SB Nation - Kevin McNeil

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

Processing the Result: USF's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:03:03 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State's Defense didn't hold down USF, the Bulls stopped themselves, and that doesn't bode well for the Seminoles' defense in future games. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

I'll start this with a few caveats. FSU's defensive coaching staff is a mess. Legendary defensive Mickey Andrews wanted to retire after 2007 (after his son Ronnie died unexpectedly), but was begged back by the old guard. He wanted to retire after 2008, but was begged back by Jimbo Fisher so that Bobby Bowden wouldn't make the disastrous move of promoting Chuck Amato to defensive coordinator. I won't speak ill of Mickey often, because he's been a great Nole, never selfish, and even in this his worst season ever (to date), he is doing FSU a greater service than most know by blocking Chuck Amato from taking the defensive coordinator position. It's thought that Bowden would have been allowed to name Amato as DC if Mickey had retired after last season, but not if he stayed on for this season and then retired. The ability to hire the defensive staff seems to rest on Jimbo. it would be silly to allow Bowden, a man who will be here for only one more season, to bring in the defensive staff he wants for only 12 games, and then make Fisher put the team through another coaching change (their third defensive coordinator in three years). For the administration to do anything but allow Fisher to select the defensive staff after Mickey retires this off-season (and he is retiring), would be to send a message that they simply do not care about the football program. If that happened, I would expect a string of bad seasons and a half-decade long rebuilding job following 2010. But I am told that will not happen. Fisher will be allowed to select the defensive staff and leave Bowden with no friends on staff. So Mickey doesn't want to be here. Amato is doing everything short of outright sabotage to hurt Fisher and tarnish his image. Amato is the evil on this team, while Bowden is the one enabling him and worse yet, trusting him. He also isn't coaching within the confines of Mickey's defense, and is telling kids things which run counter to what Andrews wants. Defensive Ends coach Jody Allen is one of the worst football coaches anywhere, and his continued employment is a joke. He's also rumored to have lost or chipped two teeth recently after an offensive coach, finally fed up with his inappropriate practice antics, hauled off and punched him in practice. Oh, and under Bowden's watch in 2006 and 2007, the defensive recruiting was completely horrible and without any rhyme or reason, so there are serious depth issues with the defense. Take zero defensive depth plus horrible coaching from coaches who are either has beens or never was', some of whom are more consumed with goading other members of the coaching staff than coaching their own position group and some who just don't want to be there, and you have a recipe for the worst Florida State defense in over a quarter century.

I am calling this series "Processing the Results" because results are only repeatable if the process justifies them.

	Good Process	Poor Process
Good Result	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.	Team was lucky , future poor process unlikely to yield similar good results.
Bad Result	Team was unlucky, future good process unlikely to yield similar bad results.	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.

So my goal in these will be to determine whether FSU's result justified their "process" (aka how they played). Anyone can just say "14 points, great defense", or "7 points, bad offense." They might be right, but I would like to make sure they are correct.

In this case, this was bad process, good result. Simply put, USF should have scored a lot more points, and it wasn't FSU that kept them from doing so. I'll explain why. I am quite concerned about this result, because it gives a false sense of self confidence. USF should have scored 35 points. In the preview I wrote:

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Daniels' above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. FSU must force Daniels to be accurate and drive, not allow the big play. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

And FSU allowed 14 points, but their play was much worse. USF missed two crucial field goals. They had guys running wide open all through the secondary, and Daniels just didn't see them, or overthrew them, or USF dropped the balls (like the wide open 45 yarder). After watching the tape, I was amazed at just how poorly Daniels read the defense. This does not bode well for future games. I can't honestly say that FSU's defense played any better in this game than they did against Miami or BYU. Sure, the points allowed was better, but USF's offense is not very good.

Time for a Youth Movement in the Secondary

As for the secondary players, let's start with Korey Mangum. We sure see # 22 running after wideouts who are on their way for 70+ yard TD's, but this is again process v. results v. prudent moves for the future of the program. Mangum didn't blow the coverages on those two long touchdowns, and he didn't blow the coverage on the long dropped pass either. So don't blame him for those plays. But there were other plays in which he busted coverages and Daniels just didn't hit the open receiver. I've seen enough of Mangum. He's not a good player. He might be better right now than some of the young players FSU has, but Florida State needs to go with a full youth movement on defense, much like UF did in 2007, before winning it all last season. The rule needs to be "Seniors who aren't significantly better than the underclassmen behind them need to sit the bench. That means Mangum sits the bench, and freshmen JaJuan Harley and Nick Moody play the strong safety/ rover position. Patrick Robinson will continue to play corner, and he is the best corner I have seen this year in college football. So should Ochuko Jenijie, because he is a lot better than most of you think, and will be a starter next year. Still, young guys like Dionte Allen (who blew the coverage on the long bomb along the sideline) should rorate with Jenijie. Ditto guys like Terrance Parks, who should rotate some with Jamie Robinson.

As for Greg Reid, I really think this is getting out of control. Greg is good when he can free-lance, but right now he is not ready to play on the base defense. Mickey Andrews was right in his press conference. Reid doesn't play his responsibility and tries to do too much. Until he proves that he can play man-coverage without trying to pay attention to the running game, he can't play on the base defense. That is not a coaching issue, or an experience issue, it's just simply a Greg Reid personal discipline issue. He can continue to be good in the underneath Nickel coverage, but even there, Reid gambles a lot and committed at least two pass interference penalties.

Yet I worry about a conflict of interest. Mickey Andrews is a prideful man, and with this being his last season, I can see, for personal reasons, why he would not want to go with a youth movement. But the real problem there, is of course, Bobby Bowden, who is again making decisions which are solely to benefit himself but counter to the interests of the program.

Run Defense is the Root of the Problem as Front-7 Size Rears its Ugly Head

I think a lot of the problems on defense, outside of the coaching and the lack of depth, is the complete inability to stop the run. The problem is still there, even if the results in the first two games didn't show it. We just didn't see it as often in the first two D1 games. Against Miami, FSU loaded up against the run and Miami, anticipating this, threw the ball on first down all over the defense. BYU wasn't much of a run team. But Jax State did a great job with the 11-man run game considering their personnel, and USF had a field day with it. I preached about this all summer, but if you weren't here, or need a refresher, here is part one and part two. Simply put, FSU's defensive scheme is outdated, depending only on speed, completely lacking in size, too dependent on their defensive backs to assist with the run game, which against a modern defense isn't realistic, and is now exploited by those modern offenses, even in their simplest forms. FSU's defensive backs aren't as bad as you think they are. The pressure on them is enormous, and their focus is divided on the run game, when they should be focusing on the pass because of the man coverage FSU asks them to play demands their undivided attention. So what do you do, allow the defense to be run on? It's just an impossible situation.

Let's take a look at the traditional box score against what really happened:

	Traditional Box Score	Smart Box Score
Rushing Plays	42	37
Rush Yards	153 (3.6)	187 (5.05)
Pass Plays	21	23
Pass Results	215 (10.2)	189 (8.2)

The change here is that the two sacks are counted as the failed result of a passing play in the Smart Box Score, as it should be. I also removed the QB Kneeldowns to end the game. Those are not contested plays.

187 rushing yards on 37 plays for USF is scary. It's over 5 yards per carry. USF's Offensive Line is Garbage. These guys did not impress me, but they dominated FSU's defensive line and linebackers outside of Nigel Bradham (I'll discuss him later). FSU's defensive line got worked by a bad offensive line, and that does not bode well for the future. FSU's defense was exposed by the 11-man rushing attack last season, by some very average offensive coaches, and it is continuing this season. I'll venture to say that FSU will face better offensive lines against Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Florida. The others will be about the same.

And the problem started on 1st down, where USF rushed 19 times, The result: -4, -2 (bad snap), 0, 1, 1, 2 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 44 On first down, when everyone knew USF wanted to run, they ran with success.

And in 2nd and long, FSU routinely let USF set up 3rd and shot, or just convert the play into a 1st down. 2nd down & Long Runs

Distance	Result
7	4
10	29
7	7
7	2
7	8
14	0
12	1
13	14
7	5

So on nine 2nd and long runs, USF gained a first down 4 times, and set up 3rd and short twice. FSU's rush defense failed 6 of 9 times to stop the run on 2nd and long.

As a whole, FSU's front-7 is very poorly coached and the lack of depth is really beginning to show. Again, we shouted about this for the entire off-season, much to the annoyance of many doubters. They fail to play inside out, with solid leverage. They overrun plays. Chuck Amato's freedom system is really hurting this linebacker corps. Amato brought the freedom system back with him after Kevin Steele left, and it basically entails just preaching intensity and making plays over technique, play recognition, and discipline. It was a complete abortion of an idea. FSU's linebackers already made tons of plays, but anyone with half a clue knows that big plays are mostly based on situational factors, not just trying to make them. Amato grew up coaching when FSU had a huge talent advantage over almost every opponent, and when it wasn't popular to expose over-aggressive defensive players via misdirection and the like. He has no idea how to teach linebackers right now, not that he even wants to, but he doesn't teach the players play recognition. The big plays aren't happening for the defense because the guys are out of position. It's complete guesswork on their part. Kevin Steele was a details freak. FSU's linebackers took much better pursuit angles under him. They shed blocks, while now, Amato has them just trying to run around blocks, which doesn't work against the modern offense. They have to play with good inside-out leverage, and it is clear that taking on blocks and playing with that leverage is not being taught in practice.

FSU's defense did the exact opposite of what I called for:

To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. It's not about getting around the blocker and to Daniels, it is about collapsing the pocket and then reacting once he scrambles. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

And that did not happen. FSU routinely lost contain and did not play with intelligence.

As for individual performances, I'll run through them quickly. Markus White is average at best, has no rush moves, and is really a guy who is hurt by Jody Allen's lack of coaching (he never played defensive end or even defense, yet was promoted by Bobby to the position because of familiarity). He also tries to jump around blocks instead of taking them on, stoning them, and shedding them. Kevin McNeil is extremely lazy, and it's sad because he had a chance to play in the league. If FSU had any sort of depth in the defensive front seven (short about 8 players), McNiel would have to work harder or risk losing his starting spot. His late hit penalty was inexcusable, and it was a direct result of him being lazy in the first few seconds of the play. You can tell that McDaniel is more injured than the reports indicated, and FSU is having to use Everette Dawkins at DT. Give Dawkins credit, he played really hard and even made a few plays. I expect him to be a good player eventually, hopefully at defensive end. He should be at end, in a perfect world, but with FSU's lack of depth at defensive tackle last week, they needed him to play. Jamar Jackson isn't any good and I don't expect much out of him. Toshmon seems to have some potential, but he is way too small right now.

I am really disappointed in some of the linebacker play. It's really Nigel Bradham and then everyone else. Bradham plays out of his mind. He takes on blocks and it must just be an innate ability, because it's clearly not being taught to the other backers. His series towards the end of the game, He is the only decent player in the front seven. Dekoda Watson is playing really, really soft. Kendal Smith is terrible and should probably sit the bench in favor of Nigel Carr. Maurice Harriss doesn't impress me much.

The bottom line is that FSU couldn't stop USF's running game, when the Noles had 3 linebackers in the game and USF had 4 wide receivers in.

And if you want more proof as to FSU's run defense being the real problem, I have that for you. Now, remember that USF went way conservative. FSU'd DB's are just too concerned with the run, but they have to be because the run defense is so bad.

In 2nd and 3rd and long situations, FSU's pass defense was excellent, because they didn't have to worry about the run as much. The DB's really are not that bad. It's the front-7.

2nd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
23	Sack
10	Incomplete
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete
10	Incomplete
10	INTerception
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete

3rd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
7	Sack
10	Incomplete
5	Incomplete
6	INTerception
15	Sack
7	8 yards

That's dominance. This defense is made to play the pass. They just can't stop the run at all.

Strategy Concerns, etc.

I don't want to give away stuff that would hurt the team, though I suspect every other team already knows what i would say. FSU really struggles against any kind of trips alignment. I've seen it for about three years now. The adjustments are much too slow. The coverage checks are obvious and predictable. Georgia Tech is going to kill them on that just as they did last year.

Oh, and the interceptions weren't forced, they were just really dumb throws.

USF basically gave up towards the end of the game, running the same 3-4 plays over and over again. It was depressing. They didn't even try anything risky in the 2nd half.

In closing, the play of the Seminoles defense doesn't suggest this result is not likely to be repeated. FSU's coaches don't have the ability to remedy this now, and they definitely can't make up for two years of poor recruiting in 2006 and 2007.

Can the Noles defense make any adjustments for the Boston College game? I'll tackle that tomorrow.

Florida State Defensive End Kevin McNeil Makes the Grade and is Eligible to Play for the 'Noles!

FSUncensored — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 00:33:47 -0000

Florida State Senior Defensive End Kevin McNeil made the needed grade in summer school and will be on the field for the 'Noles this fall. He is slated to start for FSU.

View full size photo »

The Seminole nation breathes a collective sigh of relief tonight. We have been informed that after a week of suspense over Florida State Defensive End Kevin McNeil's eligibility, his facebook status now reads:

Kevin Mcneil 95 is back fb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is pretty surprising news. McNeil needed to make good grades in his summer classes to remain eligible for the Fall season. He was thought to be a grades risk after electing to give up a full year of eligibility (making him a junior last year instead of a sophomore), rather than serving a three game suspension for his involvement in the much publicised academic cheating scandal. Many believe the reason for the choice was the unlikelihood that McNeil could stay eligible for three years, and thus he chose the option to play as much as he could while he was likely to stay eligible. We speculated that his past decision didn't bode well for his chances to clear those academic hurdles, but it appears that McNeil has pulled it out.

This is absolutely huge news for the 'Noles as McNeil was slated to be a starter at a position of huge need and little depth.

Progression, Stagnation, or Regression? Noles Defensive Line

FrankDNole — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:55:46 -0000

Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"

Recently I came across a similar series that I thought I could apply to our 2009 Seminoles, which might make for entertaining reading to some of our TN members. While this series may not actually answer my question, it might at least give us something to discuss and debate until more information starts rolling in once the practices actually start.

What I will attempt to do, is to project how our 7 basic units (defensive line, linebackers, secondary, backfield, offensive line, receivers and tight ends, and special teams) of the 2009 Noles will perform as compared to last season team.

The way we will try to come up with a possible answer is to address each of the 7 units above individually, by using the projected 2 deeps as of today, in comparison with last years starters. We will look at who was there last season, analyze the roster changes, if any, and then we will all decide if these changes will result in progression, regression, or if we can expect little or no change.

We must remember that with the kickoff still over a month away, and the start of practices still over one week away, it will be impossible to reach definite conclusions at this time. There could very well be injuries, promotions, demotions, and incoming freshmen who might surprise us all. I will ask you the TN members to project via poll, (your favorite way and the easiest and most accurate measure available to us) how well you expect the 7 individual units will perform this season. At the end of the series, I will report back to you, the TN readers, what your expectations of this team are at this point in time.

Recently NoleThruandThru gave us his projected two-deep lineup and asked you for your thoughts on the 2-deeps. While there were some very good comments and opinions posted as to what may happen before and during the upcoming season, for the purpose of this series I will be using only the official Seminole 2-deep lineups posted along with some projections and input I received from FSUncensored.

Please remember that while we lost some very good individual talent, we want to look at the each unit as a whole when we finally vote on whether that particular unit has progressed, stayed stagnant, or regressed, in comparison to last years unit.

Today we will start with the DEFENSIVE LINE.

2008 DE=Benjamin Lampkin (really a LB) started the first 3 games, then was replaced by Neffy Moffett who started the rest of the season. In 10 games played, Moffett had 19 Total Tackles of which 11 were for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 int, 2 QBH, and forced two fumbles and recovered one. Both players are now gone.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Kevin McNeil and Jamar Jackson

2008 NG=Moses McCray started the first 2 games then was replaced by Budd Thacker who started every remaining game until the Champs Bowl when Paul Griffin started his last game as a Nole. Griffin is the only one gone and only had 11 Total Tackles, 1 for loss, 1 QBH, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED NG=Moses McCray and Budd Thacker

2008 DT=Kendrick Stewart started 8 games and Justin Mincey started 4 games, 3 of which were the last 3 games.

2009 PROJECTED DT=Justin Mincey and Kendrick Stewart

2008 DE=Everette Brownhas left and taken his 36 total tackles of which 21.5 were for losses, 13.5 sacks, 2 pass BU, 3 QBH, 4 FF, and 1 FR.

2009 PROJECTED DE=Markus White and Toshmon Stevens.

OTHERS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE: Everett Dawkins (SDE), Brandon Jenkins(WDE), Jacobbi McDaniel (DT), Demonte McAllister (DT/SDE)

Well there you have it. I guess the real question is not if Brown and Moffett can be replaced, but whether their replacements will be able to keep up the kind of pressure on the QB we saw last year, to prevent the rest of the defense from being shredded.

MY PROJECTION: REGRESSION.

What is yours? Please vote now.

Become a fan of us on facebook! http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/TomahawkNationcom/63264950770

New Readers: please read through the Tomahawk Nation Welcome Guide! We put a lot of work into that and it should enhance your experience.

Get your official Tomahawk Nation T-SHIRT! ORDER NOW!

via assets.sbnation.com (Click to enlarge)

Poll

2009 FSU DEFENSIVE LINE-PROGRESSION, STAGNATION, OR REGRESSION? Please read the whole article before voting. Poll closes Friday July 31 at 7:00 PM

PROGRESSION

180 votes

STAGNATION

117 votes

REGRESSION

58 votes

355 votes | Poll has closed

Back to Basics: A Detailed Look at Defensive Line Play

TrueCubbie — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:07:58 -0000

Like offensive lineman, defensive lineman typically don't attract much attention from the casual fan, seen as the brutes up front that simply run into each other over and over. As FSUn demonstrated so nicely in his recent piece, offensive line play is a coordinated series of movements based on real time interpretation of the defensive front. Without an understanding or appreciation the subtleties required to play on the offensive and defensive line, it's understandable why many overlook these players during the game, except when they make a significant error.

In this piece, we take a closer look at the subtleties of defensive line play, providing an understanding of what really goes on down in the trenches and some important things to look for when evaluating recruits.

Image from here.

Continue reading this thread to learn more about what is some of the most exciting play on the football field.

If you can't control the line of scrimmage your chances of winning a football game significantly decrease. A dominating defensive line, or even lineman, will impact the outcome of a game. If a quarterback has no time to throw the ball, if the running back can't turn the corner, if the offensive line can't control the line of scrimmage, it's over. In this article, we will take a look at some of the basics about defensive line play followed by a discussion about effective line play.

In general, most teams will use 3 or 4 defensive linemen in their base defensive fronts. When announcers and coaches talk about a 3-4 front or 4-3 front, the first number refers to the number of true defensive lineman. The second number refers to the number of linebackers. Occasionally, teams will go to a five man defensive lineman front, but I would say this is exceedingly rare as most teams will walk line backers up to the line of scrimmage to load the line. A four man front typically includes two defensive tackles and two defensive ends. The three man front is a little more flexible, but will generally include a pure nose tackle, a defensive end and a defensive tackle. In a 3-4 scheme, a line backer typically walks up as the fourth defensive lineman. Again, this is a very basic discussion about basic alignment and the schemes and personnel will vary from team to team.

The Basics: Techniques and Gaps

Before getting into the details of defensive line play one must have an understanding of alignment. The image below illustrates the typical numbering system that is used to identify the position of the defensive lineman:

It's not the clearest image but it is probably the most comprehensive one that I could find. The circles represent offensive linemen, with the center being the filled in circle. The letters define the "gaps" between the offensive linemen. The numbers, also referred to as the "technique," identify the locations at which the defensive players line up. For example, a "0" technique is lined up directly on the center, the "1" technique is on the inside shoulder, meaning the side closest to the center, of the guard. You will frequently hear commentators say that a player lined up in the 3 technique or 1 technique; the above image illustrates to what they are referring. Many teams will use the numbering schems in play calling. For example, when I played, the initial part of the play call referred to the base front. If the coach called "431," it meant we were using a 4 man front with the strong side tackle in the 3 technique and the weak side tackle in the 1 technique. Strength refers to the balance of the offense and generally identifies which side of the offense has more players or the tight end or the best player or however the defense identifies strength for their particular scheme.

You will also hear that specific players are responsible for a specific "gap." The gaps are identified by the letters between the offensive players: A gap is between the guard and center, the B gap is between the guard and tackle and so on. Depending on the scheme, a player may be responsible for collapsing a specific gap, blitzing through a gap or occupying a gap. Most defensive line schemes will have the defensive tackles lined up in the 3 and 1 technique. Again, this varies depending on the type of personnel a team has. For example, with a BJ Raj like player, you may have that individual line up in the 0-technique, shaded to the strong side of the play with the intention of occupying the A-gap requiring a block from both the center and guard. I can't tell you how hard it is to play center with a guy right on top of the ball.

Stunts

Stunts refer to predefined movements of the defensive line. Defensive linemen do not simply go straight ahead on every play. Sometimes they will play straight up and try to maintain their responsibility. On many occasions, a defensive coordinator will call for a specific stunt, making it more difficult for the offensive line to block. These stunts can be done as an entire defensive line with every player crashing to he weak or strong side, or it could be limited to the tackles or individual players. Stunts will change the specific gap responsibilities of the lineman as well as the backers behind them. Often a stunt will be used in combination with a blitz, using the stunt to pull a lineman away or distract the lineman from the linebacker that is now blitzing.

For example, here is a play in which all of the lineman pinch towards the center. This may be used in short yardage situations.

Here is another one in which only the tackles pinch:

And here is an example of a "loop" or "twist" play:

Here is an example of a play that demonstrates a stunt with the linemen combined with a linebacker blitz:

This play demonstrates some sophisticated line play. Look how far the Right defensive end (the one on the left side of the page) is expected to crash down the line. The purpose of this is to pull the offensive tackle toward the center, with the hopes of him turning his shoulders toward the crashing lineman, making it almost impossible for him to pick up either linebacker blitzing from the outside. The whole purpose of this play, if you look at the lineman alone, is to pull the offensive line to their right with the hope of leaving the left tackle alone to block two blitzing linebackers. Defensive lineman do a lot of dirty work to allow the linebackers to play free behind them. A good defensive lineman should be very difficult to block one on one. If a defensive lineman is able to occupy more than one offensive lineman, you are decreasing the number of players available to block the linebackers.

Stance

A lineman's stance is exceedingly important in football. Offensive lineman need to be well balanced and not tip off which direction they are likely to step first; they have to be able to move in all directions from a set position. Defensive lineman take a more aggressive stance as they are trying to accelerate off the ball. Here is an example of a typical defensive end stance. This is also referred to as a three point stance. Notice how the player has his head up, has most of his weight on his down hand and has his free hand up.

Photo from here.

Having the free hand is important for getting the hand forward on the initial movement. The player above, Mark Anderson of the Chicago Bears, is in a bit of an exaggerated stance. He is primarily a pass rush specialist and his weight is a little more forward than you would want, but he demonstrates a lot of the principles of a good three point stance. Here is an excellent picture of Jason Taylor demonstrating a more balanced stance.

Photo from here.

A good lineman will not tip off the direction of his initial movement from his stance. Clearly, in a pass rush situation a player will take a more aggressive sprinting stance to get up the field. As I mentioned previously, it is important for a defensive lineman to keep his hands forward or in a good position to fire forward. By getting the hands firing forward on the initial move it prevents the offensive lineman from engaging. You will see a lot of offensive and defensive lineman working on what is called "hand play". Here is a video of Julius Pepper's training session. Notice how much of the work out includes hand strength and that explosion out of the stance, getting the hands forward and the body extended. Here is a video that highlights our own Everette Brown. Take a minute to not only watch Everette's athletic ability, but look at the different stances of our entire defensive line, watch the way they move, watch their hands, watch how the explode out of their stances. Look at the different stances that Everette takes, it changes depending on the situation. This may be getting into the minutia, but I think this is where some of the most exciting plays in football happen.

For comparison sake, here is an example of a good offensive lineman's stance:

Photo from here.

Balanced and head up. Notice how his weight isn't placed on his front hand. If you were to swipe that down hand out from underneath the player, his stance shouldn't budge. It may seem that too much time is being spent on a lineman's stance, but it is key to their success. If you give anything away or are out of control because you don't have a good stance, you will not be successful.

Reading Blocks

Typically, you can tell what kind of play the offense is going to run based on the initial step/movement of the offensive line. Part of being a successful defensive lineman is having the ability to react to that initial step, reading the play before it fully develops. Here is a video of USC's defensive line drills. Watch the explosion the players have with the hands, engaging the pads. At the end of the video they show some basic rip/swim moves that players use to shed blocks. Listen carefully to the coach as he gets on his players about keeping the offensive players away from them.

As the offensive and defensive player engage, the defensive player should get some sense of how the offensive lineman is trying to block him, meaning is he trying to hook him, is he trying to drive straight up field, is he settling into pass protection, is he pulling? The defensive lineman has to counter those moves. Imagine yourself as the defensive lineman. Now imagine that the offensive player is trying to pin/hook your left shoulder and drive you to your right. As a defensive lineman, your objective is to extend your left arm and drive the offensive player back into the hole he is trying to create. As a defensive end, if the offense is trying to seal the outside and get around you, you have to fight the offensive lineman and cause the play to move lateral, forcing it further outside while maintaining good leverage to get back inside if needed. I have tried to find good videos on this but I haven't as of yet. But I hope this demonstrates the importance of extending the arms and taking control of the offensive lineman. You will also note that a lot of defensive lineman are wearing smaller and smaller jerseys, having a large part of their arms exposed. This is to give the offensive lineman the least amount of jersey to hold; it's not to show off their biceps. Yes, offensive linemen hold on every single play.

A key block to read is that of the pulling offensive lineman. Defensive lineman are taught to get in the "hip pocket" of the pulling offensive lineman. If you are lined up in the three technique and the guard pulls, follow him as he will take you to the play. Easier said than done as the tackle or center is crashing down on your legs to cut you and prevent you from doing so. Keeping your legs is also a key part of reading blocks. Getting cut makes you useless. Recognizing that a player is trying to cut block you before he gets into your legs is a difficult skill as it happens so fast.

Pass Rush Moves

Watching the battle that develops between defensive ends and offensive tackles through a game is one of the most exciting parts of a football game. One could equate it to a pitcher trying to set up a batter to chase a pitch out of the zone. There are a variety of moves that are utilized by defensive linemen to get past their offensive opponent: swim move, rip move and bull rush. Here is a nice video from Mac Brown illustrating a couple of these moves. There are multiple variations on all of these moves.

There is the pure speed rush in which a defensive end basically tries to run past the tackle. You will see an end use this a few times in a row, getting the tackle to be extremely nervous about being beat to the outside. The tackle will try to set deeper and deeper and start to turn his shoulders outside. As soon as that happens and if the end recognizes that anxiety, he will use a spin move or rip move to come underneath the tackle. Defensive tackles will typically use more of bull rush technique as they have limited space with which to work. A really important part of a pass rush is recognizing if you're not going to get to the quarterback. If you're not, then you have to get your hands up, particularly on quick drops.

Here is a nice video of Simeon Rice demonstrating the spin move back to the inside. Here is a series of clips of Julius Peppers. Another outstanding video of our own Everette Brown. Here is one of BJ Raji's highlight tapes. The first two highlights demonstrate the classic bull rush move. One of the greatest pass rushers ever: Reggie White.

This is a video from Elite Football Academy showing multiple players using a variety of pass rush moves. It's a nice demonstration of the various moves players will use. Here is Jared Allen explaining a good pass rush stance and initial movement and here he is explaining the speed rush.

And last but not least this is an excellent video of the NFL's elite pass rushers explaining how they get it done. It illustrates the hand play and importance of the initial move off the ball. (By the way, I typed my baseball analogy before watching this video)

Positions

Classically, there are two defensive line positions: tackle and end. Unfortunately, the readers at TNation are way to sophisticated and well read to recognize that is an over simplification. One could argue that the following positions are represented on the defensive line: strong side end, weak side end, defensive tackle and nose guard. Within those positions, one could break it down even further into run and pass specialists. It is no longer surprising to watch groups of linemen run on and off the field depending on the down and distance. Some teams will flip flop there defensive line from play to play depending on the strength of the play or line up their best defensive end on the weakest tackle or line up their best defensive end on the right side of the defense. The last option typically results in the end rushing from the blindside of the quarterback as most quarterbacks are right handed. This is the reason that left tackles in the NFL get paid so much. A bad left tackle will get a quarterback seriously injured.

In general, a strong side defensive end is the leverage point of the defense. He cannot allow his outside shoulder to get pinned and allow an offense to turn the corner. In general, defensive ends are responsible for containing an offense and stretching plays laterally. Typically, again depending on the scheme, the strong side end is your larger/stronger end as he is playing at the point of attack. The strong side end will typically line up on the inside shoulder of the tight end, again this depends on scheme. He must be able to handle double teams and disrupt the outside of the line, allowing the strong side and middle linebackers to run free behind him. On passing plays, he must disrupt the tight end's release of the line.

Your weak side end is typically where you see your speed and where you will see your one on one match ups. Again, the weak side end must maintain leverage at the point of attack and contain the quarterback. It takes a lot of discipline to play on the weakside of the ball as it is easy to start chasing plays down to early or getting caught inside (see the Boston College game) and allowing teams to reverse the field to the outside. It is imperative that the weak side end stay at home until he is absolutely sure that the play is not a reverse.

Your nose tackle or nose guard is a special breed of player. They need to clog up space, occupy blockers and be disruptive: think BJ Raji. The nose guard will be your largest player on the line. A successful nose guard will allow the middle line backer to roam free behind the line of scrimmage. If you get to the point that your interior lineman are successfully blocked one on one, a team will run all over you and your line backers will be miserable. This position is about power, aggressive behavior and being down right nasty.

Defensive tackles are becoming more and more specialized, meaning they are pass or run specialists. Again, the key to being a successful defensive tackle is being disruptive.

For a more detailed discussion, I would like to share our own CaStauch's take on our defense from a few months ago:

The 43 under- one gap scheme denotes particular responsibilities to each player. Concurrently, each of these responsibilities are themselves the foundation their teammates responsibilities: each position reflexively impacts and allows each other position to function. Starting from strongside and going to weakside, with respect to the defense's point of view of the offense (in that the strongside of the defense lines up opposite the strongside of the offense, usually the one with a Tight End), the first position to analyze is the Strongside Defensive end. The SDE lines up on the outside shoulder of offensive tackle to his side. His position is important because it cuts off the angle from which the offensive tackle can move without resistance. This is the form of protection that he bestows upon the LB behind him: because of the angle of his lineup, the OT cannot easily block down on the second level LB without either going through the SDE or amidst the congested middle of the line. In order to make the former as difficult as possible, the SDE must possess some method of holding his ground. Most naturally, this would imply weight. Usually SDE's range from 270-285 pounds. E.J. Wilson, of UNC (Coached by John Blake, one of the foremost DL minds in the collegiate game) weighs in at 280 lbs. Tyson Jackson at LSU clocks in at 285. Southern Cal's SDE, on the other hand, weighed in this past season at 6'6" 275 lbs.

In addition to weight, the SDE needs some form of body composition that utilizes this girth. There are two options. The first, is two evenly distribute the weight in a lankier frame, like USC's Moore. A longer body implies longer limbs. This, in combination with the greater amount of space that a longer body eats up, allows the SDE to control the line of scrimmage by dictating the movement of the OL with his longer arms. Another model for this method is Carlos Dunlap from UF. If you were with us earlier in the season, you may remember my piece on spatial and temporal playmakers (http://www.tomahawknation.com/2008/11/23/668913/strategy-session-did-the-d). A lankier SDE is an example of such a spatial constriction: his control of his opponent and longer frame shortens the negative space between him, his opposite OL, and the next D-Lineman, thus constricting the space in which the offense has to exploit.

The second option for an SDE to utilize his size is a stockier frame to produce leverage. This requires a slightly heavier player, like UNC's to exasperate the adequate leverage over what is no doubt a much taller OL.

The moral of the story for the SDE is that his job is to be a clogger. He prevents the Linebackers behind him from being blocked by the OL and TE opposite him. His angle of deployment, that on the outside shoulder of the OT and inside shoulder of the TE, along with his girth and size, allow him to do this. FSU has suffered the lack of an SDE for much of this decade. Our SDE this past season? Neefy Moffett. As admirable he performed at times, his size (256 lbs) preventing him from consistently manning the clogger role needed. Behind him, we have Kevin McNeil and Everette Dawkins, both of whom may be able to weigh in at the necessary weight (at least 275). We're also recruiting a bevy of diversity at this position, including David Perry (6"6 240) and Darious Cummings (6'2 260) both in their junior years.

Next in line is maybe the most integral man in the 43 under front, the Nose Tackle. He lines up in the gap between the center and guard on the SDE's side. More than any other, his role is singularly that as a clogger. It is imperative that his physical presence prevents either the Center and Guard to a) defend him 1 on 1, freeing up one of the blockers, and b) bypassing the NT to the Mike or Will LBs behind him. To meet this responsibility, the NT, like the SDE, has choices. Either actually clog the middle of the line with his immense girth (this is the popular approach within the NFL and was clearly illustrated by B.J. Raji and Boston College), or prove to be strong enough and have enough of a competent knowledge of technique and leverage that the same goal is accomplished. The latter is more likely for FSU: not only is it easier to teach technique and develop strength on top of necessary bulk, but we've one of the better technical NT coaches in the country. Coming in at a mere 262 lbs, Coach Haggins turned Brod Bunkley into a chiseled 290 lb NT worthy of first round draft pick and pro bowl consideration. Southern Cal's analog was Averall Spicer, 6'2" and 295. Last year, we played with Budd Thacker, who weighed in at 275, and Paul Griffin, at 280 (doubtful). This was the most direct reason for our porous run defense.

The future, however, looks bright if not tenuous. Moses McCray is expected to play at ~305, and will add that impressive bulk with the mechanical muscle memory imbued from wrestling in high school that will make learning the technical skills much easier. Behind him, Jaccobi McDaniel should start at 280 but gain weight steadily from there, and every coach that has witnessed his domination at the last two All Star games has come away incredibly impressed with his technical ability already.

The Strongside Defensive End and Nose Tackle serve as the foundation upon which the 43 under front is built. They are the necessary brick and mortar that enables the next two pieces, the Defensive Tackle and
Weakside Defensive End, to perform as disrupters that cut the spatial and temporal advantages inherent in the Offense.

The Defensive Tackle lines up on the outside shoulder of the Guard on the weak side. His position, labeled a Three Technique affords him the luxury of a one on one matchup with the Guard. Shielded both by the
body of the Guard with whom he’s matched up, and his Nose Tackle’s clogging responsibility tying up the center, it is the Coach’s responsibility to recruit and develop a player that accentuates this disruptive potential. Here, Florida State has traditionally excelled. Darnell Dockett, arguably the MVP of the Cardinals late season surge,
exemplifies this most clearly, as does Travis Johnson. Southern Cal’s Fili Moala weighs in at 6’2" 290, and possesses the necessary fast-twitch acceleration and understanding of technique and leverage to consistently beat the OG he’s opposite and disrupt the play

Florida State’s answer to this need is Justin Mincey. So as long as he develops mentally (stays eligible) and physically (fills out), Justin is potentially the next in a long line of first round picks produced by Coach Haggins. His width and length, at 6’5", allows him to control and dictate the contact with the likely shorter and slower OG. His speed isn’t gone to waste; shielded by his angle and the NT, he is provided an ample two gaps worth of protection with which to work.

Alongside him, the Weakside Defensive End also serves as a disruptor. He deploys on the outside shoulder of the left tackle, and the inherent disruptive qualities and unrivaled spatial isolation are the reasons Left Tackles
are paid more than any position in Football. While the DT is also matched up against a single blocker, he is not awarded the space with which to work like the WDE. As such, he is the principle source of pass rush in this scheme. His size and physique must illustrate this principle goal: normally between 250 and 260 lbs, allowing him not to sacrifice speed and agility with which he can attack an environment (one blocker and nearly ~30 yards of space) that is unrivaled by any other frontal configuration. While Souther Cal has Everson Griffin, FSU counters with Everette Brown and now Markus White. For all of our struggles these past seasons in fielding satisfactory SDEs and NTs, the WDE position has not been a source of angst, at least personnel wise (schematically however, has caused some frustration, but that is the seed of another article for another day).

Final Thoughts

If you have made it this far, congratulations and thanks for reading. Defensive line play is one of the most exciting parts of football. Hopefully this article provides you with a basic frame work with which to watch the line play and to think about the recruiting process. It takes time to develop into an outstanding defensive lineman, but there are basic skills required. Acceleration, explosiveness and body type are key. When watching recruiting videos, watch for the way a kid comes off the ball, what does he do with his hands, how does he shed blocks, does he stay low, what is his first movement off the ball, does his head pop up or does he move across the line. I would argue that shuttle times and agility are more important for defensive lineman than 40 yard times. Strength is key and a kid has to have the right frame to develop his body to endure the punishment of playing on the line. There has been an evolution in the style of play at each position on the line. As CaStauch nicely stated, "Each position has a specific responsibility and players must be recruited that can fill these roles as best as they can. There cannot be any square peg in round hole recruiting here."

I look forward to hearing your thoughts about our defensive line and defensive line play in general. Clearly, a lot of this article is a gross simplification of defensive line technique, but a summary of some points that I find important.

And don't forget that Florida State has a history of developing some of the best defensive linemen in the country, many of whom go on to play in the NFL:

Photo from here.

Go NOLES!

Size Matters Part Deux: Evaluating ACC Run Defenses by Sacking the Sack

FSUncensored — Mon, 11 May 2009 07:09:50 -0000

In the second part of the "Size Matters" series, we attempt to better gauge run defense by focusing only on running plays. Obvious enough as that may sound, it's not quite that easy.

Note: If you haven't read part one, you need to do that first.

Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, many fans still believe last year's defense was an elite unit. It's not that these fans are dumb or lazy. They just don't know what to look for.

The defense had good total numbers last year, finishing 2nd in the ACC in yards allowed, but that's not the important stat. Why? Total defense doesn't account for how many times the opponent had the ball, which is as much a function of a team's offense as it is a team's defense. Simply put, FSU's offense held the ball for long stretches last year, averaging the 2nd most time per game in ACC play. In fact, FSU's defense faced the second fewest offensive plays per ACC game. It is much easier to have a "good defense" if your defense faces fewer plays per game than everyone else, if you define “good defense” in terms of total defense. The mainstream media is just catching on to this, but I expect Tomahawk Nation readers to understand that yards per play is a much better measure than total defense.

But this article is about run defense, and even those who rely on aggregate numbers can see that last year's run defense was not special. And I hope that they are willing to step out on the ledge and accept "yards per carry" as a measure of rushing success. Well, how about Yards Per Carry Allowed? To the Chart!

NOTE: Numbers are from ACC games only, as out of conference scheduling varies wildly from team to team.

Name	Att	Yards	Avg.
Boston College	298	830	2.8
Wake Forest	254	784	3.1
Virginia Tech	312	996	3.2
Virginia	327	1097	3.4
Florida State	265	995	3.8
Georgia Tech	270	1018	3.8
Duke	333	1265	3.8
North Carolina	297	1140	3.8
Clemson	285	1121	3.9
North Carolina State	256	1027	4.0
Maryland	317	1345	4.2
Miami (Florida)	344	1497	4.4

So, FSU was tied for 5th, along with 3 other teams allowing 3.8 yards per "carry". That's certainly not what we expect from a Mickey Andrews defense. We wish we could say FSU's run defense was better than that 3.8 yards per "carry" suggests, but that is not the case. There's a reason why we used quotation marks around carry. FSU's 2008 run defense was broken.

In American football, a carry is a statistical term equivalent to a single rushing play. A sack is defined as tackling a ball carrier who intends to throw a forward pass. A sack is also awarded if a player forces a fumble of the ball, or the ball carrier to go out of bounds, behind the line of scrimmage on an apparent intended forward pass play.

For reasons that are probably rooted in the college game's option roots, the NCAA counts a sack as a running play. The NFL does not. This us dumb, especially when you consider that official scorers denote sacks in the same way (see above definition). Can we all agree that a properly scored sack is not a running play?

While conceding that there are differences in each stadium's official scorer, let's have a look at run defense against running plays. Let's sack the sack. A sack is an outcome of a passing play, and in a later article we'll include sacks where they belong. Here are the sack results from the 2008 ACC season:

Team	Sacks	Yards Lost
Virginia Tech *	27	240
Boston College *	25	161
Florida State	24	179
Miami (Florida)	19	134
Duke	18	95
Georgia Tech	17	128
Maryland	17	85
Virginia	16	125
Wake Forest	15	92
North Carolina State	14	94
North Carolina	12	66
Clemson	9	65
* Includes ACC Championship Game

Florida State had the conference's best pass rush in 2008, led by All-American Everette Brown. The goal here, however, is to find the most accurate gauge of run defense. To do that, we need to sack the sack.

That's atrocious. 2nd worst in the conference isn't an off year. It's a serious problem that needs to be immediately addressed. The problem is, we're not even sure FSU knows it has this problem.

That's 1174 rushing yards allowed on 241 carries, for an average of 4.87 given up per carry. We really can't underestimate the magnitude of this problem.2nd worst in the conference is not an off year, it's a systemic issue.

This chart illustrates how much each team benefited from their sack numbers being included in their run defense totals.

In Part One (see link in lead paragraph), we discussed the reasons for FSU's poor run defense. Simply put, FSU's defense lacks the minimum bulk in its front 7 defenders to stop the run without dedicating another defender (from the secondary) to the cause. Committing an extra defender to the run overtaxes our secondary, leaving us vulnerable to play action fakes. FSU further complicates matters by misusing its resources and playing guys out of position (most notably at strong side defensive end and outside linebacker). See the first article for a huge explanation.

As a last check of our numbers, we put together a game-by-game chart.

Opponent	YPCA w/o Sacks	Carries (w/o Sacks)	Rush Yards Allowed (w/o Sacks)	Att	Yards	Avg.	Sacks	Sack Yards
Wake Forest	2.1	36	75	38	59	1.6	2	16
Miami	5.8	12	69	14	51	3.6	2	18
N.C. St.	7.9	21	166	22	157	7.1	1	9
15 Virginia Tech	4.2	28	117	34	82	2.4	6	35
Georgia Tech	6.4	45	288	45	288	6.4	0	0
Clemson	4.3	30	128	36	79	2.2	6	49
Boston College	4.0	46	185	47	176	3.7	1	9
Maryland	6.3	23	146	29	103	3.6	6	43

7 of the 8 conference opponents ran for 4 or more yards once sacks were excluded, and half the opponents ripped off over five and a half yards per carry.

You don't have to take our word for it, however, as there are far more advanced metrics saying the same thing: FSU's run defense was really poor. For instance, Bill Connelly of RockMNation (Missouri) and FootballOutsiders (where he writes the widely acclaimed Varsity Numbers column). Connelly's "Conference Report" is often referenced here, as it focuses only on conference games. Here we see Bill's Run Defense Efficiency Data and made it into a handy graph. Note that this data does include sacks as running plays, we think (though we hope Bill will exclude that next year). While it does include sacks, it is adjusted for opponent (some teams didn't have to play top running offenses like FSU or Ga. Tech) and doesn't include numbers after the game is already a blowout. The higher number is better. A score of 100 is about average. FSU scored a 95.6, a score placing them in the bottom half of the conference. VT and FSU clearly receive an undeserved bump due to their sack numbers here, jumping 6 and 3 spots ahead of their rankings in the "rushing yards per carry allowed without sacks" category. The key point here is that FSU is again not a good run defense.

If these numbers excluded sacks, FSU might be dead last (as opposed to 2nd to last in our less refined measure).

This problem likely won't be fixed this year as FSU doesn't have the personnel in its front 7 after the wasted 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes, and it could get significantly worse if injuries strike the 'Noles. It is up to Jimbo and the future staff to make sure guys play the proper position and to recruit the players the FSU needs to execute its defense of choice. As noted in part one, this includes having Everette Dawkins play his natural position (Strongside End), moving Nigel Bradham to the opposite side, and having a bigger middle linebacker.

GO NOLES!!

Become a fan of us on facebook!

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/TomahawkNationcom/63264950770