SB Nation - Brian Brohm

Q & A with Card Chronicle

JazzyUte — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:20:14 -0000

As the Utes ready for the Cardinals, I had the opportunity to ask Mike over at Card Chronicle some questions about the upcoming game and their program. You can read my answers to his questions here.

Hopefully this will give you a feel of what to expect Saturday.

Block U: Steve Kragthorpe entered the season on the hot seat. Has anything changed two games into the season?

Card Chronicle: Not really. Louisville looked awful against probably the worst program in all of college football (Indiana State) and then Kragthorpe dropped to 0-3 against Kentucky, in the process producing the program's first three-game losing streak to its arch-rival since the series renewed in 1994.

He has to be competetive in the Big East and take this team to a bowl game to win back even a small portion of the fan base.

Block U: Do you feel better about the Cardinals' prospects after their comeback loss to rival Kentucky?

Card Chronicle: I do. Admittedly, I thought the game was going to get ugly but Louisville played as inspired a four quarters as they have in the Kragthorpe era and really should have come away with a victory against a team that appears a lot stronger than they do on paper. Quarterback Justin Burke looked light years ahead of where he was in the season-opener, and Victor Anderson showed again that he's worthy of the hype surrounding him.

The biggest issue now is how will this group bounce back from such a deflating loss. These guys have been through a lot over the last couple of seasons, and a win against an arch-rival that was supposed to beat them by two touchdowns would have been enormous. After the game a lot of the players were very emotional and it made you wonder how they were going to be able to regroup after coming up just short in a game they'd put so much emphasis on winning.

Block U: There has been a great deal of change on the offensive side of the ball since Utah and the Cardinals met last season. Can you go into a bit of detail about what has changed (and I'm not just talking players, but if the offense has changed its philosophy since 2007).

Card Chronicle: Well, pretty much everything besides the head coach has changed. The program has lost its hype, gone from Big East powerhouse to doormat, and about 85% of the talk amongst the fan base on any given day surrounds the topic of who the next Louisville coach should be.

Kragthorpe has had a new offensive and defensive coordinator in each of his three seasons. This year he brought in former Utah State head coach Brent Guy to lead the defense while promoting himself to offensive coordinator.

With Brian Brohm gone and Victor Anderson now roaming the backfield, the strength of this team lies in its rushing attack. Anderson was the Big East's Rookie of the Year in 2008, and is off to another great start in his sophomore campaign. U of L is still deep in its receiving corps, but the offensive line isn't nearly as strong as it was in 2007 or 2008. The defense is very much the same, and that's not good.

Block U: Who do you think is the biggest offensive threat this year?

Card Chronicle: It's Anderson. The kid's the real deal.

Block U: Two years ago, the Cardinal defense was abysmal and the Utes had no problem moving the ball on them. Has that changed?

Card Chronicle: The defense showed signs of improvement under Ron English last season, and really didn't play that poorly against Kentucky a week ago. The defensive line has some talent, but they produced zero pressure on UK quarterback Mike Hartline. The strength of the unit lies with its linebackers who are fast and experienced. The secondary outside of cornerback Johnny Patrick is a sore spot once again.

Block U: What type of game do you expect?

Card Chronicle: Honestly, I'm having a hard time putting my finger on it. If the Louisville players come into the game with the same mindset they had against Kentucky, I really think the Cards have a shot to spring the upset. If not, well, then I think a lot of people here are going to be happy that they don't have the CBS College Sports channel.

I can't really see either team taking a lot of big chances, so I don't to see anywhere near the offensive showcase we saw two years ago. Turnovers and time of possession will likely dictate the victor.

Block U: How many wins does Kragthorpe need to save his ass?

Card Chronicle: Six or seven, whichever gets U of L into a bowl. That probably saves his job, but it won't necessarily get him back in the good graces of the fan base. Block U: How do Cardinal fans perceive the Utah program?

Block U: How do Cardinal fans perceive the Utah program?

Card Chronicle: Well, I can't speak for everyone but I have a great deal of respect for what Utah has been able to accomplish over the last decade or so. Regardless of where you're playing or who you're playing, two unbeaten seasons in such a short period of time is a remarkable accomplishment. When I hear "Utah Utes," I no longer think Rick Majerus and Keith Van Horn, I think football, which is a testament to just how amazing it is what Meyer and Whittingham have done there.

Block U: Is Bobby Petrino a bad word in Louisville?

Card Chronicle: Not at all. The complete and sudden collapse of the program following his departure was the best thing that could have happened for his Louisville legacy.

Block U: Predict the final score.

Card Chronicle: I really think Louisville can keep it close, but I just can't see them coming home with a W.

Utah 27, Louisville 21

Three for your Wednesday morning

Mike Rutherford — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 13:37:24 -0000

1. It has been confirmed that Shabaka Lands, the former high school assistant coach of top U of L recruit Marquis Teague, has been hired by Louisville under the title of "Special Assistant to the Coach."

There's nothing illegal about this, and strategically speaking it's probably a great move for a program that desperately needs a positive story and a big-time commitment, but that doesn't mean it isn't shady and kind of gross.

It's impossible to ignore that this stuff goes on just about everywhere, but it's the reason why I don't think I could ever be too cose to the game - regardless of how much it means to me - in any capacity. Just don't have the stomach for it. I'm too sweet for Rock and Roll.

If anyone else has a pertinent Almost Famous quote handy then by all means throw it out there. Apparently it's all we're doing here this week.

2. Eric Crawford lays out both his readers' and his own list of what it's going to take to satisfy the Cardinal fan base in year three of the Steve Kragthorpe era.

It's a fair, if not comprehensive, list, but I can't say I'm with Eric on his first requirement: "At least five wins, with no embarrassing losses."

Five wins shouldn't be enough to prolong the tenure of a head coach who hasn't tasted the postseason at a program which hadn't missed it in the nine years prior to his arrival. There's no telling what Tom Jurich's list looks like, or even if he has a list, but it should be bowl or bust for Kragthorpe in '09.

3. A very interesting story out of Fayetteville, where it appears the Brohm family was instrumental in convincing former Michigan quarterback Ryan Mallett to come to Arkansas and play for Bobby Petrino.

One name that kept coming up during her son's visit to Arkansas' campus was Brian Brohm, the former Louisville quarterback whom Petrino groomed. Mallett's mother jumped at a chance to find out more about Petrino.

"Debbie said, 'Well, can I talk to Brian Brohm's parents about his situation playing for you?'" Mallett's father said. "And coach Petrino was the one that gave us the phone number."

Debbie Mallett called Brohm's parents and the praise they had for Petrino sold her on the idea of her son playing for the Razorbacks. And it didn't take long for her son to decide that he wanted to come back to his home state and play for the school he had rooted for as a kid.

And speaking of Brohm (it should be three and-a-half for your Wednesday morning) it appears the biggest opportunity of his short NFL career may very well come tomorrow evening in the Packers' final preseason game.

Previewing 2009 Utah Opponents: Louisville Cardinals

Jeremy Mauss — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:16 -0000

Louisville has not been the same since their Orange Bowl in 2006 and since then have a combined record of 11-13. 2006 happens to be the year Bobby Petrino left the program for the NFL and then Louisville brought in Steve Kragthorpe from Tulsa.

Kragthorpe was to continue the high flying, pass happy scoring offense that he made famous at Tulsa. Instead the team has struggled offensively and has yet to go to a bowl game.

This year seems no different as Louisville is predicted to finish seventh by the preseason mags. The good news about the Big East is that there is no clear cut champion, which means that Louisville could sneak out an extra win or two with all the parity expected for the league.

The offense should be improved with four starters back on the offensive line and eight overall. They do lose quarterback Hunter Cantwell, but the offense will be lead by potential all conference running back Sophomore Victor Anderson and wide receiver Doug Beaumont. Anderson gained just over 1,000 yards and eight scores as a freshman which was good for fifth in the Big East. The running game looks to be the only sure thing for Louisville in 2009, who need all the help they can get.

The quarterback play last year was not great with Hunter Cantwell slinging the ball around. He only averaged 207 yards per game and had 16 touchdowns and intercetpions. The production drop off from 2007 to 2008 was over 1,400 passing yards when Brian Brohm was on campus.

The hope for 2009 comes from NC State transfer Justin Burke who will be a junior entering the season. Burke was a three star recruit and rated the 16th best quarterback in the country coming out of high school in 2006. He did play in three games in 2007 for NC State, but only completed two of three passes for fifteen yards. The hope is for Burke to bring his magic from his Kentucky high school days where he 62 touchdowns as a senior.

The defense was bad last year and ranked seventh in the Big East, and some how defensive coordinator Ron English got the head coaching gig at Eastern Michigan. So, Louisville brings in Utah State head coach reject Brent Guy, and hope he can bring something new to the table.

The only position with strength is the linebackers that return all three starters and the backups, but the rest of the defense is questionable at best. The Cardinals desperately need a pass rush as they were dead last in the Big East with only 14 sacks, and were sixth in takeaways.

The only other good news to be found for Louisville is that of the new starters four of the six are upperclassmen with playing experience, so there is some hope for them. The goal should be to get back to a bowl game, but that is an unlikely scenario and five wins looks to be where Louisville maxes out.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed