SB Nation - Marvin Austin

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

• The Clemson/South Carolina game features two of the best 3-4 outside linebacker prospects in Ricky Sapp (Clemson) and Eric Norwood (South Carolina). Both are seniors and having good seasons. Norwood might be the most-ready college player for a 3-4 outside linebacker spot, but Sapp's physical tools give him more upside.

• The North Carolina/North Carolina State game also features top 3-4 linebacker prospects in junior Bruce Carter (North Carolina) and senior Willie Young (NC State). Quietly, Young is putting together a solid year with 12 tackles for a loss and eight sacks. Carter is much stronger and is good at handling the run and the pass.

As mentioned previously here at MTD, North Carolina has perhaps the best group of junior talent on defense in the nation. Tackle Marvin Austin is full of athleticism. His numbers may be down, but he consistently faces double teams. Middle linebacker Quan Sturdivant leads the team in tackles with 71 and an impressive 12 tackles for loss. Strong safety Deunta Williams is a big hitter with six interceptions. Cornerback Kendric Burney might be short, but he's a playmaker.

• The key players in the Wake Forest/Duke game are interior defensive linemen. Wake's Boo Robinson is an underrated pocket pusher and Duke's Vince Oghobaase is incredibly athletic.

• Syracuse running back Delone Carter has injury problems throughout his career, but he's been a solid player this season. He's only a junior, but someone to keep an eye on. In the last three weeks, he's rushed for 339 yards and two scores.

• While teammate Carlos Dunlap has had a very disappointing season, Jermaine Cunningham has shown to be a solid contributor. He might not be a starter at the next level, but he can be a solid contributing backup because he can get after the passer and is decent against the run.

• Ole Miss running back/wide receiver Dexter McCluster has been one of the most buzzy-worthy player the last two weeks. Against Tennessee and LSU, he rushed for a combined 430 yards and four touchdowns. He's very undersized, but could be the next Darren Sproles.

• The LSU defense has plenty of NFL players, so it will be one of the biggest challenges Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett faces all season. Third nationally in pass efficiency, Mallett has 3,195 yards passing and 28 touchdowns this season. The redshirt sophomore seems ready for the NFL right now. A big game against the Tigers today, and maybe he should enter.

• Hey, remember Eric Berry? You know, the Tennessee safety. One of the best players in the nation? His pass defense numbers – two interceptions, six pass breakups – might be down this year, but he's played more against the run. This is just a friendly reminder that the junior is still one of the top five players in the nation.

2010 prospect watch (DT edition) - Nov. 17th

3k — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:12:25 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Marvin Austin is a microphone magnet. Once he gets improved tutelage and less focus from opposing offensive lines, NFL quarterbacks could be Marvin Austin magnets.

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There were a couple lessons to be learned from Sunday's game against the Saints; IMO, one of the most important was that our defensive front is unable to pressure QBs on their own. As to whether that is mainly due to the defensive ends or tackles is a fair debate. What's not open to debate is the fact that there are some very talented DT prospects in the 2010 NFL draft. While there's not too many games left for some of these future professionals, there's enough time for some fluctuation among each other and on big boards as a whole.

For reference, here's my QB board from Oct. 6th and my most recent mock draft. Here's how my DT board looks in mid-November (* denotes underclassmen, parenthetical links are for scouting reports):

1 - Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska (ESPN)

First, I feel I have to help out Van here - it's en-dom-ah-ken soo. Of course, if you would rather call him damn-you-Kong!, feel free. Name aside, Suh is an absolute terror. He's stronger than his 6'3"-295 lb. frame suggests, and he's incredibly quick. Less than two weeks ago, the Cornhuskers faced off against Oklahoma; Suh made the most out of one of the bigger stages he's played on. He anchored a line that brought pressure on OU QB Landry Jones all day, resulting in a Cutleresque 5 picks. For good measure, he blocked a FG too.

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 27 at Colorado , 3:30pm ET (ABC)

Rest of the board after the fold.

2 - Gerald McCoy*, Oklahoma (ESPN , MTD)

McCoy has been disrupting offenses for three years, missing just one game due to a hand injury two years ago. I've seen him at the top of many a DT board, and it's hard to argue; he explodes out of his stance. Once he does so, he's got a full menu of moves that he executes very well: swim, power rip, spin, and even his power rush, though that last one still needs some work. Really, that's his one flaw is raw power, and juxtaposed against Suh, it's even more evident. Still, he's been a model student-athlete at Oklahoma, acting as president of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, serving as a team captain, and avoiding the kind of off-field troubles that many of his peers seem to enjoy.

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 28 vs. #12 Oklahoma St., 12:30pm ET

3 - Marvin Austin*, North Carolina

Austin heads up the second tier of DTs right now, IMO. He's got a great skill set that applies to both run and pass defense, but he's part of a very funky D-line, that includes two other solid DTs (Cam Thomas & Aleric Mullins) and a 375-lb. DE (Earl Wilson). I think that he could be a great pick in a 4-3 or even as a 3-4 DE. His biggest flaw is his technique; he's still a bit raw, but with a coach to mentor him (Spagnuolo?), he could be very successful in the NFL.

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 21 at Boston College, 12:00pm ET (ESPN2)

4 - Arthur Jones, Syracuse (ESPN, MTD)

Jones is the first real injury plagued prospect on this board. He tore a chest muscle working out this spring, and he injured his knee in the Pittsburgh game earlier this month. Still, what he was able to prove in his 4+ seasons at Syracuse was plenty to go off of. He's a very good run-stopping DT who competes every play. and he succeeded from time to time facing double teams. He's not a strong pass rusher, but that shouldn't hurt his draft stock. Plenty of teams would love to get his run stuffing skills on their lines.

Next notable evaluation: N/A

5 - Terrence Cody, Alabama (ESPN)

Terrence Cody is large human being. At 6'3" and anywhere from 370-400 lbs., he obviously presents a huge roadblock for offensive lines to deal with. Since transferring to Bama last year, he's been a fan favorite for obvious reasons. Still, you have to wonder if he can play anything but a 3-4 NT in the NFL. He's slow (in NFL terms. For his size, he's blazing fast. Try and find someone around 400 lbs. who can A.) run and B.) run anywhere near as fast as Cody), and he's sloppy. His technique revolves around the power rush, and that includes his stints on the offensive side of the ball as a FB or RB where Alabama has used him from time to time. The bottom line is, a body this big will be in demand, especially for 3-4 defenses who need a true NT.

