SB Nation - Doug Pilcher

Illini at Minnesota preview: part of the plan all along.

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

I suppose it is finally time to stop riding the happy train of victory that has kept me going all week and to start actually focusing at the game at hand.

In Minnesota, the Illini find themselves once again up against a team that sits at 5 wins, on the verge of going to a bowl, after Illinois, the Gophers play South Dakota state and Iowa which alternatively look like a lock for a win and a lock for a loss. You could say then that their season and hopes for a bowl bid are dependent upon this game. As I mentioned earlier this week at 6 losses and national coverage for being a disappointment the Illini have found themselves potentially playing spoiler to all the opponents left on their schedule. A loss to the Illini is a bad loss, and could be detrimental to a 6-6 team hoping to get into a last tier bowl. With SD State, Minnesota is assured 6 wins, with Iowa they are guaranteed a 5th loss. A win over Illinois then would make Minny almost sure to get 7 wins and a decent bowl a loss, no more than 6 wins and a bad loss hanging around your neck like an anchor.

The Illini nation, as Ron Zook often refers to it, has already begun to cling to the idea of "hey, if we win out, we are in a bowl." Despite Loren Tate's advice of being a bit more realistic in our dreams, many of us fans have already convinced ourselves that the fabled 2009 Illini from the preview magazines have finally arrived, and that they shall roll convincingly over the remaining competition to the most unlikely 6-6 bowl season ever. Yes that means we would be beating #5 Cincinnati. But hey doesn't that just tell you how badly we want this team to be better?

By this time on Sunday however we could wake up to a cold dose of reality, a 7th loss, a season without any remaining purpose and alot of questions in need of answering.

Until then however, we are perfectly happy delaying any of the not fun questions until this team is no longer celebrating a win.

Minnesota provides the opportunity for the team to prove whether or not they truly have gotten over what ever mental hurtles were preventing them from being successful throughout the first half of the season. We now know that a the very least it is possible for this team to go on the sort of explosive offensive runs and tough defensive stands we once had assumed.

Against a Minnesota team that also rolled out 500 yards of total offense the week before, they are not going to have the benefit of a full half of mediocre football. Last week Minnesota QB Adam Weber threw for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, all without sure thing first round WR Eric Decker, the guy that rocked us last year.

The defensive game plan this week is going to be much different than Michigan. Minny is going to throw the ball all over the field and the secondary is going to have to step up like they did last week. All of the sudden, Illini fans are ecstatic that Terry Hawthorne was moved to defense. Maybe even more important is the play of Clay Nurse, Corey Liuget, Josh Brent and Doug Pilcher. The defensive line played better than at any point all year against Michigan. Getting into the backfield and pressuring, sacking, and hurrying Weber will go a long way in taking pressure off of the secondary.

For the first time, I feel pretty good about our offense. I believe that they can do what they did last week, and that is run, run run with Leshoure and Juice in every imaginable way. Options, end reads, keepers and plain old I formation hand offs. Just as key however will be Juice's passing in key situations. Against Michigan Juice was 8-11 with no INTs, the model of efficient QB play. If he can get a line like that this week, I think this Illinois team wins.

See what a difference a win makes? I'm already back to my overly optimistic ways.

Alright guys, don't blow it now

BoilerTMill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:47:26 -0000

I am trying to keep the good vibes going. If anyone listened to the Boiled Sports podcast Tuesday night I made a pretty bold statement. I said that as good as the Ohio State win was, losing to Illinois would be 10 times worse. As a result, I am watching the video of the Ohio State win as I write this, hoping it carries over into the blog.

It is true though. If we can beat Ohio State, there is absolutely no reason we should lose to Illinois. You do not often get a chance to play the best team in the conference, then the worst team in the conference the very next week. I would even take it a step further. With Ohio State, we may have played the best team on our schedule last week (though Oregon may be better since they have a real offense). I think Illinois is the worst team on our schedule. They proved last week they are worse than Indiana. I think they are worse than Toledo (who beat NIU last week) and Northern Illinois. This is a team that has quit on its season already. They need to win their remaining games (one of which is against one of the nation's last unbeaten teams) just to qualify for a bowl. Unless we see some unexpected fight from the Illini Saturday, they are done.

