SB Nation - Navorro Bowman

We're All Americans, But We're Not All All-Americans

Oops Pow Surprise — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:51:28 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Iowa's Pat Angerer (43) celebrates with teammates Allen Reisner and Dace Richardson, right, after Iowa blocked a Northern Iowa field goal on the final play. Iowa won 17-16. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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As is usually the case after a 10-win season, the accolades are beginning to pour in for the Iowa Hawkeye football team. Everyone and their mom has an all-conference or All-American team, but the two that actually matter--Walter Camp and the AP--are now out. And for the 33th year in a row, the unanimous selection for player of the year is Frank Stallone*.

More importantly, the AP named three Hawkeyes to their All-American teams. While nobody made it onto the first team, thanks to Ricky Stanzi's ankle injury--come on, you know if he stays healthy and Iowa goes 11-1 and finishes at #5 or so, even the guys on defense get a little bit more of a bump--both Bryan Bulaga and Pat Angerer made it to the second team, while Tyler Sash made third-team AA as a sophomore. A fine moment for all three players (two of whom, as we insular and provincial types are quick to point out, are native Iowans).

Meanwhile, the Walter Camp Foundation agreed with the AP, naming Bulaga and Angerer to their second team as well and effectively establishing the two as the de facto MVPs of their respective sides of the ball. We have a little beef with each designation, but for wholly different reasons.

First, though Bulaga is by far the best pro prospect on the line as of right now and was utterly dominant in 2008, the reality is that even notwithstanding the 3-week absence as he recovered from thyroid issues, he struggled in 2009. Brandon Graham and O'Brien Schofield manhandled Bulaga. And while those are two very good defensive ends, so was Aaron Maybin, the 11th pick of the 2009 by the Buffalo Bills and Bryan Bulaga's personal prison bitch after Iowa-PSU 2008. There was a substantial dropoff in play by Bulaga in 2009, and voters just didn't notice it when it came time to hand out awards.

Meanwhile, Dace Richardson was actually very good in his return to the line, and he got a fair amount of media attention when mid-season awards were being handed out. Then his ankle was rolled up on against Michigan State, and he disappeared from both the depth chart and voters' attention. But why should he have been punished for an ankle injury while voters looked past Bulaga's absence of a similar length? It's all past reputation, and that's not really fair to guys who come from nowhere and work their butts off--especially in their senior year, where there's no chance for any payoff in the "rewarded in Year X for play in Year X-minus-1" system that's come to be when it comes to honoring offensive linemen.

What this comes down to is that if the AP were to select an Iowa lineman for All-American this season, we'd have preferred it be Dace--though we'll certainly "settle for" Bulaga instead. If both men are playing their last game for Iowa next month, as lots of speculation suggests, then they've both had stellar careers in the black and gold and we wish them well.

On defense, on the other hand, Pat Angerer didn't really establish himself as the most dominant player for that Iowa defense, but that's hardly through any fault of his own. After all, one usually does so by being simply better than his teammates, and the talent level on the Iowa defense this year was both so high and so consistent that it was hard to see Angerer as someone who was the best player on defense. After all, you could always come back with, "well why not Sash? Or Adrian Clayborn? Or Amari Spievey? Or A.J. Edds? Or, hell, Jeremiha Hunter?" We're not saying that Angerer was the 6th best player on the Iowa defense by any means--just that ranking the top 5 or 6 or so would be impossible, because the gaps would be so miniscule that personal preference could easily mean a 3- or 4-spot swing here or there and it wouldn't even be objectionable.

Angerer's accolades, then, come from two areas: 1) his name, which is everything you could ever hope for times infinity; 2) and his stats, which sort of sneak up on you for the same reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph. As mentioned before, he was 5th in the nation in tackles at 11.3 a game. That's pretty outstanding, especially since--as TRE noticed during the season--Angerer's real strength might have been in pass coverage, not run support.

Still, absent game-changing plays, it's somewhat difficult to notice the overall impact a player has on a game. And all of those game-changing plays seemed to happen to other players--most notably Sash and Clayborn, and to a lesser extent Spievey.

Thus we have a weird ambiguity about how we look at Angerer's standing as the most highly-lauded member of the 2009 Iowa defense. It's not that he didn't deserve it--far from it--but with a defense like Iowa's, you could basically pick a name out of a hat and feel relatively confident that you made a good choice. It was that kind of year. Effectively singling out Angerer for praise, then, seems unusual and almost a little unfair. Oh well. There are worse problems to have.

Full AP All-American teams are after the break.

First team
Offense
	   Quarterback -- Colt McCoy, senior, 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, Texas.
	   Running backs -- Toby Gerhart, senior, 6-1, 235, Stanford; Mark Ingram, sophomore, 5-10, 212, Alabama.
	   Tackles -- Russell Okung, senior, 6-5, 301, Oklahoma State; Trent Williams, senior, 6-5, 318, Oklahoma.
	   Guards -- Michael Johnson, senior, 6-6, 305, Alabama; Mike Iupati, senior, 6-6, 330, Idaho.
	   Center -- J.D. Walton, senior, 6-3, 305, Baylor.
	   Tight end -- Aaron Hernandez, junior, 6-2, 250, Florida.
	   Wide receivers -- Golden Tate, junior, 5-11, 195, Notre Dame; Jordan Shipley, senior, 6-0, 190, Texas.
	   All-purpose player -- C.J. Spiller, senior, 5-11, 195, Clemson.
	   Kicker -- Leigh Tiffin, senior, 6-2, 212, Alabama.
Defense
	   Ends -- Jerry Hughes, senior, 6-3, 257, TCU; Derrick Morgan, junior, 6-4, 272, Georgia Tech.
	   Tackles -- Ndamukong Suh, senior, 6-4, 300, Nebraska; Terrence Cody, senior, 6-5, 365, Alabama.
	   Linebackers -- Rolando McClain, junior, 6-4, 258, Alabama; Greg Jones, junior, 6-1, 228, Michigan State; Eric Norwood, senior, 6-1, 252, South Carolina.
	   Cornerbacks -- Joe Haden, junior, 5-11, 190, Florida; Javier Arenas, senior, 5-9, 198, Alabama.
	   Safeties -- Eric Berry, junior, 5-11, 203, Tennessee; Earl Thomas, sophomore, 5-10, 197, Texas.
	   Punter -- Drew Butler, sophomore, 6-2, 201, Georgia.
Second team
	   Quarterback -- Tim Tebow, senior, Florida.
	   Running backs -- Ryan Mathews, junior, Fresno State; Dion Lewis, freshman, Pittsburgh.
	   Tackles -- Bryan Bulaga, junior, Iowa; Chris Marinelli, senior, Stanford.
	   Guards -- Rodney Hudson, junior, Florida State; Mike Pouncey, junior, Florida.
	   Center -- Maurkice Pouncey, junior, Florida.
	   Tight end -- Dennis Pitta, senior, BYU.
	   Wide receivers -- Mardy Gilyard, senior, Cincinnati; Danario Alexander, senior, Missouri.
	   All-purpose player -- James Rodgers, junior, Oregon State.
	   Kicker -- Kai Forbath, junior, UCLA.
Defense
	   Ends -- Von Miller, junior, Texas A&M; Brandon Graham, senior, Michigan.
	   Tackles -- Gerald McCoy, junior, Oklahoma; Jared Odrick, senior, Penn State.
	   Linebackers -- Pat Angerer, senior, Iowa; Brandon Spikes, senior, Florida; Sean Weatherspoon, senior, Missouri.
	   Cornerbacks -- Perrish Cox, senior, Oklahoma State; Kyle Wilson, senior, Boise State.
	   Safeties -- Taylor Mays, senior, Southern California; Rahim Moore, sophomore, UCLA.
	   Punter -- Zoltan Mesko, senior, Michigan.
Third team
Offense
	   Quarterback -- Kellen Moore, sophomore, Boise State
	   Running backs -- LaMichael James, redshirt freshman, Oregon; Jacquizz Rodgers, sophomore, Oregon State.
	   Tackles -- Dennis Landolt, senior, Penn State; Ciron Black, senior, LSU.
	   Guards -- Brandon Carter, senior, Texas Tech; Jeff Byers, senior, Southern California.
	   Center -- Chris Hall, senior, Texas.
	   Tight end -- Dorin Dickerson, senior, Pittsburgh.
	   Wide receivers -- Freddie Barnes, senior, Bowling Green; Demaryius Thomas, junior, Georgia Tech.
	   All-purpose player -- Dexter McCluster, senior, Mississippi.
	   Kicker -- Hunter Lawrence, senior, Texas.
Defense
	   Ends -- Jeremy Beal, junior, Oklahoma; Brandon Sharpe, senior, Texas Tech.
	   Tackles -- Brian Price, junior, UCLA; Dan Williams, senior, Tennessee.
	   Linebackers -- Sergio Kindle, senior, Texas; Cody Grimm, senior, Virginia Tech; Navorro Bowman, junior, Penn State.
	   Cornerbacks -- Brandon Harris, sophomore, Miami; Alterraun Verner, senior, UCLA.
	   Safeties -- Tyler Sash, sophomore, Iowa; Mark Barron, sophomore, Alabama.
	   Punter -- Matt Reagan, senior, Memphis.

*Did you know he was in Tombstone, a.k.a. the SINGLE GREATEST MOVIE IN HISTORY? And in a phenomenal scene, to boot.

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Preview: Michigan State vs. Penn State

LVS — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:20:02 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Keshawn Martin (82) scores a touchdown on a 48-yard pass reception during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Western Michigan, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 49-14. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN

3:30 (ET), ABC (coverage map)

WEATHER: 52 DEGREES AT KICKOFF, TEMPERATURE FALLING AFTER DUSK.

Hey, a game that's not the most important of the season! Your Spartans obviously did the heavy lifting last week against Purdue; in all likelihood, this game is not about whether MSU will make a bowl, but rather, about whether we're going to San Antonio or Orlando or, of course, rollin' down Woodward to Ford Field (!). Penn State, after a season that has to be characterized as quite disappointing, amazingly still has a shot at a BCS berth. You know the backstory: last season, PSU absolutely demolished us; the season before, however, was good times:

It appears that the play-by-play guy attended the Joe Buck school of announcing excitement. Also, I miss Devin Thomas.

So, here cometh TEH GREATEST RIVALRY GAME IN ALL TEH LAND, and the opportunity to beat a team with a pulse for the first time this season. (Says the guy whose team's best win is against Temple. w00t.) The 8-million member PSU blogosphere and commentariat seems surprisingly reticent about this game. But, after last week's defensive fiasco I'm simply not comfortable picking us to win against teams with competent offenses. Penn State is such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.

More, after the jump.

Big game plz, Colin.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: At this point, I think the secondary is probably going to suck no matter what we do, so we might as well stack the box to try to stop the run and get as much pressure on Darryl Clark as possible. Indeed, as RUTS told us, this is what you want to do with Clark:

He's like about any other good, but not great, quarterback. If he has a clean pocket and can set his feet, he's as good as anyone in the country. If he gets hit too much, he gets rattled and starts making bad decisions with the ball. In that sense, he can be knocked back into looking like a talented quarterback in his second or third start -- he thinks he can make throws that he can't actually pull off.

Clark struggled mightily in the Iowa and Ohio State games--and even in the Illinois game--because he was under pressure (ding ding ding da da ding ding). Pressuring him may allow Clark some opportunities to scramble (as Brian said earlier this year, he's "not Michael Vick but isn't John Navarre, either."), but it's probably the best chance to contain the PSU offense. PSU partisans seem to think that our defensive line will have success against their offensive line, and pressure Clark heavily; I'm not so certain. Many anticipated that Penn State's offensive line was going to be the downfall of the team this year, as it was the most inexperienced group in the conference. PSU has allowed only 12 sacks on the season, although it looked overmatched against Adrian Clayborn and Cameron Heyward, among others. But, uh, we don't have Clayborn or Heyward; we've got a defensive line which failed to pressure Joey Elliott (until the last play, of course), and hasn't proven the ability to apply pressure on its own. My suspicion is that, if PSU is content to throw from three-step drops, they'll have a lot of success: we won't have the ability to get to Clark that quickly, and our secondary is obviously vulnerable. Bottom line: stack the box, try to get pressure, hope for the best.

And, about those guys Clark will be throwing to: RUTS sez . . .

Starting WR Chaz Powell is out for the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, you'll see a rotating group including the very tall Brett Brackett and the very quick Curtis Drake. Maybe true freshman Justin Brown gets in the game, but I doubt it. Graham Zug had a nightmare game against Indiana last week, but that was mostly due to fumbling punts. He runs good routes and gets open against passive zone coverages. Really, that goes for the whole group -- if you can press and bump them, they become ineffective quickly. [ . . . ]

Derek Moye is probably our best receiver, but he was totally shut out by Ohio State's press coverage and only had two catches for 28 yards against Indiana. Because of that, I suspect PSU will make an effort to get him involved quickly.

Moye is indeed good: 41 catches for 676 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. He's 6'5", 195 pounds . . . and if you're thinking, "holy hell, he's Mike Floyd in disguise," well, yeah, me too. He's not quite there, talent-wise, but, erm, I wouldn't want to be fighting for a jump ball against him. I suspect that our cornerbacks wouldn't want to be, either. And, yeah, about that Quarless guy: he reminds me a lot of Kellen Davis in that he's ludicrous athletically, but the results don't quite meet the expectations. But, the same could be said of Garrett Graham, and that didn't end so well for us earlier this year.

This is probably Evan Royster's last regular season game for Penn State, as most expect him to jump to the NFL.
Last year, he only carried the ball 12 times against MSU, but those carries were relatively successful, as he averaged 6.6 yards per game. This season, he's been a bit up-and-down: he had big games against Northwestern and Minnesota, but not-so-good efforts against Iowa and Ohio State. MSU's rush defense has been mostly a positive this season, although last week was a bit of a regression. I suspect that Royster will approach 100 yards but not be the deciding factor in this game. His backup, Stephfon Green, has intermittently battled injuries and hasn't played much or well since the Illinois game much earlier this season.

Safe to say at this point: one of my all-time favorite Spartan football players.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: . . . we need for Kirk Cousins to have the best game of his career. As a preliminary matter, let's stipulate that we're going to get basically nothing against Penn State on the ground: the Lions are 8th nationally against the run, and our rushing offense is not good. The goal in this game should be to do just enough to semi-effectively set up play action.

Ah, so the main event: MSU's passing offense vs. Penn State's pass defense. It starts wtih the offensive line, obviously. Penn State doesn't have Tamba Hali or Courtney Brown or anyone of similar fear-producing ability, but the stats are certainly there: they lead the conference in sacks, and while Brian noted that:

[t]he numbers are impressive—PSU is 11th nationally with three sacks per game—but there is the whole schedule thing to take into account. Jack Crawford has four sacks, all of which come against the Akrons and Temples on the schedule. In Penn State's three real-ish games, they acquired one sack (Odrick) against Minnesota, three (Crawford, Latimore, Stanley) against Illinois, and two (Hull and Crawford/Lynn) against Iowa.

. . . Penn State sacked Forcier/Robinson 5 times, and then, the next week, sacked Mike Kafka 6 times. Since then, things have cooled down a bit: they weren't able to sack Terrelle Pryor (although Pryor is surely one of the most difficult sacks in the country), and were only able to get to Ben Chappell twice last week. Nonetheless, this is an impressive line; they're led by scary beast Jared Odrick, who has 6 sacks, and the aforementioned Jack Crawford, who now has 5.5. RUTS says that:

Penn State loves to just send the defensive line if they can get away with it. The defensive scheme actually depends on it, but PSU's defensive ends have been several notches below their predecessors. There's no Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, or Tamba Hali on this defensive line, so they'll send linebackers on occasion, and maybe mix in a corner blitz once or twice per game, but that's it.

We can't let them get tons of pressure from the front four alone. I know it's tempting disaster to say that I *want* Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee, and the corners to blitz, but Penn State blitzing and leaving the secondary exposed is how Cousins will be able to throw for lots of yards.

Penn State's defense is statistically impressive against the pass: 16th nationally in pass efficiency defense, and 17th nationally in pass defense. Once again, I'll let RUTS write my preview for me:

Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary. Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year. Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury. CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty. So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game.

So, PSU is good, but they're not scary in the way that Iowa is: this season, the Lions have allowed 252 yards passing to Northwestern, 263 to Illinois (!), and 298 last week to Indiana. (Note that they won all three of those games, however.) Quite frankly, our passing offense is better than any of those teams'. I think Cousins has a big day, and throws for at least 250 yards; look for B.J. Cunningham to play the Devin Thomas role this time around. If he's able to deliver, Cousins stands in line for first team all-conference honors, so there should be some personal motivation, too.

FINAL PREDICTION: Cut and paste, for starters:

Clark picked our defense apart last year, and while you don't have Derrick Williams anymore, our pass defense is even worse this time around. Also, I have distressing visions of Jared Odrick pwning whoever's blocking him and not giving Cousins enough time to be comfortable.

More generally, Dantonio has done a lot of good things during his time at MSU, but beating teams with appreciably more talent certainly hasn't been one of those things. So, I'll remain skeptical until we finally win one of these games. It's at home, which is good, and I could definitely see the special teams stats ending up very lopsided in our favor. But PSU is the better team, and you're playing for more: a win for us would upgrade our bowl game slightly, but a win for PSU might send you guys to the BCS. So, an upset isn't out of the possibility, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

I wrote that yesterday morning, and honestly, I'm a bit more optimistic now. Penn State fans seem quite worried about this game, and one columnist even questions whether Penn State's players even have their hearts into the game anymore. Which, like, what? Even if that's true, you're playing for the BCS! I'd dismiss it out of hand if the sentiment didn't seem to be a common one across the PSU internets.

One thing that doesn't fit into my normal preview format: if you've been reading previews of this game anywhere else, you'll know that PSU's special teams have been an unmitigated disaster this year, and ours have been very good. I'm normally skeptical that special teams play has any predictive value, but here the discrepancy between the teams seems so great that it may indeed be relevant this week. Keshawn Martin, Brett Swenson, Aaron Bates: keep on doing what you do so well. kthx.

Nonetheless, this is a pretty talented football team we're playing. PSU is excellent on defense, and the offense -- with many of the same players -- ripped us apart last year. It seems that I'm saying this every week now, but truly, our defense will determine whether we win this game. If they show up, we have a chance. If they play like they did last week, we don't. It's awfully tempting to say that MSU wins this game on the strength of the passing game and special teams play. But, visions of Quarless and Zug running rampant across the middle of the field prevent me from tempting fate, for now. Penn State 31, Michigan State 27.

Your thoughts welcome, of course.

Disruption Percentage: The Saga Continues

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Tom Strattman - AP

A nondisruptive play by the MSU defense.

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OR "Statistics That Will Help Bring You Down from the Post-Bowl-Game-Clinching-Win High"

Premise:

Boiled down to its basics, playing offense successfully in the sport of football is pretty simple:

Gain 10 yards in 3 tries.

Repeat until you reach the the end zone.

. . . At the hypothetical extreme, a team that could gain exactly 3.5 yards on every play could achieve that goal. Alternately, two rushing plays of 5 yards each or a single pass completion in three attempts for 10 yards does the trick.

The goal of any football defense, then, has to be to disrupt the opposing offense's rhythm, with the goal of creating a situation where picking up 3-5 yards per play isn't enough to keep a drive going.

In an attempt to quantify the success (or lack thereof) of the Michigan State defense in disrupting opposing offenses, we here at TOC have developed a new-fangled metric we call "disruption percentage." The percentage is calculated by summing the five defensive statistics below (presented in ascending order of disruptiveness) and dividing the total by the number of offensive plays run by the opposition:

Quarterback hurries: Increasing the odds the offense will throw an incomplete pass and lose an opportunity to gain yardage toward a first down
Pass break-ups: Ending an attempted pass play and reducing the number of downs the opposition has to pick up a first down
Tackles for loss: Increasing the yardage the offense has to gain to achieve a first down by sacking the quarterback or stopping a running play for a loss
Forced fumbles: Creating the opportunity to recover a fumble and end the opponent's offensive possession
Interceptions: Definitively ending the opponent's offensive possession

(Notes: (a) If specific stats on penalties by the opposing offense--holding, etc.--were readily available, we'd include those, as well. (b) We define "forced fumble" liberally, counting any fumble by the offense, even if it's not directly attributable to a defensive player. (c) Initially, we didn't include pass break-ups, but we've added them. That helps eliminate a bias toward blitzing; if you can rush 3 and drop 8 effectively, that should show up in pass break-ups. (d) There's some double-counting going on, as a QB hurry can lead to an interception, etc.)

Here are the updated game-by-game numbers for MSU:

Opponent	QBH	PBR	TFL	FF	INT	TOTAL	Plays	Disrupt%
Montana St	5	2	4	0	0	11	54	20.4
Central Mich	0	4	6	0	1	11	76	14.5
Notre Dame	1	3	4	1	1	10	71	14.1
Wisconsin	4	2	3	1	0	10	81	12.3
Michigan	1	3	10	3	1	18	60	30.0
Illinois	6	3	8	0	1	18	60	30.0
Northwestern	2	2	6	3	0	13	76	17.1
Iowa	0	4	5	0	0	9	66	13.6
Minnesota	0	1	5	1	1	8	72	11.1
Western	5	4	4	1	0	14	55	25.5
Purdue	0	3	5	2	0	10	92	10.9
TOTAL	24	31	60	12	5	132	763	17.3

The first time we went through this exercise was after the Northwestern game. At that point, we were hopeful that the back-to-back 30% performances, followed by the decent 17.1% against Northwestern's short-pass-based offense portended good things for the defense. It looked like maybe the new starters were gelling in the base 4-3 defense and our remaining opponents would suffer because of it.

Then we played two more games. Neither of which turned out very well.

LVS, during the week after the Minnesota game:

It probably comes as very little surprise to MSU fans that two of the three least disruptive defensive performances have come in the past two weeks. Iowa was somewhat predictable, as that's a team that will, ideally, play a conservative offensive game because their defense is so good. Of course, that's not exactly how things have worked out this season for them: one or two of the third quarter STANZIBALLS against Indiana would have been, uh, enormously useful in our game. Our complete failure to hurry the quarterback against Iowa probably cost us our chance at one or two easy interceptions. And the Minnesota game . . . well, we all knew that Saturday night was our worst defensive performance of the season, and these statistics certainly buttress that feeling.

Now we've played two more games. The defense's performance against Western was certainly acceptable (particularly given that the game had basically been decided before halftime).

The performance against Purdue? Not so much. While the disruption percentage was fractionally better than the season-low showing against Minnesota, I'm going to say the defensive performance against the Boilermakers was the worst of the season. Two reasons:

The Gophers made several spectacular passes/receptions against us on their way to 42 points. Purdue, on the other hand, just seemed to take the easy yards available to them all afternoon, without having to doing anything of particular offensive brilliance. (In the words of Mark Dantonio: "Today was a day of big plays for us. We made a play at the beginning of the game on defense, one at the end of the game on defense, and somewhere in there, there were 90 other plays.")
Four of the five tackles for loss MSU posted against Purdue were on running plays. So in terms of the pass defense, which has been the major concern all year long, the defense made only 4 disruptive plays on 55 Purdue passing attempts.

(We'll be able to say more about the exact nature of the miserable defensive performance against the Boilermakers when DrDetroit finishes his MSUFR later this week.)

The good news is that MSU got its first win of the season with a sub-15 disruption percentage. The bad news is that, going into the two remaining games against Penn State and a yet-to-be-determined bowl opponent that will probably have a decent offense, the Spartan defense appears to be getting less-and-less disruptive. The performances against Michigan and Illinois--two teams now at the bottom of the conference standings--clearly have to be classified as outliers. And the idea that sticking with your base defense in 90% of situations so that the players become a well-oiled machine as the season progresses doesn't carry much water any more.

Instead, predictable defensive schemes have lead to quotes like the ones below from opposing players/coaches.

Adam Weber:

We were just hoping that they were lined up in that same defense, and sure enough, first play walking up to the line, they’re in the defense we want them to be.

Danny Hope:

We had a great game plan. They have a very vanilla defensive formation. We knew what were up against and what we had to do. We just had to execute and I felt like we really did.

(HTs: Con-T, LVS)

Just to make sure that I'm not mixcontextualizing (word?) the MSU disruption percentage data, I went ahead and ran the numbers for the other ten Big Ten teams.

Team	QBH	PBR	TFL	FF	INT	TOTAL	Plays	Disrupt%	Yds/G	Yds/G Rk
Iowa	18	56	61	17	19	171	716	23.9	294.5	3
Wisconsin	18	29	73	13	13	146	612	23.9	307.4	4
Penn State	6	43	91	9	11	160	704	22.7	272.0	2
Ohio State	10	30	65	20	19	144	701	20.5	258.3	1
Illinois	15	40	56	16	4	131	685	19.1	400.3	10
Northwestern	19	22	56	22	14	133	705	18.9	345.2	5
Minnesota	4	49	61	23	9	146	784	18.6	381.8	8
Michigan	7	31	77	13	10	138	768	18.0	400.2	9
Purdue	3	32	73	20	10	138	769	17.9	368.8	7
Michigan St	24	31	60	12	5	132	763	17.3	350.9	6
Indiana	6	25	63	22	16	132	774	17.1	407.5	11
TOTAL	130	388	736	187	130	1,571	7,981	19.7

These are full-season numbers. Ideally, we'd work with conference-only numbers to get a flatter playing field, but those aren't readily available.

I've ranked the teams from best to worst in terms of disruption percentage and included total defense (yards/game) figures and ranks for comparison. My working hypothesis is that disruption percentage may have some predictive value, as it helps separate out the degree to which a defense is forcing bad plays versus the degree to which an offense is just executive really well.

(That's not a perfect distinction. Good pass blocking, for example, is obviously a function of good execution. But, as a pro-predictive example, disruption percentage gives a defense credit for a good pass rush that results in a quarterback hurry, even if the offense nevertheless throws a really good pass to a well-covered receiver that goes for a long gain. And it doesn't give credit for a pass an opposing quarterback just flat underthrows even though he's under no particular durress.)

The disruption percentage and total defense ranks show a high degree of correlation. Illinois and MSU are the exceptions. Based on my theory, that would mean Illinois has been somewhat unlucky and MSU has been somewhat lucky in terms of how their fundamental defensive performances have translated into yardage gained by their opponents. It could also mean Illinois plays an aggressive defense that gets burnt by long plays quite a bit--and vice versa for MSU.

Regardless, the numbers demonstrate that the Michigan State defense has been among the least disruptive in the conference this season--just two-tenths of a percentage point ahead of last-place Indiana. The best defense in the league come close to doing something disruptive on 1 out of every 4 plays. MSU, meanwhile, is doing it on only 1 of 6 plays. In their worst performances, that ratio drops to 1 out of every 9 plays.

Most BCS-conference-level offenses are going to find ways to pick up first downs when the defense doesn't do anything to force them out of their rhythm on 8 out of 9 plays. Fixing that big-picture problem is the key factor if this football team is to have any success in the two games that remain this season and, perhaps more importantly, in the new season that begins less than 10 months from now.

Bonus conference-wide observations, since we're here:

The league-leading number of quarterback hurries (24) for MSU is somewhat puzzling, given that 5 teams in the conference only register a QB hurry figure in the single digits. I initially thought this might be a function of inconsistent statistical scoring. But the number of hurries per game for MSU isn't any different at home than it is on the road; I'm assuming the same person scores the game for both sides in each game. Perhaps that's not the case for individual defensive stats, though. If that's the case and MSU QB-hurry numbers are inflated, their disruption numbers would become downright abysmal compared to the rest of the league. Alternately, the high number of QB hurries could be a function of blitzes that are only semi-effective; pass rushers are getting to the quarterback with a high frequency, but not in time to register a sack. (Although MSU does still rank 2nd in the league in sacks--so this whole thing has me puzzled.)
The Iowa secondary is as good as advertised. Totaling pass break-ups and interceptions, you get 75 disruptive plays in pass coverage for the Hawkeyes. That's 17 more than the second best subtotal in the league (Minnesota's 58).
Given Michigan's disappointing season, Brandon Graham won't win the Big Ten defensive player of the year award. But he may well be the single most effective defensive player in the league. On a team with only the 8th highest disruption percentage in the league, he's registered 26 individual disruptive plays (21.0 TFLs, 2 FFs, 2 PBRs, 1 QBH), which represents nearly 1 out 5 (18.8%) of his team's total disruptive plays.
Those numbers do trail O'Brien Schofield's (29.5 disruptive plays; 19.5 TFLs, 7 QBHs, 2 FFs, 1 PBR; 20.2% of his team's total), but Schofield is presumably getting more help from his comrades on the Wisconsin defense so that opposing offenses can't focus on double-teaming him quite as much.
Other top performers: Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) has 27.5 disruptive plays. Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) has 23.5. Jamie Kirlew (Indiana) also has 23.5. Somewhat frighteningly, Penn State has three players with at least 16: Jack Crawford (17.5), Navorro Bowman (17.0), and Sean Lee (16.5).
The individual numbers are obviously skewed toward defensive linemen, since tackles for losses make up almost half of disruptive plays.
Greg Jones has 20.0 disruptive plays (11.0 TFLs, 7 QBHs,1 FF, 1 PBR). That's a very good total for a linebacker and equal to 15.2% of MSU's total.
Returning to the frightening-Penn-State-stat category, the Nittany Lions' 91 tackles for loss are 14 better than the #2 team in the league (Michigan). Kirk Cousins is going to need to get the ball out to his receivers quickly on Saturday and, even more than usual, shouldn't count on any help from the running game.
Ohio State leads the league in the percentage of plays on which a potential turnover (forced fumbles plus interceptions) is created: 5.6%. In the other three categories, they're actually pretty unremarkable.
Michigan State, meanwhile, ranks dead last in that category at just 2.3%.
Let's go ahead and end there, for empahsis.

Special Teams Coach: Located And Free

Run Up The Score — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 17:52:39 -0000

Well, this wasn't difficult. God bless the internets.

Lost in yesterday's crapfest -- Navorro Bowman has likely played his last game at Beaver Stadium. As for injuries, Brandon Beachum sustained what appeared to be a very serious knee injury on the second half kickoff. A.J. Wallace left the game with a concussion, and Chaz Powell left the game with what was preliminarily described as a sprain of his AC shoulder joint.

Despite Penn State's lazy performance, they're likely to nudge even closer to the magical top 14 of the BCS standings. Penn State started the day ranked #18 in the rankings, but #9 USC, #10 Iowa, #14 Miami, #15 Houston, #16 Utah, and #17 Arizona all lost.

Wait 'til next year: Penn State 31, Indiana 20.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 23:16:38 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

This says it all.

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For the 14th time in 15 years, the Hoosiers have failed to qualify for postseason play and are assured of a losing season. Here are the stats. For the fifth time in seven Big Ten games, IU led or was tied at the half. In this game, the Hoosiers led 10-0 before allowing 24 unanswered points. With the game tied 10-10 in the third quarter, IU was driving when Navorro Bowman returned an interception 73 yards for a touchdown.

I'm not going to spend a ton of time breaking this one down. IU was able to move the ball at times, and won the turnover battle 4-1 (again), but couldn't hold an early lead. Neither offense stood out statistically: Penn State averaged 5.5 yards per play, IU 4.6. Darius Willis missed the game with injury and IU's running game suffered, but the running game has struggled against tough defenses all year. Once again, IU's excellent wideouts played well, and the offensive skill positions provide the most reason for optimism. Chappell played well, and the pick 6 really wasn't his fault.

So, for the 13th time in 15 years, the Hoosiers will be playing for nothing but pride in the Bucket game. Because of their loss to Michigan State, the Boilermakers are in the same boat. I'll have much more to say about the Purdue game as the week transpires. I would hope that Bill Lynch has the telecast of last year's game on continuous loop in the weight room, conference room, training room, dorm rooms, and so on. To say the Hoosiers will be playing with pride may be a bit presumptuous. All too often in the last 15 years the Hoosiers have failed to show much pride or intensity in the Bucket game.

I'm sure that win or lose, we will hear much after the season about how improved the Hoosiers were in 2009. It's true to an extent, but part of the reason is because 2008 was so unbelievably bad, one of the least competitive seasons in the history of a program with lots of bad seasons. Other than the win over Northwestern, IU failed to compete with any decent team in 2008, and obviously did improve in that regard. On the other hand, IU, thanks to a huge turnover advantage that is at least partly due to luck, took some big leads but failed to hold most of them. Was 2009 progress, or simply a wasted opportunity? Ask me this time next year.

Royster And Bowman To Bolt?

Run Up The Score — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:00:59 -0000

Some Senior Day speculation -- is it also the last home game for Evan Royster and Navorro Bowman?

Bowman and Royster might not be in Maybin's class, but both of them are clearly NFL-caliber players. Both would go very high in next April's draft.

Todd McShay, a well-regarded talent evaluator who works for ESPN and Scouts, Inc., ranks Bowman as the 13th-best player in college football. He has Royster ranked 50th.

Bowman and Royster should at least think about leaving early.

They should think about it, yes. There's something to be said for Penn State's deficient offensive line and Royster's lack of success this season, but Royster can't be totally excused for his performance in 2009. He hasn't been the same cerebral, decisive runner we saw in 2008, even when given solid running lanes. Bob Flounders makes a hell of a point in that column, though -- just wait until you see opposing teams load up against Penn State's running game next year with Kevin Newsome under center.

Royster won't be a combine sensation and if McShay thinks he's the 50th best player on the board, it's further proof that McShay is certifiable. With so many NFL teams going to a by-committee approach to their backfields, only the true superstar running backs are going to be selected in the first two rounds. Royster is a fine player, but isn't in that class. If he projects as a 3rd or 4th round pick, is that enough for him to make the leap?

As for Bowman, he's a guy with a tough background who could be enticed by NFL money, but his play has severely declined this season. Coming into 2009, he seemed to be a sure-fire first or second round draft pick, and most of us had assumed that he'd be elsewhere in 2010. Legal troubles hampered him in the off-season and a groin injury slowed him down this fall. He still looks a few steps slower than in 2008, and was actually a weak link in the defense against Northwestern and Ohio State. Whether that's because of conditioning and other lingering effects from the injury, nobody outside of Lasch really knows. If he decides to declare for the NFL, he'll have to prove to scouts that he's fully recovered and can stay out of trouble.

They're both coin flips at this point. Royster may want to avoid the inevitable beating he'll endure behind a still-developing offensive line. Bowman may decide to get out before another lower body injury takes away his speed, or he runs into legal trouble again in Happy Valley. Both could easily justify going the Justin King route and trying to get a one-year head start on their second NFL contracts, where the big money really is for non-first rounders.

The Rivalry Is Watching You: Indiana MLB Matt Mayberry v. Iowa

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:27:32 -0000

A huge thanks to Jason from Chicago for the tip to watch Mayberry.

I hope you enjoy this week's "Watching You," one week late but still relevant. When you think of Big Ten linebackers, Sean Lee, Bryan Rolle, Navorro Bowman, Pat Angerer, and Greg Jones instantly come to mind. Apparently MLB Matt Mayberry of Indiana has flown under the radar, so I wanted to watch him against the power running of Iowa on October 31. How would he react to the Hawkeye's physicality? Was he an oasis of talent in the bare bones of Indiana's LB / secondary corps?

First Quarter

Indiana scored first, taking a 7-0 lead. Keep this in mind.

The Hoosiers are running a stilted 4-3, leaving 7 in the box and hoping to slow Wegher early. MM is at his usual MLB spot. There is little blitzing early because the Hawkeye's are slowly power rushing down the field. For whatever reason, the Hawkeyes are running away from MM, but when they do, he makes a play. A simple off tackle run throws 280 lb Riley Reiff into MM's way - Mayberry smacks him aside and stuffs the play for a short gain. On a Stanzi dropback, MM gets an excellent bump on the receiver and drops smoothly back into coverage. Eventually the defense stiffens and Murray misses a 40 yarder.

Second possession and MM begins to lobby for an All-Big 10 spot. After standing up the 210 Wegher on first down for no gain, Mayberry picks the perfect time to blitz and picks up a sack. A Stanzi pick ends the possession. The Hoosiers have allowed zero points in the first quarter and have withstood some early smashmouth football.

Second Quarter

A third possession showcases the quickness of MM. He blitzes again, avoids a block with some nifty lateral movement, and gets a QB hurry. I realize that Pat Angerer is higher on NFL boards than Mayberry, but Mayberry is quicker. It bears mention that the IU defensive line is pressuring Stanzi too, allowing MM to roam around freely. Punt time.

Iowa, sensing they are being beat up at the LOS, switches to zone read runs. This leads to...nothing much more. MM has six tackles by now and the off-tackle runs have been corralled. It takes until the third quarter for any semblance of a Hawkeye run game to show up. Towards the end of the quarter, Stanzi throws a couple solid deep balls and Wegher punches it in to make the score 21-7 - MM got manhandled by 280 lb. OL Rafael Eubanks on the touchdown.

We go to the half...6 tackles, one sack, one quarterback hurry, 7 Hawkeye points. I'd also like to point out that Indiana had a cornerback named Donnell Jones. Some halftime entertainment then? Donnell...

Third Quarter

Iowa begins run faking and rolling out on almost every play - the Indiana outside linebackers are biting, but not MM. A second down blitz by Mayberry and he almost gets his second sack. After Stanzi drives the Hawkeyes 40 yards, his first pick of the half ends the drive.

An Indiana punt follows, but another Stanzi pick stops us from viewing MM's progress. At the base of Indiana's success is slowing Wegher - now that he's ineffective, the zone is deeper and harder to throw against.

The crazy apeshit Pick Six makes the score 21-14, followed by the controversial non-touchdown to Turner. 24-14 Hoosiers. Stanzi is sacked at the onset of the third possession of the quarter and then MM get's an interception with an assist from the referee, who screens the Iowa receiver. MM almost has the Holy Defensive Trinity (sack, pick, fumble recovery) and most definitely has good agility.

Fourth Quarter

Avert your eyes, Indiana fans, the fourth quarter from Hell is about to begin. Stanzi connects for a 92 yard touchdown and MM can only watch helplessly as the safety blows coverage badly. Safety went man and everyone else went zone. Damn you. 24-21 Indiana.

Anddd a different safety blew coverage on the next offensive play for the Hawkeyes. Touchdown, 66 yards, 28-24 Iowa.

On Iowa's third possession of the fourth quarter, fatigue and momentum combine to hamstring Mayberry. Wegher runs for 8, 4, 4, 4, 6 yards on five consecutive runs. MM has a bad missed tackle where he simply bounces off the ball carrier and then over pursues lazily on the touchdown while Wegher flies by. 35-24 and we're all set here.

Conclusions, Statistics, Etc.

Stats: 8 tackles (by my count), 1 sack, 1 QB hurry, 1 INT, 1 Blantant Missed Tackle

Yearly stats: 84 tackles, 9 TFL's, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT's

Game Discussion: Played like a man possessed in the first half, standing up blockers and ball carriers while running sideline to sideline. Along with the strong defensive line, was a key to stuffing Wegher early. Got tired in the fourth quarter after the Indiana secondary fell apart and squashed momentum.

Mayberry Discussion: CBS has him listed in the Top 25 of senior LB's in the nation and I won't argue. 6'2'' and 237 pounds will get you a look at the NFL, but so will a mature and physical approach to playing football, which MM has. His agility is excellent and he doesn't rely on hand fighting with offensive lineman, choosing instead to swim move or body up to them. Loves hitting, just like Angerer, Jones, and Lee Campbell.

Making Big Plays?

BSD — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:27 -0000

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

about 1 month ago: Penn State head coach Joe Paterno, right, frowns as he looks at assistant coaches Larry Johnson, center, and Tom Bradley, left, during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Ohio State in State College, Pa., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009. Ohio State won 24-7(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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We just couldn't make some big plays. -Joe Paterno

When I heard Joe Paterno mutter those words in his post game press conference, I just shook my head. What kind of big play were you hoping for, Joe? Were you hoping Evan Royster could run over right guard for four yards instead of two? Were you hoping tight end Mickey Shuler was going to turn that five yard pass into a seventy yard touchdown? Please don't tell me you were hoping the special teams were going to bail you out sooner or later. You can't return fair catches for touchdowns, you know.

It's not hard to figure out what went wrong on Saturday. Ohio State kept pinning the Penn State offense deep. The special teams couldn't buy them any room. Joe didn't want to take chances, so he played it safe by running right into the teeth of the Buckeye defensive line. Then they kept giving Ohio State the ball at midfield which allowed them to take some chances on offense. Once the Buckeyes got the lead, they shoved the dagger home. Or arm-punted it home. Whatever. Joe Paterno got suckered into playing Tressel Ball, and he lost again.

I felt bad for the players as the boos rained down in the fourth quarter. It's important that they know those boos were not intended for them. Though the players made their share of mistakes, they just ran the plays that were called. It's not their fault that the play calling did not put them in a position to succeed.

Nobody should pin this loss on Daryll Clark. He played well considering his offensive line stood about as stiff as a house of cards in a hurricane. He made some ill-advised throws late in the game, but you could tell he was pressing and trying to make something happen. You can't blame him for that.

Truthfully, the interception was the fault of Andrew Quarless for not paying attention and having his hands up. The ball went right past him to the defender. Quarless had an absolutely terrible game. His blocking was as bad as I've ever seen it. In his defense, there were times he was asked to block a defensive lineman all by himself. That's a mismatch, but truth be told, if you want to play in the NFL, you need to make those blocks, son. And maybe if you catch the ball once in a while that would be good too.

The offensive line is what it is: A decent left tackle, a center that is probably better suited to play guard, and three inexperienced guys out there hoping they don't screw up. I'm sure Ako Poti was a very fine junior college player, but he's clearly not Big Ten material. The right tackle position has been a disappointment all season no matter who plays there. At left guard, Johnnie Troutman was so bad he got pulled in the second half. In fairness to him, he obviously injured his leg somehow in the first half. Matt Stankiewitch wasn't much better, but he's just a redshirt sophomore so I'm not writing him off yet. Next year everyone returns except Poti, McCormack, and Landolt. I have confidence they'll get better, and if not there are some pretty good freshman who should push them. This was just a year where rebuilding the offensive line hurt us, and I think we knew it would going into the season.

The defense played pretty well considering the offense went three-and-out seven times and gave Ohio State a short field to work with all night. But they were far from perfect.

Based on the last two games, Navorro Bowman is nowhere near ready for the NFL. Maybe his leg is bothering him or something and we don't know about it, but all night long he looked slow and his tackling form was terrible. Terrelle Pryor made him look ridiculous on his touchdown run. And I noticed it looked like Bowman was struggling to catch his breath just midway through the first quarter. Remember his 90 yard fumble return against Eastern Illinois where he ran out of gas with 30 yards to go? And remember how Paterno called him out a few weeks ago for lousy conditioning? It showed on Saturday night. Bowman better start getting his butt out of bed at 5 AM and running steps if he wants to play in the league.

It's been pretty obvious to me all year that the weakness of this defense is the safeties. Ohio State was the first team capable of making them pay for it. It was obvious they were picking on Astorino all afternoon. It's been known for some time that Astorino has been nursing a shoulder injury of some kind. He's not his aggressive self and it's obvious he's avoiding contact. Nick Sukay is doing an okay job at the other safety spot, but he doesn't have the athletic ability to make up for a cornerback that blows his coverage. I'm completely disappointed that Gerald Hodges hasn't seen more playing time this year. All we heard about all spring and summer long was how great he looked in practice. Well, why couldn't he see a few series when a game actually meant something? Instead they moved him to linebacker as a knee jerk reaction to Sean Lee getting injured. Way to waste his redshirt.

It sounds like I'm pretty down on the team right now, but really I'm not. I predicted 10-2 with an outside chance at 11-1 or 12-0. We all knew it was going to be a tough year to go undefeated when you have no experience in the offensive line, wide receiver, and secondary. This was a rebuilding year, so to win ten games and go to a New Years Day bowl game should make us feel pretty good about the direction of the program. It sure beats the four loss seasons of 2006 and 2007. And it sure as Hell beats the unmitigated disasters we saw in the early part of this decade. So this loss hurts right now, but we will rise again. Look out for this team down the road.

I'm not going to break down the offense and defense this week as I usually do. I've said everything I want to say right here. And besides, it's my blog and I'll cry if I want to.

And Here Come The Pretzels

Run Up The Score — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:42:59 -0000

On yesterday's ESPN GameDay show, Chris Fowler and the crew passed along information that Penn State coaches indicated their offensive playbook would be uncharacteristically open against Ohio State. The coaching staff trusted the improved offensive line, and especially trusted Daryll Clark to win the game for Penn State. If such a strategy was ever in place for the Penn State offense, it was scrapped after their first offensive play of the game as defensive end Cameron Heyward bolted through Dennis Landolt and Evan Royster, defensive tackle Todd Denlinger spun around Johnnie Troutman, and defensive end Thaddeus Gibson hopped over a weak chop attempt by Ako Poti. The result, 2nd and 16, and 59 minutes of puckering.

And shame on you for not fighting through your doubleteam, Doug Worthington!

Sifting through the rubble this morning, and nothing has changed. Yesterday's game was an absolute owning of the home team -- coaches, players, fans, offense, defense, special teams -- from beginning to end. Cameron Heyward is an unblockable monster. No matter which Penn State offensive lineman he lined up against, they were quickly and embarrassingly thrown aside. Daryll Clark was hit and hurried, and again unable to carry the team in those circumstances.

Clark will take some justified heat for this loss. Fair or not, his place in Penn State quarterbacking history will be roughly alongside Wally Richardson's 1995-1996 run -- fondly remembered, but nowhere approaching legendary. Daryll will leave Penn State with a shared Big Ten title, love and respect from a vast majority of the fanbase, and gaudy stats against awful teams. People will be happy to see him when he returns to campus in 5, 10, 20 years. But he won't be a Penn State legend or anything close to it.

I suspect the coaching staff feels embarrassed this morning. There's absolutely zero excuse for the ongoing clusterfrick that is Penn State's special teams unit. If Joe Paterno expects to win games with defense and special teams, it's probably a fine idea to actually have good special teams. Given the athletes on this team, are we supposed to believe that Drew Astorino is our best ~~punt returner~~ designated fair catcher? Penn State's punt team practically handed Ohio State their first touchdown and took the life out of the crowd. And it's clearly not a matter of putting bad athletes on the field for kicking plays -- the players chasing Ray Small down the field on his first punt return are A.J. Wallace, Knowledge Timmons, Josh Hull, Chris Colasanti, Navorro Bowman, Brandon Beachum, and Andrew Quarless. And they were put in a bad position by an awful Jeremy Boone punt.

The playcalling was atrocious. If you don't have enough confidence to throw the ball on 3rd and 5, do us all a favor and kneel on the ball three straight plays and punt. Your defense will get the same amount of rest, and there's no risk at all! Beats the hell out of running the same tired crap right at Ohio State's strengths, or letting your quarterback get battered play after play.

Tom Bradley and the defense don't get a pass for this either -- they let the team down repeatedly on some crucial third downs. D'anton Lynn blew a coverage that led to DeVier Posey's long touchdown. On Pryor's rushing touchdown, Bowman had him dead in the backfield and was shaken off. They had their chances to turn the game around, or even just get off the damned field, and failed.

Finally, man up and give credit to Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State. This can't be stressed enough: they dominated every single aspect of the game. As for Penn State, they had their two toughest opponents at home and blew it. While 10-2 is still within reach and sounds great, this season has already been cast upon the disappointment heap. Penn State will end up in some middle-tier bowl with a cheesy sponsor. Don't worry. We'll pretend to care about it.