SB Nation - Anthony Santella

Alright guys, don't blow it now

BoilerTMill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:47:26 -0000

I am trying to keep the good vibes going. If anyone listened to the Boiled Sports podcast Tuesday night I made a pretty bold statement. I said that as good as the Ohio State win was, losing to Illinois would be 10 times worse. As a result, I am watching the video of the Ohio State win as I write this, hoping it carries over into the blog.

It is true though. If we can beat Ohio State, there is absolutely no reason we should lose to Illinois. You do not often get a chance to play the best team in the conference, then the worst team in the conference the very next week. I would even take it a step further. With Ohio State, we may have played the best team on our schedule last week (though Oregon may be better since they have a real offense). I think Illinois is the worst team on our schedule. They proved last week they are worse than Indiana. I think they are worse than Toledo (who beat NIU last week) and Northern Illinois. This is a team that has quit on its season already. They need to win their remaining games (one of which is against one of the nation's last unbeaten teams) just to qualify for a bowl. Unless we see some unexpected fight from the Illini Saturday, they are done.

2008 Record: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

2009 Record: 1-5, 0-4

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6 (Purdue leads The Cannon portion 29-26-2)

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

This may be one of the least celebrated trophy games in the Big Ten, but it is one of the closest overall. We have had the Cannon in our possession since 2003, but the recent two-year hiatus in the series means that we only have four straight wins. Speaking as a Purdue fan, the Illinois game really doesn't feel like much of a rivalry. There has never been a ton at stake, as both teams haven't exactly torn up the Big Ten at the same time for quite awhile.

Illinois offense:

This is the main reason that any loss to the Illini would be awful. Their offense, especially if you take away the 45-17 win over Illinois State (a 1-AA team), has been abysmal. That one win represents 45 of the 99 points the team has scored through six games. Not only has Illinois managed just one first half touchdown against a 1-A foe, they have only led one game against a 1-A opponent for about five minutes. That occurred last week at Indiana when the Illini led the Hoosiers 7-3 with 5:27 left in the first half. Illinois gave up 10 points in the final minute of the half, and never threatened again.

I don't even know who we will face at quarterback. Juice Williams (80 of 143, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) is the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has already been benched in favored of Eddie McGee (21 of 41, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). There is even talk of third string quarterback Jacob Charest, a redshirt freshman, getting some time Saturday. Charest has yet to take a snap in his collegiate career, so if he plays it will officially label Illinois as desperate. Illinois has only passed for 1,128 yards between Williams and McGee.

For a true preview of Saturday, just reverse the 9 and 4 on the jersey. The result of this play (a sack, strip, and fumble recovery for a TD) will likely be the same.

Whoever plays, they will likely become well acquainted with Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Neal, and the rest of our defensive line by the end of the day. The Illinois offensive line is among the worst in the Big Ten, giving up a league high 19 sacks. If our defensive line is not dominating and causing pressure all day something is severely wrong. This is especially true since these guys just played like warriors against Ohio State.

Illinois is not moving the ball well on the ground, either. Williams is the leading rusher with only 239 yards and one touchdown. Jason Ford (222-1), Daniel Dufrene (199-1), and Mikel Leshoure (163-2) form a running back by committee approach that is far from effective. McGee also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, so he is a threat to run if he plays. One has to remember though that the bulk of these numbers, running and passing, have been put up either against Illinois State or after the game is well decided. Illinois has not been in a game against a 1-A foe except last week against Indiana.

If they can get him the ball, there is a bit of a danger at wide receiver. Arrelious Benn was a preseason All-American, but he has only 22 catches for 271 yards and no touchdowns to lead Illinois receivers. As long as we cover him we will shut down Illinois' pathetic passing game. Jarred Fayson (11-119-1), Chris Duvalt (9-136-1), Leshoure (8-115-1), and A.J.Jenkins (7-100-1) have put up modest second half numbers, but again, this offense has literally done nothing in the first half of most games. They need to get the ball to Benn more, who is a playmaker, but they have been unable to.

Illinois defense:

This is a battered unit. They have already lost possibly their best player in Martez Wilson for the season. They may have lost their second best player, Donsay Hardeman, for his career last week. They are not getting to the quarterback with just six team sacks on the year. The offense is doing nothing to help them out, so the defense is getting worn down to the point where it is about as reliable as the Rhythm Method in preventing conception. They have also only forced seven turnovers (three interceptions, four fumbles), and three of those came against Illinois State. I kind of feel bad for them because they are undoubtedly playing hard, but they are getting zero help from their teammates.

Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece. Thomas has one of the team's sacks, while Wilson has one of the three interceptions. Doug Pilcher is a bit of a force on the defensive line as well. Pilcher has two sacks, 18 tackles, and an interception with a 41 yard return. Russell Ellington could also be a factor, as he has an interception with a 78 yard return. This is still not a fearsome unit.

Illinois is giving up over 28 points per game and their run defense is particularly bad. They are giving up about 180 yards on the ground, which is good for Ralph Bolden. Bolden has not had much room to run recently, and against Northwestern when he did have room we just kept fumbling the ball away. Look for Bolden to get over 100 yards for the first time since the Oregon game. McBurse and Taylor should also see some holes when they are in there. The pass defense is not much better, as it gives up 241 yards per game.

Honestly, we should only have trouble against their defense if we start giving the ball away again. Turnovers were still an issue last week against Ohio State, but we gave up no points off of them. Illinois does not force nearly as many turnovers as Ohio State does, so it once again comes down to us not shooting ourselves in the foot.

Illinois Special Teams:

And you thought their other units were bad. They have no punt return game (a long of nine yards), no kick return game (Benn is a dangerous returner, but only has a long of 33), and Matt Eller has hit on just half his field goals. Granted, the offense is not getting Eller in position to kick, as he is just 3 of 6 on the year with a long of 38.

One phrase we should get used to hearing is, "Anthony Santella is in punt formation". He averages almost six punts per game and has almost a 41 yard per kick average. Both coverage units on special teams for Illinois are merely average.

Intangibles:

This is a team that is already beaten. I watched part of Saturday night's game at Indiana and they had no hustle or emotion whatsoever. Beating them would officially end their bowl hopes, as there is no way they will win their five games after this and qualify at 6-6. This is Illinois' last shot to save its season, but given their body language and effort so far it would be a total shock to see them suddenly turn things on. Though Purdue and Illinois have similar record, Purdue has fought hard and has been in every single game. Illinois hasn't even been close, and they have rolled over and died since the opener against Missouri.

The one Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, has already virtually given up and jumped to basketball content. Their last two game wraps of Rock Bottom and Failing on all Cylinders show that confidence in the football program is at an all time low. There is no doubt that Illinois has more talent than a lot of teams, but that talent is severely underperforming in all phases of the game at the moment. They are even one of the most penalized teams in the league. I am not even going to mention the gigantic Ron Zook intangible right now. Every writer in the Big Ten is saying enough about his epic level of fail at the moment.

Contractually obligated Ron Zook blog picture. He will likely soon have plenty of time for his hobbies, such as fighting Boilerdowd to the death.

Purdue, meanwhile, is as high as it has been in about five years. Even the 8-6 season of 2006 and 8-5 season of 2007 did not have a moment that was a tenth as important as last week against Ohio State. As long as we don't go out and pull a Northern Illinois we will be fine.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Hogtie the team that showed up against Northern Illinois
Don't turn the ball over
Maintain last week's momentum
Run the ball with Bolden, McBurse, and Taylor
Dominate along the defensive line

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. The Illinois Fighting Illini

Pete Rossman — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:00:35 -0000

TV: BIG TEN NETWORK, 12 PM ET, 11 AM CT

WEATHER REPORT (as of Thursday Afternoon): Partly Cloudy, 52 degrees, 10% chance of rain

Michigan State hasn't played the Fighting Illini since Homecoming of 2006, and if you remember that game, I feel sorry for you, myself, and anyone in the rooms around either of us. The white dwarf star that is was Juice Williams burst onto the scene, beating the Spartans 23-20 for Illinois' only win against a 1-A team that season. That was how bad the John L. Smith era was, lest you forget.

Today, it seems only fitting that Juice gets benched before this game, giving way to redshirt junior Eddie McGee. Will McGee's addition spark the Illini? Can MSU establish a decent running game this week? Will I be stunned like I was three years ago? The answers to these questions can be found after the jump.

ILLINOIS ON OFFENSE

Let's get to the main question on most Spartan fans' minds: How good is Eddie McGee? Let's take a look at his stats this season:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	LNG	TD	INT	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
9/5	Missouri	L 37-9	4	9	36	44.4	19	0	0	78.04	2	11	5.5	6	0
9/12	Illinois State	W 45-17	13	17	164	76.5	27	1	1	165.15	18	55	3.1	16	2
9/26	@Ohio State	L 30-0	2	4	11	50.0	7	0	1	23.10	3	-3	-1.0	4	0
10/3	Penn State	L 35-17	DNP

And for Eddie's career:

YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2007	29	55	444	52.7	8.07	56	2	3	2	121.63
2008	4	9	59	44.4	6.56	30	0	0	0	99.51
2009	19	30	211	63.3	7.03	27	1	2	3	120.08

I think it's safe to say Eddie's not a significant upgrade in any way from Juice Williams. In fact, Eddie has a worse attempt-to-interception ratio than Juice (15 attempts to 1 INT for Eddie, 22.3 attempts to 1 INT for Juice). I interpret the quarterback switcheroo as a massive sign that Ron Zook has ascended from a mere councilman to mayor of [REDACTED], and the move won't make the Illini offense significantly better. Michigan State won't have to worry about the passing game as long as Arrelious Benn stays ignored (only 10 receptions in four games this season). As for quarterback scrambles and draws, the Spartans have shut down quarterback runs--both scripted and unscripted--for the most part this season.

The running attack is slightly better than the passing game. The Illini have averaged 3.1 yards a carry in their two Big Ten games this season (disclaimer - those games were against OSU and PSU). Jason Ford, their rushing leader, racked up 137 of his 173 yards in the Eastern Illinois game. Their second leading rusher will be on the bench, for he is Juice Williams. The one running back to be concerned about is Daniel Dufrene, who will either get busy livin' or get busy dyin' against Trevor Anderson and company (yup, Shawshank'd. Bonus trivia question - name the book the story was first in). Dufrene had 11 rushes for 54 yards against a good Penn State defense.

As for Michigan State, they should do exactly what they did during the first 55 minutes of the Michigan game. The Illini probably have the worst offense MSU has faced since Montana State, but with that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Illini have a couple long offensive drives, since Ohio State and Penn State have significantly better defenses than the Spartans.

ILLINOIS ON DEFENSE

Simply put, Illinois' weakness is team offenses with one vowel in their division classification. Missouri, OSU, and PSU all scored at least 30 points, while Eastern Illinois put up 17. If you're looking for a possible comparison point to how good the Illini defense might be, here's a hint: Akron, Temple, and Syracuse all allowed less points to Penn State than Illinois did. Even though Penn State did rein in the offense late in those early games...still.

Here's how the Illini have done defensively:

Team	Pass Yards	Run Yards	Total Yards	Yards Per Play
Missouri	325	117	442	6.14
Illinois State	354	44	398	5.53
Ohio State	82	236	318	5.39
Penn State	175	338	513	7.89

Missouri was unstoppable through the air, and Eastern Illinois passed because it was their only way to be effective. As for Ohio State and Penn State, the passing defense wasn't all that bad, as Penn State threw it 25 times in that game for an average of 7.0 yards per attempt. However, Penn State didn't need to pass when the running game picked up steam. Regarding Ohio State, Jim Tressel only calls passes under gunpoint.

The strategy for Michigan State is this: Use the pass to set up the run. Cousins has had little trouble with accuracy for passes under ten yards, and once the offense consistently gets at least five yards on first down (KJ's performed the math - throwing on first down is when the MSU offense is most effective), the run game should open up. I know this thought is an antithesis to one of the offense's central tenets, but Dantonio has shown he's not averse to a pass-heavy offense when Michigan State is behind.

ILLINIOIS ON SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicker for Illinois this season, Matt Eller, has been adequate, making 8 of 9 extra points and 3 of 4 field goals. However, that miss was on Eller's only attempt longer than 40 yards. Anthony Santella, the punter, hasn't shown a lot of power on his punts this season; he's averaging 38.5 yards per punt and has a long of 47 yards. The biggest threat on special teams is Arrelious Benn, who handles kick returns in addition to his receiving duties. He hasn't had a touchdown yet though, and Illinois has averaged less than 25 yards on its kick returns this season.

THE PREDICTION

I'm a little worried about this game. Illinois has played some tough opponents so far this season including two of the top three teams in the Big Ten. I'm pretty sure Illinois is better than what they've shown in their games against 1-A competition. However, Coach Zook's curious decision to bench Juice Williams leads me to one of two possible conclusions: Juice is more injured than anyone is letting on, or Zook is pressing the panic button WITH AN INTENSITY NOT SEEN BY MANKIND.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off a win where the defense showed signs of life for the first time since the opener. I hope Cousins' ankle is 100%, because that 41-yard run in the Michigan game demonstrated why Cousins has the edge over Nichol - Cousins doesn't have more athletic ability, but he knows when to run and when to pass and has the ability to make the right read better than Nichol does currently. Hopefully the offensive line can help the running backs consistently get at least three yards per rush.

I feel like this is a game Michigan State should win, and very well needs to win to keep their bowl hopes alive. The Illini will look good at times, and this game is going to be closer than a lot of us would like. The Spartans will prevail though on...let's say a Cousins pass to B.J. Cunningham and a field goal.

MICHIGAN STATE 24, ILLINOIS 14

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

BoilerTMill — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:07:30 -0000

I am waiting to do a formal wrap of Media Days for either late tonight or early tomorrow, but after seeing some of the other blog coverage I have decided I will be attending next year's event. It's only a short drive to Chicago. Of course, if I win tomorrow night's Powerball I can just hire a lackey to go for me. Wisconsin blogger Adam Hoge at Bucky's Fifth Quarter has a great 1st day wrap up team-by-team. In the mean time, on to the Illinois preview.

It is rare that we have played three non-conference opponents since we last played a conference opponent, but that is the case with each of our next two opponents. We haven't played Illinois or Wisconsin since 2006, but we played Toledo in 2007 and both Oregon and Notre Dame last season. In each case, we are facing a team that will be very unfamiliar to us. Illinois is probably a little more familiar than the Badgers because of quarterback Juice Williams. We did see him and a handful of other guys in 2006, whereas Many of Wisconsin's players were redshirting back then.

Williams is an interesting player. When he is on, the Illini can be one of the best teams in the country. When he is off, the other team often gets the ball in the form of ill-advised passes that turn into interceptions or fumbles. The Illini are quickly entering the realm of Notre Dame and Michigan. They are a team with a superior amount of talent compared to most teams, but that talent grossly underachieves. That sums up Juice Williams in a nutshell, and 2009 is his final chance to impress.

2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5 Big Ten)

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

Someone should let Juice know Anthony Spencer is there to sack and strip the ball from him. Nah, Anthony will do it himself. This is from the 2006 game and it is seconds before Alex Magee recovers a fumble for a huge game-changing TD.

Last Season for the Illini:

This is our least celebrated trophy rivalry. While we play Notre Dame and Indiana each year, Illinois regularly rotates off the schedule. They are technically the closest Big Ten team to West Lafayette, giving reason for the rivalry. Still, they are not a protected rival like Indiana, as Northwestern is our second protected rival. Purdue has a slight three game lead in the Cannon portion of the series thanks to our recent four game winning streak.

Last year was a raging disappointment after Illinois played in Pasadena. It was probably one of the least deserved BCS bowl bids ever, but Illinois did have an impressive 2007 season. It was the Illini's first bowl bid since 2001. Last year was a return to normal for Illinois. A 5-7 finish against a rough schedule has many once again questioning Ron Zook coaching ability.

Would Matt Painter do this?

Illinois really wasn't that far off last year. They played Missouri, Penn State, and Ohio State close in three very tough games. With a bowl bid on the line they folded on the road against Northwestern in the season finale, giving the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk to Northwestern for all time.

Illinois probably plays the manliest non-conference schedule outside of our own. They open in a neutral site game against Missouri again. They then have a home opener against Brock Spack's Illinois State team. Illinois had better hope they have a good Big Ten season, as they finish the year with two tough non-conference games at Big East Champ Cincinnati and at home against Fresno State. Our game comes after a trip to Indiana.

Illinois offense:

The 2008 version of the Illinois offense grossly missed Rashard Mendenhall. After running for a school record 1,681 yards in 2007, no one could match his total. Williams led the team with 719 yards and five touchdowns. Daniel Dufrene tried to replace Mendenhall's production, but added only 663 yards and no touchdowns. Jason Ford didn't have many yards, but he led the team with eight touchdowns as a true freshman. He could see more time in the backfield than Dufrene. Williams has long been a serious rushing threat with over 2,000 yards in his career.

The one knock on Williams has been his passing ability. Yardage-wise, he has always been fine. He will likely leave Illinois as it all-time passing yardage leader, but he has been erratic at best. 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns for 2008 are good. A 57% completion percentage and 16 interceptions are not. Williams has thrown 37 interceptions in 35 career games, so the likelihood of him suddenly cutting down on picks is low. He has actually thrown more interceptions in each successive season so far. The Illini are a better team by far when Williams does not have to throw much.

When he does throw, however, he has perhaps the best receiver in the conference throw to. Arrelious Benn has been almost everything Illinois fans have hoped for the past two seasons. He had 67 catches for 1,055 yards, but only three touchdowns last season. He has just five scores for his career despite impressive numbers elsewhere (sounds like Taylor Stubblefield pre-2004). He has to find the end zone much more often than he has already. Williams has spread his touchdowns around quite a bit. Seven different receivers had at least two scores last season, but no one had more than four. That means there is not one player we can totally focus on in red zone situations. That also makes Williams' rushing ability that much more dangerous.

Illinois must replace its center and left tackle from a line that gave up 25 sacks a year ago. Jon Asamoah at right guard and Jeff Allen at right tackle are both mainstays at 6'5" and 310+ pounds, but the rest of the line is in flux. Eric Block will move from left guard to center. Randall Hunt and Corey Lewis will both be on the left side and each has size at 6'6" and 320+ pounds. We should be able to generate a pass rush, but we have to finish off Williams once we get to him. Of course, to this point we will have faced Chandler Harnish, Jeremiah Masoli, Adam Weber, and Terrelle Pryor. What is one more mobile quarterback?

Illinois Defense:

In CFN's Illinois defensive preview, Pete Fiutak said that Illinois has a tremendous offense and Illinois defense needs to be merely average. I beg to differ. Illinois' offense committed 26 turnovers last year and generated a ton of yards, but not a ton of points. The defense was okay against the pass, but teams ran for more than 150 yards per game against the Illini. It will have to be much better than the merely adequate it was last year. It must also replace linebacker Brit Miller, who led the Illini in virtually every defensive category.

Illinois' defensive line generated 32 sacks, so it could get into the backfield. End Doug Pilcher is the most regular starter that returns, though Josh Brent and Sirod Williams are starters that battled injuries most of the year. Williams and Brent are tackles that should help in run situations. Brent is already on thin ice, however, after an offseason DUI cost him spring practice via suspension. Jerry Brown could also start at the other end position, but his academics are in question.

Martez Wilson is a highly touted recruit that is expected to do even better than Miller and American Hero J Leman at middle linebacker. Wilson played on the outside a year ago and amassed 73 tackles, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries. Illinois has a history of great middle linebackers, and Wilson is expected to be the next one. He'll be joined on the outside by Ian Thomas and Russell Ellington. Both are sophomores with not much experience. Nate Palmer and Justin Staples are both huge linebackers that redshirted last season and could be ready for serious playing time.

Best highlight from our last win over Illinois

The secondary lost a first round pick when the Dolphins drafted cornerback Vontae Davis. He led Illinois in interceptions with just two, but was in on 18 pass break ups. As a whole, Illinois picked off only six passes. Dere Hicks at cornerback and Donsay Hardeman at safety are the only two returning players that had an interception last year. Hardeman is a senior in his second season after being a very promising JUCO transfer last season. With 44 tackles and a pick he is expected to make an even bigger leap in year two. Garrett Edwards and Travon Bellamy should also see some time at safety, especially since Hardeman is recovering from a neck injury.

As a whole, this is a defense that is battling some serious injury and discipline issues. There is talent, but no less than four key players are uncertain because of injury, academics, or discipline. They aren't a group that will pick off a ton of passes and they could be susceptible against the run.

Illinois Special Teams:

Matt Eller is a decent sophomore kicker, hitting 15 of 20 field goals in his rookie year. He was not a weapon on kickoffs though. Illinois gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns and almost 25 yards per return. That means we should be able to get decent field position. The punting was almost equally awful. Opponents averaged 11 yards per return and Anthony Santella averaged less than 40 yards per kick.

In the return game we must keep our eyes on Benn. While he hasn't broken a return for a touchdown, he has the ability to do so. He'll handle both kick and punt return duties. We can't kick away from him on kickoffs, either. A.J. Jenkins averaged 22.3 yards per return with a touchdown last year as the second half of a dangerous return tandem.

Intangibles:

With this game being the seventh on the schedule for the Illini it presents an interesting situation. Illinois has an absolutely brutal slate before this game. The only sure wins are Illinois State and Indiana. There is a very strong chance they will be 2-4 with losses to Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State. That would make our game a must win possibly to save Ron Zook's job.

Personally, I view it a must win for us. If we're going to go bowling we have to get the four most winnable games we play at home against Toledo, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and Illinois. It is probably the biggest swing game we face all year. Win, and we may only need a late season win at Indiana to go to a bowl. Lose, and we'll need a home upset over Michigan State, a road upset at Wisconsin, or an unlikely win at Michigan.

Those two factors are huge. We could have a lot to play for given our coaching situation and expectations, while Illinois may have nothing to play for given theirs. I am still not sold on Zook's coaching talent. Illinois managed to parlay one big upset at Ohio State into a Rose Bowl berth. That is really all they have accomplished as a program since 2001. Even with a talent advantage over most teams they have a worse track record than Notre Dame in terms of developing that talent and getting the most out of it. Of all the programs in the Big Ten, Illinois seems to be the one that has the wildest fluctuations. In this decade alone they have either played in a BCS bowl or no bowl at all. 2009 looks to fit right in with that history. They have the talent to be in the BCS, but the result could be very different.

Game Outlook:

I am excited to see an erratic passer in Juice Williams face off against one of the best secondaries in the Big Ten. I am even more excited that new defensive coordinator Donn Landholm stresses creating turnovers against a team that is turnover prone. Williams has certainly improved since 2006, but that game was a nightmare for him. With an even worse defense than we have now, Williams turned the ball over four times... in five plays.

Offensively, we should have some room to run the ball. All we need to do is give Elliott time to throw and the Illinois secondary isn't known for its tight coverage. I really like or chances going into this game, and it needs to end as a win.

Prediction:

I am not sold on Illinois. Maybe Toki from Hail To The Orange will have some things to say that will convince me otherwise, but I think Illinois is going to have a rough year. It will also cost Ron Zook his job. I think Purdue holds its own at home and gets a step closer to bowl eligibility. Purdue 27, Illinois 21

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

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Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed