SB Nation - Jameel Sewell

Virginia Tech 42, UVa 13: What They're Saying

furrer4heisman — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:00:20 -0000

by Don Petersen - AP

What the mainstream media and blogosphere is saying after a very satisfying win over our rivals in Charlottesville.

National Media and Bloggers

Virginia Tech controls rivalry (Annette)
"The game went according to script, with Virginia hanging around early on Senior Day in Scott Stadium before the disparity between the two programs showed up in the second half. Virginia's defense couldn't stop Ryan Williams, who has played an outstanding rookie season and scored four rushing touchdowns for the second straight game. He should be a 2010 Heisman contender."

Hokie and Hoo Beat Writers

Tech takes UVa's best shot, then crushes rivals (Aaron McFarling)
"Every year, it seems, Tech-UVa week plays out the same. The days leading up to the game, the Cavaliers dominate the storylines. They're the ones with something to prove. Can they keep it close? Can they put it together for one day? Can they perhaps pull the upset? Then they play the game, and the answers spill forth in capital letters: NO. NO. NO."

Hokies sprint to finish against UVa (Randy King)
"Tech, which knocked itself out of the national picture with back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina in October, finished 4-0 in November with an average scoring differential of 24.25 points per game. Continuing to get better offensively, the Hokies rolled up 482 total yards against a fired-up UVa squad that was hoping to hand Al Groh a victory in what was likely his final game as Cavaliers' coach."

In perhaps Groh's final game, Va. Tech wins (Mark Viera)
"With losses by Clemson and North Carolina on Saturday, Virginia Tech is aligned for a trip to the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta on Dec. 31. An at-large Bowl Championship Series invitation seems unlikely."

U.Va.'s Dowling burned by Taylor-Coale connection (Kyle Tucker)
"But rival Virginia Tech picked on Dowling early and often Saturday. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor's first pass of the game went deep down the right sideline to Danny Coale, who had blown by Dowling. Even when the pass was short, Coale came back to it for a 41-yard, shoe-top catch. Taylor's next pass also went deep to Coale, who out-jumped Dowling for a 36-yard grab to set up the Hokies' first touchdown. By halftime, Dowling had been beaten on four passes that covered 131 yards. That wasn't necessarily an accident on Tech's part."

Six it is: Tech trounces rival Virginia (Gordon Block)
"For the second week in a row, Williams reached the end zone four times and became the second Tech player to score four touchdowns in back-to-back games. Lee Suggs accomplished the same feat by scoring five times against the University of Central Florida and then four times against UVa in 2000."

Ryan Williams...what more can you say? (Norm Wood)
"Though Williams won’t catch former Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson for the Football Bowl Subdivision single-season rushing record by a freshman, there’s a chance Williams could at least finish within shouting distance. Oh, by the way...just noticed this note in U.Va.'s postgame package. His four rushing touchdowns were the most by an opposing player against U.Va. since 1982, when Georgia Tech's Robert Lavette also scored four."

Coverage of Virginia Tech 42, Virginia 13 (Darryl Slater)
"And the Hokies’ defense was stingy again. Tech, which led 14-13 at halftime, held Virginia to 96 yards in the second half. The Hokies did it by shutting down Sewell, who ran 10 times for 99 yards in the first half, including seven for 91 in the first quarter, then seven times for 24 yards in the second half, not counting sacks. Tech allowed two offensive touchdowns in the regular season’s final four games, all wins."

Groh's final words with player comment (Michael Phillips)
"Make what you will of that, but it seems like Al Groh’s final words as U.Va. head coach. The poem refers to you being the only person who can effectively judge yourself at the end of the day, a message Groh sends out, I’m sure, to his many critics. At the end, he listed some of the attributes he wanted to be remembered by."

Cavaliers stung by boyhood UVa fan (Doug Doughy)
"Coale, whose older brother played lacrosse for the Cavaliers, continued to show UVa the error of its ways Saturday in a 42-13 Virginia Tech victory at Scott Stadium. Coale, who had a season-high five receptions in a 2008 meeting with the Cavaliers, finished with six catches for 135 yards Saturday."

There's only one word to describe Williams - great (Bill Roth)
"With no offense to the ageless Tony the Tiger, who’s been pitching the quality of Frosted Flakes for a half century ("They’re Grrrrreat," as you know), true greatness, in reality, should be hard to find. It should be uncommon and rare. So when you read that Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams is having the greatest freshman season in the history of Virginia Tech football and the greatest freshman year in the history of the ACC, understand that in this instance, the word is used in its intended form."

Hokies control second half in pulling away from Virginia (Jimmy Robertson)
"The momentum totally went the Hokies’ way following a UVa turnover. Sewell tried to pitch the ball to tailback Mikell Simpson on the option, but the pitch hit Simpson in the facemask and fell to the ground at the UVa 25, where Tech safety Kam Chancellor picked it up and ran to the UVa 10."

Hokie and Hoo Bloggers

The Guy in the Glass and the Best of #BeatUVa (College Game Balls)
"And now for something more fun, the best of #BeatUVa (in no particular order)."

Hokies Whip UVA, Await Bowl Fate (Tech Sideline)
"Virginia got off to a hot start offensively, running the read option with quarterback Jameel Sewell. Sewell finished with 104 yards and a touchdown on the ground, but Hokie defensive coordinator Bud Foster made adjustments at halftime and the Hokies shutout the Hoos in the second half. UVA finished with 295 yards of total offense."

CHECKMATE (Beer Control Offense)
"Sometimes, you just gotta stick your face in the fan."

I Smell Pretention: Hokies WIN 42-13 (Fight for Old DC)
"As for the game, there's not a ton to say. It was an awesome second half effort by both lines, and you have to give credit to Bryan Stinespring. He called a VERY good game. Tyrod wasn't super accurate, but his receivers came up with some amazing catches and made him look great at points."

Requiem for an era: Let It Go In Peace (From Old Virginia)
"Yes, it's still happening, the criticism and the name-calling and the good-riddance-ing, and yes, it's pissing the rest of us off and that's all it's accomplishing. So help me, if I see another good-riddance style post on any UVA message board the rest of the year, I'm gonna go off on someone. You got what you wanted - Groh is fired. You also got a 3-9 season to go with it, which has been just all sorts of fun, but hey, you got what you wanted."

Virginia Tech 42, UVa 13: Postgame Stream of Consciousness

furrer4heisman — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 00:03:38 -0000

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10 out of 11.

The Hokies have now won six consecutive battles for the Commonwealth Cup.
Offense first.
Tyrod took advantage of man coverage early in the game with long passes to Danny Coale and Dyrell Roberts. Coale was playing in Charlottesville against his childhood team and pwned them.
Tyrod threw a bad pass in the 3rd quarter that was intercepted. Fortunately, the defense came through to make it a moot point.
Ryan Williams had 60 rushing yards in the first half, but Bryan Stinespring went away from him in the third quarter. It seemed like Stiney was saving him to try and wear down the UVa defense in the fourth quarter. That worked out nicely.
I was actually very pleased with how the offense attacked UVa. In the first half, I thought the mix between runs with Williams and passes against man coverage were perfect. In the second half, Stiney got away with going away with RW to save him. The 4th quarter was all VT.
The offensive line was incredible in this game. It gave Tyrod time to pass and opened up huge holes for RW and company.
The defense.
It got owned in the first half by Jameel Sewell but came up with some great answers in the second half.
Bud Foster did a great job of disguising his blitzes and coverages and matching them to the down and distance. Tech blitzed up the middle on short yardage when UVa typically ran with Sewell and stopped him. Then, the coverage/blitzes were perfect on passing downs to minimize Sewell's effectiveness.
It became clear early on that UVa's only chance was to run the ball out of zone-read option and the wildcat. The pass game was clearly not a factor. Tech took advantage of this after halftime.
Great efforts by Cody Grimm, Kam Chancellor, Stephan Virgil, Ryan Williams and Danny Coale. After a tough first half with penalties, the offensive line brought the pain in the second half.
Another huge big time win over the Wahoos to be proud of. Go celebrate, Hokie fans. Don't worry about the bowl. It'll be either the Peach or Gator depending on the ACCCG. Now is the time to be merry.

NCAA10 Sim: Hokies 21, Cavaliers 17

Hokie20 — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:00:15 -0000

Virginia Tech played a conservative offensive game in the second half to avoid an upset from Virginia 21-17 in Charlottesville.

The Hokies' Tyrod Taylor found tight end Greg Boone often in the early quarters to propel Tech to an early 14-0 lead. Taylor continued his hot start with a touchdown strike to Jarrett Boykin with just under two minutes left in the half.

Things were looking good for Tech until Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell started to pick apart the Hokies' secondary in under a minute. In just three plays, Virginia was on the board with a 27 yard touchdown pass to Kris Burd.

Tech turned into a running team in the second half with limited success. Taylor threw one interception early in the third quarter leading to a Mikell Simpson 6 yard touchdown run to cap off a seven play drive to help the Hoos to pull within a touchdown. Tech's defense clamped down only allowing a field goal at the end of the third quarter.

The Hokies ran out the clock in the fourth quarter to squander any form of upset in head coach Al Groh's final game on the Virginia sideline.

