SB Nation - Brit Miller

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

Know thy Opponent takeover: Hail to the Orange

BoilerTMill — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:45:55 -0000

The feature returns this week as Toki Wartooth stopped by from the Illinois blog Hail to the Orange to answer some questions about the Illini. I view this game as a major swing game for us. Illinois is a team that feels like it should be much better than it actually is. We get them at home and we have held the Cannon for six years now. Toki talks about Illinois' chances of taking back the Cannon and their ability to get back to a bowl game after falling hard in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago.

Bloggers are contractually obligated to show this picture every time they talk about Ron Zook. It is a fact.

Hammer & Rails: Ron Zook - He's a waterskiing mogul and a hell of a recruiter, but his coaching is still a question mark. Is he really on the hot seat this year? What does he need to do to keep moving forward?

Hail to the Orange: He needs to make the most of what he has. I consider this year the defining season of the Zook era. He has said in the past that you can't really judge a coach's progress until he has had a full recruiting class come in and graduate. His first full recruiting class, with Juice as the crown jewel, are entering their senior year. He has to make a bowl game this year for many people to keep faith in his program. If he can't win with the talent that he has amassed on the field, he may not ever.

H&R: I haven't paid much attention to Illinois for two years since they have been of the schedule. Aside from the Rose Bowl and stadium renovation, what changes can Purdue expect to see since 2006?

HTTO: When last these two teams met, the best receiver on the Illini was a walk-on player whose primary sport was baseball. This year you will see Rejus Benn, Jarred Fayson and probable NFL draft pick TE Mike Hoomanawanui. This team also plays much faster than it used to, helped my the overall upgrade of talent at most positions. The drawback, this team has been making more mistakes and costly penalties the longer that Zook has been here. Imagine having two game winning touchdowns called back in two years because of stupid mistakes.

H&R: Is Juice Williams progressing or regressing as a passer as his career goes on? Would you like to see him throw more or run more?

HTTO: Just looking at his passing yardage from '07 compared to '08 will show that there is concrete evidence that he is getting better as a passer. In the season opener against Mizzou last year he exploded for 450 yards and 5 TDs. Unfortunately one major flaw in his passing game remains, the INTs. His TD/INT ratio was 22/16. If he can keep his TDs up and reduce his INTs by only a third, this team will be frighteningly effective on offense. As for the question about running and passing, it is an interesting fact that even on a team that returns every player that carried the ball last year, Juice is the leading returning rusher. He is perhaps just as dangerous carrying the ball as he is throwing it.

What I would really like to see is a running game that will step up so that Juice will not have to put so much of the offense on his back. Let Jason Ford or Daniel Dufrene get those tough yards. I think Juice is most effective when he can use his arm to get respect from the defense, and still has the option of his legs to improvise and make big plays.

H&R: First J Leman, then Brit Miller. Is it true that Martez Wilson is better than both as a middle linebacker?

HTTO: Well, how do you define better? Because he is bigger and faster than Both Miller and Leman, but he has yet to really breakthrough on the field. He is certainly going to have plenty of opportunities. The last two Illini middle linebackers have led the Big Ten in tackles, so Martez will be involved in alot of plays this year. He has been accused of being a bit lazy on the field by former Illini great Dana Howard, and it is widely believed that if he can commit as much to the play as Brit and J, he will be All Big Ten. Its important not to forget however that while there is alot expected from Tez, he was stabbed several times last December, and no one really knows if it will have an effect on his play.

H&R: Illinois has a strange schedule this year. How much will the pair of tough non-conference games at the end of the schedule affect the season?

HTTO: The more I look at the schedule, the more I like it. This is a schedule that is no cake walk but allows for two bye weeks to allow the Illini time to prepare for @ Ohio State and @ Cincinnati. Playing later in the year is something that many people have clamored for over the years, and should the Illini be in the position to qualify for a bowl game, it should help in that regard. Playing outdoors in Champaign in December on the other hand is going to be one cold ass proposition. And if lets say the Illini at the end of another disappointing season, it could be mighty tough to fill a chilly stadium for a non BCS opponent like Fresno State.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

BoilerTMill — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:07:30 -0000

I am waiting to do a formal wrap of Media Days for either late tonight or early tomorrow, but after seeing some of the other blog coverage I have decided I will be attending next year's event. It's only a short drive to Chicago. Of course, if I win tomorrow night's Powerball I can just hire a lackey to go for me. Wisconsin blogger Adam Hoge at Bucky's Fifth Quarter has a great 1st day wrap up team-by-team. In the mean time, on to the Illinois preview.

