SB Nation - Mike Ford

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

The Conversation: Talking USF @ Florida State with TheBullsPen.com

FSUncensored — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:28:37 -0000

This week's guest is TheBullsPen.com. It's a forum, and we've never had a Q&A with a forum before. After reaching out to some USF beat writers, and getting no response, we turned to these guys. Their response was very good. If you're a USF fan finding this on google, you need to get to TheBullsPen.com ans sign up. It's a nice community and they are pretty serious about their football.

Waylon Jennings & Hank Williams Jr - The Conversation (via Slasheri)

There's a story behind the clip. People said we needed to use more youtube clips. I happen to like Waylon and when you type "the conversation" into youtube, this is what you get.

First up, USF's questions to us:

With FSU's revent struggles with mobile QBs how do you think they will deal with USF's type of spread where an athletic QB and his ability to hurt you running or passing is the centerpiece?

I don't think this FSU defense is any good. It's easily the worst in my lifetime (born '85). They rely on a lot of young kids, who mix great plays with boneheaded decisions. There are some encouraging signs, however. First, FSU has an excellent gun-run game, so the defense has now had an entire spring and fall camp to see this look. Second, the defensive interior is bigger, which should help. Third, FSU now has three legit linebackers, as compared to last season which saw FSU scramble and convert two safeties to the linebacker position to make up for some early entries to the NFL and some injuries.

If there is one unit on offense or defense that FSU must contain to beat USF , which would it be? What do you feel will FSU's biggest advantage will be on Saturday, biggest weakness? What are your 3 keys to victory, for both teams?

I'll try to profile this in Friday's preview (it's worth the wait, trust me), but FSU obviously can't just allow any unit to run wild. I'll say the contain game. USF RsFr. QB B.J. Daniels has a big arm, but he can be erratic and lacks touch, so FSU has to make him sit in the pocket and not allow him to scramble around.

FSU's biggest advantage, outside of home field, should be their offensive line. Staying in good down and distance will be key. I also think FSU has an advantage with their 3rd and 4th wideout against USF's 3rd and 4th corner. If USF is going to win this game, they must run the ball very well to get FSU into some more favorable coverages. To that end, USF's offensive line has to play well.

I'll discuss this more in-depth Friday, but USF must establish the run, find play calling balance (not try to do too much or too little as to be predictable), and must sell-out against the run. FSU just needs to run the ball, not try to do too much on offense, and not allow big special teams plays.

How do you stop George Selvie?

Selvie is a good pass rusher. FSU will block him with Sophomore Andrew Datko. Datko was a freshman All-American a season ago and has picked up where he left off. Over summer, I profiled the insane slate he'd face this season. Selvie had a great Sophomore year, but was a disappointment last season, probably because he was injured. Datko has excellent technique and I am not overly worried about this matchup because Selvie doesn't have much of a bull-rush move. Datko can handle a guy who tries to get around the corner every time. He's 6'6" 291, so occasionally he will struggle against an elite defensive end who has a strong bull-rush move to compliment the outside stuff. I also expect FSU to run right at Selvie, because he does not like to play the run from what I have seen.

For more of our responses, to answer a few of their questions, and to see TheBullsPen's excellent answers, continue reading!

I can't think of a more baffling team in the country right now than yours. They've yo-yoed up and down the first three weeks, and I don't think anyone expected them to torch BYU the way they did after their near-death experience with Jacksonville State. Which game that you've played so far, if any, represents the true 2009 Seminoles?

I recently told Andy Staples of SI: you can choose to judge their two games against ranked D1 competition, or you can choose to look at a game they played against Jax State under circumstances that many teams will face this season, just not as extreme as the Noles faced.

After three games, FSU is 118th against the pass in I-A - only UAB and Washington State have given up more yards. Is that an illusion, or are there issues in the back seven that haven't been addressed?

