SB Nation - Michael Egnew

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

Bill C. — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Image via The Trib's G.J. McCarthy

You may have noticed that, somewhere around 1pm yesterday, the title of yesterday's "Targets and Catches" post changed to "Targets and Catches (Part One)." That's because I figured out the next direction I wanted to take the concept of targets and couldn't wait to get started on it.

As discussed yesterday, the concept of targets (catches + incomplete passes intended for a given receiver) versus catches is a pretty good one, despite the likely flaws in the ways target data is collected (dropped/tipped passes that become interceptions don't have target data attached, not every scorekeeper probably records targets the same way, etc.). It allows us to look into a receiver's reliability in ways that simpler measures do not, and once national data is collected on this (offseason project #12,424), it might give us a way to measure a quarterback's performance independent of the quality of his receivers (hey Uribe Auction, here's how we get to Receiver Independent Passing Stats, or RIPS...I love it when a plan comes together).

But simply looking at a players Catch% (Catches per Target) does a disservice to those who are likely to run deeper, lower-percentage routes. How about we do this as well: create a Yards Per Target measure. Yards Per Catch is a good way to measure a receiver's explosiveness, and wouldn't the incorporation of target data create something that shows us both explosiveness and reliability? Let's try that.

Below are tables for 2006-09 giving us the following information:

Catches
Yards
Catch% (Catches divided by Targets)
Yards Per Target

2006

2006 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Chase Coffman	TE	58	638	65.2%	7.2
Martin Rucker	TE	53	511	77.9%	7.5
Will Franklin	WR	48	829	57.8%	10.0
Jared Perry	WR	37	429	67.3%	7.8
Brad Ekwerekwu	WR	32	430	64.0%	8.6
Tommy Saunders	WR	25	271	73.5%	8.0
Danario Alexander	WR	15	251	71.4%	12.0
Jason Ray	WR	6	50	40.0%	3.3
Tony Temple	RB	6	34	85.7%	4.9
Earl Goldsmith	RB	5	59	100.0%	11.8
Greg Bracey	WR	3	79	50.0%	13.2
Marcus Woods	RB	2	11	40.0%	2.2
Jimmy Jackson	RB	1	-2	50.0%	-1.0
Andrew Hoskins	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	291	3,590	66.0%	8.1

Here's where we start to see the value of Will Franklin. The 'Copta had an awful catch rate this season, but as we see here, a) he made up for it with his explosiveness, and b) being a deep threat means you're probably seeing more low-percentage passes. Meanwhile, tight ends running high-percentage routes will have good catch rates, but their Yards Per Target figures show that while it's good to have high-percentage targets, there isn't necessarily a lot of explosiveness there.

Two other interesting things to note:

1) Danario was very clearly showing his big-play potential early on. It really is a damn shame that he ended up having to fight so many injuries, but on the bright side, if he hadn't, he'd have almost certainly gone pro last year.

2) Clearly we should have been passing to Earl Goldsmith more often. Ahem.

2007

Image via the inestimable Bill Carter

2007 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Martin Rucker	TE	84	834	77.8%	7.7
Jeremy Maclin	WR	80	1,055	72.1%	9.5
Chase Coffman	TE	52	531	80.0%	8.2
Will Franklin	WR	49	709	64.5%	9.3
Tommy Saunders	WR	41	397	74.5%	7.2
Danario Alexander	WR	37	417	77.1%	8.7
Jared Perry	WR	13	152	65.0%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	10	70	71.4%	5.0
Jason Ray	WR	8	61	80.0%	6.1
Tony Temple	RB	7	68	77.8%	7.6
Jimmy Jackson	RB	6	30	100.0%	5.0
Earl Goldsmith	RB	4	20	66.7%	3.3
Greg Bracey	WR	3	53	33.3%	5.9
Blake May	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	394	4,397	73.2%	8.2

And here's where the numbers even out for Senor Goldsmith.

Even though his YPT dipped in 2007, Franklin was still a decent weapon here, averaging over 9.0 per target (which appears to be a pretty good number) and, as we must not forget, becoming one helluva downfield blocker for Maclin. In all, Chase Coffman was the most reliable target this season, but obviously the WRs were more dangerous, even though they didn't really thrust too many nunchuks.

(Non-RMN regulars just read and re-read that last sentence 5-6 times, then gave up on figuring it out what it meant. Here's the explanation.)

2008

Bill Carter again

2008 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Jeremy Maclin	WR	102	1,260	75.6%	9.3
Chase Coffman	TE	90	987	88.2%	9.7
Tommy Saunders	WR	72	833	78.3%	9.1
Jared Perry	WR	41	567	68.3%	9.5
Derrick Washington	RB	29	277	76.3%	7.3
Danario Alexander	WR	26	329	60.5%	7.7
Andrew Jones	TE	20	146	83.3%	6.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	9	98	69.2%	7.5
Earl Goldsmith	WR	5	58	83.3%	9.7
Michael Egnew	TE	4	22	50.0%	2.8
Jimmy Jackson	RB	3	26	75.0%	6.5
Wes Kemp	WR	1	15	50.0%	7.5
Jon Gissinger	TE	1	10	100.0%	10.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
Forrest Shock	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	403	4,628	76.0%	8.7

Here's where Chase Coffman became the best tight end we'll ever see. He was so reliable that throwing to him actually resulted in more yards per target than Jeremy Maclin, All-American. Here's also where Jared Perry, a.k.a. Will Franklin 2.0, began to show value. He was a reasonably reliable option his first couple of years (obviously targeted much more in 2006 than 2007, when Maclin emerged), but while he still couldn't hit 70% from a Catch% perspective, his big-play ability went up a notch, and he went from averaging 7-8 yards per target to over 9. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson registered with numbers very similar to Perry's freshman numbers, albeit on a small sample size.

2009

Yup, Bill Carter.

2009 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Danario Alexander	WR	107	1,644	73.8%	11.3
Jared Perry	WR	46	695	53.5%	8.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	37	458	60.7%	7.5
Wes Kemp	WR	23	335	52.3%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	23	99	69.7%	3.0
Andrew Jones	TE	7	39	58.3%	3.3
Rolandis Woodland	WR	4	23	66.7%	3.8
Michael Egnew	TE	3	25	60.0%	5.0
De'Vion Moore	RB	3	13	100.0%	4.3
Kendial Lawrence	RB	2	42	100.0%	21.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	2	19	66.7%	6.3
T.J. Moe	WR	2	8	40.0%	1.6
Gilbert Moye	RB	1	5	50.0%	2.5
TOTAL	ALL	260	3,405	63.9%	8.4

And here's where we find out just how amazing Danario Alexander has been this season (as if there were any doubt). Looking only at receivers who were targeted at least ten times in a given season, Alexander's 11.3 per-target average is topped only by ... 2006 Danario Alexander, who was targeted only 21 times. For ~~Domino Axelrod~~ Danario to be both this reliable and this explosive has just been amazing.

Here are the overall averages per position:

WR: 67.3% catch rate, 8.7 yards per target
TE: 77.2% catch rate, 8.2 yards per target
RB: 75.0% catch rate, 5.5 yards per target

So for the last four seasons, here are your top ten in terms of Yards Per Target (with a minimum of ten targets):

Danario Alexander (2006): 12.0 per target (on 21 targets)
Danario Alexander (2009): 11.3 (145)
Will Franklin (2006): 10.0 (83)
Chase Coffman (2008): 9.7 (102)
Jeremy Maclin (2007): 9.5 (111)
Jared Perry (2008): 9.5 (60)
Jeremy Maclin (2008): 9.3 (135)
Will Franklin (2007): 9.3 (76)
Tommy Saunders (2008): 9.1 (92)
Danario Alexander (2007): 8.7 (48)

Will Franklin, you are absolved.

Danario Alexander, you officially have a case for having been the best receiver in Mizzou history.

Targets and Catches (Part One)

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

One of the measures I am looking to track more in-depth in the future, in terms of my play-by-play data, is the notion of catches versus targets. In the play-by-play data exists a line that I have yet allowed to go unrecorded: "Pass incomplete to _____." Obviously I record that the pass is incomplete, but I have not really paid attention to who the pass was intended for. It's a rather objective measure -- does everybody record who a pass was intended for the same way? If the QB is throwing the ball away and it goes 20 feet over a certain receiver's head, does it count as an incompletion "to" that receiver? Does every score-keeper even keep track of this? Plus, if a ball is tipped by a receiver and intercepted (e.g. Jerrell Jackson in the Oklahoma State game), the "intended for" bit isn't recorded. Clearly this is a piece of data that is rather inconsistent.