VT 14 7 0 0 -21
UVA 0 7 10 0 -17

Scoring Summary
1st Quarter
VT:TD 3:43 R. Williams, 3 Yd run (M. Waldron Kick)
VT:TD 0:30 G. Boone, 31 Yd pass from T. Taylor (M. Waldron Kick)
2nd Quarter
VT:TD 1:53 J. Boykin, 7 Yd pass from T. Taylor (M. Waldron Kick)
UVA:TD 0:52 K. Burd, 27 Yd pass from J. Sewell (R. Randolph Kick)
3rd Quarter
UVA:TD 2:22 M. Simpson, 6 Yd run (R. Randolph Kick)
UVA:FG 0:03 R. Randolph, 20 Yd FG

Significant Stats
First downs VT: 11 UVA: 21
Total Offense VT:293 UVA: 444
Turnovers VT: 1 FUM UVA: 1 INT

Virginia Tech Top Player Stats
Passing: T. Taylor 12-20 for 176 yds, 2 TD
Rushing: R. Williams 22-for-83 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: G. Boone 5-for-115 yds, 1 TD
Defense: B. Rivers 8 TAK, 1 TFL, 1 SAK

Virginia Top Player Stats
Passing: J. Sewell 29-52 for 347 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: M. Simpson 15-for-65 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: J. Brown 7-for-119 yds
Defense: D. Childs 6 TAK, 1 TFL

2009 Virginia Tech Football: What to Watch vs. UVa

furrer4heisman — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 12:00:14 -0000

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The Team

UVa has nothing to lose and it's the last game in Hooville for its seniors and its coach. I expect a motivated Wahoo team playing at its highest level.
If the Hokies can't match that intensity level, it's very possible for them to lose. UVa is better than its record indicates and has a defense that will keep it hanging around. That's a dangerous proposition for the Hokies.

Virginia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense

The Wahoos have a surprisingly good defense this season, especially against the pass.
It will be up to Ryan Williams to lead the charge against UVa in this game. If he goes off, Tech will win easily. If he is stymied by the Wahoo defense, this game will be a dogfight.
The Hokies have had success against teams that run a 3-4 defense (at least ones that aren't Alabama). Last year Tech ran for 216 yards against UVa, including 137 yards from Tyrod Taylor.
Hopefully Taylor can again have success breaking containment and getting yards with his feet against the Hoos. While he didn't run for many yards against UVa the last time the teams met in Charlottesville, he did have two rushing touchdowns.
The Hoos last out-rushed the Hokies in 2004, when Andrew Pearman ran for 147 yards in a 24-10 VT win. If the Hokies can continue their success on the ground against UVa, it should be a sixth consecutive Commonwealth Cup win.
If the Hokies have success through the air, I think it will be on shorter routes to the tight ends or flankers like Danny Coale. Coale grew up a UVa fan and this will be his first chance to play in Charlottes while wearing orange and maroon. I think he'll have a big day getting the ball in the middle of the field.

Virginia Tech Defense vs. Virginia Offense

Last year it seemed like every one in the Commonwealth knew Vic Hall was going start at quarterback for Virginia except the Hokies and their coaching staff. Hall came out and ran the single wing offense to perfection and led the Hoos to a 14-7 halftime lead.
The Hoos introduced another single wing wrinkle last week with running back Mikell Simpson taking direct snaps. However, Simpson's status for Saturday is up in the air. If he plays, I think you'll see him under center at times. Hopefully the coaching staff has been dissecting film to come up with a way to defend what the Hoos have done out of the single wing this year.
Two guys that will have a lot of say in stopping the single wing attack are Barquell Rivers and Kam Chancellor. If those two guys can take care of the inside run game, guys like Cody Grimm and Jason Worilds can focus on stringing plays to the outside where the Hokies' cornerbacks can make tackles.
Tech's cornerbacks have been solid against the run this year and if Tech is going to stop Virginia's single wing plays, they'll need to be on their game.
The Wahoo passing attack has been pretty bad this year, whether it's Jameel Sewell, Marc Verica or whoever at quarterback. If the Hokies are going to give up points to the Wahoos, it's going to be on the ground, just like last year.

Outcome

Someone is going to make a play on defense or special team that completely changes to momentum and possibly outcome of this game. Hopefully it's one of the good guys.

Watch the Box Score for:

Turnovers
Ryan Williams rushing yards
UVa third down conversions
Non-offensive points

Virginia Tech Players to Watch:

34 - Ryan Williams, Fr., RB
19 - Danny Coale, So., WR
52 - Barquell Rivers, So., LB
17 - Kam Chancellor, Sr., FS

Virginia Players to Watch:

4 - Vic Hall, Sr., QB/DB/KR
31 - Rashawn Jackson, Sr., RB
98 - Nate Collins, Sr., DE
19 - Ras-I Dowling, Jr., CB

Final Score

Virginia Tech 24, Virginia 19

2009 Virginia Tech Football: UVa Game Guide

furrer4heisman — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:15:26 -0000

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Virginia Tech Hokies (8-3, 5-2) at Virginia Cavaliers (3-8, 2-5)

Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Date: Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009
Place: Carl Smith Center, Home of David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium (61,500), Charlottesville, Va.
TV: ABC/ESPN Reverse Mirror

Virginia: The Wahoos lost at Clemson last week, 21-34, but showed signs of live in their fifth consecutive loss ... Virginia matched the Tigers in the first half and trailed 24-21 at halftime, however it was shutout in the second half ... the Virginia defense is very good ... it's allowing 5.0 ypp in conference play, 4th in the ACC ... against ACC teams, the Hoos are allowing 3.9 ypc (8th) and 6.5 ypa (3rd) ... on offense, the Wahoos have struggled, averaging 3.7 ypp, last in the ACC ... they're averaging 2.4 ypc (11th) and 5.0 ypa (11th) against ACC teams ... this could be Al Groh's last game as UVa's coach ... Groh owns a 1-7 record against the Hokies and you know his players will want to send him out a winner ... the Wahoos are a dangerous team.