It is rare that we have played three non-conference opponents since we last played a conference opponent, but that is the case with each of our next two opponents. We haven't played Illinois or Wisconsin since 2006, but we played Toledo in 2007 and both Oregon and Notre Dame last season. In each case, we are facing a team that will be very unfamiliar to us. Illinois is probably a little more familiar than the Badgers because of quarterback Juice Williams. We did see him and a handful of other guys in 2006, whereas Many of Wisconsin's players were redshirting back then.

Williams is an interesting player. When he is on, the Illini can be one of the best teams in the country. When he is off, the other team often gets the ball in the form of ill-advised passes that turn into interceptions or fumbles. The Illini are quickly entering the realm of Notre Dame and Michigan. They are a team with a superior amount of talent compared to most teams, but that talent grossly underachieves. That sums up Juice Williams in a nutshell, and 2009 is his final chance to impress.

2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5 Big Ten)

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

Someone should let Juice know Anthony Spencer is there to sack and strip the ball from him. Nah, Anthony will do it himself. This is from the 2006 game and it is seconds before Alex Magee recovers a fumble for a huge game-changing TD.

Last Season for the Illini:

This is our least celebrated trophy rivalry. While we play Notre Dame and Indiana each year, Illinois regularly rotates off the schedule. They are technically the closest Big Ten team to West Lafayette, giving reason for the rivalry. Still, they are not a protected rival like Indiana, as Northwestern is our second protected rival. Purdue has a slight three game lead in the Cannon portion of the series thanks to our recent four game winning streak.

Last year was a raging disappointment after Illinois played in Pasadena. It was probably one of the least deserved BCS bowl bids ever, but Illinois did have an impressive 2007 season. It was the Illini's first bowl bid since 2001. Last year was a return to normal for Illinois. A 5-7 finish against a rough schedule has many once again questioning Ron Zook coaching ability.

Would Matt Painter do this?

Illinois really wasn't that far off last year. They played Missouri, Penn State, and Ohio State close in three very tough games. With a bowl bid on the line they folded on the road against Northwestern in the season finale, giving the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk to Northwestern for all time.

Illinois probably plays the manliest non-conference schedule outside of our own. They open in a neutral site game against Missouri again. They then have a home opener against Brock Spack's Illinois State team. Illinois had better hope they have a good Big Ten season, as they finish the year with two tough non-conference games at Big East Champ Cincinnati and at home against Fresno State. Our game comes after a trip to Indiana.

Illinois offense:

The 2008 version of the Illinois offense grossly missed Rashard Mendenhall. After running for a school record 1,681 yards in 2007, no one could match his total. Williams led the team with 719 yards and five touchdowns. Daniel Dufrene tried to replace Mendenhall's production, but added only 663 yards and no touchdowns. Jason Ford didn't have many yards, but he led the team with eight touchdowns as a true freshman. He could see more time in the backfield than Dufrene. Williams has long been a serious rushing threat with over 2,000 yards in his career.

The one knock on Williams has been his passing ability. Yardage-wise, he has always been fine. He will likely leave Illinois as it all-time passing yardage leader, but he has been erratic at best. 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns for 2008 are good. A 57% completion percentage and 16 interceptions are not. Williams has thrown 37 interceptions in 35 career games, so the likelihood of him suddenly cutting down on picks is low. He has actually thrown more interceptions in each successive season so far. The Illini are a better team by far when Williams does not have to throw much.

When he does throw, however, he has perhaps the best receiver in the conference throw to. Arrelious Benn has been almost everything Illinois fans have hoped for the past two seasons. He had 67 catches for 1,055 yards, but only three touchdowns last season. He has just five scores for his career despite impressive numbers elsewhere (sounds like Taylor Stubblefield pre-2004). He has to find the end zone much more often than he has already. Williams has spread his touchdowns around quite a bit. Seven different receivers had at least two scores last season, but no one had more than four. That means there is not one player we can totally focus on in red zone situations. That also makes Williams' rushing ability that much more dangerous.

Illinois must replace its center and left tackle from a line that gave up 25 sacks a year ago. Jon Asamoah at right guard and Jeff Allen at right tackle are both mainstays at 6'5" and 310+ pounds, but the rest of the line is in flux. Eric Block will move from left guard to center. Randall Hunt and Corey Lewis will both be on the left side and each has size at 6'6" and 320+ pounds. We should be able to generate a pass rush, but we have to finish off Williams once we get to him. Of course, to this point we will have faced Chandler Harnish, Jeremiah Masoli, Adam Weber, and Terrelle Pryor. What is one more mobile quarterback?

Illinois Defense:

In CFN's Illinois defensive preview, Pete Fiutak said that Illinois has a tremendous offense and Illinois defense needs to be merely average. I beg to differ. Illinois' offense committed 26 turnovers last year and generated a ton of yards, but not a ton of points. The defense was okay against the pass, but teams ran for more than 150 yards per game against the Illini. It will have to be much better than the merely adequate it was last year. It must also replace linebacker Brit Miller, who led the Illini in virtually every defensive category.

Illinois' defensive line generated 32 sacks, so it could get into the backfield. End Doug Pilcher is the most regular starter that returns, though Josh Brent and Sirod Williams are starters that battled injuries most of the year. Williams and Brent are tackles that should help in run situations. Brent is already on thin ice, however, after an offseason DUI cost him spring practice via suspension. Jerry Brown could also start at the other end position, but his academics are in question.

Martez Wilson is a highly touted recruit that is expected to do even better than Miller and American Hero J Leman at middle linebacker. Wilson played on the outside a year ago and amassed 73 tackles, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries. Illinois has a history of great middle linebackers, and Wilson is expected to be the next one. He'll be joined on the outside by Ian Thomas and Russell Ellington. Both are sophomores with not much experience. Nate Palmer and Justin Staples are both huge linebackers that redshirted last season and could be ready for serious playing time.

Best highlight from our last win over Illinois

The secondary lost a first round pick when the Dolphins drafted cornerback Vontae Davis. He led Illinois in interceptions with just two, but was in on 18 pass break ups. As a whole, Illinois picked off only six passes. Dere Hicks at cornerback and Donsay Hardeman at safety are the only two returning players that had an interception last year. Hardeman is a senior in his second season after being a very promising JUCO transfer last season. With 44 tackles and a pick he is expected to make an even bigger leap in year two. Garrett Edwards and Travon Bellamy should also see some time at safety, especially since Hardeman is recovering from a neck injury.

As a whole, this is a defense that is battling some serious injury and discipline issues. There is talent, but no less than four key players are uncertain because of injury, academics, or discipline. They aren't a group that will pick off a ton of passes and they could be susceptible against the run.

Illinois Special Teams:

Matt Eller is a decent sophomore kicker, hitting 15 of 20 field goals in his rookie year. He was not a weapon on kickoffs though. Illinois gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns and almost 25 yards per return. That means we should be able to get decent field position. The punting was almost equally awful. Opponents averaged 11 yards per return and Anthony Santella averaged less than 40 yards per kick.

In the return game we must keep our eyes on Benn. While he hasn't broken a return for a touchdown, he has the ability to do so. He'll handle both kick and punt return duties. We can't kick away from him on kickoffs, either. A.J. Jenkins averaged 22.3 yards per return with a touchdown last year as the second half of a dangerous return tandem.

Intangibles:

With this game being the seventh on the schedule for the Illini it presents an interesting situation. Illinois has an absolutely brutal slate before this game. The only sure wins are Illinois State and Indiana. There is a very strong chance they will be 2-4 with losses to Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State. That would make our game a must win possibly to save Ron Zook's job.

Personally, I view it a must win for us. If we're going to go bowling we have to get the four most winnable games we play at home against Toledo, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and Illinois. It is probably the biggest swing game we face all year. Win, and we may only need a late season win at Indiana to go to a bowl. Lose, and we'll need a home upset over Michigan State, a road upset at Wisconsin, or an unlikely win at Michigan.