That said, this is also one of those measures where you figure that the inconsistencies balance out over time. Even if it doesn't paint a perfect picture, it probably tells an interesting story. Therefore, let's take a look at how our view of a receiver's (or quarterback's) performance changes when adding in "intended for" data.

The categories below are:

Catches: receptions
Targets: receptions + incomplete passes intended for that receiver (as recorded in the play-by-play data). In general, you can think of those incomplete passes as either being a) dropped or b) too well-covered to be completed. If your QB is accurate, you will obviously catch more of your targeted passes, but if you struggle to get open and clear space from the guy covering you, a lot more of your targeted passes are going to fall incomplete.
Catch%: the percentage of "targets" a receiver catches
Target%: the percentage of a team's overall targets aimed at a specific receiver

Without further ado, let's take a look at the last four years of Mizzou "target" data and see what it tells us.

2006

Image via Phoebe Sexton / Columbia Missourian

2006 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Chase Coffman	58	89	65.2%	20.2%
Will Franklin	48	83	57.8%	18.8%
Martin Rucker	53	68	77.9%	15.4%
Jared Perry	37	55	67.3%	12.5%
Brad Ekwerekwu	32	50	64.0%	11.3%
Tommy Saunders	25	34	73.5%	7.7%
Danario Alexander	15	21	71.4%	4.8%
Jason Ray	6	15	40.0%	3.4%
Tony Temple	6	7	85.7%	1.6%
Greg Bracey	3	6	50.0%	1.4%
Marcus Woods	2	5	40.0%	1.1%
Earl Goldsmith	5	5	100.0%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
Andrew Hoskins	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	291	441	66.0%	100.0%

WRs: 60.1% of targets
TEs: 35.6%
RBs: 4.3%

Before looking at ensuing seasons, it is hard to get a grasp on what these numbers actually mean, but a couple of things should stick out pretty quickly. First, thanks to a midseason bout with the dropsies, Chase Coffman's numbers were only decent, not great. Martin Rucker was a rather automatic target at TE, but Coffman wasn't amazing. Meanwhile, if your #1 WR is only catching 58% of the passes thrown at him, that is going to do a number on your completion percentage.

Anyway, before we try to interpret this too much, let's take a look at how 2007 unfolded.

2007

Image via ESPN.com

2007 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	80	111	72.1%	20.6%
Martin Rucker	84	108	77.8%	20.1%
Will Franklin	49	76	64.5%	14.1%
Chase Coffman	52	65	80.0%	12.1%
Tommy Saunders	41	55	74.5%	10.2%
Danario Alexander	37	48	77.1%	8.9%
Jared Perry	13	20	65.0%	3.7%
Derrick Washington	10	14	71.4%	2.6%
Jason Ray	8	10	80.0%	1.9%
Greg Bracey	3	9	33.3%	1.7%
Tony Temple	7	9	77.8%	1.7%
Earl Goldsmith	4	6	66.7%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	6	6	100.0%	1.1%
Blake May	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	394	538	73.2%	100.0%

WRs: 63.9% of targets
TEs: 32.2%
RBs: 3.9%

Despite a deep, experienced cast of receivers (Rucker and Franklin were seniors, Coffman and Saunders were juniors), Jeremy Maclin came out of nowhere to become Chase Daniel's most trusted receiver. His 72% Catch% was much higher than Will Franklin's 58% from the season before. Meanwhile, MotherRucker stayed right around 78% while Chase Coffman improved dramatically, from 65% to 80%. Franklin did improve to 65%, but he was still a far less reliable target than others around him. Of course, he obviously ran deeper routes than guys like Coffman, Rucker or Saunders, so that might have something to do with it. Then again, were his routes any different than those of Maclin? Maclin still outshone him in that regard.

With Maclin and an extra year of experience for Chase Daniel, the overall Catch% rose from 66% to 73% in 2007. This, of course, tells us nothing about how many passes Daniel chose to throw away (which would just go in the play-by-play as "pass incomplete" with no "intended for" information), but it does show that Daniel was completing one more pass for roughly every 14 catchable balls in 2007, and that could make a difference of 2-3 completions per game.

2008

Image via Chris Lee / Post-Dispatch

2008 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	102	135	75.6%	25.5%
Chase Coffman	90	102	88.2%	19.2%
Tommy Saunders	72	92	78.3%	17.4%
Jared Perry	41	60	68.3%	11.3%
Danario Alexander	26	43	60.5%	8.1%
Derrick Washington	29	38	76.3%	7.2%
Andrew Jones	20	24	83.3%	4.5%
Jerrell Jackson	9	13	69.2%	2.5%
Michael Egnew	4	8	50.0%	1.5%
Earl Goldsmith	5	6	83.3%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	3	4	75.0%	0.8%
Wes Kemp	1	2	50.0%	0.4%
Jon Gissinger	1	1	100.0%	0.2%
Brandon Gerau	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
Forrest Shock	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	403	530	76.0%	100.0%

WRs: 66.6% of targets
TEs: 25.5%
RBs: 7.9%

In 2008, Missouri lost Martin Rucker and his 78% catch rate but still improved as a team, from 73% to 76%. Danario Alexander aside (this was the year he was recovering from knee injuries and was clearly not as confident/aggressive a receiver), just about everybody showed improvement. Coffman improved to a sickening 88% (that means that eight of every nine balls that were thrown at him and were even remotely catchable, were caught...yeah, he deserved the Mackey Award), Saunders improved to 78%, which is the highest you'll see from a highly-targeted receiver, and even Maclin improved to 76%. Having a ton of reps with the same quarterback helped a ton, I'm sure, as did the fact that said quarterback (Daniel) was as automatic as a computer in his reads, especially over the first half of the season.

So what happens when you lose your quarterback and your top three targets? As shocking as it may sound, your numbers go down!

2009

Image via the one, the only Bill Carter

2009 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Danario Alexander	107	145	73.8%	35.6%
Jared Perry	46	86	53.5%	21.1%
Jerrell Jackson	37	61	60.7%	15.0%
Wes Kemp	23	44	52.3%	10.8%
Derrick Washington	23	33	69.7%	8.1%
Andrew Jones	7	12	58.3%	2.9%
Rolandis Woodland	4	6	66.7%	1.5%
Michael Egnew	3	5	60.0%	1.2%
T.J. Moe	2	5	40.0%	1.2%
De'Vion Moore	3	3	100.0%	0.7%
Brandon Gerau	2	3	66.7%	0.7%
Kendial Lawrence	2	2	100.0%	0.5%
Gilbert Moye	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
TOTAL	260	407	63.9%	100.0%

WRs: 86.0% of targets
TEs: 4.2%
RBs: 9.8%

So here's where I start to get encouraged about Blaine Gabbert's prospects moving forward. With a relatively similar cast of characters in the receiving corps (Alexander was clearly better than any receiver in 2006, but Gabbert was without anyone nearing the reliability of Rucker, so they cancel out) and the propensity for throwing many more deep balls than Daniel, the Catch% for Gabbert's sophomore season was almost identical to Daniel's.

Now, unless one of our redshirting freshmen is suddenly capable of pulling a Jeremy Maclin impersonation (doubtful, to say the very least), Gabbert will head into 2010 without his top two targets, which is obviously something Daniel didn't have to worry about heading into 2007. However, while losing Alexander is a huge concern, losing Perry simply might not be too big a deal. Jackson has done a lovely Perry impersonation in recent weeks, and besides, Perry's 54% catch rate is simply horrendous. We know that Perry had a decent amount of bad luck this season -- how many times did Gabbert throw too high for him in the Oklahoma State game? -- but 54% is too low to blame simply on bad luck. Over four seasons, Perry never topped 70%, and while Jackson's 61% is nothing impressive, it is still better than what Perry managed this season. With another year (at least) of getting used to catching Gabbert's fastballs (and another year of Gabbert learning to keep the ball down as much as possible), I would expect Jackson's catch rate to be closer to the 65-70% range next year.

However, is that good enough? Gabbert can be expected to improve a decent amount next year, but ... who becomes the #1 target? And if it's Jackson, can Mizzou succeed at a high level with a #1 WR target catching only 65-70%, especially when there is suddenly no ultra-reliable tight end option to fall back on in times where a completion absolutely must be made?

Speaking of the tight end position, I guess this is the year in which we officially learned that WRs and TEs are basically exactly the same in this system. Alexander's Target% of 35% this year was 10% higher than Maclin ever managed and came within 10% of matching that of Maclin and Coffman from 2008. Lining up in the tight end slot position quite often, Alexander was actually able to approximately compensate for the loss of both players this year and catch passes at a very high rate for a receiver. Meanwhile, thanks to Alexander being a WR, tight ends accounted for only 4% of targets this year, and that's only if you count Michael Egnew as a tight end. The position disappeared from Mizzou's repertoire, but the passing numbers stayed relatively successful thanks to Alexander. With Alexander gone in 2010, do we see guys like Andrew Jones or Egnew working their way back into Gabbert's sights, or will another big receiver like Wes Kemp move into that role?

I have a lot more questions here than answers, but answers weren't the purpose of this exercise. I wanted to see if target data was viable and interesting, and while I found it both of those things, I'm curious what you think.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:15:17 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Sometimes no matter how closely we look at the data, the simplest explanations still end up making the most sense. I think that's the case in explaining Missouri's defensive struggles on Saturday. The offense, however, gets more baffling with more thought. That said, if you are ever inclined to spend the time it takes to read one of these posts, I recommend doing it this time. Lots to discuss, lots to explain. And if the numbers make you go blind, just skip to the words.

	Baylor (40)	Mizzou (32)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	52.9%	51.3%
Leverage %	61.4%	65.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.8	33.0
Close Success Rate	44.3%	48.7%
Close PPP	0.54	0.43
Close S&P	0.540	0.434

RUSHING
EqPts	7.6	4.2
Close Success Rate	33.3%	38.1%
Close PPP	0.31	0.20
Close S&P	0.648	0.583
Line Yards/carry	3.08	2.62

PASSING
EqPts	30.2	28.7
Close Success Rate	50.0%	52.7%
Close PPP	0.66	0.52
Close S&P	1.157	1.050
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.7% / 4.4%	3.0% / 13.6%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	41.9%	56.0%
PPP	0.42	0.47
S&P	0.841	1.030

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	48.2%	34.6%
PPP	0.73	0.36
S&P	1.208	0.711

TURNOVERS
Number	0	0
Turnover Pts	0.0	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	0.0	0.0

Q1 S&P	0.953	1.222
Q2 S&P	0.856	1.244
Q3 S&P	1.063	0.543
Q4 S&P	1.057	0.649

1st Down S&P	0.783	0.890
2nd Down S&P	1.048	1.144
3rd Down S&P	0.265	0.611

Projected Pt. Margin	+4.8	-4.8
Actual Pt. Margin	+8	-8

"Halftime Adjustments"

We all enjoy simple explanations, and because of that the whole theory of halftime adjustments has become very prevalent. It's how we explained the entire 1998 Missouri season (in which Mizzou led every game at halftime, yet went 8-4). However, as Smart Football and related sites have explained quite well, the concept doesn't really hold water.

The other coaching bogeyman is the aura surrounding "in-game adjustments" or "halftime adjustments," both of which are supposed to be the "hallmarks of good coaching." This is another thing where there’s a kernel of truth surrounding by a lot of speculation. Yes, a good coach will not do the same thing over and over again if it isn’t working, or if the other team has figured it out. And yes, coaching a game involves an ongoing process of what the other team is doing (this is one reason why I think, even if adjustments are part of the game, "halftime adjustments" are very much overrated). But if you want to see a bad coach then I’ll show you one who tries to "adjust" to everything the other team is doing with new schemes and ideas built-in midgame. Instead, teams with good coaching pretty much run only things within their plan — i.e. stuff they had practiced during the week. Indeed, much of what fans or commentators will pick out as an "adjustment" was something in the original gameplan that just didn’t get called until the second half because of the flow of the game.

So if this is true, then what the hell could be the cause of Missouri's very obvious second half offensive troubles? Part of the answer may lie in the next paragraph from that link:

While playcalling is definitely overhyped (hey, the talking heads get paid to talk about something), preparation is extremely important, and much of a gameplan involves contingency planning. It also means that the "base stuff" should have the counters built in, the constraint plays are already there, and the defensive adjustments are easy to make because they are a part of the system.

This offseason, we heard a lot about how the coaching staff had stripped things down in the playbook a bit, allowing Blaine Gabbert to grow into his role and not giving him everything they gave Chase Daniel last year. Is it possible that Missouri's offense is a bit too stripped down and not enough "counters" are built into the system? I honestly don't know. When I'm watching the game from the stands (and from the sideline view, no less, so it's hard to glean too much about any given play), I'm likely to only take into account whether a play was successful or not and who was directly involved. With only that level of understanding about this game and Mizzou's general second-half struggles, I shot Chris from Smart Football a quick e-mail yesterday to see what feedback he may have for the cause of second-half struggles in the absence of "halftime adjustments." Here were his general ideas:

My first guess is that a lot of this is variance. It's just when the touchdowns are happening.

My second guess is that it's tempo related. Mizzou runs a pretty proficient no-huddle, with lots of calls at the line at the line. It can take a good half to adjust to that fast tempo. If you buy that analysis then it's the first halves that are aberrations, not the second.

My third guess is that you're right other teams are adjusting throughout the game and that Mizzou is struggling with keeping up. Some of this is not called lacking counters, it's being exposed. It's clear Mizzou has an issue with the run game -- take away big days against Colorado, Furman, and Bowling Green and the team averages well under 100 yards a game. Once a team tries to take away Alexander and the like it's evident that Mizzou can't get much else going. I remember the Nebraska game Suh and the others just dominated the line of scrimmage.

After that...I don't know. I still think the wide disparity probably has a lot to do with variance as much as anything else. Mizzou's attack is clearly one dimensional this year, and Gabbert has played like a talented but injured first-year starter.

We all lean on the "halftime adjustments" concept because it's easy to understand, but it's a little too simple to blame Missouri's failures on the ten minutes that coaches have to talk things over at halftime. The offense is making adjustments every time the defense is on the field, and vice versa. But whatever the situation, Missouri is laying giant eggs in the third quarter, and it is killing them.

Here are Mizzou's per-game S&P+ numbers by quarter for conference play. Remember, 100 = average.

Mizzou Offense: "+" Performance by Quarter
Opponent	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Nebraska	65.8	80.9	66.8	64.6
at Oklahoma State	163.2	123.3	10.9	62.9
Texas	76.0	134.3	18.8	103.3
at Colorado	145.0	82.8	38.2	46.9
Baylor	145.7	153.8	82.8	95.7
AVERAGE	119.2	115.0	43.5	74.7
AVERAGE after NU	132.5	123.6	37.7	77.2

37.7!! For the season, Washington State's offense is the worst in the country in 3rd Quarter S&P+ at 51.1. That's how bad 37.7 is. Meanwhile, the 132.5 in Q1 would rank in the country's top ten. That's too extreme a difference for there to NOT be at least a little bit of, as Chris put it, variance. In a follow-up e-mail, he also said this:

Only other counterpoint is that during the early stretch of wins wasn't Mizzou basically a second half team? Being down to the likes of Nevada, etc before pulling away?

Also curious how much Alexander's big plays skew the data. He's been awesome, but has obviously been more bottled up in the second half?

Otherwise I dunno. I'll just end with a semi related anecdote. Someone asked the Colts great OC Tom Moore if he was going to install any new plays for the playoffs. He said hell no, if he had such good plays for the playoffs he would have installed them during training camp.

It is absolutely correct that Alexander's big plays have come mostly in the first half, and that would certainly skew the PPP figures. It wouldn't skew success rates, and the success rates are falling in the second half too, but that does explain some of the potential variance in numbers.

But "it's just variance--let's not think too much about it" isn't really very satisfying an answer, is it?

Here's what we know for sure: two years ago, with an experienced quarterback and four future NFL targets in the WR/TE corps (including two tight ends...probably cannot overstate that point enough), Missouri ranked 10th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 2nd in 3rd Down S&P+. This year, they're 55th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 35th in 3rd Down S&P+. All things considered, those aren't terrible numbers, but they represent a couple of the biggest drop-offs between 2007 and 2009. Is it as easy to explain as "the gameplan is good, but the receiving corps isn't good enough to continue to succeed for 60 minutes, and the quarterback is still learning"? We treated the receiving corps as the team's biggest weakness heading into the season, and that was before we found out we were going to get absolutely nothing from the tight end position. With Danario basically lining up as the tight end in the slot (and making plenty of nice plays), we've still needed production from the other receivers, and while all three--Jared Perry, Wes Kemp, and Jerrell Jackson--have made plays here and there, all have suffered absolutely crippling drops at one point or another. While the running game has come and gone at times this year, we've needed other receivers to step up at key times, and nobody really has.

Of course, we can talk about offense all we want, but we're at least slightly missing the point since, in the end, they generated 478 yards on Saturday. The defense that gave up 427 yards was infinitely more responsible for the loss, so let's talk about them.

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

(Header title in honor of a rather enjoyable football blog.)

The more I think about Missouri's defensive performance on Saturday, the less I start to believe that Baylor's success had much to do with any Missouri adjustments, or lack thereof. Let's break the game up into chunks to show what I mean.

Baylor's First Two Drives: 21 plays, 130 yards (6.2 per play), 9 points
Baylor's Next Three Drives (and first two plays of the fourth drive): 18 plays, 61 yards (3.4 per play), 7 points

After the first two drives, Missouri did, in fact, adjust to Baylor's gameplan. And really, this shouldn't be a surprise--as Kevin Rutland mentioned after the game, Missouri knew Baylor would throw a lot of sideline-to-sideline passes, and Baylor knew they knew, because that's simply what Baylor does. It's part of their current offensive philosophy. It worked early, as Baylor blocked well on the outside and Mizzou missed some tackles, and those quick passes got 8-12 yards instead of 3-5. But Missouri did, in fact, adjust and slow Baylor down considerably. Baylor scored on their final possession of the first half, primarily because of a long kickoff return and two (two!) Missouri personal foul penalties, but the Bears' offense was slowing down.

And then two things happened: 1) Late in the second quarter, Carl Gettis knocked Kendall Wright down using mostly his neck and missed the rest of the game, and 2) Wright pulled off what was potentially the biggest play of the game on Baylor's first third-down attempt of the second half, bouncing around, dodging about 26 tackles, reversing field, and picking up 21 yards on 3rd-and-7.

Baylor's Next Four Drives: 19 plays, 175 yards, 17 points

The stretch from Wright's third-down catch-and-run (-and-run-and-run) to Nick Florence's 59-yard bomb to Wright, in which Gettis' replacement Robert Steeples once again got burned, made the difference in the game.

The fact is, trying to dink and dunk all game long is damn near impossible--eventually you're going to have to go deep successfully, otherwise you're only going to move the ball for so long. Even though Gettis himself got burned for a 30-yard gain early in the game, he is still clearly Mizzou's best cornerback, and while Steeples is likely a better athlete than Gettis, he just isn't experienced enough to be getting the playing time he's gotten in close games. I still have hope for him in the future, and he's shown signs of great potential, but the times he's had to step in for an injured Gettis this year--Q4 against Nebraska, Q3 and Q4 against Baylor--have ended up disastrous for Missouri.

I should stop there, however, because I don't want it to even remotely sound like I'm blaming Mizzou's defensive struggles on one player. I'm not; just about everybody on Missouri's defense (including Rutland and Gettis) got burned at one point or another. The simple fact is, if you can burn a team deep, and they know it, you can go back to the short passes for 4-10 yards all game long. By the third quarter (one-play safety drive aside), Baylor had Mizzou's secondary on a string, and with good play-calling, there's not a lot a defense can do if their secondary is getting beaten short and long. Try to blitz? As long as they have a quarterback making good decisions (and Nick Florence was amazingly mistake-free for a freshman), they'll find a quick pass to make. Play tight to take away the short pass? They'll beat you deep. Give a big cushion to avoid getting beaten deep again? Sideline passes again. There's really nothing you can do from a defensive play-calling perspective at that point. Missouri's struggles came down to plain old tackling, covering, and (cripes) fundamentals, and with so many options at their disposal, it's no wonder that Baylor was able to put up an insanely high 1.208 Passing Downs S&P.

And not to give anybody any excuses to make--in the end, there is still no excuse for giving up 427 passing yards to a redshirt freshman no matter how well he was playing--but I guess it really should be noted just how unlucky Missouri has been with injuries in the secondary this year. Jarrell Harrison missed the first month of the season, Gettis got dinged up just long enough for his replacement to get bombed in two extremely winnable games, Jasper Simmons barely played against Baylor because of an injured thigh (Remember his deep break-ups against OSU? He might have been able to make a difference on at least one of the bombs...or maybe not), Munir Prince has missed most of the last month to a hamstring injury, and now Hardy Ricks is lost for the season. Ricks has never been my favorite defensive back, but he was still a better option than others. In all, Mizzou has not had a healthy, complete secondary all year, and with so much necessary rhythm and communication needed among the safeties and corners, getting burned at some point was probably inevitable. One would have hoped that the Texas disaster would have made the unit congeal a bit better, and it didn't, but losing Gettis and Simmons, our two best overall DBs in 2009, on Saturday was probably every bit as important as anything Baylor did.

Three Positives

Danario Alexander. Mizzou lost track of him in the second half, probably because Baylor was doubling him (I wouldn't know for sure because, again, when I'm watching from the stands, I miss a lot), and until the final drive of the game he only had one catch for seven yards in the second half, but as I mentioned Saturday night, 13 catches for 214 yards was just ridiculous. Again, he's on pace for 103 catches, 1,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns. With a second solid option, or with a running game that didn't come and go from Saturday to Saturday, this offense would be extremely potent because of the job #81 has done, and it goes without saying that we are going to miss the crap out of him next year.
Blaine Gabbert in the fourth quarter. I'm copping from Ross on Sunday's podcast, but there was an assertiveness to Gabbert in the fourth quarter that we hadn't really seen before. He's not the type of sideline leader that Chase Daniel was, but he's growing on the field before our eyes, and he made all throws necessary to come back and win on Saturday. It's not his fault that, nine games into the season, his receivers can't consistently catch his passes.
The defensive ends. Mizzou's three-headed monster at end had turned into a one-man show in recent weeks, with Aldon Smith's impact dwarfing that of Jacquies Smith and Brian Coulter. But all three played well on Saturday, equally (more-or-less) splitting 10 solo tackles, 6 assists, and 4 tackles for loss. Of all the troubles Mizzou had on Saturday, getting to the quarterback really wasn't one of them. Of course, that brings two other things to light: 1) Mizzou's poor tackling in the secondary, and 2) seriously, how great was Nick Florence? He got hit a lot and still made tough throw after tough throw. Even some of his sideline passes were thrown just past the reach of Aldon Smith and perfectly on-target to the outside shoulder of the Baylor receiver, where the Mizzou DB couldn't break it up. This is going to piss me off all the more when he makes about 15 mistakes a game for the rest of the season, but he was virtually mistake-free on Saturday despite a decent pass rush, and he deserves commendation for that.

Three Negatives

Tackling. Duh. From Dave Matter on Twitter.
Pinkel: #Mizzou had 18 missed tackles vs. Baylor. Yikes
Ouch. With all of the analysis we do on this site and in these BTBS posts, sometimes the answer is quite simple. If Mizzou tackles well, then the short passes don't work. And if the short passes don't work, Mizzou's cornerbacks possibly don't end up getting sucked up closer to the line of scrimmage and burned deep, particularly in the second half. And without those deep balls, Baylor does not win. We know they can tackle well--they obviously have in the past--but they didn't. Fundamentals!
What the hell happened to the running game? As Beef pointed out on the aforementioned podcast (you're all listening to these, right?), Mizzou's lack of success (and, really, lack of attempts) was quite baffling. Baylor entered the game with a solid pass defense and nonexistent rush defense. Well, despite second half struggles, Mizzou passed for 9.0 yards per pass...and Mizzou's tailbacks averaged 3.0 yards per carry. You can't blame Mizzou for passing more when the run failed so badly, but it makes me very curious about the overall gameplan itself. We hear a lot about how Mizzou scripts seemingly all of their plays for certain situations, and I love this strategy--if nothing else, it tells you they believe in some of the general concepts discussed above from Smart Football Chris. In theory, scripting a ton ensures that you are incorporating enough randomness into the gameplan that it's harder to adjust. But did the script actually call for that much passing? In the first half, on Standard Downs (looking only at those, because Passing Downs are obviously more likely to make you stray from the script), Mizzou threw 16 passes and ran just 8 times. Maybe this was a "pass to set up the run" thing? Or as Beef put it, were we so successful at the pass that the run became too much of an afterthought?
Kickoff coverage. Don't think I forgot about you, kick coverage team. Baylor entered the game a pretty solid return team, and they should have been expected to have some success there, but here was Baylor's starting field position after Mizzou kickoffs (excluding the end-of-half kickoff and the squib after Mizzou's last score): Baylor 36, Baylor 31, Baylor 20, Mizzou 42, Baylor 33. That's an average start at the 36-yard line, about 10 yards further than it should have been, and it particularly hurt Mizzou in the second quarter, when the return to Mizzou's 42 gave Baylor scoring position despite Mizzou's (at the time) defensive improvement.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here. Rarely have the three keys been so prescient.

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over.

Mizzou's 0.711 S&P on Passing Downs actually wasn't that bad, but it was almost 50% worse than Baylor's. This really could have been the single biggest deciding factor in the game. Baylor was allowed to extend too many drives. Against a freshman quarterback facing a decent pass rush, this should have never, ever happened.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. ... Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Thanks to Mizzou's struggles in opposing territory, Grant Ressel is a Groza Award semifinalist. That's great and all, but how much of a difference could it have made if a couple of Ressel's field goals had actually been touchdowns? Early in the second quarter, Mizzou had first-and-10 from Baylor's 15, got stuffed on the run, and kicked a field goal. Then they advanced to the Baylor 28 before Gabbert very much overthrew Michael Egnew on third down. Then, in the fourth quarter, Gabbert took a terrible sack (I don't want to absolve Gabbert from all blame here--he has to get better at throwing the ball away) on first down, and Danario Alexander dropped a potentially huge pass on 3rd-and-22, and Mizzou had to settle for another field goal. Mistakes have plagued Mizzou in this regard, and it continues to cost them, even with one of the most automatic kickers in the country.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

We've covered Mizzou's struggles on kickoff returns, but we should also give a major shout out to Baylor's Derek Epperson and, more importantly, Baylor's punt coverage team. Epperson has made huge kicks all year, but he's pretty consistently out-kicked his coverage (just like I did with my wife, ahem), and it has led to some big returns. Losing Carl Gettis hurt Mizzou quite a bit, but even with Gettis Mizzou probably wouldn't have improved much on Epperson's insane 46.0 net yards per kick. Baylor's kick returns cost Mizzou about 10 yards of real estate, and so did Baylor's punting. In a game so close in terms of yardage and EqPts, every yard counts, and even with Ressel being automatic, special teams cost Mizzou dearly.

Summary

As I mentioned back in December, from 2005 to 2008, Mizzou went 15-2 against teams that finished with between a 0.251 and 0.500 win percentage, better than any four-year span in even the Dan Devine era. Fact is, Mizzou was probably due a loss like this, their first since the 2006 loss to Iowa State. I realize that any loss to a team like that is in one way or another inexcusable, but quite frankly it happens to everybody, even the Pete Carroll's of the world. That's not what certain fans (or Maneater writers) want to hear, but it's true.

We can be as dismayed and annoyed by the loss as we want, but let's not pretend it says anything particularly bad overall about Gary Pinkel and his staff. If you're looking for a coach who doesn't lose games like this periodically, be prepared to a) pay that man about $5 million a year (double what Pinkel makes), b) risk losing him to a bigger school that will pay more money than you ever could, and c) risk losing games like this anyway, because s*** happens. Even great coaches get outcoached. Bear Bryant got outfoxed by Al Onofrio. So did Tom Osborne. And John Robinson. Hell, Nick Saban (one of those aforementioned $5 million+ coaches) got outcoached by Charlie Weatherbie two years ago. The trick to long-term success is ensuring that losses like these don't happen often. Can Mizzou recover against K-State (a team that still has at least a chance of falling into the aforementioned 0.251-0.500 bracket)? Can they take care of business against Iowa State and make sure they still get a bowl out of this season?

A good response to a loss like this is what brings you long-term success, and it's time to turn the page and look to the rest of the season. The next three games will tell us more about this team than anything that happened last Saturday.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

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I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Bill C. — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:00:09 -0000

Pretty sure our current #11 is better. No offense, Jimmy D. (Via The Trib's R.C. Adams)

Almost ten years ago to the day, Missouri was at a precipice. Two years of unprecedented (in recent terms, anyway) winning broke Mizzou back into the land of respectability, but a lot of seniors had departed. Corby Jones, Devin West, Harold Piersey, Caldrinoff Easter, Marquis Gibson, Craig Heimburger, etc. Mizzou was going to be young in 1999, but they had exciting potential. Recruiting had improved! And speed! Mizzou had turned the corner as a program, and most fans truly believed that there was no turning back.

Sound familiar? Of course it does.

Missouri enters 2009 in a similar position--after two years of breaking through to a new level of wins and respectability, they have to now try to keep up momentum with a fresh bunch of young players. There is, of course, the faith that recruiting has improved, and that the program is in good shape heading into the future, but until Missouri actually proves that they are here to stay, we don't know for sure that that is the case.

In 1999, a young team quickly faced reality. After the offense carried the defense through two high-scoring wins (31-28 over UAB, 48-34 over Western Michigan), the infamous Ben Davidson game against Nebraska (Davidson snap back-to-back punts over the punter's head early in the game) was a nice slap in the face. After beating Memphis and losing a back-and-forth OT game against Colorado (still one of the most amazing games I've ever seen in person), disaster struck. Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Farmer broke his leg against Iowa State, and the offense fell apart. They were up 14-0 in the second quarter at the time of Farmer's broken leg, and over the final 5.5 games of the season, Mizzou would score just 48 points...34 of which came against Texas Tech. They would score a combined 14 points against Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Kansas State (all 14 coming in garbage time against ATM, with Justin Gage at QB), and in less than 12 months, Larry Smith went from "could run for Mayor of Columbia" to "could conceivably be fired."

Could the bottom fall out in 2009? Probably not, but of course it's a possibility. It's always a possibility if the right (well, wrong) things happen. The best thing to do a week away from the start of the season is compare the 1999 roster and schedule to 2009's. Remember, Mizzou went 4-7 in 1999...and they are predicted by multiple analysts (Phil Steele and Bruce Feldman to name two) to miss a bowl and have a similar record in 2009.

(For a further refresher on 1999, here's a pre-spring depth chart and the final 1999 statistics.)

After some early struggles, the Mizzou defense wasn't really that bad. The worst part of the defense was an offense that was going three-and-out about 17 times a game down the stretch.

Let's take a look at the (rough) depth charts for each year and see which team had the advantage, and in which areas.

Offense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
QB	Jim Dougherty (6'3, 190, So.) Kirk Farmer (6'4, 200, RSFr.)	QB	Blaine Gabbert (6'5, 240, So.) Jimmy Costello (6'3, 225, So.)	2009
TB	DeVaughn Black (5'11, 203, Sr.) Zain Gilmore (6'1, 205, So.)	RB	Derrick Washington (6'0, 225, Jr.) De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, So.)	2009
WR	Kent Layman (5'11, 187, Sr.) Eric Spencer (6'1, 165, So.)	WR	Danario Alexander (6'5, 215, Sr.) L'Damian Washington (6'4, 180, Fr.)	2009
WR	~~John Dausman (6'1, 184, Jr.)~~ Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.) Kareem Wise (6'3, 216, Sr.)	WR	Jared Perry (6'1, 180, Sr.) Jerrell Jackson (6'1, 190, So.) Rolandis Woodland (6'3, 200, RSFr.)	2009
FB	Rob West (6'0, 240, Sr.) Joe Chirumbolo (6'2, 246, Fr.)	WR	Wes Kemp (6'4, 225, So.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, So.)	2009
TE	Dwayne Blakely (6'4, 256, So.) Brandon Ford (6'3, 245, So.)	TE	Andrew Jones (6'5, 245, So.) Michael Egnew (6'6, 230, So.)	Draw
LT	Aaron Crittendon (6'5, 280, So.) Mike Ostendorf (6'5, 250, So.)	LT	Elvis Fisher (6'5, 300, So.) Mike Prince (6'3, 300, Jr.)	2009
LG	Joe Glauberman (6'3, 300, So.) Wes Wilson (6'4, 280, RSFr.)	LG	Austin Wuebbels (6'4, 305, So.) Jayson Palmgren (6'2, 305, So.)	Draw
C	Rob Riti (6'3, 285, Sr.) Mike Hayes (6'3, 298, So.)	C	Tim Barnes (6'4, 310, Jr.) Travis Ruth (6'3, 305, RSFr.)	1999
RG	Adrian Cole (6'4, 306, So.) J.P. Hall (6'4, 265, RSFr.)	RG	Kurtis Gregory (6'5, 305, Sr.) J.T. Beasley (6'4, 295, So.)	2009
RT	Justin Bland (6'6, 316, So.) Brad Smith (6'6, 289, Sr.)	RT	Dan Hoch (6'7, 320, So.) Jack Meiners (6'6, 305, Fr.)	2009

K	Brad Hammerich (6'3, 176, So.) Brian Long (5'11, 203, So.)	K	Grant Ressel (6'2, 190, So.) Tanner Mills (6'2, 200, Sr.)	1999
PR	Arty Johnson (5'10, 168, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	PR	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, Fr.)	Draw

Thoughts:

Of the 13 slots listed above, the 2009 team appears to have the advantage in eight, the 1999 team has the advantage in two, and there are three draws.
I love Tim Barnes, but Rob Riti was an All-American, so he gets the edge.
Joe Glauberman and Austin Wuebbels are actually in a similar situation--overshadowed by more high profile recruits, they quietly locked down a starting slot.
One pleasant surprise stemming from 1999 was the kicking of Brad Hammerich. If Grant Ressel, Tanner Mills or Trey Barrow end up being a similar pleasant surprise in 2009, I don't think anybody would complain.
I loved Kent Layman to death, but...yeah, Danario's better. Much, much better. And a moment of silence, please, for John Dausman's knees.

Defense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
DE	Justin Smith (6'5, 267, So.) Daryl Whittington (6'6, 227, Jr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.) Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)	1999
DT	Jeff Marriott (6'5, 288, Sr.) Cedric Harden (6'3, 275, RSFr.)	DT	Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.) Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)	2009
DT	Steve Erickson (6'4, 280, Jr.) Terrell Jurineack (6'4, 271, Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.) Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)	1999
DE	Pat Mingucci (6'2, 266, Sr.) Danny McCamy (6'3, 250, Jr.)	DE	Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.) Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)	2009
OLB	Pat "TV's Patrick" Duffy (6'3, 236, So.) Josh O'Neal (6'1, 230, RSFr.)	OLB	Sean Weatherspoon (6'2, 250, Sr.) Donovan Bonner (6'2, 240, Fr.)	2009
Sam	Barry Odom (6'0, 219, Sr.) Michael Clay (6'3, 255, RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (6'3, 235, Jr.) Will Ebner (6'1, 230, So.)	1999
Will	Jamonte Robinson (6'2, 210, So.) Duke Revard (6'3, 232, So.)	OLB	Andrew Gachkar (6'3, 230, Jr.) Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 225, RSFr.)	Draw
CB	Carlos Posey (6'0, 202, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)	2009
CB	Antoine Duncan (5'10, 190, RSFr.) Andre Roberson (5'10, 172, Jr.)	CB	Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.) Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)	2009
FS	Julian Jones (5'11, 189, Jr.) Rodger Winston (6'1, 220, Sr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.) Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)	Draw
SS	Clarence Jones (6'1, 180, So.) Harold Hendricks (6'3, 207, Jr.)	SS	Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.) Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)	2009

P	Vince "00" Sebo (6'1, 228, Sr.) Jared Gilpin (5'10, 168, So.)	P	Jake Harry (6'1, 195, Sr.) Matt Grabner (6'4, 200, So.)	2009
KR	Ricardo Rhodes (5'6, 174, Jr.) Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.)	KR	Jasper SImmons (6'1, 205, Jr.) Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)	Draw

That's right, this team had players named Brad Smith and Pat Duffy...plus, there was a Stephen Colbert to boot. Hey, every team's gotta be good at something, and Mizzou 1999 was good at...having good names.
So that's seven in favor of 2009, three for 1999, and three draws.
Really, I'm giving Andrew Gachkar a decent amount of faith there because Jamonte Robinson was pretty damn good (94 tackles, 13 TFL/sacks, 5 passes broken up). Gack won't put together those stats, but he can be just as useful for the defense at hand. In the Larry Smith defense, all tackles were filtered to the Sam and Will (the OLB was as much of a DE as a linebacker), so Jamonte and his eight-foot arms were bound to rack up the tackles, though the 13 TFL/sacks is a really nice number. If only Jamonte were 25 pounds heavier, he was good enough to play in the pros. I'm challenging you, Gack--I'm saying that you're as right for this offense as Jamonte was for his...prove me right.
Carlos Posey had a really interesting career at Mizzou. He scored more touchdowns than any defensive back I can remember, but he was virtually nonexistant in 1999, registering one INT and just 29 tackles. I realize The Carl Gettis Treatment isn't a fan favorite at this point, but I think he still has the edge.
Not much of a Hardy Ricks fan, but I really wasn't a Clarence Jones fan. And while I love Kenji Jackson, I loved Julian Jones, so that's a draw.
Sean Weatherspoon vs TV's Patrick Duffy is one of the most unfair comparisons in the history of the world. Mizzou's 2009 team should really get about six advantages just from this matchup.

So as a whole, as one would expect, the 2009 team is much more proven, much more talented, and much faster. What about the other teams on Mizzou's schedule?

The Opponents

Needless to say, the North Division was in much better shape in 1999. Nebraska started the season ranked #6, Colorado #15, and Kansas State (facing similar rebuilding prospects in 1999 as Mizzou is in 2009, but getting a bit more respect) #20. The South was represented by #7 Texas A&M (a Mizzou 1999 opponent) and #17 Texas (not).

Whereas the North this year is represented by the #24 and #25 teams in the AP preseason poll, the North in 1999 was the class of the conference, with three teams in the Top 20. Their South opponents, meanwhile, were coming off of a conference title (ATM), a 7-5 record (Texas Tech), and one of the biggest upgrades in the history of coaching changes (OU, going from John Blake to Bob Stoops).

In 2009, Missouri faces, to say the least, a much less intimidating slate of opponents in the North division. The two favorites--Nebraska and Kansas--have pretty well-defined question marks and barely slipped into the preseason polls, and the other three division opponents--ISU, KSU, Colorado--have been outscored by Mizzou a combined 297-114 the last two years.

While the North slate is easier, the South slate is potentially tougher. Texas is the consensus #2 team in the country, OSU is in the Top 15, and Baylor...well, they're still Baylor to some degree, but this should be the best Baylor team of the last decade, for what that's worth. Behold the power of the Hot Tub.

In all, Mizzou faces 4-5 likely bowl teams in the conference in 2009, with two more (Illinois, Nevada) in non-conference play. They face 1-2 elite teams in Texas and possibly Oklahoma State In 1999, they faced six bowl-eligible teams, two elite opponents in Nebraska and Kansas State.

So when all's said and done, I guess it's about a wash.

But if the strength of schedule is about the same, and the team is significantly better...that probably means much more than four wins, right?

Summary

Clearly Mizzou is in better shape heading into 2009 than 1999. As mentioned before, you never know for sure where your program stands until you see the product on the field, but the depth chart has more proven quantities and is much, much better overall.

The key of course, will be the unforeseen developments of 2009. If Kirk Farmer hadn't gotten hurt, Missouri would have at least beaten Iowa State and given Kansas a better run. They may not have finished any better than 5-6, but they also probably wouldn't have so completely quit on the season, and there might have been a little more to build upon heading into 2000.

With the depth chart at hand, Missouri has at least a chance at making a run at another North title. But if Blaine Gabbert gets hurt? Or one of the tackles? Or Danario Alexander (again)? Injuries could pretty significantly alter this team's outlook, especially at quarterback. You could say that any year, but it's more true on a team that is so thin at QB and so impressively young overall.

In the end, though, as we mentioned on Friday, 2009 is only one piece of this program's future. Avoiding disaster in 2009 should mean very good things in 2010 and 2011, and to say the least, the foundation of the Missouri program is in much better shape, much less likely to teeter, in 2009 than it was a decade ago.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

UPDATE: Depth Chart updated after news of Blaine Dalton's dismissal.

The season is barely over a week away, and it is impossible not to be intrigued and excited by the completely unexpected nature of 2009. We think we know what to expect from Blaine Gabbert, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, Kevin Rutland, the lawfirm of Smith, Smith, and Coulter, and all the other guys who will be playing new roles this season, but we don't really know.

But there's an added variable of interest, at least for me, when it comes to the 2009 season: the 2010 season. We want to win another North title--as I was saying this time last year, if Mizzou wins the North in 2009, it's over ("it" being competition in the North division) for a while, thanks for playing, everybody go home. We want to win the division, make a nice bowl, prove that Mizzou is to "reload, not rebuild" stage, et cetera. But really, the single most prevalent, overriding goal of 2009 is simply to not mess up 2010 and beyond. In a major rebuilding/reloading season, Oklahoma went 7-5 in 2005, which would be like about 4-8 for Missouri, and then they won three straight Big 12 titles. It didn't matter whether OU went 5-6 or 7-5 or 10-2 that season--what mattered was that, even with the proceeding Rhett Bomar drama, they got experience, stuck together, and improved as the season progressed, and they were ready to go on a major winning streak when 2006 came around.

With that in mind, let's take a look at 2010 and 2011, and what could be in store if 2009 doesn't, in one way or another (catastrophic injuries, unexpected defection, damaged chemistry, etc.), derail the gameplan. For this exercise, we will more or less assume that the depth charts I've been projecting over the last couple of weeks come true, and we will use that assumption for the projected 2010 and 2011 depth charts.

2010

Boldface = returning (projected) starter
Asterisk = proj. number of years having started
x = no current scholarship player or known walk-on to fill the position

I'm intentionally leaving off any currently-committed recruits because Missouri has proven time and again that, while they'll almost certainly play some true freshmen, trying to figure out which ones ahead of time is a fool's game. A 2-star is almost as likely to come in and earn PT as a 4-star.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)* Jimmy Costello (Jr.) Ashton Glaser (RSFr.)	DE	Aldon Smith (So.)* Brad Madison (So.) Brayden Burnett (RSFr.)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr.)** De'Vion Moore (Jr.) Kendial Lawrence (So.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr.)* Jimmy Burge (So.) George White (So.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr.) T.J. Moe (So.) Kerwin Stricker (RSFr.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr.) Marvin Foster (RSFr.) Chris Earnhardt (Jr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (So.) Rolandis Woodland (So.) Jaleel Clark (RSFr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr.)* Michael Sam (So./RSFr.) Marcus Malbrough (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr.)* Gahn McGaffie (So.) Brandon Gerau (Jr.)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr.)* Zaviar Gooden (So.) x
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr.)* Michael Egnew (Jr.) Alex Sanders (RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (Sr.)** Donovan Bonner (So.) Andrew Wilson (RSFr.)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr.)** Justin Britt (So./RSFr.) Kirk Lakebrink (Sr.)	WLB	Will Ebner (Jr.) Josh Tatum (Jr.) Tyler Crane (Jr.)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr.)* Jayson Palmgren (Jr.) Mike Prince (Sr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr.)*** Trey Hobson (Jr.) Kip Edwards (So.)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr.)** Travis Ruth (So.) x	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr.)* Robert Steeples (So.) Munir Prince (Sr.)
RG	J.T. Beasley (Jr.) Daniel Jenkins (So.) Mark Hill (RSFr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Jr.)** Jarrell Harrison (Sr.) Tavon Bolden (RSFr.)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr.)* Jack Meiners (So.) Chris Freeman (RSFr.)	SS	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Matt White (RSFr.) Randy Ponder (RSFr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr.)* Trey Barrow (So.)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr.) Grant Ressel (Jr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (So.)* Carl Gettis (Sr.)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Kendial Lawrence (So.)

This year, we enter the season with a combined seven seasons of starting experience on offense and six on defense. Next year, it looks like about 11 on offense and 13 on defense.

Notes about the depth chart:

It bears mentioning that there's no way in hell somebody doesn't transfer or quit (UPDATE: or get thrown off the team for driving while intoxicated...on campus, ahem) between now and 12 months from now. Look at some of the younger guys on the third-string, trapped behind guys just as young or younger (i.e. look at the defensive line), if you want to get some pretty good red flags in that regard.
There will also be some position changes, offense-to-defense switches, etc. I have my own ideas about who or what those changes will be, but I tried to stay as close as possible to current positions (OL and LB aside). I wanted to make as few assumptions as possible here.
THREE senior scholarship players on the offensive three-deep, and only seven on defense. This team will still be ridiculously young NEXT year.
Missouri currently has commitments from four defensive backs (five if Jimmie Hunt switches to defense), so it will be quite interesting to see how many (if any) are worked into the rotation, being that DB is about the only senior-dominated unit for 2010. I mean, that's a pretty stout rotation right there. I guess there's a potential slot available at SS, but otherwise a true freshman would have to come in and truly dominated to pass some of those experienced guys.
I can't tell you how curious I am to see L'Damian Washington and T.J. Moe in action this year (I'm just going to assume that neither redshirt). If one or both can play to at least the level that Jared Perry and Danario Alexander did as true freshmen, then this WR corps should be quite stout with Kemp and Jackson as the veterans, Washington/Moe as the third starter, and a host of other guys who will get a shot to show potential this year.
Good god, how good is the offensive line going to be in 2010 (and 2011)??

Now the schedule:

Date	Team	Comments
9/4	vs Illinois	No Juice or (probably) Benn, but...Eddie McGee!!!1!!! Mizzou will probably be favored in this one.
9/11	McNeese State	Yawn.
9/18	?	I'm curious who we aim for with this spot. Clearly it will be a home game, since it's Mizzou's turn to "host" Kansas at Arrowhead, and you have to figure it will be a non-BCS team as well (duh), but no idea whether we're aiming for a Nevada type or an Idaho type.
9/25	Miami-OH	They really haven't been very good for since Big Ben left.
10/9	Colorado	As down as I am about CU in 2009, they should be pretty experienced and potentially solid in the trenches next year. It looks like they'll still have Cody Hawkins at QB, of course, but they should be decent.
10/16	at Texas A&M	Never fun going to College Station, but this one's winnable.
10/23	Oklahoma	As Lou Brown would say, one of these days we're gonna figure out how to beat those guys.
10/30	at Nebraska	The 2009 NU offense will dictate what I think about the 2010 Huskers. No idea right now, but a trip to Lincoln is a trip to Lincoln.
11/6	at Texas Tech	Are you noticing something about the 2010 schedule yet? Only one game in Columbia after 10/23. Yikes.
11/13	Kansas State	Until Bill Snyder proves something the second time around, this is a win.
11/20	at Iowa State	Until Paul Rhoads proves something, anything at all, this is a win.
11/27	vs Kansas	Kansas loses Reesing, Meier, Briscoe (probably), Sharp, Stuckey, Thornton...pretty much every player you can name, they will be gone in 2010. KU has recruited well and looks to be in a "Mizzou 2009" situation next year (hoping to prove they reload instead of rebuild), but Mizzou will definitely have the experienced advantage in this one.

Knowing what we know, it's safe to assume that, even if Missouri wins the North in 2009, people will be picking Nebraska in 2010 (with Colorado as the sleeper), so we should just prepare for it now! Mizzou will clearly have a major role to play in the 2010 race, but a) a million things, good or bad, could happen between now and then, and b) the "almost everything on the road" home stretch is a little intimidating, even if Mizzou will potentially be favored in at least three of the five road trips.

2011

Clearly it's silly to get too worked up, one way or the other, about something that will begin 24 months into the future. But if people stay healthy and develop like Mizzou tends to develop players, then WOW is this team loaded, especially on an offensive line that will have at least three multi-year starters and return four starters overall, and on a defensive line that will be stacked and experienced...and this is without even considering Sheldon Richardson's presence.

Of course, the key to 2011 expectations will be Blaine Gabbert. At 6'5, 240, with a cannon attached to his right arm, he is exactly what pro scouts look for in a quarterback, and if he has any success at all in 2009 and 2010, people will be assuming he's going pro. If he comes back like Colt McCoy, or if he leaves like Josh Freeman, it will have a tremendous impact on expectations. There will be plenty of options if he leaves--~~Blaine Dalton,~~ maybe 2010 commit James Franklin, or of course Jimmy Costello or Ashton Glaser--but obviously the overall outlook will be clouded in part by Gabbert's decision*.

* The more I talk about this, the more I feel like I'm unleashing a monster jinx regarding Gabbert's health, so I'm goign to shut up about it now.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Sr.)** Jimmy Costello (Sr.) Ashton Glaser (So.)	DE	Aldon Smith (Jr.)** Brad Madison (Jr.) Brayden Burnett (So.)
RB	De'Vion Moore (Sr.) Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) Gilbert Moye (Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Sr.)** Jimmy Burge (Jr.) George White (Jr.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Sr.)* T.J. Moe (Jr.) Kerwin Stricker (So.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Sr.)* Marvin Foster (So.) Chris Earnhardt (Sr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (Jr.)* Rolandis Woodland (Jr.) Jaleel Clark (So.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Sr.)** Michael Sam (Jr./So.) Adam Burton (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Sr.)** Gahn McGaffie (Jr.) Brandon Gerau (Sr.)	SLB	Zaviar Gooden (Jr.) x x
TE	Andrew Jones (Sr.)** Michael Egnew (Sr.) Alex Sanders (So.)	MLB	Donovan Bonner (Jr.) Andrew Wilson (So.) x
LT	Elvis Fisher (Sr.)*** Justin Britt (Jr./So.) x	WLB	Will Ebner (Sr.)* Josh Tatum (Sr.) x
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Sr.)** Jayson Palmgren (Sr.) x	CB	Trey Hobson (Sr.) Kip Edwards (Jr.) x
C	Travis Ruth (Jr.) x x	CB	Robert Steeples (Jr.) x x
RG	J.T. Beasley (Sr.)* Daniel Jenkins (Jr.) Mark Hill (So.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Sr.)*** Tavon Bolden (So.) x
RT	Dan Hoch (Sr.)** Jack Meiners (Jr.) Chris Freeman (So.)	SS	Matt White (So.) Randy Ponder (So.) Tony Randolph (Sr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Sr.)** Trey Barrow (Jr.)	P	Matt Grabner (Sr.)* Grant Ressel (Sr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (Jr.)* x	KR	Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) x

Sixteen seasons of starting experience on offense, 12 on defense. Solid experience everywhere, but just ridiculous experience in the trenches. Gabbert or no Gabbert, there's reason to be optimistic about the future just because of that.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary is really the only unit looking at taking a decent-sized hit this season. Same with linebackers, really, but we're all so excited about guys like Ebner, Bonner, Gooden, etc., that it seems like at least a bit less of a concern.

Date	Team	Comments
9/3	?	We can just assume that the three ?'s on the schedule will likely be filled with the usual: a BCS conference team, a decent non-BCS team, and a craptastic non-BCS team. Who those are is obviously up in the air, though I'll say this: I think ESPN and other networks will start trying harder and harder to manufacture good non-conference matchups by offering to pay both participants a decent amount of money. At some point, that will become a cost-effective thing to do, and I think you'll start seeing more matchups coming about in that way. No idea who Missouri might get paired with in such a scenario, but it might do us well to assume that it's possible to be anybody between Oregon and Miami, not just a regional matchup like Arkansas or Iowa.
9/10	?
9/17	?
9/24	Western Illinois	Yawn.
10/1	at Colorado	At the very least, CU should have a very good offensive line in 2011, whether Dan Hawkins is still there or not.
10/15	Texas A&M	All the sophomores currently on their two-deep will be seniors, so they could be pretty decent, whether Mike Sherman is still there or not (and with his ridiculously lengthy contract, he probably will be).
10/22	at Oklahoma	I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Missouri will not be favored in this one.
10/29	Nebraska	2011 is the anti-2010. Three of five down the stretch are at home, and they don't give up the home game against Kansas. Obviously we have no idea about any of the final five teams two years out, but it's certainly possible that Mizzou will be favored in all five, or at least four of them.
11/5	Texas Tech
11/12	at Kansas State
11/19	Iowa State
11/26	vs Kansas

Summary

The point of this exercise was simply to hammer home the point that Missouri will not only be playing for 2009 this year, but 2010 and 2011 as well. If recruiting continues to improve, or if a spate of injuries completely changes the outlook of the program, then these depth charts are about as far from realistic as possible, but the take-home point is simply this: if Missouri does disappoint in 2009, and clearly it's possible, it really will not affect the long-term prognosis of the program as long as the chemistry stays tight, the players stay healthy, and the players continue to improve. I really want Mizzou to shut everybody up and win another North title (and hey, throw in 10 wins for good measure), but Mizzou will likely survive long-term no matter what happens in 2009, and that's a pretty exciting thought to fall back on if things don't go as planned over the next four months.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

It's safe to say...Scrimmage No. 1 will not dampen optimism

Bill C. — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 00:00:33 -0000

"What you did today? Do exactly that on September 5."

First, the initial scrimmage reports from the usual suspects:

Dave Matter: Gabbert, tailbacks shine in first scrimmage
Gabbert finished the day 17 of 22 for 219 yards, with a touchdown pass and an interception ... on a tipped ball that could have been caught. To give you some perspective on how much his accuracy has improved, here were the five incompletions: (1) A swing pass to Derrick Washington in the flat that was too high; (2) a 19-yard bullet that Wes Kemp couldn't corral despite a diving effort in the end zone; (3) a drop by Jared Perry; (4) a pass off Perry's chest that safety Jasper Simmons intercepted on the deflection; and (5) another off Perry's hands. Otherwise, Gabbert completed 14 of his final 15 passes. Of his 22 attempts, all but one, the early dink to Washington, hit his intended target. Not too shabby.
PowerMizzou: Gabbert, ground game highlight scrimmage
Gabbert was finally able to show his speed, as well, finishing with 55 yards on 5 carries and a touchdown. After practice, Sean Weatherspoon claimed Gabbert ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash the last time the team tested, and it showed. The sophomore, who was the only QB in the protective green jersey, ran for one touchdown, and would have had a second and third if not for the scrimmage's touch-rule. With the pocket disintegrating because of the ever-present Aldon Smith, Gabbert split through the defensive line and cut right, heading 18 yards into the endzone.
The Trib: Missouri scrimmage stats
KC Star: Scrimmage report
PowerMizzou: Scenes from Saturday's scrimmage
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Tigers talk about scrimmage
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Missouri Scrimmage highlights

Until a relatively humbling Black & Gold Game, in which he struggled while missing his top two receivers (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander) and his top target at a previous scrimmage (Michael Egnew), the spring storyline was that Blaine Gabbert was improving by the day, and that big things could be in store. After B&G, however, we got to hear all summer how Gabbert had an "up and down" spring (because nobody pays attention to anything but the spring game), which was honestly a nice motivator for Gabbert and everybody involved.

So we get to August, and we're right back to hearing about Gabbert looking better every single day. Yikes. Until he proves himself on September 5, clearly this is all relatively meaningless. But holy crap...it's getting harder and harder to stay grounded and not get excited.

Looking over the stats, there is a lot to like. After the defense dominated earlier in the week, the offense struck back in grand fashion. Mizzou's three main RBs (D-Wash, De'Vion Moore, Kendial Lawrence) put up 115 yards in 21 carries, and their current projected starting receivers (Danario, Perry, Wes Kemp) had 13 catches for 181 yards (despite Perry apparently having a pretty poor day).

Meanwhile, the kicking game looked good--Tanner Mills (sorry, General Mills), Grant Ressel, and Trey Barrow made a combined 20 of 24 field goals, while Mills routinely landed kickoffs deep in the endzone. And the defense, torched by the first string offenses, unloaded on the second- and third-string offenses, picking off a total of five passes (Jasper Simmons, Matt White, Jeff Gettys, and two walk-ons nabbed them) and "sacking" the QB seven times.

All you can really ask for from a scrimmage, in which there's always a zero sum game going on (if Mizzou makes a good play, they're making it against...Mizzou), is that the first-string of both the offense and defense looked good, and without actually having been there, I'd say the stats and the above links suggest just that.

And of course, if you missed it below...

PowerMizzou: Tigers land state's best
Post-Dispatch: State's top prospect commits to Mizzou
Demien didn’t know his recruiting would transpire like it did.

"I was hoping to land maybe one or two offers from schools," he said. "I didn’t know it was going to blow up this big. I was awestruck at first. I was shell-shocked, you could say. I started to weed out schools where I didn’t want to go because I didn’t want to waste their time.

"Missouri had always been one of my top schools. I rooted for them growing up. I got to look at Oklahoma. I felt Mizzou had the same stuff there. I felt like I could excel at Missouri the same way I could at Oklahoma."

We've been pretty optimistic about our chances with Demien for a while, but it's nice that he pulled the trigger before the season started. Now all eyes turn to Marcus Lucas and Kony Ealy. Land Lucas, who's had Mizzou at the top of his list for a while, and this is a really good class. Lucas, Demien, James Franklin, Jimmie Hunt, and a bunch of kids who were good enough to get early offers? Yes, please.

Land Lucas AND Ealy, who appears to be favoring Georgia Tech at the moment, and I think most would consider this Pinkel's best class, top to bottom, even if the rest of the scholarships go to a bunch of 2-star Texans (which they probably will...and with Donovan Bonner thriving immediately, it's hard to complain too much about that strategy, huh?).

SB Nation - Michael Egnew

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Targets and Catches (Part One)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Baylor(40)

Mizzou(32)

"Halftime Adjustments"

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

---

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Offense

2009

2009

2009

2009

2009

Draw

2009

Draw

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

Defense

1999

2009

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

Baylor
(40)

Mizzou
(32)