Trends: The Hokies have won three consecutive games ... Virginia Tech is 3-4 on the road in ACC play the last two seasons ... UVa is 3-10 in November the last four seasons ... Virginia Tech is 14-1 in November the last four seasons ... UVa is 23-12 in home ACC games under Groh, but 0-3 at home against ACC teams this season ... the Wahoos have lost five consecutive ACC home games ... the Hokies have won five consecutive games against UVa and nine of the last 10 contests.

History Lesson: The Hokies are 48-37-5 all-time against UVa, 13-9 against the Wahoos under Frank Beamer and 18-17-3 against them in Charlottesville ...

What to Expect:

Expect the entire Virginia playbook. They showed a few new wrinkles last week with RB Mikell Simpson taking snaps out the single wing and leading a touchdown drive. However, Simpson injured his hamstring on the last play of the first half and his status for Saturday is unknown.
Simpson, Jameel Sewell and Vic Hall all took snaps at quarterback against Clemson.
Expect a defensive struggle. The Virginia offense is anemic, but its defense is very underrated. DE Nate Collins is an outstanding player and has 9.5 tackles for loss this year, including five sacks.
Expect the Hokies to need a big game from Ryan Williams. The Wahoos have a good secondary anchored by CB Ras-I Dowling and the passing yards won't come nearly as easy for Tyrod Taylor as they did against Maryland and NC State. The good news is Tech tends to have success against teams that run a 3-4 defense.
Expect a motivated Wahoo team. This is their bowl game and they'll want to get one last win for Groh. And the besweatered one will throw the kitchen sink at the Hokies to try and get that win.

Hokies Win If: They're able to figure out the new wrinkles in the Wahoo offense and a good game from Williams and the other running backs.

Cavaliers Win If: They're able to keep the Hokies defensive line from disrupting their run game and getting pressure on their QBs and force turnovers on defense.

Dot-dot-dots: Virginia Tech WR Danny Coale was a big UVa fan growing up in Lexington, Va. ... Ryan Williams set the VT and ACC freshman rushing record by running for 120 yards against NC State ... Williams had four rushing touchdowns against NC State after scoring three in his previous six games ... after forcing three fumbles against NC State, Cody Grimm now leads the ACC in the category with six ... he is in a three-way tie for the national lead.

Wahoo Links

From Old Virginia

Headlines: Eagles 14, Cavaliers 10

Brian @ BCI — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:43:51 -0000

Brian: I’ve finally had a chance to watch the Virginia game on replay on ESPN 360. I want my 2 hours back. It wasn’t pretty, but at the end of the day it’s a win. In an ugly affair, the Eagles were able to stop Virginia on 4th and 1 just inches short of the first down marker to preserve the win. Let’s start with the "bend but don’t break" approach to the Cavaliers final drive. Now I know that this has been a calling card of the Frank Spaziani/Bill McGovern defensive era, but the Cavalier offense hadn't moved the ball that effectively all season. Man coverage had worked all game and the Virginia offense was only to manage 3 points against the BC defense. The Eagles were obviously able to get the win, but do you like the decision to switch to soft zone coverage late in the fourth quarter? Or was the final drive a little too close to comfort?

Jeff: The final was too close for comfort but for that, I blame the offense, not the defense. What you forget to mention in your quick synopsis of the game, for those who didn't see it, is that if Virginia had converted that 4th down then BC they still would have only had 0:16 left to get in the endzone. I really don't have any problems with the defense that the Eagles played in the end. Ideally, the Eagles would've gotten one more first down on the previous possession to melt the clock away a little more or completely. And to go back further than that, the Eagles should've scored more than 14 points all day. First, Shinskie throws a bad pick in the endzone on the opening possession after BC moved the ball at will down the field. Then, Colin Larmond Jr. had a long touchdown pass placed in his hands that he just dropped. That was easily the worst drop of the season and Boston College should have scored more than 14 points Saturday. They probably should've put up 28 or more. If they had, Virginia had no chance of keeping pace.

Brian: This was a game of inches, writes the Washington Post. Virginia QB Jameel Sewell wasn’t happy with the spot of the Cavaliers final offensive play.

The play that left the Cavaliers irritated was Sewell's run, which came on a fourth and one with 26 seconds remaining at the Boston College 12-yard line. Virginia had already brought the ball 67 yards without a timeout, but it needed just 12 more to win the game and one more to keep the drive alive.

The play was a designed pass, with Sewell in the shotgun. As Sewell dropped back and quickly scanned the field, he spotted an open lane -- not an open receiver. Sewell figured he could pick up the first down and the Cavaliers would have a few shots at the end zone. The plan was stymied by Boston College defensive tackle Kaleb Ramsey near the line of scrimmage. There appeared to be brief confusion about the spot. A measurement was called, and the Cavaliers came a few chain lengths short.

"I thought I had it," Sewell said. "Looks can be deceiving."

In your opinion, did he get the first down?

Jeff: As I was watching I never doubted that the Eagles had stopped him short. I know my eyes are biased but the play was reviewed and stood so I think they got it right.

Brian: On offense, what was up with the playcalling in the third quarter? The Eagles got away from the running game in the third, with Montel Harris only carrying the ball 3 times for 6 yards. In the fourth quarter, the Eagles got back to the running game to wrap up the win. Harris finished with 151 yards on 38 carries. Why get away from the running game in the third quarter when it was so successful the other three quarters?

Jeff: Did you see all the dropped passes leading up to the Shinskie interception? People always talk about how some quarterbacks throw a catchable ball. Supposedly Matt Ryan throws a very catchable ball. I've never been running a route and tried to catch a Matt Ryan pass vs. a Michael Vick pass but to me watching on TV, the Shinskie passes look more like Matt Ryan passes than Michael Vick passes. However, our receivers are just not helping out Shinskie and the team at all. Anyway, the passing game was working on paper. Receivers were open often but they just were not catching the ball or Shinskie wasn't scanning the field quick enough. Surprisingly, I was not too upset with playcalling Saturday, largely just execution.

Brian: You mention Shinskie. Shinskie didn’t have a good game. He didn’t necessarily have a bad game either. His receivers certainly left him out to dry a little bit, including the dropped TD pass to Colin Larmond Jr. you mentioned earlier. Not sure if it’s a lack of chemistry between Shinskie and the receivers, but this receiving corps was touted in the preseason as one of the best in the conference and they are straight up dropping passes they shouldn’t. Next year the Eagles lose three senior receivers to graduation - Rich Gunnell, Justin Jarvis and Clarence Megwa. Looking ahead to next season, are you at all concerned that this trend of dropped passes will continue with the loss of a good number of receivers to graduation?

Jeff: You bring up the chemistry thing and maybe that is a factor. If it is though, that is an area that should improve leaps and bounds after Shinskie goes through spring and summer workouts with the team. Even though Shinskie is a true freshman and other true freshman have started at other colleges before, it is still rare for a guy who was so late in the recruiting process to come on and start. Maybe the chemistry thing is a big issue. Regardless, I am not too worried about next year because the senior receivers have been a little disappointing this year ... Rich Gunnell included.

The UVA Preview of Doom

BirdGT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

by Andrew Shurtleff - AP

I don't like UVA. (AP Photo/Andrew Shurtleff)

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Some people are picking against Tech due to history. A sad history. The history isn't a reflection of program stature. It's a reflection of match ups, coaching preparation, and in-game decision making.

UVA played Georgia Tech teams that were either mismatched or poorly coached. From this perspective, I want to look at our apparent weaknesses and compare them to UVA's ability to exploit them.

Kickoff Coverage Woes
In all of our games, GT is giving up 25.3 yards per return. We're terrible at covering kickoffs. Why? We've allowed 38 returns on 43 kickoffs because we can't kick very far. We've only had one touchback all season and an ACC-leading three kickoffs out of bounds. Our kickoffs are the 6th longest in the ACC, which is good but the problem is that we also allow the opponent to return 95% of those kicks.

So, here's our current situation. We score a lot in the game. We on average give up a lot of big plays in the kicking game. The opponent has less grass to cover. Our defense looks bad when they give up "easy" TD's.

The kickoff team has to get better. Play calling is typically predicated on where your offense is on the field. If the offense starts on their own 40 or the 50 every drive, then they can call whatever they want. If the offense starts on their 20 or 30, then the defensive coordinator can dial up whatever defense he wants and the offense has to play more conservatively.

Luckily, this category is a wash GT fans. UVA has a pretty terrible return unit that only averages around 17 yards per return (last place in the ACC). I just kinda wanted to rant on our terrible kickoff coverage.

Our Run Defense Against the Cavs
2007 - Cedric Peerman, 28 carries for 144 yards
2005 - Wali Lundy/Jason Snelling, 32 carries for 131 yards
2003 - Wali Lundy, 27 carries for 96 yards
2001 - Bryson Spinner/Antoine Womack, 23 carries for 128 yards

All years of UVA wins in which their primary runners tore us up for big yards/carry. When we shut down the UVA running attack ala 2002 and 2006, we won. They only ran for 104 yards total in those two losses.

Under Al Groh, UVA averages a 48.4% 3rd down conversion rate against GT in Charlottesville. Those odd year Al Groh teams only averaged a 40.0% 3rd conversion rate. We never get the AL GROH offense off the field when it matters. Groh uses his big offensive line to push us around. He runs up the gut, to the edge, and all the way to Grandma's house. He's never really had a game breaking running back but he always has HUGE offensive linemen.

This brings us to this year's game. Groh brings in an offensive line that averages 6'6" and 300 pounds on the dot. Match that up with our relatively small defensive tackles and we might have a long day on our hand. Thankfully, the Cavs have a pretty poor running game this season. Even against a terrible Maryland team, the Cavs only managed around 60 yards on the ground.

Secondary is Second Rate
There is nothing more indicative of our road-home, Jekyll-Hyde syndrome than our secondary. Look at these numbers:

But hold on. We shouldn't be talking about this home-away nonsense. If we drafted the the I-A QB's we've faced in a fantasy draft, who would we take first? Let's line 'em up in order of QB efficiency: Tyrod Taylor, Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder, T.J. Yates, Tyson Lee, & Kyle Parker. Are we playing better defense at home or are we just facing better passers/offenses on the road? Probably a mixture of both.

Jameel Sewell would sit right above T.J. Yates in that list so he'd be the "fourth best" passer we've faced thus far. Being the "fourth best" passer we've faced doesn't mean much as Sewell has only thrown 1 TD in the last three games. He's not being asked to make big plays. We gotta force the issue with him. Force him into mistakes. He's a senior quarterback but he's not a good senior quarterback - a Sean Glennon or Chris Turner talent level that will buckle under pressure.

How Does GT Win?
I don't know how we win. I'm worried about how we're going to lose. UVA is inferior to us in every facet of the game. Our weaknesses are glaring but theirs are debilitating. They beat a terrible Indiana team, a terrible Maryland team, and an offensively inept UNC team. They should not be on the same field as us but somehow we'll fumble 8 times. I am not looking forward to UVA.

I feel like the Philadelphia Eagles making the trip to Oakland. There is no good game film on UVA because they've scratched their offense. We've both played UNC but UNC's offense is so bad there was no game. Literally, no game film. Stats don't mean anything. We are playing a UVA team that will be playing backyard football and is currently reinventing their offensive identity. They still have a defense and Charlottesville brings with it a heavy, heavy sports curse.

I am worried.

Predictions.

Bird: We tie the Cavaliers 20-20. I don't think we'll win but I don't think the Cavaliers can beat us.

Dane: God, please don't make me do this. This past week was so much fun. You know what? We should lose this game. It's just what is supposed to happen. If Paul Johnson and his shamanistic voodoo football majick cannot lift this one, then we might as well forfeit all future games played in Charlottesville.

What? What are you looking at? I'm not predicting anything. There is enough bad mojo on this game without me opening my filthy sewer and ruining it for everyone. Take it away, Winfield.

Winfield: All year I have been optimistic about this game and now that it is upon us, I don't know what to think. How can you pick the Jackets when they continue to break your heart in Charlottesville? Ehh screw it. We break the curse! (barely) Georgia Tech 21 Cavs 20

Guest Blogger: Zima, Sportscoat, and Wahoo Edition

Winfield Featherston — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:15:20 -0000

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This week's Guest Blogger is Brendan from the UVA blog "From Old Virginia". Though the Cavaliers are perceived as mediocre, Brendan continues to put up quality work on his blog. He was also one of the first blogs to recognize us when we were still starting out so many months ago. Here are our responses to his questions. And finally, we encourage to you to post your comments and insult the UVA Cavaliers in the comments section below.

1. We haven't won in Charlottesville since 1990. Does this fact come up much within conversation?

Not a lot, actually. There are probably quite a few UVA fans who don't even know such a streak exists with Georgia Tech, and most of those that do would be as sorry to lose as any other game, but wouldn't lament the loss of the streak. The main reason is that we have a better one with North Carolina, who hasn't won in Charlottesville since 1981.

2. Zima isn't produced in the US anymore which is too bad because of how much you guys drink that stuff. What is your poison now?

Zima was our drink in much the same way Yankee Doodle was the song of the patriots in the Revolution: adopted by our rivals to mock us and re-adopted by us because fuck our rivals. In Virginia you can hardly go wrong with bourbon, but myself I've always been more of a rum drinker.

3. Name us a player that we haven't heard of but should be aware of for Saturday?

Safety Rodney McLeod is going to be the guy stopping your running game. The coaches were content to let our excellent cornerbacks single-cover Torrey Smith last week, even in the slop, and it worked out very well. You'll probably see much of the same against Demaryius Thomas, leaving McLeod to step up and rove sideline to sideline in run support. McLeod has a terrific football IQ and will probably be tasked with finding the ball in the triple option and getting to it, quickly.

4. What is the deal with lazer-eyes Thomas Jefferson? Is that still the intro video??? What grass/mushrooms/alcohol was consumed when this idea was thought up?

Thomas Jefferson actually had laser eyes. You think the Declaration of Independence was written in pen? Scorched parchment is much more permanent.

No, the laser-eyed statue isn't really the focus of the intro videos, it's supposed to be Cavman riding down from Monticello saving the day from whatever intruding mascot is rampaging through Charlottesville. It's just, sometimes Cavman gets a little lazy, and if the mascot happens to be near the Jefferson statue, Cavman has TJ do his dirty work. Laser-eyed Jefferson didn't really show up until a couple years into them doing the Cavman videos. Cavman is the star.

5. What is the general mood around Hooville? Is there gonna be a good turnout for the noon kickoff? What if it rains?

If it rains all bets are off. But as far as the turnout, it should be alright. IU was some kind of record low (since the 2000 expansion) at about 45,000, and that actually didn't look too bad and most of the empty seats were in the visitors' sections anyway. Now that we're 3-3 instead of 1-3, I still don't think we'll sell out but I don't expect zombie-town.

There's really only one topic of conversation half the time anymore, and it's Al Groh. After a loss, the Groh-bashers are out in force. After a win, they still sometimes poke their head up but usually get shouted down, because most of us like to enjoy wins and take a break from listening to people rail on the head coach. You'll probably hear a fair amount of Groh-discontent in the stands, though, if things start looking sour.

6. Who will start at QB? Who do you want to start at QB?

The pecking order is 1) Jameel Sewell, 2) Marc Verica, and 3) Vic Hall. And that's just the way I like it. We desperately need Hall at receiver, not quarterback. I think Sewell will be listed as no worse than questionable on the injury report after last week's scare, and I think he'll play.

7. I'm staying in Charlottesville this weekend. Are there any landmarks I need to see? Which restaurants do I need to check out?

UVA is a landmark. Obviously, if you go and don't walk up and down the Lawn at least once, you're doing it wrong, but you shouldn't need me to tell you that. The Downtown Mall is pleasant enough, but maybe a little out of the way depending on your mobility. As far as restaurants, I generally tell people just to mosey up and down the Corner til they see something they like. It's really, really hard to do that and not see something you like. For the "UVA experience" go to the White Spot and get a Gusburger (burger + egg.)

8. Concerning mascots, is your cavalier still riding out after his epic fail the other day? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nN2URhe-A9Q

There's no quit in Cavman, man. You fall off the horse, you get right back on. Besides, the aforementioned hype video in which a yellowjacket will be mercilessly destroyed always ends with Cavman riding through the tunnel, and then the real-life one comes out of the tunnel onto the field, so it's all part of the experience.

9. Who would you root for if UVA were to manage a bowl game against Michigan this season? Secondly, who needs a winning season and/or bowl win more Al Groh or Rich Rod?

My plan, should UVA and Michigan ever again meet on the field, is to root for whichever team needs the win more. I'm not sure this plan would survive first contact with the game, though. I'm the sort of person who goes into a game thinking I don't care who wins and usually ends up pulling for one side or the other by the end. So we'll have to see. I will say this: since it's a bowl game you're talking about, chances are decent I'd be watching with my dad, and he's a Michigan grad so he'd probably be giving me crap about his school beating my school and therefore I'd gravitate instantaneously toward UVA so I can talk back with more authority.

Second question: Al Groh by a million miles. The Michigan fanbase would only start grumbling if Michigan ended the season poorly, which gives UVA fans at least a three-year head start. 8-4 would cause Michigan fans to say "well, that's about what we expected" for Rich Rod's second year of rebuilding; I don't even know if 8-4 would save Groh's job.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

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Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

Maryland-Virginia Report Card and Helmet Stickers

Ben Broman — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:56:51 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

2 months ago: Maryland running back Gary Douglas (20) fumbles the ball against Virginia during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in College Park, Md. Virginia won 20-9. Maryland offensive lineman Paul Pinegar (71) recovered the ball.(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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As Kevin Cowherd said, ugly weather, ugly game, ugly result.

QB: C-

I like Chris Turner a lot, and I can respect what he's done as QB for the better part of three years, but he's been having a rough go of it lately. Yesterday was no exception.

First off, his arm was noodle-y and weak, most evidenced by the Torrey Smith underthrow. Second, he was rarely on target, even with open receivers. And this wasn't just the rain: Jameel Sewell looked better than he did for most of the game. Worst of all, he rarely even looked Torrey Smith's way. Like I said in the recap, Smith was isolated, one on one coverage, with no safety over the top several times, and he was never even glanced at. Turner's gotta get some of that blame.

There were some good things - he did lead some good drives, and looked good running - but they were overshadowed yesterday by the bad. Besides, when you don't put the ball in the end zone, it's tough to give credit for good drives.

RB: C

Strangely, the running game looked really good yesterday. Davin Meggett played well for the first time all year. Gary Douglas looked shifty and displayed some of the natural running back ability that people had been praising him for since spring. Caleb Porzel looked very good in his first real reps, and should be out there a lot more, especially with Douglas' injury. He's got moves, and is quick as hell. Great change-of-pace guy.

So, good performance, right? Oh, forgot about the fumbles. Those three fumbles, one from Meggett and two from Douglas, were absolutely killer and probably were the direct reason for Porzel's increased playing time. Without them, Maryland probably wins. This grade would've been a B+ if not for the fumbles.

WR: C-

Kerry Boykins...sigh. The kid's got talent - no denying that - but I'd be surprised to see him on the field again any time soon. Two huge first down drops and a fumble that resulted in ten lost yards is not a recipe for playing time.

Everyone else was pretty average. Torrey Smith didn't get many looks, so it's tough to judge there. Adrian Cannon and Ronnie Tyler looked like their usual selves: solid but unspectacular. Outside of Boykins, I think the only drop came from Corey Jackson or Tommy Galt, both of whom aren't really renowned for their hands anyway. Average performance with one bad outlier.

OL: C

It's a C kind of day for the offense, I guess. This was actually one of the better days for this offensive line, believe it or not. They held a decent UVA defensive line to just one sack, and Turner wasn't under immense pressure all day. He still got rid of the ball early, but sometimes that looked more like him being jumpy than actually having to get it out fast (I can certainly understand that, but I won't punish the OL for it). This was also the first time the running backs had some real holes to run through. Perhaps best of all, they didn't commit a plethora of false starts and holds, like they usually do. It wasn't a dominating day, but they looked pretty good compared to their usual selves.

DL: C+

This will be the only time all year I say this, so make sure you pay attention: Maryland won the battle in the trenches. This is not a drill.

The line wasn't outstanding, and Rashawn Jackson gutted them a few times, but they actually outplayed the other side. Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell, Isaiah Ross, and Deege Galt all had tackles for loss, and Galt and Harrell added sacks. Rashawn Jackson was able to get about four yards consistently, but there were times he was stuffed in the backfield and the line actually controlled him to an extent. It's a shame they couldn't take advantage in this in form of a win, but at least there's some progress.

LB: A-

Rainy, cold, sloppy...sounds like the perfect conditions for Alex Wujciak. He had fourteen tackles, two for loss, and a sack; definitely one of his best performances this year. Adrian Moten added two sacks of his own and defended his claim to best pass rusher. Demetrius Hartsfield played despite a broken hand and looked surprising good doing it; he wasn't an impact player, but he did get seven tackles and didn't make any bad plays. Ben Pooler is still a work-in-progress, but he had easily the best hit of the night, absolutely destroying Sewell on a blitz

It's no coincidence the LBs had this kind of game after the DL them some protection from blockers getting to the second level.

DB: B+

It's kind of sad that the defense put up such a good performance - I don't care if it was aided by the rain, I'm taking what I can get - and Maryland didn't win, because I don't think they'll be able to do this again all year. The defensive backs, from Cameron Chism to Anthony Wiseman, actually played pretty well. Maryland had five sacks - three of them were coverage sacks. Despite being rainy, I don't remember any CB or S getting beaten badly. Even Wiseman kept on his man consistently.

Also, there's no reason for Richard Taylor to not be the nickel back. He had two great plays in coverage and brings leadership and experience. As for other individuals, Kenny Tate and Antwine Perez still have some kinks to work out, but Jamari McCollough and Terrell Skinner had great games at safety.

Special Teams: C

A below-average performance from a usually very good unit. I'm not going to blame Nick Ferrara for missing those two FGs, but I'm not going to just forget about them, either. Conditions were terrible and the kicks were tough, but if he makes even just one, Maryland maybe wins the game. They also kicked away from Torrey Smith, so the kickoff returns were limited. Even punt returns had minimal impact. Can't really say much good outside of Ferrara's first three FGs.

Coaching: C-

Torrey Smith needs to get the ball more. A lot more. That is all.

Okay, that's not all, but that's the biggest thing. There's also the strange case of the abandonment of the running game midway through the third quarter, when it was working great. On the good side, they did call the Chris Turner draws perfectly.

Helmet Stickers:

Adrian Moten, LB - Wait, isn't an offensive player supposed to go here? Yeah, but the performance was so bad I'm not even going to give anyone on offense a helmet sticker. Here you go, Adrian.
Alex Wujciak, LB - Another double-digit tackle day for Wujciak.
Nick Ferrara, K - Hey, he did make three field goals,
Richard Taylor, CB - More of a feel-good helmet sticker than anything else, Taylor looked solid in his first real playing time in six long years.