SB Nation - Kendric Burney

Demaryius Thomas vs. Amari Spievey

BirdGT — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:06:40 -0000

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Beasted. (AP Photo/Sara D. Davis)

Note: This was supposed to publish at 8AM but it seems there has been some issues with the scheduling of posts. Either way, here you go.

Two guys. One catches all of our passes. One hits guys that catch passes. I'm not familiar with the Hawkeyes' defensive backfield philosophy (boundary/strong side/man-man) but based on talent alone I'm assuming Amari Spievey will be assigned to defend Demaryius Thomas a majority of the time. Black Heart Gold Pants said this of Spievey:

We haven't seen Spievey get "beaten" very much; usually, if someone completes a throw on him, it's a pass to the flat, and it ends with Amari putting his helmet through the player's femur and ending the play.

The match up is not the first this season for Thomas against talented players in the secondary. Thomas' statistically worst game was against the Tarheels. Two All-ACC performers in Deunta Williams and Kendric Burney were assigned to Bay Bay but in limiting Thomas, the Tarheels couldn't slow down the rushing attack. They sacrificed run support for stopping Thomas and his big plays. UNC didn't win but they limited our deep passing game.

Wake Forest limited Thomas, as well. Wake defended the edge and the pass with great discipline but sacrificed the dive. Jonathan Dwyer racked up 200 yards because of it. Wake limited the QB and A-Backs to 5.4 yards per carry but gave up a whopping 8.7 yards per carry to Dwyer and Preston Lyons. (averaged between the two)

The problem presented to defensive coordinators is that wide receivers in Paul Johnson's offense are expected to block. Thomas is a big dude and he enjoys leveling unsuspecting defensive backs - particularly safeties on the triple option. Because of his excellent blocking ability, we typically run to Demaryius' side of the field. Corners have to keep their eyes in the backfield in case it's play action or an option-pass. The worst place to be on defense when playing against a Paul Johnson offense is at the point of attack. For the most part, we'll be lead blocking all of our edge plays with Demaryius Thomas and the corner matched up with him will be catching Hell all night. If Thomas isn't picking up the corner, then a tackle or slot back will. The corner's gotta be able to take a beating and just be prepared to force the slot backs back inside or beat the block and make a tackle. If Spievey can't make 5-6 solo tackles in this game, I don't see Iowa's defense having much success at all

Outside the realm of blocking, Bay Bay has become a pretty refined wide receiver in Johnson's offense. He has an excellent ability to fake corners. He beats guys on jump balls with regularity and is fast enough to beat safeties in single coverage. Norm Parker's guys have got their hands full.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Demaryius in one on one at first just so Norm can see how the talent lines up. It would take a nasty turnover for Paul Johnson to stop going to Demaryius Thomas deep. Even then, if it were a poorly thrown ball, I wouldn't be surprised if we kept going his way. Seeing as Iowa's defense relies on the front seven, we should probably expect an unusual mix of passing to start the game. Like BHGP said, this battle could be an important part in determining the winner of the looming Iowa-GT War.

Hawkeyes vs Yellow Jackets coverage

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:59:19 -0000

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• The Clemson/South Carolina game features two of the best 3-4 outside linebacker prospects in Ricky Sapp (Clemson) and Eric Norwood (South Carolina). Both are seniors and having good seasons. Norwood might be the most-ready college player for a 3-4 outside linebacker spot, but Sapp's physical tools give him more upside.

• The North Carolina/North Carolina State game also features top 3-4 linebacker prospects in junior Bruce Carter (North Carolina) and senior Willie Young (NC State). Quietly, Young is putting together a solid year with 12 tackles for a loss and eight sacks. Carter is much stronger and is good at handling the run and the pass.

As mentioned previously here at MTD, North Carolina has perhaps the best group of junior talent on defense in the nation. Tackle Marvin Austin is full of athleticism. His numbers may be down, but he consistently faces double teams. Middle linebacker Quan Sturdivant leads the team in tackles with 71 and an impressive 12 tackles for loss. Strong safety Deunta Williams is a big hitter with six interceptions. Cornerback Kendric Burney might be short, but he's a playmaker.

• The key players in the Wake Forest/Duke game are interior defensive linemen. Wake's Boo Robinson is an underrated pocket pusher and Duke's Vince Oghobaase is incredibly athletic.

• Syracuse running back Delone Carter has injury problems throughout his career, but he's been a solid player this season. He's only a junior, but someone to keep an eye on. In the last three weeks, he's rushed for 339 yards and two scores.

• While teammate Carlos Dunlap has had a very disappointing season, Jermaine Cunningham has shown to be a solid contributor. He might not be a starter at the next level, but he can be a solid contributing backup because he can get after the passer and is decent against the run.

• Ole Miss running back/wide receiver Dexter McCluster has been one of the most buzzy-worthy player the last two weeks. Against Tennessee and LSU, he rushed for a combined 430 yards and four touchdowns. He's very undersized, but could be the next Darren Sproles.

• The LSU defense has plenty of NFL players, so it will be one of the biggest challenges Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett faces all season. Third nationally in pass efficiency, Mallett has 3,195 yards passing and 28 touchdowns this season. The redshirt sophomore seems ready for the NFL right now. A big game against the Tigers today, and maybe he should enter.

• Hey, remember Eric Berry? You know, the Tennessee safety. One of the best players in the nation? His pass defense numbers – two interceptions, six pass breakups – might be down this year, but he's played more against the run. This is just a friendly reminder that the junior is still one of the top five players in the nation.

UNC 31, Boston College 13

T.H. — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:43:29 -0000

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about 1 month ago: North Carolina's Kendric Burney (16) celebrates his touchdown with Bruce Carter (54) and Robert Quinn (42) after an interception in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Boston College, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, in Boston. North Carolina won 31-13. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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And the leading receiver for Boston College is... Deunta Williams.

Yes, the Carolina quarterback had three interceptions of Dave Shinskie that he returned for a total of 103 yards this afternoon Compare that to the 101 yards receiving to his own team racked up. Throw in another two interceptions, including one Kendric Burney took back to the house, and a fumble recovery for a second touchdown by Cam Thomas, and you almost didn't need the offense to take the field, right?

Unfortunately, the offense did have to take the field, and well, it wasn't particularly pretty. After an eight play, 70 yard touchdown drive on their first possession, the Heels' next twelve drives ended with 7 punts, 2 fumbles, and 3 interceptions. Only one drive topped thirty yards, and that one ended with an endzone pick, while Ryan Houston struggled on the ground with only 45 total yards. The end result was a game that was still in doubt with six minutes left in the game and Carolina holding on to a 21-13 lead. Those last two interceptions from Williamses Deunta and Melvin set the Heels up at the 1 and 24, respectively, where even this out-of-sync offense could manage ten points and put the game away.

This game overall was a marvel in offensive ineptitude. The Eagles' two field goals came on turnovers that gave them starting field position at the Carolina 29 and 30; critical stops by the Heels' front line kept Monte Harris out of the endzone. The two teams combined for 11 turnovers and 12 punts, each team managed one scoring drive that began in their own territory. UNC's 173 yards off of turnovers was almost as many as they gained passing (182) and way more than they gained on the ground (96). Dave Shiniskie was sacked five times for a total loss of 44 yards.

Any time either offense was on the field (so, you know, almost all the time) it was a disaster waiting to happen. Today, UNC was better has causing the disasters, and they were able to end BC's home winning streak, Tampa hopes, and put themselves in the driver's seat for a New Year's Day bowl. All things considered, a pleasant afternoon.

UNC 33, Miami 24

T.H. — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 03:12:03 -0000

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Jacory Harris is a good quarterback. He has a tremendous arm, the ability to scramble, and great presence to get the ball off as he's being crushed by an oncoming blitz. Unfortunately, you only have so much control once you let that ball go while being pasted into the turf. And today, that ball kept headed towards Carolina blue jerseys.

Specifically, Kendric Burney's jersey, as he intercepted three of Harris' passes, ran one back, and started another, one of the most convoluted defensive touchdowns I've seen in quite some time. Toss in a fourth interception from Da'Norris Searcy and it was a rough afternoon for the most intercepted quarterback in the conference.

It helped that the second most intercepted quarterback kept the ball out of the Hurricanes' hands, even if he put it in the turf a little too often. The Tar Heels were turnover-free, and although half their drives were three-and-outs, managed to consistently drive into Hurricane territory, resulting in four Casey Barth field goals and beautiful touchdown pass to Greg Little. More importantly, after Miami came back in the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 6 at 30-24 managed an eleven-play, five-and-a-half minute drive to the Miami 16 and a game-clinching field goal. John Shoop called a great game, putting the ball in the hands of twelve different players, and ending with Ryan Houston, who ground out 24 carries for 76 yards.

But this was the defense's game, constantly plowing through the Miami line and snatching the ball from opposing receivers every time the game was in doubt. And as a result, UNC is bowl eligible, the same week a quarter of the conference had their postseason hopes dashed. With the remaining two games on the road against hapless Atlantic teams, the Heels have a good chance of getting their highest win total since 1997. So, there's that.

2009 Virginia Tech Football: What to Watch vs. North Carolina

furrer4heisman — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:00:20 -0000

by Gerry Broome - AP

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The Team

The Hokies may not go to the ACCCG because of their loss to Georgia Tech. But that doesn't mean the team has nothing to play for this season. It's important for the Hokies to play well in these final five games to transition into 2010. And if they get some lucky bounces, they could still end up in Tampa.
This will be my only trip to Blacksburg this year. I have faith that the crowd won't disappoint. The Thursday night crowd in Lane Stadium is always my favorite.

Virginia Tech Offense vs. North Carolina Defense

The North Carolina defense is nearly a carbon copy of Virginia Tech's. The Tar Heels have a solid front seven that has played well against the run. However, they were prone to big pass plays in the second half against Florida State when they weren't able to get pressure on the quarterback.
In three conference games, the Tar Heels are allowing 5.1 yards per play, fifth in the ACC.
I think the Tar Heels are going to have success stopping the Hokies' traditional run game. However, if Tyrod Taylor can avoid pressure and break containment, he could have a big day on the ground.
I also look for Taylor to have success throwing the ball against the Tar Heels. The shorter routes to guys like Danny Coale may not be open in this game, but guys like Jarrett Boykin and Dyrell Roberts should be able to get open down field. I like the matchup when the 6-2 Boykin and 6-4 Xavier Boyce are going against 5-9 Kendric Burney and 5-10 Charles Brown.
North Carolina has a -6 turnover margin in three league games, last in the ACC. The Heels have forced one turnover (a recovered fumble vs. FSU). Things could get ugly if they don't force a couple of turnovers against the Hokies.
Conversely, the Hokies need to hang on to the ball. They lost a fumble in each of their first three conference games before Tyrod threw two interceptions against Georgia Tech.
The penalties also need to stop. We're the third-most penalized team in the conference by yards at over 55 yards per game. It's even worse in league games at 59 yards per game.

Virginia Tech Defense vs. North Carolina Offense

Greg Little keyed last week's game for the Tar Heels. He made plays both as a wide receiver and on carries that ignited the North Carolina offense.
Look for Little to be in motion when the ball is snapped on a lot of plays. This is not only to give him the ball on end arounds, but to set up a bevy of other plays. Out of the same look, the Tar Heels will give the ball to Shaun Droughn and throw the ball on play-action.
A lot of times, it will be like facing another triple-option offense. If the Hokies can key in on these plays and not let any of them break for big yards, they'll be in good shape.
Like a lot of quarterbacks, T.J. Yates isn't very good when he's being pressured. The Tar Heels have allowed 17 sacks this year, 6 in their three conference games. Late in the FSU game the Tar Heels were trying to make a comeback, but a good pass rush from the Seminoles kept North Carolina from having any chance at winning. The Hokies have to get pressure from Jason Worilds and Nekos Brown to disrupt the passing game.
If Yates has time to get the ball away, he has receivers that are capable of making big plays. Little has been outstanding of late and freshman Erik Highsmith is coming along.
The key battle to watch is Nekos Brown against left tackle Kyle Jolly. The Tar Heels are going to focus on Worilds. While Brown isn't having a bad season, I think he can play a lot better than he has been. He needs to get to the quarterback and take pressure of Worilds in this game.
In three conference games, the Tar Heels have three touchdowns and two field goals in seven trips to the red zone. That's not getting the job done. The Hokies have been average in red zone defense, but should be able to have success against the Tar Heels when down by the goal line because of North Carolina's struggles with the run game.

Outcome

The Hokies shouldn't have any trouble stopping the Tar Heel rush attack. If they can do that, they can force T.J. Yates into obvious passing downs and then just pin their ears back. I don't think North Carolina will be able to do enough on offense to win this game.
I know I'm usually a pessimist, but I think we win this one comfortably. Unless T.J. Yates has a Kyle Wright moment and suddenly becomes Joe Montana for a game.

Watch the Box Score For:

North Carolina rush yards
North Carolina sacks
VT first down yards
Tyrod Taylor passing stats

Virginia Tech Players to Watch:

5 - Tyrod Taylor, Jr., QB
81 - Jarrett Boykin, So., WR
47 - Nekos Brown, Sr., DE
17 - Kam Chancellor, Sr., FS

North Carolina Players to Watch:

8 - Greg Little, Jr., WR
72 - Kyle Jolly, Sr., OL
52 - Quan Sturdivant, Jr., LB
92 - E.J. Wilson, Sr., DE

Final Score

Virginia Tech 29, North Carolina 10

Poll

Who will win Thursday?

Hokies by less than seven

11 votes

Hokies by seven or more

125 votes

Tar Heels by less than seven

19 votes

Tar Heels by seven or more

4 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

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Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

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Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

'Nole Your Enemy: The Huge North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:17:13 -0000

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles, which is basically two bye weeks). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Last week we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense, and yesterday we looked at UNC's Offense. If you're a fan of one of these teams, please remember that this preview of your team is from the perspective of an FSU fan. If we don't show your team respect, it's probably backed up by their performance or personnel losses. We welcome your thoughts.

Carolina's defense of a year ago is tough to analyze. What conclusions can you draw from their performance?

Inside, we''ll try to break this down, discuss what UNC has coming back, their scheme, how the 'Noles will attack that scheme, and how UNC will counter.

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

Defensive Line

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He'll have to hold off 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day.

So this group is huge and talented. They played the run very well last year, but they were not good at getting sacks. I don't care about sacks, but I do care about getting pressure on the QB. The Tar Heels weren't very good at doing that, and they have to improve on that this season, because their defensive coordinator is not a blitz guy. The starting defensive line generated only 5.5 sacks last year. That's extremely low, and they have to improve the pressure. I have every reason to expect that they will, considering everyone is back and in their 3rd year in the program. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will this battle of well coached talent.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. They did lose Excellent Middle Linebacker Mark Paschal, who some feel was merely good, not great, and benefited from the excellent play of the defensive tackles in front of him. To cover for him, 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant will shift from Weakside backer to the middle spot. Look for his numbers to explode as he will be protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. Heck, Paschal led the nation in tackles last season, and everyone thinks Paschal is better. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. He's going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all good in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC.

The only questions at linebacker are at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 220') sophomore who is very raw. I don't know enough about him or the backups, other than to say that they are really inexperienced. If Carter or Sturdivant go down, I would expect a big dropoff in production.

Front-7 Size

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs. How does that rate against other defensive fronts FSU played last year?

There are two ways to stop FSU's running game and not get burned by the bubble screen (a pass FSU throws exceptionally well) Essentially, the bubble screen is a tool to make sure that the deffense plays 7 in the box and not 8. If the defense cheats and brings extra men against the run, we throw the bubble to keep them honest. :

The first is to have a huge, disciplined front 7, that is difficult to cut block. One that takes good angles and doesn't allow cutbacks. This allows teams to play straight upon the receivers, also maintaining deep coverage. Or...

Play 8 in the box and play zero coverage-press man against each receiver. Virginia Tech did this and they were eventually burned deep. This requires excellent athletes in the secondary, and nobody on FSU's schedule should expect their cornerbacks to cover FSU's 4 and 5* receivers without safety help.

As we'll see in a second, UNC does not have the option to play number two. They have to hope their front-7 can stop the run. What did other front 7's do against FSU's run game?

Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards. Wake was very big.They were able to play the bubble straight up, which worked very well. They also had 4 seniors on defense drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137 Big and supremely talented, our rushing success came primarily in garbage time.

Miami 1785lbs, 54 rushes, 281 yards. There is a pretty big drop off from UF to Miami (55lbs). Remember here that our rushing success came primarily on reverses and Ponder running, most of which was a result of Miami's idiotic plan to defense our attack. We bubbled them to death when they went 8 or 9 in the box.

Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards. Remember that GTech was missing 2 key linebackers and a safety. Still, this is a big drop in weight from the 3 schools over 1835lbs.

Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards. Poor numbers. Explanation? Yes. VT played 8 in the box and manned up on the wide receivers. If you're puzzled, remember what happened: the only thing open was the deep ball. They saturated the running lanes and pressed FSU's wideouts. Eventually, FSU burned them deep.

Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards These numbers aren't amazing, but much of this game was us trying to control the clock while battling holding penalties. They also include lost sack yardage (which isn't a run play). Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards Maryland struggled all game in choosing to defend the bubble or the run.

Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards The smallest front we played AND they decided to stop the bubble. Running wild was the obvious result.

UNC has one of the biggest fronts in the country and will obviously be one of the best fronts FSU faces. Every offensive linemen is back for FSU, and three are All-America candidates (even if 'Nole fans know their center is overrated). The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are much bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball, but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC was quite good against the run last year:

via assets.sbnation.com

And while stopping the run is definitely important and factors heavily into stopping the pass because of the situations it creates, a team still has to actually stop the pass, and despite their high interception totals, they were not a great pass defense team. They are above average, which in the ACC, wasn't all that special.

The Secondary

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year, and Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to Hembry. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 200' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. I'm not sure of his cover skills, and as we discussed infra, he will be asked to cover more than support the run. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. But they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested after playing two joke programs before this game. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them, as well as NC State. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

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10 ACC Players I'm Looking Forward to Watching in 2009

furrer4heisman — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

I gave you the 10 ACC games I was looking forward to this season earlier this week. Here's the 10 players I want to watch in 2009. I limited it to one player per team with two teams (BC and Maryland) getting snubbed.

10. Boo Robinson, Sr. DT - Wake Forest
Along with Vince Oghobaase of Duke, Robinson is one of the top two defensive tackles in the ACC. If the Wake defense wants to be nearly as good as it was last year, Robinson has to be amazing jaming up the middle.

9. Kendric Burney, Jr. CB - North Carolina
Burney had three interceptions last year and could develop into a true shut-down corner this season. He will also be in the mix to return punts for the Tar Heels.

8. Thaddeus Lewis, Sr. QB - Duke
It's Lewis' last chance to get Duke to a bowl. Just about everyone in the ACC knows how good Lewis is. But in order for the Blue Devils to make a bowl, he's going to have to become known nationally.

7. Aldarius Johnson, So. WR - Miami
Johnson is the first of three sophomores on this list. He's tall, athletic and next to impossible to cover. But can he avoid the cliche sophomore jinx in 2009?

6. Morgan Burnett, Jr. FS - Georgia Tech
Burnett reminds me of Kam Chancellor his sophomore year when he was a one-man wrecking crew crushing opponents and creating turnovers. Hopefully both Kam and Burnett can have years like that again in 2009.

5. Russell Wilson, So. QB - NC State
Last year he was the first-team All-ACC QB as a freshman. He also had an insane touchdown-to-turnover ratio. If he can keep from fumbling (which he was prone to do without them being recovered by opponents) his sophomore year could be even better.

4. Vic Hall, Sr. CB/QB - Virginia
The Hokie players and staff were apparently the only people in the Commonwealth who didn't know the Hoos were going to run the Wildcat formation with Hall in last year's game. He might get the chance to do it full time this year, which would be scary.

3. Jermaine Thomas, So. RB - Florida State
Thomas averaged a shade under 7.0 ypc last season. He'll probably be the 'Noles primary back in 2009 and could be a very special player.

2. C.J. Spiller, Sr. RB - Clemson
He'll get the bulk of the carries. He'll probably also return kicks this year. Spiller has been very average since his freshman season in 2006. It's time for him to return to being Lightning now that Thunder is gone.

1. Ryan Williams, Fr. RB - Virginia Tech
Yup, it's a homer pick. Hokie fans have seen what Williams can do in practice and in the spring game. His debut is the most anticipated of any Hokie since Kevin Jones. And fans are hoping he can put up Jones-like numbers with Darren Evans playing the part of Lee Suggs.

UNC 45, Boston College 24

T.H. — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 23:36:06 -0000

All your pass are belong to us.

Trimane Goddard had one interception (his 5th of the year, and 10th of his career) and Kendric Burney had two (3rd on the season, 4th overall), Hakeem Nicks had four touchdowns, and what else do you need to know? That's pretty much how UNC wins football games nowadays, and they did it fine style.

After a scary start, where Cam Sexton lost the ball to a pash rush on the second play of scrimmage to put the Eagles up 10-0, Carolina's defense posted three straight three-and-outs before beginning the interception party, giving the offense short fields for three scoring drives and then the lead. And when BC struck back to tie with 54 seconds left in the half, Sexton drove the team downfield with three passes to wrench the lead back - Carolina never trailed again, and the Eagles wouldn't score until the garbage time of the fourth quarter.

It was exactly the sort of game that last year's team never would have seriously contested, burnt out by the early struggles. There have been a couple of games like this over the course of this season, and I'm still slightly amazed every time the Heels overcome slow starts, although I shouldn't me. This is a good team, bowl eligible for the first time in four years, and that with the losses the two Tech's suffered this week is fully poised to win the Coastal Division, a game behind flaky Virginia and mired amongst five teams with two conference losses. Put that with one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way out, and Tampa is a distinct possibility.