SB Nation - Jon Asamoah

The Illini All Decade Team: 1st Team Offense

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:21:50 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Behold the fruits of cooperation!

The following is a joint production of yours truly and friend of the site TheSportsBank.net. We have collaborated here to produce the definitive Illini All Decade Team for 2000 through 2009. We will have a 1st Team defense, a second team and the same for the basketball team (hooray!) For a team that went nearly 30 games under .500 for the decade, you would be surprised how much talent we managed to concentrate on one speculative team. Any way on with the show, the 1st Team offense for the 2000's

First team offense lloyd By Paul M. Banks & Paul Schmidt of The Sports Bank and Joe Kutsunis of Hail to the Orange, "Home of the Blogging Illini" First team Offense

QB Kurt Kittner - Though he only played two seasons this decade, Kittner deserves the nod here. He led the team to the Sugar Bowl and a Big Ten Championship in 2001, and did it without the benefit of a great running back corps (undersized Rocky Harvey and bulky Antoineo Harris the main contributors). With the passing game being the main focus of the offense, Kittner was still able to dissect opposing defenses. Still, it was a close finish between him, Juice Williams and surprisingly Jon Beutjer (whose career stats are surprisingly impressive – like second all-time in Illini history for passing efficiency). Kittner’s overall winning record as a starter pushes him over the top.

RB Rashard Mendenhall – Statistically, he doesn’t match up, finishing seventh all-time on the Illini rushing list, behind Antoineo Harris (2nd), Rocky Harvey (5th) and Pierre Thomas (6th), all prominent Illini runners this decade. In the end, only one number really matters: 1,681. That’s his rushing total from the Champaign Campaign season of 2007. The highest single-season in Illinois history by 350 yards. Another number from that season? 17 – the number of touchdowns that ‘Shard rushed for that season; also the best. Quite simply, it was the best season by a running back in Illinois history, and the Illini don’t make the Rose Bowl or win more than 5 games without him, the Silver Football winner (Big Ten MVP) from that year

FB Carey Davis – Fullbacks in the early part of the decade held a special place in the heart of many Illini fans, and perhaps more importantly, in the heart of Ron Turner. Carey Davis was easily one of the best fullbacks (statistically) in Illini history. Over 1,000 career rushing yards, 114 receptions and 750 receiving yards land him the first spot. Also, it should be mentioned that any time not spent catching trademarked Ron Turner swing passes was spent lead blocking for the number 2 rusher in Illinois history

WR Brandon Lloyd – The best receiver of the decade, and would have been the career leader in receiving yards in Illini history (over the GREAT David Williams) had he not suffered a freak injury prior to the 2000 campaign (when, in running and trying to catch up to some teammates, he got his foot stuck between a curb and a parking block and broke his leg in two places). He is one of only two wide receivers in Illinois history to have more than one 1,000 yard season (again, Williams), and has two of the top-six receiving seasons in Illini history. He was a game-breaker despite his size and was the perfect deep threat for the Kittner-era Illini.

WR Walter Young – Sixth all-time in receptions, and is the reason that people in Champaign think that Eddie McGee can be a wide receiver. Young was a heralded quarterback coming out of Rich East High School (SICA!!!), showing great athleticism and ability in his game. Turner and his coaching staff immediately converted Young to WR, and proceeded to use him in creative ways throughout his career; sometimes as a decoy, but later as a legitimate receiving threat, amassing over 1,700 of his 2,300 receiving yards in his last two seasons. At 6-5, 220 pounds, he was a complete mismatch for most defensive backs, never more evident than in his Sugar Bowl performance against LSU, when he made six catches for 178 yards and two scores.

WR Arrelious Benn – How good is Rejus Benn? Even with a miserable 2009 season where he only had 429 yards and one touchdown, Benn moved up to fifth-all-time in receptions in Illinois history, and still ranks as the second or third wide receiver on most major draft boards. Statistically, he is one of the top WRs in Illinois history: Fourth all-time in all-purpose yards, sixth in receiving yards and he absolutely OWNED Penn State when the Illini played them (almost 13% of his career all-purpose yards came in three games against the Nittany Lions). Where Benn ends up among all-time Illini (or in the rankings of Illini who were underachieving enigmas) will depend on whether or not he comes back for his senior season.

For an interview where Benn discusses his chances of returning, click here

OFFENSIVE LINE Duke Preston, Jon Asamoah, Marques Sullivan, Tony Pashos and David Diehl The offensive line was ridiculously hard to select. However, it seemed as though there would be one easy way to choose who belonged on the first team, and who belonged on the second team – Experience in the NFL. All of the players listed above were drafted and started on various NFL squads except for Asamoah – and that is only because he won’t be drafted until NEXT decade; Asamoah still projects out as the top guard in the draft headed into the combines, and was a second-team All-American.

For an exclusive interview profile of Asamoah click here

As for the rest of the linemen, Preston has played 59 games in the NFL, and started 20; Sullivan (already retired) was a four-year starter, a first-team Playboy All-American, a third-team FWAA All-American, and two-year starter for the Buffalo Bills in '02-'03. He is also a member of this site's Facebook group, and reads this site regularly, so that's yet another reason he had to be choosen. Pashos was First Team All-Big Ten '01 & '02, and has started 54 games in the NFL at RT, appearing in 69 (currently on injured reserve with the 49ers). Diehl has had the most successful career of any lineman, winning a Super Bowl with the Giants in 2008, starting almost every game since his rookie year in 2003. Diehl also recently signed a 6 year, 31 million dollar contract extension, just in case anyone is looking to borrow some money from someone. Hey, he did give the University that sweet new weight room.

PK Jason Reda – One of the strongest and most accurate legs coming out of college, but somehow never parlayed that into a professional career. Still, Reda's the easy choice – He is, after all, the all-time leading scorer in Illinois history. Let’s say that again one more time for you: No player in Illinois history has ever scored more points than Reda. Throw in two of the most accurate kicking seasons in Illinois history (the second and sixth), and the fact he was the most accurate kicker with at least 50 attempts, and Reda on the first team was like complaining and whining in an Avril Lavigne song; an absolute certainty.

The Final Word on the 2009 Fighting Illini football Season

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:47:49 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Browse more photos »

I really did not want to write this post. This season was so bad that we have known for many weeks that there would be very little positive that could be taken from it. It was a season that will be defined by let downs, unmet expectations and uncertainty.

Like I did at the end of last year's basketball season, I have assess to what expectations I wish to hold this team. At the beginning of the season, after reading my Phil Steele and feeling about as confident as I ever have about this team, I said that this season would probably be an 8-4 year, with losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Cincinnati and one team we should not lose to. That's a bowl, a solid season and in a situation that gives you a good feeling about the future.

Phil Steele said we would finish 3rd in the conference, and that there was an outside chance we would go undefeated. If there is anyone more upset with Ron Zook right now than Phil Steele, I would like to meet him, because this 3-9 season has got to hurt his credibility.

You know what might be the worst thing about this year? That the defense by the final three weeks was completely unable to make a stop and the offense was putting up sick numbers on otherwise good teams. The polar opposite of the beginning of the year where the defense would hang tough for 3 quarters before folding from exhaustion at the end, and got no support from the vaunted offense.

That offense that finally got its feet under it in the second half of the year put Illini fans through some awfully difficult to watch games early in the year. It would move the ball down the field and then lose the ball in one disastrous way after another. Fumbles and penalties and interceptions, groan. The offense at times was literally tripping over its own feet and keeping itself from success. There were lots of problems from receivers like Fayson and Cumberland who disappointed in their production, to Arrelious Benn who just plain was not thrown to enough. (double standard maybe, but which of these 3 is getting first round money?) One of the weapons I was looking forward to seeing better used this year was Uh-oh who outside of a catch here or there was either not thrown to or was sidelined with injury.

The running game would eventually prove to be one of the bright spots of the team, but early on it too was inconsistent, and underused more than likely due to all of the talent we perceived ourselves to have a wide receiver. Mikel Leshoure needs to get the ball more next year than any of the other backs, I don't care what playing time has been promised to the others. He is your go-to back, no excuses.

As for Juice, I still feel bad the way his final season as an Illini ended up. When he is allowed to play his game, the game he excels at, the game that got him to the Rose Bowl, it can be plainly seen how much of a threat he can be to defenses. He is as classy as football players get, even through being pulled earlier this season and then being put back in without any fanfare. He is your all time offensive yards leader, he will go down as one of the most important players to this school, and I for one wish things would have gone better for him. Maybe I am biased, going to school at Illinois during the Rose Bowl run will probably tend to do that.

As for the defense many of the problems that plagued it at the beginning of the season still plagued it at the end, but to a greater degree. There are some spots on defense of real strength, most notably defensive tackle, but the weak points were never fully shored up. I suppose some of this can be blamed on injury the losses of Martez Wilson, Miami Thomas and intermittently Donsay Hardeman combined with youth and inexperience in other areas to create at best an inconsistent defense.

