SB Nation - Bruce Carter

Not every top prospect entering NFL Draft

Mocking Dan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:25:59 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Allen Bailey (top) is more athletic than your favorite defensive tackle. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

With all the news being on who is entering the April draft, there are some players who have decided to stay in school for another year.

Miami defensive lineman Allen Bailey said he is 100 percent certain he'll return to school.

"I’m going to stay," Bailey said. "That’s all. We have a good shot next year to go all the way. It looks good."

Bailey led the Hurricanes in sacks with seven and tackles for a loss with 11. He's an incredibly intriguing player who started his career at linebacker. He transitioned to defensive end before settling this season at defensive tackle. In that position, he's a great gap shooter. His agility and speed at tackle proved to be an asset.

Perhaps the top 3-4 defensive end in the nation also says he'll be back for his senior year. That would be Iowa's Adrian Clayborn. The junioer has had a sensational breakthrough season with 9.5 sacks and 18 tackles for a loss.

"It just came down to … I think I could be ready for the NFL, but I just don’t want to leave yet. I still have stuff to prove in college," Clayborn told reporters.

North Carolina outside linebacker Bruce Carter will also return for his senior year. There is speculation that Carter will reverse his decision, but he sounded pretty certain about returning saying, "I made up my mind a long time ago, I want to graduate and get my degree."

Of course, Carter, Clayborn and Bailey have until Jan. 15 to change their minds.

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 16:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Browse more photos »

• The Clemson/South Carolina game features two of the best 3-4 outside linebacker prospects in Ricky Sapp (Clemson) and Eric Norwood (South Carolina). Both are seniors and having good seasons. Norwood might be the most-ready college player for a 3-4 outside linebacker spot, but Sapp's physical tools give him more upside.

• The North Carolina/North Carolina State game also features top 3-4 linebacker prospects in junior Bruce Carter (North Carolina) and senior Willie Young (NC State). Quietly, Young is putting together a solid year with 12 tackles for a loss and eight sacks. Carter is much stronger and is good at handling the run and the pass.

As mentioned previously here at MTD, North Carolina has perhaps the best group of junior talent on defense in the nation. Tackle Marvin Austin is full of athleticism. His numbers may be down, but he consistently faces double teams. Middle linebacker Quan Sturdivant leads the team in tackles with 71 and an impressive 12 tackles for loss. Strong safety Deunta Williams is a big hitter with six interceptions. Cornerback Kendric Burney might be short, but he's a playmaker.

• The key players in the Wake Forest/Duke game are interior defensive linemen. Wake's Boo Robinson is an underrated pocket pusher and Duke's Vince Oghobaase is incredibly athletic.

• Syracuse running back Delone Carter has injury problems throughout his career, but he's been a solid player this season. He's only a junior, but someone to keep an eye on. In the last three weeks, he's rushed for 339 yards and two scores.

• While teammate Carlos Dunlap has had a very disappointing season, Jermaine Cunningham has shown to be a solid contributor. He might not be a starter at the next level, but he can be a solid contributing backup because he can get after the passer and is decent against the run.

• Ole Miss running back/wide receiver Dexter McCluster has been one of the most buzzy-worthy player the last two weeks. Against Tennessee and LSU, he rushed for a combined 430 yards and four touchdowns. He's very undersized, but could be the next Darren Sproles.

• The LSU defense has plenty of NFL players, so it will be one of the biggest challenges Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett faces all season. Third nationally in pass efficiency, Mallett has 3,195 yards passing and 28 touchdowns this season. The redshirt sophomore seems ready for the NFL right now. A big game against the Tigers today, and maybe he should enter.

• Hey, remember Eric Berry? You know, the Tennessee safety. One of the best players in the nation? His pass defense numbers – two interceptions, six pass breakups – might be down this year, but he's played more against the run. This is just a friendly reminder that the junior is still one of the top five players in the nation.

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Sara D. Davis - AP

Browse more photos »

Florida State and North Carolina might be having somewhat disappointing seasons, but there will be plenty of talent on display.

That talent will particularly be found on the defensive side of the ball.

North Carolina has one of the better defensive duos in the nation with junior Marvin Austin and senior Cam Thomas. Austin is somewhat similar to Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, just a notch below him in every category.

Thomas has nose tackle size and could be a rotational defensive tackle. He might be only a two-down player at the next level, but is serviceable.

Arguably the Tar Heels' most talented defensive player is junior inside linebacker Quan Sturdivant. He's big, fast and already has 7.5 tackles for loss this season.

On the outside, junior Bruce Carter is a very good pass rush. His numbers are down this season because teams have been sending an extra blocker at him or chipping him.

Almost every North Carolina defender has great size and athleticism. Junior free safety Deunta Williams is no exception. He gets after the ball aggressively and supports the run nicely.

And he might not be draft eligible until 2011, but end Robert Quinn is a terror. He has seven sacks this season and 14.5 tackles for loss. He might have the makings of a future top 10 pick.

Florida State's top players are pretty widely known by now. Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson was highly touted by Mel Kiper Jr. at the start of the season, but he hasn't really lived up to the hype. His awareness is poor, but he has good quickness and agility.

Senior outside linebacker Dekoda Watson is a solid cover-2 candidate, but he might have to make an NFL roster as a special teams player.

Junior Rodney Hudson might be the best guard in the nation. He's athletic for an interior linemen and really understands leverage.

Quietly, Florida State junior quarterback Christian Ponder has emerged as a solid signal caller. None of his measurables will blow people away, but he's having a tremendous season. He's completing 68 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns to just one interception.

With all the talented junior quarterbacks Ponder gets overlooked. Take note tonight at 8 p.m. on ESPN. He could be a sleeper for next season.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Browse more photos »

Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

'Nole Your Enemy: The Huge North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:17:13 -0000

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles, which is basically two bye weeks). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Last week we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense, and yesterday we looked at UNC's Offense. If you're a fan of one of these teams, please remember that this preview of your team is from the perspective of an FSU fan. If we don't show your team respect, it's probably backed up by their performance or personnel losses. We welcome your thoughts.

Carolina's defense of a year ago is tough to analyze. What conclusions can you draw from their performance?

Inside, we''ll try to break this down, discuss what UNC has coming back, their scheme, how the 'Noles will attack that scheme, and how UNC will counter.

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

Defensive Line

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He'll have to hold off 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day.

So this group is huge and talented. They played the run very well last year, but they were not good at getting sacks. I don't care about sacks, but I do care about getting pressure on the QB. The Tar Heels weren't very good at doing that, and they have to improve on that this season, because their defensive coordinator is not a blitz guy. The starting defensive line generated only 5.5 sacks last year. That's extremely low, and they have to improve the pressure. I have every reason to expect that they will, considering everyone is back and in their 3rd year in the program. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will this battle of well coached talent.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. They did lose Excellent Middle Linebacker Mark Paschal, who some feel was merely good, not great, and benefited from the excellent play of the defensive tackles in front of him. To cover for him, 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant will shift from Weakside backer to the middle spot. Look for his numbers to explode as he will be protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. Heck, Paschal led the nation in tackles last season, and everyone thinks Paschal is better. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. He's going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all good in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC.

The only questions at linebacker are at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 220') sophomore who is very raw. I don't know enough about him or the backups, other than to say that they are really inexperienced. If Carter or Sturdivant go down, I would expect a big dropoff in production.

Front-7 Size

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs. How does that rate against other defensive fronts FSU played last year?

There are two ways to stop FSU's running game and not get burned by the bubble screen (a pass FSU throws exceptionally well) Essentially, the bubble screen is a tool to make sure that the deffense plays 7 in the box and not 8. If the defense cheats and brings extra men against the run, we throw the bubble to keep them honest. :

The first is to have a huge, disciplined front 7, that is difficult to cut block. One that takes good angles and doesn't allow cutbacks. This allows teams to play straight upon the receivers, also maintaining deep coverage. Or...

Play 8 in the box and play zero coverage-press man against each receiver. Virginia Tech did this and they were eventually burned deep. This requires excellent athletes in the secondary, and nobody on FSU's schedule should expect their cornerbacks to cover FSU's 4 and 5* receivers without safety help.

As we'll see in a second, UNC does not have the option to play number two. They have to hope their front-7 can stop the run. What did other front 7's do against FSU's run game?

Wake 1838lbs, 27 rushes for 103 yards. Wake was very big.They were able to play the bubble straight up, which worked very well. They also had 4 seniors on defense drafted in the first 4 rounds.

Florida 1835lbs, 29 rushes for 137 Big and supremely talented, our rushing success came primarily in garbage time.

Miami 1785lbs, 54 rushes, 281 yards. There is a pretty big drop off from UF to Miami (55lbs). Remember here that our rushing success came primarily on reverses and Ponder running, most of which was a result of Miami's idiotic plan to defense our attack. We bubbled them to death when they went 8 or 9 in the box.

Georgia Tech 1772lbs (I think they were lighter because of major injuries, correct?). 31 rushes, 228 yards. Remember that GTech was missing 2 key linebackers and a safety. Still, this is a big drop in weight from the 3 schools over 1835lbs.

Virginia Tech 1766lbs, 34 rushes, 123 yards. Poor numbers. Explanation? Yes. VT played 8 in the box and manned up on the wide receivers. If you're puzzled, remember what happened: the only thing open was the deep ball. They saturated the running lanes and pressed FSU's wideouts. Eventually, FSU burned them deep.

Clemson 1760lbs, 34 rushes, 281 yards Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

NC State 1757lbs, 42 rushes, 162 yards These numbers aren't amazing, but much of this game was us trying to control the clock while battling holding penalties. They also include lost sack yardage (which isn't a run play). Light front 7? Check. Depending solely on speed to stop the run? Check. Cutbacks? Check.

Maryland 1755lbs, 41 rushes, 172 yards Maryland struggled all game in choosing to defend the bubble or the run.

Colorado 1755lbs, 45 rushes, 259 yards The smallest front we played AND they decided to stop the bubble. Running wild was the obvious result.

UNC has one of the biggest fronts in the country and will obviously be one of the best fronts FSU faces. Every offensive linemen is back for FSU, and three are All-America candidates (even if 'Nole fans know their center is overrated). The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are much bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball, but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC was quite good against the run last year:

via assets.sbnation.com

And while stopping the run is definitely important and factors heavily into stopping the pass because of the situations it creates, a team still has to actually stop the pass, and despite their high interception totals, they were not a great pass defense team. They are above average, which in the ACC, wasn't all that special.

The Secondary

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year, and Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to Hembry. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 200' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. I'm not sure of his cover skills, and as we discussed infra, he will be asked to cover more than support the run. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. But they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested after playing two joke programs before this game. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them, as well as NC State. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Become a fan of Tomahawk Nation on facebook! http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/TomahawkNationcom/63264950770

Follow Tomahawk Nation on Twitter! https://twitter.com/TomahawkNation

New Readers: please read through the Tomahawk Nation Welcome Guide! We put a lot of work into that and it should enhance your experience.

Pick up your Tomahawk Nation 2009 T-Shirt! This is a very high quality shirt. Now available in white and Garnet, and in Womens sizes as well! This is a shirt you can wear out. It's not gaudy and not trashy. It is designed and produced entirely by FSU Alumni! The White option is perfect for the WhiteOut game (USF!)

2010 NFL Draft rankings: Outside linebackers

Mocking Dan — Mon, 25 May 2009 17:32:43 -0000

The look ahead to the 2010 NFL Draft continues today with the outside linebacker rankings.

None of the seniors, including Sean Weatherspoon (above), come without serious questions. The same can be said for the juniors. Because of that, these rankings could change dramatically throughout the season. And don't be surprised if a couple new names pop up, either.

Note: College defensive ends who project to 3-4 outside linebacker will be grouped in the defensive ends.

After all the positional rankings are revealed, a top 200 will be put out. Up next will be middle linebackers.

Find the outside linebacker rankings here and feel free to talk about them and add suggestions in this thread.

Previous: CB | FS | SS

UNC 44, Rutgers 12

T.H. — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:08:59 -0000

Admit it. You called somebody.

Everybody's got that one other Carolina friend, the guy (or gal) you call during UNC games. You haven't had a reason to call during football season for quite some time, and the last time you did it was probably to complain that Bunting should be fired. And tonight, you made that call.

This is football you haven't seen since the UNC-FSU game of 2001, or the Mack Brown era. Carolina came out cold, with a three and out, and a defense that immediately gave up fifty-plus yards. And through the first quarter it looked like every other game of the last ten years, with a team that you knew had talent but just couldn't execute.

And then the defense woke up, getting the first of the defense's four interceptions from Charlie Brown. And although the offense sputtered and only got a tying field goal, the momentum shifted. Yates put together he first touchdown drive off a poor Rutgers punt, then let Brandon Tate loose on the opening play of the next drive for a 69 yard TD reception.

Going into the second half, my big worry was that Carolina would come out sluggish, confident with an eleven-point lead. Instead, the defense tightened down, Yates put together a great extended drive (including a third down gutsy run directly in to the Knights' linebackers for a first down) that was followed up almost immediately by Bruce Carter's interception return for UNC's fourth touchdown. At this point the game was over at 31-6, and UNC didn't let up.

There's almost a scary amount of things to rave about in this game. Robert Quinn's off the bench defensive stops. Brandon Tate's continuing to rack up the yardage. A running game that was established and then proceeded to bounce off Rutgers linemen like it was a game of pinball. A defense that just owned the Scarlet Knights, starting by denying them the deep pass, consistently denying them the first downs when they shifted to short passes over the middle, and defending the running game like I haven't seen in a decade. I'm positively giddy. I'm as optimistic as I usually am in the preseason, and now I actually have a reason.

I know, on an intellectual level, that the entire year won't be like this. Carolina could bring the same old collection of miseries to Virginia Tech next Saturday, and I'll be just as miserable as I've been the last ten years. But until then, this is fun. Rutgers may turn out as awful as UNC was two years ago, it still won't diminish this game. Hell, the announcers were using this game to redeem the entire Atlantic Coast Conference. Halfway through the third quarter, I dropped the cash for the UNC-Maryland game; that's how excited I am. And most importantly, most deliciously, most thank-God-it's over, it puts a stake in that damn 20-loss streak outside of the state of North Carolina stat. I never have to hear that damn thing again. Bwah-ha-ha.

Enjoy this. Bask in it. Giggle maniacally, if that's your thing. This was fun.