2008 Record: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

2009 Record: 1-5, 0-4

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6 (Purdue leads The Cannon portion 29-26-2)

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

This may be one of the least celebrated trophy games in the Big Ten, but it is one of the closest overall. We have had the Cannon in our possession since 2003, but the recent two-year hiatus in the series means that we only have four straight wins. Speaking as a Purdue fan, the Illinois game really doesn't feel like much of a rivalry. There has never been a ton at stake, as both teams haven't exactly torn up the Big Ten at the same time for quite awhile.

Illinois offense:

This is the main reason that any loss to the Illini would be awful. Their offense, especially if you take away the 45-17 win over Illinois State (a 1-AA team), has been abysmal. That one win represents 45 of the 99 points the team has scored through six games. Not only has Illinois managed just one first half touchdown against a 1-A foe, they have only led one game against a 1-A opponent for about five minutes. That occurred last week at Indiana when the Illini led the Hoosiers 7-3 with 5:27 left in the first half. Illinois gave up 10 points in the final minute of the half, and never threatened again.

I don't even know who we will face at quarterback. Juice Williams (80 of 143, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) is the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has already been benched in favored of Eddie McGee (21 of 41, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). There is even talk of third string quarterback Jacob Charest, a redshirt freshman, getting some time Saturday. Charest has yet to take a snap in his collegiate career, so if he plays it will officially label Illinois as desperate. Illinois has only passed for 1,128 yards between Williams and McGee.

For a true preview of Saturday, just reverse the 9 and 4 on the jersey. The result of this play (a sack, strip, and fumble recovery for a TD) will likely be the same.

Whoever plays, they will likely become well acquainted with Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Neal, and the rest of our defensive line by the end of the day. The Illinois offensive line is among the worst in the Big Ten, giving up a league high 19 sacks. If our defensive line is not dominating and causing pressure all day something is severely wrong. This is especially true since these guys just played like warriors against Ohio State.

Illinois is not moving the ball well on the ground, either. Williams is the leading rusher with only 239 yards and one touchdown. Jason Ford (222-1), Daniel Dufrene (199-1), and Mikel Leshoure (163-2) form a running back by committee approach that is far from effective. McGee also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, so he is a threat to run if he plays. One has to remember though that the bulk of these numbers, running and passing, have been put up either against Illinois State or after the game is well decided. Illinois has not been in a game against a 1-A foe except last week against Indiana.

If they can get him the ball, there is a bit of a danger at wide receiver. Arrelious Benn was a preseason All-American, but he has only 22 catches for 271 yards and no touchdowns to lead Illinois receivers. As long as we cover him we will shut down Illinois' pathetic passing game. Jarred Fayson (11-119-1), Chris Duvalt (9-136-1), Leshoure (8-115-1), and A.J.Jenkins (7-100-1) have put up modest second half numbers, but again, this offense has literally done nothing in the first half of most games. They need to get the ball to Benn more, who is a playmaker, but they have been unable to.

Illinois defense:

This is a battered unit. They have already lost possibly their best player in Martez Wilson for the season. They may have lost their second best player, Donsay Hardeman, for his career last week. They are not getting to the quarterback with just six team sacks on the year. The offense is doing nothing to help them out, so the defense is getting worn down to the point where it is about as reliable as the Rhythm Method in preventing conception. They have also only forced seven turnovers (three interceptions, four fumbles), and three of those came against Illinois State. I kind of feel bad for them because they are undoubtedly playing hard, but they are getting zero help from their teammates.

Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece. Thomas has one of the team's sacks, while Wilson has one of the three interceptions. Doug Pilcher is a bit of a force on the defensive line as well. Pilcher has two sacks, 18 tackles, and an interception with a 41 yard return. Russell Ellington could also be a factor, as he has an interception with a 78 yard return. This is still not a fearsome unit.

Illinois is giving up over 28 points per game and their run defense is particularly bad. They are giving up about 180 yards on the ground, which is good for Ralph Bolden. Bolden has not had much room to run recently, and against Northwestern when he did have room we just kept fumbling the ball away. Look for Bolden to get over 100 yards for the first time since the Oregon game. McBurse and Taylor should also see some holes when they are in there. The pass defense is not much better, as it gives up 241 yards per game.

