SB Nation - Josh Nesbitt

Your Final Score of the 2010 Orange Bowl: Iowa 80, Georgia Tech 17

Oops Pow Surprise — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:00:39 -0000

by J Pat Carter - AP

12 days ago: Georgia Tech football coach Paul Johnson, left, and Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz, right, pose for photos after a news conference for the upcoming Orange Bowl game in Miami, Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

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Hate to ruin the surprise, everyone, but we figured everyone should know the truth: Iowa is going to beat Georgia Tech by nine touchdowns in the Orange Bowl. Yep. It's true.

What's that? You're calling bullshit on Iowa racking up the single highest point total in bowl history? You don't think Cumberland's Revenge will actually take place?

Well, then. Allow us to retort. Because, if you haven't been paying attention to the FanPosts (and shame, shame on you if you haven't), you've missed the most interesting subplot of the entire bowl season thus far, which is this: Iowa is going to fucking murder the Yellow Jackets. We know this because of the superlative website WhatIfSports, which provides quality reconstructions of theoretical matchups between teams, regardless of year and all that.

So yes, Iowa 80, Georgia Tech 17. Let's take a look at the statistics, shall we?

Now, you might look at the box score and think to yourself, "well, in WIS's eyes, after Iowa ran up that quick lead, Tech just let Josh Nesbitt throw the ball all over the place and disaster ensued." That's a decent inference, except WIS had the complete and total opposite idea:

Yes, sure enough, What If Sports predicts that Nesbitt won't throw a single pass all game long. And why would he? As we've previously established completely by way of our own testimony, the Iowa defense is fast, so that completely erases any notion of even trying the forward pass, no matter by which how many points you're losing.

Something our more eagle-eyed readers might notice is that this simulation supposes one simple condition: that Iowa puts together the single most dominant rushing performance in modern college football history.

After all, Brandon Wegher is allegedly the most scoringest player of the game, registering 179 yards on 20 carries and 4 TDs. By themselves, those stats would certainly seem to be the type of numbers that would swing a game in Iowa's favor.

But then Adam Robinson happened, and apparently Adam Robinson is what happens when Tony Dorsett and Herschel Walker make a Satanic anal baby. Because here's A-Rob's numbers on the ground: 25 rushes, 368 yards, 4 TDs.

All in all, here's Iowa's projected production for the night, compared to Georgia Tech's:

Yes, 43 first downs. In one game. That's how comically inept the Georgia Tech defense is, people! Iowa can literally register more than 10 yards per snap, which means any failure to gain the first down after two snaps is merely an exercise in perverse curiosity.

Our favorite aspect of all of this, aside from what we've already introduced (mainly, that Iowa will score as many offensive touchdowns against Georgia Tech as they did in the last half of the Big Ten slate (and that includes the six scored against Indiana)), is that Kirk Ferentz will absolutely not even entertain of calling off the dogs. After all, witness what happens after halftime:

Okay, as long as you didn't throw a Molotov Cocktail through your monitor in protest, you might notice something a bit off about that 4th quarter. Mainly, that there are names that you recognize from the 1st quarter.

Our favorite performance is by Ricky Stanzi, who's seen throwing a deep bomb for a touchdown with Iowa up by literally 8 touchdowns and three minutes left in the entire game. If you don't call off the dogs there, you literally have no idea what "calling off the dogs" means or entails. And what's even better, it's on a flea flicker. No, that's not explicitly mentioned anywhere, but it's in a universe where Iowa leads Georgia Tech by 56 points in a football game and the starting quarterback is still in the game; why wouldn't they run the flea flicker to the post route?

If College Football Had a Playoff: #9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ #8 Ohio State Buckeyes

Jeremy Mauss — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:00:19 -0000

Continue the new break out hit of the season "What if College Football had a Playoff' returns for game two of the playoff. Before we get to game two the winner of game one was an expected blowout by Alabama soundly defeating Troy to move on to host the winner of this game.

Now this matchup features two completely different styles with Georgia Tech who runs a triple option and is taking that game to the 'Shoe in Columbus to face the 'we wanna be spread but really a smash mouth football team' Ohio State.

The Ohio State defense is very good but the question has always been the speed of their defense (or lack of speed). Speed and assignment defense is what Ohio State would need to do to try to stop the Georgia Tech option. Last year LSU shut down the Tech option with their speed and Ohio State is a bit behind in their speed then LSU.

Ohio State really wants to pound the ball has the wild card in Terrelle Pryor who is a so-so passer but if the Buckeyes use roll outs and move the pocket that will help use his abilities rather then to just drop back and throw.

Just because of the contrasting styles this should be a very good game. To give some help to those who are not sure who would win I turned to What if Sports to simulate this game.

What if Sports has Ohio State winning a close game 35-31, but Georgia Tech had a 31-20 lead going into the fourth quarter before allowing the Buckeyes to score 15 points to their zero to loss the game. The decision here is for the fans to vote to see who moves on.

Check back daily at 12 PM eastern time to vote for the next matchup, and voting is only for 24 hours. As they say in Chicago vote early and vote often.

Ohio State Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Joe Bauserman	5	30.0	6	19	31.6	124	24.8	6.5	0	0	9	10	2	1.1	0	-	-
Terrelle Pryor	12	93.0	144	258	55.8	1828	152.3	7.1	16	10	142	707	58.9	5	7	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Joe Bauserman	5	9	10	2	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K.C. Christian	2	5	14	7	2.8	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bo DeLande	1	3	5	5	1.7	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joe Gantz	2	4	6	3	1.5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Herron	9	139	558	62	4	7	8	48	5.3	6	1
Jermil Martin	3	11	84	28	7.6	1	0	0	0	0	0
DeVier Posey	12	2	19	1.6	9.5	0	52	727	60.6	14	7
Terrelle Pryor	12	142	707	58.9	5	7	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Saine	12	131	694	57.8	5.3	4	15	165	13.8	11	1
Dane Sanzenbacher	11	2	8	.700	4	0	27	506	46	18.7	6
Ray Small	11	4	40	3.6	10	0	15	175	15.9	11.7	0
Lamaar Thomas	9	1	6	.700	6	0	1	10	1.1	10	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Jake Ballard	9	13	126	14	9.7	0
Zach Boren	3	4	23	7.7	5.8	1
Duron Carter	6	13	176	29.3	13.5	1
Daniel Herron	9	8	48	5.3	6	1
DeVier Posey	12	52	727	60.6	14	7
Brandon Saine	12	15	165	13.8	11	1
Dane Sanzenbacher	11	27	506	46	18.7	6
Ray Small	11	15	175	15.9	11.7	0
Jake Stoneburner	2	2	30	15	15	0
Lamaar Thomas	9	1	10	1.1	10	0

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Devin Barclay	4	-	-	-	-	-	4	7	60.0%	12	12	100.0%	24
Aaron Pettrey	9	-	-	-	-	-	13	19	70.0%	28	29	100.0%	67

Georgia Tech Stats

Passing

		Passing									Rushing					Sacks
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Sack	YdsL
Josh Nesbitt	13	83.0	73	153	47.7	1689	129.9	11	10	4	259	991	76.2	3.8	18	-	-
Jaybo Shaw	4	-50.0	1	2	50	18	4.5	9	0	1	12	51	12.8	4.3	0	-	-
Tevin Washington	1	100.0	1	1	100	21	21	21	0	0	6	40	40	6.7	0	-	-

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Anthony Allen	13	61	597	45.9	9.8	5	5	112	8.6	22.4	1
Lucas Cox	3	9	31	10.3	3.4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Dwyer	13	221	1346	103.5	6.1	14	3	25	1.9	8.3	0
Stephen HIll	8	5	84	10.5	16.8	1	6	137	17.1	22.8	1
Roddy Jones	11	53	345	31.4	6.5	3	0	0	0	0	0
Preston Lyons	11	30	139	12.6	4.6	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Malone	1	1	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Nesbitt	13	259	991	76.2	3.8	18	0	0	0	0	0
Embry Peeples	11	28	143	13	5.1	0	8	244	22.2	30.5	1
Jaybo Shaw	4	12	51	12.8	4.3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Quentin Sims	1	2	19	19	9.5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Orwin Smith	11	5	26	2.4	5.2	0	2	26	2.4	13	0
Demaryius Thomas	13	1	3	.200	3	0	46	1154	88.8	25.1	8
Tevin Washington	1	6	40	40	6.7	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Watson	4	9	37	9.3	4.1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Wright	11	32	190	17.3	5.9	3	0	0	0	0	0

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
Anthony Allen	13	5	112	8.6	22.4	1
Jonathan Dwyer	13	3	25	1.9	8.3	0
Stephen HIll	8	6	137	17.1	22.8	1
Daniel McKayhan	2	1	18	9	18	0
Tyler Melton	4	5	46	11.5	9.2	0
Embry Peeples	11	8	244	22.2	30.5	1
Orwin Smith	11	2	26	2.4	13	0
Demaryius Thomas	13	46	1154	88.8	25.1	8

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	0-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Scott Blair	11	-	-	-	-	-	14	19	70.0%	43	44	100.0%	85
Chris Tanner	3	-	-	-	-	-	0	1	0	14	14	100.0%	14

via l.yimg.com

Poll

Who wins the matchup?

Georgia Tech

120 votes

Ohio State

62 votes

182 votes | Poll has closed

Who are Iowa's playmakers?

BirdGT — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

Iowa's got three guys on offense I'm kinda worried about. The primary running back (Robinson), the good wide receiver (McNutt), and the tight end. We seem to struggle against tight ends (we give up ~3 catches/game to tight ends). McNutt and Robinson are the primary offensive weapons on Iowa's team having scored twelve of the team's twenty nine touchdowns. When Iowa needs some points, they look for McNutt and Robinson to produce or at least produce as much as an Iowa offense will allow them. Here's a quick summary of who picks up the yardage and TD's in the Iowa offense:

Looking at the yardage and touchdowns can be slightly misleading. Guys could get a big play and take it to the house on busted coverage. This could skew their overall numbers so I kinda broke it down even further. As far as receivers are concerned, there are three important factors I looked at. First was "looks" or essentially the number of times the QB threw the ball in their direction. Second was "catches" or the number of actual receptions for the player. Third was "success", which adds up all the times he took the ball for a first down or touchdown. I feel like the success rate indicates who we have to look at, from a defensive perspective, as the deep threats or the guys Iowa will go to in the clutch. So, here are Iowa's numbers for success/look, success/catch, and catch/look.

Obviously, success is relative. If the route was designed to pick up 5 yards and not a first down, then it obviously was successful. However, I'm not really factoring that in 'cause that fact is lost forever after the play is called in and actually executed. We're only looking for game breakers not 5 yard out route masters.

GT fans may have noticed that I added Demaryius Thomas to the statistics. He's pretty much on par with Iowa's main threats except in success rate. Thomas takes about 5% more of his catches for first downs or TD's than Iowa's best. So if an Iowa fan says, "You've only got one receiver!" GT fans can reply, "That's all you need when the probability of him succeeding is just as good or better than the whole gaggle of Iowa receivers!" Why fix something that's not broken? Keep throwing to Thomas and he'll keep giving us first downs and touchdowns.

Concerning the running game...Iowa doesn't really have a game breaker. The guys are serviceable. They're very young. GT would struggle with freshmen starting in our system and Iowa's two primary backs are both freshmen and account for over 80% of the carries and all of the rushing touchdowns for Iowa. Iowa is in the bottom of almost every Big 10 rushing category because they've just not had the Shonn Greene or Albert Young to carry the load and bust the occasional big one.

I broke down the running backs into two main statistics. Success rate and fail rate. "Success" means the RB picked up the first down or touchdown on his carry. "Fail" means he didn't gain a yard. I added someone to the graph who will become Iowa's new best friend shortly. Other accounts for QB draws, QB sneaks, backup RB's, and WR reverses.

And really this is Iowa's problem. Their running backs fail to gain a yard ~25% of the time. That's terrible. 80 run plays for Iowa's two main backs have accounted for less than zero yards. I am comparing Dwyer to these two because his position is most similar and his stats are more similar. Our A-backs rushing stats are like wide receiver stats. Also, Jon Dwyer is our worst back concerning plays for negative or zero yardage and he only fails to achieve a yard 10% of the time! That's only 25 plays all year! Awesome. I hope Ferentz is working on Iowa's run blocking during his month off.

As I look at Iowa's offense each day, I wonder how they won any games at all. How do you win 10 games without running the ball effectively? Their defense is either superb or their competitions' offenses were equally terrible.

Adrian Clayborn Will Be Speaking Through An Interpreter Today

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 08:44:11 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn stands with his dog Ace as he speaks to the media following an announcement that his team will play Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. To repeat: he brought a fucking dog. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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So, Adrian, what do you make of

Please, all questions go through my dog.

Wait, why did you bring a dog? Are you serious?

As a motherfucking heart attack.

What'd you name it?

I named him after my favorite reporter, so, Bark Morehouse.

Aw, thanks!

Just kidding, his name is Ace.

:-(

So, um...

Talk to the dog.

So "Ace."

arf

How do you think your master's going to treat Josh Nesbitt next month?

Ruff!

Told you the dog's smart.

You actually didn't tell me anything close to that.

Yes I did.

Okay sir.

And, pooch, what do you think of Paul Johnson as a worthy adversary?

(growls)

Haha, this is great.

Your thoughts on Jonathan Dwyer?

(pisses on the carpet)

Okay, this is ridiculous and unsanitary. I think I got urine on my shoes. Can we just stop this?

Fine. And I didn't train him to answer any of those questions. He just felt like barking and pissing.

Weird. So then, Adrian, your thoughts on Jon Dwyer?

(pisses on the carpet)

2009 ACC Football Blogger Awards

furrer4heisman — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:00:15 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

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Last week the mainstream media had its fun handing out hardware for the 2009 ACC football season. I asked the best ACC bloggers around to submit their own ballots for postseason football awards. The results are after the jump. I'd like to give a big thanks to everyone who participated.

Blog	School
ACC/SEC Blog	ACC
On the B.Rink	ACC
Today's ACC Headlines	ACC
BC Interruption	Boston College
Block-C	Clemson
Shakin the Southland	Clemson
Blue Devil Nation	Duke
Scalp Em	Florida State
From the Rumble Seat	Georgia Tech
Testudo Times	Maryland
Turtle Waxing	Maryland
Anton Azucar	Miami
The Seventh Floor	Miami
Tar Heel Fan	North Carolina
Tar Heel Mania	North Carolina
Yet Another...	NC State
From Old Virginia	Virginia
Beer Control Offense	Virginia Tech
College Game Balls	Virginia Tech
Blogger So Dear	Wake Forest

Coach of the Year

Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is the blogger's choice for 2009 ACC Coach of the Year. Johnson's Yellow Jackets quickly put the kibosh on the notion that the ACC would quickly catch up to his spread flexbone offense. Georgia Tech will participate in its first BCS game when it faces Iowa in the Orange Bowl.

Paul Johnson, GT - 11
Frank Spaziani, BC - 3
Dabo Swinney, CU - 3
Randy Shannon, MIA - 2
David Cutcliffe, DU - 1

Offensive Player of the Year

Clemson's C.J. Spiller was the overwhelming choice for the conference's offensive player of the year, according to the conference's bloggers. Spiller led the league in all-purpose yards with 2,512. He helped lead Clemson to its first appearance in the ACCCG.

C.J. Spiller, CU - 13
Ryan Williams, VT - 4
Josh Nesbitt, GT - 3

Defensive Player of the Year

In the closest vote, Georgia Tech's Derrick Morgan took home defensive player of the year honors. Morgan was a terror at defensive end for the Yellow Jackets, leading the league in sacks with 12.5.

Derrick Morgan, GT - 7
Luke Kuechly, BC - 4
Robert Quinn, UNC - 4
DeAndre McDaniel, CU - 3
Nate Collins, UVA - 1
Quan Sturdivant, UNC - 1

Rookie of the Year

Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams was the near-unanimous vote for rookie of the year. The only two bloggers to not vote for Williams gave him their vote for offensive player of the year. Williams led the ACC in rushing yards with 1,538 and scored 19 touchdowns, both ACC freshman records.

Ryan Williams, VT - 18
Luke Kuechly, BC - 2

Ten Monday Thoughts on the Big Ten Bowls

Bama Hawkeye — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:42:52 -0000

1. I am both surprised and disappointed that we see TCU-Boise in the Fiesta Bowl and Iowa-Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. I'm most disappointed because of the "kiddie table" feel that the game has. I feel the same way when a mid-major 12 seed gets pit against a mid-major 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Where's the fun in that? The joy of underdogs is beating the giant. Obviously, I'm not alone in this thought. I also wanted to see Iowa in the Fiesta for personal reasons. For non-selfish reasons, I just don't like the matchup. In legal terms, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo nailed it. TCU v. Boise .... Plessy v. Ferguson.

Son, I was coaching against the triple option when you weren't even a stain on your father's pants.

2. Iowa could be well-suited to stopping Georgia Tech's offense in the Orange Bowl, or Iowa could be in for a pounding. Iowa's defensive coordinator, Norm Parker, is a crusty old codger who has been coordinating defenses long enough to have coached against the triple option when it was not novel to face it on a Saturday. One envisions him walking to a bookcase in his basement, pulling an old binder off the shelf, blowing the dust off of it, and rereading notes from decades gone by. The experience, coupled with Iowa's disciplined defense could be a key for a Hawkeye win. On the other hand, Iowa has been exploited by speed around the end (Iowa will smother the dive). That could result in Josh Nesbit and company going wild.

3. Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I don't know that it will be close. I am sure that LawBuck will have quite a bit more to say about this in the weeks ahead, but I think Oregon is in for a rude surprise. Ohio State will have the ball for more than 36 minutes, and will wear down the Ducks in the fourth quarter.

4. I think that LSU has to hate drawing Penn State in the Capital One Bowl. LSU has faced two elite defenses (Florida and Alabama) this year. They scored a total of 18 points in those two games. Penn State will be the third, and I don't expect it to go well either. Yes, the Lions' offensive line remains a problem, but the strength of the LSU defense is in the back seven. Penn State should be able to move the ball.

You're playing against Les Miles. Remember that.

5. I can't believe that the Outback Bowl picked Northwestern over Wisconsin. That just doesn't happen. I'm glad it did though.

6. Northwestern should beat Auburn. It's actually a good matchup for them. Northwestern will be facing a style that is familiar to them. Also, Auburn may be the worst of the six SEC teams that ended up tied at 7-5. If Northwestern is ever going to win a bowl game (they're oh-for-the-last sixty+ years). This is the time.

7. Wisconsin has a much better chance of beating Miami than Northwestern would have. The Badgers will need to play disciplined defense, but they can do that. The offense will need to march down the field and eat the clock, but they can do that. If John Clay can keep eating up 4+ yards per carry, I like Wisconsin's chances.

