SB Nation - Jeff Cumberland

Cupcake Wars: Indiana Defeats Illinois 27-14, Plus Discussion of Trent Green's Jaw and Primitive Radio Gods

grahamfiller10 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 05:57:04 -0000

Thinking about the eternal "if a tree falls in the woods does it make a sound" question, I ask: Is there an outcome of Saturday night's pillowfight that would make you care about this game?

Probably not, I assume. But I still had numerous questions for this game: Would Juice Williams and Illinois show any wrinkles to their staid offensive system? Could the hyped up Hoosier linemen (Kirlew, Middleton, probable Freshman All-American Larry Black) have a field day against the Big Tens worst offense? Would my new favorite Big Ten coach Bill Lynch continue the creative playcalling that has allowed Indiana to pick up tons of yards? Would God strike down the creator of those horrendous Hampton Inn commercials featuring the broadcasting couple? Does an Indiana win give them a fighting chance to get to a bowl game?

PILLOWFIGHT TIME LADIES

When a mediocre team plays a horrible team, certain expectations exist. There should be drive killing penalties, unexplainable fumbles, non-spiraling throws, etc. This game certainly didn't disappoint, although most of those aforementioned foibles were carried out by the Fighting Illini.

The Big Ten Network started out the broadcast by showing it's two announcers talking...with thousands of empty seats in the background. Whoops. Those fans who did attend seemed pretty damn spirited though.

Trent Green, former IU quarterback and 30303 year NFL veteran, visited the booth during his Homecoming trip to Bloomington. His jaw is a square. He's almost Jake Ryan-esque...RIP John Hughes and Sixteen Candles.

Microsoft Paint: It's what happens when inconsequential cellar dwellers play.

NOTES ON JUICE AND THE FIGHTING ILLINI

After awhile, I guess I just don't feel like "Fighting" should be associated with this team. How about the Middling Illini?

Juice, who was 22-37 for 258 yards and two touchdowns in maybe his best start of the year, showed he can occasionally make two types of throws, the sideline deep ball and the occasional sideline out route. Here is a list of throws he cannot make:

Most sit down routes. He sailed about 5 passes over wide open receivers.
Slant routes, deep or short. Not even close with most of them.
Anything on the run should probably be taken out of the playbook.
Dump downs. REALLY. I know you didn't watch this game, but he missed a couple dump downs. Trust me.

The two Juice fumbles that iced the game for Indiana were semi-inexcusable, but it's not like he was getting help from everyone else. A great second quarter drive ended in a momentum killing missed field goal, Jeff Cumberland dropped a ball that hit him in the numbers, and the Illini secondary missed tackles all night.

NOTES ON INDIANA AND THE FIGHTING BILL LYNCH'S

The first possession for the Hoosiers featured: the Single Wing (with Mitchell Evans), a Diamond formation, and Ben Chappell lining up as a wide receiver. Bill Lynch will NOT be phoning it in this year, thank you.

The Pistol really does offer a lot of options for Chappell. His fluid movement and misdirection fakes in the backfield show a certain level of comfort that makes this offense go. Is it odd that one of the Big Ten's best slant throwers resides in Bloomington? Also, major props to the cohesive nature of the Indiana passing game. It's a domino effect - Chappell sat in the pocket comfortably because he trusted his O-Line, the wide receivers ran some great routes and laid out for balls because they trust Chappell to deliver the ball, etc. It's the circle of life...and it moves us all.

After Tandon Doss caught a deep touchdown pass late in the game, he successfully executed a Big Ten record seven separate "Celebrating Wide Receiver Jumping Body Bumps." I like this way to celebrate - it's more complex than just patting and hugging, there's lots of movement and excitement, and sometimes overweight assistant coaches knock over their own players while in the act. Bravo.

Jammie Kirlew - All Big Ten Defensive End, second team. Done andddd done. He essentially ended the game by spinning past an OL and stripping the ball from Juice. And for those who were wondering, the first team DE's are some combination of O'Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn and Brandon Graham.

The Single Wing that Indiana has run effectively against most of their opponents is called the "Wild Mitch", referring to speedy backup QB Mitchell Evans (84 yards on the ground versus the Illini). This leads to another reoccurring theme - Many teams have the Single Wing now, but they all call it something specific and not so clever. Like the NYJets last Monday night, running the "Wild Jets" or something. If I coached a team, I would call my Single Wing formation "Standing Outside a Broken Phone Booth with Money in My Hand." It's got a nice, "man all alone" feeling to it.

I love Austin Thomas. That man will put his hat on anyone.

Larry Black Jr, the 300 lb freshman DT, looks hungry (hahaha) and has some active feet. Since he's from Cinci, I'm going to wager that he attended St. Xavier High School...Let me check...Nope, Wyoming High School. That was a bad miss.

Indiana's main wide receivers (Tandon Doss, Damarlo Belcher, Terrance Turner) are an average size of 6' 4'' 207 lbs. Not only is that huge, but they give Chappell an excellent target to throw to. And even though no one will see/remember/acknowledge it, Doss made the second best catch in the Big Ten this year, a diving scoop for 15 yards while flying out of bounds. Second only to Deckers' "White Receiver What Now B****" touchdown against Cali when blood started dripping down his face post-catch.

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

An early look at Illinois.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

This doesn't look like Pasadena anymore.

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Illinois Fighting Illini

Last meeting: 10/18/2008 (Illinois 55, IU 13 in Champaign)
Last IU win: 10/7/2006 (IU 34, Illinois 32 in Champaign)
Series: Illinois leads 43-20-2
Coach: Ron Zook (4th year, 18-30)

Perhaps no program has seen a wider variety of highs and lows over the last decade than Illinois. Ron Zook's four years at Illinois include three losing seasons, but the winning season included a shocking win at Ohio State and a Rose Bowl appearance. His predecessor, Ron Turner, had six losing seasons in his eight years, but his two winning seasons included a Big Ten title in 2001 and road wins over Ohio State and Michigan in 1999. In the last twelve years, Illinois has been to two BCS bowls but has three 0-8 conference seasons. I doubt any other program can say that. Unfortunately for Illinois, the dual personalities persisted in 2008. A season after making their first trip to Pasadena since 1983-84, the Illini fell back to 5-7.

Here is Illinois's NCAA stat summary and the Statsheet page. The Illini's overall numbers were thoroughly mediocre, with few really good or really bad numbers standing out. On the season, despite finishing 5-7, the Illini were +25 in points scored. The Illini were #19 in the nation with 438 yards per game and allowed 350 yards per game on defense. They averaged 8.2 yards per passing play (#16 nationally) and passed for 269 yards per game). Juice Williams replicated his 57 percent completions from 2007 and threw an handful more touchdown passes. Given that information, few would have predicted such a step back for Illinois. After a horrid freshman year that led to an indefensible amount of publicity, Williams became a passable passer. Unfortunately for Illinois, numbers that were good enough for the Rose Bowl in 2007 weren't worth as much in 2008.

Who else is back for the Illini? A website called Isportsweb.com has a comprehensive preview of the Illinois offense, defense, and special teams. Arrelious Benn, by far the Illini's leading receiver with 1055 yards but only 3 TDs, is back. The Illini lost Will Judson but return leading TD receiver Jeff Cumberland. Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui also returns, as does most of the offensive line. Williams led the Illini in rushing last year, but literally every player who gained a rushing yard for Illinois in 2008 is on the 2009 roster.

On defense, the Illini better hope that Ron Zook's recruiting has been as excellent as reported. Illinois replaces its entire starting defensive line in 2009. The Illini return two starters in the secondary and one at linebacker. In other words, the Illini offense may have to carry the load this season.

IU's 2008 game against Illinois was one of the low points of a really bad season. IU lost badly, 55-13 in Champaign, in front of a prime time audience on the Big Ten Network. Here's what I said then:

Illinois nearly doubled up IU in total offense (563-313); averaged 6.6 yards per carry to IU's 3.2; passed for 271 yards to IU 172; averaged 8.5 yards per play to IU's 4.3; and turned the ball over once to IU's twice. Last year, I made quite a bit of fun of Juice Williams, so it's only fair to note that he is much improved as a passer, and his 72.7 completion percentage last night was his career best. Other thoughts:

The Seven Blocks of Limestone are more like Seven Bags of Mulch. Ben Chappell was sacked four times in his first college start, and the O-line's failures continue to hurt every aspect of the offense.

While the line takes its share of the blame, Chappell, filling in for injured Kellen Lewis, completed only 10 of his 29 pass attempts against a previously mediocre Illinois defense.

Austin Starr and Greg Middleton need not worry about repeating as All-Americans this season.

What in the world possessed Bill Lynch to kick field goals down 34-7 and 48-10? I suppose I can understand the last one, trying to restore Starr's confidence. But a 20 point deficit in the middle of the third quarter is not insurmountable. Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying IU would have won if Lynch had gone for it there--we probably wouldn't have gotten the touchdown. But midway through the third quarter is too early to wave the white flag.

So, this might be an interesting game. Illinois is a talented team that probably was a bit better last season than the record would suggest. Still, the Hoosiers have lost two in a row in this series since Austin Starr's game winning field goal at Champaign in 2006. Hopefully, IU can bounce back.

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

The Best Wide Receivers in the Big Ten

grahamfiller10 — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:05:54 -0000

Ron Zook's Illinois squad has the best starting wide receivers in the Big Ten. Thanks to the departure of Penn State's Big 3 to the NFL, no other Big Ten team comes close. Let's take a look at the three well known receivers and then discuss how Zook and OC Mike Schultz can get them the damn ball.

Arrelious Benn. A five star recruit with great size and solid hands, Benn's best attribute is the "defensive back killing" mentality he brings to the passing game. One on one in the open field is not pleasant against this 220 lb speedster. Shockingly enough, he's scored only five touchdowns in two years. Was an all Big Ten selection last year, but was slowed in the Illini's late season swoon. Against Penn State, Benn scored two memorable touchdowns in primetime. Former OC Locksley used him in the option attack also.

Jeff Cumberland. Weighing 250 pounds and standing 6'5'', this Columbus (OH) native became more effective late in 2008 when teams began doubling Benn. You can throw the end zone fade route to this monster, but deep sideline routes are also perfect for Cumberland's unique combination of speed and size.

Jarred Fayson. The former five star Gator recruit will have an instant impact with his 4.3 speed and good size (6'1'', 215 lbs). Showing flashes of brilliance in the punt return game or running after the catch, Fayson can line up in the slot or out wide.

Last year, the Illini didn't make in-game adjustments on offense and never got a consistent running game going. The goats became Juice Williams and the offensive line. Look at the first half of the NW game - Juice was sacked three times, fumbled twice, and was picked off once. Take a look at the Minnesota game - over 400 yards of Juice-generated offense, but the game turned on a blown block by the Illini offensive line.

But anyone who watched Juice and the Illini in 2008 knew two things for sure. First, Juice's throwing mechanics had improved markedly since the Rose Bowl year of 2007. He no longer shotputted the ball and his deep throws were thrown with much more zip and accuracy. Second, the loss of Rashard Mendenhall threw off the strong Illini run game.

So what should OC Mike Schultz do to get his three playmakers the ball? Two things stick out in my mind.

Focus on lower risk passing plays. The deep sideline throws and slants that Juice was being asked to make in 2008 took a long time to develop and allowed defenders to attack the relatively weak offensive line and hurry the quarterback. I know it's tempting to bomb the ball when you have Benn and the improved throwing arm of Williams, but being aware of your weaknesses (read: OL) is important. I envision a menagerie of short screens to Fayson and slants to Benn, plays that don't require your linemen to block for an extended time.

Continue the diversification of the running game. When Illinois lit up Michigan in 2008, they did so with play action runs from the spread option, getting the ball alternately to Juice, Benn, and starting tailback Daniel Dufrene. This success led to open receivers over the top (Cumberland had an 80 yard catch). But this success was shortlived - the Illinois running game was manhandled against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Western Michigan. The option with Benn was pretty much phased out after the Michigan game, while RB Jason Ford and Dufrene combined for only two 100 yard games. Illinois can run successfully from the shotgun spread, as they proved in 2007. Not only will a committment to the run game take pressure off Juice, it will force linebackers to step up in coverage instead of fading back into the secondary and wreaking havoc. Finally, Benn will see less of the double coverage that blanketed his side of the field much of last year.

Seeing these changes early will take some coaching adjustments and some patience. Blessed with home run hitters all over the field, Zook allowed the offense to become one dimensional last year. Now blessed with more home run threats, will he learn from the mistakes of 2008 and focus on a complete offensive attack?

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Offense

Bill C. — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

If Zook wants to keep throwing out first pitches, he may want to start winning some more games soon...not impossible, but not much margin for error.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Did you get as many chills reading that subject line as I got typing it? Oh baby. It's time once again to begin our week-to-week BTBS previews of Mizzou's 11 FBS opponents (and the three other Big 12 South teams too).

We start with Mizzou's September 5 opponent, and possibly the most confounding team in the country to analyze.

2008

Record: 5-7 (3-5)
S&P+: #25
Scoring Margin: 344-319 (+25)
Conference Scoring Margin: 218-206 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): Iowa (#13), @ MIchigan (#68), Indiana (#71), UL-Lafayette (#85), Eastern Illinois (FCS)
Losses: @ Penn State (#6), Ohio State (#8), vs Missouri (#10), @ Northwestern (#44), Minnesota (#63), @ Wisconsin (#64), Western Michigan (#106)

Yes, we know that it was rather ridiculous that Illinois made the Rose Bowl in 2007, but Illinois did still manage 9 wins that season, a nice, upwardly mobile change in zip code after winning a combined eight games in the previous four seasons. But a drop from 9-4 to 5-7 was both rather surprising and unacceptable. It's one thing to lose to top teams (Illinois played four of the top 13 teams according to S&P+, even beating Iowa); it's quite another to beat only one team with any sort of winning record and go 3-3 against teams ranked 50th or worse. Any sort of goodwill Ron Zook earned with 2007 likely went flying out the window in 2008. And the schedule gets much more dicey in 2009. Okay, maybe not dicey...but full of tossups.

Coaching

Head Coach: Ron Zook
Record at Illinois: 18-30 (conference: 10-22)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): -4.0 wins (-0.6/year)

According to Rivals.com, here are the recruiting rankings for Ron Zook's six recruiting classes at Florida and Illinois (excluding 2002 and 2005, where Zook took the given job late in the recruiting year): #2, #7, #30, #20, #23, #35. He hasn't done as good a job recruiting at Illinois as he did at Florida (where I could take over and lock down a Top 15 class), but still, he and his staff have brought in quite a bit of highly-touted talent in his coaching career.

Now here's his record as head coach from 2002-08: 41-45. He inherited a Florida team that had gone 103-23-1 in the past decade (a win% of .815) and went 23-15 (.605) in Gainesville. In the four years since he left, Florida's gone 44-9 (.830). Now, in four years in Champaign, Zook has managed exactly one winning season and gone 18-30. Yes, the Rose Bowl was nice, but one has to wonder exactly how much time he has left to prove that he can do more than attract decent talent to play for him. One would think that eventually you need to consistently win with that talent.

How does one evaluate a coach's performance with numbers? At least, beyond final records and rankings? You can get at part of the story by looking at a team's record versus their Pythagorean record. What the hell is that? Well, it started as a Bill James baseball measure (what didn't?), taking a team's run totals (both for and against) and projecting the record a team should have from those numbers. It is a good method for showing which teams might be performing well if used midway through the season (be on the lookout for the ~~Devil~~ Rays, by the way--they're not going to be hovering around .500 for long with their run differential), or which teams might be due a bounceback season the next year.

Aside from using different multipliers, it works reasonably the same for football. In theory, most coaches' records should end up right around the +/-0 mark (one year they overachieve their Pythagorean record, the next they underachieve); over time, you can get a good idea of which's coach's teams constantly overachieve or underachieve based on points scored.

So what is Zook's career Pythagorean record? 45-41. Actual record? 41-45. So his teams have done about four games worse than they should, or -0.6 per year. As comparison, Gary Pinkel is -0.1/year, Jim Tressel is +1.0/year, Rich Rodriguez is +0.6/year, and Joe Paterno (over the last seven years) is, strangely, -0.6/year.

Now, none of this conclusively proves that Zook is a good or bad coach--as a whole, Zook doesn't have a wonderful reputation, and these numbers don't prove that perception wrong. But whether he's a truly good or bad coach, he probably needs to start winning this year.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+*: 112.78 (#31)
Success Rate+: 107.74 (#34)
PPP+: 120.88 (#29)

Standard Downs** S&P+: 116.24 (#18)
Passing Downs S&P+: 120.71 (#24)

Redzone S&P+: 110.62 (#39)

Q1 S&P+: 133.72 (#10)
Q2 S&P+: 94.61 (#84)
Q3 S&P+: 132.22 (#9)
Q4 S&P+: 122.71 (#16)

1st Down S&P+: 119.96 (#17)
2nd Down S&P+: 124.41 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 109.85 (#41)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 109.84 (#44)
Rushing SR+: 111.98 (#30)
Rushing PPP+: 108.06 (#56)

Standard Downs: 115.45 (#26)
Passing Downs: 111.13 (#48)

Redzone: 107.07 (#51)

Line Yards+: 110.82 (#29)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.82 (#24)
Passing SR+: 103.80 (#45)
Passing PPP+: 131.89 (#17)

Standard Downs: 118.39 (#20)
Passing Downs: 124.91 (#22)

Redzone: 114.06 (#37)

Adj. Sack Rate***: 6.1% (#68)

* The general S&P+ stat used is really the "Close-Game S&P+" stat you know and love. The definition of "close game" has been expanded (Close game = within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and 16 or less, i.e. two possessions, in the second half). So what that means is that junk time yards/points are not included in these numbers, nor should they be.

** "Standard Downs" = what used to be "Non-Passing Downs". Passing Downs are defined as follows: Second-and-8 or more, third-and-5 or more, fourth-and-5 or more. Anything less than that—any first down, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less, fourth-and-4 or less—are considered Standard Downs because running and passing are more-or-less equal options.

*** Adjusted Sack Rate is a new creation. It simply looks at the average of the Standard Downs and Passing Downs sack rates. As you'll see, combined with Line Yards+, this will give you a pretty good read of O-line performance.

Lots of numbers there, I realize. What do they mean for the most part? In a majority of categories, lllinois ranked between about #25 and #50. Good, not great. The most interesting splits are found in the by-quarter and by-down numbers. Illinois had a great offense in Q1, Q3, and Q4...and were terrible in Q2. Eh? How does that happen? Usually when I look at numbers that are great in the first quarter and bad in the second, I surmise that a coach's gameplanning was good, but the in-game adjustments were lacking.

One encouraging trend for Illinois: their first- and second-down numbers were strong, but they were lacking on third downs. At the pro level, third down success is the last thing to come when a team is learning how to win. That could be good for Illinois in 2009, but...well, they weren't extremely young in 2008, at least not at the QB position. How much development does Juice still have to make?

Quarterback

Will Andre Ware's favorite quarterback finally put all the pieces together his senior year? (via)

2008 Unit Ranking: #22 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Juice Williams (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Eddie McGee (6'4, 210, Jr.)
Jacob Charest (6'4, 220, RSFr.)

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

As you will see throughout the rest of the summer, I've come up with rough ways to rank individual units*--in the case of Juice, it's probably the best possible way to evaluate him without all the contradicting information our eyeballs tell us about him. In the end, the numbers ranked Illinois' QB unit (of which Juice was about 98%) as the 21st unit in the country, 3rd in the Big Ten behind Penn State (#4) and Ohio State (#17) and ahead of Iowa (#34), Minnesota (#39), and Wisconsin (#41). That sounds about right; while the offense wasn't quite as good as it seemed it could be, defensive breakdowns were the bigger problem in 2008.

* I'm sure I'll tweak how I rate them a million times, but I'd say I've already got better methods than these people do.

Oh, and about Eddie McGee. Look, I realize that we Missouri fans are the biggest McGee proponents as there is, but...he's simply not as good as Juice Williams. Yes, he caught Mizzou by surprise in 2007 and almost led a dramatic comeback, but since then, mostly in mop-up time, he's 17-for-33 for 246 yards, a TD, and an INT. Certainly not terrible, but not better than Juice. That said, I love the "Eddie > Juice" meme, and we should absolutely keep it up.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #95 in the nation (#11 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jason Ford (6'0, 230, So.)
Daniel Dufrene (5'11, 205, Sr.)
Mikel Leshoure (6'0, 225, So.)
Troy Pollard (5'8, 185, So.)

Here's where the numbers tell a pretty cruel tale. Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP (EqPts Per Play) despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. What's POE? A new stat, of course! It stands for Points Over Expected. It takes the "expected" value of every carry a team's RBs made based on the opponent's rush defense stats and compares it to the actual output. For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. Combined with good Line Yards figures (meaning the O-line was doing its job), this unit should have produced much more than it did, hence the putrid ratings.

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Are the numbers right? Is he maybe overrated? Sure doesn't seem like it watching him...

2008 Unit Ranking: #24 in the nation (#3 in the Big Ten)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Arrelious Benn (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Jeff Cumberland (6'5, 255, Sr.)
Jarred Fayson (6'0, 215, Jr.)
A.J. Jenkins (6'0, 185, So.)
Chris Duvalt (5'11, 175, Sr.)
Terry Hawthorne (6'0, 170, Fr.)
Fred Sykes (6'0, 185, So.)
Cordale Scott (6'3, 215, So.)
Chris James (6'0, 195, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Michael Hoomanawanui (6'5, 270, Sr.)
Hubie Graham (6'4, 245, So.)
London Davis (6'4, 255, RSFr.)

I still have some work to do on a good Receiver POE number. In its infancy, the number doesn't really think too highly of Arrelious Benn. It says that, over 67 receptions, he only produced 13.80 Points Over Expected, good for only #77 among eligible WRs. It says that of the passes he caught, he really didn't do anything with them beyond what the average receiver would do.

Now, there's a skill in and of itself for catching that many passes, and I will continue to tweak the formulas, but in the meantime Benn only comes in at #77. However, his pass-catching mate, TE-turned-WR-even-though-he-looks-like-a-TE Jeff Cumberland came in at #83, at 13.12, in only 20 catches. This makes a bit of sense, in that Cumberland managed four touchdowns in his 20 catches, while Benn somehow only had three all year (and as we've seen, yards gained are worth more EqPts close to the endzone). Meanwhile, since-departed Will Judson came in at #104.

Having three receivers in the top 104 gave Illinois a pretty decently-ranked WR corps even if the formulas didn't like Benn all that much. Benn and Cumberland return, into Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #37 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Jon Asamoah (G, 6'5, 315, Sr.)
Jeff Allen (T, 6'5, 310, So.)
Eric Block (C, 6'3, 290, Sr.)
Corey Lewis (T, 6'6, 315, So.)
Graham Pocic (G, 6'7, 320, RSFr.)
Craig Wilson (T, 6'5, 320, So.)
Jack Cornell (G, 6'5, 315, So.)
Tyler Sanders (C, 6'5, 295, RSFr.)
Ryan Palmer (T, 6'7, 310, Jr.)
Randall Hunt (G, 6'6, 320, Jr.)

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Summary

Add all this up, and what do we have? A Top 20 quarterback, a Top 20 receiving corps, a Top 50 offensive line, and poor running backs. That gives them distinct advantages and disadvantages against what we think we know about the Mizzou defense. Mizzou's inexperienced-but-athletic defensive line should be able to hold its own against UI's OLs, and the Tiger LB corps could dominate UI's RBs (much like they did last year). But a good WR corps should be able to find holes in a better-but-younger Mizzou secondary, and an experienced QB in Juice Williams should be able to make a few things happen against an overall young Mizzou defense.

Poll

Biggest problem for the Mizzou defense?

QB Juice Williams

43 votes

RBs Dufrene, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard

3 votes

WRs Benn, Cumberland, and Fayson, and TE Hoomanawanui

41 votes

An offensive line led by a solid interior

5 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Jeff Cumberland

Cupcake Wars: Indiana Defeats Illinois 27-14, Plus Discussion of Trent Green's Jaw and Primitive Radio Gods

PILLOWFIGHT TIME LADIES

NOTES ON JUICE AND THE FIGHTING ILLINI

NOTES ON INDIANA AND THE FIGHTING BILL LYNCH'S

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

An early look at Illinois.

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

The Best Wide Receivers in the Big Ten

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Offense

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Biggest problem for the Mizzou defense?

QB Juice Williams

RBs Dufrene, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard

WRs Benn, Cumberland, and Fayson, and TE Hoomanawanui

An offensive line led by a solid interior