SB Nation - Kenji Jackson

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:15:17 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I mentioned at the beginning of Saturday's postgame podcast that this was, in the end, a pretty simple game to explain. That didn't stop Ross and me from talking about it for 40+ minutes then, and it won't stop me from diving into the numbers to see what I can find. This game really was a nice reminder that Mizzou's still got a fast (and young) team with a world of potential, but if that's not reason enough to check out the stats with me, I'll just mention that there's a fun Labatt Blue reference somewhere in the post. So you've got THAT to look forward to...

	Mizzou (36)	Buffs (17)
Close %	65.7%
Field Position %	46.0%	45.0%
Leverage %	64.9%	61.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.9	6.9
Close Success Rate	39.6%	25.7%
Close PPP	0.34	0.05
Close S&P	0.735	0.306

RUSHING
EqPts	10.9	3.1
Close Success Rate	37.9%	27.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.03
Close S&P	0.655	0.301
Line Yards/carry	2.54	1.00

PASSING
EqPts	10.0	3.7
Close Success Rate	41.7%	25.0%
Close PPP	0.41	0.06
Close S&P	0.831	0.308
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 13.0%	6.3% / 23.8%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	37.5%	37.8%
PPP	0.36	0.16
S&P	0.736	0.543

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	34.6%	21.7%
PPP	0.14	0.03
S&P	0.485	0.251

TURNOVERS
Number	2	4
Turnover Pts	15.8	19.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+4.1	-4.1

Q1 S&P	1.327	0.341
Q2 S&P	0.539	0.399
Q3 S&P	0.223	0.905
Q4 S&P	0.364	0.069

1st Down S&P	0.718	0.590
2nd Down S&P	0.524	0.462
3rd Down S&P	0.737	0.176

Projected Pt. Margin	+18.1	-18.1
Actual Pt. Margin	+19	-19

Reactions

Understated: Missouri's defensive success. Mizzou took on a bad offense and made them look like an NAIA offense, holding them to 176 yards and a 0.306 S&P. They were bigger, stronger and faster than CU. It was fun to watch. And with the game a play or two away from becoming competitive again, Mizzou allowed just a 0.069 S&P in the fourth quarter.
Overstated: Missouri's offensive success. Heading into this game, CU was in a battle with MU for the second-best defense in the North, but after a lovely first quarter, Mizzou did almost nothing offensively. They didn't necessarily need to do anything, and that's fine, but still.
You'll win a lot of games giving up a 0.176 S&P on third downs.
This game demonstrated the need for both efficiency and explosiveness. On Standard Downs, when many games are won and lost, MU and CU had nearly identical success rates (efficiency). But even when CU was moving efficiently, they still weren't getting anywhere. Mizzou's big-play threats--the long pass to Danario Alexander, and the nice, long runs by Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore--got Mizzou a couple of easy scores in a game where points were hard to come by in the last 35-40 minutes.
I love it when the projected and actual margins match up so perfectly.

Other thoughts after the jump.

Three Positives

I guess the defense can't count for all three, huh? You expect good defensive numbers when you face a bad offensive team, but Mizzou was positively dominant. I can't even cite a specific number to explain how dominant they were, because all of them tell the story equally well.
Aldon Smith. Agent Smith in his last two games: 16 solo tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 pass break-up. WOW. And half of that came against the best offense Missouri will see this year (Texas). With 4-6 games remaining this season, you do wonder what numbers he'll have put up by the end of the season. As I mentioned on Sunday, #85 is already threatening to leave Justin Smith's freshman numbers in the dust, and that's not even taking into account the increased pace of play-making he has put together in the last two weeks. The entire defense played well on Saturday, but this guy was a cut above the rest.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle looked fine!!! His first carry of the game was a simple 4-yarder, and all of Rock M Nation held its breath...but Gabbert not only was able to cut and change directions for the first time since September, but he also got up with no trouble. What a sigh of relief this is. Gabbert struggled after the first quarter, and CU took advantage of his further pass-telegraphing a couple of times, but if his ankle troubles are mostly behind him, we can actually start looking for signs of growth in #11 again, instead of just signs of survival.

(Also: I still can't say enough about how well he looked off the linebacker on the long TD to Danario. The LB was exactly in the way of the pass Gabbert wanted to make, so he looked to the right until the LB moved, then flicked the ball right where the LB was. Gorgeous. More of that, less locking onto receivers, please.)

And just for fun...a fourth positive:
In light of last night's 2010 post, I should point out that Aldon Smith, Kevin Rutland, Dominique Hamilton, Zaviar Gooden, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all made multiple stellar plays on defense. All of those players look better now than they did in early September, and all of them return in 2010, along with Jacquies Smith, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons, and others who have already made plenty of plays this year.