Honestly, we should only have trouble against their defense if we start giving the ball away again. Turnovers were still an issue last week against Ohio State, but we gave up no points off of them. Illinois does not force nearly as many turnovers as Ohio State does, so it once again comes down to us not shooting ourselves in the foot.

Illinois Special Teams:

And you thought their other units were bad. They have no punt return game (a long of nine yards), no kick return game (Benn is a dangerous returner, but only has a long of 33), and Matt Eller has hit on just half his field goals. Granted, the offense is not getting Eller in position to kick, as he is just 3 of 6 on the year with a long of 38.

One phrase we should get used to hearing is, "Anthony Santella is in punt formation". He averages almost six punts per game and has almost a 41 yard per kick average. Both coverage units on special teams for Illinois are merely average.

Intangibles:

This is a team that is already beaten. I watched part of Saturday night's game at Indiana and they had no hustle or emotion whatsoever. Beating them would officially end their bowl hopes, as there is no way they will win their five games after this and qualify at 6-6. This is Illinois' last shot to save its season, but given their body language and effort so far it would be a total shock to see them suddenly turn things on. Though Purdue and Illinois have similar record, Purdue has fought hard and has been in every single game. Illinois hasn't even been close, and they have rolled over and died since the opener against Missouri.

The one Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, has already virtually given up and jumped to basketball content. Their last two game wraps of Rock Bottom and Failing on all Cylinders show that confidence in the football program is at an all time low. There is no doubt that Illinois has more talent than a lot of teams, but that talent is severely underperforming in all phases of the game at the moment. They are even one of the most penalized teams in the league. I am not even going to mention the gigantic Ron Zook intangible right now. Every writer in the Big Ten is saying enough about his epic level of fail at the moment.

Contractually obligated Ron Zook blog picture. He will likely soon have plenty of time for his hobbies, such as fighting Boilerdowd to the death.

Purdue, meanwhile, is as high as it has been in about five years. Even the 8-6 season of 2006 and 8-5 season of 2007 did not have a moment that was a tenth as important as last week against Ohio State. As long as we don't go out and pull a Northern Illinois we will be fine.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Hogtie the team that showed up against Northern Illinois
Don't turn the ball over
Maintain last week's momentum
Run the ball with Bolden, McBurse, and Taylor
Dominate along the defensive line

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

JG2112 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Illinois - At a glance:

Location: Champaign, Illinois

Stadium: Memorial Stadium (size: 62,872)

Expected Attendance: 0. The game's in Minneapolis.

Undergraduate population: 31,173.

First season: 1890

Number of Big Ten Titles: 15

All-time record: 563-513-51

All-time bowl record: 6-9

Most awesome alum: this one's easy: current Gophers coach Tim Brewster

Most awesome Illinois fan site: Hail to the Orange.

Looking around the Big Ten, there are obviously a few different groups of teams and coaches. First, you've got the established teams with high-level recruits and coaches who have proven their mettle (Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan). Next, there is a group of solid teams with good but not great recruits, and outstanding coaches (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). Then there are the teams with middling recruits and teams which are average to below average performers (Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue). Then, you get to Minnesota and its Week 10 opponent, Illinois. Both teams have coaching staffs that recruit successfully, but there is really little indication that either head coach can actually coach.

When that's the case, you end up with a 7-1 start for the Gophers, followed by the November implosion. You also end up with the conference's best statistical QB playing his bowl game on Playstation 3 because his team couldn't beat Northwestern in the season finale.

That's why trying to figure out what's going to happen to each of these teams in 2009 is really hopeless until the non-conference slate is complete. Minnesota has new coordinators, a new stadium, and a new offensive philosophy. Illinois has a new offensive coordinator, has lost most of its defense, and yet is still highly recommended for a major bowl. This game is the conundrum within a mystery. Let's start de-constructing it by looking at.....

Illinois on Offense: The centerpiece of Illinois's team is QB Juice Williams. As a freshman, his completion percentage was under 40% and the team won 2 games. As a sophomore, his maturity was evident as he overruled Coach Zook and made a crucial fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter of Illinois' upset of Ohio State. As a junior, he alternated dominating performances such as a Michigan Stadium record 425 yards of offense, with embarrassing efforts in losses to Minnesota, Western Michigan and Northwestern. The expectation is that Williams will compete for the conference Player of the Year award in 2009.

However, he may not be the best player on his team. WR Arrelious Benn, despite only touching painted grass 5 times last year, had 67 catches for over 1000 yards, and really is the only wide receiver in the conference that is comparable in production to Eric Decker.

All of Illinois' other skill position players return. Running backs Daniel Dufrene (663 yards, zero touchdowns? in 2008), Jason Ford (294 and 8 TDs) and Mikel LeShoure (126 yards) are in the backfield. Monster wideout (six-foot-five, 255 pounds) Jeff Cumberland, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, and Chris Duvalt are returning wide players.

Along the offensive line, the Illini lose Xavier Fulton and Ryan McDonald to graduation (Fulton to the NFL). True sophomores Jeff Allen and Corey Allen will likely man the tackle positions, and Eric Block (C), Jon Asamoah and Randall Hunt complete the line.

Bottom line: Illinois on Offense: The popular preseason tendency for Illinois is to declare: Juice Williams + Arrelious Benn = domination. However, the team was 5-7 last year, and the Illini's failure to go bowling can be directly attributed to Wiliams' poor performances against Western and Northwestern. A lot will depend upon the young offensive line providing Juice with the ability to execute the spread, and to have time to pass to Benn and Cumberland.

Illinois was shredded by van der Steeg last year. This year, the defensive ends, as previewed by Buck Bravo, should have the opportunity to tee off on the two true sophomore tackles and disrupt the spread offense. If they can apply the needed pressure, Illinois may be forced to the pass early in the game.

Illinois on Defense: Illinois has lost quite a bit from their 2008 defense, including 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line, 3 of the top 4 linebackers, and first-round cornerback Vontae Davis. Of course, Illinois' defense has been reeling since 2007, when this guy graduated:

While the defense led the conference in sacks and tackles for loss per game, it also gave up 26.6 points per game in 2008, as opposed to 21.8 in 2007. Considering that 5 of the front seven's 2008 starters are no longer in Champaign, there is significant uncertainty as to how the defense will perform.

For what it's worth, senior end Doug Pilcher is named on the Hendricks Award watch list, and Josh Brent has been reinstated to the team after spending part of the summer in the pen for being a drunk driver. Martez Wilson has the chance to live up to his five-star billing in high school and help replace Brit Miller's 132 tackles in 2008, although getting stabbed in the offseason probably didn't do wonders for his conditioning (he and Kevin Whaley could have a few interesting chats at the bottom of a pile this year, heh?)

The secondary was not that bad in 2008, only allowing 197 passing yards per game. However, as mentioned before star Vontae Davis is now playing for the Dolphins, and took his 78 tackles with him. Travon Bellamy (53 tackles), Donsay Hardeman (44 tackles, 1 INT), Dere Hicks (43 tackles, 1 INT), and Bo Flowers (23 tackles) are the top returning performers.

Bottom Line - Illinois Defense: Outside of Wilson, there isn't much to know or really feel confident about in regard to this defense. Three of the top four tacklers have graduated, as have five of the Illini's front seven. Players that accounted for 20.5 of the team's conference-leading 32 sacks (THAT number led the conference?) and four of the team's six interceptions are gone.

As with Michigan State, the keys for succeeding against the Illini defense would revolve around getting a blocker on LB Martez Wilson, exploiting the inexperience on the defensive line, and getting the DBs to get suckered into play action. While the defense may be solid after 9 weeks of the 2009 season, there is no reason to have such confidence on August 12th.

Illinois Special Teams: Meh. Matt Eller returns to do placekicking, and was 15 for 20 in field goal kicking in 2008. Anthony Santella returns to punt, with a 39.40 ypp average, placing him eighth in the conference.

Short punts equal a possibility for returns. Calling Troy Stoudermire.

Anything else? Zook is known as a top rank recruiter. He recruited most of the players to Florida which ultimately won a national title under Urban Meyer's coaching in 2007. He has recruited well at Illinois, although some of his excellent recruiting staff members (notably his former offensive coordinator Mike Locksley, who went to New Mexico) have moved on. In 2009, Illinois pulled what Scout's garage experts rated as the #35 class in the country (for comparison, Minnesota's was #46). The marquee pickups were CB Justin Green, OT Andrew Carter, WR Terry Hawthorne, QB Nathan Scheelhaase, and DT Lendell Buckner. I would doubt any of these players get meaningful time in 2009 - they either play positions of strength for Illinois, or positions that usually redshirt.

The Bottom Line: What to Expect: Minnesota and Illinois are two of the true wild-cards of this conference. I wouldn't be surprised if either finished with records varying from 3-9 to 10-2. And therefore, the home field advantage is what I will use to separate the two teams. At this point, there is hardly any other way to separate them. On November 1st, however, both fanbases will have a better read on these teams, and TDG will re-examine this game.

Minnesota 34

Illinois 31.

Campfire Stories - Follow the Leader

Law Buckeye — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 04:14:58 -0000

As Adam Rittenberg reports, all expected players and personnel reported for the Illinois camp kickoff. The first fall workout in the Big Ten conference went off without a hitch this afternoon. Much has been made about Ron Zook and his talented 2006 recruiting class -- seniors flattered by the early success of an upset of a No. 1 team and a Rose Bowl bid, only to be hardened by last year's collapse.

Now, it's back to basics, as Zook campaigns to knead and shape his star power into a unified front. Teamwork -- a feature so rarely seen in last year's squad -- needs to take center stage for the Illini to live up to their potential. Maybe that's why Zook is courting transparency. All 18 camp practices are open to the public.

While early news is limited (save Wednesday's tweet on Zook's Twitter page that the player's have a "great attitude," and these short post-practice interviews) there are a few things to keep an eye on:

First, the coaching changes on the offensive side of the ball. As Illinitalk reports:

The biggest change on Zook's staff is the loss of Mike Locksley as offensive coordinator...The new offensive coordinator is Mike Schultz, who comes to the Illini from the TCU Horned Frogs. Schultz has a solid resume, and in 2008 he helped the Frogs set single-season school records for points scored (420) and touchdowns (54). His offense led the nation in time of possession (35:05) and were 13th nationally in team rushing (215.7 yards per game) despite not having a player among the top-100 individually. Let's hope Juice, Benn and company adjust well to Schultz.

Other adjustments on the offensive side of the ball include moving Kurt Beathard from outside receivers to QB coach. And Joe Gilbert joins the Zooker as Offensive Line coach. He was most recently in Houston. Gilbert replaces Eric Wolford, who left the Illini for the same position with Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks.

Clearly, the Illini offense has suffered some serious coaching attrition. Although my memories of the orange in 2008 are sullied by visions of Juice Williams throwing INTs at midfield, the 2008 offense was actually decent, when you consider its total output: 19th nationally. The brains behind the operation will be missed -- if only for the familiarity that comes from suiting up for the same guy.

Second, the play of the defense -- a unit that ranked 54th nationally in 2008. Defensive End Doug Pilcher, a Hendricks Award candidate, hopes to shore up a unit that averaged 197.4 yards a game in the air in 2008.

We'll keep you up to date as things develop in the coming weeks.

Watch the Fighting Illini:
Aug. 29 - Illinois Football Preview (10:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network)

Big Ten Media days Final Wrap Part 2

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 17:08:59 -0000

Next we come to the interview with Rejus Benn, by far the most highly touted NFL prospect on the team

One of the more squawked about items that came from Benn's one on one sessions was his apparent hatred for Iowa. Unlike perhaps what certain Iowa City papers may portray it, he seemed very respectful about his distaste for Ferentz's team. "I certainly dislike Iowa." A short but sweet statement about one of Illinois's more bitter of rivalries. I am surprised that this story had as much play as it did, considering that the two teams will not even play each other for the next two seasons. When he was asked why, he explained that he felt the Illini should have won the 2007, (a touchdown called back with an illegal procedure call) and that the fans rushed the field after beating them, something he thought was very disrespectful. He doesn't like the uniforms or the pink locker rooms or any of that. Regardless a player disliking another team doesn't seem as nearly important as Iowa may think.

He is not concerned whatsoever about there being too many receivers on offense for him to have a big season, He says that he is only concerned with winning. There is a good possibility of course that his catches will actually go up, if teams stop double teaming him because of the threats posed by Fayson and the other receivers.

I asked him, having lived in Champaign for two winters now, how does he feel about playing outdoors in Champaign in December.

He responded simply "I hope it snows." If you are fan of that "old fashioned cold weather football" what not, a statement like that probably makes you smile. I however am going to be at that game, freezing to death in the windy frigid Memorial Stadium. Maybe the cold weather will provide some benefit when playing a team from the warm sunny city of Fresno, but I would hope the Illini wouldn't even need that to win over the WAC team.

I asked a couple of questions to Doug Pilcher, but not enough for their own separate post...

I asked him how he felt about the offense getting most of the publicity for this coming season, and what he thought the defense could upstage the offense. He said that he didn't think the defense needs to steal the spotlight from the offense, but just hold up their end of the bargain. The defense needs to keep the team in the game, and give the offense an opportunity to succeed.

I asked him who he thought would step up this year and become a leader and possibly a star on defense. He told me to watch for Martez Wilson who should make a huge impact on the defense in the middle.

I asked him how strong he felt the line was and how much of an impact that Corey Liuget would have in his second year. He says the line will not disappoint this year, and that Liuget would definitely be making a name for himself at defensive tackle. I sure hope so, because with most of the questions about the defense being concerned with the secondary, a defensive tackle coming straight up the middle to sit on a Quarterback would go along way in helping this team's pass defense. A so-so defense can be helped most by strength along the line. And coverage deficiencies can be easily masked by a really good pass rush.

The final installment will of course deal with one Mr. Ron Zook. Stay tuned.

Big Ten Media Day 1 wrap up: in which our hero reflects on his experiences.

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:22:28 -0000

So that was definitely an experience to remember. If I haven't driven this point home for you people enough, I do this whole blog thing for fun, without any real talent for sports journalism or anything of the like. Don't ask me then, how I ended up at a media convention with all of these media professional types.

Full disclosure, I am 22 and fresh out of college, from the moderately populated Quad Cities, on the Illinois Iowa border. I don't consider myself one of them there wide eyed country boys what for aint never been to the big city before, and I consciously tried to avoid looking like one. Although that may be difficult when I am stuffing my bag with as much free swag as possible, and loading my plate up with a mountain of complementary lunch foods. Hey man, I am still a poor student that relies on a summer job for spending money, the grab the free shit impulse is strong in me.

I have to say that alot of thanks have to go to MaizenBrew Dave, without whom I would have been even more lost here. I am sure he could tell that I was about as nervous as can be about screwing up in some way and introduced me to some cool people as well as gave me pointers of what to do and when.

Although most of the day was spent painfully trying to look relatively professional and stuffing my face with some fine Chicago Hyatt sandwiches (natch) I did learn alot about the media in general heard a great deal from Zook in a huddle of print journalists and I hope provided some great stuff for the readers here on HTTO.

Tomorrow of course is the sit down day for interviews with players and coaches, I am going to do my best to get a word in edgewise with Zook and the players, but we will see, I do not want to cross Loren Tate. The whole deal starts back up bright and early tomorrow morning 8am central time. I'll be there providing my tweedle-dees and blog postings as best I can. Then its back my farm town to ride tractors for fun.

Hail to the Orange, live from Big Ten Media Days.

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 23:50:06 -0000

via theinfosphere.org

Trust me, no one is more surprised than me. Next Monday and Tuesday yours truly will be blogging all day from the Hyatt Regency in Chicago, home of the Big Ten Media Days. I can't think of anyone less likely to have been given press credentials to anywhere, let alone such a large event as this.

This is my first experience as an actual member of the media per se, at least outside typing nonsense from my dorm room/bar/parents apartment. At the very least, I am going to try not to embarrass myself. I am going to get the chance to actually have my questions answered from the people who actually play or coach the game. (Also a free lunch will be provided.) This is where the ~~vast,~~ ~~loyal,~~ respectable readership will come in handy. If you have any questions you want answered from Zook, Juice, Benn, Pilcher, or even Joe Paterno, this is your chance to maybe actually have them answered. Leave a question here and maybe I can ask them. I am the lowest of the low on the totem pole at this thing, but I'll see what I can do

Anyway, I guess I am going to have to work on being slightly more professional now.

Illini Football Unit breakdown: Defensive Line.

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:38:32 -0000

We stand at the door step of the month of July. The preview magazines have been released, the freshmen are on campus, and we are all getting ready for purest form of the game: college football. In the interest of getting all of you interested and excited (or pessimistic, depending on the case) about Illini football, HTTO is beginning its coverage of each of the teams units.Who will be the playing, who will be starring and what should we be expecting?

I believe, as the old adage goes, that games are won and lost up front on the lines. With that in mind I will begin with the Defensive and offensive lines and move away from the ball from there. So we begin today with the unit that may be the subject of the most speculation and uncertainty on the entire team. The defensive line.

Projected Starters. I suppose this is the million dollar question isn't it? From a line that lost Derek Walker, David Lindquist and Will Davis, and underperformed its potential last year, things already seem like they might be an uphill battle. Because last year line was supposedly so loaded with talent, but disappointed, Tom Sims, the DL coach was let go. In steps Keith Gilmore into a situation that only gets more complicated. If I had to list the ideal in terms of talent starting defensive line, I would probably list DE's Doug Pilcher and Jerry Brown flanking DTs Sirod Williams and Josh Brent. Why do I say ideal you ask? Well thus far Josh Brent is serving his 60 day jail sentence for DUI and driving on a suspended license, Sirod Williams is recovering from a torn ACL from last summer, and Jerry Brown may not be academically eligible to play. But hey Doug Pilcher is still good right? In the nightmare scenario of all three of these question marks go south, Brown doesn't clear, Sirod's knee isn't 100%, and Brent is suspended or leaves the team, the line could look very, very different. As in Corey Liuget, Antonio James, and whichever heretofore unseen DT wins out at Camp Rantoul.(Uzodinma?) Regardless, the line situation probably wont be all bad, I am sure that probably two out of three of the players in question will make it into the lineup somehow. Even with Sirod and Brent playing you can count of Liuget seeing significant playing time, even if he isn't starting. Clay Nurse and Antonio James too will more than likely play a lot regardless of Brown's situation.

Possible Star. He may not even be a guaranteed starter, but Corey Liuget has the makings of a very good player at 6'3", 290. He played really well last year as a true freshman. He is going to be a starter in 2010, and may overtake Josh Brent or Sirod Williams this year if he makes the big leap every one seems to think he will. He can and will get into the back field and disrupt plays, and he will only get better.

What To Expect? As I said earlier there is alot we still do not know about how this line will look when it takes the field in St Louis. How little we know about the Dline, especially at DT drives amplifies the losses of two former recruiting gems, Reggie Ellis and D'Angelo McCray. What was once perhaps the pride of depth of the defense has suffered an extreme amount of attrition.

Last year at about this time, the defensive line was being touted as perhaps the strongest aspect of the defense, and perhaps one of the better lines in the NCAA. These expectations were soon put to rest as the D line lost Sirod in camp and proceeded to fail to live up to those expectations from just about day 1. The D-line wasn't the only or even the worst problem for the team last year, but not being the strength we thought it was surely played a part in the huge numbers that were put up against the Illini on the ground.

The outcome of last year, along with the attrition since has led me to take a wait and see approach. Defensive Tackle is arguably the most important position in a college defense. Strength here will go a long way in masking other shortcomings on defense, and perhaps result in a stronger defense overall than last year. I will feel alot better if either Josh Brent or Sirod Williams comes through and contributes this fall. A core of DTs with Sirod, Brent and Liuget would be formidable indeed and could result in a stronger inside defense than we saw in all of 2008. With only Pilcher to look forward to as a reliable DE, the position will more than likely see some drop off. But frankly if the line is as strong as it could be up the middle it might not matter all that much. Bob Assmussen recently said that a defense that includes Josh Brent might mean an improvement of 30 yards given up, in the most unlikely scenario of Brown, Sirod and Brent all being cleared, healthy and not suspended, the Defensive Line will be without a doubt the strongest aspect of the defense on paper. Lets hope the expectations aren't so insurmountable this time around.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

---

Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Doug Pilcher

Illini at Minnesota preview: part of the plan all along.

Alright guys, don't blow it now

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

An Almost Timely Early Look At The 2009 Schedule - Week 10 v. Illinois - November 7, 2009.

Campfire Stories - Follow the Leader

Big Ten Media days Final Wrap Part 2

Big Ten Media Day 1 wrap up: in which our hero reflects on his experiences.

Hail to the Orange, live from Big Ten Media Days.

Illini Football Unit breakdown: Defensive Line.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

LB Martez Wilson

DE Jerry Brown

FS Donsay Hardeman

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch