SB Nation - Will Judson

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:30:09 -0000

Moving right along in the Mizzou 2009 series...

Secondary

I think that was Ricky Steamboat's finishing move.

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.)
CB Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.)
S Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)
S Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.)
CB Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)
S Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)
CB Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
CB Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)
CB Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Jr.)
S Del Howard (5'11, 200, Sr.)

1. How bad was the Mizzou secondary in 2008? I won't spend a lot of time on this one, simply because I've gone over it before. Factoring in junk-time yards and the quality of the offenses Missouri was facing, they simply weren't nearly as bad as people want to think. Let's take a quick look back at the schedule, using good old S&P as a guide:

Opponent	Season Passing S&P	S&P vs Missouri*	Diff
vs Illinois	0.906	0.758	-0.148
Nevada	0.812	0.734	-0.078
Buffalo	0.855	0.827	-0.028
@ Nebraska	1.013	0.920	-0.097
Oklahoma State	1.083	0.950	-0.133
@ Texas	1.096	1.212	+0.116
Colorado	0.666	0.160	-0.506
@ Baylor	0.805	0.946	+0.141
Kansas State	0.853	0.195	-0.658
@ Iowa State	0.808	0.897	+0.089
vs Kansas	0.939	0.967	+0.028
vs Oklahoma	1.195	1.212	+0.017
vs Northwestern	0.812	0.792	-0.020

* Now's a good time to remind you that these are close-game ratings, meaning the only plays accounted for here took place when the score was within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and under 17 in Q3/Q4. Pretty much all of Illinois' passing success, for instance, took place when Mizzou was up a large amount, and when Illinois cut the lead back inside two possessions, the defense locked down again.

So Missouri held eight of 13 FBS opponents (no SEMO here) below their season rates, and in the case of a couple opponents--Colorado and K-State--completely shut them down. They gave up two huge passes to Northwestern and otherwise limited them to sometimes inefficient slant routes.

Now, one reason people are talking about how atrocious the Mizzou pass defense was in 2008 goes beyond the "117th in passing yardage" thing (which I've pretty thoroughly debunked by this time, I think). It's that they seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Of the five opponents who achieved an S&P above their season average, four came in the last six games, and they all came in the last eight. Granted, only two teams (Texas, Baylor) far exceeded their season averages--everybody else exceeded in very minor terms, but still, the Mizzou pass defense went from far above average early on (the perception was still hurt by those bombs to Will Judson against Illinois) to average or slightly below-average later in the season. Clearly that will need to change.

So here's my question: I don't think any of us are too worried about the secondary, at least not worried about them being any worse than last year. But if they actually weren't bad last year, can we still expect a comparative level of play? Can Kevin Rutland v2009 cover better than Castine Bridges (and Tru Vaughns, and Kevin Rutland) v2008? Can Carl Gettis do better in the nickel back role than William Moore did?

Mizzou's passing yardage numbers should improve this year for a number of reasons: 1) they probably won't be far ahead of teams as much, 2) they might be running the ball more (and therefore potentially eating more clock), 3) it's hard to get much worse than last year's yardage numbers, 4) et cetera. But will their S&P and S&P+ improve? Can they be counted on to at least hold teams to their season average in this regard? Are they going to be reliant on the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter to get good pressure on the QB and make their lives easier? We'll see.

2. Is somebody going to overtake Hardy Ricks in the starting lineup? Sub-question: how valuable is experience? I honestly have nothing against Hardy Ricks. I think he's a good hitter, he's a damn solid backup, and he seems like a good kid. I advocated for him to move to safety in 2007, thought that would suit his style of play better, and I still think that. But I just don't trust that he's good enough to be the starter in a decent secondary. I don't think his cover skills are up to snuff, even for a safety, and I'll feel much better about the defense if Jarrell Harrison or Jasper Simmons is able to overtake him as a starter by September 5.

And no, I do not know anything about the quality of play Harrison or Simmons are capable of delivering, but I think I know Ricks pretty well by now--he's a known quantity--and I'm really hoping that either or both of them are better.

3. Should Carl Gettis move to safety? This is not really a realistic question...just a thought. We've read for the last couple of weeks that this is the deepest set of cornerbacks Gary Pinkel has had at Missouri, how guys like Trey Hobson, Kip Edwards, Robert Steeples and Munir Prince are virtually interchangeable and how any of them would have started for Pinkel's first few teams. Meanwhile, at safety, Ricks is fighting with two JUCO transfers (Harrison, Simmons) for a spot in the starting lineup. And in the nickel alignment, Gettis plays the roaming nickel back. If he's already putting together some safety-esque skills, and Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince are better at CB than Ricks is at safety, then shouldn't this be a move we're considering?

Now...that's as far as I'm going with the thought. It's a waste of time to make suggestions or speculate about position changes when a) we're not at every practice (for all we know, Ricks could have turned into an all-conference safety over the offseason...though I think I'll go ahead and doubt that), and b) we're not the coaches, but it's certainly an idea that's been floating around in my head the last couple of weeks. I'd take my chances with a (short) safety combo of Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, with Kevin Rutland and the winner of the Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince derby starting at CB.