The season just never really got off to the start it was supposed to. The loss to Missouri I really think sent this team into a tailspin and had it under perform its own ability from then on. I believe to some degree it was not as good as advertised, but its talent level is not as bad as its record. Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State did just as some predicted and put the Illini in a hole that they were never really fully able to pull themselves out of. If the Illini take one of those three games, I don't believe they lose to either Purdue or Indiana. This team should have been at least a 6-6 team. You can blame the coaches for panicking maybe, or the players for despairing, or the AD for giving the team a schedule that seems hell bent against going to a bowl. Whatever the reason this team was not put into a position to succeed, and underperformed.

There are still some bright spots to look forward to, somewhat at least. Terry Hawthorne, whatever position he is going to play, on whatever side of the ball, is going to be one of the better players for this team. He ended up being the best defensive back after being converted to the position halfway through the season. Jacob Charest emerged as the probable starting QB for next year, with Eddie McGee moving to receiver, a position he proved better at than many established players.

For all the problems this team has had it still has talent. Right now both Jon Asamoah and Arrelious Benn are projected first round draft picks. Along with Rashard Mendenhall from two years ago and Vontae Davis last year that will make three years in a row with a first rounder. Thats not something that usually happens to consistently bad teams. But to us, it has.

I don't know what next year really holds. There are a lot of rumors of firings and transfers that will be decided in the next several week, so I could not really tell you in what direction the team will ultimately go. The two indicators we do have though are next year's schedule and recruiting, and both of those point to another losing season. See you this summer football, I hope under better circumstances.

Friday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:05:38 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

Browse more photos »

Considering there are 13 games on today, we'll do a double-shot of watch notes this weekend.

• Rutgers junior Anthony Davis is emerging as perhaps the second-best tackle prospect in the nation after Oklahoma State's Russell Okung. Davis has a body that is NFL ready and he is at times dominant. Davis can struggle against speed rushers, but he's an elite run-blocking tackle.

Also in the Rutgers/Lousville game, keep an eye on Scarlet Knight cornerback Devin McCourty. The senior is slightly undersized, but he has great athleticism. He's really come on as the season has progressed and may be a solid mid-round talent.

• Auburn's run offense is one of the best in the nation, so today could be a showcase day for Alabama middle linebacker Rolando McClain. The leader of the Crimson Tide defense has the task of tracking down the Tiger's Ben Tate, a talented mid-round prospect. If you watch this game today, watch how McClain leads his defense and how he gets off blocks.

Auburn has its own stellar junior middle linebacker in Josh Bynes. He leads the team in tackles with 84 to go along with seven pass breakups, four tackles for a loss and a sack. Bynes is a physical run defender and a good 3-4 middle linebacker prospect.

• Everyone talks about Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh, and justly so, but don't sleep on redshirt sophomore Jared Crick. The defensive tackle has 14 tackles for a loss, nine sacks and two fumble recoveries this season. He's big at 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds and should only get stronger. If he enters the draft, don't be shocked if he's taken in the first 75 picks.

• Sleeper alert: Ohio wide receiver Taylor Price is an athletic freak. He reportedly runs the 40-yard dash in the mid-4.3 range and has good size at 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds. On the year, Price has 48 receptions for 639 yards and five touchdowns.

• Illinois might be having a disappointing season, but that's not because of the play of guard Jon Asamoah. The senior is a good telephone booth blocker and has good footwork. He's kind of a tweener tackle/guard kind of lineman, but he'll offer a team solid late-round depth.

• As mentioned here last week, Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour is starting to put together a phenomenal season. On the season, he's completing 70 percent of his passes with 2,627 yards, 21 touchdowns and five interceptions. Look for him to have another stellar day today against a weak Northern Illinois defense.

All-Big Ten Awards Announced, Swept Once Again By Toto

Oops Pow Surprise — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:00:45 -0000

by Charlie Neibergall - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Northwestern won 17-10. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

View full size photo »

Good news, everyone!* The Big Ten announced its picks for the all-conference teams. Naturally, the offensive and defensive player of the year are both Terrelle Pryor. Okay, not true; he's not even honorable mention.

But there's plenty of actual good news. First, the devil media named Kirk Ferentz coach of the year, and here he is reminding them that they can go suck it and he hasn't forgiven them for the slights of the regular season.

Such language, Kirk!

As for the players, here's the link to the voting results. The media named Bryan Bulaga to the first team on offense, while the second team featured four of his friends from the line: Rafael Eubanks, Dace Richardson, Kyle Calloway, and Tony Moeaki.

On defense, the first team had a little more Iowa representation; Adrian Clayborn, Pat Angerer, and Tyler Sash all received their no-brainer merits. On the second team, Brett Greenwood and Amari Spievey. Iowa put eight players on the media's honorable mention team: Ryan Donahue, Broderick Binns, A.J. Edds, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Karl Klug, Daniel Murray, Adam Robinson, and Ricky Stanzi.

Not surprisingly, the coaches had a slightly higher opinion of the Hawkeyes; here's the link to their voting results. Bryan Bulaga was named their offensive lineman of the year(!!!), an award the media doesn't give out. Bulaga is joined on the first team by Moeaki and Richardson, both of which are worthy selections. Calloway and Eubanks didn't make the second team--not sure why on Calloway--but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos snuck in on a three-player tie for second-team WR.

On defense, the coaches agreed with the media in putting Sash, Clayborn, and Angerer on the first team roster. They also added Amari Spievey; as coaches, they're more likely to know that the reason Spievey didn't have a ton of picks wasn't that he's not good at football, but that there's just no hope in throwing at him; Spievey was a machine this season, and we're starting to lose hope that he's got more than one game left in an Iowa uniform. A.J. Edds is the lone Hawkeye on the defensive second team.

For honorable mention, it's as follows:Christian Ballard, Kyle Calloway, Ryan Donahue, Brent Greenwood, Karl Klug, and Adam Robinson.

Full All-BXI teams and a few thoughts are after the break.

MEDIA

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	JOHN CLAY, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Tandon Doss, Indiana	Blair White, Michigan State
WR	Keith Smith, Purdue	Zeke Markshausen, Northwestern
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa
G	Justin Boren, Ohio State	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Dace Richardson, Iowa
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Kyle Calloway, Iowa
T	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin	Dennis Landolt, Penn State
TE	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin	Tony Moeaki, Iowa
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan State	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Jared Odrick, Penn State
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	GREG JONES, Michigan State	Josh Hull, Penn State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Brent Greenwood, Iowa
DB	Donovan Warren, Michigan	Amari Spievey, Iowa
DB	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern	Brad Phillips, Northwestern
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

COACHES

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
QB	Daryll Clark, Penn State	Mike Kafka, Northwestern
RB	Evan Royster, Penn State	Brandon Saine, Ohio State
RB	John Clay, Wisconsin	Ralph Bolden, Purdue
WR	Eric Decker, Minnesota	Tandon Doss, Indiana*
WR	Blair White, Michigan State	Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa* Keith Smith, Purdue*
C	Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State	Rafael Eubanks, Iowa* Joel Nitchman, Michigan State*
G	Dace Richardson, Iowa	Jon Asamoah, Illinois
G	John Moffitt, Wisconsin	Justin Boren, Ohio State
T	Bryan Bulaga, Iowa	Rodger Saffold, Indiana
T	Dennis Landolt, Penn State	Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
TE	Tony Moeaki, Iowa	Garrett Graham, Wisconsin
PK	Brett Swenson, Michigan	Stefan Demos, Northwestern

POS.	FIRST TEAM	SECOND TEAM
DL	Adrian Clayborn, Iowa	Jammie Kirlew, Indiana
DL	Brandon Graham, Michigan	Thaddeus Gibson, Ohio State
DL	Jared Odrick, Penn State	Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
DL	O'Brien Schofield, Wisconsin	Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
LB	Pat Angerer, Iowa Linebacker	A.J. Edds, Iowa
LB	Greg Jones, Michigan State	Ross Homan, Ohio State
LB	Navorro Bowman, Penn State	Sean Lee, Penn State
DB	Tyler Sash, Iowa	Donovan Warren, Michigan*
DB	Amari Spievey, Iowa	Sherrick McManis, Northwestern*
DB	Brad Phillips, Northwestern	Brandon King, Purdue*
DB	Kurt Coleman, Ohio State	David Pender, Purdue* Jay Valai, Wisconsin*
P	Zoltan Mesko, Michigan	Jeremy Boone, Penn State

Okay. While we're quite happy that Bulaga got such high accolades for the season, we can't be alone in thinking that he was hardly the best lineman in Iowa City, much less the Big Ten. He was either on the sidelines or out of sorts for the majority of the season, and we still haven't seen the elephant-tusk-covered road grader from last season on display. He totally would have deserved a preseason OL of the year, but his performance over 2009 didn't merit such superlatives.

This is hardly a new development from these postseason lists, however; generally, the lists are crafted off of the preseason lists, and anybody whose knee blew out with more than four games left was excised and replaced by someone else. After all, Bulaga was only a second-team All-BXI player last season, even though he was by far the best lineman on the team in 2008. Seth Olsen, meanwhile, had the good fortune to be a first-teamer to start the year, so he was on the first team after 2008, despite a relatively blah senior campaign; we'd have put him about fourth on the list of Iowa linemen for 2009, behind the two bookends at tackle and Rob Bruggeman at center.

Essentially, Bulaga won the award in 2009 for his play in 2008.

At the end of the day, this comes down to stats; there aren't any for linemen, despite the ill-fated attempt to get the "pancake" introduced about a decade ago (for this, we blame Orlando Pace). It's assumed that linemen are sure things, and that as long as they stay healthy, the narrative has stayed true. After all, without stats, most scribes have no time (or no idea) how to watch linemen individually.

Frankly, though it's a subjective stat, we'd love to see how linemen grade out per play (remember that Blake Larsen famously graded at 100% during his senior season at Atlantic; lord, had those knees survived...) Without having the means to undertake such an activity ourselves, we'd imagine that if you graded each Iowa offensive lineman, Kyle Calloway or Dace Richardson would probably be at the top.

If they're not, which is possible, then it would probably be the guy who didn't even get an honorable mention: Riley Reiff. He was stout in relief of Bulaga--hell, we're pretty sure O'Brien Schofield would not have batted Reiff around like a catnip mouse, unlike some Iowa linemen--and he basically forced his way into the starting lineup even before Big Dace went down. But since he wasn't even a projected starter, to say nothing of a preseason honoree, Reiff didn't have much of a chance for postseason mention. Shame, really; dude is legit, and he hasn't even filled out his frame yet.

As for the skill players, it's a little disappointing that Stanzi only made one honorable mention team. But we get how that can happen. Spievey only making second team in the media is flatly ridiculous. If he'd put together that same season in an Ohio State uniform, he'd be getting All-American talk.

Other than that, we don't have a ton of beef; Stanzi killed himself by leading the conference in interceptions when he went down to injury, and the rest of the offensive skill players were far too inconsistent or hurt to merit much consideration. Jeremiha Hunter not getting any honorable mention love is a little disconcerting, but the BXI was lo-ho-hoaded at linebacker this season; we're not quite sure whom we'd place him above. He'll get some love in 2010 if he stays healthy. Also--given the play of Jeff Tarpinian in relief--if Hunter stays healthy between now and next September, there's no position battle at weakside backer next season, right?

So, all in all, a fair list, even if the voting on offensive linemen is basically a year behind schedule. It's a year behind for everyone else, after all. Anybody else that you folks think got shafted? Did Marvin McNutt deserve a nod, or is he still a year away from recognition?

*/Farnsworth'd

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

---

Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

---

Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Illini final Depth Chart released, alot of or's and maybe's

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 15:12:32 -0000

You final actual factual honest to goodness depth chart has finally been released. Within it contain very few if any surprises.

On fact of note, the RB's are listed as or's for the starting spot, in alphabetical order. Oddly enough, alphabetical just happens to the order in which playing time will be split this season. It goes Dufrene OR Ford OR LeShoure OR Pollard as your starting RB. All of that being contingent upon the severity of DD's leg sprain.

Your offensive and Defensive lines shook out in a pretty advantageous manner. As in there are no Freshman starting on the O-line, thank God. On the O-line it goes Jeff Allen (So) Randall Hunt (Jr.) Eric Block (Sr) Jon Asamoah (Sr.) and Ryan Palmer (Jr.)

Your D-line looks like it could make a splash this year (crosses fingers) The "starting 4" are Pilcher, Sirod, Brent and Antonio James, but everyone knows that Corey Liuget is going to have a ton of snaps at DT as well as Clay Nurse at DE. I am also looking forward to see rFr Whitney Mercilus this year, not only did he supposedly have a great camp, but he challenges Iowa's Pat Angerer for best named defensive player in the league. Take not football fans if you want your son to be a great football player he needs a name like this to be truly great, as such I plan on naming my son Odin Skull-cracker.

Other than that nothing really of note on the chart, the DB situation is not so terrible that Hawthorne was list on the two deep of any position. And as expected there are about 200 receivers to choose from on this roster.

The Linking Illini is in pain, terrible terrible pain.

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 00:13:33 -0000

Its that time of year where most of the news is going to be bad. Bad as in injury news, this seasons injuries, last season's injuries even a crazy sinus infection is thrown in there. When you don't play games there isn't much good that can happen I suppose though.

Bob's Blitz: Miami Thomas hurt - IlliniHQ.com
Groan, Miami Thomas hurt again, severity not known. OG Jack Cornell injured, severity not known, OG John Asamoah sick with some sort of crazy Rantoul virus. Blah Blah unfortunate circumstances. Also of note, tonight is the Big Ten Networks feature on the Illini training camp, watch it tonight at 9 central
Hardeman relies on discipline in return from neck injury - Freeport, IL - The Journal-Standard
A good little write up on Donsay making his way back from last years neck injury. Remember when Beanie Wells jumped over Donsay for his Sportscenter highlight reel showboating? Well had Donsay delivered the type of hit he is known for, who knows how much worse his neck injury might have been. It really makes you think huh?
A LION EYE " Rantoul Scrimmage - The Good, The Bad, And The Promising
I feel the need to show a little love for another Illini blog A Lion Eye (get it) if there is one thing this guy is, it is knowledgeable, and perhaps a close second it is opinionated. Good stuff, this post featuring a first hand account of the Scrimmage on Saturday. Read it and enjoy.
ESPN Game Day coming to Champaign - IlliniHQ.com
Its a great OMG to all of the area's college basketball fans, myself included. Its not quite the same as having football gameday but color me stoked about this. Its all a lead up for one of the best games on the Big Ten calender, MSU at Illinois on February 6th. Hmm I am going to have to work on getting me some tickets for this....

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

BoilerTMill — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:07:30 -0000

I am waiting to do a formal wrap of Media Days for either late tonight or early tomorrow, but after seeing some of the other blog coverage I have decided I will be attending next year's event. It's only a short drive to Chicago. Of course, if I win tomorrow night's Powerball I can just hire a lackey to go for me. Wisconsin blogger Adam Hoge at Bucky's Fifth Quarter has a great 1st day wrap up team-by-team. In the mean time, on to the Illinois preview.

It is rare that we have played three non-conference opponents since we last played a conference opponent, but that is the case with each of our next two opponents. We haven't played Illinois or Wisconsin since 2006, but we played Toledo in 2007 and both Oregon and Notre Dame last season. In each case, we are facing a team that will be very unfamiliar to us. Illinois is probably a little more familiar than the Badgers because of quarterback Juice Williams. We did see him and a handful of other guys in 2006, whereas Many of Wisconsin's players were redshirting back then.

Williams is an interesting player. When he is on, the Illini can be one of the best teams in the country. When he is off, the other team often gets the ball in the form of ill-advised passes that turn into interceptions or fumbles. The Illini are quickly entering the realm of Notre Dame and Michigan. They are a team with a superior amount of talent compared to most teams, but that talent grossly underachieves. That sums up Juice Williams in a nutshell, and 2009 is his final chance to impress.

2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5 Big Ten)

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

Someone should let Juice know Anthony Spencer is there to sack and strip the ball from him. Nah, Anthony will do it himself. This is from the 2006 game and it is seconds before Alex Magee recovers a fumble for a huge game-changing TD.

Last Season for the Illini:

This is our least celebrated trophy rivalry. While we play Notre Dame and Indiana each year, Illinois regularly rotates off the schedule. They are technically the closest Big Ten team to West Lafayette, giving reason for the rivalry. Still, they are not a protected rival like Indiana, as Northwestern is our second protected rival. Purdue has a slight three game lead in the Cannon portion of the series thanks to our recent four game winning streak.

Last year was a raging disappointment after Illinois played in Pasadena. It was probably one of the least deserved BCS bowl bids ever, but Illinois did have an impressive 2007 season. It was the Illini's first bowl bid since 2001. Last year was a return to normal for Illinois. A 5-7 finish against a rough schedule has many once again questioning Ron Zook coaching ability.

Would Matt Painter do this?

Illinois really wasn't that far off last year. They played Missouri, Penn State, and Ohio State close in three very tough games. With a bowl bid on the line they folded on the road against Northwestern in the season finale, giving the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk to Northwestern for all time.

Illinois probably plays the manliest non-conference schedule outside of our own. They open in a neutral site game against Missouri again. They then have a home opener against Brock Spack's Illinois State team. Illinois had better hope they have a good Big Ten season, as they finish the year with two tough non-conference games at Big East Champ Cincinnati and at home against Fresno State. Our game comes after a trip to Indiana.

Illinois offense:

The 2008 version of the Illinois offense grossly missed Rashard Mendenhall. After running for a school record 1,681 yards in 2007, no one could match his total. Williams led the team with 719 yards and five touchdowns. Daniel Dufrene tried to replace Mendenhall's production, but added only 663 yards and no touchdowns. Jason Ford didn't have many yards, but he led the team with eight touchdowns as a true freshman. He could see more time in the backfield than Dufrene. Williams has long been a serious rushing threat with over 2,000 yards in his career.

The one knock on Williams has been his passing ability. Yardage-wise, he has always been fine. He will likely leave Illinois as it all-time passing yardage leader, but he has been erratic at best. 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns for 2008 are good. A 57% completion percentage and 16 interceptions are not. Williams has thrown 37 interceptions in 35 career games, so the likelihood of him suddenly cutting down on picks is low. He has actually thrown more interceptions in each successive season so far. The Illini are a better team by far when Williams does not have to throw much.

When he does throw, however, he has perhaps the best receiver in the conference throw to. Arrelious Benn has been almost everything Illinois fans have hoped for the past two seasons. He had 67 catches for 1,055 yards, but only three touchdowns last season. He has just five scores for his career despite impressive numbers elsewhere (sounds like Taylor Stubblefield pre-2004). He has to find the end zone much more often than he has already. Williams has spread his touchdowns around quite a bit. Seven different receivers had at least two scores last season, but no one had more than four. That means there is not one player we can totally focus on in red zone situations. That also makes Williams' rushing ability that much more dangerous.

Illinois must replace its center and left tackle from a line that gave up 25 sacks a year ago. Jon Asamoah at right guard and Jeff Allen at right tackle are both mainstays at 6'5" and 310+ pounds, but the rest of the line is in flux. Eric Block will move from left guard to center. Randall Hunt and Corey Lewis will both be on the left side and each has size at 6'6" and 320+ pounds. We should be able to generate a pass rush, but we have to finish off Williams once we get to him. Of course, to this point we will have faced Chandler Harnish, Jeremiah Masoli, Adam Weber, and Terrelle Pryor. What is one more mobile quarterback?

Illinois Defense:

In CFN's Illinois defensive preview, Pete Fiutak said that Illinois has a tremendous offense and Illinois defense needs to be merely average. I beg to differ. Illinois' offense committed 26 turnovers last year and generated a ton of yards, but not a ton of points. The defense was okay against the pass, but teams ran for more than 150 yards per game against the Illini. It will have to be much better than the merely adequate it was last year. It must also replace linebacker Brit Miller, who led the Illini in virtually every defensive category.

Illinois' defensive line generated 32 sacks, so it could get into the backfield. End Doug Pilcher is the most regular starter that returns, though Josh Brent and Sirod Williams are starters that battled injuries most of the year. Williams and Brent are tackles that should help in run situations. Brent is already on thin ice, however, after an offseason DUI cost him spring practice via suspension. Jerry Brown could also start at the other end position, but his academics are in question.

Martez Wilson is a highly touted recruit that is expected to do even better than Miller and American Hero J Leman at middle linebacker. Wilson played on the outside a year ago and amassed 73 tackles, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries. Illinois has a history of great middle linebackers, and Wilson is expected to be the next one. He'll be joined on the outside by Ian Thomas and Russell Ellington. Both are sophomores with not much experience. Nate Palmer and Justin Staples are both huge linebackers that redshirted last season and could be ready for serious playing time.

Best highlight from our last win over Illinois

The secondary lost a first round pick when the Dolphins drafted cornerback Vontae Davis. He led Illinois in interceptions with just two, but was in on 18 pass break ups. As a whole, Illinois picked off only six passes. Dere Hicks at cornerback and Donsay Hardeman at safety are the only two returning players that had an interception last year. Hardeman is a senior in his second season after being a very promising JUCO transfer last season. With 44 tackles and a pick he is expected to make an even bigger leap in year two. Garrett Edwards and Travon Bellamy should also see some time at safety, especially since Hardeman is recovering from a neck injury.

As a whole, this is a defense that is battling some serious injury and discipline issues. There is talent, but no less than four key players are uncertain because of injury, academics, or discipline. They aren't a group that will pick off a ton of passes and they could be susceptible against the run.

Illinois Special Teams:

Matt Eller is a decent sophomore kicker, hitting 15 of 20 field goals in his rookie year. He was not a weapon on kickoffs though. Illinois gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns and almost 25 yards per return. That means we should be able to get decent field position. The punting was almost equally awful. Opponents averaged 11 yards per return and Anthony Santella averaged less than 40 yards per kick.

In the return game we must keep our eyes on Benn. While he hasn't broken a return for a touchdown, he has the ability to do so. He'll handle both kick and punt return duties. We can't kick away from him on kickoffs, either. A.J. Jenkins averaged 22.3 yards per return with a touchdown last year as the second half of a dangerous return tandem.

Intangibles:

With this game being the seventh on the schedule for the Illini it presents an interesting situation. Illinois has an absolutely brutal slate before this game. The only sure wins are Illinois State and Indiana. There is a very strong chance they will be 2-4 with losses to Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State. That would make our game a must win possibly to save Ron Zook's job.

Personally, I view it a must win for us. If we're going to go bowling we have to get the four most winnable games we play at home against Toledo, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and Illinois. It is probably the biggest swing game we face all year. Win, and we may only need a late season win at Indiana to go to a bowl. Lose, and we'll need a home upset over Michigan State, a road upset at Wisconsin, or an unlikely win at Michigan.

Those two factors are huge. We could have a lot to play for given our coaching situation and expectations, while Illinois may have nothing to play for given theirs. I am still not sold on Zook's coaching talent. Illinois managed to parlay one big upset at Ohio State into a Rose Bowl berth. That is really all they have accomplished as a program since 2001. Even with a talent advantage over most teams they have a worse track record than Notre Dame in terms of developing that talent and getting the most out of it. Of all the programs in the Big Ten, Illinois seems to be the one that has the wildest fluctuations. In this decade alone they have either played in a BCS bowl or no bowl at all. 2009 looks to fit right in with that history. They have the talent to be in the BCS, but the result could be very different.

Game Outlook:

I am excited to see an erratic passer in Juice Williams face off against one of the best secondaries in the Big Ten. I am even more excited that new defensive coordinator Donn Landholm stresses creating turnovers against a team that is turnover prone. Williams has certainly improved since 2006, but that game was a nightmare for him. With an even worse defense than we have now, Williams turned the ball over four times... in five plays.

Offensively, we should have some room to run the ball. All we need to do is give Elliott time to throw and the Illinois secondary isn't known for its tight coverage. I really like or chances going into this game, and it needs to end as a win.

Prediction:

I am not sold on Illinois. Maybe Toki from Hail To The Orange will have some things to say that will convince me otherwise, but I think Illinois is going to have a rough year. It will also cost Ron Zook his job. I think Purdue holds its own at home and gets a step closer to bowl eligibility. Purdue 27, Illinois 21

Illini Unit Breakdown, the Offensive line.

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:00:21 -0000

Sure they don't score touchdowns, run routes or get any of the sexy stats like the skill players, with the exception of QB there may not be any more important facet to an offense than its line. Even the most explosive and stellar offense will grind to a halt if you cant pass block. Is it a coincidence that aside from having Heisman QB's OU and Florida also had two of the premier O-lines in the nation. Good lines make a QB, and they make a running back. Juice is at his finest when he has time to make a play, or at least block for him well enough for him to make a move with his feet. Given the sacks that would often kill our drives, (see: Western Michigan) the development of the O-line should be of particular importance to the success of the offense and thus the team. So, are we any better than last year?

Who will be starting? Well, the short answer to the question is, I would assume so. last year we started 2 true freshmen in Corey Lewis and Jeff Allen, this year they return as sophomores with alot of experience at left and right tackle respectively. Given the fact that both had less than one year in the offensive scheme and still essentially the same size as they were in HS, you would have to assume that they would only improve from last year.

Eric Block is moving to Center from guard to replace one of the best linemen from last year Ryan McDonald. I'm not entirely sure how the position change will effect him, but he is by far the most experienced lineman returning from last year. Also with a name like "Block" how can he not be a great O-lineman?

Jon Asamoah is large (315) experienced (started all 12 last year) and more than likely will not be the weak link of the line.

That leaves only one position undefined, Left Guard. If we are to listen to CFN we should expect Randall Hunt, a serviceable and experienced back up to take the lead. But Phil Steele begs to differ, projecting the stellar recruit Graham Pocic, who redshirted last year. I tend to listen to Phil Steele, because he knows more about the last place Sun Belt team than most of us know about our Alma Maters.

Possible Star. Its tough to become a "star" on the O-line, but if I had to make a guess, it would be Pocic, who will more than likely win the job at Rantoul and if he lives up to the hype he could be the anchor of the line for much more than just this year. If Jason Ford starts picking up 25 yard chunks next year running behind Pocic, don't be surprised.

What to expect. With an offense like this, the most important thing is pass blocking, it suffered last year from shortcomings in that area. If the team wants to be successful it cannot happen like that again. Juice is a play maker, with alot of weapons around him, he doesn't need a Florida or OU line in front of him to be successful. However he is going to be throwing the football more, possibly even more than last year, if the O-line has improved from last year the offense could put up even bigger numbers than last year.