SB Nation - Michael Floyd

The Coaching Carousel's Effect on BC 2010

Brian @ BCI — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:25:27 -0000

More photos » by Richard Shiro - AP

Virginia's Al Groh is one of three coaches who won't be roaming the sidelines against the Eagles next season. (AP Photo/Richard Shiro)

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Brian: We aren’t three full days past the end of the regular season in college football and the axe has already been dropped on three of Boston College’s 2010 opponents’ head coaches.

Meanwhile, down in College Park, Ralph Friedgen’s future remains uncertain. Looking at the 2010 schedule, here is the Eagles’ list of opponents, their head coaches, and their current tenure at their school:

Opponent	Head Coach	Years	W	L	T	Pct.
Notre Dame	TBD	0	0	0	0	.000
VIRGINIA	TBD	0	0	0	0	.000
@ FLORIDA STATE	Jimbo Fisher	0	0	0	0	.000
@ Syracuse	Doug Marrone	1	4	7	0	.364
CLEMSON	Dabo Swinney	2	12	7	0	.632
@ DUKE	David Cutcliffe	2	9	15	0	.375
@ NC STATE	Tom O'Brien	3	16	21	0	.432
Hofstra	Dave Cohen	4	18	27	0	.400
Kent State	Doug Martin	6	24	46	0	.343
MARYLAND	Ralph Friedgen	9	66	46	0	.589
@ WAKE FOREST	Jim Grobe	9	59	51	0	.536
VIRGINIA TECH	Frank Beamer	17	185	92	2	.663

With over half of BC’s opponents having coaching staffs with less than 3 years of experience at the program, this has to be a positive for the Eagles going into next season, no?

Jeff: I would have to agree with you that this is a positive for BC, at least as it pertains to our in conference games. Let's say Maryland decides to make a coaching change as well. Then the Eagles will play 3 conference games against new coaches plus Notre Dame. I will expect victories in all three of those games with the Virginia and Maryland home games certainly being the most winnable conference games of next season. The Notre Dame game I am a little less confident about though because won't their new coach come in and win 9 or 10 games and take them to a BCS game which will then get him a contract extension?

Brian: Perhaps. But Notre Dame likely will have to get to 9 or 10 wins without the services of Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate, who both might jump to the NFL draft. In addition, the Notre Dame defense has been terrible this year. I'm not sure how they turn around their defensive unit. Finally, the schedule is much less forgiving next year than it was this year.

Regardless, looking at these programs and the tenure of the head coaches at those schools, you have to be pleased with how the schedule is shaping up. Consider that the coaches at Hofstra and Kent State will be two of the more tenured coaching staffs on the Eagles 2010 schedule.

Jeff: This is the first time we've really talked about next year's schedule and the ACC slate looks awesome. Since we learned this year the importance of BC's home field advantage, having Clemson and Virginia Tech come to the Heights next year looks to be a huge advantage. In addition, Florida State is the only road game we'll have against a team that is bowl eligible this season. Despite Duke improving this year, they are still Duke and Thaddeus Lewis played his last game Saturday. Without Riley Skinner, traveling to Wake Forest does not appear to be a very high hurdle either.

Brian: The trip to Winston-Salem always seems to give the Eagles fits. Tom O'Brien should also have the Wolfpack improved from this year. And sleeping on Duke is a dangerous proposition (just ask Virginia, Maryland and NC State). That being said, three trips to the Research Triangle, a road trip down I-90 to play Syracuse and a trip to Tallahassee to play first year coach Jimbo Fisher seems like a much more manageable away schedule than this year's gauntlet that included trips to Death Valley, Lane Stadium and Notre Dame Stadium.

Unlike this year where the Eagles played nine bowl teams, BC will only face four bowl teams in 2010. Two (possible three?) of those teams will have new head coaches. Not exactly a murderer's row for next season. The turnover in the coaching staffs at Notre Dame, Virginia, Florida State and potentially Maryland all help make the schedule that much more manageable in 2010.

Fat Lady Is Singing: Notre Dame Ends Disappointing 2009 Campaign With 45-38 Loss To Toby Gerhart and Stanford

CW — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 11:00:17 -0000

It would make sense for the last game of Charlie Weis' career to go like this. Fun facts that seem indicative of the entire five year tenure:

The Notre Dame offense scores a lot of points (38).
The Notre Dame defense gives up a lot of points (45).
Irish QB throws for a lot of touchdowns (5), and two Irish receivers have monsters games (Floyd and Tate, carrying on the legacy of Shark and MoSto).
Irish defense has no answer for the opposition's running game (Gerhart pounds his way to 205 and 3 scores).
The Irish tackles give up huge sacks and look like they're standing in stone in key situations.
The Irish defensive backs don't turn to look for the ball.
Notre Dame loses.

And not a single one of those things is surprising at all. A fantastic game by the triumvirate of Clausen, Tate and Floyd, who just laid waste to the Cardinal defense in every possible way. It felt disingenuous to talk about Heisman contenders the entire night with Golden Tate putting up another brilliant effort and never really include him in the conversation. If Jordan Shipley steals his Biletnikoff or he's not a consensus All-American, I will lose my damn mind. 93 catches, 1496 yards and fifteen touchdowns, with two rushing touchdowns and a punt return score to boot. The Golden Tate 2009 highlight reel on YouTube is going to be my one stop shop for sadness killing, right after this (audio NSFW due to being too smooth/profane):

Not really surprised by anything on the defensive side of the ball, save for the few plays when Toby Gerhart didn't just truck someone over. Brent and Kirk implied Tenuta might have been resisting letting Stanford score that final touchdown, and if so, really? Maybe he is that bad of a football coach. That was the only option there, and Notre Dame's biggest mistake might have been tackling Gerhart on the prior play that got the Cardinal down inside the five. Of course, maybe Tenuta knew that Stanford pass rushers would have a free lane to Jimmy on the final series and wanted to save us all some heartache.

(Allow me to repeat this: Not a single person should complain about the Irish "laying down" or "giving up" on that final touchdown. That was the only possible option there, and anyone who argues otherwise is an idiot. It's what the Packers did in Super Bowl XXXII against the Broncos in an attempt to get the ball back, with the same less-than-stellar result That's the only option there. Also, could we have fired Jon Tenuta on the field right after the game?)

Well, if you thought that was fun, the real fun really starts. Let's hope there's a clean and quick transition, but I don't think any change is going to keep Jimmy Clausen in an Irish uniform next season. If the incoming head man can find a way to keep Golden Tate around, well, that's a step in the right direction. It's going to be an extraordinary busy week as we recap the Weis Era, follow the coaching search and try to figure out if and where Notre Dame will be bowling.

Finally, apropos of nothing, Joe McCoy and Jim Harbaugh are the same person.

Mountain West and their Road to the BCS: 11/6/09

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:04:07 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

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Time to feature games of interest that will affect the possibility of the Mountain West getting into the BCS this year. These games will not include all the teams ahead of any MWC team, but will be games that the higher ranked team may lose and thus drop in the rankings All rankings listed are from the BCS.

TCU still controls their own destiny if they win out. As always absolute chaos is my goal in an effort to promote change.

All time eastern:

New Mexico @ 14 Utah (MTN, 4pm)

Only reason Utah is here is because they technically are still in the BCS race by winning out and a Boise loss. Utes are experimenting at the quarterback position with most likely Jordan Wynn getting the nod.

MWC rooting interest: The Utes of course, because if they can at least get into the top 14 to possibly force the BCS to take two non-BCS.

9 LSU @ 3 Alabama (CBS, 3:30pm)

This game will shape the SEC West to see who gets to go to the conference title game. Now, if my research is right the winner clinches the SEC West title. With only two teams per league able to get into the BCS the loser is essentially eliminated from the BCS and will be heading to the Cotton Bowl.

MWC rooting interest: LSU, because TCU should be able move ahead of Alabama --at least temporarily-- and move closer to the number two spot that even with an LSU win is still out of reach.

Connecticut @ 5 Cincinnati (ABC, 8pm)

Cincy wants revenge after last year beat down, and only conference loss en route to their first BCS apperance. Cincinatti is the obviously better team, but the quarterback situation is still undecided whether starter Tony Pike or backup Zach Collaros will start.

MWC rooting interest: Connecticut, this is a long shot with the way the Bearcats playing at home and are just really good. A Bearcat loss does essentiall the same as an LSU win over Alabama.

22 Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC, 2:30pm)

Notre Dame gets WR Michael Floyd back after breaking his collar bone earlier in the season. Navy gave Ohio State all they could handle on opening day, and will need to have a similar game. The Midshipmen need to control the time of possession and try to get pressure on QB Jimmy Clausen.

MWC rooting interest: Navy, but not likely. The Irish only need to get into the top 14 to be considered, but everyone knows if they are available they will get in.

Northwestern @ 4 Iowa (ESPN, Noon)

Northwestern is not all that good, but Iowa seems to struggle against all opponents and has yet to blow any team all year.

MWC rooting interest: Northwestern, because Iowa is due for a loss someday, and if Iowa some how sneaks into the title game they will get crushed. Who am I kidding they will get smoked in the Rose Bowl as well against Oregon.

16 Ohio State @ 11 Penn State (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30pm)

The Terrelle Pryor Nutcracker shirts are being recalled, but there is still reason to watch this game. The winner will move into the top 14 of the BCS, and Ohio State controls their destiny to the Rose Bowl if they win out. This game also is known as 'what quarterback is under-achieving the most.'

MWC rooting interest: Penn State, not for BCS standings but if the Buckeyes lose then ESPN's Gameday will most likely be headed to Fort Worth with the Utah vs. TCU game.

12 USC @ Arizona State (ABC, 8pm)

USC is trying to recover from their worse loss in the Pete Carrol era. Arizona State could be in for a beat down by the revenge factor by the Trojans.

MWC rooting interest: Arizona State, but really? No way Peter Carrol is losing three conference games, and USC is trying to stay in the picture for a BCS bowl game.

15 Houston @ Tulsa (CBS College Sports, 7:30pm)

Tulsa used to have a great offense, but it could re-emerge with the lackluster defense of Houston. An interesting fact is that if Houston QB Case Keenum throws for 400 yards his passing average goes down! Expect this to have a lot of points and go down to the end.

MWC rooting interest: Houston. They should be in the top 14 in the BCS standings and be an at-large choice. While they probably will not be choosen, but it narrows the BCS schools to be choosen and possibly for the BCS cartel to take two non-BCS teams in Boise or TCU/Utah and take away money from the Big Six leagues.

Raking The Muck: St. Michael Rises Again

CW — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:36:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Sept. 5, 2009, file photo, Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd heads upfield after making a catch during NCAA college football game against Nevada in South Bend, Ind. Floyd will play against Navy on Saturday, six weeks after breaking his left collarbone. Coach Charlie Weis said Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009, that the 6-foot-3, 220-pound sophomore was cleared to play Monday for the No. 19 Fighting Irish. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)

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A lot ofimportant stuff in regards to injuries in Coach Weis' Tuesday. First, the good:

Michael Floyd is cleared to play for the Navy game (!!!!!). Floyd had 13 catches for 358 yards and five touchdowns before going down with a broken collarbone in the Michigan State game. With Golden Tate playing at the level he is, Jimmy is going to have a field day back there.
Robbie Parris is also back after Taylor Mays' attempted homicide. It's nice to see college football writers across the country starting to realize that Mays isn't actually a top-tier safety in the Eric Berry/Earl Thomas/Kyle McCarthy-mold, but really just a head hunter who we all were led into thinking was good. I was guilty of it as much as anyone, but writers are redeeming themselves nicely in noticing this, although it'll be interesting to see if NFL scouts pick up on it. (Probably not.) Nice to see Parris back, especially since Robby Toma and Duval Kamara have got some reps in his absence. Receiving corps is looking particularly deep now.

And the not so good:

Back-up quarterback and heir apparent to the throne whenever Jimmy leaves, Dayne Crist, is out 4-to-6 months with a torn ACL. He could be back for spring practice, but nothing is certain there. If you were on the Notre Dame message boards this week, you might have been as surprised as I was to find that A) Only Notre Dame players enter the draft early and B) Only Notre Dame players get injured. I should start selling "Hold me, I'm Irish" t-shirts on this site for all of the emo Fighting Irish fans, we'd make a killing.
Trevor Robinson is doubtful for Navy, and Armando Allen is day-to-day. If I had my druthers, I'd try to limit their action against the Midshipmen and get everyone up to one hundred percent for the throwdown with Pitt next Saturday night.

The most important things from these bullets are obviously St. Michael's return and Crist's injury. The offense might almost be unstoppable with Floyd back, but sadly, getting a big fourth quarter lead will mean increased reps for Evan Sharpley, who won't be on the team next season. John Goodman will now be your emergency third string quarterback, so um, Wildcat anyone?

We'll get into a more extensive look at the team in the coming weeks, but I'm very worried about the Irish basketball team this season. Even though they are playing an embarrassingly awful non-conference schedule, the Big East is still really good and Scott Martin's injury was an absolute killer. Martin was the second most important player on the team after first-team preseason All-American Luke Harangody, as was going to fill in the Kurz/Ayers roll as big forward who could shoot perfectly. Now we have a team that goes seven deep and relies on three-point shooting, only there are about two shooters you'd feel comfortable with.

Oh, what is it that you're drinking there, Seth Davis? May I have a sip?

Oh yeah, indeed:

Maybe I'm overreacting to one practice, but this team was bigger, deeper and more talented than I anticipated. Clearly, the Irish do not have much margin for error, and they certainly cannot afford any more injuries. But they've got the best player in the league, if not the country, and that's not a bad place to start. Notre Dame might have a low ceiling, but it also has a pretty high floor. Write it down: The Gody is going back to the NCAA tournament.

During the course of the article, Davis praises everyone on the team for something and compares Tim Abromaitis to Matty Carroll. I obviously hope he's right, but I'm going to maintain some skepticism until we actually see it mesh on the floor. The first non-tomato can for the Irish is Northwestern on November 27. They'll then play either Saint Louis or Iowa State, with the only opportunity for a big non-conference win coming December 19, when the UCLA Bruins roll into town. The Big East slate isn't as tough as it was last year with UConn and Louisville twice, but it's still not going to be easy. I will leave you with my single favorite part of the story:

When Cleveland Cavaliers general manager Danny Ferry told Harangody that the Cavs considered former Louisville forward Earl Clark a better pro prospect, Harangody told him, "I have a f------ problem with that."

Staying over at SI.com, Stewart Mandel spends part of his mailbag advocating a plus-one plan. If you frame the plus-one as a natural step to getting to a playoff, then I can accept it. If you frame it as some sort of cure to the many ills of the collegiate football postseason, you're an idiot. Tell me, if we're using the "Mandel Plan," what do you do in years like 2002 or 2005, when you have two clear, undefeated teams at the top heading into the bowls? Or, even more fun, what about in years like 2007, when it's a giant clusterf*ck? Who would play in the plus-one game then? LSU vs. USC? Or Georgia? Or Kansas? Or West Virginia?

Mandel tacks this onto the bottom:

I'm sure I will now be deluged with 800 e-mails picking my proposal apart, but keep one thing in mind before you hit send: There's at least a glimmer of hope the Mandel Plan could become reality (the SEC and ACC are already open to a plus-one), whereas any larger playoff proposal -- no matter how many political action committees form to support it -- still has a 0.0 percent chance of getting adopted any time soon.

Great, so I'm supposed to be excited your shitty plan has a chance to come into reality? Awesome. Thanks for that caveat, Stewart.

In the latest College Football Is Going To Hell News, they just added the Dallas Bowl for New Year's Day 2011. What esteemed program will you see play on what used to be a holy day for college football? I'm glad you asked!

Jan. 1, 2011 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Big 12 (No. 7 team)
Jan. 1, 2012 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Conference USA team
Jan. 1, 2013 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Big 12 (No. 7 team)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Big Ten (No. 6 team) vs. Conference USA team

Can I set my Tivo now?! Gee golly, can't wait to see Purdue and and UTEP square off while I'm nursing a hangover. IS NOTHING SACRED TO YOU PEOPLE?!

Updated BTBS Projections

Bill C. — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:00:35 -0000

Week 10 picks are coming up tomorrow, but keeping with the every-other-week timeline, it's time to check in on current BTBS projections for the rest of the season. Preseason projections have finally completely phased out of the rankings, meaning there have been some pretty decent rises and falls since last time we put on our projecting hat. And speaking of projections, we'll revisit the preseason projections to who we got exactly right and who we completely whiffed on in the preseason.

UPDATE: the original projections had Baylor beating Tech with home-field advantage. I forgot the game was in Arlington. Wiping out the home-field adjustment, Tech now wins.

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Nebraska	6-2	9-4	Cotton
Missouri	5-3	9-3	Sun
Iowa State	4-4	7-5	Texas
Kansas State	3-5	5-7
Kansas	2-6	6-6	Insight
Colorado	1-7	2-10
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	6-2	8-4	Holiday
Oklahoma State	5-3	8-4	Alamo
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	Independence
Texas Tech	4-4	7-5	New Mexico
Baylor	0-8	3-9

Nailed It (or almost nailed it): Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska
Not so much: Iowa State, Oklahoma
I mentioned in the preview piece that "not having an 'All-Americans lost' qualifier instead of just 'starters lost' helps Missouri out quite a bit" and that Missouri probably wasn't going the projected 10-2, but right now, they're still coming close. If Missouri wins out (and they're still projected to do so), the only game the projections will have missed on Mizzou was the Nebraska Monsoon, which still looks like it will make the difference in the division race.
The main thing the projections missed was Iowa State's overachieving, not that anybody else actually predicted that correctly. Meanwhile, obviously the projections weren't able to predict "OU will get a total of 7 quarters out of Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham combined, and OSU will lose Kendall Hunter to injury and Dez Bryant to Deion Sanders"), so those are pretty excusable misses, I would think.
The North is still a complete question mark, but take these projections to mean that it still looks like the teams most likely to take the title are still Missouri and Nebraska; the numbers still have no idea what to do with K-State, who have looked great and terrible on offense, great and terrible on defense, and great and terrible on special teams. They're absolutely better than they were a month ago, but overall the numbers still don't like them much.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson	6-2	10-3	Orange
Boston College	5-3	8-4	Emerald
Wake Forest	4-4	6-6	Meineke Car Care
Florida State	3-5	5-7
N.C. State	1-7	4-8
Maryland	1-7	2-10
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Georgia Tech	7-1	11-2	Chick-Fil-A
Miami-FL	6-2	10-2	Gator
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	Champs Sports
North Carolina	3-5	7-5	Music City
Duke	3-5	5-7
Virginia	3-5	4-8

Nailed It: Clemson, BC, N.C. State, Virginia
Not So Much: Florida State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke
The numbers have been on the Clemson bandwagon since the beginning of the year, and that hasn't changed since the projections have been phased out. I still have them as the best overall team in the conference, beating Georgia Tech in a rematch in the ACC Championship game.
I'm telling you, never bet against BC. They look horrendous half the year, and their style isn't fun to watch, but they win games, and they will probably continue to do so. "No Mark Herzlich? Okay, I guess we'll just have to send a true freshman out there to (maybe) win ACC Defensive Player of the Year, then."
So remember when I said "I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see"? Remember that? Neither do I.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Pittsburgh	6-1	10-2	Orange
Cincinnati	6-1	11-1	Fiesta
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
Connecticut	3-4	6-6	International
Louisville	2-5	5-7
Rutgers	1-6	6-6
Syracuse	1-6	4-8

The projections currently have Pittsburgh beating Cincinnati by 1.6 points on December 5 to win the conference title. Really, that would be a best-case scenario for the conference, as it would probably result in them getting two BCS bids. The rest of their bowl slate is so god-awful that that's pretty much the only way they can get a bit of the showcase spotlight.
Nailed It: West Virginia, South Florida
Not So Much: Rutgers, Cincinnati
I'm generally considering "Nailed it" to be within one win of what's projected now, while "Not So Much" is within three wins or more. I was in the ballpark with a lot of these picks, but I nailed very few. Not that anybody nailed Cincy...
Remember when I had Rutgers projected to win big? Good times.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Iowa	7-1	11-1	Rose
Penn State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Wisconsin	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Ohio State	6-2	9-3	Outback
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Purdue	4-4	5-7
Michigan State	3-5	5-7
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Alamo
Northwestern	2-6	5-7
Illinois	2-6	3-9
Indiana	1-7	4-8

Nailed It: Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana
Not So Much: Illinois
Pretty much nailed most of this conference. Ironically, the only team I missed badly was Illinois...and I still had Illinois projected to be worse than most people thought.
Pretty interesting situation for the conference here--four teams are projected at either 5-7 or 6-6 now, meaning they could end up with anywhere between five and nine bowl-eligible teams. The MAC is praying it's five, I'm sure. As always, the MAC is projected to have about 23 6-6 teams, but that's neither here nor there.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
East Carolina	6-2	7-6	St. Petersburg
Marshall	5-3	7-5	New Orleans
Central Florida	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Southern Miss	4-4	6-6	Papajohns.com
UAB	4-4	4-8
Memphis	2-6	3-9
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Houston	6-2	11-2	Liberty
SMU	6-2	7-5	Hawaii
Tulsa	5-3	7-5	Armed Forces
UTEP	4-4	5-7
Tulane	2-6	4-8
Rice	0-8	0-12

Nailed It: Marshall, UAB, Central Florida, Houston, SMU
Not So Much: Southern Miss, East Carolina, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice
I officially have no idea what to think of Tulsa anymore. G.J. Kinne got a concussion, and apparently that's part of the reason for their baffling 14-point loss to SMU, but still...it just seems they should be better than they are. They're still looking at a bowl bid, but they're not looking like the C-USA favorite anymore, like I had them in August.
Nailed the sleeper-ness of Marshall and SMU!
Meanwhile, Southern Miss still looks like a decent team, but they haven't gotten the breaks, and East Carolina is shaping up to be one of those "defies what the stats think of them" teams.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	--	9-3	Gator
Navy	--	8-5	Texas
Army	--	3-9

Here's what I said about Notre Dame in the preview: "A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8." Right now, they're looking a hair better than projected, but not much. They still have two games (Pittsburgh and Stanford) projected within four points and all four remaining games within 11 points. They could still be looking at either 7-5 or 10-2 when all is said and done. Kudos to them for figuring out ways to win despite the loss of Michael Floyd. And kudos to their fans for surviving SIX STRAIGHT GAMES DECIDED BY A TOUCHDOWN OR LESS. If they were four points worse this season, they'd be 3-5 right now; four points better, and they'd be 7-1.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Temple	7-1	9-4	EagleBank
Ohio	6-2	8-4	GMAC
Bowling Green	5-3	6-6
Kent State	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	3-5	5-7
Akron	2-6	3-9
Miami-OH	2-6	2-10
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan	8-0	11-2	Pizza! Pizza!
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6
Toledo	3-5	5-7
Ball State	1-7	1-11
Eastern Michigan	0-8	1-11

Nailed It: Bowling Green, Ohio, Miami-OH, Northern Illinois, Toledo,
Not So Much: Akron, Temple, Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan
The talent level in this conference is so close that it's hard to avoid missing badly on some teams...and miss I did. Granted, I got a lot right too, but still. Buffalo's another "defies the stats" team, while Temple was really close to a high projection but didn't quite manage it.
No matter what, thank you to the MAC for always producing enough 6-6 teams that all of the bowls will be able to fill all of their slots.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Poinsettia
Air Force	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Colorado State	3-5	6-6	Armed Forces
San Diego State	3-5	5-7
UNLV	2-6	4-8
Wyoming	2-6	4-8
New Mexico	0-8	0-12

Nailed It: TCU, BYU, Utah, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming
Not So Much: New Mexico
Overall, this was probably my best set of picks. The top three teams are all looking at exactly the record projected for them in August, and the only real miss was "New Mexico is going to be worse than you could possibly imagine."
Right now, I have TCU sneaking past Boise State for the Fiesta Bowl bid. Poor Boise is being forgotten, I think, and at least TCU still has Utah on the schedule for one more reasonably-sized game.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	7-2	10-2	Holiday
Arizona	6-3	7-5	Sun
Oregon State	5-4	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	5-4	6-6	Emerald
California	4-5	7-5	Las Vegas
Washington	4-5	5-7
UCLA	3-6	6-6	Insight
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington State	0-9	1-11

Nailed It: Oregon, USC, Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State
Not So Much: Oregon State, California, Washington
Another lovely set of picks. Oregon State and Cal have both underachieved a bit but can still turn things around at least somewhat. Meanwhile Washington has clearly achieved at a higher level than expected. Still, though, you have to say this much: the projections CRUSHED it on the Oregon projection. Am very happy with that one.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Tennessee	5-3	8-4	Capital One
Georgia	5-3	7-5	Outback
South Carolina	3-5	6-6	Liberty
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	Papajohns.com
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	8-0	12-1	Sugar
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
LSU	4-4	8-4	Cotton
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Music City
Ole Miss	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7

Nailed It: Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
Not So Much: Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Allow me a little bit of a chest-pound here. Nailing Florida and Alabama was relatively easy, but Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss? There was pretty high degree of difficulty there. Looks like I overstated Georgia's and Vanderbilt's potential and didn't account for Mississippi State being as salty as they are, but otherwise I'm really happy with how this has turned out.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	GMAC
Florida Atlantic	5-3	6-6
UL-Monroe	5-3	6-6
Arkansas State	3-5	4-8
Florida International	3-5	3-9
North Texas	2-6	4-8
UL-Lafayette	2-6	4-8
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Nailed It: Troy, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Florida International
Not So Much: North Texas
Another nice set of picks. Todd Dodge's Mean Green are also saltier than expected, but otherwise this was pretty much dead on. Hooray!

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Pizza! Pizza!
Fresno State	6-2	8-4	Hawaii
Nevada	6-2	7-5	New Mexico
Idaho	5-3	8-4	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8
San Jose State	3-5	4-8
Hawaii	2-6	5-8
Utah State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	3-10

With Boise missing out on the BCS bowls, I looked for the most appealing spot for them to pull what they did last year in the Poinsettia Bowl--finding another big-time matchup through at-large bids. There were really none coming about, unless they wanted to take on a 6-6 major conference team like Texas Tech or UCLA, so I paired them with the class of the MAC, Central Michigan, in Detroit. Not as exciting as last year's Boise-TCU game, but fun nonetheless.
Nailed It: Boise State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, New Mexico State
Not So Much: Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho
Nevada struggled much more in the early going than expected, though they seem to be figuring things out now. Meanwhile, Idaho was projected to be TERRIBLE, so power to them for proving me wrong by about eight games.

In all, I do have to be happy with the way things have turned out so far, especially considering that this was my first stab at projections. I'm looking at a much broader base of data for next year (should have full play-by-play for 2004-2009), which in theory makes for more accurate projections. Either way, though, color me satisfied.

Bowl Projections

I'm bolding the awesomely fantastic matchups, italicizing the awful ones.

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (7-5) vs Texas Tech (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	South Florida (8-4) vs East Carolina (7-6)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Troy (9-3) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs California (7-5)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Utah (9-3) vs Oregon State (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Fresno State (8-4) vs SMU (7-5)
12/26	Little Caesar's Pizza! Pizza!	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Boise State (13-0) vs Central Michigan (11-2)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	West Virginia (9-3) vs Wake Forest (6-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Boston College (8-4) vs Stanford (6-6)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Auburn (7-5) vs North Carolina (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Ole Miss (7-5) vs Texas A&M (7-5)
12/29	EagleBank	ACC #8 vs Army	Temple (9-4) vs Central Florida (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Virginia Tech (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Idaho (8-4) vs Air Force (7-5)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Oklahoma (8-4)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Navy (8-5) vs Iowa State (7-5)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Tulsa (7-5) vs Colorado State (6-6)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	Missouri (9-3) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Kansas (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Georgia Tech (11-2) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Ohio State (9-3) vs Georgia (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Wisconsin (10-2) vs Tennessee (8-4)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	Miami-FL (10-2) vs Notre Dame (9-3)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Iowa (11-1) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (12-1) vs Penn State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Northern Illinois (7-5) vs UConn (6-6)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Kentucky (6-6) vs Southern Miss (6-6)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Nebraska (9-4) vs LSU (8-4)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Houston (11-2) vs South Carolina (6-6)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Oklahoma State (8-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Cincinnati (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Pittsburgh (10-2) vs Clemson (10-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs Ohio (8-4)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Seriously, some FANTASTIC matchups here.

-- Best New Mexico Bowl ever.
-- Boise/CMU really could be fun, though I think Boise would end up winning by 21.
-- Temple's going bowling!!!
-- USC-Oklahoma!
-- Missouri-Arizona could be underrated simply because I'm not sure people realize how well Arizona is playing.
-- Georgia Tech-Arkansas would pit the S&P+'s two favorite offensive teams.
-- Miami-Notre Dame!!
-- Iowa-Oregon would be an interesting contrast, to say the least.
-- Alabama-PSU might not be exciting football, but it would be awesome to see them on the same field, especially at the Sugar Bowl, where they played one of the best games of all-time 31 years ago.
-- TCU-Cincy would be a fun matchup of good defensive teams with underrated offenses.
Minimal awful matchups, really, though you couldn't pay me to watch much of either Ohio State-Georgia or Wisconsin-Tennessee, especially if Miami-Notre Dame was on around the same time.
The Big East really needs a better set of bowl affiliations...guess they've already worked their way toward that for next year.

Golden Is Thy Name: Tate and Hughes Lead Notre Dame Rout of Washington State

CW — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:52:37 -0000

More photos » by BAHRAM MARK SOBHANI - AP

about 1 month ago: Notre Dame player Sergio Brown celebrates with a back flip after defeating Washington State, 40-14 in an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 in San Antonio, Texas. (AP Photo/Bahram Mark Sobhani)

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Some Irish fans - we'll call them the lunatic fringe - have been complaining that Notre Dame hasn't been blowing the doors off of teams because of their vast talent advantage, or whatever. Granted, every team they had played against Nevada had been a BCS team that either has a great win or very competitive game against a top team. We were not going to get a poor effort from them, and due to the abilities of Jimmy Clausen and friends, the Irish were 5-2.

This game - this weird Halloween night clash with a Pacific Northwest foe near the Mexico border - is what it looks like when you play a team where you have a dominant talent advantage. You control the lines on both sides of the ball, you get your back-ups plenty of reps and everyone gets to focus on enjoying the band and going home happy. There were obviously some very bad things to come out of last night: the injuries of still-unknown consequence to Trevor Robinson and Dayne Crist, plus Jimmy re-aggravating the turf toe. But the Irish did what they needed to do as they get ready for a tricky November slate, and now to the bullet points.

Golden Tate is a top two or three Heisman candidate at this point, and anyone who has him lower than that is simply voting for the big name quarterback who was supposed to be at the top of the ticket before the season started. All he does is score touchdowns - out of the backfield, on catch and runs, tearing the ball away from three defenders on a jumpball in the endzone - and jump into bands and refuse to get tackled at any point. He's amazing, he's got two go-ahead fourth quarter touchdowns (Michigan State, Boston College) and a huge game against Southern Cal. He played better as more of the defense focused on him after Michael Floyd's injury. Golden Tate is a Heisman front runner, and anyone who doesn't have him there doesn't deserve a vote.
Great work by the defensive line all night, as KLM led the team in tackles with five. Ian Williams had a pick, Ethan Johnson was a constant presence in the backfield and Wazzu running back Dwight Tardy didn't really get going into the second string was in. Hopefully they enjoyed rushing the passer this week, as the next game against Navy won't warrant too many of those opportunities.
Excellent game by Robert Hughes and Theo Riddick as Armando Allen sat a spell. Hughes had 182 yards of offense on 28 touches - just beautiful, gaudy numbers as he consistently provided a nice check down for Jimmy - while Riddick flashed some speed with 12 for 75.
Dayne really flashed the gun on that pass to John Goodman. Let's hope his leg(s) is okay, although it's not a good sign when the pain from an injury is so intense a player just drops the ball. Jimmy, please stay? Thanks.
Tony Dungy compared Clausen to Drew Brees at halftime. I like it.
Duval Kamara went from being written off by Irish fans to becoming a very nice part of this receiving corps. It was also nice to see Kyle Rudolph back in the mix at receiver, as well as Mike Ragone getting his first catch of the season (which seems impossible, yet is true).
As far as Irish bowl chances go, they are two very tough road games and two tricky home games away from winning out, so let's not get too involved with that. However, it is worth glancing at: If the Irish go 10-2 they will have a shot at a BCS game, a good chance at the Cotton Bowl (depending on how LSU looks in November) and become a virtual lock for the Gator. If they go 9-3, I imagine it's almost a definite trip to the Gator against the Canes or Hokies. There are all fine games against good teams, so the focus of Irish fans should be on just winning, baby.

Survivor: South Bend - Usual Suspects, Notre Dame Hold Off Boston College 20-16

CW — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:48:36 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

about 1 month ago: Notre Dame wide receiver Golden Tate scores the game winning touchdown in the fourth quarter against Boston College in an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009. Notre Dame defeated Boston College 20-16. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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If you find yourself playing the lottery, it seems like the luck of the Irish will be on your side if you toss out 5, 7, 23 and 28. The Irish defense alternated between getting completely gashed by another true freshman quarterback and picking him off, while Jimmy Clausen-to-Golden Tate resulted in two touchdowns. (With Tim Tebow tossing two pick sixes and Mark Ingram almost fumbling Rocky Top into an upset yesterday, why not Golden Tate for Heisman?) Kyle McCarthy had two picks as he again was perhaps the only redeeming part of the secondary, while Manti T'eo continued to add to his legend, leading the team in tackles and piling up two and a half tackles for loss. Armando Allen and Duval Kamara also had nice games for the offense, while Brian Smith's late interception sealed the game for the Irish after they allowed an unimaginable fourth and 17 conversion.

A lot of teams found themselves in struggles yesterday, and the Irish were no exception, but at least the streak against Boston College is over and the teams is now 5-2 on the season heading into the extremely unnecessary and weird Washington State game in San Antonio. The defense did a fantastic job bottling up Montel Harris, but the secondary couldn't have looked worse most of the time, with the same usual suspects looking completely lost, or being in position and not making a play on the ball. On offense, Kyle Rudolph was a non-factor again (1 for 11), while Roby Toma and John Goodman served as the third receiver behind a nice little game from Kamara (7 for 60).

Parts of the team are progressing nicely (defensive line, in particular) but there are still a lot of issues to be worked out. Overall, though, I'll take 5-2 over 4-3, and while none of the November games are going to be easy, all of them are very much winnable. Let's see this team take care of business against Washington State, plug Michael Floyd back in against Navy or Pitt and close the season out strongly.

The Holy War and the Big Finish

Brian @ BCI — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:05:24 -0000

More photos » by Santiago Flores - AP

3 months ago: A new billboard facing the Notre Dame campus is shown on Aug. 31, 2009 in South Bend, Ind. The billboard, offers a not-so-subtle reminder to Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis that the past two seasons have not been up to the standards of the storied Fighting Irish football program. (AP Photo/South Bend Tribune, Santiago Flores)

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Brian: Jeff is already on his way to Austin this weekend to participate in the Livestrong Challenge (good luck Jeff!) so you are left with me and my thoughts on tomorrow's Boston College-Notre Dame game. Let's take a look at the matchups on both sides of the ball ...

Boston College Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense. While we all know about BC's offensive woes on the road at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, the Eagles' offense is much further along now than they were in week 3 or even as recently as week 6. Last week you could see Dave Shinskie and the Eagles offense rebound from the poor performance in Blacksburg and expose a lifeless NC State defense, particularly in the run game. Luckily for the Eagles tomorrow, Notre Dame's defense - while not as punchless as Tom O'Brien's unit - is still not very good. The Irish rank 63rd in the country in rush defense, 96th in pass efficiency defense and 104th in total offense. Sobering numbers. I think there is something to be said for the Irish playing deep into the fourth quarter in each of their first 6 games - the defense hasn't been able to stop much of anything.

In the running game, with Josh Haden unavailable, the Irish will likely focus on Montel Harris this week and on containing him. Hopefully Rolandan Finch can fill in for the injured Haden. The onus will certainly be on Dave Shinskie and the offensive line to give Shinskie time to work. The Eagles may be facing a bit of an uphill battle on the offensive line without the services of starting left tackle Nate Richman, who was seen with a walking cast on his left foot. Jon Tenuta runs a blitz-happy 3-4 package that the offensive line will have to pick up quickly if the Eagles have any chance of moving the ball. The offensive line has played fairly poorly in both of our road games, but something tells me they will have it together more this weekend. The Eagles have a tendency to get up for this game. If the Eagles can get the ball in space past the blitzing Irish front 7, they should have success moving the ball.

In the receiving game, BC can't afford as many dropped passes as they had last week, especially with the weather forecast for tomorrow. (Seriously, what is up with the rain following me to BC games this year? Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame?!). Jordon McMichael is back in the lineup which is a good thing.

Boston College Defense vs. Notre Dame Offense. While I have a hard time trying to hold back vomit when I hear about Jimmy Clausen and his Heisman campaign, Clausen is a very good quarterback. Notre Dame is very much a pass first, run second offense, and Clausen has plenty of weapons in the receiving corps to burn the Eagles through the air. The Irish will be glad to have the services of Robby Parris, who injured his right knee, hip and ankle on Notre Dame's fake field goal attempt in the fourth quarter against USC. Thankfully, Michael Floyd - who is by far the Irish's best offensive weapon - will still be out this weekend. The go-to receiver will be Golden Tate and Kyle Rudolph is also a threat at the tight end spot. While Clausen won't burn you with his legs like Tyrod Taylor or Russell Wilson, he can definitely find his spots as a more pure-pocket passer a la Riley Skinner or Christian Ponder.

While you will undoubtedly hear all about Boston College's struggles on the road this season, I think you will see the Eagles put in a much better performance on the road in South Bend this weekend. The game with Notre Dame always seems to bring the best out of BC. Also, having been to both Notre Dame Stadium, Lane Stadium and Death Valley, Notre Dame Stadium is certainly the least hostile of those three environments. With the weather forecast calling for plenty of rain and a high in the mid-40s, I expect a low-scoring, methodical (read: ugly) affair, with neither team pulling away until late in the fourth quarter.