An early look at Illinois.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

This doesn't look like Pasadena anymore.

Browse more photos »

Illinois Fighting Illini

Last meeting: 10/18/2008 (Illinois 55, IU 13 in Champaign)
Last IU win: 10/7/2006 (IU 34, Illinois 32 in Champaign)
Series: Illinois leads 43-20-2
Coach: Ron Zook (4th year, 18-30)

Perhaps no program has seen a wider variety of highs and lows over the last decade than Illinois. Ron Zook's four years at Illinois include three losing seasons, but the winning season included a shocking win at Ohio State and a Rose Bowl appearance. His predecessor, Ron Turner, had six losing seasons in his eight years, but his two winning seasons included a Big Ten title in 2001 and road wins over Ohio State and Michigan in 1999. In the last twelve years, Illinois has been to two BCS bowls but has three 0-8 conference seasons. I doubt any other program can say that. Unfortunately for Illinois, the dual personalities persisted in 2008. A season after making their first trip to Pasadena since 1983-84, the Illini fell back to 5-7.

Here is Illinois's NCAA stat summary and the Statsheet page. The Illini's overall numbers were thoroughly mediocre, with few really good or really bad numbers standing out. On the season, despite finishing 5-7, the Illini were +25 in points scored. The Illini were #19 in the nation with 438 yards per game and allowed 350 yards per game on defense. They averaged 8.2 yards per passing play (#16 nationally) and passed for 269 yards per game). Juice Williams replicated his 57 percent completions from 2007 and threw an handful more touchdown passes. Given that information, few would have predicted such a step back for Illinois. After a horrid freshman year that led to an indefensible amount of publicity, Williams became a passable passer. Unfortunately for Illinois, numbers that were good enough for the Rose Bowl in 2007 weren't worth as much in 2008.

Who else is back for the Illini? A website called Isportsweb.com has a comprehensive preview of the Illinois offense, defense, and special teams. Arrelious Benn, by far the Illini's leading receiver with 1055 yards but only 3 TDs, is back. The Illini lost Will Judson but return leading TD receiver Jeff Cumberland. Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui also returns, as does most of the offensive line. Williams led the Illini in rushing last year, but literally every player who gained a rushing yard for Illinois in 2008 is on the 2009 roster.

On defense, the Illini better hope that Ron Zook's recruiting has been as excellent as reported. Illinois replaces its entire starting defensive line in 2009. The Illini return two starters in the secondary and one at linebacker. In other words, the Illini offense may have to carry the load this season.

IU's 2008 game against Illinois was one of the low points of a really bad season. IU lost badly, 55-13 in Champaign, in front of a prime time audience on the Big Ten Network. Here's what I said then:

Illinois nearly doubled up IU in total offense (563-313); averaged 6.6 yards per carry to IU's 3.2; passed for 271 yards to IU 172; averaged 8.5 yards per play to IU's 4.3; and turned the ball over once to IU's twice. Last year, I made quite a bit of fun of Juice Williams, so it's only fair to note that he is much improved as a passer, and his 72.7 completion percentage last night was his career best. Other thoughts:

The Seven Blocks of Limestone are more like Seven Bags of Mulch. Ben Chappell was sacked four times in his first college start, and the O-line's failures continue to hurt every aspect of the offense.

While the line takes its share of the blame, Chappell, filling in for injured Kellen Lewis, completed only 10 of his 29 pass attempts against a previously mediocre Illinois defense.

Austin Starr and Greg Middleton need not worry about repeating as All-Americans this season.

What in the world possessed Bill Lynch to kick field goals down 34-7 and 48-10? I suppose I can understand the last one, trying to restore Starr's confidence. But a 20 point deficit in the middle of the third quarter is not insurmountable. Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying IU would have won if Lynch had gone for it there--we probably wouldn't have gotten the touchdown. But midway through the third quarter is too early to wave the white flag.

So, this might be an interesting game. Illinois is a talented team that probably was a bit better last season than the record would suggest. Still, the Hoosiers have lost two in a row in this series since Austin Starr's game winning field goal at Champaign in 2006. Hopefully, IU can bounce back.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Offense

Bill C. — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

If Zook wants to keep throwing out first pitches, he may want to start winning some more games soon...not impossible, but not much margin for error.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Did you get as many chills reading that subject line as I got typing it? Oh baby. It's time once again to begin our week-to-week BTBS previews of Mizzou's 11 FBS opponents (and the three other Big 12 South teams too).

We start with Mizzou's September 5 opponent, and possibly the most confounding team in the country to analyze.

2008

Record: 5-7 (3-5)
S&P+: #25
Scoring Margin: 344-319 (+25)
Conference Scoring Margin: 218-206 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Iowa (#13), @ MIchigan (#68), Indiana (#71), UL-Lafayette (#85), Eastern Illinois (FCS)
Losses: @ Penn State (#6), Ohio State (#8), vs Missouri (#10), @ Northwestern (#44), Minnesota (#63), @ Wisconsin (#64), Western Michigan (#106)

Yes, we know that it was rather ridiculous that Illinois made the Rose Bowl in 2007, but Illinois did still manage 9 wins that season, a nice, upwardly mobile change in zip code after winning a combined eight games in the previous four seasons. But a drop from 9-4 to 5-7 was both rather surprising and unacceptable. It's one thing to lose to top teams (Illinois played four of the top 13 teams according to S&P+, even beating Iowa); it's quite another to beat only one team with any sort of winning record and go 3-3 against teams ranked 50th or worse. Any sort of goodwill Ron Zook earned with 2007 likely went flying out the window in 2008. And the schedule gets much more dicey in 2009. Okay, maybe not dicey...but full of tossups.

Coaching

Head Coach: Ron Zook
Record at Illinois: 18-30 (conference: 10-22)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): -4.0 wins (-0.6/year)

According to Rivals.com, here are the recruiting rankings for Ron Zook's six recruiting classes at Florida and Illinois (excluding 2002 and 2005, where Zook took the given job late in the recruiting year): #2, #7, #30, #20, #23, #35. He hasn't done as good a job recruiting at Illinois as he did at Florida (where I could take over and lock down a Top 15 class), but still, he and his staff have brought in quite a bit of highly-touted talent in his coaching career.

Now here's his record as head coach from 2002-08: 41-45. He inherited a Florida team that had gone 103-23-1 in the past decade (a win% of .815) and went 23-15 (.605) in Gainesville. In the four years since he left, Florida's gone 44-9 (.830). Now, in four years in Champaign, Zook has managed exactly one winning season and gone 18-30. Yes, the Rose Bowl was nice, but one has to wonder exactly how much time he has left to prove that he can do more than attract decent talent to play for him. One would think that eventually you need to consistently win with that talent.

How does one evaluate a coach's performance with numbers? At least, beyond final records and rankings? You can get at part of the story by looking at a team's record versus their Pythagorean record. What the hell is that? Well, it started as a Bill James baseball measure (what didn't?), taking a team's run totals (both for and against) and projecting the record a team should have from those numbers. It is a good method for showing which teams might be performing well if used midway through the season (be on the lookout for the ~~Devil~~ Rays, by the way--they're not going to be hovering around .500 for long with their run differential), or which teams might be due a bounceback season the next year.

Aside from using different multipliers, it works reasonably the same for football. In theory, most coaches' records should end up right around the +/-0 mark (one year they overachieve their Pythagorean record, the next they underachieve); over time, you can get a good idea of which's coach's teams constantly overachieve or underachieve based on points scored.

So what is Zook's career Pythagorean record? 45-41. Actual record? 41-45. So his teams have done about four games worse than they should, or -0.6 per year. As comparison, Gary Pinkel is -0.1/year, Jim Tressel is +1.0/year, Rich Rodriguez is +0.6/year, and Joe Paterno (over the last seven years) is, strangely, -0.6/year.

Now, none of this conclusively proves that Zook is a good or bad coach--as a whole, Zook doesn't have a wonderful reputation, and these numbers don't prove that perception wrong. But whether he's a truly good or bad coach, he probably needs to start winning this year.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 112.78 (#31)
Success Rate+: 107.74 (#34)
PPP+: 120.88 (#29)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 116.24 (#18)
Passing Downs S&P+: 120.71 (#24)

Redzone S&P+: 110.62 (#39)

Q1 S&P+: 133.72 (#10)
Q2 S&P+: 94.61 (#84)
Q3 S&P+: 132.22 (#9)
Q4 S&P+: 122.71 (#16)

1st Down S&P+: 119.96 (#17)
2nd Down S&P+: 124.41 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 109.85 (#41)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 109.84 (#44)
Rushing SR+: 111.98 (#30)
Rushing PPP+: 108.06 (#56)

Standard Downs: 115.45 (#26)
Passing Downs: 111.13 (#48)

Redzone: 107.07 (#51)

Line Yards+: 110.82 (#29)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.82 (#24)
Passing SR+: 103.80 (#45)
Passing PPP+: 131.89 (#17)

Standard Downs: 118.39 (#20)
Passing Downs: 124.91 (#22)

Redzone: 114.06 (#37)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 6.1% (#68)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

Lots of numbers there, I realize. What do they mean for the most part? In a majority of categories, lllinois ranked between about #25 and #50. Good, not great. The most interesting splits are found in the by-quarter and by-down numbers. Illinois had a great offense in Q1, Q3, and Q4...and were terrible in Q2. Eh? How does that happen? Usually when I look at numbers that are great in the first quarter and bad in the second, I surmise that a coach's gameplanning was good, but the in-game adjustments were lacking.

One encouraging trend for Illinois: their first- and second-down numbers were strong, but they were lacking on third downs. At the pro level, third down success is the last thing to come when a team is learning how to win. That could be good for Illinois in 2009, but...well, they weren't extremely young in 2008, at least not at the QB position. How much development does Juice still have to make?

Quarterback

Will Andre Ware's favorite quarterback finally put all the pieces together his senior year? (via)

2008 Unit Ranking: #22 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Juice Williams (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Eddie McGee (6'4, 210, Jr.)
Jacob Charest (6'4, 220, RSFr.)

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

As you will see throughout the rest of the summer, I've come up with rough ways to rank individual units*--in the case of Juice, it's probably the best possible way to evaluate him without all the contradicting information our eyeballs tell us about him. In the end, the numbers ranked Illinois' QB unit (of which Juice was about 98%) as the 21st unit in the country, 3rd in the Big Ten behind Penn State (#4) and Ohio State (#17) and ahead of Iowa (#34), Minnesota (#39), and Wisconsin (#41). That sounds about right; while the offense wasn't quite as good as it seemed it could be, defensive breakdowns were the bigger problem in 2008.

* I'm sure I'll tweak how I rate them a million times, but I'd say I've already got better methods than these people do.

Oh, and about Eddie McGee. Look, I realize that we Missouri fans are the biggest McGee proponents as there is, but...he's simply not as good as Juice Williams. Yes, he caught Mizzou by surprise in 2007 and almost led a dramatic comeback, but since then, mostly in mop-up time, he's 17-for-33 for 246 yards, a TD, and an INT. Certainly not terrible, but not better than Juice. That said, I love the "Eddie > Juice" meme, and we should absolutely keep it up.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #95 in the nation (#11 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jason Ford (6'0, 230, So.)
Daniel Dufrene (5'11, 205, Sr.)
Mikel Leshoure (6'0, 225, So.)
Troy Pollard (5'8, 185, So.)

Here's where the numbers tell a pretty cruel tale. Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP (EqPts Per Play) despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. What's POE? A new stat, of course! It stands for Points Over Expected. It takes the "expected" value of every carry a team's RBs made based on the opponent's rush defense stats and compares it to the actual output. For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. Combined with good Line Yards figures (meaning the O-line was doing its job), this unit should have produced much more than it did, hence the putrid ratings.

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Are the numbers right? Is he maybe overrated? Sure doesn't seem like it watching him...

2008 Unit Ranking: #24 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Arrelious Benn (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Jeff Cumberland (6'5, 255, Sr.)
Jarred Fayson (6'0, 215, Jr.)
A.J. Jenkins (6'0, 185, So.)
Chris Duvalt (5'11, 175, Sr.)
Terry Hawthorne (6'0, 170, Fr.)
Fred Sykes (6'0, 185, So.)
Cordale Scott (6'3, 215, So.)
Chris James (6'0, 195, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Michael Hoomanawanui (6'5, 270, Sr.)
Hubie Graham (6'4, 245, So.)
London Davis (6'4, 255, RSFr.)

I still have some work to do on a good Receiver POE number. In its infancy, the number doesn't really think too highly of Arrelious Benn. It says that, over 67 receptions, he only produced 13.80 Points Over Expected, good for only #77 among eligible WRs. It says that of the passes he caught, he really didn't do anything with them beyond what the average receiver would do.

Now, there's a skill in and of itself for catching that many passes, and I will continue to tweak the formulas, but in the meantime Benn only comes in at #77. However, his pass-catching mate, TE-turned-WR-even-though-he-looks-like-a-TE Jeff Cumberland came in at #83, at 13.12, in only 20 catches. This makes a bit of sense, in that Cumberland managed four touchdowns in his 20 catches, while Benn somehow only had three all year (and as we've seen, yards gained are worth more EqPts close to the endzone). Meanwhile, since-departed Will Judson came in at #104.

Having three receivers in the top 104 gave Illinois a pretty decently-ranked WR corps even if the formulas didn't like Benn all that much. Benn and Cumberland return, into Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #37 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jon Asamoah (G, 6'5, 315, Sr.)
Jeff Allen (T, 6'5, 310, So.)
Eric Block (C, 6'3, 290, Sr.)
Corey Lewis (T, 6'6, 315, So.)
Graham Pocic (G, 6'7, 320, RSFr.)
Craig Wilson (T, 6'5, 320, So.)
Jack Cornell (G, 6'5, 315, So.)
Tyler Sanders (C, 6'5, 295, RSFr.)
Ryan Palmer (T, 6'7, 310, Jr.)
Randall Hunt (G, 6'6, 320, Jr.)

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Summary

Add all this up, and what do we have? A Top 20 quarterback, a Top 20 receiving corps, a Top 50 offensive line, and poor running backs. That gives them distinct advantages and disadvantages against what we think we know about the Mizzou defense. Mizzou's inexperienced-but-athletic defensive line should be able to hold its own against UI's OLs, and the Tiger LB corps could dominate UI's RBs (much like they did last year). But a good WR corps should be able to find holes in a better-but-younger Mizzou secondary, and an experienced QB in Juice Williams should be able to make a few things happen against an overall young Mizzou defense.

