SB Nation - Allen Bailey

Conversation with Tomahawk Nation

DrB — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:58:51 -0000

3 months ago: Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder throws a fourth-quarter pass during an NCAA college football game against Jacksonville State, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida state won 19-9. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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In this Q&A we have FSUncensored of Tomahawk Nation as our guest blogger. Our thanks go out to him for helping us get exposure for the new site. He's always been our greatest supporter. Below you'll find answers on why FSU has struggled this year, the Chest/Fisher escapade, and why Jenn Sterger had a brain fart and removed her breast implants, destroying erections everywhere. You can find our answers to their questions here.

FSU has been able to keep defenses fairly honest with their rushing game. I have noticed a lot of big plays/highlights coming off of play action and have heard the gusy at Tomahawk talk about even running a few screens off of PA. How important is this to their offense and how important is it for the Seminoles to have some success running the football to set these types of plays up?

As you noted in your excellent preview of our offense, Fisher will take what an opposing defense gives them. A lot of teams elect to play soft 2 or 3 against the 'Nole's offense, because they are scared of FSU's 4 very capable wideouts. In those situations, Fisher will run the ball on them, and when he expects them to creep up from the soft alignments, he will do the PA stuff. FSU hasn't abandoned the run all year, as he's called 28, 49, 22, 28, 28, 23, and 33 run plays in their 7 D1 games. FSU has run the ball well in most games, and has really run it well of late, (GTech: 28 for 193), UNC: 23 for 53 (included is a -14 yard reverse though, which obviously counts.) We used the run game early to keep them honest later., and NC State: 33 for 277. Note that I take out sacks when calculating run numbers, because it's really a failed pass play.

Also, wouldn't you think that Fishers ability to stay patient and take what the defense gives you/play to strong suits combined with FSU's offensive talent make Clemson's degense lose some aggression?

Yes. I do think Clemson should play off and hit FSU's wideouts. The only things that has stopped FSU this year are 1) Ponder's MCL injury in the USF & BC games, and receiver fumbles (also BC and USF). Fisher doesn't get over-anxious with his playcalling and neither does Ponder. That's remarkable to me because FSU's defense is so shitty that they are often behind. Sometimes the wideouts have pressed, however, trying to take a simple hitch and make something out of it that simply is not there. Wideouts have had 8 fumbles lost, though none in the last two games if my memory serves. However, when FSU holds onto the ball, it can be pretty frustrating for the opposing defense, and then I guess the ball is back in Kevin's court. Will he risk FSU going downfield and screening Clemson to death?

Who has had the most success defending your offense? Why?

USF and BC. I fashioned this handy chart for you:

Opponent Miami BYU USF BC Ga Tech UNC N

Opponent Miami BYU USF BC GT NC NCSU

Plays 71 77 64 71 66 65 73

Yards per play allowed 5.7 6.6 4.5 6.8 8.2 6.7 7.6

Rushes 28 49 22 28 28 23 33

Yards/rush allowed 4.5 6.4 2.8 2.9 6.9 2.3 8.4

Passing Plays 43 28 42 43 38 42 40

Yards pass/allowed 6.4 7.1 5.4 7.7 9.1 9.2 6.9

5.7 yards per play (400 yard pace) against everyone except USF. 6.6 (460 yard pace @ 70 plays) against 4 teams, and a 530 yard yard pace in the last two. So what happened against USF (7-17 home loss)?

First, Ponder had an MCL sprain and was kinda hobbling around. Second, receiver fumbles. Third, when the offense doesn't convert on the goal line, the defense should get you the ball back in realistic field position. That did not happen, as USF had a 99 yard drive for TD on the ensuing possession. So FSU had 1st half drives of 79, 43, and 39 yards, and 200 yards total in the 1st half, with no points. Fourth, Jason Pierre-Paul. He's the best player we've faced all year (Allen Bailey of Miami was close). Mel Kiper moved the relatively unknown Juco product up to 10th on his big board, and the kid is only a junior. He was unblockable and it was the best defensive performance I've seen against the 'Noles since the early decade Miami teams picked on Chris Rix and co. USF rushed 4 and got there. FSU came in overconfident and then sleptwalked thorough the game. This was USF's biggest game in their history and the intensity levels were not comparable. They didn't blitz much and played a lot of cover-2.

Essentially, USF played the perfect game of their lives on defense.

I dont understand how Mickey's defense can be as BAD as it is. Its the worst I've ever heard of FSU having. What is the major malfunction?

Ok, check out how bad they are: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/11/2/1110686/florida-states-defense-the-cure 98th in the country is just not acceptable. So what has happened? They are too small. Mickey is still playing a bunch of cover-1 and cover-0, and they've never been a good zone team. The defensive ends are coached by a former wide receiver who never coached or played defense before Bowden hired him to replace the universally highly regarded Jim Gladden (the man behind the terrors off the edge for many years). Amato is more concerned with screwing with Jimbo Fisher than he is coaching the linebackers. He implemented the freedom system which just tells the backers to go make plays. As you might expect, a system which encourages FSU's guys to be more undisciplined has failed miserably. Nobody plays with anything even resembling decent technique. Fundamentals are completely absent. Linebackers don't take good angles. Other teams have figured out FSU's signals (my opinion). Andrews hasn't wanted to coach since his son's suicide (and who can blame him) and he didn't want the aforementioned coaches! Coaches who don't want to coach, refusing to adapt, and players who don't buy into the garbage the lame duck coaches are selling, and you get FSU's defense.

I will say that they do play really hard, however, which is scary.

Why does K. Mangum start? He's absolutely awful, and a senior? I think a monkey can do better in pass coverage.

I think it's an evil plan between Amato and Bowden to make Jimbo crack and Kill someone, thus costing himself the shot at the job. Mangum knows some of the assignments, which is better than some others can say, but he is definitvely the worst starter at FSU since 1980, and it is not even remotely close. I know for a fact that the offensive coaches tried to repeatedly embarrass him in fall camp to have Mickey bench him and he just wouldn't. Andrews is a great man but he is in love with Senority.

Whats the story at Defensive End with Jody Allen? They have horrible discipline and they never hold their containment. These guys would be 3rd stringers here.

Ah yes, Allen, our defensive ends coach who was selected to replace possibly the best ends coach in the game (Gladden). The players think he is a racist. He won't take advice from Gladden, who graciously offers it if asked. Allen never played defense at any significant level. His practice antics make everyone uncomfortable. Everette Brown ended up teaching our defensive ends last season

What adjustment has Andrew's made schematically to make up for these issues? What can be done when you suck at pretty much every position, aside from one or two good players?

Um, does blitzing everyone into the same gap count? No? That doesn't work? Oh. Hmm. They tried to play some more cover 2 and cover 3 and that was a colossal failure. The defense is really too small to play anything that doesn't involve 8 men in the box, which creates somewhat predictable coverages. The frustrating thing is that while I have been screaming for some adjustments in the past, there are few schematic adjustments I feel this staff can make because they can't or won't teach it. They need to bench Mangum and the upperclassmen who have zero shot to play next season (though some do).

Chuck Amato was once a good recruiter, once a pretty good position coach, but I dont understand what has failed for him since being back at FSU, any ideas what happened to him?

It's all about Chuck's Ego

.

He bounces around practice, doing everything but his job. He gets into multiple confrontations with other coaches (some physical). As noted above, the freedom system destroyed the work done by Steele, and I thought Steele had our backers taking good pursuit angles. Amato doesn't have these guys keying anything and they definitely don't take good angles. Plus, like Allen, I think the players know he's toast.

I heard the other day that Jenn Sterger had a breast reduction......GOD WHY?

I always thought Sterger was a bigger deal to other schools than she was to FSU. But I hope she hasn't lost that great set! Ok, upon some investigation:

But other research says different:

Actually the article about Sterger's breast implant removal is in the Dec 2009 Cosmo magazine. I dont wanna know how Figurefour found that out. Someone clearly screwed up, I thought Cosmo was supposed to have "how to make him go crazy in bed", not "how to make him go limp by removing two perfectly constructed breasts."

ACC Blogger's Roundtable- Week

FSUncensored — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:45:14 -0000

This week's round table is hosted by FromTheRumbleSeat.com, our friends from GTech. FSU44 provides our answers!

1. Alright fellas, this is your turn to apologize to the Boston College Eagles who went to Hell and back and have now arrived as the 3rd team for the ACC (and only team in the Atlantic) to be bowl eligible. You know you were snickering in the preseason. Also, give a high five to Mark Herzlich for finishing his last treatment of chemo.

We're sorry. The Eagles play great defense and have also done a nice job avoiding GTech and Miami in the Coastal. Nice job Mark!

2. An Orange Bowl victory over a Boise/ TCU or an Orange Bowl victory over a Penn State/ Cincy team - which means more for the conference? Is there even a difference?

Not a big difference, but if the ACC champ does beat Boise/TCU, the media will just use that as proof that the non-BCS team was overrated. So, beating No. 1 in the Big East or No. 1/2 in the Big Ten is probably better.

3. Enough with the CJ Spillers, the Christian Ponders, and the Jacory Harrises. We wanna talk defense. Who is the defensive POTY thus far in the ACC?

DeAndre McDaniel, Derrick Morgan, Allen Bailey, in that order.

4. Recently, Bird compared the Atlantic to the Big 12 North.Is this a fair comparison? The Coastal is currently 8-2 against the Atlantic. There are still 8 interdivision games left. Can the Atlantic redeem itself this season?

No, the Atlantic won't redeem itself, but several of the Atlantic's losses, e.g. FSU to Miami and Clemson to GT, could have easily gone the other way. The gap at the top of each Conference (if you can find the top of the Atlantic) probably isn't as great as the results indicate.

5. Tailgating is essential to all things football. In Atlanta, the tailgating game of choice is cornhole. What is your game of choice to pass the time?

Beirut, aka Beer Pong. In order to deal with FSU's "defense," some of us in Tallahassee have switched out the beer for liquor.

6. Let's cut to the chase. There are two kinds of people: sheep and sharks. Sharks are winners and they don't look back 'cause they don't have necks. Necks are for sheep. Is your team full of sharks or is your team full of sheep?

FSU has sharks on offense, and on defense, a mixture of Sharks who were never taught how to swim properly and Sheep who have no idea they are Baaaing all over the field.

7. Create a cocktail in the spirit of your school and explain it to us. Non-edible ingredients are allowed and encouraged.

In a chilled shotglass, pour half Goldschlager every time the offense scores a touchdown-- Every time the defense allows a touchdown, fill the other half with Aftershock. Drink and repeat, and pray that you are 1) still standing by the end of the game, and b) that your last shot is only half full.

there will be none of this on saturday

lt.winslow — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:15:24 -0000

as sean spence is officially out for wake forrest.

in news that doesn't suck, ~~Shrek~~ ~~Blulk~~ allen bailey is returning to DE... where he rightfully belongs.

those of you who ~~aren't retarded dickheads~~ ~~actually pay attention~~ have been following the saga of Gigantor, are already well aware that #57 at DE is the stuff that gives little tiny baby infant jesus a bulge in his huggies.

so we got that going for us.

The State of Oklahoma: OU Travels to Miami

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Steve Helber - AP

Jacory Harris would like to forget last Saturday.

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I've been thinking lately that people should start competitions on accurately predicting the Top 25 before the season, similar to how we do NCAA brackets for the March basketball tournament. As last weekend showed, nobody really knows anything. Texas, Florida, and Alabama cruised, but everyone under them went for a wild ride on a wooden raft. Some survived that ride, and others, well, went under. We'll see if they resurface anytime soon.

One of the teams that went down was the Miami Hurricanes, riding high after two impressive wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. They were #9 Saturday morning, with some arguing they had the best resume through the first three weeks. By Sunday, they had plummeted to #21 in the Coaches Poll and #17 in the AP. Unlike other ranked teams, they did not lose to an unranked foe, with Virginia Tech coming into the game at #11. However, nobody expected the whipping the Hokies gave them, scoring the first 21 points and ultimately finishing with a 24-point victory. While it is possible for Miami to win the rest of their games, the margin by which they lost probably cost them any chance at a national title. Ouch.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, moved right on up the polls... by resting. They probably watched the carnage on TV and stuck their middle fingers out at all the analysts who made fun of them for falling against BYU. Make no mistake, the Sooners are now very much alive, and winning this weekend at Coral Gables may vault them back into the Top 5 if teams ahead of them falter again. The stakes this game are still high, and may even be higher (arguably) than if both teams came in undefeated. If Oklahoma loses one more, they are done as national title contenders. If Miami drops this one at home, they more or less fall off the radar. With the Horns off this week, this would be a good game on which to focus your attention.

Last Week's Fun

While Oklahoma was chilling, Miami was busy crapping the bed against Virginia Tech. I won't spend much time talking about the game; needless to say, despite their assurances to the contrary, the 'Canes were NOT ready for the weather and let turnovers kill them. In fact, the folks over at Gobbler Country seem to think the rain was the player of the game, so to speak. Of course, it didn't help that the Hokies dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and hammered Miami with Ryan Williams. Oh, and they blocked a punt for a TD, too.

To get an idea what Pouring Rain + Good Pressure does to an offense not prepared for it, let's take a brief look at Miami's high and mighty offense. Before this game, the Hurricanes averaged 465 yards of total offense at 7.27 yards per play. Jacory Harris averaged 328 yards per game at 11.12 yards per attempt, completed 69.5% of his passes including a 20-25 performance against Georgia Tech, and threw for 5 touchdowns to 2 interceptions to earn a passer rating of 184.07. In the pouring rain against V-tech, with his trusty receivers having a bad case of the butterfingers, Harris was an abysmal 9/20 for 150 yards and one interception and a passer rating of 78.4. While Graig Cooper had a decent day running the ball, the 'Canes as a team averaged a terrible 1.74 ypc on the ground after averaging 4.7 against Georgia Tech. Other than their one scoring drive right after halftime, which was the result of a shorter field due to a good kickoff return, Miami was frighteningly bad on offense, gaining an average of 3.5 yards per play as a whole.

Defensively, Miami wasn't that much better. Tyrod Taylor did nothing in the passing game save a 48-yard touchdown, but there was no need for him to; the Hokies ran the ball on Miami, and then ran it again. They piled up 272 yards on 55 carries, and Miami couldn't get a whiff of Ryan Williams at the line of scrimmage and then made things worse by tackling poorly at the second level. It was a sharp difference from their performance against Georgia Tech.

It is difficult to say how much we can take from this. Obviously, everyone has their bad games, and the conditions of the game were not normal. However, I'm not sure how much you can blame getting manhandled at the line of scrimmage on the pouring rain. Maybe it made their jerseys heavier? In any case, Jacory Harris was not good but he didn't get any sort of help from his O-line or his receivers. A very painful day for the 'Canes.

Oklahoma and Miami Key Matchups

And with that, we move on to this week's game, which probably isn't looking nearly as good for Miami as it did a week ago. I'll briefly discuss a few key matchups:

Oklahoma's D-line vs. Miami's O-line

I'll be blunt: If Miami's offensive line plays anything like they did against Virginia Tech, Oklahoma is going to beat them and probably beat them badly. Even given better conditions that will help the passing game, Jacory Harris is going to have a steady diet of Gerald McCoy, Auston English, and Jeremy Beal if that happens again. V-Tech has a good defense, but I would put OU's defensive line over theirs. If OU quickly dominates in this area, Graig Cooper is going to have a rough day and Harris will have an even rougher day.

This unit was identified in the preseason as the weak link to the offense, lacking both experience and depth. Before Saturday, optimism reigned. After Saturday, pessimism "rained" (okay, bad joke). While Virginia Tech only got two sacks, they were on Harris all game. Jake Fox, the senior at left tackle, will have to play well against Oklahoma, and their new guards will have to hold their own against the monster that is Gerald McCoy. Cooper is one of their best players and they have to give him a chance to succeed this week.

Miami's D-line against Oklahoma's O-line

On the flip side, Oklahoma still has questions on their offensive line. They have eliminated some of the mistakes we saw against BYU and changed personnel a bit to try to find a good mix of players. Brody Eldridge, the best center in OU history, moved back to TE while Ben Habern took his spot. Cory Brandon lost his starting job at right tackle with Jarvis Jones sliding over from right guard. To replace Jones at RG, freshman Tyler Evans got the nod. This unit looks improved, but it's hard to judge much from victories over Idaho State and Tulsa. If Miami wants any hope at success, they need to test this line as BYU did.

Miami didn't get any sacks against Virginia Tech, but I don't look too much into that because Taylor only threw nine times. The Hurricanes have some speedy pass rushers that will need to be ready, because Oklahoma will most definitely throw more than that with Bradford or Landry. Still, Oklahoma is not deficient at running the football, and no doubt they saw Virginia Tech's success on the ground against this defense. Miami's defensive line was supposed to be a great strength of this team, and it has not quite lived up to that hype, although to be fair, a couple guys were out against V-Tech. Guys like Allen Bailey and Eric Moncur will need to have big games, among others. Miami has the requisite speed to pass rush; the issue will be in the middle, with an undersized guy in Bailey and a relative disappointment in Marcus Forston, a 2008 Freshman All-American. Forston was not active against V-Tech due to injury, but he did not produce as much as expected the first two games. I am not sure if he will be available against Oklahoma. If not, it doesn't help the situation.

Oklahoma will not run with the same style as Ryan Williams and the Hokies, but with Chris Brown and Demarco Murray, they are capable of doing damage in their own way. Not only that, Oklahoma possesses a much more dangerous passing game, so this line needs to make Landry Jones look like a freshman again or otherwise make Sam Bradford wish he stayed on the bench if he indeed comes back.

Miami's receivers vs. Oklahoma's secondary

Miami's receivers just seem to ooze talent and potential. This unit has speed, size, and big-play capability. Let's take a look at the main guys:

Travis Benjamin: Texas fans, meet Miami's version of D.J. Monroe, except his touches come primarily through the passing game. He stands at 5'10 and weighs a smallish 170 pounds, but boy, he can move it, even rumored to run a sub-4.3 forty. Whether or not you believe that is true, the point is taken: He's got speed and lots of it. The problem, however, is consistency; he was nowhere to be found against Virginia Tech, having zero catches including a drop. He also has not had too much success in the return game. The conditions will be better for him this Saturday, so Miami needs to do a better job finding ways to get the ball in his hands in space.

Aldarius Johnson: Johnson was supposed to be their stud receiver this season and he looks the part, listed as 6'3, 215 pounds and drawing comparisons to some guy named Andre Johnson. Unfortunately, [he pulled his groin against FSU and has been inactive], so right now, he's been a big disappointment, whether or not it's actually his fault. However, if it's time for a breakout game, now is the time to do it.

LaRon Byrd: Another big target who can run downfield, Byrd stands at 6'4 and weighs 215 pounds. He was held without a reception against the Seminoles but he had a big day against Georgia Tech, catching five balls for 83 yards and a score. He had 4 of Harris' 9 completions on Saturday.

Leonard Hankerson: Wait, are these receivers just all the same guy? It looks like it, as Hankerson is also listed at 215 pounds and stands at 6'3. Hankerson brings a lot of experience with him relative to the other receivers, and he is currently leading the team in receiving yards. His ceiling is not as high as the younger guys, but he's dangerous in his own right and provides a bit more consistency.

Dedrick Epps (Tight End): Tired of 6'3-6'4, 215 pounders? Well, here's a 6'4, 250-pound tight end. Epps is a quality player who can both block and catch the ball. He suffered an ACL injury before last year's bowl game and made it back for this season, albeit slightly slowed, but he's had decent production. Considering Oklahoma's troubles against BYU's tight ends, Epps will be a good target to look for.

Verdict: Oklahoma has not seen anything near this receiving corps. Oklahoma's secondary has played well after the BYU game, but even an offensively competent Tulsa has nothing like this. If Oklahoma's defensive line can be held in check, look for big plays from this group against Oklahoma's new safeties and average corners.

Other things to watch for

-Linebacker Sean Spence will need to have a strong game and do a good job of covering and tackling in space for Miami. V-Tech was way too successful on the ground after they cleared the line.

-Oklahoma is hoping that Brandon Caleb continues to step up, but keep an eye on the limited weaponry the Sooners have in the passing game. Miami doesn't have a great secondary, but Oklahoma's receivers aren't all that scary at the moment.

-Special teams. Miami can do some damage in the return game, though they might want to avoid getting another punt blocked.

-Miami has a fast defense, but perhaps an overly aggressive defense. Virginia Tech had success using misdirection plays, so look for OU to do the same.

-And of course, keep an eye on Sam Bradford. If he plays, that will be a big boost for the Sooners, even though Jones has played admirably in his place. Nonetheless, it will be a bit much to expect Bradford to return to form his very first game.

Useless Prediction

Before Miami got walloped by Virginia Tech, I was thinking that the Sooners might be in trouble. Now that Miami's O-line was exposed as the weak link it was thought to be in the beginning of the season, I'm not so sure. The game is at Coral Gables, which helps Miami a lot, but while I can excuse a poor passing day on the rain, I really can't excuse poor O-line play the same way. I like Miami's big receivers against Oklahoma's secondary, but that won't matter much if Jacory Harris can't get a clean look downfield. Harris, at the least, is a somewhat mobile quarterback, but he's not (pre-injury) Robert Griffin or anything.

In addition, the way Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage on offense is concerning. Oklahoma does not have an elite offensive line, but if they have any sort of success on the ground, their more balanced offense can potentially do much more damage than the Hokies did. If Sam Bradford is back, he will still make use of Oklahoma's relatively average group of receivers and move on down the field.

Prediction time: I expect Miami's offensive and defensive lines to play much better, but their O-line will still not be good enough to keep Oklahoma's D-line out of the backfield on crucial plays. Due to this, Oklahoma will generate some turnovers, and they will have enough success running the football to keep the heat off of Bradford (assuming he plays) and put points on the board. Miami will have a few big plays to keep pace, but ultimately, Oklahoma will wear them down. Oklahoma wins a big road game, 31-21.