The issues in my mind are along the defensive line, which has played poorly. Considering what has been asked of them, I think the secondary has played okay. FSU has asked its guys to play straight man coverage for 5 or 6 seconds, and nobody can do that (though Patrick Robinson has played very well and pretty much locked down his side, as the top corner in the nation should do.) But you also have to consider who they played. MIami's dynamic offense, BYU's very impressive attack (which by the way, FSU did hold to only 21 points before the Noles pulled their starters). They also faced the top QB recruit in the country and the MVP of the SEC championship game in Ryan Perriloux for Jax State. There's not another team that has faced similar competition to date. There are issues, but that ranking isn't indicative of FSU's performance, because it doesn't adjust for competition level.

- I'm not going to lie, if USF were ever to replace one of the "Big 3" in Florida, many Bulls fans think FSU would be the one getting replaced. With Mickey Andrews saying he wants to retire at the end of the season, and Bowden looking more like a coach emeritus every year, how concerned are you about the long-term health of the program? How much faith does the average FSU fan have in Jimbo Fisher when Bobby finally retires?

I was very concerned in 2004-2007, but FSU has a stadium,, tradition, and now has a plan. They have to deal with one more year of this Bowden nonsense, but I don't think people realize all that goes in to making a program, particularly the booster base, stadium, recruiting, a conference, etc. I think USF has a shot to be the .5 in the Fla 3.5 Everyone inside the program and most knowledgeable outsiders will tell you that losing Andrews and Bowden represents an immeasurable upgrade. Jimbo Fisher saved Florida State at a time when most didn't realize how bad the program was internally, with a lot of behind the scenes stuff that I don't have enough space to describe. The improvements he's made, particularly in recruiting and organization structure, and the improvements he will make in this and next off-season will lay the groundwork for sustained play at the highest level. I understand that many don't think Miami would be replaced, but they don't have a stadium and rumor has it that their booster contributions are way, way down.

It seems like the light bulb clicked on inside Christian Ponder's head this offseason. What improvements has he made from last year to this year that have made him so effective?

I'm going to brag a bit here. Tomahawk Nation was probably the only site not to get on the "Ponder Sux11!!11!1" bangwagon a season ago. Now, we do have some coaches (not FSU's coaches, haha) who write for us, so that helps. We identified the problem of a year ago: the youngest offensive line in America (3 true freshmen, two sophomores), which while good at run blocking, was poor in pass protection. FSU had to scheme around their offensive line, and Fisher rightfully won the ACC offensive coordinator of the year award for delivering the top offense in the conference despite the line. In the off-season, we broke it down and wondered whether the offensive line would take that next leap. We said that they likely would. So far so good, as FSU has the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Ponder looks like a completely new quarterback, the best FSU has had in a decade, and he'll be running the 2nd best offense USF has ever faced (the Oregon team in the Sun Bowl a few years ago was very special).

Are you more or less confident in slowing down USF's offense with B.J. Daniels under center than you would have been if Grothe were playing? Why?

Tough question. Over the summer, I wrote:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

I didn't mean to jinx him, USF fans, honest. I'll split on this. If FSU shreds USF's defense like they did to Miami and BYU, then USF would be better off having Grothe, because I think he is less likely to have a completely embarrassing and career/program scaring meltdown than B.J. Daniels.

But if USF starts to volley with FSU, then I think USF fans should prefer Daniels, a kid with better physical tools, probably just making plays, and gaining confidence as the game goes on.

Many of us are also Bucs fans, and we'd like to thank you all for Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn, among others. Which current Noles do you think we'll all get to know on Sundays in the future? Offensive Tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will play in the league, as will Guard Rodney Hudson. Wide receivers Richard Goodman and Jarmon Fortson will get paid. On defense you'll see DT Jacobbi McDaniel, LB's Dekoda Watson and Nigel Bradham, and definitely CB Patrick Robinson (considered by many to be the top CB in the country).

Finally, here's a few our fans can answer:

- This may be the best-attended road game by USF fans that we've ever had - right up there with the time we took over FAU's little sandbox of a stadium. Any suggestions on what to do (and what not to do) in the parking lots and at the stadium? Maybe some things we wouldn't think of. We all know bad things would happen if someone tried to stop Renegade and Chief Osceola. Does it bother you that Gene Deckerhoff went to UF?

What are your feelings on playing against USF for the first time? What 5 places should USF fans make sure to visit while in Tally?

Now, Tomahawk Nation's questions to USF

In your honest opinion how much of a drop off or rise in play do you see with the redshirt freshman quarterback leading the offense? How much of the offense can he handle? How will this impact playcalling?

Jamie: I hate to say "I don't know" but... I don't know. We can go off of what we've seen in the two games Daniels has played in extensively so far (which were both against I-AA schools) and what everyone within the program says about him. He's faster than Grothe, he has a stronger arm, and everyone says he has the same competitive streak in him - which makes sense, since he played basketball last year in the toughest conference in America. But until you really throw him in the water and see if he can swim or not, you never know for sure. Even if the Bulls lose the game, it will be very encouraging if Daniels still plays well. Grothe won his first-ever road game at UCF, and nearly won his second one at Kansas (the year before they really took off - I was at that game and can still see the winning touchdown pass skimming off Ean Randolph's hands... what a bummer). It only took that long for us to figure out that he had something.

Mike Canales (our offensive coordinator) says they're not going to limit Daniels. I think we're interested in knowing whether Canales has limited himself in the first three games because he didn't want to give FSU a roadmap to stopping the offense. It seems like the offense has been opening up a bit since the Wofford game, but we have no idea how much of the playbook is available at this point.

Jim: While the style hasn't changed much, the offense was new this year even for Grothe. Daniels probably had more reps in the spring and camp cycles to protect Grothe from injuries. (Grothe hurt his hip pointer in Aug 08, so there was some concern). Coach Canales also said that preparation this week would not change.

Daniels is a taller, faster, stronger version of Matt Grothe. He doesn't have Matt's experience, and has not shown the same personality (back up QB's don't usually show the "moxie" when they are in the game for mop-up duty).

The real issue will be how quickly Daniels can adjust to the FSU speed. Sure, he sees a fast defense every day in practice - but practice speed isn't game speed. If he can adjust quickly, we'll be fine.

Data: Really, I don't know. In terms of pure physical talent, Daniels is better. He seems to be very calm and confident in the pocket. Overall, I'd say our big play ability is a little higher. Daniels can just make throws that Grothe wouldn't be able to. We'll have to see whether Daniels is nervous, or just makes mistakes seeing the field against the speed of FSU. I have a feeling the overall dropoff won't be much, but we won't know until Saturday.

Dan: I can't say I truly expect an actual rise yet, because we just don't know, and it's a hell of a game to have your first start in, but I don't expect alot of dropoff. I think BJ Daniels' skillset will help make up for a little bit of the dropoff, if there is any. And the team will be rallying around him and playing their hearts out for Grothe. I think he can handle the whole offense. Playcalling won't be much different, but I still think there are things that both QBs practiced that will be new to everyone, including us.

If you had to point to a place on the timeline of FSU football, where would USF be today?

Jamie: We're probably you guys around 1982. We've come a long way and there are a few skins on the wall, but people are wondering if we're legit or not. You guys won at Ohio State two straight years - we beat West Virginia two straight years when they were in the top 10. We're hoping that we're in a bit of a leveling off period while we wait for the next step up to true elite status.

Jim: It's a bit different. USF is in a conference, and a BCS conference at that. FSU for most of the rise to power was independent - which means USF can't follow the same path. However, I would put USF at about the 1980 FSU timeline.

Data: You'd have to help me out with the years. I would say we are somewhere around the Casey Weldon early years, or maybe a year or two before Weldon took over. The team is at the point where ending the season in the Top 25 should be a reasonable goal.