Poll

Biggest problem for the Mizzou defense?

QB Juice Williams

43 votes

RBs Dufrene, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard

3 votes

WRs Benn, Cumberland, and Fayson, and TE Hoomanawanui

41 votes

An offensive line led by a solid interior

5 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 16:00:06 -0000

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Nebraska	Opponents		Missouri	Opponents
59.4%		% Close	51.9%
45.7%	54.3%	Field Position %	58.5%	41.5%
71.2%	67.4%	Leverage %	76.2%	66.6%

		Total
243	282	Plays	290	317
114.58	81.79	EqPts	163.85	87.14
46.5%	38.7%	Success Rate	58.3%	38.8%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.57	0.27
0.937	0.677	S&P	1.148	0.663

		Close Games
141	171	Plays	182	133
67.07	49.82	EqPts	108.33	35.11
44.7%	40.9%	Success Rate	59.9%	37.6%
0.48	0.29	PPP	0.60	0.26
0.922	0.701	S&P	1.194	0.640

		Rushing
46.94	36.55	EqPts	60.64	21.96
42.4%	36.3%	Success Rate	51.9%	37.4%
0.38	0.27	PPP	0.47	0.17
0.800	0.634	S&P	0.989	0.542
2.82	2.52	Line Yds/carry	3.31	2.23

		Passing
67.64	45.24	EqPts	103.21	65.18
50.8%	40.8%	Success Rate	63.4%	39.8%
0.57	0.31	PPP	0.64	0.35
1.082	0.716	S&P	1.275	0.748

		Non-Passing Downs
54.3%	45.3%	Success Rate	62.9%	44.5%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.31
1.071	0.766	S&P	1.228	0.754

		Passing Downs
27.1%	25.0%	Success Rate	43.5%	27.4%
0.33	0.24	PPP	0.46	0.21
0.605	0.491	S&P	0.890	0.481

		Turnovers
7	6	Total	5	7
11.66	18.12	Points Lost	14.68	18.27
23.69	18.12	Points Given	12.31	33.76
35.35	36.24	Total T/O Pts	26.99	52.03
+0.89	-0.89	T/O Pts Margin	+25.04	-25.04

		Q1
46.8%	42.9%	Success Rate	60.8%	41.5%
0.49	0.30	PPP	0.65	0.25
0.957	0.727	S&P	1.254	0.667

		Q2
42.6%	40.8%	Success Rate	62.0%	38.6%
0.45	0.27	PPP	0.65	0.26
0.880	0.680	S&P	1.272	0.650

		Q3
49.1%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	37.8%
0.49	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.33
0.982	0.779	S&P	1.212	0.704

		Q4
47.7%	25.0%	Success Rate	46.8%	37.8%
0.46	0.28	PPP	0.32	0.26
0.932	0.528	S&P	0.789	0.638

		1st Downs
55.3%	41.5%	Success Rate	61.1%	43.3%
0.59	0.31	PPP	1.01	0.34
1.138	0.723	S&P	1.623	0.773

		2nd Downs
38.9%	34.8%	Success Rate	60.2%	34.0%
0.41	0.21	PPP	0.53	0.22
0.800	0.561	S&P	1.131	0.561

		3rd Downs
35.6%	38.5%	Success Rate	48.8%	34.3%
0.29	0.32	PPP	0.45	0.21
0.642	0.708	S&P	0.936	0.553

Thoughts...

Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Mizzou-Nebraska Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 21.02
Projection #1: 28.74
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts+: 78.53
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 20.64

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 24.69

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0. Mizzou's rushing offense is better in '08, and so is NU's rushing defense. I'm bumping this down a hair, but I still think we're seeing a window of major opportunity here. Derrick Washington could have a monster day.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.31
Projection #1: 20.87
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts+: 102.29
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 17.99

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 19.43

Adjusted for 2008: 20.0. Again, NU's pass defense is better than last year's...but Mizzou's pass offense has gone to a new level. If NU can't get pressure on Chase Daniel from its D-line, they're dead meat.

Nebraska Rushing

2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts+: 99.81
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 8.27
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 10.03
Projection #2: 8.23

Projected Nebraska Rushing Output: 8.25

Adjusted for 2008: 7.0. NU's got little to no running game this year. And Mizzou's just as good at stopping it.

Nebraska Passing

2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts+: 169.46
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 20.57
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.89
Projection #2: 19.14

Projected Nebraska Passing Output: 19.86

Adjusted for 2008: 18.0. Here's the deal: NU averaged such high passing numbers in '07 because they were playing from behind so much. Ironically, the fact that they're better at passing in '08 means they probably won't be averaging as many Passing EqPts--games will be closer, and they won't be letting 'er rip quite as much.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 44.0, Nebraska 25.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nebraska 28.

Special Teams

Lincoln was the place where Missouri fans discovered what kind of kicker they were going to have for the next couple years. The one bright spot of the '06 debacle in Lincoln was Jeff Wolfert crushing a 54-yard FG at the end of the first half...to cut NU's lead to 27-6. Since then, Wolfert's missed almost nothing. He leads what is, despite the kick return TD given up against Buffalo a week and a half ago, the best special teams unit Mizzou's had in recent history, possibly ever. They've got their most accurate kicker ever, their best kick/punt returner ever, and a pretty solid punter.

Meanwhile, NU's unit is far from chopped liver. After Niles Paul got a bit of fumbleitis against Virginia Tech, Nate Swift stepped in and took a punt back 80+ yards for a TD. Meanwhile, primary kick return man Niles Paul also has a TD (a big one too--it broke open the way-too-tight San Jose State game) in this young season. Alex Henery is a solid kicker as well. The one problem: so far they're averaging 27.5 net yards per punt. That's horrendous. Granted, that includes last week's blocked punt, but Dan Titchener's 38.0 average (and propensity to give up some returns) doesn't cut it. Mizzou has a special teams advantage here, but it's not a gigantic one.

Key Players: Nebraska

WR Todd Peterson, WR Menelik Holt, TE Mike McNeil...every receiver besides Nate Swift

Back in 2005, freshman Nate Swift was Zac Taylor's go-to WR in a mediocre pass attack. 2006 and 2007 were dominated by JUCO transfer Maurice Purify, but now Swift is back to being the #1 guy. Problem is, Mizzou's still pretty darn good at stopping #1 receiving threats (thank you, Carl Gettis). So someone on the Husker offense needs to step up and play the role Ernest Jackson (Buffalo's #2 WR, who scored 3 TDs) played for Buffalo or Will Judson (177 yards, 2 TDs) played for Illinois. Problem is, the only NU WR who's caught a pass of more than 25 yards is Swift. NU's still good at the screen game--RBs Quentin Castille, Roy Helu Jr. and Marlon Lucky (remember him?) all have had at least one long reception--but call me crazy...NU's not going to beat Mizzou by screening them to death. Somebody's going to have to come up with a huge play or two, and it might be Jeremy Maclin's former Kirkwood teammate, TE Mike McNeill.

Or, you know, it might be nobody at all.

RB Marlon Lucky

I wanted to name anybody else but Lucky, but there are a lot of known quantities here. Joe Ganz is going to be pretty solid. Nate Swift is going to make a few catches. The NU O-line is going to be decent but not spectacular. Really, the key ingredient to NU being able to keep up with Mizzou on the scoreboard simply has to be Marlon Lucky. The preseason All-Big 12 RB is barely on pace for 800 rushing yards this year, and despite a 58-yard run earlier in the season, he's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry. While his backup, Roy Helu Jr., has rushed for almost as many yards on 15 fewer carries, Lucky's the workhorse, and he just has to have a big game.

DE Zach Potter

We've covered the "How to beat Mizzou" blueprint on RMN many times. The key ingredient isn't a great secondary or explosive offense--it's having great DEs. You have to be able to generate pressure on Chase Daniel without blitzing, and Potter is NU's only hope of success in that regard. He's having a solid season so far--5.0 TFL's, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 2 QB hurries; he might need all of that on Saturday. He's a big dude (6'7, 285), and he's obviously pretty athletic...now he just needs to have a career game at exactly the right time. Unfortunately for him, Mizzou's starting OT's, Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher, have been dominant thus far.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Usually, if I've already picked a DL here, I'd aim for an LB or DB with the second defensive slot. It is, after all, important that NU's DBs cover better than they have in their lives even if the D-line IS generating some pressure. But a) the LBs and DBs just don't really matter if the NU DL doesn't first dominate, and b) Suh's probably NU's most talented defensive player (other than Potter, anyway). The best-case scenario is that the 6'4, 300-pound nose tackle teams with Potter to blow up one side of Mizzou's O-line and harrass all night. I'll believe it when I see it--Suh completely and totally disappeared against good teams last year--but it's something to watch.

Key Players: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

It's quite possible that Nebraska, knowing it doesn't have the most wonderful secondary in the world, plays the mushroom cloud style of defense that teams like Arkansas and Kansas attempted against Mizzou last year, rushing 2-3 guys and dropping 8-9 into coverage. If Nebraska attempts this, it will open up humongous holes for Derrick Washington, who has already proven himself to be a better overall weapon than Tony Temple. Temple was a wonderful slasher, waiting for a hole and darting through it. Washington can do that, but he doesn't really need to wait for a hole. He can lower his head into the back of a pile and squirt through the other side for 6 yards; he can also break away for a TD at any time. Washington is the reason it seems impossible to stop Missouri right now, and if he has a big game in Lincoln, I don't see how Missouri loses unless they're fumbling the ball left and right.

OT's Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher

This one's easy--if Zach Potter and Ndamukong Suh are the keys for Nebraska, the guys blocking them (sort of) are keys for Mizzou. Granted, Suh's an NT, so he'll be on the interior of the line, but if he (and DT Ty Steinkuhler) can rough up the middle of the Mizzou O-line, it's up to Brown and Fisher to keep Chase Daniel from being blindsided. I'm not worried about pressure from up the middle--Daniel can see that coming--it's what he can't see that I worry about.

DE Stryker Sulak

After a wonderful start to the season (3 sacks against Illinois), Sulak has more or less disappeared. He's been the second-best DE on Mizzou's team (anybody notice how well Tommy Chavis has been playing?) for the last three games. It's time for Sulak to make some more noise. Ziggy Hood's coming along, and if Sulak lives up to the expectations he built for himself, this defense is suddenly pretty scary.

FS William Moore

Remember him? I'm talking about William Moore the safety, not William Moore the third defensive end. Assuming we scale back the Moore experimentation a bit and he, you know, actually plays free safety (and is healthy enough to play it well), he is Mizzou's most dangerous player. Mizzou held a decent Buffalo offense in check without Moore, but Nebraska's obviously better than Buffalo, and Mizzou will need Moore to start making plays.

Then again, Sean Weatherspoon might just make all the plays, in which case it really doesn't matter what Moore does.

Summary

I want nothing more than to believe we're going to break a 30-year losing streak in Lincoln by absolutely destroying NU. It's within the realm of possibility. NU can't get to Chase Daniel early, Mizzou races to a quick early lead, Mizzou tees off on Joe Ganz, ..., blowout ensues.

But it's probably not going to happen. I've been saying for two weeks now that we are likely to get everything Nebraska has. Trick plays, inspired blitzes, some completely unknown receiver (Curenski Gilleylen, maybe?) coming out of the woodwork and finding a couple blindspots in Mizzou's Cover-2. They'll probably even get a couple Sea-of-Red-style lucky bounces like the ones that quickly turned the '06 game into a blowout (Really? Will Franklin actually bats the ball to Adam Carriker?).

It's going to be a game. But it comes down to what I've been repeating ad nauseum for the last two weeks: even with inspired play and some homefield bounces, can Nebraska stop Missouri more than Missouri can stop Nebraska? The only reason I can come up with to convince myself that would happen is that...well, this game is in Lincoln. Lincoln has been very bad to Mizzou over the years. But you know what? Manhattan and Boulder had also been bad to Mizzou for the last decade-plus. And Mizzou ended those jinxes quite violently in 2007. It's time to end this jinx too. Bring it on, Huskers.

Prediction: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

Poll

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

25 votes

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

7 votes

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

145 votes

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

6 votes

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!

10 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou Pass Defense: An Autopsy

RPT — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 18:05:11 -0000

So after taking a day to digest what happened in St. Louis, I whipped out the TiVo to try to figure out exactly what most Mizzou fans were thinking: what the hell went wrong with our pass defense?

I went back through Juice's first four touchdown passes (before my TiVo cut out) to try to assess what the scheme was, what went wrong, and who exactly was to blame.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 1:

The situation is stated in the top left corner of the diagram. Mizzou leads 7-0 but Illinois has worked into MU territory. The Illini line up in the Gun, with Dufrene left of Juice, a split end out wide on the left, a tight end to the right, and Judson and an unspecified slot receiver on the right. The left side of the field, both offense and defense, is unidentifiable but is also fairly inconsequential during the course of the play.

The play begins with a playfake from Juice to Dufrene, which at first appears to suck in Sean Weatherspoon. As the play develops though, Spoon shuffles along the line of scrimmage, showing himself to be playing a QB spy. Brock Christopher sits in a zone to take away the middle of the field.

The secondary is where the problem begins to occur. William Moore, lined up on the slot receiver before the snap, is sent on a nickel back blitz. This leaves safety Justin Garrett in man on the slot receiver (who I think was Arrelious Benn), who runs a post route and forces Garrett to the middle of the field. This route keeps Garrett from providing any support over the top, leaving Kevin Rutland in man-on-man with Will Judson on the right sideline. Judson barely gets by Rutland and goes up to make a great catch for the touchdown.

Here's the kicker, though. The coverage from Rutland was OUTSTANDING. But here's the thing about playing defensive back - you can be in perfect position and be step-for-step with the receiver, and if you don't make a play on the ball, it doesn't mean squat. Rutland NEVER looks back at the ball, giving Judson a chance to go up over him and get it.

Moore and/or Eberflus can be faulted for the ineffectiveness of the blitz, as Willy Mo is easily picked up by the IU O-Line. Moore is officially taken out of the play, but at the speed that this play developed, I'm not sure that it would have mattered.

VERDICT: Eberflus sent Moore on the blitz hoping that either A) Willy Mo would get to Juice first or B) Garrett and Rutland would be able to hold their own in man coverage. He was wrong about Part A, and very nearly right about Part B. This one is pretty much ALL on Rutland. A good defensive back has to have an innate sense of when the ball is in the air and show the ability to go up and make a play on it.

Breakdowns of the next three TD passes after the jump.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 2:

On the second TD pass, Illinois comes out with trips left, one back left of Juice, and Chris Duvalt isolated on the right sideline. Mizzou comes out in the nickel, with both Christopher and Weatherspoon showing blitz. The key matchup, before the play at least, is making sure Carl Gettis is on Benn in the slot with William Moore not on the field.

The trips set of receivers on the left runs a very common combination of routes. The X receiver runs a slant with Tremaine Vaughns in man coverage. Benn runs a drag across the middle with Gettis on his tail. The inside receiver, which looked like the UI tight end, runs a deep cross with Christopher lagging behind. On the right side, Castine Bridges is left alone in man coverage on Duvalt, who runs a wheel/fade.

Eberflus sends Spoon on the blitz and, stop if you've heard this before, gets easily picked up by the Illinois O-Line.

The question here becomes the usage of the safeties. Garrett sits in what looks like a Cover 1 over the top, but after watching the tape 15-20 times, I can't figure out exactly what Del Howard's assignment was. Howard creeps up towards the line of scrimmage for a split second until turning and trying to recover towards the Bridges/Duvalt pairing. I literally can not figure out what he was trying to do.

VERDICT: Once again, though, the coverage doesn't appear to be the problem. Castine goes step-for-step with Duvalt and is in great position to make the play. But JUST like Rutland before him, Bridges fails to make a play on the ball, and all of the sudden Juice begins to feel the momentum.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 3:

So, if blitz ineffectiveness played a small role in Juice's first two TD passes, it finally blew up in Mizzou's face on the third. Illinois comes out in trips right with a back and the X receiver to Juice's left. The inside slot receiver runs somewhere between an out and a corner route, with Garrett shading his coverage towards him on the right sideline. The Z receiver (Judson) on the far right runs a deep drag, taking Bridges (in man coverage) with him. With Garrett being sucked down and Castine being dragged across the field, this leaves a HUGE hole over the top.

Spoon and Christopher are both sent on a blitz and get little to no pressure on Juice. The blitz's failure once again leaves the secondary hanging out to dry a little bit. But, this time, it wasn't a failure to make a play on the ball that cost them.

William Moore, who was playing off of Duvalt in the slot, falls for a pump fake by Juice on the stop-and-go/wheel route. In that split second, Duvalt catapults by Moore and absolutely torches him en route to a wide open catch in the right side of the end zone.

VERDICT: The blame here is four-fold. Eberflus gets a share of the blame for continuing to send ineffective blitzes while the secondary struggles in man-to-man. Christopher and Spoon each take some of the blame for being swallowed whole by Illinois O-Line. But a large portion of the blame falls on Willy Mo, the All-American who not only bites hard on the pump fake, but gets burned over the top in the process. But let's give credit where credit is due: it was a great pump fake from Juice and a very well-run route from Duvalt.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 4:

So, 45-28 in favor of Mizzou in the fourth quarter. This one's over, right? Not so fast, my friend.

On the third touchdown pass, the misdirection of the pump fake ate up the Mizzou defense. On the fourth, the playaction to the halfback left of Juice absolutely undressed the secondary.

Juice play fakes to the back, and Spoon and Luke Lambert each take a step up expecting run. Both recover from misstep to settle into what appeared to be zone coverage over the middle. The two backers, along with William Moore, are charged with watching the drag/slants of the tight end and Benn out of the slot to make sure they aren't wide open over the middle.

But the real Charlie Foxtrot on this play is what happens on the right side of the field. To say Justin Garrett bites hard on the play fake is an insult to all things that bite hard. Garrett flies in from the safety position in run support, only to realize the massive void he's left over top once he sees that Juice has the ball. Tremaine Vaughns, lined up on Judson on the right side, bumps Jusdon off the line and stays with him for five yards or so. It is at this point where goes from looking like he was in man coverage to looking like he was in a shallow zone of a Cover 2. After the bump, Vaughns tries to settle into the flats, but looks over and sees that Garrett is nowhere to be found in support over top.

Both Garrett and Vaughns scramble and scamper back towards the streaking Judson as fast as they can, but 12 yards of separation isn't the easiest gap to make up. Judson reels in the pass, and, once again, IU makes it a game.

VERDICT: This time, there's no blitz to blame. All of the blame falls on the duo of Garrett and Vaughns, primarily on Garrett. There's always the chance that there was a miscommunication and Vaughns should have been in man coverage, but it looks like Mizzou was running a pretty basic Nickel Cover 2. Garrett gets sucked in on the play fake like Juice is a Dyson vacuum, and 65 yards later, Judson punishes him for it.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Dave Matter answers my question from above, indicating that there was indeed a miscommunication. This takes a lot of heat off of Justin Garrett:

Illinois’ longest pass capitalized on a classic case of miscommunication in the secondary. On Illinois’ first series of the fourth quarter, Illini receiver Will Judson blew by cornerback Tru Vaughns, who appeared to expect safety help over the top. But strong safety Justin Garrett was helping double-team slot receiver Arrelious Benn, leaving Judson 7 yards behind Vaughns when he hauled in Williams’ pass down the right sideline. He jogged to the end zone for a 65-yard score.