SB Nation - Brooks Foster

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Preview, part Deux

FSUncensored — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Butch Davis- "Thank God I get to play the most undisciplined and worst coached defense in the country!" (AP Photo/Gregory Smith, File)

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First, check out yesterday's part 1. Then read this.

Kickoff is 8pm Eastern. ESPN. Weather looks nice, lower 70's, no rain.

We will live-blog the game like we always do! Be here at 7:30 Eastern to get in on the action.

Inside:

Depth Charts
In-Depth Statistical Breakdown
Personnel Review
A conceptual look at UNC's attack
What can FSU do to stop UNC?
Prediction

Quarterback
13 - T.J. Yates (6-3, 220, Jr.)
Fullback
4 - Bobby Rome (5-11, 245, Sr.) OR
6 - Anthony Elzy (5-10, 215, Jr.) OR
45 - Devon Ramsey (6-2, 245, So.)
Tailback
20 - Shaun Draughn (6-0, 210, Jr.)
32 - Ryan Houston (6-2, 245, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
8 - Greg Little (6-3, 215, Jr.)
87 - Jheranie Boyd (6-2, 185, Fr.)
Wide Receiver
88 - Erik Highsmith (6-3, 175, Fr.)
83 - Dwight Jones (6-4, 220, So.)
3 - Joshua Adams (6-4, 200, Fr.) (questionable)
Left Tackle
72 - Kyle Jolly (6-6, 310, Sr.)
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.)
Left Guard
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.) OR
64 - Jonathan Cooper (6-3, 295, Fr.*) (questionable, but will start if healthy)
Center
65 - Cam Holland (6-2, 300, So.) Banged up last game
75 - Tavares Brown (6-0, 310, Sr.)
Right Guard
70 - Alan Pelc (6-6, 325, Jr.)
Right Tackle
66 - Mike Ingersoll (6-5, 300, Jr.)
Tight End
80 - Ed Barham (6-3, 265, Jr.) OR
17 - Zack Pianalto (6-4, 255, Jr.) MAYBE
33 - Christian Wilson (6-3, 235, So.)

Let's start with last season:

Actually, let's not. The Heel's offense was good, definitely one of the 35 best in the country. They lost basically everyone. This year?

Here's their performance against 1A competition to date:

UNC Offensive Performance
Opponent	at UCONN	ECU	Gtech	UVA
Opponent Defenisve Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	54th	98th	60th	27th
Plays	67	63	44	59
Yards Per Play	4.1	6.9	3.5	2.9
Rushes	29	37	17	21
Yards/ Rush	2.4	4	1.4	2.3
Passing Plays	38	26	27	38
Yards/ Pass Play	5.4	11	5.9	3.3
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	27-9 (33%)-11	35-11 (35%)- 11	16- 4 (25%)- 9	21-9-8
Standard 2nd Downs	5-10 (50%)	5-8 (63%)	3-5 (60%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 2nd Downs	3-14 (21%)	5-13 (38%)	2-9 (22%)	0-12 (0%)
Standard 3rd Downs	2-6 (33%)	4-5 (80%)	2-5 (40%)	2-5 (40%)
Passing 3rd Downs	4-10 (40%)	1-7 (14%)	1-10 (10%)	3-13 (23%)
Note:	Only 6 successes in 29 runs, horrible. 18 successes in 38 pass plays is much better		10 plays and 37 yards in garbage time Did have a bad snap for -20 Very sloppy, dropped passes and inaccurate.	1 Drive over 20 yards 6 of 10 1st down passes went for 5+ yards, very safe. 6 of 21 success rate rushing (terrible) 12 of 38 Success Passing

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

That's really bad. Know what else is bad? FSU's defense!

Opponent	Miami	at BYU	USF	at BC	Georgia Tech
Opponent Offensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22	6	94	61	2
Plays	74	53	60	57	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

Click to enlarge (works today)

Yes, you're reading that right. UNC's offense is the 99th best in the country. You could call it the 22nd worst! And not to be outdone, FSU's defense so far has been the 101th best! Yes, 101. To sum it up in one sentence, North Carolina's offense failed to move the ball at all against both good and bad defenses, while FSU's defense allows everyone to do whatever they wish.

Who does it for them?

At quarterback is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. As you can see from the chart above, he is an average player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and he did drop some weight in the off-season.

I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. I wrote that this summer, and so far this year against D1 competition, he has a 4-6 TD/ INT ratio.

They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game They've shown little of either so far.

He's not your ideal running threat, but against the most undisciplined, worst coached defense in the nation, look for him to be running with the ball.

Offensive Line

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

I think I nailed this. UNC still can't run the ball worth a damn. They have not stayed healthy. Center Lowell Dyer strained a muscle in his right shoulder in practice the week of the Connecticut game and has missed five straight games. He is
undergoing rehab with the hopes of returning before the season ends, but will not play against FSU. He's been replaced by Sophomore Cam Holland (6'2" 310). Redshirt freshman Guard Jonathan Cooper twisted his right ankle in his first career start vs. The Citadel and did not play the following week vs. Connecticut. He returned last week and will start against the 'Noles.

This is probably the worst offensive line FSU will have played to date (USF being the only challenger). They aren't great in pass protection nor run blocking. Luckily for them, they play the most undisciplined defense in the country.

If FSU gets them in 3rd and long, FSU should use the prowler. UVA had success with it:

Pass Catchers

Wrote this over summer:

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

For the most part, I nailed this. Little is the #1. They like to throw him short stuff and let him work with his legs. The #2, however, was a surprise. It's Freshman Erik Highsmith, a 6'3" 175' kid who has done a lot for them in a short period of time. Starting tight end Zack Pianalto dislocated his foot vs. Connecticut after scoring a touchdown and has missed four consecutive games. He returned to practice last week, and will play against FSU. His effectiveness, however, is yet to be determined.

UNC's wideouts run really poor routes. I did rip Yates for being inaccurate, but part of that needs to fall on the receivers for not being where they are supposed to be. Additionally, they drop balls. These guys are big, fast athletes, but as I predicted, they are inconsistent and really lack polish.

Backs

I wrote:

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Womble is out for the year, and Rome has been banged up, largely replaced by 6'0" 245 Devon Ramzey. This is pretty much accurate. Their backs don't scare me, but they aren't a bad group. As usual, the offensive line matters a lot more than the running backs.

Focus on Common Opponents

I want to take a minute to show the differences between the two teams. Both teams played Georgia Tech's defense.

Opponent: Georgia Tech	Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted): Georgia Tech has the #2 offense in the Country to date.
Defense	FSU's Defense	North Carolina Defense
Plays	63	77
Yards Per Play Allowed	8.5	5.3
Rushes	55	65
Yards/ Rush Allowed	7.4	5
Passing Plays	8	12
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	16.4	6.9

Yeah, FSU's defense is much worse. The 'Noles allowed 35% more yards per play than UNC did, and UNC was on the road while FSU was at home. I guess that's why the 'Nole's defense is 101st and the Tar Heel's is 10th. I actually believe FSU's defense is even worse than their 101st ranking (can't believe I am saying that).

Now I want to do something a different. Follow me here. FSU's defense ranks # 101. East Carolina's ranks #98. That's pretty comparable. USF's offense ranks # 94, and UNC's #99. That's pretty comparable. Let's look at what FSU's defense did against a bad offense and what UNC's bad offense did against a bad defense:

Team	FSU's Defense against	UNC's Offense Against
v.	USF (94th ranked Offense)	ECU (98th best defense)
Plays	60	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.2	6.9
Rushes	37	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	5	4
Passing Plays	23	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	8.2	11

Remember that USF runs a spread option- the best offense to run against FSU. UNC does not run that.
However, USF also played prevent offense for more than a quarter, so their performance was much better than their 6.2 showed.
ECU's defense is very similar to FSU's
I would expect UNC to get about 6.5 yards per play.

How do they do it?

Bunch & Motion & Stack & Tight - man beaters

UNC runs almost every play out of some sort of bunch, stack, or tight formation. What is that?

Click to enlarge.

The reason for this is pretty simple. UNC's wideouts do not run good routes. Ideally, teams would like to run man-coverage against them and blitz. When receivers are bunched up or stacked or in tight, and a team wants to play man-coverage against those wideouts, they will have to put two defenders in very close proximity to each other. That poses a substantial risk that those two defenders will collide or get tangled up when trying to cover. It also prevents the defense from playing press-man coverage (again, the goal being to help out the young receivers by allowing them a clean release off the line.

ECU played a ton of man and got burnt. I fully expect FSU to bang their heads against the wall and get burnt on this. The 'Nole's defense will look really stupid. Combine that with the problems they have defending the tight end, and you have the recipe for a truly horrid pass offense to look pretty good. Mickey Andrews needs to play some zone and he won't because he is stubborn.

As for the motion, UNC motions on every single play. It allows the offense to get a better idea of what the defense is doing based off how the defense reacts. UNC players have commented how simple FSU's defense is, and that tells me that they are confident they will figure out what FSU is doing based off the 'Nole's reaction to the pre-snap motion. I'll figure that they will have the 'Nole's simple hand signals down by the middle of the 1st quarter.

A Little Clemson

This offense reminds me of the Rob Spence attack Clemson ran in 2006 and 2007.

Self Inflicted Wounds

UNC really does a nice job stopping themselves. Lazy/ bad routes, bad throws, and lapses in protection (and run blocking) hurt this club, as have penalties. I don't figure them to take a lot of risks, but

Slow Starters

For whatever reason, UNC has gotten off to really slow starts in their 4 games against D1 competition.

UConn

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:34	UNC 23	3	2	Punt
10:59	3:23	UNC 20	9	37	Int
6:12	2:08	UNC 3	3	9	Punt
3:04	3:51	UNC 35	8	38	FG Miss

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
9:33	1:57	Conn 48	3	-9	Punt
4:48	1:19	UNC 38	3	-7	Punt


3rd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:31	3:07	UNC 27	6	15	Punt
8:29	2:56	UNC 1	5	15	Punt
3:33	1:19	UNC 21	3	5	Int

East Carolina

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:38	UNC 18	3	6	Punt
11:00	0:30	UNC 31	2	2	Fumble
7:00	2:16	UNC 40	6	60	TD
3:00	1:39	UNC 19	3	4	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:44	2:26	UNC 8	5	14	Punt
10:43	1:32	UNC 23	3	-13	Punt

Georgia Tech

Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:27	UNC 20	3	4	Punt
8:57	1:03	UNC 19	3	1	Punt
3:04	0:55	UNC 8	3	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:47	1:37	UNC 20	3	-2	Punt
10:39	2:18	UNC 31	5	1	Fumble

UVA

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:40	UNC 20	3	-4	Punt
12:17	1:30	UNC 20	3	3	Punt
9:27	2:09	UNC 44	4	14	Punt
4:46	3:00	UNC 13	6	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
12:00	1:20	UNC 25	3	8	Punt
6:50	2:49	UNC 28	6	18	Punt

It's very important for FSU to not allow UNC to get off to a fast start. This is a team lacking in confidence, and if the longer they go without grabbing a big lead, the tighter they will play. And this team will begin to press. I'd expect them to play conservative early, but if they get down late, expect Yates to chuck it up.

No dropback downfield passing game (only PA)

UNC has zero dropback passing game. There's not much to say about this expect that almost every time they drop back without moving the pocket or using play-action, they look really bad.

Moving The Pocket

UNC's passing game is almost entirely based on bootlegs, rollouts, etc. Yates loves to get far outside the pocket (with his OLine, you would as well) and set his feet before launching. FSU must to not let him set his feet on rollouts.

When they rollout or bootleg, they look to hit a lot of deep crossing routes. This works for them because the wideouts don't typically have to run a great route, it's more of a drift team.

Screen Game

When FSU checks to Cover-3 (after motion), they will run this:

Click to enlarge.

No Huddle

UNC has done a nice job running limited no huddle (hurrying up to the line when running back to back plays).

Cut their Splits and Blast Block the Power?

UNC's primary run play is the Power. Down, Down, Pull (kick-out) and go. The linemen all block down -- meaning they step away from where the play is going -- to crush the defensive linemen and get double-teams. The offense makes up for this by using the fullback to block the defensive end from the inside-out, and they block the linebacker on the play side by pulling the backside guard. Here's a great post on the play. I'd expect UNC to cut their splits to prevent penetration and run this play 20+ times tonight. FSU has struggled against this before.

They also do a lot of end-around motion off the power, occasionally giving it but more often than not just holding the edge player for a second.

FSU's injuries

FSU is really banged up and will be without Starters in bold. Key reserves in italics:

CB Dionte Allen (thumb),
LB Maurice Harris (neck)*,
TE Caz Piurowski (knee)*,
DT Budd Thacker (knee).

WR Richard Goodman (groin),
SS Korey Mangum (shoulder),
DT Justin Mincey (knee),
CB Patrick Robinson (ankle),
LB Dekoda Watson (groin/knee)
* - out for the season

Several of the backups are now walk-ons. That is what happens when you have 5 terrible defensive coaches who don't give a damn about recruiting in 2006 and 2007. You have no depth. This defensive coaching staff really is the worst in the country.

Prediction:

As I said yesterday, I expect FSU to get close to 6.2 yards per play against UNC's defense, which would be by far the most they have given up all year, by 25%. That's a win for the offense, and I think they get about 27 points. I think UNC's offense will get it together against FSU's trash defense. Allowing anything over 4.5 yards per play to one of the worst offenses I have seen in a long time would be ridiculous, but I see FSU allowing UNC to go for much more than that and allow 6.5 yards per play, which would be a complete and utter embarrassment. Special teams are a factor here and UNC's group is nothing to write home about, while FSU's return teams have been good (coverage is another story). I'll say UNC gets 28 points on a mixture of plays for loss and big plays to win 28-27 over a 'Nole's team that could have some serious infighting between an elite level offense and an embarrassment level defense.

Chance to win: 45%

'Nole Your Enemy: The North Carolina Tar Heel Offense

FSUncensored — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 20:05:35 -0000

TJ Yates drops back to pass for the North Carolina Tar Heels.

View full size photo »

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Yesterday we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense.

As always, we look at how good a team was last year, and then examine who left, who is back, and who should step up.

First, we'll take a look at Brian Fremeau's Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Let's compare UNC to other ACC teams. NOTE: these metrics are advanced. The methodology can be found in the links. They don't include numbers after a game is a blowout. It's about competitive possessions only.

By this measure they were the ACC's 4th best offense (about 30th Nationally). It's worth noting that slightly higher ranked opponents gave the FSU defense fits (GTech averaging 8.4 yards per snap before their QB went down with an ankle injury, NCST did similar before FSU's offense held the ball for 38 minutes). And offenses ranked lower did similar, which is scary.

How about Bill Connelley's S&P+ measure (Fremeau and Connelley are the two foremost experts in measuring football performance.)

When AOE and S&P+ agree, it makes things much easier to analyze because I don't have to discuss why the metrics differ. While AOE has UNC at about 30th, S&P+ calls them 40th, but they both call UNC the 4th best ACC offense.

What about in ACC games only, where the style of play is very conservative?

In ACC games, UNC was distinctly in that middle group. I find the segmentation here pretty fascinating, and wow was Wake Forest bad on offense.

What about UNC's passing game?

Okay, wow. UNC had far and away the best passing game in the ACC. I'm not feigning surprise there. I knew they were good, but that is tremendous. What's also curious is the bunching in the middle. Everyone seems to be pretty close except for VTech. In ACC games only, the numbers were similar (sorry, no graph).

How about UNC's run game?

Okay, so that's not all that impressive. they were slightly worse in conference play, but not much, so no graph is needed.

I think it's pretty safe to say that UNC's offense was between the 30th and 40th best in the Nation.

UNC's attack is pretty pro-style, in that they aren't a spread team. They do run some shotgun, but for the most part, they will run with 2 wideouts, one running back, one tight end, and then either a fullback, tight end, or extra wide receiver. Their run game doesn't have much misdirection, though they will occasionally run a counter or two. They do, however, do a great job running the bootleg and consistently punish teams with over pursuing defensive ends (that's FSU, folks). Their offensive coordinator is Jon Shoop, who has NFL experience. Let's get to their personnel...

Quarterback

UNC's QB is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last year, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. Here's a look at what he did last season:

	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating
McNeese St.	26	15	58	221	8.5	2	1	147
@ Rutgers	22	14	64	221	10	3	0	193
15 Virginia Tech	18	11	61	181	10.1	1	0	164
22 Georgia Tech	3	1	33	28	9.3	0	0	112
North Carolina St.	22	10	46	116	5.3	0	1	81
@ Duke	19	15	79	190	10	3	1	205
+ 23 West Virginia	25	15	60	211	8.4	2	1	149
Totals	135	81	60	1168	8.7	11	4	154

In any case, Yates is a decent player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and might have dropped some weight. I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game

He doesn't have much in the way of a backup, and Yates has had injury problems. If he goes down, look out. We'll revisit that as the game approaches.

Offensive Line

While the quarterback is more important than any one lineman, the offensive line as a whole is probably more important than quarterback play, and certainly more important than the play of the wide receivers or running backs. That's why we analyze them next.

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Okay, now to the pass catchers.

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

Running Backs

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Final Thoughts:

We classify UNC as a pro-style offense. The question in my mind is just how pro-style will they be? Why does this matter? Here:

FSU's Defense		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent Type	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Decidedly Not Pro-Style	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

So there are mixed signals here. UNC's wideouts are really inexperienced but also pretty talented. Their offensive line is unproven. Will teams respect their run? Can UNC run the football? If UNC can run the ball and teams creep up to stop their run game, they can create one on one matchups for their wide receivers, which could really help them. I suspect UNC's wideouts will struggle against zone coverages, as they fail to sit down in the voids in the zone. How much will UNC run their quarterback? His past suggests he isn't very mobile, but maybe he has had that special off-season and is now running the ball? The more UNC uses a fullback, the better for FSU. I suspect they will use a lot of two tight end, two wide receiver sets, and will try to win this game by pounding the football and throwing off play-action, specifically bootlegs. Still, this offense should take a step back from where they were last year. I expect them to again be in the top half of the country, but a return to the top Quarter of college football teams is unlikely. They simply lost too much talent (2 or 3 offensive line starters) and 4 pass catchers who went to the NFL combine. The key, as usual, will be to stop their run game and their big backs without over-committing the safeties. If UNC wants to line up in the I-formation, FSU should be able to handle them. The evolution of the UNC offense will be something I watch with great interest this year. Here's hoping they stay very "pro-style."

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Let's Take A Look At The Roster

Tackle Box — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 10:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

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Well, the draft is over and while there has been some teeth gnashing over some of the picks, my personal opinion is that the team filled it's most pressing needs and built some good depth.

Then again, that's my gut reaction.

The team solidified it's Offensive Line (Jason Smith) and bulked up the Run Defense (James Laurinaitis, Dorell Scott). They then went out and added some depth with some players who have raw talent (Brooks Foster and Bradley Fletcher) and a quarterback who has a lot of us scratching our heads.

I have to say I'm not exactly sure about Chris Ogbonnaya, but he's bigger than I realized and apparently has pretty reliable hands. Honestly, he's a lot like Steven Jackson without the stunning track record.

Anyway, the question that needs to be addresseed is, "is the team better after this draft?" I can't see how anyone would say it isn't. We added the best Offensive Lineman and a Top Middle Linebacker to the fold and these were two spots of definite weakness. But what about the rest of the team? Sure we got better at two key spots, but that might not be enough, Let's take a look at our depth chart to see if it is.

Starting with the offense.

Quarterback:

Mark Bulger - 6'3" 212 - 32 years old - 5 years remaining on contract
Kyle Boller - 6'3" 220 - 27 years old - 1 year contract
Keith Null - 6'4" 222 - Rookie
Brock Berlin - 6'1" 215 - 27 years old - Will be a RFA

Here, I'm listing Null as the number 3 since I really think he'll displace Berlin. Berlin brings absolutely nothing to the table so why not go with Null, right? He's younger and could possibly become something...well, something better than Brock Berlin. Besides, it's not like you could make the argument that Berlin knows the system. No one really knows the system since it's a new system.

Running Back:

Steven Jackson - 6'2" 231 - 25 years old - 5 years left on contract
Kenneth Darby - 5'10" 211 - 26 years old - Will be a RFA
Chris Ogbonnaya - 6'1" 225 - 22 years old - Rookie
Antonio Pittman - 5'11" 195 - 23 years old - Will be a RFA
Brian Leonard - 6'1" 226 - 25 years old - 2 years left on contract

Well, there's some depth. Probably nothing that could take over if something happens to Jackson. (By the way, I'm slotting Ogbonnaya in the 3rd slot. No particular reason, but that's how I see it.) I'm still holding out hope the Rams get after Warrick Dunn. He'd be a difference maker.

(Note: Jeremiah Johnson did not get drafted)

Fullback:

Mike Karney - 5'11" 258 - 27 years old - Signed through 2011

That's it. Hope nothing happens to him, but what are you gonna do? Have two really good blocking Fullbacks on the roster at the same time? No. So, we should be fine here and since Karney is a great blocker, hopefully we'll keep Jackson healthier this year.

Wide Receiver:

Donnie Avery - 5'11" 190 - 24 years old - Signed through 2011
Laurent Robinson - 6'2" 195 - 23 years old - Signed through 2010
Keenan Burton - 6'1" 200 - 24 years old - Signed through 2010
Brooks Foster - 6'3" 205 - 23 years old - Rookie

After Foster, you'll see Derek Stanley, who's injured, followed by Travis Brown, Joel Filani, Chad Lucas, and Nate Jones. DON'T expect to see any of those guys on the roster this year. DO expect to see the Rams re-sign Dane Looker. You might also expect to see them add a veteran receiver who's either already available or becomes availalble during camp (but I wouldn't count on it). This is a very young receiving corps (average age 23.5 years), but I feel there is a ton of upside here. Not necessarily for this season (it'll be there in flashes), but it should start to develop and really start to blossom in 2010.

However, if our ground game takes off like a lot of us hope it will, then you'll see an immediate (positive) impact on our receiving corps. It all starts up front and we now have the horses to get it going.

Tight End:

Randy McMichael - 6'3" 255 - 29 years old - FA in 2010
Billy Bajema - 6'4" 255 - 26 years old - Under contract through 2011
Joe Klopfenstein - 6'5" 262 - 25 years old - FA in 2010
Daniel Fells - 6'4" 252 - 25 years old - FA in 2010
Eric Butler - 6'2" 255 - 24 years old - FA in 2010

Let's hope McMichael stays healthy. If he does, you can pretty much add him to the receiving corps making it much more potent. Then you add Steven Jackson and possibly Ogbonnaya and you've all of a sudden find a lot of options. Then if you can just add Warrick Dunn..............

Anyway, as far as Tight End, look for the Rams to draft one next season. Tight ends seem to be able to make the move to the NFL rather easily so it wasn't imperative to draft and groom McMichael's replacement this year.

Center:

Jason Brown - 6'3" 320 - 25 years old - Signed through 2013
Tim Mattran - 6'5" 298 - 24 years old - FA in 2010

I don't know who Tim Mattran is, and I don't care. Jason Brown is a difference maker and should improve things immensely.

Guard:

Richie Incognito - 6'3" 330 - 25 years old - FA in 2010
Jacob Bell - 6'4" 295 - 28 years old - Signed throught 2013
Jonn Greco - 6'5" 325 - 24 years old - RFA in 2011
Adam Goldberg - 6'7" 318 - 28 years old - Signed through 2010
Mark Setterstrom - 6'4" 314 - 25 years old - FA in 2010
Roy Schuening - 6'4" 308 - 25 years old - RFA in 2011

Lot's of depth here and with the addition of Brown as the Center, I expect Incognito and Bell to have great seasons.

Tackle:

Alex Barron - 6'7" 315 - 26 years old - FA in 2010
Jason Smith - 6'5" 298 - 22 years old - Rookie
Adam Goldberg - 6'7" 318 - 28 years old - Signed through 2010
Daren Heerspink - 6'6" 315 - 25 years old - FA in 2010

Jason Smith rounds out this line and should be able to step in on day one and have an impact. He's not Orlando Pace in his prime, but who is? What he is is a great athlete with a great work ethic who has been extremely good and has yet to reach his full potential. We should see great things from this line.

Average age of Line Starters: 25.2 years (Barron 26, Bell 28, Brown, 25, Incognito 25, Smith 22).

So, going into next year, we're going need a new Tight End and we'll have to probably draft a legit Quarterback plus possibly look for a big Receiver.

On to the Defense:

Defensive Tackle:

Adam Carriker - 6'6" 296 - 24 years old - Signed through 2011
Clifton Ryan - 6'3" 310 - 25 years old - RFA in 2010
Dorell Scott - 6'4" 320 - 23 years old - Rookie

After Scott, they'll have to find a possible fourth DT for the rotation from Willie Williams, Antwon Burton, and Michael Marquardt, or go out and sign someone who gets cut during camp. I really like those top three, but the depth is less than palatable.

Defensive End:

Chris Long - 6'4" 284 - 24 years old - Signed through 2012 (Voided 2013)
Leonard Little - 6'3" 263 - 34 years old - FA in 2010
James Hall - 6'2" 280 - 32 years old - FA in 2010
Victor Adeyanju - 6'4" 280 - 26 years old - FA in 2010
Eric Moore - 6'4" 268 - 28 years old - FA in 2010
C.J. Ah You - 6'4" 275 - 26 years old - FA in 2010

There's enough depth here for the season, but look for the team to move on without Little after this season. And despite what some may say, Chris Long had a good season last year and should improve under Coach Spagnoulo.

Middle Linebacker:

James Laurinaitis - 6'3" 240 - 22 years old - Rookie
David Vobora - 6'1" 236 - 23 years old - ERFA in 2010

Laurinaitis lends stability, leadership, and legitimacy to the middle of our defense. He'll be a difference maker.

Outside Linebacker:

Will Witherspoon - 6'1" 240 - 28 years old - FA in 2012
Pisa Tinoisamoa - 6'1" 235 - 27 years old - FA in 2012
Chris Draft - 5'11" 232 - 33 years old - FA in 2010
Chris Chamberlain - 6'2" 226 - 23 years old - RFA in 2011

We've got good depth here and with the addition of Laurinaitis at MLB, we can now move Witherspoon back outside where he is a legitimate playmaker. Pisa is a bit of a weak link, but should improve with the upgrades at MLB and SLB. Nevertheless, look for the Rams to find a new WLB next year but it's not going to be on the top of the list since Pisa is locked up until 2012.

Cornerback:

Ron Bartell - 6'1" 205 - 27 years old - Signed through 2012
Tye Hill - 5'10" 185 - 26 years old - FA in 2010
Bradley Fletcher - 6'2" 200 - 22 years old - Rookie
Justin King - 6'0" 186 - 21 years old - RFA in 2011
Jonathan Wade - 5'10" 195 - 25 years old - RFA in 2010

After Wade, you'll see Marcus Brown and Eric Butler. This isn't the fanciest of units, but the addition of Fletcher's size could help a ton when going up against the giant receivers in our division. Then again, if the defensive line can put adequate pressure on the quarterback, then you make the job of the DBs that much easier.

Strong Safety:

James Butler - 6'3" 215 - 26 years old - Signed through 2012
Todd Johnson - 6'1" 200 - 30 years old - FA in 2011
David Roach - 6'2" 215 - 23 years old - ERFA in 2010

The addition of Butler to the Defensive backfield should greatly help out the CBs. He was great under Spags last year and looks to continue that success.

Free Safety:

O.J. Atogwe - 5'11" 211 - 27 years old - FA in 2010
Eric Bassey - 6'1" 200 - 26 years old - RFA in 2010
Craig Dahl - 6'1" 207 - 23 years old - FA in 2010

We should be expecting a lot out of the duo of Atogwe and Butler this season. Those two make our Defensive backfield legit. Atogwe is franchised this season. Look for the Rams to lock him up next offseason (hopefully before the offseason).

So, there you have it. This is the roster as it stands today. I'd still like to see a D-Lineman who's been cut to fill out the rotation along, and you all know how I feel about Warrick Dunn.

Next season, look for the Rams to add a top tier Quarterback (Lefevour? Please?), a Tight End, a WLB (maybe), a DL, CB, and a big Receiver. They could possibly find the Linebacker, Receiver, and D-Lineman through free agency. They'll also have to address Atogwe at some point.

Bottom line is, this isn't done. This team has been improved, but we had a long ways to go. This is a great start and the team is extremely young and there is talent emerging in the right areas.

Wrapping up the Rams 2009 draft

VanRam — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:29:02 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

7 months ago: Baylor's Jason Smith gestures after he was selected as the second overall pick by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall, Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

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The draft is over for the Rams, seven rounds, seven picks. They addressed some needs with good players at high picks, and took a few raw prospects to finish it out. We'll spend more time parsing the results down the road, by days and years. My biggest takeaway is that they strengthened both the offensive and the defensive lines, a big need.

The high picks, though not necessarily exciting and leaving some room for debate, filled huge holes on the Rams starting roster with players that are widely expected to be instant contributors and grow into core veterans.

The first three rounds went like this, with comment:

R1, #2 - OT Jason Smith: There's some grumbling about this one, with fans divided between OT, Curry and Sanchez. Ultimately, though, given the glaring weakness that the Rams line has been and a key cog available at this spot, that grades out at that spot (in this draft), this pick made sense. Smith and Jason Brown will be the leaders of this young unit, holding their fellow linemen accountable for their play and giving their best on every down, on that there doesn't seem to be much room for argument. Smith might have to start on the right side, a la Jordan Gross in Carolina, to hone his trade, but he could just as easily top Barron for the LT job.

R2, #35 - MLB James Launinaitis: Maualuga had his fans with this pick, but the Rams went with the three-time (or two?) All American from Ohio State, and now have a guy who can instantly contribute, filling gaps, flowing to the ball and making their run defense better. He's also good in coverage, which will help the backfield.

R3, #66 - CB Bradley Fletcher: This pick turned some heads. I was kind of hoping for D.J. Moore here, but the new direction of the Rams defense calls for physical, aggressive corners...a good quality to have in a division featuring some big receivers. The story from inside the war room is that the Rams think Fletcher is ahead of where Justin King was when they drafted him last year, and King was one of camp's surprises until a toe injury sent him to IR for the year. Could we see him at nickel some this year? With his skills, he's an interesting player for blitz packages too.

R4, #103 - DT Dorell Scott: Besides a MLB, the Rams defense needed a big body tackle to play at the nose position. At 312 lbs, Scott can still add 10-15 lbs, which will help him tie-up double blockers. This is something the front four needs, badly, and it allows Carriker (who really needs to have a good season) to line up over a single guard and moves Clifton Ryan out of the NT position and back to an UT role. Scott dropped on draft boards with a slow start to his senior season, but the entire Clemson team struggled, resulting in a coaching change that brought out the player who really shined in his second and third seasons. This is a position that they didn't need to draft early on, and Scott should be able to be part of the rotation at DT right away. I like this pick, and along with Laurinaitis, it really should solidify the front seven.

And here's where a theme develops...the Rams start taking some raw prospects that need a little bit of refining to be a complete player. That's what you want in these rounds, where you can't count on getting ready-made starters to fill needs.

R5, #160 - WR Brooks Foster: What the Rams really need at WR is a true #1, a dynamic playmaker. Those guys were gone by the time their second round pick rolled around (I think they needed a MLB more). Foster's a fine pick for the 5th round, where you're getting guys that you hope can develop, at least to provide depth. Foster is physical and joins the ranks of the Rams possession receivers, like Burton, Robinson, Stanley, etc. Like I said before, I think they'll still need to add an experienced WR before the season, and weight their options in free agency and the draft next year to get the kind of #1 guy they need.

R6, #196 - QB Keith Null: A little more perplexing... Why? Did the Rams really need a QB this bad? I know they're not looking for a starter in the 6th round, but they might have been able to get this guy off the street. He played under Ryan Leaf, but at least with a 6th round pick he won't achieve Leaf's notoriety. I think they got a third QB who fits their West Coast system, fits better than Berlin, probably. He's a good passer, except deep. His upside is a competent backup in an offensive system like this.

R7, #211 - RB Chris Ogbonnaya: Giving bloggers and fans a name they'll struggle with each time they try to spell it, the Rams took a RB who has skills as a runner and receiver. He just never got to show them much in Texas' offense...except against Missouri. He could be a bit better than Kenneth Darby and a make Brian Leonard expendable at some point. Change of pace back. This is a good pick for the seventh round.

So, that's the draft, solid if a little unspectacular. They solidified their offensive and defensive lines with legitimate players, and I like that. I maybe would have liked to see another LB in the later rounds...like maybe the 6th, but I don't have too many quibbles with it now.

Winding down the draft, open thread, last rounds

VanRam — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:43:54 -0000

I stepped away for a bit, and came back to find that the Rams drafted a receiver.

North Carolina's Brooks Foster seems to have some raw talent...and keeping with the theme of the Rams picks after round two, he's got skills, but needs some good coaching to help put it all together.

Sounds like he might be good insurance should Laurent Robinson not work out. Hopefully he puts it together with the Rams in the next couple seasons. I still think they may have to find a veteran WR on a short-term deal for this season. Nothing bank-breaking, just a good compliment to play in the new offense and pair with Avery and the possession guys behind him.

The Rams pick again soon for the sixth round. It's looking like QB isn't on the menu this year, which is fine. The 2010 draft should have plenty of first round talent at the position.

No trades for the Rams so far, but the day isn't over.

Here's a video of Foster in action

Here's an April 12 report from the Tar Heel Times that had Foster moving up boards.

Much of the attention around UNC's NFL prospects has surrounded Hakeem Nicks, who was still listed as a first-round draft pick (by the New York Giants) in Mel Kiper's most recent mock draft. But according to the Sporting News Today, Brooks Foster is also starting to earn some attention. "After being regarded as a fifth- or sixth-round prospect at the end of the season, he has moved up to a potential third- or fourth-rounder."

The Future of the Gimmick Pass at UNC

T.H. — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 19:39:27 -0000

Cooter Arnold's first quarter touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks was the fourth attempt by a non-quarterback for the Heels this season and the third completion. I'm mildly curious as to whether Butch Davis and John Shoop are going to continue to throw such plays into the mix as they recruit more talent (with all the inherit controversies involved) and presumably become more of a favored team and less of an upstart.

There's one reason why I wouldn't expect to see so many halfback passes next season, and that's the guy on the other end of it. It helps to compensate a poor passer with an excellent receiver; three of the four intended passes have been to Hakeem Nicks, and the fourth to Brooks Foster. And if you're looking for such plays in the future, expect them to come on first or second down, within ten or fifteen yards from midfield. They typically happen in the first half on short passes that try to get Nicks behind a pulled up secondary looking to stop the run. And there's no guarantee who'll be throwing; Cooter Arnold, Bobby Rome and Brandon Tate all had completions through the air this season. Rome went for 44 yards to Foster against Maryland, and Tate for 12 to Nicks against Miami.