SB Nation - Hakeem Nicks

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Preview, part Deux

FSUncensored — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Butch Davis- "Thank God I get to play the most undisciplined and worst coached defense in the country!" (AP Photo/Gregory Smith, File)

Browse more photos »

First, check out yesterday's part 1. Then read this.

Kickoff is 8pm Eastern. ESPN. Weather looks nice, lower 70's, no rain.

We will live-blog the game like we always do! Be here at 7:30 Eastern to get in on the action.

Inside:

Depth Charts
In-Depth Statistical Breakdown
Personnel Review
A conceptual look at UNC's attack
What can FSU do to stop UNC?
Prediction

Quarterback
13 - T.J. Yates (6-3, 220, Jr.)
Fullback
4 - Bobby Rome (5-11, 245, Sr.) OR
6 - Anthony Elzy (5-10, 215, Jr.) OR
45 - Devon Ramsey (6-2, 245, So.)
Tailback
20 - Shaun Draughn (6-0, 210, Jr.)
32 - Ryan Houston (6-2, 245, Jr.)
Wide Receiver
8 - Greg Little (6-3, 215, Jr.)
87 - Jheranie Boyd (6-2, 185, Fr.)
Wide Receiver
88 - Erik Highsmith (6-3, 175, Fr.)
83 - Dwight Jones (6-4, 220, So.)
3 - Joshua Adams (6-4, 200, Fr.) (questionable)
Left Tackle
72 - Kyle Jolly (6-6, 310, Sr.)
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.)
Left Guard
67 - Greg Elleby (6-5, 295, Jr.) OR
64 - Jonathan Cooper (6-3, 295, Fr.*) (questionable, but will start if healthy)
Center
65 - Cam Holland (6-2, 300, So.) Banged up last game
75 - Tavares Brown (6-0, 310, Sr.)
Right Guard
70 - Alan Pelc (6-6, 325, Jr.)
Right Tackle
66 - Mike Ingersoll (6-5, 300, Jr.)
Tight End
80 - Ed Barham (6-3, 265, Jr.) OR
17 - Zack Pianalto (6-4, 255, Jr.) MAYBE
33 - Christian Wilson (6-3, 235, So.)

Let's start with last season:

Actually, let's not. The Heel's offense was good, definitely one of the 35 best in the country. They lost basically everyone. This year?

Here's their performance against 1A competition to date:

UNC Offensive Performance
Opponent	at UCONN	ECU	Gtech	UVA
Opponent Defenisve Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	54th	98th	60th	27th
Plays	67	63	44	59
Yards Per Play	4.1	6.9	3.5	2.9
Rushes	29	37	17	21
Yards/ Rush	2.4	4	1.4	2.3
Passing Plays	38	26	27	38
Yards/ Pass Play	5.4	11	5.9	3.3
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	27-9 (33%)-11	35-11 (35%)- 11	16- 4 (25%)- 9	21-9-8
Standard 2nd Downs	5-10 (50%)	5-8 (63%)	3-5 (60%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 2nd Downs	3-14 (21%)	5-13 (38%)	2-9 (22%)	0-12 (0%)
Standard 3rd Downs	2-6 (33%)	4-5 (80%)	2-5 (40%)	2-5 (40%)
Passing 3rd Downs	4-10 (40%)	1-7 (14%)	1-10 (10%)	3-13 (23%)
Note:	Only 6 successes in 29 runs, horrible. 18 successes in 38 pass plays is much better		10 plays and 37 yards in garbage time Did have a bad snap for -20 Very sloppy, dropped passes and inaccurate.	1 Drive over 20 yards 6 of 10 1st down passes went for 5+ yards, very safe. 6 of 21 success rate rushing (terrible) 12 of 38 Success Passing

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

That's really bad. Know what else is bad? FSU's defense!

Opponent	Miami	at BYU	USF	at BC	Georgia Tech
Opponent Offensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22	6	94	61	2
Plays	74	53	60	57	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

Click to enlarge (works today)

Yes, you're reading that right. UNC's offense is the 99th best in the country. You could call it the 22nd worst! And not to be outdone, FSU's defense so far has been the 101th best! Yes, 101. To sum it up in one sentence, North Carolina's offense failed to move the ball at all against both good and bad defenses, while FSU's defense allows everyone to do whatever they wish.

Who does it for them?

At quarterback is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. As you can see from the chart above, he is an average player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and he did drop some weight in the off-season.

I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. I wrote that this summer, and so far this year against D1 competition, he has a 4-6 TD/ INT ratio.

They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game They've shown little of either so far.

He's not your ideal running threat, but against the most undisciplined, worst coached defense in the nation, look for him to be running with the ball.

Offensive Line

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

I think I nailed this. UNC still can't run the ball worth a damn. They have not stayed healthy. Center Lowell Dyer strained a muscle in his right shoulder in practice the week of the Connecticut game and has missed five straight games. He is
undergoing rehab with the hopes of returning before the season ends, but will not play against FSU. He's been replaced by Sophomore Cam Holland (6'2" 310). Redshirt freshman Guard Jonathan Cooper twisted his right ankle in his first career start vs. The Citadel and did not play the following week vs. Connecticut. He returned last week and will start against the 'Noles.

This is probably the worst offensive line FSU will have played to date (USF being the only challenger). They aren't great in pass protection nor run blocking. Luckily for them, they play the most undisciplined defense in the country.

If FSU gets them in 3rd and long, FSU should use the prowler. UVA had success with it:

Pass Catchers

Wrote this over summer:

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

For the most part, I nailed this. Little is the #1. They like to throw him short stuff and let him work with his legs. The #2, however, was a surprise. It's Freshman Erik Highsmith, a 6'3" 175' kid who has done a lot for them in a short period of time. Starting tight end Zack Pianalto dislocated his foot vs. Connecticut after scoring a touchdown and has missed four consecutive games. He returned to practice last week, and will play against FSU. His effectiveness, however, is yet to be determined.

UNC's wideouts run really poor routes. I did rip Yates for being inaccurate, but part of that needs to fall on the receivers for not being where they are supposed to be. Additionally, they drop balls. These guys are big, fast athletes, but as I predicted, they are inconsistent and really lack polish.

Backs

I wrote:

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Womble is out for the year, and Rome has been banged up, largely replaced by 6'0" 245 Devon Ramzey. This is pretty much accurate. Their backs don't scare me, but they aren't a bad group. As usual, the offensive line matters a lot more than the running backs.

Focus on Common Opponents

I want to take a minute to show the differences between the two teams. Both teams played Georgia Tech's defense.

Opponent: Georgia Tech	Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted): Georgia Tech has the #2 offense in the Country to date.
Defense	FSU's Defense	North Carolina Defense
Plays	63	77
Yards Per Play Allowed	8.5	5.3
Rushes	55	65
Yards/ Rush Allowed	7.4	5
Passing Plays	8	12
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	16.4	6.9

Yeah, FSU's defense is much worse. The 'Noles allowed 35% more yards per play than UNC did, and UNC was on the road while FSU was at home. I guess that's why the 'Nole's defense is 101st and the Tar Heel's is 10th. I actually believe FSU's defense is even worse than their 101st ranking (can't believe I am saying that).

Now I want to do something a different. Follow me here. FSU's defense ranks # 101. East Carolina's ranks #98. That's pretty comparable. USF's offense ranks # 94, and UNC's #99. That's pretty comparable. Let's look at what FSU's defense did against a bad offense and what UNC's bad offense did against a bad defense:

Team	FSU's Defense against	UNC's Offense Against
v.	USF (94th ranked Offense)	ECU (98th best defense)
Plays	60	63
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.2	6.9
Rushes	37	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	5	4
Passing Plays	23	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	8.2	11

Remember that USF runs a spread option- the best offense to run against FSU. UNC does not run that.
However, USF also played prevent offense for more than a quarter, so their performance was much better than their 6.2 showed.
ECU's defense is very similar to FSU's
I would expect UNC to get about 6.5 yards per play.

How do they do it?

Bunch & Motion & Stack & Tight - man beaters

UNC runs almost every play out of some sort of bunch, stack, or tight formation. What is that?

Click to enlarge.

The reason for this is pretty simple. UNC's wideouts do not run good routes. Ideally, teams would like to run man-coverage against them and blitz. When receivers are bunched up or stacked or in tight, and a team wants to play man-coverage against those wideouts, they will have to put two defenders in very close proximity to each other. That poses a substantial risk that those two defenders will collide or get tangled up when trying to cover. It also prevents the defense from playing press-man coverage (again, the goal being to help out the young receivers by allowing them a clean release off the line.

ECU played a ton of man and got burnt. I fully expect FSU to bang their heads against the wall and get burnt on this. The 'Nole's defense will look really stupid. Combine that with the problems they have defending the tight end, and you have the recipe for a truly horrid pass offense to look pretty good. Mickey Andrews needs to play some zone and he won't because he is stubborn.

As for the motion, UNC motions on every single play. It allows the offense to get a better idea of what the defense is doing based off how the defense reacts. UNC players have commented how simple FSU's defense is, and that tells me that they are confident they will figure out what FSU is doing based off the 'Nole's reaction to the pre-snap motion. I'll figure that they will have the 'Nole's simple hand signals down by the middle of the 1st quarter.

A Little Clemson

This offense reminds me of the Rob Spence attack Clemson ran in 2006 and 2007.

Self Inflicted Wounds

UNC really does a nice job stopping themselves. Lazy/ bad routes, bad throws, and lapses in protection (and run blocking) hurt this club, as have penalties. I don't figure them to take a lot of risks, but

Slow Starters

For whatever reason, UNC has gotten off to really slow starts in their 4 games against D1 competition.

UConn

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:34	UNC 23	3	2	Punt
10:59	3:23	UNC 20	9	37	Int
6:12	2:08	UNC 3	3	9	Punt
3:04	3:51	UNC 35	8	38	FG Miss

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
9:33	1:57	Conn 48	3	-9	Punt
4:48	1:19	UNC 38	3	-7	Punt


3rd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:31	3:07	UNC 27	6	15	Punt
8:29	2:56	UNC 1	5	15	Punt
3:33	1:19	UNC 21	3	5	Int

East Carolina

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:55	1:38	UNC 18	3	6	Punt
11:00	0:30	UNC 31	2	2	Fumble
7:00	2:16	UNC 40	6	60	TD
3:00	1:39	UNC 19	3	4	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
14:44	2:26	UNC 8	5	14	Punt
10:43	1:32	UNC 23	3	-13	Punt

Georgia Tech

Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:27	UNC 20	3	4	Punt
8:57	1:03	UNC 19	3	1	Punt
3:04	0:55	UNC 8	3	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
13:47	1:37	UNC 20	3	-2	Punt
10:39	2:18	UNC 31	5	1	Fumble

UVA

1st Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
15:00	1:40	UNC 20	3	-4	Punt
12:17	1:30	UNC 20	3	3	Punt
9:27	2:09	UNC 44	4	14	Punt
4:46	3:00	UNC 13	6	3	Punt

2nd Quarter
Start Time	Time Poss	Drive Began	# of Plays	Yards Gained	Result
12:00	1:20	UNC 25	3	8	Punt
6:50	2:49	UNC 28	6	18	Punt

It's very important for FSU to not allow UNC to get off to a fast start. This is a team lacking in confidence, and if the longer they go without grabbing a big lead, the tighter they will play. And this team will begin to press. I'd expect them to play conservative early, but if they get down late, expect Yates to chuck it up.

No dropback downfield passing game (only PA)

UNC has zero dropback passing game. There's not much to say about this expect that almost every time they drop back without moving the pocket or using play-action, they look really bad.

Moving The Pocket

UNC's passing game is almost entirely based on bootlegs, rollouts, etc. Yates loves to get far outside the pocket (with his OLine, you would as well) and set his feet before launching. FSU must to not let him set his feet on rollouts.

When they rollout or bootleg, they look to hit a lot of deep crossing routes. This works for them because the wideouts don't typically have to run a great route, it's more of a drift team.

Screen Game

When FSU checks to Cover-3 (after motion), they will run this:

Click to enlarge.

No Huddle

UNC has done a nice job running limited no huddle (hurrying up to the line when running back to back plays).

Cut their Splits and Blast Block the Power?

UNC's primary run play is the Power. Down, Down, Pull (kick-out) and go. The linemen all block down -- meaning they step away from where the play is going -- to crush the defensive linemen and get double-teams. The offense makes up for this by using the fullback to block the defensive end from the inside-out, and they block the linebacker on the play side by pulling the backside guard. Here's a great post on the play. I'd expect UNC to cut their splits to prevent penetration and run this play 20+ times tonight. FSU has struggled against this before.

They also do a lot of end-around motion off the power, occasionally giving it but more often than not just holding the edge player for a second.

FSU's injuries

FSU is really banged up and will be without Starters in bold. Key reserves in italics:

CB Dionte Allen (thumb),
LB Maurice Harris (neck)*,
TE Caz Piurowski (knee)*,
DT Budd Thacker (knee).

WR Richard Goodman (groin),
SS Korey Mangum (shoulder),
DT Justin Mincey (knee),
CB Patrick Robinson (ankle),
LB Dekoda Watson (groin/knee)
* - out for the season

Several of the backups are now walk-ons. That is what happens when you have 5 terrible defensive coaches who don't give a damn about recruiting in 2006 and 2007. You have no depth. This defensive coaching staff really is the worst in the country.

Prediction:

As I said yesterday, I expect FSU to get close to 6.2 yards per play against UNC's defense, which would be by far the most they have given up all year, by 25%. That's a win for the offense, and I think they get about 27 points. I think UNC's offense will get it together against FSU's trash defense. Allowing anything over 4.5 yards per play to one of the worst offenses I have seen in a long time would be ridiculous, but I see FSU allowing UNC to go for much more than that and allow 6.5 yards per play, which would be a complete and utter embarrassment. Special teams are a factor here and UNC's group is nothing to write home about, while FSU's return teams have been good (coverage is another story). I'll say UNC gets 28 points on a mixture of plays for loss and big plays to win 28-27 over a 'Nole's team that could have some serious infighting between an elite level offense and an embarrassment level defense.

Chance to win: 45%

And Now, a Word from John Bunting

T.H. — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:33:32 -0000

ACC Sports Journal has a fascinating interview with John Bunting, touching on how he recruited Hakeem Nicks, the quarterback that turned down Southern Cal for UNC, what Roy Williams though of high schooler Greg Paulus, and a story that ends:

There is no doubt in my mind we would have had Russell Wilson in Chapel Hill. No doubt in my mind. I’m 100 percent certain.

Hop on over there to learn what prevented that from happening.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

'Nole Your Enemy: The North Carolina Tar Heel Offense

FSUncensored — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 20:05:35 -0000

TJ Yates drops back to pass for the North Carolina Tar Heels.

View full size photo »

We continue our " 'Nole Your Enemy" Series with The North Carolina Tar Heels, who the 'Noles will play on a possibly Cold Thursday Night, October 22nd. Making this game even tougher is North Carolina's schedule (the Heels play Virginia and Georgia Southern before they host the 'Noles). Thursday night games tip overwhelmingly in favor of the home team. We started with South Florida (Offense, Defense) and continued with BYU's Offense and Defense. Yesterday we previewed BC's Offense and the Boston College Defense.

As always, we look at how good a team was last year, and then examine who left, who is back, and who should step up.

First, we'll take a look at Brian Fremeau's Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Let's compare UNC to other ACC teams. NOTE: these metrics are advanced. The methodology can be found in the links. They don't include numbers after a game is a blowout. It's about competitive possessions only.

By this measure they were the ACC's 4th best offense (about 30th Nationally). It's worth noting that slightly higher ranked opponents gave the FSU defense fits (GTech averaging 8.4 yards per snap before their QB went down with an ankle injury, NCST did similar before FSU's offense held the ball for 38 minutes). And offenses ranked lower did similar, which is scary.

How about Bill Connelley's S&P+ measure (Fremeau and Connelley are the two foremost experts in measuring football performance.)

When AOE and S&P+ agree, it makes things much easier to analyze because I don't have to discuss why the metrics differ. While AOE has UNC at about 30th, S&P+ calls them 40th, but they both call UNC the 4th best ACC offense.

What about in ACC games only, where the style of play is very conservative?

In ACC games, UNC was distinctly in that middle group. I find the segmentation here pretty fascinating, and wow was Wake Forest bad on offense.

What about UNC's passing game?

Okay, wow. UNC had far and away the best passing game in the ACC. I'm not feigning surprise there. I knew they were good, but that is tremendous. What's also curious is the bunching in the middle. Everyone seems to be pretty close except for VTech. In ACC games only, the numbers were similar (sorry, no graph).

How about UNC's run game?

Okay, so that's not all that impressive. they were slightly worse in conference play, but not much, so no graph is needed.

I think it's pretty safe to say that UNC's offense was between the 30th and 40th best in the Nation.

UNC's attack is pretty pro-style, in that they aren't a spread team. They do run some shotgun, but for the most part, they will run with 2 wideouts, one running back, one tight end, and then either a fullback, tight end, or extra wide receiver. Their run game doesn't have much misdirection, though they will occasionally run a counter or two. They do, however, do a great job running the bootleg and consistently punish teams with over pursuing defensive ends (that's FSU, folks). Their offensive coordinator is Jon Shoop, who has NFL experience. Let's get to their personnel...

Quarterback

UNC's QB is TJ Yates. He started 12 games in 2007, and started 6 last year, missing some time due to injury. He's now a Junior. Here's a look at what he did last season:

	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating
McNeese St.	26	15	58	221	8.5	2	1	147
@ Rutgers	22	14	64	221	10	3	0	193
15 Virginia Tech	18	11	61	181	10.1	1	0	164
22 Georgia Tech	3	1	33	28	9.3	0	0	112
North Carolina St.	22	10	46	116	5.3	0	1	81
@ Duke	19	15	79	190	10	3	1	205
+ 23 West Virginia	25	15	60	211	8.4	2	1	149
Totals	135	81	60	1168	8.7	11	4	154

In any case, Yates is a decent player who doesn't get a lot of publicity. He's not much of a running threat, though there are some whispers that UNC will try to run him a bit more as he's better conditioned this year and might have dropped some weight. I would like to note that he probably will not have a 3-1 TD/INT ratio this year, given his past. They did visit Texas this off-season to pick up some concepts. I'm sure some of that was the zone read. It might also be some of this: Texas Passing Game

He doesn't have much in the way of a backup, and Yates has had injury problems. If he goes down, look out. We'll revisit that as the game approaches.

Offensive Line

While the quarterback is more important than any one lineman, the offensive line as a whole is probably more important than quarterback play, and certainly more important than the play of the wide receivers or running backs. That's why we analyze them next.

The Tarheels have a rock at Left Tackle in Kyle Jolly. While he's not a special player, he is pretty consistent. The 6'6" 300lb Senior has started 25 career games at left tackle, and even played a bit as a freshman. At Right Tackle, the Heels have a new face in 6'5" 300lb Junior Mike Ingersoll. He played 78 snaps last year, though didn't start any games. He does have this position almost by default now, as his competition for the job, Carl Gaskins is down with an injury for the season. I think Jolly is pretty good, but this group doesn't have much depth.

At Right Guard, Junior Alan Pelc started 9 games last year at guard. At 6'6" 325 he's a decent run blocker and does an okay job maintaining his ground in pass protection. Pelc won UNC's newcomer of the year award last season and many are impressed with him. At left Guard, the Heels have Redshirt freshman Jonathan Cooper. The 6'3"295lb first time starter (obviously) got reps at guard in the spring after Senior Aaron Stahl decided to forgo his senior year and pursue his graduate degree. At Center is the steady 6'4" 290lb Senior Lowell Dyer. Dyer has started 14 games over two seasons. He's your typical savy Senior center.

The key for UNC's line will be health. With just 58 career starts among them (slightly below average nationally), and no proven depth, the Heels line really needs to stay healthy. They were pretty decent in pass protection last year, and considering UNC's desire to throw deep a lot, their sacks allowed weren't terrible. They were sometimes very bad running the ball, however, and they averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once against an ACC team (GTech).

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Okay, now to the pass catchers.

Last year UNC had a great crop of pass catchers. Not good, not decent, but great. This year? We shall see. UNC lost 72% of the team's receptions, 81 % of its receiving yards and 92% percent of its receiving touchdowns.

Gone is 1st round draft pick Hakeem Nicks. 6'4" 220lbs. Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards (18 yards per catch!), and 12 touchdowns. He left as a Junior, something UNC didn't expect when the season started. Say goodbye to Brandon Tate, who caught 16 balls for 376 yards (24 yards per catch!), and was also an incredible punt and kick returner (All-American lock before the injury). He's also gone to the NFL. Brooks Foster was a gutty senior who caught 30 balls for 334 yards, which is only an 11 yard average, but he was good on 3rd downs. The Heels are also without Tight End Richard Quinn who caught 8 balls for 97 yards and Cooter Arnold who grabbed 7 for 87.

But UNC has done a great job recruiting under Butch Davis. A really nice job. Davis knows talent and he has picked up at UNC right where he left of at Miami. 6'3" 220lb Junior Greg Little is very talented and has played both running back and wide receiver in his career at UNC. He improved a lot in spring, and should go from a poor route runner to at least an average route runner. They also feature Dwight Jones, a 6'4" 220lb Sophomore, who isn't a blazer but does have good hands. He was the #13 ranked wide receiver recruit in 2008. When the Heels go 3-wide, they will likely use Freshman Josh Adams, a highly touted 6'4" 200lb recruit who made it in for the spring.

As noted above, the Heels often use two tight ends (or an H-Back, as FSU does). They are absolutely giddy about 6'4" 250lb Junior Zach Pianalto. He was banged up a lot last year but impressed in his 7 games. I am not sure who their 2nd tight end will be, and whoever it is, he didn't get much playing time last year.

Fun Fact: NC has 6 wideouts who are 6'3+ and 200lbs+. I expect this group to be talented but to be quite inconsistent at least early on.

Running Backs

Teams aren't going to respect UNC's wide receivers, and that will make things even tougher for their running game, which wasn't very good last season (see graph above). UNC has a lot of running backs. They are led by Shaun Draughn, a 6'0" 205lb Junior. He was a good back last year, and that was his first year playing running back (was a defensive player). Draughn rushed 198 times for 865 yards, and did a great job of not losing yards (only lost 32 on almost 200 carries).

UNC also has a huge group of big backs, which I have trouble keeping straight. Junior Ryan Houston is talented and 6'2" 250lbs, and Jamal Womble is 5'10" 225lbs. They also have huge fullback Bobby Rome, a 5'11" 245lb Senior. Let's classify their backs in the "good but not great" category, but they do have tremendous depth.

Final Thoughts:

We classify UNC as a pro-style offense. The question in my mind is just how pro-style will they be? Why does this matter? Here:

FSU's Defense		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent Type	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Decidedly Not Pro-Style	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

So there are mixed signals here. UNC's wideouts are really inexperienced but also pretty talented. Their offensive line is unproven. Will teams respect their run? Can UNC run the football? If UNC can run the ball and teams creep up to stop their run game, they can create one on one matchups for their wide receivers, which could really help them. I suspect UNC's wideouts will struggle against zone coverages, as they fail to sit down in the voids in the zone. How much will UNC run their quarterback? His past suggests he isn't very mobile, but maybe he has had that special off-season and is now running the ball? The more UNC uses a fullback, the better for FSU. I suspect they will use a lot of two tight end, two wide receiver sets, and will try to win this game by pounding the football and throwing off play-action, specifically bootlegs. Still, this offense should take a step back from where they were last year. I expect them to again be in the top half of the country, but a return to the top Quarter of college football teams is unlikely. They simply lost too much talent (2 or 3 offensive line starters) and 4 pass catchers who went to the NFL combine. The key, as usual, will be to stop their run game and their big backs without over-committing the safeties. If UNC wants to line up in the I-formation, FSU should be able to handle them. The evolution of the UNC offense will be something I watch with great interest this year. Here's hoping they stay very "pro-style."

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Hogs Haven Interviews Butch Davis

T.H. — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 22:54:32 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

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Fellow SB Nation blog Hogs Haven ran down and put together an excellent interview with Butch Davis this past week – Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here. It mostly focuses on his time at Miami, were he coached and recruited current stars Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, but there's a couple of good insights into his general philosophy, especially with regards to moving players to new positions:

Every place I’ve ever coached we’ve always experimented moving players around. That was one of the things Jimmy Johnson was brilliant at going all the way back to our Oklahoma State days. Dexter Manley was originally an OLB that we moved to DE and obviously he had great success with the Redskins. A variety of guys at Miami and Dallas. Tony Tolbert who was a great player for the Cowboys. He was an OLB at the University of Texas El Paso and he came in and we made him a DE. It’s wise. I think all coaches are looking for gifted athletes that have a lot of versatility. You’re always trying to create matchups. That’s probably the biggest change in football the last 15-20 years. Slot receivers against nickel backs. Corners and multiple personnel. You’re looking for matchups.

He's also got nice things to say about Hakeem Nicks and his chances of success in the NFL. As they say, read the whole thing.

Projecting the rookies: WhatIfSports takes it on

Fooch — Fri, 01 May 2009 15:00:13 -0000

I'm curious how many folks have heard of whatifsports.com? It's a rather comprehensive site that does a combination of projections and fantasy sports. Doing a fantasy league with all-time players can be oh so addictive. I highly recommend it if you have some free time....or even if you don't.

Anyways, I noticed a post at Mike Sando's ESPN blog last night that mentioned something rather interesting and I wanted to get people's thoughts on it. The folks at WhatIfSports put together an annual NFL preview that includes stat projections for every single player. Not so surprisingly, the hardest projections are for rookies. As they put it:

To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factors collegiate performance, role in college, strength of collegiate competition, "measurables," likely NFL role, previous performance of a similar player in that NFL role for this coaching staff and trends of similar rookies in the past. This gives us the player's projected ratio stats (expected yards per carry, completion percentage, etc.), as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming season. From there, we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact for his new NFL team in his first year.

The results? Well, they came up with a ranking of the top 100 rookies. For the 49ers, Scot McKillop finished #62, one spot ahead of offensive lineman Michael Oher. I'm not quite sure how much an impact McKillop will have as a rookie. He'll get a lot of special teams playing time, but I'm curious how much he'll be on the field the rest of the game. If Spikes stays healthy, who knows...

More importantly for now though, the #1 rookie in terms of positive impact was our very own Michael Crabtree (and yes it still sounds good saying that):

Unlike last season, when three players eclipsed the mark, there are no 1,000-yard rushers or receivers projected from this group of rookies. Crabtree is the closest thing and it really would not be a surprise to see him do it. He gets great marks across the board from college performance, to NFL opportunity, to "measurables" and even a successful player (Issac Bruce) in this role last season. The only concerns with this projection would be inconsistency at quarterback – Shaun Hill, Damon Huard, Alex Smith and Nate Davis are the options – and recent injuries to his feet and ankles.

The remaining top 10 were:

2. Matthew Stafford, QB
3. Mark Sanchez, QB
4. Percy Harvin, WR
5. Aaron Curry, LB
6. Jason Smith, OT
7. Andre Smith, OT
8. Kenny Britt, WR
9. Hakeem Nicks, WR
10. Louis Delmas, S

Thoughts on the rankings? In the case of Stafford, when a team goes 0-16 I'd imagine there really is nowhere to go but up. I remain skeptical about Mark Sanchez, but maybe WhatIfSports has a better idea of this than me. I was intrigued to see Jeremy Maclin ranked 24th overall and behind Heyward-Bey, Nicks, Britt and Harvin. So, any thoughts on whether some folks are over or under-rated?

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW: The 1st Round Live Blog (Tape Delayed)

Josh from Hollywood — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 02:15:01 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

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FOOCH'S NOTE: Josh put this together and offered it up and I thought we could hold off with more in-depth analysis until tomorrow. Let's end the night with a little levity.

For those who don't know (a.k.a. "n00bs"), I posted a columns a couple of times a week during last season (you can check those out here). Due to time constraints, I've gone postless since the Super Bowl, but I'm back with a vengeance for the greatest offseason event in sports -- Draft Day.

I’ve watched the NFL Draft for over 20 years now. And I’ve never experienced it in any other way than on ESPN. I can still vividly remember being super pissed when the Jets took Roger Vick, a RB out of Texas A&M, with the 21st pick in 1987, because Mel Kiper made it clear the Niners wanted to take him at #22. Boy, that really came back to bite the Niners, huh?

When the NFL Network began airing the draft, I always meant to give their coverage a try. But I’m a creature of habit, so I never managed more than a cursory click-over during a commercial or particularly annoying part of ESPN coverage. The coverage was decent enough, with Mooch, and Deion, and Marshall Faulk. It also had Rich Eisen leading the charge, a huge improvement over Berman. The Net’s version of Mel Kiper is Mike Mayock. He actually played in the NFL, so he’s got that going for him. And he’s every bit as abrasively East Coast as Mel -- his Phillyese is quite similar to Mel’s Baltimorese.

Because I’m so into my comfortable routines, I’ve never actually gave them a shot, going with them right from the get-go. But after 20+ years of Chris Berman’s bad jokes, Mel Kiper’s hair, and the ever expanding Scott Stuartization of their coverage, I’ve finally had enough. I need to go one year without it. So today’s the day -- except for that rare click-over during commercials, I plan to stay ESPN-free today. I'm flying with The NFL Network -- The Net, for short -- all day today. Won’t you join me on this journey of discovery?

8:59am -- I’m all ready for this draft. All settled in on the couch, got my notebook, food, drink, computer, TV’s on. I’M READY ROCK N’ ROLL!!!

9:01 -- Wait, the draft’s not on. Checking my programming guide, I see it doesn’t start until 1pm. Totally forgot about that. So I got up at 8:30am for no absolutely no reason. Oh well, more time to ~~download porn~~ do research.

11:47 -- After a long nap, I’m back and ready to roll again. Turn on the NFL network pre-~~game~~ draft just in time to see Rich Eisen toss it to Santa Clara, where Brian "Creepy Pinky" Baldinger is at Niner HQ. He breaks big news on the Niners plan of action for the draft: "That’s what this draft is all about -- improving the roster, improving their chances of winning next season." Mind blown. Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor.

11:49 -- After that truly enlightening report from Baldinger*, the feed switches back to the ballroom, where a camera mounted up high gazes down at reporter’s doing stories on the main floor. This shot includes a sweet look at Erin Andrew’s ass. Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor again (this time for real). We’re going to see a lot of talent on display here today, but surely none will be as awe-inspiring as that. * No actual enlightening included

11:50 -- More shots from the ballroom floor, including one of Michael Crabtree. Rich Eisen and Marshall Faulk take this opportunity to praise him for his lavender shirt. There’s a joke in there somewhere, but I’m too lazy to look for it.

11:53 -- Back from commercial, we’re presented with a 3-man satellite desk where Brian Billick, Charles Davis, and Brian Billick discuss the Jets. Dukes’ microphone appears to be turned off -- nice work by the crew there, and I’m not being sarcastic.

11:57 -- Dukes’ mic is now working -- the Lord giveth, and He taketh away.

12:00pm -- High noon. Now I can start drinking alcohol without feeling guilty. Don’t get me wrong -- I’ve been drinking since dawn, it’s just that until now I’ve been feeling guilty about it.

12:01 -- Nice ponytail, Cushing. Now that was sarcasm.

12:01 -- Two good bits of info from the main desk: 1) Mike Mayock calls this the worst draft in recent memory. 2) Steve Mariucci has been nominated for an Emmy. I’m not sure which is more disappointing.

12:02 -- What the hell is that?! It looks like Bill Belichick, now there appears to be something on his face I’ve never seen there before. I know this sounds crazy, but it has all the earmarks of... a smile.

12:06 -- Belichick drops the nice guy act when Eisen asks about the Matt Cassel, giving a typically lifeless answer. This is a good thing, because Smiling Belichick was giving me cold chills down my spine.

12:25 -- The NFL network airs a retrospective on the QB class of 1983. They call Todd Blackledge "the biggest bust in Kansas City Chief history", then proceed to show him a) taking a shotgun snap to the face, and b) the worst mullet in NFL history. Somewhere, Blackledge sits in the dark listening to The Smith’s and cutting himself.

12:35 -- The Niners unveil their new jerseys. A nation says, "Meh". I like them, myself. Reminiscent of the 80’s version, which is all I ever wanted.

12:45 -- Deion introduces the top prospects in the draft. Jets fans boo him. Jets fans are in full-throat, as usual. This is really their day, more than any other. When I think "NFL Draft", I think "Jets fans booing".

12:46 -- Watching the top prospects all take the stage, I can’t help but wonder which of them will look back on this day as the highlight of not just their career, but their life. It sounds a little morbid when put like that, but it’s really morbid when you realize none of us will ever achieve such greatness. I’m making another drink.

12:59 -- John Gruden: "I’m fired up!" Gruden, fired up? I’m shocked, shocked.

1:01 -- The Net opens their coverage with a terrible, repetitive, annoying song. ESPN opens theirs with Chris Berman. This is like ‘Sophie’s Choice’, only in reverse.

1:03 -- The Commish steps to the podium to announce the first pick. I’m going on record to say I think it will be Matthew Stafford.

1:04 -- Oh my, I was right! Matthew Stafford is the #1 pick in the Draft, and the New York crowd shows it’s class by booing him and then chanting "Overrated".

1:10 -- The lambs are on the clock. Mayock says Spanolouloloulououo wants to improve the ground game, as shown by his off-season moves -- including personal favorite Mike Karney.

1:12 -- Copious shots of Mark Sanchez on his cell at his home in Orange County before the Rams pick at #2. Sanchez is doing the right thing -- chill at home, and celebrate with your friends and family instead of doing it before hundreds of strangers in person and the prying eye of the national TV camera.

1:14 -- As their time expires, the Lambs pick is in. Mayock says a team might purposely pass up their pick, insinuating the Rams might do it. Eisen corrects him that there is a pick -- Jason Smith.

1:19 -- ESPN comes back from commercial for 8 seconds before Berman says anything. I turn back to The Net.

1:22 -- The Chiefs are on the clock, and Gruden says they will go offense here, as Haley wants to give Cassel another weapon. Crabtree? Really? The Chiefs had a terrible pass rush last year and also got pushed around. And they already have Bowe.

1:23 -- The Chiefs pick is in. Eisen explains that the pick was be checked for spelling and pronunciation before it is "processed" and handed to the Commish. It’s Tyson Jackson. Note to self: Don’t listen to Jon Gruden.

1:32 -- The hosts talk about the widespread rumor that Seattle is picking Mark Sanchez, but the Seahawks select Aaron Curry. And this is why you watch from home like Sanchez is doing. If he was at Radio City, the cameras would be so far up in his grill we’d know if he trimmed his nose hairs recently or not.

1:36 -- Rich Eisen sees people on the phone and starts a rumor there might be a trade. Mayock says it could be someone moving up to snag Sanchez, or it could involve Braylon Edwards to the Eagles (but wouldn’t that involve the Browns getting another pick, not losing this one?).

1:38 -- Eisen was right -- there is a trade, and it’s the Jets! Jets fans are beside themselves, and I am too. Everybody said they liked Freeman, but could this be for Sanchez?

1:39 -- It is! It’s Mark Sanchez! The Net has him on TV at his home putting on a Jets cap before he’s even picked. Maybe he should’ve come to New York after all.

1:41 -- Most Jets fans are thrilled and cheering, but the camera is staying trained on two guys who hate the move. They’re scowling, and one clearly says, "This horrible! I’m so pissed!" I love Jets fans.

1:50 -- The Bengals take Andre Smith, and his ample breasts.

1:54 -- The Raiders are on the clock and everybody is thinking a speedy WR. Why? Because they are the Raiders. Is it Crabtree?

1:56 -- Oakland does pick a WR, but not the ones most people were talking about -- Darrius Hayward-Bey. Mayock: "A classic Al Davis pick". Meanwhile, Crabtree's still on the board. I wonder if he wishes he was watching at home.

1:59 -- The Jags are on the clock. Gruden is saying it might be Crabtree.

2:05 -- It’s Eugene Monroe. Second reminder to self: don't listen to Gruden. That makes 3 OT’s in the first 8 picks. Mayock: "He can bend!" Okaaaay.

2:06 -- Crabtree continues to slip. If he slips past Green Bay (which he should -- no way they need another WR), he'll be there for the Niners. That both excites and terrifies me. He could be a poor man’s Jerry Rice, or he could be a rich man’s Rashaun Woods.

2:08 -- And there’s Raji on the phone -- the telltale sign of an upcoming pick (or a Drew Rosenhaus production). This is happening, it’s really happening.

2:10 -- I feel like Jessie in that very special ‘Saved By the Bell’: I’m so excited... I’m so scared! I don’t know whether to root for Crabtree, or against him.

2:13 -- The Pack takes BJ Raji, and the Niners are on the clock. What will they do? I hope they don’t screw this up. They really have no choice but to take Crabtree. You just don’t see talents like that slip to you that often. They have to do it, or potentially watch while he blows up elsewhere.

2:18 -- Crabtree on the phone! And grinning! This is good. Being on the phone is always a good sign you’re about to get picked, but the fact his expression went from "My dog just got run over" to "I’m the next Jerry Rice" in two minutes means he’s about to be a Niner.

2:21 -- It’s official -- Michael Crabtree is a Niner, and I’m thrilled. It took me like 10 seconds to go from "Should we?" To "What the [SITE DECORUM] are you talking about?! Of course, we should!". In fact, I don’t know that I’ve been this excited about a pick in a long time. I knew Patrick Willis would be great, and I hoped Alex Smith and Vernon Davis would be. I honestly don’t know what Crabtree will be, but I’m damn excited to find out.

2:23 -- I click over to ESPN on the other tuner, and rewind to watch their coverage of the pick. It’s quickly followed by a interview between Crabtree and Erin Andrews -- this works on so many levels of entertainment. Great TV.

2:25 -- So Crabtree is headed to San Francisco -- at least there he won’t be the only man in a lavender shirt. See, I told you there was a joke in there somewhere.

2:26 -- The Bills select Aaron Maybin at #11, but I’m still too busy thinking about Crabtree to comment.

/goes back to picturing Crabtree beating Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for a long TD on Monday Night Football, and Ron Jaworski getting so excited while talking about his talent, he has an orgasm on national TV.

2:31 -- The Broncos take Knowshon Moreno. They could use the help at RB, but what about that porous defense?

2:33 -- The picks are coming fast and furious now as the Skins take Brian Orakpo. I like how much quicker the Draft moves now -- I used to get so bored between picks, but now the pace is much more crisp and efficient.

2:40 -- The saints pick is in, and Jamie Dukes says what many others have -- they’ll take Beanie Wells. But it’s Wells’ teammate, Malcolm Jenkins.

2:43 -- The camera catches Brian Cushing putting his hand in his nose, then his mouth. Seconds later, his gets a call clearly telling him he’s about to be picked. Apparently, the Texans just can’t resist I guy with a ponytail who eats his boogers on national TV. Who can blame them?

2:45 -- It’s official -- the Texans take Brian Cushing. One more douchebag in Texas.

2:51 -- The Chargers take Larry English at #16. I’d like to give you some informed analysis on this pick, but to be perfectly honest, I’ve never heard of Larry English.

3:01 -- Cleveland trades down again -- sending the #17 pick they got from the Jets to Tampa, who picks Josh Freeman. Cleveland must be picking up quite a few picks today. If they end up trading Braylon Edwards for picks today, they could end up setting some kind of record.

3:02 -- The guys at the mian table are all giving Gruden crap about Tampa finally drafting a big-time QB now that he’s gone. Gruden is smiling, but he clearly wants to kill them all.

3:06 -- The Broncos use their second pick in the last half-hour to select Robert Ayers, finally adding some help to their D. The Net shows video of him absolutely owning Michael Oher in a Senior Bowl practice. Mayock: "He might be a big reason Oher hasn’t been drafted yet."

3:11 -- Eisen announces that the Browns have traded down yet again. They’ve dealt the #19 pick they got from Tampa to Philly, moving down to the Eagles’ spot at #21. The Eisen: "They’re stockpiling late-round picks, and also have three 2nd’s from their trade with the Jets."

3:13 -- Who did the Eagles trade up 2 spots to nab? Jeremy Maclin. between him and DeSean Jackson, the Eagles can't say they don’t have speed at WR.

3:19 -- Detroit uses their second pick to take Brandon Pettigrew. I’m surprised -- with all the problems they have, I’d think there would be a better use of their resources than that.

3:21 -- The Browns are on the clock. Again. They can’t possibly make another trade, can they?

3:24 -- Nope, no trade -- the Browns have made a pick: Alex Mack.

3:26 -- The Vikes are on the clock, and Mayock is pushing Percy Harvin as a way to help them stretch the field. Gruden concurs.

3:28 -- The Vikes do take Percy Harvin. Remember, the last time they took a WR who tested positive for pot in college it was Randy Moss. Dope-smoking WR’s FTW!

3:30 -- As the guys from The Net all celebrate the Harvin pick, Mayock gets off the line of the day: "We’re all patting ourselves on the back here, but if ends up on the Love Boat smoking a bone, we’ve all got a problem." I think I like this guy. No way Kiper comes up with a line like that.

3:36 -- The Pats trade down, sending the #23 pick to Baltimore, who takes Michael Oher. He may have slipped further than many people thought, but this has still got to be a great day for Oher -- his journey has now officially taken him from the outhouse to the penthouse. If you haven’t already read about his story in The Blind Side, I don’t know what you’re waiting for.

3:42 -- The Falcons take Peria Jerry. Or is it Jerry Peria?

3:45 -- The Dolphins are on the clock, and the guys on The Net are making the point that Parcells likes bloodlines -- both Brian Robiskie (son of Terry) and Clay Matthews (son of Clay) are available. The Phins make their pick -- Vontae Davis, VD’s brother. I don’t think those were the type of bloodlines they were talking about.

3:50 -- Fatigue is starting to become a factor. I’m not used to working this hard on a weekend. All this drinking and eating and watching and typing has me feeling more dead than that guy Donte Stallworth ran over. Too soon?

3:52 -- Bill Belicheck is making a run at the Browns -- the pats have traded down for the second time today, and trail Cleveland by only one trade-town. The Pats entered with 11 picks in the draft, and 6 in the top 100 -- more than anybody else. They now have 13 picks overall, and 8 in the top 100.

3:53 -- The Packers get the Pats pick, trading up from #26 to take Clay Matthews.

4:00 -- The Colts select Donald Brown. That’s all i have to say about that.

4:04 -- The Bills select Eric Wood. Mayock informs us that he is "not sexy". Seeing as he is an offensive lineman, I don’t find that especially surprising.

4:09 -- The Giants (and their loud mouth fans) take Hakeem Nicks to fill their void at WR, though I still wouldn’t be surprised if they trade for a big name WR between now and training camp.

4:18 -- With the #30 pick, the Titans choose Kenny Britt to fill the gaping hole left by Brandon Jones. Gaping, I tell you. Gaping.

4:20 -- Know what time it is? Time for Percy Harvin to get high. That’s what time it is.

4:22 -- The Cards are on the clock. Eisen suggests they might take Beanie Wells, but Mayock says he’s too similar to Tim Hightower, and Faulk agrees. Seriously? I think Wells in a whole other class than Hightower.

4:28 -- Yup, the Cards take Beanie Wells. And Mayock does a quick flip-flop, saying Wells is an "upgrade". He does question his ability to stay healthy. Faulk sticks to his "same as Hightower" argument

4:30 -- The world champion Steelers cap off the 1st round by drafting Evander "Ziggy" Hood. I’m not watching ESPN, but I’d be willing to bet $1,000 Chris Berman just made a "Ziggy Stardust" reference.

4:32 -- Alright, that’s it for me. I’m TiVoing the rest of this, while I go see if my wife is still speaking to me.

2009 DN NFL Draft Live (Sort Of) Blog

ericj69 — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:54:59 -0000

Welcome ladies and gentlemen! Eric here, live from my buddy's palacial Fargo apartment. Although the flood scare has come and gone, he lives close enough to the river where it's still only about 50 yards from his place. Pretty surreal. I'm sitting here with my group of friends eagerly awaiting the draft. (Note: One of them is a Packers fan, so I'll only call him an "acquaintance".) I'll be here throughout the first round posting my thoughts and observations about everything I see in the next few hours. Be sure to check back and refresh this post every 15-30 minutes to keep up with my latest ramblings.

2:48: We're almost ready to rock! Of course the #1 pick is already decided thanks to the Detroit Lions grossly overpaying Matt Stafford last night. Over forty-one million dollars guaranteed for someone who's never played a down...only in the NFL. If this isn't a case for an NBA-style rookie salary cap, I don't know what is.

Great end-of-game here between Denver and New Orleans as a preview on ESPN...I'm still amazed that NBA coaches get paid so much to draw up plays that are only slightly more organized than 3rd grade gym class. Carmelo's desperate heave of a shot probably wasn't what George Karl drew up.

2:52: Wow that half-court shot was close! New Orleans is still alive. Now bring on what we came here for! Time for upsides, overhypes, Berman, Kiper, McShay, and of course, boos from Jets fans!

2:55: Wow, great start by ESPN--bringing out Erin Andrews and Rachel Nichols in the first 2 minutes! And Jim Schwartz, can you be any creepier in that interview? He looks ridiculously nervous...I guess I would be too if I just gave someone $41.7 million.

Side note: We stopped at the liquor store before the game, and let's just say we aren't going to run out any time soon. An excellent grab-bag of Mojo Risin', Rush River Bubblejack, Bell's Two Hearted Ale, Michelob Golden Light, Coors Light, AC&ME IPA beer, Jagermeister, and some mint-chocolate liquor we had last time we were in Fargo. Good times. The first drinking game rule: take a drink every time you hear "upside". So if I can't spell by 4:00, you know what happened.

2:59: Berman said it best--ARE YOU READY FOR SOME NFL DRAFT?!?!

3:03: Our first Roger "I AM THE LAW!" Goodell sighting. After an awkward attempt at hyping up the crowd, he announces the inevitable Matt Stafford pick. Of course, the Jets fans greet him with boos. Great start. We just decided to add "arm strength" as one of our drinking phrases.

3:07: One of my buddies' neighbors just stopped over. He's a Bucs fan that went to the University of Florida, and he claims Erin Andrews is even hotter in person. He is my new hero.

3:10: Debated drinking every time we hear "Mark Sanchez", but we all decided against the inevitable alcohol poisoning.

3:15: The Rams go with Jason Smith--smart, predictable pick there in my opinion. Bulger still has something left if he can stay upright for more than a second or two.

3:17: Our first Coors Light coach commercial of the day...I think we're going to get beaten over the head with those today.

3:20: I remember how much I used to love Berman when I was about 13...and I think that's why most sophisticated football fans don't like him.

Herm Edwards is here! "Hey coach, how would you destroy your old team with the #3 pick?" Herm Edwards was a piss-poor coach, but I think he'll actually be a pretty decent analyst. WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!

3:24: Done with beer #1...so does that mean I'll have 16 beers down by the end of the first round? Meanwhile, the Chiefs just selected Tyson Jackson. It's a stretch to pick him that high, but he's a good fit for the 3-4 scheme in KC.

3:30: That ESPN touch screen thing has to be one of the dumbest wastes of money in the history of broadcasting. Just because you have the technology doesn't mean you have to use it.

This Seattle pick is going to change how the rest of the first round goes. And they pick...Aaron Curry! I really like that pick for them, especially over Sanchez or Crabtree. Plus, Curry gave us our first crier of the draft! Congrats, you big, rich sissy. On the plus side, the big momma's boy got to talk to Erin Andrews. Awww.

Note: That Seahawks neon green is easily the worst color on any uniform in major sports. Yeesh.

3:39: Ooooh, a trade!! The Jets just traded up from 17 to 5, obvoiusly setting them up to pick Mark Sanchez. If you can make the (most of the) Jets fans at the draft cheer, you obviously made a pretty bold move. I'm not completely sold on Sanchez. He walks the NFL franchise QB walk, but it remains to be seen whether he'll back it up on the field. One solid college year doesn't make you a stud.

I love ESPN's shots of the two pouting Jet fans. It just goes to show you can't please everyone. By the way, did ESPN give out a mandate NOT to say "upside"? I don't think I've heard it once! Maybe it's only a 2nd-round word.

3:46: Not a bad haul for the Browns in return. They still get the 17th pick, which will cost about $10 million less than Sanchez, a 2nd-rounder later today, and a few bodies. If Curry was still there at #5 the Browns probably take him, but I have no problem with that move if I'm a Cleveland fan.

3:51: The Bengals pick Andre Smith instead of Eugene Monroe at tackle...this makes total sense for all the wrong reasons. A big talent with work ethic and attitude problems? Welcome to Cincinnati!

3:58: Another perfectly bad fit at #7...Darrius Heyward-Bey, aka "The Next Troy Williamson". He's perfect for the vertical passing game Al Davis has been in love with since 1979; I'm sure he'll enjoy watching passes from Russell sail over his head next year. I just bet a shot against my buddy that the Jags are going with Crabtree at 8. He took "the field". Please, Jack Del Rio, I do NOT want Jag this early in the day!

4:05: Shit. Eugene Monroe to the Jags. Kids, don't drink and blog.

4:10: Hey ESPN, quit giving the pick away before it actually happens! Obviously, the Packers take B.J. Raji at 9. My Packers buddy approves, and I must say I do too. Solid pick for that weak D in Wisconsin.

4:13: And your 2009 Brady Quinn Award for the saddest face at the NFL Draft goes to...Michael Crabtree! Can the Vikes trade up for him?? Hmm...

4:17: I thought McShay would be more heavily involved with the ESPN broadcast. I had a theory that Mel Kiper was the Paula Abdul of ESPN's draft coverage, and he was slowly getting phased out by the newer, younger, flashier replacement. But it appears that Mel still rules the roost.

4:21: And Crabtree can put on that happy face! Great pickup for the Niners. He'll have fun watching Shaun Hill's passes land at his feet next year.

4:25: Forgot to mention that we're now drinking every time Erin Andrews is on camera. Double the fun!

4:27: Aaron Maybin to the Bills. He'll have fun answering questions about T.O. next year.

4:31: The Broncos pick Knowshon Moreno. The lady from his family in the pink shirt just accidentally showed her butt crack. Whoops. I'd usually make the "and he just gained 1,000 yards" joke, but Mike "unhealthy tan" Shanahan is no longer there.

And wow, the Redskins go super-quick with Orakpo! Another good pick. Saints on the clock--they have to go defense, right?

4:36: Hey Donald Brown! Entourages...you're doing it wrong.

4:43: And the Saints do go with defense, Malcolm Jenkins. Bold prediction: the Saints secondary won't suck as bad next year.

4:45: Brian Cushing to the Texans. And if that brunette is his girlfriend, he hit the jackpot well before Houston picked him.

4:52: The Chargers go with Larry English. Believe it or not, I didn't catch too many Northern Illinois games this year so I won't pretend to know if this was a good pick or not. Meanwhile, I just bet my Packer buddy a shot that the Browns are going defense. This is the best draft ever, and the Vikes haven't even picked yet!

4:57: The Bucs strangely moved up a whopping two spots to 17...Josh Freeman here? They gave up a 6th rounder to do it; pretty bizarre.

5:01: Yep, they went with Freeman, aka "The Next Tarvaris Jackson". I thought QB-happy Jon Gruden got fired? The Bucs fan here isn't exactly thrilled with this pick, and I can see why.

5:06: The Broncos go defense with Robert Ayers. It's now a certainty that Harvin will be available at 22, but I really think Philly will go with Maclin.

Meanwhile, GREAT SportsCenter commercial with Drew Rosenhaus and Scott Van Pelt. Rosenhaus represents all that's wrong with the NFL these days, but he can poke fun at himself pretty well.

And Cleveland trades down YET AGAIN! Looks like Philly will take Maclin two picks earlier. I really like what the Browns are doing today. They have to be threatening to pick the guy that the other team wants...brilliant strategy.

5:13: Yep, Maclin to the Eagles. Let the great Harvin debate begin again...

5:15: If you haven't done the Streak for the Cash on ESPN yet, you need to start doing it. We've all been doing it here throughout the draft, and it's the most addicting game I've ever played.

5:21: The Lions continue to amaze me, going offense with Pettigrew. I guess they have another pick at 33, but they really need help on D...

5:27: Alex Mack to the Browns, who finally picked. VIKES ARE ON THE CLOCK!

THE PICK IS IN!

MICHAEL OHER LOOKS PISSED!

....

PERCY HARVIN!!!!

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, YOUR NEWEST MINNESOTA VIKING, PERCY HARVIN!

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, START YOUR BONG JOKES!!!

As I've said here many times before, I'd rather have Hakeem Nicks here. But I can't complain with the Harvin pick. He makes our offense potentially a lot more interesting...now only if Brad Childress can utilize him like he should.

I hope our site doesn't crash.

5:35: After taking a quick peek through the comments, it appears that your attitude is cautious optimism for the most part. I completely agree with you there. Meanwhile, the Pats traded their pick to the Ravens, a curious choice since they already have 11 picks stockpiled for this draft. And the Ravens pick Oher...a pick I would have also been happy with. He's a great story.

5:41: The Falcons go with Peria Jerry. I'm happy only because I had "defense" on my ESPN Streak for the Cash with that pick. Seriously guys, this game is like free sports betting crack. Go sign up now.

5:46: The Dolphins go with Vontae Davis, who was originally Gonzo's selection for the Vikings at 22. He's a stud, and a great addition to Miami. Meanwhile, I'm 4 beers and 4 Jag shots deep...now THAT'S multitasking kids! Thank goodness I decided to only blog during the first round, because typing is becoming more and more meticulous by the minute. Dude, I just used the word "meticulous". Hehe.

5:53: The Patriots are obviously copying the Browns' blueprint for success, trading their pick for the second time today to the Packers. My ~~d-bag friend~~ Packers fan buddy applauded the Clay Matthews pick by exclaiming "YES!! ANOTHER WHITE LINEBACKER!" Meanwhile, Rey Maualuga eagerly awaits his chance to hump Erin Andrews again.

6:03: The Colts go with Donald Brown...I really liked watching him in college. It gives them depth at RB with the oft-injured Addai, but I think they could have addressed a more pressing need there.

6:05: Eric Wood to the Bills. Three or four more solid OL guys and the Bills will have a good offensive line next year.

And my personal best 7-win streak on Streak for the Cash came to a crashing halt thanks to that pick. I will now bathe in hydrochloric acid.

6:09: The GEEEEEEEEE-MEN select my man-crush, Hakeem Nicks. Now I have to cheer against him Week 17...and I'll be OK with that eventually. My buddies are getting pretty drunk, especially the lightweight Packers fan here; thank goodness I'm "taking it easy" and blogging. Fargo bartenders, I apologize in advance for tonight.

6:18: The Titans go with Kenny Britt, a great "need" pick for them. Oh crap, I've been watching the draft too long; I'm talking like Mel Kiper!

6:31: The Cardinals went with Beanie Wells, and to finish off the first round, the champs went with Ziggy Hood. Wow, I'm really approving of most of these first round moves. Maybe I'm just being nice because the beer is kicking in?

Well, that concludes my live blogging for the day. Three and a half hours of fun. Check out Gonzo's second round thread for more. Enjoy the rest of the draft, and make sure to stay tuned to see what the Vikings do with their pick. I'm going to have a couple more beers (who am I kidding, way more than that) and enjoy the Fargo night life. Cheers, and don't get dunked on by Patrick Chewing!

NFL Draft Day One Wishlist

Matty I — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 04:30:10 -0000

Be sure to cast your vote in our "pick #25 poll."

We're now just hours away from the Detroit Lions being put on the clock - officially, that is - to begin the 2009 NFL Draft. So as we count down the final hours and minutes until the Miami Dolphins are on the clock, I wanted to talk quickly about my official wishlist for day one off the draft. Then, once you finish reading my ramblings, tell us your wish list for day one.

I also quickly want to remind you all that we will have complete coverage of the draft all weekend long. We'll have live threads and we'll have wrap ups at the end of each day. We'll also have a separate post for each pick made by the Dolphins. So be sure to check in early and often. And it'll all begin with our pre-draft fanpost early this afternoon.

Now to my wishlist. Note that these are in no particular order and I've left out the players who will obviously be gone - players like Michal Crabtree and Aaron Curry.

Wide Receivers
Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Brian Robiskie

I know I've been pretty vocal of late about how strongly I feel on not drafting a wide receiver with the 25th pick. But if they must, I'll be hoping and praying it's either Britt or Nicks. But what would be even better would be to land any of the three listed above with either the 44th pick or the 56th pick.

One name noticeable absent from my list is Darrius Heyward-Bey. He has "bust" written all over him. I also removed Percy Harvin from my wishlist. Too many red flags (marijuana, attitude, injuries) for my taste.

Outside Linebackers
Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Clay Matthews, Larry English, Robert Ayers, Clint Sintim, Connor Barwin, Cody Brown, Lawrence Sidbury

Lots of names up there because there are a lot of options. Unfortunately, with the increase in the number of teams running a 3-4 defense - coupled with the obvious general need for pass-rushers in this league - there is going to be a run on this position at some point in round one. That means many of the names above will be long gone by the 25th pick. And the ones that remain probably won't deserve to be picked that high. But I'll tell you this - if the Dolphins come out of the first day of the draft with one of the players listed above, I'd be very content.

One notable player I left off my wishlist is Brian Cushing. I just don't trust him and really don't want him in a Dolphins' uniform.

Cornerbacks
Vontae Davis, Darius Butler, Sean Smith, Alphonso Smith, Sherrod Martin, D.J. Moore

You all know by now that I'm really pushing for a corner with the 25th pick. I'd be thrilled with Davis or Butler at 25. I'd also be happy with Sean Smith at 25 - though some think he could still be on the board at 44. The other three, Alphonso Smith, Sherrod Martin, and D.J. Moore, I wouldn't consider drafting until 44 at the earliest. Of those three, I'd prefer Smith or Martin over Moore. I just don't think Moore has enough upside to warrant a high pick. He could be a terrific nickelback, but he doesn't have the speed to cover an outside receiver.

Players from various positions
ILB - Rey Maualuga, James Laurinaitis
NT - Ron Brace
DE - Tyson Jackson
OL - Andy Levitre (OG), Max Unger (G/C), Tyronne Green (OG), Herman Johnson (OG), Jamon Meredith (OT)
TE - Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook
S - Louis Delmas, Rashad Johnson

If the Dolphins can come away with any two of the players I've mentioned above with their three day one picks, I'll be simply ecstatic entering day two.

So now let's hear all of your wishlists...

Gonzo's Final 2009 NFL Mock Draft

Gonzo — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 02:59:02 -0000

Again with the late start, I am, fair readers. And, again, I apologize for that. It was a long day to conclude a long week here at the Gonzo house, aided primarily by the fact that truck drivers seem to have had a lot of difficulty staying on Interstate 10 over the course of the past week. Unfortunately for me, I-10 is my main road from Keesler to home, so my commute hasn't been quite what it usually is. Throw in a few dozen other things happening all at once, and it's been quite an adventure.

Speaking of adventure, tomorrow marks the date we've been waiting for ever since the final gun sounded at Super Bowl XLIII, and that's the NFL's Annual Selection Meeting. . .otherwise known as the draft. I know I haven't done a mock draft since my pre-Combine version back in February, but now I'm finally getting my final version up there after having taken everything in over the past couple of months. There have been many significant changes since the Combine, obviously, and those will be greatly reflected in this mock draft. Here, then, is the finished product. Enjoy, everybody, and we'll see you here bright and early tomorrow to prep for the draft!

Player Power Rankings
Pick	Team	Selection	Commentary
1	Detroit Lions	Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia	I'm not sold on the guy as a franchise QB. But, the Lions apparently are. . .and that's all that matters.
2	St. Louis Rams	Jason Smith, OT, Baylor	They lost Orlando Pace, the only guy on their offensive line last year that played at a level above "awful." They're rebuilding, and Smith is their cornerstone.
3	Kansas City Chiefs	Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia	Without Tony Gonzalez, I think Crabtree is a real possibility here, but in the end the Chiefs need more of a sure thing.
4	Seattle Seahawks	Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal	Matt Hasselbeck is getting up in age, and the Seahawks are getting perilously close to having to blow things up and start over. If they have to do that, Sanchez gives them a nice start.
5	Cleveland Browns	Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest	Cleveland's defense was terrible, and they haven't done much to change that. Enter Curry. . .who, in time, could be the best defender in this draft.
6	Cincinnati Bengals	Andre Smith, OT, Alabama	A guy with huge potential, but with discipline and work ethic issues as well? If that doesn't have Cincinnati written all over it, I don't know what does.
7	Oakland Raiders	Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland	Surprised by Heyward-Bey over Crabtree AND Maclin? Let me introduce you to Raiders' owner Al Davis.
8	Jacksonville Jaguars	Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech	The Jags have drafted some real flops at WR in the first round in their brief history. I don't foresee Crabtree joining the likes of Matt Jones and Reggie Williams.
9	Green Bay Packers	B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College	The Packers are shifting to the 3-4, and don't have the personnel right now to do it. Raji would be a nice start for them as the nose in the middle of the defensive line.
10	San Francisco 49ers	Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas	San Francisco could go a couple different directions here, but they need to generate more pressure on the QB, and Orakpo can give them that.
11	Buffalo Bills	Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee	One of the biggest risers in the draft in recent weeks, he fills a spot at DE for the Bills, which is one of their big needs. What about tackle? Wait until #28.
12	Denver Broncos	Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State	The Denver defense needs some serious re-tooling, and Jackson was born to play end in a 3-4 scheme. He'll be a great fit in Denver.
13	Washington Redskins	Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi	Don't be surprised to see the 'Skins try to trade up for one of the big two quarterbacks. If they stay at this spot, they could use some help on the O-line, and Oher is a grea talent.
14	New Orleans Saints	Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State	The Saints' secondary has been awful since. . .well, for a long time. Some folks aren't sure whether Jenkins is a corner or a safety, but whichever he is, he'll be an instant upgrade in the Big Easy.
15	Houston Texans	Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State	One of the draft's more interesting players, he could be a big asset to a Houston team that needs to build a defense that's on par with their explosive offense.
16	San Diego Chargers	Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal	The draft's best pure MLB won't have to move far to reach his NFL home, and he'll give Charger fans visions of Junior Seau sooner rather than later.
17	New York Jets	Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State	Josh Freeman would be a bit too big a reach here, in my opinion, so the J-E-T-S grab the best TE in the draft. He'll provide a nice target for whatever warm body the Jets start at QB.
18	Denver Broncos (from Chicago)	Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State	Did I mention earlier that Denver needs defense? Because they do. Brown could be a terror off of the edge if he can stay healthy
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri	The Bucs are allegedly in love with Josh Freeman, but Maclin falling to this spot would just be too big a gift for Tampa to pass up.
20	Detroit Lions (from Dallas)	Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal	Having passed on Aaron Curry at #1, the Lions fill one of their linebacker spots with the son of the former Cleveland Browns great. His teammate, Brian Cushing, could get a look here, too.
21	Philadelphia Eagles	Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia	The Eagles filled their OT hole by acquiring Jason Peters (for too high a price, IMO). Now, they get themselves some Brian Westbrook insurance.
22	Minnesota Vikings	Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois	We detailed this pick yesterday, and I still maintain that Davis is the best CB in the 2009 NFL Draft. Great value for Minnesota here.
23	New England Patriots	Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut	The Patriots' secondary was exposed as pretty awful when their offense wasn't scoring 50 every time out and they actually had to cover somebody. Butler is a great athlete who should start right away for the Pats.
24	Atlanta Falcons	Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi	Having acquired the TE they were looking for, the Falcons can look for some space eaters in the middle, and Jerry is a damn good one. Should start immediately.
25	Miami Dolphins	Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest	The multi-faceted Smith will upgrade a suspect Miami secondary, and can also assist Ted Ginn's family in the return game, should the need arise.
26	Baltimore Ravens	Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina	So much for receivers getting pushed to Round 2, huh? Nicks will give Joe Flacco a nice target as he continues his development from 2008.
27	Indianapolis Colts	Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State	The Colts need a better RB than Joseph Addai, and though a WR might be tempting for them here, Wells is a better fit, in my opinion.
28	Buffalo Bills (from Carolina via Philadelphia)	Eben Britton, OT, Arizona	Now the Bills can get a good value in Britton, who can slide in at RT and immediately contribute to what could be an explosive Buffalo offense.
29	New York Giants	Percy Harvin, WR, Florida	Guy that likes to smoke pot before job interviews and seems to enjoy the spotlight? Welcome to New York, Percy!
30	Tennessee Titans	Evander Hood, DT, Missouri	The Titals don't like to draft receivers in Round 1, and so they set about trying to find someone to replace Albert Haynesworth. Good luck with that.
31	Arizona Cardinals	Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut	Edgerrin James is angry, and none of Arizona's other running backs are really anything special, so the defending NFC Champs grab the best running back left in Brown.
32	Pittsburgh Steelers	Alex Mack, C, California	Mack just has "Steeler" written all over him. Tough, smart, hard-working. . .it's not every day a guy could walk in and just immediately start for the World Champs, but Mack has a distinct chance at doing so if he's the pick.