SB Nation - Ray Michel

Maryland-N.C. State Preview: The Basement Bowl

Ben Broman — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:04:09 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

2 months ago: Boston College's Luke Kuechly. lower left, trips North Carolina State quarterback Russell Wilson, right, on a carry as North Carolina's Julian Williams (73) looks on in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Ok, you've heard by now that N.C. State and Maryland are pretty clearly the two worst teams in the ACC. If you haven't heard it, you've figured it out. In fact, the Wolfpack is the only team with a conference record worse than Maryland's. It only stands to reason, then, that this Maryland's best - and perhaps only - legitimate shot at grabbing another ACC win before the end of the year. So, will it happen?

N.C. State's Offense vs. Maryland's Defense: If you read just this section, then no, you'll probably think it won't. The Wuffies have been lighting it up all year; with the exception of the opener against South Carolina, they've yet to have been held under 20 points, and are averaging 37 a game. They're 21st in passing offense, 34rd in total offense, and 20th in scoring offense. Maryland, on the flip side, is 86th in passing defense, 78th in total defense, and a putrid 104th in scoring defense.

That, my friends, is the making of a blowout.

The leader of North Carolina State is a guy named Russell Wilson, who you might've heard of before. Remember, the All-ACC freshman last year, almost never made a mistake, both athletic and accurate? He's back, although less strongly than last year. The 17th most efficient passer in the country can make plays both with his arm and his feet, making an already tough job for Maryland's defense even tougher.

Luckily, they aren't a very strong team on the run outside of Wilson's improvisations, so Maryland might be able to sell out against the pass and force them to run the ball to win. Of course, if it was that easy, some of the earlier teams might've succeeded at it - Wilson can still pick his way through a defense, or simply take off running. If they sell out so much as to make those impossible, then they will hand it off to Toney Baker, and he'll have holes I could run through to get first downs. Also, that's the exact same thing Maryland tried against Wake Forest, and that backfired big time.

Maryland won't be able to stop this offense, especially not with a calm, mild day on the horizon. They'll have to hope to slow them down, instead, and maybe force a few punts and a FG or two.

Maryland's Offense vs. N.C. State's Defense - Ah, the respite. North Carolina State's defense is god-awful - they've allowed 41 points per game the last five contests, which would be good for exactly 118th in the country. It hasn't really mattered how the opposing team attacks them, either - whether its run or pass, they'll give up the yardage and the scores. Consider that this defense is, in the past five weeks, actually worse than Maryland in every major category, and that should give you a good idea of what the Terps are going up against.

Sadly, Maryland's offense is ranked only slightly higher than NC St's defense, so I don't think we can expect an outpouring of points from an offense that only managed 13 against Duke, who hadn't given up less than 20 to a BCS opponent, and 9 against Virginia, who let W&M into the 20s.

I don't think Maryland would change their pass-happy strategy the past few weeks against a defense that gave up nearly 500 yards through the air to Duke. Instead, the coaches should try to involve Torrey Smith even more, because he likely won't have a better chance at racking up yardage than he'll have tomorrow.

Prediction: Good offense vs. bad defense and bad offense vs. bad defense? At least NCSt has a good offense. They get the nod, 45-32.

Players to Watch:

Russell Wilson, QB, NCSt - Ok, so it's a gimme, but Wilson is extremely dangerous and should be able to make a secondary still searching for a #1 corner hurt.
George Bryan, TE, NCSt - Like most good TEs, Bryan is Wilson's favorite target. He's surprisingly effective for a TE, and if he's matched up with Alex Wujciak, it might be rough for Maryland.
Wille Young, DE, NCSt - Young's one of the best DEs in the conference, and I had him on my preseason All-ACC team. He's very athletic, and currently checks in at 17th in the country with 7 sacks. You can expect him to climb the charts after facing this offensive line.
Ray Michel, LB, NCSt - Michel, one of NCSt's defensive leaders and last year's leading tackler, missed last week with an ankle injury, but is questionable against Maryland. If he's out there, I feel much less confident about Maryland's chance at winning.
Caleb Porzel, RB, Maryland - This will be his first game not on a wet field, meaning he'll have a real chance to showcase his quickness and explosiveness. Don't be surprised if he busts one (finally) this week.
Bruce Campbell, LT, Maryland - Watch an offensive lineman? Yep. It'll be up to Campbell to stop Young one-on-one, because the rest of the line needs all the help it can get. This could be Campbell's shot to prove his worth to scouts...and Maryland fans, of course.
Anthony Wiseman, CB, Maryland - He'll be starting again this week, so look forward to his trademark up and down play. He'll have to be at his best to help contain the Pack's passing attack.
Demetrius Hartsfield, LB, Maryland - He should be back on the field this week, and if he is, he'll be instrumental in slowing down Russell Wilson - he's been one of the main tools in containing mobile QBs.

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Florida State Seminoles Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:28 -0000

More photos » by Ethan Hyman - AP

Russell Wilson should have a field day against Florida State's defense. Can FSU outscore the 'Pack? (AP Photo/The News Observer, Ethan Hyman)

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Time: Noon Eastern
TV: Raycom or Espn360.com
Weather
Line: FSU -10/ (Over/Under 64)

Last year, Florida State pulled the game out 26-17 on a Thursday night in Raleigh. The Pack's offense tore up FSU's defense for the better part of the 1st half. Then FSU's offense took over and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, taking the pack off their game. FSU stopped only 4 of State's 12 1st down rushes for 1 or fewer yards. The pack had 3 runs over 15 yards and a bunch of runs over 10 yards. Russel Wilson had a QB rating of 139. He completed 5 passes of 15+ yards. FSu had only 1 sack on 26 Pack passing plays. FSu's offense struggled early, being called for 5 holding penalties in the first half, and allowed sacks on 8% of passing plays. Eventually, FSU managed to get the run game going and pulled it out.

Inside, you'll find find the most comprehensive preview on the net.

NC State's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

NC State has roughly the 25th best offense in the country. Here's what they've done so far against 1a teams.

NC State Offensive Performance
Opponent	South Carolina	Pittsburgh	Wake Forest	Duke	Boston College
Opponent Defensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	17th	59th	46th	79th	3rd
Plays	56	80	69	53	82
Yards Per Play	2.4	6.6	5.5	6.4	4.8
Rushes	25	45	25	19	25
Yards/ Rush	3.7	4.9	4.4	8.6	3.8
Passing Plays	31	36	44	34	57
Yards/ Pass Play	1.3	8.9	6.1	5.1	5.2
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	22-5 (23%)-11	34-14 (41%)-5		26-12 (46%)-10	33-12 (36%)-14
Standard 2nd Downs	4-9 (44%)	7-13 (54%)		2-5 (40%)	11-12 (92%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-10 (20%)	7-17 (41%)		5-11 (45%)	4-17 (24%)
Standard 3rd Downs	5-5 (100%)	3-4 (75%)		4-6 (67%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 3rd Downs	0-10 (10%)	4-9 (44%)		0-5 (0%)	2-12 (17%)
Note	State lost their starting left tackle and never really recovered. Untimely penalties also killed them.	Had a 21 yard bad snap, so #'s are much better. Plays of 25, 30, 16, 17, 13, 19, 17, 29, 17, 11, 19, 16, 23, 33, 24, 26, 38, 21, 22, 21	No down-by-down pre-sorted data available.	Pr	j

Guys, this is scary. The worst defense State has played was rated 79th. FSU's is 104th. There are only 120 teams in division 1. I personally believe FSU's defense should be around #110 or 112, because 2 of their opponents ran a prevent offense while the game was still in doubt, which made their performance look better. Let's show this to you in graph form. Here are the defenses NC State has faced to date:

Of course, the lower the number, the better. NC State should have their best offensive day of the year.

But what about the offenses the putrid FSU defense has faced?

NC State is clearly a step above BC, UNC, and USF in terms of offense.

And here's what FSU did against those offenses

Opponent	Miami	@ BYU	USF	at BC	GTech	@ UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22nd	6th	94th	61st	2nd	91st
Plays	74	53	60	57	63	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5	4.9
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4	6.7
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8	30
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4	2.7

So NC State is decidedly the 4th best offense FSU will have faced. Against similar or better offenses, FSU has been absolutely torched.

So back to NCST. They haven't run but you know they will. Their run game appears to be pretty good but for whatever reason, they've abandoned the run game. No idea why they've been abandoning the run. Against Florida State, I'd say they should not abandon the run.

Their primary run game is the zone read.

NCST runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense. it is what multiple offenses do to FSU.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Unfortunately, defending this requires discipline. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and okay in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against State's 3 or 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

It really sucks to pin your defensive hopes on the chance that the opposing offense will play stupidly or get impatient and abandon the run.

I have noticed that NC State hits a lot of big plays. Their drives are often erratic, looking like: incomplete, scramble for 2, throw for 20, run for no gain, run for 40 (TD). FSU gives up a ridiculous amount of big plays due to their coaching (players out of position due to coaching).

