SB Nation - Jamelle Eugene

2009 Virginia Tech Football: What to Watch vs. North Carolina State

furrer4heisman — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:15:08 -0000

by Gerry Broome - AP

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The Team

It's senior day for the Hokies. Hopefully they'll send guys like Greg Boone, Cody Grimm and Kam Chancellor off with a win.

Virginia Tech Offense vs. NC State Defense

Looking at the NC State defense, you'd think its strength would be its defensive line. However, the Wolfpack have had just 10 sacks in six conference games, tied for 10th in the ACC.
The also gives up 4.8 yards per carry in league play, 11th and ahead of only Florida State. Their 16 rushing touchdowns allowed in conference play is also higher than any other team but FSU.
NC State has also had trouble against the pass this season. It's allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt in league play, 10th in the ACC.
Overall, NC State is allowing 6.3 yards per play in ACC games, only ahead of FSU and is giving up 41.7 points per game in conference play, worst in the ACC.
Simply put, this is the worst defense the Hokies will play all season. It will be up to Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams and the offense to take advantage of it.
Look for the Hokies to give the Pack a heavy dose of Ryan Williams to try to and set up play action passes deep to guys like Jarrett Boykin. Danny Coale should also have a big game in the middle of the field.

Virginia Tech Defense vs. NC State Offense

NC State QB Russell Wilson was last year's ACC rookie of the year and was the All-ACC QB. A lot of that can be somewhat attributed to his TD:INT ratio, which was an astounding 17:1. This year he's thrown 10 interceptions and 26 TDs.
While Russell's INTs have gone up significantly, his yards per attempt, completion percentage and passer rating have also gone up. Russell's rushing production has stayed the same and the team rushing production has gone up.
This is a dangerous offense the Hokies are going to face. Wilson has a pair of excellent wide receivers: Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer. Spencer is the home-run threat and Williams (along with TE George Bryan) is Wilson's favorite target, leading the team in TD receptions.
The Pack should be able to exploit the middle of the field if they can get a decent game from running backs Toney Baker and Jamelle Eugene. Baker missed most of the last two seasons due to injury but has averaged nearly five yards per carry this season.
The Pack have actually averaged more yards per carry in ACC games than OOC games, so their stats aren't that augmented by bad competition.
The Pack slightly favor the run on first down, so the Hokies can't just load the box and hope to force long yardage situation that allow the defensive ends to pin their ears back.
I think the Hokies will have success if they are more aggressive against Wilson like they were against Jacory Harris. The Pack will get theirs against an aggressive D, but the Hokies will have an equal number of positives.

Outcome

Should be higher scoring than the VT-UNCG hoops game the other day.

Watch the Box Score For:

Turnovers
Virginia Tech Sacks
NC State 3rd Down Pct
Virginia Tech YPC

Virginia Tech Players to Watch:

19 - Danny Coale, So., WR
34 - Ryan Williams, Fr., RB
6 - Jason Worilds, Jr., DE
26 - Cody Grimm, Sr., LB

NC State Players to Watch:

16 - Russell Wilson, So., QB
13 - Owen Spencer, Jr., WR
49 - Alan-Michael Cash, Sr., DT
97 - Willie Young, Sr., DE

Final Score

Virginia Tech 42, NC State 21

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Florida State Seminoles Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:28 -0000

More photos » by Ethan Hyman - AP

Russell Wilson should have a field day against Florida State's defense. Can FSU outscore the 'Pack? (AP Photo/The News Observer, Ethan Hyman)

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Time: Noon Eastern
TV: Raycom or Espn360.com
Weather
Line: FSU -10/ (Over/Under 64)

Last year, Florida State pulled the game out 26-17 on a Thursday night in Raleigh. The Pack's offense tore up FSU's defense for the better part of the 1st half. Then FSU's offense took over and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, taking the pack off their game. FSU stopped only 4 of State's 12 1st down rushes for 1 or fewer yards. The pack had 3 runs over 15 yards and a bunch of runs over 10 yards. Russel Wilson had a QB rating of 139. He completed 5 passes of 15+ yards. FSu had only 1 sack on 26 Pack passing plays. FSu's offense struggled early, being called for 5 holding penalties in the first half, and allowed sacks on 8% of passing plays. Eventually, FSU managed to get the run game going and pulled it out.

Inside, you'll find find the most comprehensive preview on the net.

NC State's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

NC State has roughly the 25th best offense in the country. Here's what they've done so far against 1a teams.

NC State Offensive Performance
Opponent	South Carolina	Pittsburgh	Wake Forest	Duke	Boston College
Opponent Defensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	17th	59th	46th	79th	3rd
Plays	56	80	69	53	82
Yards Per Play	2.4	6.6	5.5	6.4	4.8
Rushes	25	45	25	19	25
Yards/ Rush	3.7	4.9	4.4	8.6	3.8
Passing Plays	31	36	44	34	57
Yards/ Pass Play	1.3	8.9	6.1	5.1	5.2
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	22-5 (23%)-11	34-14 (41%)-5		26-12 (46%)-10	33-12 (36%)-14
Standard 2nd Downs	4-9 (44%)	7-13 (54%)		2-5 (40%)	11-12 (92%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-10 (20%)	7-17 (41%)		5-11 (45%)	4-17 (24%)
Standard 3rd Downs	5-5 (100%)	3-4 (75%)		4-6 (67%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 3rd Downs	0-10 (10%)	4-9 (44%)		0-5 (0%)	2-12 (17%)
Note	State lost their starting left tackle and never really recovered. Untimely penalties also killed them.	Had a 21 yard bad snap, so #'s are much better. Plays of 25, 30, 16, 17, 13, 19, 17, 29, 17, 11, 19, 16, 23, 33, 24, 26, 38, 21, 22, 21	No down-by-down pre-sorted data available.	Pr	j

Guys, this is scary. The worst defense State has played was rated 79th. FSU's is 104th. There are only 120 teams in division 1. I personally believe FSU's defense should be around #110 or 112, because 2 of their opponents ran a prevent offense while the game was still in doubt, which made their performance look better. Let's show this to you in graph form. Here are the defenses NC State has faced to date:

Of course, the lower the number, the better. NC State should have their best offensive day of the year.

But what about the offenses the putrid FSU defense has faced?

NC State is clearly a step above BC, UNC, and USF in terms of offense.

And here's what FSU did against those offenses

Opponent	Miami	@ BYU	USF	at BC	GTech	@ UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22nd	6th	94th	61st	2nd	91st
Plays	74	53	60	57	63	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5	4.9
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4	6.7
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8	30
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4	2.7

So NC State is decidedly the 4th best offense FSU will have faced. Against similar or better offenses, FSU has been absolutely torched.

So back to NCST. They haven't run but you know they will. Their run game appears to be pretty good but for whatever reason, they've abandoned the run game. No idea why they've been abandoning the run. Against Florida State, I'd say they should not abandon the run.

Their primary run game is the zone read.

NCST runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense. it is what multiple offenses do to FSU.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Unfortunately, defending this requires discipline. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and okay in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against State's 3 or 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

It really sucks to pin your defensive hopes on the chance that the opposing offense will play stupidly or get impatient and abandon the run.

I have noticed that NC State hits a lot of big plays. Their drives are often erratic, looking like: incomplete, scramble for 2, throw for 20, run for no gain, run for 40 (TD). FSU gives up a ridiculous amount of big plays due to their coaching (players out of position due to coaching).

FSU must contain Russell Wilson. The teams which have done the best job slowing this Wolfpack attack haven't even really rushed the kid at all. They just play patty-cake with the opposing linemen, bull-rush the middle, and then tackle Willson if he tries to leave the pocket. FSU's defensive coaches are negligent at best and won't have FSU's defense ready to do this. Instead, they will wildly rush Wilson, he will break contain, and then we will throw things at the TV.

NCST likes to throw to their tight end a lot. He's George Bryan. FSU doesn't cover the tight end worht a damn. That's a recipe for disaster, especially when you consider that...

NC State runs a ridiculous amount of trips sets. FSU fans know that the 'Noles absolutely have no clue against a set involving trips.3 Wideouts to 1 side, with a tight end on the other, a good runningback and an exceptionally mobile quarterback. This could be ugly.

NC State's offensive line blocks well. The offensive line boasts four seniors: Julian Williams at guard, Jerraill McCuller at tackle and Ted Larsen at center (Williams and Larsen are actually graduates). Those three players boast 69 starts between them. They have a decent Junior left tackle. These guys give Wilson a ton of time, though in fairness, teams rarely rush him. Their running back is 5'10" 225lb RsSr. Toney Baker. The guy is a load and will be trouble for FSU's tiny defense. Scat-back Jamelle Eugene provides a nice changeup. State has one good wideout, Owen Spencer, who is a burner. The rest of their wideouts aren't special. Wilson is an excellent runner and he also has a good arm. He is erratic at times, particularly when throwing to his left (tendency? ;) ), but his problems do not show up against man coverage like they do against zone coverage.

via media.scout.com

Prediction: I expect NC State to gain 7.7 yards per play, which would be their best effort on the year, by far. Specifically, that'd be about 20% greater than their best performance of the year. How many points will they score? Read on.

North Carolina State's Defense v. Florida State's Offense.

FSU's offense isn't above average. It isn't good. It is elite. And damn that feels good to say!

You know that FSU runs a pro-spread attack, which has been leaning more and more towards the spread due to the injury to excellent blocking tight end Caz Piurowski, the amazing play of QB Christian Ponder, the plethora of talented receivers, and backs who run well without a fullback. FSU's offense is currently the 4th best in the country. Here's their game by game breakdown:

Opponent	Miami	BYU	USF	BC	GT	UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	12	64	40	3	39	20
Plays	71	77	64	71	66	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.7	6.6	4.5	5.8	8.2	6.7
Rushes	28	49	22	28	28	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	4.5	6.4	2.8	2.9	6.9	2.3
Passing Plays	43	28	42	43	38	42
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	6.4	7.1	5.4	7.7	9.1	9.2

That's a very good offense. Every defense they've played has been in the top half (except BYU, which is 4 spots off). 5 are in the top 4, 3 in the top 20, and two in the top 12. Looking at FSU's raw numbers without considering their opponents is insane. Let's take a look at this in chart form:

What sticks out to me is just how good BC and Miami's defense's are. Carolina's is also very good and will look even better considering what they did to VTech last night. It also tells me that USF literally played the game of their life. This indicates that NC State's defense is the 2nd worst FSU will have faced, and I agree with the numbers here.

So let's look at how NC State's defense has performed:

Opponent	USCe	Pitt	Wake	Duke	BC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	58	22	40	26	65
Plays	64	46	77	80	64
Yards Per Play Allowed	4	6.5	5.1	6.4	7.6
Rushes	39	22	26	28	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.2	4.6	2.9	2.6	8.1
Passing Plays	25	24	51	52	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	5.2	8.3	6.8	8.4	6.9

That's not a particularly good defense. Let's take a look at the relative qualities of the offenses they have faced.

Yeah... FSU's offense is significantly better than anything NC State has seen so far. And FSU has already seen 5 defenses better than NC State.

They run a 4-3 most of the time, with a nickel, 3-4, or 3-3-5 on obvious passing downs. They play almost exclusively zone now, because their defense has seen some seriously bad injuries. And it is a soft zone. They do not pattern read. They will try to stay in their base defense against 3 wideouts.

On defense, they have 3 good players. Defensive End Willie Young is a mid-round NFL guy and he played well last year against Datko. I expect Datko to handle him this time. Alan-Michael Cash is a quality defensive tackle. Smallish but a good penetrator, he has a shot at the NFL. DeAndre Morgan is a quality corner. The rest of their defense is average to below average.

Remember our conversation with BackingThePack.com:

NCST has given up a lot of points on defense this year, has there been any talk of personnel or scheme changes for the upcoming game? Where do you think NCST matches up well against FSU's offense, if at all?

I don't expect any significant changes simply because the staff's options on that side of the ball are extremely limited. In the secondary, for example, we've got underclassmen backing up all four positions. There's not much to like about NC state's back seven, but at the same time, I trust that they are playing the best guys available. Which is truly frightening.

With the defense flaming out so spectacularly over the last few weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Archer has earned the attention of the Fire Somebody crowd. Tom O'Brien voiced his support earlier this week both for Archer and for our zone-heavy bend-but-don't-break scheme. If there are some wrinkles in that scheme on Saturday, I would think they'll come in the form of a little more man pressure. But that's just not who these guys are, so I'd expect the conservative approach most of the time. Hope I'm wrong about that. Everybody's killed this poorly-executed zone, and Ponder won't be an exception. Teams are doubling defensive end Willie Young and effectively neutralizing him, and none of the other guys are stepping up to make plays. Take Willie out of the equation, torch the secondary. Rinse, repeat.

So, no, there is nothing I like about how the Wolfpack defense matches up with FSU's offense. Perhaps they'll be able to limit FSU's unimpressive ground game, but I don't figure that to matter.

The Pack is extremely thin on defense. This year's team was hurt by a pair of offseason defections by kids who could have been useful players in the secondary. One of whom may have started at corner. Safety Javon Walker, who was very good two years ago, was lost to a knee injury and never got back on the field. Freshman corner Rashard Smith, one of the few pleasant surprises in the secondary, is done for the year. Linebacker Nate Irving survived a horrific car accident that cost him his season. And Linebacker Ray Michel (who played with me in High School) is also out. Michel was the defensive captain and called the defensive signals. Freshman C.J. Wilson replaces Rashard Smith as the starter at boundary corner. Justin Byers is the backup. Freshman Gary Grant is now the reserve at field corner. In the first seven games of 2009, NC State has used six different starting lineups in the defensive secondary. Injuries, abilities and experience have all been factors in the changes as the coaching staff tries to find the right combination. Cornerbacks DeAndre Morgan and Rashard Smith and safety Clem Johnson have all missed time due to injuries this season. Some players have started at different positions, including Koyal George at field and boundary corner, Johnson at field and boundary safety and Justin Byers at field safety and boundary corner. This week could mark the seventh new lineup in the backfield, as Smith went down with an injury and C.J. Wilson is slated to be back in the starting lineup (he started the season opener). State has no upperclassmen at linebacker.

I expect FSU to come out and run the ball if NC State plays as soft of a zone as I expect they will. Look for FSU to put up 8.3 yards per play, their best performance of the season.

Special Teams

Ah, the forgotten units.

Let's just say that FSU's special teams return and cover units have been great while NC State's have been terrible:

FSU has the 12th best return/ cover teams while State has the 117th best (or 3rd worst nationally). Greg Reid against a depleted cover team? Yes please.

NC State has been unlucky

A large percentage of State's turnovers have been returned for touchdowns or long returns. That is a bit unlucky. Keep that in mind. Their defense is not as bad as the 50 BC put up or the 49 duke put on them. Part of that was ridiculous turnovers.

Bye Week

NCST off of a bye week has been great under O'Brien.

Pace

This is big. Both teams could slow the pace and look to protect their defenses. The Over/Under for this game is the highest in recorded FSU history (64). But this game could be lower scoring than some are predicting if the teams try to hold the ball. That's not to say the offenses won't dominate- they will, but the total number of play could be reduced.

Prediction

lt's go time. I do think that the teams might run the ball a bit more than usual (wise to do). That'll result in a reduced number of plays. How about 65 per side. NC State gains 500 yards. FSU gains 540. A nice return play by Greg Reid will help the 'Noles to pull this one out, 38-34. That might be a shock to some of you, but this team is off a bye, FSU's defense is truly one of the worst in the entire country, and NC State's offense matches up perfectly. In the end, Ponder will abuse State's linebackers with passes over the middle, and pick apart the zone.

Yep, It Still Stings

Akula Wolf — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:57:10 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

With no guardrails to cling to, you fall so very fast. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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In the brief time that Russell Wilson's final throw was in the air, I was already thinking ahead to the next possession, which would be Wake's game-defining attempt to get into field goal range for a crack at the game-winner. I was surprised at how little doubt I had we were going to score there. Wilson was engineering another clutch drive, and it seemed clear enough after his brilliant scramble and shovel to Jamelle Eugene, followed by a huge 15-yard run for a first down, that a score was inevitable.

And if Russell Wilson decides to keep the ball in play, it's because somebody's open and success is a foregone conclusion. There was plenty of time left, thus no need for haste or rash decisions, which meant this was a 29-yard TD pass that would prove a no-doubter in retrospect.

Donald Bowens indeed had a step and was there. But the throw was not. Wilson had faltered. I guess that was the really shocking thing about it, and his first INT as well. I kind of figured that when the INT did eventually happen, it would come as the result of a flukish tip drill or something. Certainly not the result of a lapse in Wilson's judgment. What an absurd and unfair thought. Quite the luxury we've enjoyed over the last year, eh?

I think the game was lost well before that last interception, when State's defense allowed Wake Forest to turn a 3rd-and-forever situation into an improbable touchdown, which stretched the lead back to ten, 27-17. It was an egregious mistake by the Pack in a game that, for the second week in a row, was full of them. Tom O'Brien's post-Pittsburgh comments look prescient now.

The volume of mistakes the Pack made against Pittsburgh meant that Russell Wilson had to play near-perfect football for the team to win. That's a huge burden and an unsustainable route to victory, as Saturday made painfully clear.

There's still plenty of time left in this crazy game of ACC roulette, though.

Previewing South Carolina at N. C. State: Q & A with Backing the 'Pack's akulawolf

Gamecock Man — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:14:28 -0000

I got together with the SB Nation N. C. State blog Backing the 'Pack's akulawolf to talk about tomorrow night's game.Here's what he had to say in response to my questions. My answers to his questions are here.

1. Deservedly, Russell Wilson is getting a lot of positive press coming into the season. However, you lose running back Andre Brown to the NFL and reports out of spring practice were that the running game and offensive line were shaky. How worried are you about these elements of N.C. State's offense? Will Wilson be able to carry the 'Pack is he's not getting any help from the running game and is constantly under pressure?

Four experienced offensive linemen return and this was a unit that, much like the offense as a whole, improved quite a bit down the stretch last season. Over the last seven games of 2008, the Wolfpack averaged about 160 rushing yards per game and more than 4 yards per carry. The offensive line should be competent at least to point where Russell Wilson isn't forced to do it all himself.

Toney Baker and Jamelle Eugene should prove plenty capable of carrying the load at running back. We already know Eugene can be the primary ball carrier, and the fact that Baker has worked his way back to the top of the depth chart despite missing the last two years is encouraging.

2. Even with star linebacker Nate Irving out, State's front seven looks pretty solid. Will your defense be able to win the battle in the trenches against a USC offensive line that struggled last year?

South Carolina had one of its most successful days on the ground last season against NC State, so...maybe? I do like the defensive line quite a bit, but as with the rest of the defense, it's wait-and-see.

3. Name one player that USC fans may not know much about who will have a major impact on this game.

Keep an eye on TJ Graham. His speed makes him a dangerous kick returner and if he's improved his route running, he might be good for a big pass play or two.

4. My impression is that N. C. State comes into Tom O'Brien's third year with discernibly increased expectations. What do you expect out of this team? Do you think O'Brien is on schedule as far as bringing the program up to the kind of level you expected out of him when State hired him?

Seven or eight wins sounds about right to me at this point (3-1 out-of-conference and 4-5 wins in league play). If the offense builds on what it did during the latter half of last season, it's going to be one of the top offenses in the ACC and probably the most dangerous offense we've had since Philip Rivers played here.

If the defense gets its act together--and it could; this is the best defensive line we've had in a while--this team will contend for the division. But that's the best-case scenario. A more likely scenario, I think, is that the defense makes a modest improvement but remains a liability. More worrisome than Nate Irving's absence is a secondary that's neither deep nor experienced. Tom O'Brien has said some good things about the talent we have in the secondary, and those kids have been making plays in the scrimmages. But I'm regarding those guys as a significant weakness until they prove otherwise.

As for the trajectory of the program, if anything, Tom O'Brien is ahead of schedule. There wasn't supposed to be serious talk about winning the division in year three. He's still got a lot of work to do in terms of building depth, especially in the aforementioned secondary and offensive line, but I'm confident that we're on the right track and that we'll eventually be a program that wins 8-9 games on regular basis.

5. What kind of game do you expect and what's your prediction on the outcome?

For some reason I get the feeling that Stephen Garcia is going to play well on Thursday, which would make for a surprisingly high-scoring game. No doubt that will come to the great relief of the rest of the country watching and praying that this one doesn't end up like last year's...uh, whatever that was. Between the '99 hurricane game and last season's unpleasantness, it's as if NC State and South Carolina get together once a decade just to set back whatever progress the sport made in the intervening years (yet still I wish these schools played more often). But no more! I'll say NC State 28, South Carolina 24.

6. Tell those of us that are heading up to the game what to look for and expect. What restaurants do you recommend? What's the tailgating scene like? What part of town should we head to after the game for a drink? Which bar should we hit when we get there?

The tailgating is great--I think it's one of the best places to tailgate that no one talks about. Carter-Finley Stadium is located off-campus on the North Carolina state fairgrounds where there's a lot of open space. No need to worry about having to tailgate in a parking deck because there are none. (There are restrictions, however. The parking lots don't open until five hours prior to kickoff.)

You'll want to head downtown for a post-game drink; there's nothing in the immediate vicinity of the stadium and it's a short trip to the action on Glenwood South and Fayetteville Street. Some of the places at which I spend too much money include the Hibernian, Raleigh Times, Landmark Tavern, and Busy Bee. We've got a Flying Saucer, too. A comprehensive list of downtown drinking options is available here. I recommend heading for Hibernian because it's a good jump off point in the Hot Spot/high-density bar area. There's all sorts of stuff--college bars, fine and casual dining, dance clubs, sports bars--within easy walking distance of that spot.

Many thanks to akulawolf for sharing his thoughts on the game.

Previewing N. C. State: The Wolfpack's Offense

Gamecock Man — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:33:03 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

4 months ago: North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson looks to pass during football practice in Raleigh, N.C., Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2009. Twice before, North Carolina State has played through injuries and a slow start to make a late-season surge under Tom O'Brien. Last year, that run included a bowl game and the emergence of an all-conference quarterback. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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N. C. State runs a pro-style offense with some option elements. State comes into this game having finished 88th in total offense, 87th in passing offense, and 65th in passing offense a year ago. What those numbers don't tell you, though, is that the Wolfpack were lighting it up at the end of the year; in their last three games, they scored 41 against UNC, 38 against Miami, and were on their way to big numbers in their bowl game against Rutgers before they slowed down after losing star quarterback Russell Wilson to injury in the second half. What the numbers do tell you is that the Wolfpack liked to throw the ball, which should be the case again this year.

The idea that State might be able to continue to produce like it did at the end of last year is what has a lot of people touting this team highly coming into this year. The 'Pack return the bulk of their passing attack, including star quarterback Wilson, receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams, and end George Bryan. If the rest of the offense is clicking, these players should be able to gain a lot of yards through the air.

The question marks for State include an offensive line that played well late last year but has gotten mixed reviews during the off-season and a somewhat shaky running game. The line must play two first year starters at the guard spots and lacks depth there. It's better at tackle. At running back, State has given the starting spot to Toney Baker; Jamelle Eugene was expected to start, but Baker has beaten him out. Some of you may have heard about Baker. He was a prize five-star recruit for State a few years back and looked poised for a great career after solid freshman and sophomore campaigns. However, Baker's career took a detour while he battled knee injury over the past two years. He's now back, although it remains to be seen how effective he will be and if he can hold off Eugene for the feature back role.

Continue reading after the jump.

The question now becomes, how can we stop these guys? It won't be easy, as I'm thinking State has one of the best quarterbacks we'll see all year. The key, I think, will be in the trenches. First of all, we have to slow down State's rushing attack, which won't be easy considering that the 'Pack have a passing game that will force us to back off the run. We'll also have to worry about occassional option plays. However, if we can get penetration on a shaky State offensive line, we can hopefully keep the 'Pack from setting up a deadly play-action game that could really burn us if they get it going. In other words, I think the key to stopping their passing game is making sure they never get a running game started.

The other, related key will be our pass rush. State quarterback Wilson will burn us if we give him time, so it's important that we pressure him early and often. We have two of the SEC's best pass rushers in Eric Norwood and Cliff Matthews, so we have the personnel to do it. One thing that will be key is that our guys take Wilson down when they get the chance; Wilson is very mobile and elusive, so it's important that we don't let him take big defensive plays away from us with his feet. It's also important to note that it's easier to start sending the dogs in on blitzes if the other team can't run the ball well, so a good rushing defense will help us out here, too.

So, what else will we have to watch out for against these guys?

Post-Spring Preview: NC State Wolfpack

Gamecock Man — Fri, 22 May 2009 03:51:23 -0000

Carolina once again opens their season against NC State, this time traveling to Raleigh to take on the 'Pack. Last time around, we beat State 34-0. However, the score was deceiving: we only led 3-0 at the half and 13-0 at the beginning of the final quarter, and Chris Smelley came in to relieve the regrettable Tommy Beecher and played a deceptively good quarter in which we scored the final 21 points. As we all know, this game was a harbinger of many things we would experience throughout the season, among them a defense that saved the crazy bad offense, inconsistent QB play, absolutely no running game (don't let all the yards Mike Davis racked up at the end of this game deceive you).

This year, I expect this game to be much different. First of all, State is no longer the team they were at that point. Led by QB Russell Wilson, the "Pack emerged at the end of last season after a horrid start and eventually earned a bowl berth. State will look to continue their solid play this year. South Carolina, on the other hand, still has questions, this time on both sides of the ball. However, a more experienced Stephen Garcia, a new offensive line coach in Eric Wolford, and another stellar recruiting class have us believing we can play better this year.

Let's take a look at how the two teams match up against each other on offense. The defensive and head coaching comparisons are soon to come.

Offense

Quarterback

State comes in with the aforementioned Wilson, who played very well down the stretch last year. Wilson's most impressive stat is his 17-1 TD-INT ratio, a surprising stat considering that his completion percentage was good but not great at 54.5%. Wilson is also an effective scrambler. If Wilson gets hurt or doesn't live up to expectations, former star recruit Mike Glennon is waiting in the wings.

We of course have Stephen Garcia, who looked good in spurts last year but played poorly over the last few games. Garcia probably has more upside than Wilson, but he needs to prove that he can live up to expectations. Hopefully his good spring was an indication that he's on the way there, but he still haven't proven he can play well consistently, which Wilson has done to some degree.

Verdict: Push--Wilson is more proven but Garcia could be much better when all is said and done

Running Back

State loses Andre Brown, who went to the New York Giants in the fourth round. However, they do return Jamelle Eugene, a capable back that has played well in tandem with Brown over the past two years.

South Carolina loses starter Mike Davis, but returns talented back ups in Brian Maddox and Eric Baker and has new comers with star potential in true freshman Jarvis Giles and redshirt freshman Kenny Miles. While none of these players has yet played a major role in the offense, they are all talented and having a number of them gives us a lot of depth. While I hesitate to call anything about our running game superior, I think this will be a break out unit in 2009.

Verdict: Slight Advantage South Carolina--State will be productive, but one or more of the SC backs will emerge for a breakout 2009

Wide Receiver

With Jarvis Williams and Owen Spencer returning, State has a solid receiving core coming back. These two players were Wilson's main targets last year.

South Carolina lost one of its best players in recent history when Kenny McKinley graduated. Losing McKinley will hurt us, but hopefully Jason Barnes, Moe Brown, and Dion LeCorn will be able to step in and fill his shoes. Each, however, has failed to consistently perform well over the past couple of years. I think it's key that one of these guys emerges as the go-to guy. He doesn't have to be McKinley or Sidney Rice, but he does need to provide us with a viable target.

Verdict: Slight Advantage NC State--the fact that State has proven targets and that I think we have a group of players with a lot to prove gives State the slight advantage

Offensive Line

South Carolina loses Jamon Meredith but retains depth otherwise. This line has performed poorly over the past few years, but new coach Eric Wolford had them performing well in spring practice. I expect significant improvement here in 2009.

State loses two important linemen in John Bedics and Meares Green. Losing these two could be hell for a unit that will have to keep Eric Norwood out of their backfield.

Verdict: Slight Advantage South Carolina--as with the running game, I hesitate to make this call, but I really think we're going to see improvement here