Three Negatives

After the first quarter, the offense was just horrendous. The struggles were disguised by field position and a perfect fake field goal (JACQUIES SMITH FOR TIGHT END!!!1!!!!) in the second quarter, and the offense went into an intentional shell in the fourth quarter, but still...while the Q1 pace was probably unsustainable, the S&P for the final 45 minutes was under 0.400. That's quite bad...that's almost Colorado bad (almost).
The defense took its foot off the gas just long enough to give Colorado hope. Colorado managed just 176 yards all game, but 105 of them came in back-to-back drives sandwiching halftime, and it gave Colorado some much-needed momentum. Mizzou quickly righted the ship, and you really can't expect a squad this young to not suffer a lapse at some point in a game, but regardless, the momentum CU generated there allowed them to get within two possessions in a game Mizzou led by 33 at one point.
A 37.5% success rate on Standard Downs (and resulting 64.9% leverage rate) simply will not get the job done. This was caused mostly by the second-half funk--things were still pretty strong for much of the first half; however, it's simply too low. Now matter how iffy the next few teams are on the schedule, if you put yourself into too many Passing Downs, you're begging to turn the ball over and find yourself in a closer-than-it-should-be contest. Efficiency is godliness (that's the old saying, right?), and thanks mostly to iffy running and/or run blocking after the early going, Mizzou had none of it.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Field Position

In conference play, [Colorado had] averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Field position was the major reason Mizzou found themselves up 30+ in the first half, and the major reason CU got within 16 in the second half. Mizzou does not have the same type of "could score from anywhere, at any time" offense as they did in 2007 and 2008, and the little things matter more. They cannot allow a sustained funk to take place like they did in Q3 Saturday. But on the bright side, Mizzou won the turnover points battle for the first time in conference play, though not by much.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Eight sacks and a 0.301 Rushing S&P. Um, yeah. Mizzou won this battle, to say the very least.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Mizzou's RBs: 37 carries, 161 yards, 1 TD. Good enough...or should I say...CROSE ENOUGH. Obviously the run game had plenty of issues, but it allowed Mizzou to seize the game early, and that's a net win.

Summary

Last week, we were trying to talk ourselves into Missouri still having a chance at the 2009 North title, and thanks to the way Missouri looked on Saturday, it's pretty clear that we're not just wishing and hoping. Colorado's far from good, but they were good enough to beat Kansas, and Mizzou beat them worse in Boulder than K-State beat them in Manhattan, so if you believe in the transitive property, that's a good sign for Mizzou's two remaining games away from Faurot Field. (Meanwhile, Mizzou's remaining games at Faurot are against Baylor and Iowa State, which...well, lose one of those games, and you don't deserve to win the North anyway.) The goals for 2009 were 1) make another bowl with a sickeningly young team, 2) win the North...and that's basically it. Mizzou can achieve half of its season goal with a win on Saturday, and it's shaping up to be a potentially lovely November for Gary Pinkel's Tigers.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

2 months ago: Texas wide receiver John Chiles, left, runs into the end zone past Missouri defenders Hardy Ricks (4) and Carl Gettis, right, after catching a 34-yard pass for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I was initially going to say I would crank through this post as quickly as possible and move on, in the name of Positivity Week. But BTBS posts are anything but quick. Let's pick off the scab and see what we can learn from this one.

	Texas (41)	Mizzou (7)
Close %	52.7%
Field Position %	47.4%	24.5%
Leverage %	75.0%	71.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	27.0	8.6
Close Success Rate	62.5%	39.3%
Close PPP	0.55	0.24
Close S&P	1.172	0.628

RUSHING
EqPts	9.2	4.1
Close Success Rate	66.7%	38.5%
Close PPP	0.32	0.19
Close S&P	0.982	0.570
Line Yards/carry	3.37	2.20

PASSING
EqPts	17.8	4.6
Close Success Rate	59.1%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.73	0.28
Close S&P	1.327	0.629
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.7% / 7.1%	0.0% / 20.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	54.4%	36.8%
PPP	0.32	0.14
S&P	0.864	0.512

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	36.8%	20.0%
PPP	0.46	0.21
S&P	0.831	0.412

TURNOVERS
Number	1	2
Turnover Pts	4.4	8.6
Turnover Pts Margin	+4.2	-4.2

Q1 S&P	1.260	0.356
Q2 S&P	1.053	0.739
Q3 S&P	0.506	0.074
Q4 S&P	0.503	0.597

1st Down S&P	0.969	0.539
2nd Down S&P	0.842	0.343
3rd Down S&P	0.651	0.590

Projected Pt. Margin	+22.6	-22.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+34	-34

Reactions

How good has Texas' defense been this season? Those putrid offensive numbers Missouri posted above were actually better than the average output against Texas. In Missouri's number of rushes and passes, the average opponent would have produced 5.2 EqPts and an S&P of 0.529. In other words, Missouri's offensive production in this game was better than average and actually caused their season offensive "+" numbers to rise. So, uhh, that's the good news I guess. The bad news? Those offensive numbers are still pretty god-awful. Not only that, but Blaine Gabbert had to be helped off the field once again. His ankle might be getting better overall, but it has no doubt experienced regressions each of the last two Saturdays. We can again debate whether he should be playing or not, but...he's playing. And I'm completely okay with that. Missouri's odds of beating Colorado are still probably better with a 75% healthy Gabbert than a 100% healthy Jimmy Costello.

Other thoughts after the jump.

I'm fascinated by Texas' offensive numbers. Texas' offense is clearly superior, in terms of both talent and experience, than Missouri's defense, and because of that, I rather expected them to get better with each progressive down. My working theory is that first downs are the "gameplan" down (it's a clean slate, and you can go with what you prepared in the gameplan), second downs are the "play-calling" down (you're reacting to how first down went and therefore at least partially straying from the gameplan), and third downs are the "playmakers" down (the best, most experienced teams are usually best on third downs). And yet Texas was actually far superior on first downs than second, and second than third. Either Texas' gameplan was infinitely better, or they just reacted to our own gameplan and picked it apart.
Props to Texas for being brutally efficient on defense. Missouri found a couple of things (namely, Kendial Lawrence and Danario Alexander) to worked offensively, but they patiently waited until Mizzou inevitably fell into a Passing Downs, then laid the hammer down quickly and ruthlessly.
Texas' running game did not produce any big runs to speak of, and it seemed like Missouri was, overall, defending the run rather well--3.0 yards per carry, only 131 rushing yards overall. However, when the game was still competitive/close, they were extremely efficient. They didn't break long gains, but they were almost always getting chunks of yards on first and second downs that led to extremely convertable third downs. Texas faced six third downs in the first half, and four of them were third-and-3 or less. Missouri made stops on both of the longer third-downs. This is the perfect example of why efficiency matters almost as much as explosiveness.

Three Positives

The front seven really did play rather well. They let Texas' running game execute a little too efficiently, without a doubt, but they showed a bit of fire, particularly Will Ebner (whose performance was quite amazing considering he had been under the knife less than two weeks earlier). For the game, Texas ran seven times on third-and-short (i.e. 3 or less). They gained more than four yards just once and four times gained two yards or less. Show that same fire against running games like Colorado's, Baylor's, Iowa State's and maybe K-State's, and you'll be putting yourself in position to win, and win easily.
The running game has been below average each of the last two weeks. We can complain about the play-calling and the amount of running we did and did not do against Oklahoma State and Texas, but the fact is, the running game is improving, slowly but surely. Against potentially the best rushing defense in college football, Missouri's three running backs--Kendial Lawrence, Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore--combined for 101 yards on 24 carries, 4.2 per carry. World-beating numbers? No. But a vast improvement over what Missouri would have produced a couple of weeks ago. There are signs that both the Missouri offensive and defensive lines are improving right now, and that's a very good thing.
Nobody remaining on the schedule is as good as Texas or Oklahoma State. Just sayin'.

Three Negatives

Blaine Gabbert really didn't look any healthier than he did a week ago. Now, against Texas, a lot of quarterbacks are going to look slow and come up gimpy after being hit. But he still seemed to have no acceleration, and you could hear a groan fill the stadium when his first pass of the game went buzzing ten feet over Jared Perry's head. I believe Gary Pinkel when he says that Gabbert is indeed improving, but we're talking about pretty incremental improvement here.
Where those communication breakdowns an exception or regression? For the first six games of 2009, we saw not a single over-the-top communication breakdown between the cornerback and safety, and Missouri's lofty Defensive Passing S&P+ ratings were the reward for that. But for whatever reason, they happened in droves on Saturday. Most seemed to involve Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, and being that Jackson has been demoted and Gettis has not*, I think we see where the coaches think a majority of the blame lies. We expected big things out of Mr. Jackson this year, and it has not happened, but luckily both JUCO transfers--Jasper Simmons and Jerrell Harrison--have been better than advertised, and I feel comfortable with both of them back there.

Regardless of where the blame lies, the breakdowns caused all sorts of flashbacks to late-2008, and until we see these issues eliminated, consider us all sorts of paranoid.

* I DVR'd the game but obviously didn't watch one second of it before deleting (why in the hell would I do that??), but according to Mike Dearmond, the cameras caught a little verbal scuffle between Gettis and Dave Steckel on the sidelines. Being that Gettis is still in the starting lineup, I'm going to assume that this has as much to do with Steckel being a fiery guy and not minding a little bit of yelling back as much as anything. Between that and the fact that supposedly Gettis is still battling a bit of ankle trouble from the NU game (seriously, that was the most costly freaking game we've had in a while), however, it does paint a picture of Gettis being a less-than-100%-stable #1 DB. We'll see. Luckily CU doesn't have any big-time WRs.
41-7. Uhh, a lot went wrong, and while Missouri's schedule gets a lot easier now, that's still not the fight we hoped to see. If Missouri can play confident and improve over the next five games, they can win their third straight North title. If they regress and lose confidence, then 6-6 or 7-5 suddenly becomes this team's absolute ceiling. Saturday's game against Colorado is by far the biggest of the season for that very reason.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

The Bomb

Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

Bingo. As mentioned above, Jackson had a couple of key breakdowns (then again, is any one thing really "key" in a 34-point loss?), and as you see from the pic at the top of this post, Hardy Ricks wasn't exactly innocent either. Missouri's inability to defend the short or the long pass was the single biggest reason for the blowout loss...

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

...and if pass defense wasn't the biggest reason for the blowout, first down offense was. Ouch. Once again, bingo.

Texas 1st Downs: 0.969 S&P
Missouri 1st Downs: 0.593 S&P

End of story. Texas both game-planned and executed better than Missouri, and you win blowouts when that happens.

The Turnover

Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

All three of the game's turnovers took place when the game was well in-hand, so this was a non-factor*. I did think Missouri's front seven played just well enough that they forced Colt McCoy to make some tough touch passes downfield...and he nailed every single one of them. Between that and the easy sideline passes, McCoy's night was near-flawless both on paper and on the field turf.

* Then again, blocked punts and special teams miscues might as well be considered turnovers, and if Missouri had any shred of hope in this game, that hope died with the extremely predictable late-Q2 blocked punt touchdown.

Summary

Not much else to say here, is there? Texas was bigger, stronger, faster, and more well-coached, and they executed better. They brought their A-game, made a statement, etc. What can we glean from Missouri's performance? Not a whole lot. In terms of athleticism and coaching, Texas and Colorado are on different playing fields. (Power to Colorado for staying close to UT for a while a couple of weeks ago, but having seen both games, that Texas team was not this Texas team.) What Missouri must do from here on out is continue improving in the trenches and utilize what will be a demonstrable speed advantage over the next few opponents. If they do that, and if Blaine Gabbert can actually start moving closer and closer to healthy, then the season's main goal--another North title--is still within reach. But this is such a young team that we simply have no way of knowing how they will respond to this level of adversity. Hit Folsom Field with confidence, and Missouri will be 5-3 this time next week. Get stuck in neutral, and they've got themselves a dogfight. We'll see what happens.

Anatomy of a Deflating Start: A look at Texas' first drive against Missouri

RPT — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:15:23 -0000

Is it safe to say that quite a bit went wrong in Missouri's 41-7 loss to Texas? It all started on the first drive of the game by Texas, which appeared to come far too easy. When Cody Johnson wasn't pounding away on the ground, Texas put the ball in the air three times, taking advantage of the Missouri pass defense. Did Missouri's defensive scheme open the doors to Texas' offensive revival? Here's a look at the three passing plays and what they might say in response:

PLAY 1: 14:53 remaining in 1st Quarter, 1st and 10: Colt McCoy pass complete to Jordan Shipley for 31 yards to the MU 30 for a 1st down.

Here, we see the first play from scrimmage, which will be indicative of most of the evening. Texas comes out in the Gun with the strongside to its left. Texas begins the game with 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB). McCoy has Foswhitt Whittaker to his left in the backfield, Malcolm Williams split wide to the left and Jordan Shipley in the slot. Missouri is in its base 4-3. There are two things of note as the players line up that are constant themes for the evening:

1. Shipley is highlighted in the slot, but across from him are Andrew Gachkar and Kenji Jackson. Jackson is 10+ yards removed from Shipley, and Gachkar is going to be hard pressed to close out on any outside routes because of his responsibilities in the running game.

2. When we heard Missouri was going to go a soft zone, I wasn't sure it would be THIS soft. The corner (Kevin Rutland?) is ten yards off the line of scrimmage. If this is a Cover 3, that makes a lot of sense. But if it's man coverage, then it's pretty clear that Dave Steckel REALLY doesn't trust his corners to not get beat deep.

A playaction by McCoy causes Gachkar to take one step to his left before having to recover and sprint to his right. At the top of the screen, Williams runs off the cornerback and opens up the flats for Shipley. Even before the snap, McCoy knows he's going to Shipley. The distance between Shipley and a linebacker, even one as good in pursuit as Gachkar, is too much of an advantage to pass up. If nothing else, he knows he's going left, as he can always audible into a screen for Williams.

Shipley makes the catch 2-3 yards past the line of scrimmage. The game is nine seconds old and, already, we have a test of Steckel's philosophy. If you're going to play a bend-but-don't-break soft zone and preach pursuit and tackling, you better pursue and tackle. Missouri has three players in position to minimize the gain, with Gachkar, Jackson, and the corner all stepping up. Also, on the left side of the photo, you see Lambert reengaging from behind the line of scrimmage.

With one plant of the foot, Shipley cuts inside and Gachkar flies right by him like he's a MIG from Top Gun. Now, all three of the primary pursuers are both outside of Shipley and not in the best position to angle him into other defenders. Lambert flies back into the screen, and sadly for Missouri, becomes the Tigers' best hope at preventing the first down.

Lambert dives and misses, taking out Jackson in the process and springing Shipley to the second level. Shipley rumbles for another 21 unpictured yards and the Horns have the ball at the MU 30.

EXAMINED PLAY NO. 2: 12:55 remaining in 1st Quarter; 1st and 10: Colt McCoy pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 7 yards, fumbled, recovered by Texas at the MU 13, out-of-bounds.

Texas comes out again with 11 personnel with the same formation and same look as it did in the play above. Again, Williams is uncontested by a distance of 10 yards (indicated by the gold overlay) at the line of scrimmage by the Missouri cornerback. Will Ebner and Sean Weatherspoon have stepped up closer to the line of scrimmage, with Gachkar playing at normal depth. Kenji Jackson steps up behind Gachkar, perhaps tipping off that A) Gachkar is bringing the blitz, B) Jackson is eyeing Shipley, or C) Both. In this case, it's option C.

For an offense, everything about this defensive look just BEGS for a screen or quick throw to the strong side. With that kind of cushion, you're basically daring the defense to play pitch and catch on every play and have the receiver run straight forward for a free 4-5 yards. The open slot and the deep corner means its an easy call and an easy read for the Texas offense. (All of the reasoning used here is exactly why Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel got absolutely REAMED after the loss to USC.)

Williams steps back behind the line of scrimmage as Shipley runs out of the slot to challenge the deep corner (not pictured). Highlighted on the left is Gachkar, who does indeed come on the blitz, which vacates the strongside of the field when he is unable to reach McCoy in time. The other highlight is Jackson, who will be left free, surprisingly, by Shipley.

Despite the quick throw, Missouri doesn't appear to be in horrible position. Shipley bypasses Jackson to go after the corner, perhaps trying to seal him off to free Williams down the sideline. Ebner hustles back from being upfield near the line of scrimmage to try to force Williams back out. Now it's a race to a spot. How far upfield can Williams get before he runs into Jackson and/or a wall of other defenders?

The answer is about 4-5 yards, as he's contacted by Jackson and Rutland as Shipley fails to hold his block. Williams eventually fights forward for another 2-3 yards. Again, I stress that by playing the secondary so deep, the Tigers dared the Horns to take those free yards.

Just to rub salt in the wound, Williams fumbles, only to have it go out of bounds. There's nothing to say here other than it'd be nice to have some bounces go Missouri's way one of these days against one of the "big boys" in the Big 12. With Williams' seven-yard reception here, the Longhorns have now gained 38 yards on passes that traveled a net of one yard downfield (3 yards downfield to Shipley, 2 yards behind the LOS to Williams).

EXAMINED PLAY NO. 3: Colt McCoy pass complete to Jordan Shipley for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

Once again, Texas comes out in the 11 Gun, this time with the strongside to the right, with the back on McCoy's right and Shipley in the right slot. In a nice change of pace, Missouri actually puts its corners near the line of scrimmage to contest the wideouts, especially now that Missouri has an extra defender in the form of the endline. Shipley remains largely uncontested at the LOS with Jasper Simmons nine yards away.

The line helps facilitate McCoy's roll to the right by turning the Mizzou D-Line. The wideout at the bottom of the screen runs off the cornerback to free up the sideline for Shipley. Highlighted is Simmons, who has an absolute no-win of a situation developing. Without knowing the details of the play call, Simmons appears responsible not only for Shipley flaring out, but also the back coming out of the backfield if he comes available for a pass. You can make the case that Shipley was the bigger threat and therefore should have earned Simmons' attention, but either way, he's going to be in some trouble.

By taking one step upfield toward the back, Simmons frees up the easy pass to Shipley. Simmons is out of position simply by circumstance, and is left hoping that the corner can help him out.

No dice. The corner is sealed, and Shipley struts in. Simmons is left asking, "What the hell was I supposed to do?"

The sad, sad result.

The Takeaway: Dave Steckel took over defensive coordinator duties hoping to simplify the defense and minimize the potential for the back-breaking long plays that were on loop in 2008. On this drive, Missouri looks incredibly paranoid about the athletes in the Texas receiving corps beating the Tiger secondary deep. All week, we'd heard that frustrating Texas was a matter of doing exactly what Missouri had tried to do all year -- sit deep, force short throws, hustle to the ball and tackle well. We'd also heard that Missouri felt comfortable enough with its base 4-3 to leave its backers in the slot instead of opting for another defensive back, even if it meant a favorable matchup for Jordan Shipley.

But before we try to make grandiose statements about this first drive, I should reiterate: These are isolated incidents on selected plays. Furthermore, it's not hard to come to the conclusion that Texas was the physically superior team. I still need to go through the rest of the game and see how/if Mizzou adjusted, but if Missouri is systemically opening itself to surrendering a minimum 5-6 yards a play with a simple audible or check down, that could certainly cause some issues down the stretch.

All in all, trust in Dave Steckel. Somewhere in between ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK and Bend But Don't Break is a happy medium. I sure as hell don't know where it is, and here's to hoping true football minds (which I'm certainly not) get it figured out for the next five games.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

---

Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, I've got to ask. Would Mack Brown be catching this much crap from Texas reporters and fans if he had played Colt McCoy with a sprained ankle? It's starting to annoy me a little bit. It's not a ligament tear, it's not a hairline fracture, it's not anything that is going to cause long-term problems--it's a sprain. It's going to hurt, and then it's going to get better. And especially considering Gabbert averaged 1.1 yards per pass more than Zac Robinson did on two legs (and as mentioned before, he was two drops away from 350 first-half passing yards...that's, uhh, not bad), I'm just not sure what the problem is here. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got rolled up by Donkey Kong Suh. And it's a damn shame that Missouri has now lost two games in a row in which they maybe could have won with a healthy Gabbert (definitely with Nebraska, maybe with OSU), but...that's football. Players get hurt, and when they feel good enough to play and won't cause long-term problems, they play, even if they're not at 100% effectiveness (and Gabbert absolutely isn't). The end.

(And for those suggesting Gabbert sit out the Texas game because we probably won't win anyway...come on. Gary Pinkel would be run out of town, relatively justifiably, if he actually did that. "He's saying we don't have a chance!" "He's not giving us a chance to win!!" People still resent Pinkel for getting rid of the fullback--how long would they hold a grudge if he more-or-less forfeited the Texas game to maybe do better later in the season? Gabbert should play, and Gabbert will play, and every coach in the country would have it that way.)

Anyway, with that off my chest, let's take a look back at Mizzou-OSU. Once again, the numbers tell you about what you thought they would.

	Mizzou (17)	OSU (33)
Close %	100%
Field Position %	48.5%	62.9%
Leverage %	72.1%	67.1%

TOTAL
EqPts	22.3	21.2
Close Success Rate	41.2%	41.4%
Close PPP	0.33	0.30
Close S&P	0.741	0.717

RUSHING
EqPts	6.5	7.8
Close Success Rate	52.2%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.28	0.22
Close S&P	0.806	0.622
Line Yards/carry	2.03	2.55

PASSING
EqPts	15.8	13.5
Close Success Rate	35.6%	42.9%
Close PPP	0.35	0.38
Close S&P	0.707	0.813
SD/PD Sack Rate	3.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	46.9%	53.2%
PPP	0.38	0.31
S&P	0.845	0.838

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	26.3%	17.4%
PPP	0.21	0.30
S&P	0.471	0.472

TURNOVERS
Number	4	0
Turnover Pts	19.4	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-19.4	+19.4

Q1 S&P	0.966	1.093
Q2 S&P	1.096	0.943
Q3 S&P	0.139	0.644
Q4 S&P	0.477	0.207

1st Down S&P	0.940	0.934
2nd Down S&P	0.779	0.525
3rd Down S&P	0.329	0.605

Projected Pt. Margin	-18.3	+18.3
Actual Pt. Margin	-16	+16

Reactions

Missouri outgained Oklahoma State by 42 yards, but only by 1.1 EqPts. Why? Because yards become much more valuable in opponents' field position, where the likelihood for points grows a lot faster, and Missouri got crushed in the field position game, starting three consecutive drives at their 14 as the game was being decided in the third quarter. OSU made some lovely defensive adjustments at halftime, and quite simply Blaine Gabbert didn't look as good in the second half. I remarked in the live blog that he just looked a lot stiffer after halftime, and nothing clicked for Missouri...as the numbers would attest.

A little more on Gabbert's ankle, just because. It really is a damn shame that the injury happened when it did. Here are Gabbert's season stats, before and after Suh rolled him up:

Before Ankle Injury: 92-for-139 (66.2%), 1,192 yards (8.6 per pass), 11 TD, 0 INT
After Ankle Injury: 34-for-79 (43.0%), 428 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD, 5 INT

Now, obviously it's not that simple. Before the injury, he was going against Nevada, Furman, et cetera, and after, he faced Nebraska and Oklahoma State. But still...he's gone from better-than-Ryan-Mallet numbers to worse-than-Josh-Freeman numbers as he's dropped from two good ankles to one. And at least two of the picks were directly related to the injury--the INT of the out route against Nebraska, when he clearly did not get enough juice on the ball, and the final INT against OSU, when his pass was woefully off-target. In pre-injury drives against Nebraska, he was 5-for-8 for 31 yards before the injury...and 12-for-35 for 103 yards and two picks after. With healthy legs, his numbers are still significantly better in those seven quarters, and Missouri potentially wins at least one more game. Damn you, Suh.

(And since I referenced it earlier, Jimmy Costello would probably have generated a better completion percentage than Gabbert but averaged at least a yard fewer per pass, probably two. The offensive gameplan would get extremely conservative with Costello in the game, and we haven't proven yet that our receivers, offensive line, running backs, etc., can move the ball 3-5 yards at a time. We're living and dying by the big play, and with Costello, we'd likely be without the big play.)

(And while we're at it, for the fans giving Pinkel crap for not having a capable backup...who in the Big 12 does have a capable backup? What would happen if Zac Robinson had to miss a game? Todd Reesing? Colt McCoy? Robert Griff...oh wait. Sam Bradf...oh wait. Only Texas Tech has similar quality from starter to backup...and maybe Nebraska, because apparently their starter isn't very good.)

Anyway, I promise I'm moving on now. More thoughts about OSU after the jump.

Field position, field position, field position. When your opponents are running 14% more plays in your territory than you are on theirs, you are giving yourself almost no margin for error. The third quarter was absolutely murderous for Mizzou despite the fact that the defense played damn well. But Mizzou was starting every drive from their 14, and OSU was starting every drive from midfield. When you're down seven to start the quarter, you are simply not giving yourself a chance to win.

(Now, this does come with a bit of a disclaimer: the third Mizzou drive starting at the 14 only started there becuase of the phantom hold penalty on Jasper Simmons' long kickoff return. Without that horrific call, Mizzou starts at OSU's 10, probably gets at least a field goal out of the drive, and cuts OSU's lead to either 27-20 or 27-24. But the stat sheet does not care about terrible penalty calls. The stat sheet is not sympathetic to your whines and cries. The stat sheet does not like you.)
Missouri actually stayed out of Passing Downs better than OSU did, but after some early success for Mizzou, that's where OSU clamped down the best on defense. They were much more mindful of the deep ball, and they relied on Gabbert inability to fire slants and outs as accurately.
Two conclusions can be drawn from the run-pass stats: 1) Missouri should have run more, and 2) OSU should have thrown more. OSU runs to soften you up as much as anything, but they just did not have much success there, and credit to Mizzou's defense for that. The Cowboys kept waiting for Mizzou to fall apart defensively and start getting gashed by the run, and it just didn't happen. Meanwhile, this really was a solid rushing performance for Mizzou, but as quickly as they found themselves in Passing Downs in the second half, the opportunity to work on the run never came about after halftime. Of course, David Yost and company still could have run the ball more, especially in those short-yardage situations late, but that's life. They clearly don't quite trust the run yet (it's not without just cause), and they probably won't during the Texas game either. Starting with Colorado on Halloween, they can start piling up the rushing yards.
Neither team generated any sort of pass rush whatsoever. We knew OSU didn't have much of a rush, but we hoped Mizzou's athletic ends would be getting at the QB more than they have this year. Granted, a less mobile quarterback would have been sacked 2-3 times Saturday night--Zac Robinson did an awesome job of evading the rush, but still...2-3 times still isn't that much, especially considering how many Passing Downs OSU attempted.
If you were to define the traits of a super-young football team, I think #1 would be "Struggles on Third Downs." Success on third downs is the last to come on offense, and...well, it hasn't come yet for Missouri. As Sean Weatherspoon said to that kid in the commercial, in due time. In due time.

Three Positives

The Defense. Yes, OSU was without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. But every offense Missouri has faced this season has performed below its season averages, and considering how much Mizzou's defense was up against the wall, and how much better it performed as the game wore on, they deserve major kudos. Hubert Anyiam had eight catches for 93 yards in the first half...and two for 26 in the second. OSU threw to him seven times in the second half and completed only two. They adjusted almost as well to OSU's offense as OSU's defense did to Mizzou's offense
Danario Alexander. A no-brainer. We fretted often before the season that this team didn't have a #1 receiver. It does, and he's a really, really good one. The passing game clearly isn't clicking on all cylinders, but it is not because of the lack of a go-to guy. You just can't go to the go-to guy on every pass, unfortunately.
The ~~Utes~~ Youths. Of the twelve players who made more than one non-special teams tackle Saturday night (sorry, Chris Willett, you don't count), ten are underclassmen. Andrew Gachkar looked great, Dominique Hamilton looked good, Jasper Simmons and Kenji Jackson looked good, Carl Gettis is back to being a helluva cornerback, Aldon Smith blocked two passes, Robert Steeples and Kip Edwards both got playing time and (aside from one play, where Steeples got burned and Simmons bailed him out) made the most of it. The anchor of this defense is still clearly Sean Weatherspoon, and obviously he will be gone in 2010, but there is a lot to like about this defense's future.

Three Negatives

Turnovers -- too many of them. It does not take a stat nerd to realize that you simply are not going to win many games with a -4 turnover differential. (Yes, here's another disclaimer: it should have been a -2 turnover differential instead, of course. Jasper Simmons' fumble was pretty clearly not a fumble, and Keith Toston fumbled late, but the replay official decided that he just wanted to end the game and go home instead of actually making the correct call. That, and the monitor from which he was basing his decisions was smaller than my work monitor...which isn't very big.)

In fact, since turnover margin is such an easy concept to understand, instead of elaborating further, I will instead point out this wonderful quote from Dave Steckel:
Finally, from the "There's no Such Thing as a Stupid Question Department," I asked Steckel to explain how small a defense's margin for error becomes against a quarterback like Texas' Colt McCoy, who completes 70 percent of his passes. His answer: "30 percent. That's called modern math. You asked."
Turnovers -- not enough of them. I have been quite pleased with the defense's development this year in terms of overall yardage allowed. But in struggling to find a pass rush, playing soft coverage at CB, and not having safeties experienced enough to play the ball better, they have intercepted only two passes. Clearly there are two parts to the turnover differential equation--committing them and forcing them. Mizzou has committed too many recently, but they also haven't forced enough.

Now...it's easy to just say "They need to force more turnovers!" and leave it at that, but that obviously comes with a price. You force turnovers by taking chances, and that opens you up to giving up more big plays. If I had to choose between either giving up few big plays or forcing a lot of turnovers, I'd go with the former. But as the defense gets more and more experienced, as maybe the young Agents Smith start to generate a better pass rush, and as the defensive backs get better at reading instead of reacting (and as the offenses on the schedule get worse), I hope that more takeaways will come.
Drops. Duh. You knew I'd have to mention this at least one more time. I understand that Blaine Gabbert probably throws passes too hard sometimes, but receivers go to college for free, with the understanding that their major job is to not drop passes. Two drops cost Mizzou at least 14 points Saturday night...in a game they lost by 16. This can't happen, especially now, when Gabbert is facing added degree of difficulty. The receivers need to help him out more than they are--only Danario Alexander is handling Gabbert's passes well enough.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Make Robinson dink and dunk

They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

No 40-yard gains for OSU, not even any 30-yarders, but to the extent that OSU's passing game succeeded on Saturday, it was due to the more intermediate passes. Four players caught passes of at least 20 yards, and while Missouri succeeded overall on defense, this did let OSU off the hook a few times.

Third Downs

[W]hen Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Missouri's defense was wonderful on Passing Downs, allowing OSU successes on fewer than 20% and a Passing Downs S&P of 0.472. Unfortunately, Missouri's own 0.471 S&P negated any advantage that came from this.

Run the freaking ball well

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

They did indeed run well...for a while. In the second half, they neither ran well nor got the opportunity. In the decisive third quarter, Missouri backs got two carries...that went for a combined one yard. It was a step in the right direction for the running game, but as mentioned above, it is clear from the play-calling that the coaching staff does not yet trust the running game against a real defense. With Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Kansas still on the schedule, the opportunity to get things going will present itself.

Summary

I'll just reiterate what we've been saying for the last week. BIG PICTURE, PERSPECTIVE, POSITIVITY, etc. No matter what happens on Saturday, the back half of Missouri's schedule is ripe for the picking. Nebraska generated a lot of positivity in the off-season by basically feasting on the crap teams on the back half of their schedule, and Missouri has a chance to do the same this year. Missouri just needs to perform well against Texas, stick together, and allow Blaine Gabbert to work through his pains, of both the physical and growing variety, and come out of the experience a better quarterback. With a healthy quarterback and a ton of underclassmen (now's a good time for a reminder: depending on the week, between 25 and 30 members of Missouri's two-deep are freshmen and sophomores) getting more and more experienced, this team could catch fire in the second half of the season if they can just avoid mental implosion in this tough three-game stretch.

It's a damn shame that Missouri couldn't beat either Nebraska or Oklahoma State--with the way the defense played, both games were there for the taking--but it's in the past. If Missouri loses to Texas, we'll read lots of stories and message board posts about how Missouri's falling apart, and in the basement of the North, and...who cares? Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So, I'd like to hang around and see if we can give 'em all a nice, big shitburger to eat.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou Links, 10-5-09

Bill C. — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:08:09 -0000

After a relatively disengaged (for me) weekend, it's time to get primed for Thursday night, baby. And it starts with your typical Monday boatload of links.

Mizzou-Nebraska Links!

KC Star: For now, Missouri's football program outshines Nebraska

Over the previous five seasons, Missouri has won six more games than Nebraska, three in Big 12 play. The Tigers have played in four straight bowl games, one more than the Cornhuskers in that span.

Missouri’s six NFL draft selections last April match the total of Nebraska players taken over the previous two years.

Conquests of ranked opponents, all-conference and All-America selections, postseason appearances and bowl trophies all favor Tigers of recent vintage.

But the most telling baton-passing moments have occurred on game days. Mizzou has toyed with the Huskers with a combined 93-23 score in two straight triumphs. Thursday, the Tigers go for their first three-game series winning streak since 1969.

It was around the time man first walked on the moon that Mizzou held its own with Nebraska in reputation and perception.
KC Star: MU-Nebraska matchup loaded with intrigue
KC Star: Nebraska returns tickets (?????????) as MU nears sellout
KC Star (Campus Corner): Exploring the Rankings for Mizzou and Nebraska; and updated depth chart
MUtigers.com: OFFICIAL RELEASE!!

Mizzou has won 4 of its last 6 games over Nebraska, with all 4 wins coming by no fewer than 17 points. Mizzou has won 3 straight in Columbia (41-24 in both 2003 and 2005, plus a 41-6 win in 2007), and that was capped last season with an historic 52-17 win in Lincoln, which marked Mizzou's first win in Nebraska since 1978. Missouri is looking to beat Nebraska for a third straight season - the last time that happened was during a stretch from 1967-69.

Mizzou's 3 straight wins in Columbia over Nebraska is the longest such streak since the Tigers won 4 straight in Columbia over the Huskers from 1947-53. Tiger Coach Gary Pinkel stands 4-4 against Nebraska in his 8 years on the Mizzou sideline. The last Tiger coach to have more wins against Nebraska than Pinkel was the College Football Hall of Famer, Dan Devine, who went 8-5 against the Huskers from 1958-70.
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou now looms as challenge for Huskers
Omaha World-Herald: With a roar, Tigers look to restore order, too
Omaha World-Herald: Getting to know Missouri: Gabbert, Tigers hard to tame
Lincoln Journal Star: Sean Weatherspoon in the middle of things
Nebraska State Paper: Beat Em and Join Em
Nebraska State Paper: Pinkel "Very Impressed" with Huskers
PowerMizzou: Where could the Huskers hurt Missouri?

Gabbert Links!

Post-Dispatch: Gabberts are living in middle of rivalry
Post-Dispatch: MU notebook: Blaine Gabbert's streak impresses Pinkel, even if it can't last
The Missourian: Pinkel expresses pleasure with Gabbert's poise
Omaha World-Herald: Tigers court a second Gabbert

And speaking of recruiting, here's a fun Twitter post from PowerMizzou's Gabe Dearmond:

Just got confirmation from Sheldon Richardson that he will visit for #Mizzou game against Nebraska on Thursday

Media Day Links!

Dave Matter: Tigers meet the press
On the depth chart, tight end Andrew Jones is back at No. 1, ahead of Beau Brinkley. ... An OR is listed between Jarrell Harrison and Kenji Jackson at strong safety and between Jasper SImmons and Hardy Ricks at free safety, though Harrison and Simmons were working with the No. 1 defense during practice walk-throughs. ... Brian Coulter is back listed as a starter at one defensive end spot, while there's an OR between Aldon Smith and Jacquies Smith at the other.
MUtigers.com: Press Conference Quotes
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Pinkel meets the media
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Pinkel on the Huskers
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Talking Nebraska

Mizzou Links, 10-2-09

Bill C. — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:28:16 -0000

Mizzou-Nebraska Links!

PowerMizzou: Question of the Day: Tigers vs Huskers
HuskerExtra.com (Lincoln Journal-Star): Psychologically speaking, NU has edge against Mizzou
HuskerExtra.com (Lincoln Journal-Star): NU alters routine for Thursday game
HuskerExtra.com (Lincoln Journal-Star): Huskers hoping to get boost from Smith, Osborne
HuskerExtra.com (Lincoln Journal-Star): Rex Burkhead making a strong first impression
NE StatePaper.com: Keep a Lid on it
The Missourian: ESPN to air Children's Hospital, Missouri School of Journalism commercials

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY

Bill C. — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 16:23:19 -0000

Here at Rock M Nation, we've got quite a few very talented people on our side. One of the best assets is the esteemed Mr. Bill Carter, who decided a few years ago to become, as a hobby, the most badass sports photographer in the area. Thanks to his "hobby", we are able to present the Rock M Photo Gallery for the Bowling Green game. Enjoy.

SB Nation - Kenji Jackson

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(36)

Buffs(17)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score

Texas(41)

Mizzou(7)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Anatomy of a Deflating Start: A look at Texas' first drive against Missouri

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(17)

OSU(33)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou Links, 10-5-09

Mizzou Links, 10-2-09

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY

Mizzou
(36)

Buffs
(17)

Texas
(41)

Mizzou
(7)

Mizzou
(17)

OSU
(33)