SB Nation - Sean Glennon

The UVA Preview of Doom

BirdGT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

by Andrew Shurtleff - AP

I don't like UVA. (AP Photo/Andrew Shurtleff)

Some people are picking against Tech due to history. A sad history. The history isn't a reflection of program stature. It's a reflection of match ups, coaching preparation, and in-game decision making.

UVA played Georgia Tech teams that were either mismatched or poorly coached. From this perspective, I want to look at our apparent weaknesses and compare them to UVA's ability to exploit them.

Kickoff Coverage Woes
In all of our games, GT is giving up 25.3 yards per return. We're terrible at covering kickoffs. Why? We've allowed 38 returns on 43 kickoffs because we can't kick very far. We've only had one touchback all season and an ACC-leading three kickoffs out of bounds. Our kickoffs are the 6th longest in the ACC, which is good but the problem is that we also allow the opponent to return 95% of those kicks.

So, here's our current situation. We score a lot in the game. We on average give up a lot of big plays in the kicking game. The opponent has less grass to cover. Our defense looks bad when they give up "easy" TD's.

The kickoff team has to get better. Play calling is typically predicated on where your offense is on the field. If the offense starts on their own 40 or the 50 every drive, then they can call whatever they want. If the offense starts on their 20 or 30, then the defensive coordinator can dial up whatever defense he wants and the offense has to play more conservatively.

Luckily, this category is a wash GT fans. UVA has a pretty terrible return unit that only averages around 17 yards per return (last place in the ACC). I just kinda wanted to rant on our terrible kickoff coverage.

Our Run Defense Against the Cavs
2007 - Cedric Peerman, 28 carries for 144 yards
2005 - Wali Lundy/Jason Snelling, 32 carries for 131 yards
2003 - Wali Lundy, 27 carries for 96 yards
2001 - Bryson Spinner/Antoine Womack, 23 carries for 128 yards

All years of UVA wins in which their primary runners tore us up for big yards/carry. When we shut down the UVA running attack ala 2002 and 2006, we won. They only ran for 104 yards total in those two losses.

Under Al Groh, UVA averages a 48.4% 3rd down conversion rate against GT in Charlottesville. Those odd year Al Groh teams only averaged a 40.0% 3rd conversion rate. We never get the AL GROH offense off the field when it matters. Groh uses his big offensive line to push us around. He runs up the gut, to the edge, and all the way to Grandma's house. He's never really had a game breaking running back but he always has HUGE offensive linemen.

This brings us to this year's game. Groh brings in an offensive line that averages 6'6" and 300 pounds on the dot. Match that up with our relatively small defensive tackles and we might have a long day on our hand. Thankfully, the Cavs have a pretty poor running game this season. Even against a terrible Maryland team, the Cavs only managed around 60 yards on the ground.

Secondary is Second Rate
There is nothing more indicative of our road-home, Jekyll-Hyde syndrome than our secondary. Look at these numbers:

But hold on. We shouldn't be talking about this home-away nonsense. If we drafted the the I-A QB's we've faced in a fantasy draft, who would we take first? Let's line 'em up in order of QB efficiency: Tyrod Taylor, Jacory Harris, Christian Ponder, T.J. Yates, Tyson Lee, & Kyle Parker. Are we playing better defense at home or are we just facing better passers/offenses on the road? Probably a mixture of both.

Jameel Sewell would sit right above T.J. Yates in that list so he'd be the "fourth best" passer we've faced thus far. Being the "fourth best" passer we've faced doesn't mean much as Sewell has only thrown 1 TD in the last three games. He's not being asked to make big plays. We gotta force the issue with him. Force him into mistakes. He's a senior quarterback but he's not a good senior quarterback - a Sean Glennon or Chris Turner talent level that will buckle under pressure.

How Does GT Win?
I don't know how we win. I'm worried about how we're going to lose. UVA is inferior to us in every facet of the game. Our weaknesses are glaring but theirs are debilitating. They beat a terrible Indiana team, a terrible Maryland team, and an offensively inept UNC team. They should not be on the same field as us but somehow we'll fumble 8 times. I am not looking forward to UVA.

I feel like the Philadelphia Eagles making the trip to Oakland. There is no good game film on UVA because they've scratched their offense. We've both played UNC but UNC's offense is so bad there was no game. Literally, no game film. Stats don't mean anything. We are playing a UVA team that will be playing backyard football and is currently reinventing their offensive identity. They still have a defense and Charlottesville brings with it a heavy, heavy sports curse.

I am worried.

Predictions.

Bird: We tie the Cavaliers 20-20. I don't think we'll win but I don't think the Cavaliers can beat us.

Dane: God, please don't make me do this. This past week was so much fun. You know what? We should lose this game. It's just what is supposed to happen. If Paul Johnson and his shamanistic voodoo football majick cannot lift this one, then we might as well forfeit all future games played in Charlottesville.

What? What are you looking at? I'm not predicting anything. There is enough bad mojo on this game without me opening my filthy sewer and ruining it for everyone. Take it away, Winfield.

Winfield: All year I have been optimistic about this game and now that it is upon us, I don't know what to think. How can you pick the Jackets when they continue to break your heart in Charlottesville? Ehh screw it. We break the curse! (barely) Georgia Tech 21 Cavs 20

Future Foe Scenarios: A Weekly Glance at the Crimson Tide Schedule

Todd — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:00:17 -0000

During the season we're going to start keeping a cursory eye on the entire schedule to help us both better judge our own strength relative to the performances of our past opponents (a la the Clemson win last year looking less and less impressive as the weeks wore on) and how the teams on the rest of the schedule are performing as well. Since no one has played a game yet this week's edition will be a little skimpy, but future editions will have the benefit of game results, emerging playmakers, injury issues, and the like. I will also not be including UT-Chattanooga in this thing for obvious reasons. Without further ado:

***

WEEK ONE

Virginia Tech - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #7 * Coaches - #7 * BlogPoll - #9

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	174.36	35	3
Passing Offense	129.07	111	11
Passing Efficiency	108.12	99	10
Scoring Offense	22.07	90	8
Total Offense	303.43	103	11
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	104.43	14	2
Passing Defense	175.00	16	5
Passing Eff. Defense	112.68	28	5
Sacks	2.50	26 (T)	3
Tackles for Loss	6.43	37	6
Scoring Defense	16.71	9	1
Total Defense	279.43	7	2

Key Players
Offense:

Tyrod Taylor - QB

With the unfortunate loss of Darren Evans to injury during fall camp, the offense is now squarely on the shoulders of junior QB Tyrod Taylor. Though he's an athletic player that can make defenses pay with his feet (7 rushing TDs last year to 2 passing), Taylor has been inconsistent over the past two years due to injury concerns and has rotated in and out with Sean Glennon his whole career. With Glennon having graduated, it's all up to Taylor now. Two factors will make or break his season: 1) Can he stay healthy? and 2) can the skill positions finally give him some help?

WR Jarrett Boykin

Jarrett Boykin - WR

Last year's leading receiver as a freshman, Boykin caught 30 passes for 441 yards and 2 TDs. If he can step up this season and provide more consistency (along with fellow sophomores Danny Coale and Dyrell Roberts) for Taylor then the Hokies might actually add "passing" to their offensive philosophy.

Defense:

Stephan Virgil - CB

With Macho Harris in the NFL, it's up to Virgil to fill his hard hitting shoes. Virgil finsished last season with 6 INTs (tied Harris for the most) and will keep the Hokie pass D as dangerous as ever.

Cody Grimm - LB

3rd on the team in tackles last year and tied for second in sacks, the awesomely named Grimm is the only returning starter at LB for the Hokies.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Alabama (Georgia Dome)
09/12	vs Marshall
09/19	vs Nebraska
09/26	vs Miami (FL)
10/03	at Duke
10/10	vs Boston College
10/17	at Georgia Tech
10/29	vs North Carolina
11/05	at East Carolina
11/14	at Maryland
11/21	vs NC State
11/28	at Virginia

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Starting the season against a quality BCS opponent like Virginia Tech has three built in advantages for the Crimson Tide:

1. It gives the team a real goal to work towards in the offseason

If the repetition and drudgery of fall camp isn't bad enough, imagine doing all that work just to face off against Charleston Southern. With an opponent like Virginia Tech coming right off it gives the team that much more of a sense of urgency in their preparations.

2. National Exposure

This is arguably the biggest game of the first weekend and a win immediately catapults whoever comes out on top into the "dark horse" national title contender conversation. A loss here doesn't necessarily end the Tide's season since a one loss SEC champion has a pretty good shot at making the MNC game anyway, but a win here goes a long way towards answering the more frequent criticisms of the Tide's chances. If we can knock off a quality squad like the Hokies with our rebuilt line and inexperienced QB, imagine what we can do after a few weeks of real live game experience?

3. Quality Game Experience

Saban is very fond of talking about how the only way to really know what sort of team you have is testing them against the best opponents, and facing off against a team that is as hard nosed on defense as Va. Tech is will pay huge dividends as far as gaining game experience goes for our offense, while dealing with a mobile QB that forces you to account for his feet on defense can't hurt a unit that is certainly licking their chops at the prospect of one more shot at Tebow.

***

Florida International - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	98.67	107	8
Passing Offense	218.25	56	5
Passing Efficiency	125.82	58	4
Scoring Offense	24.67	68	5
Total Offense	316.92	96	8
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	156.17	80	4
Passing Defense	212.92	67	4
Passing Eff. Defense	121.34	52	3
Sacks	1.50	89	4
Tackles for Loss	6.75	21 (T)	3
Scoring Defense	28.33	79	4
Total Defense	369.08	71	4

Key Players
Offense:

WR T.Y. Hilton

Paul McCall - QB

McCall led the Golden Panthers to their only win in his lone start in 2007 and guided them to a much improved 5-7 last year finished the season with 2,332 yards and 15 TDs as a full time starter last year without much help from the ground game. All five starters are back on the offensive line and the top five pass catchers from last year are all back.

T.Y. Hilton - WR

As a freshman, Hilton finished the year with 1,013 yards receiving, a team high seven TDs, and was named Sun Belt Freshman of the Year.

Defense:

Anthony Gaitor - CB

An all conference selection last year as a sophomore, Gaitor grabbed 5 INTs and returned two of them for scores.

Scott Bryant - LB

The team's leading tackler last year, Bryant was an honorable mention all conference selection and will help anchor a front seven that is thin on experience, especially on the line.

Schedule:

09/12	at Alabama
09/19	at Rutgers
09/26	vs Toledo
10/03	at Louisiana-Monroe
10/10	at Western Kentucky
10/17	vs Troy
10/24	at Arkansas State
10/31	vs Louisiana-LaFayette
11/07	at Middle Tennessee State
11/14	vs North Texas
11/21	at Florida
12/05	vs Florida Atlantic

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

In games like these, wins don't mean much but losses are unforgivable. The most we can take out of this game really depends on how well we do against Va. Tech. If we beat the Hokies and then limp along half heartedly against FIU, then that says bad things about our team, just like a loss to the Hokies and then a middling performance against FIU would. If we come out and dominate what should be a pretty woefully outmatched Golden Panther team no matter what the outcome of the Va. Tech game, then we know the team has bought in and is giving it all on every down.

***

North Texas - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	127.33	82	6
Passing Offense	235.67	44	4
Passing Efficiency	111.13	94	8
Scoring Offense	20.00	102	8
Total Offense	363.00	57	5
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	207.08	105	6
Passing Defense	275.50	115	8
Passing Eff. Defense	164.87	118	8
Sacks	1.00	112 (T)	7
Tackles for Loss	4.42	111	8
Scoring Defense	47.58	119	8
Total Defense	482.58	119	8

Key Players
Offense:

Cam Montgomery - RB

Running behind an offensive line that returns all five starters, Montgomery, who rushed for 928 yards and 9 TDs last season, is about the only proven commodity for North Texas on offense.

Riley Dodge - QB

A redshirt freshman (and the coach's son), Dodge is a former Longhorns commit that could possibly bring a much needed spark to the Mean Green passing game.

Defense:

Tobe Nwigwe - LB

With a defense that finished at or near dead last in the country in every major category, the Mean Green need someone, anyone, to step up on that side of the ball. SR linebacker Nwigwe led the team last year with 111 tackles and three INTs. He leads a linebacking corps that returns all three starters, but with only one starter back on the line it remains to be seen if they can improve on last year's performance.

Schedule:

09/03	at Ball State
09/12	vs Ohio
09/19	at Alabama
09/26	vs Middle Tennessee State
10/10	at Lousiana-LaFayette
10/17	vs Florida Atlantic
10/24	at Troy
10/31	vs Western Kentucky
11/07	vs Louisiana-Monroe
11/14	at FIU
11/21	vs Army
11/28	at Arkansas State

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Like FIU, the Mean Green aren't much more than an extra home game to keep the revenues up. Also like FIU, we can judge how far the team has come along by their performance here. If we come out and dominate early on and never let up, then you know the team is clicking and on the right page. If we come out flat and scrape by...

***

Arkansas - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	113.50	97	10
Passing Offense	259.58	23	2
Passing Efficiency	122.19	68	5
Scoring Offense	21.92	91	7
Total Offense	373.08	49	4
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	170.75	90	12
Passing Defense	204.42	54	10
Passing Eff. Defense	127.26	62	12
Sacks	2.08	50	7
Tackles for Loss	5.75	58	7
Scoring Defense	31.17	93	12
Total Defense	375.17	72	12

Key Players
Offense:

Michael Smith - RB

Following in the extremely large footsteps of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, Smith made a big splash for the Hogs as a 1,000 yard rusher and the SEC leader in all purpose yardage.

Ryan Mallett - QB

A Michigan transfer, much of the Hogs hopes for the season rest on his shoulders. Though Petrino was able to get more out of Casey and Nathan Dick as QBs than Houston Nutt ever did, they weren't the pocket passer types that typically thrive in his offense. Mallett is, though, and with a redshirt year in the system he should be able to give what was already a pretty solid passing attack an even bigger boost.

Defense:

Malcolm Sheppard - DT

The Hogs were simply awful on defense last season and with injuries mounting over the fall to an alread suspect secondary, its up to the front seven to help keep them in games. Every starter on the line and at LB is back, and Sheppard is arguably the best of the bunch. A 2nd team All-SEC selection, Sheppard will have to help anchor the line if they are going to show any improvement.

Schedule:

09/03	vs Missouri State
09/19	vs Georgia
09/26	at Alabama
10/03	vs Texas A&M (Arlington, TX)
10/10	vs Auburn
10/17	at Florida
10/24	at Ole Miss
10/31	vs Eastern Michigan
11/07	vs South Carolina
11/14	vs Troy
11/21	vs Mississippi State
11/28	at LSU

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

As the first conference game, a win here is an absolute must for the Tide to keep a trip back to Atlanta in the works. Arkansas has been a thorn in our side ever since they joined the conference, though two straight wins have given us a little bit of breathing room as far as keeping a winning record goes. Though last year's match ended up being a total second half rout, the first half was much closer than was comfortable. Their offense moved the ball pretty well on us and it took a goal line stand going into the half to really set the Tide up for the second half beat down. With Ole Miss and LSU still looming in the west, getting by the Hogs with a W puts the Tide at least that much closer than the other two to securing the division.

