SB Nation - Peter Lalich

Beavers / Frogs Talk

AndyPanda — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:15:03 -0000

Rumors and newspaper columns have been flying for a couple of weeks about ESPN's idea to have Oregon St. ditch next season's home opener against Eastern Washington in order to have the Beavers play a Sept. 4 season opener spectacular in Cowboys Stadium, against the TCU Horned Frogs.

Athletic Director Bob DeCarolis on Monday made the idea seem real, saying "We're still negotiating with ESPN, but I would hope in the next two weeks we'll be able to get this thing accomplished. It's looking good, but there are still some things that need to come together."

The thing that needs to come together is mostly finding someone for Eastern Washington to play.

The reasons for the move are simple, dollars and promises.

The payout is projected to be at least $300,000, with the potential to reach nearly $1 million, which just happens to be the amount DeCarolis projects the school's athletic budget to be deficient in the 2009-10 academic year. Of course, the fact that it could cost some $ to get the Eagles to go away, and the loss of a home game will cost the revenue of an crowd of over 40,000, plus the price of a road trip, will have to be subtracted from that payout.

It's also a way for Oregon St. to get the Rodgers brothers James and Jacquizz an opportunity to play a game in their home state. The Rodgers of course come from Houston suburb Richmond, Texas, about a four hour drive from the Dallas area.

Coach Mike Riley has bought off on the move, saying "We've wanted to take the Rodgers brothers back to Texas for a game before James graduates, and this is our last chance to do that. Plus, I've always liked the big games, and it's a lifetime experience to play in that stadium. I said go for it."

The last chance, unless Oregon St. reaches the Alamo Bowl next season.

The downside is probably the end of any hope of a BCS at-large bid before classes ever start, and yet another slow start to a season, record wise, and the chance of diminished selection for television, and reduced or non-existent rankings, during October, until the regularly scheduled Riley late season surge comes about. That reduced television revenue has to be subtracted from the ESPN check as well.

DeCarolis does consider it a gamble, but feels "If you're fortunate enough to pull off a win, you're in the national conversation. It also helps the players focus in getting ready for the season through the summer."

Considering this a gamble is an optimistic view at best, though.

For those questioning the probability of this gloomy scenario, keep in mind it will mean two road games to BCS bowl teams that return almost their entire roster in the first month.

Undefeated and third ranked TCU is on track to return 18 starters, and any notion that playing the Horned Frogs, who are from Ft. Worth, in Arlington, is a neutral site game is foolish. It's the same as playing the Washington Huskies at Quest Stadium and calling that a neutral site.

And at the end of the month, there is the trip to Boise. The sixth ranked and undefeated Broncos also return almost their entire starting lineup as well, and are 75-2 on their blue turf.

Even though the Beavers return 19 starters, that's a start that will mean the toughest schedule in college football, not just next season, but maybe for several years, as all the national/rational powers try to limit their non-conference schedule to just one game they have a good chance of losing.

The prospect of that start has to make projected new starting quarterback Ryan Katz more than a little nervous.

And while a 1-2 start would limit the BCS options to winning the Pac-10 in order to go to the Rose Bowl, that will be an accomplishment too. With the return of Jake Locker to Washington, it means all nine of the other Pac-10 teams are likely to have a returning quarterback with Pac-10 starting experience.

Makes one wonder how much DeCarolis knows that he isn't saying.

We do know De Carolis, who has repeatedly been identified as a prime candidate for the vacant Michigan athletic director position, knows more about that situation than we do. De Carolis, whose contract at Oregon St. runs through 2011, previously spent 19 years in the Wolverines' athletic department before coming west to OSU in 1998. And his oldest daughter is a junior at Michigan.

But when asked if he had even been contacted by Michigan officials, De Carolis said, "I'm not in a position to talk about that. Let them go through the process, and we'll see what happens."

What we don't know is whether this development is a tip that there is more than yet meets the eye regarding the future status of quarterback Lyle Moevao, who missed all but one play this season, due first to slow recovery from shoulder surgery, and then an ankle injury in practice.

We do know that OSU officials haven't yet filed the formal application to the NCAA Student-Athlete Reinstatement Committee for a sixth season of eligibility for Moevao, who has an 11-4 record as a starter.

The process includes submitting both a letter from the student athlete, and one from the school on his behalf, as well as copies of his transcripts and academic standings to the NCAA. Alex Parker, OSU's associate athletic director for compliance, says the school is waiting for Moevao to complete some paperwork if he decides to go through with the appeal.

Parker said "A decision from the NCAA is usually reached three to four weeks after submission. Most extra years are granted when two different injuries are suffered to cause two seasons lost beyond the control of the student-athlete."

But in Moevao's case, he redshirted his first year at Oregon St. after a season at El Camino Junior College in Torrance, Calif., but has only lost one season due to injury.

With the experienced Moevao behind center, the bold scheduling move, as well as the Beavers' Pac-10 prospects in a year where the conference of quarterbacks will again be loaded with bona fide gunslingers, will look much different.

The prospect of next season's possible schedule with a quarterback, Katz, who hasn't started a game by then in nearly three years, and that a high school game, or perhaps Peter Lalich, who at least has DI starting experience for Virginia, but no game action in nearly two years, harkens back to the dark days.

Not just the more recent days when Oregon St. took on games that produced numerous early season nonconference losses, many of them by lopsided scores, in recent seasons, but also way back in history.

The dark ages known as the nearly thirty years between the original giant killers and the coming of the "Age of Riley" were a direct product of this type of scheduling. Oregon State once would only play only three home games, and one in Portland, loading up with high profile road games. Pull off the upsets, and you are the giant killers.

However, reality was a lot of beat downs, resulting in depressed home attendance (Who are these guys anyway, we haven't seen them around in a month?), and collapsed recruiting (Would a good recruit prefer to win, or get beat in front of a hostile crowd?). And a downward spiral that led to very real talk of dropping down to the Big Sky conference. Where there would be annual opportunities to play Eastern Washington.

When suicide scheduling is something others come to you to do, instead of you being willing to do it, is when your program has truly arrived. Seven home games should be the goal, not a schedule that makes exceeding seven wins a major achievement.

Unless Riley and DeCarolis know something the rest of us don't, it looks like a step back in time, more than a step up in national prominence.

Getting to know the Oregon State Beavers: Q&A with Building The Dam

jtlight — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:30:16 -0000

More photos » by Don Ryan - AP

Insert your own lame innuendo involving this guy's name.

Browse more photos »

We have a Civil War for the ages coming up tomorrow night, so we decided to see how Beaver fans were feeling about the game. AndyPanda of Building The Dam was kind enough to answer our questions. Jake and Andy had some questions for us as well, and the first part of our answers are posted at BtD.

1. Oregon State is at it again. After early season struggles, they've seemed to round into shape at the end of the season. Is this the case this year, or is it simply a case of scheduling?

Some of both. Cincinnati was as good or better than advertised, and Arizona has proven to be better than expected. At the same time, Oregon St. has progressed significantly since those loses, on both sides of the ball. That's as should be expected, given the loss of experience from last year's team.

2. 2008 Civil War score aside, which team is better? The 2008 Beavers or the 2009 Beavers?

The 2009 Beavers are notably better at this point, due to being nearly 100% healthy. Before the key injuries that juggled the QB lineup, and then the loss in consecutive games of the Rodgers brothers, the 2008 team was the better group. The number of departed players that went on to the next level, 7 to the NFL, plus a couple of others, are proof of the quality lost, and their replacements are not three and four year starters yet, so still lack experience, relatively speaking.

3. Sean Canfield has been great this season, and as a Duck fan, I'm much more worried about him than I was with Lyle Moevao. What is the best way to beat Sean Canfield?

Quality coverage in the secondary, forcing Sean to look a long time to find a target. Historically, his weakness has been to stand in too long, taking late sacks when he should have run or made a decision to throw, even if it is to throw the ball away.

4. Who is the second most important offensive player for the Beavers?

Sean Canfield or James Rodgers are the obvious choices, but I'm going to suggest Damola Adeniji, if not second, should be considered. His improved ability as a receiver has been instrumental in Canfield's improvement, by providing the big receiving target Sean needs, and has prevented opponents from being able to almost disregard other receivers in order to overload against both the Rodgers' brothers. Downfield blocking by receivers is critical to the success of the Beavers' offense as well, and Adeniji has worked hard at doing the things that make the overall offense work.

5. Oregon thrives offensively on offensive matchups and creating mismatches for opposing defenses. Will the OSU defenders be able to make tackles in space, especially against Oregon's speedy WR corp.

The OSU secondary is quite capable of tacking in space, but one of the keys to the game will be how well they do at being anywhere near where they need to be. Spacing to minimize the size of the openings the Duck receivers are sprinting into may well decide the game.

6. On the flip side, what matchups will OSU try to exploit when they have the ball. What matchups make Beaver fans excited?

The Beavers will doubtless try to use special teams to tip the field, so to speak. One of the best ways to get James Rodgers in the open is on kick returns. Also, the Oregon St. kick coverage has been outstanding at giving opponents long fields to drive on.

On offense, its about getting cutback lanes for Jacquizz Rodgers. If Quizz can get to the second level with any regularity, the game changes drastically. That said, Canfield's accuracy, completing over 70% of his passes, should seriously stretch the Duck secondary.

7. What are your expectations on the OSU defense for Thursday night?

They can't shut down the Oregon offense. With Jeremiah Masoli healthy, no one can. But they are very good against the run, and should curb LaMichael James. That puts the burden on Masoli to make consistently good decisions about whether to run or pass. At that point, its about assignment defense, and not overpursuing. And with Masoli, one step can be too far out of position to recover. The game will be decided by how well the Beavers maintain gap and assignment discipline. It won't require shutting down the Ducks with the OSU offense healthy; it may only require 2,3,4 stops.

The Beavers have been dominant in the early portion of games, both their wins and losses. That's critical, because if they can get off to a fast start, then the defense can be put into a position where they only need those few stops later in the game.

8. Most people though that the Beavers and Ducks were 1 year away from making any headway in the Pac-10 this year. What is your feeling on having the Civil War for the Roses, possibly one year early? Regardless of outcome, how confident do you feel going into next year?

Fairly confident, and the only reason for only being "fairly" confident is the question mark at the quarterback position. If Lyle Moevao were to get another year of eligibility, then the Beavers become co-favorites with the Ducks for the title. Otherwise, the first six weeks could be pretty tricky, with either Ryan Katz or Peter Lalich at QB, especially Katz, because of the inexperience factor.

With most of the roster returning, including both the Rodgers brothers, and a favorable schedule, seven home games, including USC, Cal, and Oregon, and nine games in the northwest, the table is mostly set for a serious run. Even the trip to Boise St. is later in September, so there will be time to work out some issues at the quarterback position.

However, that's no reason to not put it all on the line in the Civil War this season. Much of the conference will be improved, and as been shown, the Beavers, or the Ducks, or anyone, can play a lot of very good football for a lot of seasons, and still not get to the Rose Bowl or the BCS. The conference is consistently that tough.

Football News and Notes: Fine Tuning the Roster

Jake Bertalotto — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:00:12 -0000

Sophomore Justin Engstrom will transfer to Portland State this season after two years of service at Oregon State. He found himself as the #2 quarterback on the depth chart at the beginning of last season, but recently fell all the way to #5. (Photo by Ethan Erickson)

View full size photo »

--The OSU Sports Information Department released the new online, interactive media guide yesterday. Soon, I'm guessing, you will be able to find all the media guides for the sports who are in-season at iamorangemags.com. But for now, it's just football. I still like to have the paper version in front of me, but the new online guide provides some cool features like interviews, as well as all the bios and stats you would expect from a media guide. Check it out!

--Cliff Kirkpatrick outlines some roster adjustments in his blog and in his print article in Thursday's Gazette-Times. Nothing shocking, but a few notes of interest:

--defensive tackle Jesse Fifita’s playing career is over due to spinal stenosis

--linebacker recruit Michael Doctor will greyshirt due to academics.

--Possible incoming defensive back Kyrell Hudson has not yet signed a pro baseball contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, and has until Major League Baseball’s signing deadline of Aug. 17. If he doesn’t sign, Hudson will greyshirt so he can get his academics in order.

--Justin Engstrom, who found himself buried at the quarterback position, has transfered to Portland State

The news regarding Fifita must be devastating to a man with so much promise and potential left as a college football player. He was expected to be in the mix on the defensive line as only a redshirt freshman, but the injuries were just too much. Jesse is a guy who only played two games in his senior year of high school due to a season injury. It's sad to see his career come to an end due to yet another injury.

Hopefully Doctor and Hudson can get their acedemics figured out. Both guys, especailly Hudson, could make a big difference moving forward.

Engstrom seemed like a viable backup behind Canfield and Moevao last season, but just became buried this off-season with the addition of Peter Lalich and the continued maturation of Ryan Katz. His chances of receiving a scholarship were becoming bleak, let alone a shot at much playing time.

Check out Cliff's blog for some other minor notes regarding personell.

--John Brewington of the South County Spotlight has a feature on Justin Engstrom, and decision to transfer to Portland State. He won't be on a full-ride scholarship at PSU, but he'll get some money towards his education:

Engstrom will be a sophomore at PSU, and while there are a number of other quarterbacks on the Vikings roster, projected starter Tygue Holland is out with a knee injury.

The newest Viking enrolled at Portland State this week, and was to sign scholarship papers by midweek. "I'll be getting tuition and books, which is the biggest part of it for me," he said.

Engstrom wasn't feeling the love at Oregon State. He was listed as No. 3 on the depth chart last season, but only played in three games. It was just one play in one of those and "clean-up time" in the others.

PSU Head Coach Jerry Glanville said Monday afternoon he couldn't confirm Engstrom was coming to PSU just yet, but said it seemed the direction things were heading. Glanville said he saw a video of Engstrom playing in the OSU spring game.

It's obviosuly good for Justin to get an opportunity to contribute at another school, but it's tough to see a player who has been dedicated to a program as a walk-on leave after getting pushed off the bottom of the depth chart.

--Also from Cliff comes the near-devastating news that offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf had to receive 11 stitches and has two black eyes from a boat-related accident-- A winch slammed into his face. Mike Riley continues to recover from the Achilles injury he suffered jogging.

Riley, on Langsdorf: “I get chills thinking about what might have been there."

Riley, on himself: "That's pretty bad when you get hurt jogging."

--Set those DVR's! Big news on the publicity front as Mike Riley will be making an appearance on Jim Rome is Burning tomorrow from Reser Stadium. He'll be on ESPN around 1:30 p.m. Craig Robinson made an appearance on the show back in early March.

--This isn't really football related, but Jason has some new pictures up over on his blog of the Gill Coliseum paint project. Seems to be coming along nicely.

Only one more weekend to get through before fall camp begins!

--Jake (jake.buildingthedam@gmail.com)

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU