SB Nation - Sampson Genus

The Preview Part 2: South Florida's Defense v. Florida State's Offense- with Prediction

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:25:04 -0000

So you read my take on USF's offense against Florida State's defense. One slight addendum to that preview. I know some people on the Western Kentucky team that USF beat. Central Arkansas beat Western Kentucky 28-7 IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. They said that Tennessee's offensive line was much better than USF's offensive line, and that USF's offensive line wasn't much better than that of Central Arkansas. Now let's flip the script. The 'Noles have one of the best offenses in the nation. Against Ranked opponents this season, Florida State is averaging over 450 yards and 44 points. They are talented and smooth. I'll do this like I did the previous installment. Breaking down their defense and what FSU will do to attack it. Finally, I'll have a quick look at the special teams and make a prediction.

This summer I wrote:

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense Overall Run Defense Pass Defense

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.
39th

S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link. 38th 10th 78th

S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only 3rd 2nd 6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who could eventually play in the NFL.

.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and it starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

I was pretty accurate here. Let's discuss the changes

Along the defensive line, Pierre Paul is starting at left end. The other starters are of course Selvie, McClain, and Grissom. I haven't been particularly impressed with Grissom and he could be exploited. This is still a talented defensive line, but they haven't played quite as well as I expected. The decision to start Pierre-Paul could make them more stout against the run (he started last game and is expected to start Saturday.) He's a very talented player who wanted to play for FSU but was turned away by the lazy defensive coaching staff. At this point, I don't expect to see DT McClain make 1st team All-Big East, but 2nd team is possible. Harris is the backup to Grissom.

At linebacker, it is exactly the same. I will note two things. First, Jacquian Williams, the backup strong side backer is really quick and plays some rush end on passing downs. He's # 57. Second, these guys like to run around a lot, but for their size, they should be better at taking on and shedding blocks. WKU did a nice job getting them blocked on the 2nd level.

As far as the lack of sacks, well, that hasn't really been remedied. USF has played two horrible D1-AA teams, and WKU, a provisional 1A school in Western Kentucky who lost to Central Arkansas 28-7, AT HOME. This year they have 5 sacks on 72 opponent pass plays, a sack on 6.9% of pass plays faced. That'd be good over a season, but that is ridiculously poor against the people they faced. FSU's offensive line is great in pass protection, having allowed only 4 sacks on 108 pass plays. That's a great % of 3.6. And that was against two nationally ranked teams. USF is going to need someone other than Selvie to step up.

FSU has the most athletic offensive line in the country. They can block USF's front 7. I am pretty confident in that. Now, USF's defensive line is much much better than BYU's so it won't be the complete domination we saw in Provo Utah. Their tackles aren't as good as Miami's but their defensive ends are better. That's fine. I'd much much much much rather play against good ends than good tackles.

Before we talk more strategy, let's have a look at USF's Secondary. Over summer, I wrote:

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

There are some major changes here. The bulls suffered a major injury to promising sophomore safety Jerrell Young (broken arm). As I noted, he was expected to be their top run defender from the secondary. That necessitated some moves. Murphy was such a good tackler that they decided to move him from his Boundary corner spot to strong safety to replace Jerrell Young. He'll be okay there. But other positions are up in the air.

The Bulls are playing more 4-3 and less 4-2-5 this year, and that was a wise decision in the Spring, though they couldn't have done it in anticipation of Young's injury. It was just preference. The corner positions will be filled with Freshman Webster, Baker, and sophomore Washington (who has been injured with an ankle but is expected back. Butler is also in the mix. Interestingly, when they go to their nickel look, they will put Murphy at Nickel corner and then insert promising redshirt frosh John Lejiste in Murphy's vacated strong safety spot. I am not impressed with the corners for USF- they are both freshmen, but the safety tandem is impressive.

As much as I would like to see FSU spread out the Bulls, I really don't expect them to. I would like to match FSU's 3rd and 4th wideout against 3 redshirt or true freshmen corners for USF. But I don't think it will happen. QB Christian Ponder is in a knee brace and multiple commenter's have noted that he has been limping around campus all week. I have to be honest here- Early this week, I expected E.J. Manuel to start. Ponder's legs are a big part of his game and the Noles offense, but he is also an excellent passer. Everyone expects FSU to shoot Ponder up and start him. There won't be a lot of 4-wide, because Ponder likes to run out of that set so often. He is under strict orders not to run, but the guy will be so amped when they shoot him up, and it's his nature to run. I hope he can avoid further injury.

Also note: he banged up the knee in the 2nd quarter against BYU. It wasn't the result of him being in with a 24 point lead.

What I do expect to see is more like the Denver Broncos or USC. Under center, with 1RB, 1TE, and 3WR's, or 2TE, 2WR's. I really don't want to see a lot of I-Formation. Using the two-tight end set could cause USF some serious problems. Selvie likes to play very wide, and the tight end to his side could force him to make difficult choices.

FSU can run out of both the sets I mentioned. They can also use some 3WR 1TE 1RB Shotgun. WIth the 3WR look, the Bubble Screen option will be available should USF decide not to account for the slot receiver. Here's an example, see the yellow circle to indicate the empty space.

Their linebacker must account for the slot receiver if they stay in their 4-3 base defense. If they get out of that 4-3 base defense, FSU will rip them over and over again with the run. The key will be for their linebacker to split the difference, that is, play far enough out to discourage FSU from throwing the bubble, but not too far as to take himself out of position against the run.

I like FSU to come out and establish the run. It should work. However, because USF's defense is decent, they will probably get some tackles for loss. FSU won't be able to stay out of long down and distance situations the entire game. They will continue to control the ball and keep the defense off the field, however.

While USF has not shown to be a blitz heavy team this season, their DC does have that tendency and FSU needs to be aware of that (they are). I anticipate USF getting frustrated against the run and doing several thigns against which FSU should be able to take advantage. First, they will probably send some run blitzes (different from pass blitzes). To counteract this, look for FSU to bring back the screens over the middle to Fortson and Goodman. These middle screens are highly effective because FSU's offensive line is so athletic, allowing them to block faster players in the open field. Someone once said that the only new thing in football in the past 30 years is the middle screen, as it basically allows the offense to run a kickoff return from scrimmage.

The other thing they will do is stack the box. Murphy (strong safety, but a converted corner) will come up into the box, particularly against the 2TE formations. They will play Allen (free safety) very deep when they do this. While putting more men in the box is effective for stopping the run, it also has a disadvantage: long runs. The reason for this is simply geometry. A player closer to the line doesn't have the angle to catch a player if he breaks a run. He also has less reaction time. If anyone watches the SEA@SF game last weekend, you saw Frank Gore break two 80+ yard runs against the Seahawk defense because he cleared the first wave of defenders and had only one safety to beat, not two, because Seattle played 8 and sometimes even NINE! men in the box.

Additionally, I look for more play-action this week. Getting the ball out of Ponder's hands will be important, because we don't want him taking shots, but another way is to use play-action to make the defense think run before they start rushing the passer. That could put USF in a bind. Their corners are 5'11", 5'11", and 5'10". Everyone lies in media guides, so I am guessing at least one of those kids is really 5'9". Jarmon Fortson is a legit 6'3" and is a beast for a freshman to handle. If FSU can freeze USF on play action, they have an opportunity for a huge play. Ponder must remember to look off Free Safety Nate Allen, who is a legit NFL 2nd round type safety.

Over Summer I wrote:

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly and unlikely to happen again. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

It is so tough to judge what USF has done this year. I generally agree with what the above said, except I don't know about their run defense as much now. They will probably be more conservative because of their freshmen corners.

Finally, special teams.

USF has a huge kicker problem. Last season they were 71st in the nation in terms of points earned and points expected from their kicking game. They had solved the problem, but their solution broke his back falling of a Busch Gardens ride. So it's going to be a freshman walk-on or Delbert Alvarado who is just terrible.

1 Florida State 0.107

2 Syracuse 0.086

5 UCLA 0.052

8 Miami 0.045

10 Wisconsin 0.038

11 LSU 0.037

16 North Carolina State 0.021

23 Texas 0.016

29 Pittsburgh 0.012

37 Duke 0.008

44 Florida 0.004

48 Clemson 0.001

51 Virginia Tech 0

52 Vanderbilt -0.002

53 Maryland -0.002

56 BYU -0.004

57 North Carolina -0.005

61 USC -0.006

70 Georgia Tech -0.012

71 South Florida -0.012

83 Rutgers -0.021

93 Virginia -0.029

94 Wake Forest -0.029

106 Boston College -0.044

120 Auburn -0.093

USF should go for every 4th down if at all possible.

Both teams have very good return units and poor kick and punt coverage units.

I expect FSU to get 34 points. FSU should start fast, then USF will adjust and counterpunch and catch up, then FSU has to throw their counters and the offense should be enough to put pressure on USF's offense and force them into mistakes. While I think the potential for a blowout is definitely there, it will only happen if FSU gets a bit early lead. I just don't think the offense goes for 50+, because USF is a decent defense, and because Ponder running and the threat of Ponder running is a decent part of FSU's offense.

34-27 Noles is my pick.

Offensive Player of the game: Andrew Datko.

Defensive Player of the game: NIgel Bradham (must play really well).

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

'Nole Your Enemy: Scouting South Florida's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:35:19 -0000

With only 40 days until the 2009 season starts, it's time to learn about the teams on Florida State's schedule. We'll start with the teams Florida State did not play last year, leading off with in-state foe South Florida. Yesterday we looked at USF's offense (not impressive), and today we'll look at their better half and the Bulls' special teams.

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.	39th
S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link.	38th	10th	78th
S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only	3rd	2nd	6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's easily in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who will eventually play in the NFL.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and is starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

Front 7 Size

If you've been following the 'Noles and reading our site closely, you'd know about the correlation between front 7 size and defensive success. In three of FSU's 4 loses in 2008, they faced monstrous front 7 defenses that were amongst the best in the nation: UF (1845lbs), Wake Forest (1875lbs), and Boston College (1902lbs). As the linked article explains, a stout front 7 affords a defense many benefits. A front 7 of 1830lbs or more really begins to help a defense. FSU gashed most teams under 1830lbs last year.

USF's defense weighs in at 1810lbs, which is good but not great. When a team is not big enough to stop the run with their front 7, they have to devote an extra defender (defensive back) to the run, creating an 8-man front. USF does just that. Of course, that creates a disadvantage for the secondary and limits the possible coverages, but it's a tradeoff that USF makes. They absolutely sell out for the run.

This is an interesting case, because size wise, USF's front 7 is above average, but they are 35+ lbs smaller (and definitely less talented) than the 2008 defenses which shut down FSU's run game. I assume USF will try to stop the run without the extra defender, at least initially, and then will bring the 8th man down into the box. that presents an interesting quandary for the Bulls:

If USF plays 8 in the box and accounts for the deep ball, FSU will bubble screen them to death. (Like Miami, NC State for a bit, and MD did some in 2008)
If USF plays 8 in the box and tries to account for the bubble screen, FSU will go deep. (like Va Tech forced FSU to do)
If USF plays honest defense (7 in the box), stays in 2-deep coverage, the 'Noles will run the ball.

Most likely, USF will go with the 2nd option and force FSU to beat them deep as Virginia Tech did (and FSU did beat them deep), because it's a high risk but potentially high reward strategy, and as the inferior team, USF will need to take risks. The Bulls will do everything in their power to stop the run and have done so for years.

If USF is somehow able to stop the 'Nole running game with only 7 men, however, they have a serious shot to pull the upset. It truly is an interesting case and will test the "rule of 1830lbs."

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

Become a fan of us on facebook! http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/TomahawkNationcom/63264950770

New Readers: please read through the Tomahawk Nation Welcome Guide! We put a lot of work into that and it should enhance your experience.

Get your official Tomahawk Nation T-SHIRT! ORDER NOW!

via assets.sbnation.com (Click to enlarge)

1	Florida State	0.107
2	Syracuse	0.086
5	UCLA	0.052
8	Miami	0.045
10	Wisconsin	0.038
11	LSU	0.037
16	North Carolina State	0.021
23	Texas	0.016
29	Pittsburgh	0.012
37	Duke	0.008
44	Florida	0.004
48	Clemson	0.001
51	Virginia Tech	0
52	Vanderbilt	-0.002
53	Maryland	-0.002
56	BYU	-0.004
57	North Carolina	-0.005
61	USC	-0.006
70	Georgia Tech	-0.012
71	South Florida	-0.012
83	Rutgers	-0.021
93	Virginia	-0.029
94	Wake Forest	-0.029
106	Boston College	-0.044
120	Auburn	-0.093

'Nole Your Enemies: South Florida Preview- Will The Bulls' Offense be Offensive in 2009?

FSUncensored — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 16:34:30 -0000

With only 40 days until the 2009 season starts, it's time to learn about the opponent's on Florida State's schedule. We'll start with the teams Florida State did not play last year, leading off with in-state foe South Florida. Today we're talking offense, tomorrow will be defense and special teams.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BC conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury). It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

via nationalchamps.net

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

If the Bulls lose Grothe, they will probably miss a bowl as there is nobody else on the roster with any experience in a college game. For that reason, I will not profile the backup quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back.

via www.mikefordonline.org

He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

Wide Receiver

Who Left:

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G
Jessie Hester	SR	WR	54	579	10.7	3	4.2	45
Carlton Mitchell	JR	WR	28	405	14.5	1	2.2	31
A.J. Love	JR	WR	30	354	11.8	2	2.3	27
Dontavia Bogan	JR	WR	26	354	13.6	1	2	27
Ben Busbee	SR	TE	7	99	14.1	2	0.5	8
Patrick Richardson	SO	WR	7	68	9.7	0	0.8	8
Trent Pupello	JR	TE	2	26	13.0	0	0.2	3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.

Bottom Line

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.