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Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

BoilerTMill — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:07:30 -0000

I am waiting to do a formal wrap of Media Days for either late tonight or early tomorrow, but after seeing some of the other blog coverage I have decided I will be attending next year's event. It's only a short drive to Chicago. Of course, if I win tomorrow night's Powerball I can just hire a lackey to go for me. Wisconsin blogger Adam Hoge at Bucky's Fifth Quarter has a great 1st day wrap up team-by-team. In the mean time, on to the Illinois preview.

It is rare that we have played three non-conference opponents since we last played a conference opponent, but that is the case with each of our next two opponents. We haven't played Illinois or Wisconsin since 2006, but we played Toledo in 2007 and both Oregon and Notre Dame last season. In each case, we are facing a team that will be very unfamiliar to us. Illinois is probably a little more familiar than the Badgers because of quarterback Juice Williams. We did see him and a handful of other guys in 2006, whereas Many of Wisconsin's players were redshirting back then.

Williams is an interesting player. When he is on, the Illini can be one of the best teams in the country. When he is off, the other team often gets the ball in the form of ill-advised passes that turn into interceptions or fumbles. The Illini are quickly entering the realm of Notre Dame and Michigan. They are a team with a superior amount of talent compared to most teams, but that talent grossly underachieves. That sums up Juice Williams in a nutshell, and 2009 is his final chance to impress.

2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5 Big Ten)

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

Someone should let Juice know Anthony Spencer is there to sack and strip the ball from him. Nah, Anthony will do it himself. This is from the 2006 game and it is seconds before Alex Magee recovers a fumble for a huge game-changing TD.

Last Season for the Illini:

This is our least celebrated trophy rivalry. While we play Notre Dame and Indiana each year, Illinois regularly rotates off the schedule. They are technically the closest Big Ten team to West Lafayette, giving reason for the rivalry. Still, they are not a protected rival like Indiana, as Northwestern is our second protected rival. Purdue has a slight three game lead in the Cannon portion of the series thanks to our recent four game winning streak.

Last year was a raging disappointment after Illinois played in Pasadena. It was probably one of the least deserved BCS bowl bids ever, but Illinois did have an impressive 2007 season. It was the Illini's first bowl bid since 2001. Last year was a return to normal for Illinois. A 5-7 finish against a rough schedule has many once again questioning Ron Zook coaching ability.

Would Matt Painter do this?

Illinois really wasn't that far off last year. They played Missouri, Penn State, and Ohio State close in three very tough games. With a bowl bid on the line they folded on the road against Northwestern in the season finale, giving the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk to Northwestern for all time.

Illinois probably plays the manliest non-conference schedule outside of our own. They open in a neutral site game against Missouri again. They then have a home opener against Brock Spack's Illinois State team. Illinois had better hope they have a good Big Ten season, as they finish the year with two tough non-conference games at Big East Champ Cincinnati and at home against Fresno State. Our game comes after a trip to Indiana.

Illinois offense:

The 2008 version of the Illinois offense grossly missed Rashard Mendenhall. After running for a school record 1,681 yards in 2007, no one could match his total. Williams led the team with 719 yards and five touchdowns. Daniel Dufrene tried to replace Mendenhall's production, but added only 663 yards and no touchdowns. Jason Ford didn't have many yards, but he led the team with eight touchdowns as a true freshman. He could see more time in the backfield than Dufrene. Williams has long been a serious rushing threat with over 2,000 yards in his career.

The one knock on Williams has been his passing ability. Yardage-wise, he has always been fine. He will likely leave Illinois as it all-time passing yardage leader, but he has been erratic at best. 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns for 2008 are good. A 57% completion percentage and 16 interceptions are not. Williams has thrown 37 interceptions in 35 career games, so the likelihood of him suddenly cutting down on picks is low. He has actually thrown more interceptions in each successive season so far. The Illini are a better team by far when Williams does not have to throw much.

When he does throw, however, he has perhaps the best receiver in the conference throw to. Arrelious Benn has been almost everything Illinois fans have hoped for the past two seasons. He had 67 catches for 1,055 yards, but only three touchdowns last season. He has just five scores for his career despite impressive numbers elsewhere (sounds like Taylor Stubblefield pre-2004). He has to find the end zone much more often than he has already. Williams has spread his touchdowns around quite a bit. Seven different receivers had at least two scores last season, but no one had more than four. That means there is not one player we can totally focus on in red zone situations. That also makes Williams' rushing ability that much more dangerous.

Illinois must replace its center and left tackle from a line that gave up 25 sacks a year ago. Jon Asamoah at right guard and Jeff Allen at right tackle are both mainstays at 6'5" and 310+ pounds, but the rest of the line is in flux. Eric Block will move from left guard to center. Randall Hunt and Corey Lewis will both be on the left side and each has size at 6'6" and 320+ pounds. We should be able to generate a pass rush, but we have to finish off Williams once we get to him. Of course, to this point we will have faced Chandler Harnish, Jeremiah Masoli, Adam Weber, and Terrelle Pryor. What is one more mobile quarterback?

Illinois Defense:

In CFN's Illinois defensive preview, Pete Fiutak said that Illinois has a tremendous offense and Illinois defense needs to be merely average. I beg to differ. Illinois' offense committed 26 turnovers last year and generated a ton of yards, but not a ton of points. The defense was okay against the pass, but teams ran for more than 150 yards per game against the Illini. It will have to be much better than the merely adequate it was last year. It must also replace linebacker Brit Miller, who led the Illini in virtually every defensive category.

Illinois' defensive line generated 32 sacks, so it could get into the backfield. End Doug Pilcher is the most regular starter that returns, though Josh Brent and Sirod Williams are starters that battled injuries most of the year. Williams and Brent are tackles that should help in run situations. Brent is already on thin ice, however, after an offseason DUI cost him spring practice via suspension. Jerry Brown could also start at the other end position, but his academics are in question.

Martez Wilson is a highly touted recruit that is expected to do even better than Miller and American Hero J Leman at middle linebacker. Wilson played on the outside a year ago and amassed 73 tackles, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries. Illinois has a history of great middle linebackers, and Wilson is expected to be the next one. He'll be joined on the outside by Ian Thomas and Russell Ellington. Both are sophomores with not much experience. Nate Palmer and Justin Staples are both huge linebackers that redshirted last season and could be ready for serious playing time.

Best highlight from our last win over Illinois

The secondary lost a first round pick when the Dolphins drafted cornerback Vontae Davis. He led Illinois in interceptions with just two, but was in on 18 pass break ups. As a whole, Illinois picked off only six passes. Dere Hicks at cornerback and Donsay Hardeman at safety are the only two returning players that had an interception last year. Hardeman is a senior in his second season after being a very promising JUCO transfer last season. With 44 tackles and a pick he is expected to make an even bigger leap in year two. Garrett Edwards and Travon Bellamy should also see some time at safety, especially since Hardeman is recovering from a neck injury.

As a whole, this is a defense that is battling some serious injury and discipline issues. There is talent, but no less than four key players are uncertain because of injury, academics, or discipline. They aren't a group that will pick off a ton of passes and they could be susceptible against the run.

Illinois Special Teams:

Matt Eller is a decent sophomore kicker, hitting 15 of 20 field goals in his rookie year. He was not a weapon on kickoffs though. Illinois gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns and almost 25 yards per return. That means we should be able to get decent field position. The punting was almost equally awful. Opponents averaged 11 yards per return and Anthony Santella averaged less than 40 yards per kick.

In the return game we must keep our eyes on Benn. While he hasn't broken a return for a touchdown, he has the ability to do so. He'll handle both kick and punt return duties. We can't kick away from him on kickoffs, either. A.J. Jenkins averaged 22.3 yards per return with a touchdown last year as the second half of a dangerous return tandem.

Intangibles:

With this game being the seventh on the schedule for the Illini it presents an interesting situation. Illinois has an absolutely brutal slate before this game. The only sure wins are Illinois State and Indiana. There is a very strong chance they will be 2-4 with losses to Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State. That would make our game a must win possibly to save Ron Zook's job.

Personally, I view it a must win for us. If we're going to go bowling we have to get the four most winnable games we play at home against Toledo, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and Illinois. It is probably the biggest swing game we face all year. Win, and we may only need a late season win at Indiana to go to a bowl. Lose, and we'll need a home upset over Michigan State, a road upset at Wisconsin, or an unlikely win at Michigan.

Those two factors are huge. We could have a lot to play for given our coaching situation and expectations, while Illinois may have nothing to play for given theirs. I am still not sold on Zook's coaching talent. Illinois managed to parlay one big upset at Ohio State into a Rose Bowl berth. That is really all they have accomplished as a program since 2001. Even with a talent advantage over most teams they have a worse track record than Notre Dame in terms of developing that talent and getting the most out of it. Of all the programs in the Big Ten, Illinois seems to be the one that has the wildest fluctuations. In this decade alone they have either played in a BCS bowl or no bowl at all. 2009 looks to fit right in with that history. They have the talent to be in the BCS, but the result could be very different.

Game Outlook:

I am excited to see an erratic passer in Juice Williams face off against one of the best secondaries in the Big Ten. I am even more excited that new defensive coordinator Donn Landholm stresses creating turnovers against a team that is turnover prone. Williams has certainly improved since 2006, but that game was a nightmare for him. With an even worse defense than we have now, Williams turned the ball over four times... in five plays.

Offensively, we should have some room to run the ball. All we need to do is give Elliott time to throw and the Illinois secondary isn't known for its tight coverage. I really like or chances going into this game, and it needs to end as a win.

Prediction:

I am not sold on Illinois. Maybe Toki from Hail To The Orange will have some things to say that will convince me otherwise, but I think Illinois is going to have a rough year. It will also cost Ron Zook his job. I think Purdue holds its own at home and gets a step closer to bowl eligibility. Purdue 27, Illinois 21

Illini Football Unit breakdown: Defensive Line.

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:38:32 -0000

We stand at the door step of the month of July. The preview magazines have been released, the freshmen are on campus, and we are all getting ready for purest form of the game: college football. In the interest of getting all of you interested and excited (or pessimistic, depending on the case) about Illini football, HTTO is beginning its coverage of each of the teams units.Who will be the playing, who will be starring and what should we be expecting?

I believe, as the old adage goes, that games are won and lost up front on the lines. With that in mind I will begin with the Defensive and offensive lines and move away from the ball from there. So we begin today with the unit that may be the subject of the most speculation and uncertainty on the entire team. The defensive line.

Projected Starters. I suppose this is the million dollar question isn't it? From a line that lost Derek Walker, David Lindquist and Will Davis, and underperformed its potential last year, things already seem like they might be an uphill battle. Because last year line was supposedly so loaded with talent, but disappointed, Tom Sims, the DL coach was let go. In steps Keith Gilmore into a situation that only gets more complicated. If I had to list the ideal in terms of talent starting defensive line, I would probably list DE's Doug Pilcher and Jerry Brown flanking DTs Sirod Williams and Josh Brent. Why do I say ideal you ask? Well thus far Josh Brent is serving his 60 day jail sentence for DUI and driving on a suspended license, Sirod Williams is recovering from a torn ACL from last summer, and Jerry Brown may not be academically eligible to play. But hey Doug Pilcher is still good right? In the nightmare scenario of all three of these question marks go south, Brown doesn't clear, Sirod's knee isn't 100%, and Brent is suspended or leaves the team, the line could look very, very different. As in Corey Liuget, Antonio James, and whichever heretofore unseen DT wins out at Camp Rantoul.(Uzodinma?) Regardless, the line situation probably wont be all bad, I am sure that probably two out of three of the players in question will make it into the lineup somehow. Even with Sirod and Brent playing you can count of Liuget seeing significant playing time, even if he isn't starting. Clay Nurse and Antonio James too will more than likely play a lot regardless of Brown's situation.

Possible Star. He may not even be a guaranteed starter, but Corey Liuget has the makings of a very good player at 6'3", 290. He played really well last year as a true freshman. He is going to be a starter in 2010, and may overtake Josh Brent or Sirod Williams this year if he makes the big leap every one seems to think he will. He can and will get into the back field and disrupt plays, and he will only get better.

What To Expect? As I said earlier there is alot we still do not know about how this line will look when it takes the field in St Louis. How little we know about the Dline, especially at DT drives amplifies the losses of two former recruiting gems, Reggie Ellis and D'Angelo McCray. What was once perhaps the pride of depth of the defense has suffered an extreme amount of attrition.

Last year at about this time, the defensive line was being touted as perhaps the strongest aspect of the defense, and perhaps one of the better lines in the NCAA. These expectations were soon put to rest as the D line lost Sirod in camp and proceeded to fail to live up to those expectations from just about day 1. The D-line wasn't the only or even the worst problem for the team last year, but not being the strength we thought it was surely played a part in the huge numbers that were put up against the Illini on the ground.

The outcome of last year, along with the attrition since has led me to take a wait and see approach. Defensive Tackle is arguably the most important position in a college defense. Strength here will go a long way in masking other shortcomings on defense, and perhaps result in a stronger defense overall than last year. I will feel alot better if either Josh Brent or Sirod Williams comes through and contributes this fall. A core of DTs with Sirod, Brent and Liuget would be formidable indeed and could result in a stronger inside defense than we saw in all of 2008. With only Pilcher to look forward to as a reliable DE, the position will more than likely see some drop off. But frankly if the line is as strong as it could be up the middle it might not matter all that much. Bob Assmussen recently said that a defense that includes Josh Brent might mean an improvement of 30 yards given up, in the most unlikely scenario of Brown, Sirod and Brent all being cleared, healthy and not suspended, the Defensive Line will be without a doubt the strongest aspect of the defense on paper. Lets hope the expectations aren't so insurmountable this time around.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Bill C. — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Vontae Davis was a stud, and the Illini pass defense was still only decent. What happens without him?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's funny--leaving the Mizzou-Illinois game last year, I was pretty impressed with the Illini defense. I thought Vontae Davis and the Illini D did a wonderful job on Jeremy Maclin (4 catches for 31 yards, 3 carries for 2 yards), and the D-line showed great athletic potential (Derek Walker even yoinked a pick six from Chase Daniel)...but Missouri gained 549 yards and scored 52 points. Illinois teams are perpetually full of athletic potential, but when will they consistently show it?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.81 (#31)
Success Rate+: 108.47 (#35)
PPP+: 116.05 (#35)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.48 (#23)
Passing Downs S&P+: 97.11 (#72)

Redzone S&P+: 91.85 (#84)

Q1 S&P+: 98.39 (#69)
Q2 S&P+: 127.72 (#13)
Q3 S&P+: 127.47 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 98.68 (#64)

1st Down S&P+: 110.71 (#28)
2nd Down S&P+: 107.69 (#43)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.46 (#34)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 110.80 (#39)
Rushing SR+: 107.23 (#40)
Rushing PPP+: 115.79 (#37)

Standard Downs: 118.50 (#23)
Passing Downs: 76.95 (#109)

Redzone: 107.94 (#44)

Line Yards+: 111.81 (#26)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 109.31 (#34)
Passing SR+: 106.65 (#36)
Passing PPP+: 112.42 (#38)

Standard Downs: 104.58 (#48)
Passing Downs: 107.03 (#49)

Redzone: 74.39 (#115)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#10)

In all, this really wasn't too bad a defense--Top 40 overall, against the run, and against the pass. But breakdowns killed them. They gave up far too many big plays on Passing Downs--they were just about the worst in the country about giving up big runs on Passing Downs, which suggests that either a) they were worried about the secondary and tried to give them help against the pass, leaving them vulnerable to draws and runs, or b) this just isn't a very smart defense. I don't know the answer--will leave that up to you. Beyond that, they were also very poor in the redzone, and their splits were all over the place--they were great in Q2 and Q3...and below average in Q1 and Q4. Figure them out, I dare you.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#2 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Josh Brent (DT, 6'2, 315, Jr.)
Doug Pilcher (DE, 6'5, 265, Sr.)
Corey Liuget (DT, 6'3, 290, So.)
Jerry Brown (DE, 6'4, 265, Jr.)
Sirod WIlliams (DT, 6'0, 295, Sr.)
Daryle Ballew (DT, 6'1, 310, So.)
Antonio James (DE, 6'5, 255, Sr.)
Clay Nurse (DE, 6'3, 260, Jr.)

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #60 in the nation (#8 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Martez Wilson (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Russell Ellington (6'2, 225, So.)
Ian Thomas (6'0, 225, So.)
Dustin Jefferson (6'0, 240, Jr.)
Aaron Gress (6'0, 230, Jr.)
Justin Staples (6'4, 225, RSFr.)

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

Meanwhile...yeah, that's about all they've got. Gress and Staples are newbies, and Ellington, Thomas and Jefferson did next to nothing last year. Maybe there's a sleeper in here somewhere...and maybe not.

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #38 in the nation (#6 in the Big Ten)

Projected Depth Chart
Donsay Hardeman (FS, 6'2, 210, Sr.)
Bo Flowers (SS, 6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dere Hicks (CB, 5'10, 175, Sr.)
Travon Bellamy (FS, 6'0, 205, Jr.)
Tavon Wilson (CB, 6'0, 195, So.)
Ashante Williams (CB, 5'10, 195, RSFr)
Garrett Edwards (SS, 6'2, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Gully (CB, 6'1, 180, Jr.)

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Rankings: #113 Net Punting, #94 Punt Returns, #63 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K - Matt Eller (So., 39-41 PATs, 15-20 FGs)
P - Anthony Santella (Jr., 53 punts, 31.6 net punting)
PR - Arrelious Benn (Jr., 15 returns, 7.6 average)
KR - A.J. Jenkins (So., 22 returns, 22.3 average, 1 TD)

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Summary

Really, this game might come down to the matchup of Mizzou's OL versus the Illini DL. If Blaine Gabbert doesn't have to run for his life, and if Derrick Washington is finding holes through which to run, Mizzou will score a lot of points. If the UI line can't put pressure on the Mizzou offense, I'm not sure the back seven can. Who knows--maybe there are some playmakers in there somewhere; but right now I don't know who they might be. Pilcher, Brown, Brent, and Liuget really could be solid up front, and if Dan Hoch has a rough first game, or if they're just able to confuse the Mizzou OL like Oklahoma State did, then Illinois could get enough stops to win the game. But to the extent that I'm confident about this game, it's because I'm not sure the Illinois D can do enough to take advantage of Mizzou's offensive youth.

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Projections on Friday.

Poll

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

5 votes

LB Martez Wilson

8 votes

DE Jerry Brown

3 votes

FS Donsay Hardeman

0 votes

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

39 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:00:07 -0000

Can you feel it? That's right...BTBS is back in your life...

Missouri		Illinois
	% Close* = 71.07%
	TOTAL
82	Plays	77
34.91	EqPts	34.13
45.1%	Success Rate	40.3%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.44
0.877	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.846

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
73	Plays	40
30.55	EqPts	10.55
45.2%	Success Rate	32.5%
0.42	PPP	0.26
0.871	S&P	0.589

	RUSHING
16.11	EqPts	5.40
47.2%	Success Rate	36.7%
0.45	PPP	0.18
0.920	S&P	0.547

	PASSING
18.80	EqPts	28.73
43.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.41	PPP	0.61
0.843	S&P	1.037

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.4%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.48	PPP	0.47
0.926	S&P	0.919

	PASSING DOWNS
46.4%	Success Rate	30.4%
0.32	PPP	0.37
0.783	S&P	0.674

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
5.45	Points Lost **	4.85
7.85	Points Given ***	8.27
13.29	Total T/O Pts	13.12
-0.17	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.17

* % close = the % of plays in the game that took place when the score was within two possessions. It gives you a different way of looking how tight the game really was. If a team scores two late TDs against scrubs and only loses by 14, the game may look like it was competitive, but "% of plays' will show that it probably wasn't. On the other hand, if a game is within 3 points with two minutes to go, and the leader scores two late TDs, the score won't indicate how tight the game really was.

** Points Lost = the combined points lost via turnover, as determined by the point value of the team's starting field position. Example: Sean Weatherspoon's first INT took place with Illinois at Mizzou's 29. The Mizzou 29 was worth 3.41 EqPts, meaning Illinois "lost" 3.41 points on the play.

*** Points Given = the combined points handed to the other team via turnover, as determined by the point value of the resulting field position. Example: Back to Weatherspoon's first INT--it resulted in Mizzou starting at their own 26, which is worth 1.27 EqPts. So Illinois "gave" Mizzou 1.27 points on the play. And obviously both Pick Sixes were worth 7 "points given".

Analysis after the jump.

Special Teams won the game for Mizzou

So it's pretty clear that the difference here was in special teams. Jeremy Maclin had the kick return TD and set up Tommy Saunders' 2nd TD with a long punt return, plus Jeff Wolfert banged a long FG. That alone accounts for the difference on the scoreboard.

That, and...

Mizzou's defense was stellar while the game was close

While the overall EqPts score was almost dead even (34.91 to 34.13 for Mizzou), close game stats told the tale. Mizzou's S&P was pretty much exactly the same whether the game was close or not (0.877 overall, 0.871 close), but Illinois did almost all of their damage when Mizzou had a lead of 17 or more. They only managed a 32.5% success rate and 0.589 S&P when the game was actually in the balance, and just like last year, when they game tightened up, the Mizzou defense (especially Sean Weatherspoon and Stryker Sulak) ratcheted up the intensity and quality of play.

So despite the evenness on the EqPts scorecard, Mizzou's close-game play (and the fact that almost 30% of the game was played with Mizzou having a lead of 17 points or more) shows who deserved to win this game.

Projections vs Performance

Mizzou Rushing

Projected: 12.00
Actual: 16.11 (+4.11)

Mizzou Passing

Projected: 18.00
Actual: 18.80 (+0.80)

Illinois Rushing

Projected: 11.00
Actual: 5.40 (-5.60)

Illinois Passing

Projected: 9.00
Actual: 28.73 (+19.73)

Mizzou had one weakness on defense: stopping the long-ball to the right side. It's a throw Juice Williams makes as good or better than anybody in the country (he just can't throw a slant), and power to UI for finding the hole and exploiting it.

Revisiting the Key Players for Illinois

RB Daniel Dufrene

Daniel Dufrene: 13 carries, 3.15 EqPts, 30.8% success rate, 0.24 PPP, 0.550 S&P. Granted, he made himself useful with another 1.19 EqPts receiving, but Illinois was completely unable to establish the ground game, so...FAIL.

RG Jon Asamoah

Ziggy Hood: 2.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 50.0% success rate.

Ziggy was in the backfield quite a bit, but Juice was able to avoid him. His stats weren't great, but Mizzou's DTs were able to blow up the middle of line repeatedly, especially on runs. So I'm going to say slight fail for Asamoah.