Big Finish

Jeff: In HD's article on BC-ND today, Jim Ramella - a huge fan of the movie Rudy - is quoted as saying, "I mean, who didn’t want to go to Notre Dame as a kid?" Ramella said. "There’s no movie about Boston College." Your thoughts?

Brian: Give it some time, Ramella. I'm sure a movie could be written about The Miracle in Miami or Herzlich's story in the next few years. Besides, Rudy is overrated as a movie. That's right. I just went there.

Brian: The city of Charlotte - led by former Bank of America CEO Hugh McColl - is selling Swofford and league officials on the idea of keeping the ACC Championship Game permanently in Charlotte. Your thoughts?

Jeff: It's probably the right thing to do but why not wait to commit to Charlotte until after next year's game at least. The problem is that if next year Clemson ends up playing Virginia Tech in Charlotte, of course it would sell out. We really need to see how Charlotte would do if BC played Miami or a matchup similar to that.

Jeff: HD has now jumped on the Eagles bandwagon and has BC playing in the ACC Championship Game. Some sort of reverse jinx going on here?

Brian: I don’t know. It seems like she changes her mind every week, and she’s had too many back-handed compliments about BC for me to take her seriously.

Brian: The Wake Forest blog Blogger So Dear came out with his 2009-2010 basketball preview and has the Eagles finishing 10 of 12 in the ACC regular season standings and staying home come tournament time. Really? Your thoughts?

Jeff: What happened to the Eagles finishing 3rd or 4th in the conference and perhaps being ranked nationally?

Jeff: Blue and Gold Illustrated writes that the Irish’s six game losing streak to BC is a streak on par with Notre Dame losing four straight to Northwestern (1959-62) and four straight to Air Force (1982-1985). Your thoughts?

Brian: Losing to Northwestern and Air Force four straight years is way worse than losing six (or potentially seven) to the Eagles. C'mon now.

Brian: DeLeon Gause will honor the memory of Connecticut cornerback Jasper Howard, who was stabbed to death on Saturday night. This weekend Gause will wear Howard’s No. 6 instead of his normal No. 9. Gause and Howard competed against one another in high school in Miami. Straight class, no?

Jeff: Yep.

Jeff: You're heading to the game tomorrow. Are you gonna try to hang out with all the students in the RV lot? Or are you going to realize you are too old and they don't want you there and do your own tailgate?

Brian: I'm only a week older than you are dude. Are you suggesting you can't hang and tailgate with students anymore?

Brian: Last one, you’ve already sold your prediction rights to Rakes of Mallow, so no more predictions this week. In Bob Ryan’s article this week talking about the BC-Notre Dame series, he suggests that if BC loses this week, Notre Dame would be more likely to reschedule the Eagles. Agree?

Jeff: I want to say no because I would hope that they are not that shortsighted that one game result will make a difference in rescheduling the Eagles. Had they won the last six I think they would have already signed a deal.

Pick 5

Brian: Last week I knocked the cover off the ball going a perfect 5-0, while Jeff struggled and turned in a 1-4 performance. Up 9 games with half a season to go, pressure is on to keep my 9 game lead on Jeff.

Boston College (+8) at Notre Dame
Georgia Tech (-5.5) at Virginia
Wake Forest (+2.5) at Navy
Central Michigan (-8) at Bowling Green
Iowa (0) at Michigan State

Jeff:

Arkansas (+6.5) at Mississippi
Clemson at Miami (-4.5)
Penn State (-4.5) at Michigan
Louisville at Cincinnati (-18)
Oregon State (+21) at USC

Five Good Minutes: Rakes Of Mallow

Brian @ BCI — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:00:49 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Notre Dame WR Robby Parris attempts to score in front of USC's Taylor Mays on a fake field goal during the first quarter of USC-Notre Dame. Parris would be injured on the play and is doubtful for this weekend. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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The Eagles now take a three week break from ACC play and face the Irish this weekend. What could be better than Holy War week?

To preview this weekend's game between the Eagles and the Irish, we welcome CW from Rakes of Mallow to the blog for Five Good Minutes. Welcome!

BC Interruption: Notre Dame's defense can't seem to stop anybody lately. Jon Tenuta's defense currently ranks 104th in total defense and 117th in pass defense. What do you attribute to the Irish's poor play on defense? Personnel? Scheme? Tenuta? A little of A, a little of B, or maybe all three?

Rakes Of Mallow: Up front I’m getting more comfortable with how the line and backers have been playing the last few games after some interesting performances early on. They contained Joe McKnight and the USC run game well, although you would have liked to see some more pressure. The game prior the line held up at the goal line against nearly a dozen attempts by Jake Locker and company. Obviously Montel Harris is very good and the Irish will have to focus on slowing him, but the front of the defense has been playing well. There are still some issues with just plain tackling.

The secondary? I can comfortably say the answer is all three. Irish fans have no idea what’s going on, and would have rated this unit as the trustworthiest coming into the season with the talent assembled and rather solid prior results recorded. Beyond Kyle McCarthy’s sterling play at safety, the secondary has been a trainwreck, with guys running around aimlessly as receiver after receiver streaks freely downfield. At practice this week, there’s a competition for Harrison Smith’s safety spot underway, which is nice, because Harrison had some difficulties on Saturday. Despite his middling results so far this season, it’s very possible David Shinskie will have a nice little Heisman campaign started by midway through the third quarter.

BCI: Speaking of Heismans ... much has been made about Jimmy Clausen and his potential Heisman campaign. How has Clausen been able to succeed this season? Who are the playmakers on offense whose names we'll hear called frequently on Saturday?

ROM: Clausen has been able to succeed because he’s grown into probably the best passer in the country. He’s deadly accurate, throws a great deep ball, and between the improvements of the offensive line and Clausen’s growing pocket presence, he hasn’t been sacked nearly as much as in his first two seasons. Irish fans are just enjoying Clausen for the rest of this season, as his name keeps creeping up Mr. Kiper’s big board.

Clausen’s main weapon is Golden Tate, a former high school running back who has morphed into an All-American candidate at wide receiver. Now a junior, Tate has progressed from a guy who could just run fly routes to a complete receiver who occasionally enters the backfield for some exciting Wildcat (or GoldenEye, if you’ll allow) formations. For his size he is amazingly difficult to bring down, and I can safely say he will break a big play or two in this game. Kyle Rudolph is a beast at tight end and has two critical fourth quarter catches so far this season (and almost had a third against Southern Cal), while Robbie Parris was fantastic as the second wide receiver opposite Tate against the Trojans. All-world talent Michael Floyd has been sidelined with a collarbone injury and isn’t likely to return for a couple more weeks, but if you see Number 3 improbably step onto the field, that is not a good sign.

BCI: It seems that every week Notre Dame is either winning or losing close games late in the fourth quarter. Why would Notre Dame be a 10 point favorite to anyone?

ROM: A fantastic question! Not really sure, although I’m thinking this may be more of a lingering effect of BC’s implosion in Blacksburg than anything else? I honestly don’t know, but I’ve found college lines are a whole lot screwier than the NFL, where Vegas usually dominates. I imagine the money is going to shift it towards the Eagles by a tick, but yeah, not sure why it opened so high rather than trying to sucker in some overly confident Irish partisans (I don’t even know if that group of people exists, but Vegas would want to milk them just in case).

BCI: It's safe to say USC is the #1 game you wanted to win this season. Does Boston College come in at #2 given the losing streak? What does the BC-ND series mean to Irish fans?

ROM: I think Michigan would have been #2 or #1A, at least for me, just because I really hate them. My feeling toward the BC-ND series is sort of ambivalent, but not in the obnoxious "I don’t care about BC/FREDO" sort of way, just in that I don’t have any prior experience with the Eagles that gets me particularly fired up for them. I wasn’t an Irish supporter until starting classes there in August 2004, so I don’t have any sort of grudge from 1993 or 2002, nor do I hail from the New England area, so I don’t have to hear about it after Eagles victories. I’m not sure I’ve ever even had an extended conversation about this series with an Eagle alum before, now that I think about it. I want to beat Boston College Saturday because the Irish haven’t in a while (partly because of good BC teams, partly because Notre Dame didn’t get a crack at them in either ’05 or ’06) and because I wouldn’t be able to deal with the "Hold me, I’m Irish" emoposting that would implode the Irish internets in the aftermath of a loss.

BCI: How secure is Charlie Weis' job? Does a close loss to Southern Cal warrant a stay of execution? What if the Irish lose to both BC and Stanford and go 0-4 against rivals this season? Then what?

ROM: A lot of insane Irish fans wanted Weis to go 11-1 or better to keep his job, but they are think it’s 1977, wonder why Notre Dame doesn’t use a fullback on every play and are still getting over the fact women are now allowed to enroll at our fine university. A realistic expectation for Weis going into this regular season was 9-3, but I don’t think the coach would want that third tick to come against Boston College in the aftermath of the USC loss. If Weis finishes up at 8-4 or better, I don’t think he’s going anywhere, but there will be some howling for his head if he drops one more game, let alone two.

I also wouldn’t list Stanford as a rival. I’m not sure there’s an Irish fan that would list them in the top five of teams they really get fired up to play/beat. It’s USC, then Michigan, then a hazy mix of a half dozen teams in which BC is prominently included. It’s not a matter of who any potential losses are coming to over the last six games, just that they’re happening at all that’s going to turn up the heat on Weis.

BCI: Last one. Notre Dame's two losses on the season have come against true freshman quarterbacks - Tate Forcier and Matt Barkley. Do you expect a third true freshman to beat Notre Dame this weekend? Make a prediction. Who wins this one? What's the score?

ROM: I’m not going to try and glean anything from Eagles games, since they’ve been so topsy-turvy this season, so let’s just go with the prevailing trend this season and say Irish win a close one late? I like the ND defenses chances at bottling up Harris – he’ll probably hit triple digits, but it won’t be like the numbers against NC State – but the BC defense dominated this game last year, and while the offense is light-years ahead of where it was November 2008, Clausen has to go out there and put some points up. I usually avoid making predictions, but since you asked, I’ll say 30-21 Notre Dame, with a late, late touchdown turning a 23-21 nail biter into something a little more comfortable.

BCI: Thanks for joining us CW.

For more information on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, be sure to check out Rakes of Mallow.

University of Southern California Trojans at University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Preview

CW — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:00:42 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

2 months ago: In this photo made Oct. 3, 2009, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen, left, celebrates a touchdown against Washington during an NCAA college football game in South Bend, Ind. Clausen isn't the same quarterback who walked out of the Los Angeles Coliseum seven games ago following USC's 38-3 win over Notre Dame that he describes as the toughest loss of his life. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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This game needs little introduction. It is perhaps the greatest rivalry in college sports, with no conference affiliation or in-state feud to sustain it, just a quest for continued excellence and national titles on both sides. The fact the rivalry has lost some of its luster in recent years also needs little explanation as, save for one fantastic game in 2005, the Irish have been little more than a speed bump for the Trojans as they roll to top five finish after top five finish. If Charlie Weis and Jimmy Clausen want their Notre Dame careers to take the next step, they need to win this game. Considering how the last few games have gone (the Irish haven't scored a touchdown in two years during two rather humiliating contests), there is some work to do.

Irish Defense vs. Trojan Offense

Clausen vs. Pete Carroll's defense gets all the headlines, so let's start on the other side, with Matt Barkley squaring off against Jon Tenuta's defense. Barkley beat out Aaron Corp and Mitch Mustain to become starting quarterback out of camp and is undefeated in that role, but the offense revolves around a meat grinder of a running game, with five monsters blowing giant holes in the defense for a variety of tailbacks. With Stafon Johnson still recovering from that awful throat injury, all-world recruit Joe McKnight is the featured back, a dazzling player more than capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. McKnight is the consummate home run hitter, and helping to clear the way is one of the bigger x-factors in the game, Stanley Havili. There are few fullbacks in the country that are capable of taking out a middle linebacker on one play and splitting out to wide receiver and catching a fifty-one yard fly route on another like Havili did against Cal. Allen Bradford will spell McKnight, and depending on CJ Gable's health, you may see him or Marc Tyler get a few touches over the course of the afternoon. With Anthony McCoy a capable blocker and pass-catcher at tight end, the Irish will have to be wary of the passing game even when Southern Cal goes to a power running formation.

The aptitude of the Trojan running game raises an interesting question: Do you sell out to stop the run, loading up the box and sending in a variety of run blitzes, or do you respect Barkley's arm? Notre Dame Stadium was as loud as any venue in the world in 2005, but I'm not sure how rattled Barkley will be after leading a fourth quarter comeback in the Horseshoe. He hasn't been asked to do a whole lot, but he's been absurdly competent and has the arm to make any throw the Trojans ask of him. If the Irish front seven can't at least put a dent in the Trojan rushing attack, then there isn't much of a chance of slowing this offense. If there are eight or nine in the box, Barkley is going to play action and find Williams, or the returning Ronald Johnson, or McKnight, or Havili, or one of the talented tight ends. I wish it were more complicated than that, but I don't think Barkley is going to lose this game for the Trojans if the Irish drop it into his lap. Perhaps that's a strategy you have to try, but I don't think it will end well.

If the Irish can limit big plays - a tall task against an offense like USC possesses - there's a chance the Trojans shoot themselves in the foot trying to string together long drives. They have been awful on third downs, not particularly disciplined when it comes to penalties and have a penchant for putting the ball on the ground (which is one reason Washington pulled off the upset, along with Barkley and Taylor Mays missing the game).

This Irish defense has had issues, yes - that's perhaps the understatement of the season - but there have been flashing moments of brilliance. A good Purdue offense was held scoreless for nearly three quarters. Washington's offense only mustered three first half points after their opening drive. There have been massive breakdowns at horrible times, yes, but this team has the potential - the coaching, the recruits, the motivation, the home crowd - to stop the Trojans. It will take everyone playing at their peak, but the Trojans have been slowed before, and this Irish defense has stood up to some talented offenses when need be. If they don't wrap up the speed merchants who are going to be getting the ball most of the game, be prepared for another game like 2008, or 2007, or 2003, or 2004...

Irish Offense vs. Trojan Defense

When it's strength versus strength - Weis' offense versus Carroll's defense- something will have to give. As I wrote about earlier in the week, neither team has played a unit anywhere near the caliber of the one they'll be facing off against tomorrow. A lot of Irish fans seem to want to establish the run first, but lining up in the I-formation and pounding the Trojans might resemble a suicide mission. Their defensive line is deep and talented, and their linebackers can cover ground on anything going outside. When the Irish run, it seems like a fine idea to keep the Trojans spread out with three or four wide and use the strength of the Notre Dame offensive line - Robinson, Olsen and Stewart - to pop some draws up the middle. If the Trojan front isn't as formidable as it seems (and it seems awfully damn formidable), then adjust and take a few more cracks at them. However, I have no desire to start the game with an I-formation and a two yard loss just so some fans get their fullback fix. (That being said, welcome back, James Aldridge. We need all hands on deck for this.)

Jimmy Clausen is the best player on the team, and while the Irish need balance, they're also going to need a Herculean effort from their QB1. We can pine about how this game would be different with Michael Floyd, but he's a few weeks from returning and Clausen will just have to make do with the tremendous talent remaining at the skill positions. Golden Tate will draw a lot of attention from the Trojan defense, but Weis has been playing a shell game with him since Floyd's injury, and I don't see him suddenly making it easy to bracket his main playmaker. Kyle Rudolph will face some athletes who are more than capable of matching up with him, but he's already shown he can come through when it matters. My primary concern is the continued lack of a definite answer at the second wide receiver position. Whether it's a consistent rotation or one standout performer, someone is going to need to give Clausen somewhere to go when Mays is blanketing Rudolph and a double team has latched onto Golden.

The Trojan pass rush is among the best in the nation, and if Paul Duncan and Sam Young don't seal the edges to protect their quarterback, this offense is going to look like it did in the lights of the Coliseum last year. If I were Weis, I would lean on the no-huddle spread. Not a hurry-up, but simply getting to the line in an effort to limit USC's substitutions, which will in turn limit the effectiveness of that tremendous defensive line depth. Quick drops, quick reads and keep them guessing. Toss in some pro formation and wildcat to keep things interesting, but the Weis offense has always been at its best when it's spread out, in a rhythm and keeping the defense off balance. This will obviously be impossible if there are a flurry of false start and illegal motion penalties, so it would be nice if those were at a minimum.

The Trojan defense hasn't given up a passing touchdown all season and Mays gives the cornerbacks an ability to press up and take chances, but if Clausen can't effectively move the ball through air, the Irish have little chance. He'll need some help from his running backs, but the biggest match-up on the field is how Clausen deals with the pressure, reads Carroll's coverage and finds the correct option. He was 11 for 22 for 41 yards and two interceptions last year, but that Jimmy is long gone. The 2009 Jimmy Clausen is up for this challenge, and I think he'll respond well to it.

Inane ramblings and a vague prediction

Over the past five years, I think I've been respectful of - perhaps even deferential to - the Trojans. They've been the class of college football in the 21st century, continually finishing at the top of the polls and one amazing Vince Young performance away from seven straight Orange/Rose Bowl wins, with victories in Lincoln, Columbus, Auburn, South Bend, Fayetteville, Charlottesville and Landover (against Virginia Tech) thrown in just for fun. I almost never feel good about an Irish game going into it, and especially not against the Trojans, but I find myself oddly at peace about this clash. (There's a very good chance that I've just accepted the fact that if Notre Dame loses this game, the majority of Irish literature I read daily on the internet will become unbearable. As you read on, do not discount this fact that I'm just looking at this whole thing through shamrock-colored glasses because I've experienced the alternative and it's too unbearable to contemplate.)

As I've stated all week, these men of Troy do not jump off the screen at you like some of their past versions. They are obviously dripping with talent, but it's raw, and it's beatable. Washington already knocked them off. Ohio State was very close. The rest of their opponents were either tin cans or a Cal team that was still trying to get its torso back in order after Oregon had ripped its heart out the week prior. People are correct to say this is a giant test for the Irish, but they're downplaying what it means to the Trojans. It won't have any effect on their Rose Bowl chances - the trip to Autzen on Halloween will most likely decide that - but as far as national championships go, there are no more toe stubbings available for the men of Troy.

Of course, Notre Dame and Charlie Weis have considerably more to prove, as there are still plenty of questions after dodging raindrops to a 4-1 open to the season. The Irish lost to the only team with a winning record they've played, and barely survived against a slate of mid-tier Big and Pac Ten teams. But every game, they show off something new that gives fans a little bit of hope. Against Michigan, it was finding two key touchdowns and a necessary pick to rally from an eleven point fourth quarter deficit. Against Michigan State, it was recovering from the loss of their best weapon on offense and another fourth quarter hole in front of a home crowd that was more anxious than supportive. The next week it was domination that slipped away due to a couple poor defensive possessions, but Clausen-to-Rudolph fixed everything. Then there was goal line stand after goal line stand against Washington, the reemergence of Robert Hughes, the ridiculous production of Golden Tate, and again, Clausen-to-Rudolph.

Everyone wanted this team to just be great from the word go in September, but teams usually can't just flick a switch. You have to learn greatness, and more importantly, earn it. This squad bottomed out in November of 2008, with the losses to Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse and Southern Cal. Perhaps it was in Hawaii, or the practices in the cold of the South Bend winter before, that made them look like a completely different team as they mauled the Rainbow Warriors. It's a look in the eye that hasn't faded since. They kicked the crap out of Nevada, punched Michigan in the mouth repeatedly with Armando Allen, then showed tremendous guts in three straight games where lesser teams would have just said "You know what? We're losing. We'll put it together and go get them next week." The offense is a well-oiled machine, led by the best passer in the country who has a support system that has him in ideal conditions to earn that rating. The defense has the horses to slow up Troy, and for the first time in a few years, there's a placekicker that inspires confidence when he walks onto the field

Then you have the intangibles, and the mounting frustration of being on the wrong side of a beat down every season. There's a west coast quarterback who could have followed in the path of two recent Heisman winners in his own backyard but didn't, and has gotten his ass handed to him the last two years for that decision. There's a freshman receiver playing against his hometown school who wants to show them that he also made the right choice, and a freshman linebacker who'd love nothing more than the same thing. No matter how long these guys have been on this team - three months or going on five years - they've never beaten USC. Most of them have never even been close, and for the few fifth year seniors who started to storm the field like the rest of us in 2005, they have to have a burning desire to just take back control of this series and get the respect they want.

Since the dazzling 2005 offense moved on, games like the Rose Bowl against Penn State where the Trojans storm out to a giant lead are the exception, not the rule. The way USC wins is by slowly grinding you, continually throwing haymakers on both sides of the ball until you just break down and end up on the other side of a three touchdown loss. Normally it's a touchdown here and a field goal there and next thing you know some freak tailback is taking a wheel route seventy yards for a score and you immediately realize there's no way your favorite is coming back. They have the swagger and the confidence that no matter what the situation is, they'll make a play and win because hey, they're USC. For the first time in a long while, Notre Dame has a little bit of that same confidence. It's not a confidence where they can slip n' slide on the sideline four days before a giant rivalry game, but it's growing. There is no doubt that the Irish have to play great to win, and they will need some breaks and a little bit of luck along the way. But - and this is a little different from the past few seasons - they have shown over the last six games that greatness is attainable. Maybe it's not there consistently yet, but the flickers are there.

If USC has any lapses, like trailing 3-0 against San Jose State after the first fifteen minutes, Notre Dame will have points on the board. They have to have points on the board after the first quarter. They need touchdowns, not field goals, and need to continue the trend of doing a relatively good job of protecting both the ball and their quarterback. The numbers tell you the USC defense is good, and I don't doubt that it can consistently deal out some pain, but they have not had to deal with a quarterback like Clausen yet. (Locker is good, but he's still learning Sarkisian's system and hiccups were inevitable, like at Stanford. Pryor is still a mess and Riley looked like a deer in the headlights from his initial drive-ending pick on.) If the Trojans can't slow down the Irish, then the pressure goes onto Barkley. He's been calm, cool and collected up until this point, but he's also been either been out in front or in low-scoring slugfests in his other four starts. How will he respond to a shootout, on the road, in front of a crowd that's ready to burst with another chance like 2005? (Probably pretty well, but it's a potential factor that could lean towards the Irish.)

I loathe making predictions and have no idea how things will go Saturday, but all I can say, for really the first time this season and for the first time in years against Southern Cal, is that I like our chances. I will most likely end up eating these words come darkness tomorrow, but for now, I am at peace. Backs are against the wall, echoes are awakened and there are seven years of pent-up frustration that need to be released at some point.

October 17th around 3:30pm seems like as good as time as any to begin.

Go Irish, Beat Trojans.