SB Nation - Trevor Anderson

Michigan State preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:52:29 -0000

When I saw this game on the schedule I felt it was the biggest toss-up of the year. I expected to be teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility at this point (certainly without wins over Ohio State and Michigan) but I didn't know what to think of the Spartans. Being game 11, it was hard to predict how seasons would turn out on both sides. I felt confidence about beating Indiana, but I have virtually ignored Michigan State for multiple reasons. First, the game felt far off. Second, it later felt like the game would not matter. Now that it is here, I still don't know what to think.

I am really surprised that this is the best offense in the Big Ten. I am more surprised that their defense has been so bad. Like Ben and I discussed in the podcast last night, just about the opposite was expected from the Spartans. The defense has been pretty good at home, but has struggled mightily on the road. As Ben said though, they have faced better offenses (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota) on the road than at home (Western Michigan, Montana State, Michigan).

In short this is a huge game for both teams, though we have less of a margin for error (none) than Michigan State.

2009 Record: 5-5, 3-3 Big Ten

2008 Record: 9-4, 6-2 Big Ten

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Long lost brothers meet again

Michigan State offense:

This is really the best offense statistically in the Big Ten? I guess you're right. Michigan is flaky. Ohio State wins with defense, as does Iowa Most of the time. Minnesota has had one great offensive game against Michigan State. Indiana is surprisingly good. Illinois has only been good for two weeks. Northwestern is opportunistic. Purdue moves the ball, but we give it away almost as much as we score. Penn State can't score against good teams. Wisconsin is afraid to pass. That leaves Michigan State.

The Spartans don't have a dominant running back like Javon Ringer any more, but their running game is surprisingly balanced. No one has run for more than 400 yards, but seven players have at least 100 yards rushing (compared to three such players for us). Leading rusher Larry Coyer (375 yard, 6 TD's) is a question mark after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, but Ashton Leggett (110-4) took over the position with authority last week by running for 110 yards and 4 TD's on 14 carries. He had one carry for 0 yards previously, and that came in the season opener against Montana State. Edwin Baker (242-0) also had his best game of the season last week with 15 carries for 78 yards.

Ashton Leggett had a breakout game against Western Michigan

At quarterback we will see both kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. Thoughts on that issue are best summed up here by the Michigan State faithful. Cousins (158-148, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2,097 yards) has been by far the better quarterback, but Mark Dantonio insists on getting Nichol (45-86, 6 TD, 3 INT, 680 yards) some work in each game. The duo has combined to be the best passing attack in the league, so our secondary will be tested. Expect Cousins to start and Nichol to play.

Nichol and Cousins like to spread the ball around, though there is one top receiver to focus on. Blair White (58-836-7) will remind Purdue fans a lot of Chris Daniels. He is one of the conference's top receivers and will be the number one option on many plays. B.J. Cunningham (41-510-3) is a solid second option as Michigan State will likely look to pass first. Tight end Brian Linthicum (18-259-2) gives each quarterback a reliable safety valve and goal line option. Keshawn Martin (12-251-3) is a speedy deep threat. He has a 91 yard score on his resume this season. Mark Dell (25-392-1) can also be a deep option.

The reason that Michgian State's passing game has been so successful is its offensive line. The Spartans have given up just 12 sacks on the year, but they have yet to see a pass rush as fierce as ours. I fear another Wisconsin game because Michigan State has a big, experienced offensive line. Seniors Brendon Moss, Joel Nitchman, and Rocco Cironi form the core, but juniors Joel Foreman and D.J. Young are hardly stiffs. This is not a tall line, but they are compact and strong. We must respond tot heir physicality better than we did against Wisconsin.

Michigan State defense:

While our defense may struggle to slow down their very good passing game, our own passing game should have plenty of room to move as long as we can avoid turnovers. Michigan State defends the run well, giving up barely more than 100 yards per game. They are giving up over 230 yards per game through the air with a whopping 22 touchdowns. Ball security could be even more of an issue. Michigan State has forced only 11 turnovers this season, so it is critical that we don't help them out with dumb turnovers like we have helped other teams all year long.

The run defense begins with one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the entire country. Greg Jones is a beast of a player in the middle. He already has 117 tackles (11 for loss) 7.5 sacks, and a fumble recovery. He loves to get after the quarterback, and you can bet he will end up wherever the ball is. Fellow linebackers Brandon Denson (54 tackles) and Eric Gordon (70 tackles) help him out. All three are the top tacklers for Michigan State.

Michigan State starts a pair of senior defensive ends in Trevor Anderson (4 sacks) and Colin Neely (2 sacks). Tackles Jerel Worthy and Oren Wilson are stout against the run, while Worthy can get into the backfield with 4.5 sacks. Wilson is a big nose tackle that will be difficult to get around in the middle of the line, but we mostly run outside anyway.

The Spartan secondary can be exploited. Corners Chris Rucker and Jeremy Ware have been disappointing this year. Each has just one interception, but more than 40 tackles. Marcus Hyde and Dan Fortener have played every game at the safety spots, but have only one interception between them. We should have some room to move in the passing game since coverage is not their strong suit.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Aaron Bates is one of the league's better punters at 42 yards per kick. Teams are averaging 8 yards per return against him, but we seem to be employing a strategy of catching the ball then falling down of late, so it doesn't matter. Michigan State is giving up 22 yards per kick return, so ATM might have some room.

Brett Swinson is one of the best kickers in the Big Ten. He has hit on 14 of 16 field goal with a long of 45. he did miss his only attempt last week from 37, so he isn't automatic. Keshawn Martin is a dangerous kick returner who has already taken one back for a score. He also returns punts, so our coverage must be better than last week.

Intangibles:

Purdue clearly needs this more. We're on a roll (if you remove the Wisconsin game) and playing at home with a senior class that has overachieved this year. Michigan State can afford a loss, while we cannot. They at least have the fallback of a second chance at home next week. We do not.

Michigan State has also performed poorly on the road this year. They grabbed a win at Illinois when Illinois was terrible, but it was only a hard fought 10 point victory. They gave up a ton of points to Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in their other road trips. I am really surprised that their defense has underperformed this season. It was supposed to be a strength while the offense replaced Brian Hoyer and Jevon Ringer. Instead, the offense has been fine while the defense has given up a ton of yards through the air.

Defensively, we want to make Michigan State run the ball. They do not have a strong running game, and many of its numbers are inflated by last week and the opener against Montana State. They have had the luxury of two laughers there, while we have had about half of one against Toledo. If our secondary can keep the passing game in check I have confidence the run defense will come around. Michigan and Wisconsin have gashed us the last two weeks, but they are much better running teams than the Spartans. Of course, Illinois was a bad running team too.

Offensively, if we can establish some balance with Ralph Bolden I think we will do very well. If we somehow get him to 100 yards I do not see us losing because the passing game will have plenty of time to work.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Do not let their running game get moving
Establish Ralph Bolden
No stupid turnovers
Control the clock
Get after Cousins/Nichol

Getting Disruptive

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Knock down quarterback good.

Browse more photos »

Boiled down to its basics, playing offense successfully in the sport of football is pretty simple:

Gain 10 yards in 3 tries.
Repeat until you reach the the end zone.

(We'll skip the "does punting really make sense?" debate for now.) At the hypothetical extreme, a team that could gain exactly 3.5 yards on every play could achieve that goal. Alternately, two rushing plays of 5 yards each or a single pass completion in three attempts for 10 yards does the trick.

The goal of any football defense, then, has to be to disrupt the opposing offense's rhythm, with the goal of creating a situation where picking up 3-5 yards per play isn't enough to keep a drive going.

Looking at the statistics available to us, there are four quantitative indicators of a defense's ability to disrupt the opposing offense. In ascending order of disruptiveness:

Quarterback hurries: Increasing the odds the offense will throw an incomplete pass and lose an opportunity to gain yardage
Tackles for loss: Increasing the yardage the offense has to gain to achieve a first down by sacking the quarterback or stopping a running play for a loss
Forced fumbles: Creating the opportunity to recover a fumble and end the opponent's offensive possession
Interceptions: Definitively ending the opponent's offensive possession

(If specific stats on penalties by the opposing offense--holding, etc.--were readily available, I'd include those, as well. Also, I'm defining "forced fumble" liberally, counting any fumble by the offense, even if it's not directly attributable to a defensive player.)

With the goal of creating a nifty new statistic, we can start by summing these four numbers. There's some double counting involved (a sack can result in a forced fumble, a quarterback hurry can result in an interception), but those instances tend to place more weight on turnover-inducing plays, which is fine. The summed number is then divided by the number of plays run by the opposing offense (tempo-free!) to arrive at a number we'll call Disruption Percentage.

Here are the Disruption Percentage numbers for MSU's first seven games this season:

	QBH	TFL	FF	INT	TOTAL	Plays	Disrupt%
Montana St	5	4	0	0	9	54	16.7
Central Mich	0	6	0	1	7	76	9.2
Notre Dame	1	4	1	1	7	71	9.9
Wisconsin	4	3	1	0	8	81	9.9
Michigan	1	10	3	1	15	60	25.0
Illinois	6	8	0	1	15	60	25.0
Northwestern	2	6	3	0	11	76	14.5
TOTAL	19	41	8	4	72	478	15.1

File this table under "Promising Trends." After making disruptive plays on only about one-tenth of plays by the opposing offense in the first three games vs. FBS opponents, the MSU defense boosted the percentage to 25.0% for two consecutive games and then put up a decent percentage last week--in light of the fact that Northwestern ran so many short pass routes, which presumably makes it harder to disrupt the play.

Some of the trend has to be chalked up to the order in which our opponents were scheduled. Notre Dame has the most efficient offense in the nation according to Football Outsiders, and Central ranks in the top 30. Illinois, on the other hand, ranks among the 20 least efficient offenses in the country. But Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern, are all in the 35-50 range--so the improved numbers against the Wolverines and Wildcats are definitely an encouraging sign.

(Sidenote, in case you didn't click through to the FO page: MSU currently ranks #7 nationally in offensive efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponents, and #42 in defensive efficiency. Iowa is #16 on offense and, SHUDDER, #1 on defense.)

MSU only had to replace 4 defensive starters from last season, but two of those starters were defensive linemen who had combined for 15.0 TFLs last year (Brandon Long and Justin Kershaw) and another was Otis "Turnovers Are My Middle Name" Wiley. So it may have taken some time this season for the defense to get into a disruptive groove (the emergence of Jerel Worthy has certainly helped; see below). Let's hope the numbers are telling a real story here and the 2009 version of the defense--now having that base 4-3 defense down cold--will continue to consistently create disruptions for opposing offenses, starting this Saturday vs. Mr. Stanzi (8 INTs, 133 negative rushing yards) and Co.

Appendix: 2009 MSU Individual Defensive Disruptive Play Leader Board

PLAYER	QBH	TFL	FF	INT	TOTAL
Greg Jones	5	8.5	0	0	13.5
Trevor Anderson	4	5	0	0	9
Eric Gordon	0	7	1	0	8
Jerel Worthy	1	6.5	0	0	7.5
Chris L. Rucker	1	2	1	1	5
Colin Neely	2	2	0	0	4
David Rolf	2	1.5	0	0	3.5
Brandon Denson	2	1	0	0	3
Dan Fortener	0	1.5	0	1	2.5
Oren Wilson	1	1.5	0	0	2.5
Kevin Pickelman	0	2	0	0	2
Johnathan Strayhorn	0	2	0	0	2
Trenton Robinson	0	0	0	1	1
Jeremy Ware	0	0	0	1	1
Adam Decker	1	0	0	0	1
Jon Misch	0	0.5	0	0	0.5
Team	0	0	6	0	6
TOTAL	19	41	8	4	72

The Rivalry Is Watching You: MSU Linebacker Greg Jones v. Northwestern

grahamfiller10 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:59:10 -0000

You all better treat this installment of Watching You with special care. I had to sit through the musings of Pam Ward to bring you this extensive look on Greg Jones. I mentioned to Law Buckeye the other day that sometimes I just don't believe people when they talk. When Pam Ward talks about a defensive scheme, I don't believe she knows what she's talking about. I think she's reading the notes her assistant typed up and that annoys the hell out of me.

I do believe that Greg Jones has been dynamite this year. He has been especially effective sideline to sideline, showing impressive speed and instinct. The Spartan run defense has followed Jones' example, giving up only 99 rush yards per game, third in the Big Ten. Of course teams have been able to throw all over the Spartans shaky secondary, but that's another matter. Enjoy this extensive play by play breakdown of Greg Jones versus Northwestern.

Ed note: This is going to be interesting because the Spread passing of Kafka and the Wildcats is a different challenge than Notre Dame, CMU, or U of M. Jones will, I assume be challenged by a heavy dose of crossing routes, short sit down routes, and the occasional draw.

First Possession, First Half

The Wildcats are pinned on the Spartan 1/2 yard line - Jones is the MLB. He will play OLB at the next level. After a QB sneak and a short completion, Kafka fires a bullet opposite side for a first down. On first down, Jones is sucked in by a draw fake while Kafka completes a short pass to Markshausen. GJ recovers quickly enough to make a tackle on the play. Incomplete pass, fumble, and the Wildcats have to punt.

But you see the magic of the Spread here. Even the quick, athletic Spartan linebackers don't match up well on short routes against the slippery Northwestern receivers who bear a strange resemblance to some of my intramural flag football teams from Miami OH.

Second Possession, 0-0

Option right and Junior Eric Gordon, who is a legitimate stud, makes a nice pursuit tackle on the option. 2nd and four, NW runs up the middle for the first time in the game only to be stuffed by Jerel Worthy. Jones was double teamed at his MLB spot. On third down, the Wildcats convert on a short pass to the middle of the field. It looks like the Wildcats are avoiding GJ so far. And just as I say that, backup NW quarterback Dan Persa eludes the rush and it looks like he might have some running room until Jones fights off a block and makes a great open field tackle. Gordon cleans up on the option again and it's third down. Jones blitzes for the first time ineffectively because of a quick Kafka release, first down. All you Spartans don't worry, I thought to myself, the NW line will break down as the game goes on.

The Wildcats run into a wall at midfield. After a stuffed QB draw and an eight yard completion, a third down screen is stuffed by Gordon and Chris L. Rucker. Jones had read screen and flowed to the ball also.

Third Possession, 0-0

A traditional off tackle run from shotgun opens up this series, but Decker and Jones clean up on Arby Fields. Two quarterback runs give NW a first down around midfield. Ah, finally an impact play by Jones. A swing pass to Brown and Jones moves fluidly towards the ball; a missed tackle by a Spartan CB allows GJ to clean up with a solid tackle, his third. End of the first quarter and I've only stabbed myself 21 times for each sentence spoken by Pam Ward.

2nd and 2 at midfield, Jonesy crowding the line and NW picks up the first down with an off tackle three yard run. Eric Gordon with his eighth tackle - maybe I spotlighted the wrong guy? Nope, I didn't; the NW Spread almost always results in mucho tackles for OLB's because it's an outside edge focused offense. On first and ten, GJ vacates middle to go with a veering WR and Kafka runs into the space that was left. 16 yard run, but not really Jones' fault, just a great run by Kakfa. Still, someone should have had contain. First and ten on the 30 - Jones run blitzes, stops the pitch and clamps down for his fourth tackle, this one for no gain. Textbook way to blitz and adapt. 2nd and ten, another Jones blitz and he hurries Kafka into the waiting arms of Gordon, who now has 9 tackles and a sack. Fourth and 15, punt time.

Fourth Possession, 0-0

Tired of just being on the Lombardi and Lott Award lists, Jones directs the drum line in a rousing rendition of "Hollaback Girl." On first down, Kafka zips a ball into Jones' vicinity for a 26 yard gain. Again, not really Jones' fault, just a weak zone coverage. Another GJ blitz but the quick swing pass negates any effectiveness. This is followed by a great across field throw by Kafka, who is something like 11-14, 120 yards by now.

First down and Jones drops into coverage, moving his hips well and running with a tight end on a Go route. Kafka throws elsewhere incomplete. After a lone line of completions to the sideline, Kafka finishes the drive with a touchdown pass.

This drive is a great example of Spread football - take on a team with superior athletes (Jones, Worthy, Anderson, Gordon) and stay completely away from those studs.

Fifth Possession, 7-0 NW

As I predicted, the NW O-Line breaks down and Anderson breaks through for a 7 yard sack. Kafka finally throws into the soft zone for eight yards, 3rd and 9. Then comes a great play by Jones: He blitzes, gets cut down by a back, springs up, watches Kafka sprint past him, turns his hips and catches Kafka by the sideline, dragging him right through the chain gang and into the wall. Flags fly, but Jones smartly initiated contact in bounds and the refs decide not to penalize him for being a hard ass. Punt time, and Jones has his fifth tackle.

Sixth Possession, 7-0 NW

A couple of time killing runs and dump offs take us to half...

Seventh Possession, Second Half, 7-0 NW

Michigan State rolls up on of it's corners, probably a good idea considering Kafka has complete about 8 passes in front of backpedaling cornerbacks or soft outside zones. Jones is lined up as an OLB and Gordon cleans up the running back with a big shot. 2nd and 9, here's a wrinkle from Narduzzi - Jones as a left side DE. Jones throws in a spin move and gets his first QB hurry of the day - not surprisingly, Gordon cleans up again. 3rd and 7, GJ lined up as DE again, but a quick slant to Andrew Brewer gives the Wildcats a first down. On first, Drake Dunsmore (that's a name straight out of Gossip Girl) gets stripped by Rucker, Spartan ball.

Good to see Narduzzi tossing in the occasional changeup with Jones. GJ was looking bored against the sideline out routes and slants.

Eighth Possession, 7-7

Option right with Kafka and GJ holds his ground, spying Kafka nicely and forgetting about the pitch back. Kafka sees Jones spying him and reverses field, picking up 1 yard. A baby bump out of bounds draws one of the weakest personal foul penalties I can imagine. 1st and ten at midfield and Stephan Simmons runs outside right, only to get his clock cleaned by Jones after a two yard run. Good ol' fashioned smack right there, six tackles on the day. 2nd and eight, Jones trips on the blitz and gets pancaked blocked. 3rd and 8 and Kafka scrambles for five yard - I think Jones sat out that play, It's the first play he's taken off.

Punt time and Pam Ward shows a complete lack of football knowledge by chastising the Northwestern punter for a perfect punt that is fair caught at the MSU 13. In response, I mute the TV and toss the remote out the window, Ah, silence is golden.

Ninth Possession, 14-7 MSU

The Wildcats have Kafka in the shotgun in a one-back set. A pass is drilled between Gordon and GJ for a five yard gain - seven tackles on the day. 2nd and five, a delayed GJ blitz leads to an unimpeded sack.

3rd and long, here comes GJ on a blitz AGAIN. He pinballs off two blocks and is primed to sack Kafka when he's cut down from behind by a big lineman. Penalty declined, punt time. That's five straight stops by the Spartan defense.

Tenth Possession, 24-7 MSU

Great swing pass, but the Wildcats aren't going to make a comeback with 7 yard passes. Jones with a quarterback blitz, but an effective dump pass leads to a Wildcat first down. The refs miss an obvious hold and Kafka rushes outside left for a nine yard run. It's 2nd and one on the MSU 40, how will Narduzzi stem the onrushing Wildcats? A short run leads to a first down, but Jones is yards away. With a big lead, it seems that Jones is lined up 5 yards off the LOS and is playing a bit of a prevent pass coverage.

After a short completion, Kafka throws a beautiful lob for a 20 yard gain. It's first and ten on the MSU 16 - a Jones blitz leads to a false start, this is the second time a GJ blitz has led to a false start. 2nd and 15, GJ matches up with a superback and baits Kafka into an incompletion. Smart, smart play. Man to man across the board and Kafka completes a ball to everyone's favorite walk in, Zeke Marshausen. First and goal on the one and the Spartans make two stops, leading to a big third and goal. GJ blitz again and Markshausen catches a slant for TD.

Eleventh Possession, 24-14 MSU

Jones picks up a streaking WR in coverage and easily follows him. The 4-3 has been effective today against Northwestern, keeping a steady stream of pressure (three sacks), stuffing any inside runs, and allowing the zone coverage to halt any possible big plays. Brandon Denson and GJ follow a swing pass and stuff it for two yards. On second down, Trevor Anderson chases down a running back to cause third down. Another Jones blitz is mitigated by a quick slant for first down.

Jones goes back to DE and beats his man again with that ever present spin move. He gets his second quarterback hurry. Not satisfied, Jones blitzes from the MLB position, beats a double team with another spin move to get his third quarterback hurry. 3rd and long, no impact by Jones on the blitz, but it's 4th and long after an incomplete pass. Will they blitz GJ again? Yes and the quick out is two yards short. Turnover on downs.

(Jones also made two solo tackles on the final drive, which I was unable to watch because my DVR did not record it)

Conclusions, Statistics, Etc.

Greg Jones Stats: 14 tackles (9 solo, 5 assisted), 1 official quarterback hurry, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup.

Positives of Greg Jones: Moves laterally unbelievably well. Obviously the defensive leader, instructing his teammates where to go. Loves the concept of hitting people, dragging ball carriers down, etc. When allowed to pin his ears back, GJ destroyed the offensive tackles with a simple spin move, causing havoc in the Wildcat backfield and leading to sacks - who knew he was such an effective pass rusher from the DE spot?

Conclusions: Because of the high number of plays that NW ran, the tackle totals are a bit inflated for Jones. But the sheer fact that he didn't miss any tackles speaks volumes to the solid presence he's been for the Spartans. I balked at calling GJ a "freakish athlete" early in the season, but the speed and high IQ make him pretty damn NFL ready.

Is he the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year so far? I say he's in the top five right now, along with Brian Rolle (OSU), O'Brien Schofield (UW), Adrien Clayborn (Iowa), and Josh Hull (PSU). Leading the Big Ten in tackles won't hurt, but the 30+ points allowed to Wisky, CMU, and ND won't help his case (even if it was mostly on the secondary).

Preview: Michigan State vs. Michigan

LVS — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:35:20 -0000

Rawk music, man. Rawk.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, BIG TEN NETWORK
WEATHER: 50 DEGREES, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN

So, I suppose this is where The Great Redemption Tour begins. We were hoping/expecting a better effort at Wisconsin, and that was shot to hell by the second quarter. So, will the team (defense, really) show up this week? I've talked about the "crossroads" idea in this space for the past two weeks; it was important for the Notre Dame game, and it was even more important last week. But, here it is: win tomorrow, and with games against seemingly-awful Illinois and Northwestern looming, we have a great chance to be 3-1 in Big Ten play heading into the Iowa game. Lose, and it's nearly impossible to concoct a scenario where we even make the freakin' Motor City Bowl. That's what's on the line.

But, apart from the long-view considerations, it'd be a lie to deny that this game means more than most. Of course I want our guys to demolish Michigan tomorrow. We haven't had a winning streak against the Wolverines in more than 40 years. How sweet would that be? And it's absolutely a winnable game: Michigan has an explosive offense but quite possibly the worst (non-Montana State) defense we'll face all season. We can outscore them, but we'll have to show a hell of a lot more moxie and resolve than we've shown the past three weeks. But if our guys can't be motivated for this game, under these circumstances, well HEY LOOK BASKETBALL SEASON STARTS SOON!

---

A legitimate argument can be made that Michigan should have lost to Indiana last week. Michigan was outgained, lost the turnover battle, and would have lost had it not been for Indiana repeatedly settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. (Of course, you can give the Wolverine defense some credit for that, as well.) Previously, as we all know, they won a roller coaster game against Notre Dame wherein they also were outgained. So, this is clearly not an invincible Michigan team, although there's certainly a lot to be said for making big plays at the right time (winning late touchdown drives against ND and Indiana, the quasi-interception last week, etc.). It's something we were tremendous at last season and have been failerrific at so far this one.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: While it would have been difficult not to improve on their 2008 horror show, this year's Michigan offense much more closely approximates what Wolverine fans expected to get with Rich Rodriguez: an often-dominating running attack that nonetheless bears no resemblance to the Carr/Moeller/Schembechler/Crisler/Yost power running games of yore. Michigan will take very few snaps (if any) from under center, and once their quarterback receives the ball, speed, misdirection, and variety are key.

If you've recently eaten your lunch, don't watch.

Michigan has 961 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns on the season so far, compared with 1771 and 17 for the entirety of last season; in this case, stats don't lie. This is an excellent rushing team. Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown are Michigan's primary running backs; in a nutshell, Minor is the more punishing runner of the two, while, as you can see above, Brown is, uh, fast. Maize 'n Brew has been particulary impressed by Brown:

Carlos Brown should never, ever, ever leave the field. Ever. He is by far Michigan's best and most effective back right now. He's showing us a cut back ability I never knew he had. He's running with authority, carrying tacklers for an extra five yards. He's breaking away from everyone. He's our best pass catcher out of the backfield. Never take him out. Ever.

As mentioned, Brown has also shown ability as a receiver: 6 catches for 111 yards (a very impressive 18.5 yards per catch, for a running back no less) and a touchdown already this season.

I'm also concerned about the weird shakeups going on with our defensive line. Blake Treadwell (ok) and Dion Sims (what?) are possible new additions to the d-line this week; I understand that given how things have transpired over the first three games, a change is in order. But seriously, this level of shake-up right before a big game against a team with a dominating rushing attack is not. a. good. thing. Our rush defense's performance against Wisconsin was encouraging to the extent that there were no home runs, but quite discouraging in the sense that, seemingly, whenever they needed yards, they got them. Our rush defense is still better than the pass defense, but I fear that this is a mismatch in Michigan's favor.

Pass offense for Michigan is a huge upgrade over last season, if nothing else, as the FORCIER = ACCURACY bit has at least somewhat been proven to be true. Forcier is completing 62% of his passes -- unspectacular but solid -- and has 7 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. (One of the interceptions against Indiana was particularly bad.) But Michigan fans are relatively impressed, even by his less impressive performances:

Well, if you were expecting a game where Tate truly played like a freshman, this was it. Even so, he played like a senior leading two critical scoring drives in the fourth quarter. You take the bad with the good sometimes, and dammit, the good keeps prevailing. [ . . . ]

The Kid isn't perfect, but he is really, really good. One thing that I especially liked is that he used his safety valve when the home run wasn't available. The biggest thing he's gotta work on is realizing he's not the most athletic guy on the field anymore, and getting rid of the ball rather than running around like a chicken with his head cut off. It'll come with time, but overall, even though the middle of the game was kinda meh, a good start and finish for Forcier.

I'm completely sure that Forcier will be able to execute the quick slants and the outs that Wisconsin was repeatedly able to use to good effect. However, he is a freshman, and one whose first start on the road is against a major rival. He made mistakes against Indiana and he's going to make mistakes against us; the key will be capitalizing on those mistakes. Our secondary has only two interceptions this season: one was on a terrible throw by Dan LeFevour, and the second was an end-of-the-half Hail Mary by Notre Dame. I'm sure that Mike Valenti won't mind if I appropriate his mantra: our guys need to MAKE PLAYS.

Michigan's wide receivers are solid but unexceptional, and range from the speedy-but-slightly-inept (Darryl Stonum) to the shifty slot guys (Kelvin Grady and Martavious Odoms) to the seemingly-underused outside receiver whom I still have nightmares of gashing us with 40 yard fly rountes (Junior Hemingway). Perhaps the guy I'm most concerned about is Kevin Koger--given the way David Garrett carved us up last week, I'll be concerned about tight ends for the rest of the year. But Koger has shown a penchant for catching everything thrown his way. I expect him to have at least one touchdown. (Late edit: mgoblog agrees with me:)

Given the tendency of the MSU linebackers to suck up against the run and the absolute field day UW tight ends had against Michigan State, this might be the game in which Kevin Koger goes nuts

I don't know what to say about our secondary which hasn't already been said. They're not good. Might as well give Johnny Adams a whirl; how much worse can it get? In other news, getting some pressure on Forcier may be possible due to injuries on Michigan's offensive line: they've struggled particularly on the right side of the line and HOORAY that's where Trevor Anderson lines up. Fingers crossed.

Finally, Denard Robinson will obviously play some at quarterback for Michigan. When he's in the game, use everyone necessary to spy him; he's absurd with his feet but will not beat us passing the ball.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Thankfully, it will be playing against a very poor Michigan defense. Said Brian after the Eastern Michigan game:

The team is basically what we thought it was. If you want to load up against it and grind down the field you'll have success doing it, though I wonder if teams will manage to score a lot of touchdowns with that sort of approach. Michigan's going to bend a lot; hopefully they won't break.

Greg Robinson is busy installing all sorts of different stuff and slants and various games to cover up for the fact that he's got no depth, two seniors, and three walk-ons contributing. I think we're going to see a lot of instances where the games work and Michigan swarms something and a lot of instances where Michigan gets caught and gashed. There are places to attack this defense, and the safeties are going to have to do a lot of cleanup in Big Ten play.

Is there any upside for these guys? Maybe. It is a new system so Michigan is behind mentally and should improve more than veteran units whose failings are more likely to be physical shortcomings than mental errors. Look at Eastern's long touchdown drive: mental error after mental error. If Michigan can fix those things—or, more conservatively, mitigate them—they appear to have the horsepower to be completely mediocre. Again: getting Ezeh and Mouton up to a level where they are decent is the key to the defense's season.

Of course, we haven't proven the ability to grind anyone down thus far. I suppose that if it's going to happen at all, it could happen this week, as Michigan's rush defense is nothing to write home about: 69th in the country at the moment. (But then again, our rush offense is 86th in the country, and that's having played against 3 crappy rush defenses and one mediocre one.) Based on last week's performances, you'd figure that Caper and Winston will pretty much be option 1 and 1A, but they should be strictly be used as a change of pace. (If it rains hard and we can't throw the ball, we're going to lose.)

So, essentially, this is the easiest preview ever. We as MSU fans, should want 2 things from our offense:

Kirk Cousins throwing . . .
. . . to whomever's not being covered by Donovan Warren.

No need to rehash the Cousins/Nichol thing at this point: every Friday night, I say a little prayer that ~~Nichol~~ Cousins will play the whole game; every Saturday, I have a corresponding crisis of faith.

But as to the Donovan Warren thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere. The major thing being lost in all the discussion of the game-ending-interception-that-maybe-wasn't against Indiana is, why were they throwing at Warren in the first place? Michigan's secondary is otherwise terrible:

Whatever lingering hopes you had that the corner spot opposite Warren could turn into a non-liability should be put in the corner and told to be quiet for a while. JT Floyd did better than I thought he did live but still remains a timid redshirt freshman who transparently lacks the speed to be an elite corner. Michigan is going to have to cover up for him. Kovacs is okay but really slow.

Not mentioned in that blurb is that JT Floyd was only getting playing time because Boubacar Cissoko spent the first three games of the season throwing his name into the "WORST MICHIGAN CORNERBACK EVARRR" discussion. Two of Cunningham, Dell, and White will be matched against inferior defensive players. Throw the ball to them, Kirk.

As far as I can tell, only two things will be able to derail our passing game. 1) The weather. Dammit, the weather. 2) If Michigan is able to get lots of pressure on Cousins/Nichol. And, it's possible: Brandon Graham utterly pwn3d the right side of our line last year, and this year's line is obviously banged up:

Starting left guard Joel Foreman didn't play against the Badgers because of an ankle injury. Tackle J'Michael Deane injured his leg earlier this season and also didn't play. Joel Nitchman, a starting center, moved to guard at Wisconsin, while John Stipek once again played center to help fill a void.

Foreman should return to the starting lineup on Saturday, which should be a big boost for the team. In any event, our pass blocking was generally very good in the first three games of the season, but not so much against Wisconsin. Given Michigan's struggles against the pass, I wouldn't be surprised if they'll abandon trying to contain us in the secondary and instead send the house with regularity in the hopes of shutting down the pass that way. (Of course, if they do that, it would behoove us to try to throw screens to Caper, and get tight ends involved with with quick go routes and so forth)

FINAL PREDICTION: Bleh. I felt good about the last two weeks, and I don't about this one, although I'll admit that even after last year's triumph, I still have a mental block regarding us being successful against Michigan. I do think that the coaching staff's relentless focus on this game will help out; last year, we were clearly prepared to play Michigan, as we did a tremendous job of timing their snaps, taking away their preferred wheel routes, and generally calling a pitch-perfect defensive game. I'd love to believe that we can do that again, but we've seen nothing so far to indicate that we can do it. Furthermore, Michigan runs the type of non-traditional spread offense which we've n ever done well against. The weather forecast doesn't make me feel any better. When I talked to Brian earlier this week, I said 41-38 Michigan; I don't think it'll be quite that high scoring, but I still think the general idea's right. 34-31 Michigan.

I beg you to talk me out of this prediction in the comments.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Montana State

LVS — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:50:30 -0000

Home, home again

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. MONTANA STATE BOBCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
12:00 NOON ET
TV: BIG TEN NETWORK (coverage map). RADIO AFFILIATES HERE.
WEATHER: SUNNY, 78 DEGREES (IIIIIIT'S A BEEEEEAUTIFUL DAAAAAAAAAY FOR FOOTBALL!)

Good riddance, offseason. It's time to play, as Montana State comes to town on what looks to be an utterly beautiful football Saturday. The Bobcats are the first FCS (1-AA) opponent Michigan State (herein MSU, dammit), has ever faced; Montana St. finished 2008 on something of a high note, winning 4 of their last 5; additionally, they shouldn't be intimidated by the large Spartan Stadium crowd, as in recent years they have played on the road against Minnesota, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Colorado (whom they beat, lololol). Still, this is a game that MSU must win and will win. The bigger question is whether we'll be able to resolve some of the remaining controversies at quarterback, running back, and elsewhere.

When Michigan State is on defense: As you can imagine, writing this preview is relatively difficult. I've never seen Montana State play, and after tomorrow, likely never will again. Nonetheless, it is clear that they return several of their skill position leaders from last season:

Cody Kempt will play quarterback. Last season, he completed almost 52% of his passes, and threw nine touchdowns and twelve interceptions, for a highly meh 105.2 quarterback rating.
C.J. Palmer figures to be the feature back; he was very impressive in limited action last year, rushing for 312 yards (5.0 per carry) and 7 touchdowns. At 6'0" and 235 pounds, and with that high touchdown total, it seems that he may have been last season's goal line specialist, a la Jehuu Caulcrick.
DeSean Thomas was the Bobcats' leading receiver, and returns. He grabbed 24 passes for 4 touchdowns last season..

Additionally, as commenter MSUBobcats has pointed out, Montana State is reasonably experienced on the offensive line. Their line has 70 combined starts, which is less than Ivan Maisel's magic number of 75, but is relatively more experienced than MSU's line.

From MSU: I think I'm not alone in hoping, above all else, to see a dominating performance from the defensive line. Our guys have potential but the results weren't always there last season. A good showing by Trevor Anderson should be a given; similar performances by Colin Neely and our interior linemen would be very encouraging. Last season, Minnesota sacked Montana State twice and allowed the Bobcats 138 rushing yards. I'd like to see us improve on both of those numbers.

At linebacker and in the secondary, I'll be watching to see the new guys: true freshman Chris Norman is in the two-deep at OLB, and I'll be interested to see if he can live up to his considerable, and growing, hype. Obviously, we're not at all worried about Greg Jones, but he is switching to a new position. All eyes would be on him anyway, but I'll be interested to see how he acquits himself in the middle. These are probably unrealistic expectations, but against Montana State, anything less than a dominating performance would be a bit of a disappointment. In the secondary, I'll be honest, I'm most looking forward to seeing Trenton Robinson play. Even though he won't be starting, he's been hyped ever since spring practice, and I haven't seen him play yet. Additionally, I'll be paying attention to Chris L. Rucker, as he transitions to nickelback, and to how our new starting corners perform.

From our friends at Jolly Green Giants.

When Michigan State is on offense: As to Montana State's defense, I'll let their coach speak for himself:

Defensively, we’ve got a headline player named Dane Fletcher, a defensive end who’s a candidate on the watch list for the Buck Buchanan Award, which is awarded to the top defensive player in the country in the FCS [Football Championship Subdivision] division. He’s a great player with a very high motor; he’s a high-energy, active defensive lineman.

Overall, our defensive front seven is pretty strong. But we’ve been riddled with injuries in the secondary, so to me the big question mark in this game is, ‘Can we hold up in the secondary.’ I don’t mean just against the pass, but can we come up and make tackles and get people stopped. We have very little experience there because of the injuries we’ve had.

For those of you keeping score at home, Dane Fletcher is #47.

The offensive preview is short and sweet, as we all know the issues and concerns. In a perfect world, I'd love for either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol to create some separation from the other, so that we have a clear starter going into the Central game. Given that they've been LOCKED UP IN A TIGHT ONE for the past nine months, that's probably unrealistic. So, I hope they both play well; given the banged-up condition of Montana State's secondary, this probably shouldn't be too much of a challege.

More realistically, I'd love for one of our running backs to separate himself from the pack. It's highly disconcerting to me that there's no clear choice between our top three running backs (Caulton Ray, Larry Caper, and Edwin Baker) and hardly any difference between them and the next three (Glenn Winston (ugh -- ed.), and presumably A.J. Jimmerson and Andre Anderson). This has to end. We need to narrow the bulk of the carries down to one or two guys, and soon. I'm guessing that it'll ultimately be one of the freshmen; a great performance from either of them would make me a very happy man while leaving the stadium.

Finally, much as I'd like to see a great performance from the defensive line, I really hope to see our offensive line dominate. Interestingly enough, the aforementioned Dane Fletcher is a left defensive end, so he'll be lined up against Brendon Moss, one of our new starters; he may/should provide a good test. Nonetheless, this is the area where a halfway-decent big conference team should be able to separate itself from a FCS opponent: we're bigger and stronger than they are, and we need to thoroughly win the line of scrimmage battles.

FINAL PREDICTION: While these guys aren't terrible, we're simply the better football team. This looks a lot like the UAB from two seasons ago, and I'd bet that it gets ugly in a hurry. 49-13, M(ichigan)SU. Please comment away with your thoughts and predictions.

More than that, though, I'm so flippin' excited to get back to the stadium, I can hardly contain myself. Hope to see many of you in EL tomorrow. (For those of you watching at home, there'll be a game thread right here for your chatting enjoyment.)

GO GREEN!

The 2009 Michigan Football Preview, Part One: The Offensive Line

Maize n Brew Dave — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:45:16 -0000

It's go time people. There are just four days until kickoff. Frankly, those days can't end quick enough. After three weeks of practice. Months of tedium. Oh, and a two-day stretch of mind blowing incompetence from the Free Press editorial staff. Football is just about here. That means it's time to get a better handle on how the Michigan Football team looks heading into the 2009 season. In Spring practice we thought we had all the answers. After a week of Fall Practice, all those answers went out the window. So what we're left with is a pile o' questions about who is going to start where and whether talented player A will overtake talented played B for position X.

That's what we're here for. Over the next few days leading up to kick off, Maize n Brew will be providing you with some answers to your questions about the team, the season, and what to expect. We'll try to keep it grounded, but we're not guaranteeing anything. We are fans (compete and total homers), after all. If you can't wait for the season to get here and want answers on how it'll play out, we've already previewed the season in depth. Wins and losses too! Take a look, here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's season predictions. There's your quick fix if you need a baseline.

But this is going to be a little more indepth. That's why I'm splitting things up in to a couple of separate posts. The unit we know the most about at this point is the offense, so lets start there. The Depth Chart is out, so we'll break it down.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview: The Offensive Line

The linemen do the dirty work, so they get top billing. They also get top billing because this unit, more than any other, will determine the fate of Michigan's season. Don't believe me? Ask yourself how much better Michigan's season would've turned out had Threet/Sheridan not been running for their lives and had time to throw? What about the run game? You saw the improvement as the line improved. For this offense to work, the linemen are the linchpin of the system. They have to be mobile, quick, and able to get to the second level of blockers; something they were rarely able to do last year.

