Notre Dame at Michigan: The Preview

CW — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:00:46 -0000

My first visit to Notre Dame was as a senior in high school in March of 2004. Due to the generosity of the great Mr. Pete Shoop, my dad and I got front row seats to watch the Fighting Irish hockey team take out the favored Michigan Wolverines in the JACC. That September was my first Notre Dame football game, where the Fighting Irish football team took out the favored (and Rose Bowl-bound) Michigan Wolverines. In September of 2005, in Charlie Weis' second game as Irish head coach, Notre Dame went into the Big House and defeated the favored Michigan Wolverines.

This was a trend I would have been happy to see continue, but sadly, 2006 happened. Then 2007, and a pair of Yakety Sax montages later, the Michigan football program had asserted its dominance over the Irish in rather dramatic, quarterback-destroying fashion. The 2008 game in South Bend was some salve on the wound (a 21-0 lead ten minutes into the game tends to help mend broken hearts to some degree), but it wasn't quite enough. For the sake of exorcising the slapstick montage-worthy demons of '06 and '07, Notre Dame needs another win at Ann Arbor.

This request seemed considerably easier to fill with the turmoil surrounding the program after a 3-9 season, but the over-practicing allegations served as a circle-the-wagons/cry-at-a-press-conference opportunity for the maize and blue, and they handled Western Michigan with ease in their opener. The Forcier/Robinson combination at quarterback appears to be leaps and bounds better than everything trotted out under center last year, and things seem to be heading towards the usual Rich Rodriguez second year bounce.

There are a number of barriers between Notre Dame and a winning streak against Michigan, first and foremost being this game is being played on the road. On one hand, I'm not particularly worried about the crowd, but this Irish team was dreadful away from the friendly confines last year. This may have conveniently coincided with playing some of their tougher opponents (Southern Cal, Boston College, Michigan State) outside of South Bend, but still, the 2-4 record isn't great. What's even worse is the amazing -17 turnover differential, versus +12 at home (amazingly, Notre Dame didn't turn the ball over once in the losses to Syracuse and Pitt). You'd like to think that a junior quarterback bookended by two senior tackles would equal safety and security, but I can't shake the images of 2007 from my mind, and until Clausen and company prove they can move the ball down the field without firing a round or two into their feet, I'll just continue being nervous, thanks.

The biggest problem for the Irish is going to be in the trenches. To keep the offense moving, they'll need to contain the speed, size and talent of the Wolverine front. Brandon Graham is likely a future first round pick, and he's joined by freshmen Mike Martin (red shirt) and Craig Roh (true). There's some beef up there with a history of terrorizing Notre Dame quarterbacks, and this will be one of the tougher tests for the Irish offensive line after doing a very capable job in dealing with Nevada's pass rush. I don't think it's a stretch to say the caliber of athlete on Michigan might be slightly more polished than those hailing from the great city of Reno. We will address this later, but unless the Michigan secondary has gotten considerably better, I'm comfortable with the passing attack being able to pick them apart if there's time for Clausen to make any sort of read. If the line starts breaking down and chaos reigns, cover your eyes, as it's going to be a long, drunk afternoon for the Irish faithful.

Concern for the Irish on the other side of the ball stems from the Michigan offense, which is not dissimilar to Nevada's. Last year the Wolverines moved the ball well despite an early deficit, and considering the yards-per-carry achieved by the Wolf Pack, this should be a continued concern for Tenuta's defense. Not only was last year not a ringing success for the Irish defense (although Corwin Brown was more involved at that point), Pat White and Owen Schmitt ran wild down in the Gator Bowl in 2007, another instance of Rodriguez's offense besting Tentua's defense. At this point, Michigan fans can only dream of having a backfield combination that potent, but they certainly laid the hammer down on a Yellow Jacket defense that had been awfully stingy up until that point.

In the game last September, the Wolverines outgained the Irish by well over a hundred yards, and while the yards per rush wasn't overly intimidating (3.8), it was the penalties (7 for 79) and turnovers (6) that doomed the visitors. If you were to allow that the Forcier/Robinson combination is an improvement over Sheridan/Threet - and I think most UM fans are nodding their head in emphatic support of this concept now - then it doesn't seem like a leap to assume that the Wolverine offense will be even more potent this time around. When you factor in the bounce that comes in the second year of the RichRod system, the Irish defense could have its hands full. If the Irish don't tackle or take poor angles, there will be many chances for Michigan running backs to replicate Sam McGuffie's offensive outbursts last year.

But what about advantages for the Irish? Considering the talented speed that resides at the top of the defensive depth chart, I think this year's team is considerably more suited to deal with Rodriguez's spread and shred than last year's. Considering they used three wide receivers the majority of the time in the opener, Notre Dame has the ability to go nickel or dime and counter with Teo, Filer, Fleming, Brown and/or Walls, cutting off running lanes and chasing down quarterbacks when they escape the pocket. Nevada proved you could have success rushing at the interior of the Irish defensive line from the spread, but that should give Ethan Johnson, Ian Williams and the rest of a line a lot of lessons of what is coming at them. Simply put, I'm extremely comfortable if Notre Dame has to go nickel or dime, and would even prefer that versus the base 4-3.

Despite his great play in the opener, this is really Forcier's first start against a real defense (only limited disrespect to Western Michigan intended here, but they were returning 3 starters from a rather mediocre unit last year). Even though he'll be at home, Tate (or Denard Robinson, and hopefully Nick Sheridan) is going to have to deal with Tenuta blitzes nearly every play, which is something I don't think he saw in high school or in the spring scrimmage. While an experienced quarterback like White (only a sophomore at the time, but with almost a season and a half in the system under his belt) was able to take advantage of Georgia Tech, I would be surprised if Forcier was able to find running lanes, locate his hot routes and audible at the line with the same effectiveness. I could very well be wrong, but in the match-up of a freshman quarterback versus Jon Tenuta's defense, I'll take Tenuta until the freshmen prove otherwise. Colin Kaepernick - a very, very good dual-threat QB - looked completely out of sorts Saturday, and some of that has to be chalked up to the gentlemen in blue sprinting at him every play. The Irish needed some luck to get the shutout, but they still did a solid job containing one of the more potent offenses in the country.

For the Notre Dame offense, it really just comes down to providing protection for Clausen, as I don't see a way the Michigan secondary can contain the combination of Tate, Floyd, Rudolph and whoever ends up in the slot. From MGo a bit earlier in the week:

What happens when Notre Dame goes to three-wide?

Nothing. Michigan spent the entire day its base set and has no corner depth. They do have guys on the edge who can cover Robby "That's Racist" Parris or whoever; it's not like Notre Dame's backup WRs are speed demons.

Despite the fact I have no idea who would end up in the slot in that situation (a healthy Kamara could bump Tate there, Parris, Evans), I love the idea of Michigan just staying in their base defense. When Notre Dame had success against the Wolverines on offense in the Quinn/Weis years, it came almost exclusively from spreading the defense out and taking whatever was there (the opening drive in the 2005 game, the last drive of the first half in the 2006 game). If Michigan's defensive plan revolves around Stevie Brown trying to check Shaq Evans or Robbie Parris for four quarters, the Irish should score points in droves, unless....

Yes, of course, none of that matters unless the Irish can keep Graham and his friends from mauling Jimmy all day. Last year the line was successful in keeping Jimmy intact, but the early deficit and wet conditions in the second half meant that there wasn't a lot of drop-back passing late. Football almost always comes down to line play, and this game will be no different. It becomes even more important because Michigan's secondary doesn't have the depth or size to deal with the Irish skill positions (Rudolph has at least six inches on any safety he might encounter downfield), so again, please block those large gentlemen up front and let the cards fall where they may.

Considering how Notre Dame vs. Michigan was relegated to a dark match the last few years, it's nice to see it back at the top of the card after the two non-embarrassing opening weekend performances. This game is always big to both programs, but when you consider the light schedule tomorrow, a lot of people will be taking a lengthy look at both teams. It would be nice if the Irish could silence a few more critics, but just like everything else this season, they're going to have to earn it.

We knew we'd learn a lot about this year's team after the opening trio of games, but I feel like this trip to Ann Arbor looms particularly large. A win? It would give both Weis and Clausen a winning record against Michigan, and let the Irish program take another step in the correct direction, all while causing a great deal of pain for one of the Irish's most hated rivals. A loss? One more year of ridicule, sadness and a bunch of questions going into Michigan State. Personally, I'd prefer the former, and I'm not sure my heart could take the latter.

11 Things I Want To See In the Big 10 During 2009, Part 2

grahamfiller10 — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:29:45 -0000

#8 - I want RichRod's Spread to succeed spectacularly

Because this offense can be so sexy. Why do I love the RichRod Spread? It's different - we're not used to seeing fullback dives utilized effectively or the option attack at a major school. Last year's struggles were well documented as the Wolverines possessed the Big 10's worst offense...(And if you need slightly more detail about the horror, here's an early season assessment)

Tate Forcier's Spring Game performance shows an 18 year old who is more confident and prepared than anyone who called signals for the Wolverines in 2008 and as most everyone in the blogosphere believes, a decent quarterback will make a 100% improvement to the Spread scheme. One thing to mention - the players at West Virginia were no scrubs. Pat White just got drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft, Steve Slaton is a starting halfback for the Houston Texans, Owen Schmitt will start at fullback for the Seattle Seahawks this year...So yeah, the system worked, but the skill players were exceptional. Running back Brandon Minor looks to be a stud in the making, while the WR's weren't given enough substantive opportunites to show their skill last year.

#7 - I want Iowa fans to alienate another Big 10 fanbase

Minnesota...Just Northwestern...Penn State...Who's next?

That's just me, running your ass over...

Originally my money was on Wisconsin. All the signs are there. Not only do Badger take their football way too seriously, the state is full of decent, loyal, down to earth humans who won't be able to put up with the vile insults if Iowa wins this year in Madison. But BHGP rebuffed that idea...so I guess we will see which lucky Big 10 school gets pulled into a yearlong scuffle full of mesage board attacks and "55-0"ish insults by those incendiary Iowa fans. Nothing like a good ol' rivalry started out of thin air.

#6 - I want Northwestern to sell out Ryan Field

LTP brought this up over and over, as does every Northwestern hater, but it's sad to see 30k people attend Ryan field for a team that will be ranked in the Top 20 this year. We all know the reasons for the lack of fans (smaller school, students are from all over the country, not a huge Chicago fan base, more of an academic tradition). Will another 9 or 10 win season begin pulling the masses in? Do the masses exist?

#5 - I want people to stop talking about how the Big 10 sucks

For two reasons.

First, every conference had their ups and downs last year. The Big 12 spent the entire year being feted before people discovered Big 12 defenses were less than solid. The SEC's 2008 rep was salvaged with a 5-2 bowl record, not to mention big bowl wins over Texas Tech and Georgia Tech. But disappointing regular seasons by Georgia and Auburn showed a SEC lacking the depth we've become accustomed to.

Second, it's such a passe statement/argument to make because frankly, arguing over conference supremacy is a product of the screwed up BCS system anyways. Sure, it's a recruiting tool and a handy argument to pull out when visiting friends in other parts of the country...And it makes for editorial filling space when a Big 10 team shows up undefeated in the middle of the season, just in time for idiot columnists pull their tired cliches out of the bag. But it's worthless. Win your conference, win your out of conference games, welcome to the National Championship game. Except Boise State or Utah. Sorry.