Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Q&A With Iowa State Blog Clone Chronicles - Nebraska vs Iowa State

Jon Johnston — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:00:05 -0000

CrossCyed over at the Iowa State blog Clone Chronicles joined us for some witty banter this week. We sent him questions about the upcoming Nebraska - Iowa State game and he was good enough to respond.

He sent us some questions as well, including one that said:

Marv Seiler

To which my response was my story about the 1992 Nebraska - Iowa State game where I was, ah.... thrown out by a policeman but ended up helping tear down the goalposts with Iowa State students. The story appeared in Roger Aden's book "Huskerville".

Right now, it's looking like about a 30% chance I'll be in Ames, thanks to Jamie Pollard's policy forcing everyone to buy season tickets. If I don't make it, it'll be the first one I've missed in Ames in many years, so thanks so much, Mr. Pollard.

Feedback time!

I have learned a lot from the blogger Q&A's we do. I know the questions can be unoriginal, but they help me get a feel for what the other side is thinking before a game, and I think that's unique about what we provide.

You might be able to do the same with an opponent's message board, but so many times they'll metaphorically kill you just for going on their sites.

So - I'm asking - do you like the Q&A's? Is there anything we could be doing better or differently than we are? Please leave us a comment and thank you!

1. How dangerous of a quarterback is Austen Arnaud? Should Nebraska be concerned more with his arm or his feet?

His arm will have to be how he wins the game. He's not bad running the ball (we ran the zone read somewhat effectively at first against KU), but he's got a good enough arm that NU needs to be focused on the pass game.

2. What one key item does ISU have to do to win against Nebraska?

Run. The. Ball. Effectively. Our rushing attack has been pitiful, to put in nicely. Of course, turnovers are always crucial, but our offense has stalled completely way too often this year. Both Alexander Robinson and JJ Bass need to have career days, at least, for them.

3. Gene Chizik seems to be a solid fit in Ames. How are the locals taking to him
as the head man?

He's so well respected because it's known that he runs a solid program with kids that stay out of trouble. Now, some doubt is starting to arise after the Baylor loss, but he's really a guy that the fanbase wants to fall in love with. Fans LOVE that he doesn't sugarcoat anything. And we see flashes of improvement. I think most fans think we're on the right path.

4. What do you see as the most interesting matchup in this weekend's game in
terms of units?

The ISU passing game against the Blackshirts. Arnaud and the WR corps both performed pitifully in the Baylor game. When we opened up our offense against Kansas, a 20-0 lead resulted. The WR corps and Arnaud are both talented enough that they can pass on Nebraska. They just need to connect.

Honorable mention to Marlon Lucky vs. the 11 guys lined up opposite him, not to mention Joe Ganz against a secondary starting two true freshmen.

(CB: He referenced our defense as “Blackshirts”. Wow. We don't even do that any more. Not until they earn them. What a non-issue that's turned out to be so far.)

5. What member of ISU's roster should Nebraska fans fear most and why?

True freshman Leonard Johnson. Take a moment to search for him on YouTube. He's already one of our most talented players at cornerback. He can get a pick, play tough man coverage, and he is, pound-for-pound, our hardest hitter. He'll make money playing football soon enough, but for right now, he's an absolute treat to watch.

6. What member of Nebraska's roster do you fear most and why?

Marlon Lucky. I'm scared of his speed, and moreso, his versatility. It seems that teams that try and use a weapon like Lucky against us succeed more often than not. If we control him, I really feel we win the game, but only because it's a big task for our defense.

7. Prediction!

We're so much better at home than on the road, and the crowd should be rocking. 23-21 Iowa State on a Grant Mahoney field goal in the waning minutes.

SB Nation - Jamicah (J.J.) Bass

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Missouri

Summary and Prediction

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

ISU's ability to force turnovers

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

Nothing

Q&A With Iowa State Blog Clone Chronicles - Nebraska vs Iowa State