This year Michigan returns 4 starters and 7 players with starting experience. From Left to Right, the line is as follows: Mark Ortmann (LT), Steve Schilling (LG), David Molk (C), David Moosman (RG), Mark Huyge (RT). Your primary backups will be Perry Dorrestein (LT), Ricky Barnum (LG), Rocko Khoury (C), John Ferrara (RG), and Patrick Omameh (RT).

The Starters

via www.mgoblue.com

Of the starting lineup, only Huyge hasn't seen game action. To an extent my concerns about his abilities were assuaged by his performance in the spring game, praise he garnered when the Big Ten Network did their Michigan practice show, and the fact he would've started last year if not for a knee injury. Everyone else has extensive starting experience, and frankly, the inside of Michigan's line may be one of the strongest three man sets in the Big Ten. Both Molk and Schilling were blue chip recruits, with Molk being rated the #1 Center in his class and Schilling a 5 star tackle. Moosman wasn't as heralded, but he progressed wonderfully last season and at 6-5, 295, with quick feet, I'm to the point where I'm expecting big things from him as well. The interior line's experience combined with their talent should mean very big things for the interior running game. Looking at the schedule, only Penn State returns a pair of outstanding Defensive Tackles. There are some units with one good DT returning, but no one else in the conference has a dominant interior defensive line. What that means is look for Rich Rodriguez to use that straight up the gut advantage in the run game a lot more than last season.

(more of the preview after the jump...)

While I'm confident in the Guards and Center (David Molk is a badass), I'm still a little concerned on the edges. Sure I think Huyge and Ortmann will be more than serviceable at Right and Left Tackle. But I don't think they're going to be dominant. Reports out of camp were that Brandon Graham was tearing through the tackles on a semi regular basis. Your reaction is probably "so what, it's Brandon Graham," but I think there's a little more to it. The Big Ten is absolutely loaded with excellent Defensive Ends this year. Top to bottom you could probably rank the ten best DE's in any order and make a legitimate argument for it. Want proof? Even Indiana has a pair of DE's that would start tomorrow at Penn State. Trevor Anderson is back at MSU. Thaddeus Gibson at OSU. Ryan Kerrigan at Purdue. And the list goes on. Wanna know what's weird, the tackles dodge a bullet because Correy Wootton and Northwestern aren't on the schedule. Ever thought you'd say that? Ortmann is a good Tackle, but he can get caught up in his own feet from time to time. Huyge moves well, but we only have limited video to go on. Honestly we're throwing darts with a partial blindfold on here because our info is so limited. Ortmann played last year with a series of injuries including a shoulder injury of some kind that meant he could barely move on of his arms. Huyge's ankle injury caused him to miss the entire season. When you combine uncertainty at the position with the depth of talent at the End position in the Big Ten this year, even optimistic fans have to admit the Tackles may be better than they were last year but could still have a rough year despite it.

The Back Ups

This is the biggest difference between this year and last. Depth. If someone goes down, we've got two guys behind him that are ready to go. Last year you were holding your breath because no one had played. If an unknown starter went down, you plugged in another young, unknown to get mauled. Notsomcuh this year. The line took its lumps last year, but in the process Michigan was still able to redshirt a number of talented players. A year later, they're much larger, much stronger, and have a full year of practice under their belt in Rodriguez' system. With Ortmann and Moosman departing after this season, they're ability to step in from time to time will critical not just to Michigan's success this year, but in 2010 as well.

via blog.mlive.com

At this point you're probably aware of who Perry Dorrestein and John Ferrera are. But just in case here's a quick catch up. Dorrestein was a middling recruit on the offensive line who actually walked on to the team sans scholarship. Ferrara was a low mid Defensive Tackle recruit who was moved to offensive line last year when the Coaches went "Holy hell, there's no one on the Offensive Line!" They are your primary backups at Left Tackle and Right Guard. Now before you go jumping out a window, keep this in mind, Ferrara started five games at Left Guard last year before Schilling moved inside. For a guy that played guard for all of fifteen minutes before the season started, he was actually pretty good. His experience and size (6'4" 280) make him a more than capable backup and fill in starter if need be. Dorrestein I'm not as high on, but the fact remains he started in four games at Tackle last year and acquitted himself well. He's not going to be a starter unless injuries require it, but he's a capable backup.

The rest of the backups you should be excited about too. Patrick Omameh is apparently going to be an absolute beast at right tackle. The very definition of a sleeper, Omameh was a lightly regarded prospect who everyone said had the "potential" and "body" to be something special. Just no one wanted to expend a scholarship in the Big Ten for the kid to develop. Michigan did. Now they get to reap the benefits as Omameh made a massive push to overtake Huyge for the RT slot. Not bad for a redshirt frosh. Ricky Barnum was one of the snake oil pitches that worked two years ago, as Rodriguez slithered Barnum out from under Urban Meyer. Barnum was the 5th rated center in his class and seems to have emerged as one of Michigan's soon to be stars on the OLine. He's another kid who made a push for playing time but ran into having Schilling ahead of him. Then there's Traverse City's own, Rocko Khoury. The big redshirt freshman likely won't see a lot of time at center with David Molk in front of him, but you should be glad to have him back there. The 6'6" 280 pound kid has a nice little mean streak and had enough of an off season of Mark Ortmann to throw some praise his way at Big Ten Media Days. One other guy to watch for in the back-up category is true freshman Quinton Washington. Washington shocked a lot of the older members of the team with his natural strength. Steve Schilling noticed it immediately when the freshman was standing up defenders on the first day of pads even though he'd only been in camp Barwis for a couple of weeks. I can't wait to see what happens to Washington after a year in the gym.

Injuries?

One guy I haven't mentioned is Tim McAvoy. Unfortunately, McAvoy suffered a knee injury in practice and Rodriguez indicated he be out for a couple of weeks. It's really too bad. McAvoy had a legitimate shot at playing time this year, but it's likely his senior season will mostly be spent in the trainers room and on the bench. At this point though, everyone else seems mostly healthy.

2009 Outlook

With the exception of tailback, the Offensive Line is easily the deepest, most experienced position Michigan has this year. The starting five are talented and mobile. The backups are experienced or brimming with talent and strength. As an added bonus, Michigan's ability to ~~tort~~ trot three quarterbacks onto the field who can run or roll out of the pocket should greatly increase the line's effectiveness because it will prevent teams from pinning their ears back and bumrushing the quarterback like they did last year.

The strength on the line will clearly be it's interior. I suspect you'll see multiple plays this fall where the center or one of the guards is used to maul a linebacker or two. When you've got the strength and speed of the interior line, you can do those sorts of things. The edges won't be quite at the level of the intereior, but it should still be measurably better than last year. Ortmann and Huyge have without a doubt learned a substantial amount going face to face with Graham all summer long. I think Ortman should have a decent year, but he's not going to remind anyone of Jake Long. He'll be a good tackle, to expect anything more at this point is unfair and unwarranted. On the other side of the line I am very excited to see Huyge in game action. I can't really tell you why. Rumors, hype, TV, and spring film all make me think he's actually going to be pretty good. It's a total hunch, so take it FWIW.

One of the biggest differences you'll see this year the that you'll see all five linemen on the same page. For the majority of the 2008 season the Michigan Offensive Line was a mess in terms of execution. Players were blocking the wrong guy, they were running aimlessly after they released to the second level, they were telegraphing the snap counts. You're not going to see that this season. These guys actually know where they're supposed to go, who they're supposed to block, and how the plays work. The result will be our running backs and quarterbacks having room to run and not having to escape their first tackler five yards behind the LoS. In the passing game, we'll have to see. I think the group will execute much better than they did last year. But until we see Tate, or Denard or Nick throw the ball, I don't know how it'll turn out. What I do know is that they'll have a lot more time than last year.

Overall, this should be one of the most improved units in the conference, let alone the team. Play on playas.

Kirk Cousins is MSU's Name Only Starter, and Other Observations on Michigan State Depth Chart

Pete Rossman — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 16:30:27 -0000

Coach Mark Dantonio named Kirk Cousins the starter for the Montana State game Saturday. However, Keith Nichol is still listed as a co-starter, and will also play in the first half. That's probably one of the least interesting parts of today's release of the depth chart (depth chart can be found here in PDF). Let's break down all the positions:

RB: Caulton Ray is the starter; Edwin Baker and Larry Caper are both listed in the #2 spot. All three of them will probably see a decent amount of snaps on Saturday.
WR: Blair White is the starter on one side, Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham are co-starters on the other side. Keshawn Martin is backing up Blair White - no real surprises here with the exception of redshirt freshman Myles White at third string.

OT: Rocco Cironi might be more injured than we've been led to believe, as Bowling Green transfer D.J. Young is listed as a co-starter at left tackle along with Cironi. At right tackle, fifth-year senior Brendon Moss has the start ahead of another fifth-year senior, Mike Schmeding. Don't be surprised if someone else starts at right tackle in a couple games.

OG: Joel Foreman holds down his spot at left guard ahead of Ethan Ruhland. Jared McGaha has won the spot at right guard, beating out J'Michael Deane.

C: No surprises, as Joel Nitchman's starting. One time D-Lineman John Stipek is listed as the backup.

TE: The only surprise here is that Dion Sims is listed as the third tight end, behind Charlie Gantt and Brian Linthecum.

FB: Recuited as a linebacker in the JLS era, Andrew Hawken is the starting fullback ahead of Josh Rouse and Andrew Pendy.

DE: Nothing drastic has happened since camp started, as Trevor Anderson and Colin Neely are starting, with David Rolf and Tyler Hoover as the back-ups. Not much to see here.

DT: Oren Wilson has kept one of the starting spots, and Kevin Pickelman has won the second starting spot from Jerel Worthy. Antonio Jeremiah's at third string still, and isn't likely to see the field unless he can get under 320 pounds.

MLB: Greg Jones, duh. Adam Decker's behind Jones, also duh.

OLB: Eric Gordon's keeping the starting spot he had last year, and Brandon Denson's starting on the other side. It looks like all the hype around freshman Chris Norman wasn't just hot air, he's got a spot in the two deep. Jon Misch battled injuries last year, and now healthy, he's got the other OLB two-deep spot.

CB: Jeremy Ware and Ross Weaver are co-starters at one spot, and that's the only news here.

S: Danny Fortener and Marcus Hyde are starters, as announced last week.

K/P: Swenson. Bates. Done. Of note: Swenson will be performing kickoffs.

PR: Keshawn Martin will return punts in this game, with Dell backing him up.

KR: A.J. Jimmerson will be one kick returner, and either Martin or Glenn Winston will be the other starter. I'm guessing Martin will eventually win the job, since Winston probably still needs some time to get into playing shape.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Michigan State Spartans

BoilerTMill — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:15:49 -0000

My Big Ten road trip last season was to East Lansing. I braved the wind and cold to officially watch our bowl chances go up in smoke. This year, Michigan State comes to West Lafayette on Senior Day. It will be the final home game for 21 Purdue seniors, and if we don't have five wins or more at this point, it could mean the difference between a bowl game and another season home for the holidays.

Michigan State is an interesting team. We did not adapt to the cold well last year and had a number of dropped passes. We handed them seven points on an awful interception before halftime. Also, at one point we had to play a fourth string walk-on scout team quarterback. Still, we did not play that badly (at least on defense) in a 21-7 loss. That gives me hope that this year can be different.

2008 Record: 9-4, (6-2 Big Ten)

Bowl Result: lost Capitol One Bowl 24-12 to Georgia

Blog Representation: The Only Colors, The Enlightened Spartan, Sparty MSU

Series with Purdue: Michigan State leads 30-28-3

Last Purdue win: 11/4/2006 at Michigan State 17-15

Last Michigan State win: 11/8/2008 at Michigan State 21-7

Last season for the Spartans:

Last year was a Purdue-esque season for Michigan State. I think we can all agree that the Big Ten as a whole was in the middle of a down year. Michigan State played nine mediocre-to-bad teams and four really good teams. Predictably, they finished with a 9-4 record. They lost a relatively close game on the road at California, got trucked by Ohio State and Penn State, then lost the Capitol One Bowl to a good Georgia team. There was little doubt they were the third best team in the conference, as there was clear separation between them, the top of Ohio State and Penn State, and everyone else.

Are Sparty and Pete long lost brothers?

A huge reason for their success, Javon Ringer, is now gone. Brian Hoyer is also gone at the quarterback position. Their 2009 non-conference schedule is sneaky tough. Aside from a gimme game against Montana State, Michigan State hosts two of the better teams in the MAC. Games against Central Michigan and Western Michigan are hardly easy wins because both teams feature solid offenses with veteran quarterbacks. Both are more than capable of pulling an upset. There is also a trip to Notre Dame, where everyone in the country hopes the Spartans can continue their ownership of the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium. The hopes of a nation are with the Spartans that day, as a Michigan State victory would give Notre Dame one of the critical four losses needed to assure they don't get another undeserved BCS bowl bid.

As far as our game last season with the Spartans, I felt it was another missed opportunity. The defense played well and prevented Ringer from going totally nuts, but our offense failed to do anything until a final 98 yard drive that prevented a shutout. We had a good game plan, but one mistake (Siller's awful pick six) pretty much ruined any chance of a victory.

Michigan State offense:

Michigan State must find a way to replace Javon Ringer. Ringer had a monster season, rushing an astounding 390 times for 1,637 yards and 22 TD's. For good measure, he added 28 receptions for another 190 yards and even returned 11 kicks for 224 yards. He outscored the kicker, which is rare, and accounted for more than a third of Michigan State's total yardage gained on the season. Andre Anderson was second on the team in rushing attempts and yards with only 26 carries for 97 yards. Hoyer and Ashton Leggett are the only other players that had a rushing touchdown, each scoring once. Glenn Winston, who was recently released from jail, has now been reinstated as well.

How do you replace a guy that touches the ball on 429 different plays? Anderson, now a sophomore, is first in line to be the starter at tailback. Most likely, however, they will try to replace the yards by committee. A.J. Jimmerson and Leggett will also be contributors as Michigan State looks, at this early stage, to have the same running back-by-committee approach that we will have. They also have a star running back recruit that is a bit of a wild card like our own Al-Terek McBurse. Edwin Baker was one of the best high school running backs in the country last season. He is 5'10", 205 and already has enough size to make an early impression.

The quarterback battle is another key area for Michigan State. Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol appear to be dead even for the starting job at the moment, and both could play significant minutes. Nichol sat out last season after transferring from Oklahoma, while Cousins saw a decent amount of action as Hoyer's backup. Cousins' 32 completions on 43 attempts gave him a very high percentage. He ended up with 310 yards passing and two touchdowns against one interception. That in-game experience may give him a very slight edge for now.

Many of the top receivers return from a unit that was very balanced. Blair White (49-659-1) had the most receptions, but tight end Charlie Gantt (19-304-4) was the leader in touchdowns. Michigan State was not afraid to go to Gantt in short yardage situations or at the goal line. Gantt actually had the longest reception of the season for Michigan State with an 82 yard catch and run. B.J. Cunningham (41-528-0) will be the main #2 receiver, while Mark Dell (36-679-3) led the team in receiving yards. This is an experienced receiving unit that should help the growth of either Cousins or Nichol.

The Spartans must replace the entire right side of their offensive line, which was possibly the best part of the line. Rocco Cironi at 6'6" 308 is the anchor at left tackle, and he is an excellent run blocker. This line will likely excel at run blocking once again as the passing game gets used to a new quarterback. Of course, this late in the season Michigan State should be together and will likely be playing much better than at the beginning. Joel Foreman and Joel Nitchman provide stability as returning starters at left guard and center, respectively.

Michigan State defense:

It is no surprise that Michigan State's defense continues to get better, as Mark Dantonio is a defense-first style of coach. This year, the Spartans return eight starters from a unit that got better, but still struggled against the really good teams on its schedule. Cal, Penn State, and Ohio State scored seemingly at will on the Spartans, but this unit did play a respectable game against Georgia in the bowl game.

One of the biggest losses on defense was safety Otis Wiley. Wiley delivered a hit on Kory Sheets in the 2007 game that led to a fumble return for a touchdown that sealed the game for MSU. Junior Marcus Hyde is the leading candidate to replace him after registering 31 tackles and an interception in reserve action. Johnny Adams could see the field at cornerback, and he already has hurt us. It was his pick six just before halftime in last year's game that virtually sealed that loss. Unfortunately for him, Ross Weaver and Chris Rucker already have the starting spots nailed down. Danny Fortener will man the other safety spot, giving Michigan State one of the most experienced secondaries in the Big Ten. The group managed 14 interceptions last year, but four came from Wiley.

Linebacker Greg Jones is probably the player to watch on the defense. He led the team in tackles and tackles for loss last year, registering 127 stops and 14 behind the line of scrimmage. He is excellent against the run and could be one of the top linebackers in the nation. Eric Gordon and Brandon Denson will play the outside spots, though Denson is a bit undersized by Big Ten standards. Gordon was second on the team with 85 tackles and added three sacks in 2008. This unit is not afraid to blitz the quarterback, making pass protection difficult.

Senior defensive end Trevor Anderson has been with Dantonio since his time at Cincinnati. He had 8 sacks a year ago, but three came against Michigan. He tends to play in streaks, so he will either have a monster game or all but disappear against us. Colin Neely is the newcomer to the defensive line at the other end position. He and tackle Kevin Pickleman are undersized, but will be sued more as pass rusher than run stoppers. That's to be expected as good as MSU's linebackers are. Oren Wilson is a true sophomore, but he started every game at tackle as a freshman last year.

Michigan State Special Teams:

Brett Swenson makes sure that the Spartans get points any time they get near the end zone. He was 22 of 28 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. He has made 52 career field goals in his time in East Lansing, making him one of the Big Ten's most proficient kickers. Aaron Bates also returns as a solid punter, averaging 42 yards per boot. The punt coverage wasn't great, however, as teams averaged 10 yards per return and MSU did give up a touchdown.

The kickoff return game struggled mightily, not even averaging 20 yards per return. It should be a lively competition to see who gets the starting job here, but A.J. Jimmerson is the leading candidate. With Wiley gone, Michigan State also must find a new punt returner.

Intangibles:

It is senior day for us, so that has to be worth something. Unfortunately, we are getting Michigan State at the end of the season instead of the beginning. By this point, both the quarterback and running back derbies should be settled. The defense will likely play at a very high level all season long. All they need is an offense that can go out and give them 20-25 points per game. With no Ohio State on the schedule, it is possible that the Spartans will be a week away from a very big home game against Penn State for the Big Ten title. If they are looking ahead it will be beneficial to us, but I doubt they will be looking ahead.

Still, I don't think this is a daunting team. Last year they were good and just beat up on a mediocre league. They are in the same position to do so this year. Our game in East Lansing was hardly a dominating blowout. Our mistakes gave MSU more than enough to win. We handed them seven points and generated virtually nothing on offense because of dropped passes. This has been a wild series since 1997 where the best team hasn't necessarily won every game. That was true of our surprising upset in 1999 as it was of Michigan State's in 2000.

I hate myself for leaving this game early

Game Outlook:

Again, I don't like that this game is at the end of the year. Michigan State is too solid of a team and could have too much to play for. Look at some of our recent wins over them. In 1997 and 1998 we won because of their mistakes late in games they dominated. Our last win in the series in 2006 came about because of a late interception that set up Casey Welch's late field goal. When we have won it has been because the Spartans screwed up. If they play a mistake free game we lose. I see that happening again here.

Prediction:

We had better five wins at this point, because if we're counting on this one as #5 I think we will be in for a long wait. I still think Indiana is our ace in the hole for getting win #6 and the bowl bid that comes with it. Beating Michigan State would be nice, but they simply are better and more experienced than us right now. I think we lose a close one at home where their maturity comes through. Michigan State 24, Purdue 21

The Great College Football Debate: The Michigan State Spartans

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:09:21 -0000

With Michigan Football just weeks away, the guys at Maize n Brew are getting a little antsy for the season to start. The only way around it? Argue about football. Argue a lot. Each of us have already gone through Michigan's 2009 Football Schedule with a ~~fine tooth comb~~ a single half-assed glance and come out with completely different opinions on games, wins, losses, and season outcomes. Take a look for yourself, here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's predictions.

With the exception of Delaware State, every game is a bone of contention between us. Michigan State? You bet your ass. None of us can agree on it. So rather than duel it out with pistols at dawn or get our brawl on, fight club style, we engage in The Great College Football Debate. Five to six questions on the team in question. Five to six ~~in-depth~~ ~~half-ass~~ mediocre answers. You get content, we get to look like complete and total ~~idiots~~ geniuses in a few months. Sounds like a plan to us. We've already held The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State, so now it's time to take a look at the fightin' Dantonios of Michigan State.

So, without further ado:

The Great Debate: The Michigan St. Spartans

1) Ringer: gone; Hoyer: gone. What's a realistic expectation of this offense that replaces a work horse running back and a marginal quarterback?

SCM: Several previews I've read on MSU seem to use the logic that unproven/inexperienced talent will be able to fill in any of the gaps losing Hoyer and Ringer have left. Never mind that Ringer tallied 390 carries last year... and we thought we rode Mike Hart hard in '06 (318 carries)??? Without a Clydesdale like Ringer to carry the offense or an experienced QB to lean on, I'm not sure exactly what Dantonio is going to do. Hoyer might have indeed been marginal, but replacing a senior QB is replacing a senior QB. Dantonio clearly is out of the Tressel-ball mold, but without a known commodity (at least early on) to move the sticks and burn the clock, will he have to open up the offense a bit? Methinks so. I think State will be nothing more than "meh" on offense, they do return 7 starters from the 8th ranked O in the league last season (IIRC), but if they continually put an excellent defense in bad situations while trying to find their "spark", it's going to burn them. MSU was fortunate to end up with the record they did last year despite being outgained by their opponents on average. Counting on the defense to let the offense catch-up-to-speed without any consequences is... well it's a mistake in logic I made leading up to last season.

390 carries of this. Photo via pennlive.com

Maize n Brew Dave: I think the expectations for this offense need to toned down just based on the departures on the offensive line. MSU lost two starting linemen who combined for 26 starts last year. And it's not like last year's line was overpowering anyone to begin with. Ringer carried the ball 390 times but only rushed for a 4.2 average and 1637 or so yards. That's notsogood when you consider Shonn Green had 307 carries and rushed for more than 200 extra yards. Hell, Jahvid Best at Cal rushed for 1580 on 194 carries. Almost TWO HUNDRED fewer carries than Ringer. In the Big East, Donald Brown of Connecticut rushed for 2083 yards on 367 carries. What I'm getting at is that it seems no one had more carries and did less with them than Michigan State's offensive line. Face it, the only rusher in the NCAA's top 75 in yards per game with a lower yards per carry average was Josh Nesbitt of Georgia Tech. Why does that sound weird? Because Nesbitt's a Quarterback!

If Dantonio runs the same offense he did last year there's no way in hell MSU is able to replicate its offensive success this year. Ringer was a special player, seemingly solely based on his ability to run into a brick wall time after time and not get injured. To expect that kind of durability year after year from any group of running backs, let alone one back, is absurd. The ground game is going to take a big step back. That said, I'm not willing to write off the passing game. Brian Hoyer was "competent" the same way Anthony Morrelli was (i.e., not that good).

Smile Cousins! via SBnation.com

Personally I think Cousins or Nichol (who was a 4 star Oklahoma commit) will be better than Hoyer from the first snap. Cousins has some game experience. Nichol has the big arm. And both of them have outstanding receivers to throw to. I think you'll see dramatic improvement out of the offense in the passing game which should soften the decline of the running game. All things considered, this should still be an Offense in that 6-8th range in the Big Ten. More big plays by the receivers but much fewer on the ground.

Beauford Bixel: This is one of those looming question marks with fangs that every fan dreads. As loath as I am to focus solely on the skill positions, replacing an all-Big Ten running back and a senior quarterback is never easy. Waiting in line behind Hoyer are, however, two quarterbacks who were at least somewhat highly touted and don't possess the "true freshman" status that sent Michigan into a Sparty-No!-esque tailspin last year. Keith Nichol was a 4-star out of Michigan who originally committed to Oklahoma before realizing he was buried on the depth chart. He transfered back to State, and ran the scout team last year while sitting out per NCAA rules. Kirk Cousins, another in-state product, enters the spring as the tentative starter having spent two years in the MSU system, although he was a 2-star to Scout with a smattering of MAC level offerings. Cousins does, however, possess a winning smile.

Replacing a senior quarterback is never good, but both of these options > Walk-on.

Andre Anderson appears to be the starting running back, but nobody is going to replace Javon Ringer's 390 carries on their own. State will likley employ a bevy of running backs to try to match Ringer's production. Anderson - another 2-star - is built to break big plays, and containing him will be a priority.

More of The Great Debate: the Michigan State Spartans after the jump....

2) D'Antonio has been a bit...gruff...when it comes to how he speaks and deals with Michigan. Adding fire to the rivalry? Or just being a dick?

SCM: Without sugar coating it, he's a dick. He handled the whole Mike Hart "little brother" thing like a petulant child and hasn't done anything to reverse that image since. State fans being comprised mostly of petulant children with raging inferiority complexes, I'm sure they love it. I would be willing to bet he also throws an "sc" in front of "UM" every time he mentions the school in correspondence. In a roundabout way he's added fire to the rivalry just in the aspect that he is an ass and it's certainly more fun to beat someone who's going to give you press conference gold afterward.

MnB Dave: Dantonio strikes me as a bit of a Mike Keenan, if you'll forgive crossing sports and the professional/amateur distinction. He's a harsh disciplinarian. He doesn't tolerate any BS. He's a good tactician. And he's pressed every right button to motivate his team and fan base over the last two years. He's not a particularly friendly guy to an outsider, but outsiders don't matter to him. What's important is his team. His school. And he knows that the most important thing to his school and his team is to beat Michigan consistently. As Michigan fans, we're not used to the backtalk coming from East Lansing. It's been a while since the Spartans have been a legitimate threat on the football field. So the constant white noise emitting from the Spartan fanbase has been easy to ignore. But Dantonio, to his credit, realizes that the fan base is insanely tired of the "we'll get ‘em next year" mentality of program since Saban left. And the only way you change that mentality is with a little bit of force from the top. So, yeah, maybe Dantonio's being a little bit of a dick, but that's what he has to be to bring MSU back to relevance in the Big Ten and national picture. And to do that, he's got to take Michigan down.

BB: I will cop to writing this question solely to get a response from SCM, which he provided with aplomb. I do think that D'Antonio is rather prickish when it comes to Michigan, and I think his comments about Mike Hart's height were completely bush league, but uh, yeah Hart did have a mouth on him too, so there's that.

3) Greg Jones remains one of my favorite players in the Big Ten. His defense returns a ton of starters. What's your primary concern vis a vis our offense vs. their defense?

Greg Jones taking in the Citrus Bowl from field level. Photo via Collegefootballfansite.com

SCM: In the conference, MSU ranked 8th in total D and rushing D along with a 6th in pass D last season. So, uh, why exactly all of the hyperbole about the D heading into this season? Sure Greg Jones is talented, I have no qualms there. Yes they return 8 starters, but outside of the LBs, what scares you on that defense? My primary concern is making sure that we open up the middle of the field early on to get the rushing game going and prevent the Spartan D from simply throwing the kitchen sink at Forcier.

MnB Dave: Other than the linebackers, honestly, there's no one on the Spartan defense that really scares me. Oren Wilson at DT is good, but not spectacular. The same can be said for Trevor Anderson at DE. It's a decent returning pair, but you're also plugging in two new starters from your special teamers and limited back-ups into that line. What shocks me is that even as bad as Michigan was last year, its run defense was actually better than Michigan States'. Check out the numbers. I think MSU's run defense will improve a bit with the veteran ‘backers in the mix, but it's not a world beating defensive front. On the back end, the Spartans have two veteran corners, but some issues with their returning safeties (injuries, not being that good, etc...). I think deep coverage is going to be an issue this season as well. Bad safeties = nightmares. Trust me. I know this. With Michigan State's question mark next to Wilson, I think you'll see a lot of running away from Wilson and Anderson and towards the less experienced guys. I also think, as good as the linebackers are, you'll see a lot of the slot receiver on roll outs against the safeties. Once those safeties are up at the line, maybe lob some bombs deep. But the first priority is to gain yards against the unproven guys.

BB: The defense last year was good enough to win some ball games, but not quite experienced enough to lean too heavily on. That's why Ringer and Hoyer's ability to keep drives alive were paramount. This year, the defense is going to have to be a rock because this offense is likely to put them in some bad situations. Greg Jones is awesome, and when I look at this defensive unit, I see a lot of speed, which could make the read-option a non-option. They look to me to be a bit undersized (only one defensive lineman approaches 300 lbs, and sophomore DT Kevin Pickelman is 255 lbs.), and could be subjected to MINOR RAGE.

4) Given the track record for games played @ MSU, lay down some odds for what freaky occurrence will happen this year.

SCM: By freaky occurrence do you mean "cheating" ('01) or "horrifyingly blatant bad call" (Henne's "fumble" in '05)? Given the continuation of officials' inability to properly call a football game in this series (see Brandon Minor's "TD" last year) I think it's even money that something rage-inducing happens this year as well.

MnB Dave: Even money. You can't have a Michigan/Michigan State game without a referee doing something that makes pull your hair our.

BB: The absolutely horrendous officiating in this game has gone back and forth over the years, what with the "million-year second," the "forward pass fumble," and last year's "Minor-Pylon-TD." My guess is that a paraglider drops onto the field to disrupt play. Wait, that's already happened?

Anyway, it will be scored a touchdown for Purdue, who won't be involved in this game.

5) A lot of talk has been made of MSU snapping up in-state recruits. Address this.

SCM: I am not really concerned, I haven't seen many instances where U of M and MSU have been vying for the same coveted guy yet. Rodriguez gave perhaps the best quote on this topic: "To judge on that and give a perception that one school is dominating the state ... I don't know how much validity there is to that. I know the last couple years, the recruiting classes we've got what we've felt are the best players in the state. Our primary focus in recruiting starts in Michigan and expands in other areas of the Midwest and then south." The reporter followed with: "But there seems to be the perception that Michigan State is taking over the state in recruiting" Rodriguez responded "Last I checked, Mike Martin and Will Campbell were playing for Michigan. Depending on your agenda, whoever you talk to, whatever their agenda is will lead the conversation. I feel pretty good about our reputation in state." Huzzah. In other words, we've gotten the guys we've wanted to get out of the state of Michigan.

MnB Dave: Not that big a deal. Sure you'd like to nab all the top talent in-state every year, but that doesn't happen. Oh wait. It does. Anyone trumpeting the OMG MSU OWNZ0RS INSTATE!!1!!!1 isn't paying that much attention to who's being recruited. In the 2009 class, lessee... Michigan took the top player. Same in 2008. Same in 2007. It'll be the same in 2010 because Devin Gardner is pretty much a lock to be ranked as the top dual threat QB in the country. If there's an issue, MSU is snapping up a lot of guys to starter in East Lansing who would usually be depth guys at Michigan. That'll be something that needs to be addressed if Michigan's national presence doesn't allow them to recruit depth from across the country. Wait... it does? Never mind then.

It's not an issue.

BB: The bottom line here is that MSU has always grabbed some in-state recruits. Notice both their quarterbacks are in-state products, one a 4 star who committed to powerhouse Oklahoma before transfering. Michigan has, however, been able to nab the tippy-top talent from in-state while continuing to focus more on Florida and Texas. Campbell, Gardner, White, Martin - these are all players who have committed to Rodriguez during his tenure at Michigan. We'll always lose out on a Gholston every now and again (he appears to be headed to MSU, at any rate), but by and large, the tizzy about Michigan losing in-state recruits has been mostly fabricated by shaudenfraud-filled fans of opposing schools.

(If you're looking for other break downs, check out The Great College Football Debate on Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State)

An Almost Timely Early Look at the 2009 Schedule - Week 9 vs. Michigan State

JG2112 — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:00:16 -0000

More photos » by David Banks - AP

Why must you be, such an angry old man?

Browse more photos »

Previously: Syracuse, The Air Force Academy, California, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn State, ~~Ohio State~~.

Michigan State: At a glance:

Location: East Lansing, Michigan

Stadium: Spartan Stadium (size: 75,005)
Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.
Undergraduate population: 36,337.
First season: 1896
Number of Big Ten Titles: 9 6
All-time record: 592-403-44
All-time bowl record: 7-11.

Most awesome alum: undoubtedly John C. Holmes, who .... oh wait, that's not him? Oh.

Well, then I guess it's a close race between Jimmy Hoffa and honorary alum Robert Mugabe. Yes, the Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe was once in possession of a Michigan State honorary degree (alas, it was revoked in 2008).

Most awesome Michigan State fan site: The Only Colors. Runner-up: Spartan Tailgate.

The Quad has Sparty as preseason # 31.

Jump with me.....

The Big Ten Network could care less if you have kids if you're a Gopher or Spartan fan. This game is slated for a 7:00 CST start on Halloween, which means 4 second row tickets in section 109 may go unused at the Vault, and instead of going overboard on beer at ~~TCF~~ Stub N Herb's, I'll load up on Sweet Tarts and Dubble Bubble. Thanks alot BTN - I may go trick or treating as Gerry DiNardo (XFL edition, of course) and scare all the neighborhood kids.

This will be Minnesota's first game against Michigan's agricultural school since 2006, when Minnesota won 31-18 in East Lansing. The teams' last meeting at Metrodump was in 2005, when Amir Pinnix rushed for 206 yards in a 41-18 victory. Of course, you can't talk 2005 Michigan State football without talking about John L. Smith and the bumbling coaches.

Times are changing, of course, and the dour, unhappy elephant Mark Dantonio is now the coach. He has instilled discipline, technique, and resolve to a team that found the second-half meltdown to be a rite of passage as the year got colder (something Coach Brewster has yet to solve for the Gophers). Last year, State went 9-4, losing to Cal, Ohio State, Penn State and Georgia. Most notably, Michigan State beat Michigan for the first time in 9 years (Plaxico?) and for the first time at Michigan Stadium since 1990.

While State has a number of pieces in place, there are a few significant questions marks that need to be solved and of course, they start with:

Michigan State on Offense: Brian Hoyer was the two-year starter and has now departed. Think of him as Bryan Cupito, and you'll realize how little he did or was noticed, and how his departure didn't even cause shoulders to shrug in central Michigan. This year has seen Oklahoma transfer (this guy couldn't beat out Sam Bradford at QB? FAIL) Keith Nicol and Kirk Cousins battle for the starting job. The position remains open as fall camp approaches.

Ever heard of Javon Ringer? If you watched every snap of every Michigan State game last year, you would have heard his name called 418 times, 390 of those on rushing plays. He's now backing up Chris Johnson and the tequila-free LenDale White in Tennessee, and leaves a significant hole in the MSU backfield. The returning rushers should be rather fresh as they only received 7% of the rushes. Andre Anderson, who got 26 of those in 2008, probably is first-string at this point, though incoming freshmen Edwin Baker and Larry Caple will probably get significant time as well.

State returns all but one of their top 9 wideouts and tight ends, including Blair White, BJ Cunningham, Mark Dell, each of whom had over 35 receptions last year, and TE Charlie Gantt.

Finally, on the O-line, State loses multi-year starters Roland Martin and Jesse Miller on the right side of their line, and will probably fill those spots with seniors Brendan Moss and John Stipek. The other three positions will probably be filled by Rocco Cironi, Joel Foreman, and Joel Nitchman.

Bottom Line: Michigan State's Offense: Think Ohio State. Think Iowa. Michigan State runs a conventional pro-style offense focusing upon the run game first, field position, conservative play-calling and play-action. The Spartans will be breaking in a new quarterback and new running backs the first part of the season, which could lead to problems when they play, say, Notre Dame. However, they should be aided by a strong defense that will give them good field position. By the time of the Minnesota game, the offense should be good for 23 points or so.

Michigan State's Defense: The defense is very solid, returning 8 starters. Dantonio's defensive focus (he was Ohio State's defensive coordinator when they won the 2003 BCS championship) has solidified what had been a porous unit in the past for the Green and White.

On the defensive line, MSU loses two starters, Long and Kershaw, but the best one, Trevor Anderson, returns. He had 30 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 8 sacks in 2008.

As for linebackers, all 3 starters return, but look for junior Greg Jones, the pre-season Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. He had 127 tackles in 2008, calls the defenses and is almost unblockable. Also returning are the other two starters, Eric Gordon and (in a weird way, a meld of the Gophers' offensive attack) Adam Decker. Behind the returning starters is incoming freshman Chris Norman. This is probably the strongest part of the entire team. It will be important for Stommes, Wills and the other Gophers linemen to get releases from the defensive line and attempt to put a block on these linebackers - otherwise, the Gophers' rushing attack is going to get stalled due to the Spartans' stellar linebacking play.

The defensive backfield is also deep and talented, and in comparison to the Gophers, runs eight deep. Starting S Otis Wiley has departed, but Chris L. Rucker, Jeremy Ware, Marcus Hyde, and Dan Fortener return.

Bottom Line: Michigan State's Defense: State's defense is experienced, stout, and disciplined. If the Gophers' rushing game expects to have any success, it needs to put blocks on those solid Spartan linebackers. MSU also seems to have enough quality defensive backs to be able to deal with a 4 or 5 WR look should the Gophers choose to attack through the air. Finally, if the Gophers attempt to use MarQueis Gray in a WildRodent formation, well, he'll have to shed Greg Jones. I fear this is a match-up that the redshirt freshman QB will have difficulty with.

Michigan State on Special Teams: Both specialists return. Brett Swenson does the kicking, has a long of 50 yards, and is used to kicking in the cold and at night. The punter, Aaron Bates, punted 71 times in 2008, averaging over 41 ypk. Importantly, Michigan State is deep at wide receiver and at defensive back, meaning that some quality wide men will be on the kickoff and return teams. This unit I feel will be better than, say, Penn State's, and they may have the experience to stop Troy Stoudermire from having a big day.

Bottom Line: What to Expect: These are the kind of games that Minnesota is going to have trouble with: a well-drilled, disciplined team which plays the field position and punting game. Obviously, Minnesota is trying to move to this style of offense, but in year one, at game nine, they may not be there yet. Further, this is a serious trap game. The Gophers will be returning home after games at Ohio State and Penn State. It's Halloween night, so the players may be thinking ahead to the parties that evening (Sparty will be flying home and won't have that issue). The high-powered Illinois offense is at TCF seven days later. Michigan State may be an afterthought, as silly as that may seem for a team ranked third in the preseason prognostication for the Big Ten.

Looking at this game on August 5th, there are two keys for the Gophers to have success against the Spartans: (1) score early and force Michigan State to play catch-up; and (2) minimize Greg Jones's influence on the game. If they can do either of these things, the game stays close. If they do both, the chance of winning is very good.

However, I don't see it happening. The Spartans have the depth, experience and guile to combat the Gophers' offense, and it will have just enough offense to get the points it needs. The Agricultural School of Michigan will win its first trip to the Vault.

Michigan State 23

Minnesota 20

Poll

What will be the outcome of the Michigan State at Minnesota game on Halloween night, October 31st, 2009?

Michigan State - big victory

48 votes

Michigan State - squeaker

41 votes

Minnesota - overwhelming victory

18 votes

Minnesota - last second field goal, let's go to Sally's

65 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed