SB Nation - Tyrone McKenzie

The Preview Part 2: South Florida's Defense v. Florida State's Offense- with Prediction

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:25:04 -0000

So you read my take on USF's offense against Florida State's defense. One slight addendum to that preview. I know some people on the Western Kentucky team that USF beat. Central Arkansas beat Western Kentucky 28-7 IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. They said that Tennessee's offensive line was much better than USF's offensive line, and that USF's offensive line wasn't much better than that of Central Arkansas. Now let's flip the script. The 'Noles have one of the best offenses in the nation. Against Ranked opponents this season, Florida State is averaging over 450 yards and 44 points. They are talented and smooth. I'll do this like I did the previous installment. Breaking down their defense and what FSU will do to attack it. Finally, I'll have a quick look at the special teams and make a prediction.

This summer I wrote:

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense Overall Run Defense Pass Defense

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.
39th

S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link. 38th 10th 78th

S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only 3rd 2nd 6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who could eventually play in the NFL.

.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and it starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

I was pretty accurate here. Let's discuss the changes

Along the defensive line, Pierre Paul is starting at left end. The other starters are of course Selvie, McClain, and Grissom. I haven't been particularly impressed with Grissom and he could be exploited. This is still a talented defensive line, but they haven't played quite as well as I expected. The decision to start Pierre-Paul could make them more stout against the run (he started last game and is expected to start Saturday.) He's a very talented player who wanted to play for FSU but was turned away by the lazy defensive coaching staff. At this point, I don't expect to see DT McClain make 1st team All-Big East, but 2nd team is possible. Harris is the backup to Grissom.

At linebacker, it is exactly the same. I will note two things. First, Jacquian Williams, the backup strong side backer is really quick and plays some rush end on passing downs. He's # 57. Second, these guys like to run around a lot, but for their size, they should be better at taking on and shedding blocks. WKU did a nice job getting them blocked on the 2nd level.

As far as the lack of sacks, well, that hasn't really been remedied. USF has played two horrible D1-AA teams, and WKU, a provisional 1A school in Western Kentucky who lost to Central Arkansas 28-7, AT HOME. This year they have 5 sacks on 72 opponent pass plays, a sack on 6.9% of pass plays faced. That'd be good over a season, but that is ridiculously poor against the people they faced. FSU's offensive line is great in pass protection, having allowed only 4 sacks on 108 pass plays. That's a great % of 3.6. And that was against two nationally ranked teams. USF is going to need someone other than Selvie to step up.

FSU has the most athletic offensive line in the country. They can block USF's front 7. I am pretty confident in that. Now, USF's defensive line is much much better than BYU's so it won't be the complete domination we saw in Provo Utah. Their tackles aren't as good as Miami's but their defensive ends are better. That's fine. I'd much much much much rather play against good ends than good tackles.

Before we talk more strategy, let's have a look at USF's Secondary. Over summer, I wrote:

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

There are some major changes here. The bulls suffered a major injury to promising sophomore safety Jerrell Young (broken arm). As I noted, he was expected to be their top run defender from the secondary. That necessitated some moves. Murphy was such a good tackler that they decided to move him from his Boundary corner spot to strong safety to replace Jerrell Young. He'll be okay there. But other positions are up in the air.

The Bulls are playing more 4-3 and less 4-2-5 this year, and that was a wise decision in the Spring, though they couldn't have done it in anticipation of Young's injury. It was just preference. The corner positions will be filled with Freshman Webster, Baker, and sophomore Washington (who has been injured with an ankle but is expected back. Butler is also in the mix. Interestingly, when they go to their nickel look, they will put Murphy at Nickel corner and then insert promising redshirt frosh John Lejiste in Murphy's vacated strong safety spot. I am not impressed with the corners for USF- they are both freshmen, but the safety tandem is impressive.

As much as I would like to see FSU spread out the Bulls, I really don't expect them to. I would like to match FSU's 3rd and 4th wideout against 3 redshirt or true freshmen corners for USF. But I don't think it will happen. QB Christian Ponder is in a knee brace and multiple commenter's have noted that he has been limping around campus all week. I have to be honest here- Early this week, I expected E.J. Manuel to start. Ponder's legs are a big part of his game and the Noles offense, but he is also an excellent passer. Everyone expects FSU to shoot Ponder up and start him. There won't be a lot of 4-wide, because Ponder likes to run out of that set so often. He is under strict orders not to run, but the guy will be so amped when they shoot him up, and it's his nature to run. I hope he can avoid further injury.

Also note: he banged up the knee in the 2nd quarter against BYU. It wasn't the result of him being in with a 24 point lead.

What I do expect to see is more like the Denver Broncos or USC. Under center, with 1RB, 1TE, and 3WR's, or 2TE, 2WR's. I really don't want to see a lot of I-Formation. Using the two-tight end set could cause USF some serious problems. Selvie likes to play very wide, and the tight end to his side could force him to make difficult choices.

FSU can run out of both the sets I mentioned. They can also use some 3WR 1TE 1RB Shotgun. WIth the 3WR look, the Bubble Screen option will be available should USF decide not to account for the slot receiver. Here's an example, see the yellow circle to indicate the empty space.

Their linebacker must account for the slot receiver if they stay in their 4-3 base defense. If they get out of that 4-3 base defense, FSU will rip them over and over again with the run. The key will be for their linebacker to split the difference, that is, play far enough out to discourage FSU from throwing the bubble, but not too far as to take himself out of position against the run.

I like FSU to come out and establish the run. It should work. However, because USF's defense is decent, they will probably get some tackles for loss. FSU won't be able to stay out of long down and distance situations the entire game. They will continue to control the ball and keep the defense off the field, however.

While USF has not shown to be a blitz heavy team this season, their DC does have that tendency and FSU needs to be aware of that (they are). I anticipate USF getting frustrated against the run and doing several thigns against which FSU should be able to take advantage. First, they will probably send some run blitzes (different from pass blitzes). To counteract this, look for FSU to bring back the screens over the middle to Fortson and Goodman. These middle screens are highly effective because FSU's offensive line is so athletic, allowing them to block faster players in the open field. Someone once said that the only new thing in football in the past 30 years is the middle screen, as it basically allows the offense to run a kickoff return from scrimmage.

The other thing they will do is stack the box. Murphy (strong safety, but a converted corner) will come up into the box, particularly against the 2TE formations. They will play Allen (free safety) very deep when they do this. While putting more men in the box is effective for stopping the run, it also has a disadvantage: long runs. The reason for this is simply geometry. A player closer to the line doesn't have the angle to catch a player if he breaks a run. He also has less reaction time. If anyone watches the SEA@SF game last weekend, you saw Frank Gore break two 80+ yard runs against the Seahawk defense because he cleared the first wave of defenders and had only one safety to beat, not two, because Seattle played 8 and sometimes even NINE! men in the box.

Additionally, I look for more play-action this week. Getting the ball out of Ponder's hands will be important, because we don't want him taking shots, but another way is to use play-action to make the defense think run before they start rushing the passer. That could put USF in a bind. Their corners are 5'11", 5'11", and 5'10". Everyone lies in media guides, so I am guessing at least one of those kids is really 5'9". Jarmon Fortson is a legit 6'3" and is a beast for a freshman to handle. If FSU can freeze USF on play action, they have an opportunity for a huge play. Ponder must remember to look off Free Safety Nate Allen, who is a legit NFL 2nd round type safety.

Over Summer I wrote:

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly and unlikely to happen again. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

It is so tough to judge what USF has done this year. I generally agree with what the above said, except I don't know about their run defense as much now. They will probably be more conservative because of their freshmen corners.

Finally, special teams.

USF has a huge kicker problem. Last season they were 71st in the nation in terms of points earned and points expected from their kicking game. They had solved the problem, but their solution broke his back falling of a Busch Gardens ride. So it's going to be a freshman walk-on or Delbert Alvarado who is just terrible.

1 Florida State 0.107

2 Syracuse 0.086

5 UCLA 0.052

8 Miami 0.045

10 Wisconsin 0.038

11 LSU 0.037

16 North Carolina State 0.021

23 Texas 0.016

29 Pittsburgh 0.012

37 Duke 0.008

44 Florida 0.004

48 Clemson 0.001

51 Virginia Tech 0

52 Vanderbilt -0.002

53 Maryland -0.002

56 BYU -0.004

57 North Carolina -0.005

61 USC -0.006

70 Georgia Tech -0.012

71 South Florida -0.012

83 Rutgers -0.021

93 Virginia -0.029

94 Wake Forest -0.029

106 Boston College -0.044

120 Auburn -0.093

USF should go for every 4th down if at all possible.

Both teams have very good return units and poor kick and punt coverage units.

I expect FSU to get 34 points. FSU should start fast, then USF will adjust and counterpunch and catch up, then FSU has to throw their counters and the offense should be enough to put pressure on USF's offense and force them into mistakes. While I think the potential for a blowout is definitely there, it will only happen if FSU gets a bit early lead. I just don't think the offense goes for 50+, because USF is a decent defense, and because Ponder running and the threat of Ponder running is a decent part of FSU's offense.

34-27 Noles is my pick.

Offensive Player of the game: Andrew Datko.

Defensive Player of the game: NIgel Bradham (must play really well).

'Nole Your Enemy: Scouting South Florida's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:35:19 -0000

With only 40 days until the 2009 season starts, it's time to learn about the teams on Florida State's schedule. We'll start with the teams Florida State did not play last year, leading off with in-state foe South Florida. Yesterday we looked at USF's offense (not impressive), and today we'll look at their better half and the Bulls' special teams.

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.	39th
S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link.	38th	10th	78th
S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only	3rd	2nd	6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's easily in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who will eventually play in the NFL.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and is starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

Front 7 Size

If you've been following the 'Noles and reading our site closely, you'd know about the correlation between front 7 size and defensive success. In three of FSU's 4 loses in 2008, they faced monstrous front 7 defenses that were amongst the best in the nation: UF (1845lbs), Wake Forest (1875lbs), and Boston College (1902lbs). As the linked article explains, a stout front 7 affords a defense many benefits. A front 7 of 1830lbs or more really begins to help a defense. FSU gashed most teams under 1830lbs last year.

USF's defense weighs in at 1810lbs, which is good but not great. When a team is not big enough to stop the run with their front 7, they have to devote an extra defender (defensive back) to the run, creating an 8-man front. USF does just that. Of course, that creates a disadvantage for the secondary and limits the possible coverages, but it's a tradeoff that USF makes. They absolutely sell out for the run.

This is an interesting case, because size wise, USF's front 7 is above average, but they are 35+ lbs smaller (and definitely less talented) than the 2008 defenses which shut down FSU's run game. I assume USF will try to stop the run without the extra defender, at least initially, and then will bring the 8th man down into the box. that presents an interesting quandary for the Bulls:

If USF plays 8 in the box and accounts for the deep ball, FSU will bubble screen them to death. (Like Miami, NC State for a bit, and MD did some in 2008)
If USF plays 8 in the box and tries to account for the bubble screen, FSU will go deep. (like Va Tech forced FSU to do)
If USF plays honest defense (7 in the box), stays in 2-deep coverage, the 'Noles will run the ball.

Most likely, USF will go with the 2nd option and force FSU to beat them deep as Virginia Tech did (and FSU did beat them deep), because it's a high risk but potentially high reward strategy, and as the inferior team, USF will need to take risks. The Bulls will do everything in their power to stop the run and have done so for years.

If USF is somehow able to stop the 'Nole running game with only 7 men, however, they have a serious shot to pull the upset. It truly is an interesting case and will test the "rule of 1830lbs."

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

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1	Florida State	0.107
2	Syracuse	0.086
5	UCLA	0.052
8	Miami	0.045
10	Wisconsin	0.038
11	LSU	0.037
16	North Carolina State	0.021
23	Texas	0.016
29	Pittsburgh	0.012
37	Duke	0.008
44	Florida	0.004
48	Clemson	0.001
51	Virginia Tech	0
52	Vanderbilt	-0.002
53	Maryland	-0.002
56	BYU	-0.004
57	North Carolina	-0.005
61	USC	-0.006
70	Georgia Tech	-0.012
71	South Florida	-0.012
83	Rutgers	-0.021
93	Virginia	-0.029
94	Wake Forest	-0.029
106	Boston College	-0.044
120	Auburn	-0.093

Patriots draft former Cyclone McKenzie

JustinKendall — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:35:00 -0000

The New England Patriots drafted former Cyclone linebacker Tyrone McKenzie in the third round of the NFL Draft.

ESPN's draft analysis says:

McKenzie reads his keys, locates the ball quickly and tackles well. He also shows good range and awareness in zone coverage. The biggest concern we have with him is that he doesn't have great top-end speed, so he's going to have a problems matching up with tight ends and backs in man coverage. He also lacks great ball skills.

McKenzie spent the 2006 season at Iowa State before transferring to South Florida. During his short stint at ISU, McKenzie was a second team All-Big 12 selection. He ranked eighth in the nation with 10.75 tackles a game and 129 tackles for the season.

With 97th pick, the New England Patriots select OLB Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida

MaPatsFan — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:13:11 -0000

What a cool story. From Reiss's Pieces:

In selecting South Florida linebacker Tyrone McKenzie with the 97th overall selection, the Patriots landed a player with one of the most inspirational stories in the draft.

McKenzie played at three colleges, and after his mother was left unable to work by injuries suffered in an accident, he left school and was working from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. at a Hampton Inn to support her and his three sisters.

In a nutshell, he had to work harder than everyone around him to hold on to his dream and take responsibility for supporting his family. I love this kid already. Tyrone is clearly a huge value pick. He doesn't possess the crazy skills of an Aaron Curry or Clay Matthews, but he'll project well as a pass rusher, in my opinion. Slightly smaller than you'd like for an OLB, I think he's the "get in the backfield" guy we've been missing. I'm a firm believer in the pass rush as a disruptive tool and I hope Tyrone carves out a niche.

Great value pick for the Patriots. I don't think he'll need to work at a hotel anymore.

Rumblings Authors Mock, V2.0 - krytime's take

Brian Galliford — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Mississippi OT Michael Oher getting more and more love from Bills mock drafters. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)

Browse more photos »

Ed. Note, by Brian Galliford: Yes, this is another post in the Rumblings Authors Mock series. Raise your hand if you're tired of mock drafts and just want it to be the weekend already! Even so, 'krytime' has got some thoughts to share and a Buffalo Bills mock to present; he gets that opportunity now. Everything from this point forward is his. End Note

Here's my feeble attempt at predicting what will happen from now through the end of the upcoming weekend.

Before I go further, let me re-state a few of my beliefs when it comes to the draft. First, I like to draft big guys in the early rounds, and by that I mean addressing the following positions: DT, DE, T, C, and G, in no particular order. I'm also a proponent of 'best player available'. Most important to my strategy, though, is to stay out of the top half of the first round, and accumulate as many picks as you can in rounds two through four.

As such, I’m a huge fan of trading down. The Bills never seem to do that though, as pointed out over the last five years in Peter King’s MMQB. Not once did they move down to get an extra pick in the last five years. Ridiculous, I say! As far as trading up goes, I think it’s fair to say that two of the three times they did, it backfired. Ugh. I get puke in my mouth every time I think of this.

Thankfully, the Jason Peters ordeal is over, and it gave us two extra picks this year to add talent to the team. It also left us with a gaping hole on the OL, and that has to be addressed. I think Kirk Chambers should be given the first shot at LT, and then I’d like to keep an eye on Demetrius Bell and his development. It’s obviously just the homer in me, but I do tend to overrate both, especially Bell. Langston Walker, in my opinion, should be kept at RT, along with Brad Butler staying at RG.

Is there any chance they can improve the OL before the draft this week? FA is never done; it just slows down. Would an old guy like Mark Trauscher, Chris Naole, or Jon Runyan be decent depth options? Brian Waters from KC is the rumor many of us hope for in a trade, but I doubt it happens. I would just like to get another vet in to guard against the volatility of the draft forcing them to reach for a player for the desperate OL.

Parrish Trade Projection, other wild cards to consider
I will pencil in a trade that I do think and kind of hope happens. Roscoe Parrish may need a ride to the airport on his way out of Buffalo. I think he’ll go for a fourth, and I’d like for the Bills to do that. Many here have argued against this. But with only 53 roster spots and the OL surely to have some inexperience, they may have to shuffle the way they build a roster, and in my opinion, it won’t be one that carries six or seven receivers.

Now, as for my super-huge wish of trading out of eleven and down to the twenties, adding an extra second rounder - I don’t think it’ll happen. I just don’t see a player at that spot who teams would move up for. Like Peter King, I think USC QB Mark Sanchez has a lot to do with the way this draft plays out. If he were to last until eleven, then I think some teams would call the Bills. I could see Washington and Denver making a move, but that would barely net a fifth rounder, assuming it would be the first Denver pick. I want to say Minnesota would be a good fit, but I don’t know if they are content with Sage Rosenfels or not. The Jets? Doubt it. Seattle and/or Cleveland moving back up in the first for him? Doubt that too.

So for this mock draft, I have the Bills picking at the following spots: 11, 28, 42, 75, 110, 118 (I used this middle of the round spot as an average for a Parrish trade), 121, 147, 183 and 220.

Just for the heck of it, a few wild cards to throw out, as I‘ll never rule out anything:

Chris Kelsay trade - I really do think he’d get you more than a seventh. Nothing more than a fifth though. It’s something to consider.
Marshawn Lynch trade - Out of curiosity, what would he fetch?
John McCargo trade - Maybe a fifth?
Ashton Youboty trade - Maybe another fourth?

And for the record, I doubt any of these happen. On to the mock… which appears after the jump.

1-11: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi. I know it’s been said the Bills prefer Andre Smith, but I don’t think he’ll be there. If he is, he’s my pick. If not, I’m taking the next best LT in this year’s draft. His alleged ability to play G makes him more attractive to me.

1-28: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State. My prediction here is that the Bills trade up into the early twenties to get Pettigrew, using a third-rounder to do so. I hope they don’t. No knock on Pettigrew, but I’d rather take a chance on Michael Johnson. The kid is a freak, and reminds me of Calais Campbell. They say he has some issues with regard to work ethic. I don’t buy it. His dad is a military guy, and all he did last year was produce.

2-42: Max Unger, G/C, Oregon. I would love to see Max Unger fall, and I think he will. That’s who I’m picking here.

3-75: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida. Tyrone McKenzie is my pick for the third round. I think he has good size, and is a nice fit in a Cover 2. If the Bills were to use this pick in a Pettigrew trade, I’d use the multiple fourth rounders to get up enough to get this guy. It goes against my thinking of trading down, that’s for sure.

4-110: Sammie Lee Hill, DT, Stillman. Sammie Lee Hill gets picked here. It’s good to have an over-sized DT with some athletic ability on your roster. If Chris Baker is here, that’s my pick. He’ll be gone earlier in my opinion.

4-118: Derek Pegues, S, Mississippi State. If Chip Vaughn is here, he’s my pick. If not, maybe the smaller, jack of all trades Derek Pegues will do the trick.

4-121: Phillip Hunt, DE, Houston. I have to pick him here. After all, I interviewed Jim Jeffcoat about him.

5-147: Davon Drew, TE, East Carolina. He’s a blocker, and that’s what I think this team could use. I really like Fine a lot, so I’ve ignored this position throughout the draft, maybe even to a fault. Depending on how things go (for example, with Pettigrew), LB Zack Follett could be a choice here. From what I’ve seen, I like watching the guy play football.

6-183: Ryan Stancheck, OT, West Virginia. Ask me any question about him - I won’t know it.

7-220: Phil Trautwein, OT, Florida. Ask me any question about him - I won’t know it.

I obviously mailed in the last two picks. But they are what they are - flyers on big men who have played a lot of college football in big time conferences. Maybe one of them turns out to be practice squad fodder at best; maybe one turns into a player.

I’m sure I’ll get beat up a little for this mock, and most likely, deservedly so. Have at it...

Rumblings Authors Mock, V2.0 - Galliford's Take

Brian Galliford — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 04:15:08 -0000

DE Ayers a likely Round 1 target (photo source)

The 2009 NFL Draft is one week from tomorrow, Buffalo Bills fans! With that glorious fact in mind, (most of) the editorial staff at Buffalo Rumblings will be bringing you our final versions of our seven-round team mock drafts over the next week. Predicting the NFL Draft is impossible even without a contract squabble hanging over your heads; we're toughing it out. Over the next seven days, you'll have at least one mock from a Rumblings author - but don't worry. We'll have plenty of draft coverage to supplement the mocks as well, including the reveal of the Buffalo Rumblings 2009 NFL Draft Big Board.

Since I run the show (toot!), I'm starting the Authors Mock series off today. Each author was given free license to do the mock however they saw fit; in my case, I've done two - one with trades of Jason Peters and Roscoe Parrish included, and one without. This is going to be long, so bear with me.

MOCK ONE: NO TRADES

We'll get the "boring" mock out of the way first. This is how I believe the draft might unfold for the Bills - not "what I would do," but "what I think the Bills will do." I don't do mock drafts for personal satisfaction or to promote my own beliefs on prospects. This is how I see the Bills making decisions on draft day. (And I feel extremely comfortable predicting that much can and will change over the next week, so don't take this as canon.)

Round 1, Pick 11: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
You probably saw this pick coming based on writings over the past week or two. Ayers has soared up draft boards at the right time and is now a lock to be taken in the first round. Ayers will be at, or at a bare minimum near, the top of the Bills' board. I did not project a Peters trade in this mock, but that doesn't mean he's signed; if that's the case and Alabama OT Andre Smith were available, the Bills would undoubtedly seriously consider him, if not pick him. I expect that TE Brandon Pettigrew and LB Clay Matthews will be in the conversations as well, but Ayers seems like the probable choice at this point.

2-42: Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State
No matter what, the Bills are still in need of a new starting guard. I've been touting Oregon's Max Unger for a while as a possibility, but call this one the first of many gut feelings I'm about to have - I think Levitre will be their pick in round two. The college left tackle is far better suited to play guard at the NFL level, and some scouts think he can play center as well. That versatility is Unger's major selling point, but Levitre might have just as much of it - in a tougher, nastier package. He should start immediately at either left or right guard.

3-75: Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State
Again, I re-iterate: Peters is not traded in this scenario, but he's not signed, either. That's the worst-case scenario for Buffalo, so they will need to hedge their bets with a high-upside OT prospect in the early rounds that can start in a pinch. Cadogan is that type of player - not an immediate starter, but a possessor of very solid potential. He would compete with Kirk Chambers for the starting LT position while Peters sat at home hoping the team will pay him. (And again, I feel I should mention that this is the worst-case scenario for Buffalo. I don't expect this to happen unless things go very badly on draft day.)

4-110: Gerald McRath, LB, Southern Miss
It's always difficult to predict what type of linebacker the Bills will pursue - will they take the big-bodied, downhill run defenders or the light-footed, undersized pass defenders? In McRath, they get a little of both - he's a middle linebacker by trade with the athletic chops to man the weak side in a 4-3 scheme. He's been over-hyped a bit in terms of draft status, and it's not a lock that he would be available this late (though he certainly could be). I think he'd be a good fit as a SAM linebacker in Buffalo, though he's not by any means an immediate starter.

5-147: Corvey Irvin, DT, Georgia
Buffalo had Irvin in for a pre-draft visit - which doesn't mean a lot, but it doesn't mean nothing, either. At this point in the draft, he would represent solid value - and the team would like to add some competition to kick John McCargo into gear (though that's clearly not a high priority). Irvin is an underrated athlete that's quick in the short area. He can cause some problems as a penetrator. The Bills should seriously consider investing in the long-term future of the DT position with Marcus Stroud on the wrong side of 30, but if they do, it likely won't be too early in the draft.

6-183: John Phillips, TE, Virginia
This is the type of tight end pick that Bills fans would immediately despise. See why it makes sense? Phillips is the type of TE that the team has traditionally preferred - gritty, solid athletically and a good blocker. He would add to the competition at the position, and he and Derek Fine could actually make a pretty solid (if extremely underwhelming) 1-2 punch at the position.

7-220: Greg Toler, CB, St. Paul's
The Bills like their "random DB" picks, and always have. No one had heard of Northwestern State's Terrence McGee in 2003. Nor had anyone a clue about Akron's Reggie Corner last year. Toler is a popular sleeper pick out of St. Paul's, a school that has never had a player drafted into the NFL. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for the Bills - but Toler's got some solid upside.

There. Boring stuff is out of the way. In my second mock - which appears after the jump - the Bills are getting three extra picks through two trades, and it's shaking up the way they're going about adding players to the roster. Check it out!

MOCK TWO: PETERS, PARRISH TRADED

Before we get into the picks (patience, padawans!), we have to go over the trades involved in this mock.

Peters to Philadelphia: I still believe that the Bills will be able to squeeze a first-round pick out of a team the closer they get to draft day. The Eagles are obviously interested. (But are they more interested in Anquan Boldin?) I have the Bills shipping Peters to Philadelphia for two picks - their second first-rounder, No. 28 overall, and the first of their four fifth-rounders, No. 141 overall. It's time to lay the "first and a third for Peters" dream to rest - the Bills will likely be willing to accept (far?) less than that to get the situation resolved. With the Eagles possessing twelve picks, this is a fair trade in that they pick up Peters while retaining their high first-round pick as well as at least one selection in every round.

Parrish to Tennessee: Buffalo is reportedly seeking a fourth-round pick for Parrish - which isn't an awful lot value-wise to a team as good as the Tennessee Titans. Last year's best regular season team holds ten draft picks - and they're hurting for both a return man (Chris Carr left via free agency for Baltimore) and receiver depth. Parrish has a chance to help them tremendously - can you imagine having to deal with the type of speed that offensive skill players like Parrish and RB Chris Johnson possess? Therefore, I have the Bills shipping Parrish to the Titans for their fourth-round pick, No. 130 overall.

There we go. Peters and Parrish are gone for a first, a fourth, and a fifth. Onto the picks...

1-11: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Surprise! Peters is gone, and the Bills aren't taking an offensive tackle?! It's not the lock that most Bills fans seem to think it would be. There is very little chance that the team could seriously contend for top tackle prospects Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe. That leaves Andre Smith and Michael Oher. The team would obviously prefer Smith, but I sincerely doubt that he makes it out of the top ten. I mentioned in the "boring" mock that I thought Ayers would beat out Pettigrew and Matthews for the pick; Oher is now necessarily a part of the conversation because of the Peters trade, but I still think Ayers beats Oher out. Just a gut feeling. The margin between Ayers and Pettigrew/Matthews is much wider than between Ayers/Oher, based on need alone. I still think Ayers is the pick.

1-28: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
It's fairly obvious that the Bills love Pettigrew. Obviously, OT is still a need, but it's incredibly unlikely that Oher or even the overrated Eben Britton drop this far into round one. The team could reach for UConn's William Beatty, but far more likely, they'd take a guy they like. I firmly believe that if the Bills are able to pick up an extra first-round pick by dealing Peters, Pettigrew will be the target. There's a chance that Pettigrew could slide, but it's also possible (and more likely) that the Bills could swap a pick or two to move back up a few slots and nab Pettigrew. If they were to emerge from round one with Ayers and Pettigrew in tow, even with a hole at LT remaining, I believe the Bills' brass would be ecstatic (and most of the fan base would have fists through monitors).

2-42: Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State
Ladies and gentlemen, your new starting left tackle... at some point. OT is such a critical need at this point that I think the Bills would reach for any guy that they believe has good upside. I wanted to pencil Beatty in here, but I don't think he lasts all the way to No. 42. Again, Cadogan would enter the mix with Kirk Chambers and Demetrius Bell - and Bills fans would worry about the LT position for all eternity. (So would the Bills, in all likelihood.)

3-75: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
Linebackers typically fall on draft days - which is exactly why I don't see the Bills addressing the position earlier than this spot, and which is exactly why I'm hoping McKenzie lasts this long into the third round. I love this kid - he's active, athletic, and mature. I think he's an instant starter. I wouldn't be disappointed if the Bills considered him in the second round. He's not ever going to be a dominant run defender, but he's good in coverage already, plays hard, and has some solid upside.

4-110: T.J. Lang, G/T, Eastern Michigan
One of the more underrated linemen in the draft, Lang is a stocky, physical run blocker that has the potential to start very early in his career. It's tough to gauge exactly when a small-school prospect like Lang will be picked - he could go as late as the fifth round, or as high as the second, as EMU teammate DL Jason Jones did last year. Lang might start at guard as a rookie in Buffalo, and he'd be excellent value here.

4-130: Courtney Greene, SS, Rutgers
I've believed all along that the Bills would pursue an in-the-box strong safety to complement Donte Whitner's move to free safety. Greene is that type of player - big and physical. He's also a smart player and will be able to help out on special teams. He's got the career outlook of a Bryan Scott - a situational player that won't let you down, but a liability in other areas. That's about as much has they can hope for from a mid-round safety prospect. (Side note: I seriously considered Derek Pegues of Mississippi State here because of his return experience, but two separate legal issues turned me off.)

5-141: Corvey Irvin, DT, Georgia
I had him in my "boring" mock, too, six spots lower than this. See above for an explanation.

5-147: Jerraud Powers, CB, Auburn
I think the Bills will look for a sixth cornerback in this draft. They'll have an easier time getting away with it if they have extra draft picks thanks to a trade. Powers is a small player that will have to play inside as a pro, but he's a quick athlete - and with some polish, he has the potential to grow into a very solid sub-package corner and special teams player. Powers is a bit of a risk-taker, and the Bills could use some of that defensively.

6-183: Henry Melton, DE, Texas
I don't believe that the Bills are looking at this year's draft and thinking "we have to draft two defensive ends." I believe they'll take at least one, but if a player with Melton's raw potential were to be available here in the sixth, I think they'd have a hard time not pulling the trigger. Melton is a superb athletic specimen, and though he hasn't played a lot of end (he started out as a RB at Texas), he's got elite potential - and that potential alone may get him drafted higher than this. If the Bills were to enter training camp with Chris Ellis, Ayers and Melton as the "young guns" at defensive end, I'd say they have a future at the position. Melton's best fit will be as a left end in a 4-3.

7-220: Anthony Parker, OG, Tennessee
Versatile, athletic, solid line prospect that has fallen out of favor in most places because of an arrest and his limited upside. Sounds like a solid fit for the Bills as a depth player - and in the seventh round, you're not doing much better than a depth player.

So, to recap...

MOCK ONE: NO TRADES
1-11: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
2-42: Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State
3-75: Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State
4-110: Gerald McRath, LB, Southern Miss
5-147: Corvey Irvin, DT, Georgia
6-183: John Phillips, TE, Virginia
7-220: Greg Toler, CB, St. Paul's

MOCK TWO: PETERS, PARRISH TRADED
1-11: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
1-28: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
2-42: Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State
3-75: Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4-110: T.J. Lang, G/T, Eastern Michigan
4-130: Courtney Greene, SS, Rutgers
5-141: Corvey Irvin, DT, Georgia
5-147: Jerraud Powers, CB, Auburn
6-183: Henry Melton, DE, Texas
7-220: Anthony Parker, OG, Tennessee

I imagine that the few of you that actually read every word of this are gnashing your teeth right now. I imagine that the majority of you that skimmed just to see what the trades were and who was picked are gnashing your teeth and think I'm insane (though the first group is entitled to that opinion as well). It's up to you to decide whether or not your teeth-gnashing makes my guesses more or less accurate. Fire away.

Pre-draft visit: OLB Tyrone McKenzie

MaPatsFan — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 02:33:10 -0000

Tyrone McKenzie isn't that big nor that tall. In fact, according to draftcountdown.com, he's just average. On the surface, nothing really sets Tyrone apart from the crowd. But, if you just scratch at the surface, looks are deceiving. Tyrone has had to overcome tremendous odds to just get on the field.

Bottom line: this kid went to college, played football, and cared for his sick mother. He grew up fast and had to carry a big load on his shoulders. This is what we call character building and it's the kind of stuff that's defined this team every since Belichick took over as Head Coach. So what if draftcountdown.com doesn't have great things to say:

Just average size and bulk...Can be too aggressive at times...Not very strong or physical...Isn't a big hitter...Has some trouble getting off blocks...Doesn't fill hard against the run...Average hands and ball skills...Uses sub par leverage...Is not much of a pass rusher or blitzer...Definitely isn't a thumper...Bounced around to three colleges.

Calling him a mid rounder may be true. However, one sentence from Draftcountdown's notes section had me intrigued:

Won't be an ideal fit for everyone but should draw plenty of interest from teams willing to sacrifice size in exchange for speed and athleticism.

Sounds like a pass rusher and a kid who may have a chip on his shoulder, something to prove. The kind of kid who will work harder than anyone on the field. Maybe a future 12th player award winner? I like him already.

Under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on

Brian Galliford — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 12:30:10 -0000

Clemson SS Michael Hamlin (photo source)

The 2009 NFL Draft is two weeks from tomorrow (Saturday) evening. We've coverered several draft prospects, discussed several pick and trade scenarios almost to death, and that coverage will continue right up through the big weekend. We've also got a second round of Rumblings Authors Mocks coming to you in the week leading up to the draft, and we'll also unveil a full two-round mock draft as well as the Buffalo Rumblings NFL Draft Big Board. Lots more coming your way in draft coverage related to the Buffalo Bills, so don't miss it.

Today's a good day, however, to step away from the top-of-the-draft scenarios and talk about a few under-the-radar prospects. These are five guys that won't cost an arm and a leg pick-wise to grab (particularly if we acquire extra draft picks), but all have traits that could allow them to contribute to the team as early as their rookie seasons. If I'm picking for Buffalo anywhere between rounds two and five, these are guys I'm going to consider.

Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State
Even though the Bills signed Seth McKinney on Thursday, the team still has depth issues along their interior offensive line, as well as a need for a starting left guard (or right guard, if the coaching staff moves Brad Butler to the left side). Levitre was a tackle in college, but lacking height and arm length, he's far more ideal as a guard prospect for the NFL. He's got great hand punch, moves pretty well, and is the type of boring draft pick that good teams make. He has the ability to start at either guard position as a rookie, and has the potential to be a force both as a pass blocker and as a road grader in the run game. Projected round: 2-3

Tyrone McKenzie, OLB, South Florida (Scouting Report)
Aaron Curry and five outstanding prospects from USC and Ohio State are overshadowing this guy - which will help whichever team picks him up. McKenzie is an outstanding athlete that had a super-productive college career at USF, amassing 366 tackles, 32 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 16 pass breakups (with two picks) over his past three seasons. He's big (though not overly physical), and his athleticism and comfort in coverage make him a great fit for the SAM spot in Buffalo's Tampa 2 defense. As linebackers tend to slide on draft day, the Bills might be best served waiting at the position and picking up McKenzie - he can start right away, as long as he's not counted on to be an every-down defender. Projected round: 2-3

Sherrod Martin, FS/CB, Troy
The only downfall to Martin as a prospect is that he'll be a 25-year-old rookie - he's one of the senior members of this year's draft class. He's a great athlete that played free safety while at Troy, but will probably be viewed as a cornerback by most NFL teams. Buffalo desperately needs a playmaker wherever they can find one defensively, and Martin has two factors working in his favor there - a flair for the big play (nine career interceptions) and an established rapport with Buffalo's most talented defensive back, Leodis McKelvin. Yes, I realize that drafting a defensive back isn't ideal, but I feel sure that if the Bills see one that they believe can make plays for them, they won't hesitate to add him - regardless of perceived need. Martin could be that type of player. Projected round: 2-3

Michael Hamlin, SS, Clemson (Scouting Report)
In terms of early-mid round playmaking defensive backs, Hamlin might be my favorite this year. With Donte Whitner moving to free safety and Ko Simpson fighting for a roster spot after a disappointing '08 campaign, the Bills could be in the market for a strong safety to complement Whitner and make a few plays. Hamlin is that type of player. Unlike Troy's Martin, Hamlin is a strong safety by trade - he's good in the box, natural in coverage, and has made plenty of big plays in the ACC (14 career interceptions). He's smart, and his only downfalls are a lack of great timed speed and a general stiffness in his overall coverage skill package. As the Bills already have a physical strong safety (Bryan Scott), Hamlin is the type of guy they can rotate in on passing downs to see if he can't make a few big plays for them. Projected round: 3-4

Henry Melton, DE, Texas
Brian Orakpo is the big name from UT this year, but Melton is flying under the radar in a big way. He's only played defensive end for two seasons, having spent his first two years playing RB at Texas. Therefore, he's incredibly raw, but as a mid-round pick, you're not going to find more ideal athletic specimens - Melton is 6'3", weighs 269 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash between 4.65 and 4.75 seconds. He projects as a left end in a 4-3 defense, and he has some raw pass rushing talent and pursues the way Buffalo's coaching staff likes their linemen to do. I'm not saying he's the answer to the Bills' pass rush woes by any stretch of the imagination. But if the team passes on an end early, Melton is an intriguing mid-round option that fits the description of what the team generally looks for at DE. Projected round: 4-5

We've got videos of all of these prospects, with the exception of Melton (unfortunately), after the jump. If there are any under-the-radar guys that you like, this is the spot to talk about them.

OLB, Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida

Jeremy Bolander — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:50:32 -0000

OLB, Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida

At A Glance
Position 1: Outside Linebacker	Height: 6-2
Position 2:	Weight: 243
Class: Senior	Age:
Projected Round: 3rd	40time: 4.28

Combine/Proday Results
Bench Reps: 27	Vertical: X
20yd Split: 2.76	Broad Jump: 9'4"
10yd Split: 1.60	20yd Shuttle: X
3 Cone Drill: X

Pros: Some versatility to play inside and in space. ... "Sam" linebacker who lines up in the stack and nine-techniques.

Cons: Could be considered a bit of an inside-outside "tweener" by NFL teams. ... Not especially fluid dropping into coverage.

Styg's Broncos Fit: Has legitimate first-day talent but didn't play on passing downs, so his value on Day One might not pan out. Does a good job of playing around the line and can disengage from TEs and OTs. Has a tremendous work ethic, which shines in his ability to consistently produce despite transferring to three different teams through his career. A good overall build, good upper-body strength and a secure tackler, his one drawback is that there is little way to get a good read on his ability in pass coverage. Without that information, 3 stars is as high as one can go.

Around MHR:

Around SBNation:

From Scouting Report at Mocking the Draft

No matter what school he did it at, McKenzie was productive. He had 129 tackles for Iowa State in 2006 and topped the 100 mark in his two seasons at South Florida. Does a great job against the run breaking down in the open field and making tackles. While he isn't necessarily a big hitter, McKenzie is a sound tackler who has several forced fumbles. Works hard until the whistle blows and can make plays all over the field. Good agility, which allows him to fluidly change direction. Great character.

From "Grading the Starting LB Prospects" at Buffalo Rumblings:

Third Round Grades
8. Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida: Good athlete. Quick with sideline-to-sideline range. He's a very smart player, which helps him overcome stiff hips in coverage routinely. By no means is he polished in this department, however. Like Freeman, he's not physical and isn't necessarily a top-notch run defender. Unlike Freeman, he's got ideal size (6'2", 243). Solid upside, but a risky bet as a rookie starter.

Highlights:

Scouting Reports and Offsite Links:

McKenzie has been slowed by a hamstring injury and was timed at 4.78 seconds, which is in the same range as many of the top linebackers at the combine. Ohio State's James Laurinaitis, for instance, ran a 4.8 in Indianapolis. McKenzie had a solid time in the 20-yard shuttle -- 5 yards to the left, 10 to the right, then 5 back to the original starting point. His time of 4.28 seconds was the fastest of any USF player. [see more...]
Nearly saw his football career come to an end as a junior in high school when he suffered a severely fractured leg, which required the insertion of a titanium rod to repair...Began his college career at Michigan St. in 2004...Transferred to Iowa St. and sat out the 2005 season...Started all 12 games at middle linebacker for the Cyclones and was named 2nd Team All-Big 12 in 2006...Opted to transfer yet again but was granted an NCAA hardship waiver and allowed to play without sitting for a year because his mother was sick...Was 2nd Team All-Big East in 2007 and earned 1st Team honors in 2008...Could project outside or inside at the next level depending on the scheme...Has a fantastic blend of physical tools and production and should test well in workouts...Won't be an ideal fit for everyone but should draw plenty of interest from teams willing to sacrifice size in exchange for speed and athleticism. [see more...]
A gifted athlete who plays near the line of scrimmage and shows the power to hold the point of attack and chase down the ball toward the perimeter. Has a good first step and is athletically gifted in space. Redirects very cleanly for his size. Showcases great range in zone coverage and an ability to run with tight ends down the field. A solid wrap-up guy. [see more...]
Here's a review of Matt's 2007 All-Overhyped Team OLB: Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida
Outstanding call; Tyrone McKenzie could be the first outside linebacker off the board in the 2009 NFL Draft. [see more...]

Ranking the NFL Draft's starting linebacker prospects

Brian Galliford — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:00:14 -0000

As the 2009 NFL Draft approaches, we here at Buffalo Rumblings will continue interviewing bloggers and consulting outside sources in putting together detailed scouting reports on some of the Draft's most noteworthy prospects - concentrating, of course, on prospects that could pique the interest of the Buffalo Bills. This is the start of a new series in which I'll rank prospects at each position; ultimately, this project will roll itself into the "Buffalo Rumblings Big Board", which is exactly what it sounds like - the same type of big board NFL teams keep handy on draft day.

To date, most Bills fans have spent most of their energy in draft talks discussing offensive linemen, a certain Oklahoma State tight end, and the various speed rushing defensive ends available. However, the Bills have an open spot at strong-side linebacker that remains unaddressed. With that in mind, there are nine linebackers that grade out (by my book) as starting material as rookies. Those nine names, in order of preference and grouped by round grade, are below.

Round One Grades
1. Aaron Curry, Wake Forest: Solid all-around linebacker with fantastic athleticism and leadership abilities. Isn't quite the game-breaker that many are making him out to be; he's also certainly not worthy of being the top overall pick. Most definitely a Top 10 pick, however. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

2. Clay Matthews, USC: To say this guy's stock has skyrocketed is an understatement. Outside of Curry, might be the best athlete at the linebacker position. Supremely talented blitzer. Versatility and work ethic are major selling points at the moment. His coverage skills are lacking, but in Buffalo, he'd either come off the field on passing downs or move down and rush from the DE position. Exactly the type of player that NFL coaches love to coach. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

3. Brian Cushing, USC: Perhaps the best pure tackler of the three USC prospects. Unfortunately, he's also the biggest question mark. Durability is a huge concern. His coverage skills are severely underdeveloped, and he's not exactly the game-breaking type. He's a solid fit as a SAM, but his utility is limited to that spot. Does have a considerable amount of upside. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

4. Rey Maualuga, USC: Easily the most NFL-ready linebacker this year. The type of player that you plug into the lineup and let him go from Day One. Like his two USC teammates, he's got experience in a zone-based scheme. Two things are working against him in terms of Buffalo, however - less than stellar straight-line speed and, far more importantly, the fact that the team seems content keeping Paul Posluszny inside. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

Five more names for you after the jump.

Second Round Grades
5. Gerald McRath, Southern Mississippi: A quick, fast, nimble athlete, though he doesn't play as fast as his workout numbers might indicate. Played middle linebacker in college - and therefore knows how to compete in the box - but is probably a more natural fit outside in a 4-3 alignment. Size (224 pounds) is a concern, but has the frame to get bigger. Instincts are great; polished in coverage. Has the potential to be dominant in a Tampa 2 scheme. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

6. James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: Like Maualuga, he's got Posluszny's entrenchment on the inside working against him. He's not a game-changer, and he's more limited athletically than some of his peers he's competing at the top with. Still, the kid has through-the-roof intangibles and a nose for the ball. He's a very solid run defender. He'll be more highly valued by other teams, as he should be. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

7. Marcus Freeman, Ohio State: Is sliding back up draft boards after solid performances at both the Scouting Combine and his Pro Day. An underrated athlete, but doesn't play as big as his 240-pound frame would indicate. Not a physical tackler. Might not hold up well against the run at the NFL level, but has good potential. Polished in coverage, though he lacks good ball skills. Short by NFL standards. Draft Countdown Scouting Report

Third Round Grades
8. Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida: Good athlete. Quick with sideline-to-sideline range. He's a very smart player, which helps him overcome stiff hips in coverage routinely. By no means is he polished in this department, however. Like Freeman, he's not physical and isn't necessarily a top-notch run defender. Unlike Freeman, he's got ideal size (6'2", 243). Solid upside, but a risky bet as a rookie starter. Draft Countdown Scouting Report

9. Clint Sintim, Virginia: If the Bills ran a 3-4, Sintim would grade out as a first-round prospect. He's a very solid and potentially underrated rush linebacker in that particular scheme. He's not, however, a good fit for the Bills schematically. A bit limited athletically, and not as explosive as the other top 3-4 rush linebacker, Matthews. Terrible in coverage. He'd be a situational player only in a Bills uniform. Mocking the Draft Scouting Report

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This is just my opinion, folks. These are the nine rookie linebackers I think the Bills could get away with plugging into the starting lineup next season. If you think I've made a grievous error in these rankings, let me know. If you think I've got some sort of hidden agenda, I'd love to hear about it. If you're itching to re-shuffle my rankings, let it rip. Consider this an open forum on 2009 NFL Draft linebacking prospects. Go.