Next notable evaluation: Dec. 5 vs. Florida (SEC Championship - neutral site), 4:00pm ET (TBD)

6 - Jared Odrick, Penn St. (ESPN)

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 21 at Michigan St., 3:30pm ET (ABC)

7 - Vince Oghobaase, Duke (ESPN)

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 21 at Miami, 12:00pm ET (ESPNU)

8 - Brian Price*, UCLA

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 28 at USC, 10:00pm ET

9 - Dan Williams, Tennessee

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 21 vs. Vanderbilt, 7:00pm ET (ESPNU)

10 - Geno Atkins, Georgia (ESPN)

Next notable evaluation: Nov. 21 vs. Kentucky, 7:45pm ET (ESPN2)

Poll

Vote for the next big board position...NOW!

QB (v2.0)

58 votes

WR

59 votes

TE

5 votes

OT

6 votes

DE

42 votes

OLB

20 votes

CB

10 votes

200 votes | Poll has closed

Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Rod Owens, left, and Beau Reliford celebrate Owens' touchdown against North Carolina during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. Florida State won 30-27. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Welcome to another edition of Florida State Film Review! For the 2nd week in a row, I'm not breaking down the defense on a play-by-play basis because they are so poorly coached I cannot discern what they are attempting to do from play to play. Maybe I'll look at the defense Tuesday, but it is my honest evaluation that this defense is one of the worst in the country, even when adjusting for competition level. Instead, let's discuss one of the top offenses in the country. Today we have 7 exciting film clips and some photos as well. Continue reading and check it out!

And of course, if you enjoyed this, spread it around to your friends! We recently hit One Million visitors, and pieces like this are a reason why. Our staff puts a lot of work into these, and all 'Nole fans should see them. So spread it around.

Let's review just how impressive FSU's victory was:

Florida State traveled to face off against one of the finest defenses and worst offenses in the country. North Carolina's defense came into the game ranked 10th, their offense 99th. FSU's offense entered the game ranked 8th, their defense 101st. Florida State knew coming into the game that reaching 24 points would be a huge accomplishment against the ferocious North Carolina defense that features multiple future early NFL draft picks. It would be up to FSU's defense to make UNC's horrible offense look, well, horrible. Of course, FSU's defense allowed UNC to roll up 17 1st half points and to score another TD on their first 2nd half drive. FSU was down 24-6 to one of college football's best defenses.

And while FSU was setting up plays for the 2nd half and feeling out what could work, FSU's horrific defense let UNC's pitiful offense run up and down the field.

Let's use a quick chart to put this in perspective. Just how good was FSU's performance? To find out, you must compare it to the other teams who played the Heels:

Team v. UNC's Defense -ranked 10th	at UCONN	ECU	at Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Rank of Offense	49	62	2	56	8
Plays	61	61	77	68	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.2	3.8	6.7
Rushes	31	28	65	37	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7	2.3
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31	41
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8	9.2

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-Downs are not included as they are not a competitive play.
Carolina's defense hasn't allowed anyone to gain more than 5.2 yards per play. FSU put up 6.7 yards per play. Doesn't seem like much? Think again. Florida State gained 30% more yards per play than anyone else had on the Tar Heel's defense. And they did it in North Carolina, on a Thursday night.
1st team to crack 410 yards against UNC’s defense (438), and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA. Georgia Tech had 406, but they did it in Atlanta, and did it on 85 plays. FSU did it on 15 fewer plays. That's about 20% fewer snaps for FSU, but a lot more yards and as shown above, a lot more yards per play.
1st team to put 30 points on UNC’s defense and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA.

So yes, on a Thursday night, Florida State went into the house of one of the best defenses in the country, got down by 18 points by allowing one of the worst offenses in the nation to set season-highs. Then with UNC knowing they would have to pass, they did just that. And did it again and again and again. Florida State obliterated the even the worst numbers that Carolina's stellar defense had allowed all season. The 'Noles put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else had against the Tar Heels, and they did it in Chapel Hill, on a Thursday Night. The credit goes to Jimbo Fisher's halftime adjustments and Christian Ponder's once again excellent play.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels boxscore (Note, this isn't adjusted for sacks of kneeldowns, etc)

What did we learn?

If you don't think FSU is one of the best 5 offenses in the country, you need to wake up. Think a bit smarter and realize the opponent quality when you look at the production. FSU didn't get cupcakes this year.

No offense has scored more points against Miami than FSU.
Florida State's 54 points against BYU is 20 more than the next closest effort by any other team against the Cougars.
Fisher's offense dropped 44 on Georgia Tech; no other team has even cracked 35 on the Jackets, and the one who cracked 30 was Mississippi State who did it in garbage time (31 points).
And you saw the figures from above. FSU put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else did against UNC. And of course they set new season highs for points allowed and yards allowed by UNC.

I'll give a brief overview of the drive and include clips or pictures where relevant.

Drive #1

McMahon continues to have high snaps. 1st play of game. Also, poor pitch relationship between givens and thomas on 2nd down reverse (loss of 10). 3rd and 18 bubble is safe. possible big play and no disaster

Drive #2

Motion Jermaine Thomas out wide is good, gives ponder coverage look, goes from I-form to basically 4 wide. UNC played the spread sets very very conservatively early, counting on their front-4. They had no idea how to react to Thomas motioning wide from I-form. Nice use of pistol formation, lots of things happening. Bubble look to strong, slant weakside w/ Thomas also releasing weak. Hard to align v. pistol.

Then FSU comes out in I-formation twins, carolina has 8 in the box, clearly cover-3 as fsu motions to the weakside. This is cool:

Run-action holds the linebackers, and Zebrie Sanders and David Spurlock slip out to block for Bert reed. This is an excellent use of personnel as FSU is a great screen team due to their athletic offensive linemen. Sander's doesn't nail his block, but this is a very good play to have in the repertoire and is an appropriate counter to teams running lots of cover-3 with 8 in the box against standard personnel. This is a play that fsu can hit for long yardage on 1st downs. Also, look for the Noles to run it to Datko/Hudson's side later.

The bubble screen that reed fumbled/ didn't catch was the correct read by ponder. Owens just missed his block. That's not a call, but rather a check by ponder. against teams playing very loose cover-3 with 8 in the box against twins, fsu will need to continue to throw these. it's simply a regulator.

Bert Reed had a false start which is just not acceptable. poor concentration by the wideouts in the 1st half. (missed block by Owens, false start, etc). And the drive stalls. Pretty good drive against UNC's D.

Drive # 3

(Ponder sacked & fumbled). Arm might have been going forward. Spurlock lunged, and Zebrie got beat to the inside. More on them later. Datko also allowed pressure there. Not a good play, but remember, UNC was going to get a few of those.

Drive #4:

Zone read, very well blocked by 4 of 5, but spurlock not a great cut and his man makes a phenomenal crawling play to trip up thomas. Play had nice potential. Oh and Thomas didn't run real hard on it. Loss of 1. Here's the photo:

The man circled in yellow crawls at light-speed and makes the tackle.

Then FSU hits a 60+ yard play that is called back for an illegal block. Middle screen picture:

Just a step beyond the line. play isn't a penalty if he is 18 inches back. Negates gain of 65 yards. The rule is clear, you cannot block downfield for a pass thrown beyond the line of scrimmage.

Drive # 5:

Pistol Thomas for 4, inside zone. 5 good blocks, held the backside. drew unc offisdes. picked up 2nd and 2 with a 3 yard outside zone run to the right. good blocks, some movement. bert reed good effort on block but tough to block a big backer. Nice protection on the 13 yard slant to Fortson who did a nice job to get the YAC. Option look from off-set pistol, Ponder gets 3 but doesn't pitch the ball like he should (this might be fake option). Fortson has a bad drop on a slant. FSU has to have that. He's open, he's a big body, and he must catch the damn football. drew them offsides again, so from 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 2. Ponder hesitated and didn't hit owens on the 3rd and 2 rollout, his scramble didn't get there. punt.

Drive # 6

Pistol, Bubble. Slightly late as Ponder couldn't grip the ball. Excellent throw and catch on a tight window slant to Owens who gets 8 more yards and gets out of bounds. Fake draw fake end around and toss it to givens for 2 or 3. Good play to show it and kep them honest. Then came a beautiful play: JIMBO FISHER SMASH CLIP.

This is known as the smash. The outside receiver runs a curl and the slot receiver runs a corner route. The QB reads the defender. If the defender plays the curl, the QB throws the Corner. If the defender plays off, the QB throws the Curl. It's quite the cat and mouse game between QB and cornerback, and Ponder plays to win. Beautiful ball and great job getting the foot down by Bert Reed.

So 1st and goal. Reliford misses his block on the qb wrap. in any case, Commack lined up incorrectly, so even if FSU had scored, he would have nullified it. Lack of attention to detail. Coaches were livid. On 2nd and goal, they had the delay. Why? Apparently Bobby didn't realize last year's clock rules, thought clock stopped after a penalty. It doesn't. Assistant coaches can't call timeout, only the head coach, and he was nowhere to be seen. The FSU played it safer and got the FG before half.

At the half, I did not think FSU's offense was getting owned. They were facing a very good defense that had made a few great plays and fsu's offense was just a hair off. the unperfect cut block, a high snap, a drop, a receiver running inside instead of out, etc. There was no absurd physical domination going on. For the most part, FSU had seen a lot of formations to stop the run and the deep ball, giving FSU the short stuff to the outside, which Ponder patiently took. Also, Fisher was setting up some stuff for later.

Florida State began to pound the flats. They got into the Pistol and ran the ball with their zone blocking schemes. They made UNC make tackles in space. They did everything to negate UNC's great size. Amazingly, they repeatedly ran 5-man protections (no tight ends or backs blocking) and did very well with it. The line beautifully handled UNC's defensive line in pass protection and gave Ponder the time he needed to through all of his reads.

Drive # 7

Start out with an inside zone to the weak side. Spurlock doesn't get his cutoff. Pryor runs hard for 1 or 2. Swing to Lonnie sets up 3rd and 3. Throw was low. On 3rd and 3, Thomas can't come up with a well placed throw to the outside, though it was a tough catch. Punt coming.

Drive # 8

Came out in 4-wide gun, protection was excellent, Carolina played soft coverage, easy 7 yards to Owens on a hitch. On 2nd and 5, FSU runs their staple, the Smash, and Ponder overthrows it. It was open, Easterling ran a good route. Maybe the only blatantly bad throw Ponder made. You can see Ponder tell Easterling "My Bad." On 3rd and 5 UNC drops 8 into coverage and Ponder hits Owens on a 7 yard hitch. Good patience, good route. No pass pressure from UNC at all on the drive so far. 1-10 and FSU went high-tempo, Outside Zone run to Thomas from the Pistol. NIce blocks from Hudson and McMahon. UNC's front is very good and to get a 10 yard run there was very good. Thomas seemed to run harder after midway through the 2nd. Beautiful flare throw to Thomas for 9. No pressure from UNC, and they are clearly worried about the deep outside now. The middle of the field will be open later in the game. Foreshadowing duh duh duh. On 2nd and 1, Datko gets beat inside and Thompson can't pick up the first down from the gun. Datko's excellent in pass protection but he sometimes struggles in run blocking. On 3rd and short, FSU doesn't screw around and they quickly sneak for the first. On the 1st, FSU is in the gun and there's a lot to see here. Let's go to the tape:

UNC switched into a 3 man line with 4 linebacker types. They zone blitz at the snap, sending 5 rushers and dropping 2 people into coverage, a linebacker and a lineman. FSU's motion is like their 2-back sweep, but UNC is in full-blitz mode and they do not care. Thomas gets an incredible block, but there's one too many to the right side with the overload. FSU's line is trying to shield left but the blitz is coming from the right. Ponder eludes the guy and throws to Fortson who has done a nice job of beating his man and coming back for the ball, but he drops it. That's his 2nd crucial drop this game. Remember too that he has the sloppy screen route leading to the penalty.

So 2nd and 10. Remember when I said the middle of the field would be open later because FSU had run the smash route so well? Yeah, that's now:

Ponder identifies the cover-2, you can see the checks he makes at the line. The 3 middle defenders drop into their zones, while the two safeties each play a deep half. The linebacker does a nice job to funnel Reed to the sideline, expecting the Smash route (Reed running the corner). But this is no corner route. Reed runs the square in, and Ponder rifles it. It's not a great throw, but considering the dropsies the wideouts have had, it was nice of Reed to catch this one. The window between the linebackers is open and you can see it. Also, the protection is great. Nobody near Ponder.

On the resulting 1st down, FSU expects the safety to cheat to the inside more, because of the previous play. And he's just not cheated enough. The ball is thrown a bit high and the coverage is good. Incomplete. On 2nd down, FSU runs the givens end around action, fakes it to Thomas, looks at Givens, but it's a screen! It gets 7 or 8 yards and I like the call. Thought Hudson released a bit early and was overanxious. You know he wants that cut on that corner again. On 3rd and 3, FSU calls the QB draw. The look is crucial:

Notice how the linebackers are peeling to defend the bubble screen to either side. Ponder gets an easy 10.

On 1st and goal, Easterling can't cleanly catch the bubble but does get 1 or 2 yards. The 2nd and goal is 5 wide double slants. Good routes and a good throw for the TD, 13-24.

Drive # 9:

98 yard TD to Owens. This is a hitch-n-go set up by the hitch after hitch FSU threw earlier. It was a 6 man protection, and UNC rushed with 5. Excellent protection and a nice throw from the end zone.

Drive # 10:

Ponder starts to abuse UNC. They tried to cover Bert Reed with a backup linebacker, and that's just not possible. Perfect pass pro. Fortson gets called for a hold on a bubble to Easterling (I think Easty is on his way back, by the way). Bad luck on a middle screen to Easterling as UNC twisted into it. On a 3rd and 7, Ponder hits Owens for a 15 yard post. No idea what coverage UNC was playing. I suspect that backup linebacker blew the coverage. Here you go:

On the next play, UNC is really desperate to make something happen. They are hyper-aggressive. FSU had done a good job running from the Pistol, and Fisher made a masterful call: Pistol play-action Owens Deep Out:

Watch how hard everyone from UNC pursues what they think is a run play. Ponder had his choice of 3 open receivers. The next play is a 9 yard inside zone out of the Pistol. McMahon does an okay job to hold his line. The Thompson runs again for 9, same play, just flipped. Pretty simple stuff.

On the next play, however, McMahon gets blown away and it leads to a 6 yard loss. Drive killer? Maybe.

So on 2nd and 13, Fisher dials up a GREAT play. Throwback tight end screen. FSU executes it perfectly, but Reliford forgets one thing- to use his blockers. He cuts outside and is impatient. Look at what could happen had he been patient:

Bert made a great catch to get FSU into better field goal range, and Hopkins hits it, 23-24.

Drive # 11:

Down, 27-23, Ponder hits Fortson on a deep skinny off a beautiful double release, off play-action. Then Ponder to Fortson on the auto-rollout w/ the off-sides for 10. Then the go-ahead TD:

Initially, I thought Reliford was Ponder's 4th read. In actuality, he seems to be his 2nd read. Ponder's pump fake makes 3 people cover Fortson on the skinny post and nobody is on Reliford for the wide open wheel route. This throw is more difficult than you probably realize. Ponder throws it from the opposite hash. Even though Reliford is essentially a basketball player, even he can catch this ball. The protection was very good as well. Kudos, offensive line.

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Pistol Play-action bootleg to Reed for 4. UNC expected run. Corner remembered being burned by Owens before so he peeled off deep. Reed nice job to stay inbounds. Bubble to Owens for 5.5 Ponder sneak 1st down.

I-Formation, end around action to Chris Thompson for 1. Didn't like getting into the I-formation here. Not at all. One of the lone criticisms I have. Then FSU gets back in the run and runs a great play:

This is essentially play-action QB wrap. FSU is pulling the right tackle, #77 Zebrie Sanders. Ponder fakes the lead sweep, and is going to keep the ball. Excellent job by sanders to blast #52, who was certainly in the backfield much sooner than he expected. Excellent reaction. The rest is Ponder getting 6-7 yards to build momentum before getting the 1st down, which killed more clock.

Back in the I-formation, don't like it. Thompson for 3. FSU not a good I-formation team. 2nd and 7, qb draw for 2. 3rd and 5, QB draw from 5 wide. Eh. Punt, UNC has little time and they can't throw.

Overall Review

Ponder is simply amazing. I'll have an article on him tomorrow. The only QB who is on his level right now is Jimmy Claussen. Fisher called him the best QB in the country. Jake Locker has better physical talents but a ten-cent head right now. McCoy doesn't quite have the wheels or the arm and McCoy looks to the sidelines for his checks. Ponder calls his own game and checks. Tebow might be playing himself out of the draft. Mallet has the huge arm but not the accuracy or intelligence. And Bradford has a bum wing. Sam is brittle. Fisher gives him 3 plays and he checks the offense into the most favorable before the snap. That's a huge advantage. Few teams in college can do that. Ponder showed good arm strength and seems to be all the way back from his knee injury. His throws were on the money at a ridiculous clip. He took very few risks. Nary a ball was close to being intercepted.

It was a miraculous comeback for Florida State and the star was Christian Ponder. The Junior quarterback went 33-40 for 395 yards and 3 Touchdowns with zero interceptions. He was pinpoint and could have easily thrown for 450 yards had he not been victimized by 3 drops and an offensive pass interference call. Ponder might be the best quarterback in the country. You'd be hard-pressed to find one who is playing better. Considering the opponent and situation, Ponder's performance was one for the ages. He posted a QB rating of 190 (NFL equivalent of 133). Ponder finished the game 16-16 for 236 yards.

Jermaine Thomas should probably get the ball more. He has good hands and does a nice job running, but he and all of the backs must run harder. Still, Thomas never lost yards. Chris Thompson for the most part ran hard in the 2nd half. Both backs did a nice job in their blitz pickup. I am not impressed those two or Pryor when it comes to run blocking. I pretty much hate Pryor in the fullback spot. Fisher knows more than me, by a ton, but he needs to quit using Pryor at fullback. He's just not a good player at that spot.

Receivers Rod Owens and Bert Reed has big games. Owens with his 9 catch 199 yard night. Owens was targeted 10 times. He caught 9 balls. 8 of those were successes. 7 of the successes went for a 1st down or a touchdown. His catches were meaningful. Reed was targeted 10 times. He caught 8 balls. 5 of the 8 were not what I consider a "success", but some were tough yards. 3 were very successful. He also made some very tough catches. 74 yards total. Reed also had a false start! Easterling wasn't thrown to much, but he did draw coverage and did his job. His TD catch was nice, and he didn't flinch much knowing he could get hit big. Fortson showed his flashes of brilliance but balanced those with some untimely drops. He caught 4 balls for 56 yards. 3 of the catches were very big. But he was also called for a hold, dropped 2 balls, and his imprecise route on his middle screen was inexcusable. Fortson can be a huge weapon and is the most talented offensive player outside Ponder, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

As for the offensive line. I thought they played well. Again, consider what they were asked to do and against whom they were asked to perform. UNC's front-7 is exceptional. Anyone watching them play could see that. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2. That's a stellar 4.8% sack rate allowed. FSU trailed for 55 of the 60 minutes in this game, and UNC knew they would pass and pass. That makes the line's play all the more impressive. Oh, and FSU often left no backs or tight ends in to protect. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is always technically sound and plays a good game. His pass protection was good. I bet he graded out highly. On the inside zone play to his side, Datko does a nice job of influencing his man and then removing him. He's not impressive physically and needs to be more aggressive, but there isn't a better true sophomore I've seen. Rodney Hudson is rock solid. I love to watch him play. He'll play a perfect game before all is over. Center Ryan McMahon played a much better game than I expected. His pass protection was good. Spurlock is aggressive as always. He mixes great blocks with whiffs. I give him high marks for his work against 1st round lock Marvin Austin. Zebrie continues to improve and you should remember he is a true sophomore. I wish I could give Sanders some of Spurlock's aggressiveness. Sanders must get better at cutting the backside on the run plays.

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Sara D. Davis - AP

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Florida State and North Carolina might be having somewhat disappointing seasons, but there will be plenty of talent on display.

That talent will particularly be found on the defensive side of the ball.

North Carolina has one of the better defensive duos in the nation with junior Marvin Austin and senior Cam Thomas. Austin is somewhat similar to Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, just a notch below him in every category.

Thomas has nose tackle size and could be a rotational defensive tackle. He might be only a two-down player at the next level, but is serviceable.

Arguably the Tar Heels' most talented defensive player is junior inside linebacker Quan Sturdivant. He's big, fast and already has 7.5 tackles for loss this season.

On the outside, junior Bruce Carter is a very good pass rush. His numbers are down this season because teams have been sending an extra blocker at him or chipping him.

Almost every North Carolina defender has great size and athleticism. Junior free safety Deunta Williams is no exception. He gets after the ball aggressively and supports the run nicely.

And he might not be draft eligible until 2011, but end Robert Quinn is a terror. He has seven sacks this season and 14.5 tackles for loss. He might have the makings of a future top 10 pick.

Florida State's top players are pretty widely known by now. Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson was highly touted by Mel Kiper Jr. at the start of the season, but he hasn't really lived up to the hype. His awareness is poor, but he has good quickness and agility.

Senior outside linebacker Dekoda Watson is a solid cover-2 candidate, but he might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams player.

Junior Rodney Hudson might be the best guard in the nation. He's athletic for an interior linemen and really understands leverage.

Quietly, Florida State junior quarterback Christian Ponder has emerged as a solid signal caller. None of his measurables will blow people away, but he's having a tremendous season. He's completing 68 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns to just one interception.

With all the talented junior quarterbacks Ponder gets overlooked. Take note tonight at 8 p.m. on ESPN. He could be a sleeper for next season.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Browse more photos »

Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

2010 NFL mock draft

Mocking Dan — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:15:55 -0000

Here is the first half of my mock draft. The other half will go up tonight after I get home from work.

Quick note: I swapped Sam Bradford in the draft for Washington quarterback Jake Locker. The reason was mainly following an email exchange with 3k from Turf Show Times. And listening to Bradford's recent press conference, it sounds like he's ready to go pro.

For the draft order, I used the one put together by ejrulz in his mock draft.

1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
The Rams have no direction on offense. Taking a quarterback first overall would provide as much. Bradford has only played a half this season, but listening to a recent press conference, he sounds like a man ready to go pro.

2. Cleveland Browns - Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee
The Browns might have Abram Elam currently at strong safety, but Berry looks like a player who comes along once a decade. The Browns need help on the right side of their line, but Berry is hard to pass up.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Whether it's Suh or Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the Buccaneers need help along the defensive line. Suh has been arguably the best player in college football this season and will be a difference maker immediately.

4. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Branden Albert has been only average, and that's not good enough for a left tackle. Bulaga has the ability to be an elite player. If his health checks out fine, there's no reason to think he won't be a top five selection.

5. Tennessee Titans - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Clearly the Tennessee has skipped a beat this season without Albert Haynesworth. Many considered McCoy an early first rounder had he come out following his redshirt sophomore season. He's a quick, penetrating defensive end with great character.

6. San Francisco 49ers (via Carolina) - Taylor Mays, FS, USC
This is just a great fit for San Francisco. He's the physical presence the team doesn't have in its secondary. Mays might conjure thoughts of Ronnie Lott for Niners fans.

7. Detroit Lions - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
This would be a tough spot for Detroit with the top two defensive tackles off the board. If that's the case, the team could reach a little bit to take the left tackle many expected them to this season.

8. Oakland Raiders - Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Lame Al Davis jokes aside, Dunlap is a great fit for the Raiders. Richard Seymour's contract is up at the end of the year and he's not expected to re-sign. Even with Seymour, a better pass rush is needed.

9. Buffalo Bills - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Really, is Trent Edwards the future of quarterbacking for Buffalo? The team seems to have settled on Demetrius Bell at left tackle and no outside linebackers are really worth a top 10 pick.

10. Seattle Seahawks - Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
It can be hard to justify taking a running back this early in the draft, but Dwyer has immense talent. Julius Jones is better as a second option and Edgerrin James has shown it's time for him to retire.

11. Miami Dolphins - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
While Miami could use a nose tackle or future pass rushing linebacker, Bryant could be the best receiver in the draft since Calvin Johnson. Being ruled ineligible shouldn't affect Bryant's draft stock.

12. Arizona Cardinals - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Williams is still a project at left tackle, but Mike Gandy has struggled for the Cardinals. At the least, Williams is an NFL-ready run blocker.

13. Washington Redskins - Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Clearly Redskins owner Dan Snyder is done with current starter Jason Campbell. The team tried to get Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. McCoy is a dependable passer who has better arm strength than people think.

14. San Diego Chargers - Damian Williams, WR, Southern California
The Chargers could be forced to replace receivers Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers after this season. Williams has emerged as a legit No. 1 receiver for the Trojans.

15. Houston Texans - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Everyone expected the Texans to take a difference maker in the secondary this year, and they didn't. Haden can get out position in pass coverage, but he's a great all-around corner.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida
Steelers fans might be convinced Lawrence Timmons is the future inside, but I am not. Good middle linebackers average more than three tackles a game. Spikes would be a steal here. And even if Timmons sticks at middle linebacker, James Farrior is 34.

17. Green Bay Packers - Ciron Black, OT, LSU
Black might not be the best left tackle, but he's the best one available in this scenario. The Packers clearly need help along the offensive line.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars - Morgan Burnett, SS, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think Tim Tebow should be the choice here, but the team has a better chance of winning immediately by filling other holes. Wide receiver is a possibility as well, but Mike Sims-Walker is having a breakout season.

19. Dallas Cowboys - Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
Since getting rid of Terrell Owens, justifiably, the Cowboys have lacked a dependable wide receiver. That's what LaFell would provide. He's not the fastest or the flashiest, but he gets the job done.

20. Atlanta Falcons - Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi
Thirty-four games into his career, it's official: Jamaal Anderson is a bust. He has two sacks, which won't cut it for a 4-3 end. Hardy, when motivated, is as good of a pass rusher as there is in the nation.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
Philadelphia's current group of outside linebackers feature a bunch of players who are only average. Kindle could be a sensation in the team's blitz-heavy scheme.

22. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Gresham's season-ending knee injury shouldn't stop a team from taking him in the first round. That's especially true if you consider that the Bengals' starting tight end is Daniel Coats.

23. New England Patriots - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
Whether they used him inside or outside, McClain could make a big impact for the Patriots. Other than Jerod Mayo and an aging Adalius Thomas, New England is somewhat light on linebacker talent.

24. Denver Broncos (via Chicago) - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
Cody would be the last piece the Broncos need to finish off the conversion to a 3-4. While I'm not the biggest fan of Cody's, the Broncos need someone in the middle to regularly take up multiple blockers.

25. New York Jets - Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
In the Jets' 3-4, Jones would get moved over to end, a position the team needs to address. Jones has the quickness and size to play end and would give coach Rex Ryan another good pressure guy.

26. San Francisco 49ers - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
Many expect San Francisco to take a quarterback, but Shaun Hill might be the kind of game manager coach Mike Singletary wants. Norwood would help a pass rush that's below-average from the linebacker spot.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
Tate is the kind of playmaking wide receiver the Ravens have never had. He can make big plays out of short passes and will be able to help on special teams.

28. Minnesota Vikings - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Ray Edwards is a free agent after the season and is average at best. Morgan has shown flashes of dominance this season. He can get after the passer or stay at home and handle the run.

29. New York Giants - Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins are facing free agency following this season and if both don't come back, tackle could be a big need. Austin has been inconsistent thus far, but has great talent. A coach like Tom Coughlin could harness it nicely.

30. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) - Charles Brown, OT, Southern California
The career of left tackle Walter Jones is winding down. Brown is a similar kind of offensive lineman who has good athleticism and drive. While safety and quarterback can be considered needs, no players seem worth this slot.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Selvish Capers, OT, West Virginia
Some project Capers to play left tackle, but he's been on the right side for the Mountaineers this season. Either spot he plays, the Colts could use him. Middle linebacker could be a need, but that is a position that traditionally be addressed later in the draft.

32. New Orleans Saints - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Outside linebacker and defensive tackle are the top needs for an overachieving Saints defense. Weatherspoon would be a perfect fit outside. He's a good tackler and can make up for the mistakes of teammates.

UNC Preview

BirdGT — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 12:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Butch Davis is 0-1 in ATL. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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The Tarholes... They haven't won in ATL since Mack Brown's last season in 1997. I almost hit Butch Davis on the field, last time we played the Tarholes in ATL. And 'cause of that we're gonna see a real shit show. Two teams trying to prove their worth. Both teams are struggling to find offensive identity. Both teams have NFL talent on the roster looking to improve scouts. Here's the breakdown.

Stat Stuff
Shaun Draughn is the key and flaw in the Tarheels offense. He carries the ball a ton but has no nose for the end zone. He has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season and last season only found the end zone 3 times in 198 rushes. Ryan Houston is the Heels goalline back that has scored all of their rushing touchdowns so far. Look for Draughn to move the ball down the field and Houston to come in and punch it in.

T.J. Yates statistically is on par with last season except in two major categories. He has been sacked more frequently (25.6% increase in sacks/game) and he is passing for less yards/completion. Essentially, his green offensive line is not giving him time to make the big plays and his receivers aren't making plays when they get the ball. Both factors are HUGE for GT on Saturday.

The defense for UNC is sick. They've only given up 198.7 yards per game - 52.3 yards on the ground per game! We will here Quan Sturdivant, Marvin Austin, etc. names on Sunday in a year or two. The team has 8 sacks and 26 tackles for loss on the season in only three games. This does not bode well for GT's struggling offensive line.

X Factors
No UNC receiver is having a Hakeem Nicks-type season. This is good. The ball is being distributed but really the gameplan should be focused on stopping Draughn who is accounting for over 25% of the Heels' offensive yardage (factoring out passing yardage).

Honestly, on offense GT needs to run the football successfully despite the Heels performance last year. The Heels gave up 141.8 yards rushing per game in losses last year. The passing defense in losses was more suspect giving up 194.5 per loss in 2008 but the woes of GT's passing offense are not unbeknownst to the GT fan base.

Key to victory really falls on our defense. We've got to force turnovers. In 2008, the Heels had -2.2 turnover margin in losses. The Heels are at an even 0 turnover margin on the season and the Jackets HAVE to put it into the negatives if we're to have any success against a vaunted UNC defense. Field position will be key and big turnovers and special teams will be huge.

The Heels don't plan on punting to Jerrard Tarrant any time soon. They've only given up 12 yards on 5 fielded punts in 3 games. If the Heels saved their actual punt coverage practice time for GT, then they're dumber than the average bear.

Predictions
Bird: GT 24, UNC 13 - FOR ALL THAT IS HOLY PLEASE WIN. There is a huge douchebag at work that's a huge UNC fan. Winning = Victory on so many levels.

Winfield: Biggest matchup is our offensive line vs. their defensive line. We win in the trenches, we win the game. My thoughts go up and then they go down and right now I'm not sure what to think. So here's an optimistic prediction. GT 48 UNC 6! GO JACKETS!

Dane: Here's a prediction - Tech wins, or we suck.

'Nole Your Enemy: The Huge North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:17:13 -0000

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles, which is basically two bye weeks). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Last week we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense, and yesterday we looked at UNC's Offense. If you're a fan of one of these teams, please remember that this preview of your team is from the perspective of an FSU fan. If we don't show your team respect, it's probably backed up by their performance or personnel losses. We welcome your thoughts.

Carolina's defense of a year ago is tough to analyze. What conclusions can you draw from their performance?

Inside, we''ll try to break this down, discuss what UNC has coming back, their scheme, how the 'Noles will attack that scheme, and how UNC will counter.

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

Defensive Line

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He'll have to hold off 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day.

So this group is huge and talented. They played the run very well last year, but they were not good at getting sacks. I don't care about sacks, but I do care about getting pressure on the QB. The Tar Heels weren't very good at doing that, and they have to improve on that this season, because their defensive coordinator is not a blitz guy. The starting defensive line generated only 5.5 sacks last year. That's extremely low, and they have to improve the pressure. I have every reason to expect that they will, considering everyone is back and in their 3rd year in the program. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will this battle of well coached talent.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. They did lose Excellent Middle Linebacker Mark Paschal, who some feel was merely good, not great, and benefited from the excellent play of the defensive tackles in front of him. To cover for him, 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant will shift from Weakside backer to the middle spot. Look for his numbers to explode as he will be protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. Heck, Paschal led the nation in tackles last season, and everyone thinks Paschal is better. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. He's going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all good in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC.

The only questions at linebacker are at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 220') sophomore who is very raw. I don't know enough about him or the backups, other than to say that they are really inexperienced. If Carter or Sturdivant go down, I would expect a big dropoff in production.

Front-7 Size

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs. How does that rate against other defensive fronts FSU played last year?

There are two ways to stop FSU's running game and not get burned by the bubble screen (a pass FSU throws exceptionally well) Essentially, the bubble screen is a tool to make sure that the deffense plays 7 in the box and not 8. If the defense cheats and brings extra men against the run, we throw the bubble to keep them honest. :

The first is to have a huge, disciplined front 7, that is difficult to cut block. One that takes good angles and doesn't allow cutbacks. This allows teams to play straight upon the receivers, also maintaining deep coverage. Or...

Play 8 in the box and play zero coverage-press man against each receiver. Virginia Tech did this and they were eventually burned deep. This requires excellent athletes in the secondary, and nobody on FSU's schedule should expect their cornerbacks to cover FSU's 4 and 5* receivers without safety help.

As we'll see in a second, UNC does not have the option to play number two. They have to hope their front-7 can stop the run. What did other front 7's do against FSU's run game?

Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards. Wake was very big.They were able to play the bubble straight up, which worked very well. They also had 4 seniors on defense drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137 Big and supremely talented, our rushing success came primarily in garbage time.

Miami 1785lbs, 54 rushes, 281 yards. There is a pretty big drop off from UF to Miami (55lbs). Remember here that our rushing success came primarily on reverses and Ponder running, most of which was a result of Miami's idiotic plan to defense our attack. We bubbled them to death when they went 8 or 9 in the box.

Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards. Remember that GTech was missing 2 key linebackers and a safety. Still, this is a big drop in weight from the 3 schools over 1835lbs.

Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards. Poor numbers. Explanation? Yes. VT played 8 in the box and manned up on the wide receivers. If you're puzzled, remember what happened: the only thing open was the deep ball. They saturated the running lanes and pressed FSU's wideouts. Eventually, FSU burned them deep.

Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards These numbers aren't amazing, but much of this game was us trying to control the clock while battling holding penalties. They also include lost sack yardage (which isn't a run play). Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards Maryland struggled all game in choosing to defend the bubble or the run.

Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards The smallest front we played AND they decided to stop the bubble. Running wild was the obvious result.

UNC has one of the biggest fronts in the country and will obviously be one of the best fronts FSU faces. Every offensive linemen is back for FSU, and three are All-America candidates (even if 'Nole fans know their center is overrated). The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are much bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball, but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC was quite good against the run last year:

via assets.sbnation.com

And while stopping the run is definitely important and factors heavily into stopping the pass because of the situations it creates, a team still has to actually stop the pass, and despite their high interception totals, they were not a great pass defense team. They are above average, which in the ACC, wasn't all that special.

The Secondary

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year, and Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to Hembry. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 200' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. I'm not sure of his cover skills, and as we discussed infra, he will be asked to cover more than support the run. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. But they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested after playing two joke programs before this game. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them, as well as NC State. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

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Pre-season Superlatives

miketag — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 03:19:28 -0000

After reading countless preseason magazines (still have one to go) here are some of my preseason superlatives:

Team most likely to remind you of Clemson '08: Ole Miss

Every year there is a team in the preseason top 10 that does not belong. Last year it was obviously Clemson. The prognosticators chose to overlook the fact that Clemson had a poor OL in '07 and had to completely replace it in '08. I think that Jevan Snead is a heck of a QB and will be a better pro than Colt McCoy. However, I cannot ignore the fact that Houston Nutt teams tend to be up and down. Also, you do not lose first round picks like Michael Oher and Peria Jerry and not feel it. I expect Ole Miss to win 8, maybe 9 games. That does not make them top 10 though.

Player who tv announcers will make me sick of hearing about: Colt McCoy QB tu

Let's all say it together, "Colt McCoy is roommates with Jordan Shipley. In college, their fathers were roommates too." We get it. We realize McCoy is a heck of a player and has done big things at tu. However, I do not need to hear again about what a great leader he is, how he saves lives etc. I am willing to bet money much will be made of how McCoy has done religious mission trips in the summer. texas has other good players with good stories. They have mothers too. I am sure that their families would like for them to get a little air time also.

Most overrated player: Jordan Lake S Baylor

I understand, the guy is a good hitter. Last I checked though, DBs were supposed to be able to cover someone. Lake could not cover my grandmother. Just because you are an undersized LB does not mean you are a great safety. If you want to see the best safeties in the Big 12, go watch tu play and concentrate on Blake Gideon. Watch an A&M game and observe Trent Hunter. Those are the top two safeties in the conference.

Most overrated team: USC

SC did not have a difference maker on the field last year other than Joe McKnight. They still do not have a bigtime WR who can stretch defenses. The dominant SC teams had two or three. Aaron Corps may end up proving me wrong and be a great QB, but I think this is the year to beat USC. I see Ohio State, Cal, and Oregon taking down the Trojans. UF gets honorable mention because I still think a lot of people are overlooking how disjointed their offense was last year.

Most underrated team: OU

Everyone and their dog is picking tu to beat the Sooners. Maybe they forget that OU was up by double digits in that game when Ryan Reynolds got injured and their defense became a sieve. I know they have to replace 4 of their OL. It is not like they have been recruiting stiffs over there though. Travis Lewis is the best LB they have had since The Boz. Their DL is as stacked as I have seen in a long time. OU's front 7 is as good or better than anyone's in the country. So maybe their offense will not be quite as good as last year. Maybe they will only score 40 per game. Still should be good enough to take down tu and win another conference title.

Most overlooked glaring weakness by the pundits: tu running game

Everyone just glosses over the fact that even though no one in the Big 12 played defense last year, tu could not generate a consistent running game. The sips are hoping that their 250 pound power back from last year can carry them. A lot of people are hyping Adam Utaloski and Chris Hall for post season honors. That is a lot of hype for a line that could not run the ball when it had to last year (safety vs. Tech anyone?). tu may have the best collection of WR talent in the nation (Jordan Shipley, Dan Buckner, Malcolm Williams, Desean Hales), but if you cannot run the ball and stop the run, you are not going to run the table, even with their friendly schedule.

Glad he is getting the attention he deserves: Joe Pawelek LB Baylor

I think it is funny how everyone tries to claim he was too small and too slow to play in D1 when he was in high school. He was a man among boys in the state title game against SLC. I assumed he had already committed to some out of state power. That said, Pawelek is a bigtime player and it is nice to see the media recognize it with all the pre-season hype he is getting.

Future Star that no one is talking about: Jacory Harris QB Miami

The guy oozes poise. After getting his feet wet last year as a true freshman, I expect Harris to have a breakout year as a sophomore. I expect Miami to look more like the Miami of old this season. Nine wins should be the expectation. Anything less, and you have to wonder if maybe Shannon was not the right hire.

Sleeper to finish in the top 10: North Carolina

Butch Davis has had two years to put the pieces into place. He was been recruiting as well as anyone in the country. Now we will see the fruit of his labors. I expect the Tar Heels to win the ACC. There is no way they can suffer as many injuries as they did last season. Marvin Austin should have a monster year on the way to the NFL.

Do not be surprised if they play for the MNC: Alabama

Nick Saban can flat out coach. His defense will again be one of the best in the nation. His offense should be better than last year because Greg McElroy is a better QB than John Parker Wilson. Bama may have the best DT in the nation in Terrence Cody. As long as he stays healthy, everyone will struggle to run on Bama. If you can run the ball and stop the run.....

Most interesting team to watch: Tennessee

We will either watch a train wreck, or a return to greatness for a former SEC power. I for one cannot wait to see what will happen when Lane Kiffin and his Vols take the field in the fall. If Bryce Brown lives up to the hype and the Vols can block for him, they might have something. I just have a hard time seeing the Tennessee defense picking up Monte Kiffin's scheme in a year and applying it on the field. Like I said, should be fun to watch.

SB Nation - Marvin Austin

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

2010 prospect watch (DT edition) - Nov. 17th

1 - Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska (ESPN)

2 - Gerald McCoy*, Oklahoma (ESPN, MTD)

3 - Marvin Austin*, North Carolina

4 - Arthur Jones, Syracuse (ESPN, MTD)

5 - Terrence Cody, Alabama (ESPN)

6 - Jared Odrick, Penn St. (ESPN)

7 - Vince Oghobaase, Duke (ESPN)

8 - Brian Price*, UCLA

9 - Dan Williams, Tennessee

10 - Geno Atkins, Georgia (ESPN)

Vote for the next big board position...NOW!

QB (v2.0)

WR

TE

OT

DE

OLB

CB

Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

What did we learn?

Drive #1

Drive #2

Drive # 3

Drive #4:

Drive # 5:

Drive # 6

Drive # 7

Drive # 8

Drive # 9:

Drive # 10:

Drive # 11:

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Overall Review

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

Tremendous Health

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

Defensive Line

Linebacker

Front-7 Size

The Secondary

Run and Gun

The Passing Game

2010 NFL mock draft

UNC Preview

'Nole Your Enemy: The Huge North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

Defensive Line

Linebacker

Front-7 Size

The Secondary

Pre-season Superlatives

2 - Gerald McCoy*, Oklahoma (ESPN , MTD)