***

Kentucky - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	127.46	81	8
Passing Offense	171.85	96	8
Passing Efficiency	102.40	105	9
Scoring Offense	22.62	87	6
Total Offense	299.31	106	9
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	139.23	55	9
Passing Defense	193.15	40	9
Passing Eff. Defense	121.01	51	11
Sacks	2.46	30	2
Tackles for Loss	6.62	29	2
Scoring Defense	21.46	35	8
Total Defense	332.38	40	11

CB Trevard Lindley

Key Players
Offense:

Mike Hartline - QB

If Hartline is going to be the Wildcats QB, he better get it done now. Pulled for four games last year in favor of the far more athletic Randall Cobb, Hartline rebounded with a strong showing against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl, going 19 of 31 for 204 yards against a pretty solid Pirate defense. He's supposedly improved a good deal over the spring and fall.

Randall Cobb - WR

Cobb saw most of his work at WR during the spring and fall and has shown he can be an electric playmaker from any position. He'll also probably still see time at QB in their Wildcat package (sucks for UK that they can't come up with something original for that).

Defense:

Trevard Lindley - CB

Probably the only football player in Lexington that is a truly elite talent, Lindley is one of only five returning starters from last year's unit and has his work cut out for him in the secondary.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Miami (OH) (Cincinnati)
09/19	vs Louisville
09/26	vs Florida
10/03	vs Alabama
10/10	at South Carolina
10/17	at Auburn
10/24	vs Louisiana-Monroe
10/31	vs Mississippi State
11/07	vs Eastern Kentucky
11/14	at Vanderbilt
11/21	at Georgia
11/28	vs Tennessee

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Last year's game in Tuscaloosa was a little close for comfort; though the Tide managed to move the ball at will turnovers and missed field goals kept the Wildcats in it until the very end when a busted coverage gave them another spark of hope to pull the upset. Thankfully we recovered the onside kick and put it away, but it just goes to show how there is a thin margin for error in games like these if your players aren't executing like they should and can. As a winnable conference game, this one is just one more step closer to getting to Atlanta.

***

Ole Miss - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #8 * Coaches - #10 * BlogPoll- #11

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	186.46	28	2
Passing Offense	221.15	53	4
Passing Efficiency	144.31	22	3
Scoring Offense	32.08	28	2
Total Offense	407.62	29	3
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	85.54	4	2
Passing Defense	221.69	81	12
Passing Eff. Defense	120.47	49	10
Sacks	3.00	4	1
Tackles for Loss	8.62	1	1
Scoring Defense	19.00	20	5
Total Defense	307.23	19	5

Key Players
Offense:

Jevan Snead - QB

The Texas transfer worked his way into the offense by mid season and generally put on a show during the latter half of the year, throwing for 2,762 yards and 26 TDs to 13 INTs (most of which came during the first half of the year). If he can continue to put up those kind of numbers behind a rebuilt line, the Rebels will have an incredibly potent offense.

Dexter McCluster - WR

The do everything athlete, McCluster will line up at WR, RB, and QB in the "Wild Rebel." At only 5'8", 165lbs, McCluster managed over 1000 all purpose yards last year and seven total TDs. With Mike Wallace gone to the NFL, McCluster and Shay Hodge will be the two go to guys at WR.

Defense:

Greg Hardy - DE

If he's healthy and shows up, Greg Hardy is one of the best rush ends in the country. That's two big question marks, though, so we'll have to see where he's at when Alabama heads to Oxford.

Kendrick Lewis - FS

Last year's Rebel secondary gave up passing yards like nobody's business, finishing dead last in the league. Lewis led the team last season with 85 tackles and had four picks, and if the secondary is going to be better it's likely up to his senior leadership to get it done.

Schedule:

09/06	at Memphis
09/19	vs Southeastern Louisiana
09/24	at South Carolina
10/03	at Vanderbilt
10/10	vs Alabama
10/17	vs UAB
10/24	vs Arkansas
10/31	at Auburn
11/07	vs Northern Arizona
11/14	vs Tennessee
11/21	vs LSU
11/28	at Mississippi State

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

This is going to be one of the games that shapes the SEC West this year and a win over the Rebels would give our hopes for Atlanta a leg up on LSU at this point. Must win.

***

South Carolina - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	94.08	112	12
Passing Offense	222.46	50	3
Passing Efficiency	111.50	93	7
Scoring Offense	20.77	96	8
Total Offense	316.54	97	7
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	132.69	43	7
Passing Defense	159.23	2	1
Passing Eff. Defense	111.13	23	5
Sacks	2.38	35	4
Tackles for Loss	5.46	70	9
Scoring Defense	21.08	31	7
Total Defense	291.92	13	4

Key Players
Offense:

Stephen Garcia - QB

Looking at the projected depth chart, there's just not a lot about the SC offense that makes me think they are going to take a big leap forward this year. They were a horrible rushing team last year, the receiver position is up in the air, and the line gave up 39 sacks last year. The oft troubled Garcia is either going to make or break the 'Cocks this year.

Defense:

Eric Norwood - LB

Norwood will likely rotate back and fourth between LB and DE, where he played his first two years in college, and is back for his senior year after flirting with the NFL draft. His 22 career sacks are just four shy of the school record.

Schedule:

09/03	at NC State
09/12	at Georgia
09/19	vs Florida Atlantic
09/24	vs Ole Miss
10/03	vs South Carolina State
10/10	vs Kentucky
10/17	at Alabama
10/24	vs Vanderbilt
10/31	at Tennessee
11/07	at Arkansas
11/14	vs Florida
11/28	vs Clemson

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Much like Kentucky, this is a winnable conference game and therefor a must win.

***

Tennessee - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	122.92	88	9
Passing Offense	145.83	107	11
Passing Efficiency	99.79	107	11
Scoring Offense	17.33	110 (T)	10
Total Offense	268.75	115	11
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	103.08	12	3
Passing Defense	160.42	4	2
Passing Eff. Defense	102.42	11	2
Sacks	1.92	58	8
Tackles for Loss	6.58	31	3
Scoring Defense	16.75	10	3
Total Defense	263.50	3 (T)	1 (T)

Key Players
Offense:

Jonathan Crompton - QB

Crompton was a highly sought after recruit, yet floundered all season last year, looking like he'd never played QB before in his life. He's been named the starter for UT and has been praised for his efforts in practice, so we'll have to see if Kiffin and his staff are better at developing talent than Fulmer and Co. were.

Bryce Brown - RB

He's eligible, and as a true freshman is already listed as a co-starter with Montario Hardesty. If he lives up to his recruiting hype like Julio Jones did his, then he could be something special.

Defense:

Eric Berry - FS

The SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Berry grabbed 7 INTs last year and likely took a couple of years off of several players lives with his brutal hits.

Rico McCoy - LB

87 tackles and the sexiest name in the SEC. Also the only returning starter at LB.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Western Kentucky
09/12	vs UCLA
09/19	at Florida
09/26	vs Ohio
10/03	vs Auburn
10/10	vs Georgia
10/24	at Alabama
10/31	vs South Carolina
11/07	vs Memphis
11/14	at Ole miss
11/21	vs Vanderbilt
11/28	at Kentucky

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Its the Third Saturday in October, and win here means much more than just another step towards Atlanta. With UT already having faced Florida, UCLA, Auburn and Georgia, we'll have a pretty good picture of just how far along they are with implementing Monte Kiffin's defense and whether or not the Lane Kiffin hire has gone from "risky" to just plain "bad."

***

LSU - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - #11 * Coaches - #9 * BlogPoll - #8

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	166.77	43	4
Passing Offense	201.31	71	6
Passing Efficiency	117.44	80	6
Scoring Offense	30.92	30	4
Total Offense	368.08	55	5
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	110.15	17	5
Passing Defense	215.38	73	11
Passing Eff. Defense	116.62	42	8
Sacks	2.15	46	6
Tackles for Loss	5.77	56	6
Scoring Defense	24.15	56	9
Total Defense	325.54	32	9

Key Players
Offense:

Jordan Jefferson - QB

Jefferson finished last year with a .49 completion percentage, 419 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, but his athletic ability and extra time to learn the playbook make him the best hope for LSU in trying to find some stability under center.

Brandon LaFell - WR

LaFell has been LSU's leading receiver the past two seasons, catching 63 for 929 yards and an SEC best 8 TDs last season. Both he and Terrance Tolliver will give Jefferson playmaker targets to keep the offense humming.

Defense:

Patrick Peterson - CB

Peterson grabbed the starting job for the last four games last year and has yet to look back. With a new DC to help turn all the talent LSU has into a dominant unit, Peterson should be a star.

Charles Alexander - DT

The only returning starter on the d-line (though DE Rahim Alem saw significant playing time), Alexander will have to be the anchor for an unexperienced front four.

Schedule:

09/05	at Washington
09/12	vs Vanderbilt
09/19	vs Louisiana-LaFayette
09/26	at Mississippi State
10/03	at Georgia
10/10	vs Florida
10/24	vs Auburn
10/31	vs Tulane
11/07	at Alabama
11/14	vs Louisiana Tech
11/21	at Ole Miss
11/28	vs Arkansas

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

Depending on how the Ole Miss and Arkansas games go, this is the last hurdle before Atlanta for the Tide. A win here either punches our ticket or spoils theirs.

***

Mississippi State - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	100.58	105	11
Passing Offense	174.33	94	7
Passing Efficiency	102.81	104	8
Scoring Offense	15.25	115	12
Total Offense	274.92	113	10
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	150.92	73	11
Passing Defense	176.58	17	4
Passing Eff. Defense	115.44	36	7
Sacks	1.58	84	12
Tackles for Loss	5.00	90	12
Scoring Defense	24.67	60	11
Total Defense	327.50	35	10

Key Players
Offense:

Anthony Dixon - RB

About the only good thing State did last year on offense was put Dixon on the field. After a 1000 yard year, he'll probably have to shoulder much of the offensive load this year.

Defense:

Jamar Chaney - LB

Chaney was granted a medical redshirt last season after a broken ankle against La. Tech ended his season, and the senior will be the bedrock of the front seven at MLB.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Jackson State
09/12	at Auburn
09/19	at Vanderbilt
09/26	vs LSU
10/03	vs Georgia Tech
10/10	vs Houston
10/17	at Middle Tennessee State
10/24	vs Florida
10/31	at Kentucky
11/14	vs Alabama
11/21	at Arkansas
11/28	vs Ole Miss

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

I think Mullen can probably be moderately successful at State if he can start bringing in some solid recruits, but I'm not expecting much from them in his first year. It will probably a hard fought game for us, but its a winnable contest and one that we'll have to make sure ends up as a W.

***

Auburn - 0-0 (0-0)

Ranking: AP - NR * Coaches - NR* BlogPoll -NR

Offensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Offense	137.50	69	6
Passing Offense	165.42	99	10
Passing Efficiency	102.05	106	10
Scoring Offense	17.33	110 (T)	10
Total Offense	302.92	104	8
Defensive Rankings	Actual	NCAA Rank	Conf. Rank
Rushing Defense	138.92	54	8
Passing Defense	178.83	19	5
Passing Eff. Defense	113.78	30	6
Sacks	1.75	76	11
Tackles for Loss	6.25	43	4
Scoring Defense	18.00	14	4
Total Defense	317.75	29	7

Key Players
Offense:

Chris Todd - QB

Like it or not, Auburn fans, this man is your starter at QB. If his shoulder really is back to normal and the Malzahn offense clicks right away, he should be successful. A dearth of quality skill players is not something that will help, though.

Ben Tate - RB

Malzahn has made it a point to use his version of the spread as a means to run the ball, and Tate is the kind of bruising back that can take advantage of a spread out defense.

Defense:

Josh Bynes - LB

There's not a lot of depth at LB for the Tigers, but the starters are all capable and Bynes will have to be their leader.

Antonio Coleman - DE

A monster pass rusher, Coleman was a Lindy's 2nd Team All-American and will have to help carry the front seven with two new starters on the interior.

Schedule:

09/05	vs Louisiana Tech
09/12	vs Mississippi State
09/19	vs West Virginia
09/26	vs Ball State
10/03	at Tennessee
10/10	at Arkansas
10/17	vs Kentucky
10/24	at LSU
10/31	vs Ole Miss
11/07	vs Furman
11/14	at Georgia
11/27	vs Alabama

Best Win So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

Worst Loss/Performance So Far:

Sadly, not applicable at this point.

What Does a Win Here Mean for Alabama?

That all is just and right with the world.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

Playing the Numbers Game: New Vikings Get Their Numbers

Gonzo — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:44:19 -0000

According to Access Vikings, the newest members of the team have all gotten their new numbers. Here they are. . .at least when I get that Harvin jersey in a few weeks, I'll know what number is on it.

Vikings' Draftees

Percy Harvin (WR, Florida) - #12

Phil Loadholt (OT, Oklahoma) - #71

Asher Allen (CB, Georgia) - #30

Jasper Brinkley (LB, South Carolina) - #54

Jamarca Sanford (S, Mississippi) - #33

Vikings' Undrafted Free Agents

Sean Glennon (QB, Virginia Tech) - #6

Nick Moore (WR, Toledo) - #14

Vinny Perretta (WR, Boise State) - #15

Kahlil Bell (RB, UCLA) - #36

Ian Johnson (RB, Boise State) - #42

Devon Hall (S, Utah State) - #44 (Chuck Foreman's number? Really?)

Robert Francois (LB, Boston College) - #57

Tremaine Johnson (DT, Louisiana State) - #67

Jon Cooper (C, Oklahoma) - #68

Bobby Lepori (OT, Fresno State) - #72

Andy Kemp (G, Wisconsin) - #78

Nick Walker (TE, Alabama) - #89

Antoine Holmes (DT, North Carolina State) - #97

The 2009 Cornhuskers Might Look Like Virginia Tech And Discover That It's Not So Bad After All

Jon Johnston — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

Zac Lee may not be the key to a great Nebraska season. Instead, those hopes may fall on the defense.

Browse more photos »

Zac Lee looks like a de facto starter now that Kody Spano is out with a knee injury. Behind Lee the Huskers are left with true freshman Cody Green and converted linebacker Latravis Washington. While Spano had yet to take a snap, he has been around long enough to learn Shawn Watson’s offense. With Spano out, things look a little scary, as if there’s potential to not have much offense at all.

Virginia Tech was in a similar situation last season. Their 2008 team entered spring having graduated their top four receivers. Their prize running back, Brandon Ore, was dismissed from the team, and then they lost some more running backs to injury during spring practice.

Frank Beamer’s original plan was to start experienced quarterback senior Sean Glennon and redshirt sophomore Tyrod Taylor. Unfortunately, Glennon struggled during the first game of the season and off came Taylor’s redshirt. The two traded time at guiding a conservative attack that eventually finished the season ranked 103rd in total offense.

Despite the offensive problems, the Hokies went on to win five of their last six games, destroying Boston College to win the ACC title and winning the Orange Bowl against Cincinnati. (You might feel an urge to laugh at those wins, but I’d ask you to stifle it because it’s been a while since the Huskers have sniffed a BCS bowl let alone get to one.)

By no means do I mean to imply that Zac Lee is Sean Glennon. No one knows enough about Lee to know how he’s going to perform once the next season begins. Perhaps Lee will perform like Superman (although first-year quarterbacks rarely do) or perhaps he’ll struggle.

Or heaven forbid, he goes down with an injury.

At that point, the green jerseys being worn by the quarterbacks this weekend will take on a whole new metaphor. Green and Washington might be so new to Watson’s offense that he’ll begin to emulate Hokies’ offensive coordinator Brian Stinespring - as conservative as Nebraska’s politics.

Even if that happens, there’s a lot of hope for Husker fans. Nebraska enters 2009 with a defense full of depth and potential. That’s where resembling the Hokies takes on a wonderfully different meaning. You can’t mention Virginia Tech without mentioning Frank Beamer, and you can’t mention Beamer without including the word “ball”, as in “Beamer Ball”.

Beamer Ball doesn’t have an exact definition, but implies winning football games by scoring non-offensive touchdowns. A blocked kick here, an interception return there. Add in a punt or kickoff return and the Hokies are all over you in ways you didn’t see coming.

One additional trait of Beamer Ball - a team that doesn’t stop fighting. In last year’s North Carolina game, the Tar Heels lead 17-3 with 6:44 left in the third quarter. Add in a couple interceptions, a fumble, and a timely personal foul penalty and the Hokies came back to win that one 20-17, after allowing North Carolina only three first downs the rest of the game. I won’t mention what happened last year in Lincoln, because you already know.

If any of this stuff sounds familiar, it’s because a lot of it is the team that deep down you want the Huskers to be, it’s just that the defense has yet to fully materialize. Husker fans saw glimpses of its full form last year as Ndamukong Suh had two interceptions for touchdowns, one in which he ran over Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins on his way to the end zone. (If I live to be 100, I will never tire of saying that.)

Virginia Tech and Nebraska tied in the one category that seems best to define Beamer Ball - blocked kicks and punts. Both finished sixth with five blocks apiece. The Hokies finished 14th in rushing defense compared to the Huskers at 22nd. The resemblance falls off in pass defense, as Nebraska finished 89th to Virginia Tech’s 16th-place ranking, but we should improve this coming season.

There is one more glaring area in which the Huskers must improve if the resemblance proves to be true. Nebraska’s 2008 defense produced only 17 turnovers as the Husker finished 108th in turnover margin while Virginia Tech produced 34 turnovers to finish tenth. That’s not as bad as it sounds. Bo Pelini’s defenses are known for their ball-hawking capabilities, so that turnover margin is bound to improve.

Before you start to worry about what you’re going to see this weekend, think about the possibilities. If Nebraska’s defense can improve this season, we can get away with having a less than stellar offense. Perhaps we’ll start referring to a new way of winning. Just don’t call it “Pelini Ball”.

Holt Starting Thursday?

Dave Tucker — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:41:01 -0000

It seems more and more likely that 3rd string quarterback Cory Holt will be starting for Virginia Tech on Thursday against Maryland.

I think Holt will go, but if he struggles, don't be surprised if Tyrod Taylor and or Sean Glennon make an appearance.

Hopefully the outcome of this game will be slightly better then the last time the Terps played in Blacksburg. (Ugh, I made the trip down from College Park for that game and it was one of the worst experiences ever).

I think the Terps will go down there and take care of business...hopefully they can run the ball and control the time of possession battle. I think it will be a close game and won't be decided until late in the 4th quarter.

Poll

Who will win on Thursday in Blacksburg?

Maryland baby!

23 votes

Sadly, the Terps will have another let down game and Tech will upset

7 votes

Too close to call

4 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Don't Bet On It!: National Games of Interest

T Kyle King — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:45:05 -0000

Aside from the biggies (war, poverty, famine, etc.), there are five things in the world that truly, utterly stink: wet socks, Monday mornings, Atlantic Coast Conference football, my skills as a prognosticator, and the September 6 slate of college gridiron games not involving Southeastern Conference competitors.

The penultimate item on that list deserves inclusion despite the fact that, in last week’s national picks, I posted an 8-0 record that included predictions of East Carolina’s and Utah’s upset victories. Evidence in support of the final contention listed above is offered in the following slate of contests of national (for want of a better word) significance, with respect to which I must caution you that my luck obviously is about to run out after a perfect opening weekend, so, please, whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!:

Brigham Young at Washington: The beleaguered Huskies, formerly the bellwether of the Pac-10 during the height of the Don James era, hit rock bottom last weekend, losing 44-10 at Oregon in a game embattled U.W. coach Tyrone Willingham guaranteed his team would win. The Cougars are expected not only to win the Mountain West but to make a run at a B.C.S. bowl game. You can’t see me right now, but this is what my face looks like when I ain’t buying it. In 2006, Washington hosted W.A.C. giant-killer Fresno State, which was one year removed from nearly upending top-ranked Southern California. The Huskies won. In 2007, Washington hosted Boise State, which was one year removed from its classic Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma and riding a 14-game winning streak. The Huskies won. In 2008, Washington will host B.Y.U., which is one year removed from an 11-2 campaign featuring a second straight Las Vegas Bowl triumph over a Pac-10 opponent. The Huskies will win.

Oregon State at Penn State: Am I the only one who finds it odd that the Beavers are traveling all the way across the continent just so they can play a road game at Beaver Stadium? Who’ll be singing the national anthem, Jerry Mathers? Western swings have not been kind to S.E.C. squads, but we’re not the only ones, as road trips to the eastern half of the country have caused O.S. problems in recent years. The Beavs’ most recent regular-season trips have resulted in an autumn-opening heartbreaker at L.S.U. in 2004, a 63-27 setback at Louisville in 2005, and a 34-3 loss at Cincinnati in 2007. It will be a moral victory for Oregon State if the Beavers just manage to be competitive, but, if I said I thought the team that coughed it up to Stanford was capable of going on the road and beating P.S.U., I’d be Lion.

Admittedly, that was a bad joke, but it wasn’t as bad as Oregon State’s uniforms.

Cincinnati at Oklahoma: Speaking of the Bearcats, I told you already that this will be a good game (and I was right on the first two such forecasts I made, wasn’t I?). Most of the attention focused on the Big East’s current incarnation has been directed elsewhere---at Louisville initially; at Rutgers and South Florida more recently; at West Virginia since 2005---but, in the meantime, Cincy quietly has constructed a respectable program. The ‘Cats will prove they belong, but O.U. will walk away with the win, even if the home team starts to pull away later rather than Sooner. (All right, that’s two in a row; I’ll cut it out now, I promise.)

Houston at Oklahoma State: Quick . . . renewal of a dormant conference rivalry or first meeting between the two teams? Although they missed out on being Southwest Conference competitors---the Cowboys left the league after 1924; the Cougars joined up in 1976---they actually overlapped in the Missouri Valley Conference for half a dozen seasons, from 1951 to 1956. (During that span, Houston took five of six from O.S.U., but no more than eight points separated them in four of those contests. The two teams continued to play annually through 1961, the Cowboys’ second season in the Big Eight.) New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is looking for his first Division I-A victory after a home date with Southern in which the Cougars won the game but lost the halftime show. As much as I’m tempted to take Houston in the upset---the Cougs scared Alabama last year and Miami (Florida) the year before that---I don’t think the Conference USA frontrunner can close the deal against a B.C.S. conference school on the road. The Pokes will rope the Cougars.

(Obligatory Mike Gundy press conference photograph.)

West Virginia at East Carolina: Can the Pirates come down from their program-defining win over Virginia Tech in time to pull off an even bigger upset over the Mountaineers in Greenville? Nope. The depleted Hokies were ripe for being beaten, as V.P.I. fielded a team noticeably light on returning starters in many areas (especially on defense) yet possessing one returning starter too many in Sean Glennon. W.V.U., despite similarly large losses on the defensive side of the ball, brings back Noel Devine and Pat White. The Mountaineers lately have made a habit of beating E.C.U.---twice in the last five years, they have handed the Pirates setbacks by 48-7 final margins---and I believe that is one trend West Virginia will continue this autumn.

Georgia Tech at Boston College: Ah, yes. Two teams that traded down when leaving major conferences, each near the bottom of the sports pecking order in its own hometown and coached until a season or so ago by a sideline stalker with the resting heart rate of an oak tree, both sharing their cities with prestigious private institutions by which they fear they are overshadowed and possessing recent wins over Notre Dame that are more devalued than the dollar. Welcome to the bland dull world that is A.C.C. football! With another in a series of what charitably are described as "down" years evidently in store for the league, this could be a preview of the conference title game, assuming the Eagles and the Yellow Jackets play in different divisions. (I could look that up, but I refuse to do so on general principle.) If only because I will enjoy seeing the Ramblin’ Wreck set up for a subsequent fall, I’m picking Georgia Tech, although I will be rooting for Boston College.

Vive indifference!

Those are the picks for this week, but, as always, my prognosticating ability, which is not impressive even in the S.E.C. arena, is even worse when it comes to other conferences, so proceed with caution and, no matter what, remember: Don’t Bet On It!

(On an almost entirely unrelated note, I hate to say I told you so . . . but I told you so!)

Coming soon: National Game of Disinterest.

Go ‘Dawgs!