4.5 yards every carry = Badgers win. It can happen.

8. I'm worried about Michigan State. Maybe they rally the troops after the suspensions. Maybe they can "play up." In talent, I don't know that they are that far off from where Texas Tech is, but I don't like the idea of coming into a bowl game on the heels of disciplinary troubles.

9. Congratulations Minnesota! You may have drawn the one BCS-league bowl team that you can beat. Seriously, Hawkeye State, Oops Pow and I joked about this matchup during last week's BHGP podcast. The possibility of a 9-3 final score would be a distinct possibility (if Iowa State wasn't so star-crossed when it comes to the kicking game). The team that comes out and plays competent football will win this one. That's a really low threshold, Brewster.

Use him more. Please!

10. When all is said and done, the Big Ten will not repeat last year's 1-6 performance. Last year, the Big Ten was an underdog in six games (the six they lost). This year, I expect that the Big Ten will be the underdog in five (I'll guess that Penn State and Minnesota will be favored). But, we've got better matchups throughout.

11. My early guess is that the Big Ten goes 5-2, with Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota giving us the wins. That said, our margin is slim. The Big Ten Bowl Redemption is underway.

Let's Do This: Iowa to Face Georgia Tech in the 2010 Orange Bowl

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:00:23 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

15 days ago: Iowa football coach Kirk Ferentz speaks during a news conference following an announcement that his team will play Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Let's say, before the season began, you saw a prediction that the Orange Bowl (with its automatic ACC tie-in) would feature the following two teams:

TEAM A

Scheme-insistent offensive juggernaut featuring superior athletes at nearly all positions, a questionable defense, blowouts a-plenty

TEAM B

Slightly below-average offense, murderous defense, a quarterback with the uncanny ability to keep both teams in the game at the same time, deficits in vast majority of games played

You would probably look at Team B, frown, then ask, "Who the hell is the ACC dragging to the OB this year? North Carolina?" Then you'd start speculating about how much Texas was going to beat them by before settling on "two berjillion or so."

In fact, the most remarkable aspect of this matchup between Iowa and Georgia Tech is how Iowa's so much more of a typical ACC team than Georgia Tech is.

What we like about Georgia Tech is that they're a perfect example of how far, physically, the game has progressed in the last half-century or so. Watching highlights of vaunted triple option attacks from the '50s and '60s, like so:

and then comparing them to today's Georgia Tech offense:

...you think two things. The first is "Is that Keith Jackson doing the highlights in the first one?" (It isn't.) The second is "man, Georgia Tech's offense kicks the crap out of those old guys." And we're not talking about some worthless whodats of the era; Ernie Davis won a Heisman, and these two teams were a combined 19-1 going into the game, and Syracuse won the national title. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech isn't playing for the national title. They're hardly worthless whodats in their own right, of course, but the point is that such a level of physicality is more widespread these days.

One unit that's willing to crack helmets like that, fortunately, is the Iowa defense. While it's going to be a bit of a bummer that the pass defense--Iowa's sterling forte for the 2009 season--will basically only be tested on the fly routes that Josh Nesbitt heaves up about 10-15 times a game (to decent effect), it's at least encouraging that the Iowa defense will have a little idea of what's coming.

On one hand, one of the dirty little secrets of the Iowa football team is that the rush defense isn't all that great; they ranked 33rd in rushing defense on the season and were shown to be especially vulnerable by UNI, ISU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. With the exception of Wisconsin (whose offense effectively disappeared as soon as John Clay returned from having his entire body severed at the waist in the 2nd quarter), each of those teams has a mobile quarterback, and O HAI JOSH NESBITT HERE TO CONFOUND YOU WITH TRIPLE OPTION DEATHNESS SIR. The lesson, it would seem, is that when the Iowa defenders have to take a second to find the ball, bad things can happen.

On the other hand, only Michigan and Ohio State put up monster numbers on the Iowa defense, and they essentially schemed to do that and only that. Once again, you're probably thinking "oh, just like Georgia Tech," and if they were an opponent waiting where, let's say, Indiana would be, we'd say for sure: Iowa is super-screwed. Hell, Ferentz even admitted so himself:

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz vividly remembers flipping his television one night last fall and instantly becoming mesmerized by Georgia Tech’s spread option offense.

"I can’t imagine trying to get ready for them in a normal week," Ferentz said.

But the Iowa defense has a full month to prepare for this game, and they'll likely use all of it on defense, defense, defense. Pat Angerer (who, by the way, is 4th in the nation in tackles; were you aware of that?) is going to be the super-duper key man here; he may do the Iowa offense the most good by taking himself away from the play by crashing the middle of the line, forcing Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer to the outside, where superior pursuit men like AJ Edds, Jeremiha Hunter, and Tyler Sash thrive. Oh, Angerer's still going to get his tackles; Tech's counter game probably won't do very well against an observant linebacking corps and a disruptive defensive line, so once that ball goes outside the guards, Angerer should be flying toward the outside. But the real difference between getting run over and keeping the Ramblin' Wreck somewhat in check is going to be the play of the ends and outside linebackers, guys who'll be tasked with keeping 3-yard gains from turning into 8-yard gains.

In fact, beating Georgia Tech can be done, of course; if Iowa's offense is "below average", Georgia's is "LOLOLOLOL I either peed or came I was laughing too hard to tell", and the Bulldogs still beat their rivals 30-24 over Thanksgiving weekend. In the process, Georgia put together a clinic for a team like Iowa on how to beat Tech: methodical drives, run run run run, and make Josh Nesbitt work as hard as possible. Nesbitt carried the ball 19 times for only 41 yards (and 1 TD) against Georgia; the passing went little better, as Nesbitt was just 6-12 for 135 yards and a score. Altogether it's a decent day in fantasy football; in real life, it's not a recipe for Georgia Tech success.

Knowing nothing about the key matchups (whoever's tasked with blocking Adrian Clayborn, for one, will be vitally important), my immediate gut reaction is a negative one; even given a month to prepare, Iowa's still going to give up a substantial amount of yardage--that's just the way it is with Tech's offense--and I'm pessimistic that, even with Adam Robinson, Dace Richardson, and Ricky Stanzi as close to 100% as possible, Iowa will be able to move chains with enough regularity to properly limit the amount of possessions the Yellow Jackets get. Georgia ran all freaking over Tech, but Robinson and Brandon Wegher usually only put up big stats on teams in full surrender mode, like Iowa State.

Essentially, then, this game will probably come down to punting. Not the punters, but willfully giving the ball to the other team instead of scoring points, on account of the offense's inability to move the ball into scoring position. Iowa sent up 57 punts over the course of the regular season. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech attempted 30. If that rough 1:2 ratio holds up and Iowa attempts twice as many punts as the Yellow Jackets next month, it will probably mean Georgia Tech has won handily. Their offense is just too good, and Iowa's, well, isn't.

But if Iowa registers a similar amount of scoring chances--or, even better, forces turnovers before Georgia Tech can punt or score points--the Hawkeyes should be in (relatively) good shape. The Tech defense is porous enough that a trip inside the 25 should yield a touchdown more often than not, and whether the same holds true vice versa (and how often each scenario should take place) may end up determining the winner of the 2010 Orange Bowl. Can't wait to find out more.

(I'm still calling this an L on first blush; don't read too much into that, though, as I said the exact same thing about Wisconsin. Whoops!)

2009 ACC Championship Game Guide

furrer4heisman — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 12:00:43 -0000

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2, 7-1) vs. Clemson Tigers (8-4, 6-2)

Time: 8 p.m. EST
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5, 2009
Place: Raymond James Stadium (65,857), Tampa, Fla.
TV: ESPN (DirecTV 206)

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are coming off a home loss to rival Georgia that broke an eight game winning streak ... Georgia Tech had one of the better offenses in terms of yards per play in the ACC, but one of the worst defensively in the same category ... its triple-option attack is led by QB Josh Nesbitt, but he has two dangerous running backs at his disposal: Jon Dwyer and Anthony Allen.

Clemson: The Tigers are coming off a road loss to rival South Carolina that broke a six-game winning streak ... the Tigers had one of the best defenses in the league, but a middling offense ... fortunately for the Tigers, C.J. Spiller can provide instant offense from either RB or returning kicks ... the Tigers were +7 in turnover margin in conference games, best in the ACC.

Regular Season Meeting: Paul Johnson out-coached Dabo Swinney to a 24-7 lead at halftime ... Georgia Tech scored on an 82-yard run by Anthony Allen, an 85-yard punt return by Jarrard Tarrant and a fake field goal ... however, the Tigers shut down the Jackets' high-powered run game and took a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter ... a pair of late Scott Blair field goals gave Georgia Tech a 30-27 win.

What to Expect: The two highest-scoring offenses and two of the more exciting players to watch putting on a show.

Georgia Tech Wins If: It mitigates the effect of C.J. Spiller and controls the ball without turnovers like it did in the Virginia Tech game.

Clemson Wins If: It again shuts down Georgia Tech's triple option attack, doesn't get burned by big plays and gets an effective game from Kyle Parker.

Georgia Tech Links

From the Rumble Seat
Mash on the Gas
Macon Tech Talk

Clemson Links

Block-C
Shakin the Southland
Rally Death Valley

Georgia Bulldogs 30, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 24: Our Willie Outdistances Their Johnson

T Kyle King — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:18:26 -0000

At first, I did not believe.

I saw such upsets as the South Carolina Gamecocks’ win over the Clemson Tigers and the Mississippi St. Bulldogs’ win over the Mississippi Rebels, and I saw such near-upsets as the Alabama Crimson Tide’s close call against the Auburn Tigers and the Texas Longhorns’ close call against the Texas A&M Aggies, and I said, In each of those, the underdog had the advantage of playing at home.

I saw the Georgia Bulldogs go 74 yards in ten snaps---all of them running plays---for the opening touchdown at historic Grant Field, and I said, We looked good on the opening drive against the Oklahoma St. Cowboys, too.

I saw the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets held to three first-half points (and even those only after a Red and Black turnover at the visitors’ 40 yard line), and I said, The Engineers are a second-half team and Paul Johnson will make the halftime adjustments that allow him to out-scheme Willie Martinez.

I saw Demaryius Thomas break a couple of 2008-style arm tackles and take a third-down pass from Josh Nesbitt 76 yards for a touchdown on the opening series of the second half, and I said, I told you so.

Then I saw Caleb King go 75 yards for the score that put Georgia back out in front by two touchdowns on the very next play from scrimmage, and I said, This may happen.

As I indicated last night, I generally am pretty jaded where the Ramblin’ Wreck is concerned. I understand that the Yellow Jackets are our in-state rivals, but I was born in 1968, more than a decade after Theron Sapp broke the drought and a couple of years after Bobby Dodd retired. I have never seen a conference game between Georgia and Georgia Tech, but, in my first 40 years of life on this planet, I saw the Bulldogs beat the Golden Tornado 29 times. From 1991 to 2007, Georgia went 14-3 against Georgia Tech and 14-3 against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Then came 2008.

Since that time, I have had a Georgia Tech fan make a derogatory comment to me about Georgia while I was holding a piece of bread and she was holding the cup of juice into which I was waiting to dip the bread while receiving communion at church; I have had Georgia Tech fans in that same congregation who had not previously spoken to me in the entire time I have been a member there come up to me for the sole purpose of telling me how Coach Johnson had ended one winning streak and started another; I have had a Georgia Tech fan see my year-and-a-half-old daughter wearing a Georgia cheerleading outfit and say to her, "Are you ready to watch Georgia get their butts beat on November 28?"

These are the comments I’ve gotten from the Georgia Tech fans I like.

Accordingly, I feel safe in saying that no Georgia victory over Georgia Tech in my personal experience and my conscious memory has been quite so satisfying as last night’s was. This is so, in part, because of the level of sheer unmitigated obnoxiousness exhibited by Georgia Tech fans in the last year---a level unmatched by any fans of the Florida Gators, Tennessee Volunteers, or South Carolina Gamecocks I have ever encountered; a level unmatched by any Southern football fans I have ever encountered who were not fans of the Auburn Tigers (which is why I hate Auburn)---but also, in part, because Paul Johnson is an exceptional football coach who has molded the Yellow Jackets into a solid football team that will be an ACC contender for the foreseeable future. Georgia Tech is no pushover, nor will the Golden Tornado be during Coach Johnson’s tenure, which I expect to last for the remainder of his career. For the first time in my lifetime, we have ourselves a rivalry again.

That set of circumstances makes special a win that was not a fluke. Georgia led Georgia Tech in first downs (21-17), total offense (415-340), and rushing yards (339-205). It was a virtual dead heat in terms of penalties (each team drew five flags, with the Bulldogs being assessed 39 yards and the Yellow Jackets losing 35 yards) and time of possession (Georgia held the ball for 30 minutes and three seconds). At long last, the Classic City Canines came out ahead in turnover margin.

Joe Cox attempted only fourteen passes, but he completed eight of them to Red and Black receivers and none of them to Gold and White defenders. Caleb King and Washaun Ealey each averaged 9.2 yards per carry, with King gaining 166 yards on eighteen rushes and Ealey amassing 183 yards on 20 touches.

Georgia Tech had two weeks to prepare after running a late-season gauntlet of poor teams, while Georgia was playing without its best offensive player, A.J. Green, and (arguably) its second-best defensive player, Bacarri Rambo. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs stepped up, with four Georgia receivers posting double-digit receiving yardage.

For most of the game, it looked like the Red and Black won the coin toss and Mark Richt opted to have Paul Johnson call the visitors’ offensive plays while Mike Bobo handled those responsibilities for the home team. (Four straight incompletions to end the game? Really?) The Athenians ran the ball 44 times in 58 snaps and averaged 7.7 yards per rush to take the pressure off of Cox. To some extent, this was merely a happy fringe benefit of facing a questionable Georgia Tech defense, but it was nice to see the Bulldogs run the ball, with the result that the Classic City Canines won a game in which they never trailed.

Since tankertoad asked, I must say I agree with him on the third down call on the Bulldogs’ last meaningful drive. On the first six snaps of the series, Georgia ran the ball five times, all for positive yardage. The running game was working, picking up yards and running off clock. I’d have run the ball on third and four; had the play only picked up two yards---and every other running play on that drive had picked up at least two yards---Georgia would have faced the choice between a 49-yard field goal and going for it on fourth and two near the Georgia Tech 30 yard line.

I’m not going to criticize Coach Bobo too much for the pass play, though, because the first seven drives he directed produced three touchdowns and three field goals, and because sending Blair Walsh on to attempt a 55-yard field goal isn’t sheer lunacy, given his past accomplishments. Also, while we’re on the subject of the Georgia specialists, for all I can tell, Drew Butler may have spent his Saturday evening in Atlanta at the Cheetah with Kevin Butler. All right, he probably didn’t, but isn’t it nice to know our all-world punter was an arrow we were able to leave in the quiver?

Finally, to top it all off, the Bulldogs got the win without saving Willie Martinez’s job in the process. Georgia surrendered 21 points after intermission and was outscored in the second half, which demonstrates that, even though Coach Martinez came up with an effective game plan, his inability to make in-game adjustments remains a problem.

In short, I’m not happy with 7-5, and neither are you, but 7-5 is what I predicted back in the spring and it’s at least somewhat satisfying that, even in a down year, the ‘Dawgs can finish tied for second place in the SEC East and beat two of their three traditional rivals. Moreover, last night’s victory puts the Georgia-Georgia Tech rivalry into a new context.

Before, Yellow Jacket fans could claim---erroneously, yet with a straight face---that the hiring of Paul Johnson at the Flats marked a break point in the series, analogous to the hiring of Vince Dooley in the Classic City in 1964. Now, Bulldog fans can counter that, but for an ill-timed Richard Samuel fumble last year, we’d be sitting here today talking about Georgia going for a tenth straight series victory over the Ramblin’ Wreck in 2010. All of a sudden, "sea change in the rivalry" has dissolved and been replaced with "a lot of guys have won one in a row."

The best part of last night’s game, though, was Coach Richt’s anger after the Powerade bath and his terse insistence upon no smiles until the clock showed a trio of zeroes. In that moment, Mark Richt may well have found the happy medium he has been seeking.

What this program needs is not Evil Richt and not Hip Richt, but, rather, Righteously Indignant Richt. The adverb attests to the innate human decency and steadfast moral uprightness that cause us to admire Mark Richt and take pride in calling him our head coach, but the adjective indicates the hard-edged demand for discipline, execution, and performance that has earned men like Paul Johnson, Urban Meyer, and Nick Saban national championship rings.

Last night, in the image of Mark Richt victorious over a top ten team on the road, dripping wet, and hopping mad, we may have beheld the Coach of New Year’s Future, and the earliest inklings of the glory yet to come under the best head coach we have ever had. Mark Richt, like all Christians, isn’t perfect, but he’s working on it.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Nesbitt 2265, Referees 45

BirdGT — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:00:15 -0000

Josh Nesbitt has accumulated 2,265 yards of total offense this season on 343 plays. He's also GT's most penalized player (according to the play-by-play guys on RW.com). Nesbitt has racked up 7 penalties on the season: 6 delay of games and 1 celebration penalty. A measly 45 yards in penalties. There are 24 penalties that were not assigned a player's name either because multiple players caused the infraction or the penalty was declined and the stat keeper didn't take the name down.

GT has been credited with 74 penalties on the season but only 65 of them were accepted by our opponents. A grand total of 525 total lost yards due to penalties with a 53:21 ratio of offensive total penalties to defensive. Only FSU and Miami have accumulated more penalties in conference games than GT (we've also played more conf. games than most ACC teams).

GT's most common penalty is the offensive false start typically triggered by an offensive lineman out of sync with the snap count or an A-back moving too soon. The second and third most common penalties are holding and illegal blocking. If you were to divide GT's penalties into three basic categories of dangerous plays, procedural infractions, and subjective calls the breakdown would look like this:

I put holding and pass interference into "subjective" because those are usually judgment calls and typically not as dangerous as roughing the kicker, late hits, etc.. I didn't put the ratio but it goes like this for the above chart P:D:S = 36:20:18.

Now, here's an interesting take on how good Derrick Morgan is. He's leading the conference in tackles for loss and sacks and has not been called for roughing the passer or a late hit, yet. The only two times we were called for RTP were on blitzing linebackers. Morgan gets in and gets the ball carrier. That's it. I respect the cleanliness of our defense. Here are the penalties for our defense broken down by pass interference (PI), rough the passer (RP), offsides (OS), and late hits (LH):

Offensively, we get called a lot for holding and illegal blocking. I'm assuming most of the illegal blocking calls are chop blocks and the holding is typically on pass plays or edge run plays. I imagine the splits are tough on interior offensive linemen and pass blocking. Here's the breakdown of unsportsman like conduct (US), holding, illegal blocking (IB), late hit (LH), false start (FS), and delay of game (DOG):

Let me know your thoughts.