Those two factors are huge. We could have a lot to play for given our coaching situation and expectations, while Illinois may have nothing to play for given theirs. I am still not sold on Zook's coaching talent. Illinois managed to parlay one big upset at Ohio State into a Rose Bowl berth. That is really all they have accomplished as a program since 2001. Even with a talent advantage over most teams they have a worse track record than Notre Dame in terms of developing that talent and getting the most out of it. Of all the programs in the Big Ten, Illinois seems to be the one that has the wildest fluctuations. In this decade alone they have either played in a BCS bowl or no bowl at all. 2009 looks to fit right in with that history. They have the talent to be in the BCS, but the result could be very different.

Game Outlook:

I am excited to see an erratic passer in Juice Williams face off against one of the best secondaries in the Big Ten. I am even more excited that new defensive coordinator Donn Landholm stresses creating turnovers against a team that is turnover prone. Williams has certainly improved since 2006, but that game was a nightmare for him. With an even worse defense than we have now, Williams turned the ball over four times... in five plays.

Offensively, we should have some room to run the ball. All we need to do is give Elliott time to throw and the Illinois secondary isn't known for its tight coverage. I really like or chances going into this game, and it needs to end as a win.

Prediction:

I am not sold on Illinois. Maybe Toki from Hail To The Orange will have some things to say that will convince me otherwise, but I think Illinois is going to have a rough year. It will also cost Ron Zook his job. I think Purdue holds its own at home and gets a step closer to bowl eligibility. Purdue 27, Illinois 21

Wrapping up Day 1 team-by-team

Adam Hoge — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 00:01:12 -0000

More photos » by JOE RAYMOND - AP

Pat Fitzgerald wanted to make it clear that he did vote for Tim Tebow. (AP Photo/Joe Raymond)

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CHICAGO - As usual, the theme of the day was comparing the Big Ten to the SEC. For the sake of my own sanity, I am going to avoid the topic all together as I wrap-up the day. The SEC is better now, three years ago it wasn't and three years from now the Big Ten might be better.... who cares?

Northwestern - Just one minute into the day, we already had the answer to our most burning question: Who didn't vote for Tim Tebow?!?

"I want to make sure I make my vote crystal clear," NU head coach Pat Fitzgerald said. "I did vote for Tim Tebow, so I want to make sure there's no questions about that."

When asked what the next step was for the NU football program, Fitzgerald gave a very diplomatic answer, saying the Cats had to "continue the academic success" and "continue to have our strength staff and speed staff develop our young men the way that will help us continue to have the competitive depth." Of course, continuing to do two things you already do has nothing to do with the "next step" but he did say "that will result in victories on the field."

When asked about former UW and current NU defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz, Fitz said: "Hank is just a consummate football coach and a tremendous man and a great teacher and a great leader." Hmm... sounds like the kind of man the Badger defense could use. Oh, wait...

Fitz went on to joke about not having to play Michigan and Ohio State this season. He claimed he was "heart-broken" and was going to "file a grievance." For some reason, I doubt he will.

Illinois - Do Ron Zook and Bruce Weber spend their summers constantly yelling at each other in fear of the day where their voice might actually sound normal? I swear these two guys enter every season with their voice already shot to hell.

Despite the sometimes entertaining raspy voice, Zook gets nominated for the most boring press conference of the day. Not a whole lot here, except he expects big seasons out of Arrelious Benn and Martez Wilson. Wilson has switched to Mike linebacker and Zook said, "I think [Wilson] wants to pattern himself after Brit and after J," of course referring to former Illinois middle linebackers Brit Miller and J Leman. I have a feeling he will be faster and better than both of them.

Michigan - You know your not a very good football team when... you get asked about your punter. Granted Zoltan Mesko might be the best punter in college football, but I'm guessing Rich Rodriguez would rather be fielding questions about star quarterbacks and wide receivers rather than a star punter.

As far as the true freshman quarterback Rich Rod hopes might become a star: "You get nervous as a coach when you talk about possibly playing true freshman anywhere, particularly at quarterback. But I have all the confidence in the world that our coaches and Tate [Forcier] will put the work in to get ready."

Purdue - So an hour or two after a press conference, a transcript of the press conference is made available to the media. It's interesting that a key phrase in one of Danny Hope's answers was left out of the printed transcript. When asked about the Purdue-Indiana rivalry, Hope said:

"We don't like them, they don't like us, and that's what makes it fun."

That phrase was suspiciously missing in the printed transcript.

Meanwhile, the winner of the "Student Reporter who got Embarrassed by a Head Coach Award" goes to Stephanie Kuzydym from the Indiana Daily Student who asked Hope what his favorite IU-Purdue rivalry joke was.

"I'm not foolish enough to say that today," Hope said. "That's why we play the game young lady."

Minnesota - Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany made an interesting comment today when he said, "The twelfth game, probably too often, has gone to an opponent that is a home game and one that you have a really good chance of winning against, to be honest about it."

Obviously that comment scores some points for Badger fans around the country who are tired of the games against Cal Poly and Wofford, but if there is one guy that can't be criticized for scheduling softly, it's Tim Brewster. The Minnesota head coach couldn't help but brag about a game that isn't even on his 2009 schedule, but you can't really blame him for looking ahead when he is bragging about playing USC in 2010.

Brewster also made some news today by admitting that he looks "forward to the day when we add a team and we split the divisions and we play for a championship on national TV on a Saturday night in December."

Kudos to Brewster, who continues to steal the show every year at Big Ten Media Days.

Ohio State - The Buckeyes were once again picked to win the Big Ten (including by yours truly), but with Navy, USC and Illinois on the schedule (all at home) in the first four weeks of the season Jim Tressel knows "we're going to need to grow up very, very quickly."

As far as replacing Beanie Wells, Tressel said: "Danny Herron and Brandon Saine, it's their time to step up."

Indiana - Obviously the Hoosiers aren't very good, so a lot of the talk was about some changes IU has made to improve the "game day" atmosphere. That apparently included Bill Lynch visiting the fraternites and sororities on campus, something Bret Bielema did a couple of years ago.

"The sororities were a lot better than the fraternities," Lynch said, laughing.

Michigan State - For me, the shocker of the day was seeing Michigan State picked to finish third in the pre-season media poll. But to be honest, it's a toss0up as to which team is the third best in the conference right now and someone had to win it (I picked Illinois third after Ohio State and Penn State, respectively).

Obviously the Spartans were a good football team last year, but they got hammered by Ohio State and Penn State. Mark Dantonio knows that winning those games this year will determine whether or not Sparty can compete for the conference crown.

"When you look at the score last year, not very close," Dantonio said. "Again, I think we could have played better in both of those games. But as I said earlier, one of the biggest goals is we need to play up, play to the best of our ability, and overachieve when we play those people. That's what it's going to take. We have to develop a certain amount of confidence to play at that level. They're both outstanding programs, and we got handled in both cases."

Iowa - All the sudden Kirk Ferentz is the second-longest tenured coach in the Big Ten, but he doesn't think that gives him any kind of advantage because when other teams change staffs, he said you have to start from scratch when preparing to play those teams.

"In our case, we rotate our schedule every two years, so you're almost starting over there again when you don't play a team for a couple years," Ferentz said. "You know, so I don't know that it's real prominent. It really isn't."

And since Ferentz was the last head coach of the day and there had been so much talk about the Big Ten vs. the SEC, one reporter had to check to make sure Iowa beat an SEC team last season.

"Did you guys beat an SEC team in the bowl game last year," the reporter asked.

"Yeah, it was South Carolina."

Just checking, I guess.

(More on Wisconsin, Penn State and Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney in later posts.)

Illini Unit Breakdown: the Linebackers.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:00:17 -0000

At the University of Illinois the position of Middle Linebacker has some special importance. No we don't have the long list of stand out LB's that Penn State churns out over the years, but MLB on the Illini has usually been a stand out position with some great players that have played over the years. Recently of course Brit Miller and J Leman (Real American Hero) have occupied the position and lead the league in tackles. But Kevin Hardy and Dana Howard have won Butkus awards here,* and of course the greatest linebacker of them all, Dick Butkus himself.

The position of course is already very important, and is usually reserved for the best and most reliable LB. MLBs have to be very athletic to play pass D and stop the run, and are generally considered the quarterback of the defense. A vocal leader for the defense like J and Brit have been in years past. So who is going to be the man with all of this pressure on his shoulders this fall.

Who will be starting? The answer of course is the player with the most tackles of all returners (73) and without question the linebacker with the most pure talent, Martez Wilson. Tez moves into the middle after his first season of playing full time at line backer and without question having some success but not near as much as many had expected. Tez was, along with Benn, one of the recruiting crown jewels of Zook's 2007 recruiting class. While making solid contributions and getting good stats, (3 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss) he has not had the sort of break out performance someone with his sort of Star Rating would suggest. Dana Howard was quoted last year, questioning whether or not Tez was giving the game his all. “In the Missouri game I saw some lackadaisical things where it was almost as if he was lost. I’m not trying to dog him. He’s a great talent. But I don’t think he realizes what he really has.”

What he does have is the build and tools of an NFL linebacker. He is 6-4 240 and runs a 4.5 40. He will have an upper hand athletically over most of the players he faces this fall. All he has to do, is show that he is ready to take that step, with his assumption of the middle he will have a lot of opportunities to do so.

But there are, of course two other starting positions up for grabs. Phil Steele predicts that sophomores Ian Thomas and Russel Ellington will likely be the outside linebackers on either side of Tez. Losing Brit and Sam Carson from last year has left somewhat of a vacuum at the LB spot outside of Martez. Thomas and Ellington both played last year as freshmen but combined for only 12 tackles in the time they did see. The lack of experience will definitely be a concern, but both Thomas and Ellington are fast with around a 4.6 40 YD time each. Ellington will be in his second year after being converted from a WR so there should be some improvement for him as he gets more comfortable at the position. If there are problems though, or he performs well at Camp Rantoul, JUCO transfer Aaron Gress could take the starting job. Gress is a 3 Star prospect who was specifically recruited by Zook to shore up the losses to graduation among the linebackers. He will see many downs this fall, whether starting or not.

Possible Star: Do I even need to bother typing this. Martez Wilson, above all others has the potential to be all Big Ten, even All American if he plays the the potential everyone believes he has. The only gripe seems to be that he hasn't done so yet. Other factors going against him are his suspension at the end of last year at the Northwestern game, because he violated team rules, and the fact that Martez was the victim of a stabbing incident at Fubar last December. Apparently he has recovered from his wounds and will be completely fine to play this fall. Tez wants to go to the league, and he wants to go after his junior year. Up til now he hasn't shown the scouts enough to warrant the first round selection I'm sure he wants. A breakout year this year, ala Rashard Mendenhall 2007, would do the trick for his draft stock. Stat wise being in the middle is sure to mean more tackles for Tez. In a recent interview with Jim Turpin and Loren Tate, J Leman explained that the defensive scheme that Zook has in place always favors the MLB because there is very little pass coverage involved. So one way or another expect Tez's impact on the field to be much larger than in years past.

What to expect: When a unit loses 2 starters to graduation and the third changes position, you can never really be positive how things will shake out. The replacements are supposedly very athletic and could very well prove to be better than their predecessors. However all in all there is very little experience with the linebackers. Last year the team struggled at times against good running backs (Washington from Mizzou, Beanie Wells from OSU) and mobile QBs (Pryor and Clark) having the most talented player on the defense in the middle of the action and most responsible for taking down the runner can only help us. But I worry that in the early match ups against OSU and PSU in back to back weeks the inexperience could be exploited and some very big plays could bust through. Lets just hope that these newer players learn a lot from Camp Rantoul, Mizzou and Illinois State, because they could be the key to stopping Daryl Clark or Terrel Pryor, and getting the Illini in line for a Big Ten Championship.

Projected Panthers 2009 Depth Chart: Linebackers

MichaelProcton — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:56:50 -0000

Recently, the Panthers have had one of the deepest LB corps in the league, full of guys with speed and ability. It's clear that the team values the position, as they've not only had up to eight roster spots used on the position (nine if LS Jason Kyle is counted), but also have shown they're willing to pick up talent there even if the depth chart has them blocked initially. Both Jon Beason and Dan Connor were drafted early with no regard for the fact that neither seemed to have a starting spot available to them. Beason, however, took the reins early in his 2007 rookie season after a Dan Morgan injury, and Connor showed he could be a valuable contributor on special teams even if he wasn't getting defensive playing time, leading the team in ST tackles prior to a torn ACL while covering a kickoff in the third game of the season against the Vikings. After the jump, we'll take a look at how this year's LB depth chart is shaping up.

LOLB	MLB	ROLB
Na'il Diggs	Jon Beason	Thomas Davis
Landon Johnson	Dan Connor	James Anderson

Last season, the Panthers carried seven linebackers on their 53-man roster (not including Jason Kyle, who was listed at the position, but was exclusively a long-snapper). All six of the players listed above were members of the opening day roster, but the Panthers also saw a couple players who were on the active roster leave in the offseason. Adam Seward, a backup MLB who played exclusively on special teams in an injury-riddled '08 season, signed a one-year deal with the Colts and is currently listed as their top backup at MLB. Donte' Curry, a special teams ace who found a roster spot after Dan Connor's season-ending knee injury, was second on the team in special teams tackles in just 13 games, but was not resigned by the Panthers and is currently a free agent.

Now, a look at the players on the current 80-man roster.

Jon Beason (3rd year, University of Miami) - 6'0", 237: Beason has been a sensation since he entered the league. He set a Panthers record for tackles in his rookie season and engaged in a very close Defensive Rookie of the Year race with Patrick Willis of the 49ers. In his second year, he showed an even more diverse range of skills, increasing his interceptions from 1 to 3, including two important picks that helped close out wins against Arizona and Green Bay. He also had an interception in the playoff loss and total of 9 PDs on the year, showing he is primed to be a force in coverage under Ron Meeks, who has shown a willingness to let his linebackers get involved in the passing game in the past. Perhaps most impressively, though, he played most of the season with a torn labrum suffered in the week 8 win against the Cardinals, an injury that occurred just two plays before the aforementioned INT. As Beason put it,

I was basically playing with no strength. When I tackled someone it was almost like throwing a pillow at them. I had no grip in that arm, no way to stop someone. I played like that the rest of the season, just fighting to get the job done. It took away my range of motion. But I know my teammates would do the same for me.

Impressive willpower and drive on his part. He's only 24, and should only continue to get better as Carolina's rock-solid MLB for years to come.

Thomas Davis (5th year, Georgia) - 6'0", 240: Davis was moved to the third position of his NFL career last year, and he may have finally found a home at weakside linebacker. He was able to establish new career highs in tackles, sacks, and PDs as the coaching staff found a way to take advantage of Davis' speed and reaction instincts while finding a way to minimize his occasional struggles in coverage which were more apparent at safety and LOLB. This coming year will be an important one for Davis, as the Panthers have allowed him to reach the final year of his rookie deal. With a young gun in Dan Connor likely ready to take over next year, Davis will be playing for a job one way or another.

Na'il Diggs (10th year, Ohio St.) - 6'4", 240: Diggs arrived in Carolina before the 2006 season as an affordable veteran who could add depth to the position and perhaps compete for a starting spot, but Diggs had other ideas. He's started 35 of the last 45 games at OLB for the Panthers, and is currently the starter at strong-side LB. Last season, he fought off a challenge by Landon Johnson, a free agent with a much bigger contract than Diggs, and he will likely have to fight for this job against both Johnson and Dan Connor, but at this point, his steady play likely makes him a clear favorite to win the position. Diggs is a solid player and a good special teams contributor, if not a flashy, big-impact player (involved in just two turnovers in his three years here.) I'd say he'll probably win this job unless Johnson or Connor very clearly outplay him during the preseason or camp, but even if he doesn't, he'll likely be kept around, as he's under contract for a very cap-friendly average of $1.25 million over the next two years.

Landon Johnson (6th year, Purdue) - 6'2", 232: Johnson was the Panthers' biggest free agent signing of the '08 offseason, but was largely a disappointment in his first year as a Panther following a successful start to his career in Cincinnati (average of 13 GS and 100 tackles.) He had shown the ability to start at all LB positions, but struggled to pick up the defense here, and made most of his contributions on special teams, including a forced fumble on KR Skyler Green of New Orleans which was recovered and returned for a TD by Dante Wesley, points that proved crucial in a 33-31 victory that secured the division crown. Johnson was considered a candidate to be released this offseason, but restructured his deal in a way that allowed the team to keep him and save the same amount. He will continue to be a special teams stalwart and will compete with Diggs and Connor to start at LOLB.

Dan Connor (2nd year, Penn St.) - 6'2", 231: Connor was a surprising third-round draft pick by the Panthers in 2008, who already seemed to be set at the linebacker position. As a projected first round pick by some, though, his value was simply too high to pass up when the Panthers pick came at #74 and Connor was still on the board. Connor rewarded their diligence, too, leading the team in special teams tackles as a standout on both kick and punt coverage through the first two-plus games. However, during the third game against the Vikings, Connor tore his ACL while covering on a kickoff and required season-ending surgery, although he actually covered one more kickoff after the injury. Connor was profiled as a solid, instinctive player with the ability to play any of the LB spots, and there was actually some talk early last summer that he could take over the MLB spot and the team would move Jon Beason to the outside, where he began his career before a Dan Morgan injury moved him to the inside. Connor should continue to be a presence on special teams and will compete to start at LOLB.

James Anderson (4th year, Virginia Tech) - 6'2", 235: Anderson is a former third-round pick who has never quite lived up to expectations, although the talent in front of him has had much to do with that. He was retained with the low RFA tender offer ($1.01 million) which would have returned a 3rd-round pick to the team had he been signed away, but received no interest on the FA market. Anderson only played defense in two games last year, and has started just three games in his three years here, so he is the most likely of our veteran linebackers to be cut, to which his non-guaranteed salary also contributes. Still, he should have a leg up on the remaining candidates to make the roster, who are all undrafted free agents with fewer than two years of experience in the league.

Jeremy Leman (2nd year, Illinois) - 6'2", 240: Leman is a former college All-American who went undrafted in 2008 and spent the preseason with the Vikings before being released in the final round of cuts. He was regarded as an instinctive player with high football IQ who lacked the physical attributes to be an NFL player. Chance of making team: 3.75%

Anthony Heygood (rookie, Purdue) - 6'1", 225: Heygood is a former running back who converted to linebacker and started for two years. He was considered a draftable prospect by some sources, and despite his inexperience at the position, he was a productive player due to his athleticism and instincts, and was voted the team's MVP by his teammates this past season. His future in the NFL--if he has one--is likely as a special teams demon and at the weakside LB position. Chance of making team: 6%

Mortty Ivy (rookie, West Virginia) - 6'1", 239: Ivy was another possible late-round pick who was a three-year starter. He likely projects as an OLB in the pros, but he also got some experience in the middle, and could conceivably play there in the NFL if he improves his football awareness. He was a first team All-Big East player for the 2008 season, and once came back from a torn ACL in April to play in 11 games for WVU. Like Leman, and unlike Heygood, he is considered a player who has used his intangibles to overcome a lack of extraordinary physical abilities. Chance of making team: 4%

EDIT: A girl I work with who's a WVU fan says, and I quote, "He's good." So I think that tells me two things: relatively casual fans of the team are aware of his existence, which means he was making plays, and they don't hate him. So those aren't bad things. :)

EDIT: These next two guys have been cut as of 6/30, but I'll leave their profiles for posterity's sake.

Brit Miller (rookie, Illinois) - 6'0", 243: After playing alongside Leman on the outside, he took over the MLB spot last year and was incredibly productive, leading the Big Ten in tackles per game at 11+. He is an experienced (38 career starts), huge LB, but there are concerns about his tackling technique, conditioning ("He's one of the only LBs in FBS with a gut"), and work ethic. A message board post compared Leman and Miller thusly:

J (Jeremy) was just a very emotional and smart player, but he has physical limitations. Brit is built better, he's much faster, he's better in coverage, and he's more versatile.

Chance of making team: 3.5%

Mike Juergens (rookie, Wyoming) - 6'3", 230: Juergens was a two-year starter at OLB who led the Cowboys in sacks last year. He posted decent numbers in the agility tests at his pro day with a 7.16 three-cone drill time, a 4.27 short shuttle time, and a 12.00 in the long shuttle. Chance of making team: .01%

Poll

Will we see any of the rookie linebackers make the team in favor of a veteran?

Yes

64 votes

No

154 votes

218 votes | Poll has closed

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

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Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Brit Miller

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

Know thy Opponent takeover: Hail to the Orange

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

Wrapping up Day 1 team-by-team

Illini Unit Breakdown: the Linebackers.

Projected Panthers 2009 Depth Chart: Linebackers

Will we see any of the rookie linebackers make the team in favor of a veteran?

Yes

No

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

LB Martez Wilson

DE Jerry Brown

FS Donsay Hardeman

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch