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Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Game week 1: Mizzou Tigers

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:36:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

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Thank Tebow, its finally a week where we can talk about an actual game

So let us figure out the matchup against the Tigers of Missouri.

What happened last year: The Ilini and Mizzou had a barn burner that resulted in over 1,000 total yards of offense, including 5 TD's and 450 yards by Juice through the air. The defense was fairly easily picked apart early on and was run, mostly straight up the middle for 130 yards by Derrick Washington. Although at one point the Illini were up 13 to 7, on the play immediately following their go ahead score Jeremy Maclin returned a kick for a TD and Mizzou went on a scoring tear going up 31 to 13 at half. The Illini did come storming back in the second half, but Mizzou was able to keep pace well enough to finish on top 52 to 42.

Who's gone and who returns?: This story may very well have a happy ending after all. Chase Daniel, who threw for 3 TDs, gone. Jeremy Maclin who returned a kick for a TD (two years in a row) gone, Chase Coffman, who had 120 yards receiving, gone. Along with half of the starters on defense. Most important returning factor for the Illini is Derrick Washington who surprised the Illini and ran all over a defense that was expecting alot more throwing. This year the Illini lose very talented DE's Will Davis and Derek Walker, along with DT David Lindquist. While the Dline loses talent, it may be stronger on the inside. Instead of 3 DE's starting on the line this year, the Illini will be starting 2 players at DT who did not see the field against Mizzou last year, Josh Brent and Corey Liuget. On offense, well you know the usual suspects of the Illini, Juice, Benn, Cumberland, Uh-oh and on and on.

Projection after the jump.

So that leaves the Illini with perhaps a weaker defense against the pass but stronger against the run. Luckily for the Illini, they will be meeting a Mizzou team that loses most of its passing offensive firepower. It will be starting Soph Blaine Gabbert, who will be seeing his first time behind center in a real game. Mizzou will more than likely want to lean on Washington to get Gabbert comfortable, which is beneficial to an Illini team with strength up the middle.

On offense the Illini should capitalize on a defense that loses 7 starters from last year, especially on a secondary that returns only 1 true starter of 4. If the Illini can move the ball against the Tigers like they did last year, with out giving up the game changing special teams play as they have for the last two years they can and should win this game. This is of all of the Arch Rivalry games, the best opportunity for the Illini. Mizzou is very inexperienced and the Illini catch a QB in his first start ever. The Illini are very experienced, loaded on offense and should be able to control the game. If the Illini can't beat the Tigers this year, when they enjoy so many advantages, and while coming so close when they were over matched then I guess I don't know football.

Further speculation and second guessing to come as the weeks rolls on.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

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Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

2009 NFL Draft: Official Scouts Inc. 7-round mock draft

Fooch — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:00:13 -0000

While we do have an official mock drafting FanPost, I thought the official 7-round mock draft presented by Scouts Inc and Todd McShay was worth posting to the front page. Well, the 7 rounds for the 49ers at least. If you have any questions about who went where, post it in the comments and I (or anybody else with Insider access) will be happy to post an answer. I figure that doesn't cross ethical boundaries....maybe.

1. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss - While I do like Oher, this remains less than inspiring given where Oher is listed among best players available. If it comes down to Oher and Sanchez I remain convinced the 49ers will trade down. Of course McShay and Co. actually have Sanchez going 4th overall. I'm really quite intrigued to see what happens with Sanchez on Saturday.

2. Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan - A quick search brought up a Mocking the Draft scouting report on Delmas (and the fact that the Cowboys took him with their 2nd round pick in our mock draft). The general idea with Delmas is that he is great in coverage, but a bit soft in tackling and might be a bit undersized. As a 4-year starter and 3-time all MAC player he would likely be able to provide some solid competition for Dashon Goldson.

3. Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston - Vollmer ranks right behind Phil Loadholt and Jamon Meredith among offensive tackles. At 6'7, 314lbs he definitely brings some serious size to the tackle position. It sounds like his primary weaknesses are bull rushers getting in under him and generally plays too high. Of course, when you're 6'7, I'd imagine it's difficult to play low. Is it possible for a guy to be toooo tall at offensive tackle?

4. Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina - The folks at Mile High Report have an interesting scouting report on the 6'0, 189lb corner from USC. Size-wise he seems like Dominique Zeigler. However, his hands don't seem quite as sure as Zeigler's can be. If he has to add some bulk in the NFL it could hurt his speed. At the same time, he seems to play well against zone defenses. Who knows how smart a player he is but he seems to recognize the limitations of his size.

5a. James Davis, RB, Clemson - While it's hard to tell at this point, some folks would have you believe Davis is worth upwards of a third round pick. From what the Scout's Inc report indicates, Davis is not the fastest guy in the world but has a strong ability to read the defense and exploit holes. All things considered, I wonder how much more the 49ers would be getting from him than what we already get in Frank Gore. The 49ers do need another running back, but would it be better to go with a more complementary back?

5b. Ryan Mouton, CB, Hawaii - At 5'9, 187 lbs, Mouton definitely doesn't bring much size to the secondary. At the same time he seems to have a lot of athleticism and really likes to hit folks. While he might turn into a solid NFL corner, I see him as more of a special teams guy. Anybody who is small and likes to hit people seems to work well as a special teams option.

After the jump we go through the 49ers last three picks and give some wrap-up analysis.

6. Anthony Parker, G, Tennessee - At 6'1 297lbs, one of the main concerns with Parker is his somewhat below average size for an NFL guard. Apparently his speed is fine but if he has to put on weight, will the speed come down? He seems to have the skills needed to be successful, but I keep coming back to size. The NFL is getting bigger and bigger. Any thoughts on relatively undersized offensive linemen?

7a. Tom Brandstater, QB, Fresno State - I put together a scouting report back in early March about the local boy. He's got size and surprising speed for such a guy. The problem is accuracy. If they snagged him in the 7th round I would be quite pleased at the value. I'm not sure if he's a long-term solution, but I'm intrigued to see what could happen with him in camp.

7b. Derek Walker, DE, Illinois - Walker is a bit undersized for a defensive end, but he seems like a guy who could fit the 3-4 DE role of occupying blockers. It sounds like he brings solid strength to the position which seems like one more positive for the 3-4 DE role.

So there you have it. Three different OL, FS, CB, DE, QB, RB and WR. I find value in a lot of the picks, but I'm not sure I see three offensive linemen being drafted. Maybe two, but three seems a bit much. Walker is the only DL/LB taken and it sounds like he can't make the conversion to OLB. I definitely think an OLB gets drafted somewhere in there.

I'm sure folks have plenty of areas of disagreement with this mock. Thoughts?

DE, Derek Walker, Illinois

Jeremy Bolander — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 20:53:51 -0000

DE, Derek Walker, Illinois

At A Glance
Position 1: Defensive End	Height: 6-4
Position 2: Outside Linebacker	Weight: 268
Class: Senior	Age:
Projected Round: 6th	40time: 4.98

Combine/Proday Results
Bench Reps: 24	Vertical: 37.5
20yd Split: 2.84	Broad Jump: 9'7"
10yd Split: 1.60	20yd Shuttle: 4.41
3 Cone Drill: 7.31

Pros: Legitimate NFL frame. ... Good overall strength at the point of attack. ... Can anchor in the running game due to his lower-body strength and can push the tackle into the pocket.

Cons: Not an elite athlete. ... Only phone-booth quickness. ... Struggles a bit laterally and needs an open lane to close on the ballcarrier.

Styg's Broncos Fit: An ideal player to draft for immediate depth on the line. He doesn't have quite the speed or strength to reach the next level, but he is capable and understands his role on the line. He is willing and able to occupy multiple blockers, and he has the size and burst to demand double teams on a limited basis. He is durable and gives everything he has, but he empties the cup pretty quickly and so doesn't project as a long-term solution as a starter. For cheap, effective and immediate depth, he should be a great find.

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Illinois' Derek Walker is a solid pro prospect, but routinely gets overshadowed by conference mates like Aaron Maybin, Brandon Grahm, Maurice Evans, Greg Middleton, Matt Shaughnessy, and Tim Jamison. The Illini senior got off to another good start in 2008, recording 18 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 pass broken up in coverage, 2 recovered fumbles, and even intercepted his first career pass (which he returned for a touchdown) early in the season. Unfortunately for him, as Illinois began to struggle, so did he. [see more...]
Possesses decent height and good overall girth and length for the position. Is a natural bender who coils up well and has a decent first step off the edge. Displays a violent outside swat move and uses his upper body strength and technique to shed blocks. Has the power and base strength to hold the point of attack and consistently set the edge or disengage from blocks. [see more...]

2009 NFL Draft -- Off the Edge -- Defensive Ends Ranked for Denver

Jeremy Bolander — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 22:30:07 -0000

NT may be the weakest position on the roster (we have a total of zero legitimate NTs), but 3-4 DE may be the second worst. While we do have players at the position (Marcus Thomas and Peterson) and Thomas can even be argued to have some talent and upside, we simply have nothing even remotely proven. The difference between the two positions, NT and DE, for us is that a true 3-4 DE may be even harder to find, as the draft is very weak at this position. While 4-3 DE and 3-4 rush OLB are so prevalent that half the names on the DE and OLB chart are made up of these prospects, selfless and stout at the point-of-attack inside defenders are actually pretty rare.

There are some options open in the draft however. An outside the box solution is to prioritize some of great ILB prospects, to help pick up the slack. Also, there are a number of DTs who may fit better being moved over to end, like Hood, Marks or Moala. And there are certainly some other legitimate, experienced options at the position, but their distribution in the draft is disconcerting.

While DTs can be had at each level of the draft, no true 3-4 DEs project to be available in the middle rounds, from the end of the third to the middle of the sixth. DTs like Walker and Scott may be available in those areas, but will require converting, if they are to play DE. DE features a group of highly talented overall players projected in the first, a group of talented, but questionable players that make up the rest of the first day, and the beginning of Day 2. But the gap between these players and a tiny contingent of sure rotational players and highly questionable projects is immense.

Bottom line, the sooner Denver addresses this position, the better.

Let's check out the rankings:

DE-Brian Orakpo

1st

Brian Orakpo, Texas: Orakpo projects more as a rush OLB, and a very fine one at that. Though Denver looks to have a number of bodies at the position, and have little chance to actually target Orakpo, they probably still have him highly ranked. Orakpo is really the whole package, with a variety of rush moves, the ability to play up or in the dirt, tremendous awareness, which makes him a steadying force against misdirection offenses and plays, and the strength to disengage from blockers and bring down the ball carrier.

DE--Everette Brown

1st

Everette Brown, Florida State: Much closer to what Denver is looking for, Brown is still primarily more of a rush OLB or 4-3 end. Where he might interest Denver is his unusual strength at the point of attack, where he can discard one-on-one blocks and anchor vs. the run. But he needs to add bulk for a consistent 3-4 end, and he didn't flash any ability to take on or defeat double teams. Unlike Orakpo, he has not had a lot of experience from a rush OLB role, so it is doubtful he will acclimate to the position right away, if moved there. An all-around good player with potential, but not likely to fit Denver's scheme.

DE--Tyson Jackson

1st-2nd

Tyson Jackson, LSU: The first true 3-4 DE prospect who is likely to go off the board, Jackson has the right qualities for the position, including the required "team-first" attitude. He has good, but not elite quickness off the snap, but he is consistent about discarding blockers and causing havoc around the line of scrimmage. Though he lacks the variety of pass rush moves you would like to see, he is definitely "field aware" and knows where his teammates are and what his responsibilities are. As a four-star prospect, he is a great match for Denver, but #12 may simply be too early, and the second round may be too late.

DE--Robert Ayers

1st--2nd

Robert Ayers, Tennessee: Ayers' technique really impressed me, and later, when I read that the knock against him was that he didn't have a good first step, it seemed to me that the other evaluators were missing the point. While 4-3 teams are complaining that Ayers isn't quick enough off the edge to help them with their pass rush, 3-4 teams will be anticipating getting a great value. Ayers anchors well vs. the run, and is great at keeping low and keeping blockers away from him. He has all the moves, and specializes in changing up his first step - sometimes quick, sometimes slower, to keep the blocker off balance. His experience and success at DT should give him the right attitude to contribute quickly, and his football intelligence should make him an attractive option for McDaniels and Co. The drawback is his relative overall inexperience lining up as a starter. Recognition and other playing-time-centric skills may be undeveloped, or he may be the classic "one-year-wonder" of draft bust fame. From my viewpoint, what he can do is for real, but he will have to expand his game to guarantee a spot on the defensive line long-term. Four stars for what he is, and what he can provide right now.

DE--Michael Johnson

2nd

Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech: Though inconsistent, and not quite the strong type of anchor we should be looking at, he has a tall (6'7") frame with lots of potential to add more build without affecting his first step. Very good chance that he translates better to a strongside OLB prospect, but his potential on the line is undeniable, and his athleticism could be harnessed best there, as his drop-back coverage skills are non-existent. He needs to get significantly stronger and work on his technique to prevent his height from hurting him more than it helps. Also needs to improve his situational awareness, and learn to get his hands up. Overall, might not be the best project to take on for a team in desperate need of talent on the D-Line. His high draft stock puts him way out of Denver's reach, but players have plummeted before, and Johnson could be a valuable backup with starter potential.

DE--Paul Kruger

2nd

Paul Kruger, Utah: Another returned missionary, Kruger is an excellent athletic package whose age and eligibility all are tied up because of the two-year mission for his church. Yet another high-character guy, great motor, strong at the point of attack. He will try to add some weight to his frame, which should help him in anchoring against the run, but he has the versatility to stand up at OLB, and the speed to cover the TE. As a 25-year-old rookie, with the need to strengthen his frame and work on consistently staying low, his value may still make him a first-day pick. Three stars for a smart player who will need to slide into the second day before Denver can afford to take a look.

DE--Jarron Gilbert

2nd-3rd

Jarron Gilbert, San Jose State: Absolutely prototypical size for the 3-4 DE, he flashes athleticism that belies his 290 lbs, and word is, he can add more weight. He has excellent balance, startling production, and a famous YouTube video...ok, the last, while cool, is hardly the measure of the man. He has had some maturity concerns, but nothing that shows up in his game film. He is a relatively consistent source of pressure, but needs to work on not getting too tall against blockers and overall needs address his knowledge of the game. His impressive lower-body strength does not translate consistently to explosion off the snap; I suspect conditioning issues with him fading late in games. The number-one knock against him, however, and the one he can't address, is that the level of competition he faced did not provide the challenge needed to expose holes in his game. Overall he could be a solid find at the beginning of day 2.

DE--Mitch King

3rd

Mitch King, Iowa: This may be Denver's last chance to nab a true starting DE prospect in the 2009 draft, and for my money, King could merit going sooner than the 3rd round. His consistent technique puts him up with the head of the class, and his passion for the game and football intelligence are obvious, stellar qualities. He was a consistent producer, getting much of his production on his own, though because he is considered shorter than average (6'2") this production is often labeled "overachieving." What stands out in his technique is how he never gets stood up by blockers, and indeed can frustrate double-teamers who fail to back him up. He is a master at getting leverage and keeping blockers' hands out of his body. Doesn't have the kind of speed that most teams want from their ends, but he does have a good first step. If Denver has the patience to wait and the intuition not to wait too long, King could be one of the best players at 3-4 DE to come out of this draft, and Denver could get him.

DE--Michael Bennett

6th

Michael Bennett, Texas A&M: After what can only be called a drought at the 3-4 DE position through the middle rounds of the draft, it isn't until the final picks and college free agency that we start to again see some potential there, starting with Bennett. He is a physical specimen who has never added up to the sum of his parts. He lacks both the explosiveness in the pass rush and anchor against the run to be projected as a starter in the near future. As a project, he does have some things going for him though. His length will allow him to practice at either end of the line, and he has experience at both positions. He has adequate-to-good speed for pressuring the blocker, and he knows how to use his hands in a bull rush, one of his few moves. Not a lot going for him, but enough to stand above others this late in the draft.

DE--Derek Walker

6th-7th

Derek Walker, Illinois: An ideal player to draft for immediate depth on the line. He doesn't have quite the speed or strength to reach the next level, but he is capable and understands his role on the line. He is willing and able to occupy multiple blockers, and he has the size and burst to demand double teams on a limited basis. He is durable and gives everything he has, but he empties the cup pretty quickly and so doesn't project as a long-term solution as a starter. For cheap, effective and immediate depth, he should be a great find.

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:00:07 -0000

Can you feel it? That's right...BTBS is back in your life...

Missouri		Illinois
	% Close* = 71.07%
	TOTAL
82	Plays	77
34.91	EqPts	34.13
45.1%	Success Rate	40.3%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.44
0.877	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.846

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
73	Plays	40
30.55	EqPts	10.55
45.2%	Success Rate	32.5%
0.42	PPP	0.26
0.871	S&P	0.589

	RUSHING
16.11	EqPts	5.40
47.2%	Success Rate	36.7%
0.45	PPP	0.18
0.920	S&P	0.547

	PASSING
18.80	EqPts	28.73
43.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.41	PPP	0.61
0.843	S&P	1.037

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.4%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.48	PPP	0.47
0.926	S&P	0.919

	PASSING DOWNS
46.4%	Success Rate	30.4%
0.32	PPP	0.37
0.783	S&P	0.674

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
5.45	Points Lost **	4.85
7.85	Points Given ***	8.27
13.29	Total T/O Pts	13.12
-0.17	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.17

* % close = the % of plays in the game that took place when the score was within two possessions. It gives you a different way of looking how tight the game really was. If a team scores two late TDs against scrubs and only loses by 14, the game may look like it was competitive, but "% of plays' will show that it probably wasn't. On the other hand, if a game is within 3 points with two minutes to go, and the leader scores two late TDs, the score won't indicate how tight the game really was.

** Points Lost = the combined points lost via turnover, as determined by the point value of the team's starting field position. Example: Sean Weatherspoon's first INT took place with Illinois at Mizzou's 29. The Mizzou 29 was worth 3.41 EqPts, meaning Illinois "lost" 3.41 points on the play.

*** Points Given = the combined points handed to the other team via turnover, as determined by the point value of the resulting field position. Example: Back to Weatherspoon's first INT--it resulted in Mizzou starting at their own 26, which is worth 1.27 EqPts. So Illinois "gave" Mizzou 1.27 points on the play. And obviously both Pick Sixes were worth 7 "points given".

Analysis after the jump.

Special Teams won the game for Mizzou

So it's pretty clear that the difference here was in special teams. Jeremy Maclin had the kick return TD and set up Tommy Saunders' 2nd TD with a long punt return, plus Jeff Wolfert banged a long FG. That alone accounts for the difference on the scoreboard.

That, and...

Mizzou's defense was stellar while the game was close

While the overall EqPts score was almost dead even (34.91 to 34.13 for Mizzou), close game stats told the tale. Mizzou's S&P was pretty much exactly the same whether the game was close or not (0.877 overall, 0.871 close), but Illinois did almost all of their damage when Mizzou had a lead of 17 or more. They only managed a 32.5% success rate and 0.589 S&P when the game was actually in the balance, and just like last year, when they game tightened up, the Mizzou defense (especially Sean Weatherspoon and Stryker Sulak) ratcheted up the intensity and quality of play.

So despite the evenness on the EqPts scorecard, Mizzou's close-game play (and the fact that almost 30% of the game was played with Mizzou having a lead of 17 points or more) shows who deserved to win this game.

Projections vs Performance

Mizzou Rushing

Projected: 12.00
Actual: 16.11 (+4.11)

Mizzou Passing

Projected: 18.00
Actual: 18.80 (+0.80)

Illinois Rushing

Projected: 11.00
Actual: 5.40 (-5.60)

Illinois Passing

Projected: 9.00
Actual: 28.73 (+19.73)

Mizzou had one weakness on defense: stopping the long-ball to the right side. It's a throw Juice Williams makes as good or better than anybody in the country (he just can't throw a slant), and power to UI for finding the hole and exploiting it.

Revisiting the Key Players for Illinois

RB Daniel Dufrene

Daniel Dufrene: 13 carries, 3.15 EqPts, 30.8% success rate, 0.24 PPP, 0.550 S&P. Granted, he made himself useful with another 1.19 EqPts receiving, but Illinois was completely unable to establish the ground game, so...FAIL.

RG Jon Asamoah

Ziggy Hood: 2.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 50.0% success rate.

Ziggy was in the backfield quite a bit, but Juice was able to avoid him. His stats weren't great, but Mizzou's DTs were able to blow up the middle of line repeatedly, especially on runs. So I'm going to say slight fail for Asamoah.

DE's Will Davis, Doug Pilcher, Derek Walker and Jerry Brown

Will Davis: 3.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 58.3% success rate
Doug Pilcher: 3.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 75.0% success rate
Derek Walker: 1.5 successful tackles, 100.0% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)
Jerry Brown: 1.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 100.0% success rate

COMBINED: 9.5 successful tackles (2.0 TFL), 73.1% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)

The Pick Six from Walker was nice, obviously--he read the play perfectly and got to the endzone untouched. But the 2.0 TFL and 0.0 sacks were far less than what was expected from this unit. The only sack all night was a coverage sack, and really they didn't even hurry Chase Daniel all that much. If not for Walker's TD, this would have clearly been the biggest FAIL of the night. Big, big ups to the Mizzou O-line, particularly tackles Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown, for their bigtime play.

WR Arrelious Benn

Benn: 7 catches, 4.34 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 0.62 PPP, 1.334 S&P. Decent, but rather unimpressive considering he had only a 0.960 S&P while the game was close. His end-of-game totals ended up solid, but he was anything but a game-changer, and he did nothing in the return game as well. Fail.

Revisiting the Key Players for Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Washington: 19 carries, 11.26 EqPts, 47.4% success rate, 0.59 PPP,1.067 S&P. He more than doubled Illinois' EqPts output by himself. SUCCESS.

WRs Jared Perry, Tommy Saunders, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp

Jared Perry: 5 catches, 3.83 EqPts
Tommy Saunders: 6 catches, 6.50 EqPts (and a fumble)

The freshmen did nothing (though Andrew Jones did have a catch), and Maclin (4 catches, 1.25 EqPts) was blanketed all night, but the two unheralded veterans came through. Granted, Saunders' fumble cost Mizzou a few points, but he balanced those out with the Q3 TDs. Success.

OLs Elvis Fisher, Ryan Madison, Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, Colin Brown

They gave up 1 sack, and Derrick Washington dominated. Success.

S Justin Garrett

Justin Garrett: 2.5 successful tackles, 45.5% success rate. Solid for a safety. But he also had at least one horrific bite on a pump fake. And Juice Williams nearly doubled his career best for passing yards in a game. Nobody gets a Success for that. Fail.

Bottom Line

Bottom line: BTBS projected a 10-point win, and we won by 10. So there should be little to complain about. But here's the thing: if you'd told me that a) Mizzou's O-line would dominate Illinois' D-line, b) Mizzou's D-line would dominate Illinois' O-line, c) Sean Weatherspoon would have 2 INTs, d) Stryker Sulak would have 3 sacks, e) Illinois' rushing offense would post a putrid S&P, f) Mizzou would dominate in special teams (and Jake Harry wouldn't suck), and g) Derrick Washington would go off, I'd have thought we'd have won by 30.

Again, Mizzou showed only one weakness*: the secondary opposite Carl Gettis. And I think the personnel is in place (and so is the schedule) to fix that weakness.

If you wanted to add a second weakness to the list, I guess the blitzes really were pretty ineffective (though that's counteracted by the two starting DEs putting up 4 sacks on their own).

So in all, this is still a pretty satisfying win. Mizzou dominated the last three quarters when the game was actually within reach for both teams. And man oh man did the offense look good, especially in Q2 and Q3. Illinois is the 2nd- or 3rd-most athletic/talented team on the schedule, and the Close-Game S&P margin was 0.871 to 0.589 for Mizzou. That's a really, really good sign for the rest of the year.

SB Nation - Derek Walker

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

---

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

Game week 1: Mizzou Tigers

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

LB Martez Wilson

DE Jerry Brown

FS Donsay Hardeman

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

2009 NFL Draft: Official Scouts Inc. 7-round mock draft

DE, Derek Walker, Illinois

DE, Derek Walker, Illinois

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Highlights:

Scouting Reports and Offsite Links:

2009 NFL Draft -- Off the Edge -- Defensive Ends Ranked for Denver

2009 NFL Draft Coverage-Merry Draftivus!!

DE-Brian Orakpo

1st

DE--Everette Brown

1st

DE--Tyson Jackson

1st-2nd

DE--Robert Ayers

1st--2nd

DE--Michael Johnson

2nd

DE--Paul Kruger

2nd

DE--Jarron Gilbert

2nd-3rd

DE--Mitch King

3rd

DE--Michael Bennett

6th

DE--Derek Walker

6th-7th

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Illinois