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South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

ACC Roundtable: Pre-Season Edition

FSUncensored — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:43:30 -0000

Welcome readers of CBS Sports!

The Atlantic Coast Conference was quite the enigma in 2008. The ACC had 10 bowl teams and yet had no teams in the top 10 at seasons end. The ACC had the best non-conference performance among the BCS conferences, and yet nobody seemed to notice. Why is this?

The ACC isn't sexy. America loves sexy and in college football, offense is sexy. The ACC, on the other hand, is a defensive conference. Six of the ACC's head coaches have a background on the defensive side of the ball. Compare that to the Big 12, where only three of the head coaches have a defensive background. Head coach personalities are often reflected in the play of their teams, and that is the case with the ACC. The ACC was the best defensive conference in 2008, but again, few noticed. 5 ACC teams had a top 20 defense in 2008, and all but two had a defense in the top half of college football. No other conference came close. Wake Forest featured 4 Defensive NFL draft picks in the first 4 rounds, including the #4 overall pick in linbebacker Aaron Curry. That same Wake Forest team beat media darling Ole Miss and surprising Baylor out of conference, yet received little publicity for doing so with a 4-4 record in conference.

The ACC's style is downright boring. The majority of ACC coaches are very conservative. They punt. They play the field position game. They don't run wide-open offenses. The ACC has the lowest average margin of victory of all the major conferences. The games are all close, because all the teams are talented. There are no off-weeks in the ACC. Teams who overlook an opponent lost to that opponent more often than not. In many ways, the ACC resembles the NFL. People enjoy NFL football, but there isn't a higher-scoring alternative played on Sundays. As Tony Barnhart writes, the NFL loves the ACC. Over the last 5 years, the ACC has the most first round picks on defense.

And while the ACC plays great defense, they also have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Most don't realize the good offense being played because of the defensive nature of the conference. 4 of the first 9 draft choices last year were from the ACC and 3 of those were offensive players. The last two 1st round QB's chosen from the ACC have been big time hits (Matt Ryan and Phillip RIvers), in no small part because of the excellent defenses they faced in the ACC.

In 2009 though, the ACC might put a few more points on the scoreboard, and catch the eyes of some voters who ignored the conference last year, as more offensive-minded coaches gain control, and young quarterbacks become experienced veterans. Inside, we preview the ACC with the help of some of the best writers who cover the ACC, in this first edition of the ACC Roundtable!

We asked each writer three question sets about their team.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?
The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?
Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Atlantic Division

Boston College won the ACC Atlantic last year by virtue of a tiebreaker over FSU and Maryland.

ATLANTIC	CONF. W-L	OVERALL W-L
Florida State	5-3	9-4
Boston College*	5-3	9-5
Maryland	4-4	8-5
Wake Forest	4-4	8-5
Clemson	4-4	7-6
North Carolina State	4-4	6-7

Talk about parity! The entire Atlantic division was bowl eligible, and every team was within 1 game of playing for the conference championship. This year, things look to be slightly more spread out, as several teams seem poised to take a big step forwards or backwards.

Forget the ACC writer's picks. Let's have a look at the current vegas odds:

9/4 Florida State
7/2 Clemson
7/2 North Carolina State
6/1 Wake Forest
9/1 Maryland
21/1 Boston College

There's a wide divide between the top three and the next two, and then a huge gap between everyone and Boston College. So let's start with Boston College.

Boston College

Boston College has a new head coach in Frank Spaziani this season after their head coach (Jeff Jagodzinski) left the team to pursue NFL opportunities. Spaziani was the Eagle's excellent defensive coordinator.

In 2008, Boston College had arguably the best defense in the nation (with USC and UF having legitimate claims as well). BC had two monsters in the middle. Over 650lbs of defensive tackle tandem in B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, who would be selected in rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL draft, respectively. They also had a Butkus Award Finalist in linebacker Mark Herzlich, a certain 1st round pick had he elected to leave school. Tragically, he decided to return to school and was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer this off-season. Not many schools have three or four early round draft choice types on defense, but BC had just that in 2008, and they rode that defense to the ACC championship game. Boston College notched an incredible 26 interceptions, which led the nation. They did this by dominating 1st and 2nd down with their huge defensive line and linebacking corps, which allowed their secondary to focus almost solely on the pass. Interceptions come on 3rd and long and BC was great at forcing opposing offenses into 3rd and long. This year, BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season, and the burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that out opposing offenses in tough situations? BC hopes for the former but Vegas seems to think it is the latter.

On offense, BC was not great, but they weren't as bad as some might believe. Consider that they had to face the excellent defenses of Virgina Tech (twice), North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida State, and their numbers look a bit better. They have either the best or second-best offensive line in the ACC, led by Center Matt Tenannt and Left Tackle Anthony Costanzo, both of whom should eventually be first day draft choices. The wide receivers are experienced and are led by Rich Gunnell. The major question is quarterback, which our BC writers discuss below.

Your Boston College writers are Brian and Jeff of BC Interruption, one of the leading Boston College websites.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

BC will likely be better on the offensive side of the ball and worse on the defense side. Overall, this is probably a net loss. Unfortunately, this will show in the Eagles' final record. Notre Dame has a better chance of beating the Eagles this year (the game in South Bend). Our game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is nearly a sure loss, and it's difficult to find definite wins on our ACC schedule. A record of 9-3 (5-3 ACC) is likely a best, best case scenario with anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 a possibility. In all liklihood the Eagles won't surpass their 2008 win total.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't know if you can call it an injury per se, but obviously the biggest void for the Eagles to fill this season is in the linebacking corps with the loss of All-American Linebacker Mark Herzlich. Add to this the uncertainty of when Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin will return from tearing his Achilles back in March, and the Eagles will need newcomers to step up at linebacker. The Eagles will look to sophomores Dominick LeGrande and Will Thompson to fill the holes left by Herzlich and McLaughlin. Spaziani will likely also rotate in redshirt freshmen Alex DiSanzo and Nick Clancy as well as senior Kevin Distaso. Of that group, however, only Will Thompson has significant experience as he played behind Robert Francois. These Eagles will hopefully step up, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to completely fill the void left by Herzlich and McLaughlin.

Incumbent starting quarterback Dominique Davis leaving for academic reasons might actually be a blessing in disguise. This allowed the Eagles to go out and recruit another quarterback in Dave Shinskie, who appears to be the front-runner for the starting position. Also, where Jeff Jagodzinski and Steve Logan favored more of the duel-threat style quarterback (Davis and Tuggle), early it appears Frank Spaziani and OC Gary Tranquill favor more of the traditional, pro-style quarterback (Shinskie, Marscovetra, Rettig, Bordner).

Less importantly, it would have been nice to see WR Clarence Megwa back in pads during the Eagles opening practices, however Megwa injured his right hand and has had to sit out of practice. If Megwa can get back on the field, he will join a talented wide receiving corps that has the potential to be one of the better units in the conference (provided the starting QB can get them the ball). Still, we are glad Megwa is back and has recovered from a fairly gruesome broken leg injury suffered vs. Clemson last season. Again, if the QB can get the receivers the ball, I would expect big things from seniors Rich Gunnell, Clarence Megwa and Justin Jarvis. Hopefully, Ifeanyi Momah will step up and serve as more than a goal-line, possession receiver.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Without a doubt, the preseason focus is on the starting quarterback position. We will only go as far as our starting quarterback will take us. Right now, the candidates are trying to shake off the rust in practice as no QB has any FBS game experience.

The Eagles proved last year that they could make noise in the ACC simply by having a competent, game-managing quarterback. If David Shinskie (or Tuggle/Marscovetra) can manage the game and not lose games a la Chris Crane, the Eagles will likely live up to or slightly surpass their preseason expectations. However, the starting quarterback will have to step up their game and be even better than Crane was last season if Eagles fans expect the team to overachieve this season. There are too many questions on the defensive side of the ball this season. To overachieve, BC will have to win the games they won last year with defense (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech round 1, Florida State) with their offense.

Boston College seems to always exceed expectations. Losing their highly regarded head coach and their three best players from a season ago make Boston College a major longshot to win the division this season. Very few teams have the ability to replace the players BC lost, and the Eagles aren't in that group of teams. Bowl Eligibility should be considered a major victory for the Eagles.

Key Note: Boston College's defensive line and linebackers are 160lbs lighter this year than last year (1902 to 1742). BC was huge in the front-7 in 2008, and this is a major drop-off.

Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 ACC) BC's off-season was rather devastating and will be too much to overcome.

Maryland Terrapins

Maryland was quite the enigma in 2008. They beat bowl teams in Nevada, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Cal, yet lost to middle Tennessee State and were shut out by Virginia! They do return their quarterback a running back, but their offensive line and wide receivers are major question marks. They return just 4 starters on defense, and are switching from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, despite having a serious lack of depth along the defensive line.

Your Maryland writer is Ben Broman, of the excellent Maryland website Testudo Times:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Short version: They'll be better, but the record won't be.

There's a lot to like about Maryland this year - a game-seasoned, fifth-year senior QB; a deep, talented stable of RBs with a frontline All-ACC starter; nine (yes, nine) game-ready WRs; a likely improved secondary; and leaders returning from the linebacking corps. The new defense, instilled by former UMass head coach Don Brown, has been getting rave reviews and has torn through the offense without fail so far, utilizing surprise blitzes and press coverage. While the defensive line has been getting a bad rap in the media, the new scheme will take a lot of pressure off them, and the projected starters all either have experience or were highly touted out of HS. There's only one problem, but it's a sizable one: the offensive line. The group is talented, but very, very young, which could render all those skill players moot, particularly early on as they adapt to playing when it counts.

By the end of the year, I'm fairly confident that the line will have gelled together and the weak spots will have been shored up, meaning this team will be a bear to play late in the season. At that point, there's no doubt in my mind this year's Maryland will be better than last year's. They might even be better already. But last year's Maryland overachieved a little, winning in spite of a constant prevent defense; so while they may win head-to-head, besting 8 wins may be tough to do, especially in an improved ACC.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Injuries have been quiet in College Park this off-season. The only major player lost was probable starting DT Dion Armstrong. He left the team due to academic ineligibility and fitness problems, but no one was really counting on his presence come September (these issues had been known for awhile). He'll be replaced by redshirt freshman A.J. Francis and true freshman Zach Kerr. Both should be able to do an adequate job in filling that hole - both are as talented as Armstrong, and very underrated.

There are a few other newcomers who could contribute, notably PK Nick Ferrara, G Pete White, LBs Darin Drakeford and Avery Murray, and RBs Caleb Porzel and D.J. Adams. Ferrara is a scholarship kicker, so you'd expect him to be the starter. White is a massive, talented guard, a position that doesn't have a lot of depth. Both Drakeford and Murray enrolled in the spring to get a head start, and, because there's not a lot of depth at LB, could find themselves backups. Neither Porzel nor Adams are needed, but they're two of the most skilled and athletic players Maryland's brought in a long time, and have been impressing Ralph Friedgen in practice. Friedgen's known to be quick to burn RB redshirts, so the best of the two may see the field.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Unquestionably, the offensive line. As I've already said, they're the one huge weakness. If they can show that they're better than what people are saying, even if that only ends up being average, I'll be very confident about this team. If I had to single out one guy, I'd say LG Lamar Young - he's very talented, but reportedly has some issues with attitude, an issue a group this young doesn't need to deal with.

While he wasn't always incredibly productive, teams had to pay a ton of attention to wide receiver Darious Heyward-Bey. That won't be the case in 2009 as Bey is gone to the NFL (#7 overall choice.)

This Maryland team should take a step back. Their over/under for wins in vegas is 6, and there are 9/2 odds available if you are brave enough to project the Terps to win more than 6 games. Like Boston College, bowl eligibility should be considered a major victory for this team. They lost a bunch. The opening game at Cal is very likely to be a loss, probably of the blowout variety. They then get two very winnable games against James Madison and Middle Tennessee State, but Maryland should be big underdogs in 5 of their final 9 games. To be bowl eligible, they will need to win against Rutgers, Virginia, at Duke, & Boston College, or pull a big upset for each of those they lose.

This is Maryland, so anything crazy is possible, but poor line play on both offense and defense, combined with a lack of quality depth should keep the Terps home during Bowl Season. The Terps cannot sustain any injuries, particularly on defense. Projection: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

Wake Forest

Wake Forest had one of the best defenses in the nation last season, as profiled above. How they replace the departed defensive players and the play of their offensive line are the major issues facing the Deacons this year.

The best site for Wake Forest coverage is undoubtedly Blogger So Dear, the brainchild of Martin Rickman.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Wake Forest probably won't be better than last year, but they do have some chance. A program like Wake Forest can't replace 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round NFL draft choices on defense in one season, but they do have a 4-year starter at quarterback and stable of runningbacks. Vegas odds indicate it's very likely that Wake wins 7 games or fewer, but finishing 4-4 in conference play is doable, even if the team won't be as good, probably because of easier games against Boston College and Maryland.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Wake has been lucky this off-season and hasn't suffered any major injuries of note.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The offensive line. All five starters return from a group that was horrible last year, albeit somewhat because of injury. Wake must get their running game in order so that QB Riley Skinner doesn't have to force so many passes.

Expect Wake's defense to take a step back this season. Like Boston College, they depended largely on takeaways and those probably won't be there in the same quantity that they were last season. Only 4 starters back on defense puts extra pressure on the offense to win some early games. The game against Stanford should be particularly telling, as the Cardinal can really put up the points. If the offense can carry this team early, they have a shot to reach 8 wins. If the offense struggles, or the defense is worse than expected, Wake will be watching bowl season from their couch. Wake will likely be favored in 7 of their games, and 7 wins seems about right for this squad, as they pull off one upset and drop one game they should win, and take a minor step back from their fantastic 2008 season. Projection: 7-5, (3-5 ACC)

North Carolina State Wolfpack

The 'Pack almost had two different seasons in 2008. WIth and without quarterback Russel Wilson:

Wilson had an incredible 17-1 TD/ INT ratio last year.

via Dr. Saturday

They also were the only team in the conference that featured an offense that was significantly better than their defense (Georgia Tech an FSU also had offenses which were better than their defenses, but not close to the huge discrepancy the Wolfpack had).

With that in mind, we turn to James C. of the sarcastically named Yet Another NC State Sports Blog

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Yes, State will be better this year, and yes, it will show up in the record. The reasons are simple: a capable backup quarterback for Russell Wilson and eight home games on the schedule.

State faltered last season when forced to call upon the quarterbacks on the depth chart behind Wilson. Both Harrison Beck and Daniel Evans were turnover machines; to a person, every State fan that I've talked to knew the PapaJohns.com Bowl was over the moment it was announced Wilson wouldn't return for the second half. Forget the fact that State was up by 11...the game was over at that point.

This season should be different, however. Six-foot-six redshirt freshman QB Mike Glennon -- the best looking quarterback prospect State has had on campus since Philip Rivers -- throws a crisp ball with a quick release and, per teammates, is deceptively quick in the pocket. He's an unknown commodity at this point, but he continues to impress Tom O'Brien in practice. He's made more than one allusion to Matt Ryan when speaking of the young Glennon.

With eight home games and two games against FCS opponents (a last- second change to the schedule required picking up a second FCS opponent), State's record is almost guaranteed to be better this season. Out of conference, I see State going 3-1 against its two FCS foes and South Carolina and Pitt. Going .500 over the remaining conference slate would still put the Pack at 7-5 and into a bowl bid.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't think the ceiling for the Pack is as high as it was before losing All-Conference linebacker Nate Irving. Irving was the driving force behind State's defense last season when healthy, and he stood to be one of the league's best defenders before a car accident put him out of commission for the year. I don't know that any one player on State's roster can replace Irving, but Dwayne Maddox and Terrell Manning are two youngsters that could potentially make some noise in his place.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

State needs a running game. Bad. If Russell Wilson is to remain healthy for the full 12 games, State's running game has to step up and take some pressure off him. While the sight of Wilson scrambling is a nightmarish one for opposing defenses, it also puts the collective hearts of Wolfpack fans in their throats, hoping and praying this isn't the run that puts him out of commission for the rest of the year. So two units must step their games up in '09 -- the running backs and the offensive line. I'm a believer that everything on offense flows through the play of the OL, so if that comes together then I think everything else will fall into place. But bottom line -- State needs a two-pronged attack on offense to succeed this season.

Where I might've gotten brave in predicting nine or maybe even 10 wins prior to Irving's injury, I'm now thinking State will finish the regular season 8-4. That would be a solid step up and set the table for 2010 to be a tremendous season.

While NC State's offense was really a tale of two seasons, their defense was not. State's defense was just bad last season- definitely in the bottom half of the country. WIthout Irving, can they really be better? The signs of improvement at the end of last season were likely a product of playing two bad offenses (Wake and Duke), and two really sloppy offenses (Miami and North Carolina- combined 9 turnovers).

I applaud James for not being a homer in his evaluation and am torn between 8-4 and 7-5. There's a real chance State can start 7-0, but again, it depends on the offense taking a small step forward and the defense taking a big step forward. With Irving, I'd have said 8-4, but without Irving, I expect the 'Pack to lose 4 of their final 5 games, after starting 5-1, as they end up 7-5 (4-4 ACC).

Clemson

There are two fine Clemson websites out there for Clemson fans. First, Block-C (formerly Danny Ford is God), and ClempsonFootball.

Back on June 4th, I wrote this on why Clemson could win the Atlantic Division. It did not go over well with many 'Nole fans.

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. Clemson has 15 starters from those 3 classes. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE.

Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Clemson 2009 looks to be similar to Ole Miss 2008. In 2007, Ole Miss:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Fell way short of expectations (like Clemson)
* Fired their coach. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, Ole Miss team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line comprised almost entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

Since I wrote that, a few things have happened to Clemson. They have remained mostly healthy, and named baseball star Kyle Parker their starting quarterback. The defense should againbe among the nation's best as they return almost everyone, including maybe the Nation's best defensive line. Playing at home against FSU, getting a bye week before the 'Noles (and a de facto bye week before Georgia Tech), and getting to play UVA (2 tough games against the Coastal Division) gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

The key will come down to how Clemson plays in 4 key ACC games. @ Georgia Tech, @ Miami, v. Florida State, and @ NC State. Provided they stay healthy on the offensive line, the offense should be improved.

Projection: 9-3 (5-3 ACC).

Florida State

FSU is covered here extensively. The Seminole offense was the best in the conference last year, and the defense was above average in the conference and top 25 nationally.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

FSU should be significantly better this season, but their record might not reflect it. FSU plays the toughest schedule in the nation, per Phil Steele and numerous other sources.

Sep. 7	Miami-FL	8, ESPN
Sep. 12	Jacksonville St.	6, ESPN360.com
Sep. 19	at BYU	7, VERSUS
Sep. 26	South Florida	TBA
Oct. 3	at Boston College	TBA
Oct. 10	Georgia Tech	TBA
Oct. 22	at North Carolina	8, ESPN
Oct. 31	NC State	TBA
Nov. 7	at Clemson	TBA
Nov. 14	at Wake Forest	TBA
Nov. 21	Maryland	TBA
Nov. 28	at Florida	3:30, CBS

It's doubtful any team would run through that slate unscathed, including the National Championship favorites. The 2009 FSU team would likely win 1 or 2 more games against last year's schedule. Against this current schedule, it is anyone's guess.

FSU lost fullbacks Seddrick Holloway and Marcus Sims to attrition, but neither projected to be a serious contributor as FSU moves to more two tight-end sets and away from the fullback.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The interior of the defensive line. FSU's run defense was horrible last season.

The defense cannot allow opposing offenses to hold onto the ball forever like some did last season. Getting the ball back to the offense will be key for FSU, as the offense will wear out opposing defenses.

Projection: FSU goes 9-3, 6-2 in the ACC, losing to UF, Clemson, and one other team in conference.

Coastal Division

Vegas says 4 teams have a legit shot to win this division: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. Duke and Virginia do not and neither have a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.

Let's start in reverse order, with VTech up first.

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech won the ACC last year and have won the Coastal division for almost every year it has existed. We have two ACC writers: GobblerCountry and College Game Balls. Take it away boys:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

GC: We'll be better and it will show in our record. He people over-hyping the Hokies this preseason forget that they're a team that lost four games last season. Tech may not win the ACC this year, but they won't lose four regular season games, either.

The talent on the offense has improved by leaps and bounds. It's just up to our offensive coordinator to utilize that talent. Other than quarterback, I think this team has better talent across the board than the 1999 team. But that team had a true difference-maker at quarterback.

If Tyrod Taylor turns into anything resembling a difference-maker, we'll be a special team.

CGB: If we aren't better, then I want my proverbial money back. 2008 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Hokies and lo and behold we win ten games (again), the ACC and the Orange Bowl. The only key players missing from ‘08 in ‘09 are DE Orion Martin, CB Macho Harris, LBs Purnell Sturdivant, Brent Warren and sigh QB Sean Glennon. With Bud Foster in charge I have faith we'll be able to overcome the losses on defense and the offense will be able to do more than enough to win ACC games.

As for our record, I am calling for us to win 11 games which is one better than last year. That's assuming we make it to and win the ACC Championship. That's why our trip to Atlanta is so crucial. And I'm not talking about the game versus Alabama, but our return trip against Georgia Tech. That's the must win game on our schedule.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

GC: We lost our returning leading rusher, battering ram and bell cow in Darren Evans. Without him, the Hokies no longer have someone they can rely on in short-yardage situations.

The newcomers expected to have an impact are led by Ryan Williams, who I expect to get the bulk of the carries by the middle of the season. Williams' debut is the most anticipated by Hokie fans since that of Kevin Jones. He's supposed to be a home run hitter who can break any play for six points.

CGB: As far as the Hokies are concerned these two questions go hand-in-hand. At the beginning of camp Darren Evans, our only returning running back with any major carries, tore his ACL and was zonked for the year. Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Josh Oglesby and Tony Gregory are grinding it out in camp to see who is going to carry the rock come Bama time. They have a whopping 38 collegiate carries among them, 100% belonging to practice-killa-game-chilla Oglesby.

Williams and Wilson are the big play threats missing from the backfield over the past couple of seasons and because of the hype surrounding their recruitment most Hokies want to see them leading the ground attack. So far replacing Evans has gone as well as filling out a TPS Report. Williams is a me-ist and Oglesby and Wilson suffered their own nagging injuries. Ultimately, they'll get their yards but none of these guys are going to punish defenses like Evans did.

Both Sergio Render (Phil Steele #1 guard) and Jason Worilds (Preseason ACC 1st Team) had off-season shoulder surgery that forced them to miss spring ball. They're both healthy and practicing, but worth keeping an eye on.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

GC: Just like every other year for the Hokies, it's the offensive line. They gave up the more sacks than any other ACC team even though they had a mobile quarterback under center for most of their games. The run blocking came along by the end of last year when Tech rolled up big rushing numbers against BC and Cincinnati. Hopefully that momentum can continue into 2009 and we can get better pass blocking.

CGB: Tyrod Taylor, our young but seasoned receivers Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts, our offensive line, whoever replaces Darren Evans at running back and finally the entire offensive coaching staff Billy Hite, Curt Newsome and Bryan Stinespring need to get their act in check if we are going to make some national noise. Yes I am that frustrated with our offense over the last four seasons. The only offensive player I left off the list is TE Greg Boone because he catches balls, knocks defenders on their butt and takes snaps out of the Wild Turkey. He does it all excellently and if necessary he should be called on to gain our tough yards.

Projection: 9-3 (6-2 ACC). The Hokies hopes for a national title are unrealistic. They are in the group of very good but not elite ACC teams. They'll be recognized as the best ACC team, but that's because of their schedule- they avoid FSU and Clemson (the Atlantic's two best teams), and their road games are @ Duke, @ East Carolina, @ Maryland, and @ Virginia (only one of those teams should make a bowl game). Virginia Tech isn't significantly better than abut 4 other ACC teams, but their ACC schedule is far and away the easiest of any ACC team, with all of their tough games coming at home (except Georgia Tech).

Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

Georgia Tech surprised everyone last year under new Head Coach Paul Johnson. They have an excellent offensive attack that forces the defense to be very disciplined and defend every inch of the field. This is a team that put up 40+ on Georgia and 30+ on a number of other good defenses.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Your writers are Winfield Featherson, Bird, and Dane, of From The Rumble Seat

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Our team will definitely be better in all aspects offensively - QB play, running backs, wide receivers, and line play. Historically, Paul Johnson's teams always increase their production in both the passing and the running game during his second year as head coach. Our defense will have a gaping hole on the defensive line (except for standout end Derrick Morgan) but it will be greatly strengthened by a strong corps of linebackers and a veteran secondary.

Despite improvements in all positions minus the D-line, the ACC makes for a helluva conference slate alongside three SEC OOC games. It's possible that GT's record may not improve on last year's 9 wins but the team will improve by leaps and bounds. However, anything short of 9 wins would be a big disappointment for a majority of the optimistic Yellow Jacket faithful.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

First off, a majority of our injuries were minor and not season-threatening. The major set back was obviously Jaybo Shaw, our competent backup to Josh Nesbitt. He'll be succeeded by a lot of raw redshirt and true freshmen if CPJ decides to put a medical redshirt on Shaw. Roddie Jones' wrist injury set him back as far as contact drills go but it shouldn't limit his playing time and overall effectiveness. And hopefully all of our LB's will be good as gold come Jacksonville State though Kyle Jackson continues to have problems with his foot.

The best newcomer is definitely going to be Jarrard Tarrant. He had his assault charges dropped against him in February that kept him off the 2008 squad. Tarrant brings speed to the secondary and competency at punt returns - a HUGE PROBLEM for GT since Gailey's tenure. Look for Tarrant to play a key role on defense and in the field position battle.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

With Jaybo Shaw out, Tevin Washington and David Sims must prove themselves as comparable backups. This will be trial by fire as they will certainly be used in games. The kicking game, though minor in Paul Johnson's system, must stay strong. Scott Blair will probably be limited to only PAT's which will keep his leg from dying half way through the season. Various questions also surround our defensive line as we lost multiple players to the NFL.

Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC). GTech's schedule is very tough, with road games at Miami and Florida State. 9-3 would not surprise me.

Miami Hurricanes

A young Miami team went 7-6 last season behind an emerging offense and a poor defense. They then fired their offensive coordinator. Go figure. See the diagram above (under FSU) and look at how bad Miami's run defense was. Allowing 5 yards per rush attempt won't win many games. If Miami is to contend for the coastal division championship, they must shore up their run defense issues.

On offense, Miami has new coordinator Mark Wjipple, who will run a pro-style offense with lots of passes to the tight ends and running backs, QB Jacorry Harriss, RB's Cooper and James, and a ton of talented receivers including Aldarious Johnson and LaRon Byrd. Miami's only question on offense is their offensive line, which played poorly in 2008. If they are better, Miami will challenge FSU and Georgia Tech for the conference's top offense (and possibly for the division).

Unlike Virginia Tech, Miami plays both Clemson and FSU. They also play Oklahoma. But Miami is also very talented and if they beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, they have a shot at the division. Prediction: Miami will be a better team in 2009, but their record will again be 7-5 (4-4 ACC) due to a tough schedule.

For much more in-depth canes coverage, visit 7thFloorBlog.com

North Carolia Tarheels

North Carolina is doing a great rebuilding job under Butch Davis, who is bringing renewed energy to Chapel Hill, along with a big increase in talent.

On offense, Carolina lost all of their receivers (including two NFL guys), and their offensive line is very shaky. They go return their quarterback in T.J. Yates and a variety of solid runners, led by Shawn Droughn. Can they replace their lost wide receivers? Doubtful, but if the O-Line gels quickly they could use their running game to make up the difference.

Carolina had one of the better defenses in the nation last year, and should again excel on that side of the ball. They boast a huge front-7 which is excellent at stopping the run, allowing the secondary to play the pass.

Projection: 8-4 (4-4 ACC) UNC runs their weak non-conference slate with easy, wins at home against Duke and Virginia, and taking two of: @ GTech, FSU, @ Virginia Tech, Miami, @ Boston College, and @ NCST.

Virginia

Your writer is Brendan of From Old Virginia. Take it away, Brendan:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.

But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.

None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.

As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers (original question posed was poorly phrased), and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.

On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.

I expect UVA to narrowly miss out on a bowl game, going 5-7 (2-6 ACC). If they spring an upset against TCU, Maryland, or Georgia Tech, the Cavs will be bowling. But that also assumes they don't have any letdowns, which is probably unrealistic, so 5-7 it is.

Duke

The Blue Devils lost a ton from the surprising 2008 team. No team lost more letterman than Duke. Duke should continue to have one of the worst offenses in the country, and will be horrible running the ball. The defense should be slightly below average, which for Duke, is acceptable. Prediction: 2-10 (0-8). This is a major rebuilding year for Duke despite the recognizeable name at quarterback.

General ACC

Brandon Rink-On of http://ontheb-rink.com/blog answered the questions for us from a different perspective. Enjoy:

Every team believes they are a little better going into the season, but who will make the most improvement from season-to-season this year in the ACC? Georgia Tech? I don't know-last season was pretty good for
them. Clemson? Well, there are just too many unknowns there. My pick is Miami. They were a lot better team than they showed(or were coached) last season and should be more impressive this season. The
Canes will be led by a nasty defense that will wreak havoc on the Coastal. And the new offensive scheme has to be better than whatever their previous OC Turner was doing(which was?).

In the record, it will not quite translate into a division title, but they will be in contention(which is more than you can say for the last few years).

Virginia Tech is an easy one with the loss of one Darren Evans and key newcomer in Ryan Williams, but another team has caught my eye in the offseason. Let's say my team is Clemson, they lose two offensive
lineman, Barry Humphries to transfer and J.K. Jay to a back injury, and have a couple guys dinged up like their only real returning WR in Jacoby Ford. The starting five on the line is pretty solid for the Tigers, but

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East