FSU must contain Russell Wilson. The teams which have done the best job slowing this Wolfpack attack haven't even really rushed the kid at all. They just play patty-cake with the opposing linemen, bull-rush the middle, and then tackle Willson if he tries to leave the pocket. FSU's defensive coaches are negligent at best and won't have FSU's defense ready to do this. Instead, they will wildly rush Wilson, he will break contain, and then we will throw things at the TV.

NCST likes to throw to their tight end a lot. He's George Bryan. FSU doesn't cover the tight end worht a damn. That's a recipe for disaster, especially when you consider that...

NC State runs a ridiculous amount of trips sets. FSU fans know that the 'Noles absolutely have no clue against a set involving trips.3 Wideouts to 1 side, with a tight end on the other, a good runningback and an exceptionally mobile quarterback. This could be ugly.

NC State's offensive line blocks well. The offensive line boasts four seniors: Julian Williams at guard, Jerraill McCuller at tackle and Ted Larsen at center (Williams and Larsen are actually graduates). Those three players boast 69 starts between them. They have a decent Junior left tackle. These guys give Wilson a ton of time, though in fairness, teams rarely rush him. Their running back is 5'10" 225lb RsSr. Toney Baker. The guy is a load and will be trouble for FSU's tiny defense. Scat-back Jamelle Eugene provides a nice changeup. State has one good wideout, Owen Spencer, who is a burner. The rest of their wideouts aren't special. Wilson is an excellent runner and he also has a good arm. He is erratic at times, particularly when throwing to his left (tendency? ;) ), but his problems do not show up against man coverage like they do against zone coverage.

via media.scout.com

Prediction: I expect NC State to gain 7.7 yards per play, which would be their best effort on the year, by far. Specifically, that'd be about 20% greater than their best performance of the year. How many points will they score? Read on.

North Carolina State's Defense v. Florida State's Offense.

FSU's offense isn't above average. It isn't good. It is elite. And damn that feels good to say!

You know that FSU runs a pro-spread attack, which has been leaning more and more towards the spread due to the injury to excellent blocking tight end Caz Piurowski, the amazing play of QB Christian Ponder, the plethora of talented receivers, and backs who run well without a fullback. FSU's offense is currently the 4th best in the country. Here's their game by game breakdown:

Opponent	Miami	BYU	USF	BC	GT	UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	12	64	40	3	39	20
Plays	71	77	64	71	66	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.7	6.6	4.5	5.8	8.2	6.7
Rushes	28	49	22	28	28	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	4.5	6.4	2.8	2.9	6.9	2.3
Passing Plays	43	28	42	43	38	42
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	6.4	7.1	5.4	7.7	9.1	9.2

That's a very good offense. Every defense they've played has been in the top half (except BYU, which is 4 spots off). 5 are in the top 4, 3 in the top 20, and two in the top 12. Looking at FSU's raw numbers without considering their opponents is insane. Let's take a look at this in chart form:

What sticks out to me is just how good BC and Miami's defense's are. Carolina's is also very good and will look even better considering what they did to VTech last night. It also tells me that USF literally played the game of their life. This indicates that NC State's defense is the 2nd worst FSU will have faced, and I agree with the numbers here.

So let's look at how NC State's defense has performed:

Opponent	USCe	Pitt	Wake	Duke	BC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	58	22	40	26	65
Plays	64	46	77	80	64
Yards Per Play Allowed	4	6.5	5.1	6.4	7.6
Rushes	39	22	26	28	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.2	4.6	2.9	2.6	8.1
Passing Plays	25	24	51	52	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	5.2	8.3	6.8	8.4	6.9

That's not a particularly good defense. Let's take a look at the relative qualities of the offenses they have faced.

Yeah... FSU's offense is significantly better than anything NC State has seen so far. And FSU has already seen 5 defenses better than NC State.

They run a 4-3 most of the time, with a nickel, 3-4, or 3-3-5 on obvious passing downs. They play almost exclusively zone now, because their defense has seen some seriously bad injuries. And it is a soft zone. They do not pattern read. They will try to stay in their base defense against 3 wideouts.

On defense, they have 3 good players. Defensive End Willie Young is a mid-round NFL guy and he played well last year against Datko. I expect Datko to handle him this time. Alan-Michael Cash is a quality defensive tackle. Smallish but a good penetrator, he has a shot at the NFL. DeAndre Morgan is a quality corner. The rest of their defense is average to below average.

Remember our conversation with BackingThePack.com:

NCST has given up a lot of points on defense this year, has there been any talk of personnel or scheme changes for the upcoming game? Where do you think NCST matches up well against FSU's offense, if at all?

I don't expect any significant changes simply because the staff's options on that side of the ball are extremely limited. In the secondary, for example, we've got underclassmen backing up all four positions. There's not much to like about NC state's back seven, but at the same time, I trust that they are playing the best guys available. Which is truly frightening.

With the defense flaming out so spectacularly over the last few weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Archer has earned the attention of the Fire Somebody crowd. Tom O'Brien voiced his support earlier this week both for Archer and for our zone-heavy bend-but-don't-break scheme. If there are some wrinkles in that scheme on Saturday, I would think they'll come in the form of a little more man pressure. But that's just not who these guys are, so I'd expect the conservative approach most of the time. Hope I'm wrong about that. Everybody's killed this poorly-executed zone, and Ponder won't be an exception. Teams are doubling defensive end Willie Young and effectively neutralizing him, and none of the other guys are stepping up to make plays. Take Willie out of the equation, torch the secondary. Rinse, repeat.

So, no, there is nothing I like about how the Wolfpack defense matches up with FSU's offense. Perhaps they'll be able to limit FSU's unimpressive ground game, but I don't figure that to matter.

The Pack is extremely thin on defense. This year's team was hurt by a pair of offseason defections by kids who could have been useful players in the secondary. One of whom may have started at corner. Safety Javon Walker, who was very good two years ago, was lost to a knee injury and never got back on the field. Freshman corner Rashard Smith, one of the few pleasant surprises in the secondary, is done for the year. Linebacker Nate Irving survived a horrific car accident that cost him his season. And Linebacker Ray Michel (who played with me in High School) is also out. Michel was the defensive captain and called the defensive signals. Freshman C.J. Wilson replaces Rashard Smith as the starter at boundary corner. Justin Byers is the backup. Freshman Gary Grant is now the reserve at field corner. In the first seven games of 2009, NC State has used six different starting lineups in the defensive secondary. Injuries, abilities and experience have all been factors in the changes as the coaching staff tries to find the right combination. Cornerbacks DeAndre Morgan and Rashard Smith and safety Clem Johnson have all missed time due to injuries this season. Some players have started at different positions, including Koyal George at field and boundary corner, Johnson at field and boundary safety and Justin Byers at field safety and boundary corner. This week could mark the seventh new lineup in the backfield, as Smith went down with an injury and C.J. Wilson is slated to be back in the starting lineup (he started the season opener). State has no upperclassmen at linebacker.

I expect FSU to come out and run the ball if NC State plays as soft of a zone as I expect they will. Look for FSU to put up 8.3 yards per play, their best performance of the season.

Special Teams

Ah, the forgotten units.

Let's just say that FSU's special teams return and cover units have been great while NC State's have been terrible:

FSU has the 12th best return/ cover teams while State has the 117th best (or 3rd worst nationally). Greg Reid against a depleted cover team? Yes please.

NC State has been unlucky

A large percentage of State's turnovers have been returned for touchdowns or long returns. That is a bit unlucky. Keep that in mind. Their defense is not as bad as the 50 BC put up or the 49 duke put on them. Part of that was ridiculous turnovers.

Bye Week

NCST off of a bye week has been great under O'Brien.

Pace

This is big. Both teams could slow the pace and look to protect their defenses. The Over/Under for this game is the highest in recorded FSU history (64). But this game could be lower scoring than some are predicting if the teams try to hold the ball. That's not to say the offenses won't dominate- they will, but the total number of play could be reduced.

Prediction

lt's go time. I do think that the teams might run the ball a bit more than usual (wise to do). That'll result in a reduced number of plays. How about 65 per side. NC State gains 500 yards. FSU gains 540. A nice return play by Greg Reid will help the 'Noles to pull this one out, 38-34. That might be a shock to some of you, but this team is off a bye, FSU's defense is truly one of the worst in the entire country, and NC State's offense matches up perfectly. In the end, Ponder will abuse State's linebackers with passes over the middle, and pick apart the zone.

Post-Spring Preview: NC State, Cont.

Gamecock Man — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:11:42 -0000

This column continues my recent comparison of the two teams' offenses. I would say that our offenses look fairly similar--both have potential but have some questions to answer. On defense, though, I'd say we have a distinct advantage that should play to our favor in the game.

Defensive Line

State's defense was overall pretty regrettable last year, but they were OK against the run (although that's possibly because teams liked to throw against them) and had a solid pass rush. Part of the credit goes to a solid defensive line, most of which they return. The leader is sacks specialist Willie Young.

Carolina loses fifth-year senior and consummate party animal Jordin Lindsey but returns the rest of its line, which includes standouts Ladi Ajiboye, Nate Peppers, and Cliff Matthews. I would expect that Clifton Geathers, who received plenty of PT and made some big plays last year, will replace Lindsey in the starting lineup. It's worth nothing that Ajiboye will be suspended for at least one game due to his academic and legal troubles; whether Spurrier will opt to suspend him for this game or wait until we play a cupcake remains to be seen. All in all, this is a stellar unit in comparison to that of State. While it wasn't our forte last year, the defensive line was serviceable and could be great this year with more experience. Depth will be an issue as always, especialy considering the frequency with which defensive linemen get hurt. However, the same goes for State. Moreover, while our line wasn't our strength last year, it was still one of the better in the SEC, and while State's was their defense's strength, it was still one of the worst in the ACC. I'm going with Carolina on this one, although not by much.

Verdict: Slight Advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

This is where things begin to get a little more uncertain for State. The 'Pack do return a couple of linebackers with significant experience in Nate Irving and Rey Michel, but they often got crossed up and gave up significant yardage through the air, and reports are that that continued during spring practice. This should be a team that we can carve up in the short passing game if we can muster any semblance of an offense.

Carolina, of course, loses a star linebacker in Jasper Brinkley and a solid backup in Marvin Sapp. However, we return one of the nation's best linebackers in Eric Norwood. Flanking Norwood will probably be a rotating duo of Shaq Wilson and Rodney Paulk. Both have some experience in mop-up duty but will have to learn to be more serviceable quickly. If we end up playing more 4-3 fronts than we did last year, which the coachs have hinted is a possibility, you may see Josh Dickerson or Tony Straugher get some playing time as well. While we have some questions in the linebacking corp, the presence of Norwood as a leader and State's relatively mediocre unit give us a decided advantage here.

Verdict: Strong Advantage South Carolina

Secondary

State returns safety Justin Byers and corner back DeAndre Morgan. The secondary was another problem area for State last year, so losing a couple of guys probably won't hurt much. The returners along with the new guys will have to play better in coverage than they did last year for State to avoid giving up a lot of yards through the air.

Carolina also loses some key players in this area, among them Emanuel Cook, Captain Munnerlyn, Carlos Thomas, and Stoney Woodsen. We do return Darian Stewart and Chris Culliver as starting safeties. Although Carolina has some talented players that have shown potential at times, such as Addison Williams and Akeem Auguste, and some talented incoming freshman, particulalry uber-recruit Stephon Gilmore, looking to solidify starting roles this fall, the losses in the secondary make this area, usually one of our strengths, a question mark for the defense. I think we're better than State at this position in terms of sheer talent. However, I do worry that if we suffer any injuries that we're going to be in a tough spot in terms of depth.

Verdict: Slight Advantage South Carolina

Special Teams

State returns their placekicker, which gives them something to say on top of us. Josh Czajkowski was a very solid kicker for State last year, going 16/19. Although most of his kicks were from short range, 16/19 is not shabby. Given that reports out of spring practice are that we will miss Ryan Succop this year, State gets the advantage here.

In the return game, State returns a solid player in T. J. Graham, who was effective handling both punts and kickoffs, including one kickoff taken back for 100 yards. Carolina loses Captain Munnerlyn but brings back solid kickoff return man Chris Culliver, who I'm assuming will take over on punts this year as well. I'd say State has a slight advantage here as well, which overall gives them a fairly sizeable advantage in special teams. It's also worth noting that we lost a very good special teams coach in Ray Rychleski.

Verdict: Strong Advantage NC State

Head Coaches

NC State's Tom O'Brien has gone 11-13 in his two years at State. Before coming to Raleigh, he coached several moderately successful years at Boston College; while O'Brien never won more than nine in Boston, he won less than eight only three times in a decade. State fans hope that O'Brien can bring the consistency he produced at BC to Raleigh. South Carolina's Steve Spurrier is 28-22 after four years at South Carolina after a stint with the Washington Redskins and a long, successful tenure at Florida, his alma mater. Similarly to O'Brien's relationship to NC State, USC fans are still waiting for Spurrier to bring sustained success to Columbia. With their achievements at their current schools roughly equal, a slight advantage here goes to Spurrier due to his past achievements.

Verdict: Slight Advantage South Carolina

Final Verdict

NC State won't be easy this year, especially as we have to play them in Raleigh. However, our defense looks to be significantly better than theirs, so I think that we should be able to win this one unless the offense comes out completely flat and gives up lots of turnovers. I really don't want to think about what happens if we lose this game. The early stretch my be just as difficult as the late-season Orange Crush this year, and if we're going to have any chance at getting to the magical eight-win mark, we need to get out of the first four with at most one loss.

Prediction: Close game most of the way but Carolina pulls away at the ends and wins by 1-2 TDs