SB Nation - Will Davis

Illini All Decade team: 1st team defense

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:38:24 -0000

Ah part 2 of the on going saga of the All Decade Team, the first team defense. There have been some mighty colorful personalities to play ball for the Illini over the years, particularly at linebacker, also we have an NFL punter (fun!)

By Paul M. Banks & Paul Schmidt of The Sports Bank and Joe Kutsunis of Hail to the Orange, "Home of the Blogging Illini"

First team Defense

DL Will Davis – 7^th all time in sacks for the Illini with 15, this son of the deputy minister of Liberia (its true) was one of the most potent pass rushers of the decade and recorded 5 tackles for a total 22 yards loss in the Illini’s 2007 win over Indiana. A 2^nd team All Big Ten player in 2007, and would led the team in sacks and TFLs that year as well. Taken in the 6^th round of the NFL draft by the Arizona Cardinals.

DL Derrick Strong – Led or co-led team in sacks and TFLs in 2002 and 2003, part of the 2001 Sugar Bowl team.

DL Derek Walker- 10^th all time in sacks in school history, and the other half of a very potent pass rushing attack on 2007, he led the team in sacks in 2006 and 2008. Though undrafted, he is currently signed with the Seattle Seahawks.

LB J Leman – What can be said about J Leman, other than to this day this fan favorite is one of the most recognizable Illini players around, even though he has never taken an NFL snap. Don’t let that fool you though; he has the stats to back up his fame. Two time First Team All Big Ten, 2007 First Team All American led the Big Ten in tackles in 2006. He is the #6 all time tackler at Illinois. He tackled ball carriers, broke up passes and fought for the American way, and is still the best sound bite around. Also, the man made the mullet cool again, no small feat if you ask me.

LB Brit Miller - The other vocal leader of the linebackers from 2005 to 2008, he moved to the middle in ’08 and ended up leading the Big Ten in tackles that year, (eat it, Laurinaitis.) and was First Team All Big Ten. And a find comedian; everyone enjoyed his "mustache day" bit from Camp Rantoul featured on Big Ten Network’s reality series "The Journey."

LB Jerry Schumacher- Led team in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks in 2001 and 2002, is #10 all time tackler at the U of I. Earned 2^nd team All Big Ten in 2001 and 2002. Also has a fantastic player picture.

LB Matt Sinclair – Twice led the team in tackles and sacks. Yeah, that’s all we got. But seriously, he was really good, even though no one remembers anything about him.

DB Vontae Davis - 2008 Playboy All American (it counts) and first round draft pick by the Dolphins, making the jump after playing only 3 years in Champaign. Was First Team All Big Ten in 2007 and a factor in the passing game of every team he played. His hitting was so hard that on several occasions he knocked out either the opposing player, or himself. And his tremendous closing speed was like the hotness of Pam on "The Office." Even though it’s not really talked about, it’s there, it’s always been there and it’s superlative.

DB Kevin Mitchell- As unsung a hero of the 2007 Rose Bowl team as there could be, he led the team in interceptions with 5 and led the conference in defended passes. His 4^th quarter interception of Anthony Morelli sealed victory over a ranked Penn State team, the team’s first since 2002. Not as hyped or well known as Vontae Davis, but just as important to the Illini’s success.

DB Eugene Wilson- led team in INTs in both 2000 and 2001, was 1^st team All Big Ten in ’01 and a Playboy All American in ’02. Current Illinois career leader in passes broken up with an astonishing 60.

DB Muhammad Abdullah- As a true freshman, took over the starting free safety job from Mike Gusich in ’98 and never looked back.

P Steve Weatherford – Weatherford is the best punter in school history, and perhaps surprisingly, one of the school’s best athletes as well. Not only does he boast the best career punting average in Illinois history and the top two season averages, he was a two-time Big Ten champion in the decathlon. Ron Turner thought that it was possible Weatherford was one of the fastest guys on the team. And again…we’re talking about the PUNTER!

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Game week 1: Mizzou Tigers

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:36:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Browse more photos »

Thank Tebow, its finally a week where we can talk about an actual game

So let us figure out the matchup against the Tigers of Missouri.

What happened last year: The Ilini and Mizzou had a barn burner that resulted in over 1,000 total yards of offense, including 5 TD's and 450 yards by Juice through the air. The defense was fairly easily picked apart early on and was run, mostly straight up the middle for 130 yards by Derrick Washington. Although at one point the Illini were up 13 to 7, on the play immediately following their go ahead score Jeremy Maclin returned a kick for a TD and Mizzou went on a scoring tear going up 31 to 13 at half. The Illini did come storming back in the second half, but Mizzou was able to keep pace well enough to finish on top 52 to 42.

Who's gone and who returns?: This story may very well have a happy ending after all. Chase Daniel, who threw for 3 TDs, gone. Jeremy Maclin who returned a kick for a TD (two years in a row) gone, Chase Coffman, who had 120 yards receiving, gone. Along with half of the starters on defense. Most important returning factor for the Illini is Derrick Washington who surprised the Illini and ran all over a defense that was expecting alot more throwing. This year the Illini lose very talented DE's Will Davis and Derek Walker, along with DT David Lindquist. While the Dline loses talent, it may be stronger on the inside. Instead of 3 DE's starting on the line this year, the Illini will be starting 2 players at DT who did not see the field against Mizzou last year, Josh Brent and Corey Liuget. On offense, well you know the usual suspects of the Illini, Juice, Benn, Cumberland, Uh-oh and on and on.

Projection after the jump.

So that leaves the Illini with perhaps a weaker defense against the pass but stronger against the run. Luckily for the Illini, they will be meeting a Mizzou team that loses most of its passing offensive firepower. It will be starting Soph Blaine Gabbert, who will be seeing his first time behind center in a real game. Mizzou will more than likely want to lean on Washington to get Gabbert comfortable, which is beneficial to an Illini team with strength up the middle.

On offense the Illini should capitalize on a defense that loses 7 starters from last year, especially on a secondary that returns only 1 true starter of 4. If the Illini can move the ball against the Tigers like they did last year, with out giving up the game changing special teams play as they have for the last two years they can and should win this game. This is of all of the Arch Rivalry games, the best opportunity for the Illini. Mizzou is very inexperienced and the Illini catch a QB in his first start ever. The Illini are very experienced, loaded on offense and should be able to control the game. If the Illini can't beat the Tigers this year, when they enjoy so many advantages, and while coming so close when they were over matched then I guess I don't know football.

Further speculation and second guessing to come as the weeks rolls on.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

---

Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Will Davis and His Future With the Arizona Cardinals

Hawkwind — Tue, 19 May 2009 19:55:26 -0000

The Arizona Cardinals, for the second year in a row, used their sixth round pick in the NFL draft to select a defensive end with the idea of moving him to outside linebacker. Last year they chose blue-collar, high motor Chris Harrington from Texas A&M, but after nearly the entire season on the practice squad he was snatched by the Cincinnati Bengals. This year the Cardinals decided to target a player with more athleticism and in the sixth round they selected Will Davis, from Illinois. Davis, a former receiver and tight end, had a great junior season (12.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks) but took a big step backwards as a senior recording just seven and 3.5, respectively. The question that he must answer as a professional is, who is the real Will Davis?

The Cardinals, as you might expect, are banking on Davis reclaiming the form that he showed in 2007 when he was second team All-Big Ten and named to a couple preseason watch lists (Rotary Lombardi Award and Ted Hendrick Defensive End of the Year Award). To get a better idea of Davis' collegiate career we contact Toki Wartooth, the head blogger at Hail to the Orange (SBNation's Illinois blog) and here's what he had to say...

Why did Davis' production fall off in 2008 and what are his strengths?

It is true that Will Davis was probably the best pure pass rusher on the team last year and the year before. Unfortunately the Illini had a glut of talented DE's but very few experienced DTs, so when Sirod Williams went down for the season before the first game, it meant that Davis would be largely the one to take his position. Against Mizzou, the Illini gave up a lot of yards right up the middle, exploiting his inexperience at DT and his lack of size.......In pure passing situations his quickness and instincts will result in him getting to the QB more often than not, but he's in trouble when teams run at him.

So if you were a defensive coordinator, how would you use Davis to maximize his potential?

My advice: put him on the outside, especially on third and long, and he will probably be productive. Put him inside and he probably won't. Basically what I am saying is, it is good that you guys picked him up for pass rushing, because the biggest hole in his game is probably stopping the run.

All in all, that's honestly about what you'd expect to hear about a guy who is being moved to outside linebacker. Most of them are smaller or weaker defensive ends who are a a liability against the run but excel at coming off the edge and rushing the passer. When you add in the note that he being used inside as a defensive tackle and it's no wonder that his production fell off in 2008 (there can't be too many defensive tackles who are former wide receivers).

So what, if anything, can we make of this? First, the Cardinals certainly won't be lining him up on the inside of the defensive line and he'll probably be asked to drop some weight in order to gain speed and flexibility. His lack a superb strength will not be such an issue at outside linebacker although he will need to get a bit stronger. The good news for Davis is that he won't be asked to contribute much, if at all, this season.

What to Expect in 2009: It wouldn't be surprising at all, given the current depth at OLB, for Davis to spend the season on the practice squad. He has zero experience in space his transition to OLB will be more difficult than second round pick Cody Brown. When you add in that he also needs to get stronger and possibly drop some weight, a year on the practice squad seems to make sense. If he does find his way onto the roster, it'll likely be because he's made a name for himself on special teams.

What to Expect in the Future: Davis is basically your traditional high risk/high reward type of prospect. He's certainly got the quickness and foot speed to turn the corner on an offensive tackle and if he can fully develop his game, he should be viewed as a starter in a couple of seasons. Of course his history of nagging injuries and his reliance on athleticism (instead of developing proper technique), could derail his career before it even gets started.

-----------------------------------------------------------

It'll likely take several years to determine what kind of professional player Davis can become but in 2009, I'd have to think his first goal should be to make the '53.' With depth ahead of him and a lot to learn, that task will be difficult enough. Thoughts? Anyone seen Davis play in college?

Arizona Cardinals Assign Numbers to Rookie Draft Class

Hawkwind — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:31:27 -0000

The Arizona Cardinals have assigned numbers to their entire rookie class (eight draft picks and 9 undrafted free agents). I'm not sure if this is common practice for the Cardinals but not a single rookie retained the same number that they wore in college, even if the number was avaliable.

Chris "Beanie" Wells #26 (Keith Lewis currently has #28)
Cody Brown #52 (Donovan Raiola currently has #50)
Rashad Johnson #41 (Alex Shor currently has #49)
Greg Toler #32 (He wore #8 in college but that number is avaliable)
Herman Johnson #67 (Jason Banks currently has #79)
Will Davis #59 (Anquan Boldin currently has #81 but an OLB can't wear a receiver number anyways)
LaRod Stephens-Howling #36 (Tim Hightower currently has #34)
Trevor Canfield #60 (Deuce Lutui currently has #76)

It'll be interesting to see if any of the guys switch their number once some guys are cut during training camp. I'd think that Chris Wells, Cody Brown and Rashad Johnson stand a better chance of making the roster than Keith Lewis (although his chances are fairly good), Donovan Raiola and Alex Shor. Toler couldn't wear his collieagate number because defensive backs aren't allowed to wear single digit numbers in the NFL.

Justin Brown #12 (He wore #81 at Hampton)
Chase Bullock #96 (He wore #42 at Maryland but that number is avaliable)
Tony Davis #37 (Larry Fitzgerald currently has #11)
Jameel Dowling #43 (Tyler Palko currently has #3)
Khalil El-Amin #64 (Jason Banks currently has #79)
Shane Morales #10 (Old Grey Beard currently has #13)
Brandon Pearce #65 (He wore #71 at Memphis but that number is avaliable)
Reggie Walker #55 (Clark Haggans currently has #53)
Michael Ray Garvin #18 (DRC currently has #29)

Arizona Cardinals Pre-Draft Needs Combined With Post Draft Thoughts

Hawkwind — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:16:58 -0000

More photos » by Terry Gilliam - AP

Former Ohio State running back Chris Wells shoulders a big load heading to the Arizona Cardinals and their struggling running game, but can he answer the call?. (AP Photo/Terry Gilliam)

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As the dust settles from the circus that is NFL Draft weekend, the Arizona Cardinals added a total of 17 players, eight draft picks and nine undrafted free agents, to their franchise. The diverse group of players ranges from simply massive (6'7, 364) in Herman Johnson to merely tiny (5'7, 180) in LaRod Stephens-Howling. The group was pretty balanced with eight offensive players and nine defensive players with the University of Cincinnati being the only school with multiple players who joined the Cardinals. The defensive secondary got major infusion of young talent with as many as five defensive backs joining the ranks and on the offensive side of the ball the focus was on building depth on the interior of the offensive line. With 17 new bodies you'd have to think that the Cardinals addressed each and every need right?

Earlier in the off season ROTB as a whole identified the biggest needs for the Cardinals heading into the draft. After 194 votes the top needs were clearly evident with running back dominating the poll with 38% of the vote. Outside linebacker was a distant second with 18% of the vote and cornerback (granted this was before Bryant McFadden was added) took home the bronze with 12%. Offensive line, defensive tackle, defensive end and safety rounded out the poll with inside linebacker bringing up the rear with two percent. The tight end position wasn't included in poll although some argued that it should have been added. The addition of Bryant McFadden and the uncertain future of Karlos Dansby most likely would have swayed some of the votes if the poll had been revived shortly before the draft but I think we've got a solid starting point in identifying the needs of the Red Birds heading into draft weekend so lets take a look at how they did....

#1 Need - Running Back: After months of speculation and countless mocks, I think the Cardinals got exactly what they wanted when Beanie Wells fell into their laps. Wells was arguably the top draft and undeniably a top 15 talent. He's a unique blend of size (6'1, 235) and speed (sub 4.5 forty) and the kind of franchise, workhorse back that Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm love to build an offense around. Whether or not he's the day one starter at running, he should lead the Cardinals in carries and yards by seasons end. With the franchise back in place, the Cardinals waited until the seventh round to find their second back. LaRod Stephens-Howling was an unknown to just about everyone outside of the Pittsburgh Panthers but he's got the potential to be solid kick returner and maybe even a dangerous third down, scat back.

Was the need satisfied? Absolutely. Wells is the future of not only the running back position but also the offense as a whole. LSH brings an element of speed to the offense that no other player possesses.

#2 Need - Outside Linebacker: To fill the second biggest need, the Cardinals used their second round pick to nab the best outside linebacker prospect on the board in Cody Brown. Brown was a collegiate defensive end but he's got the size and athleticism to excel as an outside linebacker. It may take a full season for Brown to fully grasp the position change but he should be able to contribute immediately on special teams and as a situational pass rusher. With Okeafor and Berry both likely on the way out after this season, Brown should become a starter in 2010. The Cardinals didn't stop there though because they nabbed another OLB prospect In the sixth round when they selected Will Davis. Davis is intriguing because he's actually a more natural pass rusher than Brown but his game is raw so the learning curve will be greater. It's possible that Davis will end up on the practice squad in 2009 but his ability to rush the passer is unique and with a full season refining his game and learning the position of OLB, he could be a force in a couple seasons.

Was the need satisfied? Yes. Brown will be able to contribute this season and should project as a starter in 2010 once Okeafor and Berry leave. Davis is a bit of a project but as far as sixth round picks go, he's got the talent to develop into a valuable player.

#3 Need - Secondary Depth: Ok so I took some liberties and lumped corner and safety together but with the addition of Bryant McFadden, I suspect that corner back wouldn't have received near as many votes. With the depth of entire secondary a bit suspect, the Cardinals added a total of five potential players to the mix, including a third and fourth round pick. Third round pick, Rashad Johnson figures to push Aaron Francisco, Keith Lewis and Matt Ware down the depth chart and upgrade the secondary position. He's an intelligent, hard working safety who excels at reading the action in front of him and keeping the play in front of him. He's not an exceptional athlete but neither is any of the trio that he's replacing. To bolster the depth at corner, the Cardinals made a surprising pick of Greg Toler in the fourth. Toler is a from a tiny school and took an unusual path to the NFL but his physical skills and ball hawking tendencies are undeniable. His overall game is raw but the depth ahead of him should allow him to grow at his own pace. The Cardinals added another two guys who have experience to play either safety or corner in the UDFA stages to provide competition in camp.

Was the need satisfied? Absolutely. I don't think anyone expected the Cardinals to add this much new blood to a secondary that already looked fairly solid. Johnson and Toler have the potential to develop into starters during their rookie contracts.

#5 Need - Offensive Line: For the past several months there has been countless discuss here and all over the net about the Cardinals offensive line. Who should be replaced, why couldn't they run the ball and countless others but in the end the coaching staff said multiple times that they were happy with the starting five and nothing that they did on draft day would suggest other wise. They did draft two offensive lineman in Herman Johnson (5th round) and Trevor Canfield (7th round) as well as adding another two prospects as undrafted players. Johnson and Canfield should improve the depth and provide competition on the interior of the line but neither should make serious push for starting time this season.

Was the need satisfied? That depends. The biggest need was depth at center and the Cardinals didn't pick up a center unless you count Canfield. He's practiced at the position but never taken a snap there in an actual game.

#4 Need - Defensive Line: Again I'm lumping two positions together with defensive end and tackle. The Cardinals didn't address either position in the draft or with a UDFA but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The starters across the defensive front are set and appear to be fairly solid with Darnell Dockett, Gabe Watson and Calais Campbell. The depth is what has some people worried but the coaching staff obviously feels comfortable with Bryan Robinson, Alan Branch, Kenny Iwebema and maybe even Keilen Dykes.

Was the need satisfied? No, but whether or not this was actually a need is a point of debate.

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Despite being the NFC Champions (it sounded nice to hear that during the draft didn't it?) the Arizona Cardinals had plenty of needs heading into the draft but did they fill every one?

Arizona Cardinals News: Checking Out the NFL Draft Grades

Hawkwind — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:48:45 -0000

More photos » by Kiichiro Sato - AP

7 months ago: FILE - In this Sept. 27, 2008 file photo, Ohio State tailback Chris "Beanie" Wells carries the ball during an NCAA college football game against Minnesota in Columbus, Ohio. Wells is a top prospect in the 2009 NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, File)

Browse more photos »

The biggest weekend in the NFL off season has come to an end but the draft certainly didn't disapoint. After two full days of live coverage and non-stop hoopla we've got just a short week before the first mandatory mini-camps get started (this weekend!!) and before you know it we'll be down in Gledale prepping for training camp. The Arizona Cardinals didn't get involved in any trades over the weekend, yes Boldin still wears red, and for the most part they just patiently waited their turn each round. Over the course of this week we'll take a much deeper look at each pick, look in on how our divisional mates faired this weekend and we'll look at some undrafted free agents who could interest the Red Birds, but for now here's how the 'experts' thought the Cardinals did this weekend:

Disclaimer: As I'm sure we're all aware, these draft grades are less than meaningless because no one truly knows how a group of players will project in the NFL and at the very least you'd have to give a draft class two or even three years to establish themselves before labeling them with a grade. With that being said, where's the fun in that.......

Yahoo (Charles Robinson):

Positive: Landing an explosive running back.
Negative: No defensive line help until sixth round.
Bottom line: B+. Getting Wells with the second-to-last pick in the first round was a coup. He adds exactly the kind of explosion the position needs. Brown should add some pass rushing help, but he'll need to get stronger to be a complete linebacker. Johnson is a good play maker who works hard all the time.

USA Today:

Grade B. Cardinals needed RB to complement Tim Hightower and found Chris Wells still on the board at 31. Durability issues may have dropped him but he's a tough inside runner and can only help the NFL's worst ground game. Rangy DE/LB Cody Brown fits in an area where incumbents Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor are getting up in years. Should give them some flexibility in their 3-4. Ballhawk DB Rashad Johnson will quickly find a role.

ESPN Mel Kiper:

Grade: B+

Chris Wells was a major acquisition for the Cardinals in the first round of this draft. He was a bargain for a team that was in dire need of a running back to rotate in with second-year back Tim Hightower. Wells gives this team the home run threat that the running game was sorely lacking last season. In addition to Wells, I liked the Cody Brown pick in the second round because he should be a good 3-4 rushing end in the Cardinals' system. Bringing in LSU offensive lineman Herman Johnson in the fifth round and Illinois defensive end Will Davis in the sixth were good pickups for this organization. While I thought Johnson was a bit overrated, he is huge and will give the line a big presence when he's on the field.

CBS (Pete Prisco):

This is an organization that has turned the corner when it comes to drafting. Grade: B

Best pick: Third-round pick Rashard Johnson is a rangy safety who has good instincts. He won't start, but should be a good special-teams player.
Questionable move: Not trading up to get Donald Brown. He fit their offense better than Beanie Wells.
Second-day gem: Greg Toler. Taken in the fourth round, this corner from St. Paul College has loads of physical skill.

Fox Sports:

After making it to their first Super Bowl, the Cardinals were in an unfamiliar position at the bottom of the first and second round. They came away with Ohio State running back Chris "Beanie" Wells and UConn linebacker Cody Brown. Wells, a powerful inside runner, has a chance to be the featured back next season because Tim Hightower is more of a third-down player.

The Cardinals rejected several low offers (no first-round picks) for unhappy receiver Anquan Boldin. Alabama safety Rashad Johnson plays a great center field and has a nose for the ball; he's a play maker. Corner back Gregory Toler flunked out of high school, but found a home at St. Pauls College, a small school in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. Toler is a boom-or-bust selection. LSU offensive lineman Herman Johnson once weighed in at 390 pounds and he probably will be used at guard. Grade: B

NBC Sports:

The Cards wanted a speed complement for Tim Hightower at No. 31 and did better than they ever could've imagined. Chris Wells, who cracked 4.4 at Pro Day, is Ken Whisenhunt's new Jerome Bettis. UConn DE Cody Brown was a reach at No. 63, but could push to start at outside linebacker when Chike Okeafor's contract expires in 2010.

Rashad Johnson, who learned under Nick Saban at Alabama, is a pro-ready free safety and LSU G/T Herman Johnson was a value pick in round five. Small-school CB Greg Toler is a project, though, and tiny RB LaRod Stephens-Howling is unlikely to have a career. Most importantly, Anquan Boldin is still a Cardinal. Grade: B

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There's the so-called experts opinions on the Cardinals 2009 draft, but what did you think? Did they address all of the needs or looking back at how the draft played out, who would you have taken? Who's got the best chance to open the season as a starter and who is your sleeper in this draft class?

Poll

How would you grade the Arizona Cardinals 2009 NFL Draft?

A+

33 votes

A

112 votes

B+

175 votes

B

64 votes

C+

11 votes

C

6 votes

D

2 votes

F

7 votes

410 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 NFL Draft: DE Prospects

ChiFan13 — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 18:00:15 -0000

Next in the multi-part draft breakdown are the defensive ends. I watch a ton of college football, but I'm not Mel Kiper Jr., so all of these are up for discussion.

Unlike the DT's, this class is an elite talent group. Not only that, but some of the elite prospects can either be a dominant pass rusher in a 4-3 or an aggressive OLB in a 3-4. However, outside of Orakpo and Maybin, the rest of the prospects are either specifically pass rushers or run stoppers. NFL coaching should be able to alleviate those problems.

Again, do the Bears need a DE? No. We have other major holes to fill. Would it be nice to get one of these guys? Yes, maybe another year.

(Disclaimer: Some of you will call me a homer for selecting Orakpo as the #1 DE, but I explain why below. The first three I listed can be listed in any order. Also, I have Larry English projecting more as an OLB than DE. GeauxBears will detail the OLB's on Wednesday)

Brian Orakpo, Senior, Texas
Height: 6'3" Weight: 263 lbs.

Combine: 4.74 (40); 31 reps (bench); 39 ½" (vertical)

Pros: Freak of an athlete....possesses excellent speed, agility, and lateral quickness....very explosive....incredibly strong....gets his hands up if he can't get the QB; bats down a lot of balls....solid against the run and excellent against pass....awareness and instincts are top-notch....plays with intensity and his motor never quits....versatile (played DE and OLB during Texas' 2008 campaign).

Cons: Has some minor durability concerns (sprained knee in 2007)....he can be pushed around at the LOS due to hand placement, which coaching should alleviate....sometimes plays too narrow....snap anticipation is hit or miss.

Bottom line: I've been able to watch Orakpo in his four years with the Longhorns. He's a freak of nature and has been reported to bench 515, clean 380, and squat 600 lbs. Does he need some minor coaching to be an elite NFL end? Yes. Every single prospect on this list needs coaching of some kind. Orakpo can easily play DE in a 4-3 or Sam backer in a 3-4, which only adds to his draft value.

Projected round: Top-10 selection

Aaron Maybin, Sophomore, Penn State

Height: 6’3” ¾ Weight: 249 lbs.

Combine: 4.75 (40); 22 reps (bench); 38” (vertical); 10-4” (broad); 4.38 (shuttle)

Pros: Like Orakpo, possesses excellent top-end speed and lateral quickness….team leader with no character issues….no durability questions….very aggressive; non-stop motor….great snap anticipation….very fluid athlete….extremely tough.

Cons: Must add some bulk to his body….can be eliminated as a threat against the run when OT’s aggressively pursue him….too many times will spin away from double teams; must develop an inside move.

Bottom line: Maybin is an excellent prospect. The main concerns for him are bulking up and developing more pass-rush moves. He’ll be able to start and be an effective DE during the 2009 campaign. With good coaching, the sky’s the limit.

Projected round: Mid 1st round

Everette Brown, Junior, Florida State

Height: 6’1” ½ Weight: 256 lbs.

Combine: 4.73 (40); 26 reps (bench); 9-6” (broad)

Pros: No durability or character concerns….hard worker….excellent snap anticipation….first step is powerful and quick; can change directions quickly….strong awareness and instincts….excellent pass rusher.

Cons: Doesn’t use proper leverage….use of his hands is subpar….leaves himself open to cut blocks….isn’t a primary run blocker….must develop other pass rushing moves….doesn’t shed blocks easily….not as fluid as Orakpo or Maybin.

Bottom line: Again, with proper coaching, Brown will be an excellent prospect. He’s a pass rusher first and foremost, but if he learns how to use his hands more effectively, he will improve against the run.

Projected round: Mid 1st

Tyson Jackson, Senior, LSU

Height: 6’4” 1/8 Weight: 296 lbs.

Combine: 4.94 (40)

Pros: Great height and weight….no durability questions….if he can’t reach the QB, he’ll disrupt the throwing lanes; bats a lot of balls down….plays aggressively and with a mean streak….strong upper body allows him to get OT’s off balance….elite run stopper….no character issues.

Cons: Has an inconsistent motor….does not change directions as easily as Orakpo or Maybin….power allowed him to win battles in college….will not be a speed rusher at the NFL level.

Bottom line: If anyone’s looking for an excellent run blocker, Jackson is your guy. He won’t be able to consistently or effectively put pressure on the QB, but he does a lot of little things right.

Projected round: Mid 1st – mid 2nd

Robert Ayers, Senior, Tennessee

Height: 6’3” 1/8 Weight: 272 lbs.

Combine: 4.78 (40); 18 reps (bench)

Pros: Good speed….another DE/OLB hybrid….excellent initial burst….uses his hands well….sheds blocks with ease….disrupts passing lanes when he can’t get to the QB.

Cons: Doesn’t use proper leverage and plays narrow too often….motor is inconsistent….was arrested on a misdemeanor assault charge….durability questions….must develop more pass rush moves….only one year of starting experience.

Bottom line: Ayers, by most accounts, seems to have gotten over the early transgressions of his undergrad years. Personally, I think he’s a good prospect who still has yet to reach his potential. He’ll be off the board in the 2nd.

Projected round: Mid to late 2nd

Michael Johnson, Senior, Georgia Tech

Height: 6’6” 7/8 Weight: 266 lbs.

Combine: 4.66 (40); 28 reps (bench); 38 ½” (vertical); 10-8 (broad); 4.37 (shuttle)

Pros: Large frame with long arms….great athleticism, lateral movements, and speed….range is excellent….an excellent pass rusher.

Cons: Durability and commitment issues….needs to bulk up big time….motor is incredibly inconsistent….has a tendency to run himself out of plays….consistently gets dominated against the run.

Bottom line: Johnson is the Josh Freeman of DE’s: He will flash brilliance every now and again, but he is wildly inconsistent. If he pans out in the NFL, he’ll be absolutely dominant. He’s a boom or buster, thus why he’s been sliding down draft boards. Plus, he’s not effective against the run at all, making him a one-trick pony. He won’t take long to get picked up, but buyers beware.

Projected round: Late 1st – mid 2nd

ChiFan's Sleeper:

Will Davis, Senior, Illinois (DE/OLB)

6'3" 268 lbs.

Davis will most likely be a 4th or 5th round selection and is a boom-or-buster. A three-year starter for the Illini, Davis is best as a pass rusher. He's a liability against the run, but who knows what good coaching could do for him?

GeauxBears' Sleeper:

Cody Brown, Senior, Connecticut

6'2" 245 lbs.

Cody was a DE in college, but will probably play OLB in the big league. Pros: excellent pass rusher... very athletic... can drop back in pass coverage extremely well. Cons: Not a lot of bulk... not good at taking on pulling guards on outside running plays. He'll probably play in a 3-4 scheme and go in the 3rd or 4th round.

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:00:07 -0000

Can you feel it? That's right...BTBS is back in your life...

Missouri		Illinois
	% Close* = 71.07%
	TOTAL
82	Plays	77
34.91	EqPts	34.13
45.1%	Success Rate	40.3%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.44
0.877	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.846

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
73	Plays	40
30.55	EqPts	10.55
45.2%	Success Rate	32.5%
0.42	PPP	0.26
0.871	S&P	0.589

	RUSHING
16.11	EqPts	5.40
47.2%	Success Rate	36.7%
0.45	PPP	0.18
0.920	S&P	0.547

	PASSING
18.80	EqPts	28.73
43.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.41	PPP	0.61
0.843	S&P	1.037

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.4%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.48	PPP	0.47
0.926	S&P	0.919

	PASSING DOWNS
46.4%	Success Rate	30.4%
0.32	PPP	0.37
0.783	S&P	0.674

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
5.45	Points Lost **	4.85
7.85	Points Given ***	8.27
13.29	Total T/O Pts	13.12
-0.17	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.17

* % close = the % of plays in the game that took place when the score was within two possessions. It gives you a different way of looking how tight the game really was. If a team scores two late TDs against scrubs and only loses by 14, the game may look like it was competitive, but "% of plays' will show that it probably wasn't. On the other hand, if a game is within 3 points with two minutes to go, and the leader scores two late TDs, the score won't indicate how tight the game really was.

** Points Lost = the combined points lost via turnover, as determined by the point value of the team's starting field position. Example: Sean Weatherspoon's first INT took place with Illinois at Mizzou's 29. The Mizzou 29 was worth 3.41 EqPts, meaning Illinois "lost" 3.41 points on the play.

*** Points Given = the combined points handed to the other team via turnover, as determined by the point value of the resulting field position. Example: Back to Weatherspoon's first INT--it resulted in Mizzou starting at their own 26, which is worth 1.27 EqPts. So Illinois "gave" Mizzou 1.27 points on the play. And obviously both Pick Sixes were worth 7 "points given".

Analysis after the jump.

Special Teams won the game for Mizzou

So it's pretty clear that the difference here was in special teams. Jeremy Maclin had the kick return TD and set up Tommy Saunders' 2nd TD with a long punt return, plus Jeff Wolfert banged a long FG. That alone accounts for the difference on the scoreboard.

That, and...

Mizzou's defense was stellar while the game was close

While the overall EqPts score was almost dead even (34.91 to 34.13 for Mizzou), close game stats told the tale. Mizzou's S&P was pretty much exactly the same whether the game was close or not (0.877 overall, 0.871 close), but Illinois did almost all of their damage when Mizzou had a lead of 17 or more. They only managed a 32.5% success rate and 0.589 S&P when the game was actually in the balance, and just like last year, when they game tightened up, the Mizzou defense (especially Sean Weatherspoon and Stryker Sulak) ratcheted up the intensity and quality of play.

So despite the evenness on the EqPts scorecard, Mizzou's close-game play (and the fact that almost 30% of the game was played with Mizzou having a lead of 17 points or more) shows who deserved to win this game.

Projections vs Performance

Mizzou Rushing

Projected: 12.00
Actual: 16.11 (+4.11)

Mizzou Passing

Projected: 18.00
Actual: 18.80 (+0.80)

Illinois Rushing

Projected: 11.00
Actual: 5.40 (-5.60)

Illinois Passing

Projected: 9.00
Actual: 28.73 (+19.73)

Mizzou had one weakness on defense: stopping the long-ball to the right side. It's a throw Juice Williams makes as good or better than anybody in the country (he just can't throw a slant), and power to UI for finding the hole and exploiting it.

Revisiting the Key Players for Illinois

RB Daniel Dufrene

Daniel Dufrene: 13 carries, 3.15 EqPts, 30.8% success rate, 0.24 PPP, 0.550 S&P. Granted, he made himself useful with another 1.19 EqPts receiving, but Illinois was completely unable to establish the ground game, so...FAIL.

RG Jon Asamoah

Ziggy Hood: 2.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 50.0% success rate.

Ziggy was in the backfield quite a bit, but Juice was able to avoid him. His stats weren't great, but Mizzou's DTs were able to blow up the middle of line repeatedly, especially on runs. So I'm going to say slight fail for Asamoah.

DE's Will Davis, Doug Pilcher, Derek Walker and Jerry Brown

Will Davis: 3.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 58.3% success rate
Doug Pilcher: 3.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 75.0% success rate
Derek Walker: 1.5 successful tackles, 100.0% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)
Jerry Brown: 1.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 100.0% success rate

COMBINED: 9.5 successful tackles (2.0 TFL), 73.1% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)

The Pick Six from Walker was nice, obviously--he read the play perfectly and got to the endzone untouched. But the 2.0 TFL and 0.0 sacks were far less than what was expected from this unit. The only sack all night was a coverage sack, and really they didn't even hurry Chase Daniel all that much. If not for Walker's TD, this would have clearly been the biggest FAIL of the night. Big, big ups to the Mizzou O-line, particularly tackles Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown, for their bigtime play.

WR Arrelious Benn

Benn: 7 catches, 4.34 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 0.62 PPP, 1.334 S&P. Decent, but rather unimpressive considering he had only a 0.960 S&P while the game was close. His end-of-game totals ended up solid, but he was anything but a game-changer, and he did nothing in the return game as well. Fail.

Revisiting the Key Players for Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Washington: 19 carries, 11.26 EqPts, 47.4% success rate, 0.59 PPP,1.067 S&P. He more than doubled Illinois' EqPts output by himself. SUCCESS.

WRs Jared Perry, Tommy Saunders, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp

Jared Perry: 5 catches, 3.83 EqPts
Tommy Saunders: 6 catches, 6.50 EqPts (and a fumble)

The freshmen did nothing (though Andrew Jones did have a catch), and Maclin (4 catches, 1.25 EqPts) was blanketed all night, but the two unheralded veterans came through. Granted, Saunders' fumble cost Mizzou a few points, but he balanced those out with the Q3 TDs. Success.

OLs Elvis Fisher, Ryan Madison, Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, Colin Brown

They gave up 1 sack, and Derrick Washington dominated. Success.

S Justin Garrett

Justin Garrett: 2.5 successful tackles, 45.5% success rate. Solid for a safety. But he also had at least one horrific bite on a pump fake. And Juice Williams nearly doubled his career best for passing yards in a game. Nobody gets a Success for that. Fail.

Bottom Line

Bottom line: BTBS projected a 10-point win, and we won by 10. So there should be little to complain about. But here's the thing: if you'd told me that a) Mizzou's O-line would dominate Illinois' D-line, b) Mizzou's D-line would dominate Illinois' O-line, c) Sean Weatherspoon would have 2 INTs, d) Stryker Sulak would have 3 sacks, e) Illinois' rushing offense would post a putrid S&P, f) Mizzou would dominate in special teams (and Jake Harry wouldn't suck), and g) Derrick Washington would go off, I'd have thought we'd have won by 30.

Again, Mizzou showed only one weakness*: the secondary opposite Carl Gettis. And I think the personnel is in place (and so is the schedule) to fix that weakness.

If you wanted to add a second weakness to the list, I guess the blitzes really were pretty ineffective (though that's counteracted by the two starting DEs putting up 4 sacks on their own).

So in all, this is still a pretty satisfying win. Mizzou dominated the last three quarters when the game was actually within reach for both teams. And man oh man did the offense look good, especially in Q2 and Q3. Illinois is the 2nd- or 3rd-most athletic/talented team on the schedule, and the Close-Game S&P margin was 0.871 to 0.589 for Mizzou. That's a really, really good sign for the rest of the year.

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Conventional Wisdom

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Summary

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DE Jerry Brown

FS Donsay Hardeman

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