Does USF have the confidence/talent to play tight man coverage against our secondary, thus taking away the bubble screen? Also, do you think Daniels will be able to stretch our D by consistently hitting the intermediate routes? What kind of designed runs do you anticipate against FSU?

Jim: Joe Tresey is a good DC, and will likely mix up the coverage -- switching from man to zone. USF played mostly a soft zone (like a cover-2 or cover-3) during the first three games. However, the CBs have the speed to keep up with the WR's... and safety Nate Allen is a ball hawk (and potential 2nd-rounder).

Daniels has an accurate and strong arm. If Bogan, Love, Mitchell, and the rest of our WRs can get behind the FSU secondary - then Daniels can hit them.

USF runs a modified spread-option, where the QB decides at the last minute to hand off or run based on the crashing DE (this is the zone-read). USF also has specific plays with a QB run (not just QB draws). Those are probably the most unique running plays. USF has more traditional counter, off-tackle, sweep and up-the-gut runs. I would also expect an end-around or even a reverse.

Data: I'm confused by the first question. If the question is - Do we have the confidence to man against your WRs? Probably. But we have new Defensive D-Coordinators. In past years we definitely would have left our DBacks on an island and put lots of pressure on the backs. We have one NFL quality CB in Jerome Murphy, and some young guys on the other side that seem to be very good but haven't proven it on the field (Q Washington, George Baker, Kayvon Webster). Currently, when we go with a nickel package we'll see two of the three young corners instead of another safety.

Daniels has shown the ability to hit guys in stride 40 yards down the field. From a passing perspective, I expect you'll see us run the same kind of deep passing game that Miami had success with. But we'll also run a lot more 4 and 5 wides, and try spread the field to hit the 10-15 yard pass. We'll run at least 8 different receivers through the game, probably more like 10. The running game hasn't settled on a running back. I think you'll see steady but solid Mo Plancher run your basic off tackle stuff, powerful and speedy Mike Ford pound it up the middle, and lightning quick Lindsey Lamar try to run outside and catch some screen passes. Most of our running is out of the spread, but in short yardage we'll bring in two or three TEs.

Dan: Unsure about the man coverage. Our receivers are pretty big and athletic, and they play as well as they can. Daniels has smarts and I noticed he knows how to take some heat off the ball to fit the ball in the short routes, and still knows how to bomb it with surprisingly great accuracy. Not sure what Canales has up his sleeve for runs, but we are getting more and more stable at RB so I'm sure there will be some interesting things to see.

This weekend, how will your fanbase adapt to a stadium that does not serve alcohol?

Jamie Have you ever been to a game in Tampa and seen the beer prices? Our stadium basically doesn't serve alcohol either. The hardest part for the drinkers is going to be the noon kickoff. The default kickoff time at our home games is 7:00pm, and there's always a lot of kvetching when a game is moved to 12:00pm for the Big East Game of the Week slot because there's just not enough time to get a good buzz on in the parking lot.

Jim: The same way yours does. Drinking in the lot and sneaking some in.

Dan: I could be mistaken but I don't think UCF's stadium served alcohol either (even though it's a wet campus). It'll be just fine, just means people will remember more of the game, and your city will make alot more money off booze sales on Fri night and Sat morning.

Is it possible for the Bulls to have a moral victory? If USF is able to compete with Florida State and keep the game close, can it be considered a step forward for the program?

Jamie: No. Moral victories are for UCF.

Jim: Moral victories are for UCiF. (Named because "if this" or "if that" they would win...) If USF keeps it close and loses, that is a loss. Many fans not only think we can win, but almost expect it. Much like FSU fans thought about Miami on opening weekend.

Data: I don't think there would be terrible disappointment with a close loss. But only a victory would be considered a step forward. This team has already won bigger road games in the recent past against (at Auburn, at West Virginia when they were considered a NC contender). From a recruiting perspective a win over FSU would be huge. From a "We have arrived" perspective, I don't think a win at FSU would top Auburn unless FSU was undeafeated late in the year.

Dan: A moral victory would be winning on a FG or by less than 6 points. A real 'we-have-arrived' victory will be a double digit 'in-your-face' beating.

From a fan's perspective and the program's perspective, which game is more important to the Bulls, FSU or UM?

Jamie: For the fans, I think we're happy if we win one out of the two games this year, just to have that first "Big 3" win under our belt. But for the program, I think this one is more important. This goes back to the question I suggested about how many Bulls fans think FSU is most vulnerable to falling out of the "Big 3" in Florida. Miami is always going to get talent from their own back yard. Florida has national recruiting cachet and can get almost anyone they want. And USF is doing an increasingly good job retaining the talent in Tampa Bay. If the state can't support four BCS conference teams at a high level (note: we don't know this for sure yet) and one school has to take another's place, then FSU seems like the one USF would replace if they could get there. Part of that replacement process includes beating them on the field.

Jim: FSU is more important because we have four more games against UM and only one against FSU. And this is our only scheduled visit to Doak.

Data: About the same. If we go 1-1, I think we'll be happy. The two teams seem very close in talent, and we get UM at home. So I guess that would make the Miami game slightly more important. But a win over FSU would mean the Miami game is less important. If that makes sense.

Dan: They're about 50/50. UM is more important to win, because they beat us last time, and we should win at home. It's too early to know if FSU will be great this year with the rest of their schedule, and we'll know when we face UM how good they truly are. Winning at either will surely help in some way or another.

Vegas is giving USF about a 13% chance of winning this contest. What percent chance do you give yourselves winning this game?

Jamie: Before Grothe got hurt I would have said around 40%. Now I'm down around 25%. But that's about the chance I gave USF to win at Auburn, and we know how that worked out.

Jim: 50-50. Honestly.

Data: My head is telling me about 25% after the Grothe injury. But Daniels is sending out really good vibes. I know BYU is supposed to be good, but they turned the ball over a lot and our speed on defense is a lot better than theirs. My gut is telling me this team is better than the last two years, and has a greater sense of purpose. I'll go 60%.

Dan: With Grothe, I think we had a 50/50 shot at winning. With BJ, I think it may be 40-45%. Know this. This team is ready. We still have a great defense and we have a solid O-line, and our QB isn't a scrub. And we seem to have a legit kicker (you guys know ALL about that wide-right stuff ) Expect everything from us, it's only Wednesday and I bet the team is already on fire tired of hearing all the weak arguments and cheap shots being taken at them because they lost one guy.

A big thanks to TheBullsPen.com

'Nole Your Enemies: South Florida Preview- Will The Bulls' Offense be Offensive in 2009?

FSUncensored — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:34:30 -0000

With only 40 days until the 2009 season starts, it's time to learn about the opponent's on Florida State's schedule. We'll start with the teams Florida State did not play last year, leading off with in-state foe South Florida. Today we're talking offense, tomorrow will be defense and special teams.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BC conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury). It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

via nationalchamps.net

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

If the Bulls lose Grothe, they will probably miss a bowl as there is nobody else on the roster with any experience in a college game. For that reason, I will not profile the backup quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back.

via www.mikefordonline.org

He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

Wide Receiver

Who Left:

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G
Jessie Hester	SR	WR	54	579	10.7	3	4.2	45
Carlton Mitchell	JR	WR	28	405	14.5	1	2.2	31
A.J. Love	JR	WR	30	354	11.8	2	2.3	27
Dontavia Bogan	JR	WR	26	354	13.6	1	2	27
Ben Busbee	SR	TE	7	99	14.1	2	0.5	8
Patrick Richardson	SO	WR	7	68	9.7	0	0.8	8
Trent Pupello	JR	TE	2	26	13.0	0	0.2	3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.

Bottom Line

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.