I obviously would not mind one bit if Miami proves me wrong :).

Poll

Who do you think will win between Oklahoma and Miami?

Oklahoma Sooners

461 votes

Miami Hurricanes

354 votes

815 votes | Poll has closed

For Entertainment Purposes Only- Previewing College Football's 3rd week

FSUncensored — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 04:32:26 -0000

Note: We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead. The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences. Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams. Think of this as your weekend primer!

Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only! Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners. Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200. No odds went against our decisions. Then we went over season win totals. Vegas set the number, we called it over or under! In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Last week we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units. For the season, we sit at 59-46 (56%), +10.02 Units. If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated. We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance. The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100. It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.

While last week's theme was "hangovers, lookaheads, and letdowns", this week is all about getting the right number. Inside, we'll discuss just about every college football game on the slate.

As the season goes on, it's very important to jump on numbers as they are released by vegas. As you will see, there is a ton of movement from Sunday night (when they come out) to gametime. If I grabbed a line on Sunday, I noted it, and posted it in last week's column to alert the true degenerates among us.

This week starts off with an ACC battle. Tonight, Georgia Tech travels to Miami. The Canes have had 10 days to prepare for this game, while GTech has had only 7. Tech's defense didn't impress against Clemson, and their offense seemed a bit out of synch. The real key to this should be Miami's freakish defensive tackle pair in Marcus Forston and Allen Bailey. This opened at GT @ Mia -3 and that's where we popped it. It currently sits at -5.5

Then Friday we have a wacky WAC battle. I snagged Fresno State at +12 hosting Boise because the number seemed high. The line has since been bet down to -7.5, and 7 in some places. I really don't have much opinion on these teams, other than to say that Boise is probably getting a bit too much credit for dismantling an Oregon team with 4 new offensive line starters. With that said, I am coming back and grabbing the Boise -7 and trying for a middle.

Some asked me to order the games by start time instead of rotation # (vegas reference number). You guys make the call, so here we go:

NOON

A bad Ball State team travels to face Army. Huah! I grabbed the -6.5 points with our nation's defenders, and then later in the week played Ball State +8. Trying for the middle.
Boston College travels to Clemson. I don't believe in BC and as you know, I think Clemson is quite possibly the ACC's best team. This line opened at -7 and that's where I bet it (fake wager, of course ;). It's now available at -6.5 pretty much everywhere. I also like Under 45 as Clemson has an elite level defense.
Joe-Public Alert! I'm on the Cal bandwagon and am not a believer in Minnesota. A friend tipped me that Cal will be arriving Thursday, to adjust for the timezone difference after having a scare last year at Maryland. I grabbed Cal -13.5 Sunday night, and I'll stick with that.
Duke @ Kansas. Everyone loves Kansas here, so be careful if you bet the Jayhawks. Personally, I'll be on Duke if the line hits 24. Otherwise, this is a pass. I'll update it in the comment section.
The East Carolina Pirates travel to face the North Carolina Tarheels. UNC has some injury issues and while I don't really buy this ECU team, I suspect UNC could be looking ahead to GTech next week. The plays are ECU +7.5 and Under 42.
Eastern Michigan travels to play Michigan. The Wolverines are laying 24. I'm waiting for 24.5 and will probably play EMU.
In a rivalry where one team clearly wants it more than their opponent, Louisville is at Kentucky. I feel Kentucky is slightly overrated and will gladly take Louisville +14.5. Also, UK has UF next weekend, so there is the possible lookahead angle as well, though not a big one.
Purdue is fresh off their west coast trip and are hosting a decent Northern Illinois club. NIU is currently getting 13, which isn't enough against a Purdue team that may be surprising some folks, but if this hits +14, I am on NIU. INJURY Note: NIU returns their leading tackler and excellent safety in this game. He missed the first 2.
Ohio State, fresh off their poorly coached choke job loss to USC has to travel to Cleveland and play a very game Toledo team. This came out at +22.5, but I missed it, and grabbed the Rockets at +21.
Snoozefest: Temple @ Penn State. Temple is slightly better than horrible, and I am waiting until they hit +32 to take the Owls. Sorry for the lack of analysis here.

Now on to the 3:30 games. Okay Degenerates, run down to the nearest Winn-Dixie to grab $500 worth of pre-paid western union cards and call Costa Rica We have games to hit.

I like Iowa -5 hosting an Arizona team coming cross country. Some trepidation here because Iowa is off a rivalry game, but ultimately I think Zona misses some of their graduates more than they have shown.
Akron is favored by 4 over Indiana. Most will balk at this and take the Big10 team, but Indiana couldn't win the Mac, conference USA, or even the Sun Belt. Evaluate the players and the coaches, not the names on the jersey, and take Akron -4.
I don't like this Michigan State team and Notre Dame at home seems like a good bet laying the -10.
Nebraska travels to face Virginia Tech in what should be a great battle. I grabbed VTech -2.5 Sunday night, and yesterday played Nebraska +5. I don't know what happens here, other than to say I really like what Nebraska does on offense, and hope VTech wins by 3 or 4.
I'm pasing on Tenn @ Florida, and I'd advise you to do the same. If this hits +31.5 or more, I will probably take Tennessee, but this spread is a bit crazy.
Tulsa travels to face Oklahoma. Interesting test for OU. Last week they waxed a terrible Idaho State team, but everyone could do that. This means a lot to Tulsa. Did you know that Tulsa has the smallest undergrad enrollment of any D1 school? I grabbed Oklahoma at -14 on Sunday expecting a big move, and now will play Tulsa +17.5 hoping for a nice middle opportunity.
This one I am proud of, and I got a bit lucky. Washington is better than people think, and when I saw that USC was -22.5 in Washington, I had to snag the Huskies +22.5 Now we learn that Barkley is out. USC could go down here, but even if they don't, UW should give them a game. USC has all kinds of motivational and attrition factors working against them right now. NOTE: if this gets to USC -17, I will play the Trojans and try for the middle. Remember, secure profits and limit exposure.
While I accurately predicted the movement of some lines, I missed on some others. Typically, you shouldn't take a game just for speculative line movement purposes. I did so here, taking Utah +5 @ Oregon, thinking that the game would get bet down to +3 or +2 and I'd have a middle opportunity. That hasn't happened. So to counteract my initial outlay, I am betting Oregon -5 twice, essentially leaving me with one Oregon -5 wager, and paying a higher premium than I'd prefer for some less than perfect prognostication.
Virginia is terrible, and if Southern Miss runs the table they will be in the BCS. Golden Eagles -15.5 is the play.
I snagged Wyoming @ Colorado -7 Sunday night. Not feeling this one so much now but am gonna ride it out.

7Pm Conte$t$ and beyond!

Everyone loves Cincinnati this weekend at Oregon State. I like the beavers +1 because of the travel aspect, their NFL caliber QB, and HC Mike RIley's ability to get his defense going. This is a can't-miss game for football fans. DVR this game.
San Diego State shouldn't be laying points to anyone on a long road trip. Gimme Idaho +3.5
Sunday Night Gem: Nevada -1 over Colorado State. It's now at -3 or -4, but I'll stick with the -1.
Buffalo has to travel to Florida to face UCF? Call me a square but gimme UCF -4.
South Carolina is hosting FAU. I like FAU a lot, but won't play them unless I can find +21.5 (okay, I might go for +21).
As much as I hate trusting my money with Dave Wandstedt, I'll lay the -7 with the Panthers over Navy.
Oklahoma State will be motivated to blow Rice out, but Rice +32.5 is a bit steep for them, so the Owls it is.
Fresh off their near upset win over Missouri, Bowling Green should have a hangover effect. They get the deliverance treatment at the hands of Marshall +3.
FSU @ BYU. I took FSU +7.5 and feel confident here. Rarely do I bet on FSU, and often go against them because I think they are overrated due to talent and name. Many of our readers don't like that but this column is about objective predictions. People think vegas wants to balance the action on both sides of the ledger, but This isn't actually true. In a perfect world, it would be, but key numbers distort this notion. Vegas routinely takes positions, particularly on big games. Why would they not move USC to -7.5 last week? Because they felt more comfortable with square USC money than sharp OSU $. Vegas is taking a position. They'd rather hold a hugely disproportional amount of BYU money at -7 than to be stuck with FSU money at +10 (from professionals). I happen to think they believe BYU is very good, but FSU is much better than the public thinks (rather than FSU being bad and BYU being overrated). But they are definitely saying one team is better than the public thinks, or one team is worse than the public thinks, or maybe some combination of both. Typically top 7 teams are favored by 2 TD's or more against an unranked foe. Heck, unranked Tennessee was giving 10 points to UCLA last weekend. This line is a judgement on both programs, and it's a positive for FSU.
LSU -27 over Louisiana Lafayette. Last week I called for Lafayette to beat Kansas State outright. This week they get pasted by the Tigers.
Mississippi State +8 @ Vanderbilt. I don't really know why I took this Sunday night. I can't read my notes in the margin. Both are just bad SEC teams. Oh, and Vanderbilt just got racked by injuries and Miss St. gets some kids back from suspension. I'm not sure either team will score 8 points.
I hate to do it, but SMU shouldn't be laying a TD on the road. Washington State +7, even without any cornerbacks or decent players. Praying for the push.
Snagged Texas A&M -17 Sunday night, but hoping to see Utah State get to -21 so I can try for the middle.
Northwestern -3 @ Syracuse. I went against NW last week and won. This time I am backing the Wildcats. The Cuse are beat up after playing Penn State.
Air Force is at New Mexico +17.5 Air Force is without both starting corners (suspension/ injury), and their top receiver. They'll score, but New Mexico should be able to keep up in the desert.
Iowa State is hungover from thier blowout rivalry loss (sound familiar Nole fans??), and will lose to Kent State. Kent +3.
Miami (OH) +17 and WMich -16? Yeah, I hit it Sunday night but have since bet the other side to essentially get off the game. Hope for a 16 or 17 point victory and the win/push result.
Georgia travels to the Ozarks to face Arkansas. I snagged the Razorbacks at +1.5 Sunday evening, and the line has since moved a bit. I am sticking with the pick and don't think much of UGA's defensive coordinator. I also played Over 53.5
West Virginia travels to Auburn for the Tiger's first real test. Gimme the Mountaineers +7 here. Aub is slightly overrated, as they run so many plays that it gives the perception of offensive greatness. I'm not buying it yet.
Texas is -17 hosting TTech. I don't love the play, but TTech should be a bit down, the game is in Austin, and I look for UT to play a bit better than last year. Revenge game.
UTep rolls into NMSU in what should be an awesome offensive battle. I want NMSU +14, but won't take anything less unless some weird injury news pops.
Kansas State. What a bad team. I called the upset last week of Louisiana Lafayatte beating them, and it happened. But this week UCLA has serious injury issues and I like KState getting +12.5 in LA.
ULM is playing at Arizona State. AZST is at UGA next week. if this lines hits 21 or more, jump ULM. Can you say lookahead?
UNLV -6 hosting Hawaii? Yeah, gimme the boys in Vegas. That's back to back road trips for Hawaii.
Stanford -19 is a very good football team and they should take care of San Jose State.

So, what say you? Ready for this weekend of college football? What games do you like? Which don't you like? I have to admit, this is my favorite weekly column to write for you, the fan. I love Vegas because they don't overreact and alter their perception of a team based on one or two games, or a close win or loss. It's a valuable lesson many fans could learn. Remember to check back in the comment section to see any additional fake wagers being added.

'Nole your Enemy- The Miami Hurricanes' Defense

FSUncensored — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 16:33:09 -0000

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The Miami Hurricanes. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Last week we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense, and UNC's Offense, and Defense.

Last season, Florida State gashed the Hurricane defense, in Miami, for 39 minutes of possession time, 320+ yards rushing, 27 1st downs, and 41 points. It was the first time the 'Noles had scored 40 points in a Non-Duke ACC game in almost three years. To know how good a unit will be this year, we must look at how good they were last year, who they bring back, who they lose, and what new faces could make an impact.

So how good was the Hurricane's defense last season? They were bad. Very bad. Let's look in chart form:

A. MIami was slightly below average by the traditional measure of Total Yards Per Game, which is a terrible statistic greatly distorted by noise and not adjusted for opponent.

B. Miami was dead last in Opponent-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADOE), a great all-encompassing stat developed by Brian Fremeau of FootballOutsiders.com Basically, it looks at what Miami's defense did against their competition, and what all other teams did against those Miami's competition, removes garbage time possessions, and gives an excellent rating of Defensive Performance. Miami was the ACC's worst defense, and finished 65th nationally.

C & D. This is another advanced metric. While AODE is a per-drive measure, S&P+ is an opponent-adjusted (very important) play based measure. Here, Miami finished 73rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. And when you look at the measure for ACC games only, Miami was the 2nd worst ACC defense, ahead of only NC State. It's fairly safe to say that Duke played better defense than Miami in 2008.

So there wasn't much to like about Miami's defense last season. But why were they so bad? Is there reason to believe they will be better this season?

Miami had the ACC's worst run defense.

No matter how you slice it, Miami's run defense was awful last season. Again, this looks best (or worst), in chart form. This is yards allowed per run play (no sacks, since those are pass plays):

That's unlike any Miami defense I've ever seen. In terms of defensive efficiency, their rushing defense was 86th in the nation. 5.0 yards allowed per running play? When looking at Miami's game by game performance, you can see other trends in the running game. Teams which featured some element of quarterback decision making in the run game, be it Georgia Tech's Option, or the Zone-Read of NC State, Florida State, and even Cal, all destroyed Miami. Teams that were more straight ahead did not. Those four teams exposed Miami, rushing for 1264 yards on 175 carries, an average of 7.2 yards per running play. Even removing Georgia Tech, the average is still 6.6 yards allowed per rushing play. Against teams which featured a more pro-style, straight ahead type of rushing attack, their average was 3.1 yards per rushing play. So running the ball while making Miami account for the quarterback as a possible rusher produced double the results that a pro-style attack produced. More on this later. But what of their passing defense?

Miami had the ACC's 3rd worst passing defense.

Miami's pass defense was better than their run defense, but not by much:

53rd Nationally, 3rd worst in the ACC. The ACC featured some seriously good defenses in 2008, but Miami was not one of them. Canes fans will say their pass defense was far better than this, but on a per pass basis, they were 10th in the ACC. It's just that teams ran so much on them they rarely had to pass.

We can talk about how Miami only had 4 interceptions last season, which was dead last in the nation, but it's very likely that Miami's defense struggled to force interceptions because they didn't put their opponents into 2nd and 8+ or 3rd and 5+ situations, where interceptions are likely to occur. There simply isn't much need to throw a risky pass in a 3rd and 2 situation.

What scheme does Miami run?

This is a bit complicated. Miami is on their third defensive coordinator in three years, and Randy Shannon is a defensive head coach (most will argue to his detriment, as his ultra conservative nature hampers his team's chances to win.) Last season, Miami had Bill Young, who is considered a good defensive coordinator, and they ran Randy Shannon's defense. After firing Young, Young quipped "Randy Shannon knows more about defense than I ever will.", which means that Shannon didn't let him runt he defense how he wanted to run it. Shannon is calling the shots here, just as he did last year, and just as he will do this year with puppet defensive coordinator John Lovett. Lovett was fired from Clemson after a few years of middling results, and then went to North Carolina, where he coaches special teams. While there will obviously be some new wrinkle, Shannon will be running this defense again, which means that FSU will see Miami's typical scheme:

NOTE: i wrote this in 2008, and boy did it come true. FSU did exactly what I predicted they would do against Miami's predictable scheme.

Cover-2 Man Under

http://espn.go.com/ncf/columns/davie/1437187.html

Terminology
Why is it called Cover 2

When deciding the terminology of calling coverages, the number of deep zone pass defenders that are deployed will normally determine what a defensive coach calls a defense. In Cover 2 for example, there are two deep safeties that divide the field into halves. If the secondary played Cover 3, three deep defenders would divide the deep responsibility on the field into thirds. If they played Cover 4, four deep defenders divide the deep zone into fourths.Obviously, different teams use different terminology, but the most commonly used is simply identifying how many deep zone defenders are used.

Miami does run Cover Two as their primary defense. Instead of running it as a full-zone look (Tampa-2, from Tony Dungy), however, they adopt a common variation as their base defense (2000 Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins from 1999-2004)

Variations of Cover 2
Man under
is when the defense chooses to play two deep safeties but assign the five underneath defenders to play man-to-man on the offenses five eligible receivers.

The ESPN article talks about the Man-Under being a changeup for teams who run a cover-2 zone. That is true, but Miami uses the Man-Under look as their base defense. Most college teams don't play great Zone defense (though many do run it with some success).

Let's be Play-Station All-Americans!

Image Courtesy of Gamespot.com

Obviously, you should disregard the video game controls. This is a good photo, showing what a Man-Under/ Man-2/ Cover-2 Man/ Cover-2 5 defense looks like. Yes, that is a lot of different names.

How does Miami implement this defense? Miami will often press out of this look. In the above photo, Miami would press the "X" and "B" receiver. They can aggressively press the receiver because they have the deep safeties as a safety net, should they miss. Miami's defensive linemen aggressively attack the line of scrimmage, specifically the ends. Their Defensive Tackles play a bit more gap-responsibility than our guys. The linebackers are responsible for covering the RB's and the TE. Don't be fooled, however, their primary responsibility is the run.

What routes are unavailable or unwise against Miami's Cover-2 Man Under look? Clearly, because of the de facto double team, the outside receivers are usually taken away. Ever wonder why our famous "rainbow offense" failed miserably against Miami? Yes, that's correct. We tried to attack their strength.

Hitches, quick outs, and arrows are definitely out as primary routes because of the press. Deep outs, deep posts, and corners are out as primary routes. We will revisit those in a moment.

What primary routes will work? Assuming Miami plays press, slants, curls, comebacks, the skinny post, and digs should be open.

It's all about route combo's. We need to run pick routes (bubble screens), and route combination's that leave large areas of the field wide open. Remember how the linebackers and underneath defenders (except the 2 outside corners) are concerned with the run first? We must take advantage of that. Interior pass catchers (slot men, tight ends, and running backs) are extremely effective against this defense. Running from the inside to the flats with the interior offensive threats is extremely effective against this defense. It's also a really easy read for Ponder. We haven't thrown to the TE much in the last 15 years, but we need to now more than ever.

If the defense is playing more off-coverage, the bubble screen will be wide open, as it was in 2008 (over 100 yards on bubble screens).

Crossing routes. That's right, crossing routes are going to be important as well. Why? Crossing routes work really well against man coverage because you can lead the receiver by a considerable amount. They are also effective because they cause a lot of traffic and often, a defender can get caught up in that traffic. FSU fans see this often with their own defense. I think Ponder would much prefer to see a primarily man defense, as opposed to a zone defense.

We also have something Miami hasn't seen; something that they don't want to see; something that works really well against a man defense (safeties deep are irrelevant for purposes of this point).

A fast, agile, mobile QB Look at the graphics above. Everyone is accounted for, and the safeties have blanketed deep field. Who has the QB? Nobody. This is a huge weakness for the D. Nobody is assigned to account for Ponder. Miami's defense of Ponder's wheels will be completely reactionary, as opposed to a defense that accounts for him with a spy defender, or a zone defense, where the defenders all have their eyes on him at all times. There will be multiple opportunities for Ponder to run in this game as Miami's underneath defenders turn and run with out receiving options. Note: I don't expect Miami to ignore Ponder this season, after he gained 140+ rushing yards on them last season.

What about pass protection? Pass pro will be extremely important. Typically, teams running cover-2 man under do not blitz.

I am going to say that Miami won't blitz much in this game. Miami will be looking to get pressure with their front 4 defenders. The line is going to have to block these guys. If Miami can get pressure with their front 4 defenders, we are in a lot of trouble.

Ideally, FSU wants to run Miami out of their cover-2 look. Why? Forcing Miami to call stuff that they'd prefer not to run is advantage FSU.

FSU can do this in several ways. The first is consistently shredding the underneath stuff, making Miami impatient.

The second is the running game. Make Miami plays assignment football, use their speed, maintains their gap responsibilities, and pursue inside-out, limiting cutback lanes. Last year, Miami did not do this well at all:

via assets.sbnation.com

So enough about that scheme stuff. Who are Miami's players?

Defensive Line

This is a very talented group. Miami has done a great job recruiting along the defensive line. Phil Steele believes they are the 3rd best defensive line in the country.

At the ends, Miami has Eric Moncur, Marcus Robinson, and Adewale Ojomo. Oh wait, that's right, Ojomo broke his jaw when he was suckerpunched in the shower by another Canes player. That player is supposedly a walk-on, but Eric Moncur (yes, the other defensive end), mysteriously came down with a groin injury that needed special treatment 3000+ Miles away in Philadelphia the very next day. Internet rumors suggest that it was actually Moncur who jacked Ojomo, and not the walk-on, but that the Canes sacrificed the walk-on to avoid answering a hurricane of "team unity" questions. Moncur was going to start at Strongside End, but he is now out with that persistent groin injury (or, if you believe the rumors, secret suspension). Moncur is a pretty good player and will be missed. He is replaced by Steven Wesley, a 6'3" 260lb Junior who actually started 11 games last season (and was not very good, but was not terrible). The 6'1" 245lb Sophomore Robinson will start on the weakside, and while Ojomo wasn't the starter, he figured to see at least 40% of the snaps on the weakside. Not having Ojomo and Moncur cripple the Canes depth here, and present an immediate target for other teams to run at. The backups now are true freshman Olivier Vernon and Sophomore Andrew Smith, both of whom have never started agame (obviously). There's a real possibility Vernon could beat out Wesley, but Shannon isn't saying much right now. In any event, the Canes are now missing about 1.5 defensive end starters. This could seriously hurt them against FSU, and Georgia Tech (next week). Moncur was important for his ability to set the edge against the run. Can the true freshman Vernon do that?

Things are considerably better at defensive tackle, where the Canes have several talented players. The gem lof this group is former 5* recruit Marcus Forston. The 6'2" 308lb sophomore was a freshman All-America a year ago. Fortson is big and quick and is just a very good player. Next to him is a physical freak in Allen Bailey. The former outside linebacker has grown to 6'4" 285lbs and is now a junior. He's probably the most physically impressive player in college football, but it doesn't always show up in his play on the field. He had a torn pectoral last season and only played in a few games, but was very productive.

via assets.sbnation.com

Allen Bailey scares me. He kills alligators with shovels. Really.

Miami's tackle tandem represents a problem for any opposing offense. Another challenging for a starting job is 4* tackle Josh Holmes, a 6'0" 280lb fireplug who is more consistent than Forston, though less talented. Oh, and Miami also has excellent depth at this position. 6'3" 305lb Senior Joe Joseph started 14 games over the course of his career, and would start at most schools. They also have 6'2" 321lb Sophomore Micanor Regis, who is far from refined but another big body the canes can put in there.

This is an excellent defensive line when healthy, and even without Ojomo and Moncur, they are pretty good. One thing the canes might do is to shift Bailey out to defensive end, a position he played previously. They have the depth at defensive tackle to replace Bailey and they need someone to play the run and pass at defensive end. Expect much better play from the tackles who are now healthy and a year older. The ends are anyone's guess, but every team will look to test the replacement.

Linebackers

Miami lost Glenn Cook, who was consistent, but unremarkable. On the outside they have the ACC's Defensive Rookie of the Year, 6'0" 212lb Sean Spence. Spence makes a ton of plays because he is rarely blocked (defensive tackles absorbing the blockers). He is lightning quick and has great football instincts. He is not great at shedding blockers, however, so the key is to run right at him. In the middle, the Canes have 10th year Senior Darryl Sharpton. He's 6'0" 235lbs, and has started 20 games. Sharpton is a decent player, and should be good at recognizing run flow because he has played forever. Their other outside linebacker is the very underrated Colin McCarthy. McCarthy missed last year's FSU game (320 yards rushing allowed), and the 6'3" 235lb outside backer is key to the Cane's defense, particularly because they lost their defensive ends (see above). A backup capable of playing the middle or the outside is 5* recruit Arthur Brown, who started slow a year ago but had a nice fall camp.

Overall, this is a very good linebacker unit. Other than spence, they don't blow you away with their athleticism, but they are veteran, talented, and have a nice football understanding.

Front-7 Size

While Miami isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, (playing cover-1 or cover-3), they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know: there were 9 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, North Carolina, Iowa, Cal, and Florida. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. Miami checked in at 1785lbs. That is not so big as to be able to easily stop the run without using a safety. Of course, this puts Miami in a bit of a quandry. Cou can't effectively play cover-2 with 8 in the box. Of course, when your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. Miami got ran on so much last season that their safeties rarely were able to focus solely on the pass, and thus the low interception totals. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above.

This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1777lbs, which is slightly smaller than last year, though the difference is likely negligible because of their improved talent level. How does that rate against other defensive fronts FSU played last year?

There are two ways to stop FSU's running game and not get burned by the bubble screen (a pass FSU throws exceptionally well) Essentially, the bubble screen is a tool to make sure that the defense plays 7 in the box and not 8. If the defense cheats and brings extra men against the run, we throw the bubble to keep them honest. :

The first is to have a huge, disciplined front 7, that is difficult to cut block. One that takes good angles and doesn't allow cutbacks. This allows teams to play straight upon the receivers, also maintaining deep coverage. Or...

Play 8 in the box and play zero coverage-press man against each receiver. Virginia Tech did this and they were eventually burned deep. This requires excellent athletes in the secondary, and nobody on FSU's schedule should expect their cornerbacks to cover FSU's 4 and 5* receivers without safety help.

As we'll see in a second, UNC does not have the option to play number two. They have to hope their front-7 can stop the run. What did other front 7's do against FSU's run game?

Boston College 1912lbs,

Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards. Wake was very big. They were able to play the bubble straight up, which worked very well. They also had 4 seniors on defense drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137 Big and supremely talented, the rushing success came primarily in garbage time.

Miami 1785lbs, 51 rushes, 325 yards. There is a pretty big drop off from UF to Miami (55lbs). Remember here that FSU's rushing success came primarily on reverses and Ponder running, most of which was a result of Miami's idiotic plan to defense FSU's attack. FSU bubbled them to death when they went 8 or 9 in the box.

Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards. Remember that GTech was missing 2 key linebackers and a safety. Still, this is a big drop in weight from the 3 schools over 1835lbs.

Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards. Poor numbers. Explanation? Yes. VT played 8 in the box and manned up on the wide receivers. If you're puzzled, remember what happened: the only thing open was the deep ball. They saturated the running lanes and pressed FSU's wideouts. Eventually, FSU burned them deep.

Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards These numbers aren't amazing, but much of this game was us trying to control the clock while battling holding penalties. They also include lost sack yardage (which isn't a run play). Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards Maryland struggled all game in choosing to defend the bubble or the run.

Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards The smallest front we played AND they decided to stop the bubble. Running wild was the obvious result.

Bottom Line: if Miami had their starting defensive ends, there's a chance they could sit back and stop most team's run game while playing their preferred cover-2 shell with man coverage underneath. Without them, it's doubtful. Teams should be able to get Miami out of that shell (unless Miami just wants to give up a lot of rushing yards, like a year ago). But this front-7 is more talented than a year ago, and a year older, so they could have some success against the run without involving their safeties.

Secondary

Last year, Miami's secondary took a lot of heat for their performance, some deserved, but some undeserved. Miami's DB's were put in poor situations, and in those situations, they underperformed even the situationally reduced expectations, as they registered only three interceptions (lowest in the country). As discussed above, Bill Young/ Randy Shannon did a poor job calling defenses against the run, and it was obvious that Miami's safeties became pre-occupied with stopping the run, even if their pre-snap alignment didn't indicate that. The corners did not play well last year and lacked awareness.

The veteran leader of this group is the Redshirt Senior Randy Phillips, who seems to have been around since the Chris Rix days. He didn't play much last season, and took a Medical Redshirt. He's a decent run defender, and understands the defense very well, having played in more than 30 career games. Maybe he will play well as a senior, but he hasn't shown much so far and isn't considered an NFL prospect of any note. At Strong Safety is Vaughn Telemaque. The Redshirt freshman. is 6'2" 200 and Hurricane fans feel he is like a mutation of Sean Taylor and Ed Reed. That seems a little premature considering he has yet to start a game. It's safe to say he is athletic and definitely has potential, but he is a redshirt freshman. But in a surprise move, Miami is actually starting JoJo Nicolas, who started 8 games for them last season. He's not a great player, but knows his assignments better than Telemaque, and at the safety position, it's really important to know the plays, as safeties are the last line of defense.

At the Boundary Corner is Brandon Harris. Let's go to the photos

Yeah, that's high. Brandon Harris apparently is averse to jumping.

But not to pass intereference:

That's probably not fair. While Harris was picked on by FSU, the 5'10" 190lb Sophomore will probably be better this season. He took his lumps last year as a true freshman. He was a 4* recruit and is unquestionably Miami's best corner. At the field corner (the side more likely to receive safety help), the Canes have a logjam. Junior Demarcus Van Dyke has good physical talent but has yet to live up to his potential. They also have senior Sam Shields, who is making the switch from wide receiver to defensive back. He has looked good in practice so far, but he could also be vulnerable to double moves due to his limited experience at the position. At the Nickel Corner, the Canes have Senior Chavez Grant, who has started 17 games. He's not an impressive player (nobody in this secondary is- yet), and it shows as he got moved to the Nickel corner despite having started 13 games.

This weekend, we'll discuss how FSU plans to attack this defense. The important things to remember are that their front-7 is very talented, but depleted, they likely can't stop the run without heavily involving their safeties, and if (when) they do leave their Cover-2 shell, will their corners be able to hold up without a bunch of help over the top? This defense will likely be improved, and should be in the top half of the country and the ACC, but they have a long way to go to even be average and they are not special yet.

The Connect: Summer CanesFest Edition

The Great Barstoolio — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 23:36:58 -0000

ETA: hopefully last update: UM has pics

Let's just get this out of the way: Bryce Brown was there, in Tennessee shorts. Clearly, between having a UM hat at his signing for no reason and showing up to CanesFest, he has a giant boner for both Miami and attention. Speaking of hats, Randy Shannon said on QAM from the stadium that most of the time - not always, but most of the time - kids who pull hat tricks are basically assholes and not worth the trouble. Snap!

The Sun-Sentinel has pics, though no one has yet looked at Travis Benjamin directly and lived, so beware. The Palm Beach Post keeps an eye on the Freak. And Eye On the U is impressed with the fan-friendly affair:

Not once in the 14 years I've been working for The Miami Herald have I ever seen fans not only have two hours worth of access to players and coaches, but to be able to interact (take pictures, dunk players, even get some smooches) with them like family and friends. Hats off to athletic director Kirby Hocutt and coach Randy Shannon for taking a giant leap forward from the way these events used to be run.

Several players were game to spend time in the dunk tank at fans' mercy, including Graig Cooper, Laron Byrd, Sean Spence, and Javarris James. But none made the impression that Allen Bailey did: "He's like Shamu up there," said a UM assistant before Bailey was dunked and the splash was so large more water had to be added to the tank.

Dedrick Epps was roaming around reassuring everyone that he's functional after knee surgery, and will be ready to go when workouts start. "I'm fine," he said, though he noted he's not 100% yet and still feels sore after workouts. "I've been running on it for a long time. I don't know exactly how long, but it's been a little while. I'm feeling good. I plan to be ready."

Ray Ray is not, unfortunately, perfect in every way on arrival. "He's definitely big and strong," Chavez Grant said. "But everyday in practice we're working with him, trying to get his feet right and work with his hips. He's not bad. But at this level you have to be a lot quicker, a lot faster at what you do... at this level you get beat by a step and it's over."

Jimmy Graham is no male cheerleader: "I definitely didn't want to come back to look pretty on the sideline," he said. "I came back so I can help these guys win something. It means a lot for me to play for the U, especially football, my first love." We'll check back in with him in August when he realizes the contact happens without a/c, but in the meantime, he's getting help from Bernie Kosar and Ed Reed. (Hopefully not financial help.)

Allen Bailey power cleaned 400 pounds last Tuesday, which he says set a new UM team record. Holy hell. That is all.

The young guys are breaking down film with the ProCanes. Jacory's shoulder is okay. Randy Phillips is god. And Arthur Brown is coming out of his shell. Manny has it all.

Eric Moncur -- and his awesome muppet eyebrows -- are back. "I'm good to go," he said. "Words can't describe it - coming out, being around the guys, they're all like my little brothers. They're all younger than me. I'm so excited to get this season started... It's going to be nasty, man. We're going to be nasty up front. It's going to be crazy."

Said Bailey about getting Moncur back: "He's been here about eight years now. He knows a lot. He's been around, has seen a lot of things." LIKE THE EMPTINESS IN LARRY COKER'S EYES.

Colin McCarthy says Heather Dinich's no. 1 ranking for his unit sounds good. "That makes sense, that's accurate," McCarthy said. "We have a lot of depth, are two or three deep across the board. With Sean, he's one of the top linebackers. With all of us together and the way we work, way we chase the ball, No. 1 in the ACC, that sounds about right."

Of Lovett's defense, McCarthy reported, "It's more of the defense we ran my freshman year under Coach Shannon. It's not as many checks, just go out there, we'll get a call and play football. That's how it was back in the day when the athletes we had could just use their athleticism and make plays. The defense is more simplified."

CBS4 has video of Jacory being Jacory.

El Herald has audio from Vaughn Telemaque, DeMarcus Van Dyke, Sean Spence, Randy Shannon, Ray Ray Armstrong, Olivier Vernon, Colin McCarthy, Lamar Miller, Jimmy Graham, Jamal Reid ("Oh, I'm livin' right now!"), Jacory Harris, Dedrick Epps, Eric Moncur, Dyron Dye [spontaneous orgasm], Brandon Harris, Brandon McGee, and Chavez Grant, who reported that Ed Reed, Reggie Wayne, and Jonathan Vilma are spending a lot of time at Greentree.

Rest assured we at The 7th Floor will never, ever work that hard.

ETA: MIKE JAMES (MIKE JAYYYMES!) SIGHTING!

The Connect: 03/18/09

The Great Barstoolio — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:03:49 -0000

Lou Holtz went on to eat that grass he's picking at. Like a brain-damaged hamster.

Neutral site game location: Charlie Weis' deepset navel What? It'd be just like Cal's stadium! Miami and Notre Dame have reached out and touched each other in the interest of renewing one of college football's nastiest rivalries [reminisce here if you can stand to watch Don Bailey, Jr. talk - I know I can't]. ND's contract with Notre Dame includes an annual neutral site game through 2015, which their AD Jack Swarbrick suggests might be just the place to insert a good old-fashioned ass-whipping.

Swarbrick says the matchup, initiated by Miami's Kirby Hocutt, is appealing because "they are two great academic institutions. We're eager to play schools that share our values." EQUAL VALUES? As far as I can tell ND's values extend only to uniformly pale skin and a decrepit, hollow shell of a fanbase. I think not, Swarbrick. Those are fighting words, and now you must die.

Honey, I didn't mean it. You just made me so angry. ESPN's Heather Dinich is back in my much-yearned-for good graces after a pretty decent snap yesterday. See, baby, if you just do what you're supposed to, I wouldn't have to keep you in line.

Speaking of ESPN, even Ivan Maisel is taking note of what's brewing in Coral Gables, picking the 'Canes as a team to make a big leap forward this year:

Mark Whipple, who will run the offense, may be the best coordinator hire of the college football offseason. John Lovett will run the defense. In other words, the table is set.

Yeah, bitches! All we need now are dinner ~~guests~~ victims. NOM NOM NOM.

We're going to need a bigger armhole. Behold Allen Bailey before last week's scrimmage. There are no words (except, "Please don't hurt me, Mr. Bailey").

Opponent	Miami	BYU	USF	BC	GT	NC	NCSU
Plays	71	77	64	71	66	65	73
Yards per play allowed	5.7	6.6	4.5	6.8	8.2	6.7	7.6
Rushes	28	49	22	28	28	23	33
Yards/rush allowed	4.5	6.4	2.8	2.9	6.9	2.3	8.4
Passing Plays	43	28	42	43	38	42	40
Yards pass/allowed	6.4	7.1	5.4	7.7	9.1	9.2	6.9