SB Nation - Chris Duvalt

Alright guys, don't blow it now

BoilerTMill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:47:26 -0000

I am trying to keep the good vibes going. If anyone listened to the Boiled Sports podcast Tuesday night I made a pretty bold statement. I said that as good as the Ohio State win was, losing to Illinois would be 10 times worse. As a result, I am watching the video of the Ohio State win as I write this, hoping it carries over into the blog.

It is true though. If we can beat Ohio State, there is absolutely no reason we should lose to Illinois. You do not often get a chance to play the best team in the conference, then the worst team in the conference the very next week. I would even take it a step further. With Ohio State, we may have played the best team on our schedule last week (though Oregon may be better since they have a real offense). I think Illinois is the worst team on our schedule. They proved last week they are worse than Indiana. I think they are worse than Toledo (who beat NIU last week) and Northern Illinois. This is a team that has quit on its season already. They need to win their remaining games (one of which is against one of the nation's last unbeaten teams) just to qualify for a bowl. Unless we see some unexpected fight from the Illini Saturday, they are done.

2008 Record: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

2009 Record: 1-5, 0-4

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6 (Purdue leads The Cannon portion 29-26-2)

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

This may be one of the least celebrated trophy games in the Big Ten, but it is one of the closest overall. We have had the Cannon in our possession since 2003, but the recent two-year hiatus in the series means that we only have four straight wins. Speaking as a Purdue fan, the Illinois game really doesn't feel like much of a rivalry. There has never been a ton at stake, as both teams haven't exactly torn up the Big Ten at the same time for quite awhile.

Illinois offense:

This is the main reason that any loss to the Illini would be awful. Their offense, especially if you take away the 45-17 win over Illinois State (a 1-AA team), has been abysmal. That one win represents 45 of the 99 points the team has scored through six games. Not only has Illinois managed just one first half touchdown against a 1-A foe, they have only led one game against a 1-A opponent for about five minutes. That occurred last week at Indiana when the Illini led the Hoosiers 7-3 with 5:27 left in the first half. Illinois gave up 10 points in the final minute of the half, and never threatened again.

I don't even know who we will face at quarterback. Juice Williams (80 of 143, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) is the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has already been benched in favored of Eddie McGee (21 of 41, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). There is even talk of third string quarterback Jacob Charest, a redshirt freshman, getting some time Saturday. Charest has yet to take a snap in his collegiate career, so if he plays it will officially label Illinois as desperate. Illinois has only passed for 1,128 yards between Williams and McGee.

For a true preview of Saturday, just reverse the 9 and 4 on the jersey. The result of this play (a sack, strip, and fumble recovery for a TD) will likely be the same.

Whoever plays, they will likely become well acquainted with Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Neal, and the rest of our defensive line by the end of the day. The Illinois offensive line is among the worst in the Big Ten, giving up a league high 19 sacks. If our defensive line is not dominating and causing pressure all day something is severely wrong. This is especially true since these guys just played like warriors against Ohio State.

Illinois is not moving the ball well on the ground, either. Williams is the leading rusher with only 239 yards and one touchdown. Jason Ford (222-1), Daniel Dufrene (199-1), and Mikel Leshoure (163-2) form a running back by committee approach that is far from effective. McGee also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, so he is a threat to run if he plays. One has to remember though that the bulk of these numbers, running and passing, have been put up either against Illinois State or after the game is well decided. Illinois has not been in a game against a 1-A foe except last week against Indiana.

If they can get him the ball, there is a bit of a danger at wide receiver. Arrelious Benn was a preseason All-American, but he has only 22 catches for 271 yards and no touchdowns to lead Illinois receivers. As long as we cover him we will shut down Illinois' pathetic passing game. Jarred Fayson (11-119-1), Chris Duvalt (9-136-1), Leshoure (8-115-1), and A.J.Jenkins (7-100-1) have put up modest second half numbers, but again, this offense has literally done nothing in the first half of most games. They need to get the ball to Benn more, who is a playmaker, but they have been unable to.

Illinois defense:

This is a battered unit. They have already lost possibly their best player in Martez Wilson for the season. They may have lost their second best player, Donsay Hardeman, for his career last week. They are not getting to the quarterback with just six team sacks on the year. The offense is doing nothing to help them out, so the defense is getting worn down to the point where it is about as reliable as the Rhythm Method in preventing conception. They have also only forced seven turnovers (three interceptions, four fumbles), and three of those came against Illinois State. I kind of feel bad for them because they are undoubtedly playing hard, but they are getting zero help from their teammates.

Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece. Thomas has one of the team's sacks, while Wilson has one of the three interceptions. Doug Pilcher is a bit of a force on the defensive line as well. Pilcher has two sacks, 18 tackles, and an interception with a 41 yard return. Russell Ellington could also be a factor, as he has an interception with a 78 yard return. This is still not a fearsome unit.

Illinois is giving up over 28 points per game and their run defense is particularly bad. They are giving up about 180 yards on the ground, which is good for Ralph Bolden. Bolden has not had much room to run recently, and against Northwestern when he did have room we just kept fumbling the ball away. Look for Bolden to get over 100 yards for the first time since the Oregon game. McBurse and Taylor should also see some holes when they are in there. The pass defense is not much better, as it gives up 241 yards per game.

Honestly, we should only have trouble against their defense if we start giving the ball away again. Turnovers were still an issue last week against Ohio State, but we gave up no points off of them. Illinois does not force nearly as many turnovers as Ohio State does, so it once again comes down to us not shooting ourselves in the foot.

Illinois Special Teams:

And you thought their other units were bad. They have no punt return game (a long of nine yards), no kick return game (Benn is a dangerous returner, but only has a long of 33), and Matt Eller has hit on just half his field goals. Granted, the offense is not getting Eller in position to kick, as he is just 3 of 6 on the year with a long of 38.

One phrase we should get used to hearing is, "Anthony Santella is in punt formation". He averages almost six punts per game and has almost a 41 yard per kick average. Both coverage units on special teams for Illinois are merely average.

Intangibles:

This is a team that is already beaten. I watched part of Saturday night's game at Indiana and they had no hustle or emotion whatsoever. Beating them would officially end their bowl hopes, as there is no way they will win their five games after this and qualify at 6-6. This is Illinois' last shot to save its season, but given their body language and effort so far it would be a total shock to see them suddenly turn things on. Though Purdue and Illinois have similar record, Purdue has fought hard and has been in every single game. Illinois hasn't even been close, and they have rolled over and died since the opener against Missouri.

The one Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, has already virtually given up and jumped to basketball content. Their last two game wraps of Rock Bottom and Failing on all Cylinders show that confidence in the football program is at an all time low. There is no doubt that Illinois has more talent than a lot of teams, but that talent is severely underperforming in all phases of the game at the moment. They are even one of the most penalized teams in the league. I am not even going to mention the gigantic Ron Zook intangible right now. Every writer in the Big Ten is saying enough about his epic level of fail at the moment.

Contractually obligated Ron Zook blog picture. He will likely soon have plenty of time for his hobbies, such as fighting Boilerdowd to the death.

Purdue, meanwhile, is as high as it has been in about five years. Even the 8-6 season of 2006 and 8-5 season of 2007 did not have a moment that was a tenth as important as last week against Ohio State. As long as we don't go out and pull a Northern Illinois we will be fine.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Hogtie the team that showed up against Northern Illinois
Don't turn the ball over
Maintain last week's momentum
Run the ball with Bolden, McBurse, and Taylor
Dominate along the defensive line

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Offense

Bill C. — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

If Zook wants to keep throwing out first pitches, he may want to start winning some more games soon...not impossible, but not much margin for error.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Did you get as many chills reading that subject line as I got typing it? Oh baby. It's time once again to begin our week-to-week BTBS previews of Mizzou's 11 FBS opponents (and the three other Big 12 South teams too).

We start with Mizzou's September 5 opponent, and possibly the most confounding team in the country to analyze.

2008

Record: 5-7 (3-5)
S&P+: #25
Scoring Margin: 344-319 (+25)
Conference Scoring Margin: 218-206 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Iowa (#13), @ MIchigan (#68), Indiana (#71), UL-Lafayette (#85), Eastern Illinois (FCS)
Losses: @ Penn State (#6), Ohio State (#8), vs Missouri (#10), @ Northwestern (#44), Minnesota (#63), @ Wisconsin (#64), Western Michigan (#106)

Yes, we know that it was rather ridiculous that Illinois made the Rose Bowl in 2007, but Illinois did still manage 9 wins that season, a nice, upwardly mobile change in zip code after winning a combined eight games in the previous four seasons. But a drop from 9-4 to 5-7 was both rather surprising and unacceptable. It's one thing to lose to top teams (Illinois played four of the top 13 teams according to S&P+, even beating Iowa); it's quite another to beat only one team with any sort of winning record and go 3-3 against teams ranked 50th or worse. Any sort of goodwill Ron Zook earned with 2007 likely went flying out the window in 2008. And the schedule gets much more dicey in 2009. Okay, maybe not dicey...but full of tossups.

Coaching

Head Coach: Ron Zook
Record at Illinois: 18-30 (conference: 10-22)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): -4.0 wins (-0.6/year)

According to Rivals.com, here are the recruiting rankings for Ron Zook's six recruiting classes at Florida and Illinois (excluding 2002 and 2005, where Zook took the given job late in the recruiting year): #2, #7, #30, #20, #23, #35. He hasn't done as good a job recruiting at Illinois as he did at Florida (where I could take over and lock down a Top 15 class), but still, he and his staff have brought in quite a bit of highly-touted talent in his coaching career.

Now here's his record as head coach from 2002-08: 41-45. He inherited a Florida team that had gone 103-23-1 in the past decade (a win% of .815) and went 23-15 (.605) in Gainesville. In the four years since he left, Florida's gone 44-9 (.830). Now, in four years in Champaign, Zook has managed exactly one winning season and gone 18-30. Yes, the Rose Bowl was nice, but one has to wonder exactly how much time he has left to prove that he can do more than attract decent talent to play for him. One would think that eventually you need to consistently win with that talent.

How does one evaluate a coach's performance with numbers? At least, beyond final records and rankings? You can get at part of the story by looking at a team's record versus their Pythagorean record. What the hell is that? Well, it started as a Bill James baseball measure (what didn't?), taking a team's run totals (both for and against) and projecting the record a team should have from those numbers. It is a good method for showing which teams might be performing well if used midway through the season (be on the lookout for the ~~Devil~~ Rays, by the way--they're not going to be hovering around .500 for long with their run differential), or which teams might be due a bounceback season the next year.

Aside from using different multipliers, it works reasonably the same for football. In theory, most coaches' records should end up right around the +/-0 mark (one year they overachieve their Pythagorean record, the next they underachieve); over time, you can get a good idea of which's coach's teams constantly overachieve or underachieve based on points scored.

So what is Zook's career Pythagorean record? 45-41. Actual record? 41-45. So his teams have done about four games worse than they should, or -0.6 per year. As comparison, Gary Pinkel is -0.1/year, Jim Tressel is +1.0/year, Rich Rodriguez is +0.6/year, and Joe Paterno (over the last seven years) is, strangely, -0.6/year.

Now, none of this conclusively proves that Zook is a good or bad coach--as a whole, Zook doesn't have a wonderful reputation, and these numbers don't prove that perception wrong. But whether he's a truly good or bad coach, he probably needs to start winning this year.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 112.78 (#31)
Success Rate+: 107.74 (#34)
PPP+: 120.88 (#29)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 116.24 (#18)
Passing Downs S&P+: 120.71 (#24)

Redzone S&P+: 110.62 (#39)

Q1 S&P+: 133.72 (#10)
Q2 S&P+: 94.61 (#84)
Q3 S&P+: 132.22 (#9)
Q4 S&P+: 122.71 (#16)

1st Down S&P+: 119.96 (#17)
2nd Down S&P+: 124.41 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 109.85 (#41)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 109.84 (#44)
Rushing SR+: 111.98 (#30)
Rushing PPP+: 108.06 (#56)

Standard Downs: 115.45 (#26)
Passing Downs: 111.13 (#48)

Redzone: 107.07 (#51)

Line Yards+: 110.82 (#29)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.82 (#24)
Passing SR+: 103.80 (#45)
Passing PPP+: 131.89 (#17)

Standard Downs: 118.39 (#20)
Passing Downs: 124.91 (#22)

Redzone: 114.06 (#37)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 6.1% (#68)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

Lots of numbers there, I realize. What do they mean for the most part? In a majority of categories, lllinois ranked between about #25 and #50. Good, not great. The most interesting splits are found in the by-quarter and by-down numbers. Illinois had a great offense in Q1, Q3, and Q4...and were terrible in Q2. Eh? How does that happen? Usually when I look at numbers that are great in the first quarter and bad in the second, I surmise that a coach's gameplanning was good, but the in-game adjustments were lacking.

One encouraging trend for Illinois: their first- and second-down numbers were strong, but they were lacking on third downs. At the pro level, third down success is the last thing to come when a team is learning how to win. That could be good for Illinois in 2009, but...well, they weren't extremely young in 2008, at least not at the QB position. How much development does Juice still have to make?

Quarterback

Will Andre Ware's favorite quarterback finally put all the pieces together his senior year? (via)

2008 Unit Ranking: #22 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Juice Williams (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Eddie McGee (6'4, 210, Jr.)
Jacob Charest (6'4, 220, RSFr.)

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

As you will see throughout the rest of the summer, I've come up with rough ways to rank individual units*--in the case of Juice, it's probably the best possible way to evaluate him without all the contradicting information our eyeballs tell us about him. In the end, the numbers ranked Illinois' QB unit (of which Juice was about 98%) as the 21st unit in the country, 3rd in the Big Ten behind Penn State (#4) and Ohio State (#17) and ahead of Iowa (#34), Minnesota (#39), and Wisconsin (#41). That sounds about right; while the offense wasn't quite as good as it seemed it could be, defensive breakdowns were the bigger problem in 2008.

* I'm sure I'll tweak how I rate them a million times, but I'd say I've already got better methods than these people do.

Oh, and about Eddie McGee. Look, I realize that we Missouri fans are the biggest McGee proponents as there is, but...he's simply not as good as Juice Williams. Yes, he caught Mizzou by surprise in 2007 and almost led a dramatic comeback, but since then, mostly in mop-up time, he's 17-for-33 for 246 yards, a TD, and an INT. Certainly not terrible, but not better than Juice. That said, I love the "Eddie > Juice" meme, and we should absolutely keep it up.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #95 in the nation (#11 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jason Ford (6'0, 230, So.)
Daniel Dufrene (5'11, 205, Sr.)
Mikel Leshoure (6'0, 225, So.)
Troy Pollard (5'8, 185, So.)

Here's where the numbers tell a pretty cruel tale. Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP (EqPts Per Play) despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. What's POE? A new stat, of course! It stands for Points Over Expected. It takes the "expected" value of every carry a team's RBs made based on the opponent's rush defense stats and compares it to the actual output. For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. Combined with good Line Yards figures (meaning the O-line was doing its job), this unit should have produced much more than it did, hence the putrid ratings.

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Are the numbers right? Is he maybe overrated? Sure doesn't seem like it watching him...

2008 Unit Ranking: #24 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Arrelious Benn (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Jeff Cumberland (6'5, 255, Sr.)
Jarred Fayson (6'0, 215, Jr.)
A.J. Jenkins (6'0, 185, So.)
Chris Duvalt (5'11, 175, Sr.)
Terry Hawthorne (6'0, 170, Fr.)
Fred Sykes (6'0, 185, So.)
Cordale Scott (6'3, 215, So.)
Chris James (6'0, 195, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Michael Hoomanawanui (6'5, 270, Sr.)
Hubie Graham (6'4, 245, So.)
London Davis (6'4, 255, RSFr.)

I still have some work to do on a good Receiver POE number. In its infancy, the number doesn't really think too highly of Arrelious Benn. It says that, over 67 receptions, he only produced 13.80 Points Over Expected, good for only #77 among eligible WRs. It says that of the passes he caught, he really didn't do anything with them beyond what the average receiver would do.

Now, there's a skill in and of itself for catching that many passes, and I will continue to tweak the formulas, but in the meantime Benn only comes in at #77. However, his pass-catching mate, TE-turned-WR-even-though-he-looks-like-a-TE Jeff Cumberland came in at #83, at 13.12, in only 20 catches. This makes a bit of sense, in that Cumberland managed four touchdowns in his 20 catches, while Benn somehow only had three all year (and as we've seen, yards gained are worth more EqPts close to the endzone). Meanwhile, since-departed Will Judson came in at #104.

Having three receivers in the top 104 gave Illinois a pretty decently-ranked WR corps even if the formulas didn't like Benn all that much. Benn and Cumberland return, into Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #37 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jon Asamoah (G, 6'5, 315, Sr.)
Jeff Allen (T, 6'5, 310, So.)
Eric Block (C, 6'3, 290, Sr.)
Corey Lewis (T, 6'6, 315, So.)
Graham Pocic (G, 6'7, 320, RSFr.)
Craig Wilson (T, 6'5, 320, So.)
Jack Cornell (G, 6'5, 315, So.)
Tyler Sanders (C, 6'5, 295, RSFr.)
Ryan Palmer (T, 6'7, 310, Jr.)
Randall Hunt (G, 6'6, 320, Jr.)

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Summary

Add all this up, and what do we have? A Top 20 quarterback, a Top 20 receiving corps, a Top 50 offensive line, and poor running backs. That gives them distinct advantages and disadvantages against what we think we know about the Mizzou defense. Mizzou's inexperienced-but-athletic defensive line should be able to hold its own against UI's OLs, and the Tiger LB corps could dominate UI's RBs (much like they did last year). But a good WR corps should be able to find holes in a better-but-younger Mizzou secondary, and an experienced QB in Juice Williams should be able to make a few things happen against an overall young Mizzou defense.

Poll

Biggest problem for the Mizzou defense?

QB Juice Williams

43 votes

RBs Dufrene, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard

3 votes

WRs Benn, Cumberland, and Fayson, and TE Hoomanawanui

41 votes

An offensive line led by a solid interior

5 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou Pass Defense: An Autopsy

RPT — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 18:05:11 -0000

So after taking a day to digest what happened in St. Louis, I whipped out the TiVo to try to figure out exactly what most Mizzou fans were thinking: what the hell went wrong with our pass defense?

I went back through Juice's first four touchdown passes (before my TiVo cut out) to try to assess what the scheme was, what went wrong, and who exactly was to blame.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 1:

The situation is stated in the top left corner of the diagram. Mizzou leads 7-0 but Illinois has worked into MU territory. The Illini line up in the Gun, with Dufrene left of Juice, a split end out wide on the left, a tight end to the right, and Judson and an unspecified slot receiver on the right. The left side of the field, both offense and defense, is unidentifiable but is also fairly inconsequential during the course of the play.

The play begins with a playfake from Juice to Dufrene, which at first appears to suck in Sean Weatherspoon. As the play develops though, Spoon shuffles along the line of scrimmage, showing himself to be playing a QB spy. Brock Christopher sits in a zone to take away the middle of the field.

The secondary is where the problem begins to occur. William Moore, lined up on the slot receiver before the snap, is sent on a nickel back blitz. This leaves safety Justin Garrett in man on the slot receiver (who I think was Arrelious Benn), who runs a post route and forces Garrett to the middle of the field. This route keeps Garrett from providing any support over the top, leaving Kevin Rutland in man-on-man with Will Judson on the right sideline. Judson barely gets by Rutland and goes up to make a great catch for the touchdown.

Here's the kicker, though. The coverage from Rutland was OUTSTANDING. But here's the thing about playing defensive back - you can be in perfect position and be step-for-step with the receiver, and if you don't make a play on the ball, it doesn't mean squat. Rutland NEVER looks back at the ball, giving Judson a chance to go up over him and get it.

Moore and/or Eberflus can be faulted for the ineffectiveness of the blitz, as Willy Mo is easily picked up by the IU O-Line. Moore is officially taken out of the play, but at the speed that this play developed, I'm not sure that it would have mattered.

VERDICT: Eberflus sent Moore on the blitz hoping that either A) Willy Mo would get to Juice first or B) Garrett and Rutland would be able to hold their own in man coverage. He was wrong about Part A, and very nearly right about Part B. This one is pretty much ALL on Rutland. A good defensive back has to have an innate sense of when the ball is in the air and show the ability to go up and make a play on it.

Breakdowns of the next three TD passes after the jump.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 2:

On the second TD pass, Illinois comes out with trips left, one back left of Juice, and Chris Duvalt isolated on the right sideline. Mizzou comes out in the nickel, with both Christopher and Weatherspoon showing blitz. The key matchup, before the play at least, is making sure Carl Gettis is on Benn in the slot with William Moore not on the field.

The trips set of receivers on the left runs a very common combination of routes. The X receiver runs a slant with Tremaine Vaughns in man coverage. Benn runs a drag across the middle with Gettis on his tail. The inside receiver, which looked like the UI tight end, runs a deep cross with Christopher lagging behind. On the right side, Castine Bridges is left alone in man coverage on Duvalt, who runs a wheel/fade.

Eberflus sends Spoon on the blitz and, stop if you've heard this before, gets easily picked up by the Illinois O-Line.

The question here becomes the usage of the safeties. Garrett sits in what looks like a Cover 1 over the top, but after watching the tape 15-20 times, I can't figure out exactly what Del Howard's assignment was. Howard creeps up towards the line of scrimmage for a split second until turning and trying to recover towards the Bridges/Duvalt pairing. I literally can not figure out what he was trying to do.

VERDICT: Once again, though, the coverage doesn't appear to be the problem. Castine goes step-for-step with Duvalt and is in great position to make the play. But JUST like Rutland before him, Bridges fails to make a play on the ball, and all of the sudden Juice begins to feel the momentum.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 3:

So, if blitz ineffectiveness played a small role in Juice's first two TD passes, it finally blew up in Mizzou's face on the third. Illinois comes out in trips right with a back and the X receiver to Juice's left. The inside slot receiver runs somewhere between an out and a corner route, with Garrett shading his coverage towards him on the right sideline. The Z receiver (Judson) on the far right runs a deep drag, taking Bridges (in man coverage) with him. With Garrett being sucked down and Castine being dragged across the field, this leaves a HUGE hole over the top.

Spoon and Christopher are both sent on a blitz and get little to no pressure on Juice. The blitz's failure once again leaves the secondary hanging out to dry a little bit. But, this time, it wasn't a failure to make a play on the ball that cost them.

William Moore, who was playing off of Duvalt in the slot, falls for a pump fake by Juice on the stop-and-go/wheel route. In that split second, Duvalt catapults by Moore and absolutely torches him en route to a wide open catch in the right side of the end zone.

VERDICT: The blame here is four-fold. Eberflus gets a share of the blame for continuing to send ineffective blitzes while the secondary struggles in man-to-man. Christopher and Spoon each take some of the blame for being swallowed whole by Illinois O-Line. But a large portion of the blame falls on Willy Mo, the All-American who not only bites hard on the pump fake, but gets burned over the top in the process. But let's give credit where credit is due: it was a great pump fake from Juice and a very well-run route from Duvalt.

TOUCHDOWN PASS NO. 4:

So, 45-28 in favor of Mizzou in the fourth quarter. This one's over, right? Not so fast, my friend.

On the third touchdown pass, the misdirection of the pump fake ate up the Mizzou defense. On the fourth, the playaction to the halfback left of Juice absolutely undressed the secondary.

Juice play fakes to the back, and Spoon and Luke Lambert each take a step up expecting run. Both recover from misstep to settle into what appeared to be zone coverage over the middle. The two backers, along with William Moore, are charged with watching the drag/slants of the tight end and Benn out of the slot to make sure they aren't wide open over the middle.

But the real Charlie Foxtrot on this play is what happens on the right side of the field. To say Justin Garrett bites hard on the play fake is an insult to all things that bite hard. Garrett flies in from the safety position in run support, only to realize the massive void he's left over top once he sees that Juice has the ball. Tremaine Vaughns, lined up on Judson on the right side, bumps Jusdon off the line and stays with him for five yards or so. It is at this point where goes from looking like he was in man coverage to looking like he was in a shallow zone of a Cover 2. After the bump, Vaughns tries to settle into the flats, but looks over and sees that Garrett is nowhere to be found in support over top.

Both Garrett and Vaughns scramble and scamper back towards the streaking Judson as fast as they can, but 12 yards of separation isn't the easiest gap to make up. Judson reels in the pass, and, once again, IU makes it a game.

VERDICT: This time, there's no blitz to blame. All of the blame falls on the duo of Garrett and Vaughns, primarily on Garrett. There's always the chance that there was a miscommunication and Vaughns should have been in man coverage, but it looks like Mizzou was running a pretty basic Nickel Cover 2. Garrett gets sucked in on the play fake like Juice is a Dyson vacuum, and 65 yards later, Judson punishes him for it.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Dave Matter answers my question from above, indicating that there was indeed a miscommunication. This takes a lot of heat off of Justin Garrett:

Illinois’ longest pass capitalized on a classic case of miscommunication in the secondary. On Illinois’ first series of the fourth quarter, Illini receiver Will Judson blew by cornerback Tru Vaughns, who appeared to expect safety help over the top. But strong safety Justin Garrett was helping double-team slot receiver Arrelious Benn, leaving Judson 7 yards behind Vaughns when he hauled in Williams’ pass down the right sideline. He jogged to the end zone for a 65-yard score.