DE's Will Davis, Doug Pilcher, Derek Walker and Jerry Brown

Will Davis: 3.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 58.3% success rate
Doug Pilcher: 3.0 successful tackles (1.0 TFL), 75.0% success rate
Derek Walker: 1.5 successful tackles, 100.0% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)
Jerry Brown: 1.5 successful tackles (0.5 TFL), 100.0% success rate

COMBINED: 9.5 successful tackles (2.0 TFL), 73.1% success rate (1 INT FOR TD)

The Pick Six from Walker was nice, obviously--he read the play perfectly and got to the endzone untouched. But the 2.0 TFL and 0.0 sacks were far less than what was expected from this unit. The only sack all night was a coverage sack, and really they didn't even hurry Chase Daniel all that much. If not for Walker's TD, this would have clearly been the biggest FAIL of the night. Big, big ups to the Mizzou O-line, particularly tackles Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown, for their bigtime play.

WR Arrelious Benn

Benn: 7 catches, 4.34 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 0.62 PPP, 1.334 S&P. Decent, but rather unimpressive considering he had only a 0.960 S&P while the game was close. His end-of-game totals ended up solid, but he was anything but a game-changer, and he did nothing in the return game as well. Fail.

Revisiting the Key Players for Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Washington: 19 carries, 11.26 EqPts, 47.4% success rate, 0.59 PPP,1.067 S&P. He more than doubled Illinois' EqPts output by himself. SUCCESS.

WRs Jared Perry, Tommy Saunders, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp

Jared Perry: 5 catches, 3.83 EqPts
Tommy Saunders: 6 catches, 6.50 EqPts (and a fumble)

The freshmen did nothing (though Andrew Jones did have a catch), and Maclin (4 catches, 1.25 EqPts) was blanketed all night, but the two unheralded veterans came through. Granted, Saunders' fumble cost Mizzou a few points, but he balanced those out with the Q3 TDs. Success.

OLs Elvis Fisher, Ryan Madison, Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, Colin Brown

They gave up 1 sack, and Derrick Washington dominated. Success.

S Justin Garrett

Justin Garrett: 2.5 successful tackles, 45.5% success rate. Solid for a safety. But he also had at least one horrific bite on a pump fake. And Juice Williams nearly doubled his career best for passing yards in a game. Nobody gets a Success for that. Fail.

Bottom Line

Bottom line: BTBS projected a 10-point win, and we won by 10. So there should be little to complain about. But here's the thing: if you'd told me that a) Mizzou's O-line would dominate Illinois' D-line, b) Mizzou's D-line would dominate Illinois' O-line, c) Sean Weatherspoon would have 2 INTs, d) Stryker Sulak would have 3 sacks, e) Illinois' rushing offense would post a putrid S&P, f) Mizzou would dominate in special teams (and Jake Harry wouldn't suck), and g) Derrick Washington would go off, I'd have thought we'd have won by 30.

Again, Mizzou showed only one weakness*: the secondary opposite Carl Gettis. And I think the personnel is in place (and so is the schedule) to fix that weakness.

If you wanted to add a second weakness to the list, I guess the blitzes really were pretty ineffective (though that's counteracted by the two starting DEs putting up 4 sacks on their own).

So in all, this is still a pretty satisfying win. Mizzou dominated the last three quarters when the game was actually within reach for both teams. And man oh man did the offense look good, especially in Q2 and Q3. Illinois is the 2nd- or 3rd-most athletic/talented team on the schedule, and the Close-Game S&P margin was 0.871 to 0.589 for Mizzou. That's a really, really good sign for the rest of the year.

SB Nation - Jerry Brown

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

Know thy Opponent 2009: Illinois Fighting Illini

Illini Football Unit breakdown: Defensive Line.

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Preview: The Defense

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Who's most likely to disrupt Mizzou's plans for a 1-0 start?

DT Josh Brent

LB Martez Wilson

DE Jerry Brown

FS Donsay Hardeman

The Illinois offense scoring a whole bunch

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Illinois