by the hitch after hitch FSU threw earlier. It was a 6 man protection, and UNC rushed with 5. Excellent protection and a nice throw from the end zone.

Drive # 10:

Ponder starts to abuse UNC. They tried to cover Bert Reed with a backup linebacker, and that's just not possible. Perfect pass pro. Fortson gets called for a hold on a bubble to Easterling (I think Easty is on his way back, by the way). Bad luck on a middle screen to Easterling as UNC twisted into it. On a 3rd and 7, Ponder hits Owens for a 15 yard post. No idea what coverage UNC was playing. I suspect that backup linebacker blew the coverage. Here you go:

On the next play, UNC is really desperate to make something happen. They are hyper-aggressive. FSU had done a good job running from the Pistol, and Fisher made a masterful call: Pistol play-action Owens Deep Out:

Watch how hard everyone from UNC pursues what they think is a run play. Ponder had his choice of 3 open receivers. The next play is a 9 yard inside zone out of the Pistol. McMahon does an okay job to hold his line. The Thompson runs again for 9, same play, just flipped. Pretty simple stuff.

On the next play, however, McMahon gets blown away and it leads to a 6 yard loss. Drive killer? Maybe.

So on 2nd and 13, Fisher dials up a GREAT play. Throwback tight end screen. FSU executes it perfectly, but Reliford forgets one thing- to use his blockers. He cuts outside and is impatient. Look at what could happen had he been patient:

Bert made a great catch to get FSU into better field goal range, and Hopkins hits it, 23-24.

Drive # 11:

Down, 27-23, Ponder hits Fortson on a deep skinny off a beautiful double release, off play-action. Then Ponder to Fortson on the auto-rollout w/ the off-sides for 10. Then the go-ahead TD:

Initially, I thought Reliford was Ponder's 4th read. In actuality, he seems to be his 2nd read. Ponder's pump fake makes 3 people cover Fortson on the skinny post and nobody is on Reliford for the wide open wheel route. This throw is more difficult than you probably realize. Ponder throws it from the opposite hash. Even though Reliford is essentially a basketball player, even he can catch this ball. The protection was very good as well. Kudos, offensive line.

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Pistol Play-action bootleg to Reed for 4. UNC expected run. Corner remembered being burned by Owens before so he peeled off deep. Reed nice job to stay inbounds. Bubble to Owens for 5.5 Ponder sneak 1st down.

I-Formation, end around action to Chris Thompson for 1. Didn't like getting into the I-formation here. Not at all. One of the lone criticisms I have. Then FSU gets back in the run and runs a great play:

This is essentially play-action QB wrap. FSU is pulling the right tackle, #77 Zebrie Sanders. Ponder fakes the lead sweep, and is going to keep the ball. Excellent job by sanders to blast #52, who was certainly in the backfield much sooner than he expected. Excellent reaction. The rest is Ponder getting 6-7 yards to build momentum before getting the 1st down, which killed more clock.

Back in the I-formation, don't like it. Thompson for 3. FSU not a good I-formation team. 2nd and 7, qb draw for 2. 3rd and 5, QB draw from 5 wide. Eh. Punt, UNC has little time and they can't throw.

Overall Review

Ponder is simply amazing. I'll have an article on him tomorrow. The only QB who is on his level right now is Jimmy Claussen. Fisher called him the best QB in the country. Jake Locker has better physical talents but a ten-cent head right now. McCoy doesn't quite have the wheels or the arm and McCoy looks to the sidelines for his checks. Ponder calls his own game and checks. Tebow might be playing himself out of the draft. Mallet has the huge arm but not the accuracy or intelligence. And Bradford has a bum wing. Sam is brittle. Fisher gives him 3 plays and he checks the offense into the most favorable before the snap. That's a huge advantage. Few teams in college can do that. Ponder showed good arm strength and seems to be all the way back from his knee injury. His throws were on the money at a ridiculous clip. He took very few risks. Nary a ball was close to being intercepted.

It was a miraculous comeback for Florida State and the star was Christian Ponder. The Junior quarterback went 33-40 for 395 yards and 3 Touchdowns with zero interceptions. He was pinpoint and could have easily thrown for 450 yards had he not been victimized by 3 drops and an offensive pass interference call. Ponder might be the best quarterback in the country. You'd be hard-pressed to find one who is playing better. Considering the opponent and situation, Ponder's performance was one for the ages. He posted a QB rating of 190 (NFL equivalent of 133). Ponder finished the game 16-16 for 236 yards.

Jermaine Thomas should probably get the ball more. He has good hands and does a nice job running, but he and all of the backs must run harder. Still, Thomas never lost yards. Chris Thompson for the most part ran hard in the 2nd half. Both backs did a nice job in their blitz pickup. I am not impressed those two or Pryor when it comes to run blocking. I pretty much hate Pryor in the fullback spot. Fisher knows more than me, by a ton, but he needs to quit using Pryor at fullback. He's just not a good player at that spot.

Receivers Rod Owens and Bert Reed has big games. Owens with his 9 catch 199 yard night. Owens was targeted 10 times. He caught 9 balls. 8 of those were successes. 7 of the successes went for a 1st down or a touchdown. His catches were meaningful. Reed was targeted 10 times. He caught 8 balls. 5 of the 8 were not what I consider a "success", but some were tough yards. 3 were very successful. He also made some very tough catches. 74 yards total. Reed also had a false start! Easterling wasn't thrown to much, but he did draw coverage and did his job. His TD catch was nice, and he didn't flinch much knowing he could get hit big. Fortson showed his flashes of brilliance but balanced those with some untimely drops. He caught 4 balls for 56 yards. 3 of the catches were very big. But he was also called for a hold, dropped 2 balls, and his imprecise route on his middle screen was inexcusable. Fortson can be a huge weapon and is the most talented offensive player outside Ponder, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

As for the offensive line. I thought they played well. Again, consider what they were asked to do and against whom they were asked to perform. UNC's front-7 is exceptional. Anyone watching them play could see that. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2. That's a stellar 4.8% sack rate allowed. FSU trailed for 55 of the 60 minutes in this game, and UNC knew they would pass and pass. That makes the line's play all the more impressive. Oh, and FSU often left no backs or tight ends in to protect. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is always technically sound and plays a good game. His pass protection was good. I bet he graded out highly. On the inside zone play to his side, Datko does a nice job of influencing his man and then removing him. He's not impressive physically and needs to be more aggressive, but there isn't a better true sophomore I've seen. Rodney Hudson is rock solid. I love to watch him play. He'll play a perfect game before all is over. Center Ryan McMahon played a much better game than I expected. His pass protection was good. Spurlock is aggressive as always. He mixes great blocks with whiffs. I give him high marks for his work against 1st round lock Marvin Austin. Zebrie continues to improve and you should remember he is a true sophomore. I wish I could give Sanders some of Spurlock's aggressiveness. Sanders must get better at cutting the backside on the run plays.

Jimbo Fisher's Florida State Offense Saves Seminoles from Embarrassing Defensive Effort as FSU Storms Back to Beat UNC, 30-27

FSUncensored — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:43:02 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Florida State obliterated the even the worst numbers that Carolina's stellar defense had allowed all season. The 'Noles put up 45% more yards per play than anyone else had against the Tar Heels, and they did it in Chapel Hill, on a Thursday Night. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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The 'Nole's offense has to be getting pretty tired of this. 34 points at home against Miami and lose. 54 points against BYU and the game never felt comfortable until midway through the 3rd quarter. 44 points and over 520 yards of offense against Georgia Tech in Tallahassee and yet another loss. Losses against excellent defenses in Boston College and South Florida in which Florida State's defense allowed 4 plays of 70+ yards to putrid offenses.

On Thursday night, Florida State traveled to face off against one of the finest defenses and worst offenses in the country. North Carolina's defense came into the game ranked 10th, their offense 99th. FSU's offense entered the game ranked 8th, their defense 101st. Florida State knew coming into the game that reaching 21 points would be a huge accomplishment against the ferocious North Carolina defense that features multiple future early NFL draft picks. It would be up to FSU's defense to make UNC's horrible offense look, well, horrible.

But in the back of their mind, Florida State had to know that their defense would be a colossal disappointment. UNC hadn't rushed for more than 4 yards per carry against anyone. Against Florida State, the Tar Heels averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 38 rushes, totaling 255 yards! Yes, the 'Noles allowed 70% more yards per carry to the Tar Heels than any other team. 6.7 yards allowed per carry is unacceptable for any defense, but for Florida State's defense, against this putrid offense? It would be up to Florida State's offense to again carry the defense; a seemingly impossible task against Carolina's defense.

Or so it seemed...

[click "continue reading". If you read this last night, click refresh because we added a lot of content.]

Florida State started slow. A drop and a rash of penalties hurt the 'Nole's offense early. It didn't help that North Carolina put the pressure on, marching 80 yards for a touchdown on their opening drive, something they had not done all season. The Tar Heel crowd was into it. Down 17-3 in the 2nd quarter, Bobby Bowden called for a field goal on 4th and 3. Florida State head coach in waiting/ Offensive Coordinator Jimbo Fisher looked disgusted.The 'Noles were down 17-6 going into the locker room at halftime.

Florida State would get the ball at half, however, and they went 3 and out. Carolina took the ball 45 yards on 6 plays for the touchdown.

At this point, it would be helpful to point out just how bad the FSU defense was, and you need to remember how terrible Carolina's offense is.

UNC Offensive Performance					1
Opponent	at UCONN	ECU	Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Opponent Defenisve Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	54th	98th	60th	27th	101
Plays	67	63	44	59	68
Yards Per Play	4.1	6.9	3.5	2.9	4.9
Rushes	29	37	17	21	38
Yards/ Rush	2.4	4	1.4	2.3	6.7
Passing Plays	38	26	27	38	30
Yards/ Pass Play	5.4	11	5.9	3.3	2.7

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
FSU allowed 40% more yards per play to Carolina than Carolina had gained against any other ACC defense.
FSU allowed 190% more per rush to Carolina than the Tar Heels had gained against any other ACC defense.
Carolina's 24 points were more than double their best output of the year against an ACC team
Carolina had yet to crack 175 total yards against any ACC defense. They not only cracked 175, but cracked 200, 225, 250, 275, 300, and 325! Carolina had 338 yards against Florida State!
Carolina had 8 running plays of 15+ yards!

So FSU punted, Carolina scored, 24-6. The FSU's offense, averaging about 4.4 yards per play (which we will see in a minute was not terrible against Carolina), kicked it into another gear. It was a gear FSU fans have seen before against Miami and BYU and Georgia Tech, but many didn't think the 'Noles could shift into that gear on the road, down 18 points, with 25 minutes to play, against an elite defense. But they did.

FSU took the ball and marched 76 yards on 14 plays for a touchdown. 24-13. The North Carolina's quarterback T.J. Yates got greedy and launched a ball for the endzone, not within 15 yards of his receiver. Florida State's Jamie Robinson caught it and was down at the 'Nole's own 3. It was like a punt, a very effective punt. Florida State then false started. Backed up on their own 2 yard line, FSU called a hitch-n-go to Rod Owens. Owens had killed UNC on the previous drive with short catches, and UNC corner Charles Brown bit on the play. From his end zone, Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder lofted a beautiful pass to Owens who avoided getting tripped up and raced 98 yards for the Florida State score. It tied for the longest pass pass in Florida State history, and the 'Noles were within 4 points, 24-20.

UNC's offense stalled on the next drive as FSU's defense finally made the Tar Heels offense look like what they are- garbage. An 11-play 54-yard march ensued, culminating in a field goal after tight end Beau Reliford misread a block and cut outside, when an inside cut on a beautifully designed and timely called tight end screen play would have netted 20+ yards.

At 24-23, UNC stopped passing entirely. They marched 78 yards on 10 plays, ALL RUNS, and foolishly settled for a field instead of going for 4th and inches at the Florida State 19 yard line. That stupidly conservative decision made it 27-23, but it would prove to be costly. The 'Nole's offense took over at their own 37 after a short kick. They calmly marched 63 yards on 4 plays for the touchdown, 30-27 'Noles.

The pressure was on UNC and they couldn't sustain a good drive, despite marching the ball from their own 29 to FSU's 46. A foolish punt went for a touchback, allowing Florida State to take over at their own 20. The 'Noles chewed the clock from 4:10 to 0:47 on 8 plays, including a brilliant QB sweep call that fooled the Tar Heel's defense.

The Heels took over with 0:47, no timeouts, and 79 yards needed for a score, 54 for a realistic chance at a field goal. They couldn't get it done. The Heel's strength tonight was their run game, and with 0:47 and no timeouts left, that wasn't going to work. Neither did play-action. They went only 17 yards on 8 plays to end the game.

And while the receivers did have 3 drops, they also made some phenomenal catches and played extremely well. Senior Rod Owens, Ponder's former roommate, caught 9 balls for 198 yards. Bert Reed caught 9 for 79. In all, 8 different players caught balls.

Let's use a quick chart to put this in perspective. Just how good was FSU's performance? To find out, you must compare it to the other teams who played the Heels:

Team v. UNC's Defense	at UCONN	ECU	at Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Rank of Offense	49	62	2	56	8
Plays	61	61	77	68	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.2	3.8	6.7
Rushes	31	28	65	37	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7	2.3
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31	41
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8	9.2

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-Downs are not included as they are not a competitive play.
Carolina's defense hasn't allowed anyone to gain more than 5.2 yards per play. FSU put up 6.7 yards per play. Doesn't seem like much? Think again. Florida State gained 30% more yards per play than anyone else had on the Tar Heel's defense. And they did it in North Carolina, on a Thursday night.
1st team to crack 410 yards against UNC’s defense (438), and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA. Georgia Tech had 406, but they did it in Atlanta, and did it on 85 plays. FSU did it on 15 fewer plays. That's about 20% fewer snaps for FSU, but a lot more yards and as shown above, a lot more yards per play.
1st team to put 30 points on UNC’s defense and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels boxscore (Note, this isn't adjusted for sacks of kneeldowns, etc)

What did we learn?

No offense has scored more points against Miami than FSU.
Florida State's 54 points against BYU is 26 more than the next closest effort by any other team against the Cougars.
Fisher's offense dropped 44 on Georgia Tech; no other team has even cracked 35 on the Jackets, and the one who cracked 30 was Mississippi State who did it in garbage time (31 points).
And you saw the figures from above. FSU put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else did against UNC. And of course they set new season highs for points allowed and yards allowed by UNC.

Also, Ponder is a Heisman candidate. Seriously, is there a better QB right now? Tebow's not playing better. Neither is McCoy. I'll give you Claussen, maybe.

There aren't 20 defenses in the country worse than FSU. Literally, they belong outside the top 100. They are probably worse than even the most pessimistic of fans realize. Every team sets their season high against FSU's defense!

Miami's season high for points, yards, and yards per play, against a D1 team? You guessed it, the 38 point effort @ Florida State
BYU set their season high for yards per play (8.9) against... Florida State
Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest held Boston College to 1.1, 2.9, and 5.4 yards per play, respectively. FSU allowed them 7.1 yards per play, again, a season high against D1 competition.
USF's offense is horrible, ranked #94, and FSU allowed them to set their season high against D1 competition in yards per play at 6.0. What's worse is that USF ran the prevent offense in the 3rd quarter.
And UNC, well, you saw the figures above. FSU's defense did do better than #99 ranked East Carolina, but then again, that's East Carolina.

What does this mean?

We'll discuss this more in-depth over the weekend, but realistically, not much. FSU is still in an uphill battle to win the ACC Atlantic, though they probably are heavily favored to make a bowl game.

Processing the Results: Florida State's Offense v. USF's Defense

FSUncensored — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 08:30:26 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State wide receiver Rod Owens, center, fumbles the ball as he is hit by South Florida's Jerome Murphy, left, during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. South Florida defensive end Craig Marshall, right, recovered the fumble. It was one of many errors FSU committed on offense. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

NOTE: While I know that everyone expects a huge Bowden rant, you won't get that today. I've shared my concerns for over a year now and had done so long before I was blessed with this public forum from which I can share my views. I will give a quick synopsis, however. Bowden has crippled this program for almost a decade. His selfish actions have stifled every attempt FSU has made at progress. The university has placated him at every bogus request. Bowden doesn't care about FSU, but only about himself and his family. He doesn't care about making FSU great. I'm sort of numb to it now, but those inside the program who were once staunchly silent are finally fed up and are sharing what really goes on inside the program with people they'd formerly never even consider speaking. Bowden's house of cards could finally come crashing down if some things don't change. I have no idea why this loss was the one to push folks over the top. I wish they would have seen the light much earlier and it makes me really question how much some of the big players care about Bowden more than the football program until it became a completely untenable position to hold. They can, however, still cause the change this program has required for nine years. I really wish he would let Jimbo Fisher do his job because right now Bowden is interfering with playcalling and day to day operations much more than I realized. It's safe to say that everything Bowden does is counterproductive to the short and long-term health of the football program because it is taking away a decision making opportunity from someone who is actually informed enough to make a qualified decision. Florida State cannot be above "good" because they have no leadership structure. The best coaches on the staff are consistently overruled on important decisions by the absolute worst coaches who band together against the coaches who will actually be at Florida State when Bowden leaves. Florida State has the worst current head coach in the country, and they are paying him 2.5 Million dollars. And then he had the gall to laugh off the loss in the most embarrassing post-game press conference I have ever seen. Don't expect different results unless you have a reason behind the changed expectations.

I am calling this series "Processing the Results" because results are only repeatable if the process justifies them. The defensive review will be up later tonight.

	Good Process	Poor Process
Good Result	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.	Team was lucky , future poor process unlikely to yield similar good results.
Bad Result	Team was unlucky, future good process unlikely to yield similar bad results.	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.

So my goal in these will be to determine whether FSU's result justified their "process" (aka how they played). Anyone can just say "14 points, great defense", or "7 points, bad offense." They might be right, but I would like to make sure they are correct.

Let's start by pointing out something. The run game was bad, but it wasn't nearly as bad as some think it was. The box score says FSU had 27 runs for 19 yards. That is just not true. FSU had 22 runs for 63 yards. the box score didn't lie, but you have to know what to look for, and the discrepancy comes from sacks. Sacks are the result of a failed pass play. They aren't a run play and shouldn't be included in run plays when judging the efficacy of a rushing attack.

In the same vien, the passing game was not 25-37 for 269 yards, 7.3 per pass play. That's an incomplete picture. They really ran 42 pass plays for 224 yards, of 5.4 yards per play.

	Traditional Box Score	Smart Box Score
Rushing Plays	27	22
Rushing Yards	19 (0.7)	63 (2.9)
Pass Pays	37	42
Passing Yards	269 (7.2)	226 (5.4)

From here on out, I won't acknowledge people who continue to reference the run game as gaining 0.7 yards per carry. It's completely disingenuous after being presented with this information. I am not going to ban those who do, but if they cite that heavily flawed measure, I will ignore their argument.

Quarterback Play

I thought Christian Ponder played very well, given the circumstances, outside of the screen game (see below). His MCL injury was worse than anyone at FSU would publicly admit. The press-releases done by FSU sports information have been easily cracked. If the star QB isn't listed, he's injured and didn't practice. It happened last year and also the year before. Ponder did not practice Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, as I suspected. I have heard various reports on Ponder already this week. Some said he looked good in practice today and his knee is getting better, but there's also a nasty rumor that he injured his other knee Saturday and is considering season ending surgery. Keep in mind that I do not believe the second rumor, but is is absolutely something to keep an eye on.

Two of the plays Ponder made that impressed me most were actually not successful. The first was the 42 yard bomb he threw to Fortson while jumping and falling out of bounds. That's NFL arm strength, something he did not show last year. Unfortunately, a phantom holding call on Datko wiped it out. The other play was the long throw to Goodman that Rich dropped. Really nice escapability and again, he made a difficult contorted throw, on the money, with a bum knee. Goodman was initially interfered with but he absolutely must make that catch. It was a blown opportunity.

I discussed the screen game below, and thought the quick and screen game was the area of the passing game in which he showed his injury the most. He was excellent on his non-screen throws, however, and part of the screen stuff is clearly not on him.

When the protection was there, he was great. The screen game was not great, and FSU didn't block the quick game worth a damn, but man oh man was the dropback game good when the protection was there. I thought he threw some great balls into tight coverage. It's an encouraging sign that Ponder doesn't have to be super mobile to be a very good QB.

I can't put the fumble on him. It was a complete blown backside protection.

USF clearly didn't respect his ability to run. On the bootleg on the goal line, he had a walk-in touchdown. Normal Ponder runs that ball in and puts FSU up 7-0. Instead, he threw it to Reliford after hesitating and it was tipped away. I also thought you could see some evidence of the injury in the play-action fakes, which weren't nearly as crisp as normal.

I know that some believe the Offensive Line is only good with a mobile quarterback. I think it can help but that it is not a necessity. I did not like some of the choices to use the Pistol, which I believe only works with the QB as a backside run threat, and Ponder just did not pull it and run, so USF didn't respect it. He was used only only two designed run plays- an option keeper and a qb draw. They were both early and I think Fisher did them to make USF think about accounting for them.

Nice job staying patient against conservative zone coverage

Finding a way to attack cover-3. I have to give FSU props for having a consistent play they can go to against cover-3. It's the all-curl from the 2WR 2TE (balanced) alignment. Teams throw a lot of 8 in the box against that, which means FSU will probably see cover-3 much of the time, and they really do a nice job throwing the all-curl. FSU ran this play 6 or 7 times and every time Ponder delivered the ball on the money, as soon as the wideout turned around, and with quality velocity.

Screen and Quick Game Ineffective

FSU threw 13 screens and netted 52 yards. That's really poor- 4 yards per screen pass (pass, not completion). On non-screen passes, FSU gained 9.1 yards per pass (not completion, per pass). Considering that FSU ran only 64 plays, those 13 screens represent almost 20% of the plays called. I'm not saying not to run them, or to run them less, because FSU is typically a great screen team, but they did not run them well last game.

The timing was really off in the screen game. The offensive line did a poor job directing the defense where to go, Ponder was not accurate on the screens (very uncharacteristic, one of the reasons we knew he was off). In particular, he struggled throwing them to his right. That's something to watch for in the coming weeks. The backs and wideouts also did a poor job of giving it away too early.

FSU also struggled in the quick game, surrendering two crushing sacks and allowing Ponder to be hit three other times. I don't get this. USF's DLine played great, but seriously, FSU has to block that better. This has me baffled. The Noles are typically a great quick pass team.

Running Backs

Ty Jones didn't run well. Against BYU he had to bounce a lot of stuff because his read dictated he do so, but this week he seems to expect to bounce to the outside even when the play didn't call for it. Jones missed holes, was only so-so in pass pro, and wasn't the runner we've seen him be. I wonder if the other run schemes are messing him up (see below)? Honestly, he has to score on the 2nd down and goal play. It's right there for him. The bottom line is that Jones is not a dancer and if he pulls a repeat of Saturday, he will be benched.

Jermaine Thomas showed his old style on the 1st quarter run from shotgun with a little over 4 minutes to go. FSU needs to run the zone plays, as I discuss below. I expect him to get a lot more touches.

I was not impressed with Chris Thompson. He missed a hole on a big 3rd and 1 and doesn't understand the scheme yet, it appears. Great kid though and a true talent. The missed 3rd down didn't matter because of a penalty, but it definitely was discussed in film session.

Tavares Pressley didn't have the ball from Ponder on the handoff. Still, I believe he's not ready. It should be Jermaine and Jones, in some order, 90% of the time.

End the Lonnie Pryor Fullback Expiriment

This isn't working. The talent must be utilized better. Don't have a fullback? Run with Two tight ends. The Dallas Cowboys are leading the league in rushing and they rarely use a fullback. Lonnie runs hard. He's a great Seminole, a great kid, and a lifelong fan. But he is a terrible blocking fullback. Putting him in the backfield with a running back allowed USF to have a numerical advantage against run plays without devoting an extra man (I know that doesn't make any sense, but just think about what I am saying for a minute, and you'll get it). Might as well just play with 10 and not 11 guys. He doesn't block anyone. I understand that he isn't ready to play tailback because he's not yet cut out to be a zone runner, but the fullback stuff needs to stop.I don't know why FSU is playing Pryor at fullback. The two-tight end alignment with no full-back is much better and I am disappointed that FSU didn't use that more. It created some spacing issues for USF that the I-formation did not.

Called a bunch of run plays, but checked out of a bunch due to the look.

Wide Receivers

Definitely not their best week. 3 fumbles. Give USF some credit for hitting and hitting. Also USF got away with a lot of downfield contact, but these guys need to just play tougher as a unit. It was a better week with only one major drop, though it was very costly.

I expect Bert Reed to steal a lot of playing time from Rod Owens after this week. Owens did not run good routes like he typically does. Bert did. Bert sat down in zone coverage, caught everything Ponder threw at him, and made plays. Owens cost the team bit with a drop and of course the crippling fumble. Bert played his best game.

Taiwan Easterling did not have a good game either and his fumble simply can't happen. I was disappointed in Easterling and Owens, typically FSU's best route runners, for their lack of focus.

Jarmon Fortson and Richard Goodman had up and down days. Fortson had two nice runs and a beautiful TD catch called back. But we must remember that while fumbles aren't random, fumble recovery/loss is random. It is random. It is random. Not a repeatable skill or result. The only thing a player can control is if he fumbles, not what happens after he fumbles, so Fortson also falls into the group of fumblers. He gets no pass from me for having it fall out of bounds, though he did have it in the correct arm. Fortson also had a major mental lapse in the 3rd quarter and Fisher tore him up on the sidelines.

Goodman dropped a crucial touchdown pass but other than that played decently. I caught him running maybe 1 or 2 lazy routes, but for the most part he was very good.

Line Thoughts

I'm disappointed in them as a group. 5 sacks isn't acceptable, and there were two other plays where Ponder did a remarkable job to escape considering his condition. This was the worst pass protection I have seen in a long time. The run game was similarly disorganized. They really seemed to lack communication.

USF did a great job defeating cut blocks. These guys were really well coached, and are very talented. I have my doubts about other parts of USF's team, but their defensive line is very good. USF's coaches got the most out of their talent. They played in control for the most part.

USF didn't stunt and twist up front a ton, but when they did, FSU's offensive linemen looked clueless. That's the first time I've seen FSU not be able to handle stunts and twists completely. Sure, they were dominated on some other plays, but watching this tape is painful. Of particular concern was the right side, where Sanderson and Spurlock didn't seem to get it at all.

I want to give a lot of credit to #90 Pierre Paul who dominated Sanderson/Sanders and played the game of his life. He's a better player than Selvie. That's one of the better defensive lines in football and they really came to play. It was their super bowl. In the same vein, I wonder if FSU's offense is hurt because the defense they face in practice is so poor. One person I talked with said some of USF's backups would start over FSU's defensive linemen, and all of the starters would start over the Noles guys. If the starting team is that bad, the backups FSU's offensive line faces in practice probably isn't giving them anything approximating a realistic look.

I also heard that Trickett told reporters he messed up and didn't have his guys properly prepared. It was refreshing to hear a coach take responsibility for his actions. He also apparently said that he would have them really ready for Boston College.

Individual Line Performances

Inconsistent holding calls. Left Tackle Datko definitely held Selvie a few times, but I think the two he was flagged for were not worthy of a flag. He didn't play his best game. Selvie clearly has motivation issues and doesn't play hard every game, but he really brought it Saturday. I wonder if it was smart to schedule a talented but erratic team with inconsistent motivational issues, which would definitely get up for a huge game against the Noles?

Left Guard Hudson had a great day. They did a decent job of keeping McClain (best DT) away from him. He did blow the cut block on the first drive on 1st down after the Piurowski 1st down catch, and had a whiff on an outside run player later on, but he was our best offensive lineman (as usual). The Chop Block between him and Datko was really ticky-tack, but if you watch, FSU actually had a really egregious chop on the same play between Sanderson and Spurlock.

Center Ryan McMahon continues to be just okay. I'm not as high on him as most. He just isn't a good player. I don't like having to scheme around the center, but most teams regard their center as their weakest link.

Right Guard David Spurlock is strong and aggressive and sometimes out of control. Flat whiffed on some 2nd level blocks and they abused him with run blitzes.

Backup Right Tackle Rhonnie Sanderson played most of the game. I liked some of what I saw against him but USF's defensive end (not the All-American) had a field day with him in pass protection. He's a valuable asset as a backup to both the guard and tackle positions and could definitely be a really nice starter if someone went down to injury, but Zebrie Sanders is the better player. Unless Sanders was injured, I am disappointed in Trickett playing Sanderson. The miscommunication between Sophomore Spurlock and Freshman Sanderson definitely caused some trouble, in particular dealing with the twists and stunts. Still, Sanders had two crucial missed blocks. The one everyone will point to is on FSU's last play of the game. He absolutely has to get his cut block on USF's #94, and he didn't do it. There's simply no excuse. He just lunged. That's a designed quick pass and FSU is trading the possibility of a long play for what should be a guaranteed 2 1/2 seconds of pocket protection. It didn't happen and Ponder never had a chance. As I said above, USF did a great job having their guys ready for the cut blocks. Maybe they practiced this all the time they were playing the cupcake teams?

Why schedule this game?

As I wrote yesterday, FSU should have never scheduled this game and Athletic Director Randy Spetman should lose his job for setting up this ridiculous schedule. He is not qualified to be an athletic director at a football school, was a lap-dog hire by President T.K. Wetherell, and shouldn't have any long-term future here. This scheduling of west-coast teams also needs to end. If a west coast team wants to play FSU, fine, have them come here and do not reciprocate with a return trip. They'll still go for it. It's unrealistic to expect a football team to be up for every game of the season. It just doesn't happen at any school. Try to tell yourself different, but you are just wrong. The solution is to play enough games for a respectable schedule (UF, Miami every year, and at least 5 other bowl teams does the trick). The three other non-conference games must be guaranteed wins, because they reduce the chance for a team to have a loss in an expected letdown game. Scheduling games where FSU has to get up to win that they don't have to play should never be done. BYU should not have been done and USF definitely shouldn't have been done. Do what other schools do, play one solid out of conference game (UF, done), and then schedule to put yourself in the most advantageous position to win the ACC. It's foolishness. Again, I'd like anyone to show me how Randy Spetman is qualified to be AD. Dave Hart is light years better and is about to be handed the keys to Alabama. I'm really not happy that T.K. went on a wild goose chase to remove Hart and exposed an academic scandal that happens everywhere but would never be reported because no school (outside of FSU) would be dumb enough to report themselves or uncover the extra help.

USF did a great job bringing the run blitzes, particularly in short yardage. I think they picked up on a tendency of Jimbo that I might have missed: not much play-action on short yardage downs. Granted, I like running in short yardage, and hate when teams get cute, but play-action needs to happen once in a while (not against USF necessarily, but in previous games to at least show it). The bootleg would work very well there, though with Ponder's mobility, FSU probably didn't want to risk it.

Please stick with the zone blocking.

I don't know if this is all correct, but some things are bothering me here. I don't fully understand the blocking scheme now. Last year, FSU did a great job as a zone running scheme. It's Rick Trickett's forte. I wrote about this in the off-season. It's what the personnel is built to do. But right now I am not seeing it enough. It's not that enough run plays aren't being called. I'm told that they are in fact, but that Ponder checked out of them against certain looks, as he is supposed to do. No, I think the problem is that FSU isn't running a high enough percentage of their run plays as zone runs. FSU has great zone personnel and needs to do a better job staying comitted to it. I am seeing way too much non-zone stuff right now for my taste. Too many pulling guards (which USF exploited to perfection, by the way, sending run fit blitzes and some twists at really opportune times, shutting down FSU in short yardage almost completely). I particularly don't like the the off-tackle stuff with the pulling guard. It's not that it is a bad play. It's that it takes away the opportunity to run a better play (either inside or outside zone). And of course, if FSU is running that in a game, they are having to use practice time on it, which isn't what I think they should be doing. It means the backs get less opportunities to run in the zone scheme. I noted above that Ty Jones played a bad game, and I have to wonder if they are putting too much on his plate, or any of the backs. Stick with the inside and outside zone plays. Running the toss play once in a while (stuffed every time this year, as FSU doesn't run it very well) is okay, but the primary runs need to be inside and outside zone. I wonder if Fisher is trying to get away from this and get back to more of what he did at LSU. His schemes are solid, but sticking with the zone runs and ditching the other stuff is the right call here in my opinion due to personnel and proven success (last year, best rushing attack in the ACC). Or could it be that Coach Bowden is calling for these out of sequence plays?? (wink). Any time FSU runs a non inside-outside zone play, and run some other inside run play, is a lost opportunity to run the best play.

This was a particular problem down on the goal line sequence. I was totally fine with the first play. Ponder needs to just run the ball in. He walks in on the bootleg with Hudson out there blocking. Instead he was tentative and threw a pass that was batted away. But the 2nd and 4th down plays really annoyed me. Stop all the pulling guard nonsense and stick with what you do well. Instead, FSU pulls guards on both plays and doesn't score. Also, on the 2nd play, Lonnie Pryor shows why he isn't a fullback. I absolutely hated the fullback dive call and think it could have been Bowden interfering with Fisher again.

On FSU's 4th drive of the game (towards end of 2nd quarter), they ran the nice lead zone sweep from two-back shotgun, for 15 and 6 yards, both on 1st down.

I happen to think Fisher is an excellent coach, but I think he will make a much better head coach than an offensive coordinator. Everyone I know who has spoken to or worked with Tight Ends Coach James Coley has been blown away by his football acumen. He'll be the offensive coordinator under Jimbo when Fisher takes the head coaching position, and I think he'll be an upgrade over Fisher, who I think is very good. I just wish he would streamline the run game a bit, though i have my suspicions that coach Bowden is meddling here and demanding some of the toss plays and pulling guard plays. Information from those dissatisfied within the program is starting to flood out. There's no longer a trickle. People are angry that Coach Bowden is tarnishing their future and they are fed up. I expect more and more dirt to come out on Bowden in the coming weeks.

Unacceptable Risk Evaluation (much too conservative)

Finally, FSU needed to go for the 4th and 1 from the 43. Punting, no matter the resulting defensive series, is the incorrect move and I know that some inside the program are extremely unhappy with the call. That's a call made by the head man that directly hurts FSU's chances of winning. Going for it on 4th and goal from the 2 is also the right call, because of the expected points gained from the resulting poor field position for the offense (didn't happen, defense allowed 99 yard drive). On the 4th and 1 from the 43 FSU must trust the common sense approach and go.

Overall

Overall, I would give the offensive process about a C-, which is unacceptable, but the point total doesn't totally reflect how FSU's offense played. FSU's offensive players are generally well coached. They are put in position to make plays. While I've seen Fisher call a much better game, I am told that Bowden had his fingerprints all over this one, and some people with tickets right behind the bench say the offensive staff was visibly upset several times aftet Bowden tried to meddle in the offense. It's not acceptable for someone who is not involved in gameplanning or actual coaching to make the important decisions and then interject himself into playcalling. Between Bowden and the fumbles, there was no shot for any sort of rhythm. 7 points is not acceptable. I think Fisher is a very good OC. He's not the flat out best, but FSU needs to live with very good for another year as Fisher has the qualities of a great head coach in my opinion and he brings in great assistants.

The Final Score: Florida State Seminoles 41 - USF Bulls 24

FrankDNole — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:40:24 -0000

Welcome back to this week's edition of "The Final Score." This is the weekly prediction column that our readers clamor for all week, where we the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation will match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against our readers psychic abilities, or better yet "guesses" for Saturday's FSU expected CASTRATION of the USF Bulls.

Once again many thanks to GonzoNole for his typically brilliant contribution. Next time you see a GonzoNole comment, please thank him for his contributions to this site.

Before going any further, I would like to congratulate loyal Tomahawk Nation reader hopnole23, who last week won the coveted shiny prize for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in FSU's complete emasculation of the BYU Cougars.

Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I thought I would share a few fun facts and tidbits about our Seminole's, now that we are a quarter of the way through the 2009 season. Here are some interesting facts that you may or may not be aware of, and a few notes about this weeks game, which by the way has been officially dubbed and designated by Governor Charlie Crist as the State of Florida's 1st Annual Dyslexia Bowl (FSU vs USF).

Upon returning home after snapping BYU's 18 game home winning streak, our Noles' are back in the national polls and ranked 18th after a two-week absence. This upcoming game will be the first meeting between these two schools, bringing to eight the total number of in-state teams our Noles have faced in our 63-year history. Additionally at this game, we will recognize our 1999 National Championship Team as a part of this season-long, 10-year anniversary celebration of the lone unbeaten team, and the first ever Wire to Wire #1 ranked National Champions.

Though FSU and USF are meeting for the first time, there is a lot of familiarity between the two rosters. A total of 40 players were high school teammates. That’s one player more than the high school ties between the Miami and FSU rosters in this season’s opener. Jacksonville First Coast and Belle Glade Glades Central top the list of connections for this game, with four players each.

HERE ARE SOME OTHER INTERESTING FACTS YOU PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW, BUT ARE WORTH REPEATING.

-Last week against BYU, our quarterbacks, Christian Ponder (21 of 26/80.8 percent) and EJ Manuel (1 of 2/.500 percent) completed 22 of 28 passes for a combined single-game school record 78.6 team completion percentage. The previous record was 78.3 percent (36 of 46) set by Danny Kanell and Thad Busby on September 16, 1995 in a 77-17 victory vs. North Carolina State.

-The 54 points scored against BYU were the most scored by the Noles’ during the 17-game starting career of Ponder against an FBS team, and the most since the Noles’ defeated Western Carolina, 69-0 last year in his first career start.

-FSU scored points in each of the four quarters last week. It marked only the seventh time in the last two seasons that the Seminoles have scored points in each quarter during a game.

-The Noles scored 23 points in the second quarter and that was the most points scored in a single quarter since FSU scored 27 in the third quarter of its victory over Western Carolina to open the 2008 season;

-Ponder was a perfect six of six passing for 75 yards and three touchdowns on third down conversions. Ponder has completed 65.5 percent of this third down passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns in the first three games of the season. Additionally, he has rushed for 62 yards on eight carries and has converted six of nine third down opportunities while carrying the ball in the first three games of the season. Ponder's total 3rd down conversions rate is 19/29, and against BYU the Noles converted 12 of 15 total 3rd down opportunities

-Ponder has completed 61.4 percent of his passes in his last eight starts as compared to his completion percentage of 54.4 percent in the first eight starts of his career. He has completed 63.0 percent of his passes in his last four games as compare to his completion percentage of 50.6 in the first four starts of his career. Finally, he has attempted 33.3 passes per game in his last four starts as compared to 19.8 pass attempts per game in the first four starts of his career.

Our little boy has come a long way, has grown up, and is now a man.

-During the summer, Jimbo promised us more tight end involvement and he has kept his word. Our quarterbacks completed seven passes to three different tight ends last week. Ponder completed five passes for 38 yards and one touchdown to Caz Piurowski and one pass for six yards for Beau Reliford. EJ Manuel completed the first pass of his career to sophomore Ja’Baris Little who was lined up at the tight end position on the play, and it was the first time since Nov. 10, 1990 against Cincinnati that three Seminole tight ends (Reggie Johnson, Warren Hart and Dave Roberts) caught a pass in the same game. Caz has caught 10 passes for 149 yards (both career season-best), five of those catches have moved the chains, and seven have come on touchdown drives. Caz has 2 TD receptions so far and his 53-yard reception against Jax St is the longest of the season for any FSU player, and the longest by a Nole tight end since Lonnie Johnson (78 yds. vs. Clemson, 1993).

-Ty Jones got his first career 100-yard rushing game (108 yards on 12 carries and one touchdown) and it marked the first time since our victory over Miami in 2008 that Florida State had rushed for more than 300 yards in a single game (310). It also marked the first time since that Miami game that we have outrushed our opponent by more than 200 yards in a single game (310-51/+259). In addition, it was only the 6th time since the beginning of the 2000 season that FSU has rushed for 300 yards or more. We are undefeated in each of those six games.

-Our Noles held the ball for 39:51 of the 60 minutes (65.8 percent of the game) and this overwhelming time of possession advantage led to the Cougars running only 53 offensive plays. It was the fewest offensive plays allowed by the Noles’ defense since limiting Duke to 50 in a 25-6 win on Oct. 27, 2007.

-The Noles were a perfect eight of eight on scoring chances from inside the red zone against BYU (seven touchdowns and one FG) and we have converted 10 consecutive red zone opportunities.

-In a total of 77 offensive plays against BYU, the Noles only had two negative yardage plays (one rushing and one receiving). Ironically, the negative rushing play came by a receiver on a rushing attempt (Bert Reed – minus one yard on a first quarter) and the negative passing play came by a running back on a pass reception (Ty Jones– minus one yard on a third quarter pass).

-Ponder completed 21 of 26 passes and was interception-free for the fourth time in his last six starts. He has not been intercepted in eight of his 16 career starts. The Seminoles are undefeated (8-0) when Ponder completes a game without throwing an interception.

-The Noles are averaging only 6.6 penalties in the first 3 games and if they can maintain, we are on pace to be the least penalized Florida State team since 1995.

-Dustin Hopkins either kicked seven of his nine kickoffs out of the end zone, or where downed in the end zone, and only 2 kickoffs were returned for a total of 23 yards.

-Through the first three games, 11 true freshmen have seen action.

Enough of the past, it's time to get on with the USF predictions, after you hit the jump.

OK, let's get it on.

BEFORE HEADING BACK TO TAMPA AFTER THE SEMINOLES CASTRATION OF THE USF BULLS, THIS DEPRESSED USF FAN BIDS FAREWELL TO WHAT IS LEFT OF HIS BULLS TEAM.

AND FOR THOSE OF YOU FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO ATTEND THE GAME, PLEASE HAVE A BALL.

This week it is a unanimous decision, and all of us authors are now kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, and GOOD GUYS.

Last week the BAD GUYS learned their lesson, were ridiculed, were humiliated, and the final slap to their faces occurred when ESPN called each one and offered all of them jobs predicting scores for the ESPN College Gameday program. They have since repented, and since they seem sincere we have allowed them to continue on as part of the staff here at TN, but they have been advised that they are on notice.

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - USF 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 42 - USF 13

-oline0175= FSU 38 -USF 24

-MattDNole= FSU 37 - USF 21

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - USF 24

-Nattylite= FSU 42 - USF 31

-FSUSOM= FSU 52 - USF 31
-Fsued= FSU 30 - USF 17

-TrueCubbie= FSU 43 - USF 28

-pbysh= FSU 34 - USF 21

-SWFLNole= FSU 45 - USF 28

-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - USF 24

And finally,

FSUn= TBA in the upcoming Game Preview.

Now we are eager to learn what the most knowledgeable Nole fans on any of the FSU boards expect the final score to be for this game. Once again, the prize will be something shiny which will be given for the closest prediction (not spread) to the final score. At the end of the season, the reader (or author) who has won the most Shiny Awards will receive the grand prize, a much larger and shinier prize.

Finally, in our attempt to broaden our readers horizons, I leave with a short video clip which will come in very handy for the Nole fans following the game.

SB Nation - Bert Reed

Florida State v. Maryland Highlights & Press Conference Notes

Florida State Pulls Out 29-26 Win Over Maryland

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

Florida State Football Performance Report 11.17.09

The Streak Is Over!

Previewing the FSU Offense

Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

What did we learn?

Drive #1

Drive #2

Drive # 3

Drive #4:

Drive # 5:

Drive # 6

Drive # 7

Drive # 8

Drive # 9:

Drive # 10:

Drive # 11:

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Overall Review

Jimbo Fisher's Florida State Offense Saves Seminoles from Embarrassing Defensive Effort as FSU Storms Back to Beat UNC, 30-27

What did we learn?

What does this mean?

Processing the Results: Florida State's Offense v. USF's Defense

Quarterback Play

Nice job staying patient against conservative zone coverage

Screen and Quick Game Ineffective

Running Backs

End the Lonnie Pryor Fullback Expiriment

Wide Receivers

Line Thoughts

Individual Line Performances

Why schedule this game?

Please stick with the zone blocking.

Unacceptable Risk Evaluation (much too conservative)

Overall

The Final Score: Florida State Seminoles 41 - USF Bulls 24

STOP RIGHT THERE! I GOTTA KNOW RIGHT NOW, BEFORE WE GO ANY FURTHER. WHAT'S IT GONNA BE BOY?